Less than a week before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground of Iowa, while the two candidates are locked in tight races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

In Iowa, Obama is ahead by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, which is down from his eight-point lead earlier this month.

In Wisconsin, the president edges Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s also down from Obama’s six-point lead earlier this month.

Read the Wisconsin poll here (.pdf)

And in New Hampshire, Obama gets support from 49 percent of likely voters, while Romney gets 47 percent. In September, before the debates began, Obama held a seven-point advantage in the state, 51 percent to 44 percent.

“To be at 49 or 50 [percent] is a good number this close to Election Day,” Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says of the president.

“But he doesn’t have to look far over his shoulder to see that half of the electorate isn’t with him and Romney is close.”

Yet Miringoff adds, “It is always better to be ahead than behind.”

Gender gap, early voting helping Obama
The surveys were conducted Oct. 28-29 – almost all of the interviews were conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast, including New Hampshire – and they show a gender gap that’s benefitting Obama.

In all three states, he enjoys a double-digit lead among women (by 16 points in Iowa and New Hampshire, and by 14 points in Wisconsin).

Read the New Hampshire poll here (.pdf)

Meanwhile, Romney leads among men (by four points in Iowa, eight in Wisconsin, and 11 points in New Hampshire).

What’s also helping Obama is early voting.

In Iowa, according to the poll, 45 percent of respondents say they have already voted early or plan to do so, and Obama is winning those voters by nearly 30 points, 62 percent to 35 percent.

But Romney is winning Iowa voters who plan to vote on Election Day by 20 points, 55 percent to 35 percent.

(Iowa’s Secretary of State’s office says that nearly 532,000 early and absentee votes have been received as of Oct. 30, and that’s about 35 percent of the 2008 electorate in the state. But it also says that a total of 660,000 absentee ballots have been requested, and that’s 43 percent of Iowa’s 2008 electorate.)

In Wisconsin, 25 percent say they have already voted or will do so before Election Day, and those voters are breaking to Obama by a 59 percent to 39 percent clip.

Read the Iowa poll here (.pdf)

And in New Hampshire, just 10 percent say they will be voting early, and Obama wins that small segment, 56 percent to 42 percent. Among Election Day voters in the state, 48 percent back Romney and 47 percent support Obama.

Higher favorable ratings benefitting Romney
However, what has helped Romney close the gap in these three states has been his rising favorable ratings since September.

The former Massachusetts governor’s favorable/unfavorable rating among likely voters in New Hampshire is 49 percent/46 percent – which is up from 43 percent/52 percent a month ago.

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His score in Wisconsin is 47 percent/47 percent, which is improved from 43 percent/46 percent in September.

But in Iowa, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable rating remains upside down at 43 percent/49 percent.

Also, Romney leads Obama by three points in New Hampshire on which candidate would do a better job handling the economy (49 percent to 46 percent). But the two men are tied on this question in Iowa (at 45 percent each) and in Wisconsin (47 percent apiece).

Other findings

•       Obama’s job-approval rating among likely voters is at 49 percent in Wisconsin and 48 percent in New Hampshire and Iowa.

•       In Wisconsin’s competitive Senate contest, Democrat Tammy Baldwin gets the support of 48 percent of likely voters and Republican Tommy Thompson gets 47 percent.

•       And in New Hampshire’s race for governor, Democrat Maggie Hassan leads Republican Ovide Lamontagne by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Oct. 28-29 of 1,142 likely voters in Iowa (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.9 percentage points), 1,013 likely voters in New Hampshire (plus-minus 3.1 percentage points) and 1,065 likely voters in Wisconsin (plus-minus 3.0 percentage points).

The race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney is locked in a dead heat in Colorado, while the president maintains a narrow edge in the other Western swing state of Nevada.

Read the full Nevada poll here (.pdf)

Obama and Romney are tied at 48 percent among likely voters in Colorado, according to the new NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Marist polls conducted this week, entirely after the third and final presidential debate. Among the broader sample of registered voters, Obama holds a 48 to 47 percent lead over Romney.

Read the full Colorado poll here (.pdf)

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Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign rally at Worthington Industries on Oct. 25, 2012 in Cincinnati, Ohio.

The race for the Centennial State has tightened since mid-September – right after the Democratic convention and before the debates – when Obama led 50 percent to 45 percent.

But the president's lead has held in another important battleground state, Nevada.

Obama leads Romney, 50 to 47 percent, among likely voters in Nevada. That result is within the margin of error, but also mirrors the late September Nevada NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, when Obama was up 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters.

Among the broader sample of registered voters, Obama's lead in Nevada expands to 51 percent to 45 percent. 

“I think we’re at a different point than we were in mid-September,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the polls. “Romney’s had a better October than any of the other months in the campaign. We do see a change in his favorability. He’s no longer upside down. That’s leveled off. He’s doing better with independent voters, closed the gender gap, and doing better with women. What that means for a place like Colorado -- it is extremely close right now, but it is clearly a state that could go either way.” 

