Under the gun: This week’s vote on Manchin-Toomey background check amendment will determine if gun-control advocates can get meaningful reform through the Senate… Crack that whip: As things stand right now, Manchin-Toomey could get a MAXIMUM of 64 votes, per NBC’s Kasie Hunt… Rubio goes all-in on immigration reform… Gosnell case gets more and more attention… Santorum cancels Iowa trip due to illness… And more numbers from our NBC/WSJ poll.

Joe Raedle / Getty Images

As the Senate takes up gun legislation in Washington, DC , Cristiana Verro browses for guns on sale at the National Armory gun store on April 11, 2013 in Pompano Beach, Fla.

*** Under the gun: For gun-control advocates, this week’s vote on the Manchin-Toomey compromise on background checks will be the most important in the entire gun debate so far, because it will determine if they have a chance at passing meaningful reform through the Senate. So in advance of this vote, which will take place on either Tuesday or Wednesday, supporters are charging ahead. Per NBC’s Kasie Hunt, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) pressed colleagues over the weekend to support the background-check compromise, and they both plan to spend hours on the Senate floor this afternoon making speeches and answering colleagues’ questions. Also, President Obama sits down for an interview with NBC’s Savannah Guthrie to talk guns and other issues. And tomorrow, Hunt adds, former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) will be on the Hill to press her colleagues to vote for the background check compromise. One more thing to note about this week: Tuesday will be the sixth anniversary of the tragic shooting at Virginia Tech.

*** Crack that whip: But even if the Manchin-Toomey amendment on background checks passes (it needs 60 votes), and if there are no so-called “poison pill” amendments added, there’s still an important obstacle for reformers to overcome: The House of Representatives. As we’ve seen the past -- with the fiscal-cliff deal and Hurricane Sandy relief -- the House is willing to bring legislation to the floor that isn’t supported by a “majority of the majority” if it has garnered 70 or more votes in the Senate. And right now, the Manchin-Toomey measure is nowhere close to getting that number. Per NBC’s Hunt, 53 senators support it, 36 currently oppose it, and 11 are unknown. That means, as things stand right now, the MAXIMUM support the amendment could get is 64 votes -- not near a threshold that would pressure Speaker Boehner. More from Hunt’s whip count: The Republicans in favor: Toomey, Mark Kirk, Susan Collins, and John McCain (who hasn’t issued a definitive statement but has come very close). The Democrats against: Mark Begich and Mark Pryor (who hasn’t issued a definitive statement but has come very close). Democrats who could vote “no”: Max Baucus, Kay Hagan, Heidi Heitkamp, and Mary Landrieu. The Republicans who could vote “yes”: Jeff Flake, Kelly Ayotte, Dean Heller, John Hoeven, Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss. (On MSNBC, Isakson said it's "doubtful" he'll support it, but left the door open.) And here’s one question mark: Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg is ill, and leadership aides doubt he will be well enough to participate.

*** Rubio goes all-in on immigration reform: Yet unlike on guns, the Gang of Eight immigration proposal -- expected to be unveiled on Tuesday -- appears headed to getting 70-plus Senate votes. Why? Supporters can thank Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who appeared on all the Sunday shows to sell the immigration reform plan, especially to conservatives. “Our legal immigration system is broken. It's not good for anybody, the way it works right now,” Rubio said on “Meet the Press” yesterday. “And this bill modernizes it in a way that's going to get broad-based support… [W]hat it does is it creates a way for us to address the millions of people that are here undocumented in a way that's compassionate, but also, in a way that's responsible.” Over the past several weeks, we’ve wondered if Rubio -- due to some of his statements -- was 100% committed to immigration reform or if he was looking for a way out. But after his Sunday show blitz, it’s pretty clear that Rubio is all-in, as Politico recently put it. There’s not an exit ramp for him anymore. And remember the role Rubio is set to play: He’s not charged with getting it passed the Senate; he’s charged with getting the bill a BIG number in the Senate (by lobbying and giving cover for conservatives), because that’s the key to unlocking the House.

*** Gosnell case gets more and more attention: Outside of Washington, the story about Kermit Gosnell, an abortion doctor facing charges in the deaths of a patient and seven babies allegedly born alive, is gaining more and more attention. And the story has become a rallying cry for an anti-abortion community who believes that this case should receive the same amount of attention that the shootings in Newtown, CT did. And, like Newtown, they believe it should start a larger conversation about when abortion should be legal.  Abortion-rights supporters counter that the story isn’t about public policy; rather, it’s about an alleged butcher who ran an illegal abortion clinic and is now being prosecuted. At a minimum, this story is serving as a rallying cry for the anti-abortion community and could end up setting up some contentious battles in state legislatures as some use the trial as the impetus to try and change some abortion laws. 

*** Santorum cancels Iowa events due to illness: Former Pennsylvania Sen. and presidential candidate Rick Santorum was supposed to deliver remarks at two different events in Iowa today, but he canceled due to an illness. "While traveling in South Carolina on Saturday, Rick Santorum became ill and was admitted to the hospital for a gastro-intestinal illness and dehydration,” Santorum spokeswoman Virginia Davis said. “He is feeling better today but remains in the hospital and is unable to travel to Iowa on Monday, April 15 for previously scheduled events. He is expected to resume a full schedule later this week and looks forward to returning to Iowa soon."

*** “Lean In” into these numbers: In addition to the numbers on immigration, guns, and gay rights, our most recent NBC/WSJ poll measured women’s perceptions about how they are treated in the workplace and at home. The conclusion from the numbers: These perceptions haven’t changed much in the past decade-plus. According to the poll, 46% of women said they had personally experienced discrimination because they are a woman, and that percentage was virtually unchanged from the last time the poll asked this question in 2000. (So in a half a generation, following the hiring of more women CEOs, more women getting into politics, nothing’s changed on the discrimination front. That’s NOT insignificant, folks.) In addition, more than eight-in-10 women agreed with the statement that they are paid less than men (pretty much unchanged from 1997), and two-thirds agreed that most women can’t “have it all” without making a lot of sacrifices (down from more than three-quarters who said this in ’97).

*** Other noteworthy nuggets from our NBC/WSJ poll: 58% of people who know a gay or lesbian person believe gay people are born gay (compared with 50% of all respondents in the poll who say gay people are born that way), while just 39% of those who do NOT know a gay person agree… Among Latinos ages 40 and older, Marco Rubio has a 32%-13% fav/unfav rating, but among those younger than 40, his fav/unfav is 13%-12%... And get this: Just 3% of all Americans believe both the Democratic and Republican parties are looking out for the middle class.

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Republicans as the party of “Family Ties” and Democrats as the party of “Modern Family”… As GOP leaders try to move the party on some social issues, the rank-and-file isn’t moving yet… The Gang of 16 GOP senators who voted against yesterday’s filibuster on guns… All the moving parts in the gun debate… Gang of Eight immigration proposal expected on Tuesday… Rubio to appear on “Meet the Press”… McConnell couldn’t have asked for a better outcome… And measuring the 2016ers in our NBC/WSJ poll.

*** “Family Ties” vs. “Modern Family”: If you want to know why Republicans are from Mars and Democrats are from Venus, or why Republicans are the “Family Ties” party and Democrats are the “Modern Family” party, just look at our NBC/WSJ poll. Fourteen years ago, back in 1999, the poll asked this question: What should be a more important goal for society -- promoting greater respect for traditional values, or encouraging greater tolerance? An overwhelming majority of Republicans (by 76%-16%), a majority of independents (54%-31%), and a plurality of Democrats (49%-41%) all picked traditional values. But when we asked that question again in our new NBC/WSJ poll, there was a significant change: Almost two-thirds of Democrats picked tolerance (64%-31%), and independents moved, too (narrowly siding with traditional values, 48%-43%). But the Republican percentage remained virtually the same from 1999 (77%-18%). This movement by Democrats and the non-movement by Republicans might very well represent the biggest difference between the two political parties, especially when it comes to social issues and values.

*** As GOP leaders try to move the party, rank-and-file isn’t moving: Our new NBC/WSJ poll numbers on gay marriage also highlight this movement-vs.-non-movement difference between the parties. Four years ago, back in 2009, 55% of Democrats, 37% of independents, and 22% of Republicans said they supported gay marriage. Now? These are the percentages: Democrats 73% (an 18-point increase), independents 54% (17 points), and 27% of Republicans (5 points). In fact, GOP opposition to gay marriage slightly increased, albeit within the margin of error, from our Dec. 2012 to our April 2013 poll. So politically, while Republican leaders are trying to move on social issues -- see the RNC report as it relates to gay rights, Bobby Jindal earlier on contraception, and even Paul Ryan last night saying that the GOP must find common ground on abortion rights -- the rank-and-file of the party isn’t ready to move. Just look at the resolution opposing same-sex marriage that the RNC is expected to consider today. Of course, the one BIG exception to this immigration reform.

*** The Gang of 16: Yesterday, by a 68-31 vote, a group of bipartisan senators defeated a GOP filibuster on the Democratic-backed gun-control measure, so now Senate debate begins on the legislation. Sixteen GOP senators voted against the filibuster, while two Democrats (Mark Begich and Mark Pryor, both up for re-election next year in red states) voted for it. But we want to focus on the 16 GOP senators for a second, because they tell a larger story beyond guns. Here are the 16 who voted for cloture: Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Richard Burr (R-NC), Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Tom Coburn (R-OK), Susan Collins (R-ME), Bob Corker (R-TN), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Dean Heller (R-NV), John Hoeven (R-ND), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Mark Kirk (R-IL), John McCain (R-AZ), Pat Toomey (R-PA), and Roger Wicker (R-MS). If you’re the White House, these are the universe of 16 GOP senators willing to work you – on the budget, immigration, and guns. Of course, there’s one VERY BIG exception: Marco Rubio, who’s working on the bipartisan immigration proposal, voted FOR the filibuster.  But for the most part, these 16 senators have been ones most open to going to a dinner with the president (in fact, we think all but three have been to a dinner with him already), and they all seem to playing a part in one of the compromise working groups, either immigration, the budget or guns. File away this list, you’ll need it quite a bit if you are covering Congress.

*** All the moving parts in the gun debate: There are several other moving parts in the debate over guns. As NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports, the next Senate vote will come on Tuesday, with a procedural vote (requiring 60 to pass) on the Manchin-Toomey compromise on background checks… In addition, per NBC’s Kasie Hunt, former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) will lobby senators who might be on the fence on the background checks. And today, her organization begins robo-calls thanking Sens. Joe Manchin and Pat Toomey for their work on background checks. (An example: “Hi, I'm Mark Kelly -- combat veteran, astronaut, and most importantly, husband to my brave wife Gabrielle Giffords. I'm calling to thank your senator, Pat Toomey, for working across party lines to sponsor critical legislation to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally ill by expanding background checks.”)… Also, NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s Mayors Against Illegal Guns is airing a new TV ad (featuring a Newtown, CT parent) urging passage of background checks.

