From NBC's Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg, and Sarah Blackwill
If it’s Friday, it’s time another First Read Top 10 list -- this time, we take yet another look at what we consider our favorite TV ads this cycle.
10. Dear God: In this ad, it’s unclear whether Zack Wamp (R) is running for Tennessee governor or preacher. (“I believe God is the center of the universe. He made us to serve him and to serve others.”) But it comes after primary opponent Ron Ramsey referred to Islam a “cult.”
9. Pamela, get your gun: This ad, which shows Arizona congressional candidate Pamela Gorman taking aim at actual targets -- instead of her opponents -- makes our list again.
8. Scott hammers McCollum: This sort of ad is one of the big reasons why Rick Scott now leads Bill McCollum in Florida’s GOP gubernatorial primary.
7. The Man with the Dragon Tattoo: Norm Coleman’s American Action Network is running some provocative ads. This one targets Charlie Crist -- with the help of a tattoo artist.
6. One of these days these shoes are goin’ walk all over you: And here’s the American Action Network’s ad against Washington Sen. Patty Murray, which uses her iconic tennis shoes against her.
5. Meek fires at Greene… : Down in the polls to Jeff Greene in Florida’s Democratic Senate race, Kendrick Meek highlights one Greene’s weaknesses: He made his money off subprime loans.
4. … and Greene fires back: Here’s Greene’s response: Meek is “corrupt” and “crooked.”
3. Is he “man enough”? In this ad, Colorado Senate candidate Jane Norton questions primary opponent Ken Buck's manhood (“You think Ken would be man enough to do it himself”). Buck later said this in response to a question why a voter should vote for Buck: “Because I do not wear high heels.”
2. Being Blunt about President Obama: With Obama’s approval rating in the 30s in the onetime battleground state of Missouri, Senate candidate Roy Blunt (R) has taken the lead in his race against Robin Carnahan (D) by tying Carnahan to Obama, like in this ad.
1. Demon sheep: The one and the only…

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
If it’s Friday, it’s time for another Top 10 list -- this time we look at what we consider our 10 favorite House races (because they’re competitive or they tell a story, or they’re just interesting).

1. WA-3: This open seat might the purest of toss-up seats. It’s only one of nine districts in the country with a Cook PVI of +0, meaning it doesn’t traditionally favor either party. Obama won it, and so did Bush. As the quintessential swing district -- in a Dem-leaning state -- it could be a good measure of where the country is.
2. VA-5: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello has done something most endangered Democrats haven't done -- stood up for the Obama agenda. The problem for him: It’s a relatively conservative district.
3. FL-8: Alan Grayson -- he's loud, he's controversial, he's got a lot of cash. And it’s all taking place in swing seat right in the heart of the Florida I-4 corridor.
4. WI-7: Running for David Obey's seat is a former “Real World” cast member, Sean Duffy, who also happens to be a world-record pole climber (seriously). Since his “Real World” days, he went to law school and is now a district attorney and serious candidate. But Democrats still like their chances.
5. NY-23: Elected House Republicans are nearly extinct in Upstate New York. Because of intra-party fighting, Democrats flipped NY-23 in '09. Does incumbent Bill Owens (D) hang on?
6. MO-4: The quintessential majority-maker district. If we see Rep. Ike Skelton (D) fall on election night, Republicans are probably taking back the House.
7. OH-1: The rematch. In ’08, Steve Driehaus (D) defeated incumbent Steve Chabot (R), in large part due to African-American turnout. Now Chabot wants his old seat back, in a cycle when Obama won’t be on the ballot. Oh, and it’s taking place in battleground Ohio.
8. TX-17: Does any district better tell the story of a resilient Democrat in a conservative district? Year after year, Republicans target Chet Edwards. And year after year, he wins. What about this time, in this climate?
9. KS-3: Dennis Moore (D) may have retired, but there will be another Moore on the ballot to replace him -- his wife.
10. FL-25: Will Lincoln Diaz-Balart going to run for his brother's more solid Miami-area seat backfire on Republicans?

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
If it's Friday, it means another First Read Top 10 list. This time, we look at the Top 10 states to watch in 2010 -- based on the number of good races, and also what they might tell us about the overall political environment and the emerging 2012 race. The number in parentheses is our last ranking from February.

