Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan sing along with Janna Ryan as the Oakridge Boys perform during a campaign rally at the Marion County Fairgrounds in Marion, Ohio on Sunday.

Ohio's Republican governor said Sunday that private polls show Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney beating President Barack Obama in the all-important battleground state of Ohio just as auto industry politics assume a dominant role in the closing days of the campaign. 

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) predicted outright that Romney would win Ohio on "Meet the Press" and, with it, the presidential election — a overall contest which Kasich said wouldn't be that close.

"Right now, I believe we're currently ahead. Internals show us currently ahead," he said, referring to the private polling candidates routinely conduct. "Honestly, I believe that Romney is going to carry Ohio."

The governor's show of confidence comes after a week in which Obama and Romney — along with their respective running mates — barnstormed the Buckeye State in hopes of securing the state's 18 electoral votes, which would greatly enhance either candidate's hopes of winning the presidential election.

A Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News poll released Sunday and conducted Oct. 18-23 showed the two candidates tied at 49 percent apiece among likely voters in the state. Two other public polls earlier in the week, by CNN/ORC and TIME magazine, showed Obama leading by a small margin.

Romney was set to spend Sunday touring the Buckeye State after canceling a series of stops in Virginia due to the impending Hurricane Sandy; Obama will make a quick trip to Youngstown on Monday before returning to Washington to monitor the hurricane. The president canceled planned stops in northern Virginia and Colorado in the first half of this week. 

Both the president and Romney are battling to turn out their supporters to the polls and shake loose the few remaining undecided voters in a handful of swing states. The Romney campaign has claimed that momentum is on their side, a claim which the Obama campaign argues is a bluff. 

The Romney campaign circulated on Sunday several newspaper endorsements — the Des Moines Register and the Cincinnati Enquirer among them — to argue that the Republican ticket had made inroads in crucial swing states. The Obama campaign responded in kind by sending reporters endorsement editorials from the Youngstown Vindicator and the Toledo Blade, both of which referenced the 2009 auto industry bailout as a point in Obama's favor. 

The auto bailout — which Romney had opposed, memorably, in a New York Times op-ed entitled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" — has assumed a central role in the closing days of the campaign, especially as the election plays out largely on a Midwestern, industrial and economically-battered playing field. 

RELATED: Auto politics haunt Romney in NW Ohio

Kasich argued that the auto bailout hadn't actually boosted Ohio's economy as much as Obama would have the state's voters think.

"We are thrilled that we have a strong auto industry," he argued, "but it doesn't account for the growth of 112,000 jobs in our state."

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

The Romney campaign also aired a new ad in Ohio touting an endorsement from the right-leaning Detroit News and iconic automan Lee Iacocca, while also making a controversial claim about productions of Jeeps in China.

"Obama took GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy and sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China," the ad says in reference to plans by the auto company to build a new production facility in China to sell vehicles in that country. 

The ad is accurate but plays to misinformation that spread earlier this week — partly because Romney had previously voiced the claims — suggesting that Chrysler was planning to move production of all Jeeps to China. The automaker has strongly disputed those reports, though they could have an impact in battleground corners of Ohio like Toledo, a major hub for Jeep production in North America. 

First Read: Romney's Ohio fortunes tied to softening bailout stance

The governors of two other battleground states — John Hickenlooper (D) of Colorado and Scott Walker (R) of Wisconsin —  relied on more traditional fare to make the case for and against their candidates. 

"What are those deductions and tax credits he's going to get rid of?" Hickenlooper asked of Romney's tax reform plan, seizing on the former Massachusetts governor's refusal to specify which loopholes and deductions he would eliminate to finance his proposed tax cuts. 

And Walker, whose contentious collective bargaining reforms sparked a standoff with his state legislature and a recall election which he won, argued that Romney has a track record of working in a bipartisan manner. 

"He's proven that he can do it in a state like Massachusetts," Walker said. 

But neither Walker nor Hickenlooper seemed as confident as Kasich, who predicted that the fate of Ohio's electoral votes — and the election — would be known early on election night. 

