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  • 16
    Mar
    2012
    5:44pm, EDT

    Santorum: English needn't be condition for Puerto Rican statehood

    By NBC's Andrew Rafferty

    SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO -- Presidential hopeful Rick Santorum said today Puerto Rico would not have to make English its official language in order to gain statehood, but maintained that the island territory would need to be bilingual.

    Santorum drew fire on what was largely meant to be a goodwill trip to Puerto Rico for comments he made to a San Juan newspaper on Wednesday suggesting the U.S. territory needed to make English its official language before it could become the 51st state.  But speaking to reporters after here after visiting a local school, the former Pennsylvania senator said he simply called on the island to learn English.

    "What I said is English has to be learned as a language and this has to be a country where English is widely spoken and used yes," Santorum said.

    However Santorum did say he believes English needs to be taught and that Puerto Rican schools would need to teach the language as a condition of statehood.

    "They need to be taught English. That's how you integrate fully into American life.  Its the best opportunity for you to be economically successful is to speak English," he said. "One of the important things about Puerto Rico is to be able to be a bridge between the mainland and central and south america, well bridge requires that you be able to speak both languages."

    The island was Santorum's first campaign stop since two primary wins in Mississippi and Alabama.  It's a place that is largely seen to favor chief rival Mitt Romney, who has won the endorsement of Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño.  But Santorum's trip here is a sign he is hopeful he can earn some of the 23 delegates up for grabs during Sunday's primary.

    The candidate visited the governor's mansion for a photo opportunity with Fortuño, his only appearance with the Puerto Rican leader.

    Instead, it was the Secretary of Recreation of Sports Department Henry Neumann that was by his side during the two-day visit.

    During a press conference on the steps of the governor's mansion, Santorum attempted to downplay the importance of Fortuño's endorsement of the former Massachusetts governor.  "The establishment across America has lined up behind Gov. Romeny very early on and I certainly respect that," he said. "He looked like the odds on favorite at the beginning of the campaign. We tend to do that as Republicans -- sort of take the person next in line."

    The question the GOP hopeful most commonly faced was regarding his feelings towards Puerto Rican statehood.  He has said he favors allowing the island to decide for itself whether or not to abandon their territory status.  But, there would need to be a resounding consensus, not simply a majority plus one, Santorum said.

    Throughout his campaign stops here, the candidate emphasized the work he did with Puerto Rico during his time in Congress.  It is the reason he took  exception to local reports characterizing his remarks about a bilingual Puerto Rico as a dig against those living on the island.

    "This is my 3rd trip to Puerto Rico. We've worked with the people of Puerto Rico, governors of the past. We've done things to try to help benefit Puerto Rico. For someone to misrepresent and completely fabricate something that I never said or even intimated is very disappointing," he said.

    The latest candidate to surge in Republican nominating contest did not draw overwhelming crowds to his campaign stops, until his last event -- a parade throughout the streets of Old San Juan.  Walking behind a marching band and an emcee shouting his name, Santorum greeted surprised Puerto Ricans during the march that shut down blocks of the old city.

    He has not set an expectations for how he'll finish here on Sunday, predicting only that he'll earn "as many delegates as we can get."

    Santorum returns to the continental United State tomorrow, spending the remainder of the week stumping in Missouri, Illinois and Louisiana.

    43 comments

    With all the backpedaling Santorum has been doing of late, he seems to be headed off the cliff backwards, in full reverse.

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  • 16
    Mar
    2012
    2:13pm, EDT

    2012 is no GOP version of Clinton-Obama primary

    By Michael O'Brien, msnbc.com
    Follow @mpoindc

     

    If there's been one familiar refrain among Republicans during this presidential primary, it's been that the hard-fought battle between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and other contenders hasn't hurt the party – arguably, it's even strengthened it.

    "Don't always assume that a primary fight is a bad thing," Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Mar. 7 on CNN. "In fact, I think it's the opposite. I think it's going to be great for our party."

    And frequently, as a point of reference, Republicans point to the long – and, at times, bitter – intra-party battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 as evidence that an extended race to the nomination isn’t necessarily a hindrance to winning the White House.

    But there are important differences between the two cycles. Some of them might serve as a warning sign for the GOP, such as less money and a more damaged brand. And some might give the party encouragement, like more enthusiasm among Republicans. 

    Of course, an important caveat: In some ways, it’s difficult to compare 2008 (a race without an incumbent and with two history-making primary candidates) with 2012 (when there’s a sitting president in the Oval Office).

    Bank accounts
    At this point in the Democratic primary in 2008, Obama and Clinton had each heavily outraised Republicans’ fundraising haul through the first couple of months of 2012.

    In February of 2008, just as the Democratic campaign had appeared to shift into a two-person race, the Obama campaign raised $55 million for the month, and had $39 million in the bank going into March. Clinton raised $35 million over the same time period, and had $29 million in cash on hand. (It’s worth noting, though, that much of Clinton’s money was reserved for the general election, and she couldn’t use in the primary season.)

    Compare that to the money raised by Santorum and Romney over February, according to their own campaigns’ estimates (official numbers have not yet been filed with the Federal Election Commission). Romney raised $11.5 million in February and Santorum raised about $9 million. Romney had just $7.3 million in the bank at the end of the month, though, suggesting that his campaign is spending at a rate that could threaten to bleed him dry by November, especially if the primary continues for a while.

    A discrepancy would suggest some diminished enthusiasm for the Republican candidates this cycle, at least at first glance.

    But there are some important things to keep in mind: First, overall fundraising is down in 2012 versus 2008, in part due to the impact of a deep recession that onset after the 2008 primary.

    More Republican money has also flowed to super PACs that support the various GOP candidates. These groups didn’t exist in the last Democratic primary, and one Romney super PAC alone, Restore Our Future, has already spent over $30 million this primary season.

    The brand
    Perhaps the most illuminating figures on the impact of the Republican primary campaign comes from a series of national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls and the exit polling conducted of voters in key battleground state primaries.

    By March of 2008, both Obama and Clinton enjoyed net-positive favorability ratings among the public at large (Obama: 51 positive, 28 negative; Clinton: 45 positive, 43 negative according to the March 2008 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll).

    Romney and Santorum haven’t fared as well with the general public, according to this month’s numbers, also taken from the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Romney has a 28 percent positive rating among U.S. adults, and a 39 percent negative rating. Santorum has a 26 percent positive rating, and a 39 percent negative rating. They each perform much better with Republican primary voters.

    And in terms of the impact on each party’s brand, the Democratic Party had a 45 percent positive rating among registered voters in March of 2008, and a 35 percent negative rating. Four years later, the Republican Party has a 32 percent positive rating, and a 43 percent negative rating.

    But the GOP’s ratings represent a recovery of sorts from the party’s depths in mid-2010, when the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from that year had the Republican Party with just a 24 percent positive rating, and a 46 percent negative rating.

