Will Israel’s strikes in Syria spur U.S. involvement?... On that “red line” and how Libya (and other conflicts) has shaped the administration’s thinking on Syria… Recapping Obama’s Ohio State commencement speech… Mark-up time for the “Gang of Eight” immigration legislation… Wrapping up the NRA conference… WaPo poll: Cuccinelli leads McAuliffe… Remember, candidates matter… Does Sanford’s GOP base show up tomorrow?… Steve King passes on IA SEN bid… And Jessica Taylor’s early look at the Top 10 House races to flip in 2014.

Uriel Sinai / Getty Images

Israeli Merkava tanks participate in a drill near the border with Syria at the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on May 6, 2013.

*** Will Israel’s strikes in Syria spur U.S. involvement? The Washington Post on the weekend’s biggest news: “Israel’s reported airstrikes in Syria — and the threat of a retaliatory strike by the Syrian government — are likely to accelerate the decision-making of the Obama administration, which was already moving toward a sharp escalation of U.S. involvement in the two-year-old crisis. Senior officials said the deployment of U.S. troops to Syria remains unlikely, but they have indicated that a decision will come within weeks on options ranging from the supply of weapons to the Syrian rebels to the use of U.S. aircraft and missiles to ground President Bashar al-Assad’s air power by destroying planes, runways and missile sites inside Syria.” As NBC’s Andrea Mitchell noted on NBC’s “Weekend Nightly News,” Israel used American-made weapons and most likely had U.S. intelligence support to strike those Syrian targets. And, in an interview with Telemundo while the president was in Latin American, President Obama made it clear that the U.S. supports what he sees as Israel’s right to defend itself from what could be game-changing weapons. But remember, Israel is focused on what is essentially a side conflict with Syria, and that is Assad’s support of Hezbollah.

*** Red lines (don’t, don’t do it): On Sunday, the New York Times reported that administration officials realize the president’s previous “red line” comment on Syria -- which he made to one of your authors during an Aug. 2012 press conference -- was a mistake. That’s something we’ve reported on, but the Times goes into more detail: “‘The idea was to put a chill into the Assad regime without actually trapping the president into any predetermined action,’ said one senior official, who, like others, discussed the internal debate on the condition of anonymity. But ‘what the president said in August was unscripted,’ another official said. Mr. Obama was thinking of a chemical attack that would cause mass fatalities, not relatively small-scale episodes like those now being investigated, except the ‘nuance got completely dropped.’” Georgetown’s Daniel Byman argues that presidents should draw “red lines” that the U.S. will tolerate. “The muddle over the red line on Syria’s chemical weapons should make the Obama administration and its successors think twice before issuing similar public threats without considering what happens if the red line is breached or if an adversary continues committing atrocities that fall short of the line.

*** How Libya (and other conflicts) has shaped the administration’s thinking on Syria: The administration is leery of being pushed into doing something big in Syria too soon. Look for incremental ramping up, including direct arming of the rebels and continued diplomatic efforts to get Putin off of Assad’s side. One thing that colors the Obama administration’s decision-making in all of this is Libya. As “clean” of an operation and intervention as it was, the instability there is very much on the forefront of the Obama administration’s mind. Who fills the vacuum? Watching this administration manage the Arab Spring, don’t overlook how each event has impacted a later decision (from Iran to Egypt to Libya to Yemen and Syria). The experience in one country has colored the decision making going forward.

*** Recapping Obama’s Ohio State commencement speech: President Obama’s commencement addresses are always interesting to watch/read, because they offer additional examples of how he views U.S. government and society. They become the windows to his core ideological beliefs which, believe it or not, he rarely actually talks about in public. And his commencement address at Ohio State University yesterday was no exception -- he talked about the importance of community (over individualism) and an engaged citizenry.  “In the aftermath of darkest tragedy [in Boston, Texas, and Connecticut], we have seen the American spirit at its brightest. We’ve seen the petty divisions of color, class, and creed replaced by a united urge to help… That’s what citizenship is. It’s the idea at the heart of our founding—that as Americans, we are blessed with God-given and inalienable rights, but with those rights come responsibilities—to ourselves, to one another, and to future generations.” More Obama: “I will ask you for two things: to participate, and to persevere. After all, your democracy does not function without your active participation. At a bare minimum, that means voting, eagerly and often. It means knowing who’s been elected to make decisions on your behalf, what they believe in, and whether or not they deliver.”  

*** Mark-up time: The Senate Judiciary Committee this week is slated to mark up -- that is, add amendments at the committee level -- to the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” immigration-reform legislation. Politico: “Foes and friends of reform are set to offer a slew of amendments to the mammoth immigration bill this week as the Senate Judiciary Committee begins to mark it up. But observers believe that between Democrats, who hold the majority on the committee, and the two Gang of Eight Republicans who wrote the bill, it will emerge from committee largely unscathed. ‘I suspect it’ll come back [from committee] with a 13-5 margin, and that’ll be a tremendous momentum going to the Senate floor,’ said Frank Sharry, executive director of the pro-reform group America’s Voice.” On “Meet the Press” yesterday, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Pat Leahy said, “I think the so-called ‘Gang of Eight,’ four Democrats, four Republicans, across the political spectrum, deserve an enormous amongst of credit for the work they've done. I met with them many times. And I think we can get it passed.

*** Wrapping up the NRA conference: NBC’s Tom Curry wrapped up Friday’s speeches at the National Rifle Association conference in Houston. Republicans -- including Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry -- “addressed the National Rifle Association’s annual meeting in Houston Friday, celebrating the defeat of gun legislation in the Senate, assailing the media, and offering a strong defense of the powerful lobbying organization,” Curry wrote. By the way, Politico reports how not a single Democrat spoke at last week’s NRA conference in Houston. The NRA -- the National Republican Association? It’s a concern some inside the organization have, and it’s why there have been so many mixed signals when it comes to where the NRA stood on certain issues, including expanded background checks. Some inside the NRA did want to work with their Democratic allies and forge some compromise (even if the NRA didn’t OFFICIALLY support it). These are folks who want the “R” in NRA to stand for “Rifle” and not “Republican.” But those folks have lost out as the NRA -- internally -- has become more partisan.

*** WaPo poll: Cuccinelli leads McAuliffe: As we and others have pointed out, this year’s Virginia gubernatorial race is a contest between two flawed candidates. But Ken Cuccinelli (R) has always had one advantage over Terry McAuliffe (D): He has a base, while his Democratic opponent doesn’t -- at least not yet. And that edge is evident in a new Washington Post poll, which has Cuccinelli ahead by five points, 46%-41%. “Among all registered voters, [Cuccinelli is] backed by 95 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of conservatives and 62 percent among white men. By contrast, compared with Obama’s win seven months ago, McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman, is badly underperforming among key Democratic constituencies he would need to prevail — young voters, women, African Americans and those in the vote-rich areas of Northern Virginia.” The good news for McAuliffe? The poll found that barely 10 percent say they are following the campaign ‘very closely’ and that nearly half of the electorate says they’re either undecided or could change their minds.” Neither party is happy about its standard-bearer, but Cuccinelli is giving the GOP establishment a reason to believe since he’s executing a smart campaign so far. McAuliffe has work to do to get the Democratic establishment comfortable again

*** Another VA GOV poll coming out on Wednesday: By the way, there will be another poll coming out on the Cuccinelli-McAuliffe -- NBC/Marist surveys on Virginia and New Jersey, which we’ll unveil on Wednesday morning on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown.”

*** Remember, candidates matter: Given the Washington Post poll, tomorrow’s special election in South Carolina, and the tighter-than-expected special Senate race in Massachusetts, it’s always important to remember this political truism: Candidates and campaigns matter. In Virginia, both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe are flawed, but which one has bigger flaws and which one is running a better campaign? In South Carolina, the only reason why the contest in this GOP-leaning district is competitive is due to Republican Mark Sanford’s past baggage. And in Massachusetts, one candidate right now is getting the buzz (Republican Gabriel Gomez), while the other hasn’t run a competitive race in a LONG, LONG time (Ed Markey).

*** Does Sanford’s GOP base show up tomorrow? Speaking of tomorrow’s special election in South Carolina, the Washington Post’s Cillizza sees Mark Sanford as the candidate with the momentum. “In conversations with Democratic and Republican strategists closely following the special election set for Tuesday in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, the consensus is that the former governor, not businesswoman (and sister of Stephen Colbert) Elizabeth Colbert Busch, is the candidate gaining momentum in the race’s final 48 hours.” The question we have is whether base Republicans show up for Sanford. That’s going to be the difference between him winning and losing.

*** King passes on IA SEN race: On Friday, Rep. Steve King (R-IA) became the latest Republican to say “no” to running for Iowa’s open Senate seat. “The best tool we have now is the majority in the U.S. House which functions mostly to keep the Leftist genie in the bottle. I cannot, in good conscience, turn my back on the destiny decisions of Congress today in order to direct all my efforts to a Senate race for next year, while hoping to gain the leverage to put the genie back in the bottle in 2015,” he said in a statement. And that raises the question: Just who will Republicans get to run in a contest that’s VERY IMPORTANT to their chances of winning a Senate majority in 2014?

*** Ten House races to watch for ’14: Finally, don’t miss Jessica Taylor’s very early look at the 10-top House seats likely to flip in 2014.

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And we’re off: Look at all of today’s (and this month’s) 2016 activity… Rubio takes incoming from the right and responds… Is Biden a 2016 long shot? Only if Hillary runs…. Hillary, Christie headline Clinton Global Initiative gathering in Chicago next month… Our weekly 2016 roundup… April jobs report: 165,000 jobs created, unemployment rate falls to 7.5% (and check out the upward revisions)… Previewing Obama’s speech in Mexico City… And a Senate race watch.

*** And we’re off: Yes, President Obama’s second term is just over 100 days old. And, yes, the 2014 midterms are still a whopping 18 months from now. But like it or not, the early jockeying, traveling, and speechifying for 2016 is now well under way. Tonight, both Vice President Biden and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) deliver remarks in Columbia, SC (Biden addresses the state Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner beginning at 7:30 pm ET, while Cruz speaks to the South Carolina GOP’s Silver Elephant event). Also today, Cruz, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and other Republicans give speeches at the National Rifle Association’s confab in Houston, TX. Meanwhile, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) finds himself on the cover of National Review (although not in a flattering way), and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is on the cover of the Washington Monthly (with the title: “Should This Man Be President?”). Then are the other 2016-related events later this month: Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) speaks in Iowa (on May 10) and New Hampshire (May 20); Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker heads to the Hawkeye State (May 23); and Cruz addresses the New York Republican Party (May 29).

