Yesterday's press conference was Part One of Obama's P.R. offensive (or defensive). Today's visit to Louisiana is Part Two… The president makes a statement at 1:30 pm ET… The light bulb for Obama finally turned on at the end of yesterday's presser… Obama says the White House's response to the Sestak issue is coming soon… House repeals "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and Senate Armed Services Committee follows suit… McCain's border victory… First Read's Top 10 issues… And Bill Clinton stumps for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas at 1:30 pm ET.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** P.R. offensive, part 2: Yesterday's White House press conference was the first part of President Obama's P.R. offensive (or defensive) regarding his administration's handling of the oil spill. Today -- with his visit to Louisiana and his statement at 1:30 pm ET -- comes the second part. In yesterday's presser, Obama rejected any suggestion his administration hasn't done enough to fight the growing disaster in the Gulf ("The American people should know that from the moment this disaster began, the federal government has been in charge of the response effort"). But he also acknowledged shortcomings ("Are we doing everything perfectly out there? Then the answer is absolutely not. We can always do better"). And he refused to acknowledge the Katrina comparisons ("I'm confident people are going to look back and say this administration was on top of what was an unprecedented crisis").

*** The light bulb finally turns on: But it was only at the end of the press conference that Obama moved from often bureaucratic-sounding answers to a more passionate and personal response; it was as if a light bulb had turned on in his head. He acknowledged the frustrations about the spill by telling an anecdote involving his daughter Malia. "I'm shaving and Malia knocks on my bathroom door, and she peeks in her head and she says, 'Did you plug the hole yet, Daddy?'"  And at the end, he made it absolutely clear he was in charge and taking responsibility. "It is my job to make sure that everything is done to shut this down. That doesn't mean it's going to be easy. It doesn't mean it's going to happen right away or the way I'd like it to happen. It doesn't mean that we're not going to make mistakes. But there shouldn't be any confusion here: The federal government is fully engaged, and I'm fully engaged." The shift we saw from Obama is the president's ongoing cerebral-vs.-gut tension.

*** Handcuffed: The reality is that the White House does feel handcuffed by this 1990 oil spill law, and one wonders if there is going to be an effort to change it. The president himself suggested a path yesterday where the oil companies might end up funding a government agency (think FDIC?) in order to make sure the GOVERNMENT can call the shots and be involved more directly in future disasters.

*** On Sestak: The other news that President Obama made yesterday is that his administration will be issuing a response very soon to the allegation that the White House offered Joe Sestak a job to keep him from challenging Arlen Specter. "I can assure the public that nothing improper took place," he said. First Read later learned that the White House counsel's office is preparing this report, and it will be released in the next few days. Indeed, this sort of reminds us of the report that the White House had to release about its contacts with then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) over the charges that Blagojevich tried to sell Obama's old Senate seat. With the White House expected to release this report, however, we've got to ask: Why isn't there more pressure on Sestak -- the person who originally said he was offered a job -- to explain his side of things? Sestak isn't doing Team Obama any favors by telling reporters yesterday that the White House reached out to his brother in the last week.

*** On repealing DADT: On Capitol Hill last night, the House -- by a 234-194 vote -- passed an amendment to the annual Pentagon policy bill that repealed "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." The amendment was a compromise under which the repeal won't occur until after a Pentagon review is completed by Dec. 1, and after it is determined that the change won't be disruptive to the military. The Senate Armed Services Committee -- by a 16-12 vote -- approved a similar amendment. Obama released a statement last night saying: "I am pleased that both the House of Representatives and the Senate Armed Services Committee took important bipartisan steps toward repeal… This legislation will help make our Armed Forces even stronger and more inclusive by allowing gay and lesbian soldiers to serve honestly and with integrity." By the way, there's a chance the president might have to veto entire bill if Congress defies Defense Secretary Gates' recommendation on a few key Defense contract cuts.

*** McCain's border victory: One vocal opponent of the DADT repeal, John McCain, won a victory after the Senate Armed Services Committee adopted an amendment to send 6,000 National Guard troops to the U.S. border. "Deploying the National Guard is essential to securing our U.S.-Mexico border," he said in a statement. "Families living in Arizona should not suffer from the daily threats caused by illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and human smuggling. It is the Federal government's obligation to protect all Americans by securing the borders, and deploying 6,000 National Guard is a critical first step."

*** First Read's Top 10 Issues: If it's Friday, it means another First Read Top 10 list. Today, we take a look at what we consider to be the Top 10 issues of this midterm cycle. The number in parentheses is our ranking from last month.
1. Washington (1): As reflected by this month's losses by Bob Bennett, Alan Mollahan, and Arlen Specter, this isn't a good time to be an incumbent. Running against Washington is perhaps the most powerful political message out there.
2. Establishment vs. anti-establishment (7): As Trey Grayson found out in his primary against Rand Paul, it's also not a good environment to be considered the establishment-backed candidate. A warning to Dino Rossi in Washington state?
3. Economy/jobs (2): This remains the overarching macro-political issue, but we're seeing more candidates run against Washington and the establishment than on the economy.
4. TARP/Wall Street bailouts (4): Want to know why Republican South Carolina gubernatorial candidate is airing a minute-long TV ad justifying his TARP vote? Because there's hardly a more toxic word in the political lexicon than "bailout."
5. Immigration (10): Last month, we said this could be a sleeper issue, and it now it's wide awake after the passage of the Arizona law, especially in GOP primaries. John McCain, Meg Whitman, Steve Poizner, and even Tim James are running provocative TV ads on immigration or English-only laws.
6. Barack Obama (6): The president is still an issue in GOP primaries -- remember Rubio's TV ad hitting Crist on the Obama hug? -- but his approval rating holds steady around 50%. Perhaps the bigger question is whether the president can mobilize his base for the midterms.
7. Health care (4): Remember when this was the only issue people were talking about? It still remains a potent topic, but not the same way it was two months ago. 8. Competence (9): Last month, we listed this issue because candidates were touting their competence -- in government or business -- and questioning their opponents'. But this issue now takes on added weight with the Gulf oil spill.
9. Ethics (unranked): This is a sleeper issue, although the ethical allegations/revelations surrounding Rangel, Massa, Deal, and Souder have constructed a ready-made narrative. And as we learned in the 2006 cycle, ethics can play a big story in the battle for Congress.
10. National Security (8): Despite fighting two wars, having two failed terrorist attacks, and witnessing a tense situation in North Korea, national security ranks at the bottom of our list. We've come a long way since 2001-2007.

*** More midterm news: In Arkansas, Bill Clinton appears at a rally for Blanche Lincoln at 1:30 pm ET in downtown Little Rock.

Countdown to CA, IA, ME, NJ, ND, SC, SD, and VA primaries, and AR run-off: 11 days:
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 158 days

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290,000 jobs created in April, but unemployment rate inches up to 9.9% (because more folks are looking for work)... Yesterday's Dow drop is sure to impact the financial reform debate… Hung parliament in Britain, but all signs are pointing to David Cameron being the next PM… All signs also point to Sen. Bob Bennett (R) going down in Utah tomorrow… First Read provides a tick-tock of what to expect at Saturday's GOP convention in Utah… Our Top 10 list of most vulnerable incumbents (guess who's No. 1)… By process of elimination, we have a good idea where the 2012 GOP convention will be… Paul and Mongiardo lead in new Kentucky poll… And Tim Cahill/John Weaver vs. Haley Barbour.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A jobless story? A week ago, we all had today's jobs report circled on our calendars. It was, we thought, the most significant political event as we look ahead to November and even 2012. It still may be -- 290,000 jobs were created in April, the biggest monthly gain in four years, yet the unemployment rate inched up to 9.9% -- but it's going to have a hard time competing with the other news out there. The oil spill in the Gulf coast. The failed Times Square bombing. The situation in Greece. The Dow tumbling nearly 1,000 points before partially recovering. Whew. As for the April job numbers, the news is mostly good for the Obama White House: The 290,000 figure was much higher than forecasters were predicting; private employers added 231,000 jobs; and these numbers could calm the jittery stock market. Still, 9.9% is high. At 11:00 am ET at the White House, President Obama makes a statement on the jobs numbers; he'll be joined by Treasury Secretary Geithner, Commerce Secretary Locke, Labor Secretary Solis, and others.

*** Trading Places: Strikingly, yesterday's unprecedented Dow drop -- triggered by a trader's error? -- comes as the Senate is debating its Wall Street/financial reform bill. And yesterday's news is bound to have an impact on the legislation. As the Washington Post writes, "Thursday's dramatic gyrations added fuel to the biggest policy debate in Washington: how to regulate Wall Street. That billions of dollars in stock-market value could be wiped out so abruptly, with such a lack of certainty about the cause, is a reminder of the high stakes involved in a system that is little understood by average investors."

*** Hung parliament in Britain: David Cameron's Conservative Party has won the most seats in parliament, but not a working majority. "David Cameron is to set out within hours his plans to form a 'stable' government, after the Tories won most votes but not an overall majority," the BBC says. "With results still coming in, the Tories have 293 seats in a hung parliament. He will say he plans to govern 'in the national interest.' Nick Clegg, leader of the third biggest party the Lib Dems, said the Tories had the first right to seek to govern. But Labour leader Gordon Brown is also hoping for a deal with the Lib Dems."

*** Bennett going down? As we've written over the past few days, Saturday could very well bring us the first incumbent to lose this election cycle. That's when 3,500 Utah Republicans hold their nomination convention, and polls show that three-term Sen. Bob Bennett (R) -- who's running for a fourth term -- might not even qualify to make it to the state's June 22 primary. There are seven other Republicans who are challenging Bennett, including former state general counsel Mike Lee and venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater. A recent Salt Lake Tribune poll of the delegates who will attend the convention found Bennett in third place (at 16%), trailing Lee (37%) and Bridgewater (20%). Ironically, the reliably conservative Bennett finds himself in trouble for his 2008 TARP and his work with Democrat Ron Wyden on bipartisan health-care legislation.

*** UT GOP convention tick-tock: The convention gets underway at noon ET, and the eight Senate candidates begin giving seven-minute presentations -- Mitt Romney will introduce Bennett during Bennett's -- that start around 12:45 pm ET. The first vote takes place after those speeches, and the Top 3 finishers make it to the next round. The second round of voting, which begins with one-minute speeches, is estimated to start around 3:30 pm ET, and the Top 2 make it the final round. Once someone gets 60% -- in the first, second, or third votes -- then that candidate becomes the party's nominee. If no one gets 60%, then the Top 2 finishers will compete in the state's June 22 primary. So for Bennett to avoid defeat, he will need to finish in the Top 2 and get more than 40% in the last round of voting. (But a Deseret News poll found that 41% of convention-goers absolutely will not vote for Bennett.) The final results should be known by 6:00 to 6:30 pm ET.

