More Americans say they are now in favor of stricter gun laws than at any time since 2000, after the Columbine shooting, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Sixty-one percent said so, a nine-point jump from before the December 2012 Newtown shootings. The last time the question was asked before the shooting was in January 2011. Then, 52 percent said guns laws should be "more strict." 

What’s responsible?

The shift is largely due to the Obama coalition of city-dwellers, African Americans, Hispanics, and Democrats, groups that also said they do not own as many guns as rural and white respondents. But there are shifts with most other groups as well. And even though only a minority of Republicans -- 37 percent -- support stricter gun laws, that's a 13-point jump from 2011. 

In the latest poll, 86 percent of African Americans, 82 percent of Democrats, 72 percent of Hispanics, and 71 percent of urban respondents said they were in favor of stricter gun laws, all up double-digits from 2011.

Urban: 71% (Feb. 2013) - 55% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +16
African Americans: 86% (Feb. 2013) - 71% (Jan. 2011) Net change: +15
Republicans: 37% (Feb. 2013) - 24% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +13
Hispanics: 72% (Feb. 2013) - 60% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +12
Democrats: 82% (Feb. 2013) - 71% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +11
Men: 51% (Feb. 2013) - 42% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +9
Women: 69% (Feb. 2013) - 61% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +8
Suburban: 59% (Feb. 2013) - 51% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +8
Whites: 55% (Feb. 2013) - 48% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +7
Rural: 48% (Feb. 2013) - 41% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +7
Independents: 49% (Feb. 2013) - 48% (Jan. 2011). Net change: +1 

SOURCE: NBC/WSJ poll

There has been virtually no change with independents. In the current poll, 49 percent say gun laws should be stricter, just a one-point increase from January 2011.

Whether or not someone owns a gun in the household is the biggest factor in supporting or opposing stricter gun laws.

Among those who do not own a gun in the household, 75 percent support stricter laws. Among those who do, just 45 percent support stricter laws.

Overall, 42 percent said someone in their household owns a gun.

So who are they?

There’s a gender split, with more men saying they own one (48 percent) than women (36 percent).

It also varies, of course, by region. There are more gun owners in the South (50 percent) than anywhere else. The Northeast has the fewest (28 percent).

There’s also an urban-rural split. Just 34 percent of those who live in cities said they own a gun, but six-in-10 rural respondents do (59 percent). (Just 41 percent of those who live in the suburbs do.)

And there’s a Democratic-Republican split as well – just 30 percent of Democrats say they own a gun, while 55 percent of Republicans do. Forty-nine percent of independents said so.

Reflecting that divide, just 34 percent of Obama voters said someone in their home owns one versus 57 percent of Romney voters.

By race, whites own more guns than minorities. Nearly half of whites (47 percent) said they own a gun. Just one-in-five African Americans said so (20 percent) and just 28 percent of Hispanics.

Gun ownership does not vary much by age, but younger voters (18 to 34) are the least likely to own a gun (39 percent).

And gun owners are more affluent. Those making more than $75,000 a year are the most likely to own a gun (50 percent) – even though professionals (40 percent) and white-collar workers (40 percent) are among the least likely to own one.

This story was originally published on Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:44 AM EST

On the 40^th anniversary of the passage of Roe v. Wade, a Pew poll finds just 29% think the landmark court case should be overturned, relatively unchanged in the past 20 years, but represents the lowest number in that time. 

Almost two-thirds -- 63% -- believe it should not be overturned. (The numbers are basically the same between men and women.)

But just 62% of Americans even know that Roe v. Wade was about abortion.

Strikingly, less than half -- 44% -- of Millennials (those under 30) know the case dealt with abortion.

There are worrying signs about the Republican brand nationally, just five days before the party gathers for its convention and 76 days before Election Day.

A majority of voters in the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll called presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and GOP candidates for Congress "out of step" with most Americans' thinking compared to President Barack Obama and Democratic candidates.

And 29 percent of registered voters said they had "very negative" impressions of the Republican Party – the second-highest number of voters to give the most intensely negative assessment of the GOP in the history of the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, dating back to 1990.

The only other instance in which the “very negative” rating for the GOP surpassed that was in 2006, before Republicans received a drubbing at the polls.