Romney makes gains in Colorado

In Colorado, Obama is not hitting his mark with white voters, and is now losing suburban Denver voters as well as independents to Romney, who has also closed the gender gap versus the president. Enthusiasm among young voters has also fallen off for the president.

Men and women alike in Denver's suburbs have shifted toward Romney; a month ago, Obama led by 18 points among Denver suburban women, an advantage that closed to 3 percent in the most recent poll. Romney has expanded his lead among Denver's suburban men from 6 points last month to 13 points in this week's poll. 

Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

President Barack Obama greets supporters on the tarmac upon his arrival on Air Force One at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012.

A month ago, Obama led with independents 50 to 39 percent, an advantage which has shrunk to a virtual draw, 46 to 45 percent. Among women, the president led in September by a whopping 14 points, 54 to 40 percent, a lead that has been halved to 7 percent (52 to 45 percent). 

Obama has been able to stay even with Romney by maintaining big margins in Colorado's more liberal bastions and with strong support from Latinos, who say they support the president 63 to 34 percent. They make up a larger percentage of the electorate than 2008 and are breaking for Obama by a wider margin.

Latinos fuel Obama’s Nevada edge

Nevada is slightly friendlier turf for the president; Obama won Colorado by 9 percent in 2008, and won Nevada by 12 points. 

Fueling Obama's lead in the Silver State is an even larger margin over Romney among Latinos and robust early voting for the president. Romney, in turn, is aided by stronger enthusiasm by Republicans, who are helping keep the GOP nominee in the race. 

Hispanics, who make up 16 percent of respondents, broke for the president, 74 to 23 percent, versus Romney.

Seventy-one percent say they have either already voted or plan to vote early. Obama leads with those who say they have already voted (53 to 45 percent) and by a wider margin with those who have not yet decided if they will vote early or on Election Day (53 to 38 percent). 

How crucial is the Latino vote in these two states to Obama?

“In a close race, every group makes a difference,” Miringoff said, but this group really makes a difference. It’s keeping him in the contest in these states.” 

The polls were conducted Oct. 23 to 24. The Nevada poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent among likely voters. The Colorado poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

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Hispanic voters continue to say they prefer President Obama by wide margins over Republican nominee Mitt Romney amid signs that the race is tightening among the broader electorate, according to new data in a NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll.

Recommended: First Thoughts: Presidential race couldn't be tighter - how each one wins

Obama leads Romney 70 percent to 25 percent among likely Latino voters (and 69 percent to 23 percent among registered voters), a slight uptick for Romney from the 70 percent to 25 percent lead the president held a month ago.

Read the full poll results here

But Latino enthusiasm has ticked up since last month, up from its lows earlier this cycle but still not yet on par with Latino enthusiasm for Obama in 2008.

More Hispanics than last month said they are either a 9 or 10 (on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being the lowest) on a measure of their enthusiasm for this election. Sixty-eight percent of likely Latino voters rated their enthusiasm at that level, up from 59 percent last month. But that is off from the 76 percent who said they were in that highest-interest group at this time four years ago. And it is below the 76 percent who are 9s and 10s in the wider NBC/WSJ poll.

The debates appear to have had little impact with Latinos in the poll, which was conducted entirely after the second presidential debate. Just 14 percent said they are now more likely to vote for Romney while 48 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Obama, and 35 percent said it made no difference.

A total of 13 percent of Latinos said they have already voted – either in person or by mail. Another 10 percent said they plan to vote before Election Day.

Related: In foreign policy, both Obama and Romney face fiscal realities

There were some drops for the president, however. His approval rating is still very strong at 66 percent, but it’s down from the sky-high 73 percent he enjoyed last month. On the economy, Obama’s approval declined slightly from 68 percent to 63 percent. And even his favorability saw a small decline from 74 percent positive last month to 69 percent this month.
 
The problem for Romney, however, continues to involve a severe image problem with Hispanics. A solid majority – 57 percent – of Hispanic voters said they had a negative view of the former Massachusetts governor, while just a quarter – 26 percent – had a positive impression of Romney.

In fact, almost half – 45 percent – had a “very negative” impression of Romney, up from 35 percent last month.

The NBC/WSJ poll, including the Hispanic oversample, was conducted from Oct. 17 to Oct. 20 and has a margin of error of +/- 6.8 percent among likely voters and +/- 5.7 percent among registered voters.

EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated Obama's economic approval as declining from 66 percent to 61 percent. It was actually a decline from 68 percent to 63 percent.

Heading into Monday's final debate and with just over two weeks until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are now tied nationally, according the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama and Romney both get 47 percent among likely voters in the latest edition of the poll, conducted entirely in the aftermath of the second presidential debate last Monday. In the previous national NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted before debate season began, the president held a narrow, three-point lead over his GOP challenger, 49 percent to 46 percent.