*** TARP -- a sleeping giant of an issue: One other thing: If Bennett goes down, and if Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Gresham Barrett in South Carolina also lose in their upcoming primaries, then we'll have good evidence that TARP is playing a huge role in American politics. Bennett, Lincoln, and Barrett voted for the bailout, as did many other Dem and GOP members.

*** First Read' Top 10 most vulnerable incumbents: If it's Friday, it's time for another First Read Top 10 list. Today, pegged to tomorrow's GOP convention in Utah, we look at the folks considered to be this cycle's most endangered incumbents.
1. Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT): Decision Day: Saturday. For the reasons above, he's No. 1 on our list.
2. Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV): D-Day: June 8. Dogged by a messy divorce, cheating allegations, and scandal, Gibbons is hardly his party's choice for governor -- that's Brian Sandoval -- despite being the incumbent.
3. Rep. Ahn "Joseph" Cao (R-LA): D-Day: Nov. 2. He represents a New Orleans district once held by William "Money in the Freezer" Jefferson (D). It's an overwhelmingly African-American district, and Obama won 75% of the vote there in '08.
4. Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA): D-Day: Nov. 2. Polls show him trailing possible GOP nominee Terry Branstad (R) by double-digits, and Culver's campaign has undergone multiple shakeups.
5. Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV): D-Day: Nov. 2. The Senate majority leader has a big target on his back, and he has been trailing a lackluster field of Republicans for nearly a year.
6. Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD): D-Day: Nov. 2. He's from left-leaning Maryland, but this freshman represents a district that McCain won in '08, 59%-40%.
7. Rep. Harry Teague (D-NM): D-Day: Nov. 2. The freshman is a top GOP target and will have a tough time in this swing district against former Rep. Steve Pearce.
8. Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR): D-Day: May 18 or Nov. 2: The moderate senator has a tough primary later this month. And if she survives that, she automatically becomes a top GOP target in the general.
9. Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH 15): D-Day: Nov. 2. In 2008, she eked out a win by less than a percentage point, 45.94%-45.18%. And this isn't 2008…
10. Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL): D-Day: Nov. 2: This might not be the best environment -- Blago, Burris, even Scott Lee Cohen -- to be the incumbent governor of Illinois. 

*** Time to make those Tampa hotel reservations? Looking ahead to 2012, we have a good idea where the Republican Party is going to hold its political convention. How come? Because the RNC had narrowed down its choices to Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Tampa, FL. But with Latinos boycotting Arizona, and with Romney still considered the GOP front-runner (just how many stories on the Mormon Church would the media do if Republicans held their convention in Salt Lake with Romney as the nominee?), it seemingly looks like Tampa is going to be the pick by process of elimination.

*** Set your TiVo: RNC Chairman Michael Steele appears on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," which begins at 1:00 pm ET. 

*** Super Senate Tuesday: In Kentucky, a new poll has Rand Paul leading Trey Grayson by 12 points (44%-32%), and also shows Dan Mongiardo up seven points (39%-32%) over Jack Conway. In Pennsylvania, the chairman of the state Dem party says that Joe Sestak beating Arlen Specter would have "cataclysmic" consequences for the party's ability to win in the general election, Politico writes.

*** More midterm news: In California, Sarah Palin endorsed Carly Fiorina in the Senate GOP race… In Hawaii, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen said he's reevaluating whether to spend additional money in that special congressional election… In Iowa, a new poll shows Chuck Grassley (R) below 50% in his race against Roxanne Conlin (D)… In Massachusetts, Tim Cahill and John Weaver punch back at Haley Barbour… And in North Carolina's Senate run-off, Cal Cunningham has challenged Elaine Marshall to a series of debates.

Countdown to UT GOP convention: 1 day
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 4 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries, and PA-12 special: 11 days
Countdown to HI special election: 15 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 179 days

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Tough talk at Day One of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference… Palin headlines Day Two (she speaks around 1:30 pm ET)… The GOP's rough past two weeks… Bibi's no-show for next week's nuke summit… Bart Stupak to retire… And First Read's Top 10 GOV takeovers.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
NEW ORLEANS -- With President Obama in Prague yesterday, Republicans were gathering thousands of miles away at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference here to deliver a series of verbal uppercuts at his presidency. Day One of the three-day conference began as the giver of the invocation implicitly took a shot at Obama ("True hope and change," he said, "are found only in you" -- God). Then Liz Cheney accused the president of alienating friends like Bibi Netanyahu and Hamid Karzai (really, Karzai?), while appeasing enemies. And in the finale speech last night, Newt Gingrich called President Obama's White House "the most radical administration in America's history" and also a "secular, socialist machine." To be sure, there was a lot of talk about the coming midterms, as well as Gingrich arguing that the GOP must become the party of "yes." But make no mistake: This conference -- not too dissimilar from the Dem ones from 2003-2008 -- was all about the man currently sitting in the White House. 

*** SRLC, day 2: The second day of speeches at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference begins after 1:00 pm ET, with addresses by Sarah Palin, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Palin, of course, is the main attraction. And her speech is only her latest high-profile appearance in the last couple of weeks after stumping for John McCain in Arizona, campaigning against Harry Reid in Nevada, and sharing the stage with Michele Bachmann in Minnesota. Saturday's SRLC line-up, beginning again at 1:00 pm ET, includes Congressman Mike Pence, Rick Santorum, Haley Barbour, Ron Paul, and Michael Steele. The straw poll results will be released on Saturday night around 8:00 pm ET.

*** The GOP's rough last two weeks: Ironically, while Republicans are on the offensive here at the SRLC conference, this has been a rough two weeks for the GOP -- whether it has been the intense focus on Michael Steele and the RNC or the controversy over Bob McDonnell's Confederate History Month proclamation. Want to bet that congressional Republicans can't wait for this Easter/Passover recess to end, just so they can change the story? As it turns out, one thing that links both the Steele and McDonnell stories is race (Steele being the first African-American RNC chair, Steele saying he faces a slimmer margin of error because of his race, McDonnell originally omitting slavery from that Confederate History Month proclamation). The GOP is still trying to find the right tone when it comes to race. Here at SRLC, ex-Rep. J.C. Watts -- the Republican Party's last black congressman -- spoke, giving a powerful story about his rise from a poor boy in Oklahoma to college football star to serving in Congress was possible only in America. On the other hand, not a single speaker mentioned Hurricane Katrina yesterday. 

*** Bibi's no-show: While Katrina wasn't mentioned, one topic that did come up at SRLC was Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision not to participate at next week's nuclear summit in DC. Per NBC's Michelle Perry, an Israeli embassy spokesman said that Netanyahu decided to cancel his plans to attend after receiving several reports that a number of states were going to use the opportunity to criticize Israel for not signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel, Perry adds, will be sending Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor and a number of staff for representation at the conference. At the SRLC last night, when Liz Cheney mentioned Netanyahu's no-show, the GOP audience cheered. 

*** Stupak to retire: First Read has learned that Rep. Bart Stupak (D) is holding a press conference at 12:30 pm ET and despite reports to the contrary, we confirm that Stupak will, in fact, be retiring.  

*** First Read's Top 10 GOV Takeovers: Since it's Friday, we have another First Read Top 10 list -- this time a look at what we consider the Top 10 possible gubernatorial takeovers this cycle. As with our previous Senate and House lists, GOP pick-opportunities dominate our Top 10. The number in parentheses is what the contest ranked the last time we looked at the GOV races back in February.
1. Wyoming (10) – In February, this ranked at the bottom our Top Ten list, because we were unsure if popular Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) was running for re-election or not. Now that we know he's NOT running, a Republican will most definitely win here.
2. Kansas (1) -- Sam Brownback's (R) presidential campaign went nowhere, but it looks like he will be the state's next governor.
3. Hawaii (2) -- With GOP Gov. Linda Lingle term limited, this remains the Democratic Governors Association's best pick-up opportunity. And if Dems possibly lose the HI congressional seat next month, does that help rally the troops in November?
4. Tennessee (5) -- With Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) term limited, Republicans have an excellent shot at winning in this red state. They just need to determine their nominee first.
5. Oklahoma (3) -- Ditto, with Gov. Brad Henry term limited.
6. Michigan (6) -- See Tennessee and Oklahoma, but unlike those two states, Michigan is a blue. A Republican will most likely be the next governor to deal with the state's 14.1% unemployment rate.
7. Vermont (4) -- With GOP Gov. Jim Douglas retiring, this is the DGA's second-best pick-up opportunity.
8. Pennsylvania (7) -- Another blue-purple state that might flip red, with Republican Tom Corbertt leading in the polls.
9. Iowa (8) -- Chet Culver (D) remains the most endangered incumbent governor this cycle. And he's hoping the GOP primary wounds top challenger Terry Brandstad (R).
10. Arizona (unranked) -- A relatively weak GOP incumbent (Jan Brewer), a GOP primary, and Dems already having their candidate (Terry Goddard) are a formula for a Dem pick-up opportunity this November. 

*** Top 10 most competitive GOV races: Meanwhile, these are the gubernatorial races that we see being most competitive come November: CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, MD, MA, MN and OH.

*** More midterm news: In California, Carly Fiorina released her first TV ad… In Florida, Charlie Crist issued a statement saying that he would not run for the Senate as an independent… In Texas, Bill White (D) blasted Rick Perry (R) over education… And in Utah, embattled Sen. Bob Bennett (R) is returning the fire he's getting from his GOP primary opponents.

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 25 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 32 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries: 39 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 207 days

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A pretty positive jobs report for the White House, with employers adding 162,000 in March… Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9.7%... Obama heads to North Carolina -- again -- to talk jobs… President admits the midterms will be tough for Democrats, but there are a couple reasons why 2010 might not be 1994… Obama as media critic… First Read's Top 10 issues… And fundraising news becomes a story in the Lincoln-Halter primary in Arkansas.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Good Friday (for Dems): Last Friday, we said that today's job report would likely determine whether the Obama White House and Democrats would enjoy another good week. The news from the report? It's pretty good -- but with some caveats. In March, the AP writes, employers added 162,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, at 9.7%. But while that 162,000 figure represents the largest monthly jobs gain in three years, it is below the nearly 200,000 that some economists were predicting. What's more, some of that growth comes from temporary Census jobs. That said, the AP reports that private employers added 123,000 jobs, so it would be incorrect to attribute most of the gains to the Census jobs.

*** Carolina on my mind: As has been the pattern when the monthly jobs numbers are released, Obama hits the road -- this time to Charlotte, NC, where he delivers remarks on the economy at 11:55 am ET. This is his third visit to the normally red state since he became president, NBC's Athena Jones points out. And both the vice president and the first lady also have traveled to North Carolina. Keeping North Carolina blue is a mini-obsession of the Obama White House, and while they will claim this has nothing to do with politics, it's apparent that politics is playing a role here. House Minority Leader John Boehner pre-buts Obama's visit with an op-ed in the Charlotte Observer.

