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  • 28
    Jun
    2012
    1:05pm, EDT

    Pelosi to hold party toasting Supreme Court decision

    By NBC's Luke Russert
    Follow @LukeRussert

     

    Updated 2:34 p.m. - Democrats are no doubt thrilled by Thursday's Supreme Court ruling upholding the president's health care reform law.

    So thrilled, that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is throwing a party for select Democratic staffers on Capitol Hill.

    NBC News obtained the following invitation sent out this morning a few hours after the decision:

    Nancy Pelosi
    Democratic Leader
    United States House of Representatives

    requests the pleasure of your company at a reception honoring today's victory on the Supreme Court decision to uphold the Affordable Care Act on Thursday, the twenty  eighth day of June, two thousand twelve at five o'clock in the afternoon

    Leader's Conference Room
    United States Capitol

    A Pelosi aide adds: "This reception will consist of Costco cake and brownie bites. No taxpayer dollars being spent, very informal." No alcohol will be served.

    114 comments

    LOL..... cool it down Nancy; you are going to make their heads explode.

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  • 28
    Jun
    2012
    12:38pm, EDT

    Romney: To get rid of 'ObamaCare,' must replace Obama

    By NBC's Garrett Haake

    WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney condemned the Supreme Court's ruling upholding the president's health-care reform law, and called for opponents of the law to support him if they wish to see the law repealed.

    "This is a time of choice for the American people," Romney said from a rooftop overlooking the Capitol. "Our mission is clear: If we want to get rid of 'ObamaCare,' we're going to have replace President Obama."

    The presumptive Republican nominee, who spoke for four minutes and did not take questions, said that while the Supreme Court chose not to strike down the law as unconstitutional, he will work to repeal the act which he considers bad law and bad policy.

    "As you might imagine, I disagree with the Supreme Court's decision," Romney said, "and I agree with the dissent. What the court did not do on its last day in session, I will do on my first day if elected president of the United States -- and that is I will act to repeal 'ObamaCare.'"

    Romney, who has long been haunted by his support for an individual mandate, similar to the one undergirding President Obama's reform package, did not mention the mandate specifically today and did not take questions. He instead focused his ire on the law's tax and deficit implications.

    "Obamacare raises taxes on the American people by approximately 500 billion dollars," Romney said. "'ObamaCare' cuts Medicare, cuts Medicare by approximately $500 billion, and even with those cuts and tax increases, 'ObamaCare' ads trillions to our deficits and to our national debts, and pushes those obligations on to coming generations."

    Romney also broadly laid out some of the "real reform" he would enact to replace the Affordable Care Act, calling for legislation to help keep health-care costs down, keep insured those with preexisting conditions who had been continuously covered, and support state-based reform efforts.

    267 comments

    Mittens, you looked like you had been sucker punched...

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  • 28
    Jun
    2012
    12:20pm, EDT

    Roberts goes the other way of court's conservatives

    By NBC's David Gregory

    ANALYSIS

    It’s interesting to note that two prominent conservative judges have upheld the individual mandate under the Commerce Clause -- Judge Silberman of the D.C. Circuit and Judge Sutton of the 6th Circuit.

    It’s interesting that Roberts went a way no other conservative judge from the lower courts had gone. He upheld it under Congress’ constitutional power to tax. Why does this matter? It suggests Roberts is guarding his legacy as the Chief Justice to show the Supreme Court has not become totally political and predictable. And that conservatives can be independent thinkers and not lock-step.

    A veteran, conservative Supreme Court lawyer said Roberts will likely be seen as being intimidated by the Left. He added that he believes it’s clear the opinion was initially a 5-4 decision to strike down the law under the Commerce Clause and that  Roberts flipped in the end. He points out that it's unusual for there to be a jointly written dissent among four justices. In the decision, Roberts appears to be saying to the Right, "Look, I’m with you on the Commerce Clause, but it can be upheld under taxing authority."

