• Hey, big spender: Majority of TV ad money going to FL, VA, OH

    Obama camp single-biggest spender, but outside conservative groups spent more

    By Domenico Montanaro, Deputy Political Editor, NBC News

    So far, for the general election, $108 million has been spent on TV ads by the presidential campaigns and outside groups, according to an analysis by NBC/SMG Delta.

    Just 16 states have seen any spending since the end of the GOP primary, and the lion’s share of that has been concentrated in just 10 battleground states.

    Nearly $6 out of every $10 spent so far have been in a trifecta of states that could very likely determine the outcome of the presidency – Florida, Virginia, and Ohio.

    About 40 percent has been by the Obama campaign.

    Here are the 10 states seeing the most spending, through June 5th:

    1. Florida $22.1 million
    2. Virginia $20.8 million
    3. Ohio $19.3 million
    4. North Carolina $10.1 million
    5. Colorado $7.4 million
    6. Iowa $7.4 million
    7. Pennsylvania $6.7 million
    8. Nevada $6.6 million
    9. New Hampshire $4.4 million
    10. Michigan $3.4 million

    (No other state has seen more than $336,000 spent, the amount spent in New Mexico.)

    The biggest spender so far – no surprise – in those battlegrounds is the Obama campaign, with $41.5 million poured into TV. (The Romney campaign has spent $7.4 million.)

    But outside conservative groups combined – not including the Romney campaign -- have outspent the Obama campaign there with $49.6 million.

    Here’s how the spenders break down:

    1. Obama $41.5 million
    2. Crossroads GPS $24.5 million
    3. Americans for Prosperity $13.3 million
    4. Priorities USA and Priorities/League of Conservation Voters $8.2 million
    5. Romney $7.4 million
    6. America’s Future Fund 4.5 million
    7. Restore Our Future $4.1 million
    8. American Energy Alliance $3.2 million
    9. Planned Parenthood $1.4 million

  • First Read's Top 10 Senate takeovers

    From The NBC Political Unit
    With the news that DNC Chairman and former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) is “increasingly likely” to run in Virginia and Rep. Dean Heller (R) getting into the Nevada race, we thought we’d bring you another Senate Top 10, our second of the year. (Numbers in parentheses represent its previous ranking.)

    Republicans need to flip three seats to take control of the Senate. Eight of our Top 10 are Democratic-held seats.

    1. North Dakota (D) (1): Still No. 1 and probably be there for a while with Sen. Kent Conrad’s (D) decision to retire.

    2. Nebraska (D) (3): Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is the most vulnerable incumbent in the country and is going to get a strong GOP challenger. Nelson was ranked the most conservative Democrat in the Senate in 2010, but Republicans hope the bad press Nelson received for the “Cornhusker Kickback” during the health-care debate will be the boost they need. The GOP challengers: Jon Bruning (state attorney general) and Don Stenberg (state treasurer). By the way, this would be Stenberg’s fourth (!) run at the Senate seat. Nelson is happy about Stenberg's entrance if only to keep the GOP primary active.

    3. Montana (D) (4): Freshman Democrat Jon Tester has been highlighting spending cutbacks, but he could still face an uphill battle. He narrowly won in 2006 against a flawed candidate, and he faces a real Republican challenger in Rep. Denny Rehberg. Notice Rehberg was minding his right flank with his NO vote on the C.R.

    4. Missouri (D) (6): Sen. Claire McCaskill has worked to carve out a role as a Truman-esque watchdog in the Senate, but her constituents – especially independents -- haven’t rewarded her efforts with robust approval ratings. A recent tough news story about her use of taxpayer money for private planes will be fodder for attacks. Remember, the issue for McCaskill is that most Missourians don't fly on private planes, period, no matter who pays for it.

    5. Virginia (D) (5): Political junkies are smiling at the thought of a matchup between former Gov. Tim Kaine and ’06 Senate race loser George Allen (who’ll have to beat back a Tea Party primary challenge). We’ve already predicted a 51%-49% race, and we’re stickin’ to it with the presidential winner carrying the senate nominee.