But among the wider pool of all registered voters in this new survey, Obama is ahead of Romney by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

Read the full poll (.pdf)

"We definitely have a barn burner," says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart.

Hart adds, "The election is close, close, close."

Voters more comfortable with Romney
What appears to have benefited Romney, especially after the first two presidential debates, is that voters are more comfortable with him.

A combined 47 percent of registered voters say they are either optimistic and confident or satisfied and hopeful that Romney would do a good job as president -- up five points since the last NBC/WSJ poll. By comparison, Obama's percentage stands at 50 percent on this question, which is unchanged from the previous survey.

In addition, heading into Monday's foreign-policy debate, Romney trails Obama by just three points (44 percent to 41 percent) on which candidate would be better commander in chief, which is down from the president's eight-point edge on this question last month.

And Romney's favorable/unfavorable rating has slightly improved -- from 41 percent favorable/44 percent unfavorable in the last poll, to 43 percent favorable/44 percent unfavorable now.

Obama's score stands at 49 percent favorable/43 percent unfavorable.

Growing economic optimism
But if voters are becoming more comfortable with Romney, they also are becoming more optimistic about the economy.

Forty-five percent believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months. That's up one point from the last poll and a whopping 18 points since July. What's more, 41 percent think the country is headed in the right direction, which is the highest mark on this question since June 2009.

Overall, Obama's approval ratings are unchanged from the last survey -- 49 percent approve of his overall job performance, 46 percent approve of his handling of the economy and 49 percent approve of his handling of foreign policy.

Macro-messaging vs. micro-messaging
Despite this growing economic optimism, however, Romney holds a six-point lead over Obama (46 percent to 40 percent) on which candidate would better deal with the economy. That's up three points (45 percent to 42 percent) since the last poll.

Romney also has the advantage on jobs and unemployment (46 percent to 39 percent) and the federal budget deficit (48 percent to 35 percent).

And by a four-point margin (45 percent to 41 percent), voters think Romney is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy over the next four years.

But Obama leads on almost all other issue and character-trait questions -- being easy going and likable (57 percent to 25 percent), dealing with issue of concern to women (53 percent to 25 percent), being compassionate enough to understand average people (53 percent to 29 percent), looking out for the middle class (52 percent to 36 percent) and dealing with Medicare (46 percent to 37 percent).

"Romney is dominating the macro-messaging of the economy," Hart says, "and Obama is dominating the micro-messaging" -- on things like women's issues, compassion and likeability.

The demographic breakdown
Taking a look at the key demographic groups in this election, Obama leads among African Americans (92 percent to 5 percent), Latinos (winning about seven in 10 of them), women (52 percent to 41 percent) and voters 18-34 (61 percent to 33 percent).

Romney, meanwhile, has the edge among seniors (60 percent to 35 percent), whites (55 percent to 38 percent) and men (47 percent to 45 percent).

But Romney's gender gap narrows when you move from registered voters to likely voters -- Obama's lead with women shrinks to eight points (51 percent to 43 percent), and Romney's advantage with men grows to 10 points (53 percent to 43 percent).

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Oct. 17-20 among 1,000 registered voters (including 300 cell phone-only respondents) and 816 likely voters. The margin of error is plus-minus 3.1 percentage points for the sample of registered voters and plus-minus 3.43 percentage points for the sample of likely voters.

Heading into Monday's final debate and with just over two weeks until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are now tied nationally, according the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama and Romney both get 47 percent among likely voters in the latest edition of the poll, conducted entirely in the aftermath of the second presidential debate last Monday. In the last national NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted before debate season began, the president held a narrow, three-point lead over his GOP challenger, 49 percent to 46 percent.

But among the wider pool of all registered voters in this new survey, Obama is ahead of Romney by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

Looking at some of the most important demographic groups, Romney leads among men (53 percent to 43 percent), Obama is up with women (51 percent to 43 percent) and they are essentially tied among voters in the Midwest.

The full poll — which was conducted Oct. 17-20 among 1,000 registered voters and 816 likely voters — will be released at 6:30 pm ET tonight.

The margin of error is plus-minus 3.1 percentage points for the sample of registered voters and plus-minus 3.43 percentage points for the sample of likely voters. 

With fewer than three weeks until Election Day, new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls show President Barack Obama maintaining his lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground states of Iowa and Wisconsin. 

According to the polls – which were conducted from Monday through Wednesday, encompassing Tuesday’s presidential debate in New York and after – Obama receives the support of 51 percent of likely voters in Iowa to Romney’s 43 percent. 

That eight-point margin is unchanged from the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll released last month (before the debate season began), when the president led his Republican opponent 50 percent to 42 percent.

Click here for poll results: Iowa | Wisconsin (.pdfs)

And in Wisconsin, Obama is ahead by six points among likely voters, 51 percent to 45 percent, which also is virtually unchanged from last month. 

After two presidential debates, Marist pollster Lee Miringoff observes, the races in Iowa and Wisconsin are back to where they were in September. “There were two debates, but you can’t tell it from the numbers.”