"I'm not sure the election's going to be as close as what everybody is talking about today," he said. 

WAUKESHA, WI – Paul Ryan played up his Badger State roots in suburban Milwaukee on Monday, hoping to add Wisconsin to the Republican column in a presidential election for the first time since 1984.

Speaking at a town hall with just 22 days before the election, the Republican vice presidential nominee encouraged the crowd to vote early, which voters can do beginning in a week, on Oct. 22.

“Let’s not forget, early voting starts pretty soon, so you can vote early, you can vote early absentee so that you can make sure we work on making phone calls and getting people to the polls because you know what we learned here in Wisconsin?” the seven-term Wisconsin congressman said before the roughly 1,300 people at the event. “We learned that if you’d say to people here’s who I am, this is what I believe in, and this is what I'm going to do, in Wisconsin we elect them and then they go do it and that’s exactly what we’re going to do for the United States of America we’re going to take on these challenges in this country.”

Wisconsin -- which is considered a battleground state by NBC News -- has 10 electoral votes to award in the upcoming election and both Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama’s campaigns are putting an emphasis here. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll showed Obama leading Romney in the state, 50 percent to 45 percent.

”Let’s make sure that we win Wisconsin. Let’s get out to the polls. Let’s get people there. We are on a winning streak here in Wisconsin. Let’s keep that winning streak going,” Ryan, joined by both of his brothers sitting beside him, said at Carroll University.

Though Wisconsin is generally seen as more sympathetic to Democrats in presidential contests, Republicans have made significant inroads here in recent year thanks to Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, a native of the state, and Gov. Scott Walker, who survived a recall election after curbing public workers' collective bargaining rights.

While Walker joined Ryan here today, both Walker and Priebus appeared with Ryan at a fundraiser for former governor and current U.S. Senate candidate, Tommy Thompson, Sunday afternoon in Milwaukee.

“I think it is wonderful that Wisconsin has become the epicenter of politics – Republican politics -- we are on a role ladies and gentlemen. And these three champions back here are the current and the future leaders of the Republican Party,” Thompson -- who is running in a tight race with Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin --  said at the Harley Davidson Museum as he motioned towards Ryan, Walker, and Priebus.

Ryan's Wisconsin roots were on full display early Monday morning as he gave a shout out to his favorite football team during his ninth public event in the state.

“Nothing better than going to bed with 6 TDs under Aaron Rodgers’s belt, huh? That was an awesome game, I got to tell you to go down to Texas against a 5-0 team on the road and have that kind of performance it reminds me of what it's going to look like on November the 6th,” he said, noting the Packers tie he was wearing.

The VP nominee heads to Ohio, another crucial state, this afternoon where he will hold a rally in Cincinnati.

JANESVILLE, WI -- Mitt Romney made a bold prediction in Wisconsin to open the fourth day of his swing state bus tour: he would steal the Badger State from the Democratic column this November.

"I think President Obama had just put this in his column, he just assumed at the very beginning Wisconsin was going to be his," Romney told a crowd of more than 700 supporters gathered on a factory floor here. "But you know what, we’re going to win Wisconsin. We’re going to get the White House."

Romney made only one stop here today on his five-day, six-state bus tour, and it might be for the best -- his campaign bus might not have seats for all the surrogates who came out to support him this morning.

Evan Vucci / AP

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney gestures during a campaign stop at Monterey Mills June 18 in Janesville, Wis.

There was Sen. Ron Johnson, who toppled Democrat Russ Feingold in 2010, and Reince Priebus, the Kenosha-born former Wisconsin GOP chairman who now leads the Republican National Committee.

"I got to tell you we have a little stimulus plan of our own and the stimulus plan is renowned by economists, like Paul Ryan," Priebus said. "Here is the stimulus plan: elect Mitt Romney, fire Barack Obama, and save America, right?"

But the loudest cheers weren't for Rep. Paul Ryan, the hometown favorite in Janesville and possible vice presidential contender; Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, the recent victor in a recall election who introduced Romney, who elicited the loudest cheers from the crowd.

