Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

President Barack Obama shakes hands after holding a round table discussion with first time voters at OMG Burger in Miami on Sept. 20, 2012.

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin, reaching the key 50 percent support threshold in all three battlegrounds, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of these states.

In both Colorado and Wisconsin, Obama is ahead by 5 points among likely voters (including those leaning toward a candidate), 50 percent to 45 percent.

And in Iowa, the president’s edge over Romney is 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Read the Colorado poll results here (.pdf)

Among a wider sample of registered voters, Obama’s lead is even larger – 6 points in Colorado, 8 in Wisconsin and 11 in Iowa.

While Obama still hasn't closed the deal, says Marist College pollster Lee Miringoff, “The advantage is his in all three states.”

He adds, “It is very important in an election when you start closing in on 50 [percent]. In politics that is a big number.”

The results from these new polls are similar to the NBC/WSJ/Marist surveys of Florida, Ohio and Virginia that were released last week. Those showed Obama ahead in all three battlegrounds. And they’re consistent with this week’s national NBC/WSJ poll (conducted by different pollsters) that found Obama up by 5 points among likely voters, 50 percent to 45 percent.

Romney’s favorability vs. Obama’s
These new surveys – conducted after the political firestorm over last week’s attacks on U.S. embassies in Libya and Egypt, and during the melee over a leaked video of Romney talking about the “47 percent” of Americans who are dependent on government and believe they are victims – also show the Republican’s favorability rating in an unenviable place.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

A plurality of likely voters view Romney in a negative light in all three states. In Colorado, it’s 43 percent favorable to 50 percent unfavorable; in Iowa, it’s 42 percent to 50 percent; and in Wisconsin, it’s 43 percent to 46 percent.

By contrast, out of last week’s polls in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, just one of them – Ohio – found Romney’s favorable/unfavorable rating under water.

Read the Wisconsin poll results here (.pdf)

Meanwhile, Obama’s favorable/unfavorable scores in Colorado (51 percent to 45 percent), Iowa (53 percent to 42 percent), and Wisconsin (51 percent to 44 percent) are all above water.

Romney casts himself as 'change' candidate in seizing on Obama comment

Yet the president’s job approval rating in these states is a bit lower – 47 percent in Colorado, 48 percent in Wisconsin, and 49 percent in Iowa.

Tied on the economy
According to these polls, Obama and Romney are essentially battling to a tie on the question of which candidate would do a better job in handling the economy. In Wisconsin, 46 percent of likely voters pick Romney, while 45 percent select Obama.

But in Colorado, the president gets 48 percent, and the GOP nominee gets 46 percent. And in Iowa, Obama is up by four points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

Read the Iowa poll results here (.pdf)

Yet when it comes to which candidate would do a better job on foreign policy, the president enjoys a double-digit advantage in all three states.

Other notable numbers

• In Republican running mate Paul Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin, his favorable/unfavorable score among likely voters is 49 percent to 40 percent (versus 51 percent to 44 percent for Obama, 43 percent to 46 percent for Romney, and 42 percent to 45 percent for Vice President Joe Biden).
• In Wisconsin’s competitive Senate contest, Democrat Tammy Baldwin gets support from 48 percent of likely voters, and Republican Tommy Thompson gets 46 percent.
• Obama is ahead among independents in all three states – by 1 point in Wisconsin, 10 points in Iowa and 11 points in Colorado.
• And there’s a significant gender gap in these three states, with the president up by double digits among women and with Romney slightly ahead among men.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Sept. 16-18 of 971 likely voters in Colorado (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points), 898 likely voters in Iowa (plus-minus 3.3 percentage points) and 968 likely voters in Wisconsin (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points).

About a quarter of all likely voters in these three states were interviewed by cell phone.

NBC’s Natalie Cucchiara contributed to this report.

After last week's political firestorm over attacks on U.S. embassies in Egypt and Libya, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that President Obama's approval rating on foreign policy has dropped five points since August.

