As 113^th Congress begins, Boehner finds himself boxed in like never before… But he will still likely win re-election as speaker… The 113^th Congress, by the numbers… Assessing the aftermath of the fiscal-cliff deal: Obama emerges as a winner… But is it just a short-term win?... The re-emergence of McConnell… And the re-emergence of Biden.

Molly Riley / AFP - Getty Images

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, walks out after a second meeting with House Republicans at the Capitol on Jan. 1, 2013.

*** Boehner boxed in: Exactly two years ago, John Boehner was the toast of Washington. Fueled by the Tea Party gains in the 2010 midterms and facing a humbled president and Democratic Party, Boehner was elected House speaker. Flash forward to today: Boehner likely will once again win election as speaker. But after passage of the fiscal-cliff deal and the House’s inability to pass a Hurricane Sandy relief package, Boehner finds himself boxed in like never before. Roll Call: “Over the past few weeks, the Ohio lawmaker has been raked over the coals by members of all stripes within his own party — first by those seeking less spending in exchange for tax rate hikes, then by those seeking more spending for disaster aid. The public thrashing came to a head Wednesday when New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie … blatantly accused Boehner of political cowardice for pulling a supplemental aid package for those affected by Superstorm Sandy.” (Boehner has since said that getting Sandy relief will be the first legislative priority of the new 113^th Congress.) The one true achievement by Boehner and the House Republicans is that they have turned every spending bill into a debate, which wasn’t the case before, and that is an achievement for the party of small government. But here’s the central question to ask: Is the Republican Party in a better position today than it was two years ago? It’s hard to argue “yes” to that question.

*** But he will still likely win re-election as speaker: As noted above, with today’s start of the 113^th Congress, the House of Representatives will vote to elect a speaker of the House. While it is likely that John Boehner will be re-elected as speaker, per NBC’s Frank Thorp, we could see the first second ballot for speaker since 1923 if 16 conservatives decide to vote against Boehner. Thorp adds that the 113th Congress will convene for the first time at noon ET, after which the House will vote to elect the speaker. Members will be called by name alphabetically and asked for their vote.  This vote is different than typical votes, which are done electronically during a set period of time. The speaker needs a majority of all votes cast to be elected.  If all members were to vote, Boehner would need 217 votes, unless there are members who are absent for the vote, or members who vote "present" (for no one). By the way, it seems that the House No. 2 Republican, Eric Cantor, was caught selling out the king in the Sandy mess. Here was Christie at his press conference: “I was called at 11:20 last night by Leader Cantor and told that authority for the vote had been pulled by the speaker.” Just askin’, but when Cantor decided to share with Christie his version of what happened to Sandy relief, did Cantor know Christie would go public?  Remember all those stories about Cantor and Boehner becoming closer? Um, yeah… how do you spell a-w-k-w-a-r-d?

*** The 113th Congress, by the numbers: The 113th Congress’ partisan breakdown will be as follows: In the House, per NBC’s Frank Thorp: 233 Republicans, 200 Democrats, two vacancies (Tim Scott and Jesse Jackson Jr.) That means once those two seats are filled, it will likely be 234-201.) That’s a slightly narrower breakdown than the 112th, which ended with 240-191, four vacancies. In the Senate, Democrats will continue to control the Senate – but with a slightly larger 55-45 majority (including two independents who will caucus with the Democrats). As NBC’s Carrie Dann reported last month: A record-breaking 20 women will serve in the Senate, while 78 will be seated in the United States House. There will be 16 Iraq and Afghanistan vets of the new members. There will also be four new members who are LGBT, almost doubling the number of openly gay lawmakers. And remember, for the first time in history, white men will NOT make up the majority of the House Democratic caucus. Also, today marks the return of Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) after his stroke. Per the Chicago Daily Herald, Kirk “plans to climb the 45 steps of the U.S. Capitol without the aid of a handrail.”

*** Assessing the aftermath of the fiscal-cliff deal: A win for Obama: Yes, liberals and Senate Democrats think President Obama gave up too much for a deal. And, yes, there's another fiscal fight coming up (more on that below). But he got a deal, proving that the GOP "fever" did break, at least for a while. He also delivered on a campaign promise to raise the taxes on the wealthy (although had to compromise from $250,000 to $450,000), and he got Republicans (!!!) to give him cover in raising taxes -- something Bill Clinton was never able to do. And he protects a fragile, yet growing, economy. It’s hard to see how that isn't a win for the president.

*** But is it just a short-term win? The question is how long that win lasts. After all, we’ll have another fiscal showdown in two months over the debt ceiling, government operations, and the sequester. So what happened over New Year's was a partial surgery -- the patient and the doctors still need to come back to finish the job. Yes, Republicans now have more leverage heading into this debt-ceiling fight. But two things happened over New Year's that are significant: 1) Republicans proved they could support an increase in tax rates and 2) House Republicans also proved that you don't need a "majority of the majority" to bring legislation to the floor. And there is now a path forward for future deals, as the New York Times notes, with the White House working with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But can that last? And who speaks for Republicans? Those are questions over which the Obama White House will have to wrestle.