Jason Reed / Reuters

Senator Marco Rubio, R-Fla., part of the Senate's "Gang on Eight", speaks during a news briefing on Capitol Hill, April 18, 2013.

*** Rubio takes incoming from the right -- and responds: Speaking of the new National Review cover -- entitled “Rubio’s Folly” -- here’s the article by immigration-reform opponent Mark Krikorian: After the 2012 election, “the Republican establishment turns its hopeful eyes, once again, to so-called comprehensive immigration reform. The same senators who pushed such a bill in 2007, prominently including Republicans John McCain and Lindsey Graham and Democrat Chuck Schumer, are at it again. They have devised a plan that would ease the path to legality for illegal immigrants while making some gestures toward enforcement. But a new element this time around is Marco Rubio.” But the junior Florida senator has a response of sorts in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, defending the pillars of comprehensive immigration reform but also arguing that any shortcomings to the “Gang of Eight” legislation can be improved. “Since my colleagues and I introduced immigration legislation, intense public scrutiny has helped identify shortcomings and unintended consequences that need to be addressed. Many concerned citizens have gone a step further and offered specific ideas to improve it. This kind of constructive criticism is a positive force that should always be welcomed in the political process.”

*** Cover photo of Rubio edits out other Republicans: As an aside to that National Review cover of Rubio, which shows him surrounded by Sens. John McCain and Chuck Schumer, the liberal site Talking Points Memo has this scoop: “The photo on the cover appears to be stripped down version … missing some unlikely attendees at the event. Look closer over Rubio's shoulder and you'll spot anti-tax crusader and right-wing hero Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.” The full photo also includes GOP Sen. Jeff Flake.

*** Is Biden a 2016 long shot? Only if Hillary runs: Also today, with Biden traveling to South Carolina, the Washington Post runs a pretty tough piece on the current vice president. The title: “Biden ponders a 2016 bid, but a promotion to the top job seems to be a long shot.” From the article: “Biden clearly has the experience and gravitas to ascend to the presidency, but many Democrats say he may have been in Washington too long (since 1973) to win an election. He is President Obama’s governing partner yet is rarely seen as Obama’s heir apparent.” We agree that Biden is the longshot (and in fact most likely to run) if Hillary Clinton gets in the race. But if she doesn’t? It would be hard to call him a long shot, at least in a Democratic primary. Yes, Hillary’s absence would likely create a more crowded Democratic field -- with O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, and others getting into the race. Yet it would be a leap to label Biden a long shot in that competition. Who would have a stronger base than Biden (especially if Obama endorses him)? Who would have better name ID? Of course, this is the reason why so many Democrats are pining for Hillary to run in 2016: The rest of the field isn’t as strong. But it’s not a given -- at least right now -- she gets in the race.

*** Hillary, Christie to headline Clinton Global Initiative gathering: As for Hillary, Politico reports that she and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will headline Bill Clinton’s Clinton Global Initiative event in Chicago on June 13-14. “The focus of the gathering … is on speeding up the United States' economic recovery and the nation's long-term outlook. But the short-term political outlook will be equally interesting, given that Clinton and Christie top most 2016 polls in their respective parties. It marks the first time Hillary Clinton will appear at CGI America, which has become a signature event in her husband's post-White House portfolio. The event will also feature Chelsea Clinton, Clinton ally and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and a slew of business, labor and government officials.”

*** Our weekly 2016 roundup: And here’s a look at all the other 2016 news this week: Two polls showed (here and here) Hillary Clinton blowing away the competition, and EMILY’s List wants her to run… Andrew Cuomo signed a book deal to write his memoir, set to come out next year.  “This is a private book, not a government book,” he insists. But he added, “It’s going to be a book about my experiences, my thoughts, my thoughts about government and the role of government.”… Martin O’Malley signed a death-penalty repeal, making Maryland the 18^th state to abolish the death penalty…. In the Quinnipiac poll, Marco Rubio narrowly leads the GOP with 18%, followed by Jeb Bush 16%, Chris Christie 14%, Rick Santorum 9%.... National Review reported that Ted Cruz is likely to run for president… Rand Paul endorsed Mark Sanford… And Chris Christie’s out with his first ad of his reelection.

*** April jobs report -- 165,000 jobs created, unemployment rate ticks down to 7.5%: In non-2016 news, the April jobs report shows a big improvement from last month’s numbers. The AP: “U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs in April, and hiring was much stronger in the previous two months than first thought. The gains trimmed the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 7.5 percent. The Labor Department report showed the job market is improving despite higher taxes and government spending cuts. In addition to the April gains, the government said employers added 138,000 jobs in March and 332,000 in February. That's 114,000 more over the two months.” Read that February number again: 332,000 jobs.

*** Previewing Obama’s speech in Mexico: NBC’s Kristen Welker report that President Obama's speech at the Anthropology Museum in Mexico City at 10:15 am ET will be equally aimed at a U.S. audience, according to a White House official. Obama’s hope is to recast many Americans' impression of Mexico as a poor country plagued by a violent drug war. The president is expected to say that while Mexico still struggles with those problems, it is also a country that has seen major economic strides in recent years.  In addition, Obama's larger theme will be that comprehensive immigration reform will be important to enhancing both economies and will be important for US-Mexico trade, which totaled $500 billion dollars last year. 

*** Senate race watch: And via your authors and our colleague Jessica Taylor, here’s some Senate race-related news to watch: First Lady Michelle Obama will help raise money for Rep. Ed Markey May 29, in what will be her first fundraising effort after the November 2012 election… “U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa of Hawaii announced her candidacy for U.S. Senate on Thursday, setting up a primary showdown that almost certainly will be the state’s marquee race next year,” AP writes… Republicans are still having a difficult time finding a Senate candidate in Iowa… And in Georgia, GOP Rep. Jack Kingston became the third House member to throw his hat into the growing Senate primary, joining his fellow congressmen Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey.

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It takes two to make an agenda go right… Partisan gridlock is the norm during divided government… Polls: Boston bombings haven’t significantly impacted the immigration debate… Updated cabinet shuffle: Pritzker to Commerce, Froman to USTR… Under Pressure: Emily’s List unveils national campaign “to put a woman in the White House” (hint, hint, Hillary)… Tapping the brakes on the ’16 Cruz speculation… And Buzzfeed’s bomshell on Terry McAuliffe. 

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, D-W.Va., left, and Sen. Patrick Toomey, R-Pa., arrive at a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, April 10, 2013, to announce that they have reached a bipartisan deal on expanding background checks to more gun buyers.

*** It takes two: For all the questions and scrutiny President Obama has recently received when it comes to his stalled agenda -- especially on the topics of budget and guns -- it’s important to quote the immortal philosopher MC Rob Base: It takes two to make a thing go right. And Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who partnered with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on the compromise background-check measure, admitted as much when explaining why that bipartisan gun-control amendment was defeated. "In the end it didn’t pass because we’re so politicized," Toomey told editors from Digital First Media in an interview published Wednesday by the Norristown Times Herald, per NBC’s Mike O’Brien. "There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it," Toomey added. That also was the conclusion a recent New York Times/CBS poll: Americans largely retreat to their partisan camps, even if they overwhelmingly support background checks or a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. “Yes, I believe the Republicans should have voted for background checks,” a respondent told the New York Times. “But it’s like marriage. You stick with your wife no matter what, and you don’t just ditch your political party on one issue.”

*** Partisan gridlock is the norm during divided government: Of course, this is hardly something that’s new when it comes to American politics. As one of us wrote yesterday, partisan gridlock -- even on what would seem the simplest of issues -- is the norm, particularly in times of divided government. The exceptions have come when at least one party has had an incentive to compromise. Think Bill Clinton signing welfare reform into law before his re-election, or the tax cuts under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush (who doesn't like tax cuts?), or maybe immigration reform this year. The exceptions have also come when it's an absolute necessity to compromise. Think the Social Security fix during the 1980s, the debt-ceiling deal in 2011, and the fiscal-cliff deal at the end of 2012. But that's about it under divided government. Conversely, the greatest legislative achievements have occurred when one party controls the White House and Congress -- usually by overwhelming numbers. In the 1930s, as Congress was passing Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, Democrats held between 69 and 75 Senate seats, as well as 300-plus House seats. In 1965, during Lyndon Johnson's Great Society, Democrats controlled 68 Senate and 290-plus House seats.

*** Polls: Boston bombings haven’t significantly impacted the immigration debate: So will immigration reform be one of those historic exceptions to gridlock during divided government? We won’t find out for sure until later this summer, but two new polls show that the Boston bombings haven’t significantly impacted the debate. Per a national Quinnipiac survey, 70% of registered voters said that the bombings haven’t changed their opinion about whether there should be a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. And a separate Pew poll finds that nearly six-in-10 (58%) see the bombings as mostly a separate issue from the immigration debate. That said, the same Pew survey shows that Republicans (46%) are more likely to say that bombings should be a factor in the debate than Democrats (33%) or independents (34%).

*** Updated cabinet shuffle -- Pritzker to Commerce, Froman to USTR: NBC’s Peter Alexander confirms that President Obama will name friend and donor Penny Pritzker to run the Commerce Department and international economics adviser Mike Froman to be his U.S. trade representative. Obama will make this announcement at 10:15 am ET before he departs on his trip to Mexico and Latin America. On that trip, Obama and Mexico President Pena Nieto hold a press conference at 5:10 pm ET, and they have a working dinner at 8:15 pm ET. By the way, here is First Read’s updated look at the president’s second-term cabinet.

John Kerry at State (replaced Hillary Clinton)
Chuck Hagel at Defense (replaced Leon Panetta)
Jack Lew at Treasury (replaced Tim Geithner)
Sally Jewell at Interior (replaced Ken Salazar)
Sylvia Burwell at OMB (replaced acting director Jeffrey Zients)
Lisa Jackson at EPA (Gina McCarthy nominated)
Steven Chu at Energy (Ernest Moniz nominated)
Hilda Solis at Labor (Tom Perez nominated)
Ray LaHood at Transportation (Anthony Foxx nominated)
Commerce (N/A) (Pritzker nominated)
U.S. Trade Representative (Froman nominated)

And here are the cabinet secretaries who are remaining:
Janet Napolitano (DHS)
Arne Duncan (Education)
Tom Vilsack (Agriculture)
Eric Holder (Justice)
Kathleen Sebelius (HHS)
Shaun Donovan (HUD)
Eric Shinseki (Veterans Affairs)

*** Under Pressure: At 9:30 am ET, the Democratic abortion-rights group Emily’s List is holding an event in DC today to unveil its national campaign “to put a woman in the White House.” This campaign includes Emily’s List polling that shows battleground-state voters are ready for a female president; a six-figure digital buy to reach women on popular online sites; and a new “Madam President” video. And it all has an obvious message: Hillary Clinton -- hint, hint -- we really want you to run for president. And Emily’s List President Stephanie Schriock says as much in a CNN op-ed tied to today’s rollout. “So who will it be? There's one name on all our minds: Hillary Clinton. Voters across the country are excited about her possible run. But if she decides not to run, we still have a deep bench of incredible female leaders to choose from.” And that’s perhaps the best way to view all the Hillary-related activity, whether it’s Emily’s List or that Draft Hillary campaign. These folks are putting pressure (gently but obviously) on the former secretary of state to make a 2016 bid. And by the way, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton blowing away the potential Democratic field. She gets 65% of Democratic voters, Vice President gets 13%, and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo gets 4%. 