    6. New Mexico (D) (unranked): Jeff Bingaman’s retirement puts this seat in play, but it could be a tough get for Republicans in a state that swung for Obama in 2008. Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is considered the strongest GOP candidate but will likely face a thorny path through the primary to the general election.

    7. Nevada (R) (2): Finally, we get to a Democratic target. Heller’s entrance gave Republicans a much better chance at holding this seat than if John Ensign stayed in the race. A Democratic candidate has yet to emerge. Do Democrats face a crowded primary or can they clear the field for a one-on-one with Heller? In a presidential year, this is going to be a hotly contested battleground with the president trying to mobilize the Hispanic base that makes up 27% of the state’s electorate.

    8. Massachusetts (R) (7): This is probably potentially Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. But Scott Brown (R) remains the most popular politician in the state. As the campaign heats up and a Democratic opponent emerges does some of that start to change in this reliably blue state?

    9. Florida (D) (8): Like Nevada and Ohio, there is going to be a lot of activity in this state in a presidential year. Can Bill Nelson hang on in the state that elected Rick Scott (R) governor in 2010?

    10. Michigan (D) (9): Is Obama’s campaigning in the state going to be enough to put Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over the finish line? A poll out at the end of February showed her only beating Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) by two percentage points.

    Other Senate races on our radar (in alphabetical order): AZ, CT, IN (does Lugar survive a primary), ME (ditto for Olympia Snowe), NJ (Menendez’s race in ’06 was very tight), OH (Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) poll numbers look good right now. But a lot can change in this key presidential state), PA, TX (Dems always think they can play here because of the demographic changes, but the bench is really thin), WA, WI (does Herb Kohl retire?), WV.

  • Top 'shiny metal objects' of 2010

    Here are some of what we like to call “shiny metal objects," some of the most distracting moments of 2010. Thoughts? Did we miss any? Vote for the shiniest of shiny metal objects in our live poll at right.

    - Christine O’Donnell wins/loses, FBI opens criminal probe
    - Sarah Palin’s endorsements/Sarah Palin’s Twitter/Facebook postings
    - Shirley Sherrod “controversy”
    - Sharron Angle
    - Carl Paladino
    - Sue Lowden: Chickens to the doctor
    - Kirsten Gillibrand “challenger”
    - Obama-Clinton 2012 ticket
    - The mosque controversy
    - TSA pat downs
    - James O’Keefe takes New Orleans
    - Obama’s “$200 million a day” India trip
    - The “public option”
    - Bill Halter
    - Eric Massa
    - Liz Cheney criticisms
    - Criticism of START (wound up passing overwhelmingly)
    - Alan Grayson
    - Anthony Weiner
    - Jerry Brown's 'whore' comment
    - Meg Whitman's housekeeper

  • Top events/moments of 2010

    Below is a look back at some of the things that happened in 2010 (in somewhat chronological order). What did we miss? And take our live poll at right on what you think was the most significant moment of 2010. Check out our next post of "Shiny Metal Objects of the year."

    - Scott Brown elected
    - Guantanamo remains open
    - Baby killer shouted during health care debate
    - Health care reform passed, signed
    - Financial regulation passed, signed
    - BP oil spill
    - Greece riots
    - Afghanistan casualties rise
    - Bob Bennett loses
    - Sestak beats Specter, loses to Toomey
    - Blanche Lincoln wins, then loses
    - Elena Kagan sworn in
    - Iraq drawdown
    - Glenn Beck rally/Jon Stewart/Colbert rally
    - Tea Party outrage/Republicans take back the House; Boehner to be speaker
    - Harry Reid wins
    - Charlie Rangel censured
    - Rahm Emanuel leaves White House to run for Chicago mayor
    - Wiki, wiki, wiki-leaks of diplomatic cables
    - Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell repealed
    - Joe Miller wins primary, then loses
    - Lisa Murkowski, loses primary, then wins first write-in campaign for Senate since 1954

  • First Read’s Top 10 Senate takeovers

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    If it’s Friday, it’s time for another First Read Top 10 list, and today we look at what we consider the most likely Senate seats to switch parties next month. The number in parentheses is our ranking from last month.