*** The re-emergence of McConnell: Speaking of the Senate minority leader, so much for the early thought that the Senate -- and Senate Republicans -- wouldn't be a key factor in the negotiations. Given how much the GOP was going to be blamed for going off the cliff, McConnell protected his party, and it allows it to fight on better terrain two months from now. McConnell, who faces re-election in Kentucky next year, pens a Yahoo op-ed saying that he will now be pursuing spending cuts. “Was [the fiscal-cliff deal] a great deal? No. As I said, taxes shouldn’t be going up at all. Just as importantly, the transcendent issue of our time, the spiraling debt, remains completely unaddressed. Yet now that the president has gotten his long-sought tax hike on the ‘rich,’ we can finally turn squarely toward the real problem, which is spending.” Can McConnell politically handle making the right mad by becoming the dealmaker in a year he has to prep for his own re-election in very red Kentucky? And if not McConnell, who? And who speaks for Republicans? If Boehner isn’t going to do anymore one-on-one talks with the White House (and why should he at this point, the trust between the two offices is just awful at this point), who is Boehner’s wing man? Cantor? (See Sandy story.) McCarthy? (He’s tight with Cantor.) Perhaps it’s Paul Ryan? (But does he have his own ambitions?) The White House would certainly like to know; they LOVE the Biden-McConnell gambit, but could other partnerships be created? Say, Geithner-Ryan on the debt ceiling? Or how about Obama-Rubio on immigration?

*** The re-emergence of Biden: Has there been a more underappreciated vice president? Yes, he's the butt of jokes and "The Onion" parodies. But the guy delivered in reaching across the aisle. The whole point in Obama hiring Biden was to have him as his congressional go-to guy; For some reason, many in the West Wing are hesitant to let Biden be Biden and play this role until the very last minute. While Biden allowed himself to be rolled by staffers every now and then in the West Wing, in a second term (with his own eye on the Oval), we’re guessing Biden’s going to less inclined to take a backseat come March.

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Updated at 12:32 a.m. ET: An agreement to stave off the harshest and most immediate consequences of the fiscal cliff won approval in the House late Tuesday. President Barack Obama signed the law on Wednesday night, the battle over which foreshadowed more fights with Congress over spending.

Following a day of hectic wrangling on Capitol Hill — where the prospects for passing the bipartisan, Senate legislation regarding the fiscal cliff hung in the balance for much of New Year's Day — the House voted 257 to 167 to pass the belated compromise measure over the objections of many conservative Republicans.

The legislation takes steps toward resolving the combination of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that took effect at midnight on Jan. 1. It preserves tax rates as they were at the end of 2012, except for those individuals earning more than $400,000 and households earning over $450,000. It also allows taxes on capital gains and dividends to go up, and extends benefits of the unemployed. Additionally, the Senate bill delays the onset of the "sequester" — the swift, automatic spending cuts — for two months. 

Fiscal cliff compromise leaves few satisfied

"Thanks to the votes of Democrats and Republicans in Congress I will sign a law that raises the taxes on the wealthiest of Americans," Obama said in remarks at the White House Tuesday, "while preventing a middle-class tax hike."

The House vote laid bare some of the internal ideological divisions to plague the GOP over the past two years. More Republican congressmen (151) voted against the Senate bill than for it (85), meaning that Democrats' support was needed to advance the final deal. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, took the rare step of casting a vote, and did so in favor of the legislation. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., the former Republican vice presidential nominee, also supported the package. But Boehner's top two lieutenants, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., each opposed the deal.

"Now the focus turns to spending," Boehner said in a statement following the House vote. "The American people re-elected a Republican majority in the House, and we will use it in 2013 to hold the president accountable for the ‘balanced’ approach he promised, meaning significant spending cuts and reforms to the entitlement programs that are driving our country deeper and deeper into debt."

While the last-minute action on Capitol Hill essentially mitigates much of the risk posed to the U.S. economic recovery by the fiscal cliff, it hardly brings resolution to the bitter and often intractable fight in Washington over taxes and spending. The first half of 2013 will feature battles in Congress over raising the debt limit, continuing basic government funding and the expiration of this two-month delay in the sequester. 

Bipartisan outrage after House skips vote on $60 billion Sandy aid bill

Obama nodded to those looming fights in his remarks Tuesday evening, renewing his call for "balance" in any solution in the coming year to address deficits and debts. But the president also sternly warned Congress against using the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip, as Republicans had in summer of 2011.

"While I'll negotiate over many things, I will not have another debate with this Congress over whether to pay the bills they have racked up," Obama said.

PhotoBlog: Deal done, Obama heads back to Hawaii with a weary wink

The fiscal cliff itself was the product of discord in Congress resolving those very issues. And the difficulty in attaining even this less ambitious piece of legislation — versus the kind of "grand bargain" Obama had first sought in talks with Republicans — offered a cautionary tale for the 113th Congress, in which the House and the Senate remain controlled by the same parties as during the past two years. 

Squabbling
And even for much of Tuesday, House approval of the fiscal legislation — which was negotiated by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Vice President Joe Biden — was far from certain. GOP leaders were forced to cajole conservatives who complained the fallback deal contained insufficient spending cuts. Only after it became clear that Republicans wouldn't have the votes to amend the Senate proposal — which the upper chamber said it wouldn't even consider — did House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, bring the bill to the floor. 

The squabbling was familiar to any observers of Congress during the past two years. This divide almost resulted in a government shutdown and a default on the national debt in 2011. It again threatened Tuesday to allow the painful, across-the-board tax hikes and spending cuts to play out just as the U.S. economic recovery showed signs of accelerating.

