Roll Call: The Senate on Tuesday voted to open debate on a comprehensive immigration overhaul bill on overwhelmingly bipartisan lines, staving off a filibuster 82 to 15. … The Senate later voted 84-15 on the motion to proceed to the bill itself. … It was the first test of what is sure to be many for the “gang of eight” framework that passed out of committee last month. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has said he expects several weeks of deliberation before final votes and the July Fourth recess. But the road to final passage is not clear, even if the bill’s backers are confident about their chances.”

Advocates of immigration reform want a final vote to be as high as possible, 70 or more, in the hopes that an overwhelming vote will pressure House Speaker John Boehner into bringing up the bill in the House even if it doesn’t have majority support of his conference – something called the Hastert Rule. But conservatives are pressuring Boehner to stick with the Hastert Rule, Roll Call reports.

National Journal: “For the Senate to pass a comprehensive immigration-reform billl, Republicans are going to have to start trusting Democrats or Democrats are going to have to start trusting Republicans. Good luck with that. Senate Republicans don't believe President Obama will enforce the bill's border-security provisions--and they don't want to let millions of illegal immigrants begin working their way toward citizenship until they see the president is serious about locking down the borders. That's why they want those immigrants' eligibility for citizenship to be contingent, or ‘triggered,’ on the U.S. Border Patrol meeting benchmarks.” 

Chris Frates: “Chuck Schumer’s predicting the Senate will overwhelmingly pass comprehensive immigration reform before July 4th. Marco Rubio says the bill doesn’t even have the 60 votes it needs to pass. And as of today, Rubio’s right.”

Politico: “Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy is trying again on immigration and gay rights. The Vermont Democrat filed an amendment to the Gang of Eight immigration bill on Tuesday that would allow gay U.S. citizens to petition their foreign spouses to become permanent residents. He had withdrawn the measure after an emotional debate during the committee markup, after several Democrats said they would vote against his amendment in order to preserve the overall bill.” 

Ted Cruz (R) says he is, in fact, “Obamaphobic.”

Nathan Gonzales previews Thursday’s congressional baseball game and notes that Democrats add another arm in addition to Cedric Richmond, the star of the team who has dominated Republicans of late: “As a high-school pitcher, Florida Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy was throwing as hard as 90 miles per hour (along with a slider) and on his way to pitch at the University of Miami on a scholarship, until he broke his shoulder playing football in the final game of the season. Murphy, now 30, tried to come back from injury but was never the same, according to the congressman. But facing top-tier talent is very different than a lineup of aging politicians. If Murphy, wearing an Indian River State College uniform, is able to throw in the 70s and have a breaking ball, he could pose a ridiculous one-two punch with Richmond. When he’s not on the mound, Murphy will likely play center field and hit in the middle of the lineup.”

MICHIGAN: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) will announce his Senate plans Friday, National Journal’s Tim Alberta reports. Rogers is thought to be unlikely to run.

MASSACHUSETTS: A WBUR/MassInc poll has Ed Markey (D) up over Gabriel Gomez (R) 46%-39%.  

Joe Biden praised Markey at a fundraiser Tuesday, but delivered this warning: “There’s a big difference in this race. Barack Obama’s not at the head of the ticket. And that means those legions of African Americans and Latinos are not automatically going to come out. No one has energized them like Barack Obama. But he’s not on the ticket. So don’t take this one for granted.”

Obama heads to Boston today for Markey. And who’ll be joining Obama? Party-switcher Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee, who recently became a Democrat. Previously, he had been an independent and before that, a Republican.

The Boston Globe’s lead takeaway from the Markey-Gomez debate Tuesday night was that Markey would oppose elimination of the home-mortgage interest deduction in deficit talks, and Gomez was non-committal.