The numbers underscore the headwinds facing Republicans heading into an election they're eager to win, and illustrate the stakes for the GOP next week in Tampa, where they'll have an opportunity to soften impressions of the party.

"It’s frustrating. This president has spent tens of millions of dollars trying to tag Republicans as the party of the rich and the 1 percent," said Frank Donatelli, the chairman of GOPAC, a group dedicated to training Republican candidates.

"Republicans need to push back even harder talking about growth and jobs," he said. "That is the issue of the election; we’ve gotten a little bit away from that."

Indeed, the campaign has been focused mostly on Medicare in the week and a half since Romney added Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan -- the author of a plan including controversial reforms to the entitlement program -- to the Republican ticket.

That focus was only eclipsed by the controversy this week involving Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin, whose impolitic comments about abortion rights in the instance of rape threatened to raise a messy debate that could cost GOP candidates among women voters, with whom they already generally lag.

"Republicans have really gotten off-message in the last week and a half," said a veteran GOP operative well-versed in the party's campaign efforts. "If you’re Mitt Romney or a Republican candidate, you need to be operating within a message framework centered on economic issues, not on issues that are historically unfriendly to Republicans."

But the souring GOP brand likely has a longer tail than the last few weeks. A bloody presidential primary and congressional gridlock have contributed to a sense that Republicans don’t represent the mainstream.

Fifty-four percent of voters said that Republican candidates for Congress were out of step with the public, versus 38 percent who called them mainstream. By contrast, voters view Democratic candidates more evenly: 45 percent said Democratic congressional candidates were mainstream, and 48 percent called them out of step.

"The Republican brand has become the opposite of what the middle class is looking for," said Jesse Ferguson, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

He pointed to House Republicans' votes to approve Ryan’s controversial budgets, and repeated votes to repeal health care reform -- among other instances of legislative gridlock -- as contributing to a decline in the GOP's image.

To that end, Democrats opened up an advantage over Republicans on the question of the generic ballot -- which party voters generally prefer to control Congress -- in the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Forty-seven percent of voters said they prefer Democratic control of Congress, and 42 percent support GOP control; a one or two-point margin had separated the parties on that question since April.

Several Republicans who spoke for this story expressed concern that Romney's selecting Ryan as a running mate had needlessly made Medicare a central issue in the campaign. While Republicans had expected to fight on that issue, and had sought to inoculate themselves from having voted for Ryan's controversial budgets, some questioned the wisdom of having spent much of the last week and a half fighting on that issue -- one usually favorable to Democrats -- rather than the economy.

But voters’ adverse impression of Republicans might not translate to losses in Congress, at least in the House. Most election prognosticators have said their models don’t predict the kind of Democratic wave in the House that would deliver the net gain of 25 seats they need to retake control.

Brian Snyder / Reuters

Several Republicans expressed concern that Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as a running mate had needlessly made Medicare a central issue in the campaign.

“The popularity of Congress, top to bottom, is not extremely high,” said Brad Dayspring, a senior adviser to the Young Guns Action Fund, a super PAC founded by former aides to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va. “That being said, a lot depends on what happens in the individual races. Individual members of Congress, especially a lot of our freshmen, remain popular at home. Additionally, the Republican majority becomes a lot more important to people when it serves as a check and a balance.”

The brand problem could be more serious in statewide races for Senate or governorships – or on the national, presidential level. But some conservatives are betting their enthusiasm and general disappointment in Obama’s performance after four years might be enough to deliver the election.

“The Republican brand is not fully restored to its pre-2000 level. But this election isn’t going to be won by the Republican brand, it’s going to be won by what I call the ‘Allied Forces’ – the Tea Partiers, the establishment and everybody working toward a common goal,” said Al Cardenas, the chairman of the American Conservative Union.

“You don’t need the Republican Party to be at full strength, but what you need is all of those forces to be working together,” Cardenas added.

SOURCE: NBC-WSJ poll

Enthusiasm is down generally this election as compared to 2008.

An average of several key groups from the NBC/WSJ poll, shows interest in this fall's election down an average of 5.3 points from this time four years ago. That's to be expected, considering the political climate, economy, and no exciting, drawn-out primaries on both sides (like in 2008).

But there are red flags for the Obama campaign, considering Latinos and young voters appear to be among the least enthused so far and down in big numbers from 2008.