    In the end, there is also a big policy issue. The court said to Americans, you don't have to buy insurance under the mandate, but you have to pay the tax. What will Congress do next? That’s the big question – stay tuned.

    72 comments

    Are YOU kidding me? Isn't it bad enough you gave Tim Russert's coveted seat on MTP to this political hack? Now, you expect us to take Gotcha Gregory's analysis seriously? lmao! PUHLEESE! Gregory should stick with rapping with Karl Rove, at least that was credible! KICK IT! http://www.youtube.com/wa …

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  • 28
    Jun
    2012
    10:18am, EDT

    Supreme Court upholds health law

    By NBC's Pete Williams

    The Supreme Court has upheld the healthcare law, upholding the individual under the taxing authority of congress, not the commerce clause.

    It was indeed a 5-4 decision, but with Chief Justice Roberts voting with the liberal majority.

    Watch NBC's live analysis and coverage here.

    *** UPDATE *** Here's the court's entire opinion.

    *** UPDATE 2 *** President Obama is expected to speak from the White House at 12:15 pm ET.

    *** UPDATE 3 *** We expect to hear from Mitt Romney at 11:45 pm ET.

    216 comments

    What a great day to be a liberal! When I woke up this morning I had NO idea what the decision would be - my faith in the Supreme Court has been reformed! Now... President Obama can work on replacing the mandate with a public option in his next four years!

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  • 28
    Jun
    2012
    8:58am, EDT

    Programming notes

    *** Thursday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), a former state attorney general who’s argued before SCOTUS and one of only two current senators who clerked there, on expectations for today’s decision… Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO), the Capitol Hill liaison for the Romney campaign, on how Republicans may react to the different possible decisions… Marist’s Lee Miringoff with more on the new NBC/Marist polls of swing states North Carolina, New Hampshire and Michigan… NBC’s Pete Williams with the latest from the SCOTUS steps… NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell with more on today’s planned contempt vote on Atty. Gen. Holder in the House… More 2012 headlines and a SCOTUS countdown with Politico’s Lois Romano, Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons and former Bush 43 White House aide and current Indiana GOP spokesman Pete Seat.

    *** Thursday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: The program will have breaking news of the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision.

    *** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Ed Schultz, Melissa Harris Perry, RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer, Representative Chris Van Hollen and SCOTUSBlog’s Tom Goldstein.

    *** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include former Clinton WH Chief of Staff and Center for American Progress President John Podesta, former adviser to President George W. Bush Mark McKinnon, former Clinton WH Press Secretary Dee Dee Myers, former RNC Chair Michael Steele, the New York Times’ Jodi Kantor, Mother Jones Washington Bureau Chief David Corn, NBC News Chief Legal Correspondent Savannah Guthrie, and MSNBC’s Chris Matthews & Lawrence O’Donnell.

    *** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews NBC’s Pete Williams, NBC’s Chuck Todd, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA), Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA), Bioethicist Zeke Emanuel, and New York Magazine’s John Heilemann.

    *** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews MSNBC’s Chris Hayes, Michael Smerconish, Time’s Michael Crowley, Kenji Yoshino and Newsweek’s Zachary Karabell.

    3 comments

    Military Members, Veterans, Military retirees; note that Romney PROMOTED THE DRAFT during the Viet Nam War, then skipped out to France for extraordinary length of time when church missionary tours were limited. When Romney came home, he sided with his dad that the whole Viet Nam War was a scam and  …

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  • 28
    Jun
    2012
    8:57am, EDT

    SCOTUS: Anticipation...

    The New York Daily News: “It is D-Day for Obamacare — and hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers will lose benefits if the Supreme Court strikes down all of the divisive health care law.”

    AP: “Supreme Court health care ruling on tap: Who wins, who loses, who pays?”

    And the AP makes this point: “They've known the outcome for three months. Now it's time for the nine Supreme Court justices to share it with the world.”

