Win Mcnamee / Getty Images

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waits to speak while being introduced during a campaign stop at the Whistle Stop cafe March 12, 2012 in Mobile, Alabama.

Why Romney could lose tonight… And why he could win… Polls close in Alabama and Mississippi at 8:00 pm ET, and they close at 2:00 am ET for Hawaii’s caucuses… The final ad-spending numbers for tonight’s contests: Romney and allies outspent Gingrich 3-to-1 and Santorum 4-to-1… On the NYT/CBS poll and the Chewbacca Defense… Speeding up the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan?... And Obama and Cameron to take in NCAA tournament hoops game from Dayton, OH at 6:30 pm ET.

*** Why Romney could lose: With polling all over the place in Alabama and Mississippi -- two states not usually associated with well-known polls -- we’re not sure anyone has a good idea how tonight’s races will turn out. But we’re on firmer ground to explain why Mitt Romney could lose in these southern states, as well as why he could win. Let’s start with the former: Beyond ideology, Romney could lose due simply to the demographics. Averaging the nine states where Romney WON (and where exit polls were available), 51% of GOP primary voters were college grads, 31% made more than $100,000 a year, and 35% were born-again or evangelical Christians. But the averages for the states where Romney LOST is 48% college grads, 28% making more than $100,000, and 68% evangelical Christians. So where do Alabama and Mississippi fit in here? Well, they look more like the states where he has lost. In Alabama in ‘08, per the exit polls, just 42% of GOP primary voters said they were college grads, 18% made more than $100,000, and 77% were evangelical Christians. In Mississippi, the numbers were similar: 38% college grads, 19% making more than $100,000, and 69% evangelical Christians. Focus on the evangelical number; that could the best explainer.

*** And why he could win: Yet despite those ideological and demographic challenges for Romney, there also are three reasons why he could win. Reason #1: Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum could split up the anti-Romney vote. Note that Gingrich and Santorum BOTH haven't received 30% in any one contest so far, but the polling out there suggests that they could possibly hit those percentages tonight. Who would have figured that Romney’s best friend in this race right now would be Newt Gingrich? Go figure. Reason #2: Romney and his allies, once again, are greatly outspending the competition (4-to-1 edge over Santorum and his allies and 3-to-1 advantage over Gingrich and his allies). Anytime Team Romney has spent more than 3-1 than opponents in a given state, it’s usually spelled victory. And Reason #3: Although this is much harder to quantify, a Romney win in either Alabama or Mississippi would signal that Republican primary voters are beginning to rally around him, despite the ideology or geography. As Politico’s Martin writes, Romney could seal the deal in Dixie. Then again, look at his vote percentages in previous Dixie primaries: South Carolina (28%), Georgia (26%), and Tennessee (28%). What do they have in common? They’re all below 30%. It would certainly be a shocker if Romney won either state tonight let alone even broke 30%.

*** The skinny on tonight’s races, per NBC’s John Bailey: In Alabama, where polls close at 8:00 pm ET, 47 delegates are at stake -- 21 awarded from congressional districts (two to district winner, one to the runner-up, winner-take-all with a majority), 26 are at large (proportional per statewide vote with 20% threshold, winner-take-all with majority). In Mississippi, where polls also close at 8:00 pm ET, there are 37 delegates at stake -- 12 awarded from congressional districts (proportional with 15% threshold, winner-take-all with 50% plus 1 vote) and 25 at large (proportional per statewide vote with 15% threshold, winner-take-all with 50% plus 1 vote). And in Hawaii’s caucuses, where polls close at 2:00 am ET, 17 delegates are at stake -- six via congressional districts (proportional per district-wide vote) and 11 at large (proportional per statewide vote). By the way, there’s a reason why the Romney folks have concentrated more on Alabama than Mississippi: Because third place in an Alabama congressional district doesn’t net you a delegate, second place there matters a LOT. Just look at the delegate haul for Romney in Georgia, thanks to edging Santorum for second place.