1. Florida (3): This swing state probably best tells the story of 2010. It has competitive Senate, House and gubernatorial races; it now features two competitive statewide primaries (McCollum vs. Scott, and Meek vs. Greene); it tests the strength and perhaps weakness of the Tea Party (will Rubio win?); and it will measure the appeal of an independent candidate (Crist).
2. Colorado (2): This state has it all, too -- presidential swing state, competitive Dem Senate primary (Bennet vs. Romanoff), and an establishment vs. anti-establishment GOP Senate primary (Norton vs. Buck). And now there’s a plagiarism scandal that is throwing the gubernatorial race into chaos.
3. Ohio (1): Having Ohio third on this list tells you how many great state-based stories there are this midterm cycle. As in Florida and Colorado, the Buckeye State features competitive Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. And, of course, it’s probably the nation’s premiere presidential battleground state.
4. Nevada (5): The contests in this western swing state will tell us: 1) Will Harry Reid go the way of Tom Daschle? 2) Can Sharron Angle win in a state that Obama won by more than 12 percentage points? 3) Can two Reids (Harry and Rory) co-exist on the Dem ballot? and 4) Will the GOP get a Latino governor in Brian Sandoval?
5. California (10): In presidential contests, California is often an afterthought. But that’s not the case in midterms, and the state this year features a competitive gubernatorial race (Brown vs. Whitman), a competitive Senate contest (Boxer vs. Fiorina), and money -- lots of it.
6. Pennsylvania (8): Here’s another state with a key Senate contest (Sestak vs. Toomey), a gubernatorial race (Corbett vs. Onorato), and a few competitive House match-ups. What’s more, President Obama’s approval ratings have plummeted in this state that he won by 10 percentage points. According to Quinnipiac, his approval rating is now upside down at 46%-49%.
7. Illinois (4): President Obama’s old Senate seat is up for grabs (Giannoulias vs. Kirk), and the governor’s race is a hot one (Quinn vs. Brady). And they’re taking place smack in the middle of the Blago trial.
8. Indiana (unranked): A state Obama won in 2008 looks like it’s trending back toward Republicans. But keep an eye on the race to replace Evan Bayh, which could be a sleeper for Democrats (or a pick up for Republicans). Plus, people often ask: How’s it playing in Peoria? Come 2012, they’ll be asking: How’s it playing in Elkhart?
9. Arizona (unranked): Illegal immigration -- and the battle against it -- has turned this state into a political hotbed. And the passage of Arizona’s controversial anti-illegal immigration law transformed Gov. Jan Brewer into a conservative celebrity and a possible shoo-in for victory in November. Oh, and don’t forget that one of the Republicans who led the charge for comprehensive immigration reform -- John McCain -- is up for re-election and running to the right in his GOP primary battle against J.D. Hayworth.
10. New Mexico (unranked): GOP strength in the West, as we’ve pointed out, could come because of women. And in this swing state where Hispanics outnumber any other ethnic group (44% to 42% of whites), Republicans hope gubernatorial nominee Susana Martinez will beat out Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Bill Richardson (D). There’s also a highly competitive House race in which former Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is hoping to get his old seat back from freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D).

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
If it’s Friday, it’s time for another First Read Top 10 list. Today, we look at what we consider the top issues playing out in midterm races across the country. The number in parentheses is our ranking from last month.

1. Washington/anti-establishment (1): This week, South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis (R) became the fifth incumbent to lose a primary for re-election, and Gresham Barrett (R) became the third sitting senator or member of Congress to lose a bid for higher office. And check out this number from our current NBC/WSJ poll: just 26% say they are comfortable with a candidate who has served in Congress for more than 10 years.

2. Economy/jobs (3): This is still the overarching issue in campaigns across the country, and we're seeing it in TV ads like this one from Connecticut GOP Senate candidate Linda McMahon.

3. TARP/bailouts (4): How toxic are those 2008 TARP votes? Consider that all the members of Congress who have lost their primaries either for re-election or for higher office -- save one, who wasn't serving in Congress at the time -- voted for TARP. And another who voted for it, Blanche Lincoln, only narrowly won her primary earlier this month.

4. Barack Obama (6): Although his declining poll numbers still don't compare to Bush's in '06, Obama remains a key midterm issue, especially in the remaining GOP primaries where the candidates are trying to prove who is more conservative.

5. Social Security (unranked): As we turn to the general election, we're already seeing Democrats pounce on Republicans who have advocated privatizing or phasing out Social Security -- like Harry Reid in this TV ad against Sharron Angle. In our NBC/WSJ poll, wanting to phase out Social Security was the worst candidate attribute one could have.

6. Afghanistan/national security (10): Last month, this was at the bottom of our list. Now it's moved up after this week's McChrystal/Petraues news. In fact, check out this Web ad by Colorado Senate candidate Jane Norton, which aired before this weeks' developments.

7. Oil spill (unranked): Now that the spill has gone on for two months -- with no immediate end in sight -- candidates across the country, but especially in Gulf states, are having to respond to this issue. And it has given some candidates, like Charlie Crist, important leadership moments.

8. Competence (8): This remains an issue, whether it's the ex-governors (Barnes, Branstad, Brown, Kitzhaber) running for their old offices, or the female CEOs (Fiorina, McMahon, Whitman) on the campaign trail.

9. Immigration (5): As time has passed since Arizona passed its controversial immigration law, this topic has moved down our list. But it's still an issue -- as this Spanish-language TV ad by Meg Whitman suggests, in which Whitman tries to moderate her stance with Hispanics in the state.

10. Health care (7): Three months ago, when the health care bill passed Congress, few would have predicted this issue would be No. 10 on our list. But poll numbers like this from our NBC/WSJ poll -- a Democratic candidate who supports giving the law a chance beats a Republican calling for repeal, 51%-44% -- is one reason why the issue is no longer resonating as much as it once did.