And there are things for the Romney campaign to look at, particularly when it comes to white-working class and blue-collar voters. Romney wins both by double-digits in the latest NBC/WSJ poll -- white working class 58-31%, blue collar 48-37% -- but their enthusiasm is low as well.

And how about this question: What if an election were decided by just the parties' bases? Independents are also down – just 65% say they’re 8, 9, or 10, down 11 points from 2008.

To measure enthusiasm, the pollsters asked respondents to say how interested they are in this November’s contest, on a scale of one to 10. Adding up the 8s, 9s, and 10s gives a good measure of who the most likely voters will be this fall.

A majority of Republicans said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul should end their presidential campaigns, according to new survey data released Tuesday.

Sixty percent of Republicans said that it's time for Gingrich to leave the race, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll. Sixty-one percent said the same for Paul.

Gingrich has struggled to win any caucuses or primaries beyond the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary and the Super Tuesday primary in Georgia, the state where he was elected as a representative to Congress. He's vowed, though, to fight on with his campaign through the August Republican convention, though the former speaker acknowledged Tuesday that his campaign's finances were tight.

Paul, despite a vaunted fundraising operation and an enthusiastic corps of volunteers, hasn't scored a single victory and has faded from the campaign trail.

By contrast, a majority of Republicans -- 59 percent -- said that Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator who's emerged as the chief conservative alternative to frontrunner Mitt Romney this primary cycle, should stay in the race.

The poll, conducted March 24-25, has a 4.5 percent margin of error for the subsample of Republicans.

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow comfortably leads her Republican challenger who ran a racially-charged ad in his campaign, according to the new NBC News/Marist poll released Wednesday.

Stabenow, a two-term incumbent whom Republicans had believed was vulnerable this cycle in the economically-challenged state, leads former Rep. Pete Hoekstra by 21 points among registered voters, according to the new polling data.

If the election between Stabenow and Hoekstra were held today, 53 percent of registered voters said they would elect Stabenow to a third term, while 32 percent would support Hoekstra. Fifteen percent of Michigan voters said they were undecided.

The numbers, while coming at an early point in the campaign, reflect an uphill climb for Hoekstra, whom Republicans had hoped would offer their best shot to unseat Stabenow. A former committee chairman during his time in Congress, Hoekstra had fallen short in his gubernatorial bid in 2010 after losing in the Republican primary. But the GOP's success as a whole statewide that year had stoked optimism about their chances to beat Stabenow, a senior Senate Democrat and chairwoman of the chamber's agriculture committee.

Hoekstra's disadvantage may well reflect a degree of fallout related to an ad run by his campaign in Michigan on Super Bowl Sunday. The Republican candidate took fire for racial overtones in the ad, which depicts an Asian woman speaking in broken English, facetiously thanking Stabenow for spending policies which, the ad contends, help China.

Hoekstra's campaign, which had initially stood by the ad, has now scrubbed it from its YouTube page and has taken down a related website.

NBC News and Marist also tested a Senate matchup in the border state of Arizona. Republican Rep. Jeff Flake, a darling of fiscal conservatives, leads Democratic challenger Richard Carmona, the former U.S. Surgeon General.

Forty-two percent of registered Arizona voters said they would support Flake if the election were held today, versus 29 percent who would vote for Carmona; 28 percent of Arizonans said they were undecided.

Both Flake and Carmona are running to succeed retiring Sen. Jon Kyl, the No. 2 Senate Republican.

The polls of Arizona and Michigan were each conducted Feb. 19-20, The sample of registered voters in Michigan has a 1.8 percent margin of error, and the sample of Arizona registered voters has a 2 percent margin of error.

Mitt Romney cleans up with Latinos in the GOP primary in Florida beating Newt Gingrich, 42%-25%, a similar margin to his overall statewide total (42%-27%), according to an NBC-Marist poll released Sunday. (Latinos made up 12% of GOP primary likely voters, the same margin that voted in the 2008 GOP primary, according to exit polls.)

AMONG LATINOS
Romney 42%
Gingrich 25
Paul 14
Santorum 10

MoE +/- 11%

FULL GOP PRIMARY CROSSTABS .

But against President Obama, Romney and the rest of the Republican candidates struggle with the group.