PhotoBlog: See images of Congress working overtime to avoid fiscal cliff

And this deal just approved by Congress in the waning hours of 2013's first day all but ensures that much of the coming year will be dominated by similar battles in Washington. Republicans are hopeful they might be able to extract more spending cuts and entitlement reforms with the government up against other deadlines, like the one needed this spring to authorize more government borrowing. 

That could complicate Obama's already-ambitious second term agenda. The president said just this past Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he will seek comprehensive immigration reform legislation and new laws to address gun violence.

Updated at 2:15 a.m. ET -- An agreement in principle to avert broad tax increases and spending cuts passed in the Senate early Tuesday morning, with an overwhelming vote of 89-8.

The House of Representatives is expected to vote before Wednesday.

The interim New Year's Eve tax deal negotiated by Biden and Senate Republican Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky would raise income taxes on single earners with annual incomes above $400,000 and married couples with incomes above $450,000.

It also blocks spending cuts for two months, extends unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless, prevents a 27 percent cut in fees for doctors who treat Medicare patients and prevents a spike in milk prices.

As of mid-afternoon Monday, the sticking point involved the "sequester," the cuts to spending – about $100 billion to start in 2013 -- that were mandated by the Budget Control Act which President Barack Obama signed into law last year. Republicans have signaled they might let the sequester take effect unless it was offset by other spending cuts; the GOP has also said it might accept a delay, but only for a few months.

The Obama administration, however, was pushing for a longer delay in implementing the sequester. Otherwise, the president said, replacing those automatic cuts must be "balanced" — shorthand for a combination of new taxes and other spending cuts.

Obama tried to push talks over the finish line earlier in the afternoon with a statement from the White House.

"Today, it appears that an agreement to prevent this New Year's tax hike is within sight," the president said at the White House on Monday. "But it's not done."

In the absence of a broader agreement to resolve the sequester, McConnell appeared in the Senate floor to request a vote only on the tax element of the fiscal cliff.

"Let's pass the tax relief portion now," he said. "Let's take what's been agreed to and keep moving."

But it's not clear that Democrats, who were led in negotiations by Vice President Joe Biden, would agree to de-link the tax debate from other fights over the sequester and extending expiring unemployment benefits past Dec. 31.

House Republicans were careful to note that it was still possible for them to add votes late on New Year's Eve. But they also argued that there was no Senate-passed legislation on which they could schedule a vote, making the prospect of avoiding the cliff all the less likely.

Democratic and Republican sources in the House told NBC News that a final vote on any deal would now most likely wait until afternoon on New Year's Day, or even on Jan. 2.

Though Congress could still conceivably act after New Year's to preserve existing tax rates — thereby limiting any lasting effect on consumers — their inability to reach an agreement until the very last minute could still threaten to rattle the economy and markets.

The House did act late Sunday, though, to clear the way for emergency consideration of Senate legislation if leaders are able to reach an agreement. The House Rules Committee convened with the purpose of dispensing with a rule instilled by Republicans in the early days of 2011 to require that legislation be posted online for a full 72 hours before a vote in the House. GOP leaders had sought that rule to showcase their own transparency, and in reaction to actions by the previous Democratic majority to quickly pass legislation during the health care reform battles of 2010.

Republicans' move to sidestep their own rule underscores the urgency of fiscal cliff talks in the final hours of 2012. There were few ironclad assurances, though, that any Senate agreement would necessarily win the support of the House.

The lurching nature of legislating has been characteristic of the Congress during the last two years, and that's a phenomenon that may well continue into the next Congress, when Democrats will continue to retain control of the Senate, and Republicans will hold a slightly slimmer grasp on the House.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, center, arrives at his office in the Capitol as he and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, try to negotiate a legislative solution to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" in Washington, Sunday, Dec. 30, 2012.

After a day of talks that were expected to yield some sort of compromise on the so-called fiscal cliff, Senate leaders called off any further votes until Monday morning, just hours before the deadline that will trigger across-the-board tax increases and dramatic cuts in military and domestic spending. 

The Senate will meet again on New Year's Eve, the last full day before the "cliff" takes effect on Jan. 1. Negotiations were expected to continue in the meanwhile.

A day of wrangling in the Senate came and went without an accord to avoid the fiscal cliff, leaving lawmakers just a matter of hours to sort through thorny issues of taxes and spending that have beguiled Congress for the better part of the past two years. 

Significant distance remains between the two sides and negotiations continue, although the clock continues to tick. Even a simple deal appears far from certain.

"There is still time left to reach an agreement, and we intend to continue negotiations," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., announced early Sunday evening. "We're going to come in at 11 a.m. tomorrow morning. We'll have further announcements, perhaps, at 11 in the morning. I certainly hope so."

As the Senate struggles to reach an agreement, House members — who were back in Washington on Sunday — were left awaiting any potential legislation from the upper chamber.

Reid and Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell had been tasked by President Barack Obama with developing a bare-bones deal to stave off the automatic tax hikes following the expiration of the 2001 Bush tax cuts at the end of the day on Monday. 

But discussions between the leaders and their staff failed to produce an agreement. Democrats said that a main hangup involved what's known as "chained CPI," a re-calculation of how Social Security benefits grow in outlying years. Democrats regard that proposal, which Obama had previously offered to Republicans in the context of a broader bargain, as a "poison pill" if included in these last-ditch efforts. 