These two battleground states combined account for just 16 electoral votes in this presidential contest. But they play a large role in each campaign’s path to securing the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House.

If Obama wins both Iowa and Wisconsin, according to NBC’s latest battleground map, he could reach or surpass 270 electoral votes by either winning: 1) just Ohio; 2) a combination of Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire; or 3) a combination New Hampshire and Virginia.

But if Romney wins one of Iowa and Wisconsin, he widens his own path to 270 and limits Obama’s.

Tuesday’s debate has little impact
The surveys suggest that the most recent presidential debate, at Hofstra University in New York, had little impact on voters’ preferences. In both states, a whopping 95 percent of likely voters say they made up their minds before the debate.

Also, in the day prior to the debate, Obama was ahead of Romney in Iowa by nine points among likely voters, 52 percent to 43 percent. The day after, the lead was eight points, 51 percent to 43 percent.

Similarly, Obama was ahead in Wisconsin by five points on the day before the debate, 50 percent to 45 percent; the day after it was 51 percent to 45 percent.

Breaking down the early vote
What especially seems to be helping Obama in Iowa is early voting. Thirty-four percent of likely voters in the poll say they have already cast their ballots, and the president is winning those people, 67 percent to 32 percent. Another 11 percent are planning to vote early, and he’s up among that group, 55 percent to 39 percent. But it’s reversed among Election Day voters: Romney is ahead, 54 percent to 39 percent.

In Wisconsin, just 15 percent say they have already voted or plan to vote early, and Obama leads among this group, 64 percent to 35 percent. Yet it’s even among Election Day voters, with Obama getting 48 percent and Romney at 47 percent.

Other findings in the polls:

• The gender gap persists in both states: Obama holds a double-digit lead with women in Iowa (57 percent to 38 percent) and Wisconsin (57 percent to 39 percent), while Romney leads among men by single digits.
• In both Iowa and Wisconsin, Obama’s job-approval rating among registered voters is at or near 50 percent among likely voters – 50 percent in Iowa and 49 percent in Wisconsin.
• In both states, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable rating among registered voters improved from September – from 41 percent/47 percent to 46 percent/47 percent in Wisconsin, and from 40 percent/51 percent to 43 percent/51 percent in Iowa.
• Also improving are attitudes about the nation’s direction. In Iowa, 48 percent of likely voters say the country is headed in the right direction, which is up five points from September. In Wisconsin, 45 percent believe it’s headed on the right track, up six points.
• And in the competitive Senate contest in Wisconsin, the poll shows Democrat Tammy Baldwin leading Republican Tommy Thompson, 49 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Oct. 15-17. In Iowa, 1,137 likely voters were surveyed, and the margin of error is plus-minus 2.9 percentage points. And in Wisconsin, 1,013 likely voters were surveyed, and the margin of error is plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

Also, the Iowa poll shows Democrats with a two-point party-identification advantage over Republicans; the 2008 exit poll had Democrats with a one-point edge. And the Wisconsin survey finds Democrats with a five-point advantage; in 2008, it was a Democratic six-point edge.

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A week after President Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Fl. Poll

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Ohio Poll

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Va. Poll

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

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In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.

The ideological makeup in this poll was 22 percent liberal, 32 percent moderate, 46 percent conservative, which is actually less moderate and more conservative than four years ago when it was 20 percent liberal, 45 percent moderate, and just 35 percent conservative, according to the exit poll.

When early voters are taken out of the equation, Obama’s lead shrinks to 48 percent vs. Romney's 46 percent.

"Perhaps the poll is picking up the Obama absentee push,” said Barbara Carvalho, director of the Marist poll.

“By way of methodology, last week there was no question about absentee voting in the Ohio survey. It had not yet started. … Those who said they voted absentee in the past week, since absentee voting started in Ohio, are overwhelmingly Democratic and they voted for the president by a wide margin. This can account for a difference in party identification among likely voters because last week they would have been ‘likely voters’ and this week because absentee voting had started, they are ‘definite voters.’”

There are signs that Romney’s debate performance had an impact with the narrow slice of persuadable voters.

In all three states, the overwhelming majority of voters said they made up their minds before the debate -- 92 percent in Florida and Ohio, and 91 percent in Virginia. Just 7 percent in Virginia, 6 percent in Florida, and 5 percent in Ohio said they decided after the debate. But in all three states, Romney won them.

“The debate helped Romney but most voters had already picked sides,” Carvalho added.

Slideshow: Twin sons of different parties

From tramping through cornfields to munching ice cream cones to holding babies – the time-honored traditions of the campaign trail leave President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney looking surprisingly alike.

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Romney also made significant gains with independents in Virginia and Ohio. In Virginia, Romney jumped 7 points with the group -- from a 45 percent to 44 percent statistical tie to a 50 percent to 42 percent lead.

In Ohio, he got an even wider 12-point boost. He was down 47 percent to 43 percent with them. But now, Romney is up 49 percent to 41 percent. In Florida, there was little change.