*** Gang of Eight appears likely to unveil immigration proposal on Tuesday: Meanwhile, on the issue of immigration, NBC’s Carrie Dann and NBC Latino's Sandra Lilley report that Tuesday appears to be the day for the formal unveiling of comprehensive immigration reform from the Gang of Eight. (That said, aides add the caveat that the legislation must be reviewed before a final unveiling is ready.) It's not clear yet what form that presentation will take and how the legislative language will be available when it’s public. At this point, aides are down to the issue of drafting the legislation. Previously, big hang-ups required the lawmakers involved to hash them out personally; those are resolved and we’re at the staff level now. Meanwhile, the New York Times has a readout of some of the details of the bill, including a heavy focus on merit-based visas for both high- and low- skilled workers.

*** Rubio to appear on “Meet the Press”: Speaking of the Gang of Eight, one of its members -- Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) -- will appear on “Meet the Press” this Sunday, along with Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Mike Lee (R-UT). The expectation is that Rubio is, essentially, previewing what the Gang of Eight is going to propose.

*** McConnell couldn’t have asked for a better outcome: After yesterday’s developments in the Mitch McConnell/Ashley Judd/possible bugging story in Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader McConnell couldn’t have asked for a better outcome. As one of us wrote yesterday, “A local liberal group has become the target of scrutiny in a probe into the surreptitious recording published earlier this week capturing a campaign strategy session with Sen. Mitch McConnell’s re-election team. A local Democratic Party official told NBC News Thursday that two members of the activist group Progress Kentucky claimed that they were responsible for a recording published this week on the website of the progressive magazine Mother Jones.” When McConnell originally accused Progress Kentucky on Wednesday, he had no evidence to back it up; in fact, his office later walked back the accusation. But now it appears that he could very well be correct. More importantly, the story has become all about process (who recorded it, how was it done?) and not about the substance (the McConnell camp’s tough talk about Ashley Judd). And it really does put the Democrats in a tougher position in this race, simply because as tough of a campaigner as McConnell is, he can claim he’s playing by the rules while his opponents are not.

*** Measuring the 2016ers: Finally, in our weekly look at the emerging 2016 presidential race, it’s worth noting that we have now measured seven different potential candidates in our NBC/WSJ poll since the 2012 election -- four Republicans (Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie), two Democrats (Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden), and one independent (Michael Bloomberg). Some of the findings, per NBC’s Sarah Blackwill: Ryan (with a 49-point net positive rating) narrowly leads Paul and Rubio among Republicans… Among conservatives, the order in personal popularity is the same: Ryan, Paul, Rubio, Christie trailing… And on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton crushes Biden among all subgroups… And for Bloomberg, he interestingly has better numbers among Democrats (36%-11%) than indies (22%-33%). So the big take away on the GOP side is this: Ryan is the closest thing to a “front-runner” the party has, because of his name I.D. as the party’s VP running-mate (something that should NOT be discounted). But don’t underestimate Rand Paul; he’s got ratings with INDIE voters that rival Christie while doing better with GOPers and conservatives than both Christie and Rubio. Paul’s had quite the 2013 “rollout” for someone who was treated with gadfly status just six months ago. Below are the breakdowns:

Hillary Clinton’s overall fav/unfav: 56%-29% (April ’13)
Men: 49%-32%
Women: 62%-25%
Democrats: 88%-5%
Indies: 46%-29%
GOP: 23%-56%
Liberals: 86%-5%
Obama voters: 89%-3%

Biden’s overall fav/unfav: 41%-37% (Jan ’13)
Men: 39%-41%
Women: 43%-34%
Dems: 70%-11%
Indies: 34%-34%
GOP: 10%-72%
Liberals: 70%-16%
Obama voters: 75%-8%

Paul Ryan: 30%-34% (Dec’ 12)
Men: 35%-33%
Women: 25%-36%
Dems: 7%-55%
Indies: 27%-21%
GOP: 62%-13%
Conservative: 58%-11%
Romney voters: 68%-5%

Marco Rubio: 28%-16% (April ’13)
Men: 34%-17%
Women: 22%-14%
Democrats 12%-26%
Indies: 27%-12%
GOP: 49%-6%
Conservatives: 45%-6%
Romney voters: 56%-5%

Rand Paul: 27%-23% (April ’13)
Men: 34%-20%
Women: 21%-25%
Democrats: 8%-39%
Indies: 32%-14%
GOP: 53%-6%
Conservatives: 47%-5%
Romney voters: 62%-4%

Chris Christie: 36%-12% (Feb ‘13)
Men: 38%-15%
Women: 34%-10%
Democrats: 36%-14%
Indies: 32%-17%
GOP: 39%-9%
Conservatives: 34%-12%
Romney voters: 41%-11%

Michael Bloomberg: 25%-26% (April ’13)
Men: 26%-34%
Women: 24%-19%
Dems: 36%-11%
Indies: 22%-33%
GOP: 15%-39%
Conservatives: 10%-43%
Liberals: 38%-12%
Moderates: 31%-18%
Obama voters: 39%-11%
Romney voters: 15%-46%

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NBC/WSJ poll on why immigration reform has a better chance of passage than gun control… The more details GOPers hear about a path to citizenship, the more they support it… But GOP respondents overwhelmingly oppose stricter gun laws… NRA’s opposition to Manchin-Toomey doesn’t add up… It’s not just progressives who are attacking Chained CPI -- NRCC Chair Walden is, too… Walden’s attack explains 1) why reforming entitlements is so difficult, and 2) why it hurts the GOP’s credentials in being serious about entitlement reform… And more NBC/WSJ poll: Obama’s approval drops to 47%, and sequester appears to have limited impact (so far).

*** Why immigration reform has a better chance of passage than gun control: The issues of guns and immigration -- once again -- headline today’s political news. At 11:00 am ET, per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, the Senate will hold its first procedural on the Democratic-backed guns legislation. NBC’s Kasie Hunt adds that it’s expected it will get the 60 votes needed to clear that procedural hurdle, but the National Rifle Association said last night that it’s opposes the legislation, including the Manchin-Toomey compromise on background checks, and that it plans to consider scoring that and other amendments. In other political news, the so-called Gang of Eight bipartisan group of senators continues to finalize its compromise immigration-reform legislation, which is expected to be released in the coming days. And our new NBC/WSJ poll helps explain why immigration reform has a MUCH better chance of passing this Congress than any gun legislation does (even Manchin-Toomey): It has much more support from Republicans.

*** The more details GOPers hear about a path to citizenship, the more they support it: According to our poll, 64% of all respondents say they favor allowing undocumented immigrants to have the opportunity to become legal American citizens. That includes 82% of Latinos, 80% of Democrats and 54% of political independents supporting a path to citizenship. But 51% of Republicans oppose it, versus 47% who back it. Yet when told that the pathway to citizenship would require paying fines and back taxes, as well as passing a security-background check, support grows -- with 76% of total respondents and even 73% of Republicans backing the path. Also in the poll, a majority of all respondents (54%) agree with the statement that immigration adds to the nation’s character and strengthens it by bringing diversity and talent to the country. In a 2010 NBC/WSJ survey, fewer than half agreed with that statement, and in 2005, a plurality said that immigration weakened the nation. As NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) tells First Read, “These more positive attitudes provide more leeway for lawmakers to build support for change on this issue.” And this growing support comes at a time when the economy has been flat or worse. The bigger takeaway on the immigration numbers is this: It’s all about HOW reform is sold. If the public hears about the penalties and believes the penalties are real, then this legislation will sail through. But if Washington muddies things and somehow the idea that a path to citizenship doesn’t include any fines or penalties or is seen as “too easy,” problems COULD arise, at least among Republicans. And that would mean problems getting this bill passed in the House would arise with it.

*** GOP respondents overwhelmingly oppose stricter gun laws: The NBC/WSJ poll also shows positive attitudes about gun control: 55% want stricter laws covering the sale of firearms. That’s down 6 points from the Feb. 2013 NBC/WSJ poll -- conducted after Obama’s State of the Union address that contained  a call to action on gun control -- but it’s essentially unchanged from the Jan. 2013 poll. Yet there’s a wide political divide to these numbers: 82% of Democrats favor stricter gun laws, while just 27% of Republicans do. So if Republican respondents are split (47%-51%) on the general idea of a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, a combined 71% want gun laws either to be kept the same or made less strict. Strikingly, there’s also a considerable gender gap when it comes to gun control: 65% of female respondents in the poll want stricter gun laws, versus just 44% of men who want the same. It’s easily one of the largest policy gender gaps we’ve seen in years.

*** NRA’s opposition to Manchin-Toomey doesn’t add up: Sticking with the gun debate, something doesn’t add up about the National Rifle Association’s apparent opposition to the bipartisan Manchin-Toomey compromise on background checks. Our understanding was that both senators were working with NRA, and they wouldn’t have moved forward without the organization’s support -- or at least support not to actively oppose. But then the NRA released its letter last night. In addition to saying that it opposes the overall gun-control package, it added: “The NRA will oppose any amendments offered to S. 649 that restrict fundamental Second Amendment freedoms... This includes the misguided ‘compromise’ proposal drafted by Sens. Joe Manchin, Pat Toomey and Chuck Schumer. As we have noted previously, expanding background checks, at gun shows or elsewhere, will not reduce violent crime or keep our kids safe in their schools. Given the importance of these issues, votes on all anti-gun amendments or proposals will be considered in NRA's future candidate evaluations.” Now MAYBE there’s a little wiggle room in “will be considered,” but that seems like a stretch. We invoke the immortal philosopher from “Dumb & Dumber,” who said after being told he had a 1-in-a-million shot: “So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

*** It’s not just progressives who are attacking Chained CPI: The other intriguing story out there is Rep. Greg Walden’s opposition to the Chained CPI entitlement fix to Social Security. Walden happens to chair the GOP’s House campaign committee, and he said this on CNN yesterday: “I thought it was very intriguing in that [Obama’s] budget really lays out kind of a shocking attack on seniors, if you will. We haven’t seen all the detail yet, so we’ll look at it, but I’ll tell you, when he’s going after seniors the way he’s already done on ObamaCare, taking $700 billion out of Medicare to put it into ObamaCare and now coming back at seniors again, I think you’re crossing that line very quickly here in terms of denying access to seniors for health care in districts like mine certainly and around the country.” Walden added, “I think he’s going to have a lot of pushback from some of the major senior organizations on this and Republicans as well.” But here’s the rub: Republicans, including House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell SUPPORT Chained CPI.