    Republicans are also still dealing with the fallout from an unpopular two-term president in George W. Bush, who preceded Obama. The wars Bush had started are still winding down, and Obama still warns of a return to the policies of the years that preceded him, attacking Bush by implication.

    The Bush years also left Republicans with a more fractious coalition with emerging fault lines of social issues and foreign and economic policy. Given those divisions, it might be tougher for any of these candidates to capture a broader swath of the electorate.

    Enthusiasm, curbed
    The figures from both primaries suggest that Democrats were happier with their choice of candidates than Republicans have been this cycle.

    Fifty-seven percent of Republicans who voted in the Mar. 6 Ohio primary said in exit polls that they would be satisfied with Romney as the eventual nominee.

    By comparison, 73 percent of Democrats who voted in the Ohio primary four years ago said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 66 percent of Democrats said the same of Obama that same cycle.

    Nationally, 45 percent of Republican primary voters said in the March NBC/WSJ poll that they would support Romney with enthusiasm, and 42 percent said they would support Santorum with enthusiasm.

    Four years ago, in the same national poll, 60 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton with enthusiasm, and 52 percent expressed enthusiastic support for Obama.

    But in 2008, Democrats weren’t being measured against an incumbent president like Republicans are this cycle. The differences between the candidates were also more stylistic in 2008 than ideological, especially compared to the 2012 race in which Republicans do battle over the extent of their conservatism.

    But the Democratic primary four years ago also featured two political heavyweights in Obama and Clinton, each of whom were poised to make history simply by virtue of their nomination. Obama would become the first African-American presidential nominee, and later, the nation’s first black president. Clinton would have been the first woman to top a ticket, and the first woman president if she were elected.

    And Republicans can take solace in the fact that Obama is now their greatest unifier. While there might not be tremendous enthusiasm for either of the two major remaining Republican candidates, there’s a great deal of interest within the GOP about beating Obama.

    A mid-February Gallup poll found that Republicans, by an 8-point margin, were more likely to say that they were enthusiastic about voting this fall compared to Democrats. And among certain key portions of Obama’s 2008 coalition, especially younger and nonwhite voters, enthusiasm was down.

    But a mid-March poll, also by Gallup, found that enthusiasm for Romney and Santorum within the GOP is down from 2008; Republicans are motivated this time by voting against Obama.

    And the numbers in the January NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggest that while Santorum and Romney might not generate tremendous enthusiasm, they’re at least acceptable. Seventy-five percent of Republican primary voters said they would be “comfortable” with Romney as the nominee, and 65 percent said the same for Santorum.

    689 comments

    It was heated to a breaking point but there was love, enthusiasm and hope when Clinton/Obama ran to own the future while these GOP field, who are running to own the past, lack in everthing......visionless.

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  • 16
    Mar
    2012
    9:16am, EDT

    First Thoughts: The long haul

    Evan Vucci / AP

    Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign stop at William Jewell College on Tuesday, March 13, 2012 in Liberty, Mo.

    The biggest consequence of the AL and MS results: This GOP race is in for the long haul… And that could have a positive and negative impact on Romney in the general election… Team Romney: seeing the trees, but missing the forest?… Breaking down this weekend’s contests in Missouri and Puerto Rico… Team Obama unveils its 17-minute “docu-ganda”… And GOPers reignite the culture wars (over abortion, contraception, women’s rights) in Pennsylvania and Arizona.


     

    By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

    *** The long haul: The biggest consequence of Rick Santorum’s victories on Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi on is that a competitive GOP primary race will continue through at least April -- and maybe even longer than that. And for Mitt Romney, that situation will inevitably shape the contours of the general election, in potentially good and bad ways for him. Let’s start with the good: A longer primary season would allow him to make the sale to conservatives and the GOP base that he’s their guy. What’s more, a la the ’08 Democratic race, an extended primary season will take him to competitive general-election states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, and simply engaging the GOP electorate there could increase the amount of volunteers and interest for the fall. (MSNBC.com’s Mike O’Brien will have a piece later today comparing that long ’08 race to this current one.) But here’s the bad: A longer primary season will only bleed money. While Karl Rove wrote yesterday that the Obama campaign has a high burn rate (and they do, but don’t forget how the Obama campaign uses the DNC), it doesn’t compare to the 287% burn rate Team Romney racked up in January (raising $6.5 million but spending $18.8 million). In addition, the longer the GOP race goes on, the less time Romney will have to fix his image problem with independents, who gave him a 22%/38% fav/unfav rating in the most recent NBC/WSJ poll.

    *** Romney admits the primary season has helped and hurt him: In an interview on FOX yesterday, Romney admitted that the primary season has both helped and hurt him. “Frankly, a good, spirited contest prepares us for what’s going to happen with President Obama. It’s good to get your skin toughened up a bit, hear the arguments, respond to them.” Asked if he was encouraged by the whole process, Romney replied, “Look, I’m perfectly pleased with the process we have. I face tough competitors, very capable people.” But in another FOX interview, on Hannity, Romney said he hoped the GOP gets its nomine in time. “I hope to be able to get the nomination before the convention. I think that will happen.”

    *** Seeing the trees but missing the forest: The Atlantic’s Molly Ball has a very good summation of what has hurt the Romney campaign so far: It’s done a fine job of focusing on the trees (tactics, endorsements, delegate math), but it has ignored the forest (Romney’s image, his standing with conservatives). "I think they're extremely competent at the tactical things. They run a tight ship in terms of the nuts and bolts," GOP strategist John Weaver tells Ball. "But their messaging is a head-scratcher at times… Can they grind it out, run more negative ads, do more robocalls, that kind of crap? Yeah, they can do that better than anyone else. But what has it got them?" And then there’s this kicker quote from an unnamed Republican observer: "This was a campaign built around the notion that Mitt Romney was going to be the nominee because he was the inevitable candidate and the only guy who could beat Obama. Then he started losing, and it was shattering to the electability argument -- 'If he's inevitable, why isn't he winning?’”

    *** Caucusing in Missouri… : This weekend brings us more contests in Missouri (Saturday) and Puerto Rico (Sunday). Per NBC’s John Bailey, Missouri Republicans will begin caucusing on the county level beginning on Saturday morning. The state held a presidential preference primary last month, and Rick Santorum won with 55% of the vote. But the results of that primary were non-binding (it was a beauty contest) and has no bearing on allotting delegates. No delegates will be bound on Saturday either, but Missouri Republicans will elect delegates to go to the Congressional District Conventions (April 21) and the State Convention (June 5). Missouri's national delegates will be bound at these events -- 24 delegates at the CD Conventions in April, and 25 delegates at the State Convention in June. Unlike the other the caucuses so far, the Missouri GOP will not conduct a straw poll vote so there will be no results to report on Saturday.

