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  • 21
    Oct
    2012
    7:40pm, EDT

    Mayor Villaraigosa blasts Republicans on immigration

    By NBC's Jamie Novogrod

    Follow @JamieNBCNews

     

    DES MOINES, Iowa – Speaking to Democratic activists at a fundraising dinner here on Saturday, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa lashed out at the Republican Party and said a Mitt Romney presidency would halt progress won under President Barack Obama.

    "Today, between the Tea Partiers, the climate change deniers, the birthers and the flat-earthers, I hardly recognize the Republican Party anymore," Villaraigosa said, telling the crowd that as a mayor he has sought to work across party lines. 

    "Republicans used to stand for something,” he said. “And now they just stand in the way." 


    Villaraigosa was in Des Moines to headline the Iowa Democrats' Jefferson Jackson dinner, the state party's annual marquee fundraising event. 

    In an interview, he called the invitation a great honor. Past keynoters have included other Democrats on a national trajectory, including a turn in 2007 by then-candidate Obama.

    But if it seems like Villaraigosa is eyeing a White House bid, he wouldn't say.

    "My aspiration right now is to get the president elected," he told NBC News. 

    Villaraigosa will be term-limited next year in Los Angeles and said he wants to "finish strong." 

    Though he supported Hillary Clinton for president in 2008, he has since emerged as a visible surrogate for President Obama. 

    In September, he served as chairman of the Democratic National Convention, helping to raise the profile of the Hispanic community at a time when both parties are battling over the country's largest-growing demographic.

    Villaraigosa said during the interview that he predicted Obama would win more than 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in August – a time when the president, though still enjoying an advantage, was polling in the low 60s. 

    "I still maintain that when it's all said and done, Latinos will vote overwhelmingly for President Obama," Villaraigosa said Saturday.

    He cited Republican opposition to the DREAM act, which would provide a path to citizenship for children who moved to the United States illegally as children, and which he said Republicans say is a "handout."

    Asked about Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the rising Republican star who makes frequent references to faith, family and free market principles – ideas that some conservatives say will lead Hispanics to the Republican Party – Villaraigosa was polite but said the GOP has "gone so far to the right."

    "I have a lot of respect for him," Villaraigosa said of Rubio. "But that's not the point of view reflected in the Latino vote."

    (Rubio has said the Republican Party needs to soften on immigration, and has proposed alternative legislation which would not include the DREAM Act's pathway to citizenship.)

    While Villaraigosa called for moderation from the right, he was outspoken in his defense of the broad reforms enacted by the Obama administration that Republicans have called divisive and have pledged to undo.

    During his speech, he called the election a decision on the country's "fundamental direction."

    "What people don't realize about those first two years with Nancy Pelosi and Democratic majority in the House and Senate, and President Obama," he said, "it actually was the most productive congress since the Johnson administration."

     

    424 comments

    ...this from a guy whose city and state are being flushed down the crapper because of illegal immigrants (people who have entered the country without benefit of inspection)! i have no problem with legal immigrants (those who played the game and waited in line to enter). my grandfather was a legal im …

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  • 20
    Sep
    2012
    4:29pm, EDT

    Obama tries to explain immigration reform failure at Latino forum

    By Michael O'Brien, NBC News
    Follow @mpoindc

     

    President Barack Obama said his inability to achieve comprehensive immigration reform during his first term was a disappointment for which he was ultimately responsible, but cautioned Latino voters that Mitt Romney would no better meet their political demands.

    At a forum Thursday hosted by the Spanish-language broadcaster Univision, Obama said that more pressing issues -- like the perilous state of the economy in early 2009 -- and Republican intransigence were to blame for his inability to accomplish comprehensive immigration reform. Obama had vowed to pursue immigration reform in his first year; the president's failure to do so has to an extent endangered his support from within the Latino community.

    "There's the thinking that the president is somebody who is all-powerful and can get everything done. In our system of government, I am the head of the executive branch. I'm not the head of the legislature. I'm not the head of the judiciary," Obama said. "We have to have cooperation from all these sources in order to get something done. And so I am happy to take responsibility for the fact that we didn't get it done, but I did not make a promise that I would get everything done 100 percent when I was elected as president."

    The Obama administration did in June authorize administrative action that opted against pursuing the deportment of people who were illegally brought to the U.S. as children. The rule accomplishes much of the same outcomes as the DREAM Act, which Obama had supported and Congress failed to pass over conservative objections.

    Obama sought to dispel the idea that his June action was meant to excite Latino voters.

    "I think if you take a look at the polls, I was winning the Latino vote before we took that action, partly because the other side had completely abandoned their commitment to things like comprehensive immigration reform," the president said.

    In reflecting on the difficulty he had in pursuing immigration reform, Obama also commented that he learned "that you can't change Washington from the inside -- you can only change it from the outside."

    That comment quickly was made into fodder by Republicans, and Romney, stumping shortly after Obama's event this afternoon in Sarasota, pounced on that admission.

    Moderator Jorge Ramos bluntly told the president that failing to pass immigration reform was a broken promise. Republican presidential nominee has seized upon this to make inroads with Latinos, among whom he badly trails versus Obama.