    1. North Dakota (1): We’ve finally run out of puns to signal that John Hoeven (R) is coming to Washington. SOLID R.
    2. Arkansas (2): The buzz we’re hearing is that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is making up ground against John Boozman (R). But the kind of ground we’re talking about is turning a 20-point race into a 10-point race. PROBABLE R.
    3. Indiana (3): How important is a political environment in deciding races who wins races? Consider that if this was ’06 or ’08, Dan Coats (R) probably would lose and Brad Ellsworth (D) would win. But the opposite is likely to take place in November of ’10. PROBABLE R.
    4. Wisconsin (8): A recent Russ Feingold (D) ad bemoans celebrating in the end zone before the game is over. But in his race against Ron Johnson (R), Feingold right now is down by two scores with five minutes left. LEAN R.
    5. Pennsylvania (4): As we mentioned yesterday, Joe Sestak (D) is gaining ground on Pat Toomey (R). Natural tightening? Or déjà vu to early May, when Sestak began to close on Arlen Specter? LEAN R.
    6. Colorado (6): The public polls we’ve seen show Ken Buck (R) leading Sen. Michael Bennet (D), but Democrats say their internals have Bennet ahead. TOSS UP.
    7. Illinois (5): Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Mark Kirk (R) might be the purest 50%-50% out there. Kirk’s advantage: the national political environment. Alexi’s: the Democratic-leaning state. But make no mistake: Both are very flawed candidates. TOSS UP.
    8. Nevada (7): Just like in Illinois, we have no idea who’ll win this Senate race -- Harry Reid (D) or Sharron Angle (R). Did last night’s debate change things? TOSS UP.
    9. West Virginia (unranked): Joe Manchin’s (D) campaign has done everything it can to seize on last week’s “hicky” controversy, as well as put distance between himself and national Democrats. But Manchin is in a dog fight against John Raese (R). TOSS UP.
    10. Washington (10): Recent public polling has Sen. Patty Murray (D) ahead of Dino Rossi (R). But this is going to be close, which of course is nothing new to Rossi, who barely lost his bid for governor in ’04. TOSS UP.

    Nos. 11-21: California (Lean D), Kentucky (Lean R), Missouri (Lean R), Connecticut (Lean D), Alaska (Lean R), Florida (Lean R), New Hampshire (Lean R), Ohio (Lean R), Delaware (Probable D), North Carolina (Probable R), Louisiana (Probable R).

  • First Read's Top 10 TV ads

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    If it's Friday, it's time for another Top 10 list -- this time our look at what we consider the best (and most buzz-worthy) TV ads.

    10. Flagged for excessive celebration: This Russ Feingold (D) spot might be the first TV ad we've ever seen featuring Randy Moss or someone mooning his audience. But it drives home the point that his opponents shouldn't be dancing in the end zone until the game is over. Problem for Feingold: The NFL asked him to remove the footage of Moss' faux moon, and his campaign said it will edit the ad.
    9. All tied up: Scott McAdams' (D) first ad -- which showed him trying on all kinds of neckties, including Ted Stevens' famous Incredible Hulk tie -- garnered plenty of attention and highlighted his quest to "tie" himself to the state's late senator.
    8. Oh no, he's got a case of the Twitters: This Chuck Grassley (R) ad makes us laugh out loud every time. It starts with one older woman saying, "I heard Chuck Grassley has … a Twitter." Another woman interjects, "Oh, can it be cured?" Then Grassley appears: Oh, not that kind… I'll Tweet. I'll text. I'll do whatever it takes." (Our question: What, exactly, did that woman think Twitter was?)
    7. Hook(er), line, and sinker: From Twitter to Vitter… This two-minute Charlie Melancon (D) goes there -- bringing up opponent David Vitter's (R) prostitution scandal. (Trivia: Which of your First Read authors made a cameo appearance in this ad ? Although, the cameo appears to have been removed.)
    6. HP, yeah you know me: This Barbara Boxer (D) ad is one of the toughest we've seen -- blasting opponent Carly Fiorina (R) for laying off thousands at Hewlett Packard and shipping those jobs overseas.
    5. "I worked so hard to get that title": Here is Fiorina's response ad, which revisits Boxer dressing down a general who called her "ma'am" instead of "senator." Says Fiorina: "Twenty-eight years in Washington, and Barbara Boxer works hard for a title?"
    4. Maid in America: Staying with California, this SEIU independent expenditure Spanish-language TV ad draws blood on Meg Whitman's housekeeper/nanny problem.
    3. Taliban Dan: Love him or hate him, but Alan Grayson sure knows how to run provocative TV ads -- like this one, which calls his opponent Dan Webster "Taliban Dan." As provocative as it was, independent fact-checkers had plenty of problems with the ad.
    2. Gettin' 'hicky' with it: This NRSC ad -- which features three supposed West Virginia residents criticizing Obama and alleging that Joe Manchin (D) does whatever Obama wants -- has received plenty of attention. But not necessarily good attention: The men were actors found by a casting agency who wanted a "'hicky' blue-collar look." The ad has since been pulled.
    1. "I'm not a witch": This is No.1 on our list, because we'll probably never see another political candidate speak to the camera in an ad and say, "I'm not a witch." She adds, "I'm nothing you've heard. I'm you."