    *** … and primary in Puerto Rico: In Puerto Rico -- where residents CAN’T vote in the general election -- Republicans head to the polls on Sunday at 9:00 am ET and wrap up voting at 5:00 pm ET, Bailey adds. The commonwealth's 20 At-Large delegates are awarded proportionally based on the primary vote, but a candidate must get at least 20% of the vote to qualify. In addition, if a candidate gets a majority of the vote, he gets all 20 delegates. Puerto Rico's three RNC delegates are unbound, but all three have made public endorsements. According to reports, National Committeeman (and Gov.) Luis Fortuno and National Committeewoman Zoraida Fonalledas have both endorsed Mitt Romney, while Puerto Rico GOP Chairman Carlos Mendez has publicly endorsed Newt Gingrich. 

    *** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Romney visits Rosemont, IL then jets to Puerto Rico to attend a rally in San Juan Puerto Rico… Gingrich makes stops in Louisiana, campaigning in Slidell, New Orleans, and North  Shore… Meanwhile, Santorum attends a rally in Missouri then travels to Arlington Heights, IL… Paul will also campaign in the Show Me State.

    *** Team Obama’s 17-minute “docu-ganda”: Turning away from the GOP primary race, Team Obama yesterday took a couple of steps forward in its general-election efforts – with Vice President Biden’s speech in Ohio, the president’s own energy speech (which was billed as an official White House event), and the release of the campaign’s 17-minute documentary (or “docu-ganda” as the Washington Post put it).  NBC’s Carrie Dann writes that the video “highlights the Obama administration's aid package to the automobile industry… Also named in the film as major feats are the passage of the health care overhaul, the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, the killing of Osama bin Laden and the president's naming of two female Supreme Court justices.” But after watching the documentary, it appears that the campaign’s biggest challenge will be to defend the health-care law.

    *** More proof the GOP is leaderless? Just as Republicans are trying to move away from social issues, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R) this week was asked if an ultrasound bill being considered in his state goes too far. His answer is something that Democrats and women’s groups are now highlighting and attacking: "Just close your eyes." Here’s his full quote, per the Philly Inquirer: "I’m not making anybody watch, OK. Because you just have to close your eyes. As long as it’s on the exterior and not the interior." Folks, this is in Pennsylvania, a state Republicans are HOPING to be able to put into play. And in Arizona, a state that Team Obama wants to put in play, a Republican bill nearing passage would require women “trying to get reimbursed for birth control drugs” through their employer-provided health plan “to prove that they are taking it for a medical reason such as acne, rather than to prevent pregnancy,” the AP says. 

    Countdown to Illinois primary: 4 days
    Countdown to Louisiana primary: 8 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 235 days

    Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
    Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
    Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

    637 comments

    The Republicans would like nothing more than to alter the face of the United States of America so that any culture beyond white cannot become a leader much less a great leader. President Obama has not only developed policies that have helped save this great country, but has also changed the format f …

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  • 15
    Mar
    2012
    2:15pm, EDT

    Pro-Santorum Super PAC hits Romney in new TV ad

    By NBC's Mark Murray
    Follow @mmurraypolitics

     

    The pro-Santorum Super PAC -- Red, White, and Blue Fund -- is up with a new TV ad in Illinois that blasts Romney for supporting TARP and alleges that Romney's health-care law served as the "blueprint" for the 2010 federal health-care law.

    The Red White and Blue Fund says the buy size is $310,000, although NBC's ad tracking partner notes that it so far has purchased a little less than that ($246,000).

    Watch on YouTube

    Still, Team Santorum (campaign and Super PAC) is getting vastly outspent by Team Romney in Illinois, $3.3 million to $446,000 -- a 7-to-1 margin.

    Here's a script for the ad:
    ANNOUNCER:  "Meet the real Mitt Romney.
    Supported the Wall Street bailout putting America trillions in debt.
    Raised job-killing taxes and fees by over 700 million, leaving Massachusetts over 1 billion in debt.
    His healthcare takeover -was the blueprint for Obamacare.
    Mitt Romney. More debt and taxes, less jobs.  More of the same.
    [FLASH - Transition]
    Rick Santorum.
    The leader with a bold plan for the middle class.
    Create dynamic jobs and cut wasteful spending.
    Rick Santorum for President.

    41 comments

    Wow, they made Romney look more wrinkled than that old guy on the motorcycle in the Healthcare ads.

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  • 14
    Mar
    2012
    5:13pm, EDT

    Blogbuzz: Making sense of Santorum's southern sweep

    By NBC's Adam Perez

    After Rick Santorum’s sweep in Alabama and Mississippi, conservative bloggers are still calling Mitt Romney the inevitable nominee -- but they're concluding that the road to Tampa won’t be easy for the GOP front-runner.

    The American Spectator's W. James Antle III says that last night's results underlined two major storylines in the Republican presidential race.

    “The most obvious, and most discussed, is Mitt Romney's inability to land the knockout blow. Every time he has a chance to cement his status as the frontrunner and consign his opponents to irrelevance, he comes up short. Crucial Republican voting blocs still think Romney is too liberal.

    But there is a second dynamic at work here: Romney's opponents, especially Rick Santorum, are only able to do well enough to keep their campaigns alive and the primaries a competitive process. But they fail to do well enough to overtake Romney, and are increasingly hinting that their strategy is really to deny Romney enough delegates to win on the first ballot and force a contested convention.”

    The end result is the worst of all possible worlds. Romney continues to limp toward the nomination against opponents whose best hope is him coming up a little short on the first ballot, but with deepening perception problems that will dog him in the general election. Santorum and Gingrich continue to remind conservatives of why they don't want Romney to be the nominee, while failing to do well enough to prevent that outcome.

    Dan McLaughlin, a right-leaning blogger for Redstate, puts it this way in the title of his post: “Mitt Romney: Winning, But not Getting More Popular.” He adds, “Fortunately For Him, The Primary Actually Is Not A Popularity Contest.”

    “That said, especially after Romney’s team made the mistake of talking up his chances in Mississippi (where he finished third), this has been a rough week for him in the popular vote, salvaged only by the continuing division among the conservative bloc. The conservatives drew at least 64% of the vote in all three states to less than 30% for the moderates, and Newt Gingrich alone ran almost even with Romney even when you include Hawaii, which Romney won. Month-to-month, Romney’s share of the vote has been declining even as the field narrows, with the conservatives drawing a clear majority of the votes cast in March (aided as well by poor showings by Ron Paul in the Deep South) despite not even being on the ballot in Virginia.

    None of this means that Romney will not be the nominee. Barack Obama lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton after March 1 by 600,000 votes, and still won the most delegates; even if this race finally devolved into a 2-man race and Romney started losing head-to-head battles with Rick Santorum, he’d still probably take the nomination. And as of now, even if Romney can’t win over a majority faction of the party, he has still outpolled any other one candidate.”