    Like Obama in 2008, candidate Romney has promised to pass comprehensive immigration reform in his first year if elected. But while Obama had specified his reforms -- Obama had expressed support for the DREAM Act and a broader immigration bill that have immigrants in the U.S. illegally a pathway to citizenship -- Romney has not said what form his "comprehensive" effort would take, beyond stressing it would supersede the president's own action on immigration.

    For both candidates, electoral considerations are firmly in mind in their politicking. Romney could fare more poorly with Latinos than any other Republican presidential candidate in recent memory. Obama led Romney 63 to 28 percent in the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll of registered Hispanic voters. That's a level of support well below his campaign's stated goal of 38 percent of the vote.

    Obama, however, can't easily rest on that advantage. Enthusiasm in voting among Latinos is well below its 2008 levels, meaning the president still faces major work in motivating this crucial bloc to go to the polls. In states like Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and beyond, the Latino vote could prove pivotal.

    58 comments

    Can't break a promise the do-nothing, racist, xenophobic Teapublican Congress won't act on. The Dream Act is the best hope for immigrant children at least. Hoping President Obama grows coat tails. Because... Rombot and the Tea.O.P.Have.Nothing.

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  • 26
    Aug
    2012
    10:15am, EDT

    GOP elders describe high stakes for Romney in Tampa

    On Meet the Press, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush says the Republican Party needs to try and stay focused on the economy instead of

    By Michael O'Brien, NBC News
    Follow @mpoindc

     

    TAMPA, Fla. – Republican elders said Sunday that this week’s Republican National Convention here in Florida offered Mitt Romney an opportunity to re-introduce himself to voters heading into the height of the fall campaign season.

    As GOP heavyweights gather in Florida for a hurricane-shortened convention, some of the party’s most influential voices laid out on “Meet the Press” the stakes for Romney.

    The convention offered Romney a chance “to reconnect with people,” said former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) of the forthcoming convention.

    Convention organizers canceled Monday’s activities due to safety concerns associated with an impending hurricane, leaving Romney and the GOP with one less day to drive its message about what they charge are the failures of President Barack Obama, particularly when it comes to matters of the economy.

    NBC News Political Director, Chuck Todd, DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Republican Governor from Arizona, Jan Brewer, and Republican Strategist Mike Murphy discuss what changes in the polls could occur following the Republican National Convention.

    But Republicans also acknowledged that Romney must use this national platform to reverse some of the damage done to his personal reputation over the summer. The Obama campaign and Democratic super PACs have spent tens of millions of dollars on television ads in key swing states taking aim at Romney’s private sector career, personal wealth and handling of issues important to women.

    Related: McCain: Further delays to GOP convention 'could be harmful'

    Exacerbating problems for the Republican brand has been this past week’s uproar over Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin’s (R) comments about “legitimate rape.” Republicans have sharply distanced themselves from the conservative congressman’s remarks, while Democrats have sought to link those sentiments with Romney and the Republican Party as a whole.

    “I'm surprised that we, the Romney-Ryan ticket, are neck and neck in the polls right now particularly with some of the setbacks we have experienced,” said Arizona Sen. John McCain, the GOP’s 2008 presidential nominee.

    Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his wife Ann arrive at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints in Wolfeboro, New Hampshire, to attend Sunday services on August 26, 2012.

    Recommended: Hurricane impending, Republicans cancel first day of convention

    Convention organizers have laid out a daily theme here in Tampa meant to soften Romney’s public image and offer greater insight into his family and charitable work, among other personal details. The convention also revolves heavily around leveling an indictment of Obama’s economic policy during the last four years.

    It’s a high-stakes act for Romney; the conventions are regarded as one of the few opportunities to sway undecided voters, whose numbers are dwindling in this especially competitive election.

    “This is the big Etch A Sketch moment for Mitt Romney,” Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, said Sunday of the impending Republican festivities.

    On Meet the Press, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., talks about his experience four years ago dealing with severe weather in the midst of the Republican National Convention.

    But there are also long-term stakes for Republicans this week in Tampa, particularly as it relates to closing the gap among women and Hispanic voters, with whom Obama enjoys a healthy advantage over Romney in the polls.

    “My personal view is that we need to move beyond where we are,” Bush said of the current Republican rhetoric on immigration. He said that, on immigration, Republicans must change “not necessarily the core of our beliefs but the tone of our message and the intensity of it.”

    But Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R), the chief proponent of a tough immigration law in her home state, said Republicans must emphasize “the rule of law.”

    From Florida, David Gregory reports on Romney's likeability challenge; Andrea Mitchell reports on Republicans trying to push Akin from the race; and Chuck Todd notes that Romney faces another storm, this one named Isaac.

    She added: “Certainly those kinds of issues are going to have to be discussed moving on into the future.”

    Related: Jeb Bush on White House run: 'I'm not there yet in my life'

    But Republicans overall stressed the primacy of the economy this election cycle, the issue on which Romney has an advantage over Obama in most polls.

    “I think Mitt wins when it's about these big things,” Bush said. “When it's about the constant distractions, it'll be a very, very close race.”

    1477 comments

    By GNOP elders, don't you mean the party of pale, male & stale? Willard is losing the women vote by 10% Willard is losing the hispanic vote by over 30% Willard has ZERO percent of black voters And, these dinasours still believe they are the 'big tent party"? These days, they couldn't fill a "pu …

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  • 10
    Jul
    2012
    10:30pm, EDT

    Michelle Obama in Florida: 'We need to keep moving forward'

    By NBC's Jamie Novogrod

    Follow @JamieNBCNews

     

    Orlando, Fla. -- Speaking before a crowd of more than 2,000 Tuesday at the University of Central Florida, First Lady Michelle Obama listed President Barack Obama’s initiatives during his first term – including his recent executive order to stop deporting undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children – and said those policies are all “on the line” in November’s election.