    And another AP piece looks at how the states might deal with whatever the decision might be: “As the nation awaits the Supreme Court ruling on President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, states across the country are considering how they will respond to the historic decision. Some Democratic-led states vow to push ahead with various provisions no matter what happens. In some Republican territories, elected officials insist they will try to hold off on implementing the law, even if the court upholds it. And most states are bound to miss key deadlines if the law or even pieces of it survive.”

    5 comments

    Best President ever.

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  • 27
    Jun
    2012
    9:08am, EDT

    First Thoughts: Steady as she goes

    Despite another eventful month, Obama vs. Romney remains steady, per new NBC/WSJ poll… Obama 47%, Romney 44%... Both Obama and Romney struggled in June… Want to see the power of negative TV ads? Check out Romney’s standing in the swing states… A largely undefined Romney… And the NBC/WSJ poll plays the word association game… More polls are on the way! NBC/WSJ/Telemundo Latino oversample comes out later this afternoon, and we’ll unveil new NBC-Marist state polls tomorrow morning… Pay attention to the natural disasters in CO and FL… Hatch and Rangel cruise to victory… And problems with the “Fast and Furious” story?

    By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

    Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

    President Barack Obama speaks at Obama Victory Fund concert in Miami, Florida, on June 26, 2012.

    *** Steady as she goes: Remember when we wrote earlier this week that, despite everything that has happened in the past month, the presidential contest has remained remarkably stable? Well, the new numbers from our new NBC/WSJ poll back up that assertion. After that disappointing May jobs report, the Wisconsin recall, more uncertainty in Europe, and that recent immigration announcement, President Obama and Mitt Romney are still locked in a tight contest among registered voters, with Obama at 47% and Romney at 44%. That's essentially unchanged from May, when the margin was four points, 47%-43%. But despite the stability on the surface, there are some fascinating things going on when you look inside the numbers. Obama is ahead among African Americans (92%-1%), women (52%-39%), Latinos (66-26%), voters ages 18-29 (52%-35%) and independents (40%-36%). Romney leads among Tea Party supporters (94%-1%), whites (53%-38%), white independents (46-32%), white women (50-41%) and men (48%-43%). And the two are running even among seniors, Midwest residents, and high-interest voters.

    The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd breaks down the latest NBC News/WSJ poll.

    *** Both Obama and Romney struggled in June: So how do we explain this stability? The other poll results suggest that BOTH Obama and Romney have struggled in the past month. For Obama, those disapproving of his handling of the economy rose a point to 53%; those believing the country is on the wrong track increased three points to 61%; and his overall approval rating is 47% approve/48% disapprove -- the first time it has been upside down this year. Bottom line: There is plenty of economic pessimism, and that isn't good news for the incumbent president. In the poll, 49% say what they have seen, read, and heard about the country’s economy has made them less pessimistic, versus 43% who are more optimistic. (However, in May, it was 53% less pessimistic/42% more optimistic.)

    *** Want to see the power of negative TV ads? But the NBC/WSJ poll also finds that Romney had a pretty rough month, too, especially in the swing states where all the advertising is going on. Among the voters in our poll living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Obama’s lead over Romney increases to 50%-42%. Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped: A month ago, Romney’s fav/unfav score stood at 34%/38% nationally and 36%-36% in these 12 swing states. But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33%-39% (that 39% unfav is tied with his all-time high) and 30%-41% in the swing states.  What’s more, the poll shows that attitudes about Romney’s business background also are more unfavorable in these battlegrounds. Among swing-state respondents, 18% say what they’ve seen and heard about Romney’s business record gives them a more POSITIVE opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33% who say it’s more NEGATIVE. That’s compared to the national 23%-to-28% margin on this question. The obvious conclusion here is that the negative TV ads pummeling Romney in the battleground states -- like here and here and here -- are having an impact.