    But National Review’s Rich Lowry says Romney’s losses in Alabama and Mississippi were not a surprise.

    “But did anyone expect him to do any better than somewhere around 30 percent in Alabama and Mississippi? The states are chock-full of the kind of voters he just isn’t going to reach in these primaries, and the only way he was going to win was if he got lucky and the anti-Romney vote broke exactly the right way.  I’ve been underwhelmed by Romney victories and in this case, I’m underwhelmed by Romney defeats. None of this is to say he shouldn’t sharpen his message. By the way, the contests should conclusively prove that Santorum is a better anti-Romney than Newt, but that’s something we’ve been saying around these parts for a long time.”

    Jennifer Rubin, right-leaning opinion blogger for the Washington Post, writes that Romney’s 42 delegates last night to Santorum’s 39 proves that math will decided the GOP presidential nominee.

    “Over and over again you hear pundits say things like, ‘Well if you look at the math ... ‘ and ‘Romney wants to focus on just the math.” There should be a gong at the ready when talking heads and pundits go into that mode. The nominating process is about the delegates. Math, like gravity, can’t be ignored.’

    To be clear, Santorum cannot win the nomination by closely splitting proportional states and losing winner-take-all states. That is a formula for falling further and further behind. And that is what is happening.

    Erick Erickson of Redstate says the most striking about last night’s was that “none of the candidates can close the deal. In effect, there was a three way tie, though it worked to Romney’s disadvantage.”

    “The problem is twofold now. The base doesn’t like Romney, but the base doesn’t really like the other options either. At the same time, the base does not want this primary to end.The roller coaster continues. The one sure thing out of this is that, though Romney is not becoming a better candidate as the primaries continue, Rick Santorum sure is. As for Newt? He is becoming less relevant.It is time for Newt Gingrich to exit.

    It is time for Santorum v. Romney and let the chips fall where they may. I still think Romney is the nominee. But I think Santorum vs. Romney one on one gives Romney a run for his money he needs to become a candidate conservatives can potentially rally around.”

    64 comments

    Now that the Senate passed a 2 year transportation bill with a bipartisan vote (74-22) what will John Boehner do? He has struggled with his caucus for several weeks to pass his signature legislation, finally giving up and waiting on the Senate to act. As one person put it “The GOP’s fiv …

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  • 14
    Mar
    2012
    4:50pm, EDT

    Romney says he connects with GOP and independents

    By Michael O'Brien, msnbc.com
    Follow @mpoindc

     

    Mitt Romney said Wednesday that the primaries have shown his ability to connect with Republicans an independents alike, while Rick Santorum contended that the former Massachusetts governor faces mounting doubts within the GOP.

    Santorum spent the day after winning the primaries in Mississippi and Alabama in Puerto Rico, which hosts its primary on Sunday. Romney, who heads to that U.S. territory later this week, spent Wednesday raising money in the New York area, and tried in a lone television interview to a general election campaign.

    "This is ultimately a question about who can get the support of the Republican Party and independents to be able to win the White House," Romney said in an afternoon interview on FOX News. "And I'm very pleased with the fact that, over the last several contests, I got a million more votes than either Sen. Santorum or Speaker Gingrich from the Republicans in these contests."

    While he won Hawaii's overnight caucuses, Romney nonetheless faced a withering media narrative after failing to carry either of the two conservative strongholds, stoking doubts about his core strength witthin the GOP. He still remains the odds-on favorite to accrue the needed 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination, though Santorum sought to take advantage of his competitor's difficulty in closing the deal.

    "He looked like the odds-on favorite at the beginning of the campaign. We tend to do that as Republicans, sort of take the person next in line," Santorum said in an availability alongside Luis Fortuño, the Puerto Rican governor. "But I think what you've found is that Governor Romney is uniquely disqualified in making some of the most important arguments that we need to make in this country with the respect to the role of government in our lives."

    Santorum still faced a challenge from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with whom Santorum split the conservative vote in last night's primaries. Gingrich has vowed to continue with his campaign, and headed on Wednesday to Illinois, a major state which hosts a primary on Tuesday.

    But Romney's fundraising on Wednesday presages a prolonged and more expensive primary, for which few Republicans seemed eager.

    And for the former governor's part, he emphasized his success among conservatives who have shown up to the primaries and caucuses so far, and said the most conservative voters with whom he's struggled would end up rallying behind his candidacy in November.

    "When you ask conservatives in these prior elections, 'Who, as conservatives, did you vote [for]?' I won the conservative vote," Romney explained. "Some who are very conservative may not be in my camp, but they will be when I become the nominee, when I face Barack Obama."

    402 comments

    I have to doubt that the GOP contenders will garner more independents than President Obama. So far not one of these guys has even distanced themselves from the other. How are they supposed to contend with Obama in the national election? It is not looking good for the right.

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  • 14
    Mar
    2012
    9:03am, EDT

    First Thoughts: The race goes on

    Dave Kaup / Reuters

    Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks as he visits a Republican presidential caucus at William Jewell College in Liberty, Missouri. March 13, 2012.

    The race goes on after Santorum wins in Alabama and Mississippi… The storyline remains pretty much the same: math (which is benefiting Romney) vs. perception (which is hurting him)… Romney’s perception problem: He’s struggling against the under-financed and under-organized Santorum… Boston, we have a message problem -- and a narrative problem, too… Next up: Illinois, where there’s pressure on both Romney and Santorum… Newt’s “Sixth Sense” problem… NBC’s current delegate count: Romney 419, Santorum 184, Gingrich 136, Paul 34… And the reason why you take a foreign leader to Ohio for an NCAA basketball game: You get local front-page like this.

    By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

    *** The race goes on: So much for the “y’alls,” the “cheesy grits,” and Jeff Foxworthy. Last night, Mitt Romney had the opportunity to shut the door on his GOP rivals by winning at least one of the primaries in Alabama or Mississippi with just a mere 34% or even 33.5% of the vote. And after the polling places closed, the early exit polls and the Drudge buzz suggested he was going to accomplish that. Then the actual results came in: Rick Santorum finished first in both states, while Romney finished third. And the biggest consequence from last night is that the race now moves on to next week’s Illinois primary -- and it likely will stretch into May or June. Romney did receive a boost after winning Hawaii and America Samoa; in fact, he won a plurality of delegates last night (42 so far to Santorum’s 38 and Newt Gingrich’s 24). But the storyline after last night remains the same one after Super Tuesday: math (which is benefiting Romney) vs. perception (which is hurting him). 

    After 27 states have weighed in on the process of selecting delegates nothing has changed. Rick Santorum swept Tuesday's Southern primaries, while Mitt Romney finished third and now the race moves on to next week's Illinois primary.