*** A difficult midterm season for Dems: At one of his fundraisers last night in Boston, Obama admitted that the midterm elections will be difficult for Democrats. "These November elections … will be hard, partly because this country is still divided. And after 2006 and 2008 we hit a very high watermark in terms of Democratic representation in Congress and governorships and we're in the midst of what is still a very difficult time," Obama said. And the comparisons to 1994, when Democrats lost the House and Senate, are growing. Yesterday's USA Today said that the attitudes from its recent poll were reminiscent to those from '94. And Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg has said that if the midterms were held today, we'd see another 1994.

*** 2010 vs. 1994: But there are now a couple of big differences between now and 1994. First, Democrats are more united now than they were back then (see: health care). As Ron Brownstein writes in his National Journal column, "Democrats remain divided on immigration, climate change, and some other issues, but they have united enough to make this arguably the most productive legislative session for any Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson." Second, retirements have been the dog that hasn't barked, especially this week. Remember that congressional recess periods are times when you normally hear about retirements. Yet we haven't heard about a single one so far during this break. Of course, we still have a week to go. But even now, there are more GOP retirements for House and Senate seats than Dem ones. That said, more of those Democratic retirements are in swing states and districts. But so far, it's not anything like 1994. 

*** Media Critic-In-Chief: We're the first to admit that the media's intense 24-7 coverage of the Obama White House -- Who's up, who's down? Is the president FDR or Jimmy Carter? What is Sarah Palin saying about Obama via Facebook? Is this make-or-break for the history books? -- hasn't produced some of the greatest moments in political journalism. And we admit that as cautious as we try to be, we're guilty of some of this, too. But what's equally interesting here is how much Obama clearly HATES the political chatter to the point that he, himself, can't stop talking about it. "You have to love some of the pundits in Washington," Obama said yesterday in Maine. "Every day since I signed reform into law, there's another poll or headline that says 'Nation still divided on health care reform.' 'Polls haven't changed yet.' Well, yeah -- it just happened last week!" He then added, "Can you imagine if some of these reporters were working on a farm? You planted some seeds and they came out the next day and they looked and they said, 'Nothing's happened! There's no crop! We're gonna starve! Oh no!"

*** Crippled or The Comeback Kid? Of course, this isn't the first time Obama has criticized how the media covers him and Washington politics. Last month while campaigning for health care in Virginia, he said: "What [cable stations] like to talk about is the politics of the vote. What does this mean in November?  What does it mean to the poll numbers? Is this more of an advantage for Democrats or Republicans? What's it going to mean for Obama? Will his presidency be crippled, or will he be the comeback kid?" And the president repeated his "farm" jokes at both fundraisers in Boston last night. The president's shots at the media really irk conservatives, who believe (without as much evidence as they think they have) that somehow the White House gets a free pass constantly from the media. The fact is this: Everyone hates to have their every move covered, whether they are liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat, a 0 handicap or an 18 handicap, a .255 hitter or a .330 hitter; a two-time Super Bowl winning QB or a career backup.

*** First Read's Top 10 Issues: If it's Friday's, it's time for another First Read Top 10 list -- this time a look at what we consider to be the Top 10 issues/themes playing out so far in the midterm races we're following.
1. Washington: With less than 20% of the country approving of Congress' job, it's not surprising that everyone from Rick Perry and Robin Carnahan to Blanche Lincoln and Michael Bennet are running against -- or away from -- Washington.
2. Economy/Jobs: While this is undoubtedly the most important issue affecting the country and Obama's political health, as well as the one that is most impacting Democrats' midterm prospects, we've noticed more candidates running against Washington than on the economy so far. Will this change by August?
3. TARP/Bailouts: If their opponent voted for the TARP back in the fall of 2008, you're seeing candidates -- left and right, from Bill Halter to those competing against Utah Sen. Bob Bennett -- reminding folks about that vote.
4. Health Care: Whether it's Democrats justifying their votes for the legislation, Democrats arguing over the law (Conway vs. Mongiardo), Republicans trying to repeal it, or those backing away from repeal (Mark Kirk), health care is a potent issue. But does it recede a month or two from now? Right now, it's MOST pronounced in any race featuring a sitting attorney general.
5. Wall Street: While Republicans and conservatives are railing against TARP, Democrats and progressives are going after Wall Street. Martha Coakley tried to seize on this issue earlier this year, but it didn't save her. Still, anti-Wall Street sentiment could really resonate as financial reform heats up.
6. Barack Obama: In Republican primaries, we've seen Marco Rubio criticize Charlie Crist for embracing the president last year; in Dem primaries, we've seen candidates like Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak compete to see who is the more loyal to the president; and in Arizona, we've seen J.D. Hayworth and John McCain battle over Obama's citizenship. The open question is how much Obama becomes an issue once GENERAL elections get started. Do Republicans run against Congress and Pelosi or Obama or try to fuse them all together?
7. Establishment vs. Anti-Establishment: We're seeing this story play out in Kentucky (Grayson vs. Paul) as well as in New Hampshire (Ayotte vs. Lamontagne and Binnie).
8. 9/11/National Security: We're a long way removed from 2001 or even 2004. But 9/11 and security politics remain an issue, particularly in the Grayson vs. Paul primary in Kentucky.
9. Competence: At a time when states are facing budget deficits, gubernatorial candidates across the country -- Rick Snyder in Michigan ("one tough nerd"), Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman in California, and Terry Branstad in Iowa -- are playing up their experience or smarts. This is a theme we expect to see move up our list as November draws closer.
10. Immigration: We're also a long way removed from the immigration battles of 2006 and 2007, but the issue could easily reappear if the Obama White House and congressional Democrats try to push it through Congress this summer. This is the dog that hasn't bit yet beyond some isolated incidents in races out West.

*** Super Senate Tuesday: In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln's campaign announced that it had raised more than $1 million in the 1st quarter, which was news Bill Halter's campaign (which raised $2 million in one month) pounced on. Still, Lincoln has $4 million in the bank. One thing is for sure: Money isn't going to be a reason Halter comes up short.… In Kentucky, Democrats Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo participated in a candidate forum, where the two clashed over health care (Conway is for the health law, while Mongiardo is against it).

*** Other midterm news: In Illinois, there's breaking news that Alexi Giannoulias' family bank "loaned a pair of Chicago crime figures about $20 million during a 14-month period when Giannoulias was a senior loan officer." (And the bank hasn't officially shut down yet, that happens later this month)… And in New York, Rick Lazio says he isn't dropping his gubernatorial bid to run for the Senate.

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 32 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 39 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries: 46 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 214 days

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Did Democrats get their groove back?... The most important thing to watch post-health care: the middle of the electorate… The House last night approved final passage of the reconciliation bill, which now goes to Obama's desk… Obama and Russia prez to verbally agree to new START treaty by phone today at 10:00 am ET… It looks like we're about to have another SCOTUS nomination fight… McCain and Palin -- reunited and it feels so good… Palin then heads to Searchlight, NV… What about Bob (Bennett)?... And First Read's Top 10 primaries.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The week that was: Did Democrats get their groove back after this week's passage of the most expansive social legislation in decades? It sure looks like it. President Obama had a pep in his step in Iowa yesterday; Democratic members of Congress have looked downright giddy; the Internet Left, despite its disappointment over the past year, appears more energized; and Democratic candidates are playing offense on health care. (Paul Hodes' campaign for New Hampshire Senate fired off this email on Wednesday: "If elected, would Kelly Ayotte tell New Hampshire's small businesses to give their tax credits back?") Of course, one week doesn't erase the Democratic Party's problems, and the biggest news for Dems could very well come next Friday, when the March job numbers are released. But party energy is important. The hallmark of the last three change elections -- in 1994, 2006, and 2008 -- was not just enthusiasm inside the party OUT OF POWER, but a depressed base for the party IN power. 

*** Stuck in the middle with you: Yet the biggest political question might be this: How is the middle viewing all of this -- not only the legislation, but also the reported death threats/vandalism and yesterday's back-and-forth over the threats/vandalism? Much of Obama's speech in Iowa yesterday appeared directed at the center. "Leaders of the Republican Party, they called the passage of this bill 'Armageddon,'" the president said yesterday. "Armageddon. End of freedom as we know it. So after I signed the bill, I looked around to see if there [were] any asteroids falling or some cracks opening up in the Earth. It turned out it was a nice day. Birds were chirping. Folks were strolling down the Mall. People still have their doctors." Indeed, if they had to do it all over again, would GOP leaders have described the health legislation in such apocalyptic terms (Armageddon, socialism, the death of freedom)? Because what if those things don't happen? GOP strategist Steve Lombardo says Republicans should not take the Democratic bait right now and continue this health care debate; instead, he advises them to focus on the economy.

*** Final passage: Around 9:00 pm ET last night, the House approved final passage of the reconciliation "fixes" bill by a 220-207 vote. The controversial (but also entertaining) Rep. Alan Grayson (D) cast the final 220th vote, NBC's Shawna Thomas notes. House Speaker Pelosi actually kept the roll call open so Grayson could cast his vote. And in true form, Thomas adds, Grayson came running down the aisle extremely late looking like Big Bird to a loud ovation from his colleagues. He then cast his vote, Speaker Pelosi closed the call, and health-care reform passed the House for the final time. Now what? An enrollment ceremony takes place on Capitol Hill this morning, and then the legislation heads to the White House for Obama's signature. The president will sign the bill sometime early next week.

*** Let's get it START-ed…: Breaking news: The new START nuclear disarmament treaty will be verbally agreed to by President Obama and Russia's president by phone at 10:00 am ET, sources tell NBC News. Signing will take place in Prague in early April. More details to come…

*** Let's get ready to rumble … again: Well, it looks like we might have another SCOTUS nomination fight on our hands soon. The New York Times: "Although Justice Stevens has not disclosed his intentions, he has suggested he may announce as soon as next month plans to step down after 35 years on the bench, providing President Obama his second opportunity to shape the nation's highest court. A new nomination could set off another charged ideological battle heading into the fall midterm campaign." By the way, will Obama make his first recess appointment, with NLRB pick Craig Becker? 

*** Reunited And It Feels So Good: John McCain and Sarah Palin are back together again. Today, Palin attends a rally for McCain in Tucson at 3:00 pm ET. According to the AP, they'll also "hold a fundraiser on Friday at the same Phoenix hotel where they conceded the presidential election on Nov. 4, 2008." And they will campaign again on Saturday in Mesa at noon ET. McCain's GOP primary opponent, J.D. Hayworth, appears on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," which airs at 1:00 pm ET. 