*** The ad-spending numbers for tonight’s races:
Alabama: Restore Our Future $1.4 million, Winning Our Future PAC $400,000, Red White and Blue Fund $275,000, Mitt Romney $234,000, Newt Gingrich $134,000, Rick Santorum $39,000
Mississippi: Restore Our Future PAC $764,000, Winning Our Future PAC $243,000, Red White and Blue Fund $221,000, Newt Gingrich $74,000, Rick Santorum $56,000
Hawaii: Ron Paul $40,000

*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Gingrich hosts a primary night event in Birmingham, AL… Santorum does his event in Lafayette, LA…Romney attends a grassroots event on jobs and economy in St. Louis, MO then heads to Liberty, MO for a caucus event… And Paul will be at the University of Maryland.

*** On national polls and the Chewbacca Defense: Last night’s New York Times/CBS poll was the latest survey to show a job-approval drop for President Obama; in one month, his score declined nine points, from 50% to 41%. This raises the question: What major event occurred in the past month to account for this drop -- or even in the past week, when our NBC/WSJ poll had Obama’s approval rating at 50%? There are two potential culprits here: gas prices and Iran. But did those two issues really account for a nine-point drop, bringing Obama to his lowest rating in that survey (lower than after the debt-ceiling debacle)? What’s more, is it possible for Obama to be at 41% approval but leading Romney by three points (47%-44%) in a head-to head? Invoking the Chewbacca Defense, it just doesn’t make sense. Then again, actions speak louder than words, and the Obama White House has been VERY defensive on gas prices. Bottom line: It’s probably worth waiting for a few more national polls before reaching the conclusion that something has happened to Obama’s standing in the past month.

*** Speeding up the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan? Of course, there’s one additional news story you can add to Obama’s issue matrix for the month of March: Afghanistan. And the New York Times is reporting that, after the civilian killings by a U.S. soldier there, the Obama administration “is discussing whether to reduce American forces in Afghanistan by at least an additional 20,000 troops by 2013, reflecting a growing belief within the White House that the mission there has now reached the point of diminishing returns.” More: “Administration officials cautioned on Monday that no decisions on additional troop cuts have been made, and in a radio interview President Obama reaffirmed his commitment to the Afghan mission in spite of the recent setbacks, warning against ‘a rush for the exits’ amid questions about the American war strategy. ‘It’s important for us to make sure that we get out in a responsible way, so that we don’t end up having to go back in,’ Mr. Obama said in an interview with KDKA in Pittsburgh.”

*** March Madness: You can be sure that Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron will discuss Afghanistan, plus other issues, when they travel to Dayton, OH to watch tonight’s NCAA tournament basketball game there at 6:30 pm ET. The game they will be watching:  Mississippi Valley State vs. Western Kentucky.

Countdown to Election Day: 238 days

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JACKSON, MS -- Mitt Romney on Friday mocked a 17-minute video about President Obama's first term in office as an "infomercial" that glosses over the president's failures.

"The president's people put together a 17-minute infomercial. They're calling it a documentary. I don't think so. It’s an infomercial," Romney said of the film, "The Road We've Traveled," by producer/director Davis Guggenheim.

At his second and final campaign appearance in Mississippi, which hosts its primary on Tuesday, took particular umbrage at Guggenheim's suggestion last night on CNN that the only challenge in making the film was that the president had "too many accomplishments" to fit into 17 minutes.

"I have some suggestions for the president and for the producer," Romney said today at a town hall in Jackson. "First of all, talk to the 24 million Americans who are out of work or underemployed in this country."

Ticking off a list of people he said were negatively affected by Obama's policies with whom Guggenheim should have spoken, Romney concluded: "I’ll tell ya, I’ve got a long list of people for that producer to talk to, and I’ll if someone’s looking for things that the president’s done wrong, it’s a long, long, long list."

Romney renewed his assault on the president just hours after the monthly employment reports showed the U.S. economy had added 227,000 jobs last month, while the 8.3 percent unemployment rate held steady.

The former Massachusetts governor ignored reporters’ questions about the report, and did not address it in his remarks, leveling his usual criticisms at the president instead.

"Don't forget by the way that this President, how many months ago was it, 37 months ago, told us that if he could borrow $787 billion, almost $1 trillion, he would keep unemployment below 8 percent.  It has not been below 8 percent since. This president has not succeeded, this president has failed, and that's the reason we're going to get rid of him in 2012," Romney said to a standing ovation.

Romney received a warm welcome here, and responded in kind, again praising the Southern cooking he's enjoyed during his brief swing through the region.