The impasse prompted McConnell to reach out to Vice President Joe Biden, a former senator who's previously helped navigate congressional standoffs, in hopes of jump-starting negotiations. Biden was at the White House on Sunday afternoon.

But after each leader huddled with his respective party on Sunday, there were few indications of the type of breakthrough needed to end the stalemate in the Senate. Republicans, though, did appear to relent on any demand to include chained CPI in a final deal (though GOP officials denied they had ever seriously proposed it in the first place).

"We have as a conference have come out and said, if that's a show-stopper for the majority leader, we take that off the table," New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte said following the meeting with fellow Republicans.

The breakdown in negotiations sets the stage for one of the most dramatic days of political deal-making on Monday, the final day of 2012 and just three days before the next Congress — which won't affect control of either chamber but is slightly more Democratic — is sworn into office on Jan. 3.

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, had recalled House members to Washington for a series of rare weekend evening votes on Sunday. Those lawmakers had conceivably been asked to return  to vote on whatever agreement Senate leaders might be able to forge. But absent any legislation, which would not come before Monday morning, House members' presence was largely superfluous. 

Obama had asked Reid to prepare a vote on fallback legislation to preserve tax rates on income under $250,000 and extend expiring unemployment benefits in case Senate talks fell through. Democrats showed no signs of backing off that intention, though it is unclear whether Boehner would allow that legislation to even come to a vote in the House. 

"Now the pressure's on Congress to produce," Obama said in an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," which aired Sunday.

The hold-up on Capitol Hill appeared, though, to involve several unresolved issues. First, lawmakers must reach an agreement on the threshold of income beneath which current tax rates would be extended. Second, they must resolve what elements of spending — unemployment benefits, for instance — or commensurate cuts (to offset the cancellation of the automatic spending cuts, known as the sequester) to include in a final package.

"The biggest obstacle we face is that President Obama and Majority Leader Reid continue to insist on new taxes that will be used to fund more new spending, not for meaningful deficit reduction," Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., Republicans' budget chief, said in a statement.

NBC's Frank Thorp contributed reporting.

Updated 3:10 p.m. — Senate Democrats said talks toward resolving the so-called fiscal cliff before the end-of-year deadline had hit a "major setback" on Sunday afternoon due to a standoff over proposed changes to Social Security. 

Democrats said that Republicans, led by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Ky., are insisting that a deal to resolve the fiscal cliff include what is known as "chained CPI" -- a change in how Social Security benefits are calculated to increase over time. 

Just before a self-imposed deadline at which Senate leaders were set to brief their respective caucuses about a prospective deal, negotiations toward a scaled-back agreement to avoid the onset of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts on Jan. 1 appeared on the verge of breakdown.

Related:Obama: GOP's insistence on halting tax hikes for the wealthy is stopping fiscal cliff deal

McConnell said that he had even reached out to Vice President Joe Biden, a former senator who's helped hammer out previous deals, in hopes of jump-starting the talks. 

"He and the vice president, I wish them well," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said on the Senate floor. 

"In the meantime, I will try to come up with something," Reid added of Republicans' latest proposal, "but at this stage I don’t have a counter-offer to make."

Obama had offered chained CPI — which would essentially reduce the rate of growth in Social Security benefits over time — as part of a broader "grand bargain" he had previously proposed to Republicans. The GOP rejected that proposal, and moved from there onto House Speaker John Boehner's "Plan B," an ultimately unsuccessful effort. 

In his interview earlier today on NBC's "Meet the Press," the president pointed to his offer on chained CPI as evidence of his willingness to compromise in pursuit of a broad fiscal deal. 

"One of the proposals we made was something called Chain CPI, which sounds real technical but basically makes an adjustment in terms of how inflation is calculated on Social Security," Obama said. "Highly unpopular among Democrats. Not something supported by AARP. But in pursuit of strengthening Social Security for the long-term I'm willing to make those decisions."

A Senate Democratic aide said that Democrats had thought such a proposal was off the table, though, as part of the talks toward parried-down agreement. 

"It’s basically a poison pill," the aide said of Republicans' demand for chained CPI.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., expressed bewilderment at the breakdown, suggesting that there were more than enough votes for a compromise measure that didn't include chained CPI.

"I don't know what caused this but there's a critical mass of 80 senators who would vote to fix the [alternative minimum tax], the doc fix, extend unemployment insurance, protect everybody 500 thousand and below from a tax increase," he told reporters at the Capitol. "There's 80 senators who will do that without CPI."

McConnell, who spoke briefly on the Senate floor around 2 p.m., struck an ever-so-slightly sunnier note.

"There is no single issue that remains an impossible sticking point," the top Senate Republican said.  "I want everyone to know I'm willing to get this done. But I need a dance partner."

Senators are set to huddle with members of their respective parties this afternoon amid votes to discuss the latest as it relates to the fiscal cliff.

As House members return to town this evening for votes this evening, they'll also caucus with fellow party members to discuss what, if any, way forward there is on the fiscal cliff.

NBC's Frank Thorp contributed reporting.

Updated 6:30 p.m. ET -- President Barack Obama tasked the United States Senate with trying to resolve the “fiscal cliff” in the waning hours before the New Year following a meeting between congressional leaders and the president.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will lead the last-minute effort to avert the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts set to take effect on Jan. 1 unless Congress acts. 