*** Tapping the brakes on the Cruz speculation: In other 2016 news, National Review’s Robert Costa yesterday wrote a piece noting that freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “is considering a presidential run, according to his friends and confidants.” But as our colleague Mike O’Brien has noted, you might want to tap on those 2016 brakes -- given the conservative competition Cruz would face, concerns by the GOP establishment, and the fact that he was born in Canada. While Costa reports that Cruz “isn’t worried that his birth certificate will be a problem,” we’re not so sure. Here’s what the Constitution says: “No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President.” Is a natural-born citizen someone who was born abroad (in Canada)? Is it someone who was born to just one parent who’s a citizen? Bottom line: It all comes down to how courts define “natural born.”

*** Buzzfeed on McAuliffe: Lastly, just after Terry McAuliffe released this warm and fuzzy TV ad showing him, among other things, in the delivery room when one of his children was born came this Buzzfeed bombshell: “McAuliffe also wrote about the birth of his children in his 2007 book What A Party, noting on one instance he left his wife at the hospital to attend a party for Washington Post reporter Lloyd Grove before the birth of his daughter Sarah.” Ouch. This has become the theme of the McAuliffe-Cuccinelli gubernatorial race in Virginia: Every day, there’s an issue that seems to hurt one of these candidates. For McAuliffe, this piece of news is hurtful, because it shows that he will have the difficult task of shaking the persona that he’s a DC-establishment operator -- something that might be easier to shake if he were running in a state without a ton of Beltway media living there.

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Battle lines are already drawn in Markey-Gomez race… Specter of Scott Brown hovers over the contest (and why that’s probably a good thing for Democrats)… Why Dems are favored to hold onto the MA SEN seat: Markey’s vote total (309,487) was almost DOUBLE the votes cast in the entire Republican contest (188,375)… Obama yesterday: My job isn’t to make Congress behave… POTUS on health-care implementation: It’s already taken place for 85%-90% of Americans… Newtown victim confronts Ayotte at NH town hall… And the McDonnell-Star Scientific story isn’t helpful to Cuccinelli.

*** Battle lines are drawn in Massachusetts: Well, we now have the match-up for the June 25 general election to fill the U.S. Senate seat that John Kerry vacated to become secretary of state. In the Democratic primary last night, Congressman Ed Markey easily defeated fellow Congressman Stephen Lynch, 57%-43%. And in the GOP race, Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Gabriel Gomez triumphed over former U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan, 51%-36%; state Rep. Dan Winslow got 13%. The battle lines in the Markey-vs.-Gomez contest are already drawn. Markey is out to associate Gomez -- who has called himself “an independent voice” and “a new kind of Republican” -- with the GOP and the Tea Party. "This campaign is about standing up to the special interests and the extreme Tea Party Republicans who want to stop progress and send our country in the wrong direction,” Markey said last night. Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic Super PAC, has labeled Gomez “Mitt Romney Jr.” (because of his career in private equity and because of the former Romney staffers working for him).

*** Specter of Scott Brown hovers over the race (and that’s probably a good thing for Democrats): Meanwhile, Gomez is going after Markey for his 37 years in Washington. "I want to take you back in time. The year was 1976; 37 years ago. Gerald Ford was president. Al Gore had not yet invented the Internet… That was a lifetime ago. Me, I was just playing little league baseball. And that was when Ed Markey first got elected to Congress," the Republican said last night, per NBC’s Andrew Rafferty. (The National Republican Senatorial Committee even has a web video on “Ed Markey’s Worst Hits from the ‘70s, ‘80s, ‘90s, and Today.”) For Democrats, the specter of Scott Brown -- who won the special Senate election in Massachusetts in 2010 -- is hovering over this race. But don’t forget that Brown’s victory was a perfect-storm event: It took place at the height of unpopularity over the health-care legislation moving through Congress, the unemployment rate was near 10%, and no one in Massachusetts Democratic Party circles saw Brown’s victory coming. Three years later, none of those factors have that same intensity, including the fact that Democrats won’t be taking the race for granted.

Steven Senne / AP

Republican candidate for the Senate Gabriel Gomez gives a thumbs up as he takes to the stage next to his daughter Olivia, 13, left, before addressing an audience with a victory speech at a watch party, in Cohasset, Mass., Tuesday, April 30, 2013.

*** Numbers to explain why Gomez is the underdog in this blue state: Still, here’s a little more perspective for the June 25 general election: Markey’s vote total (309,487) was almost DOUBLE the votes cast in the entire Republican contest (188,375). Heck, Lynch by himself got more votes (229,594) than the entire GOP field combined (188,375). By the way, MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown” today has interviews with both Markey and Gomez.

*** Obama: My job isn’t to make Congress behave: At his White House press conference yesterday, President Obama received questions on a number of topics -- Syria, the Guantanamo Bay detainees, the Boston bombing, and even the NBA’s Jason Collins announcing he’s gay. But to us, what stood out were the president’s comments blaming Congress at almost every turn, no matter the topic. From guns to GITMO, to health care and of course the sequester and the budget. “You seem to suggest that somehow these folks over there have no responsibilities, and that my job is to somehow get them to behave,” he said. “That’s their job. They’re elected -- members of Congress are elected in order to do what’s right for their constituencies and for the American people.” He went on to say, “The only way the problem does get fixed is if both parties sit down and they say:  How are we going to make sure that we're reducing our deficit sensibly?” And there was this: “There are common-sense solutions to our problems right now. I cannot force Republicans to embrace those common-sense solutions. I can urge them to. I can put pressure on them. I can rally the American people around those common-sense solutions. But ultimately, they, themselves, are going to have to say, we want to do the right thing.” It’s not new that the president is frustrated by Congress. The question is whether voters are in such agreement with him that they get a throw-the-bums-out mentality.

*** POTUS on health care: Implementation of the health-law has already taken place for most Americans: The other interesting answer Obama gave yesterday was on health care. Republicans have done a very good job of arguing that implementing the new health-care law is so big, so complicated. And retiring Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus only gave them more fodder when he called the implementation a potential “train wreck.” But the president tried to knock that perception down yesterday. “For the 85% to 90% of Americans who already have health insurance, this thing has already happened.  And their only impact is that their insurance is stronger, better, more secure than it was before -- full stop.  That’s it. They don’t have to worry about anything else.” He added, “So all the implementation issues that are coming up are implementation issues related to that small group of people, 10 to 15 percent of Americans -- now, it’s still 30 million Americans, but a relatively narrow group -- who don’t have health insurance right now.” Until Oct. 1 (the day enrollment for health care begins), the White House and Republicans are going to be battling over trying to define the implementation. Republicans are essentially using the same playbook from 2010, but instead of attacking health care for the number of pages that are in the bill, they will attempt to stoke fear by attacking the complexities of the system. The question is whether the White House has learned their lesson from 2010.

*** Newtown victim confronts Ayotte at town hall: The town halls are back -- this time on the issue of guns and gun control. NBC’s Kasie Hunt reports on Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s town hall yesterday in New Hampshire: “Bringing the national gun debate to a tiny New England town on Tuesday, the daughter of the slain principal of Sandy Hook Elementary confronted Sen. Kelly Ayotte at the lawmaker’s first town hall meeting since she voted against expanded background checks on all commercial gun sales… ‘You had mentioned that day the burden on owners of gun stores that the expanded background checks would harm. I am just wondering why the burden of my mother being gunned down in the halls of her elementary school isn't more important than that,’ said Lafferty, whose mother Dawn Hochsprung was gunned down by Newtown shooter Adam Lanza.” While some might dismiss these town halls as nothing but activists from the outside taking over -- tell that to the Democrats in 2009 who were arguing the same thing. Grass-tops can start a real grassroots fire.

*** McDonnell-Star Scientific story isn’t helpful to Cuccinelli: Also yesterday, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) “denied any wrongdoing in his business dealings with a family friend and donor, saying Tuesday that an FBI probe into that relationship does not impair his ability to serve as governor,” NBC’s Mike O’Brien writes. “I think it’s important for the people of Virginia to know nothing has been done with regard to my relationship with [Jonnie] Williams or his company, Star Scientific, to give any kind of special benefits to him or his company or, frankly, any other person or any other company during the time that I’ve been governor,” McDonnell said on Washington’s WTOP radio. And on the allegation that Williams paid the $15,000 catering bill for the wedding of McDonnell’s daughter: “I made the determination -- and I believe it was correct -- that it was a gift to my daughter, and therefore under the current laws it did not need to be disclosed.” Folks, this isn’t good news for GOP gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli -- due to his own ties to Star Scientific and the fact that this McDonnell/Star Scientific story isn’t going away anytime soon.

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This story was originally published on Wed May 1, 2013 9:11 AM EDT

Measuring the first 100 days of Obama’s second term… The president held a news conference at 10:15 am ET… An extraordinary last 12 months when it comes to gay rights… It’s Primary Day in Massachusetts’ special Senate race; polls close at 8:00 pm ET…  Sanford and Colbert Busch took off their gloves in last night’s debate… Jessica Taylor on new Dem ad hitting Sanford over his affair… NYT/CBS poll: 62% oppose intervention in Syria… And FBI examining Bob McDonnell’s relationship with donor?

Jacquelyn Martin / AP

President Barack Obama gestures as he announces he will nominate Charlotte, N.C. Mayor Anthony Foxx to succeed Ray LaHood as Transportation Secretary, Monday, April 29, 2013, in the East Room of the White House.

*** Measuring the first 100 days of Obama’s second term: You might not have been keeping track, but we’ve now reached the 100-day mark in President Obama’s second term. And possibly to mark the occasion, the president held a news conference at 10:15 am ET. Bloomberg’s Al Hunt makes a smart point about how the first 100 days of the second have fared. “The 100-day mark is a measure for first-term presidents, not re-elected ones. Yet the end of April is a propitious moment for an early evaluation of how President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are meeting the aspirations set out in January. The answer: Both are falling short.” Indeed, outside of immigration -- and make no mistake, that’s a pretty big exception -- politics seems about as divided as it did in 2011-2012.The budget talks are back to square one (and the sequester fight only seemed to exacerbate things). Passing gun control failed in the Senate. Achieving tax reform seems like a considerable reach. And to top it off, some Republicans are beginning to flex their muscles -- again -- when it comes to raising the debt ceiling. So the idea of the “fever” breaking that the president promised during the campaign has yet to come to fruition. Of course, presidencies (and especially second terms) aren’t defined by the first 100 days. But remember, unlike first terms, second terms (at least domestically) have a shorter shelf life.