*** Two points on Walden’s comments: Despite word we’re hearing that Walden is way off the GOP reservation when it comes to Chained CPI, Walden is standing behind what he said. “Chairman Walden supports the budget passed by House Republicans that preserves and protects Medicare and Social Security while also balancing the budget in 10 years. He disagrees with President Obama’s political plan that hurts current seniors just so he can pay for more wasteful spending,” the NRCC said in a statement. FWIW, we hear this clarification is not sitting well with members of the GOP leadership either. But this entire episode raises two points: One, it shows why reforming entitlement programs is so difficult, because the political parties are ready to pounce on any type of change that’s unpopular. (Note: Walden, as NRCC chair, is probably reading plenty of polls that indicate changing Social Security is unpopular with liberal seniors, moderate seniors, and conservative seniors) Two, Walden’s comments hurt the GOP in its effort to be taken seriously about entitlement reform. In the past two elections, the party has attacked Obama and the Democrats for “raiding” $716 billion from Medicare, but then uses those cuts to help balance its budget. And now as it’s demanding that Obama get serious about entitlement reform, its campaign chairman is already pouncing politically on changes to Social Security.

*** Just askin’: Walden could be providing a fascinating clarifying moment for the White House: It’ll find out who wants to work with the president and who doesn’t. By the way, who speaks out publicly against Walden and backs up the president, who doesn’t? Also, has Walden given the president a “walk away from talks” free card?

*** Obama’s approval rating drops to 47%: Turning back to our new NBC/WSJ poll, here’s another headline from the survey: Despite majorities backing the broad outlines of his legislative priorities on immigration and guns, President Obama confronts a pessimistic public and declining poll numbers. Only 31% of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction – a decline of 10 points since Dec. 2012. His overall job-approval rating stands at 47%, which is down three points since February and which represents the first time he’s been below 50% since just before the 2012 election. In addition, 47% approve of the president’s economic handling (up 3 points from February), and 46% approve of his handling of foreign policy (down 6 from Dec. 2012). Essentially, the president’s numbers are back to pre-campaign levels. The big hit the president took was among independents: A majority now disapproves of the job he’s doing.

*** Sequester’s limited impact (so far): Lastly, the NBC/WSJ poll finds that only a combined 16% of Americans say the automatic across-the-board budget cuts that went into effect earlier in the year have impacted them either “a great deal” or “quite a bit.” By comparison, a whopping 75% say the cuts to military and non-military programs have affected them “just some” or “not much.” But a plurality of respondents -- 47% -- believe the cuts will mostly harm the economy, versus 30 percent who say they won’t have an impact.

Alex Wong / Getty Images

Alejandra Lozano (C) of Houston, Texas, and other immigration activists gather on the West Lawn of the U.S. Capitol for an All In for Citizenship rally April 10, 2013 on Capitol Hill.

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Deal on background checks tops an eventful day in politics… Breaking down the details of the Manchin-Toomey compromise… Remember: Gun legislation passing the Senate is one thing; passing the House is another… Obama issues statement on his budget at 11:00 am ET… Look Who’s Coming to Dinner, Part 2… Gang of Eight immigration bill to be unveiled as soon as Thursday?... NBC/WSJ poll comes out first thing tomorrow morning… Sanford/Weiner/Woods -- the comeback kids?... A few more thoughts on that taped McConnell camp discussion… And Kelly wins IL-2.

Win Mcnamee / Getty Images

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., speaks on the phone outside the weekly Democratic policy luncheon April 9, 2013 in Washington, DC.

*** Gun deal tops an eventful day: What a day this is shaping up to be here in Washington… President Obama unveils his budget before dining with 12 GOP senators; Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) have reached a deal on universal background checks for firearms sales; and thousands of immigration reform advocates are rallying in DC as the Gang of Eight’s proposal appears ever close to becoming a reality. What’s more, we’re releasing our brand-new NBC/WSJ poll first thing tomorrow morning. Oh, and Anthony Weiner appears to be eyeing a political comeback. But we start with the biggest news of the day -- so far at least: the Manchin-Toomey agreement on guns. One way or another, we always knew that Obama’s budget rollout would get overshadowed by something else. In this case, it’s the new development in the gun debate. So we’re not going to be talking about Chained CPI today; instead, we’re talking about the background-check deal.

Recommended: Background checks for guns - What you need to know

*** The details (so far) of the Manchin-Toomey compromise: NBC’s Kasie Hunt reports that Sens. Manchin and Toomey are expected to announce their deal at 11:00 am ET. The details: The compromise expands background checks to cover all gun-show and online sales of firearms. It also contains significant exceptions for family transfers and in other circumstances. Hunt adds that sources close to the negotiations say the senators have circulated their proposal to the National Rifle Association, but the NRA has not yet commented on the compromise. Last night, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid filed a cloture motion on a gun bill that does NOT include the compromise (although it will be added as an amendment), setting up a Thursday vote to start a Senate debate on guns. That said, Senate Republicans -- led by Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee -- are still planning to filibuster and try to keep debate from starting. As of Tuesday night, they hadn't ruled out standing on the floor and talking for hours, a la Paul’s filibuster against the administration’s drone policy.

*** Gun legislation passing the Senate is one thing; passing the House is another: Yes, it increasingly appears that there are enough votes to break the first filibuster. Per the New York Times, “Several Senate Republicans said Tuesday that they would not participate in a filibuster of the first major gun control bill since 1993, as Democrats appeared on the verge of overcoming a blockade threatened by a group of conservatives before a word of debate on the measure was uttered.” Yet even if the gun legislation -- with the Manchin-Toomey compromise on background checks -- passes the Senate, don’t forget it still has to get through the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. And as we’ve seen in the past (with the fiscal-cliff deal and Hurricane Sandy relief), the only way House GOP leaders will most likely bring it to the floor is if it gets a large number of Senate votes in final passage, and by large number we mean more than 70 votes. It’s one thing for the president and the Newtown families to pull off a “shame the Senate” campaign into a vote; pulling it off in the House will be a trickier and harder task..

*** Obama rolls out his budget: Also today, Obama delivers a Rose Garden statement on the budget at 11:00 am ET -- so at the same time as the Manchin-Toomey presser. (Curious, does the White House wait for Manchin-Toomey? The plan right now is for the president to focus SOLELY on budget at this event). Per NBC’s Ali Weinberg, senior administration officials held a conference call yesterday in which they maintained that the budget -- containing $1.8 trillion in deficit reduction (it counts sequester replacement to get there) -- is not a starting point but a “sticking point.” These officials added  that the budget would "turn off the sequester"; lower spending on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare; and include some new spending proposals (which they stressed would not add to the budget deficit.) all of which, the SAOs said, would not add to the budget deficit. Of course, as we’ve pointed out before, neither the right nor the left is happy with this budget: House Republicans hold a stakeout at 10:00 am ET to comment on Obama’s budget, and the GOP chairs of the Senate and House Budget committees (Sen. Jeff Sessions and Rep. Paul Ryan) hold a conference call with reporters at 2:00 pm ET. That said, it’s still April and therefore still plenty of time to cut some type of budget deal.

*** Look Who’s Coming to Dinner, Part 2: After he unveils his budget, the president holds a White House dinner with 12 Republican senators beginning at 6:30 pm ET. NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell has the backstory on the dinner: Obama phoned Georgia Republican Johnny Isakson a few weeks ago to ask his help in arranging a second dinner with GOP senators. Isakson handled the guest list and told O’Donnell he wanted a cross-section of his party (by region, interests, etc.). The guest list is not being released, but so far we know that attendees will include: Isakson, John Thune, Mike Enzi, Susan Collins, and Marco Rubio (but he may not be able to attend).

*** Gang of Eight bill to be unveiled as soon as Thursday? Speaking of Rubio, there’s a development in the immigration debate -- as thousands of immigration-reform advocates come to Washington to demand a path to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the country. As NBC reported yesterday, the Gang of Eight's draft Senate bill for immigration reform could be released as early as Thursday, but Senate aides indicate that the process of debating the details in the bill in the committee process will stretch an additional few weeks more than anticipated. The extra time is designed to assuage the concerns of Gang of Eight member Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, who has called for hearings and a lengthier process of debate on the measure. Rubio's support could help woo wary Republicans who have entreatied Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy not to "ram" the legislation through the panel and onto the Senate floor.

*** NBC/WSJ poll coming out tomorrow morning: With all of these moving parts on immigration, guns, and the budget, we will be releasing a brand-new NBC/WSJ poll first thing tomorrow morning. So stay tuned for numbers on all of these issues -- and more.

*** The Comeback Kids? So you have Mark Sanford one step away from winning back his old House seat; Tiger Woods is ranked #1 in the world as the Masters begins tomorrow; and the New York Times Magazine reports that Anthony Weiner is thinking about jumping into this year’s New York mayoral race. What’s going on here? Last week, Bloomberg’s Josh Green declared that the political sex scandal -- especially after Bill Clinton’s survival -- is officially dead. We agree to an extent. Sex scandals are no longer career-enders. But they are still career-haunters. After all, the only reason why Sanford’s race next month against Elizabeth Colbert Busch is competitive is due to his scandal. New York voters seem to be begging for another candidate to enter the mayoral race, but is Weiner the one they really want? And even Bill Clinton, whose polling numbers couldn’t be higher right now, has never been able to completely escape his sex scandal. A career-ender is what John Edwards did. As for Sanford and Weiner, their comebacks aren’t yet complete. Here’s what Tiger Woods teaches us about comebacks: Winning matters most, so if Weiner and Sanford win, well, then…

*** A few thoughts on that taped McConnell camp discussion: We have a few thoughts on yesterday’s Mother Jones/Mitch McConnell/Ashley Judd story. For starters, top campaign aides discussing opposition research with their boss happens ALL THE TIME, in both Democratic and Republican campaigns. But what is potentially problematic for the McConnell camp is that you had a room full of men talking tough about two possible female opponents (one of whom was Judd), bringing up sensitive issues like depression and religion. That’s probably why Team McConnell wanted yesterday’s emphasis to be on the process instead of the substance -- thus accusing liberals of illegally taping the conversation (though they have provided no evidence to substantiate that allegation). Yesterday was a fascinating study in crisis management, as Republicans worked very hard on McConnell’s behalf to push the storyline about the process of the recording.

*** Kelly wins IL-2 race: Lastly, Democrat Robin Kelly – as expected – won last night’s special congressional general election in Illinois to fill Jesse Jackson Jr.’s vacated House seat. Roll Call: “Her victory came as no surprise. The 2nd District is heavily Democratic and Kelly had minimal opposition in the general election. McKinley is a convicted felon, according to numerous news outlets.”

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GOP miscalculates on filibuster against gun legislation, especially as Newtown families begin to lobby Congress?.... Latest on the Manchin-Toomey talks… Too soon to read the 2014 tea leaves… Robin Kelly expected to cruise to victory in IL-2 special; polls close at 8:00 pm ET… Colbert Busch releases first TV ad of general election in SC-1… On the unbalanced “special relationship”… And Henry Clay wins First Read’s SENATE MADNESS contest.