*** Searchlight, here we come: Also on Saturday, Palin will speak at a Tea Party Express rally in Searchlight, NV, Harry Reid's hometown, in an effort to drum up support to defeat Reid in November. (USA Today reports that this is part of a 44-stop tour.) Reid spokesman Jon Summers tells First Read that Reid will be at the Clark Country Shooting Park in Las Vegas that day, so he'll miss the event. "Wayne LaPierre of the NRA will also be joining him as his guest," Summers adds. "Reid helped get the land and the $60 million needed to build this facility, which is the largest facility of its kind." The Reid campaign also will be serving tea and donut holes (har, har) to the Tea Party activists.

*** What about Bob? While McCain vs. Hayworth and Crist vs. Rubio (the two men debate on Sunday) have gotten most the political world's attention, the GOP senator who looks to be in the most trouble is Utah Sen. Bob Bennett, who gets front-page treatment in the New York Times. "For all the anger directed at President Obama and his party from the right, especially after the passage of health care legislation, the first opportunities for Tea Party members and the groups seeking to channel their antigovernment energy into electoral politics are in Republican primaries. Mr. Bennett is especially exposed to the grass-roots anger." Bennett's biggest offense, in the eyes of Club for Growth and other conservative activists? Reaching across the aisle to work on a bipartisan health plan.

*** First Read's Top 10 Primaries: If it's Friday, it's another First Read Top 10 list -- this time our look at the Top 10 primaries this midterm season.
1. FL SEN -- R (1): This remains No. 1 on our list -- due to all the back-and-forth -- but we're probably not the only ones who feel it might be moving down a spot or two next month
2. AR SEN -- D (unranked): A new Research 2000 poll shows Bill Halter trailing Blanche Lincoln by double digits, but this is now the Dem primary to watch
3. KY SEN -- R (4): Establishment (Trey Grayson) vs. the grassroots (Rand Paul), Duke (where Paul went to med school) vs. Kentucky, what's not to like?
4. UT SEN -- R (6): Tuesday's caucuses were not good news for incumbent Bob Bennett
5. PA SEN -- D (3): Joe Sestak has failed to catch on in the polls, and it falls to our second-best Dem primary
6. KY SEN -- R (unranked): Another KY primary where Duke (Jack Conway's alma mater) vs. Kentucky (Dan Mongiardo's) has played a role, and Conway is now trying to make health care the issue in the race
7. SC GOV -- R (7): Front-runner AG Henry McMaster got plenty of press with his lawsuit against health care, so did Nikki Haley with her Romney endorsement
8. AZ SEN -- R (5): John McCain -- right now -- has done everything right so far, including today's campaigning with Palin, and Hayworth has yet to hang on.
9. CO SEN -- D (unranked): Has Andrew Romanoff found a reason for Colorado Dems to fire Michael Bennet?
10. NV SEN -- R (unranked): The Senate field is still lackluster, but both Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian are still leading Harry Reid in general-election hypotheticals

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 39 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 46 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries: 53 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 221 days

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Yesterday's Senate parliamentarian ruling forces 1) House Dems to trust the Senate on following through with reconciliation and 2) the White House to perhaps consider postponing Obama's upcoming overseas trip…And breaking news, per the AP -- the trip is being delayed... Liberal group goes up with ads motivating African-American voters to back the health-care bill… David Brooks breaks down Obama… And First Read breaks down the Top 10 TV ads of the 2010 cycle (so far).

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Trust and the trip: Yesterday, the Senate parliamentarian ruled that President Obama must sign the Senate health-care bill into law before Democrats can use reconciliation to make the fixes to the bill. That means a couple things. First, House Democrats -- before voting for the Senate bill -- are going to want some concrete assurances that the Senate will actually follow through on the fixes via reconciliation. We've heard that House Dems may want something in writing, LITERALLY -- perhaps a letter signed by at least 51 Senate Democrats pledging to make these fixes. Second, the parliamentarian's ruling might mean that Obama is going to have to postpone his trip late next week to Indonesia and Australia. Even if the House is able to pass the Senate bill by the March 18 deadline before he's set to go abroad, just think about the House-Senate trust issues if Obama is away while the Senate is working on reconciliation. And here's breaking news, per the AP: "US President Barack Obama delaying Asia trip from March 18 to March 21 to work on health care." So there you go...

*** A matter of priorities: Why the delay? It would have been a P.R. disaster if the president goes through with this trip before health care is finished. (If Obama is selling health care's passage to Democrats as essential to his agenda and his presidency, then what message does it send to these Democrats if Obama heads to Indonesia and Australia before it's finished?) There's no doubt that good relations with those two countries matter, and that it's a good thing for the president to travel there, particularly Indonesia, where there is a good counter-terrorism story to tell. But if the only sense of urgency to go next week is because of the family spring break holiday, then postponing seems like an easy call, right?

*** Health-care air war heats up, part 2: Yesterday, we noted the round of health-care TV ads popping up with the finish line in sight. Well, the Democratic-leaning group Americans United for Change says it will announce today a $500,000 TV and radio campaign to motivate African-American voters in support of the health-care bill. Here's one TV ad that Americans United for Change will run beginning tomorrow on BET. By the way, did anyone notice that one high-profile health business that had been considered an opponent of the president's health-care plan -- the Mayo Clinic -- is now indicating support to the new fixes?

*** Who is Barack Obama? In his New York Times column today, David Brooks has an intriguing summary of who Barack Obama is -- and who he isn't. Despite his disagreements with the president on health care, the debt, and the role of government in society, Brooks calls Obama "the most realistic and reasonable major player in Washington." He adds, "Liberals are wrong to call him weak and indecisive. He's just not always pursuing their aims. Conservatives are wrong to call him a big-government liberal. That's just not a fair reading of his agenda." And Brooks concludes, "We live in a country in which many people live in information cocoons in which they only talk to members of their own party and read blogs of their own sect. They come away with perceptions fundamentally at odds with reality, fundamentally misunderstanding the man in the Oval Office." We can only imagine how the left and right in the blogosphere will find ways to somehow beat the living daylights out of Brooks for this column.

*** First Read's Top 10 TV ads: If it's Friday, it's time for another First Read Top 10 -- this time a look at the top TV ads of the cycle (so far):
1. "Demon Sheep." Need we say more? (Caveat: It's a Web video rather than an actual TV ad.) 2. "One Tough Nerd:" Michigan gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder, a former Gateway exec, has made a splash with his quirky "One Tough Nerd" ad campaign; he even aired one of the spots during the Super Bowl.
3. Frankenstein's Coroner: This had to be nastiest race for coroner ever: "Igor, Igor, I need a heart, a spleen and a liver for tonight's sale," one says to another. "Yes, Dr. Minyard," comes the response. This is for Orleans Parish Coroner. The man running the ad, by the way, a Dwight McKenna, is a convicted tax evader who served nine months in prison. As it turns out, Minyard won the race last month.
4. "I Have The Power…": Majority Leader Harry Reid, the most vulnerable incumbent senator in the country, is betting, in part, on this line to get reelected: "America's most powerful senator, Harry Reid."
5. Birthers, Conspiracies, and Tea Parties, Oh My: McCain attacks Hayworth for identifying with birthers (Like "Demon Sheep," this is a Web video.)
6. "My Only Regret Is That We Hired Him": By far, the most brutal ad of the 2010 season. This spot, by challenger Dan Hynes, featured an old clip by late Chicago Mayor Harold Washington saying he wished he had fired Pat Quinn, who's now governor of Illinois. Quinn won the primary, but ouch…
7. The Queen: Here's another tough ad -- by Rick Perry against Kay Bailey Hutchison. Perry criticized her bank-bailout vote, as well as being the "Queen of Earmarks." The ad's kicker: "Sen. Hutchison, voting with Washington since 1993." Perry, of course, won earlier this month.
8. There Will Be Oil: The League of Conservation Voters has this tough ad against Roy Blunt in Missouri (as well as against Michele Bachmann in Minnesota): "There's a stain on Roy Blunt's record," the ad says. Then a character supposed to be Blunt shakes hands with voters and leaves oil stains on all of them.
9. The Outsider: Another vulnerable incumbent, Blanche Lincoln, plays the outside game. In her kick-off ad, facing a primary Democratic challenge from Bill Halter, she separates herself from Washington -- and her own party.
10. Blue, 42, Hut, Hut: Running from Lincoln's left in Arkansas is Bill Halter, who uses a football coach to make his point.

*** More midterm news: California and Nevada have their filing deadlines today… In Florida, Rudy Giuliani today campaigns with gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum (R)... In Kentucky, Trey Grayson (R) has a new Web site, whose banner reads, "Rand Paul: Strange Ideas" and whose bottom says, "Rand Paul for Senate? Are you kidding?"… And in Missouri, Politico says Robin Carnahan (D) is attempting to position herself to the right of Congressman Roy Blunt on fiscal issues by calling for a ban on all earmarks."

Countdown to IA, UT filing deadlines: 7 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 235 days

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The Democrats experience a pretty rough week, although a better-than-expected jobs report lessens the bad news… Republicans convince Nathan Deal to postpone his retirement (increasing the Dems' magic number on health care to 217), while Democrats continue to herd cats… Is the Obama administration changing its mind on the KSM trial?… Looking numerically at McCain's voting record… First Read's Top 10 House takeovers (and also Top 10 toss-ups and majority-makers)… And William Delahunt becomes the latest House Dem to announce retirement.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Dems' rough week: Simply put, this has been a rough week for Democrats. They now have a competitive Senate primary in Arkansas, which makes the party's chances of holding the Arkansas Senate seat look even less likely. Rep. Charlie Rangel had to step down as Ways and Means Committee chairman due to ethics problems. Rep. Eric Massa announced he was retiring, and no matter the reason, it gives Republicans an excellent pick-up opportunity in that Upstate New York district -- and also cements the "ethics problems hurting Democrats" storyline. And the capstone: Last night, we learned that Rep. William Delahunt is retiring, putting another Democratic House seat up for grabs (although Dems have a much better chance of holding on to that seat than Massa's).

*** But on the bright side…: Still, the week wasn't all bad news for Democrats. The Bunning blockade was a P.R. disaster for congressional Republicans. The new jobs report (the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9.7%, with 36,000 jobs lost in February) was better than expected, though it's more evidence that Dems can't catch a break (had it not been for the snow in the Northeast, the report could have been VERY good news). And, despite the Democrats' difficulty herding cats on health care (see below), everything we're hearing suggests that they're on course to pass health care. And they better: If Obama does NOT get health care, it'll paralyze the party and the president for the rest of the year.