*** An extraordinary last 12 months for gay rights: What’s remarkable -- politically -- about NBA basketball player Jason Collins’ announcement that he is gay is that caps an extraordinary 12 months when it comes to the gay rights movement and gay marriage specifically. As NBC’s Chris Donovan has pointed out, just think of what’s happened in the past year:

-- On “Meet the Press,” Vice President Biden announces he’s “comfortable” with gay marriage (May 6, 2012)
-- President Obama then comes out in support of it (May 9, 2012)
-- Obama’s second inaugural address contains this line: “Our journey is not complete until our gay brothers and sisters are treated
like anyone else under the law” (Jan. 20, 2013)
-- Numerous other politicians announce their support before and after the Supreme Court oral arguments on Prop. 8 and DOMA
-- Supreme Court hears the oral arguments in Prop. 8 and DOMA (March 26-27, 2013)
-- Rhode Island is on track to become 10th state approving gay marriage (April 2013)
-- Jason Collins becomes the first male athlete in a major sport to announce he’s gay (April 29, 2013)

*** Three other points on Collins: We have three other points to make regarding the Jason Collins news. First, in the 20^th Century, sports often led the way on integration (think Jackie Robinson in baseball, African-American professional football players like Jim Brown in the 1950s and 1960s). But in this case, in the 21^st Century, sports was a lagging indicator. Indeed, 53% of the country in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll said they supported gay marriage before the first male athlete in a major sport announced he was gay. Second, don’t underestimate the impact that Obama’s support for gay marriage had on an African-American athlete coming out. (The president called Collins yesterday.) And third, given that Collins is now a 34-year-old journeyman center, there was a chance – before yesterday – that another team might NOT have signed him to play NBA basketball next year. Now? There will be a tremendous amount of pressure (applied by David Stern personally?) for NBA teams to sign him.

*** Primary Day in Massachusetts: If it’s a Tuesday, it means that some folks are out there casting ballots. And today, those folks are the voters in Massachusetts who are choosing party nominees to fill the U.S. Senate seat that John Kerry vacated to become secretary of state. In the special Democratic primary, Congressmen Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch are battling it out, and Markey remains the favorite. (The only question is how big a favorite is he.) Meanwhile, the Republican side features three candidates: Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Gabriel Gomez, former U.S. Attorney (and former acting ATF director) Mike Sullivan, and state Rep. Dan Winslow. Given his deep pockets, Gomez might give Republicans their best chance to compete in the June 25 general election. But also don’t forget that Gomez was the spokesman for the organization that accused Obama of politicizing the killing of Osama bin Laden. Polls close at 8:00 pm ET.

*** Sanford and Colbert Busch take off their gloves: Speaking of special elections, Republican Mark Sanford and Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch certainly made their only debate count last night in Charleston, SC. Colbert Busch whacked her GOP opponent for misusing taxpayer dollars, especially when traveling to Argentina. “When we’re looking at fiscal responsibility, it doesn’t mean you take the money we saved and leave the country for a personal purpose,” she said, per MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor. Sanford fought back by tying her to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and national Democrats. “It’s not believable to me that someone gives you a million dollars and not expect something in return,” he said. But Colbert Busch later responded, "No one tells me what to do, except the people of South Carolina's 1st Congressional District." Politico has more on the debate, which it said “laid bare their ideological differences on a range of issues. Sanford said he opposed the gun control bill that failed in the Senate recently calling for expanded background checks; Colbert said she backed it despite her belief in 2nd Amendment rights. Sanford said he would vote against the comprehensive immigration reform plan being pushed by the ‘Gang of Eight’; Colbert Busch favors it.”

*** New Dem ad explicitly hits Sanford over affair: Also in the Sanford-vs.-Colbert Busch race, Jessica Taylor reports on a new Democratic Super PAC TV ad hitting Sanford. The advertisement features a female GOP voter from the district slamming the former governor for his disappearance from the state while in office and the disclosure that he was having an affair with an Argentinian woman. “I used to be for Mark Sanford -- but not anymore,” says Jennifer Stark of Mount Pleasant, S.C. “He skipped town to be with his mistress on Father’s Day. Sanford even asked his wife for permission to have the affair, and wasted our taxpayer dollars on himself.” “I’m a Republican. But Mark Sanford just doesn’t share our values,” says Stark.

*** Six in 10 oppose U.S. intervention in Syria: Want another reason why the Obama administration is walking very carefully when it comes to Syria? According to a brand-new New York Times/CBS poll, 62% of Americans say the United States DOES NOT have a responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria.

*** FBI examining Bob McDonnell’s relationship with donor? Finally, this isn’t good news for the current GOP governor of Virginia, who just happens to be a 2016 presidential possibility.  “The FBI has begun examining the relationship between Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and his wife Maureen and the chief executive of a nutritional supplements manufacturer that is the subject of a federal investigation, two people with knowledge of the review said Monday,” the AP writes. “Federal authorities began questioning people close to the McDonnells as an outgrowth of a securities probe of Virginia-based Star Scientific Inc., said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because their roles in the case preclude them from speaking publicly. They said FBI agents have asked questions about gifts the McDonnells have received from company CEO Jonnie Williams and whether the Republican governor or his administration aided the company in return.”

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Washington taps the brakes on Syria… On implementing Obamacare… The FAA sequester fix -- Washington at its worst… Obama to nominate Anthony Foxx to be Transportation secretary… Sanford and Colbert Busch to debate tonight at 7:00 pm ET in South Carolina… And MA SEN primaries take place tomorrow.

George Ourfalian / Reuters

A general view shows damaged buildings in the old city of Aleppo April 29, 2013.

*** Tapping the brakes on Syria: Days after the Obama administration confirmed that Syria might have crossed President Obama’s red line -- using chemical weapons against its own people -- there’s collective agreement that something needs to be done. But there also seems to be collective agreement that the something needs to be small and limited, at least for now. On “Meet the Press” yesterday, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), one of Washington’s biggest hawks, called for arming the rebels in Syria, helping refugees, and securing the stockpiles of chemical weapons. But it also was notable what he DIDN’T CALL FOR. “[T]he worst thing the United States could do right now is put boots on the ground on Syria. That would turn the people against us,” he said. So as Obama seems to be trying to buy time, Washington appears to be giving him that. And here’s one of the reasons why: The rebels, as the New York Times wrote on Sunday, have ties to Al Qaeda. It’s a very tricky situation…

*** Implementing Obamacare: When it comes to implementing the new federal health-care law, Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus called it a “train wreck.” New York Times columnist David Brooks, citing supporters of the law, said that “things are going worse than expected.” And we have spoken with Democrats who are worried, too. But as Jon Cohn writes in the New Republic, none of this should be surprising: This is a complex process -- for the government, the states, and consumers. Yet among the Obama administration’s top concerns is ensuring that enough young men and women obtain insurance. (If the healthy uninsured 18 to 35 year olds don't sign up, the numbers don't work for anyone, for the government, for health insurance companies and for those of us who pay premiums.) And that was largely the pitch the president made at Planned Parenthood’s conference in DC last Friday. “So I’m here to also ask for your help, because we need to get the word out,” he said. “We need you to tell your patients, your friends, your neighbors, your family members what the health care law means for them. Make sure they know that if they don’t have health insurance, they’ll be able to sign up for quality, affordable insurance starting this fall in an online marketplace where private insurers will compete for their business. Make sure that they know that there are plans out there right now that cover the cost of contraceptive and preventive care free of charge.”

*** Washington at its worst: Also on Friday, Congress passed its legislative fix to prevent the air-traffic-controller furloughs under the so-called sequester. And in one single episode, it highlighted all of Washington’s problems. You had a divided and often-dysfunctional Congress -- which originally passed the sequester -- take extraordinary action ONLY after the airlines and business travelers complained about the flight delays. But the Congress didn’t do anything about the other budget cuts (to things like Head Start or the Meals on Wheels programs). Then you had a White House -- which signed the sequester into law -- give up its greatest piece of leverage in this debate and cave in its demand for a complete fix that includes additional tax revenue. Bottom line: This was Washington at its worst. And what’s an even bigger takeaway from the whole FAA fix? We are a long way away from a real budget fix. The idea of a grand bargain is as elusive today as it's ever been.

*** Obama nominates Foxx to head Transportation Department: As NBC has reported, President Obama today will nominate Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx to be his second-term Transportation secretary, replacing Ray LaHood. The White House event will take place at 2:10 pm ET. Meanwhile, the New York Times adds that the president “also appeared close to nominating Penny Pritzker, a hotel magnate, longtime friend and fund-raiser, as the next commerce secretary, and Michael Froman, his international economics adviser, as the United States trade representative, although neither nomination was scheduled to be announced on Monday.” So here is our updated look at Obama’s second-term cabinet:

John Kerry at State (replaced Hillary Clinton)
Chuck Hagel at Defense (replaced Leon Panetta)
Jack Lew at Treasury (replaced Tim Geithner)
Sally Jewell at Interior (replaced Ken Salazar)
Sylvia Burwell at OMB (replaced acting director Jeffrey Zients)
Lisa Jackson at EPA (Gina McCarthy nominated)
Steven Chu at Energy (Ernest Moniz nominated)
Hilda Solis at Labor (Tom Perez nominated)
Ray LaHood at Transportation (Anthony Fox nominated)
Commerce (N/A) (Pritzker appears to be the leading candidate)
U.S. Trade Representative (Froman appears to be the leading candidate)

And here are the cabinet secretaries who are remaining:

Janet Napolitano (DHS)
Arne Duncan (Education)
Tom Vilsack (Agriculture)
Eric Holder (Justice)
Kathleen Sebelius (HHS)
Eric Shinseki (Veterans Affairs)

*** Let’s get ready to rumble -- South Carolina style: A week before their general-election contest, Republican Mark Sanford and Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch will participate in their first debate. The AP: “The two meet Monday evening at The Citadel in a debate sponsored by the Patch news service, the South Carolina Radio Network and Charleston television station WCBD. The debate is being cablecast by C-SPAN. It's their first joint appearance in the campaign that started earlier when incumbent congressman Tim Scott was appointed to the state's vacant U.S. Senate seat.” The debate takes place at 7:00 pm ET.