    “In the end, it all boils down to one simple question. Are we going to continue the change we begun, the progress we made?” Obama said. “Are we going to let everything that we fought for to just slip away?”

    “We cannot turn back now,” she added. “We need to keep moving forward.”


    The reference to President Barack Obama’s announcement last month that he had moved to block the deportation of hundreds of thousands of young illegal immigrants was perhaps an indication of how crucial Florida – rich in Latino votes – has become in an increasingly tight election.

    “He knows and believes that it is time to stop denying responsible, young people opportunities in this country because they’re the children of undocumented immigrants. It’s time to stop that,” Obama said of her husband’s support for the DREAM act, which would offer a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who have graduated from high school.

    The measure has been held up in Congress since 2010.

    According to pool reports earlier in the day, Obama made a quick surprise visit to  the Blanchard Park YMCA in a mostly Hispanic neighborhood in Orlando. Many children recognized her – one girl covered her grin with both hands but could not hide it. Another asked for a hug.

    At the university, Obama spoke for about 25 minutes inside the basketball arena.  A state fire official estimated there were 2,251 people in the bleachers and on the gym floor.

    There was no mention of the president’s opponent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, or of class and money – prominent themes in the attack ads released by both sides.

    Still, Obama made a careful pitch of her husband as an ordinary man, whose origins as the son of a single mother “who struggled to put herself through school and pay the bills” leavens his judgment in office.

    “I have seen how as president you are going to get all kind of advice for all kinds of people,” Obama said. “But at the end of the day, let me tell you when it comes time to make that decision as president, all you have to guide you are your life experiences. All you have to direct you are your values.”

    "We all know who my husband is, don’t we?" Obama added. "We all know what Barack Obama stands for, don’t we?” 

     

    423 comments

    ALL immigrants are welcome here - but they have to enter LEGALLY. Obama does not care about this country - he just wants to change it for the worse. Can't wait till he's out of office - maybe he will move to Europe.

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  • 4
    Jul
    2012
    3:08pm, EDT

    Obama urges immigration reform at citizenship ceremony

    President Obama greets U.S. service members while hosting a naturalization ceremony Wednesday to declare them American citizens.

    By NBC's Shawna Thomas

    WASHINGTON – In a moving naturalization ceremony in the East Room of the White House, 25 active members of the military declared their allegiance to the United States and became U.S. citizens on Wednesday.

    The group hailed from countries ranging from the Ukraine to Cameroon to Honduras. President Barack Obama used the event to highlight his recent immigration announcement and renew the call for comprehensive immigration reform.

    The president proclaimed that “America’s success demands comprehensive immigration reform” and that a “Dream Act,” legislation that would give young illegal immigrants a path toward permanent residency, was still necessary.

    “For just as we remain a nation of laws, we have to remain a nation of immigrants. That's why as another step forward we're lifting the shadow of deportation…from deserving young people who were brought to this country as children.  That's why we still need a Dream Act to keep talented young people who want to contribute to our society and serve our country,” the president said.

    He used the 25 men and women in uniform before him as an example of how the American dream “endures for all those…who are willing to work hard, play by the rules and meet their responsibilities.”

    The president also declared the naturalization ceremony as  the “perfect way to celebrate America’s birthday.”  He also said of the group, “All of you did something profound.  You chose to serve.  You put on the uniform of a country that was not yet fully your own in a time of war.  Some of you deployed into harm's way. You displayed the values that we celebrate every Fourth of July: Duty, responsibility and patriotism.”

    Last month, Obama announced a policy to stop deporting young illegal immigrants who entered the United States as children if they meet certain requirements.

    After administering the Oath of Allegiance, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano highlighted efforts by the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security to expedite the naturalization process for members of the military.

    “Since 2001, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has naturalized over 80,000 members of the armed forces, bringing immigration services to our troops wherever they serve. And since 2009, we have offered non-citizen enlistees the opportunity to naturalize before completing basic training so they can graduate as American citizens,” she said.   

    It currently takes a few weeks to a few months for an immigrant who has enlisted in the U.S. military to become naturalized citizen.   However, one must be a legal immigrant to enlist, therefore the president’s embargo on deporting young illegal immigrants does not give them an opportunity to enlist and find a way to citizenship via that pathway.

     

     

    231 comments

    It may be a step in the right direction, or maybe not. But at least its a step. Which is more than I can say for the party of "No", who,ve done nothing about it but whine and bitch, and use the issue as a politcal platform... Obama/Biden 2012

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  • 29
    Jun
    2012
    9:07am, EDT

    First Thoughts: Ending the month on a high note

    Team Obama, after a rough start, ends the month on a high note… Obama the escape artist… Can Republicans still repeal the law?... And do they have the appetite to do so?... Roberts puts his stamp on the decision... Obama travels to Colorado (arriving at 1:55 pm ET) to inspect the wildfires there… Rothenberg Report doesn’t see a House wave coming… And “Meet the Press” will have Nancy Pelosi, Bobby Jindal, and Howard Dean.