“It is my honor to still be the 45th governor of Wisconsin and it is my honor to be on the stage with the man I hope is the 45th president of these United States,” Walker said.

Walker's retention in the face of a labor-backed recall challenge, has fired up the Republican base here. The governor emerged as a hero to conservatives after eliminating most public workers' collective bargaining rights. Despite sharp disagreements over the implications of Walker's victory over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) earlier this month, the Romney campaign's senior advisers say they plan to compete aggressively in Wisconsin this fall, if only to keep President Obama on defense.

Romney was also on the attack this morning, accusing the president of replacing a slogan of "hope and change" with a hope to change the subject away from the economy, and of being unable to run on a tepid economic recovery the president insists needs more time to catch fire.

"These are challenging times for Americans, and because of [President Obama's] failed record his campaign is having a hard time deciding what to talk about, because they’d like to talk about the economy, they'd like to talk about his record but you know, the last time his campaign slogan was hope and change this time he’s going with: we hope to change the subject," Romney said.

Romney and Democrats also traded charges of evasiveness in the speech and subsequent spinning from the Obama campaign, with a spokesperson for the president's campaign declaring Romney's speech to be packed with "evasive and angry rhetoric," and Romney accusing the president of trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the American people as he fought for more time in office.

"He tries to tell people that his policies are actually working, that its just taking longer than we had all been told—promised," Romney said. "And I can tell you that I know he’s a very eloquent person and he’s able to describe these policies in great detail and in some respects tell you that night is day and day is night, but people know better."

The dueling speeches delivered Thursday by President Barack Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney in Ohio offered a clear preview of the type of campaigns they intend to run against each other. And they made them in defiance of a week of protests from influential voices in their own parties who urged them both to offer voters forward-thinking solutions.

Obama and Romney essentially doubled-down on the strategies they have pursued so far, each waging a campaign meant to define – and disqualify – the other in the eyes of voters. The president’s speech was intended to transform 2012 into a “stark choice,” in the words of his campaign; Romney’s near simultaneous speech was meant to transform the election into a referendum on whether Obama has succeeded in turning the economy around.

Steve Nesius / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney addresses supporters during a campaign rally at Con-Air Industries Inc., in Orlando, Fla.

The president’s speech in Cleveland painted Romney in broad strokes, portraying the presumptive GOP nominee as a rehash of the Bush era, “except on steroids.”

"[I]f you want to give the policies of the last decade another try, then you should vote for Mr. Romney," Obama said.

As for Romney, speaking in Cincinnati, he said the president’s talk is “cheap.”

“He’s going to be saying today that he wants four more years. He may have forgotten he talked about a one term proposition if he couldn’t get the economy turned around in three years. But we’re going to hold him to his word,” the former Massachusetts governor said.

But both candidates drew criticism from the media and their opponents for their remarks, accusing both Obama and Romney of offering little in terms of substance, opting instead for broad attacks.

It’s a criticism weathered by both Obama and Romney this week from members of their own party, who worry about the turf over which the campaign will be fought.

In a memo that received wide media coverage, longtime Democratic operatives Stan Greenberg and James Carville urged the president’s campaign to shift toward a message that “focuses on what we will do to make a better future for the middle class.”

“They want to know the plans for making things better in a serious way – not just focused on finishing up the work of the recovery,” the pair wrote for the group Democracy Corps.

Or, as their onetime boss, former President Bill Clinton said on CNN: “I don't think I should have to say bad things about Gov. Romney personally to disagree with him politically.”

It’s a line of criticism not dissimilar to the frustration Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker voiced this week about the way Romney’s run his campaign.

“The way he wins is that, if voters see that 'R,' instead of thinking 'Republican,' they think of 'reformer.' Because here's a candidate that has a clear, bold plan to take on both the economic and fiscal crisis our country faces,” he said at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast this week.

Both the Obama and Romney campaigns have long protested that their positions are not just clear, but detailed as well. The president has pushed for Congress to authorize stalled elements of his American Jobs Act, though no serious political observer expects that to advance through a gridlocked Congress.