*** Let’s get ready to rumble -- New England style: And the special Senate primaries take place tomorrow in Massachusetts. MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor recently examined the Democratic contest between Reps. Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch, especially in wake of the Boston Marathon bombing. And MSNBC’s Sarah B. Boxer looked at the Republican race featuring former U.S. Attorney Mike Sullivan, state Rep. Dan Winslow, and Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Gabriel Gomez.

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No good options when it comes to Syria… Jeffrey Goldberg: But not acting might be the worst option… Obama sells immigration reform at Bush library dedication… On the FAA fix: Business travelers of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your frequent-flyer miles!.... Our weekly 2016 round-up… Cuccinelli’s up on the air, while McAuliffe’s car company remains in the news… One camp is trying to be likeable (Cuccinelli’s), while the other camp isn’t (McAuliffe’s)... And “Meet” has John McCain and Tony Blair.

*** No good options when it comes to Syria: The Obama administration yesterday did two somewhat contradictory things regarding Syria’s bloody civil war. One, it confirmed that Syria might have crossed the red line President Obama established -- using chemical weapons against it people. “The U.S. intelligence community assesses with some degree of varying confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria,” Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said yesterday, per NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski. But two, the administration wasn’t sure about the intelligence. “We still have some uncertainties about what was used, what kind of chemicals were used, where it was used, who used it,” Hagel added. So why the two contradictory messages? Well, for one thing, the administration was sort of forced into publicly disclosing this intelligence, because if it didn’t, everyone else was (not just the Brits and Israelis, but lawmakers on Capitol Hill). Secondly, this is all about buying time to further cobble together an international coalition opposing the Assad regime (just as Obama meets with Jordan’s King Abdullah II at 1:55 pm ET today). But there’s another reason why the administration is trying to buy time: Because there are no good options.

Handout / Reuters

Demonstrators carry banners and Syrian opposition flags during a protest against Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Kafranbel, near Idlib, April 26, 2013.

*** But not acting might be the worst option: Indeed, even the hawks are split about what to do when it comes to Syria. Do you institute the no-fly zone? Put U.S. boots on the ground? Arm the rebels (who could turn out to be another problem down the road)? And this was the cloud hanging over the dedication of the Bush library yesterday -- the American public probably doesn’t have the stomach about intervening (one way or another) in a foreign civil war. But as Jeffrey Goldberg writes, the Obama administration not acting might be the worst consequence of all. “There are no good choices -- good outcomes in Syria are impossible to imagine. But if it is proved to a certainty that Assad is trying to kill his people with chemical weapons, then Obama may have no choice but to act, not only because he has put the country’s credibility on the line … but also because the alternative -- allowing human beings to be murdered by a monstrous regime using the world’s most devilish weapons, when he has the power to stop it -- is not a moral option for a moral man.” And Goldberg recalls this line that Obama said when he was a senator: “What I don’t want to see happen is for Iraq to become an excuse for us to ignore misery or human-rights violations or genocide.”

*** Obama sells immigration reform at the Bush library: Speaking of yesterday’s dedication of the Bush library, perhaps the biggest news -- other than Barbara Bush saying that the country has had enough Bushes in the Oval Office -- was Obama selling immigration reform by invoking George W. Bush’s legacy. “I am hopeful that this year, with the help of Speaker Boehner and some of the senators and members of Congress who are here today, that we bring it home -- for our families, and our economy, and our security, and for this incredible country that we love,” Obama said. “And if we do that, it will be in large part thanks to the hard work of President George W. Bush.” When you think about it, this was perhaps the largest Republican audience that Obama has ever addressed, and he put the prospects of immigration reform this way: “Passing immigration reform is just as much George W. Bush’s legacy as it is mine.” 

*** Business travelers of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your frequent-flyer miles! NBC’s Kasie Hunt and Mike O’Brien report that the Senate last night passed a measure to give the FAA flexibility to prevent the air-traffic-controller furloughs and delayed flights across the country. “Senators unanimously approved the ‘Reducing Flight Delays Act of 2013’ — a patch to fix the deep cuts that have furloughed air traffic controllers and delayed flights across the country… The House could take the bill up tomorrow and pass it with two-thirds support of that chamber.” So let’s get this straight: As soon as business travelers are inconvenienced for LESS THAN A WEEK, Congress takes action to fix the sequester. But where are the fixes to the sequester cuts to programs benefiting the poor, like Head Start? The White House, which said it will sign the fix into law, made that very point even as it showed no stomach for this fight. “We hope Congress will find the same sense of urgency and bipartisan cooperation to help the families who have had children kicked out of Head Start, the seniors who have lost access to Meals On Wheels, the hard-working employees who have been laid off due to defense cuts, and the 750,000 Americans who have lost a job or won't find one because of the sequester.” The lesson here: Congress will act, but only if it and its friends are hurt or simply inconvenienced. That’s a devastating indictment on how Washington works.

*** Our weekly 2016 round-up: On Thursday, the dedication of the George W. Bush presidential library featured two potential 2016 attendees: Hillary Clinton (who gave her first paid speech the day before) and Jeb Bush (whose mother said there were already enough Bush presidents)… Marco Rubio starred in a new TV ad by GOP supporters of comprehensive immigration reform… On Wednesday, Joe Biden delivered a moving speech at a memorial for the slain MIT police officer… His wife, Jill, has a new Twitter account… Rand Paul said the Boston bombings should put immigration reform on hold, and he also appeared to flip-flop on drones… Paul Ryan championed immigration reform… And Martin O’Malley, in Israel, talked about his 2016 intentions. “I plan for the latter half of this year to dedicate some more thought time — reflection time — to the question of whether or not I would run in 2016,” he said. O’Malley also gave Netanyahu a Joe Flacco jersey. 

*** Surprise, surprise -- Toomey’s approval rating goes up: We said Pat Toomey (R-PA) had a political motivation, looking ahead to 2016, to work on that background-check compromise with Joe Manchin (D-WV). “Though the background-check amendment co-sponsored by Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., failed last week to earn enough votes to be adopted, Toomey's standing among Pennsylvania voters is now at the highest point of his three-plus-year term, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Friday,” National Journal’s Steven Shepard writes. Toomey’s approval is 48%/30%, up from 43%/32% before the background-check push in March; Sen. Bob Casey (D) gets a similar 48%/34% approval, the same as March; President Obama’s is split at 48%/48%, an improvement over his underwater 44%/51% approval last month.

*** Cuccinelli up on the air, McAuliffe’s car company remains in the news: In Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, Ken Cuccinelli (R) is up with his first TV ad of the race -- and it appears intended to soften the Republican’s image, especially with female voters. The ad, which will begin running on statewide TV on Monday, features his wife speaking to the camera. “I’m Teiro Cuccinelli. My husband Ken has spent his life standing up for the vulnerable and those in need,” she says. “He’s worked the night shift at a homeless shelter, spent his college days leading efforts to prevent sexual assaults, and represented those suffering from mental illness. As attorney general, Ken fought to find and prosecute child predators and human traffickers. Virginia deserves a Governor who is experienced, principled, and honest. I think you’ll find that’s what Ken Cuccinelli is all about.” This new ad comes as the New York Times dives into the controversies surrounding the car company, GreenTech, formerly owned by Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe. “Documents have surfaced questioning his explanation for why he located the plant in Mississippi, not Virginia, including memos from Virginia officials expressing ‘grave doubts’ about his business model and suggesting its financing was a “visa-for-sale scheme” for Chinese investors.” 

*** One camp is trying to be likeable; the other isn’t: What ought to scare McAuliffe supporters is this: One campaign is trying to figure out how to be liked (Cuccinelli’s), and the other campaign isn’t trying or doesn’t know how (McAuliffe’s). Harry Wilson, a political scientist at Roanoke College, put it very well to the Times: “This may be the first time we don’t like our governor the day after the election.” But the question is: Which candidate is at least trying to be liked? But this story raises a larger question. What’s going on with the McAuliffe campaign? Is its strategy really just to sit back and then carpet-bomb Cuccinelli as out of touch and hope he can scrape by? Is that any way to win? Yes, it is. But is that any way to govern if you do actually win? No. Many Virginia Democrats are grumbling about the way McAuliffe is running this race (or the fact that Terry is their standard-bearer). What’s amazing is how much fear there is in the Virginia Democratic Party about challenging McAuliffe publicly on this. Of course, this isn’t fear of Terry as much as it is fear of the Clintons.  

*** UPDATE *** The McAuliffe campaign counters by saying it has focused mostly on a positive campaign thus far. "Terry has spent the last three months making front page news across Virginia by focusing on a positive message about making the Commonwealth better for business," spokesman Josh Schwerin says in an email to First Read. "Ken Cuccinelli has hidden from the public and been forced on defense over extreme statements on women's health, opposition to Social Security and an ongoing ethics scandals that have dominated the campaign since January."

*** On “Meet this Press” this weekend: NBC’s David Gregory interviews John McCain and Tony Blair. And the program has already released this excerpt from Blair on Bush: “Well I thought, it was great advertisement for America today by the way, you had five presidents including President Obama and all behaving with a sort of graciousness and a civility toward each other that I thought was fantastic and President Obama actually put his finger on it when he said, 'it's impossible to know George Bush and not like him,' so you know, often people say to me back home, they say, 'come on, you didn't like him really, did you?' And I say you can totally disagree with him but as a human being he is someone of immense character and genuine integrity, so, you can say- people have different views about decisions, but there's very few people who know him and don't like him and respect him as a person.”

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Re-examining Bush… But will history -- especially when it comes to Iraq -- truly allow him to get a second look?... 2016 could give us an early answer… What the Bush library/museum displays (and what it doesn’t)… A stroll down Memory Lane: Looking back at Bush’s presidency… A handful of conservatives bring up the charge that Obama hasn’t kept the country safe… Obama fundraises last night -- before attending today’s library dedication and memorial for those in West, TX… Another example of the difficult time Boehner/Cantor have had in herding cats… And Congress to exempt itself from Obamacare?

Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images

Former President George W. Bush participates in a signing ceremony inside the Freedom Hall for the joint use agreement between the National Archive and the George W. Bush Presidential Center on the campus of Southern Methodist University on April 24, 2013 in Dallas, Texas.

*** Re-examining Bush: Ex-presidents almost always get a second look. Long after the Vietnam War forced him to abandon his presidential re-election bid in 1968, Lyndon Johnson is now lionized (most recently by the New York Times) for his ability to twist arms. After the Cold War's end and David McCullough's popular book, Americans view Harry Truman more favorably than when he left office. And Bill Clinton -- who was dogged by impeachment, the Marc Rich pardon, and his contribution to his wife's defeat in 2008 -- is now enjoying his highest poll numbers in a very long time. So naturally, with the George W. Bush library being dedicated today, the re-examination of the nation's 43rd president is well underway. The Washington Post recently wrote about Bush’s rebounding poll numbers, though a recent NBC/WSJ poll found his fav/unfav numbers (35%-44%) relatively unchanged since 2010. And former Bush ’04 campaign manager Ken Mehlman argued that Bush’s “compassionate conservatism” and push for immigration reform is a GOP roadmap for better success with minority voters. But here’s the question to consider: Will history -- especially when it comes to Iraq -- truly allow Bush to get a second look?