  • First Read’s Field of 64

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    In lieu of our normal weekly First Read Top 10, we’re running our updated Field of 64, the list of the 64 House seats we consider most likely to switch parties in the fall. (No. 1, for instance, is the seat we consider most likely to flip.) For Republicans to take back the House, they need to pick up a NET of 39 seats. (So if Democrats are able to win three or four GOP seats, as they’re hoping to do, then Republicans must win 42 or 43 Democratic seats.) Political journalists and junkies: Clip and save this list, because it gives you a good idea of where the House battlefield is and whether or not Republicans can reach the number it needs to take back the House. There are 58 Democratic-held seats on this list, and six GOP-held ones.

    1. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon) LIKELY R
    2. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon) LIKELY R
    3. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle) LIKELY D
    4. AR-2 (D-Open-Snyder) LIKELY R
    5. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa) LIKELY R
    6. LA-2 (R-Cao) LEAN D
    7. OH-15 (D-Kilroy) LEAN R
    8. OH-1 (D-Driehaus) LEAN R
    9. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore) LEAN R
    10. CO-4 (D-Markey) LEAN R
    11. FL-24 (D-Kosmas) LEAN R
    12. N-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth) LEAN R
    13. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk) LEAN D
    14. MD-1 (D-Kratovil) LEAN R
    15. VA-5 (D-Perriello) LEAN R
    16. VA-2 (D-Nye) LEAN R
    17. AZ-5 (D-Mitchell) TOSS UP
    18. OH-16 (D-Boccieri) TOSS UP
    19. PA-7 (D-Sestak-Open) TOSS UP
    20. NM-2 (D-Teague) TOSS UP
    21. PA-3 (D-Dahlkemper) TOSS UP
    22. IL-11 (D-Halvorson) TOSS UP
    23. AZ-1 (D-Kirkpatrick) TOSS UP
    24. FL-2 (D-Boyd) TOSS UP
    25. PA-11 (D-Kanjorski) TOSS UP
    26. AR-1 (D-Open-Berry) TOSS UP
    27. FL-8 (D-Grayson) TOSS UP
    28. HI-1 (R-Djou) TOSS UP
    29. PA-8 (D-Murphy) TOSS UP
    30. ND-AL (D-Pomeroy) TOSS UP
    31. SC-5 (D-Spratt) TOSS UP
    32. NV-3 (D-Titus) TOSS UP
    33. MS-1 (D-Childers) TOSS UP
    34. TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner) TOSS UP
    35. TX-17 (D-Edwards) TOSS UP
    36. NH-1 (D-Shea-Porter) TOSS UP
    37. MI-1 (D-Open-Stupak) TOSS UP
    38. NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes) TOSS UP
    39. SD-AL (D-Herseth Sandlin) TOSS UP
    40. MI-7 (D-Schauer) TOSS UP
    41. NY-19 (D-Hall) TOSS UP
    42. WA-3 (D-Open-Baird) TOSS UP
    43. OH-13 (D-Sutton) TOSS UP
    44. WI-8 (D-Kagen) TOSS UP
    45. NY-24 (D-Arcuri) TOSS UP
    46. IN-9 (D-Hill) TOSS UP
    47. IL-14 (D-Foster) TOSS UP
    48. TX-23 (D-Rodriguez) TOSS UP
    49. IL-17 (D-Hare) TOSS UP
    50. CO-3 (D-Salazar) TOSS UP
    51. GA-2 (D-Bishop) TOSS UP
    52. CA-11 (D-McNerney) TOSS UP
    53. WI-7 (D-Obey-Open) TOSS UP
    54. AL-2 (D-Bright) TOSS UP
    55. AZ-8 (D-Giffords) TOSS UP
    56. WV-1 (D- Open-Mollohan) TOSS UP
    57. NM-1 (D-Heinrich) LEAN D
    58. NJ-3 (D-Adler) LEAN D
    59. NC-8 (D-Kissell) LEAN D
    60. GA-8 (D-Marshall) LEAN D
    61. CA-3 (R-Lungren) LEAN R
    62. NY-20 (D-Murphy) LEAN D
    63. FL-25 (R-Diaz-Balart) LEAN R
    64. IA-3 (D-Boswell) LEAN D