Gomez released an ad Wednesday morning. Script: “Gabriel Gomez is a VERY BAD man. He kills old people. He hates women. He even leaves the toilet seat UP. This is ridiculous. Congressman Markey must think we’re stupid. Markey is everything that's wrong with Congress, 37 years of pay raises, bounced checks, taking millions from people he regulates. It’s about trust. If you like Congress, Ed Markey is your guy. But if you want an independent thinker try Navy Seal Gabriel Gomez.” 

The Boston Globe: Gomez’s ad “attempts to respond to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s ad, which accuses him of supporting tax breaks for the rich and the elimination of insurance coverage of mammograms and cancer screenings.

Those charges are based on Gomez’s opposition to broad-based tax increases and his opposition to President Obama’s health care law, which guarantees insurance coverage for mammograms and other preventive services. Gomez says he believes health care laws should be left to the states.” 

PENNSYLVANIA: MSNBC’s Michael LaRosa reports: “Pennsylvania State Treasurer Rob McCord took his first public step in signaling that he intends to run for governor. According to a state authorization form obtained by Hardball, McCord on Tuesday filed paperwork to create the ‘McCord for Governor’ political action committee, one of the clearest signs yet that the state treasurer has his eyes on challenging incumbent Republican Gov. Tom Corbett. Establishing the committee allows him to accept campaign contributions for next year’s race.” More: “McCord would face a crowded Democratic primary, which includes prolific fundraiser Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, who’s vying to be the state’s first female Governor. “

SOUTH DAKOTA: The Hill: “Rep. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) will not run for Senate in South Dakota, a decision that will begin to assuage Republican fears that a nasty primary could hurt their chances at a likely pickup.” 

VIRGINIA: Virginia Democrats held their primary elections Tuesday (Republicans nominated their candidates via state party convention). State Sens. Ralph Northam and Mark Herring won their respective races for lieutenant governor and attorney general. Northam defeated Aneesh Chopra, the former White House chief technology officer, 54%-46%. Herring won in a closer race over Justin Fairfax, a former U.S. attorney b y a closer 52%-48% margin.

Meet the nominees… Northam has been a state senator for the past five years and ran on trying to return Virginia to the vision and governance styles of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. He’s a doctor, retired major in the Army, and Virginia Military Institute graduate.

Attorney General nominee Mark Herring, another state senator, ran as something of the opposite of Ken Cuccinelli on a left-leaning platform. He touts health care. He specifically made an issue of women’s health care, including birth control. The Loudon County Democrat has a degree in economics (he also served on the Loudon County chamber of commerce), a master’s in foreign affairs, and a law degree. 

The Cuccinelli (R) campaign took aim at the nominees, looping them in with gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe and saying they put “anti-job, pro-tax policies first. It also hits McAuliffe by asking the candidates a list of questions, including, “What does it say about Terry McAuliffe’s campaign slogan of ‘putting jobs first’ that he has nothing to back up his claim of creating 100,000 jobs?” 

But Cuccinelli is dealing with another controversy, including this from the Virginian-Pilot editorial page: “Cuccinelli wants the public to believe his office intervened in a lawsuit on behalf of powerful interests solely to uphold a state law pertaining to oil and gas drilling. And, he said, he rejects ‘in the strongest possible terms’ suggestions that his office's involvement resulted in any way from Big Energy's big donations to his gubernatorial campaign. But email exchanges involving a senior assistant attorney general, included in the public case file and posted online attricities.com, indicate Cuccinelli's office played a role far greater than the attorney general is willing admit.”

The Cuccinelli campaign went off the air Sunday, a media tracking source confirms. Cuccinelli’s team notes that it’s the last week of school and summer vacations are beginning. The McAuliffe camp notes it is still on the air and had a cash-on-hand advantage of $5.4 million to $2.3 million, as of May 29. Both campaigns had been spending upwards of $400,000 a week on statewide advertising. 

E.W. Jackson’s book cover misspells Ten Commandments. (It only has one “m.”)

The most recent NBC News/Wall Street contained plenty of revealing numbers -- on President Obama, the health-care law, immigration, even affirmative action.