*** Can he escape his Iraq legacy? To be sure, Bush supporters tout his accomplishments, such as the No Child Left Behind education law, the Medicare prescription-drug benefit, the Africa/AIDS work, and the Roberts-Alito appointments to the Supreme Court. Other events -- like 9/11, Hurricane Katrina and the 2008 financial crisis -- would have challenged any president. But it's the Iraq War that Bush will find hard to escape. After all, it was a war of choice that resulted in the deaths of thousands of U.S. soldiers, the deaths of many more civilians, the destabilization of the Middle East (think Iran would be the threat it is today without the Iraq War?), and the election of Barack Obama in 2008 (who essentially campaigned against Bush in his two winning elections). More importantly, the war's primary justification -- Iraq having weapons of mass destruction -- turned out to be incorrect. “People will make their own judgment,” Bush told NBC’s Matt Lauer this morning on “TODAY,” adding: “Removing Saddam Hussein was the right decision.” However, a Jan. 2013 NBC/WSJ poll found 59% of the public saying the Iraq War wasn’t worth it.

*** 2016 could hint at an answer: Perhaps a key test if history looks more kindly on Bush's presidency is the 2016 election. History's failed presidencies have tended to result in the opposition party going on a run in future presidential contests – think of the six Republican victories after James Buchanan, the five Democratic wins after Herbert Hoover, and the three-straight Republican victories after Jimmy Carter. So who wins in 2016 (Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, the GOP nominee?) could tell you something about Bush's legacy, at least from American voters. Another 2016 story to watch: Does brother Jeb Bush run? "If Jeb's last name was Brown instead of Bush, he'd probably be the front-runner for the Republican nomination," Haley Barbour told recently Politico. And does the ultimate GOP nominee run on something like Bush's "compassionate conservative" platform, or does the nominee run away from Bush as Romney did (remember, Bush was a no-show at the GOP convention, and Romney rarely invoked him on the campaign trail)? Speaking of 2016, don’t miss former First Lady Barbara Bush saying on “TODAY” she DOESN’T want her son Jeb running. “We’ve had enough Bushes.” Leave it to Mama Bush -- the straightest of straight talkers -- to make the unpredictable news of the morning here. She’s legendary inside the family for telling it like it is and not hiding her true feelings well in public. And, well, she did it again. The official line from George W. and Laura about Jeb is “run” -- they have not even hesitated when asked.

*** What the museum displays (and what it doesn’t): What’s striking for those of us who have been able to tour the new Bush library and museum is that there is no dedicated section on Iraq; instead, the war is discussed as part of the “global war on terror.” What’s more, former Vice President Dick Cheney and top political strategist Karl Rove have almost no presence in the library, despite being two of the most consequential actors in the Bush administration. What is clear is the presence of former First Lady Laura Bush, however. This isn’t just the George W. Bush Library; it’s the George W. and Laura Bush Library. It’s folks Laura respected from the Bush team who are featured in the library -- from Condi Rice to folks like Andy Card and Josh Bolten.

*** A stroll down Memory Lane: Per NBC’s Sarah Blackwill, here are some of the more memorable quotes from Bush’s eight years in the White House:
Jan. 20, 2001: “America, at its best, is compassionate. In the quiet of American conscience, we know that deep, persistent poverty is unworthy of our nation's promise.” (First inaugural address)
Sept. 14, 2001: I can hear you! I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people who ... knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon. (Bush at WTC site)
Jan. 28, 2003: The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.” (2003 State of the Union)
May 1, 2003: Officers and sailors of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, My fellow Americans: Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. (“Mission Accomplished” event)
Nov. 3, 2004: “Laura and I wish Senator Kerry and Teresa and their whole family all our best wishes. America has spoken, and I'm humbled by the trust and the confidence of my fellow citizens.” (Election Night 2004)
Nov. 4, 2004: “Let me put it to you this way. I earned capital in the campaign, political capital. And now I intend to spend it.” (Press conference after re-election victory)
Jan. 20, 2005: “There is only one force of history that can break the reign of hatred and resentment, and expose the pretensions of tyrants, and reward the hopes of the decent and tolerant, and that is the force of human freedom.” (Second inaugural address.)
Sept. 2, 2005: “Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job.'' (After Hurricane Katrina)
Jan. 10, 2007: “So America will change our strategy to help the Iraqis carry out their campaign to put down sectarian violence and bring security to the people of Baghdad. This will require increasing American force levels. So I have committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq.” (Announcing Iraq surge)

*** A handful of conservatives bring up the charge that Obama hasn’t kept the country safe: Given the Bush library dedication and given the news out of Boston last week, maybe we should have braced ourselves for a handful of conservatives arguing that the Obama administration is “failing” to keep the country safe from terrorists. But do leaders of the GOP really want to have this argument? This could get ugly -- fast. Here was freshman Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) on the House floor yesterday: “In barely four years in office, five jihadists have reached their targets in the United States under Barack Obama: the Boston Marathon bomber, the underwear bomber, the Times Square Bomber, the Fort Hood shooter, and in my own state—the Little Rock recruiting office shooter. In the over seven years after 9/11 under George W. Bush, how many terrorists reached their target in the United States? Zero!” Conservative writer Jennifer Rubin has made a similar point. “Unlike Obama’s tenure, there was no successful attack on the homeland after 9/11.” (Note the words “after 9/11” from both Cotton and Rubin.) Interestingly, when Lauer asked Bush today whether the country was safer, the former president answered in the affirmative, but he added, “People on the homeland are aware that we are not completely secure.” Until “hopelessness” has been eradicated, Bush said, “we’ll still be vulnerable.” The most serious of security folks have said for years (since 9/11) that the hardest attack to prevent is the lone wolf. Don’t be surprised if some of the more senior GOP folks denounce this line of attack on Obama.

*** Obama fundraises … then hits the Bush library and service for those killed in West, TX: Meanwhile, are we the only ones surprised that Obama decided to hit a fundraiser in Dallas last night before attending today’s Bush library dedication (where he speaks at 11:00 am ET) and then the memorial service for those who died in West, TX (at 3:15 pm ET)? It’s an odd tone.

*** Another example of the difficult time Boehner/Cantor have had in herding cats in the House: “Republican leaders in the House of Representatives on Wednesday withdrew a bill that would change the Obama administration's healthcare law amid conservative concerns that the legislation was replacing one big government program with another,” Reuters writes. “The House cleared the way to debate the bill, which was designed to help Americans with pre-existing medical conditions while preventing the administration from using an alternate source of funding to implement its healthcare law. But the ‘Helping Sick Americans Now’ bill was pulled from the schedule before members could cast their votes, suggesting that Republican leaders did not have enough support from their own members. Democrats called the bill a political ploy by the Republicans.”

*** Congress to exempt itself from Obamacare? And finally, if this Politico story is true, we’d imagine Congress' approval ratings will sink even lower (if that's possible). “Congressional leaders in both parties are engaged in high-level, confidential talks about exempting lawmakers and Capitol Hill aides from the insurance exchanges they are mandated to join as part of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, sources in both parties said.” NBC’s Kasie Hunt says that this all comes down to whether Capitol Hill’s employer (i.e., the federal government) can subsidize health-care costs for their employees like most businesses do. All of this might be irrelevant because the Office of Personnel Management still hasn't made a key ruling about whether the government is allowed to continue providing subsidies to federal employees. If they rule that it's allowed, the talks aren't necessary.

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Boston becoming a political football -- this time regarding intelligence… GOP establishment fully pushing immigration with new TV ad featuring Rubio… Rand Paul’s flip-flop on drones?… Bush on his relationship with Dick Cheney: “You know, it’s been cordial”… Tuesday’s big 2014 developments: 1) Baucus isn’t seeking re-election, and 2) Kim Reynolds says no to IA SEN bid… And Mark Sanford is still talking about that trespassing charge.

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill, April 23, 2013.

*** Boston becoming a political football: Last week, we told you that Washington was biding its time before diving into the politics of Boston. Well, here’s the splash as it relates to intelligence gathering. The Boston Globe: “Russian authorities contacted the US government with concerns about Tamerlan Tsarnaev not once but ‘multiple’ times, including an alert it sent after he was first investigated by FBI agents in Boston, raising new questions about whether the FBI should have paid more attention to the suspected Boston Marathon bomber, US senators briefed on the investigation said Tuesday.” NBC’s Pete Williams cautions that FBI officials are insisting -- again -- that they were contacted about Tamerlan Tsarnaev only once, in early 2011, by the Russian intelligence service, which said it had reason to believe that he was becoming a follower of radical Islam. Nevertheless, when you have U.S. senators alleging that the FBI was contacted “multiple” times, you have a situation that’s turned into a political football.

*** Hindsight is always 20-20, of course: There also are questions being raised by lawmakers about “stove-piping” -- that is, intel agencies not sharing information. But how much of this is hindsight and how much of this is truly a systemic problem? And let’s not forget the personal liberties issue. Just how much was the FBI supposed to be tracking someone that they had no hard (or even soft) evidence of becoming a terrorist threat? It’s very possible the FBI came to a reasonable conclusion that the Russian warning was as much about them harassing a Chechen as it was anything else. That said, one potential policy change to keep an eye on, post-Boston, is increased surveillance on those who traffic in any kind of radical Islamic rhetoric on social media. And that, of course, will usher in another debate about the line between personal liberties and security.

*** GOP establishment fully pushing immigration reform: On immigration, the group Americans for a Conservative Direction -- led by Haley Barbour, former Jeb Bush Chief of Staff Sally Bradshaw, Facebook’s Joel Kaplan, Dan Senor, and Rob Jesmer -- is up with a TV ad selling immigration reform to Republicans. And the ad features Sen. Marco Rubio, who says, “Anyone who thinks what we have right now on immigration is fooling themselves. What we have in place today is de-facto amnesty.” A narrator then adds, “Conservative leaders have a plan -- the toughest enforcement measure in the history of the United States.” And the narrator concludes, “Stand with Marco Rubio to end de-facto amnesty.” Per the Tampa Bay Times, the seven-figure ad buy will air statewide in Florida, plus markets in Texas, Utah, North Carolina, Iowa, and Kentucky.” If you wanted another example how the GOP establishment is fully behind immigration reform, it’s this ad. More importantly, the ad is targeted in states with key Republican senators who could either torpedo immigration (Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul), or help it get to 75 votes (Orrin Hatch, John Cornyn, Richard Burr, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Grassley).