"Mornin' y'all. Good to be with you," Romney said at the beginning of his remarks. "I got started right this morning with a biscuit and some cheesy grits. I'll tell you! Delicious."

Jim Young / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum addresses supporters at his "Super Tuesday" primary election night rally in Steubenville, Ohio, March 6, 2012.

Rick Santorum's long-term campaign strategy is to upend the trajectory of the GOP primary, and snatch the Republican presidential nomination away from Mitt Romney.

But his more pressing, immediate concern involves winning on Saturday in Kansas, and on Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi, by which he could finally push Newt Gingrich out of the race.

Santorum would still face long odds to become the Republican nominee, but any march to Tampa would be less impeded if Newt Gingrich were to exit. But the former speaker has suggested he won’t voluntarily drop out of the race before Tuesday, but by describing both contests as “must-win” affairs, he opened the door to being forced out by virtue of a loss in either state.

"The ability for conservatives to win the Republican nomination is greatly diminished by Gingrich in the race," said Stuart Roy, an adviser to the Red, White and Blue Fund, a pro-Santorum super PAC. "That's why we're investing in Mississippi and Alabama. We can win, and a win in either state would show the need for Gingrich to leave."

To that end, the super PAC went on air with ad buys in both Mississippi and Alabama totaling more than a combined $1 million. Their spot goes after both Gingrich and Romney, whose numbers with Republicans in both states are judged to be, at a minimum, positive enough that he might be able to squeak by in one of the contests if his campaign were to compete aggressively.

Santorum seems to understand the importance of these states, which fall in the immediate wake of Super Tuesday.

"We have to do well in Kansas -- no, we have to win in Kansas, and win big," he said during a speech on Wednesday afternoon in Lenexa.

And he alluded to the need to dispatch Gingrich in a speech last night in Mississippi.  "If we win Mississippi, this will be a two-person race," Santorum told supporters in Jackson. "And if it is a two-person race, we will nominate a conservative as president of the United States."

In many ways, Romney has been the beneficiary of a not having had to face a single opponent during the primary who managed to rally conservatives. Gingrich and Santorum each traded opportunities as the chief conservative candidate, a fight which has allowed Romney to accrue a sizable enough delegate advantage that his campaign is now beginning to argue that he’s Romney is the inevitable Republican nominee.

Polls of two of the most competitive Super Tuesday states belie the argument that, if Gingrich were out of the race, Santorum might have enough support to beat Romney. The former Massachusetts governor won 43 "somewhat conservative" voters in the Ohio primary, but if Santorum's 33 percent share and Gingrich's 16 percent share were combined, Santorum would have the advantage. If Santorum and Gingrich were to add even together their share of the "moderate" vote in Ohio, they would have only trailed Romney by 2 percent in Ohio among moderates, who made up 1 in 5 Ohio primary voters.

And in Tennessee, a state which Santorum won but all three major candidates contested, just 43 percent of primary voters saw Romney as the candidate best suited to beat President Barack Obama in November. The voters apparently unconvinced of Romney's electability split between Santorum (25 percent) and Gingrich (21 percent).

That's all to assume, though, that Santorum would automatically inherit Gingrich voters if the former speaker were to leave the race. And it isn't clear, either, that Gingrich would necessarily offer his endorsement to Santorum -- a gesture that would presumably goad supporters of Gingrich to filter their energy his way.

Of course, any focus by Santorum to knock out Gingrich on Tuesday would be scuttled if both of them lose to Romney. A poll of likely voters in Tuesday's primary found Santorum leading, at 22.7 percent, followed by Romney at 18.7 percent and Gingrich at 13.8 percent. The Alabama State University poll was conducted, though, before Super Tuesday, and has a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Adding to that is the strategy pursued by a pro-Romney super PAC, which has not let up in its attacks against Santorum in advertising for Tuesday's two primaries.

That may be because Romney supporters view a divided conservative base as beneficial, at least until they can manage a stranglehold on the nomination.

"If he wins both states, he may well stay around," Roy said of Gingrich and the Tuesday states, highlighting the importance for Santorum in drawing the race into a one-on-one showdown against Romney come next Wednesday.

MONTGOMERY, AL -- Wins in both Alabama and Mississippi next week are essential for Newt Gingrich to stay credible in the 2012 presidential race, his campaign spokesman acknowledged Wednesday.