    By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

    Pete Souza / AFP - Getty Images

    President Barack Obama talking on the phone with Solicitor General Donald Verrilli in the Oval Office of the White House June 28, 2012 after learning of the Supreme Court's ruling on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

    *** Ending the month on a high note: Perception-wise, June started off as a rough month for President Obama and his allies. First came that disappointing May jobs report; then the Democrats’ loss in the Wisconsin recall; then more bad news out of Europe; Obama’s “the private sector is doing fine” remark; and finally the development that Team Romney outraised Team Obama in May. But the thing about perception is that it can change, and it did in the second half of the month. The president’s immigration/deportation announcement put Romney on the defensive; the Washington Post made the charge that Romney invested in firms that shipped jobs overseas; numerous polls showed that the overall fundamentals of the race hadn’t changed, suggesting that the Obama ads have been more effective in the swing states than the GOP ads; and yesterday the U.S. Supreme Court -- countering a lot of the conventional wisdom -- upheld his signature health-care law. So what started out as a rocky month for Obama ended in a better place for him, just as he embarks on his post-July 4 bus tour through Ohio and Pennsylvania next week.

    The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd talks about the mood at the White House and the mood of Republicans after the Supreme Court's ruling to uphold the health care reform law.

    *** The escape artist: Yesterday’s SCOTUS outcome was typical of what we’ve seen for Obama over the past four years: He finds his back against the wall -- sometimes due to his own doing, sometimes not -- and then escapes disaster. We saw this during the Dem primary season before Iowa (remember the summer of ’07); during Jeremiah Wright; during the ’08 general after the McCain-Palin bounce, during the 2009-2010 health-care fight; and now after the Supreme Court’s ruling yesterday, which easily could have gone the other way. And make no mistake: The decision upholding the law was something Obama and his allies NEEDED; they had to have something to show for the steep price they paid for the health-care law. This was a hurdle the president had to clear to get to November; but the ruling is no political booster rocket. He simply doesn’t have a new drag. Of course, as relates to his re-election, Obama once again finds his back against the wall. The unemployment rate is at 8.2%, and a majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. Can he again pull a rabbit from his hat here? We’ll find out in four months.

    *** Can Republicans still repeal the law? As for Mitt Romney, his campaign made lemonade out of yesterday’s health-care lemons by announcing that it and its victory fund raised more than $4 million from 42,000 donors since Thursday’s ruling. (Although do keep in mind that Team Romney averaged $2.5 million per day last month.) And Romney made this argument after the decision -- vote for me because I will repeal the health-care law. But is repeal a realistic outcome? On “Morning Joe,” House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said that Senate Republicans could do it through reconciliation. But conservative writer David Frum argues that Republicans would no longer have the high political ground; they’d find themselves in the same position Democrats did in 2009-2010. “Suddenly it will be their town halls filled with outraged senior citizens whose benefits are threatened; their incumbencies that will be threatened.” The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza makes two other points: 1) the Congressional Budget Office, like it did last time, would probably rule that repealing the health-care would INCREASE the deficit, and 2) reconciliation can be used only for things that have a budgetary effect. “Much of the A.C.A., such as the insurance exchanges and subsidies, would fall under these categories. But a lot of it, including the hated individual mandate, does not.”

    *** And how much appetite do they have? Here’s a separate question: How much appetite will Romney have in continually making this repeal argument? Indeed, Obama already had a rebuttal to this in his own remarks yesterday: Isn’t it time to move on? “The highest Court in the land has now spoken… But what we won’t do -- what the country can’t afford to do -- is refight the political battles of two years ago, or go back to the way things were.” There’s also the risk for Romney that talking about repealing health-care will only give Team Obama opportunities to show clips like this one, via American Bridge, of Romney touting his Massachusetts health-care law and its own individual mandate. And Romney’s folks may come to the conclusion that they don’t need to talk about health care because every other Republican will. He may have the luxury (and political necessity) to pivot off of health care, other than using it at rallies, while the various House and Senate GOP candidates pound away. This is one of those issues that could have less impact on the presidential but more on the downballot races.

    *** Roberts puts his stamp on the decision: And, of course, we have to talk about Chief Justice John Roberts. Back in March, after the oral arguments in the health-care case, we wrote about the negative consequences of another 5-4 decision. But the 5-4 decision we got yesterday -- with the conservative Roberts joining the four reliable liberal justices – was something different: It made the court look less political. “The fact that the chief justice, a conservative appointed by Republicans, wrote the opinion today would and should give Americans a lot of confidence in the decision that it's not just a political thing," SCOTUSBlog’s Tom Goldstein told NBC’s Pete Williams yesterday. In the process, Roberts is getting lots of praise in the MSM (though also criticism on the right). Here’s Dana Milbank’s headline in the Washington Post: “The umpire strikes back.” For you conservative historians, we even saw some Twitter references to the old “impeach Earl Warren” billboards. That said, we’re fascinated by the contortions many more serious conservative commentators are doing re: Roberts. They are actually holding their fire.

    *** Obama travels to Colorado: Transitioning from yesterday’s health-care decision, Obama heads to Colorado today to inspect the wildfires spreading throughout the state. He arrives in the state at 1:55 pm ET.