*** Let's make a deal: If you want to see the difference between Democrats and Republicans -- or more accurately, the difference between the majority and minority parties -- just consider what happened yesterday. On the Republican side, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor was able to convince Rep. Nathan Deal (R) to postpone his decision to resign from Congress to concentrate solely on his race for Georgia governor. That decision -- putting the party before the personal -- now means House Democrats will now need 217 votes to pass health care, not 216. On the other hand yesterday, Democrats were hearing Rep. Bart Stupak (D) say that he and a handful of other House Dems would vote against the health measure if he didn't get his way on abortion. One other thing: The White House's deadline for the House to pass health care by March 18 may seem like a bit much for House Dems. But how does delay get them MORE votes? More time equals more public debate, no? What makes Dems think if they can't get the votes by 3/18 that they CAN get them by 3/25?

*** Backing down on KSM? The Washington Post has this scoop: "President Obama's advisers are nearing a recommendation that Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the self-proclaimed mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, be prosecuted in a military tribunal, administration officials said, a step that would reverse Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr.'s plan to try him in civilian court in New York City. The president's advisers feel increasingly hemmed in by bipartisan opposition to a federal trial in New York and demands, mainly from Republicans, that Mohammed and his accused co-conspirators remain under military jurisdiction, officials said." Of course, this does beg the question of the issue of "politics influencing the Justice Department." The only reason this is happening is due to politics. 

*** McCain's more conservative record: Today and tomorrow, John McCain campaigns in Arizona with Sen. Scott Brown (R). And you could say that McCain has done everything possible to protect his right flank as he faces a GOP primary challenge in this political environment. Besides stumping with Brown, McCain has embraced Sarah Palin (who campaigns for McCain later), and he has built up a more conservative voting record. How more conservative has it become? According to National Journal's vote ratings, McCain's composite conservative score in 1995 was 70.2, meaning that he was more conservative than 70.2% of the Senate (putting him in the middle of the GOP pack). Here are the other years:

1996: 75.3
1997: 71.5
1998: 68.3
1999: 67.7
2000: 61.7
2001: 66.8
2002: 59.8
2003: 62
2004: 51.7
2005: 59.2
2006: 56.7
2007: NA, missed too many votes while campaigning for president
2008: NA; missed too many votes while campaigning for president
2009: 84.3.

*** All about Obama and the Dem Congress? If you make those numbers above into a linear graph, you can see that McCain became steadily less conservative -- especially during the Bush years -- before racking up his highest conservative rating last year. McCain spokeswoman Brooke Buchanan tells First Read that McCain's more conservative score in 2009 shouldn't be surprising given the stimulus, omnibus, and health-care votes. "We are in different times," she said. "We are right to this Congress and we are right to this administration." She also says that McCain's conservative score in 2009 came before J.D. Hayworth officially entered the race this year. And she adds that McCain's votes against the Bush tax cuts, his support for immigration reform, etc. is reflected in his lower conservative scores from 2001 to 2006.

*** First Read's Top 10 House Takeovers: If it's Friday, it's another First Read Top 10 list -- this time our look at what we consider the 10 most likely congressional districts to switch parties in November:

1. LA-2 (R-Cao): The Vietnamese-American, who surprisingly won this African-American majority district that was held by convicted William Jefferson, has been a Democratic target since his 2008 victory and is facing an uphill battle.
2. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon): The retirement of Democrat Bart Gordon makes this GOP-leaning district a nearly automatic pick-up for Republicans.
3. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle): Mike Castle's decision to run for the Senate gives Democrats an excellent chance of winning Delaware's sole congressional seat.
4. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon): Once again, a Senate committee's gain is the congressional committee's loss. Rep. Charlie Melancon's decision to run against David Vitter for Senate gives the GOP another good takeover opportunity.
5. IN-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth): Brad Ellsworth's decision to run for the Senate seat opened up by Evan Bayh's exit puts this once-longtime GOP seat potentially back in the Republican column.
6. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa): Whatever freshman Eric Massa's reason for not running for reelection, his retirement gives the GOP a very good chance in this Upstate New York district McCain carried in '08.
7. MD-1 (D-Kratovil): Freshman Frank Kratovil, who eked out a narrow victory in '08, looks to be in danger in this traditionally Republican district. Obama may have won the state overwhelmingly, but McCain won the district 58%-40%. And there won't be an Obama surge this time.
8. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk): The third-best chance for Democrats this cycle is Mark Kirk's old seat; Kirk is running for the Senate.
9. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore): Another retirement. Dennis Moore's decision to not run for re-election has given the GOP yet another target. And Democrats still don't have a candidate. Some think the best Dem could be Moore's wife, but she hasn't committed.
10. OH-15 (D-Kilroy): This perennial target seat could be switching hands, as the incumbent Democrat here underperformed Obama in 2008

*** Top 10 House Toss-Ups: Here, in alphabetical order by state, are what we consider to be the 10 most competitive House districts, all of which are held by Democrats: CO-4 (D-Markey); ID-1 (D-Minnick); NM-2 (D-Teague); NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes); NV-3 (D-Titus); OH-1 (D-Driehaus); PA-7 (D-Open-Sestak);TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner); VA-5 (D-Perriello); and WA-3 (D-Open-Baird).

*** Top 10 Majority Makers: And here, in alphabetical order by state, are what we consider to be 10 districts -- where Democrats are currently favored -- that could tell us whether or not Republicans will win back control of the House: AZ-8 (D-Giffords); IA-3 (D-Boswell); MO-4 (D-Skelton); NY-1 (D-Bishop); OH-16 (D-Boccieri); OH-18 (D-Space); PA-8 (D-Murphy); SC-5 (D-Spratt); WV-1 (D-Mollohan); and WI-8 (D-Kagen).

*** More midterm news: In Arkansas, on the same day that Bill Clinton's spokesman said that the former president was backing Blanche Lincoln in her Democratic primary, EMILY's List said it wouldn't be helping the incumbent Democrat… In Massachusetts, Rep. William Delahunt (D) announced his retirement; the Rothenberg Political Report moved the district from "Safe" to "Democrat Favored"… And in Wyoming, Gov. Dave Freudenthal's (D) announcement that he won't seek another term gives Republicans an excellent shot at taking over the governor's mansion.

*** Programming notes: MSNBC's Daily Rundown interviews White House economic adviser Christina Romer on the jobs report. And MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" has Democratic Sens. Chris Dodd and Carl Levin, and new Ways and Means Chairman Sandy Levin (Carl's brother).

Countdown to AR filing deadline: 3 days
Countdown to OR, PA filing deadlines: 4 days
Countdown to CA, NV filing deadlines: 7 days
Countdown to IA, UT filing deadlines: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 242 days

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Yesterday's Blair House Project was an extraordinary (if unproductive) exercise… House Ethics Committee admonishes Charlie Rangel… GOP Sen. Jim Bunning launches one-man filibuster against extending unemployment insurance… Hillary Clinton makes news -- and few notice… First Read's Top 10 primaries… David Paterson sees political buzzards circling above him… And Sanford vs. Sanford to be televised.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The Blair House Project: We learned that televising all congressional proceedings clearly isn't the solution to Washington's ills, huh? Still, yesterday's Blair House Project was a pretty extraordinary exercise. President Obama, who essentially served as moderator-in-chief, used the health-care summit to make the case that the Democratic health-care bills aren't radical (if they don't have a public option, how do they represent a government takeover?), and that they included a fair number of GOP ideas. Much like he did at his State of the Union, Obama also tried to elevate himself above the partisan fray, even if he engaged in it himself (example: his testy exchange with McCain). As for Republicans, they used the summit to produce their ideas on health care, as well as voice all of their complaints about the Dem health-care bills in one setting.

*** The silly clock and the partisan Old Bulls: One thing that was crystal clear: The Republicans' prep session helped them stay on the same page, while there was an uneven relationship between the president and congressional Democrats. But the GOP's beef about Obama (119 minutes) and Democrats (114 minutes) getting more combined time to speak than they did (110 minutes) was pretty silly, given that everyone got to talk plenty at the seven-hour summit. Overall, the congressional leaders -- Pelosi, Reid, Boehner, McConnell -- acted the most partisan, while less high-profile members -- like Paul Ryan, Tom Coburn, George Miller -- came across as more appealing.

*** Moving forward: All that said, we're not sure what the summit accomplished from the White House's perspective other than -- as NBC's Savannah Guthrie pointed out yesterday -- to cleanse the process for the public, so the White House and congressional Democrats could push the final reform through via reconciliation and not have it look like they did it behind closed doors. Obama himself said that the public doesn't really care about process (although the furor over the "Cornhusker Kickback" is evidence to the contrary. "I do think [the American people] want a vote on how we're going to move this forward," he said. "A majority vote makes sense." In his concluding remarks, Obama asked for the GOP to do "some soul-searching" to see if they would come up with compromises to insure more Americans. And after a month or so, if they were unable to do so, he said that Democrats would go ahead with their plans. In one sense, the entire summit was a debate, complete with both party committees sending out fact-checks and "what they're saying" about the performances.

*** Rangel gets admonished: One of the participants at yesterday's summit, Charlie Rangel, got some unwelcome news afterward. Roll Call reports that Rangel "acknowledged Thursday the House ethics committee has admonished him for accepting privately funded travel to the Caribbean in 2007 and 2008 that apparently violated House rules -- but he denied wrongdoing on his part. The House ethics panel announced Thursday night that five other Members who attended the same trips inadvertently violated House rules, and said all six lawmakers must repay the costs of the trip. Rangel announced in a Thursday night press conference that the ethics committee is admonishing him for the trips, concluding that the he is responsible for two of his staffers who failed to report that corporate money helped fund them." Does Pelosi stand by Rangel, especially if more ethics news comes out about him? She's always been loyal to the old bulls, stubbornly so. Remember, this is only the beginning of Rangel's problems, there's more to come on this investigation.

*** Bunning goes for a shutout: Roll Call also notes that GOP Sen. Jim Bunning launched a one-man filibuster last night against legislation aimed at extending unemployment benefits and health insurance help for the jobless, many of which expire on Sunday. "Although Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill) is expected to resume attempts to pass the extensions Friday morning, Bunning has said he will continue to object, and with lawmakers gone for the weekend, there is little chance the bill will pass before Sunday. Bunning refused to allow the bill to pass unless Democrats agreed to pay for it with unused stimulus funds. Although Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had worked out a deal to vote on Bunning's funding plan, Bunning refused to go along with it." 