    *** Can Romney fix his perception problem? And the perception that Romney is facing right now is that he can’t put away Rick Santorum -- despite all the money he has, the Restore Our Future Super PAC (which has spent $30 million in advertisements), his organizational advantage, and all the help he’s receiving from the GOP establishment. As Politico recently wrote, Romney is fighting the “loser” label; if he’s struggling against the under-financed and under-organized Santorum, the thinking goes, how will he fare going toe-to-toe with President Obama and a campaign organization that could be the most sophisticated in history? “Usually, once a politician takes on an aroma of hopelessness he keeps it. Bob Dole in 1996 limped to his nomination with few people expecting he would make a real race of it against Clinton, and he never did.” Yes, in 2008, John McCain lost several primary contests. And so did Obama. But the competition they faced was MUCH stronger than what Romney’s currently facing. As Romney limps toward the finish line, the question becomes: Can he heal, perception-wise, before the general? 

    *** Boston, we have a message problem… : Yet Romney might be facing an even bigger problem: What is his campaign about? He says he wants to “restore America’s greatness,” but what does that mean? (Go back to the ‘50s? The ‘60s? The ‘80s? The Bush years?)  He says he’ll be able to turn around the economy, but what if it’s already slowly improving as the evidence currently suggests? And the campaign makes it clear that Romney is the inevitable nominee, but what happens if that inevitable nominee loses? Team Romney has had a message problem since this campaign began, and when you make your candidacy about electability and process, you’re going to pay a BIG price for losing to candidates. Why does Romney want to be president, an office he’s been running for the past six years? Has he really answered this basic question? 

    *** … and a narrative problem: Let’s take this a step further. Even John McCain had a strong personal narrative at this stage in ’08. After all, he was a war hero and a “maverick” who was unafraid to buck his party. But ever since Gingrich blew up Romney’s Bain narrative -- remember the movie and the ads from two months ago (plus the tax returns and Swiss bank account business) -- Romney never replaced it with another narrative. And what does he replace it with? Being a successful governor? (That’s problematic because it will remind folks of his Massachusetts health-care law.) Being a man grounded in faith? (That’s problematic, too.) Who is Mitt Romney? What’s the story he wants to tell? 

    *** Tough terrain for Romney: In fairness to Team Romney, Alabama and Mississippi weren't friendly terrain for the former Massachusetts governor. As we wrote earlier, those two states -- geographically and ideologically -- looked more like the states he had previously lost (SC, GA, TN, even OK) than the states he's won (NH, FL, NV, AZ, MI, OH, etc.). Indeed, a whopping 83% of primary voters in Mississippi and 80% of primary voters in Alabama described themselves as evangelical Christians. But Team Romney also has itself to blame for raising the stakes of last night's contests: They vastly outspent their rivals, they campaigned aggressively in the state, and they potentially stood to benefit from a split Santorum-Gingrich vote. Just like in South Carolina two months ago, they allowed expectations to exceed what Romney was capable of in a state with those kinds of demographics.  By the way, for those wondering why McCain was able to get some benefit of the doubt from Southerners while Romney has not: It’s more than just faith, it’s narrative and the military. McCain’s military credentials allowed him to overcome the ideological doubts that Southerners and evangelicals had about him. Romney doesn’t have something like that.

    *** The pressure is on Santorum, too: Now we move on to Illinois, which holds its primary next Tuesday. And Illinois is going to be an important race. Once again, the pressure is on Romney. And once again, Team Romney has a HUGE advertising advantage, with the campaign and Super PAC spending nearly a combined $3 million so far (versus $16,000 for Gingrich and zero for Santorum). But the pressure is on Santorum, too. Can he defeat Romney in a state that isn’t dominated by conservatives and evangelicals? Can he pull off what he was unable to do in Michigan and Ohio? Romney hasn’t won an “away game,” but neither has Santorum. And the delegate match is NOT kind to Santorum in Illinois either. He didn’t file full delegate slates in the congressional districts; he’s 10 short. And Illinois is not an allocation system, it’s DIRECT ELECTION of the delegates INDIVIDUALLY in the congressional districts. A total nightmare, to be honest, for those tracking delegates. But it almost guarantees Romney will likely win a majority of the state’s delegates even if he loses the statewide vote, which has ZERO delegates connected to it. 

    *** Newt’s “Sixth Sense” problem: As for Gingrich, he’s now facing a “The Sixth Sense” problem: Everyone knows his candidacy is dead, except for the candidate. Yes, he finished second to Santorum in Alabama and Mississippi, but it’s hard to imagine how he makes a claim that he’s the conservative alternative to Romney in this race. After all, we’ve now had 25-plus contests, and Gingrich has won just two of them (in South Carolina and Georgia). And he’s now lost three states that border Georgia (Florida, Alabama and Tennessee). So if he can’t even win in the Deep South, where else can he win? A big storyline over the next week will be pressure -- from the right and the media -- to get out of the race.

    *** The current delegate count: According to NBC’s Decision Desk, the delegate count currently stands at Romney 419, Santorum 184, Gingrich 136, and Paul 34. By our math, this means that Romney needs to win just 48% of the remaining delegates to get to 1,114, while Santorum needs to get 63% of the remaining delegates.

    *** On the trail: Santorum travels to Puerto Rico, campaigning in San Juan… Gingrich stumps in Illinois, making stops in Rosemont and Palatine… And Paul visits the University of Illinois for a town hall event.

    *** Exhibit A why you take a foreign leader to Ohio: You get this above-the-fold, centerpiece front-page treatment from the Dayton Daily News with this headline: “The heartland is what it’s all about.” From the story: “President Barack Obama discussed energy policy with Ohio Gov. John Kasich and gave British Prime Minister David Cameron basketball tips Tuesday at an NCAA tournament game at UD Arena, during a brief election-year trip to a crucial swing state.” And the first quote of the story: “Sometimes when we have foreign visitors, they’re only visiting the coasts,” Obama said during a halftime interview. “They go to New York, they go to Washington, they go to Los Angeles, but the heartland is what it’s all about.” Today, Obama is back in DC, where he and Cameron hold a joint press conference at 12:05 pm ET and where the White House throws a state dinner for the British leader later tonight. 

    Countdown to Illinois primary: 6 days (March 20)
    Countdown to Louisiana primary: 10 days (March 24)
    Countdown to Election Day: 237 days

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    Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
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    887 comments

    Remember Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood? Well, how about a Santorum-GOP-Romney neighborhood: Medicare is privatized, education defunded, healthcare is back in the hands of insurers, programs for children, seniors, working people and the vulnerable is slashed or gone; police are gone from the streets, if  …

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  • 13
    Mar
    2012
    2:31pm, EDT

    Santorum wins Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Romney takes Hawaii

    Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum won Tuesday's primaries in Mississippi and Alabama, and called for conservatives to unite behind his campaign. Meanwhile, frontrunner Mitt Romney won Hawaii's caucuses. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

    By Michael O'Brien, msnbc.com
    Follow @mpoindc

     

    Updated at 8:02 a.m. ET -- Rick Santorum scored victories in the Mississippi and Alabama primaries on Tuesday, depriving Mitt Romney of a signature win in a conservative stronghold and raising fresh doubts about the viability of Newt Gingrich's campaign.