In the poll, 49 percent approve of the president's job in handling foreign policy, versus 46 percent who disapprove.

Last month, 54 percent said they approved of his foreign-policy handling.

Much of that drop can be attributed to increased political polarization just seven weeks until Election Day. 

Indeed, 86 percent of Democrats approve of Obama on foreign policy, compared with just 10 percent of Republicans. Yet in August, nearly twice as many Republicans -- 19 percent -- approved.

Still, in the current NBC/WSJ poll, only 41 percent of independents approve of Obama's foreign-policy handling, versus 53 percent who did so last month.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted Sept. 12-16 of 900 registered voters (including 270 by cell phone) and which has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

The percentage of voters believing that the country is better off since Barack Obama became president jumped seven points after the two political conventions, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Thirty-eight percent of registered voters now say the nation is better off, which is up from 31 percent in the August NBC/WSJ poll conducted before the conventions.

Still, a plurality of voters -- 41 percent -- believe the country is worse off, while 21 percent think it's in the same place.

"Are you better off than you were four years ago?" has been a question that Republicans raised right before the Democratic convention began earlier this month. And top officials and surrogates from the Obama campaign had a difficult time, initially, answering the question.

But in his convention address the day before Obama's acceptance speech, former President Bill Clinton answered the question affirmatively. “No president -- not me or any of my predecessors -- could have repaired all the damage in just four years. But conditions are improving, and if you'll renew the president's contract you will feel it.”

And the Obama campaign followed up with a new TV ad -- on the fourth anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse -- also making the case that the country is better off.

The new NBC/WSJ poll asks a separate question: Which candidate -- Obama or Mitt Romney -- is better prepared to lead the country four years from now? On this question, 47 percent of voters pick the president, while 36 percent choose Romney.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was taken of 900 registered voters (270 by cell phone) from Sept. 12-16 and which has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

That release will include the poll's initial look at the presidential contest among likely voters.

After two political conventions and heading into the post-Labor Day sprint, President Barack Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the key battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of each of these three states. 

Click for poll results: Virginia | Ohio | Florida (pdfs)

In both Florida and Virginia, Obama is ahead of Romney by five points among likely voters (including those leaning toward a particular candidate), 49 percent to 44 percent.

In Ohio, the president’s lead is seven points, 50 percent to 43 percent.

Ed Andrieski / AP

President Barack Obama waves after speaking at a campaign rally in Golden, Colo., Thursday, Sept. 13, 2012.

Among a larger pool of registered voters, Obama’s advantage over Romney slightly increases to 7 points in Virginia, 8 in Florida and 9 in Ohio.

“You’d rather be in Obama’s shoes than Romney’s in these three critical states,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says of the poll results.

First Thoughts: A tricky situation

But he adds that Obama’s leads are not “insurmountable,” especially as the two candidates prepare for their first presidential debate on Oct. 3 in Colorado.

Charles Dharapak / AP

Mitt Romney embraces women wearing traditional Vietnamese "ao dai" dresses as he campaigns at Van Dyck Park in Fairfax, Va., Thursday, Sept. 13, 2012.

These states – all of which Obama carried in 2008 but which George W. Bush won in 2004 – represent three of the most crucial battlegrounds in the 2012 presidential election. And according to NBC’s electoral map, Romney likely needs to capture at least two of these states, if not all three, to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.

By comparison, Obama can reach 270 by winning just one or two of these battlegrounds  – on top of the other states already considered to be in his column.

(Obama also has an additional path to victory without any of these three states if he wins the toss-up contests of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.)

What’s particularly striking about these polls, Miringoff observes, is how most voters in these battleground states have already made up their minds, with just 5 to 6 percent saying they’re undecided, and with more than 80 percent signaling that they strongly support their candidate.

“Those who are thinking of voting have pretty much picked sides,” he says.

Economy vs. foreign policy
In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are essentially tied among likely voters on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, although Obama has a four-point advantage on this question in Ohio.