*** Bush on his relationship with Cheney: “You know, it’s been cordial”: A day before the dedication of George W. Bush’s presidential library, C-Span has this sound of the former president talking about his relationship with Dick Cheney. “You know it’s been cordial — but he lives in Washington and we live in Dallas.” More: “One of the saddest things about departing Washington is that you miss your pals and a lot of people were there for all eight years and I became good friends with them, like Vice President Cheney. …  You know, I just I don’t see him — much. And I don’t see many of the people I worked with much and it’s kind of sad. It’s great to be in Texas, however.” And then: “I really don’t miss Washington. … “So while we’ve got friends in Washington I’m not all that friendly to Washington.” For what it’s worth, Cheney has no real role in the library and museum. While Bush veterans like Andy Card, Josh Bolten and Condi Rice are among the Bushies who do videos and have roles in the interactive portions of the Bush library, there’s nothing from Cheney, although he will be in attendance tomorrow.

*** 2016 alert: Rand Paul’s flip-flop on drones? There’s some trouble in Paul Land. Here’s Foreign Policy: “Ron Paul's vibrant fan base is in open rebellion today over Rand Paul's perceived reversal on domestic drone strikes. The Kentucky senator, whose famous 13-hour Senate floor filibuster did much to strengthen his ties with his father's hardcore following, told Fox Business Network on Tuesday he's OK with drone strikes on American citizens who, for instance, rob a liquor store. ‘I've never argued against any technology being used when you have an imminent threat, an active crime going on,’ Paul said. ‘If someone comes out of a liquor store with a weapon and fifty dollars in cash. I don't care if a drone kills him or a policeman kills him.’” Paul later released this statement: "My comments last night left the mistaken impression that my position on drones had changed. Let me be clear: it has not. Armed drones should not be used in normal crime situations. They only may only be considered in extraordinary, lethal situations where there is an ongoing, imminent threat. I described that scenario previously during my Senate filibuster.”

*** Tuesday’s big 2014 developments: Yesterday should have been a high-five day for the Republican Party in its quest to pick up the six Senate seats needed to win the majority in 2014. First, Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) announced he wasn’t running for re-election, thus giving Republicans a prime pick-up opportunity in a state where Obama won just 42% of the vote in 2012. But just minutes later, Democrats were able to counter that popular ex-Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer is leaning toward running for the vacant seat, while the GOP still hasn’t found a top-notch candidate. Then after that, the GOP received its own bad news: As NBC’s Alex Moe first reported, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds decided not to run for the seat vacated by Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa). So with Rep. Tom Latham passing on a Senate bid, and with Rep. Steve King appearing to lean against it, the Reynolds news means that Republicans will likely have to turn to second- and third-tier candidates in the Hawkeye State.

*** Examining the GOP’s IA-MT-SD path: The GOP’s path to winning the Senate goes directly through the Midwest/Mountain West. Republicans have to win AT LEAST two of the three of Iowa, Montana, and South Dakota to pick up those six Senate seats. They look good in South Dakota, where they have former Gov. Mike Rounds already in the race. But they’re now dipping into their second tier of candidates in Iowa, where Democrats have already recruited a top candidate in Rep. Bruce Braley. And in Montana, Democrats right now appear more prepared to land a good candidate (Schweitzer) than Republicans do, although that is still far from settled. But if you were to tell Republicans that -- all before April 30, 2013 -- they would have three open seats in Iowa, South Dakota and Montana, Mitch McConnell might already be measuring the drapes in the Senate majority leader’s office. But all three things have happened, and only one of those races looks like a good bet for a GOP pickup. Then again, it’s April 2013…

*** Sanford still talking about that trespassing charge: You know the saying: When you’re in a hole, stop digging. But Mark Sanford doesn’t appear to be following that advice. “First Congressional District candidate Mark Sanford, who previously has said he was in his ex-wife’s home Feb. 3 because he didn’t want his youngest son to watch the Super Bowl alone, said Tuesday for the first time that a second son was at the home, too.”

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Obama at a second-term inflection point… And it largely hinges on success/failure of immigration reform… A tale of two Pauls (Ryan and Rand) on immigration… The sequester is back in the news… The Bush Rehabilitation Project… Snyder is upside-down in Michigan… Let’s get ready to rumble -- Aloha style… And the Comeback Kids. 

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

President Barack Obama delivers remarks praising the student winners of the third annual White House Science Fair in the East Room of the White House, April 22, 2013.

*** Obama at a second-term inflection point: After last week’s defeat of the Senate background-check measure, two different views of President Obama and presidential power have emerged. The first comes from those who understand how Washington truly works, especially when there’s divided government -- you need 60 votes in the Senate (and thus at least five Republicans to cross over), Obama didn’t even carry a majority of congressional districts (209 to be exact) despite winning the popular vote by nearly five million votes. According that view, what happened with the gun legislation was fairly predictable, though the ultimate defeat probably occurred quicker than expected. The second view comes from those who believe that all leadership comes from the president, and who think the fate of legislation hinges on how powerful the president is or how powerful a president acts. According to this take, Obama failed in the gun debate, even though he used his bully pulpit more than we’ve seen in other any other legislative debate since health care. And if you’ve had a beef with Obama’s leadership style, you’re using this gun defeat to air your grievances (“He’s no LBJ when it comes to twisting arms!”). But the fairest way to look to Obama’s second term -- which is just three months in -- is this: The president is at an inflection point. 

*** And it hinges on immigration reform: Obama’s early second-term domestic agenda had three planks: 1) gun control, 2) budget, and 3) immigration reform. So to recap where things stand, gun control has been defeated; the budget talks (despite Obama having another dinner with senators tonight) are at a stalemate with no real sign of progress evident anywhere (how did that Chained-CPI offer go?); and immigration is moving through the Senate. If Congress passes immigration reform, this discussion about Obama’s legislative leadership will look like a silly exercise -- he will have health care, financial reform, “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal, the fiscal-cliff deal, and immigration trophies on the wall. (Sure, they might have been ugly victories, but a win’s a win, right?) Yet if immigration doesn’t pass, then it will be more than fair to note that Obama was unable to navigate a divided Congress. Bottom line: Judging Obama’s second term, just three months in, is way too early. But make no mistake, a lot is riding on immigration reform.

*** A tale of two Pauls (Ryan and Rand) on immigration: Speaking of immigration, there was one positive development for reformers and one negative development. The positive: House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan is on board the immigration-reform train. “[On] Monday in Chicago, something a little unusual happened when a congressional duo, U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.), emerged to give a big push for comprehensive immigration reform,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. “Appearing at the City Club of Chicago luncheon, the men sounded cautiously optimistic about Congress moving on the issue and emphasized that the effort should not be sidetracked by last week's fatal bombings at the Boston Marathon.” Folks, this is a pretty big deal, because Ryan’s support gives House Speaker Boehner tons of cover to bring the immigration-reform legislation to the floor. But here was the negative development: Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) pulled back from reform, especially after Boston. “We should not proceed until we understand the specific failures of our immigration system,” Paul said in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, per the Washington Post. “Why did the current system allow two individuals to immigrate to the United States from the Chechen Republic in Russia, an area known as a hotbed of Islamic extremism, who then committed acts of terrorism?” You can’t help but wonder if Paul is seizing a potential opportunity to be to the right of potential 2016 foes on this issue.  

*** The sequester is back: By the way, the politics over the sequester is back in the news. The New York Times: “Flights were delayed by up to two hours across the country on Monday, the first weekday that the nation’s air traffic control system operated with 10 percent fewer controllers. Pilots, gate agents and others were quick to blame furloughs caused by mandatory across-the-board budget cuts, but the Federal Aviation Administration said it was too soon to tell.” For what it’s worth, this is what many in the Obama administration warned about, but because it didn’t happen in the immediate days after sequester kicked in, it was seen as hype. Now we’re seeing a PR battle between congressional Republicans (who want to claim Obama is not actively trying to avoid sequester fallout with the FAA) and the Obama administration (which is saying it’s limited in what it can do and need all of sequester rolled back to right this ship).

*** On the sales-tax legislation: The current battle over legislation to help states force online retailers to collect state sales taxes is pretty fascinating to watch. It’s pitting different parts of the GOP -- those who represent big business vs. those who are always anti-tax. And this statement yesterday from Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) illustrates why the legislation is picking up speed while at the same time some GOPers are nervous about how it’s portrayed. “I think most Tennesseans would agree that we’re fortunate not to have a state income tax, and to help ensure that remains the case, it’s important our sales tax system works. This is a states’ rights bill that gives states like Tennessee the ability to enforce existing state tax laws and collect sales taxes on online purchases if they choose.” By the way, note the name of the bill -- “The Marketplace Fairness Act.”  Navigating issues regarding the sales tax and gas tax has been a problem for Republican governors so far this year. As the base become so anti-tax that ANY tax increase anywhere (even if offset or based on fairness) is a non-starter in a GOP primary?

*** The Bush Rehabilitation Project: According to our most recent NBC/WSJ poll, George W. Bush’s poll numbers continue to remain in the net-negative territory -- with 35% viewing him favorably and 44% viewing him negatively. (However, a new Washington Post/ABC poll has different numbers: 47% approval-50% disapproval.) Yet with the dedication of the new Bush library taking place on Thursday, the Bush rehabilitation project is in full swing. The latest is this USA Today op-ed by former Bush campaign manager (and former RNC Chair) Ken Mehlman. “We can win the votes of non-whites, but only if we try. President George W. Bush won an historic share of Hispanic voters and grew African- and Asian-American support by acknowledging the different and often difficult experiences of many minorities, while pursuing policies that recognized the universal appeal of freedom and opportunity. As Republicans look to the future, our party might revisit this approach.”

*** Snyder is upside-down in Michigan: Last week, we noted how Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s (R) poll numbers have improved after a rocky 2011-2012. Well, the opposite is true for Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) after a relatively uncontroversial 2011-2012 -- his numbers have declined, per a new EPIC/MRA poll. “The governor’s favorable rating hit a high of 55% in early December. But that was before controversial right-to-work legislation was passed in the raucous final days of the legislative session. Since then, Snyder’s ratings have been slipping. In the April survey, 42% of the people had a favorable view of him, while 46% had an unfavorable view. His job rating was 38% positive to 58% negative.” What’s more, Snyder is virtually tied in hypothetical match-ups in the high-30s against two Democrats (Mark Schauer and Bart Stupak) who have very low name ID. 