T.J. Kirkpatrick / Getty Images

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., speaks to the press after the weekly Senate Republicans policy luncheon on March 19, 2013 in Washington, DC.

*** GOP miscalculates on filibuster? As the Senate is expected to consider gun-regulation legislation in the next few days, President Obama’s speech in Connecticut on Monday had one purpose: to shame Republicans vowing to filibuster the legislation. “When I said in my State of the Union address that these proposals deserve a vote … virtually every member of that chamber stood up and applauded,” Obama said. “And now they’re going to start denying your families a vote when the cameras are off and when the lobbyists have worked what they do? You deserve better than that. You deserve a vote.” We know why Senate Republicans want to filibuster the legislation (they want to block it, of course), and we know why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has joined the effort (he doesn’t want any opposition from the right as he runs for re-election next year). But it’s hard not to view the filibuster attempt as a potential strategic error just on the politics. Why? Because it paints the GOP as obstructionists, and it lowers the bar for victory for Obama (to simply beating the GOP filibuster). Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said as much over the weekend. “I don’t understand it,” he said. “What are we afraid of?…If this issue is as important as all of us think it is…why not take it up and debate?”

*** Especially as Newtown families begin lobbying Congress: And as these Newtown families begin lobbying -- NBC’s Kristen Welker says there are 11 family members in DC today pushing Congress for stiffer gun laws -- this obstruction strategy could end up backfiring, with some Republican senators who might not think this is worth the political capital. Remember, Senate Republicans already have a built in “pocket veto” of sorts on the legislation itself -- it’s called the Republican controlled House of Representatives. While we understand the base politics on this issue, this seems to be yet another way the GOP brand is getting tarnished with swing voters, even with voters who may be sympathetic with the pro-gun argument but are turned off by the idea of how politics is practiced in Washington right now.

*** Latest on the Manchin-Toomey talks: Meanwhile, NBC’s Welker reports that Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) are making PROGRESS on reaching a compromise on background checks, according to a source familiar with the talks (who puts the odds at success at 50%-50%). The compromise would require background checks for purchases at gun shows and on the internet -- but NOT for person-to-person sales.  The deal would also require sellers to keep a record of background checks. One other event of note today: At 2:00 pm ET, Vice President Biden and Attorney General Eric Holder deliver remarks at the White House to press Congress to enact gun-control changes.

*** Too soon to read the 2014 tea leaves: The Cook Political Report’s Charlie Cook examines the two competing narratives about the still-developing 2014 midterms. The first is that the GOP’s unpopularity and its tattered brand will dominate next year’s races, which would produce minimal gains/losses in the House and the inability for Republicans to win control of the Senate. The second narrative is that problems implementing Obama’s health-care law, as well as the incumbent party’s “six-year itch” performance, will hurt Democrats and possibly give the GOP an opening to retake the Senate. Cook’s ultimate conclusion: “At this point, it’s just wisest to watch over the next six or eight months to see which of these narratives seem to gain traction, or alternatively, if some other dynamic seems to be taking hold.” After all, in April of ’09, few could see that the GOP was poised for a historic midterm win about 20 months later. Similarly, in April of ’11 (when the unemployment rate was at 9%), few were expecting a decisive 2012 cycle for the Democrats.

*** But several moving 2014 parts: Still, there also are several moving 2014 storylines out there. One, it appears Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has two different primary challengers… Per the AP, Rep. Steve King (R-IA) might not run for Iowa’s open Senate seat… And in South Dakota, you have two Democrats potentially vying for that open seat (Tim Johnson’s son, as well as former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin).

*** Kelly expected to cruise to victory in IL-2 special: Today, Chicago-area voters head to the polls in the special general election to fill the congressional seat vacated by former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL). And the Democratic nominee, Cook County Chief Administrative Officer Robin Kelly, is expected to easily win. For one thing, the district overwhelmingly leans Democratic. Secondly, as Roll Call writes, Republican nominee Paul McKinley is a convicted felon, serving nearly 20 years in state prison for burglary and aggravated battery. Polls close at 8:00 pm ET.

*** Colbert Busch releases first general-election TV ad: Speaking of special congressional elections, Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch is up with her first general-election TV ad in that South Carolina contest, and it’s a positive bio spot. “I’m Elizabeth Colbert Busch, and as a single mom raising three young children, I had to be independent and do what’s right for them. Now, I’m going to take that lesson to Congress,” she says in the ad. “I won't take any special-interest pledges or follow any party line. To create jobs in South Carolina, we need a well-educated and skilled workforce, and we need to get rid of government waste. The deficit is killing jobs.”

*** Unbalanced “special relationship”: It’s ambassador-picking season again, and top donors are likely to be part of the equation for plum posts once again. Ambassadors to the United Kingdom have so overwhelmingly been political appointees -- just one career diplomat has served as the top man in London in more than 200 years of the U.S. sending envoys to Britain. This is very different than the way the U.K. picks ambassadors to Washington. They are traditionally the best-of-the-best career diplomats. The one American Foreign Service Officer who’s held the post is Raymond Seitz under George H.W. Bush. Seitz is regarded as one of the best ambassadors to the U.K. post-World War II. One of us tracked him down and interviewed him on the state of play of doling out ambassadorships and looks at the reasons for the unbalanced “special relationship” when it comes to picking ambassadors. Seitz, by the way, now retired, is living in a small New Hampshire town, where he’s proudly the non-salaried deputy supervisor of the town dump. “It is a kind of political appointment,” he said, “but I take my duties seriously.”

*** Senate Madness -- The Winner: Henry Clay: Out of more than 4,500 votes cast yesterday, Henry Clay (“The Great Compromiser”) defeated Ted Kennedy (“The Last Lion”) in our Senate Madness contest pitting history’s most consequential senators. Thanks to everyone who participated in this fun -- and very educational -- exercise.

*** Who was Henry Clay? Henry Clay’s (D-R-Whig, 1777-1852) ability to navigate a fractured Senate is credited with fending off war between slave-owning and free states -- at least three times. He was pivotal in the negotiations in the creation of the Missouri Compromise, which allowed the United States to continue its Western expansion. For his efforts, Clay earned the nicknames “The Great Compromiser” and “The Great Pacificator.” How revered was he? Abraham Lincoln called him "my beau ideal of a statesman" and often used his quotes in his speeches. He was the first ever to receive the honor of being laid in state in the Capitol Rotunda. Clay also engineered the only censure of a president -- Andrew Jackson. Clay's death, which took place a decade before the Civil War's start, was regarded as the end of the Senate's "Golden Era."

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This story was originally published on Tue Apr 9, 2013 9:15 AM EDT

Obama to offer compromise budget to Republicans… A last chance at reaching a deal?... The monthly jobs numbers: Economy adds just 88,000 jobs in March (lowest in nine months), but unemployment rate falls to 7.6%... The week’s 2016 round up… What happened to Bobby Jindal’s poll numbers?... Scott Brown eyeing Senate seat in … New Hampshire?... And SENATE MADNESS -- introducing our Final Four: Webster vs. Clay and LBJ vs. Kennedy.

*** Obama to offer compromise budget to Republicans: With his budget to be officially unveiled on April 10, President Obama had a choice of two paths to take. He could either release a budget that contains a pie-in-the-sky wish list comporting with Senate Democrats, or one that tries to make a serious offer to congressional Republicans to get them back to the negotiating table. Well, we now have an early answer -- he’s selected Door No. 2. NBC News has confirmed that the White House on Wednesday will release a budget that contains an additional $1.8 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years ($600 billion in new revenues on top of the fiscal-cliff deal reached at the beginning of the year, $930 billion in spending cuts, and $200 billion in reduced interest payments). Among the spending cuts is a reduction in cost-of-living payments for Social Security recipients, known as chained CPI. As the New York Times, which broke this story, writes, the budget essentially “will embody the final compromise offer that he made to Speaker John A. Boehner late last year, before Mr. Boehner abandoned negotiations in opposition to the president’s demand for higher taxes from wealthy individuals and some corporations.”

*** A last chance at reaching a deal? The administration maintains that these offers -- including chained CPI -- are only valid if Republicans accept more revenues as part of a compromise deal. “The president has made clear that he is willing to compromise and do tough things to reduce the deficit, but only in the context of a package like this one that has balance and includes revenues from the wealthiest Americans and that is designed to promote economic growth,” a senior administration says. This budget is going to get grief from everyone: The left is already howling at the chained CPI, because it amounts to a cut for beneficiaries; critics will charge that the administration is once again negotiating from the middle (or with themselves); and House Republicans point out that chained CPI produces more revenue, which they don’t think is acceptable. But if you assume that the White House’s only opportunity to cut a budget deal is with Senate Republicans who aren’t part of leadership -- remember that Obama has another dinner with Senate GOPers the night he releases the budget -- this compromise offer is maybe his best chance to get them on board.  

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama smiles before boarding Marine One helicopter from a field overlooking the iconic golden gate bridge in San Francisco, Calif., on April 4, 2013.

*** And why he had to dangle compromise, including chained CPI: Had the White House decided to withhold chained CPI, then the charges of being “not serious” or “moving the goalposts” would have come fast and furious from Republicans, including those in the Senate where the White House has some opportunity to deal. And the president already has been out in public defending the idea of changing the CPI as a budget tool, so why back off now? The only way the president’s budget was going to be relevant -- coming two months late and AFTER the House and Senate already passed theirs -- was to use it as an attempt to start the negotiations. And that’s what the White House calculated.

*** Economy adds just 88,000 jobs in March, unemployment rate drops to 7.6%: Here’s the other big story this Friday morning: In the first post-sequester jobs report, the U.S. economy added just 88,000 jobs in the month of March (the fewest in nine months), although the unemployment rate dropped from 7.7% to 7.6%. More from the AP: “The weakness may signal that companies were worried last month about steep government spending cuts that began on March 1. March's job gains were half the pace of the previous six months, when the economy added an average of 196,000 jobs a month. The drop raises fears that the economy could slow after a stronger winter.” Don’t be surprised if this lower-than-expected number puts pressure on Congress to alleviate the sequester cuts. One other thing worth noted: This data confirms the pattern we’ve seen over the past few years -- as spring rolls in, job growth slows down.