Romney also improved his image post-debate in all three states, but he’s still viewed more negatively than positively in Ohio.

Romney’s favorable score has jumped to 49 percent in Florida and Virginia, up from 46 percent in Florida and 45 percent in Virginia. In fact, before the debate in Virginia, Romney was viewed more negatively than positively. Now, that’s reversed.

Neither score is as good as the president’s, who continues to enjoy favorable ratings above 50 percent in all three states.

Obama’s approval rating also held steady -- 48 percent in both Florida and Virginia and 47 percent in Ohio.

Obama continues to be bolstered by women. There’s a 13-point gender gap in Florida, and 12-point gaps in Ohio and Virginia.

In the key Senate races, Democrats lead, but the race in Virginia has narrowed back to a tie.

Many observers believe as goes the presidential race in Virginia, so goes the competitive Senate race. And that very well may be the case, as Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen are once again deadlocked.

Kaine holds the narrowest of advantages, 47 percent to 46 percent. Last week, Kaine led by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

In Florida, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson continues to hold a sizable lead over Republican Rep. Connie Mack, 52 percent to 39 percent, about where it was last week.

In Ohio, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to hold a significant advantage, 52 percent to 41 percent, over Republican challenger Josh Mandel. Last week, Brown led 50 percent to 41 percent.

The polls were conducted from Oct. 7-9 and have a margin of error with likely voters of +/- 3.1 percent.

Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

President Barack Obama walks during his visit to the Hoover Dam, Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2012 in Boulder City, Nev.

On the eve of the first presidential debate, President Barack Obama maintains his national lead over Mitt Romney, but the Republican nominee is well within striking distance, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama edges Romney by three points among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Obama’s lead was five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, following the political conventions.

But among a wider pool of registered voters, the president is ahead of Romney by seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, argues that the poll results contain good news for both candidates.

More: National trends at work in battleground Colorado

For Obama, he’s ahead at a time of growing optimism about the economy and nation’s direction. For Romney, it’s a “margin of error” contest that comes as interest in the upcoming election lags among key Democratic constituencies versus four years ago.

But Hart adds, “Barack Obama has the better hand.”

Read the entire poll here (.pdf)

Indeed, the poll also shows the toll the past month has taken on Romney, with a majority of registered voters saying that the events of the last couple of weeks had given them a less favorable impression of the Republican challenger.

What’s more, by a 2-to-1 margin, these voters have a negative reaction to Romney’s comment – caught on tape from a fundraiser back in May – that “47 percent” of Americans are dependent on government and believe they are victims.

Why the race is closer among likely voters
Among the full universe of registered voters in the poll, Obama leads Romney with African Americans (95 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (winning seven in 10), women (56 percent to 40 percent), and independents (48 percent to 35 percent).

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Mitt Romney embraces a woman, outside Chipotle restaurant in Denver on Oct. 2, 2012.

Romney, meanwhile, has the advantage with whites (54 percent to 41 percent), seniors (52 percent to 43 percent), suburban residents (51 percent to 45 percent), and men (48 percent to 45 percent).

But among voters expressing the highest interest in the election, Obama and Romney are essentially tied (49 percent to 48 percent).

And two key pillars of Obama’s political coalition – Latinos and young voters – are much less interested in the election than they were in 2008.

“That helps to explain why it’s close among likely voters,” Hart says.

Likely voters are defined in the survey as those expressing the highest interest in the upcoming presidential contest (either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale), and those who have participated in recent or past elections.

Economic optimism rising
While the race is closer among likely voters, the poll has this good news for Obama: optimism about the economy continues to increase.

Forty-four percent believe that the economy will improve in the next 12 months. That’s up from two points in the last NBC/WSJ survey, eight points since August and a whopping 17 points since July.

What’s more, 57 percent think that the U.S. economy is recovering, versus 39 percent who disagree with that notion.

And four in 10 now say the country is headed in the right direction, which is the highest percentage on this question since June 2009.

“We have a different feeling about the economy than we did this summer,” says McInturff, the Republican pollster.

McInturff explains that much of this increased economic optimism is coming from Democrats, whose attitudes are matching their ballot preference. But he adds that it’s also coming from political independents and even some Republicans.

Obama vs. Romney on the issues
Given the increased economic optimism, Obama and Romney are nearly tied on which candidate would better handle the economy, with 45 percent picking Romney and 42 percent choosing Obama.

Read the entire poll here (.pdf)

But Obama leads Romney on almost all other issues and character traits – looking out for the middle class (53 percent to 34 percent), handing the situation in the Middle East (48 percent to 32 percent), handling immigration (45 percent to 31 percent), dealing with Medicare (48 percent to 36 percent), being a good commander in chief (47 percent to 39 percent), handling foreign policy (46 percent to 40 percent), and dealing with taxes (46 percent to 41 percent).