"You might have thought that it would be a moment when he would acknowledge his policy mistakes and suggest a new course," Romney said of Obama's speech on Friday in New Hampshire. "But no. He promised four more years, of more of the same. Four. More. Very. Long. Years."

"That's really the divide in this race. The president thinks we're on the right track and his policies are working," Romney added. "I believe with all my heart that we can — that we must — do better!"

Romney has his own 59-point economic plan – a strategy that includes a series of tax cuts and regulatory repeals that, he says, would spur job creation. But his central message on the campaign trail doesn’t revolve around any digestible plan of his own.

Walker even suggested to reporters that Romney might develop his own version of Herman Cain’s “9-9-9” plan — not in terms of substance, but in terms of crafting an easily recognizable jobs plan that voters would immediately associate with the candidate.

"The American people I think will rightly demand to know something more than he's not President Obama," Republican Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said on "Fox News Sunday" last weekend. "So, he'd better have an affirmative and constructive message and one of hope."

There’s still plenty of time for Obama and Romney to craft and debut new plans before voters begin tuning into the election more intently this fall.

But the general election, so far, has been defined by complaints about its banality — from its Twitter wars to press releases demanding each candidate disavow what a tenuously-related associate has said. And while some elders in each party seem to believe that a bold policy move would give their candidate a leg up, others seem resigned to the emerging dogfight between Romney and Obama.

"It’s not going to be big on policy," former Republican Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour told reporters on Friday, as reported by TPM. "It’s going to be personal. ‘He doesn’t care about people like you, he’s not like us, he’s mean to his dog, he’s married to a well-certified equestrian.'"

SAN ANTONIO, TX — Mitt Romney's campaign seem bolstered in their hopes of winning Wisconsin this fall, with Romney predicting Republican Gov. Scott Walker's victory in last night's recall election would "echo throughout the country" this November.

"What happened yesterday was people looked at a Republican governor, a conservative, and even though they may have been Democrat or independent, they looked at the record of a conservative who cut back on the size of government, who held down taxes, who said we had to reform — in this case public sector unions that asked for too much — and then he went to the polls," Romney told donors at a fundraiser here in San Antonio this morning.

Romney expanded upon that position in a conference call with business owners later this afternoon.

"The vote that we saw last night in Wisconsin said that people in what many have considered a blue state — it hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1984 — a blue state said we’ve seen a conservative governor, he cut back on the scale of government and has held down taxes and stood up to the public sector unions, and we want more of that not less of it," Romney told callers from the National Federation of Independent Business. "And I think you’re gonna find that in the decisions being made in November."

And while exit polls last night in Wisconsin showed Romney trailing President Obama among recall voters, the state is an attractive target for Romney's campaign as it looks to make inroads against the president's 2008 electoral map.

One Romney adviser described Walker's victory, and the mobilized, organized and well-funded Republican apparatus that made it possible, as something that "opens the door for us," in the Wisconsin — but emphasized that Romney doesn't have to win the state to reach the 270 it needs to win the White House.

Another top Romney adviser cautioned that the campaign had not yet decided how big of an effort to make towards winning Wisconsin, but suggested that the campaign would certainly be on offense there.

Wisconsin has become an unlikely incubator for top Republican talent in recent years, with Walker, RNC Chairman Reince Preibus and House Budget Committee Chairman (and oft-floated VP shortlister) Paul Ryan all hailing from the Badger state. 

The Obama campaign has kept its own focus on what it asserts is Romney's lackluster record as governor. 

“In Texas today, Mitt Romney offered nothing more than empty election-year promises—promises that we’ve heard from him before. He said that his priority as president would be job creation, but we know that that wasn’t his priority either as a corporate buyout specialist or during his time as governor," said Obama spokeswoman Lis Smith.

Darren Hauck / Reuters

Scott Walker embraces his family as he celebrates his victory in the recall election against Democratic challenger and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in Waukesha, Wis., on June 5, 2012.

MADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's resounding victory over political foes who had sought his removal from office cemented the ascendancy of a new class of Republicans whose political style was forged in the Badger State.