  • First Read's Top 10 Senate takeovers

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    *** First Read’s Top 10 Senate Takeovers: Chew on this: Right now, Republicans have a better chance of flipping West Virginia’s Senate seat than Democrats have in picking up the one in Ohio. In fact, this is our first Top 10 Senate takeover list this cycle where we don’t have a single Dem pick-up opportunity. According to this list, Republicans -- right now -- would gain a minimum of five seats. Yet to take control of the chamber, they’d need to win all 10 on the list (or win a substitute outside the Top 10). The number in parentheses is our ranking from last month.

    1. North Dakota (1): Get ready to ho-down with Republican John Hoeven (R); yes, we're running out of Hoeven puns. Ranking: Solid GOP.
    2. Delaware (2): Does Mike Castle (R) survive his primary against Christine O’Donnell (R)? The GOP’s likelihood of winning this seat depends on it. Ranking (with Castle as nominee): Probable GOP.
    3. Arkansas (3): Bill Clinton campaigned this week for incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D), but it’s unlikely to change the dynamics of her race against John Boozman (R). Ranking: Probable GOP.
    4. Indiana (4): Speaking of being able to change the dynamics, Brad Ellsworth (D) hasn’t caught up to Dan Coats (R). Ranking: Probable GOP.
    5. Pennsylvania (5): After being dormant for the last couple of months, Joe Sestak’s (D) campaign has become more active, with Biden and Obama set to stump for him later this month. Right now, though, this is Pat Toomey’s (R) race to lose. Ranking: Lean GOP.
    6. Illinois (7): The Alexi Giannoulias (D)-vs.-Mark Kirk (R) contest remains what we consider to be the truest 50%-50% race out there. Ranking: Toss Up.
    7. Colorado (unranked): The Ken Buck (R)-vs.-Michael Bennet (D) race is close to being a pure 50%-50% race, too. Which force will be greater -- the overall political environment, or the GOP’s woes in the state? Ranking: Toss Up.
    8. Nevada (8): Now we enter the contests where Democrats might have an advantage by a fingernail. But the Harry Reid (D)-vs.Sharron Angle (R) race is going to close. Fasten your seatbelts. Ranking: Toss Up.
    9. Wisconsin (unranked): As was the case in ‘98, Russ Feingold (D) is fighting for his political life. What makes this time more difficult for him is that this political environment is much different than ’98 was. Ranking: Toss Up.
    10. Washington (10): If Republicans indeed catch a wave on Election Night, we’ll be pulling an all-nighter watching the returns from the Patty Murray (D)-vs.-Dino Rossi (R) race. Ranking: Toss Up.

    *** Nos. 11-21 (in order): California (Toss Up), Florida (Toss Up), Missouri (Lean R), Kentucky (Lean R), West Virginia (Lean D), Ohio (Lean R), New Hampshire (Lean R), Connecticut (Lean D), North Carolina (Probable R), Louisiana (Probable R), Alaska (Probable R).