But lost in those numbers and headlines is a noteworthy finding: The American public is extremely hesitant to intervene directly in Syria's civil war.

Asked to pick a response to stop the killing of civilians in Syria, just 15 percent in the poll say they favor U.S. military action, and only 11 percent want to provide arms to the opposition.

By comparison, a plurality of respondents -- 42 percent -- prefer to provide only humanitarian assistance, and 24 percent believe the U.S. shouldn't take any action.

Perhaps more significantly, those attitudes cut across party lines and almost all demographic groups.

"Whether you voted for Romney or Obama, they have the same opinion on Syria," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with the Democratic firm Hart Research.

"It explains the great reticence of the American public," McInturff added.

These numbers come as calls for U.S. intervention in Syria -- after the Syrian opposition's recent losses on the battlefield -- have once again increased.

The New York Times:

So far President Obama has steadfastly resisted even a modest involvement in the conflict, and there was no sign on Monday that a decision to use American force was imminent.

But Hezbollah’s large-scale entry into the fight in recent weeks and the Assad government’s firepower has tilted the battlefield in favor of the Syrian government.

“I think the rebels are in trouble,” said Jeffrey White, a former Middle East analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Speed is of the essence. The regime’s momentum needs to be brought to a halt.”

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted May 30 to June 2 of 1,000 adults (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

The filing deadline has now officially passed for the October special election to fill the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s (D) seat. Four Democrats and two Republicans will run.

Much attention at this point rests on the Democratic primary set for August, but Newark Mayor Cory Booker is the overwhelming favorite. Two polls released Monday – from Rutgers-Eagleton and Quinnipiac -- both showed Booker with more than 50 percent of the vote and with big leads over his Democratic primary opponents and leading Republican Steve Lonegan, the former mayor of Bogota.

Democratic Reps. Rush Holt and Frank Pallone garner just 10 percent or less. State Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver was not included in the surveys, because she filed later than the other Democrats. Quinnipiac was the only poll to test general-election match-ups, and Booker was handily ahead of Lonegan, 54 to 27 percent. (The margins between Lonegan and each of the other Democrats are narrower. Dr. Alieta Eck, a late Republican entry, isn’t included in the figures.)

Booker is far and away the best known candidate in the polls. So who are the other candidates?

Rush Holt (D)

First elected to his House seat in 1999, Holt has one of the more unique resumes in Congress. His past campaign bumper stickers read, “My Congressman is a Rocket Scientist” because he is, in fact, a physicist with multiple Jeopardy wins under his belt. Pre-politics, Holt served as the assistant director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, New Jersey’s largest center for alternative energy research. The lawmaker stresses environmental and infrastructure accomplishments, on his website, including his role in securing $150 million for the Land Water Conservation Fund and $800 million over two years for transit security improvements. He also serves on the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Natural Resources, where he is the ranking member of the energy and mineral resources subcommittee, which deals in part with the nation’s long-term energy strategy. Overall, Holt brands himself as a results guy, claiming that he “studies the issues based on merit, not partisanship.” Another interesting fact: Holt’s father, also Rush Holt of West Virginia, was the youngest person elected to the U.S. Senate, securing his seat at age 29. In fact, he had to delay taking his seat in the Senate by a few months because he did not meet the age requirement. He served just one term, and was subsequently a failed congressional candidate and gubernatorial candidate five times, including twice as a Republican after switching parties.