Walker survived an effort led by Democrats and labor unions to oust him by way of a popular recall; an effort first initiated after the governor pursued legislation stripping organized labor of their collective bargaining rights in the very birthplace of those unions.

The campaign drew national headlines because of its implications for unions, but the stakes were equally high for a new generation of reform-minded conservatives. Walker and Rep. Paul Ryan, also of Wisconsin, represent the vanguard of this wave of Republicans, underscoring the extent to which the state has become a deep bench for emerging GOP leaders.

First Read: Walker wins and labor loses

"We're a state that's produced a lot of great leaders, Paul and Scott being good examples of those," said Ray Boland, a former state veterans affairs official in Wisconsin in attendance at a Walker campaign event on Monday. Boland is hoping to join this class of Republicans this fall; he's running for Congress as a Republican against veteran Democratic Rep. Ron Kind.

Wisconsin has produced some of the GOP's most visible leaders in recent years — Walker, Ryan and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus. This troika all grew up in the state's southeast corner, and cut their political teeth in the post-Reagan era of the GOP.

They're unified not just by common roots, but a similar approach to politics.

This generation of Republicans, Priebus said last week in an interview with NBCPolitics.com, are "down-to-earth relatable people that, if they have to grab a weapon and run up the hill, they will."

Joshua Lott / Reuters

Reince Priebus introduces Mitt Romney during the Republican National Committee State Chairman's National Meeting in Scottsdale, Ariz., April 20, 2012.

Walker and Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, have fashioned themselves as earnest politicians who profess an interest in accomplishments over their own political careers. (Nevermind the fact that each has long been involved in state and federal politics.)

"Tonight, we tell Wisconsin, we tell our country and we tell people all across the globe that voters really do want leaders who stand up and make the tough decisions," Walker said Tuesday.

To be sure, these Republicans have attracted intense support and opposition. Ryan and Walker don't adopt the most strident rhetoric, relative to many other conservatives. But their aw-shucks approach to politics belies the exceptionally aggressive reforms they're willing to pursue in hopes of cutting deficits.

Walker emerges victorious in Wisconsin recall

"It’s an earnestness: here’s what I believe, here’s why I believe it, here’s what I think is the right thing to do, and if you elect me, I’ll go do this," Ryan said in an interview with NBCPolitics.com. "And then you get elected and do it. It’s that simple; it’s liberating."

That message has particular traction during this age of austerity, when concern about mounting public debt has become one of the top political issues.

Ryan's "Path to Prosperity" is an audacious budget that calls for major changes to Medicare and Social Security. Walker's effort to curb public employee unions' collective bargaining rights earned him the headache of Tuesday's recall election.

These Republicans are lightning rods, but because of their deeds, rather than their words.

It's also why presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has tried to tap into this kind of Wisconsin-style politics in mounting his own campaign versus President Obama. Ryan is rumored to be on the short list of candidates to round out the GOP ticket, in no small part because it would double-down on this frank genre of politics.

(The Wisconsin congressman wouldn't even entertain a question about the vice presidency.)

The Wisconsin way has also fueled Republican hopes of winning the state in the Electoral College this fall. The state has voted Democratic in recent presidential elections, and still appears to lean in that direction: President Barack Obama led Romney by 9 percent in exit polling from Tuesday's recall.

"We hear the same thing every four years," said a longtime Democratic operative in the state. "I think right now, given all the polling that's been done, Obama has a slight advantage here. But I think history suggests they'll be close races, and hard-fought."

And if Romney does win in Wisconsin, it might be difficult to parse out a broader implication for Obama. After all, Republicans' efforts to fight off recalls for the better part of the past 15 months has meant they've built a vaunted voter mobilization machine unparalleled in any other state.

"He is competitive," Ryan said of Romney's hopes in the state this fall. "And I think he’s going to win."

"How many times do we need to win before people start to believe that we can win in Wisconsin as conservatives?" asked Priebus.