  • Top 10 events shaping the midterm season

    Note: This is the last Friday we scale back our morning note. Below is a fun Top 10 list to read as you take advantage of (hopefully) a long Labor Day weekend. Our morning note will return this coming Tuesday.

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Ali Weinberg
    *** First Read’s Top 10 events that shaped the midterm season: Now less than two months before Election Day, we look at what we consider the Top 10 events that have shaped this midterm season.

    1. Health-care reform signed into law (March 23, 2010): It was a historic event, but -- in the short term -- no issue has been more responsible for energizing Republicans and conservatives in November, and for fueling the charge of government overreach.

    2. Greece riots, Dow plunges 1,000 points before partially recovering (May 6, 2010): As we argued yesterday, this event might have killed all the economic progress the U.S. was making in the first part of the year. What has created more uncertainty for investors and business -- the Obama administration, or that European instability? http://bit.ly/csc8Rp

    3. The Deepwater Horizon explosion (April 20, 2010): This explosion -- and the oil spill it produced -- created an ongoing crisis for the Obama administration, it distracted them from being able to focus on other things (like the economy), and it delivered a psychological blow to the entire country.

    4. Scott Brown's victory (Jan. 19, 2010): The precursor of things to come for Republicans in November? Brown winning Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat displayed GOP energy and enthusiasm. What's more, the Republicans' win eliminated the Dems’ filibuster-proof majority and forced them to spend another two months to pass health care -- which essentially killed the chances to pass energy reform.

    5. Charlie Crist leaves the GOP (April 29, 2010): This was truly the first event signaling that the Tea Party had taken over the GOP. Robert Bennett's loss in Utah loss and wins by Rand Paul in Kentucky and Sharron Angle in Nevada would soon follow.

    6. Obama fires GM’s CEO (March 30, 2009): In retrospect, this move appears to have been a success. But at the time, it furthered the GOP critique that the government was getting too involved in private business.

    7. PA-12 (May 18, 2010): Despite the favorable political climate for them, Republicans lost this special congressional election -- their third-straight loss in a competitive House special since Obama took office. Democrats believe these victories show their strength (and the GOP's weakness) in winning contested House races. Will that play out in November?

    8. Michael Steele's Afghanistan gaffe (July 1, 2010): Here's another hope for Democrats -- the problems at the RNC, an institution that has been essential for the GOP in funding their races and turning out the vote. But this gaffe by Steele -- essentially saying that the war there was a mistake -- was really the last straw for many Republicans, and the GOP heads into November without a strong RNC.

    9. Obama wades into the mosque controversy (Aug. 13, 2010): Democrats also have had their share of distractions, and President Obama wading into the controversy over the mosque near Ground Zero, and then appearing to walk it back the next day, was the latest one -- following the Shirley Sherrod firing and Robert Gibbs’ the-House-is-in-play comment. All of these distractions turned into multi-day stories, knocking Democrats off message.

    10. J.D. Hayworth challenges McCain (Feb. 15, 2010): Had McCain not received a legitimate primary challenge from Hayworth, we might have seen more bipartisanship in the Senate -- if not from McCain then from his friend Lindsey Graham.

  • First Read's Top 10 Governors' Races

    Note: On Fridays during this month of August, we’re scaling back our morning note. But we’re still providing something to read as you head to the beach or take advantage (hopefully) of a long weekend.