    *** An undefined Romney: Why could the negative TV ads have a bigger impact -- at least for now -- on Romney than Obama? Here’s one explanation: Romney remains largely undefined, according to our poll. Although it shows that only 6% of respondents don’t know who Romney is, just 20% say they “know a lot” about him, versus 43% who say the same about Obama. (To be sure, Romney’s percentage here is comparable to Obama’s when he was running for president at this same point in 2008.) In addition, a majority of Romney supporters – 58% – say their vote is more AGAINST Obama than FOR Romney. That’s compared to a whopping 72% of Obama supporters who say their vote is more FOR Obama than AGAINST Romney. “[Romney’s] a known name but an unknown person,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D). “They just haven’t related to him.”

    *** The word association game: Our NBC/WSJ pollsters also did something else that’s unique to our survey: They asked respondents to say the first thing that came to their mind when thinking about the two presidential candidates. For Romney, 43% of the answers were negative. The top examples: wealthy/favor the wealthy (12%), bad/disaster (7%), out of touch (7%) and women’s rights/abortion stance (5%). By contrast, 40% of the answers about him were positive, such as good businessman (10%), change (10%), conservative/for smaller government (7%) and improve economy (5%). For Obama, 52% of the open-ended answers for him were negative: economy (15%), lack of experience/incompetent (9%), Obamacare (8%), high unemployment (6%) and broken promises (6%). Another 44% of the answers were positive: good leader/doing good job (10%), for the people (6%), health-care reform (5%) and fair/honest (5%). Be sure to check out the word clouds of these responses at the end of this article.

    *** Other poll odds and ends: George W. Bush’s fav/unfav in the poll is 36%-45% (which isn’t too far off Romney’s 33%-39%)… Bain Capital’s fav/unfav is 8%-20%, which is better than Solyndra’s, 2%-24%... And 67% correctly identified Romney’s Mormon faith, but only 43% correctly identified Obama’s (versus 8% who ID’ed him as a Muslim and 1% who I.D’ed Obama as a Mormon). 

    *** More polls are on the way! By the way, these aren't the only other poll numbers you'll see from us in the next 24 hours. Later today, we'll unveil our NBC/WSJ/Telemundo oversample of Latino respondents to get a better look at this pivotal demographic group, especially when it comes to immigration. And tomorrow morning, we'll release new NBC-Marist polls of Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. And speaking of state polls, Quinnipiac shows Obama leading Romney in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

    *** Pay attention to what’s going on in Colorado and Florida: A quick note about the natural disasters currently taking place in Colorado and Florida, which are two battleground states: Don’t lose sight of them. These things can spiral quickly and have political repercussions.

    *** On the trail: Romney raises money in New York City and Washington, DC before holding a campaign event in Sterling, VA at 5:00 pm ET… Biden campaigns in Dubuque, IA at 11:00 am ET… And NBC’s Carrie Dann confirms an AP report that Obama will embark on a bus tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio July 5-6.

    *** Hatch and Rangel cruise to victory: GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch and Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel both won their primaries last night. The Washington Post: “Sen. Orrin G. Hatch and Rep. Charles B. Rangel, two longtime lawmakers who saw their careers imperiled by the shifting political winds, cruised to primary victories Tuesday night despite stiff challenges from younger upstarts. Hatch, a conservative Utah Republican, and Rangel, a liberal New York Democrat, have nearly eight decades of incumbency between them. But both lawmakers faced their toughest primary challenges ever this year, becoming the latest examples of longtime politicians struggling to adjust to a new political reality.” But while Hatch and Rangel won, another incumbent -- Oklahoma Rep. John Sullivan -- lost his GOP primary last night.