And Obama said he is “optimistic” they can reach an accord before midnight on New Year’s Eve, the point at which the government would hit the fiscal cliff.

Absent that, the president said he had asked Reid to instead advance a bare-boned proposal that would extend the 2001 Bush tax cuts for income under $250,000.

Related -- Cliff Notes: Five things to watch at today's White House meeting

“I still want to get this done,” Obama said after his discussions with congressional leaders. He said “the hour for immediate action is here. It is now." 

The president will appear exclusively on Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," where he's expected to further outline steps toward reaching a final deal.

The White House talks -- at which Obama presented no new offer to Republicans in Congress -- yielded “no concrete proposal,” Reid told reporters at the Capitol following the meeting.

But in the waning hours before the end-of-year deadline, senators are now scrambling to produce a bipartisan package, at the request of Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, that can muster enough support in the House.

Reid, McConnell, Boehner, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., spent the meeting “discussing potential options and components for a plan that could pass both chambers of Congress,” according to a Boehner aide. 

But the most significant development appeared to be the emerging consensus that any final agreement would have to emerge from the Senate. That deal would necessarily require a “bipartisan approach,” according to the office of McConnell, the Republican leader in the upper chamber.

Among the major sticking points, senior Democratic aides told NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, involve the income threshold at which tax rates would be allowed to rise and the level at which estates are taxed.

Boehner’s failed effort last week to push through a fallback plan with only Republican votes laid bare the internal GOP divisions after conservatives balked at supporting a plan from the speaker to allow tax rates to rise on income over $1 million.

The unsuccessful effort suggested that Boehner would need to lean upon Pelosi for Democratic votes if a deal -- which has eluded Obama and Congress for the better part of the last two years -- is to pass. 

A Senate-led agreement, though, faces no surefire guarantee of passage in the House. 

“The speaker told the president that if the Senate amends the House-passed legislation and sends back a plan, the House will consider it -- either by accepting or amending,” Boehner’s aide emailed reporters.

The protracted stalemate between Obama-led Democrats and congressional Republicans had prompted Friday's last-ditch meeting at the White House. It lasted just over an hour, and included Vice President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner.

Sources familiar with the meeting said that Obama made no new offer to Republicans, urging them to hold an up-or-down vote on a Democratic proposal to preserve existing tax rates for income under $250,000 and extend unemployment benefits (among other unresolved issues). 

It’s that very proposal which Obama said he would ask Reid to advance should he and McConnell fail to strike a deal. 

“I believe such a proposal could pass both houses with bipartisan majorities, as long as those leaders actually allow it to come to a vote,” he said.

Republicans had previously rejected such a proposal, but could feel pressure to relent to administration pressure in order to forestall across-the-board tax hikes in just a few days. The source familiar with the meeting told NBC's Peter Alexander and Kristen Welker that Obama asked Republicans what they would be willing to support, if not that proposal.

Amid negotiations toward a final deal, the House was set to return to Washington on Sunday at Boehner’s request, and remain at work through Jan. 2 -- the final day before the 112th Congress concludes and the next batch of lawmakers are sworn into office.

In the meanwhile, Obama voiced frustration toward the repeated pattern in Congress these past few years of lurching from crisis to crisis before reaching a last-minute deal to stave off catastrophe. 

“The American people are watching what we do here. Obviously, their patience is already thin. This is deja vu all over again,” Obama said. “America wonders why, for some reason, in this town you can’t get stuff done in an organized timetable ... The American people are not going to have any patience for a politically self-inflicted wound to our economy.”

House and Senate leaders from both parties will make their way to the White House this afternoon at President Barack Obama’s request for a last-ditch effort to reach an agreement to avoid the impending fiscal cliff.

Related: Obama bringing lawmakers to Oval Office for last-minute 'cliff' talks

The parties will enter the meeting seeming as far apart as ever on an agreement to avert the combination of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts set to take effect on Jan. 1. Republicans, led by House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, say they have acted – by passing an extension of all of the expiring Bush tax cuts, an unpalatable proposition to Democrats – and now it’s the Senate’s turn.

The speaker’s office said Boehner “will continue to stress that the House has already passed legislation to avert the entire fiscal cliff and now the Senate must act” at tomorrow’s meeting.

And the Senate, led by Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., is demanding that the GOP-held House assents to a bill that would allow taxes to rise on income over $250,000 per year.

This posturing by both parties amounts to little more than a stalemate in lawmakers’ effort to avert the fiscal cliff, just days before the deadline to forge a deal. With that in mind, here are the variables to watch, which could signal either breakthrough or failure on the fiscal cliff.

TONE: Hopes for a fiscal cliff compromise spiked on Nov. 16 when the same congressional leaders who are gathering Friday appeared jointly following their first meeting at the White House to hail the “constructive” conversation, all the while avoiding the usual partisan barbs.

Negotiations have deteriorated in the weeks since then, to say the least.

But with time running out before the end-of-year deadline, how or whether lawmakers speak following their meeting with Obama could speak volumes about the prospects for a deal.

If Boehner, Reid, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., appear jointly – as they did in mid-November – it might portend good things about a potential resolution to the fiscal cliff.

But if they take to the microphones outside the West Wing separately (or issue statements), offering more vitriolic rhetoric and finger pointing, it would suggest bleak prospects for ongoing negotiations.

