Updated 3:11 p.m. - President Barack Obama's campaign manager cautioned Thursday that the election is "far from over," just as polls show GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney gaining on Obama.

"This thing is far from over," campaign manager Jim Messina said on a conference call, "and every single day, across the battleground states, voters are voting and we are able to affect that vote every single day."

Messina was speaking on a call to boast of their campaign's efforts to register voters in key swing states, and, beyond that, encourage early voting where it's allowed.

There are signs that this strategy has paid dividends, too. Almost 1-in-5 respondents in the Thursday NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Marist poll of Ohio said they had voted early; 63 percent of those who had already cast ballots said they had voted for Obama.

At the same time, though, Romney has eaten into Obama's lead in swing states like Ohio, Virginia and Florida on the strength of his debate performance last week against the president. The tightening polls have prompted Democratic nervousness that Romney stands a better-than-expected chance at winning the election.

Messina sent out a clarion call to supporters to warn against complacency.

"The most important think I learned when I was running track was to finish strong," he said. "At the end of a race, you sprint and lean into the tape, you don't let up. And quite simply, we're not going to let up until Election Night when we win this thing. And the ground game we've built up over the past few years will help us drive hard right through that finish line."

Romney political director Rich Beeson said in response: “Since the debate, we’ve seen a 63 percent increase in volunteer hours, a growing enthusiasm gap that continues to favor Governor Romney, a strengthening of our already strong ground game,  and we’re seeing the effects of this in polling numbers across the battleground states. What the Obama campaign didn’t tell you is that we are leading or even with them in early vote in key states across the country – FL, NC, CO, NV, and NH. Our early vote numbers are outperforming voter registration in battleground states, demonstrating the strength of our ground game and the excitement for the Romney/Ryan ticket.  Not only are we keeping pace with the vaunted Obama machine, but we believe our ground game will put us over the finish line on Election Day.”

A week after President Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Fl. Poll

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Ohio Poll

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Va. Poll

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

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In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

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In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.

The ideological makeup in this poll was 22 percent liberal, 32 percent moderate, 46 percent conservative, which is actually less moderate and more conservative than four years ago when it was 20 percent liberal, 45 percent moderate, and just 35 percent conservative, according to the exit poll.

When early voters are taken out of the equation, Obama’s lead shrinks to 48 percent vs. Romney's 46 percent.

"Perhaps the poll is picking up the Obama absentee push,” said Barbara Carvalho, director of the Marist poll.

“By way of methodology, last week there was no question about absentee voting in the Ohio survey. It had not yet started. … Those who said they voted absentee in the past week, since absentee voting started in Ohio, are overwhelmingly Democratic and they voted for the president by a wide margin. This can account for a difference in party identification among likely voters because last week they would have been ‘likely voters’ and this week because absentee voting had started, they are ‘definite voters.’”

There are signs that Romney’s debate performance had an impact with the narrow slice of persuadable voters.

In all three states, the overwhelming majority of voters said they made up their minds before the debate -- 92 percent in Florida and Ohio, and 91 percent in Virginia. Just 7 percent in Virginia, 6 percent in Florida, and 5 percent in Ohio said they decided after the debate. But in all three states, Romney won them.

“The debate helped Romney but most voters had already picked sides,” Carvalho added.

Slideshow: Twin sons of different parties

From tramping through cornfields to munching ice cream cones to holding babies – the time-honored traditions of the campaign trail leave President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney looking surprisingly alike.

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Romney also made significant gains with independents in Virginia and Ohio. In Virginia, Romney jumped 7 points with the group -- from a 45 percent to 44 percent statistical tie to a 50 percent to 42 percent lead.

In Ohio, he got an even wider 12-point boost. He was down 47 percent to 43 percent with them. But now, Romney is up 49 percent to 41 percent. In Florida, there was little change.

Romney also improved his image post-debate in all three states, but he’s still viewed more negatively than positively in Ohio.

Romney’s favorable score has jumped to 49 percent in Florida and Virginia, up from 46 percent in Florida and 45 percent in Virginia. In fact, before the debate in Virginia, Romney was viewed more negatively than positively. Now, that’s reversed.

Neither score is as good as the president’s, who continues to enjoy favorable ratings above 50 percent in all three states.

Obama’s approval rating also held steady -- 48 percent in both Florida and Virginia and 47 percent in Ohio.

Obama continues to be bolstered by women. There’s a 13-point gender gap in Florida, and 12-point gaps in Ohio and Virginia.

In the key Senate races, Democrats lead, but the race in Virginia has narrowed back to a tie.

Many observers believe as goes the presidential race in Virginia, so goes the competitive Senate race. And that very well may be the case, as Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen are once again deadlocked.