    *** Team Rothenberg doesn’t see a House wave coming: The Rothenberg Political Report has updated its House forecast for November. Bottom line: It (like the Cook Political Report) doesn’t see a wave coming. “Our new projection for gains/losses in the House this November is now between a +1 gain for Republicans and a +6 gain for Democrats.” More: “We rate 201 seats a safe GOP, 161 safe Dem, 25 as Lean/Favored for the GOP, 19 for Lean/Favored for the Dems, and we have 29 total tossups. The 29 includes 9 pure toss-ups (CA-7, CO-6, IL-11, MN-8, NY-1, NY-19, NY-21, NY-27, PA-12), 15 Toss-Up/Tilt GOP (CA-52, CO-3, FL18, IA-3 moved this week toward the GOP, IL 12, IL13, MI 1 moved this week toward the Democrats, MI11, NH1, NV3, NY11, NY18, OH, 16, TX 23 and UT4), and 5 Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat (CA-41, NY24, RI1, WA1).”

    *** On “Meet” this Sunday: NBC’s David Gregory will interview House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, plus have a debate between Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Howard Dean.

    Countdown to GOP convention: 59 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 66 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 130 days

    Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
    Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
    Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

    2844 comments

    After the SCOTUS final ruling on the Affordable Care Act yesterday, the GOP deflect & dramatize strategy kicked into high gear. Of course Issa's mission is to negate the President's successes - and manufacture whatever against the White House. Darryl Issa admits there is zero evidence against t …

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  • 26
    Jun
    2012
    6:29pm, EDT

    NBC/WSJ poll: Obama, Romney remain in dead heat

    By NBC News Senior Political Editor Mark Murray
    Follow @mmurraypolitics

     

    President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney remain locked in a tight contest, with each candidate displaying significant strengths and weaknesses four months before Election Day, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

    For Obama, he runs stronger than Romney does in the key swing states, and he holds a strong base of support among young voters, African Americans and Latinos. What’s more, the president continues to be personally popular.

    This photo combo shows President Barack Obama in Chapel Hill, N.C. on April 24, 2012, and Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on April 18, 2012 in Charlotte, N.C.

    But in the past month, the public has grown more pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy and the country’s direction. And two key parts of Obama’s base – young voters and Latinos – aren’t as enthusiastic about the election as they were four years ago.

    For Romney, key Republican groups – including the Tea Party – have begun to rally around the former Massachusetts governor, and he has the opportunity to capitalize on the attitudes about the economy and nation’s trajectory.

    Read the full poll results here (.pdf)

    Yet he largely remains a largely undefined figure, and his favorable-unfavorable rating is still a net-negative.

    “If the election is a referendum on health care or the economy, the odds work to Romney’s favor,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Obama is the odds-on favorite if it’s a referendum on the personal aspects.”


     

    Stable numbers after another unstable month

    After another eventful month in American politics – the disappointing May jobs numbers, the unsuccessful gubernatorial recall in Wisconsin, the economic uncertainty in Europe and Obama’s recent immigration announcement – the Obama vs. Romney race is essentially unchanged.

    Related: NBC/WSJ poll: More would be pleased if health law ruled unconstitutional

    In the poll, the president leads his presumptive challenger by three points among registered voters, 47 to 44 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.

    Last month, Obama’s edge over Romney was four points, 47 to 43 percent.

    Also in the current poll, the president’s overall approval rating stands at 47 percent (down a point from May), and his favorable-unfavorable score is 48 to 38 percent (which is essentially unchanged).

    “It looks like a dead heat on a merry-go-round,” Hart adds. “The position of the two horses has not changed.”

    Obama is ahead among African Americans (92 to 1 percent), women (52 to 39 percent), Latinos, voters ages 18-29 (52 to 35 percent) and independents (40 to 36 percent).

    Romney leads among Tea Party supporters (94 to 1 percent), whites (53 to 38 percent) and men (48 to 43 percent).

    And the two are running even among seniors, Midwest residents and high-interest voters.

    Speaking in Virginia, Mitt Romney offered his first public response the Supreme Court decision on Arizona's immigration law saying the Court had to weigh in because President Obama "failed to lead." On the health care decision expected Thursday, Romney said if it's ruled unconstitutional, Obama "wasted" most of his first term.

    The swing states: Obama’s lead and Romney’s decline

    Another place where Obama is running ahead: the swing states.

    Among swing-state respondents in the poll – those living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin – Obama leads Romney, 50 to 42 percent.

    Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped, possibly reflecting the toll the negative Obama TV advertisements are having on the former Massachusetts governor in these battlegrounds.

    A month ago, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable score stood at 34-38 percent nationally and 36-36 percent in the 12 swing states.

    But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33-39 percent and 30-41 percent in the swing states. 

    In addition, the poll shows that attitudes about Romney’s business background – a frequent target in Obama ads – also are more unfavorable in these battlegrounds.

    Related: NBC/WSJ poll: Six in 10 say Obama inherited current economy

    Among swing-state respondents, 18 percent say what they’ve seen and heard about Romney’s business record gives them a more positive opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33 percent who say it’s more negative.

    That’s compared to the national 23-to-28 percent margin on this question.

    “It’s been more of a problematic month from May to June for Romney,” says McInturff, the GOP pollster.