    *** Problems with the “Fast and Furious” story? And with the House’s contempt vote against U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder set for tomorrow (same day as the SCOTUS decision on health care), an investigation by Fortune magazine reveals that the ATF never intentionally allowed the “Fast and Furious” guns to fall in the hands of a Mexican cartel, and it questions the credibility of the original whistleblower. “Nobody disputes that suspected straw purchasers under surveillance by the ATF repeatedly bought guns that eventually fell into criminal hands. Issa and others charge that the ATF intentionally allowed guns to walk as an operational tactic. But five law-enforcement agents directly involved in Fast and Furious tell Fortune that the ATF had no such tactic. They insist they never purposefully allowed guns to be illegally trafficked. Just the opposite: They say they seized weapons whenever they could but were hamstrung by prosecutors and weak laws, which stymied them at every turn. Indeed, a six-month Fortune investigation reveals that the public case alleging that Dave Voth and his colleagues walked guns is replete with distortions, errors, partial truths, and even some outright lies.”

    Countdown to GOP convention: 61 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 68 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 132 days

    Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
    Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
    Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

    1077 comments

    If you aren't convinced yet these new Voter ID laws are nothing more than another form of voter suppression this will certainly clear up any confusion you might have had;

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  • 27
    Jun
    2012
    9:07am, EDT

    Programming notes

    *** Wednesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) on Holder, health care and more… Pollsters Fred Yang and Bill McInturff with a deep dive into the new NBC/WSJ numbers… NBC’s Luke Russert with the latest from Capitol Hill… More campaign trail news with the Washington Post’s David Nakamura and Ruth Marcus along with former Bush 43 White House Political Director Sara Taylor Fagen.

    *** Wednesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), David Corn and Josh Marshall, Matthew Miller/Former Spokesperson for Eric Holder, Steve Elmendorf and Joe Watkins, Professor Joshua Hawley/Former clerk for Chief Justice John Roberts.

    *** Wednesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up:

    *** Wednesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include New York Times Magazine Editor Hugo Lindgren, Time’s Rana Foroohar, MSNBC’s “The Cycle” Co-host S.E. Cupp, MSNBC’s Jimmy Williams, Foreign Policy Editor in Chief Susan Glasser, and NBC’s Luke Russert

    *** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews NBC’s Chuck Todd, Pete Williams, Kelly O’Donnell and Luke Russert; the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza and Rajiv Chandrasekaran; GOP economist Doug Holtz-Eakin, Families USA Executive Director Ron Pollack; and MEDORA Works Directors Davy Rothbart and Andrea Cohn.

    *** Wednesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews the Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty, Michael Smerconish, Rep. Trey Gowdy,  Rep. Peter Welch, and Magic Johnson.

    10 comments

    I guess Fisty wants illegal voters. So she is endorsing voter fraud. Typical libby if you can't win legally, cheat. Have as many dead people, illegal immigrants, dogs, cats, pigs, etc. vote. Anyone who outright endorses voter fraud should be banned.

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  • 27
    Jun
    2012
    9:05am, EDT

    Romney: Prepared for the SCOTUS decision

    “The Supreme Court’s ruling on President Obama’s health care law may be two days away, but Mitt Romney on Tuesday offered a preview of how he’ll respond,” the Boston Globe writes. “If the law is rejected, Romney plans to argue that Obama wasted both his time, and the time of the American people, by pursuing a policy that doesn’t pass constitutional muster. If the law is upheld, Romney would argue that opponents need to elect him so that he can overturn it himself.”

    32 comments

    As always there are ways to look at any decision, if they overturn the law then perhaps they are elite idiots who really do not care about the working middle class of this nation? And if they uphold it perhaps they are elite idiots who have finally decided to face their conscious? Sorry Mitt, you a …

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  • 26
    Jun
    2012
    1:49pm, EDT

    Romney: If health reform is stricken, Obama's first term 'wasted'

    Speaking in Virginia, Mitt Romney offered his first public response the Supreme Court decision on Arizona's immigration law saying the Court had to weigh in because President Obama "failed to lead."

    By NBC's Garrett Haake
    Follow @GarrettNBCNews

     

    SALEM, VA -- Mitt Romney said Tuesday that President Obama will have "wasted" much of his first term if the Supreme Court decides Thursday that the president's health reform law is unconstitutional.