Kaine holds the narrowest of advantages, 47 percent to 46 percent. Last week, Kaine led by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

In Florida, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson continues to hold a sizable lead over Republican Rep. Connie Mack, 52 percent to 39 percent, about where it was last week.

In Ohio, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to hold a significant advantage, 52 percent to 41 percent, over Republican challenger Josh Mandel. Last week, Brown led 50 percent to 41 percent.

The polls were conducted from Oct. 7-9 and have a margin of error with likely voters of +/- 3.1 percent.

If Mitt Romney were going to win this election, this is how he would do it.

Throughout the summer and well into the fall, the Republican nominee’s campaign dismissed handwringing over the candidate’s missteps and his inability to overtake President Barack Obama.

Their theory of 2012 has always emphasized keeping the race close enough heading into its homestretch, allowing Romney to use the debates and voters’ underlying frustration toward the economy to catapult past Obama.

And now, Republicans say Romney’s well-positioned to do just that.

Two new, national polls released this week showed Romney with the lead over Obama, an achievement the GOP hopeful had rarely managed this general election.

Gallup’s daily tracking poll showed Romney leading Obama, 49 to 47 percent, in its rolling average of respondents contacted between Oct. 2-8. That span of time includes both last Wednesday’s debate as well as last Friday’s jobs report, showing the unemployment rate had fallen to 7.8 percent in September.

The Gallup results followed a Pew poll released Monday and conducted entirely after the debate, which showed Romney leading Obama among likely voters, 49 to 45 percent.

Lynne Sladky / AP

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, right, waves as he arrives with his wife Ann at a campaign rally, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012, in Port St. Lucie, Fla.

“This is a campaign that’s never gotten too high when things are good, too low when things are bad,” Romney senior adviser Kevin Madden told reporters traveling with the candidate on Tuesday. “I think you can’t put too much stock in this idea of momentum. I think it’s a very elusive thing. We still believe that this is going to be a campaign that’s very close, and but we do see a lot of enthusiasm from a lot of our core supporters, and we do see a lot of undecided voters that are taking a new look at Gov. Romney.”

But if Romney were to sustain his burst from a successful first debate and beat Obama, it would represent a vindication of a strategy that’s been openly questioned in the media and among fellow Republicans for months.

During the worst moments for Romney – his opaque responses to the administration’s actions on same-sex marriage and immigration, his response to the Supreme Court’s ruling on health care, the Obama campaign’s attacks on Romney’s tax returns and record at Bain, Romney’s error-riddled foreign trip, his quick response to a terrorist attack in Libya – its leadership maintained a zen-like confidence in Romney’s ability to win according to their gameplan.

"The public polls are what the the public polls are. I kinda hope the Obama campaign is basing their campaign on what the public polls say," Romney political adviser Rich Beeson told reporters a few weeks ago, when polls weren't treating the campaign as well. "We don’t. We have confidence in our data and our metrics ... I feel confident where we are in each one of our states. I have great faith in our data.”

Criticism peaked with the release of a surreptitiously-recorded video last month of Romney speaking in May at a fundraiser, at which he essentially dismissed 47 percent of voters, who he said were “dependent” on government.

“It seemed like people were ready to write the obituary. But the strategy has always been to never get too high and never get too low,” said Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus.

But he acknowledged that Romney’s position had improved as a result of the debate: “We'd rather be sitting where we are today than we were two weeks ago.”

Of course, if Romney does execute this turnaround, it wouldn’t come a moment too soon. His campaign had also counted on Romney’s vice presidential selection and his nominating convention to move things in the Republican’s direction, though neither appeared to accomplish that goal.

The task now for Romney now involves sustaining the uptick in momentum he’s apparently received as a result of last week’s debate. Even if the bump for Romney is a temporary sugar high, the GOP hopeful now has his chance to convert this surge in energy into sustained momentum.

One of the biggest keys for Romney is to turn in two more solid debate performances on Oct. 16 and Oct. 22, and hope that vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan ably handles himself versus Vice President Joe Biden during their lone matchup on Thursday.

The more significant – and practical – challenge for the Romney campaign involves erasing Obama’s heretofore advantage in most swing states. While national polls offer a good sense of the trajectory of each candidate’s momentum, the election is, after all, a race to 270 electoral votes.

To that end, Romney is heading to Ohio for the next few days to concentrate his efforts in the Buckeye State. He was set to make a joint appearance with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie during the trip.

Ohio is a particularly challenging state for Romney, whose personal approval ratings sunk over the course of the summer as the Obama campaign and supportive super PACs pummeled Romney over his private sector career, accusing him of having pioneered the practice of outsourcing during his time at Bain Capital.