    The former Pennsylvania senator made his case for being the lone, serious Republican challenger to Romney for the remainder of the primary by besting Gingrich in states the former speaker's campaign had previously said were essential to its long-term viability.

    However, there were no signs that this race would lose another candidate anytime soon.


    “We did it again,” Santorum said to wild applause from supporters in Louisiana in response to projections by NBC News that he would win both Mississippi and Alabama. Romney had hoped to score a victory in Mississippi, proving his ability to win a state that composes part of the heart of the modern GOP. But he appeared to be heading to a third-place finish in both contests, failing to even surpass Gingrich.

    A former governor of Massachusetts, Romney acknowledged these contests were an “away game” for a figure like him, marking an effort to set low expectations for how he might finish in the contests.

    John David Mercer / AP

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters during a campaign stop at the Whistle Stop Cafe in Mobile, Ala.

    The Romney campaign was able to pick up delegates in both states, contributing to its march to collect the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination.

    "I am pleased that we will be increasing our delegate count in a very substantial way after tonight," Romney said in a written statement. "With the delegates won tonight, we are even closer to the nomination."

    His campaign accrued additional delegates in Hawaii. NBC News declared Romney as projected winner of Hawaii's caucuses early Wednesday. He took about 45 percent of the votes in the state. Santorum earned about 25 percent. 

    NBC's David Gregory and Chuck Todd tell TODAY's Matt Lauer how Rick Santorum's victories in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries will change the GOP race for the White House.

    The Associated Press also reported that Romney picked up all six delegates from American Samoa, plus the endorsement of three members of the Republican National Committee.

    A total of 107 delegates were up for grabs between Mississippi, Alabama and Hawaii on Tuesday.

    View NBC's delegate count

    An outright victory for Romney would have helped close the door on the primary campaign and begin to pivot to the general election, even if it would have come because of a split in the conservative vote.

    'Misrepresenting the truth'
    Romney has sought to project an air of inevitability surrounding his campaign nonetheless.

    "Sen. Santorum is at the desperate end of his campaign and is trying in some way to boost his prospects and, frankly, misrepresenting the truth is not a good way of doing that," Romney said Tuesday night on CNN.

    But Santorum has shown little interest in backing down.

    “For someone who thinks this race is inevitable, he spent a while lot of money against me for being inevitable,” Santorum said, making reference to the money spent by a pro-Romney super PAC in the two states. (A super PAC also spent on Santorum’s behalf, but not nearly to the extent of Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney group.)

    The ex-senator has begun openly expressing his desire for the Republican campaign to narrow into a one-on-one showdown between him and Romney. Santorum also sharpened his attacks against Romney, going after Romney's record in the private sector -- questions about which, just two months ago, Santorum had effectively declared off-limits.

    But Santorum still faces a challenge in finding a way to ease Gingrich from the race. Exit poll data in Mississippi found that Santorum won the most conservative voters on Tuesday, while "somewhat conservative" voters split three ways. Similar patterns held true in Alabama. Santorum has argued that, with Gingrich out of the race, he would stand to collect many of the former speaker's voters, and be able to beat Romney.

    Santorum sharpens attacks against Romney

    Gingrich has been defiant, vowing to fight all the way to the Republican National Convention this summer in Tampa, where his campaign argues he could emerge as the nominee if Romney fails to secure a majority of delegates.

    "I emphasize going to Tampa because one of the things tonight proves is that the elite media's effort to prove that Mitt Romney is inevitable just collapsed," Gingrich said in Birmingham. "If you're the front-runner and you keep coming in third, then you're not much of a front-runner."

    Newt Gingrich speaks to supporters in Birmingham, Ala. following a loss to Rick Santorum in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries

    Early exit poll data had raised the Romney campaign's optimism in Mississippi as the possible beneficiary of a split vote between Santorum and Gingrich, and a slightly better-than-expected performance among key blocs such as evangelical or born-again Christians, as well as less educated or less moneyed voters.

    Romney viewed as most electable but not enough to help him break through big in Dixie

    His campaign stressed the fact that few political observers had expected Romney to win either contest, but aside from some early strongholds this primary cycle Romney has yet to score the kind of signature win needed to demonstrate that core GOP conservatives have acceded to his nomination.

    His campaign still has the inside track to win the delegate battle, though that would threaten a prolonged and costly fight for the nomination at a time when many Republicans have worried about the toll this nominating cycle has taken on the party’s brand.

    The race now turns to a primary this weekend in Puerto Rico – to which both Romney and Santorum will travel – and a caucus in Missouri that will determine the state’s allocation of delegates (unlike an earlier, nonbinding primary, which Santorum won).

    After Puerto Rico, the next primary is slated for Tuesday in Illinois, where Romney has already blanketed the airwaves. Gingrich’s public schedule also calls for stops in Illinois later this week, though Santorum said Tuesday he considers it an uphill battle to win the popular vote in that state.

    1706 comments

    Oh please tell us how you would bring gas down to 2.50 a gallon newtie? When bush invaded Iraq it was anout a buck a gallon...that's what the faux war on terror has done to our economy

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  • 13
    Mar
    2012
    3:10pm, EDT

    Santorum sharpens attacks on Romney to include Bain record

    By Michael O'Brien, msnbc.com
    Follow @mpoindc

     

    Rick Santorum's rhetoric toward Mitt Romney has grown sharper in recent weeks -- to the point where he’s now making an attack on Romney’s record that he once suggested was off-limits.

    Case in point: On Tuesday, Santorum blasted Romney’s private-sector record at Bain Capital. “Gov. Romney has a career as an investment banker and someone who's a private equity guy on Wall Street. I'm not too sure that necessarily commends you well to be president of the United States,” Santorum said in an interview on the nationally syndicated show “Kilmeade & Friends.”

    “I don't know of one group of people that's more disliked than politicians -- it may be the folks who gave us the Wall Street bailout. And that's where Mitt Romney comes from.”

    But contrast that attack with Santorum’s Jan. 11 defense of Romney after then-candidate Rick Perry compared Romney’s private-equity work at Bain to “vultures”:

    You have capitalism, where you have companies that are takeover opportunities because the management hasn't done a good job of managing the company.

    Bain Capital, at least from the record I looked at, had a lot of success. I mean they weren't a company that has a long track of record basically destroying the companies and selling off the pieces. They had some situations where they had failures, but every company does.

    I hate to sit here and be a defender of Mitt Romney, but to me this is federal capitalism, and I have to say that this is an attack that is probably not warranted.

    There is plenty in Mitt Romney's record as governor of Massachusetts to attack and go after. ... I don't think going after capitalism and companies, that in many cases, do a public in saving companies is the way to go about doing that.