“A big win in Georgia kept us in the race. Big wins in Alabama and Mississippi will add even more fuel to the tank,” Gingrich campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond told reporters.

The former House Speaker himself continued to raise expectations in the Yellowhammer State.

“I believe Alabama has a major role to play in setting the stage for the presidential nomination,” Gingrich told the crowd here during his first event post-Super Tuesday where he only placed higher than third in one of eleven states.

While Gingrich is still running second in delegate count as of this morning, according to NBC News, with 111 delegates [Mitt Romney 339; Santorum 107], many people, including his competitors, question how he can continue on much longer without actually winning more states. The Speaker has only won South Carolina and Georgia.

The campaign feels it is so essential to focus on these two states, where voters take to the polls on March 13, that they will skip campaigning in Kansas.

After sending out a press schedule just yesterday with the subject line: “Newt and Callista Gingrich Announce Campaign Stops in Kansas,” Hammond told reporters Wednesday morning there has been a change in schedule.

“Gingrich," he said, "will be here in Alabama and Mississippi."

The former Speaker’s attendance at the six scheduled campaign appearances in all four of Kansas’s congressional districts have been cancelled, including a Newt 2012 Big 12 Tournament Basketball Watch Party.

The move to not campaign in Kansas, although the campaign says it will still utilize resources there, is in line with Gingrich’s Southern strategy.

“Everything from Spartanburg all the way to Texas, they all need to go for Gingrich,” Hammond said. 

Gingrich placed third in both the Tennessee and Oklahoma primaries Tuesday but has high hopes next week in Alabama and Mississippi.

© Sean Gardner / Reuters / REUTERS

Haley Barbour speaks during the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana in this June 17, 2011 file photo.

      Most states give their governors broad latitude in granting pardons.  Some don't trust them with that authority at all. And the rest allow a governor to grant pardons only with the recommendation of other state officials.

      Mississippi's raging controversy over last-minute pardons by outgoing governor Haley Barbour has generated calls for limiting the ability to grant pardons in that state.  A survey of the clemency power reveals that states vary widely in the degree of authority placed in the hands of the nation's chief executives.  

      The US Constitution gives the president virtually unlimited authority.  A president can grant pardons for federal crimes, even before a person is charged, tried, or convicted -- most vividly demonstrated when Gerald Ford granted Richard Nixon "a full, free, and absolute pardon" for any crimes Mr. Nixon may have committed during the Watergate scandal of the early 1970's. 

      In 1977, President Jimmy Carter issued a blanket amnesty, a form of pardon, to anyone who evaded the draft during the war in Vietnam.

      Only one restriction is placed on the president.  No pardons can be given in cases of impeachment.  Congress alone controls that process.

      Most state constitutions, 37 in all, give their governors broad powers to grant pardons for those convicted of state offenses.  Nearly all follow the federal model and deny a governor the power to pardon officials who were subject to state impeachment proceedings.

      In five states -- Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas -- a governor can issue pardons only upon the recommendation of a state pardon board.

     Florida is a hybrid: a governor may grant pardons, but only with the approval of at least two members of his cabinet.

      But seven states -- Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, South Carolina, and Utah -- put the authority exclusively in the hands of a state pardon or clemency board, not the governor. 

      The pardons granted in Mississippi as Haley Barbour walked out the door of the governor's office are in doubt because of an unusual requirement of that state's constitution. 

      It provides that clemency cannot be granted until the person seeking it arranges to have the pardon application published "for thirty days" in a newspaper in the country where the crime was committed.  The attorney general in Mississippi asked a state judge to put a stop to the pardon process there until his office verifies that sufficient notices were actually published.

      A judge has halted the granting of Barbour's pardons for inmates not yet released.  And law enforcement officers are hunting down those who had already served their time when the pardons were issued.  The judge will sort out which pardons turned out to be validly granted.

      So far, Mississippi officials say it appears that five of the most controversial pardons, including four men convicted of murder, did not meet that requirement.  All five had worked at the governor's mansion under a program granting privileges to trusted inmates.

      Two other states, Idaho and Maryland, impose similar requirements that pardon applications must be published before they can be granted.

      The roots of the clemency power in the United States stretch back to England, where the king or queen could grant pardons, and the earliest state constitutions included the authority in some form.