PROCESS: Much of the recent stalemate in Congress, as outlined above, involves whether it’s up to the House or the Senate to act first to resolve the fiscal cliff.

Recommended: Nearly out of time, lawmakers brace for blame on fiscal cliff

Neither party wants to be the one to make the first major concession, meaning that the House is looking to the Senate (and vice-versa) to be the first chamber to “jump,” so to speak.

Boehner has clearly and repeatedly signaled his desire to let the legislative process take its course. He argues that the Senate should amend any of the earlier tax bills that the Republican House has passed. The Senate could conceivably gut that legislation, replace it with any alternative that the upper chamber desires, and send it back to the House to see whether it can pass.

Alternatively, Reid is simply demanding that Republicans pass an existing Democratic tax bill, which would preserve existing tax rates on income under $250,000 a year. (Republicans counter that this law has a so-called “blue slip” problem –asserting that it’s procedurally flawed because tax bills cannot originate in the Senate, according to the Constitution.)

If the leaders emerge from their meeting at the White House with a clear idea of which chamber might act first, it would be a first step toward resolving the fiscal cliff by the New Year’s Eve deadline.

NUMBERS: Senate Democrats want the House to pass a bill that would preserve existing tax rates on incomes below $250,000.

Obama offered a deal to Boehner that would preserve income beneath a slightly higher threshold: $400,000 per year.

Boehner tried – and failed – to pass a bill (his “Plan B”) that would have kept tax rates the same for all income under $1 million.

If the leaders emerge from the White House today with some sort of number on which they have agreed, it could provide the framework for a final agreement.

Related: Boehner calls House back to Washington on Sunday

Just as important have been the topline numbers – that is, the target total savings in an agreement as collected from new taxes, or alternatively, spending cuts.

The president initially sought $1.6 trillion in new tax revenue before lowering that target to $1.4 trillion. Republicans offered $800 billion in revenue, which they said could be collected through tax reform that closes a number of deductions and loopholes.

At the same time, Obama’s last offer to Boehner included $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, including $400 billion in savings from entitlement programs.

An agreement of that scale seems unlikely with just a few days to go until the deadline, but an agreement on these topline numbers – either on a small deal, or a big deal – would suggest a degree of progress toward a solution.

CAN-KICKING: One option available to lawmakers would be to do something they’ve done all along: punt the problem to a later deadline.

In many respects, the fiscal cliff represents the ultimate example of lawmakers’ habit of kicking the can down the road. The automatic spending cuts that compose part of the cliff grew out of their inability to reach an agreement with Obama on taxes and spending during the debt ceiling fight in 2011. And the impending tax hikes are the byproduct of a two-year extension of the 2001 Bush tax cuts past their original expiration date in 2010.

But what Congress can do, it can also undo. And that means they could conceivably agree to delay the onset of the fiscal cliff for weeks, months or even a year to give themselves breathing room to negotiate a deal.

Furthermore, a decision to delay the fiscal cliff could mean that the contours of a fiscal cliff compromise have taken shape, and that lawmakers just need more time to hammer out the details. Alternatively, another can-kicking incident could rattle markets thanks to another instance of governing by lurching from crisis to crisis. Furthermore, it would do little to resolve the uncertainty on taxes that is hanging over many businesses heading into the new year.

THE FLANKS: Lastly, it’s important to keep an eye on the flanks in both parties – liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans – in terms of how they react to today’s meeting, and any possible deal that might emerge.

How many liberals or conservatives finish the day rattling their sabers, versus sitting on their hands?

The more anger there is on either flank toward any potential proposal, the more difficult it becomes for leaders in the House and Senate to find the necessary votes to approve an agreement – especially in such a politically polarized environment.

The importance of the flanks played vividly last week in the House, when conservatives refused to go along with Boehner’s “Plan B” (the proposal that would have allowed taxes to go up on millionaires) because, as the speaker put it, “they were dealing with the perception that somebody might accuse them of raising taxes.”

Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

President Barack Obama returns from Christmas visit in Hawaii to the White House, Dec. 27, 2012.

Any final agreement will almost certainly have to involve both Democratic and Republican votes. But if either party’s base is incensed by Friday’s meeting at the White House, it would make mustering the political willpower to pass an agreement that much more difficult.

The House of Representatives will reconvene on Sunday evening, just less than 30 hours before the United States reaches the fiscal cliff.

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, notified lawmakers that the House would come to order at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday in hopes of averting the end-of-year combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that constitute the fiscal cliff.

In briefing fellow Republicans on Thursday afternoon, Boehner re-iterated what he's said publicly the past few days. The top House Republican said the Senate must act first to send a bill to the House. (Senate Democratic leaders are insisting that the House pass a Senate bill that would preserve income tax rates on those earning less than $250,000 per year.)

"We've done our job, it's up to the Senate to act," Boehner told members, according to a lawmaker on the call. "We'll see if they do anything."

Related: What happens if we go over the cliff?

Whether any final deal could emerge in the waning hours before the Dec. 31 deadline was less clear. There were rumblings of a meeting on Friday between President Barack Obama and leaders in Congress. (A senior administration official told NBC's Kristen Welker that no such meeting had been set up.) And the White House shot down Republican-fueled indications that the Obama administration had made a new entreaty to the GOP in hopes of averting the fiscal cliff. 