    Yet two months later, as Romney looks to shut the door on his Republican challengers, Santorum identified Romney’s private sector background as a key element of his weakness versus President Obama.

    “We'll have a Wall Street banker going up against the president of the United States -- not the best matchup for us,” Santorum told host Brian Kilmeade on Tuesday morning.

    This reversal for Santorum comes weeks after Romney and his allies have bombarded Santorum with negative advertisements; as Santorum has positioned himself as the conservative alternative to Romney; and as Santorum hopes to turn the GOP primary race into a one-on-one battle against the former Massachusetts governor.

    What’s more, on Monday evening, Santorum took to conservative talk radio to essentially call Romney a socialist -- an insult Republicans usually save for President Obama, not each other.

    "I didn't pass RomneyCare, which is a government takeover of 1/6th of the economy," Santorum told conservative pundit Mark Levin in reference to the health reform law Romney signed as governor, which features many similarities to President Obama's national health reform law. "With Mitt Romney, his solution to a health care problem is to take over 1/6th of the economy. You can't call yourself a conservative. You can call yourself a socialist, but you can't call yourself a conservative."

    The attacks seem directed toward addressing Romney's advantage over Santorum in previous primary contests when it comes to economic expertise. Romney took a swipe at Santorum on Tuesday when he said that the former senator's economic record all but disqualified Santorum for a spot as Romney's running mate.

    "Well, that would preclude, of course, Rick Santorum," Romney said on Fox News when asked whether he needs to pick an identifiable conservative as his running mate. "Rick Santorum is not a person who is an economic conservative to my right. I give him credit for being conservative, but not a fiscal conservative. His record suggests he does not have the fiscal conservative chops that I have."

    To that end, a Bloomberg News poll released Tuesday found that Republicans nationally view Romney as better-suited to handle the economy, and, maybe more importantly, view his career at Bain Capital as an asset.

    Sixty-four percent of Republicans or lean-Republican adults said in the Bloomberg poll that Romney’s private equity career makes him better qualified to create jobs; 26 percent disagreed.

    And 43 percent of Republicans in the same poll said they view Romney as the candidate best-suited to get the economy going, versus 16 percent of Republicans who said the same for Santorum.

    169 comments

    Rick, the fact that you believe, "single parents breed criminals", definitely disqualifies you from becoming the president of almost anything except greener pastures in your vineyards.

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  • 12
    Mar
    2012
    3:46pm, EDT

    Santorum says U.S. should apologize for civilian killings in Afghanistan

    By NBC's Andrew Rafferty and Garrett Haake

    BILOXI, MS -- Rick Santorum today said that the United States should apologize for the massacre of 16 Afghan civilians killed by an American soldier on Sunday.

    "This was something that was deliberately done by an American soldier to innocent civilians," Santorum said to reporters after delivering an energy address here. "It’s something that the proper authorities should apologize for."

    An often-repeated rallying cry from Santorum on the campaign trail has been that he would not apologize for America. He has been critical of President Obama for apologizing what U.S. military officials say was an accidental burning of Korans by soldiers in Afghanistan last month.

    The difference, the former Pennsylvania senator seemed to indicate, is that the Koran burning was accidental, while the massacre in southern Afghanistan was not.

    One U.S soldier is in custody for the shooting, though accounts from Afghan villagers maintain that a group of soldiers were involved. The Obama administration has promised a thorough investigation and vowed to hold accountable everyone involved.

    Meanwhile, Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul released this statement on the civilian killings in Afghanistan: "Gov. Romney believes the killings are reprehensible and shares the anguish of the victims' families. These acts by one soldier are not representative of the courageous and honorable conduct of our armed forces. That soldier should be held to account after a full and rapid investigation, and we must be clear that America stands with the Afghan people, not against them."

    75 comments

    Psst... Little Ricky - the military already has! Maybe, one of his cracker-jack advisers can bring him up to speed! PS: So Santorum is condoning... what is that word I'm looking for... the one the right wing nuts toss around like confetti? Oh, yeah, APPEASEMENT!

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  • 12
    Mar
    2012
    11:33am, EDT

    Santorum camp: Time is on our side

    By NBC's Andrew Rafferty
    Follow @AndrewNBCNews

     

    For the last several days, the Romney campaign has been arguing that the delegate math is on their side.

    But in a new memo, the Santorum campaign is now countering with this message: Time is on theirs.

    The memo from John Yob, who was recently hired to head up the Santorum campaign's delegate-counting strategy, argues that the longer the former Pennsylvania senator stays in the race, the more he stands to benefit.

    The primary calendar has been frontloaded to favor Mitt Romney, Yob argues, but a series of contests in May will put the candidate on a path to be competitive for the GOP nomination heading into the August convention.

    Also on Santorum's side is the possibility of Newt Gingrich abandoning his bid for the White House. That, Yob contends, would cause many of the former House speaker's delegates to fall Santorum's way. Plus, excited party conservatives could help Santorum pick up more delegates from states that held non-binding primaries and caucuses.

    "Despite the Romney campaign's smokescreen, they cannot change the fact that he can't inspire the base of the party, has a delegate problem, and has a very difficult time getting to the majority," Yob says in the memo.

    Yob, who held a similar post in John McCain's 2008 campaign, said at this point four years ago there was a very real concern in the Arizona senator's camp about "the possibility of a more conservative candidate staying in the race and fighting us at state conventions across the country." Yob notes that, like McCain, Romney does not have the support of the most active and conservative party members who play a key role in determining national convention delegates.

    "Anyone who knows anything about state conventions knows that the most conservative candidate has a big advantage over a moderate candidate. In many cases, this advantage is overwhelming," Yob adds. The memo goes on to cite gains by Santorum and Paul during this weekend's county conventions in Iowa as proof.

    The Romney campaign has argued that the math simply does not play out favorably for Santorum, and NBC News has calculated that Santorum will need to win more than 60% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.

    Also included in the memo is a state-by-state outline of how the Santorum campaign thinks the race will shape up. Tuesday, Yob predicts, will do little to change the dynamic of the race. It infers that Gingrich will drop out after the March 24 Louisiana primary, if not before. Those former Gingrich delegates will likely favor Santorum, Yob feels.

    The May 8 contests held in North Carolina, Indiana ,and West Virginia will kick off a month of strong momentum for the campaign that will all culminate in a huge delegate win in Texas on May 29, the campaign believes.

    "The situation is only going to get worse for [Romney] and better for Rick Santorum as time passes," Yob writes. "Simply put, time is on our side."

    34 comments

    Keep it up Mr. Santorum! All the way to a brokered Republican Convention. Like Newt supporter Sarah Palin would like to see. She thinks it would be a great thing for the country and I agree. Obama 2012.