    Amid a flurry of politically important rulings by the high court this week -- including yesterday's immigration decision -- Romney positioned himself in anticipation of Thursday's scheduled verdict on "ObamaCare."

    "If Obamacare is not deemed constitutional, then the first three and a half years of this president's term will have been wasted on something that has not helped the American people," Romney told a crowd of some 1,500 supporters here today. "If it is deemed to stand, then I'll tell you one thing. Then we'll have to have a president, and I'm that one, that's gonna get rid of Obamacare. We're gonna stop it on day one."

    Romney has long been forced to wrestle with conservative skeptics, who see Romney's health care reform law in Massachusetts -- including the requirement that individuals to purchase health insurance or face a penalty -- as a model for the president's reform. Romney's pledge to repeal the national law is a daily part of his stump speech, but takes on added meaning as the clock ticks down toward Thursday, the final day on which the court has scheduled the release of opinions.

    If the entire law (or just the individual mandate) is struck down, Romney's comments today suggest he will use the ruling to batter the president for wasting his time and political capital on a law that was ultimately wiped out, rather than focusing on the economy.

    Romney also used his rally here today to respond for the first time publicly to yesterday's Supreme Court ruling on Arizona's stiff immigration law, elements of which Romney praised during the primary campaign.

    The former Massachusetts governor described the court's involvement in the Arizona case as an example of a presidential failure in leadership, saying that had the president and a Democratic congress just passed immigration reform, immigration issues would not be the "muddle" they are now.

    "The Supreme Court had to step in because states had to step in," Romney said. "States looking to find a way to solve the problems he didn't address, tried to address it in their own ways, and now the Supreme Court's looked at it, and what we're left with is a bit of a muddle, but what we know is the president failed to lead."

    Romney also addressed the immigration case at a private fundraiser yesterday, in which he pledged to pass his own immigration reform plan -- which revolves around simplifying legal immigration and placing strict limits in place to prevent the hiring of illegal immigrants -- within one year of taking office.

    In neither appearance did he clearly state whether or not he agreed with the Supreme Court's ruling, focusing instead on each state's right to address immigration issues if the federal government fails to do so.

    Today's rally took place in the Roanoke media market, which NBC's First Read reported this morning is the second most active media market for political advertising in the country this week with Romney and his GOP allies narrowly outspending Obama and Democrats. With that focus in mind, the presumptive GOP nominee said today that he would take back the Old Dominion this election, after the once-reliably Republican state flipped into the Democratic column in 2008.

    "We're going to win in Virginia," Romney said as he wrapped up his remarks. "We're going to win in November."

    516 comments

    Obama's time in his first term would have been wasted if he had not tried to address health care reform. He also had to address all of the problems related to the recession. I like how Romney says "Obama's first term" as if he realizes Obama is likely to get a second term!

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  • 26
    Jun
    2012
    1:00pm, EDT

    NBC/WSJ poll: More would be pleased if health law ruled unconstitutional

    By NBC's Mark Murray

    With the U.S. Supreme Court set to decide on President Obama's health-care law on Thursday, more Americans say they would be pleased if the law is ruled unconstitutional than constitutional, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

    In the survey, 37 percent say they would be pleased if the Supreme Court finds the law unconstitutional, versus 22 percent who say they would be disappointed with that outcome.

    Yuri Gripas / Reuters

    A group of doctors protest against individual mandate in President Obama's health care reform in front of U.S. Supreme Court in Washington June 25.

    On the flip side, 28 percent say they would be pleased if the court rules the law is constitutional, compared with 35 percent who say they would be disappointed.

    But pluralities on both questions maintain they would have mixed feelings with either outcome, suggesting that opinion could change depending on how the Supreme Court ultimately decides on Thursday.