*** The week’s 2016 round up: In our weekly look at the emerging -- and very early -- 2016 race, perhaps the biggest thing we learned is that it doesn’t take too much for Hillary Clinton to launch a thousand news clips. By delivering a speech on Tuesday at a global women’s organization she founded (and at an event also attended by VP Joe Biden), Clinton became the topic of numerous political pieces speculating about her 2016 intentions. Elsewhere: On Thursday, Biden’s office released a “Being Biden” audio from the vice president discussing his appearance at the Kennedy Center with Clinton… A McClatchy/Marist poll showed Clinton besting Marco Rubio (52%-40%), Rand Paul (52%-41%), and Jeb Bush (54%-38%), but narrowly edging Chris Christie (46%-43%). The same survey had Biden topping Rubio (53%-39%), Paul (50%-41%) and Bush (49%-41), but losing to Christie (43%-46%)… Over the weekend, Marco Rubio tapped the brakes on the immigration-reform proposal that the bipartisan group of senators (including him) is working on… On Wednesday, Chris Christie said he supported the firing of ex-Rutgers basketball coach Mike Rice… We learned that both Joe Biden and Ted Cruz will be in Columbia, SC, May 3 delivering speeches helping to raise money for the local parties… And we learned that Rand Paul will be speaking at a New Hampshire dinner on May 20.

*** What happened to Jindal’s poll numbers? There’s one other piece of 2016 that we can’t ignore: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s declining poll numbers. Per a new Southern Media Opinion & Research poll, just 38% of state residents approve of Jindal’s job as governor -- which is down from 51% last October. What happened to Jindal? You could argue that, nationally, he’s been doing all the right things to lay the groundwork for a 2016 bid. But locally? Ouch…

*** Scott Brown eyeing Senate seat in  … New Hampshire? After delivering a speech in New Hampshire yesterday, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) refused to rule out a 2014 Senate run in … the Granite State, not his home state of Massachusetts. The Boston Globe: “Brown, speaking to reporters after delivering the keynote speech at a dinner to mark the anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.’s death, noted that he owns a home in New Hampshire, has ‘been a taxpayer’ there for 20 years, and has relatives who live in the state. When asked directly if he would rule out a run for office in New Hampshire, Brown — who lost his reelection bid in Massachusetts in November to current Senator Elizabeth Warren — left his options open. ‘I’m not going to rule out anything right now, because I really haven’t thought a heck of a lot about it.’” But actually, we can report that his last statement is NOT true. He’s actually been pondering this for a while; we’ve been hearing that Brown has been whispering this New Hampshire idea to former colleagues. But in addition to trying to become the first popularly elected senator to serve in the Senate from two different states, Brown might have this other challenge: He recently joined a prominent lobbying and law firm with a concentration of business and governmental affairs.

*** Senate Madness -- yesterday’s results: In the 19^th Century, #1 Daniel Webster defeated #3 Charles Sumner… In the Mixed Era, #1 Henry Clay bested #14 Scoop Jackson… In the 20^th Century, #1 LBJ beat #11 Mike Mansfield… And in the Modern Era, #1 Ted Kennedy triumphed over #2 Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

*** Senate Madness -- the Final Four: So that means we have just four senators left, and they’re all the #1 seeds. (Talk about chalk!) So in our Final Four, it’s Daniel Webster (“The Great Orator”) vs. Henry Clay (“The Great Compromiser”), and it’s Lyndon Johnson (“The Master of the Senate”) vs. Ted Kennedy (“The Last Lion”). Be sure to cast your votes here.

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Obama dips his toes in the ’14 waters… WH on guns: Let’s make a deal… Obama to give up 5% of his pay as sequester takes effect; who else will follow?... GOP’s return to social issues: Priebus hits Planned Parenthood, Cuccinelli defends anti-sodomy statute… And SENATE MADNESS enters the Elite 8.

Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

President Barack Obama looks out as House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (in red) points out toward the ocean during a Democratic fund raiser at the home of billionaire former asset manager Tom Steyer in San Francisco April 3, 2013.

*** Obama dips his toes in the 2014 waters: In his first events for the still-developing 2014 midterm cycle, President Obama hit a pair of fundraisers last night in California for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Mindful of all the GOP concern that Obama’s main focus is politics and the ’14 midterms (see the questions he received at that House GOP conference meeting just a few weeks ago), Obama went out of his way to emphasize the need to work with Republicans on guns, immigration, and the budget. “Look, my intention here is to try to get as much done with the Republican Party over the next two years as I can, because we can’t have perpetual campaigns,” he said at one of the fundraisers.  “I am looking to find areas of common ground with Republicans every single day.” But he also told the attendees that he wants to help Pelosi become speaker again. “I want her once again as a fully empowered partner for us to be able to move our agenda forward.” Obama put it more bluntly at the second fundraiser. “I would be dishonest if I didn’t say that it would be a whole lot easier to govern if I had Nancy Pelosi as speaker.

*** Why Obama had to start these fundraisers so early: Despite Obama’s insistence that he wants to work with Republicans on guns, immigration, etc., don’t be surprised if GOPers focus on WHERE he was not WHAT he said. If it had its druthers, we’re guessing the White House would have preferred to hold off on some fundraising for a bit. But there’s another reason why Obama agreed to these early funders.  The president had his own intra-party politics to worry about which. Some House and Senate Dems are nervous the president is more focused on raising money for Organizing for Action rather than help the party, so this is an attempt to quiet down those critiques. Also, the Obama campaign gave the DCCC and DSCC virtually no financial help in 2012, and the folks on Capitol Hill noticed. Today, Obama remains in California, where he hits two more fundraisers -- this time for the Democratic National Committee. 

*** Let’s make a deal: Speaking of that balance between Obama being his party’s leader but also a president who wants to sign bipartisan legislation, the White House signaled yesterday that it’s willing accept any kind of compromise on gun background checks that it can get. “What the president wants to sign is the strongest gun bill he can sign,” White House Senior Adviser Dan Pfeiffer said a Politico-sponsored breakfast yesterday. “What we have to make sure is that whatever we do is better than current law.”   To us, that’s a clear message to someone like Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), essentially saying: “Take what you can get from Tom Coburn or any other Republican and just pass it.” It’s not every day the White House signals he’ll sign just about anything, as long as there is the smallest incremental improvement.  Sticking with the issue of guns, Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy will sign his state’s gun-control legislation at noon ET, and Maryland appears poised to pass gun-control legislation, too. We said this earlier in the week and others are now picking up on it: While passing gun control might be a difficult feat in Washington, states (especially those controlled by Democrats) are having a much easier time.

*** Who else is going to give up their pay? In other White House-related news yesterday, we learned that Obama will return 5% of his salary to the U.S. Treasury at a time when other federal workers are being furloughed as part of the mandatory “sequester” cuts. This is purely a symbolic move by the president, but as the Washington Post’s Cillizza notes, it could put pressure on Republicans who are more than content that the sequester remains in place. How? For one thing, don’t be surprised if Obama’s action forces GOP leaders like John Boehner, Eric Cantor, and Mitch McConnell if they also will return 5% of their salary to the U.S. Treasury. It’s a gambit, no doubt. But it’s a gambit that seemed to catch the GOP a bit off guard yesterday.

*** GOP’s return to social issues Remember when Republican elites were looking to downplay social issues (like gay marriage and abortion) as a way to broaden the party’s appeal? Well, as NBC’s Mike O’Brien writes, two high-profile Republicans in the last 24 hours were pushing hot-button social issues. RNC Chair Reince Priebus, whose “Growth and Opportunity Project” released last month recommended that the GOP be more “inclusive and welcoming,” wrote an op-ed in Red State blasting Planned Parenthood and accusing it of supporting “infanticide.” He wrote, “In the last election, Republicans were repeatedly asked about whether they supported cutting funding to Planned Parenthood. It’s time Democrats are asked whether they still support funding an organization that refuses to care for a newborn.” Folks, it’s not an accident that after the GOP has decided not to engage on gay marriage, the RNC chair is playing up abortion and Planned Parenthood. It looks like a way to appease social conservatives, who are still needed inside the GOP tent. However, the question is whether targeting abortion and Planned Parenthood is the best way to improve on the party’s struggles with female voters. But for now, realize this seems all about base politics with evangelicals.

*** Priebus hits Planned Parenthood, Cuccinelli takes on anti-sodomy statute: The other example yesterday of a high-profile Republican engaging on social issues came from Virginia GOP gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli. The Washington Post: “Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has challenged a recent court ruling finding Virginia’s anti-sodomy law unconstitutional... A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit ruled on March 12 that Virginia’s ‘Crimes Against Nature’ statute, which banned oral and anal sex, violates the due process clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. One judge dissented, agreeing with a lower court that the Supreme Court’s ruling in Lawrence v. Texas on sodomy laws applied only to consenting adults. The case in question involved a teenage girl and a 47-year-old man, William Scott MacDonald, who was convicted of soliciting a minor to commit a felony.” Cuccinelli’s campaign maintains that the challenge is all about “protecting children from sexual predators,” but because the statute in question bans all oral and anal sex, critics charge that it’s anti-gay. Two points here: 1) If Cuccinelli had resigned as AG, he wouldn’t have to be dealing with cases like this; and 2) he still hasn’t made a pivot to jobs and the economy, a la Bob McDonnell. By the way, don’t miss this campaign video by GOP LG candidate Pete Snyder that hits Dem Terry McAuliffe. In this crowded LG field, the GOP candidates are looking for ways to separate from the pack (and from Cuccinelli).

*** Senate Madness -- yesterday’s results: In the 19^th Century, #1 Daniel Webster defeated #5 Sam Houston, and #3 Charles Sumner bested #2 John C. Calhoun… In the Mixed Era, #1 Henry Clay trounced #4 Robert La Follette, and #14 Scoop Jackson upset #2 Henry Cabot Lodge… In the 20^th Century, #1 LBJ beat #12 Richard Russell, and #11 Mike Mansfield edged #2 Everett Dirksen… And in the Modern Era, #1 Ted Kennedy triumphed over #5 Hubert Humphrey, and #2 Daniel Patrick Moynihan beat #11 Joe Biden.

*** Senate Madness -- the Elite 8: In today’s match ups, Daniel Webster squares off against Charles Sumner in the 19^th Century bracket, Henry Clay faces Scoop Jackson in the Mixed Era, LBJ goes toe to toe against Mike Mansfield in the 20^th Century bracket, and Ted Kennedy battles Daniel Patrick Moynihan in the Modern Era.

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Morning Joe/Marist poll: Public still supports gun control… The problem for reformers: GOP doesn’t… Obama and using the bully pulpit to its fullest extent… President talks gun control in Denver at 5:00 pm ET… Why the deficit and debt might not be the best talking points… Hillary and Biden share the same stage… Sanford wins GOP nomination in SC; does the NRCC get involved?... Landrieu gets legit GOP challenger… And SENATE MADNESS enters Sweet 16!!!

Yuri Gripas / Reuters

President Barack Obama hugs a gun control activist after delivering remarks on common-sense measures to protect children from gun violence at the White House, March 28, 2013.