Frank Pallone (D)

Currently serving his 13^th term in the U.S. House, Congressman Pallone brands himself as a champion in two main areas: health care and the environment. He emphasizes his progressive record a la the late Lautenberg. The underlying message of his campaign website and Senate announcement: Pallone is a known entity. Launching his bid, he said, “I believe my record of 25 years in Congress…shows I’m the best person to get the job done.” Pallone has been called a “chief architect” of the House version of the Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare.” This May, he re-introduced a bill he authored that died in the last Congress – the Superfund Polluter Pays Act – that his website says would make “polluters, not taxpayers foot the bill for toxic clean-ups.” The Democrat is also known for an early career stance against President Bill Clinton on the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Pallone emphasizes that vote on his new campaign site as evidence that he protects American workers. National news articles at the time included the job concerns, but added that most of the “No’s” received a lot of contributions from labor groups opposed to the agreement. Per the Washington Post, Labor PACs gave Pallone $707,005 between his initial election in 1988 and 1993. Prior to Congress, Pallone served on the city council in Long Branch, N.J., and in the New Jersey state Senate.

Sheila Oliver (D)

Currently in her second term as assembly speaker in the New Jersey state legislature, Oliver has a liberal record similar to some of her opponents. She sponsored bills to raise the state’s minimum wage and tie it to the cost of living and to legalize gay marriage, according to her bio on the New Jersey Assembly site. Oliver is emphasizing the need for a woman to win the seat, which would be a first for New Jersey. Filing her petition, she said, “You know for a long time I’ve had a lot of consternation that for centuries we have had no women representing the state of New Jersey. So I am very concerned about beginning to move the process forward for women’s representation.” Prior to the state legislature, Oliver was a non-profit administrator and served on the board of education for her hometown, East Orange, N.J.

Steve Lonegan (R)

One of just two Republicans vying for Lautenberg’s seat, Lonegan is a former small-town (Bogota, N.J.) mayor, who has also made several unsuccessful congressional and gubernatorial bids. The conservative is probably best known for controversies around immigration. As Bogota’s mayor, for example, he pushed to make English the town’s official language after a McDonald’s franchise put up a billboard in Spanish there. He called the sign “divisive” and “offensive.” He later landed in legal trouble for hiring illegal immigrants to work at his home, according to the New York Times. On Tuesday, he released a statement with excerpts from a voicemail left for Sen. Jeffrey Chiesa, Gov. Chris Christie’s appointee. Lonegan urged him to oppose immigration-reform legislation because it is, he said, tantamount to amnesty. Chiesa was one of 82 senators to vote in favor of a motion to proceed to debate on immigration Tuesday, the first vote on this round of comprehensive-immigration reform. Lonegan called Booker, Pallone, Holt, and Oliver “Obama rubber stamps,” who are “all the same.” Fun fact about Lonegan: Samuel Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. “Joe the Plumber” from the 2008 presidential election, endorsed him in his last race for governor.

Alieta Eck (R)

Eck is a physician and former president of the conservative Association of American Physicians and Surgeons and is framing her bid for the Senate around her medical experience and, in particular, her opposition to “Obamacare.” In 2011, She voiced that opposition her testimony before a U.S. Senate committee. In a statement on her new campaign website, she says, “Having more physicians in the Senate who understand the health care system would make real health care reform possible.” In 2003, along with her husband, Eck founded a free clinic for the poor and uninsured in New Jersey. The political newcomer is popular with Tea Party groups.

CHICAGO -- Another Daley is a step closer to a high-profile political race.

William Daley, the son of one long-time Chicago mayor and the younger brother of another, is forming an exploratory committee as he lays the groundwork for a 2014 challenge to Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.

"We need leadership that gets things done," he said in an online video released today. "The people of Illinois can't wait."

Quinn, who succeeded Rod Blagojevich in January 2009 after the scandal-tarred governor was impeached, presides over a state that has the lowest credit rating in the nation, one of the biggest unfunded public pension funds in America and owes about $7 billion in unpaid bills.

He is one of the most unpopular governors, with a disapproval rating as high as 55 percent in some polls.

In a statement, the Quinn campaign touted what it views as his accomplishments, including a statewide construction program and implementing President Obama's health-care reform in Illinois.

"The governor is focused on working hard for the people of Illinois," the said read. "There will be plenty of time for politics in the future."