    What's more, if the law's individual mandate is found to be unconstitutional, 25 percent say that would hurt them and their families; 18 percent say it would help; and 55 percent say it wouldn't make a difference.

    Overall, 35 percent think the health-care law is a good idea, versus 41 percent who believe it's a bad idea -- numbers that have been essentially unchanged in the survey since it was signed into law in March 2010.

    The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted June 20-24 of 1,000 adults, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released today at 6:30 p.m.ET.

    2565 comments

    We shall see... On the other hand, 77% of Americans think we need some sort of HCR! Maybe now would be a good time for the GNOP to tell us what their plan contains on replacing it with - other then to DIE QUICKLY! American exceptional-ism my ass!

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  • 25
    Jun
    2012
    9:08am, EDT

    First Thoughts: All eyes on the Supreme Court

    All eyes on SCOTUS: We could get a health-care decision (and immigration one, too) as early as today and as late as Thursday… How crazy a month -- and yet how stable -- it’s been…. Bain gets more scrutiny, and how does Romney fix it?... Wrapping up Romney’s weekend getaway in Utah… And Obama stumps in New Hampshire at 2:00 pm ET, while Romney raises money in Scottsdale, AZ.

    By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

    Saul Loeb / AFP - Getty Images

    The Supreme Court is seen in Washington, DC, June 18, 2012. The highest court in the US is set to rule within days on the constitutionality of US President Barack Obama's health care reforms.

    *** All eyes on SCOTUS: As early as today and as late as Thursday, the U.S. Supreme Court will issue its ruling on the federal health-care law. And there are essentially three outcomes: 1) everything gets upheld, 2) everything gets struck down, or 3) something in between. But the politics -- especially as it relates to November -- aren’t as clear cut. But our guess is that a full uphold or a full repeal energizes the winning side and knocks the losers for an unexpected loop. (Then again, you could argue that the losing side gets to fire up its base, but that is still some bitter lemonade out of those lemons.) What is clear is that news organizations have emptied their health-care files. Over the weekend, the New York Times wrote whether the health-care law’s supporters ignored concerns about its constitutionality, and it also noted how the Obama White House is bracing for the decision, even an unfavorable one. And the Washington Post wondered if the White House made some political and legal miscalculations with the Supreme Court case. All three articles suggested the Conventional Wisdom that the Supreme Court could very well overturn the law. But no one knows how the court will rule.

    The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd talks about the monumental health care rulings on health care and immigration that will be decided this week.

    *** Immigration decision is coming, too: Don’t forget: We’ll also get the court’s decision on Arizona’s immigration law this week. By the way, if you are a Republican strategist involved in a competitive election, you are hoping the Arizona decision gets released WITH health care. If it’s immigration today and health care on Thursday, then the GOP has to deal with another three days of the immigration issue in the news, and we’ve yet to see how any day that has immigration in the news is a good one for Republicans in November.

    *** One crazy month: So when you step back and think about it, June has been a crazy month. It started with the monthly jobs report showing that just 69,000 jobs were created in May; then came the drumbeat of bad and uncertain news on the economy, both domestically and in Europe; then there was Wisconsin; then President Obama’s immigration announcement; and now we’re about to get the big SCOTUS health-care ruling (as well as the immigration one). Yet despite it all, the Obama-Romney race has remained incredibly stable. Look no farther than the recent Pew poll and AP national poll showing Obama narrowly leading Romney (50%-46% and 47%-44%, respectively) -- which is essentially where this race was after the former Massachusetts governor became the presumptive GOP nominee back in April. What explains this stability, even if much of the media perception has been that Romney has the momentum while Obama is struggling? For starters, you could argue that given this nation’s political polarization, this tight race has always been locked in and perhaps is even more locked in than anyone appreciates. Then there’s the “demographics is destiny” argument that feeds the polarization; and finally, don’t overlook the Obama campaign’s heavy anti-Romney TV blitz have contributed to the stability. Bottom line: It’s probably a little of all three.