Romney, meanwhile, holds the edge on dealing with the federal budget deficit (43 percent to 34 percent) and dealing with the economic challenges that the U.S. faces from China (45 percent to 37 percent).

And the two are tied on who is better equipped to change “business as usual” in Washington (36 percent to 36 percent).

While Obama enjoys an advantage over Romney when it comes to foreign policy, just 45 percent approve of the way he has handled the recent unrest in Egypt, Libya, and other Arab countries.

The president’s overall job-approval rating stands at 49 percent, while 46 approve of his handling of the economy.

‘47 percent’ takes a toll on Romney
The poll – which was conducted Sept. 26-30 – comes after intense scrutiny and TV-ad attacks on Romney’s “47 percent” comment, in which he said that percentage of Americans don’t pay income taxes, are dependent on government, and believe that they are victims.

After hearing a full description of that comment, 45 percent of registered voters said it gave them a more negative impression of the GOP presidential nominee, versus 23 percent who had a more positive view.

More: Almost 40 percent say upcoming debates will be important

By contrast, when the same respondents were read a full description of Obama’s “You didn’t build that” line – comments Republicans seized on to portray the president as anti-business – 36 percent had a positive reaction and 32 percent had a negative reaction.

In addition, 51 percent say that what they've heard, seen, and read about Romney in the past couple of weeks gives them a less favorable impression of the former Massachusetts governor, compared with just 36 percent who say the same of Obama.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

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Overall in the survey, 44 percent say they have a negative view of Romney, while 41 have a positive view.

That 41-44 favorable/unfavorable rating is lower than Obama’s own 52-42 rating. And it’s lower than every other presidential nominee’s score at this similar point of time in the history of the poll – except for George H.W. Bush’s 34-52 rating in October 1992.

Will the debates change things?
Looking ahead to the presidential debates, nearly four-in-10 registered voters say that the upcoming debates will be either "extremely" or "quite" important in helping determine their vote in the presidential race.

Still, more than 60 percent say that the debates are either "just somewhat important" or "not at all important" to their votes.

McInturff, the GOP pollster, doubts that the debates will change the fundamentals of this contest.

“It would take an episode of some magnitude to disrupt the structural lock in these numbers,” he says.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 26-30 of 1,000 registered voters (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 832 likely voters is plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.

Nearly four in 10 voters say that the upcoming debates will be either "extremely" or "quite" important in helping determine their vote in the presidential election, according to the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

That combined number -- 38 percent -- is up slightly from the last times the NBC/WSJ poll asked this question in 2004 (when 31 percent said the debates would be important) and in 2000 (when 36 percent said that).

Still, more than 60 percent say that the debates are either "just somewhat important" or "not at all important" to their votes. 

Overall in this survey, 22 percent say the debates are extremely important, 16 percent say they are quite important, 34 percent say they are just somewhat important and 28 percent say they are not at all important.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted of 1,000 registered voters (including 300 by cell phone) from Sept. 26-30 and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 p.m. ET. That release will also contain results from likely voters.  

With new polls out every day leading up to the election, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the importance of paying attention to margin of error and poll trends when examining the data.

Thanks to Steeler Fan_380417 for the question!

TRANSCRIPT:

Mark Murray: It's another Inside the Boiler Room question, this actually comes from Steeler Fan, Domenico. Steeler Fan asks I'm curious about the attacks on the polling by the Republicans. Do you think there is anything to the criticisms of the methodology and the polling results that we're all seeing right now?

Domenico Montanaro: Well look, I just think people need to really remember that polls are about margin of error and trends. Everybody that wants to look at specific numbers within polls, party ID, this turn out model, that or the other, you know, that stuff, everybody, especially the good polls, they do a pretty good job of trying to wait for those things, understand what they are. Let's look at the trend of these things. It always drives me nuts when you see somebody talk about, 'oh my gosh, you know, it's a ten point lead, it must be over in one poll!' That's not the way, that's not an appropriate way to look at polling I mean, you should look at a broad swath of these things you know, so, and it always seems to be that the side that's down makes these complaints.

MM: Well and you can always usually tell in body language too, I mean, you look at all the polls right now pretty much tell us what our gut confirms that Mitt Romney's down right now. We saw that after the conventions, we certainly saw that on the crisis that they've actually had and crisis communication on dealing with that 47%. When you look at everything the Romney campaign has done, this doesn't look like a campaign that's ahead. And kind of going to the polls, Domenico, there's this great example where even in the Florida Senate contest Connie Mack, on the Republican side, his campaign said look, these Quinnipiac New York Times/CBS polls that actually showed us down double digits were wrong. Here's our internal poll, we're down by 6. Well the thing is, well maybe the spread isn't double digits, maybe it's in the high single digits, but it does show you what's actually actually going on right now.

DM: Right, and again that's margin of error. I mean, if something, if something says someone's up by 11 and it's a margin of error of 3, it can be 8 to 14, you know, and if another poll shows it's 6 then you're looking at a broad range of these polls, but you want to look at the trend and the direction that these things go.