*** Public still supports gun control: In the past few weeks, two narratives have surfaced in the gun debate. One, it’s going to be difficult for Congress to pass any major gun-control legislation this year. And two, public opinion for gun-control measures is beginning to slip months after the Newtown, CT shooting tragedy. The first narrative is definitely true. The second? Not according to a brand-new Morning Joe/Marist poll. Six in 10 Americans believe that the laws covering gun sales should be stricter. That figure is virtually unchanged from the 61% who backed stricter gun laws when a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll asked the same question in February, even though at least one other national survey has found waning support for gun-control laws after Newtown. What’s more, the Morning Joe/Marist survey finds that a whopping 87% of Americans support background checks for private gun sales and sales at gun shows, and 59% favor legislation that would ban the sale of assault weapons. So when President Obama delivers remarks on guns in Colorado today at 5:00 pm ET -- and in Connecticut on Monday -- he still has appears to have public opinion on his side.

*** The problem for reformers: GOP doesn’t: But what isn’t on Obama’s side is GOP support, and that’s why getting Congress to pass any significant legislation this year will be a tall hurdle. While 60% of respondents want stricter gun laws, just 37% of Republicans agree (compared with 83% of Democrats and 55% of independents). In addition, just 41% of Republicans favor the assault-weapons ban (vs. 75% of Democrats and 55% of indies). The one measure that does receive overwhelming bipartisan support, however, is background checks -- 94% of Dems, 86% of indies, and 81% of Republicans favor them -- and that’s why it remains supporters’ best chance at achieving anything in the gun reform realm. That said, what’s the incentive for House GOPers on this? And think about what’s coming up for votes in the House: immigration reform and guns. Here’s betting House GOP leadership is willing to allow just one of those items on the floor under the scenario where Boehner has to violate the so-called Hastert Rule of not having a majority of the majority. And immigration is something party leaders want to have happen. Guns might not be the same priority for the GOP.

*** Using the bully pulpit to its fullest extent: As Obama talks gun control in Denver, CO today and in Connecticut on Monday, here’s one more point we want to make about the debate: He has used the bully pulpit on this issue to its fullest extent. Some have begun to criticize the president for not doing more, but ask yourself: Which politician in Washington is doing more across the country to talk about the issue and shape the debate? And when you look at the Morning Joe/Marist poll, Obama has been able to influence those he can influence -- Democrats and independents. While there are plenty of examples of issues where the president has dropped the ball in selling a legislative item (think the stimulus or the health-care law, especially after their passage), it’s hard to add gun control to this list.

*** Why the deficit and debt might not be the best talking points: The Morning Joe/Marist poll also asked a few questions on the economy and the deficit. The findings: By nearly a 2-to-1 margin, respondents want President Obama and Congress to make job creation their top priority (64%) instead of deficit reduction (33%). Also, Obama edges congressional Republicans by four percentage points, 44% to 40%, on who has a better approach to deal with the federal budget deficit. But the president’s approach to deficit reduction – calling for a combination of spending cuts and increased tax revenues – is more popular than the Republicans’ cuts-only approach: 42% prefer a mixture of spending cuts (including to entitlement programs) and revenue increases; 35% pick increasing mostly revenue; and just 17% choose mostly cutting government spending (including to programs like Medicare and Medicaid). Bottom line for the GOP: Solely focusing on the debt and deficit, and solely focusing on a cuts-only approach, isn’t a winning issue with the public.

*** Hillary and Biden share the same stage: As NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported on “TODAY,” Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden headlined a global women’s organization that Hillary founded 14 years ago, which produced plenty of 2016 speculation and tea-leaf reading. The New York Times: “It was an evening without overt politics and yet Mrs. Clinton’s appearance drew attention as she enters a period of deciding whether to run for president again in 2016.” Hillary Clinton is more inevitable than any other non-incumbent since Dwight Eisenhower. Indeed, the question everyone will be pondering for the next two years: Will she run? On the one hand, Hillary Clinton is more inevitable than any other non-incumbent since Dwight Eisenhower. On the other hand, it was the same situation she was in in 2005, and we knew how that turned out. By the way, we are well aware that any public movement Hillary makes will get over-covered and over-analyzed, and perhaps every one of these events THIS EARLY are truly meaningless as far as 2016 is concerned. But Hillary is in rare air, and her folks know this is the case even if they wish it weren’t so. It means every appearance and every word is more carefully orchestrated and that was clearly on display last night.

*** With Sanford win, does the NRCC get involved? Short answer: Of course, it has no choice: As expected, Mark Sanford continued his road to political comeback as he won the special congressional GOP run-off in South Carolina last night, defeating Curtis Bostic, 57%-43%. Yesterday, we asked this question: Does the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee play in this race to help its nominee, Elizabeth Colbert Busch? And today, we have this follow-up question: Does the National Republican Congressional Committee get involved? While the DCCC question is still an open debate, it’s no debate on the NRCC side. It has no choice. If the GOP loses the May 7 general election, national Republicans will have to do it all over again -- recruit candidates, hold a contested primary, etc. So it’s in their interest to win this now. The good news for Republicans: If they do lose, there’s an obvious reason -- it’s because of the candidate, not because of the party or a particular issue and it won’t be seen as some larger sign. The only reason this seat is in play is Mark Sanford, period.

*** Landrieu gets a legit GOP challenger: Roll Call writes, “Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy will challenge Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu in Louisiana, in what’s likely to be one of the most competitive races of 2014... The Associated Press reported Tuesday that Cassidy will officially announce his candidacy in a video to be released on Wednesday.”

*** Senate Madness -- yesterday’s results: In the 20^th Century bracket, Lyndon Johnson beat Robert F. Wagner, Richard Russell edged John Sherman Cooper, Mike Mansfield defeated John Stennis, and Everett Dirksen beat William Fulbright… In the Modern Era, Ted Kennedy trounced Robert Byrd, Hubert Humphrey blew out Ed Brooke, Joe Biden defeated Jesse Helms, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan triumphed over Bob Dole. 

*** Senate Madness -- the Sweet 16: Today, we feature our third-round -- and thus Sweet 16 -- contests: In the 20^th Century, it’s #1 seed LBJ vs.#12  Richard Russell (“The Master of the Senate” vs. The Southern Lion) and #2 Everett Dirksen vs. #11 Mike Mansfield… In the Modern Era, it’s #1 Ted Kennedy vs. #5 Hubert Humphrey and #2 Daniel Patrick Moynihan vs. #11 Joe Biden…. In the 19^th Century, it’s #1 Daniel Webster vs. #5 Sam Houston, and #2 John C. Calhoun vs. #3 Charles Sumner… And in the Mixed Era, it’s #1 Henry Clay vs. #4 Robert La Follette and #2 Henry Cabot Lodge vs. #14 Scoop Jackson.

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The NRA fights back -- with mixed success so far… How the Newtown tragedy changed politics (at least inside one party)… Will the Arkansas pipeline spill affect the Keystone decision?... Mark Sanford on the comeback trail… Will the DCCC get involved if he wins today’s GOP run-off?... Polls close at 7:00 pm ET… And the second round of SENATE MADNESS continues!!!

Michelle Mcloughlin / Reuters

Residents protest outside the National Shooting Sports Foundation in Newtown, Conn., March 28, 2013 after receiving robocalls from the NRA, trying to enlist them in efforts to defeat new statewide gun control proposals.

*** The NRA fights back – with mixed success: At 11:00 am ET, the National Rifle Association will unveil its details to arm school guards across the country. This comes as the NRA -- after the Newtown school shooting tragedy --- has decided to fight all the gun-control legislation as aggressively as possible, despite early indications that it might look the other way on the trafficking or background-check bills. And while it has enjoyed plenty of success so far at the federal level (the assault-weapons ban has no chance for passage, and even universal background checks appear to be on the ropes), the state level has been a different story. First, Colorado recently passed gun-control laws that places limits on ammunition clips and institutes a universal background check, and President Obama will travel to the state this Wednesday to highlight those new laws. And now Connecticut is on the cusp on passing gun-control measures. The Hartford Courant: “Easy passage of the legislative response to the Dec. 14 [Newtown] killings is expected in House and Senate votes scheduled for Wednesday, leaders of both the Democratic majority and Republican minority said after completing weeks of negotiations on the bill.” The measures include strengthening the state’s existing ban on semi-automatic weapons, restricting high-capacity magazines, and requiring background checks for all gun purchasers.

*** How Newtown did change politics (inside one party): While both Colorado and Connecticut are states that have recently witnessed high-profile gun tragedies, they have this other similarity: They’re controlled by Democratic governors and Democratic state legislatures. Some observers have noted that the Newtown shootings -- and the NRA’s response to them (like invoking the president’s daughters in a video) -- haven’t changed the politics of guns. But that’s not true where Democrats have control of the government. As the NRA seems headed toward victory this on the federal level, the question becomes: Has it permanently damaged its reputation with Democrats? After all, what made the NRA powerful was its bipartisan reach. If that disappears, will the organization have problems the next time there’s a Democratic House speaker and a supermajority in the Senate?

*** Will the Arkansas pipeline spill affect the Keystone decision? We’re most likely just a few weeks from the Obama administration’s final decision on whether to give the Keystone XL pipeline a thumbs up or a thumbs down. And if you were placing bets on which direction the White House will go, most would say the smart money would be on Obama reluctantly approving the pipeline. But don’t underestimate the impact that this story might have on the approval process. “Exxon Mobil Corp continued efforts on Monday to clean up thousands of barrels of heavy Canadian crude oil spilled from a near 65-year-old pipeline in Arkansas, as a debate raged about the safety of transporting rising volumes of the fuel into the United States,” Reuters reports. Don’t forget: Just as the Obama administration opened up drilling along the Gulf Coast, the BP spill occurred. And as it was on the cusp of expanding nuclear energy, Japan happened. These events can have an impact. Timing is everything.

*** Sanford on the comeback trail: Following American politics can be fascinating. The latest example:  Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford’s political comeback. One minute, he’s the conservative darling standing up to the Obama administration and a possible 2012 presidential candidate. The next, he’s embarrassed and out of office after having an affair with an Argentine mistress when he’s supposed to be hiking the Appalachian Trail. Then he launches a political comeback by running for his old congressional seat, and the Conventional Wisdom maintains that he can’t break 50% in a run-off. But with the special congressional Republican run-off taking place today, the C.W. has turned due to a variety of reasons -- and Sanford appears poised to win the GOP nomination. And now the latest twist: The Democratic nominee for the May 7 general election, who just happens to be comedian Stephen Colbert’s sister, has released a poll showing her leading both Sanford and his run-off opponent, Curtis Bostic, in this conservative-leaning district. You can’t make this up.

