With two days until South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 10-point lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the GOP contest in that state.

But a day after Monday night’s Republican debate – where Gingrich’s performance was considered strong and Romney’s uneven – the poll also shows the former speaker gaining considerable ground on the GOP frontrunner.

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Overall in the two-day survey – conducted Monday and Tuesday – Romney gets the support of 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate.

He’s followed by Gingrich at 24 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 16 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 14 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 4 percent.

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Yet the numbers are strikingly different before and after the debate on Monday, when Romney stumbled over whether he would release his tax records (he later said he would do so in April). Also in that outing, Gingrich drew cheers – and even a standing ovation from some – in response to a question about whether his rhetoric about food stamps and janitorial work for poor children was racially insensitive.

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“The fact is that more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any president in American history,” Gingrich answered. “I know among the politically correct, you're not supposed to use facts that are uncomfortable.”

He later added, “I believe every American of every background has been endowed by their creator with the right to pursue happiness. And if that makes liberals unhappy, I'm going to continue to find ways to help poor people learn how to get a job, learn how to get a better job and learn some day to own the job.”

Another GOP debate takes place on Thursday evening.

What a difference one debate makes
On Monday before the debate, Romney led Gingrich in the poll by 15 points, 37 percent to 22 percent. But on Tuesday, that advantage narrowed to just five points, 31 percent to 26 percent.

“The numbers on Tuesday were very different than the numbers on Monday,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

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And they were especially different among the most conservative segments of the GOP electorate in South Carolina.

On Monday, Gingrich held a five-point lead over Romney among those describing themselves as “very conservative,” 32 percent to 27 percent, with Santorum getting 24 percent.

But the next day, Gingrich’s percentage with this group jumped up to 35 percent, Santorum’s declined to 20 percent and Romney’s sunk to 19 percent.

Among Tea Party supporters on Monday, Romney edged Gingrich, 35 percent to 27 percent. But on Tuesday, the numbers flipped – with Gingrich at 34 percent and Romney at 27 percent.

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And a similar change occurred among likely South Carolina primary voters who are evangelical Christians. On Monday, Romney led Gingrich here, 36 percent to 22 percent, with Santorum at 18 percent. On Tuesday, it was Gingrich at 27 percent, Romney at 22 percent, and Santorum at 19 percent.

While Gingrich gained ground on Romney the day after the GOP debate, his poll position in South Carolina has declined markedly since December, when he led the former Massachusetts governor in the NBC News/Marist poll, 42 percent to 23 percent.

The Bain dog doesn’t bite – at least for now
Romney also can take comfort with this finding from the poll: His past work at Bain Capital doesn’t seem to bother South Carolina Republicans.

Sixty-one percent of GOP primary voters – as well as 42 percent of all registered voters in the Palmetto State – agree with the statement that investment firms like Bain help the U.S. economy. And they agree that while some companies fail or are restructured, others succeed and that’s how the free market works.

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By comparison, just a quarter of likely GOP primary voters – plus a third of all registered voters – agree with the statement that investment firms like Bain hurt the U.S. economy when they take over a company; when they lay off workers and reduce their pay; and when they make money for the firm whether or not the company succeeds.

What’s more, 48 percent of likely Republican primary voters believe the recent political attacks on Romney’s past experience at Bain are unfair, while just 22 percent think they’re fair.

And a plurality of likely GOP primary voters – 23 percent – find Romney to be the Republican presidential candidate who best understands their problems. That’s compared with 22 percent for Gingrich, 18 percent for Paul and 16 percent for Santorum.

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Other notable numbers in the poll:

•       39 percent of likely Republican voters in the state believe that the ability to beat President Barack Obama in November is the most important candidate quality, and that’s nearly double the percentage who said that in December’s NBC News/Marist poll of South Carolina;

•       a majority (56 percent) think Romney has the best chance of beating Obama;

•       a plurality (30 percent) say that Romney has been the candidate who has spent the most time talking about the issues, while another plurality (41 percent) say Gingrich has been the one who has spent the most time attacking his opponents;

•       another plurality (36 percent) say they like Paul the least;

•       and Obama’s job-approval rating in South Carolina – among registered voters – is 44 percent.

The NBC News/Marist poll was conducted from Jan. 16-17 among 684 likely GOP primary voters (with a margin of error of plus-minus 3.8 percentage points). The pre-debate sample surveyed 349 likely voters (+/- 5.5), and the post-debate sample had 335 (+/- 5.5.).

Among the 2,146 registered voters, the margin of error is plus-minus 2.1 percentage points.

 

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.

Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.

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They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.

The poll numbers, which are similar to those published in a recent CNN/Time survey, represent a reversal of fortune for Gingrich, as well as an improvement for Santorum and (to a lesser extent) Perry. The NBC-Marist poll conducted in late November had Gingrich in the lead among likely caucus-goers at 28 percent, Romney and Paul tied at 19 percent, Perry at 10 percent, Bachmann at 7 percent and Santorum at 6 percent.

• NBC News's guide to Iowa and New Hampshire

“More than half of [Gingrich’s] support has evaporated,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

Negative advertising hits Gingrich 'on the chin'
Miringoff adds that the millions of dollars in negative TV ads targeting Gingrich – from a pro-Romney Super PAC and the Paul campaign – have played a major role in this erosion, with 35 percent of likely caucus-goers now saying he’d be unacceptable as the GOP’s nominee. That’s a 19-point increase from last month.