MM: And not only the trend and the direction, but the preponderance.

DM: Right.

MM: If they're all, 90% of them are pointing in one direction, chances are that 90% is right and the 10% might be wrong.

DM: Yeah, I think the other thing too like you said about body language and the other things campaigns do, when you see MItt Romney put an ad out where he's talking directly to camera to try to address and mitigate concerns over the 47%- you know look, those are the things that are important too, I think people start to rely too heavily on polling, and shouldn't rely a little bit on anecdotal evidence, reporting in the states, and what kinds of TV ads that these guys are running.

MM: Thanks for the question, Steeler Fan.

President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and the two are locked in tight contests in Nevada and North Carolina, according to a new series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Thursday.

Obama is ahead of Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in New Hampshire. He also edges Romney in Nevada and North Carolina, but within the margin of error.

In Nevada, Obama gets the support of 49 percent of likely voters and Romney gets 47 percent. In North Carolina, it’s Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. (Among registered voters in all three states, Obama’s lead expands to 8 points in New Hampshire, 4 points in North Carolina, and a wider 7 points in Nevada.) 

Poll results: New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina (PDFs)

“New Hampshire seems to be following the similar trends we’re seeing elsewhere,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, of the race in the Granite State, where Romney owns a home, and which borders Massachusetts, where the GOP nominee served a term as governor. 

Over the past three weeks, NBC and Marist have released polls of nine battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin – and all show Obama with leads, ranging from 2 to 8 points. 

Mark Wilson / Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign rally at the Farm Bureau Live arena, on September 27, 2012 in Virginia Beach, Virginia.

The results come after a difficult one-month stretch for the Republican challenger – there was the Republican National Convention, his response to the outbreak of violence in Egypt and Libya, the revelation of a secretly-recorded videotape showing him dismissing 47 percent of the country as “victims, ” and the release of his 2011 tax returns showing he paid a 14.1 percent effective rate in 2011. 

“What Romney needs is to have a broader shift thorough the electorate,” Miringoff said, “because the pattern state by state, with some variation, is that Obama has gotten to 50, or in the high 40s. So, there’s a gap in these states that has emerged … Romney has to change the numbers in most, if not all, of these states.” 

Obama’s leads in each of the states are fueled by voters’ improved feelings about the direction of the country, Obama’s handling of the economy, and Romney’s continued struggles with likability. 

There also continues to be a gender gap, with Obama leading with women by 20 points in New Hampshire, 16 points in North Carolina, and 11 points in Nevada. 

Obama is also close to his levels with white voters from 2008 in each of these states. And though there is a drop in the likelihood that young voters will turn out with the same force they had in 2008, Obama makes up for it with continued robust support from minority voters. 

Approval, favorability, direction of the country
The president’s approval rating in New Hampshire is at 50 percent, up from 47 percent in June. In North Carolina and Nevada, it’s 47 percent – unchanged in North Carolina and up a point in Nevada. 

Obama is viewed more favorably in all three states than Romney. In New Hampshire, a state where Romney’s a known commodity and campaigned heavily during the Republican primary, 52 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. 

In Nevada, Romney is seen negatively by almost a majority of respondents (48 percent), while 45 percent of the state’s voters viewed him favorably. 

Romney’s favorability rating was net-positive only in North Carolina, though opinion on the former Massachusetts governor was nearly split. Romney’s favorable score was 46 percent; 45 percent viewed him negatively. 

“It speaks to the campaign strategy, which is playing with limited success of trying to raise his likability,” Miringoff said, citing the convention, Romney’s comments that health care reflects why he is empathetic, as well as his campaign ad speaking directly to camera in which he notes that he, like the president, cares about the poor and middle class.

“They’re trying to address that likability factor,” Miringoff continued, adding, “But with Obama in high 40s, 50s [in approval], that suggests that you have to be more than just the ‘other guy,’ and he really hasn’t been able to do that.”

In all three states, voters’ views of the direction of the country had improved, nowhere more than New Hampshire. The gap between wrong track and right direction back in June was 20 points. Now, it’s just 7 points. 

In North Carolina, there was a 4-point improvement, and just 2 points in Nevada. Nevada is still suffering from the highest unemployment in the country at 12.1 percent and its home foreclosure rate is one of the highest in the nation. 

In New Hampshire, voters also shifted on their views of who would be better to handle the economy. In June, Romney was favored by 4 points.  Now, that’s reversed. In Nevada and North Carolina, voters continue to be split on the question of which candidate would better manage the economy. 

Obama retains an advantage on foreign policy in all three states.

Whites, youth, minority voters
In all three states, Obama’s support among white voters and young voters is down from his 2008 bid for the presidency, though the impact might be washed out by persistent support for Obama among minority communities. 

Obama gets the support of 51 percent of white voters in New Hampshire, a state that is overwhelmingly white, and where Obama won 54 percent of the white vote in 2008. 