He gleefully added at Walker's election night party on Tuesday evening: ""The message [to Obama] is we can't wait for you to get into Wisconsin and test the water."

With the labor movement reeling from the result of Tuesday's recall election in Wisconsin, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka sought to downplay the significance of Gov. Scott Walker's victory over a union-driven effort to unseat him. 

Trumka, the leader of one of the nation's largest labor groups, dismissed the notion that unions might look back upon their unsuccessful campaign against Walker with regret.

"We didn't decide on this recall. It was the workers in Wisconsin and the voters in Wisconsin who did," he said on a conference call with reporters. "Hell, I don't know if we'd do anything differently."

First Thoughts: Walker wins and labor loses

The AFL-CIO president highlighted instead two mitigating factors from Tuesday's recall, in which Walker beat out Democratic opponent Tom Barrett by 7 percentage points. 

Trumka pointed to Walker's sizable advantage in spending between his own campaign and allies who flooded the airwaves in Wisconsin. Trumka also stressed the recall of a Republican state senator, which flipped control of that chamber from Republicans to Democrats. 

"This isn't the crystal ball that predicts the future; this is a very unique circumstance," he said.

The AFL-CIO also circulated a poll of union members who voted on Tuesday that reflected strong support for collective bargaining rights and generally stingy opposition to Walker. 

Trumka noted — to his chagrin — that much of the debate during the closing weeks of the Walker-Barrett campaign had shifted away from the initial debate over organized labor.

The whole effort to recall Walker was prompted by the governor's pursuit of a controversial state law stripping public sector workers of that privilege. 

Walker emerges victorious in Wisconsin recall

Wednesday's call was just the opening wave of postmortems associated with the recall, and the effort by groups with a stake in the race to spin (favorably or unfavorably) the outcome. 

One of the biggest open questions for proponents of the recall will be whether President Barack Obama could have done more to aid the Barrett campaign. 

"I think there's probably some mixed feelings," Trumka acknowledged of Obama's distance from the race, noting also that he wasn't interested in second-guessing the president's participation.

Updated 12:11 a.m. — WAUKESHA, Wis. — Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) survived a furious campaign seeking his recall on Tuesday, emerging as the victor in a bitter fight over state budgets and collective bargaining rights. 

Walker prevailed over Democratic challenger Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee, in the closely-watched campaign that stemmed from a fight in early 2011, when Walker drove a controversial bill stripping public employee unions of their collective bargaining rights through Wisconsin's legislature. Walker won with 53 percent of the vote while Barrett received 46 percent, a slightly larger margin than when the two ran against one another in 2010.

Walker told a raucous crowd at his election night party that his survival was an affirmation of political "courage."

"Tonight, we tell Wisconsin, we tell our country and we tell people all across the globe that voters really do want leaders who stand up and make the tough decisions," he said.

Walker's win served as a symbolic victory for a generation of reform-minded conservatives; the crowd at Walker's Waukesha election night party let out a large cheer when a local NBC affiliate showed the projection of Walker's victory. 

Conversely, the outcome in Wisconsin was a galling disappointments to Democrats and labor groups that had vowed to seek the Republican governor's ouster over the collective bargaining law. Tens of millions of dollars flowed into the state both in support and opposition of Walker, reflecting the high stakes in the race.

Wis. recall may offer some closure, but divisions remain

Barrett pleaded for unity from his supporters, who bemoaned his concession to Walker.

"We are a state that has been deeply divided and it is up to all of us, our side and their side, to listen. To listen to each other and to try to do what is right for everyone in this state," Barrett told incredulous backers gathered in Milwaukee. "The state remains divided and it is my hope that while we have lively debates, a lively discourse which is healthy in any democracy, that those who are victorious tonight, as well as those of us who are not victorious tonight, can at the end of the day do what is right for Wisconsin families."

The fallout from the recall campaign was hardly isolated to Wisconsin, however. Though presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney didn't involve himself in the campaign, he hailed Walker's victory for its reverberations. 