Ohio’s status as a presidential kingmaker is well-established, too: no Republican has won the White House in recent history without the state in their column. Moreover, Obama would only need to win an additional 15 electoral votes from all of the remaining battleground states if he were to win Ohio, complicating Romney’s path to victory.

“Ohio is in play; it’s an important battleground state,” Romney senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom said this afternoon on MSNBC. “We feel that we have an enthusiasm edge working in our favor.”

To that end, another poll released Tuesday by CNN/ORC showed Obama ahead of Romney among Ohio's likely voters. The president would beat his Republican foe, 51 to 47 percent, if the election were held today.

SWANTON, Ohio — Mitt Romney's major foreign policy speech got a boost just a few minutes after it ended from running mate Paul Ryan, who praised the address and also talked up foreign policy during a stop in the battleground state of Ohio.

“I just watched on TV what you watched on that TV,” Ryan said inside a hangar at Toledo Express Airport, where the crowd viewed  #mce_temp_url# live on a monitor. “We just watched what leadership looks like.”

After referencing the terrorist attack in Benghazi that killed four American diplomats, Ryan vowed that if elected, the GOP ticket will keep America safe.

“The point is, in a Romney administration, when we know that we are clearly attacked by terrorists, we won’t be afraid to say what it is. If terrorists attack us, we will say we had a terrorist attack and more importantly, we will do what is necessary to prevent that from happening by having a strong military, by making sure that our adversaries do not test us, do not think that we are a weak and in retreat,” he said.

Standing with several veterans scattered throughout the nearly 1,000-person crowd Monday morning, the congressman hit President Barack Obama, accusing him of trying to distort his record of helping veterans while in Congress.

“Because President Obama does not have a good record to run on, he has resorted to trying to distort ours. Lately, he talks about what Bob Latta and I did in the House. He is mischaracterizing our support for veterans,” Ryan claimed. “Let me make one thing very clear, in the House budget that we drafted and that we passed, we fully met and exceeded the President’s request for veterans funding…by 270 million dollars. That means, we saw a commitment, a promise that our government has made to our veterans.”

He promised: “These people put their lives on the line and in a Romney administration we will always keep our promise and our commitment to our veterans."

Ryan’s foreign policy credentials – which were questioned when Romney first selected Ryan to join the ticket – will likely be brought up Thursday during the vice presidential debate against Vice President Joe Biden.

Speaking about the military and attacking Obama’s foreign policy is not new for the Republican vice presidential nominee, as he has addressed the topics during speeches in both Colorado and Florida.

Ryan now heads to Michigan to finish off the day — making his first appearance back in the state since Aug. 24th — holding a public rally in Rochester and an education roundtable in Detroit. 

Mary Altaffer / AP

Republican vice presidential candidate, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. speaks during a campaign event, Monday, Oct. 8, 2012, in Swanton, Ohio.

TOLEDO, OH -- Mitt Romney on Wednesday pointed to the health care reform law he enacted as governor of Massachusetts as proof of his empathy and care for the American people.

In an interview with NBC News, Romney referenced an element of his record he almost never invokes on the campaign trail to answer a question about how he can better connect with Americans and prove he understands the lives and trials of middle class Americans.

"I think throughout this campaign as well, we talked about my record in Massachusetts, don't forget -- I got everybody in my state insured," Romney told NBC's Ron Allen in an interview before his rally here tonight. "One hundred percent of the kids in our state had health insurance. I don't think there's anything that shows more empathy and care about the people of this country than that kind of record."

Romney's health care law in Massachusetts has long been a lightning rod issue for conservatives, who unfavorably compare it to President Barack Obama's own federal law and as a damning reflection on Romney's conservative bonafides.

The former Massachusetts governor also touched on another portion of his biography that he seldom discusses to connect with average Americans: his time as a Mormon pastor.

"I think people have the chance, who watched our Republican convention, to see the lives that I've had a chance to touch during my life, to understand that as I served as a pastor of a congregation with people of all different backgrounds and economic circumstances that I care very deeply about the American people, people of different socio-economic circumstances," Romney told Allen.

Taking the stage for the final rally of his two-day Ohio bus tour moments later, Romney also spoke about the importance of compassion in his speech and said his interactions with Americans from all lots in life have shown him the greatness of America -- and that everyone has challenges of their own.

"You look around, you see everybody, they look happy, and you think everybody else is doing just fine, and you're the only one with problems. But the truth is, most people that you see have some real challenges in their life of one kind or another. I understand that," Romney said. "And I've seen that inside the heart of the American people, despite our challenges, is a conviction that this nation is the greatest nation in the history of the earth."

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

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Updated 6:16 p.m. - Just about 22 miles along I-75 separated President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s events Wednesday in northwest Ohio, the corner of a well-worn swing state that could foretell the outcome of November’s election.