*** Hillary in the news: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has made some interesting news in the past couple of days, which got lost in all the focus on the health care summit. First, in testimony on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, she argued that the political gridlock and partisanship was hurting America's image abroad. "People don't understand the way our system operates, they just don't get it," she said, per the Washington Post. "And their view does color whether the United States ... is in a position going forward to demonstrate the kind of unity and strength and effectiveness that I think we have to in this very complex and dangerous world." Then yesterday -- ironically -- she engaged in some partisanship of her own by criticizing former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. "I served on the budget committee in the Senate, and I remember, as vividly as if it were yesterday, when we had a hearing in which Alan Greenspan came and justified increasing spending and cutting taxes, saying that we didn't really need to pay down the debt -- outrageous in my view," she said.

*** First Read's Top 10 Primaries: If it's Friday, it's time for another First Read Top 10 list. With Texas holding its primaries on Tuesday, we take a look at what we consider the Top 10 primaries. The number in parenthesis is our ranking from last month.

1. FL SEN -- R (1): The great Crist-vs.-Rubio primary has gotten even better for junkies, with the skirmish over Rubio's credit card statements and his upcoming travel to South Carolina.
2. TX GOV -- R (2): The Perry-vs.-Hutchison contest began as a primary for the ages. Does it end with a whimper on Tuesday?
3. PA SEN -- D (3): Specter vs. Sestak remains the best Democratic primary of the cycle, though Sestak has not yet done the push that some might have expected by now. 
4. KY SEN -- R (9): The Trey Grayson vs. Rand Paul primary is the biggest mover on our list. Grayson is on the offensive -- on the issue of coal.
5. AZ SEN -- R (5): McCain holds a sizable lead over J.D. Hayworth in the polls. But this primary is on our radar screen -- and others' -- because of McCain's prominence as the party's 2008 presidential nominee.
6. NY SEN -- D (7): Harold Ford Jr. still isn't officially in the race to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. But it's providing plenty of conflict and entertainment. 
7. SC GOV -- R (6): The best primary Washington political reporters aren't talking about. But everyone will want to get to know the winner as the 2012 presidential race approaches.
8. UT SEN -- R (10): As we mentioned last month, this is the best GOP ideological fight no one is talking about. As Fletch once said, "The story IS Utah, Frank" 
9. NV SEN and GOV -- R (unlisted): The Senate field is lackluster, but both Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian are leading Harry Reid in general-election hypotheticals. And incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons is trailing challenger Brian Sandoval.
10. KS SEN -- R (unlisted): GOP Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are duking it out to replace Sam Brownback, who's running for governor.  

*** Political buzzards circling over Paterson: It seems like it's just a matter of time before New York Gov. David Paterson (D) announces that he won't be running for election after all. Here are the latest developments since the New York Times reported that Paterson had personally intervened in a domestic violence episode involving one of his top aides: 1) Paterson's top criminal justice adviser has resigned; 2) New York Rep. Steve Israel (D) has called for him to drop out of his gubernatorial race, 3) Rep. Nita Lowey has called for him to resign, and 4) Paterson himself is mulling whether to quit his race. 

*** More midterm news: In Florida, a Florida Sun Sentinel editorial board writer reports that Charlie Crist is laying the groundwork for an indie bid… In Kentucky, Trey Grayson has another TV ad hitting Rand Paul… Today's the filing deadline in North Carolina… And in Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter is whacking Joe Sestak for "mistreating his staff with miserly salaries."

*** The revolution -- er, divorce -- will be televised: Finally, the Charleston Post and Courier reports that today's divorce proceedings between South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Jenny Sanford will be televised. "Their divorce proceedings will be open to TV cameras and first lady Jenny Sanford will have to take the witness stand to say why her marriage to Gov. Mark Sanford is over. Court officials say various South Carolina television outlets have shown an interest in broadcasting the final hearing of Sanford v. Sanford live on Friday from the Charleston County Judicial Center, possibly live. She has to be there; he does not. Gov. Sanford has the option of filing an affidavit in lieu of an appearance."

Countdown to TX primary: 4 days
Countdown to AR filing deadline: 10 days
Countdown to OR, PA filing deadlines: 11 days
Countdown to CA, NV filing deadlines: 14 days
Countdown to IA, UT filing deadlines: 21 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 249 days

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Obama finishes his two-day western swing in Nevada, where he'll announce money for housing assistance… Bush and Cheney make a comeback at CPAC… Pawlenty, Pence, Bachmann, and Ron Paul give the big speeches at CPAC's second day… First Read's Top 10 Senate takeovers… And the NYT one again body-slams David Paterson -- this time on the eve of his campaign kick off.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** You're so money … and you don't even know it: On a Friday that will largely be dominated by Tiger Woods and his statement to the media, President Obama finishes his two-day western swing (a.k.a. the "Save The Senate" swing). Today in Nevada, Obama -- with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in tow -- holds a town hall in Henderson at 1:00 pm ET. Then, at 2:55 pm ET, he delivers remarks to the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce and the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (where we'll probably hear something related to the Vegas furor at Obama's past remarks urging folks not to blow their kids' college money in Las Vegas). Like Colorado, which Obama visited yesterday, Nevada is a swing state that usually leans Republican that Democrats turned blue in 2008. And, like Colorado, it's a state where Democrats look to be in trouble this November, whether it's Reid's re-election or the gubernatorial race featuring Reid's son, Rory. 

*** Focusing on housing: Today in Henderson, Obama is announcing funding to help families in the states -- like Nevada -- that have been hit the hardest in the aftermath of the housing bubble. Today's announcement is a reminder that one of the under-performing parts of the economic rescue plan that Obama rolled out last year is his housing plan, and it brings attention to one of the parts of the economic crisis that hasn't hit bottom yet. And the White House knows all of this. Part of the under-performance has to do with problems in the credit markets and banks making it harder to refinance, even as the government tried to create incentives for lending. So this program being unveiled today is an attempt to use some TARP money and directly intervene in the hardest-hit places for housing and unemployment.

*** Out with the new and in with the old? As Republicans and conservatives begin envisioning taking back control of Congress -- and maybe even the White House in 2012 -- there's a reason why they've embraced Marco Rubio, Scott Brown, and the Tea Party movement: They have nothing to do with the GOP's past. After all, they didn't inherit a surplus and turn it into a trillion-dollar deficit; they didn't make the case that Iraq had WMD; and they didn't get blamed for their response to Hurricane Katrina. But a funny thing happened at the first day of CPAC yesterday. First, Dick Cheney made a surprise appearance, declaring that Obama will be a one-term president. And then Mitt Romney devoted part of his speech to defend George W. Bush's legacy. "I am convinced that history will judge President Bush far more kindly," he said.

*** Miss me yet? There is no doubt that being associated with Bush or Cheney is no longer as politically toxic as it used to be. Former Bush official Rob Portman's doing well in his race for Ohio Senate; former Rove protégé Tim Griffin is running for Congress and is currently favored; and both Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie were able to blunt Dems using Bush to attack them. But that doesn't mean Bush and Cheney are suddenly much more popular than they were a year ago. In our NBC/WSJ poll last month, Bush had a 30%-51% fav/unfav rating, which is virtually unchanged from his last days in office. And in last June's NBC/WSJ poll, Cheney's fav/unfav was 26%-48%. But with the GOP base, which has no interest in hearing apologies, praising Bush and Cheney works.

*** Where was the response? Remember the campaign mantra to never let an attack go without a response? Well, yesterday we heard tons of attacks on President Obama at CPAC -- Cheney calling him a one-termer, Romney describing him a failure, Romney blasting Obama-care (when it's virtually identical to Romney-care in Massachusetts) -- and there was no response from the DNC or any other Democratic group. In fact, the liberal organization that perhaps pushed back the hardest yesterday was Media Matters. In this era of the perpetual political campaign, are the Obama White House and DNC going to give Republicans -- including potential 2012 opponents -- a free pass? *** UPDATE *** DNC Communications Director Brad Woodhouse emails First Read that it did release this statement on Romney (which we missed or didn't receive). "Mitt Romney's address to CPAC today – and the overwhelming greeting that attendees gave to Dick Cheney  - makes one thing perfectly clear: The Republican Party still pines for the very leadership that bankrupted this country financially, with their reckless economic policies, and ethically, with their allegiance to special interests over the American people. And that's what real failure looks like."

*** CPAC, Day 2: Today's speakers at CPAC include Tim Pawlenty (10:00 am ET), Mike Pence (11:00 am), Michele Bachmann (12:20 pm), John Ashcroft (1:15 pm), Tom Price (3:30 pm), and Ron Paul (4:30 pm). A source familiar with Pawlenty's speech tells First Read that the Minnesota governor "will discuss his common-sense agenda for America, specifically offering four principles. He will speak about conservatives' comeback in the past year, and give credit to the audience's shared principles, including limited government, rule of law, individual responsibility and free markets. Recognizing that he's still largely unknown, he'll share his personal story growing up in South St. Paul and record of balancing budgets as governor of Minnesota. He'll also offer his common-sense ideas for how to address our nation's current challenges both foreign and domestic."

*** CPAC as a GOP convention: By the way, CPAC's growth as an influential stop in Republican Party politics is truly striking when one looks back over the last 10 years. In the late '90s and even early '00s, it took a lot to get Republican Party leaders to show up. But over the last few years, CPAC has gotten more and more popular again. This year has the feel, as NBC's David Gregory pointed out this morning, of a nominating convention, which makes the Democrats' decision to completely ignore the attacks coming out of the "convention" even more surprising.

*** First Read's Top 10 Senate takeovers: If it's Friday, it means another First Read Top 10. Today, we look at the Top 10 Senate takeovers. Quite a bit has changed since our prior Senate list last month -- including the news that Evan Bayh won't seek re-election. The biggest takeaway: The first eight (!!!) on this list are GOP pick-up possibilities. The number in parentheses is our last ranking.

1. North Dakota (1) -- More likely than not, this state will be No. 1 on our list from now until November
2. Indiana (unranked) -- Once Democrats get their candidate (Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill?) this will move down the list
3. Delaware (2) -- Mike Castle (R) is the clear front-runner, but can Chris Coons (D) make this competitive?
4. Nevada (3) -- Harry Reid, whom Obama campaigns for today, remains the most vulnerable Dem incumbent. Can Harry pull a Houdini and survive?
5. Arkansas (5) -- We're all watching that March filing deadline. Does Blanche Lincoln run?
6. Colorado (4) -- Not only is this a challenging environment for Michael Bennet, he also has a primary on his hands.
7. Pennsylvania (8) -- Pat Toomey (R) continues to perform better than any of us thought was possible a year ago
8. Illinois (10) -- It's Alexi vs. Kirk. And despite that Dem poll, Kirk might have the very slight edge
9. Missouri (6) -- Finally, a Dem pick-up opportunity. A year ago, many considered this the No. 1 pick-up opportunity
10. (tie) New Hampshire (7) and Ohio (9) -- The other two Dem pick-up possibilities. In NH, Hodes has become a better candidate than a lot of pundits thought earlier.