But when it comes to handling foreign policy, the incumbent Democratic president enjoys a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger.

Also in the polls, Obama’s job-approval ratings – 50 percent in Ohio and 49 percent in Florida and Virginia – exactly match his ballot position against Romney in these states.

And in each of these three battlegrounds, a majority of likely voters say the country is on the wrong track, while more than 40 percent believe that it’s headed in the right direction.

Jason Reed / Reuters

First lady Michelle Obama visits with young children in after-school care at the Rappahannock Area YMCA in Spotsylvania, Va., on Sept. 13, 2012.

Looking at the Senate races
The polls also measure the key U.S. Senate contests in these three states, all of which could determine the balance of power in that chamber.

First Read: Michelle Obama echoes convention testimony in solo campaign stop

In Florida, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leads Republican challenger Connie Mack among likely voters by double digits, 51 percent to 37 percent.

In Ohio, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead of GOP challenger Josh Mandel by seven points, 49 percent to 42 percent.

And in Virginia, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen are tied at 46 percent each.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Florida, Ohio and Virginia were conducted from Sept. 9-11 of nearly 1,000 likely voters in each state (about 30 percent by cell phone), and they have a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

A likely voter is determined based on interest in the upcoming election, the chance of voting, and prior participation in past elections.

More than 1,300 registered voters were surveyed in each of the three states, and the margin of error for those voters is plus-minus 2.7 percentage points.

President Barack Obama continues to lead presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney by wide margins with Latinos, according to the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Telemundo poll.

Hispanics, the largest-growing segment of the U.S. population over the past decade, said they preferred Obama over Romney in the presidential race, 63 to 28 percent.

That margin has been relatively consistent since May when the poll started sampling additional Latino interviews. It’s also, though, far below the stated Romney campaign goal of winning 38 percent of the Hispanic vote.

"Our goal is to do better than four years ago and the McCain campaign did — our goal is to hit 38 percent with the Hispanic vote," Jose Fuentes, a national co-chairman of Romney's Hispanic leadership team, told The Hill newspaper. "That's our goal. That's our national average."

Full NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Telemundo Hispanic oversample poll here.

By every measure and every issue – from foreign policy to immigration, the economy to taxes – Hispanic registered voters said they overwhelmingly preferred Obama over his Republican opponent. But there continues to be a warning sign for the president’s reelection campaign: Latinos are among the least enthusiastic voting groups in the country this cycle.

“The president continues to perform strongly among Latinos, but his campaign continues to face the challenge of engaging interest and turn-out,” said Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. “As we head into the conventions, the evidence suggests Latino voters continue to lag behind in terms of their self-described interest in this election.”

Despite President Obama’s June immigration announcement – which halted the deportation of illegal immigrants younger than 30 and who were brought to the United States as children – there has not been an uptick in Latino enthusiasm. That policy took effect Aug. 15, but Latino interest in this election is at its lowest point in the NBC-WSJ-Telemundo poll.

Just 61 percent of Latinos indicated a high level of enthusiasm in the upcoming election (registering an “8,” “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale). That’s 20 points below the average of 81 percent of all voters. And almost 20 points below 2008 levels for Latinos at about the same time before the election.

In this poll, in fact, one in 10 Latinos declared themselves a “1” – the highest level recorded this cycle.

And less than half (49%) count themselves as the highest-interest voters (9s and 10s). That’s the lowest among all voting groups in the NBC/WSJ poll.

They are similar, but below even the interest level of young voters, age 18-34. Fifty-two percent of young voters say they are 9s or 10s. Both should be red flags for the Obama campaign, as both young voters and Latinos are pillars of the president’s reelection hopes.

Still, Romney is seeing his worst likeability scores with Latinos. His negative rating is at an all-time high with the group – 48 percent (with 31 percent viewing him very negatively). Just 31 percent viewed him positively.

Obama, on the other hand, is viewed positively by more than two-thirds of Hispanics (67 percent).