Obama's approval with Latinos in Florida (51%/36%) is higher than his overall approval in the poll (46%/46%). (Latinos made up 21% of the overall respondents in the poll.)

OBAMA APPROVAL AMONG LATINOS
Approve 51%
Disapprove 36

MoE: +/- 4.1%

And Obama overperforms his approval rating with Latinos, when he is matched up with the Republican candidates.

FULL GENERAL-ELECTION CROSSTABS.

AMONG LATINOS - OBAMA VS. GOP
Obama 54%, Romney 38%
Obama 56%, Gingrich 31%
Obama 58%, Santorum 24%

MoE +/- 6%

The margin against Romney is similar to what Obama won in 2008 against John McCain.

In 2008, Obama won Latinos 57%-42%, a 15-point spread, in Florida. According to the NBC/Marist poll, he wins them in the Sunshine State by 16 points -- with 3 points fewer for Obama and 4 fewer for Romney.

HERE'S THE FULL WRITE UP OF THE NBC/MARIST POLL.

Newt Gingrich leads Mitt Romney among Republicans, but he is the weakest of the Republican candidates tested against President Obama, according to an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday evening.

Gingrich leads Romney 37 percent to 28 percent nationally among registered Republicans likely to vote in the primaries; Rick Santorum is in third with 18 percent, and Ron Paul is fourth with 12 percent.

Gingrich has built its advantage by consolidating the heart and soul of the Republican Party: very conservative voters, the South and the Tea Party.

Though Gingrich is the preferred candidate of GOP primary voters, he performs the worst of all Republican candidates tested against Obama, including Santorum.

"Gingrich is Goldwater," said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "In the general election, Gingrich not only takes down his ship, he takes down the whole flotilla."

Read the full poll results here (.pdf)

The GOP race
Gingrich leads Romney in a four-way matchup, including Santorum and Paul, with “very conservatives” (47 percent to 17 percent), Tea Party supporters (46 percent to 21 percent), and in the South (45 percent to 21 percent). Those numbers gets even bigger in a two-way matchup. For example, in the South, one-on-one with Romney, Gingrich leads 65 percent to 28 percent.

Romney leads in the Northeast (38 percent to 32 percent), and is statistically tied with Gingrich in all other regions: in the Midwest (Gingrich leads 32-29 percent) and West (Gingrich 33-32 percent).

In December, the last time the poll was conducted, Gingrich also led (40 percent to 23 percent), but much has changed since then, including two fourth place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire for Gingrich, and his decisive victory in South Carolina. The poll, conducted Sunday through Tuesday, went into the field the day after Gingrich’s victory there.

Gingrich is also viewed as the most electable candidate by GOP primary voters. He leads Romney 2-to-1 among those who picked electability as mattering most to them in a candidate. He holds a narrow lead, 46-44 percent, among those say views on issues matter most.

By a nine-point margin, Republicans said a candidate who “comes closest to your views on issues” is preferable to a candidate who has the best chance to beat President Obama.

Gingrich weakest against Obama
Romney fares best against the president, trailing Obama by six points among registered voters, 49 percent to 43 percent. That’s a four-point improvement for the president from a month ago.

Obama, however, beats Gingrich by a whopping 18 points, 55-37 percent, expanding the president’s 11-point lead a month ago.

Santorum also loses to Obama, but by a narrower margin, 53-38 percent, than Gingrich.

“More than his mojo, he’s getting back the middle of the electorate,” Hart said. But Hart warns, whether it’s the Republican race or the uptick in Obama’s ratings and standing, “I look at these results, and they have all the permanence of skywriting -- looks bold, but disappears in seconds.”

Obama, however, is still below 40 percent approval with white voters, and McInturff points out that number and the direction of the country still would indicate "The incumbent president is going to have a difficult re-election. Many of these are still problematic numbers -- as improved as they are."

Gingrich’s problems – women, independents, ‘personal standards’
Gingrich particularly struggles with women and independents. Women say they would vote for Obama over Gingrich by a wide 60-31 percent gap, far wider than the 54-38 percent difference by which Obama beats Romney.

With independents, Gingrich gets just 28 percent against Obama, who wins with 52 percent. By contrast, Obama narrowly edges Romney with independents, 44 percent to 36 percent.