*** Does the DCCC get involved? If Sanford wins today’s run-off in South Carolina -- the polls close at 7:00 pm ET -- the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee faces this question: Does it spend money (say $500,000) to help put Elizabeth Colbert Busch over the top? The DCCC tells us it’s evaluating the race. Make no mistake, Colbert Busch has this opportunity because of Sanford’s personal issues. And if she wins on May 7, it’s very likely she’ll have a difficult time holding onto the seat come Nov. 2014. So Democrats face this choice: Do they spend money to help win a temporary P.R. victory, knowing full well that it probably can’t hold onto the seat a year from now? Or do they sit back and consider the race a win-win, regardless of what happens next month? Colbert Busch needs the financial help, and that’s probably why her campaign released the poll yesterday -- to force the DCCC’s hand. Speaking of financial help, Stephen Colbert is hosting a fundraiser in DC for his sister on April 15.

*** Senate Madness -- yesterday’s results: In the 19^th Century bracket, Daniel Webster easily beat William Seward, Sam Houston edged Stephen Douglas, Charles Sumner blew out James Buchanan, and John C. Calhoun defeated Thomas Hart Benton. In the Mixed Era, Henry Clay beat Sam Ervin, Robert La Follette defeated George Norris, #14 seed Scoop Jackson upset #6 seed William Borah, and Henry Cabot Lodge prevailed over Arthur Vandenberg.

*** Senate Madness -- the 2^nd round continues: Today, the second-round contests take place in the 20^th Century bracket: LBJ vs. Robert Wagner, Richard Russell vs. John Sherman Cooper, Mike Mansfield vs. John Stennis, and Everett Dirsken vs. William Fulbright…. And they also take place in the Modern Era: Ted Kennedy vs. Robert Byrd, Hubert Humphrey vs. Ed Brooke, Jesse Helms vs. Joe Biden, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan vs. Bob Dole.

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Brace yourselves for April’s shower of activity on Capitol Hill… Waiting on Marco Rubio on immigration reform… Two paths for Obama’s upcoming budget… Will SCOTUS gay-marriage cases unleash chaos?...  Boehner, RNC blast Young, forcing him to apologize for slur… But as the GOP tries to improve its standing with Latinos, is it the tone or the policy?... SC-1 GOP run-off takes place tomorrow… And our second round of SENATE MADNESS begins!!!

*** April’s shower of activity on Capitol Hill: This month is shaping up to be a busy -- and consequential -- month in Washington. When Congress returns from its Easter/Passover break next week, the Senate is expected to consider the Democrat-backed gun legislation that a handful of GOP senators have threatened to filibuster (and that’s still missing Republican support). Also around the same time, the eight bipartisan senators working on immigration reform are on track to announce an agreement on the bill they’re drafting.  “I am very, very optimistic that we will have an agreement among the eight of us next week,” Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said on “Meet the Press” yesterday. Added Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ): “We've still got a ways to go in terms of looking at the language and making sure that it's everything we thought it would be. But we're closer, certainly.” And on April 10, President Obama is scheduled to finally send his budget to Congress. Yet of these three different moving parts, the one we bet we’re still talking about come May and the summer is immigration reform. How April goes could very well determine if Obama signs that reform into law in the next few months.

*** Waiting on Marco Rubio: And that brings us to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), another member of the bipartisan group of senators working on immigration reform. As Schumer and Flake expressed optimism about its prospects, especially after organized labor and the Chamber of Commerce reached an important agreement on guest workers as part of the package, Rubio tapped the brakes. “I’m encouraged by reports of an agreement between business groups and unions on the issue of guest workers. However, reports that the bipartisan group of eight senators have agreed on a legislative proposal are premature,” he said in a statement issued yesterday. “We will need a healthy public debate that includes committee hearings and the opportunity for other senators to improve our legislation with their own amendments... In order to succeed, this process cannot be rushed or done in secret.” It’s a legitimate question to ask: What is Rubio up to here? If his role is to sell the legislation to conservatives, he can’t afford to be seen as rushing it through, so his tapping of the brakes is smart. On the other hand, if you’re an immigration-reform advocate, you have to be a bit concerned about the totality of the statements coming from him and office. (Remember, Rubio is a recent convert on comprehensive immigration reform.) Make no mistake: Rubio is the difference between the Senate bill getting 60 votes or 75 votes. And if it gets 75 votes, it has a MUCH better chance of clearing the House with a path to citizenship.

*** Two paths for Obama’s upcoming budget: As Obama is set to unveil his budget next week, it raises these two questions: Will it simply reaffirm what Senate Democrats recently passed? Or will it lay out a potential path to compromise with House Republicans? After all, White House budgets typically come BEFORE the Senate and House act on theirs. But Obama’s budget is coming AFTER the two chambers already passed their respective budgets. And it puts the White House in a bind. If it lays out a potential path to compromise (offering “chained CPI” on Social Security, for example), then that could tick off Senate Democrats who could wonder why they had to take the vote they did. But if it simply reaffirms what Senate Democrats produced, then that would open up the White House to criticism that it’s not trying to find a way forward in resolving Washington’s budget impasse. We’ll find out what message the White House is trying to send on April 10.

*** Supreme Chaos? On Sunday, LA Times columnist Doyle McManus made a smart point analyzing last week’s Supreme Court oral arguments on gay marriage. “If the Supreme Court decides the two gay marriage cases it heard last week the way most court watchers believe it will, expect legal and political chaos,” he writes assuming that the court essentially punts Prop. 8 back to California. McManus then asks, “What happens to two gay men who marry in New York and then move to Salt Lake City? Will they still be married? If they have children, will the kids have two parents under Utah law? And will their federal benefits, such as survivors' Social Security benefits, travel with them, even though they've moved to a state where their marriage isn't valid? Will they file their federal tax returns jointly but state returns separately? And don't even think about the issue of divorce. This kind of legal patchwork virtually guarantees that politicians in states that don't recognize gay marriage will be debating and legislating the issue for years, making for an even more confusing situation. The ensuing chaos could harm more than just gay couples; the Republican Party stands to lose too.”

Larry Downing / Reuters

The Capitol Dome is seen on Capitol Hill, Nov. 9, 2012. To the left is the U.S. House of Representatives.

*** Boehner, RNC blast Young, forcing him to apologize: After Rep. Don Young (R-AK) referred to immigrant laborers as “wetbacks” and after his non-apology for those remarks (“I meant no disrespect”), Republican leaders denounced Young on Friday. “Congressman Young’s remarks were offensive and beneath the dignity of the office he holds,” House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement. “I don’t care why he said it – there’s no excuse and it warrants an immediate apology.” RNC Chairman Reince Priebus added, “The words used by Representative Young emphatically do not represent the beliefs of the Republican Party… Offensive language and ethnic slurs have no place in our public discourse.” Those statements prompted Young to offer an apology. "I apologize for the insensitive term I used during an interview in Ketchikan, Alaska.  There was no malice in my heart or intent to offend; it was a poor choice of words,” he said. The GOP criticism of Young, especially from the RNC, deserves a lot credit for a party trying to improve its standing with Latinos and minority voters. The rebuke was swift, and Young took a while to get the message. Perhaps he realized if he hadn’t issued the second -- and more complete -- apology there would have been calls for resignation?  

*** But is it the tone or the policy? Yet as Republicans try to improve their standing with Latinos, this LA Times piece is a sobering reminder for them. “Latinos, who have the lowest rates of health coverage in the country, are among the strongest backers of President Obama's healthcare law. In a recent national poll, supporters outnumbered detractors by more than 2 to 1. Latinos also overwhelmingly see guaranteeing healthcare as a core government responsibility, surveys show. Yet congressional Republicans continue to make repeal of the 2010 Affordable Care Act a top agenda item and have renewed calls for deep cuts in health programs such as Medicaid, which are very popular with Latinos.” And that raises this important question to consider: What’s more important for Republicans as they try to win over minority voters -- tone or policy?

*** SC-1 run-off takes place tomorrow: Tomorrow brings us the special GOP congressional primary run-off in South Carolina featuring former Gov. Mark Sanford vs. Curtis Bostic. And more and more, it looks like Sanford is well on his way toward winning the run-off. But does Sanford winning give Democrats a better-than-expected chance in the May 7 general? That’s a question that both Democrats and Republicans are asking themselves.

*** Senate Madness -- the 2^nd round begins: Our Senate Madness contest continues, this time with second-round match-ups from our 19^th Century and Mixed Era brackets. In the 19^th Century, it’s #1 Daniel Webster vs. #8 William Seward, #4 Stephen Douglas vs. #5 Sam Houston, #3 Charles Sumner vs. #11 James Buchanan, and #2 John C. Calhoun vs. #7 Thomas Hart Benton… In the Mixed Era, it’s #1 Henry Clay vs. #9 Sam Ervin, #4 Robert La Follette vs. #12 George Norris, #6 William Borah vs. #14 Scoop Jackson, and #2 Henry Cabot Lodge vs. #7 Arthur Vandenberg. Tomorrow, we’ll feature the 2^nd-round match-ups from the 20^th Century and Modern Era brackets.

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Northern Exposure: Young’s “wetback” remarks don’t help a GOP struggling with Latinos… Young issues statement: “I meant no disrespect”… Obama: “Shame on us if we’ve forgotten” Newtown… Obama talks the economy and infrastructure in Miami, FL at 2:00 pm ET… Surprising shifts in attitudes on same-sex marriage… This week’s 2014 and 2016 round-ups… And Senate Madness moves to the second round.

Becky Bohrer / AP

Rep. Don Young addresses a Choose Respect rally in front of the state Capitol on Thursday, March 28, 2013, in Juneau, Alaska.

*** Northern Exposure: For a Republican Party that desperately wants to improve its image among Latinos and is looking to pin any blame on President Obama for failing to achieve immigration reform, this news is an unwelcome development. In an interview this week with a local radio station, longtime Alaska Congressman Don Young, a Republican, referred to immigrant workers as "wetbacks," NBC’s Mike O’Brien reports. "My father had a ranch; we used to have 50-60 wetbacks to pick tomatoes," Young said, discussing the number of jobs that have been made irrelevant due to advances in automation. "It takes two people to pick the same tomatoes now. It’s all done by machine." Yes, this is just one congressman. And yes, the 79-old Young is known for saying what he thinks, as NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell noted on “TODAY.” But when you add this instance to all the other rhetoric we’ve heard in the immigration debate since 2005-2006, Young’s comments not only put pressure on the GOP to condemn them but also vow that they don’t happen again. Bottom line: Just like Todd Akin’s remarks on abortion and rape and just like the past dialogue on Obama’s citizenship, Young’s comments aren’t helping his party.

*** “We’ve got to stop being the stupid party”: Indeed, the episode reminds us of what Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) said at the RNC Winter Meeting in January: "We've got to stop being the stupid party. It's time for a new Republican Party that talks like adults. We had a number of Republicans damage the brand this year with offensive and bizarre comments. I'm here to say we've had enough of that."