Also, the U.S. Census found that Latinos now make up almost 17 percent of all Americans, and, since 2000, they have grown four times faster than the rest of the country.

They voted well below those population figures in 2008, however, making up just 9 percent of all voters.

But because of those demographics, even if intensity is down, they will still make up a significant chunk of the electorate that cannot be ignored, McInturff said.

“We don't know the percentage of the electorate that is going to be Latino -- one could argue it might be as low as 7 percent or as high as 10 percent,” McInturff said, “but, even if it drops from 2008 levels down to 8 percent, among likely Latino voters, the president is up by 40 points. That's a margin Gov. Romney has to narrow or he is placing a lot of pressure to perform exceptionally well among white voters to win the campaign.”

Romney VP pick doesn’t move Latinos

If Romney was hoping to move Hispanic voters with his vice-presidential pick, he didn’t do it with Paul Ryan.

A majority (54 percent) said the pick of the Wisconsin congressman will not affect their vote; 28 percent said it makes them less likely to vote for Romney; just 15 percent said it makes them more likely to do so.

Further, almost half (44 percent) say Ryan is “out of step,” as compared to just a third who say he’s “in the mainstream.”

On Medicare, a key issue involving Ryan’s controversial budget plan, a majority of Hispanics believe the program needs to be reformed, but almost six-in-10 Hispanic side with President Obama over the alternative posed by Romney-Ryan.

Fifty-seven percent said they agreed more with the president’s argument that Medicare “is a bad idea because it would end Medicare as we know it by turning it into a voucher system giving seniors a set amount of money to pay for their health care costs and leaving them to personally cover costs above this amount.”

There were Latino Republicans in consideration for Romney’s vice-presidential slot, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez. Both will speak at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla.

The live-caller telephone survey of 300 Hispanic registered voters was conducted from Aug. 16 to 20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percent.

Matt Sullivan / Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks at Capital University on August 21, 2012 in Columbus, Ohio.

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

Read full poll here (.pdf)

While the state of the U.S. economy and the nation’s direction continue to pose significant obstacles for the president, the poll points to even steeper challenges for Romney, including concerns about his tax returns and a lack of support for his plans to overhaul Medicare.

“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front.”

Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”

But McInturff argues that there’s still a path to victory for Romney, especially with Obama’s numbers below that all-important 50 percent threshold for an incumbent.

“When a guy gets stuck at 48 percent, it doesn’t mean they are out of the clear,” he says. “It means they are in an incredibly competitive campaign.”

The swing states, the demographics and the Ryan pick
In a smaller sample of voters living in 12 key battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin –  Obama leads Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent. 

That’s a narrower edge in these battlegrounds than the eight-point lead the president enjoyed in the June and July NBC/WSJ polls.

Looking inside the numbers, Obama continues to lead Romney among key parts of his political base, including African Americans (94 percent to 0 percent), Latinos (by a 2-to-1 margin), voters under 35-years-old (52 percent to 41 percent) and women (51 percent to 41 percent).

Romney is ahead with whites (53 percent to 40 percent), rural voters (47 percent to 38 percent) and seniors (49 percent to 41 percent).

And the two presidential candidates are essentially even when it comes to the swing groups of suburban voters, Midwest residents and political independents.

As for Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate, which was made on Aug. 11, the poll suggests that – so far – the pick has had less of an impact on voters than previous running mates have had.

Twenty-two percent say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, while 23 percent say he makes them less likely to vote for Romney; 54 percent say the pick doesn’t affect their vote either way.

That margin (-1) is compared with Joe Biden’s in 2008 (+8), Sarah Palin’s in 2008 (+9 percent), John Edwards’ in 2004 (+21), and Joe Lieberman’s in 2000 (+13).

Ryan’s numbers come closest to Dick Cheney’s in 2000 (+2).

Moreover, in the poll’s feeling thermometer, Ryan’s favorable/unfavorable score stands at 33 percent/32 percent.