"Governor Walker has demonstrated over the past year what sound fiscal policies can do to turn an economy around, and I believe that in November voters across the country will demonstrate that they want the same in Washington, D.C.," Romney said in a statement. "Tonight’s results will echo beyond the borders of Wisconsin."

President Obama didn't campaign in Wisconsin, either, a decision that prompted grumbling from state Democrats. Obama led Romney by a 9 percent margin in the final exit polling — a note of encouragement for Democrats looking ahead toward November — and the president's campaign director in Wisconsin said the outcome was "a testament to all of those individuals who talked to their friends, neighbors, and colleagues about the stakes in this election of how close this contest was."

Exit poll: Obama leads Romney in Wisconsin

The election results might have brought the political battles in Wisconsin to a climax, but exit poll data suggested that the state's voters remain sharply divided 15 months after the initial legislative fight that had prompted weeks of protests in Madison, and intense national media attention.

The data showed that the passions either for or against Walker ran high in Tuesday's vote. The vast majority of voters made up their minds before May, and few voters who identified either as a Democrat or Republican crossed party lines to support a different candidate.

Walker, making a pivot toward healing his state's raw wounds, acknowledged that he might have "rushed" his pursuit of reforms early in his terms before consulting with political opponents. 

Darren Hauck / Reuters

Republican Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who survived a recall election, casts his vote on election day in Wauwatosa on June 5, 2012.

"Tomorrow is the day after the election. Tomorrow, we are no longer opponents; tomorrow, we are one as Wisconsinites," he said. 

But Walker's star power within the GOP hit an apex with his relatively commanding victory on Tuesday night.

He closed his campaign by touching little on the initial battle over collective bargaining, instead emphasizing positive job reports since he took office, and the improved state budget situation. He argued that voters had tired of the recall efforts, which resulted in the ouster of several state senators last summer. 

Walker's saving grace might have involved voters who might have disagreed with Walker's approach to collective bargaining law, but felt it did not warrant his removal from office. The governor made a direct appeal to those voters in the closing weeks of the campaign. Had Walker been recalled, he would have been just the third governor in U.S. history to earn such an ignominious distinction.

The Walker-Barrett race has been watched closely by party leaders in Washington for signs of its implications for the general election this fall. Unions and business groups have also invested heavily in the race, helping fuel a price tag that will total in the tens of millions.

Organized labor stares down specter of possible recall loss

"Big public labor created this mess, and you know what? They lost in the process," Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, a Wisconsin native, told reporters at Walker's event. "It starts here in Wisconsin, and it's going to finish at the White House in November."

For organized labor groups, the outcome in Wisconsin stood as an especially disheartening setback that left leaders searching for silver linings. 

"We wanted a different outcome, but Wisconsin forced the governor to answer for his efforts to divide the state and punish hard-working people," said Richard Trumka, the president of the AFL-CIO. "We hope Scott Walker heard Wisconsin: Nobody wants divisive policies."

Dinesh Ramde / AP

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, right, talks with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus at a Republican campaign office in Germantown, Wis., on Sunday, June 3, 2012.

MILWAUKEE, Wis. — Organized labor is staring down the prospect of a bitter disappointment here on Tuesday, where union members are working furiously to unseat Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and replace him with a Democratic challenger.

Wisconsin has become the front line in the battle between unions and reform-minded Republicans, and organized labor arguably has more on the line in Tuesday's recall election than any other constituency.

Union members have spearheaded the effort to remove Walker from office and replace him with a Democratic challenger after the governor, who was elected in 2010, pushed a controversial bill through the state legislature stripping most public employee unions — which were birthed in Wisconsin — of their collective bargaining rights.

"I'm still angry," said Sandy Jacobs, an active member of the Wisconsin Federation of Nurses and Health Professionals, who spent Sunday afternoon knocking on union members' doors in the Milwaukee neighborhood of Bayview. "[Walker]'s not representing middle class people; he's representing his own agenda, and I'm angry."

Walker's bid to overhaul collective bargaining sparked weeks of protests in the state capitol, and dramatic national media coverage. A million Wisconsin voters signed the initial petition to force a recall election.