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    *** First Read’s Top 10 governor takeovers: If it’s Friday, it’s time for another Top 10 list. Today, we look at what we consider the Top 10 states where a party will win/lose control of a governor’s mansion. The number in parentheses is our last ranking (from June).
    1. Wyoming (1): Matt Mead won the crowded GOP primary on Tuesday, and he’s the overwhelming favorite to replace outgoing Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D).
    2. Kansas (2): Hello, Gov. Sam Brownback (R).
    3. Tennessee (3): It’s Bill Haslam (R) vs. Mike McWherter (D) to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Bredesen, and the moderate Haslam has the edge.
    4. Iowa (7): When Gov. Chet Culver (D) is admitting to mistakes, as he did earlier this week, you know he’s in deep trouble. The GOP nominee is ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R).
    5. Michigan (6): Another GOP moderate, Rick “One Tough Nerd” Snyder (R), won the GOP nomination, and he’s leading in the polls by double digits against Virg Bernero (D).
    6. Hawaii (5): Democrats have a crowded field for the Sept. 18 primary – led by ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie -- but they’re the favorites here.
    7. Oklahoma (4): One thing we know will happen: The Sooner State is going to elect its first female governor -- either Mary Fallin (R) or Jari Askins. Fallin is the favorite in this red state.
    8. Pennsylvania (8): Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is the clear front-runner to succeed term-limited Gov. Ed Rendell (D).
    9. Connecticut (9): Democrats got their stronger candidate, ex-Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), who faces off against former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R).
    10. Minnesota (10): Ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D), who narrowly won this month’s Dem primary, probably has the edge against Tom Emmer (R), but the race to replace retiring Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) could be closer than people think.

    *** First Read’s Gubernatorial ratings:
    Toss Ups (11): CA, FL, GA, IL, MA, MN, NM, OH, WI, RI, VT
    Lean Democrat (5): CT, HI, ME, MD, OR
    Lean Republican (5): IA, MI, OK, PA, TX
    Probable Democrat (1): CO
    Probable Republican (6): AL, AZ, ID, SC, NV, TN
    Solid Democrat (3): AR, NH, NY
    Solid Republican (6): AK, KS, NE, SD, UT, WY

  • First thoughts: First Read's Field of 64

    Note: On Fridays during this month of August, we’re scaling back our morning note. But we’re still providing something to read as you head to the beach or take advantage (hopefully) of a long weekend.

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    *** First Read’s Field of 64: This is a slight change to our normal Friday Top 10 list, but today we’re listing what we consider the 64 House seats most likely to switch parties in the fall. (No. 1, for instance, is the seat we consider most likely to flip.) For Republicans to take back the House, they need to pick up a NET of 39 seats. (So if Democrats are able to win three or four GOP seats, as they’re hoping to do, then Republicans must win 42 or 43 Democratic seats.) Political journalists and junkies -- clip and save this list, because it gives you a good idea of where the House battlefield is and whether or not Republicans can reach a net of 39 seats on Election Night. There are 55 Democratic-held seats on this list, and nine GOP-held ones.

    1. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon retiring)
    2. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon running for Senate)
    3. LA-2 (R-Cao)
    4. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle running for Senate)
    5. AR-2 (D-Open-Snyder retiring)
    6. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa retired)
    7. NM-2 (D-Teague)
    8. OH-1 (D-Driehaus)
    9. IN-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth running for Senate)
    10. MD-1 (D-Kratovil)
    11. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore retiring)
    12. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk running for Senate)
    13. OH-15 (D-Kilroy)
    14. HI-1 (R-Djou)
    15. VA-2 (D-Nye)
    16. VA-5 (D-Perriello)
    17. MS-1 (D-Childers)
    18. CO-4 (D-Markey)
    19. PA-7 (D-Open-Sestak running for Senate)
    20. PA-11 (D-Kanjorski)
    21. FL-8 (D-Grayson)
    22. NY-24 (D-Arcuri)
    23. MI-1 (D-Open-Stupak retiring)
    24. NH-1 (D-Shea-Porter)
    25. SD-AL (D-Herseth-Sandlin)
    26. NV-3 (D-Titus)
    27. ND-AL (D-Pomeroy)
    28. PA-3 (D-Dahlkemper)
    29. FL-24 (D-Kosmas)
    30. NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes running for Senate)
    31. MI-7 (D-Schauer freshman)
    32. TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner retiring)
    33. TX-17 (D-Edwards)
    34. AL-2 (D-Bright)
    35. CA-3 (R-Lungren)
    36. AZ-8 (D-Giffords)
    37. OH-16 (D-Boccieri)
    38. AR-1 (D-Berry)
    39. SC-5 (D-Spratt)
    40. WI-7 (D-Open-Obey retiring)
    41. TX-23 (D-Rodriguez)
    42. NY-19 (D-Hall)
    43. FL-2 (D-Boyd)
    44. WA-3 (D-Open-Baird retiring)
    45. KY-6 (D-Chandler)
    46. FL-25 (R-Diaz-Balart)
    47. CA-11 (D-McNerney)
    48. IN-9 (D-Hill)
    49. IN-2 (D-Donnelly)
    50. NC-8 (D-Kissell)
    51. IL-11 (D-Halvorson)
    52. IL-14 (D-Foster)
    53. PA-15 (R-Dent)
    54. WA-8 (R-Reichert)
    55. WV-1 (D-Open-Mollohan lost in primary)
    56. AL-5 (R-Open-Griffith lost in a primary)
    57. VA-11 (D-Connolly)
    58. IA-3 (D-Boswell)
    59. AZ-5 (D-Mitchell)
    60. AZ-1 (D-Kirkpatrick)
    61. MO-4 (D-Skelton)
    62. MI-9 (D-Peters)
    63. OH-13 (D-Sutton)
    64. NY-20 (D-Murphy)