Hart, the Democratic pollster, attributes Ryan’s mixed numbers to today’s increasingly partisan divide, with Republicans backing him, Democrats opposing him and independents fairly divided.

Romney’s two challenges
According to the poll, Mitt Romney has two challenges heading into next week’s Republican convention in Florida: repairing his image and selling his proposal to overhaul Medicare.

NBC/WSJ poll: Voters split on Ryan

For starters, Romney continues to have a net-negative favorable/unfavorable score (38percent/44 percent) – which no other modern Republican presumptive presidential nominee has had.

What’s more, Obama bests Romney by 35 points (58 percent to 23 percent) on the question of which candidate is more likeable, and by 22 points (52 percent to 30 percent) on caring about average people.

In addition, a majority of voters (51 percent) view the former Massachusetts governor’s approach to issues as being “out of step” with most Americans’ thinking. By comparison, 54 percent say Obama’s positions are “in the mainstream.”

And by a 36 percent to 6 percent difference, voters say what they have seen, heard and read about Romney’s tax returns – he has refused to release returns prior to 2010 – has given them a more negative impression of the Republican candidate. Forty-one percent say it doesn’t make much of a difference.

Problematically for Romney, similar negative margins exist with swing voters like independents, suburban voters and Midwest residents.

“That is as much negative as anything that comes out in this poll,” Hart says of Romney’s tax returns.

Testing the Medicare debate
Another negative for Romney in the poll is his plan to make substantial changes to Medicare, the government health-insurance program for seniors.

When voters are given a description of the Romney-Ryan plan – that future seniors would receive a guaranteed payment that some call a voucher, and that these seniors could use it to purchase either private insurance or to have access in the traditional Medicare program – twice as many call it a bad idea (30 percent) versus good idea (15 percent).

However, 51 percent of voters said they have no opinion.

In a separate question, 34 percent of voters say they agree with the statement that Romney believes this Medicare proposal “is a good idea because it would strengthen Medicare and reduce government costs … by giving future seniors more control over their own health-care dollars.”

NBC/WSJ poll: Approval of Congress hits bottom

In contrast, 50 percent say they agree with the statement that Obama believes this proposal “is a bad idea because it would end Medicare as we know it by turning it into a voucher system giving seniors a set amount of money to pay for their health-care costs and leaving them to personally cover costs above this amount.”

What’s more, a plurality (39 percent) say that Medicare needs only minor modifications, versus 15 percent who believe it needs a complete overhaul, another 15 percent who think it’s OK the way it is and 27 percent who say it needs major changes.

And when asked which candidate is better on issues affecting seniors, 46 percent pick Obama and 34 percent choose Romney.

Obama’s own challenge: the economy
Yet Obama has challenges, too, and they’re the same ones that have dogged his campaign over the past year.

More than six in 10 believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, which is essentially unchanged from last month.

And just 36 percent believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months, though that’s up nine points since July’s poll.

Not surprisingly, Romney holds a six-point advantage over Obama (44 percent to 38 percent) on which candidate has better ideas on how to improve the economy.

Read full poll here (.pdf)

That said, 50 percent of voters in the poll believe the economy is recovering, and they’re split (46 percent to 46 percent) on whether the recent news about the economy has made them more optimistic or less optimistic.

The president’s overall job approval rating stands at 48 percent, and approval of his handling of the economy is at 44 percent.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted of 1,000 registered voters (300 reached by cell phone) from Aug. 16-20, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. 

According to the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 22 percent of registered voters say Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan to be his running mate makes them more likely to vote for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

That's compared with 23 percent who say the Ryan pick makes them less likely to vote for Romney, and 54 percent who say the new running mate doesn’t affect their vote either way.

These numbers suggest the Ryan pick has had less of an impact on voters than previous running mates have had.

In 2008, 24 percent in the NBC/WSJ poll said Joe Biden made them more likely to vote for Barack Obama, versus 16 percent who said he made them less likely to vote for the Democratic ticket.