Obama spoke this afternoon at Bowling Green State University, a college just a short drive south from nearby Toledo, where Romney held a rally early Wednesday evening. The candidates’ dueling rallies signify the importance of a specific and shrinking slice of undecided voters in battleground states like Ohio, where state-level polling mirrors what is happening nationally, with Romney falling behind and needing to quickly make up ground. 

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

Putting his mission bluntly, the GOP nominee told the Cleveland Plain Dealer on Wednesday: "Ohio voted for Barack Obama the last time, so to win I've got to get people who voted for him the last time to vote for me this time." 

"I'm going to win Ohio," Romney predicted to NBC News in an interview before his rally in Toledo.

For Obama, today’s trip to the area was just his latest since stopping in Toledo on Labor Day; he and Vice President Joe Biden are frequent visitors to the state. Romney, meanwhile, spent the day capping a bus tour that had taken him and vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan throughout the Buckeye State over the past few days. 

The recent swing through Ohio couldn’t be of more importance to the Republican ticket. A Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday found Obama handily leading Romney among the state’s likely voters, 53 to 43 percent. 

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama waves at supporters after speaking at a campaign rally at the Bowling Green State University on September 26, 2012 in Bowling Green, Ohio.

That’s a wider margin compared to two weeks ago, when Obama led Romney by seven points -- 50 to 43 percent -- in the NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll of Ohio’s likely voters. 

The Romney campaign insisted Tuesday it has “confidence in our data and our metrics” showing a more competitive race, but public polling suggests Romney and Ryan have to make up ground if they hope to win this crucial battleground state in just less than six weeks. 

Speaking in Bedford Heights Wednesday afternoon, Romney launched into a stock attack on the president, and a lionization of business. 

“A lot of people can talk. Talk is cheap. You can be extraordinarily eloquent and describe all the wonderful things you can do, but when you cut through the words you can look at the record, and when you can see policies that have not created the jobs America needs, then you know it’s time to choose a new leader, get a new coach, get America growing again,” Romney said before departing for his later event in downtown Toledo. 

At the same time, Obama was speaking in the Toledo area, where he looked to exploit his apparent advantage over Romney (for now) by exhorting attendees of his rally to take advantage of early voting when it begins Oct. 2. 

"I need you to register to vote. I need you to start voting,” Obama concluded at his rally on the college campus. 

The president told the crowd at Bowling Green that if the student who introduced him – who, according to Obama, put off treatment for a broken wrist earlier in the day to fulfill his obligations at the rally – could grit his teeth through an injury, they had no excuse not to register to vote. 

The dueling rallies in Northwest Ohio, separated by just a few hours and just a few miles, are just one high-profile example of the bombardment voters there have endured during the past few presidential election cycles. It’s well-documented that no Republican in recent political history has won the presidency without winning Ohio and for Romney, his narrow Electoral College map would become even more challenging were he to lose the state. 

David Richard / AP

Diane Champion, owner of A. H. Marty Co., listens to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney during a campaign stop at American Spring Wire, Wednesday, Sept. 26, 2012, in Bedford Heights, Ohio.

It’s no surprise, then, that Obama and Romney overlapped there Wednesday, especially given the local population, which represents somewhat of a microcosm of the voters for which the two candidates will tussle this fall. 

The region is a hub for the auto industry and component businesses, and the president is quick to boast of his decision to bail out the auto industry (a decision which Romney opposed) when campaigning in the area. Toledo, nicknamed the “Glass City” for its tradition in producing that product, has sought to refashion itself as a manufacturer of solar panels, an industry which has benefited from Obama’s renewable-energy initiatives. 

“When my opponent just said we should ‘Let Detroit go Bankrupt,’” Obama told the crowd in Bowling Green, referencing Romney’s infamous 2008 op-ed for the New York Times, “that would've meant walking away from an industry that supports one in eight Ohio jobs.” 

But while Obama has been the beneficiary of growing economic optimism throughout Ohio, where the unemployment rate sunk to 7.2 percent in August, the jobless rate in the Toledo area is higher – 8.1 percent – through the end of July, the most recent month for which local statistics are available. 

“When manufacturing leaves it’s very hard to bring it back. And we’ve lost manufacturing again and again and again. And some people say oh, that’s fine, ‘We'll just do the engineering and the high-end things,’” Romney said at his Cleveland-area event. “But let me tell you: Ultimately the engineering and the high-end things go where the manufacturing is, because ideas and engineering and innovation are associated with manufacturing. We have to have manufacturing here and my policy will be to bring it back."