  • First Read's Top 10 Senate takeovers

    *** SPECIAL NOTE *** Please vote on the poll on the right side of this post for which state you are watching most closely. We will leave the poll live through the weekend, and whichever state wins, NBC's Chuck Todd says he will do an extended segment on that state on MSNBC's The Daily Rundown. Vote Early. Vote Often. Vote NOW!

    From NBC's From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    Note: On Fridays during this month of August, we’re scaling back our morning note. But we’re still providing something to read as you head to the beach or take advantage (hopefully) of a long weekend.

    *** First Read’s Top 10 Senate takeovers: If it’s Friday, it’s time for another First Read Top 10 list. Today, we release our monthly look at what we consider the top Senate seats to change parties in November. The number in parentheses is our ranking from last month.

    1. North Dakota (1): Republican John Hoeven (H to the izz-O, V to the izz-A) is coming to Washington.
    2. Delaware (2): Republican Mike Castle (R) remains the front-runner for Joe Biden’s old Senate seat. But he has a primary challenge on Sept. 14.
    3. Arkansas (3): Democrat Blanche Lincoln didn’t really get a bump after her surprise run-off victory against Bill Halter, and Republican John Boozman is the clear favorite to knock off the incumbent.
    4. Indiana (4): It will be interesting to see if Brad Ellsworth (D) is able to make political hay out of his proposal to completely bar senators from later becoming lobbyists. That, of course, is a dig at front-runner Dan Coats’ (R) past lobbying work. This is the race for Evan Bayh’s (D) seat.
    5. Pennsylvania (6): Joe Sestak (D) hits the campaign trail with Bill Clinton on Tuesday. Does that wake up his (so far) sleepy general-election campaign vs. Pat Toomey (R)?
    6. Florida (7): In almost every poll, Charlie Crist (I) remains in the lead in the three-way contest for this GOP-held seat, and C.W. points to him caucusing with the Dems. The Aug. 24 Meek-Greene primary could end up playing a VERY big role in how many Democrats support Crist in November.
    7. Illinois (8): Right now, this race is 50%-50%. The question is what will be the next shoes to drop for either Alexi Giannoulias (D) or Mark Kirk (R), both who have proven to be flawed nominees. This is the race for the seat that Roland Burris (D) currently holds.
    8. Nevada (5): Once near the top of our list, this race continues to drop. And there’s really only reason why: Sharron Angle (R). Harry Reid (D) remains vulnerable, but Angle continues to hurt her cause (example: her jaw-dropping interview with FOX’s Carl Cameron).
    9. Ohio (10): Rob Portman (R) has MUCH more money, and is probably the better candidate, but Lee Fisher (D) continues to lead the race to succeed George Voinovich (R).
    10. Washington (9): Patty Murray and Dino Rossi are on air and fully engaged on the politics of bringing home the bacon. One man's pork is another woman's jobs….

    Others to watch (in order): Wisconsin, Kentucky, Colorado, Missouri, California, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Connecticut, Louisiana

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