What’s more, only 6 percent in the survey identify Gingrich as the “true conservative” in the Republican contest.

“He took it on the chin,” Miringoff says of the negative advertising campaign, which has questioned Gingrich’s conservative credentials and tied him to Washington.

Splintered Tea Party support
Although just 7 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers believe that Romney is the true conservative in the GOP field, he has two variables working in his favor, according to the poll. One, only 21 percent of likely caucus-goers say he’s unacceptable as the Republican nominee (compared with 35 percent for Gingrich and 41 percent for Paul).

And two, the conservative vote appears to be splintering between the various candidates, and is no longer coalescing around a single Romney challenger.

Last month, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters.

But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters – who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers – are divided.

Santorum gets 20 percent from them, Romney and Paul 17 percent, Gingrich 16 percent, Perry 15 percent and Bachmann 10 percent.

“This is the Romney dream scenario,” Miringoff says. “When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.”

Obama’s approval rating ticks up in Iowa
The poll also shows an improvement in President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Iowa.

Forty-five percent of registered voters in the state approve of him, while 43 percent disapprove.

Last month, those numbers were upside down, with 43 approving and 46 disapproving.

The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 433 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.7 percentage points).

Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.

Follow Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) on Twitter.

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Newt Gingrich’s surge in the polls isn’t limited to just the early presidential-nominating contest of Iowa.

According to new NBC News-Marist polls, the former House speaker has now opened up commanding leads in South Carolina and Florida -- two states that historically have played important roles in deciding the eventual Republican nominee.

Fueled by the support from conservatives and the Tea Party, Gingrich is ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by nearly 20 points in South Carolina.  The winner of that state's primary has gone on to capture each GOP nomination since 1980.

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And he leads Romney by double digits in Florida, whose primary ultimately ended up deciding the party’s pick in 2008.

“You can see why the Romney people are getting a little itchy,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of Marist College’s Institute for Public Opinion, referring to the Romney campaign’s recent attacks on Gingrich.

Gingrich ahead “any way you slice it”
In South Carolina, which holds its presidential contest on Jan. 21, Gingrich gets the support of 42 percent of likely primary voters, including those leaning toward a particular candidate. That’s a 35-point jump since October’s NBC-Marist poll of the Palmetto State contest.

Romney gets 23 percent (a five-point drop), and no other Republican candidate registers in double digits. Texas Rep. Ron Paul gets 9 percent, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann are tied at 7 percent.

In a field reduced to three candidates in South Carolina, Gingrich gets the support of 48 percent of likely voters, Romney gets 30 percent and Paul gets 12 percent.

In a simple two-way race, Gingrich’s support increases to 57 percent and Romney’s moves to 33 percent.

“It’s a good lead [for Gingrich] any way you slice it,” Miringoff says.

Read the full NBC-Marist South Carolina poll

In Florida, which holds its primary on Jan. 31, Gingrich is at 44 percent among likely voters -- a 38-point increase from October. He’s followed by Romney at 29 percent (a four-point decline), Paul at 8 percent and Perry at 4 percent.

In a three-way race in the Sunshine State, it’s Gingrich 51 percent, Romney 31 percent and Paul 10 percent. And in a simple head-to-head contest, it’s Gingrich 54 percent, Romney 36 percent.

Read the full NBC-Marist Florida poll

Tea Party power
According to the two polls, Gingrich performs especially well among the most conservative primary voters.

Among Tea Party supporters -- who make up about half of all likely primary voters in South Carolina and Florida -- the former House speaker leads Romney by more than 30 percentage points in both states (51-20 percent in South Carolina and 57-22 percent in Florida).

Gingrich also enjoys huge leads among “conservative” and “very conservative” voters.

By comparison, Romney bests Gingrich among liberals and moderates in Florida (39 percent to 29 percent), and essentially ties him among these GOP voters in South Carolina (with Gingrich’s 29 percent to Romney 26 percent).

And Gingrich has the most intense support. In South Carolina, 50 percent of his backers strongly support him, versus 34 percent who strongly support Romney,

In Florida, 60 percent of Gingrich’s backers strongly support him, compared with 38 percent for Romney.

If there’s a silver lining in these polls for Romney, it’s that more than half of Gingrich’s supporters in both states picked the former Massachusetts governor as their second-choice pick. And only a fraction of likely GOP primary voters in South Carolina and Florida view Romney as an unacceptable candidate.

This means Romney could potentially gain more support if his campaign is able to raise doubts about Gingrich, Miringoff says.

Obama’s standing improves in Florida
Turning to the general election, President Obama’s standing has improved in Florida, always a key presidential battleground state. 

Forty-six percent of registered voters in the state approve of his job, which is up five points since October.

In hypothetical match-ups, the president leads Romney by seven points (48 to 41 percent) and Gingrich by 12 points (51 to 39 percent).

In South Carolina -- a reliable Republican state in presidential contests -- Obama’s approval rating stands at 44 percent, and he holds narrow leads over Romney (45 to 42 percent) and Gingrich (46 to 42 percent). 

The South Carolina survey was conducted Dec. 4-6 of 2,107 total registered voters (with a margin of error of plus-minus 2.1 percentage points) and of 635 likely Republican primary voters (plus-minus 3.9 percentage points).

The Florida poll was conducted Dec. 4-7 of 2,119 total registered voters (with a margin of error of plus-minus 2.1 percentage points) and of 469 likely Republican primary voters (plus-minus 4.5 percentage points).