According to the latest Census, the median household income of about $42,000 for Lucas County, which includes much of the Toledo metro area, is less than the statewide average of $47,300. Eighteen percent of people in the county live below the poverty level, and just 23 percent of the area’s residents over the age of 25 have achieved a bachelor’s degree or higher. In addition, the area has long been a stronghold for white Catholics, a prized voting bloc for both campaigns this cycle. 

In short, the area is a cross-section of the swing voters both Romney and Obama have assiduously courted in various battleground states this year. 

Underscoring that fact, Toledo is the eighth-hottest media market for campaign ad spending in the general election, according to NBC News ad-tracking sources.  And it is the 10^th-hottest media market just this week. The Romney campaign and its supporters have spent about $1 million on Toledo’s airwaves this month, while Obama’s campaign and its supporters have spent more than $760,000. 

It’s also one of the areas where the Obama campaign and supportive super PACs blanketed the airwaves early this summer criticizing Romney as a pioneer of outsourcing and for allegedly dodging tax laws. 

Today’s poll from Ohio suggests those attacks have paid long-term dividends for Obama. Fifty-seven percent of likely voters said they didn’t think that Romney cared about the needs and problems of people like them; 51 percent said they thought Obama would do a better job handling the economy, versus 45 percent of Ohio voters who said that of Romney. 

Almost five months ago, in late March, Romney led Obama, 49 to 40 percent, among Ohioans on the question of who would better handle the economy.

LIMA, OHIO – Kicking off the “Romney Plan For A Stronger Middle Class” bus tour across Ohio, Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan proclaimed during a townhall that Americans have begun giving up hope under President Barack Obama’s presidency.

J.D. Pooley / AP

Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan gives a thumbs-up to supporters, Sept. 24 at the Veterans Memorial Civic & Convention Center in Lima, Ohio.

“People are beginning to give up hope. People are beginning to think that the American dream’s not for them because of this stagnant economy,” Ryan told the nearly 1,500-person crowd along Ohio’s key I-75 corridor. “And when you take a look at what your government’s doing to you in every nook and cranny of America, it’s not good.”

The seven-term Wisconsin congressman – speaking next to a large “we can’t afford four more years” sign in West Central Ohio – tried to strike a personal chord at the Veterans Memorial Civic & Convention Center Monday afternoon, talking about defense cuts and protecting the local tank plant.

“We are being equivocal on our values, we are being slow to speak up for individual rights, for human rights, for democracy. We are seeing countries stifle freedom in Iran, in Russia, in all these other areas and we are saying we are going to gut our national security, our military. That projects weakness,” Ryan said, noting that turning on the TV makes you think of 1979 Tehran.

Ryan – joined by both Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus – continued: “This is why you don’t, for a budget gimmick, shut down your only M1 tank plant in America, this is why you don’t gut national security, this is why you have peace through strength because if we are strong, if we are clear with who we are and what our values are, our adversaries will respect us more and our allies will trust us more, and that’s why peace through strength is going to be the Romney-Ryan administration’s doctrine.”

All eyes are on the Buckeye State this week. Romney and Ryan are barnstorming the state with a three-day bus tour beginning today and President Obama will campaign in the state Wednesday.

Romney is currently trailing President Obama in Ohio, recent polls show. The University of Cincinnati poll released Sunday has Obama ahead 51%-46% and the NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll of Ohio had Obama up 50%-43%.

With just 43 days before the election, Ryan fielded questions from the crowd dealing with a range of topics including why Republicans who may have supported another candidate in the primaries should vote for the Romney-Ryan ticket come November.

“Do you want Barack Obama to be re-elected?” Ryan asked the man.

“Then don’t vote for Ron Paul,” the nominee said to applause.

Focusing on Battleground Ohio… The campaigns release two new TV ads summing up their messages in the Buckeye State… On Romney’s tax returns… On Obama’s do-no-harm week… Dueling “60 Minutes” interviews served as a debate preview of sorts… And both campaigns treated them like debates, with their rapid-response teams in high alert… And don’t’ forget: Todd Akin’s deadline to withdraw from Missouri’s Senate race is tomorrow.

Scott Olson / Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks to supporters during a campaign rally on September 22, 2012 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

*** Battleground Ohio: On Sunday, the University of Cincinnati poll became the latest survey to show Mitt Romney trailing in the Buckeye State -- and perhaps more importantly, President Obama hitting 50% or more there. According to the poll, Obama leads Romney by five points among likely voters in the state, 51%-46%, which is close to what our recent NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Ohio showed, 50%-43%. And here’s the reality for the GOP in this almost must-win state for them: Right now, you could argue that Obama is in a stronger position in North Carolina (his most challenging battleground state) than Romney is in Ohio (a state that EVERY victorious Republican presidential nominee has won). And this is why the GOP ticket is blitzing through the Buckeye State this week -- as if the 2012 campaign depended on it, because, well, it does. Running mate Paul Ryan today starts off an Ohio bus tour by stumping in Lima at 3:10 pm ET. Romney joins him in Vandalia on Tuesday, and then the presidential nominee stumps in Westerville and Toledo on Wednesday. But that’s not all the campaigning in Ohio this week. On the Democratic side, Obama hits the state on Wednesday, and the DNC has its own bus tour bracketing the GOP ticket.