    *** We’re still in the 2nd quarter: Regardless, it’s important to note that we haven’t reached halftime in this general election contest. We always knew there would be FOUR big moments in this race after Romney became the presumptive nominee, outside any unforeseen event: 1) the SCOTUS health-care decision, 2) the VP selection, 3) the convention speeches, and 4) the debates. And we’re only about to cross off No. 1 on this list. We still have a long way to go…

    *** Bain gets more scrutiny: After the Washington Post reported on Friday that Bain Capital, under Mitt Romney’s leadership, invested in firms that outsourced jobs to China and India, other news organizations piled on Bain. Over the weekend, the New York Times wrote that even when Bain-controlled companies filed for bankruptcy and shed jobs, Bain and its executives still made money. “Bain structured deals so that it was difficult for the firm and its executives to ever really lose, even if practically everyone else involved with the company that Bain owned did, including its employees, creditors and even, at times, investors in Bain’s funds.” Also, the Boston Globe noted how Romney and Bain once partnered with famed junk-bond king Michael Milken in a leveraged buyout. “It showed how he pivoted from being a relatively cautious investor to risking his reputation for a big payoff. It is one that Romney has rarely, if ever, mentioned in his two bids for the presidency, perhaps because the Houston-based department store chain that Bain assembled later went into bankruptcy.” Finally, the pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action is up with another TV ad hitting Romney on Bain. 

    *** Romney has more of a Bain problem than the Acela Corridor realizes: Ever since the Obama campaign began its Bain hit, there has been near universal agreement among elites that the hits were either “not working,” or “unfair,” or both. But as we’ve said before and we’ll say again: The Bain attacks aren’t meant to sway folks in NY and DC, but folks in three crucial battleground states: Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The whole point of this campaign by the Obama folks is to paint Romney as an out-of-touch Wall Street CEO or worse, one of the Bobs from “Office Space. And while the Romney campaign has comforted itself with the criticism of the Obama attacks by other Democrats (Booker, Rendell etc.), the campaign has done little to fix the larger image issue. So far, the Romney campaign has made this argument: Any attack on Bain is an attack on America’s free enterprise system. But how does it explain that Bain and its partners often made money, even if the firms they took over went belly up? And how do they now explain this Milken association? Does it keep using the “free enterprise” line? Or does it need to do something else?

    *** Romney’s weekend getaway: Here’s a thought exercise: Imagine if Obama had held a big retreat -- say in Santa Fe, NM -- with all of his big bundlers. The Hollywood types. The LGBT donors. The NBA stars. Would it have received more coverage than Romney’s retreat with his big bundlers in Utah over the weekend? Perhaps the most newsworthy part of the weekend: the attendance of the Super PAC-men. Not only was Karl Rove there (remember that he helped found American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS), but also spotted in the hotel lobby there was Restore Our Future’s Charlie Spies. Spies confirmed to NBC’s Garrett Haake that he was in the hotel lobby, but says he was not officially "attending" the confab, he was just there. Spies’ wife also works for the campaign. The Romney campaign issued this statement: "ROF staff were not invited, nor did they attend or participate in the retreat. As with members of the media, they may have been in public spaces, and the campaign did not control that. We are fully aware of the law and comply with it completely." This just shows you the absurdity of the campaign-finance laws right now. The campaigns and Super PACs can’t coordinate, but they can be in “public spaces” together; yes that’s the law. Remember, it’s the “letter” of the law that matters not the spirit.  

    *** On the trail: Obama gives a speech in Durham, NH at 2:00 pm ET and later hits a fundraiser in Boston… Per guidance from the campaign, Obama “will offer Granite State voters the choice to break the stalemate between two economic visions on how to grow to the economy -- one that builds the economy from the middle class out, and the other from the top down.”… And Romney today raises money in Scottsdale, AZ.

    Countdown to GOP convention: 63 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 70 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 134 days

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