Obama called congressional leaders on Wednesday evening before departing Hawaii to return to Washington, initiating conversations that fell largely dormant during the Christmas holiday this past weekend. 

Among the complicating details include the ideological split in both parties that might force relative moderates from both parties to join forces to advance any final deal. 

The lawmaker on Thursday's call told NBC News that any Senate plan Boehner puts on the House floor (of which there is no guarantee) would only receive as few as 40 Republican votes, making Democratic help necessary.

"If the Senate will not approve these bills and send them to the president to be signed into law in their current form, they must be amended and returned to the House," Boehner told Republicans Thursday, according to a source on the call. "Once this has occurred, the House will then consider whether to accept the bills as amended, or to send them back to the Senate with additional amendments. The House will take this action on whatever the Senate can pass -- but the Senate must act." 

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-Ohio, left, joined by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., returns to his office after speaking to reporters on the fiscal cliff negotiations, at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Dec. 21, 2012.

Updated 2:48 p.m. - The Senate’s top Democrat said Thursday that he was pessimistic that Washington could avoid the impending fiscal cliff, accusing House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, of running the lower chamber as a “dictatorship.”

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said he was unsure there was enough time between now and the end of the year to reach a deal to avoid the combination of spending cuts and tax hikes set to take effect on Jan. 1. Reid said “the only viable escape route” was for the GOP-controlled House to give its approval to a Senate bill that would preserve existing tax rates on income under $250,000.

“Everyone knows that if they had brought up the Senate-passed bill, it would pass overwhelmingly. But the speaker says, no we can't do that,” Reid said on the Senate floor this morning. “It's [the House] being operated by a dictatorship of the speaker.”

In response, a spokesman for Boehner said in a statement,  "Senator Reid should talk less and legislate more. The House has already passed legislation to avoid the entire fiscal cliff.  Senate Democrats have not."

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Reid’s remarks suggest there has been no thaw in the stalemate that has plagued Washington for weeks, as consensus continues to elude Republicans and Democrats on averting the fiscal cliff. Amid the standoff, President Barack Obama called Reid and  Boehner (along with House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell) late Wednesday from Hawaii. The president traveled back to the White House on Thursday following his brief family vacation.

"The leader is happy to review what the president has in mind, but to date, the Senate Democrat majority has not put forward a plan," said a spokesman for McConnell. "When they do, members on both sides of the aisle will review the legislation and make decisions on how best to proceed."

The discord almost gave way to an agreement on Thursday, as outgoing Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, R, posted on social media that he was rushing back to Washington to mull over a new offer Obama had made to Senate Republicans. Alas, those were false hopes; the administration and Senate Democrats flatly denied that they had made any new offer, and said that no agreement was imminent.

Both parties departed Washington on poor terms, a political chasm widened last week by Boehner’s unsuccessful pitch of “Plan B” legislation meant to extend tax rates on income under $1 million. Obama had vowed to veto it, and Boehner’s backup plan was generally regarded as more of a negotiating ploy than a comprehensive solution to the impending fiscal cliff. Nonetheless, conservatives balked at the speaker’s plan, laying bare Boehner’s ability to rally most Republicans behind any deal that even hinted at raising taxes.

And just five days before the onset of the fiscal cliff, Washington was locked in little more than a staring match between the House and Senate.

Republican leaders said in a joint statement on Wednesday that the Senate must amend Republican-passed legislation and return it to the House before any steps can be taken.

“The House will take this action on whatever the Senate can pass, but the Senate first must act,” the GOP leaders said.

But Reid said that arcane Senate rules prevented him from bringing up anything new for a vote. Republican leaders argue that the Senate bill also faces procedural flaws which would prevent it from consideration in the House; Democrats assert that the excuse is nonsense.

In the meantime, it appears that Thursday might be a lost day for negotiations. Obama landed in Washington around midday, but most House members remain in their districts. But Republican leaders notified their rank-and-file members that the House would be in session at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, and remain so for the remainder of the year. The Senate is in session on Thursday, but is concentrating on other unfinished business from this year.

The absence of the House, though, prompted Reid to lay into Republicans and fret that a fiscal cliff failure was all but inevitable.

“If we go over the cliff, and it looks like that's where we're headed, Mr. President – the House of Representatives as we speak with four days left after today before the first year aren't here with the speaker telling him he'll give them 48 hours’ notice," he said. "I can't imagine their consciences – they're out wherever they are around the country and we're here trying to get something done."

Mary F. Calvert / Reuters

The U.S. Capitol building is pictured as lawmakers return from the Christmas recess in Washington Dec. 27, 2012.

Amid the standoff, each party was left bracing for the potential political fallout associated with a fiscal cliff failure.

The bleak atmosphere in Washington appeared to be extending across the country, for instance. A Gallup poll conducted Dec. 21-22 – as lawmakers left the Capitol for the Christmas holiday with no deal in hand – found that optimism in leaders’ ability to reach a deal had declined; just 50 percent viewed a deal as somewhat or very likely, versus 48 percent who said a fiscal cliff agreement was not too or very unlikely.

And as Congress and the administration appears set to do anything but, 68 percent of Americans said they thought the principal actors should compromise, versus sticking rigidly to their ideological guideposts.

As lawmakers departed Washington without progress on the so-called fiscal cliff negotiations, President Barack Obama urged members of Congress to "cool off" over the Christmas holiday and address a short-term solution to the looming deficit issue before the end of the year, even if a larger bargain remains out of reach for now.