*** “I meant no disrespect”: Young released a statement last night, saying that he “meant no disrespect” with his comments. "During a sit down interview with Ketchikan Public Radio this week, I used a term that was commonly used during my days growing up on a farm in Central California. I know that this term is not used in the same way nowadays and I meant no disrespect,” he said. "Migrant workers play an important role in America's workforce, and earlier in the said interview, I discussed the compassion and understanding I have for these workers and the hurdles they face in obtaining citizenship. America must once and for all tackle the issue of immigration reform."

*** Don’t you … forget about me: Meanwhile, words that Obama used yesterday signaled that the political momentum for achieving real reform on guns has stalled, at least when it comes to Congress. “I read an article in the news just the other day wondering is Washington -- has Washington missed its opportunity, because as time goes on after Newtown, somehow people start moving on and forgetting,” the president said at a White House event flanked by parents and victims of gun violence. “Shame on us if we've forgotten. I haven't forgotten those kids. Shame on us if we've forgotten.” There is still more than a chance that Senate Democrats are able to strike some sort of compromise with a handful of GOP senators on universal background checks. But there is a reason why Obama used the bully pulpit yesterday: The Democrats’ gun efforts have hit a wall in Congress.

*** I’m in Miami… : Today, Obama heads to Miami, FL to discuss the economy and infrastructure at 2:00 pm ET. Per the White House, the president “will tour a tunnel project before delivering remarks on ways to create jobs and strengthen the economy by investing in infrastructure.” RNC Chairman Reince Priebus issued this statement in advance on Obama’s Florida visit. “President Obama’s jaunt to Miami is nothing more than a PR stunt when we need real action to get people back to work,” Priebus said. “Another speech isn’t going to put food on the dinner table of a family trying to make ends meet in Obama’s economy.”

*** Surprising shifts in attitudes on same-sex marriage: Liberal-leaning groups have become the strongest supporters of same-sex marriage over the last decade, but there are some surprising shifts in attitudes from conservative-leaning groups as well, as one of us reported yesterday. In fact, the largest shift of any group has come from blue-collar workers. In the March 2004 NBC/WSJ poll, they were staunchly opposed (18% favor/80% oppose). In the latest NBC/WSJ poll to ask the question (December 2012), a plurality blue-collar workers said they were in favor of letting same-sex couples marry by a 47%/43% margin. That’s a 66-point net change. A majority of voters 65 and older are and people who live in the South are still opposed, but they have become far less opposed, shifting by 47 points and 43 points, respectively. President Obama’s support for same-sex marriage appears to have had a big impact on left-leaning groups, particularly African-American voters, who went from a majority opposing (32%/53%) in just October 2009 to a majority in favor (51%/37%). And perhaps most surprisingly, there’s been no distinction in increase of support by political party. Despite Democrats overwhelmingly favoring same-sex marriage and Republicans being two-thirds against, Democrats, Republicans, and independents have increased their support at the same rate over the past decade. Democrats have become more favorable by 39 points, Republicans 38 points, and independents 36 points.

*** This week’s 2016 round-up: On Monday, Sen. Marco Rubio delivered a hawkish defense/military speech in Kentucky (which happens to be Sen. Rand Paul’s home state)… Both Rubio and Paul have threatened to filibuster the Democratic-backed gun legislation moving to the Senate floor next month… Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is writing a book … And New Jersey Chris Christie has a 70% approval rating, per a Quinnipiac poll.

*** This week’s 2014 round-up: And as a bonus, here was this week’s 2014 activity: On Tuesday, Tim Johnson (D-SD) said he wouldn’t seek re-election next year… On Wednesday, Democrat Ashley Judd said she was taking a pass on challenging Mitch McConnell in Kentucky… Also, Rep. Steve King (R-IA) says he’s leaning toward a Senate bid, per the Des Moines Register… And Congressman Phil Gingrey became the latest Republican to jump into Georgia’s open Senate contest.

*** Senate Madness -- results from yesterday’s contests: In the 19^th Century bracket, Charles Sumner and James Buchanan advanced… In the 20^th Century bracket, John Stennis upset Barry Goldwater, and Mike Mansfield beat Claude Pepper… In the Modern Era, Jesse Helms and Joe Biden moved on… And in the Mixed Era, Scoop Jackson and William Borah advanced.

*** Senate Madness -- next week’s match ups: Our second round begins next week, and we have some intriguing match ups: #5 Sam Houston vs. #4 Stephen Douglas (19^th Century); #10 William Fulbright vs. #2 Everett Dirksen (20^th Century); #1 Ted Kennedy vs. #8 Robert Byrd and Joe Biden #11 vs. #3 Jesse Helms (Modern Era); and #7 Arthur Vandenberg vs. #2 Henry Cabot Lodge (Mixed Era).

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Obama jumps back into gun debate with 11:40 am ET White House event… Obama, bipartisan group still optimistic on immigration reform… Could social conservatives bolt the GOP over gay marriage?... Big news out of Boston -- Menino won’t seek re-election as mayor… Judd takes a pass on KY SEN run… And more Senate Madness!

Larry Downing / Reuters

Vice President Joe Biden listens as President Barack Obama talks in the Oval Office of the White House, March 27, 2013.

*** Obama jumps back into the gun debate: With some GOP senators vowing to filibuster the legislation coming to the floor next month and with some analysts saying that reformers have already lost, President Obama today steps back into the gun debate with an event at the White House at 11:40 am ET. Per the White House, Obama will stand with mothers, law-enforcement officials, and Vice President Biden in urging Congress to take action on the upcoming Senate legislation, which includes universal background checks. As we have written before, those checks -- supported overwhelmingly in public opinion polls -- will ultimately define success or failure for gun-control advocates. Democrats, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer, are trying to get Republicans to back some type of compromise on background checks, given that the filibuster threat means 60 votes will be needed to even begin considering the legislation. That’s why Michael Bloomberg’s Mayors Against Illegal Guns is airing TV ads in key states to also apply pressure. Meanwhile, Politico reports that Sen. Chuck Grassley, the top GOP lawmaker on the Senate Judiciary Committee, is drafting his own Republican gun bill (without background checks), which “could further complicate what will already be a difficult lift for Democrats and the White House.”

*** Obama, bipartisan group still optimistic on immigration reform: While Obama uses the bully pulpit today on guns, yesterday he used it on immigration by granting interviews to the top Spanish-language TV news outlets. “If we have a bill introduced at the beginning of next month -- as these senators indicate it will be -- then I'm confident that we can get it done certainly before the end of the summer,” Obama told Telemundo regarding the Senate bipartisan activity on immigration, per NBC’s Carrie Dann. “I'm optimistic,” he added. “I've always said that if I see a breakdown in the process, that I've got my own legislation. I'm prepared to step in. But I don't think that's going to be necessary. I think there's a commitment among this group of Democratic and Republican senators to get this done.” Speaking of that bipartisan group senators, four of them (Schumer, John McCain, Jeff Flake, and Michael Bennet) held a press conference yesterday in Arizona, where they also expressed optimism. “I’d say we are 90 percent there,” Schumer said, according to Roll Call. “We have a few little problems to work on; we’ve been on the phone all day talking to our other four colleagues who aren’t here. McCain chimed in: “Nobody is going to be totally happy with this legislation -- no one will be because we are having to make compromises, and that’s what makes for good legislation. It’s compromise that brings everybody together.”

*** Could social conservatives bolt the GOP over gay marriage? Over the past week, we’ve noted the relative silence from GOP lawmakers when it comes to the gay-marriage cases that the Supreme Court considered on Tuesday and Wednesday. The reason for the silence is easy to understand: Public opinion no longer appears to be on their side. The question is whether that silence could alienate social conservatives, a key part of the Republican Party’s base. Some aren’t too happy. “The silence was absolutely deafening and very disappointing to the millions of value voters that are in the party,” Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kan., told National Journal. And former Arkansas Gov. (and presidential candidate) Mike Huckabee warned that evangelicals could bolt the GOP if it eventually supports gay marriage. "They might. And if they do, they're going to lose a large part of their base because evangelicals will take a walk," he said in an interview. But writing for the New York Times, Tom Edsall doubts that social conservatives would bolt. “[T]he Republican Party can afford to marginalize Tony Perkins and other Christian right leaders because evangelical social conservatives, who make up more than a third of the Republican electorate, are not going to vote Democratic. Nor are they going to join an exodus to a third party. Rush Limbaugh to the contrary, they won’t stay home either.”

*** Big news out of Boston -- Menino won’t seek re-election as mayor: “Mayor Thomas M. Menino will announce at a Faneuil Hall event Thursday afternoon that he will not seek a sixth term in office, say officials familiar with his decision,” the Boston Globe writes. “Menino arrived at his decision late last week and reconsidered it for the last several days to be sure he felt comfortable following through, the ­officials said.” The Globe on a possible reason for his decision not to run: In recent months, Menino has endured a string of maladies that left him hospitalized for eight weeks at the end of last year. He was initially diagnosed with blood clots and a ­severe respiratory infection, and doctors later determined he fractured a vertebra and has Type 2 diabetes.” By the way, this means three of the country’s biggest cities -- New York, LA, Boston -- will all have new mayors this year. Menino’s announcement, per NBC affiliate WHDH, will take place at 4:00 pm ET. 

*** Judd takes a pass on KY Senate race: And in another announcement of not running, we learned yesterday that Ashley Judd is taking a pass on challenging Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. The biggest result from that announcement is that it denies the news media from making it the most-watched Senate contest in the country (due to Judd’s celebrity and McConnell’s position as GOP Senate leader). Democrats are now turning their hopes to Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, but we’re not so sure that she -- or another other Democrat -- will have a better chance of defeating McConnell in 2014, despite his underwhelming poll numbers. After all, Mitt Romney got more than 60% of the presidential vote in Kentucky in 2012, and that was a Democratic year. Democrats winning gubernatorial contests in Kentucky is one thing; winning Senate contests in the state is another.

*** Senate Madness -- results from yesterday’s contests: In the 19^th Century region, Stephen Douglas and Sam Houston advanced… So did John Sherman Cooper and Richard Russell in the 20^th Century region… In the Modern Era region, Ed Brooke upset Strom Thurmond and Hubert Humphrey also advanced… And in the Mixed Era region, Robert La Follette and George Norris moved on. See here and here for the results.

*** Senate Madness -- today’s first-round match ups: These are our final first-round contests. In our #3 and #14 seed match-ups, it’s Charles Sumner vs. Franklin Pierce (19^th Century), Barry Goldwater vs. John Stennis (20^th), Jesse Helms vs. Ted Stevens (Modern Era), and Hiram Johnson vs. Scoop Jackson (Mixed). And in the #6 and #11 seeds, it’s Jefferson Davis vs. James Buchanan (19^th), Claude Pepper vs. Mike Mansfield (20^th), Howard Baker vs. Joe Biden (Modern), and William Borah vs. Reed Smoot (Mixed).

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