*** NYT vs. Paterson: The New York Times continues to body-slam New York Gov. David Paterson (D) as he continues his quixotic bid to seek election, which he officially kicks off tomorrow. The paper's lead: "When a plane crashed outside Buffalo about 10:20 on a Thursday evening last year, killing 50 people, aides to Gov. David A. Paterson of New York could not find him for more than three hours, and it was nearly five hours before his office released any statement about what was the deadliest air disaster in the nation since 2001… Last summer, as some advisers warned him that he needed to travel around the state to shore up his poll numbers, Mr. Paterson spent long stretches in the Hamptons, relaxing with friends and mingling with wealthy donors and celebrities."

*** Today's filing deadline: Indiana.

Countdown to NC filing deadline: 7 days
Countdown to TX primary: 11 days
Countdown to AR filing deadline: 17 days
Countdown to OR, PA filing deadlines: 18 days
Countdown to CA, NV filing deadlines: 21 days
Countdown to IA, UT filing deadlines: 28 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 256 days

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Expect a chilly reception when Obama addresses House Republicans in Baltimore… Economy grew 5.7% in 4th quarter… It's looking like the White House will move the KSM trial from New York… Michael Steele continues to make news, even in Hawaii… First Read's Top 10 primaries of 2010… And Mark Sanford got more praise than Lindsey Graham did at last night's South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debate.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A chilly reception? Pick your adage -- "If at first your don't succeed, try, try again," or "Stupidity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result." Around noon ET today, President Obama addresses the House GOP retreat in Baltimore, where he's expected to again call for Republicans to work with the White House like he did in Wednesday's State of the Union and yesterday in Florida. But Republicans aren't having any of it. In an interview with Politico, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor accused Obama of "lecturing" Republicans. "I felt like he was admonishing Congress and certainly lecturing Republicans," he said, "accusing us of being an obstructionist party, when what it is we're about is trying to focus on the issue, which is control the spending and let's go about creating an environment for jobs. ... [The] president says he's going to be open to discussion. We're all about going and participating with him." And here's what Minority Leader John Boehner said yesterday: "[T]here was nothing last night, in the president's speech that there was any willingness to sit down and work together."

*** Dog-and-pony show: It's worth pointing out that, substantively, today's Obama-House GOP meeting is a bit meaningless. Why? Minority parties in the House don't govern; it's the minority party in the Senate that has real power. It would be more useful for Obama to address Senate Republicans, but not their colleagues in the House. Today's meeting helps both sides look bipartisan -- potentially, we might add -- but little will come of this. Before he speaks to House Republicans, President Obama tours a local small business in Baltimore, and then makes remarks on the economy and a jobs tax credit at 11:25 am ET. By the way, note that yesterday's trip to Florida, the event in Baltimore today, and the New Hampshire stop early next week are all examples of the type of schedule the White House hopes to keep for the near term as the goal is to get the president outside of Washington as much as possible.

*** Today's biggest news? The economy grew 5.7% in the 4th quarter of 2009. The AP says it's the second-straight quarter of growth and fastest since 2003… Cue all the GOP press releases about a jobless recovery. But the economy is clearly growing. Are jobs, always a lagging indicator, about to move, too?

*** Did Mike Bloomberg actually help the White House? Per NBC's Pete Williams, two Justice Department officials say a New York Daily News report -- that the White House has ordered the department to consider places other than New York to put Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and other 9/11 detainees on trial -- is wrong. "The White House hasn't ordered us to do anything," one official says. But it is increasingly clear, Williams adds, that the Justice Department is under intense pressure to consider conducting these trials elsewhere. A senior Justice official said last night that "everyone is aware of the changing realities, and it would be unwise not to look at contingency plans." The official says that department officials have told the White House that they would begin doing so. On Thursday, an official told WNBC's Jon Dienst that during the Mayor Michael Bloomberg's phone conversation today with Attorney General Eric Holder, Bloomberg asked him to consider other locations. Bottom line: The administration is paving the way for holding these trials somewhere other than New York City. And it is beginning to look like a change will almost certainly be made, though not within the next few days. The idea of holding these trials in Manhattan is all but dead. In our NBC/WSJ poll from earlier this month, an overwhelming majority said they DIDN'T support allowing terrorist suspects to have the same legal rights as U.S. citizens have. Bloomberg may very well have bailed out the White House (and Democrats running in 2010), because Republicans have made it clear they want to make the terror trial debate a big campaign issue this year.

*** Steele making news in Hawaii: Being thousands of miles away hasn't stopped RNC Chairman Michael Steele from making news. At the RNC's winter meeting in Hawaii yesterday, Politico reports, Steele got testy with reporters asking him questions about his performance as chair. "Asked about the party's fundraising … the chairman demanded of a reporter: 'Check your facts.' 'But get it right, because you've been getting it wrong,' he said." More: "Asked by the reporter if the members want to have him, the chairman shot back: 'Yeah, did you get intel otherwise? You know something I don't know?' When the reporter noted that Republicans had grumbled privately about Steele, the chairman replied with a dose of sarcasm, 'Oh, they've said critical things privately to you?' He continued: 'Well, I'm sure they have and I look forward to that conversation publicly.'"

*** First Read's Top 10 primaries: Last Friday, we took a look at the Top 10 Senate takeovers. Today, with the first 2010 primary just four days away, we take a look at the Top 10 primaries of 2010:

1. FL SEN (R): It epitomizes the current ideological divide within the GOP, and Rubio is now in driver's seat
2. TX GOV (R): The Perry-vs.-Hutchison Lone Star showdown takes place 32 days from today; everything is BIGGER in Texas, right?
3. PA SEN (D): This is Crist vs. Rubio, but on the Democratic side…
4. AZ SEN (R): Could the GOP's '08 standard-bearer lose his primary? Right now, McCain has a comfortable lead in the polls, but this contest remains one to watch; what's more, McCain has made some dramatic changes in the last six months in how he votes and what he says in preparation for a serious conservative challenge
5. IL SEN (D) and GOV (D): Not only are these the first primaries of the year, these contests are shaping up to be good races, too; a sitting governor just might lose his primary, which doesn't happen often
6. SC GOV (R): Is there another GOP gubernatorial primary with more rising stars in their respective state than this one? And as we all know, South Carolina politics can be absolutely nasty…
7. NY SEN (D): Harold Ford Jr. isn't officially in yet, but this could be the best primary by the summer…
8. NY GOV (D): Andrew Cuomo isn't in either, and David Paterson isn't out. But both these things could change in a couple of months
9. KY SEN (R): Can Ron Paul's son, Rand, ride the Tea Party wave to beat the establishment favorite, Trey Grayson?
10. UT SEN (R): The best GOP ideological fight that no one is paying attention to.

*** Last night's S.C. debate: In Thursday night's GOP gubernatorial debate in South Carolina moderated by MSNBC's Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, the four candidates were asked who better represents their values -- Jim DeMint or Lindsey Graham. Two ducked the question (Rep. Gresham Barrett and state AG Henry McMaster) and two answered DeMint (Andre Bauer and Nikki Haley). In fact, Haley was the only one who said she would have voted to censure Graham for his support for cap-and-trade and immigration reform. "If they are not conservative, we don't need to support them," she said. Also, a good portion of the debate was devoted to outgoing Gov. Mark Sanford, who was in attendance. Asked whether Sanford was an effective governor, all of them said yes. Bottom line: Sanford was praised more at the debate than Graham, which when you think about is absolutely stunning…

Countdown to IL primary: 4 days
Countdown to TX primary: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 277 days

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What a week it's been, and we have State of the Union Week coming up next… Are Geithner and Summers in the dog house?... Obama heads to Ohio… Yesterday's SCOTUS decision looks like it will change politics as we know it… McCain's relatively tepid response to the SCOTUS decision… John Roberts as Earl Warren?... First Read's new Top 10 Senate list… And George P. Bush backs Rubio.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** What a week: What a week it's been in politics. It began with Scott Brown's (R) stunning victory in Massachusetts. After that came the Democratic scramble to save health care, which continues to hang by a thread. There also was our NBC/WSJ poll, which showed that President Obama's political standing has declined substantially after his first full year in office. And then yesterday was the Supreme Court's campaign-finance decision, which will undoubtedly transform the political system as we know it. These developments certainly weren't good news for the White House or the Democratic Party, although we still have no idea how the SCOTUS decision will play out (remember all the statements that Democrats were in trouble after McCain-Feingold?). Next week comes the State of the Union, as well as the congressional work to try to save health care. One thing is for certain: Democrats are hoping next week will be kinder to them than the past one has been.

*** Rebuking Geithner and Summers? One other thing that emerged this week was a change in the White House's tone when it comes to Wall Street. In fact, yesterday's Obama proposal to prohibit banks to use their deposit customers' money to speculate on Wall Street was a repudiation of sorts of his two top economic advisers, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Larry Summers, both of whom argued against this proposal. Indeed, it appears that it was Vice President Biden and Paul Volcker teaming up against Geithner and Summers here. Both Geithner and Summers played an instrumental role in getting Wall Street back on its feet. But given that Main Street isn't back on its feet just yet, the White House probably realizes that it can't be seen protecting Wall Street anymore. As we hinted at yesterday, there's a growing frustration in the White House between the economic team and the political team, and we're seeing that play out with the president trying to side with the populists.

*** Speaking of Main Street…: In the second stop of what the White House is calling its White House to Main Street tour, President Obama today heads to the swing state of Ohio to talk about his jobs agenda. In Lorrain County, OH, he tours a wind turbine manufacturing lab (at 1:20 pm ET) and holds a town hall meeting at the community college (2:05 pm), tours a factory at 3:25 pm ET and then is back in DC by 6:00 pm. (His first stop on the tour was Allentown, PA, on Dec. 4, 2009.) Pre-butting Obama's trip to Ohio today is House Minority Leader John Boehner, who pens this Cleveland Plain-Dealer op-ed: "President Barack Obama is coming to Elyria today to discuss job creation in a state that is desperate for a plan to put Americans back to work, but he continues to push an agenda that actually destroys American jobs." 

*** A changed political world: Yesterday, GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg distributed a fascinating analysis of what the Supreme Court's big campaign-finance decision means. One, he said, it's going to place political candidates at a significant disadvantage to corporations and organized labor. "Controlling the issues they want to run on will become a real challenge, as will having sufficient funds to portray their positions and images." Two, it could lead to the extinction of America's political parties. "With the limits on the amounts and sources of funds they can accept, the parties will be bit players compared to outside groups that can now conduct those core functions with unlimited funds from any source." Three, it's going to benefit wealthy individuals, "leading to a number of new outlets who can carry the messages that these donors have wanted carried." Four, it will render 527s obsolete. And five, it's going to be good for the ad-makers and TV networks. By the way, Ginsberg (and also Rep. Barney Frank) will appear on MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" beginning at 9:00 am ET.   