The margins for Sarah Palin in 2008 (34 percent more likely vs. 25 percent less likely), John Edwards in 2004 (28 percent vs. 7 percent), and Joe Lieberman in 2000 (20 percent vs. 7 percent) were also bigger than Ryan's.

The closest Ryan’s margin comes to is Dick Cheney’s in 2000 (16 percent more likely vs. 14 percent less likely).

In the poll’s feeling thermometer, moreover, Ryan’s favorable/unfavorable score stands at 33 percent/32 percent.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who co-conducted this survey with GOP pollster Bill McInturff, attributes Ryan’s mixed numbers to today’s increasingly partisan divide, with Republicans backing him, Democrats opposing him and independents fairly divided.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted Aug. 16-20 of 1,000 registered voters (300 reached by cell phone) -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that the approval rating for Congress has tied its all-time low in the history of the survey, while its disapproval rating has tied its all-time high.

According to the poll, only 12 percent of registered voters approve of the legislative branch's job. The only other time it was that low was in Oct. 2008.

In addition, a whopping 82 percent disapprove of Congress' job, and the only other time it reached that level was in Aug. 2011 -- which was right after the bruising debt-ceiling fight. 

Much of this survey was conducted before two controversial or embarrassing incidents for House Republicans.

On Sunday, Aug. 19, Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) -- who is the GOP's nominee in Missouri's Senate race -- explained his opposition to abortion even in cases of rape by saying: "If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut [the pregnancy] down."

Also on Sunday, Politico first reported that House Republicans last year took a dip in the Sea of Galilee in an evening involving alcohol; one member, Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) was nude.

The NBC/WSJ poll also shows that 36 percent view the Republican Party in a positive light, versus 45 percent who view it negatively.

By comparison, 42 percent have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, while 40 percent have a negative opinion. Both sets of numbers are similar to last month's.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted Aug. 16-20 of 1,000 registered voters (300 by cell phone) -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

As he today addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars conference and as he prepares to embark on his week-long overseas trip, Mitt Romney continues to trail President Obama when it comes to national security and being a good commander-in-chief, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But the former Massachusetts governor leads on the question that has so far dominated this presidential contest -- the economy.

In the poll, Obama enjoys a 10-point advantage (45 to 35 percent) on who would be a better commander-in-chief, which is essentially unchanged from April.

Files / AFP - Getty Images

Mitt Romney continues to trail President Obama when it comes to national security and being a good commander-in-chief, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

And he leads by 16 points (48 to 32 percent) on being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency, which also is virtually unchanged.

"Foreign policy, which is never a Democratic strength, has been a real strength for Obama," says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

"Romney has the challenge of passing that commander-in-chief threshold," Hart adds.

Yet on the question of who has good ideas for how to improve the economy, Romney holds a seven-point edge (43 to 36 percent). In April, Romney led here by six points (40 to 34 percent).

But the president leads Romney by 16 points (49 to 33 percent) on who better looks out for the middle class. 

Obama and Romney are essentially tied on two other candidate qualities -- being consistent and standing up for his beliefs (37 percent say Obama is better, while 35 percent pick Romney) and changing business as usual in Washington (33 percent say Romney is better, versus 32 percent for Obama). 

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted of 1,000 registered voters from July 18-22 and which has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

A series of polls released late Wednesday made clear that the economy remains the most constant and influential variable in the 2012 presidential campaign, helping to explain the strategies and posture of both Mitt Romney and President Obama.

Though Romney has been besieged by millions in negative ads questioning his tenure at Bain Capital and whether he should release more tax returns, the presumptive Republican nominee remains basically even versus the president in polls. The reason? Three new polls suggest that voters' optimism about the state of the economy has slid, making Obama more vulnerable to efforts that seek to turn the campaign into a referendum on his economic management.