    Down on the economy and nation’s direction

    But it’s also been a problematic month for Obama when it comes to U.S. economy. According to the poll, 49 percent say they’re less optimistic about the economy after what they’ve seen, read and heard in the last few weeks, compared with 43 percent who are more optimistic.

    What’s more, 53 percent disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, which is up one point from last month.

    And 61 percent believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, a three-point increase from May.

    Still, another six in 10 believe that Obama inherited the current economic conditions, and 51 percent say the U.S. economy is recovering rather than not recovering.

    Yet, asked whether the president’s policies have helped or hurt the economy, 33 percent say they’ve hurt; 32 percent say they’ve helped; and another 32 percent answer that they haven’t made much of a difference.

    What also has to concern Obama and his campaign is enthusiasm, especially among key demographic groups.

    The poll shows that Democrats are showing their highest level of interest in the presidential election this year, matching Republicans on this question. But the internal numbers also find Latinos and young voters aren’t as interested as they were four years ago.

    “The president has an enormous stake in turning out 18-29 year olds and Latinos,” McInturff says.

    A largely undefined Romney

    Meanwhile, the challenge for Romney is far different: create a stronger impression with the American public.

    Although the poll shows that only 6 percent of respondents don’t know who Romney is, just 20 percent say they “know a lot” about him, versus 43 percent who indicate the same about Obama. (That said, Romney’s percentage here is comparable to Obama’s when he was running for president at this same point in 2008.)

    In addition, a majority of Romney supporters – 58 percent – say their vote is more against Obama than for Romney. That’s compared to a whopping 72 percent of Obama supporters who say their vote is more for Obama than against Romney.

    Public Opinion Strategies

    “He’s a known name but an unknown person,” Hart, the Democratic pollster, says of Romney. “They just haven’t related to him.”

    When respondents in the poll were asked to say the first thing that came to their mind when thinking about Romney as president, 43 percent of the answers were negative. The top examples: wealthy/favor the wealthy (12 percent), bad/disaster (7 percent), out of touch (7 percent) and women’s rights/abortion stance (5 percent).

    By contrast, 40 percent of the answers about Romney were positive, such as good businessman (10 percent), change (10 percent), conservative/for smaller government (7 percent) and improve economy (5 percent).

    For Obama, 52 percent of the open-ended answers for him were negative: economy (15 percent), lack of experience/incompetent (9 percent), Obamacare (8 percent), high unemployment (6 percent) and broken promises (6 percent).

    Another 44 percent were positive: good leader/doing good job (10 percent), for the people (6 percent), health-care reform (5 percent) and fair/honest (5 percent).

    Public Opinion Strategies

    The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted by live telephone interviews of 1,000 adults (250 by cell phone) from June 20-24, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

    1811 comments

    Fisty? You kidding?

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  • 26
    Jun
    2012
    1:49pm, EDT

    Romney: If health reform is stricken, Obama's first term 'wasted'

    Speaking in Virginia, Mitt Romney offered his first public response the Supreme Court decision on Arizona's immigration law saying the Court had to weigh in because President Obama "failed to lead."

    By NBC's Garrett Haake
    Follow @GarrettNBCNews

     

    SALEM, VA -- Mitt Romney said Tuesday that President Obama will have "wasted" much of his first term if the Supreme Court decides Thursday that the president's health reform law is unconstitutional.

    Amid a flurry of politically important rulings by the high court this week -- including yesterday's immigration decision -- Romney positioned himself in anticipation of Thursday's scheduled verdict on "ObamaCare."

    "If Obamacare is not deemed constitutional, then the first three and a half years of this president's term will have been wasted on something that has not helped the American people," Romney told a crowd of some 1,500 supporters here today. "If it is deemed to stand, then I'll tell you one thing. Then we'll have to have a president, and I'm that one, that's gonna get rid of Obamacare. We're gonna stop it on day one."

    Romney has long been forced to wrestle with conservative skeptics, who see Romney's health care reform law in Massachusetts -- including the requirement that individuals to purchase health insurance or face a penalty -- as a model for the president's reform. Romney's pledge to repeal the national law is a daily part of his stump speech, but takes on added meaning as the clock ticks down toward Thursday, the final day on which the court has scheduled the release of opinions.

    If the entire law (or just the individual mandate) is struck down, Romney's comments today suggest he will use the ruling to batter the president for wasting his time and political capital on a law that was ultimately wiped out, rather than focusing on the economy.

    Romney also used his rally here today to respond for the first time publicly to yesterday's Supreme Court ruling on Arizona's stiff immigration law, elements of which Romney praised during the primary campaign.

    The former Massachusetts governor described the court's involvement in the Arizona case as an example of a presidential failure in leadership, saying that had the president and a Democratic congress just passed immigration reform, immigration issues would not be the "muddle" they are now.

    "The Supreme Court had to step in because states had to step in," Romney said. "States looking to find a way to solve the problems he didn't address, tried to address it in their own ways, and now the Supreme Court's looked at it, and what we're left with is a bit of a muddle, but what we know is the president failed to lead."

    Romney also addressed the immigration case at a private fundraiser yesterday, in which he pledged to pass his own immigration reform plan -- which revolves around simplifying legal immigration and placing strict limits in place to prevent the hiring of illegal immigrants -- within one year of taking office.

    In neither appearance did he clearly state whether or not he agreed with the Supreme Court's ruling, focusing instead on each state's right to address immigration issues if the federal government fails to do so.