White support for Obama is also down slightly in North Carolina, Obama got 35 percent of whites four years ago; now he’s at 33 percent. 

And in Nevada, Obama is just 4 points off from the 45 percent share of the white vote he won in 2008. 

“He’s getting close to the share of what he got” among whites in 2008, Miringoff said. 

But posing a problem for Obama is that young voters’ enthusiasm has fallen off – and are less likely to turn out the way they did in 2008. 

“That huge turnout among young people last time isn’t there right now,” Miringoff said. 

But the president makes up for it with continued robust support from minority voters. Obama leads 95 percent to 3 percent among black voters in North Carolina, a state where African Americans comprised 23 percent of all voters in 2008. 

In Nevada, where Latinos made up 15 percent of the electorate (but 27 percent of the population), Obama has a 62 percent to 36 percent advantage over Romney. That’s narrower than the 76 percent to 22 percent margin Obama won in 2008, but he won the state by 12 points last time, a significant cushion. 

Additionally, there has been growth among Hispanics particularly in the Southwest, and they could make up a larger percentage of the vote in 2012. For example, in 2010, a year that favored Republicans, Hispanic voters made up 16 percent of the electorate, a larger share than in 2008. 

Obama’s challenge in the state will be with independents and getting out the vote in Clark County, which is anchored by Las Vegas. He won independents in 2008 by 13 points. Now, Romney leads by 12 percent. Among registered voters in Clark County, Obama had a 7-point advantage. But among likely voters, that dropped to just 2 points. 

In 2008, Obama won the state’s most populous county – which cast almost two-thirds of all votes – by almost 20 points. Democrat John Kerry, who narrowly lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004, won it by 5. 

Romney also leads among independents in North Carolina by 9 points, but that is a far smaller than the 21-point margin by which John McCain won that group. 

The NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal polls were conducted Sept. 23-25 and have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent for the sample of likely voters in each state.

DENVER-- A defiant Mitt Romney refused to concede he is running as an underdog in the crucial battleground states that define the presidential contest, and accused President Obama of distorting his positions and trying to "fool" the American people.

Brian Snyder / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks at a campaign rally in Denver, Colorado September 23, 2012.

Asked if he was now running as the underdog after a brutal two-week stretch of the campaign that included press accounts of infighting within his campaign, a leaked tape of him making controversial remarks at a fundraiser, and a slew of polls placing him slightly, but consistently behind President Obama in nearly every battleground state, Romney brushed off the question.

"I don’t pay a lot of attention to the day-to-day polls. They change a great deal," Romney said. "I know in the coming six weeks they’re very unlikely to remain where they are today. I’ll either go up or I’ll go down. It’s unlikely that we’ll just stay the same."

Pressed as to why those same polls showed him trailing in the various states - including Colorado, where he'll campaign Sunday night and Monday - Romney blamed President Obama's campaign for what he called "inaccurate" attack ads, which he complained mischaracterized his position on issues ranging from the auto bailout to abortion.

"They've been very aggressive in their attacks both on a personal basis and on a policy basis," Romney said. "I think as time goes on, people will realize that those attacks are not accurate and we'll be able to have a choice which is based upon each other’s accurate views for the country."

Later asked if he could win the upcoming October 3rd debate against President Obama, Romney returned to this vein, choosing not to answer the question directly, but to say that at least after the debates he could stop the president from trying to "fool people" into believing untrue things about him and his policy positions.

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"I think the president will not be able to continue to mischaracterize my pathway, and so I’ll continue to describe mine, he will describe his, and people will make a choice. That’s the great thing about democracy. I’m not going to try to fool people into thinking he believes things he doesn’t. He’s trying to fool people into thinking that I think things that I don’t. And that ends at the debates," Romney said.

But Romney, who regularly complains about ads by the president's campaign that he says are false and should be taken down, has also had multiple ads by his own campaign rated false by independent fact checkers, including recent attacks on welfare reform, which remain on the air.

The former Massachusetts governor also addressed his languid public campaign schedule of late, which has focused largely on fundraising and debate prep, by again blaming the president for disregarding federal campaign matching funds in 2008 and again this presidential cycle, forcing him to do the same.

"He’s doing it again this time, so to be competitive it means a lot more fundraising than I think I would like," Romney said. "I’d far rather be spending my time out in the key swing states campaigning, door-to-door if necessary, but in rallies and various meetings, but fundraising is a part of politics when you’re opponent decides not to live by the federal spending limits."

Finally, as Romney landed in Denver, where in just 10 days he will face off with President Obama in the first of three presidential debates, Romney attempted to shift expectations of an outright victory toward something more modest.

"I can’t tell you winning and losing. I mean, he’s president of the United States, he’s a very effective speaker. I hope I’ll be able to describe my positions in a way that is accurate and the people will make a choice as to which path they want to choose," Romney said.

"I don't expect this to be a contest of who can say the cutest phrase, I think it's a contest of very different directions for the country," he added later.