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

Thirty-nine percent of registered voters said in the New York Times/CBS poll released yesterday that they approve of Obama's handling of the economy, versus 55 percent who disapprove. As a matter of comparison, voters disapproved of Obama's economic management by a tighter margin — 44 percent approving, 48 percent disapproving — in the April version of the same poll.

First Thoughts: Obama-Romney race remains deadlocked

A separate poll conducted for NPR also found that voters disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, a margin that widens among voters surveyed in 12 battleground states. In those states, 52 percent said they disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy, versus 45 percent who approve.

"The economy is the albatross around the president’s neck. The Romney people are smart in focusing on the economy, because that is the softest point in the president’s campaign," said Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons. "They’re running a campaign based on the issue of the economy, not based on who you should trust with the economy. Those are two different questions – closely related – but different questions."

The past three months has seen a series of lackluster monthly jobs reports, and no real dent has been made in the unemployment rate. Though these figures don't entirely explain the souring public mood toward the economy, they suggest that the economy remains an albatross for Obama — one that has weighed more heavily on the Democratic president as the think of the campaign has onset.

Obama had opened up a lead over Romney earlier this year in the aftermath of a bruising Republican primary and four straight jobs reports showing that the economy had added jobs to the tune of six figures each month. What changed? In April, May and June, the economy added 68,000, 77,000 and 80,000 jobs respectively.

Presented with those figures in the June NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 52 percent of Americans said those numbers weren't a reason for optimism.

And as if to underscore the point, the CBS/NYT poll found that a full 93 percent of voters said they thought the economy and unemployment were either an extremely or very important issue in this election.

The jobs report and its impact on the unemployment rate aren't the sole factor in evolving political opinion. Romney has spent much of his time on the campaign trail assailing the president's management of the economy, and beyond that, Obama has introduced few initiatives to improve the jobs situation aside from the defunct American Jobs Act he first proposed last summer. Moreover, Republicans gleefully pointed on Wednesday to the fact that the jobs council Obama himself empaneled hasn't met in 6 months.

But a Fox News poll contained one of the starkest reversals in Obama's numbers, adding to the evidence that voters have soured in recent months.

Thirty-seven percent of registered voters in that poll said that Obama has made the economy better as a product of his policies, and 49 percent says he's made it worse. In March, voters slightly favored Obama in the same poll, 44-42 percent. A 2-point margin for the president turned into a 12-point margin just four months.

Nonetheless, the race remains largely deadlocked.

Romney leads Obama 47 to 46 percent among registered voters in the NYT/CBS. Obama leads 45-41 percent in a Fox News poll, and he leads 47-45 percent in the NPR poll. (NPR's battleground state sample found Romney and Obama tied, at 46 percent apiece.)

It's tough to imagine, though, a scenario in which Obama could do much to dramatically redirect the trajectory of the economy. And voters' perception about the economy is likely to harden by the end of the summer, if history is any guide.

It explains the Romney campaign's zen-like handling of the questioning -- even from conservatives -- of its strategy. The Republican's campaign has long regarded discussing anything but the economy as mostly a distraction, keeping its focus squarely on Obama's economic record in hopes of transforming the campaign into a referendum on just that.

It also helps to distill the Obama campaign's need to go on offense versus Romney, looking to poison swing state voters on Romney's chief qualification as a turnaround expert and experienced businessman.

But the NYT/CBS poll contained one of the bleakest numbers for Obama. Fully 45 percent of registered voters said his policies are not improving the economy, and probably never will.

And in an election in which the economy is the top issues, that sort of bleakness could prove to be Romney's greatest advantage.

The NYT/CBS poll was conducted July 11-16 and has a three percent margin of error.

The NPR poll was conducted July 9-12 by Democratic pollster Democracy Corps and Republican pollster Resurgent Republic. It has a 3.1 percent margin of error for all voters, and a 4.56 percent margin of error for the sample of voters in battleground states.

The Fox News poll was conducted July 15-17 by Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research and Republican pollster Shaw & Company research; it has a three percent margin of error.