    Today's rally took place in the Roanoke media market, which NBC's First Read reported this morning is the second most active media market for political advertising in the country this week with Romney and his GOP allies narrowly outspending Obama and Democrats. With that focus in mind, the presumptive GOP nominee said today that he would take back the Old Dominion this election, after the once-reliably Republican state flipped into the Democratic column in 2008.

    "We're going to win in Virginia," Romney said as he wrapped up his remarks. "We're going to win in November."

    516 comments

    Obama's time in his first term would have been wasted if he had not tried to address health care reform. He also had to address all of the problems related to the recession. I like how Romney says "Obama's first term" as if he realizes Obama is likely to get a second term!

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  • 26
    Jun
    2012
    9:11am, EDT

    Romney: 'More latitude, not less'

    “Mitt Romney reacted to the Supreme Court's ruling on the Arizona immigration law by criticizing President Obama, blaming him for failing to lead on the issue,” USA Today notes. Romney said, "I believe each state has the duty -- and the right -- to secure our borders and preserve the rule of law, particularly when the federal government has failed to meet its responsibilities.”

    “Mitt Romney touched down briefly onto ground zero of the national immigration debate Monday, telling a crowd of Republican donors in Arizona that he was disappointed with the Supreme Court decision on their state’s immigration law but that President Barack Obama deserved blame for creating a legal muddle,” the Boston Herald writes. Romney said, "I would have preferred to see the Supreme Court give more latitude to the states, not less.”

    Back at it: Sarah Palin once again defended herself for claiming there are “death panels” in the health-care law. "Though I was called a liar for calling it like it is, many of these accusers finally saw that Obamacare did in fact create a panel of faceless bureaucrats who have the power to make life and death decisions about health care funding,” she wrote.

    7 comments

    I guess Sarah Palin or anyone in her family ever had a treatment rejected by an insurance company, a legitimate treatment recommended by doctors and specialists.

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  • 26
    Jun
    2012
    9:10am, EDT

    Veepstakes: Rice says 'no way' on VP

    CHRISTIE: Romney raises money in New Jersey with the Garden State governor tonight.

    JINDAL: Ramesh Ponnuru likes Bobby Jindal, per GOP 12.

    PORTMAN: Dick Cheney thought Rob Portman was tougher in debate prep than Joe Lieberman was in real life.

    RICE: Condi Rice again ruled out being veep despite her rousing speech in Utah before Romney donors, et al. "I didn't run for student council president; I don't see myself in any way in elective office. I love policy, I'm not particularly fond of politics,” she said on CBS, adding, “I'm saying there is no way I will do this, because it's really not me."

    Despite her disdain for politics, NBC’s Alex Moe reports on Rice’s speech at a fundraiser before a conservative women’s group on Capitol Hill, her first such Capitol Hill fundraising event.

    RUBIO: “Before the Supreme Court of the United States gutted much of the Arizona immigration law in a decision released on Monday, Rubio tackled the subject on an appearance on ‘Fox and Friends’ on Fox News earlier in the day,” Sunshine State News writes. Despite Romney having called the Arizona law a “model” for the nation, Rubio said, “I think Arizona-type laws are not the ideal. But we have to understand why states like Arizona did it and if we really don’t like Arizona laws then the federal government should do its job.”

    Still Rubio praised Romney on immigration, calling him “the most compelling voice in favor of legal immigration that we’ve seen in quite some time.”

    9 comments

    I think we all know the CIA and the military did THEIR job, during both the Bush and Obama administrations, of pursuing terrorists and eliminating threats, however, Condi Rice utterly failed at HER job, of creating diplomatic relationships to enable the US to lead the world. Name a Condi success in  …

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    Explore related topics: immigration, az, nj, supreme-court, first-read, veepstakes, decision-2012
  • 25
    Jun
    2012
    5:34pm, EDT

    Romney weathers growing media clamor for policy details

    By Michael O'Brien, msnbc.com
    Follow @mpoindc

     

    Mitt Romney's campaign is weathering increasing media scrutiny of the candidate's stubborn refusal to address major issues on anything but his own terms, threatening to transform a standoff with the media into an issue in itself in the campaign.

    Charles Dharapak / AP

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney sidestepped the Supreme Court decision itself in an initial written statement.

    The latest example: the presumptive Republican nominee's general refusal to opine directly on today's Supreme Court decision striking down many aspects of Arizona's tough immigration law, but upholding another controversial component.

    Romney's statement sidestepped the decision itself in an initial written statement, and turned its scrutiny toward President Obama.

    "Today's decision underscores the need for a president who will lead on this critical issue and work in a bipartisan fashion to pursue a national immigration strategy," Romney said. "I believe that each state has the duty -- and the right -- to secure our borders and preserve the rule of law, particularly when the federal government has failed to meet its responsibilities."

    Frustration between the Romney campaign and the traveling press pool reached a loggerhead on Monday during a gaggle with traveling press secretary Rick Gorka aboard the campaign's plane. Gorka doggedly refused to detail Romney's position in a 7-minute availability. A partial transcript, per NBC's Garrett Haake:

    Q: Is it fair to say that he has no opinion on the Arizona law?

    GORKA: Look, again, I'll say it again and again and again for you. The governor understands that states have their own right to craft policies to secure their own borders and to address illegal immigration.