*** The campaigns’ latest TV ads: Also tied to the Romney campaign’s bus tour through Ohio is an exchange of TV ads by the campaigns that’s really almost exclusively about Ohio and its white working-class swing voting population. The Obama campaign is airing a new TV ad in the state that seizes on Romney’s “47%” remarks. “Mitt Romney attacked 47% of Americans who pay no income tax, including veterans, elderly, the disabled,” the ad begins. “Doesn’t the President have to worry about everyone? Mitt Romney paid just 14.1% in taxes last year. He keeps millions in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. He won’t release his tax returns before 2010.” And it concludes, “Maybe instead of attacking others on taxes, Romney should come clean on his.” Meanwhile, the Romney campaign has its own new TV ad that is clearly about these voters, and wants to shift the resentment from himself to China. “Fewer Americans are working today than when President Obama took office. It doesn’t have to be this way -- if Obama would stand up to China.” The advertisement ends, “Obama had years to stand up to China. We can’t afford four more.” These two new TV ads pretty much sum up the campaigns’ respective strategies when it comes to Ohio: Obama is hitting Romney’s personal wealth, and Romney is trying to bash China.

*** On Romney’s tax returns: Speaking of Romney’s tax returns, he released his 2011 return on Friday, as well as a short summary of the tax rates he paid going back to 1990. The Romney camp’s timing was smart -- on its worst week of the campaign, dump all the bad news you can to get everything out of the way. But the campaign also didn’t answer all the questions about Romney’s past tax returns; the only way to do that would be to release the actual returns, not a short summary. But here’s the bottom line about the tax-return issue: The Obama campaign succeeded in making it a talking point and attack (just see its new TV ad), and the Romney camp seems to have succeeded in its goal to not release the actual returns prior to 2010.

*** On Obama’s do-no-harm week: When it comes to the UN meetings this week in New York, Obama is playing prevent defense. While he addresses the UN on Tuesday, he isn’t holding a single meeting with any world leader (not Israel’s Netanyahu, not Egypt’s Morsi). But can he fully get away with this strategy? The fact is there are a lot of questions about America’s role in the Middle East, how the administration has responded to the uprisings and of course, the unanswered questions surrounding the attack on Ambassador Stevens in Libya. He’s avoided questions on this topic beyond generalities. Interestingly, what the president said on “60 Minutes” (an interview taped before the administration had publicly acknowledged al Qaeda’s role in Libya), about “bumps in the road” came across as a tad tone deaf. While he may be right in the grand scheme of things, given the current state of the investigation in Libya, we’re guessing he wished he hadn’t worded things that way.

*** Previewing the debates… : It’s nine days until the first presidential debate in Colorado, but last night’s dueling (and separate) Obama-Romney interviews on “60 Minutes” served as a preview of sorts for the upcoming debates. Here was Romney on the role of government: "Make government smaller. Don't build these massive deficits that pass debt onto our kids, rebuild the foundation of America's strength with great homes, great schools, with entrepreneurship and innovation. Here was Obama: “I think there's no bigger purpose right now than making sure that if people work hard in this country, they can get ahead. That's the central American idea. That's how we sent a man to the moon. Because there was an economy that worked for everybody and that allowed us to do that. Here was Romney on taxes: “[My plan] would be the current rates less 20%. So the top rate, for instance, would go from 35 to 28. Middle rates would come down by 20% as well. All the rates come down. Here was Obama: “[T]he problem that Gov. Romney has is that he seems to only have one note: tax cuts for the wealthy and rolling back regulations as a recipe for success. Well, we tried that vigorously between 2001 and 2008. And it didn't work out so well.”