*** Let’s get ready to rumble -- Aloha style: Over the past few years, Hawaii has seen its share of combative Democratic primaries. And next year will feature another one. Roll Call: “Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, has decided to run for Senate and will likely make a public announcement in the Aloha State next week during recess, a source close to the congresswoman told CQ Roll Call. The decision comes four months after Hanabusa was passed over for the appointment to the seat of the late Sen. Daniel Inouye and sets up what will be a spirited Democratic primary battle with appointed Sen. Brian Schatz.” What does Obama do? His endorsement carries HUGE weight in Hawaii. Does he get involved?  

*** The Comeback Kids? Finally, given all the politicians trying to make comebacks -- Mark Sanford in South Carolina, Anthony Weiner (with a new Twitter account!) in New York -- our colleague Jessica Taylor looks at five other pols who are (or might be) on the comeback trail and who actually could win: Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, Asa Hutchison, Charlie Crist, Mia Love, and Nancy Pelosi. 

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This story was originally published on Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:10 AM EDT

Two political questions after Boston… One, how should the federal government try terror suspects, even if they’re U.S. citizens?.... Two, does it impact the immigration-reform debate?... McCain, Graham, and Rubio play defense on immigration… An overlooked story over the weekend: Christie pursues background checks… The Democrats’ red-state dilemma on guns… Debbie Dingell says “no” on MI SEN bid… And Garcetti leads Greuel by 10 pts in new poll.

Jason Reed / Reuters

Members of the Senate's "Gang on Eight" are pictured during a news briefing on Capitol Hill, April 18, 2013. The senators (L-R) Marco Rubio, R-Fla., Dick Durbin, D-Ill., Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., John McCain, R-Ariz., Bob Menendez, D-N.J., Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., who crafted comprehensive legislation to overhaul the immigration system went to great lengths to balance the competing priorities of dozens of interest groups in an 844-page bill introduced on Wednesday in hopes it would improve the chances for passage of the bill.

*** The two political questions after Boston: Just days after one Boston Marathon bombing suspect was apprehended and the other was killed, the political world confronts these two questions: One, how should the federal government try terror suspects, even if they’re U.S. citizens? And two, how does Boston impact the immigration debate? On the first question, GOP lawmakers -- including Sens. Lindsey Graham, John McCain, and Kelly Ayotte, as well as Rep. Peter King -- “want President Obama to declare the surviving Boston bombing suspect an enemy combatant in order to question him without a lawyer and other protections of the criminal justice system,” the New York Times writes. But this appears to be a dubious demand given that the surviving suspect, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, is a naturalized American citizen. (Indeed, the question might be more complicated if the other brother Tamerlan, who wasn’t a citizen but was a legal resident, had been the one who survived.) As the Times, writes, "Beyond the absence of known links between Mr. Tsarnaev and Al Qaeda, it is also unclear whether the Constitution permits the government to hold citizens arrested on domestic soil as enemy combatants." Bottom line: this isn’t going to be a serious debate for long. It’s not clear if Graham et al even represent a majority of GOP opinion on this. As we’ve seen with the rise in popularity of Rand Paul among Republicans, the libertarian wing is strong these days. If anything, Paul vs. Graham on this issue could be a fascinating sideshow debate in the coming days and weeks.

*** On handling terror suspects and on immigration: The other question in the aftermath of Boston is what it will mean for the immigration reform legislation beginning to move through the Senate. (The Tsarnaev brothers came to the United States when they were children/teenagers with their parents claiming asylum.) As early as Friday, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, was the first to tie the two things together. “Given the events of this week, it’s important for us to understand the gaps and loopholes in our immigration system,” he said, per NBC’s Tom Curry. “While we don’t yet know the immigration status of the people who have terrorized the communities in Massachusetts, when we find out it will help shed light on the weaknesses of our system.” On ABC over the weekend, Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) called to delay the immigration debate in the wake of Boston. “I think stepping back a little bit and putting it on hold, we have a bigger issue on immigration in front of us and that’s our debt and deficit and it has to be solved.” In the Senate, there are probably about 10-15 GOP senators who are opposed to immigration reform NO MATTER WHAT. But there are probably another 15-20 GOP senators who are SKITTISH about how their base supporters view the immigration debate, and they could be susceptible to being spooked politically if this “hold off on immigration reform due to Boston” movement gains traction. But in the GRAND scheme of things, this won’t derail immigration. It just could jeopardize the chances of the bill getting more than 75 votes in the Senate. And if that’s the case, what does that mean in the House?

*** McCain, Graham, and Rubio play defense: Given that potential skittishness among some Republicans, fellow GOP Sens. McCain, Graham, and Marco Rubio went out of their way on Friday -- before Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was even captured -- to argue that Boston shouldn’t jeopardize immigration reform. “Immigration reform will strengthen our nation’s security by helping us identify exactly who has entered our country and who has left – a basic function of government that our broken immigration system is incapable of accomplishing today,” McCain and Graham said in a statement. “The status quo is unacceptable. We have 11 million people living in the shadows, which leaves this nation vulnerable to a myriad of threats.” And there is a danger here for GOP senators who might be wavering on immigration reform due to Boston: If you are pursuing immigration reform because you realize your party can’t afford to lose Latino voters by 44 percentage points, but if you’re also invoking two men who were already in the country legally (and aren’t Latino), what message does that send to Latino voters? In other words, do Latino voters get the finger pointed at them because of a terrorist attack? That seems a horrible message for Republican lawmakers to send.

*** Christie pursues background checks: This might have been the most overlooked story from the weekend: “New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is seeking expanded background checks for gun purchases and parental consent for minors to buy violent video games as part of his response to the school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut,” Bloomberg News writes. “Christie, a first-term Republican seeking re-election, also wants to ban purchases of the .50-caliber Barrett rifle, and to make it easier for doctors and courts to commit ‘potentially dangerous’ people to mental-health treatment against their will.” Folks, this isn’t someone who’s thinking about the 2016 primaries; instead, this is someone who’s running for re-election in the blue state of New Jersey. If Christie does end up running for president in 2016, he’s going to bringing a record that is similar to Rudy Giuliani, circa 2007. And while Rudy’s personal baggage did him in with GOP primary voters before his ideological baggage did, Christie will be another test about whether personality and electability can trump ideology. Many folks we know in GOP circles are skeptical.

*** The Democrats’ red-state dilemma on guns: Also on the topic of guns, former Obama White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley -- who’s eyeing a possible gubernatorial bid in Illinois -- wrote a Washington Post op-ed arguing that he regretted the $2,500 campaign contribution he gave to Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) after she voted against universal background checks last week. “So I’ll have some advice for my friends in Chicago, New York and Los Angeles: Just say no to the Democrats who said no on background checks.” Yet for now, this kind of call represents a dilemma for Democrats. On the one hand, this is a sign that the Newtown shootings have changed politics, at least inside the Democratic Party. More and more, gun control is becoming a major issue for Democrats and Democratic donors. But on the other hand, if national Democrats say “no” to the Heitkamps, the Begiches, the and Pryors, do they risk losing these contests to Republicans? What is worse for Democrats: A Democratic senator in these states that opposes you 15%-20% of the time, or a Republican senator who opposes you 90%-95% of the time?

*** Debbie Dingell says “no” to MI SEN bid: Debbie Dingell, a prominent auto-industry lobbyist and wife to Rep. John Dingell (D-MI), has announced that she won’t make a bid for Michigan’s open Senate seat. “We have good candidates like Gary Peters already running, and a primary would be divisive at a time that cries out for unity,” she said in a statement. “As someone who has spent much of my career working to bring people together, it just didn't feel right to take this step now. There may be a time when elective office is the right choice for me, but this was not it.”

*** Garcetti ahead by 10 points: A month before LA’s May 21 mayoral run-off, a USC Price/Los Angeles Times poll shows City Councilman Eric Garcetti leading City Controller Wendy Greuel by 10 points among likely voters, 50%-40%. And this isn’t a good sign for Greuel: “The survey also found no sign of success for Greuel's effort to gain an edge among women by highlighting her potential to make history as the city's first female mayor. Women preferred Garcetti, 50% to 41%.”

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This story was originally published on Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:11 AM EDT

Manhunt is underway for at-large Boston bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19… His brother Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26, is killed by police… How the night unfolded… The Boston area shuts down… President Obama is briefed… And chilling anniversaries on or around April 19. 

*** Manhunt is underway: The nation has awakened to the news that one man is dead and a hunt is underway for the other in the chase for the two suspects accused of the Boston Marathon bombings. NBC’s Pete Williams, who has been on top of this story from the get-go, reports that the alleged terrorists are brothers. The man on the run in the Boston area is Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, born July 22, 1993 in Kyrgyzstan, and he was the one identified as wearing the white baseball cap. He has a Massachusetts driver’s license and is a resident of Cambridge, MA. The brother who is dead is Tamerlan Tzarnaev, born Oct. 21, 1986 in Russia, and he became a legal permanent resident in 2007. Authorities tell NBC’s Williams that the brothers came into the U.S. with their families in either 2002 or 2003. This is a story unfolding in real time. As of publication time, Pete Williams was reporting that authorities think they know where the second suspect is, and there is now concern about a third relative in the area.

*** How the night unfolded: Per NBC’s Williams, Jonathan Dienst, Michael Isikoff, and Richard Esposito, the evening's mayhem began when the suspects appeared to have confronted an MIT police officer in his cruiser, shot him in the head and killed him. Next, one of the suspects is seen on surveillance tape obtained by police robbing a 7-11 store in Cambridge, MA. The suspects then carjacked a Mercedes SUV and were chased by police. During the chase, the two men tossed explosives and hand grenades out the car window. At the end of the chase, authorities shot and killed one suspect (Tamerlan Tzarnaev), he was run over. When police approached his body, they discovered an IED strapped to his chest. Police say that the streets are littered with unexploded devices.

*** The Boston area shuts down: “The search has led to the sudden shutdown of the MBTA’s entire network of commuter rail, bus, and subway services,” the Boston Globe writes. “State authorities asked people who live in the entire city of Boston, as well as the nearby communities of Watertown, Waltham, Newton, Belmont, Cambridge, to “shelter in place” — stay inside and not open their doors to anyone except police with proper ID.”

*** Obama is briefed: President Obama has received briefings overnight of these unfolding events from his top counterterrorism adviser Lisa Monaco, NBC’s Kristen Welker reports. 

*** Chilling anniversaries: It’s not surprising if people are on edge given the anniversaries on or around this date of April 19. After all, it was on April 19, 1993 when the final raid on the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, TX took place… It was on April 19, 1995 when the Oklahoma City bombing occurred… It was April 20, 2010 when the Deep Horizon exploded off the Gulf Coast, beginning the months-long oil spill… And April 20 is also Adolf Hitler’s birthdate.

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