    Q: You're not answering -- what does he think about the policy in Arizona? Is it fair to say he has no opinion? You're refusing to give us an answer.

    GORKA: Arizona, like many other states in this nation, take it upon themselves to craft policies for their own specific states. Governor has said repeatedly that states are a laboratory of  democracy, what one state crafts may not work in others but ultimately this, again, goes back to the president failing to deliver on his campaign promises. As candidate Obama, he said he would address immigration in the first year and hasn’t and instead put in a stopgap measure four and a half months before the election.

    It wasn't until an afternoon fundraiser in -- ironically -- Arizona that Romney addressed the decision more directly, and even still he did so in a circumspect manner.

    "I would have preferred to see the supreme Court give more latitude to the states not less. And there are states now under this decision have less authority, less latitude to enforce immigration laws," Romney said before declaring the immigration system a "muddle" for which Obama is to blame. He did not address whether Arizona's particular remedy was one he favored.

    The press has started to take note of Romney's availability. He routinely shuns questions on the ropeline after events about the issue du jour, and his press availabilities are few and far between. His interviews are generally scheduled with friendly outlets; the former Massachusetts governor has appeared on only one Sunday morning affairs show beside "Fox News Sunday."

    The presmptive Republican challenger to Obama has doggedly refused to offer specifics about Romney's approach toward some of the most consequential issues this year. As we wrote Thursday, Romney is almost exclusively focused on economy, arguably to his political expense if questions about his stances continue to linger.

    The Obama campaign is all too happy to encourage reporters' scrutiny of Romney, too. Senior campaign officials said Romney's singular quality is "evasiveness," and the president himself almost seemed to take a subtle shot at Romney on Monday in New Hampshire.

    "I will always tell you where I stand. I will always tell you what I believe," he said at a rally.

    Romney's previous political experience seems to inform his caution. He drew on his experience as a Senate candidate in 1994 in an interview with the conservative Weekly Standard, in which Romney said that going out on a limb and expressing his support for eliminating the Department of Education. Democrats subsequently turned that position against Romney.

    But the countervailing pressures reflect the types of campaigns both Obama and Romney wish to run. Team Obama wishes to turn the election into a choice, and Romney limits that when he doesn't speak to extraneous issues. Alternatively, Obama, as an incumbent, has an ample record from which Romney can cherrypick items to target.

    It's not as though the charge that Romney is somehow opaque is a new one; moreso, it can prove sometimes to be a smart electoral strategy. His opponents from the right and the left have been accusing Romney of being a political chameleon -- on abortion, gun rights, immigration, and so on -- for the better part of two decades. It's what made the Etch A Sketch flap this spring such a resonant attack: it played into a core vulnerability of Romney's that crosses party lines.

    The question for Romney has become whether this is a strategy he can ride all the way to election. If he and his campaign team stay so singularly focused on the economy and avoid entanglements over outside controversies, can they shrug off the media's protests?

    722 comments

    How about some policy details from Obama? LOL

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  • 25
    Jun
    2012
    5:22pm, EDT

    Romney says he wished court gave states 'latitude' on immigration

    By NBC's Garrett Haake
    Follow @GarrettNBCNews

     

    SCOTTSDALE, AZ -- Mitt Romney pledged to reform the nation's immigration laws in his first year as president while criticizing the Supreme Court's immigration decision on Monday in broad terms.

    Romney told donors in Arizona that he would have preferred that their state have more discretion in enforcing its immigration laws following a ruling by the high court throwing out much of Arizona's tough immigration law.

    "Now you probably heard today there was a Supreme Court decision relating to immigration and given the failure of the immigration policy in this country, I would have preferred to see the Supreme Court give more latitude to the states not less," Romney told some 200 donors seated in a hotel ballroom for his remarks. "And there are states now under this decision have less authority, less latitude to enforce immigration laws."

    Throughout the primary campaign, Romney defended the immigration law here, which called for local law enforcement to check immigration documents for anyone who they suspected may be in the country illegally (among other provisions), as the right course for a state to take when the federal government has failed to address immigration.

    The court invalidated much of the law except for one of its most controversial prongs: the requirement that authorities check the immigration status of individuals whom they detain and suspect of being in the U.S. illegally.

    Romney didn't address that provision directly, pivoting instead to accuse President Obama of a failure to lead on immigration and creating a "muddle" of the issue.

    "The president promised in his campaign that in his first year he would take on immigration and solve our immigration challenges, put in place a long term program to care for those who want to come here legally to deal with illegal immigration, to deal with securing our borders," Romney said. "All these things he was going to in his first year he had a Democrat House and a Democrat Senate but he didn’t do it. Isn’t it time for the American people to ask him why?"

    Romney has not remarked publicly on the Supreme Court case or immigration today, but in addressing the topic of reform with a group of donors here who collectively gave more than $2 million dollars to the campaign, Romney pledge to forgo stopgap measures and reform the U.S. immigration system within the first year of his administration.

    "In my first year I will make sure we actually do take on immigration, we secure our border, we make sure that we grow legal immigration in a way that provides people here with skill and expertise that we want," Romney said. "This is an issue that has to be tackled."

    431 comments

    WOW! How extremely erudite on Willard's part! lol "In my first year I will make sure we actually do take on immigration,

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