*** … on role of government, taxes, the deficit, and national security: Also in during his “60 Minutes” interview, Romney said this about tackling the budget deficit: “I'm going to look at every federal program and I'll ask this question, ‘Is this … program so critical it's worth borrowing money from China to pay for it?" And if it doesn't pass that test, I'm going to eliminate the program because we just can't afford to keep spending more money than we take in.” Obama said, “[W]e've already cut a trillion dollars of spending. And I've told them I'm prepared to do additional spending cuts and do some entitlement reform. But what I've said is, ‘You can't ask me to make student loans higher for kids who need it or ask seniors to pay more for their Medicare or throw people off of health care and not ask somebody like me or Mr. Romney to do anything, not ask us to do a single dime's worth of sacrifice.’” And here was Romney on national security: “I thought that the surge troops [to Afghanistan] should have been brought back in November of this year, not September. I don't think you try and bring back troops during the fighting season. I think that was a mistake. I think it was also a mistake to announce the precise date of our withdrawal.” And Obama: I said I'd end the war in Iraq. I did. I said that we'd go after al Qaeda. They've been decimated in the Fatah. That we'd go after bin Laden. He's gone. So I've executed on my foreign policy. And it's one that the American people largely agree with. So if Gov. Romney is suggesting that we should start another war, he should say so.

*** And treating the interviews like they were the debates: Strikingly, both the Romney and Obama campaigns treated last night’s “60 Minutes” interview like they were debates. The Romney camp pounced on Obama referring to Israel as “one of our closest allies in the region” instead of THE closest ally. It also seized on the president calling the current unrest in the Muslim world “bumps in the road” after the Arab Spring. For their part, Democrats and the Obama campaign jumped all over Romney saying it was fair that he pays a lower tax rate than other Americans do. By the way, both sides are still doing mock debates. NBC’s Garrett Haake reported that Romney did another round with Ohio Sen. Rob Portman on Sunday, while First Read can report that Obama practiced at the DNC on Friday with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (with the first lady in attendance).

*** On the trail: Romney holds a rally in Pueblo, CO at 2:00 pm ET… And Ryan stumps in Lima, OH at 3:10 pm ET.

*** Polling update: Here’s a wrap of all the recent polling we’ve seen: As mentioned above, the University of Cincinnati poll shows Obama up by five points among likely voters in Ohio, 51%-46%... In Florida, a Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9/Mason-Dixon survey has Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%... And there’s a national Politico/GWU Battleground poll of likely voters that has Obama at 50% and Romney at 47%.

*** Akin it harder for the GOP: Don’t forget: The drop-dead deadline for Todd Akin to withdraw from Missouri’s Senate race is tomorrow, and it doesn’t seem like he’s going anywhere. Today, at 12:30 pm ET, he holds a press conference with Newt Gingrich, who has been defending him.

Countdown to 1^st presidential debate: 9 days
Countdown to VP debate: 17 days
Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 22 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 28 days
Countdown to Election Day: 43 days

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House Speaker John Boehner suggested Friday that Mitt Romney's difficulties in Ohio might be attributable, ironically, to the success of the state's Republican governor.

Boehner, the Republican from southwestern Ohio, praised the work Gov. John Kasich, who has presided over a decreasing unemployment rate in the Buckeye State (though that's partly attributable to a shrinking labor force).

Recommended: Obama's battleground advantage grows

But the speaker suggested, too, that Obama might be benefitting in the key swing state of Ohio from perceptions that the economy has improved.

"One of the things that probably works against Romney in Ohio is that Governor Kasich has done such a good job of fixing government regulations in the state, attracting new businesses in the state so our unemployment in Ohio is lower than the national average," Boehner said in response to a question from NBC News at his press conference on Capitol Hill.

"As a matter of fact, I think it's a full point lower so as a result people are still concerned about the economy and jobs in Ohio but it certainly isn't like what you see in some other places," the speaker added.

Obama led Romney, 50 to 43 percent, among likely voters in Ohio in last week's NBC News-Marist-Wall Street Journal poll.

House Speaker John Boehner avoided directly answering questions about Mitt Romney’s recent comments in a leaked video suggesting that 47 percent of Americans won't vote for him because of their "dependence" on government.

"This election is about jobs, we've said it for 20 months and it hasn't changed," the nation's top elected Republican said about the surreptitiously-recorded comments made by Romney at a closed-door fundraiser in May.

Boehner himself rose from humble beginnings to become speaker, though that background -- of which he was reminded by NBC News -- didn't seem to co0lor the Ohio Republican's perception of Romney.

"Listen, the election is about jobs, it's not about anything else.  I've had family members who've lost their jobs in this downturn, two of my brothers, two of my brother-in-laws.  I know what is happening out there and I know how difficult this economy is," he said at his weekly press conference.

He continued: “You're going to have both campaigns on both sides say things that get off the message.  The message is let's stay focused on jobs because that's what the American people want us to stay focused on.”

Romney's recently-revealed comments have added to the challenges facing his campaign, inviting criticism from both Democrats and Republicans alike. But Boehner dismissed the reaction as "political hand-wringing by these Washington insiders trying to make this race look like it's over for the president."

Boehner added of Romney: "He’s going to win, well, Gallup is obviously the largest polling firm out there…they got this as a one-point race.”