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  • 12
    Mar
    2012
    9:09am, EDT

    First Thoughts: Big stakes on Tuesday

    Big stakes on Tuesday for Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich… Could Romney have written off Alabama and Mississippi (and focused instead on, say, Illinois)?... NBC’s updated delegate count: Romney 377, Santorum 146, Gingrich 112, and Paul 31… Paul admits his crowds haven’t translated at the ballot box… Is Obama’s good luck beginning to change?... New WaPo/ABC poll shows that gas prices have had an effect on his standing, while the killing of civilians in Afghanistan doesn’t help the mission there, either.

    By NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

    *** Big stakes on Tuesday: After the weekend contests where Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum fought to a delegate draw -- with Santorum winning Kansas, and with Romney winning Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and more delegates out of Wyoming -- we now turn to Tuesday's primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. And the stakes, once again, are pretty high for the candidates. Romney sneaking out a win in either of the contests would prove that he can win in the South and that conservative GOP voters are beginning to coalesce around his candidacy. But losses in them would confirm that Romney continues to have problems with these voters and -- more importantly -- that the primary season will last through April if not longer. For Santorum, wins in both Alabama and Mississippi would prove that he's the chief conservative alternative to Romney, and that he has the momentum to keep this race going. But losing them would suggest his campaign is running out of gas. And for Gingrich, winning both states would keep his candidacy alive, but losses in these southern states would reveal that he’s become a political zombie, propped up solely by Sheldon Adelson and the pro-Gingrich Super PAC. Those are the stakes for tomorrow.

    Don Emmert / AFP - Getty Images

    Republican presidential candidates Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich now turn to Tuesday's primaries in Alabama and Mississippi.

    *** Could Romney have written off Alabama and Mississippi? And right now, we have no idea how tomorrow’s races will play out. The polling has been all over the place, while last week’s Super Tuesday contests in Tennessee and Oklahoma suggest that Santorum should be the favorite and Romney and Gingrich the underdogs. If Romney ends up losing both primaries, it will raise this question: Did he make a mistake by campaigning too much -- and thus raising the stakes -- in a region where he’s struggled. After all, he’s campaigned aggressively in both Mississippi and Alabama (with comedian Jeff Foxworthy today), and he and the pro-Romney Super PAC have dropped nearly $2 million in advertising in these two states, vastly outspending the competition. Yes, win or lose, Romney is likely to pick up delegates in these states. But he also could have written them off and campaigned instead in Illinois, where a new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll shows him narrowly leading Santorum, 35%-31%. It appears Romney’s over-performance in both public and private polls in Tennessee convinced the campaign that it had a shot in the Volunteer State only to lose it by a bigger margin than any late poll had predicted. Just something to keep in mind.

    Mitt Romney added a last minute campaign stop in Mobile, Alabama, which advisers says was in recognition of the campaign's belief that he could still pick up a win in that state on Tuesday. The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd reports.

    *** Updated delegate count: Over the weekend, according to NBC News, Rick Santorum won 36 delegates (33 in Kansas and three in Wyoming), while Mitt Romney won 35 (25 in the island territories, seven in Kansas, and three additional delegates in Wyoming). That brings the NBC delegate to Romney 377, Santorum 146, Gingrich 112, and Paul 31. Remember, our delegate count is based on what the local and state parties are doing -- not simply allocating blindly if the process between the caucus and the state convention is vastly different, which in many cases it is.

    *** Paul’s crowds haven’t translated at the ballot box: By the way, Paul has still yet to win a contest. And he addressed this on Saturday while in Missouri. “Some days I wished I could understand exactly why these crowds of three and four and sometimes five thousand people coming out doesn’t translate into more votes,” he said, per NBC’s Anthony Terrell. “I’m just wondering, why that happens. The one thing I know is the revolution is alive and well and they will not stop us!” The words of a candidate who is starting to have doubts as to why he’s still running…

    *** On the trail: On his 65th birthday today, Romney is in Alabama, where he campaigns with comedian Jeff Foxworthy in Mobile… And Gingrich and Santorum both stump in both Mississippi and Alabama, where they both attend a Gulf Coast Energy Summit in Biloxi, MS and a state GOP event in Birmingham, AL.

    *** Is Obama’s luck beginning to change? President Obama has been a pretty lucky man these first few months of 2012. The U.S. economy and the labor market have been picking up steam; Republicans appeared to have overplayed their hands on social issues (like contraception and abortion); and the GOP primary race has damaged the party’s brand. But in the past 24 hours, we’ve received a couple of reminders that luck -- especially regarding things outside your control -- can change. The first: a new Washington Post/ABC poll showing that the rising gas prices seemed to have dented Obama’s standing. “Disapproval of President Obama’s handling of the economy is heading higher — alongside gasoline prices — as a record number of Americans now give the president “strongly” negative reviews on the 2012 presidential campaign’s most important issue,” the Washington Post writes of its poll, which has Obama’s approval rating now at 46% and has Romney up by two points in a head to head. Although gas prices do change (and the price of oil today has fallen), they do impact a president’s approval rating. And let’s not forget the GOP’s message discipline on this issue; does an hour go by without Republicans putting out a hit on Obama and gas prices? *** UPDATE *** Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz emails First Read to argue that, per his observations, high gas prices really don't impact a president's approval rating.

    *** Less and less support for the war in Afghanistan? And then there are the issues overseas, which can change a president’s fortunes overnight. Keep a close eye on how the news that a U.S. Army sergeant killed at least 16 civilians (nine of them children) in Afghanistan could change opinion on that issue. And this comes after some in the U.S. military mistakenly burned the Koran, and it comes as the Obama administration is hoping to make an orderly exit from Afghanistan. The political reaction we’ve heard from both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum on these civilian killings suggests that there is less and less American support for the war there. What little appetite the public had for Afghanistan might get even smaller.

    Countdown to Alabama, Hawaii, and Mississippi: 1 day
    Countdown to Election Day: 239 days

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    586 comments

    House Budget Committee Republicans met Thursday morning on options for the new fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, and the GOP is coalescing around a plan that would cap appropriations at a level of $1.028 trillion — nearly $20 billion below what was agreed to last August as part of the Budget Co …

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Chuck Todd

Chuck Todd became NBC News’ political director in March 2007. He also serves as NBC News' on-air political analyst for "NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams," "Today," "Meet the Press and MSNBC, including "Hardball with Chris Matthews."

Mark Murray

Mark Murray is NBC News' Senior Political Editor. Since joining the network in 2003, he has reported on and written about political races, trends, and issues -- including the 2003 California recall, the 2004 Bush-Kerry presidential race, the 2006 midterm elections, the 2008 presidential contest, the 2010 midterms, and the 2012 presidential race.

Domenico Montanaro

Domenico Montanaro is NBC News' Deputy Political Editor. He writes, reports and edits for First Read, the network's political blog, provides editorial guidance for NBC's broadcast shows and online content, and appears on air. He has covered the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections for NBC and has reported from Capitol Hill.

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