But the white-hot furor toward Walker has tempered somewhat over time. Some Wisconsinites wonder whether ending the governor's term early is premature. By all accounts, tomorrow's election will be a close one, and Walker has battled his way to a small advantage over Democratic challenger Tom Barrett in public polls.

"I’d be lying to you if I said it wouldn't be a disappointment, but that’s not going to stop us," said Lee Saunders, the secretary-treasurer of the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employee, of the prospect of a Walker victory.

Roger Schneider / AP

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett serves eggs at a dairy breakfast in the Town of Rockland, Wis., on Sunday, June 3, 2012. Next to him is Republican Rep. Reid Ribble.

If Wisconsin voters retain the conservative governor, it would cap a series of political disappointments that have plagued organized labor in recent years.

Labor groups backed President Barack Obama heavily in 2008, but the stimulus sought by the White House shortly after his inauguration was far smaller than what union leaders had desired.

CPI: Wisconsin recall battle is state’s most expensive election

At the height of the battle for health care reform, labor voices were some of the loudest advocate for the so-called “public option,” a government-administered insurance plan available to consumers as a health care alternative. Democrats jettisoned that component to advance the bill over the finish line.

And most bitterly, the Employee Free Choice Act – a piece of legislation intended to enable organizing workforces into unions – was left for dead by the White House and Democrats in Congress after Republicans and business groups turned it into a toxic issue politically.

Leigh Ullman puts a yard sign in the lawn of a Tom Barrett supporter while knocking on doors Sunday in the Bayview neighborhood of Milwaukee.

“I think it’s stating the obvious that it’s a hard time to be a union member – or any worker,” said Michael Podhorzer, the AFL-CIO’s political director.

The organized labor community and most Democrats have sought to downplay the import of any single election, let alone the recall in Wisconsin.

And the campaign here has, to a degree, shifted away from the initial controversy involving collective bargaining. Walker has campaigned on signs of job creation in the state, and his team has made the argument that a recall election isn't an appropriate way to resolve a policy dispute.

The Barrett campaign hasn't talked as much about collective bargaining, either; the Milwaukee mayor has instead emphasized the need to bring unity to Wisconsin, and has attacked Walker for his association with former aides who are facing a criminal corruption probe.

The divide between organized labor and the Republican Party isn't especially new, though. Presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney has made a point of condemning unions in his stump speeches, and other rising stars in the party, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, have seen their stock rise by doing battle with organized labor in their respective states.

The relationship between labor and the GOP is "not very good," at least when it comes to public employee unions, said Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, a native of Wisconsin.

"They’ve spent millions and millions of dollars of their rank and file trying to defeat our candidate. I would say, given that record, obviously things could be a whole lot better," Priebus said in an interview last week with NBCPolitics.com.

Republican Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, whose district includes plenty of union members, downplayed the notion that the GOP and unions are at war politically.

Mark Hertzberg / AP

Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Janesville, speaks at a rally held by the Racine Tea Party PAC in Gorney Park in Caledonia, Wis., on Saturday, June 2, 2012. The rally was held in opposition to the recall election.

"In my mind, since I come from a union area, there is a difference between public and private sector unions," he said, adding that he thought public employee unions had "over-flexed their muscle" in seeking Walker's ouster.

To labor, exactly the opposite is the case. The recall, said Podhorzer, will show that it was Walker who "overreached." He said that Republicans had always been anti-labor, but the rhetoric has become especially "virulent" as of late.

"I think they are at war with unions. Everything they’re proposing to do is to gut the gains we’ve made for middle class families," said Saunders.

But union members on the ground in Wisconsin are already looking past Tuesday. They acknowledge the millions that Walker has spent on advertising to retain office might help him accomplish that goal.

Leigh Ullman, the president of Local 5011 Wisconsin Federation of Nurses and Health Professionals, who was also knocking on doors in Bayview, said he would be "sad and disappointed" if voters retain Walker.

"I would have to redouble my efforts and work that much harder, especially for Obama in the fall," he said. "But I'm not prepared to that; I'm going to be celebrating on Wednesday."