Asked if the candidate has “high personal standards that set the proper tone for the country,” Romney gets a 67 percent positive score, Gingrich checks in at 32 percent.

Issues of character for Gingrich haven’t “been put to rest,” Hart said. “It may have been a great debate point last week, but there is still uncertainty among all voters.”

Challenges for Romney, too
Romney’s strength as a candidate is thought to be his business experience, as it relates to the economy. But GOP primary voters call it a “draw” between Gingrich and Romney when it comes to economic expertise, Hart said.

Sixty-one percent of GOP primary voters rate Romney's ability to deal with the economy positively, surpassed slightly by Gingrich, whom 63 percent of Republicans believe is well-equipped to handle the economy.

“If that’s the ace card for Romney,” Hart said, “it hasn’t materialized at the moment.”

Gingrich beats Romney on sharing your position on the issues by a wide margin, 56 percent to 43 percent.

But on the issue of whether Republican voters would be “comfortable” with Romney as their candidate, he gets a higher score than Gingrich – 75 percent say they would be comfortable with him versus 61 percent who say the same of Gingrich.

GOP brand problem

There’s also evidence in the poll of a Republican brand problem.

All of the GOP candidates are a net-negative in favorability ratings, with Santorum getting the best marks -- 26 percent positive, 27 percent negative.

Gingrich gets the worst -- 26-48.

Romney scores 31-36, and it’s worth noting that Bob Dole, John McCain, and George W. Bush were all net-positives at the same time in their fights for the nomination. The exception of a recent major party nominee being a net-negative at this point -- John Kerry, who was 22-26 in January 2004.

“Romney’s numbers are net-negative, which is unusual,” McInturff said.

Hart added, “It’s hard to make the case that anything but injury has come off the Republican brand off Congress and electorate.”

The congressional approval rating is near record lows of 13 percent, and more people say the GOP has brought the wrong kind of change (31 percent) in Congress than the right kind (12 percent). That represents a drop for the Republicans from a year ago, right after they took control of the House as a result of the sweeping 2010 elections. In January 2011, 25 percent thought Republicans would bring the right kind of change versus 20 percent who thought they would bring the wrong kind.

Those attitudes are also far worse than right after Democrats took control of the House in 2006 (42-15 percent) and Republicans regained a majority in 1994 (37-11 percent).

Additionally, Democrats lead in who people prefer to control Congress, the so-called congressional ballot, 47-41 percent. It’s the fourth consecutive month Democrats have led on the question and it has expanded from their two-point lead a month ago.

McInturff points out there is a “pretty significant gap” between the optimism primary voters -- 80 percent of whom believe a Republican will defeat President Obama -- and reality.

Republicans are “not going to win by simply being the option against the president,” McInturff said, adding, “The entire national environment isn’t going to do the entire job for the party.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post misreported the margin President Obama wins women against Newt Gingrich as 69-21. It is 60-31, as noted above.

In a country sharply divided on almost every issue, most Americans agree on one thing: they don’t like Congress, and they would vote to replace every single member -- even their own -- if they had the option.

Fifty-six percent of registered voters say they would vote out every member of Congress if there were a place on the ballot to do so. That’s the highest response in favor of the question since it was first asked in March 2010.

And they say so across the ideological spectrum – with 55 percent of liberals, 55 percent of moderates, and 58 percent of conservatives all feeling the same way.

“We found the one area in which all people in the country agree,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart.

Combine that with Congress continuing to be at near-record lows in approval at 13 percent and all members of Congress are at risk, McInturff said.

But there are also warning signs specifically for Republicans.

More people say the GOP has brought the wrong kind of change (31 percent) in Congress than the right kind (12 percent). That represents a drop for the GOP from a year ago, right after when they took control of the House as a result of the sweeping 2010 elections. In January 2011, 25 percent thought Republicans would bring the right kind of change versus 20 percent who thought they would bring the wrong kind.

Those attitudes are also far worse than right after when Democrats took control of the House in 2006 (42%/15%) and Republicans regained a majority in 1994 (37%/11%).

“People want Congress to get things done, act responsibly and fix the economy,” McInturff said, “and if they don’t,” they could be in trouble. McIntruff added, “These guys are going to be running in a head wind.”