*** McCain vs. Feingold? Not surprisingly, both John McCain and Russ Feingold -- the two authors of the famous campaign-finance law -- criticized yesterday's Supreme Court ruling. But the two men's tone couldn't have been more different. Here was Feingold's statement: "[T]his decision was a terrible mistake. Presented with a relatively narrow legal issue, the Supreme Court chose to roll back laws that have limited the role of corporate money in federal elections since Teddy Roosevelt was president. Ignoring important principles of judicial restraint and respect for precedent, the Court has given corporate money a breathtaking new role in federal campaigns." By comparison, McCain's response was pretty tepid: "I am disappointed by the decision of the Supreme Court and the lifting of the limits on corporate and union contributions." Of course, one reason why the John McCain of '10 doesn't sound like the McCain of '02 is because he probably faces a competitive GOP primary this year… 

*** John Roberts = Earl Warren? Here's a final point about yesterday's Supreme Court decision: Can Republican candidates complain about "judicial activism" with a straight face anymore? Yesterday's decision -- which overturned decades of precedent restricting corporate money in politics, and which the Roberts Court decided to re-hear to broadly challenge the precedent -- would have made Earl Warren blush. It's all ironic given John Roberts' testimony at his 2005 confirmation hearing. "Judges are like umpires," he said back then. "Umpires don't make the rules; they apply them. The role of an umpire and a judge is critical. They make sure everybody plays by the rules. But it is a limited role. Nobody ever went to a ball game to see the umpire... I will remember that it's my job to call balls and strikes and not to pitch or bat." But Roberts' decision to re-try the case broadly -- and not just over whether "Hillary: The Movie" could air before an election -- was certainly stepping into the batter's box.

*** A programming note: MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" today interviews GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch, who will talk about health care and the big banks. Also on the show: The New York Times' David Sanger, Time's Joe Klein, and MSNBC's Rachel Maddow.

*** First Read's Top 10 Senate Takeovers: The last time we unveiled our Top 10 Senate contests (ranked by their likelihood of flipping parties) was back in October, and a lot has changed since then. Today, after the Massachusetts special, we're releasing our new Senate list, which shows SEVEN GOP pick-up possibilities, and THREE Dem ones.

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1. North Dakota (It's looking like this is John Hoeven's seat)
2. Delaware (as long as Mike Castle doesn't have an opponent, this is going to be a cakewalk for the GOP. Paging Beau Biden...) 
3. Nevada (Harry Reid is still incredibly vulnerable)
4. Colorado (Michael Bennet faces a primary challenge and is unproven so far)
5. Arkansas (Lincoln's poll numbers are in free-fall, but a crowded GOP primary could save her)
6. Missouri (Finally, a potential Dem pick-up on this list; can Roy Blunt really tap into that Scott Brown/outsider magic?)
7. New Hampshire (Can Paul Hodes take advantage of a crowded GOP primary?)
8. Pennsylvania (If Scott Brown can win in Massachusetts, then, yes, Pat Toomey can win in PA)
9. Ohio (Has Ohio moved back to where it was in 2003-2004, when it was more favorable to GOPers?)
10. Illinois (No matter which Dem emerges from next month's primary, Mark Kirk definitely has a shot)
Others to watch: Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana 

*** More Midterm news: Stu Rothenberg has moved Blanche Lincoln's Senate seat from "Toss-up" to "Lean Takeover… In Florida, Jeb Bush's son, George P., has endorsed Marco Rubio… And in Michigan, Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder says he has raised $3.2 million.

Countdown to IL primary: 11 days
Countdown to TX primary: 39 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 284 days

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Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** When no one is happy: The hardest thing to do this morning is to find someone who is 100% pleased with both President Obama's speech last night and his new Afghanistan policy. Many Democrats seemed hesitant to endorse the president's plan in whole, but found ways to compliment him -- either on the speech, or with the process, or by blaming the previous administration. Many Republicans gave cautious support for the policy, but found ways to criticize the president over the lengthy review or for entertaining a start date for withdrawal. Obama had a number of goals for his speech, but the biggest one was with the American public: to buy, er, rent time from them on this war. Most Commanders-in-Chief get at least a temporary boost in the polls after delivering a major primetime address on matters of war and peace. But given the dire economic feelings in the country (something the president mentioned a few times in his speech, which in hindsight is quite striking given the topic), as well as the polarized nature of the electorate right now, will he even get a bump? At best, the president has to hope he simply convinced the public that he had nothing but bad options in front of him, and picked the one that gives the military a final shot at trying to bring the war to some sort of successful or respectable conclusion.

*** What was left unsaid: A couple of things were still unclear after the speech. One, how will the government pay for this war? Sources in the administration say they are still trying to work with Congress on a plan, but the last thing anyone wants on 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is the war surtax idea to get taken too seriously by lawmakers. Two, what exactly is the "stick" (to use the carrot/stick metaphor) when it comes to Afghanistan and Pakistan? Is it the July 2011 transfer date? Speaking of, with Republicans criticizing this as setting a "date certain," does anyone else have flashbacks to 2007-2008? And where is the GOP criticism to the current withdrawal/transfer date in Iraq?

*** How quickly folks forget: Also, for those on the left who are pounding Obama for his troop increase, they apparently didn't hear the many times he pledged to either ramp up or focus on Afghanistan. In short, he's practicing what he preached on the campaign trail. Here's what he said in his speech back on Aug. 1, 2007: "The first step must be getting off the wrong battlefield in Iraq, and taking the fight to the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan… Our troops have fought valiantly there, but Iraq has deprived them of the support they need—and deserve. As a result, parts of Afghanistan are falling into the hands of the Taliban, and a mix of terrorism, drugs, and corruption threatens to overwhelm the country. As President, I would deploy at least two additional brigades to Afghanistan to re-enforce our counter-terrorism operations and support NATO's efforts against the Taliban." Another part of the president's speech getting too little attention is how the July 2011 pledge is a signal to the American people that this is when they should judge him on this policy and whether it's working. And it means he's allowing his first term to be (partially) judged on this issue. It's certainly not a politically timid decision; it's quite gutsy considering how pessimistic so many are when it comes to Afghanistan.

*** The action moves to Capitol Hill: Today, the Afghanistan story moves from West Point to Capitol Hill, where Secretary of State Clinton, Defense Secretary Gates, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee beginning at 9:00 am ET. The trio then testifies before the House Foreign Affairs Committee at 1:30 pm. For more congressional reaction to Obama's speech last night, MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" will interview Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D), Joe Lieberman (I-D), and Orrin Hatch (R) beginning at 1:00 pm ET. Meanwhile, NBC's David Gregory will be anchoring the 3:00 pm hour on MSNBC, and he'll interview Afghanistan's ambassador to the U.S.

*** 2010 reaction: As it turns out, the most critical responses to Obama's speech -- from the right and left -- came from 2010 candidates in competitive primaries. Here was Marco Rubio (R) in Florida: "While I support the President's call for additional troops, I am concerned it falls short of General McChrystal's specific request. I am especially alarmed by the President's insistence on announcing a withdrawal start date." And here was Cheryle Jackson (D) in Illinois: "I respect and support President Obama but I disagree with the decision to commit more troops and resources to Afghanistan.  It is time to take care of America again and time to bring our troops home. Until we stop spending hundreds of billions on wars, we will not have the focus or money to solve the challenges we face at home." Clearly, both candidates are playing to the base. We've seen similar examples in other races.

*** The GM firing: Under the radar yesterday was a HUGE development, a decision by the government-supported GM board of directors to fire one of the last remnants of the OLD GM leadership team, CEO Fritz Henderson. Remember, GM is a symbol for the American public to track just how government intervention in the economy and the private sector works. The administration, on one hand, should be happy that their handpicked board is willing to move quickly if results are missing but it's a headline that will frustrate some who questioned the idea of rescuing GM in the first place, giving them an 'I told ya so' opportunity.

*** The CBO giveth … and taketh away: Several months ago, the Obama White House was seething at the health-care numbers coming from the Congressional Budget Office. Now it's celebrating the nonpartisan organization's figures. First came the CBO report concluding that most -- but not all Americans -- would see their health-care premiums slightly decrease or remain the same under the Senate health-care bill. Next was the CBO study stating the economic stimulus saved or created between 600,000 to 1.6 million jobs during the 3rd quarter, finally giving the White House some good news in a P.R. battle over the stimulus that it has been losing.

*** Tanner's out: Yesterday, Tennessee's John Tanner became the second House Democrat in the last two weeks to announce that he won't be running for re-election (Dennis Moore of Kansas was the other). Will others follow? As we've pointed out before, the current lack of Democratic retirements is what makes the prospects of Republicans winning back the House next year very unlikely. But does that start to change?

*** Establishment pushes back against purity test: We missed this yesterday, but Politico's Martin reports that establishment Republicans are pushing back against the proposal that GOP candidates must adhere to at least eight of 10 issue tests in order to receive support from the Republican National Committee. Said former Virginia Rep. Tom Davis: "We're becoming a church that would rather chase away heretics than welcome converts and that's no way to become a majority party." Added former New York Rep. Tom Reynolds: "I don't think national committeemen putting purity tests on the party is wise." And here's current New York Rep. Peter King: "I think it's dangerous to judge a candidacy just based on a questionnaire. You have to look at the person."

*** Reed appears to have won in Atlanta: In the run-off for Atlanta mayor, Kasim Reed (who is black) appears to have narrowly defeated Mary Norwood (who is white), 51%-49%. with 100% of precincts reporting. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "Reed led Norwood by 758 votes out of a total of more than 83,000 cast – a margin of 0.92 percent. It is a sign of how hotly contested this race was that nearly 11,000 more voters turned out for the runoff than for the general election in November."

*** Cantor's economic speech: Serving to pre-but President Obama's job summit tomorrow, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor gives a speech on the economy at 2:00 pm ET. The title of the speech: "Does Creating Jobs Have To Cost Money?" The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is criticizing Cantor for earlier trying to take credit for stimulus spending. "Cantor needs to let his constituents know the truth -- does he favor canceling funding from the Recovery package in his congressional district that created jobs or does he plan to continue taking credit for the funding he fought against?" asked DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson.

*** DGA meets in DC: Finally today, Democratic governors and gubernatorial candidates are gathering in DC, and will attend a "Candidate and Strategist Luncheon" beginning at noon ET. Then, at 1:15 pm ET, leaders at the Democratic Governors Association will hold a press conference, where it will announce its new leadership for 2010 and also talk about next year's gubernatorial races.

Countdown to MA Special Primary: 6 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 48 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 335 days

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