Boehner also referenced the Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004 as to why he has confidence in Romney winning the presidency.

"In 2000 and 2004, the Bush ground game that got him elected was -- surpassed anything that we had ever done. The Romney ground game today has already exceeded the number of voter contacts that were made in all of 2004.”

GOP aides tell NBC News that Boehner will be hitting the campaign trail aggressively once Congress recesses until after the election on Friday. As speaker, Boehner is one of the party’s most prolific fundraisers and best-known advocates and will play an important role in trying to secure Ohio for the Romney campaign.

Al Behrman / AP

President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign event, Monday, Sept. 17, 2012, at Seasongood Pavilion in Cincinnati.

CINCINNATI, OH - President Barack Obama touted his administration's new trade complaint against China here in swing state Ohio on Monday, characterizing GOP rival Mitt Romney’s vow to get tough on China as mere lip service.

Recommended: Under increasing scrutiny, Romney campaign turns to details

Obama played up his administration’s new World Trade Organization complaint, which accuses the Chinese government of illegally subsidizing its auto parts industry so as to make products more competitive in the American market. The complaint has particular resonance in states like Ohio, where the auto industry makes up a large share of the economy.

“These are subsidies that directly harm working men and women on the assembly lines in Ohio and Michigan and across the Midwest,” Obama told a crowd of 4,500 at Eden Park in Cincinnati. “It’s not right; it’s against the rules; and we will not let it stand.”

Romney, the Republican presidential nominee, has promised to take a tougher stand toward China if he were elected. That commitment, Obama argued, can’t be taken seriously given Romney’s record at Bain Capital, in which companies acquired by Bain sometimes outsourced jobs to other countries.

Obama accused Romney of having a mixed record on China, claiming that while Romney is “running around Ohio claiming he’s going to roll up his sleeves and take the fight to China,:

“Ohio, you can’t stand up to China when all you’ve done is send them our jobs,” Obama said. “You can talk a good game, but I like to walk the walk, not just talk the talk.”

Ohio, where one in every eight people has ties to the auto industry, is an ideal host for Obama’s attack on China’s auto industry practices, especially as both campaigns are vying fiercely over the state’s 18 electoral votes. Obama seemed to be widening his lead here slightly as of the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist University poll which showed him leading Romney 50 percent to 43 percent.

This was the second auto-focused WTO complaint Obama launched against China while speaking in Ohio. Back in July, he announced a citation against the country’s imposition of tariffs on American automobile imports while in Maumee, Ohio – right outside the auto-manufacturing hub of Toledo.

The Romney campaign pre-butted to Obama by releasing a statement from the candidate that new complaint was “too little, too late,” calling it a “campaign season trade case.”

“I will not wait until the last months of my presidency to stand up to China, or do so only when votes are at stake,” Romney said in the statement.

But today the White House insisted the complaint was not politically motivated.

“It's clear that this is a long and consistent part of the president's record,” deputy press secretary Josh Earnest said of the many WTO cases Obama has brought against China, during a gaggle with reporters on Air Force One en route to Cincinnati. He added that this trade complaint had been “months in the making.”

Obama continues his Ohio swing with a stop in Columbus later Monday afternoon. 

While the presidential campaign remains the main event of the 2012 election season, a fierce, state-by-state battle is also underway to determine which party will control the U.S. Senate for the next two years.  And a series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls shows Democrats with an edge in two of the most closely-watched races and tied in a third.

In Ohio and Florida, the Democratic candidate holds a solid lead, while in Virginia – where former governor and onetime DNC chairman Tim Kaine faces former Republican Sen. George Allen in a marquee battle – the candidates are in a dead heat.

Republicans had entered the 2012 cycle with high hopes of winning all three races. All are seats currently held by Democrats, and winning any of them would advance the GOP toward the net gain of four seats they need to take back control of the Senate come January.

In Virginia, Kaine and Allen are deadlocked at 46 percent apiece with likely voters.

In Ohio, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel 49 percent to 42 percent.

And in Florida, two-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, leads GOP Rep. Connie Mack 51 percent to 37 percent. Twelve percent of Florida voters said they were undecided about the race.

With only 54 days until the election, these three polls suggest that Republicans still have work to do if they wish to achieve their goal of retaking control of the Senate. Democrats must defend 23 of the 33 Senate seats on the ballot this fall, a numerical disadvantage that buoyed GOP hopes of reaching their goal early in the cycle, especially since many of the Democratic-held seats are also in hotly contested presidential battlegrounds.

President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Virginia, Ohio and Florida, according to the same NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Thursday.

Each of the Marist polls was conducted Sept. 9-11. Each poll has a 3.1 percent margin of error for its sample of likely voters.