"In the next few days I've asked leaders of Congress to work towards a package that prevents a tax hike on middle class Americans, protects unemployment insurance for two million Americans, and lays the groundwork for further work on both growth and deficit reduction," he said in a statement to reporters late Friday afternoon. "That's an achievable goal."

Obama said that Republicans and Democrats agree that tax rates on all but the top two percent of earners should not be raised by the cliff's automatically-triggered measures that will go into effect in just 10 days without congressional action.

"Averting this middle class tax hike is not a Democratic responsibility or a Republican responsibility," he argued. "With their votes, the American people have determined that governing is a shared responsibility between both parties."

His remarks came after the House failed to take action on a 'Plan B' measure to maintain Bush-era tax rates for all earners making under $1 million annually. That bill was opposed by the White House as well as by much of House Speaker John Boehner's own caucus, and Boehner was forced to pull it from the floor without a vote.

Related:  Boehner's fiscal path forward: 'God only knows'

Obama alluded to that turmoil in his remarks, as well as to some dissent within his own party about potential compromises on entitlements and spending cuts.

"The challenge that we've got right now is that the American people are a lot more sensible, a lot more thoughtful, and much more willing to compromise and give and sacrifice and act responsibly than their elected representatives are," Obama said. "That's a problem."

"Call me a hopeless optimist," the president near the end of his remarks, "but I actually still think we can get it done."

The House and Senate adjourned for the Christmas holiday today.  Following his remarks Friday evening, the president and his family departed for a holiday break in Hawaii.

Urging members to consider avenues for compromise, Obama asked members of Congress to get "perspective" during the Christmas holiday before returning to Washington to work on a short-term deal.

"As we leave town for a few days to be with our families for the holidays, I hope that gives everybody some perspective," he said. "Everybody can cool off, everybody can drink some egg nog, have some Christmas cookies, sing some Christmas carols, enjoy the company of loved ones. And I'd ask every member of Congress, while they're at home, to think about that, to think about the obligations we have to the people who sent us here."

Updated 1:19 p.m. — A path toward resolving the impending the co-called fiscal cliff was suspended in limbo Friday following a dramatic defeat for House Speaker John Boehner, whose own rank-and-file members refused to support his backup plan Thursday night.

After conservatives balked at Boehner's "Plan B," which would have preserved current income tax rates for those making less than $1 million, the nation's top elected Republican shrugged off questions about whether his job was in danger. And as Washington prepares for a holiday break, Democrats and Republicans are further apart than ever on a plan to avoid the combination of tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect in just 11 days.

And the Ohio Republican emerged Friday urging President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats to re-engage in talks toward an overarching deal toward resolving the fiscal cliff, the combination of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts (which fall heavily upon the defense budget) set to take effect on Jan. 1.

"I'm interested in solving the major problems facing our country," Boehner said at a press conference on Capitol Hill. "And that means House leaders, Senate leaders and the president are going to continue to have to work together to address those concerns."

In the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., demanded that Boehner allow a Democratic proposal to extend tax rates for income under $250,000 to come up for a vote.

"There's nothing preventing the speaker from taking up our bill," Reid said Friday afternoon on the Senate floor. Boehner did say the House would "certainly take a look" at that bill, if the Senate manages to resolve a procedural holdup that would bar the House from considering the legislation. (Reid called that excuse "phony.")

But the speaker's task has become more vexing than ever; conservatives sent a powerful signal yesterday that they would not approve any tax increase, even on millionaires. Obama's demand that tax rates be allowed to rise for the wealthiest Americans amounts to a seemingly intractable standoff with House Republicans.

Boehner said that many lawmakers still prefer broad reforms to the tax code, but he acknowledged the difficulty in reaching any consensus: "How we get there? God only knows."

The speaker seemed unconcerned, though, about the prospects for an uprising from fellow Republicans.

"No, I am not," Boehner said when asked directly whether he should be concerned about his position. "If you do the right things every day for the right reasons, the right things will happen."

Republican leaders dismissed House lawmakers for the holiday weekend after pulling the vote on Thursday evening. Boehner said they would be recalled to Washington "as needed." The Democratic-controlled Senate is currently scheduled to reconvene next Thursday, Dec. 27. 

"It's too bad Speaker Boehner wasted a week on this futile, political stunt," Reid said. "It's time for the speaker and all Republicans to return to the negotiating table."

The intervening time period might allow for Boehner and Obama to reach an agreement, though its final approval in the House would almost certainly involve the speaker turning to Democrats for votes. That would strengthen Obama's ability to insist upon tax rates, spending cuts and entitlement reforms that hew more closely to the plan on which he campaigned for much of this year. 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said Boehner has "done his part. He's bent over backwards." As an alternative, the top Senate Republican proposed extending tax rates for a full year with instructions to enact tax reform in the meanwhile. (Democrats rejected it out-of-hand.)

For their part, Republicans said they would look to Obama for action on a path forward.

"I don't want taxes to go up, Republicans don't want taxes to go up," Boehner said. "But we only run the House; Democrats continue to run Washington."

McConnell said: "It's the president's job — it's his job — to find a solution that can pass the Congress."

In the meanwhile, Boehner said he remained committed to working toward a deal, and said he was not interested in giving up his position as speaker.