Daley, who was Obama's White House chief of staff and President Bill Clinton's Commerce Secretary, may not be Quinn's only challenger. Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan is also mulling a race. She's a member of another prominent Illinois political family, the daughter of House Speaker Michael Madigan.

On the Republican side, State Treasurer Dan Rutherford and businessman Bruce Rauner have already announced candidacies. U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock has said he would not run.

The primary election is in March.

Full Senate holds its first immigration vote at 2:15 pm ET… Obama makes immigration remarks four hours earlier (just his second official event on the issue, compared with as many as eight on guns)… Looking ahead to the amendment process… Not surprising a majority backs tracking phone records… Another dent in Hillary’s State Department armor?... Cook: GOP chances of an upset in MA SEN look unlikely… Primary Day in Virginia… And remembering Doug Bailey.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., flanked by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., left, and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., right, speaks about immigration reform legislation as outlined by the Senate's bipartisan "Gang of Eight" that would create a path for the nation's 11 million unauthorized immigrants to apply for U.S. citizenship, in this file photo.

*** Full Senate holds its first immigration vote: This afternoon, the full U.S. Senate holds its first vote on the bipartisan immigration legislation, which seeks to bolster border security and establish a pathway to citizenship for the nation’s millions of undocumented immigrants. This vote on the motion to proceed requires 60 votes, and it’s expected to cross that threshold. But the question is whether there are potentially as many as 70 senators who support the final legislation, which would give the legislation lots of momentum, putting pressure on the GOP-controlled House of Representatives to take up the Senate version. Today’s vote COULD give us a hint. A reminder: This is just the first full Senate vote; the vote for final passage won’t take place until before the July 4 holiday. There are several moving parts associated with today’s immigration vote. Tuesday morning, President Obama -- who sees this legislation as his top second-term priority -- delivers remarks from the White House in support of immigration reform, and he’ll be joined by business, labor, and law enforcement officials who back the bill. Also today, the labor group SEIU says it’s launching a seven-figure TV ad campaign (running throughout the rest of this month) in support of the legislation. Meanwhile, per NBC’s Carrie Dann, immigration-reform opponent NumbersUSA says it will be scoring today’s procedural vote.

*** The White House’s relative reticence: According to NBC’s White House producers, Obama’s immigration speech today will be just his second official event on the issue (compared with as many as eight he’s held on gun control). But this count doesn’t include the numerous White House meetings he’s held on immigration, as well as his speech at the George W. Bush Presidential Library, where he made a big pitch for passing reform. Still, this relative reticence is by design: Obama doesn’t want to become a lightning rod in this debate, especially since the goal is now getting GOP support for the legislation. Expect his comments today to essentially be full of encouragement and praise for the bipartisan work.

*** Looking ahead to the amendment process: After today’s Senate vote, the immigration debate will turn to the amendment process, and NBC’s Kasie Hunt says there are four key areas where Republicans are trying to change the bill. The first (and most important) is border security. Sen. John Cornyn's (R-TX) amendment is the one to watch; there could be others coming from conservatives, including potentially from “Gang of Eight” member Marco Rubio (R-FL). Then there's benefits and taxes -- how and when do those in the green-card process have access to federal money for health care, even emergency care. Then, Hunt adds, there are questions of who can apply for status -- specifically, there's likely to be tussles over the types of crimes that would disqualify a person from applying for legalized status. And finally, there will be questions about refugee status and asylum -- prompted largely by the Boston bombing. On the Democratic side, the most closely watched amendment will be Pat Leahy’s (D-VT) that would allow immigrants to get legal status for their same-sex partners. Another issue is guns -- Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) is considering offering amendments to restrict immigrants' ability to obtain firearms. Republicans want to steer clear of that issue entirely.

*** Not surprising a majority backs tracking telephone records: If you have been following American politics over the last 10-12 years, these new Pew/Washington Post poll numbers shouldn’t be that surprising. But they’re still instructive in this NSA surveillance story. A strong majority of Americans -- 56% -- believe tracking telephone records of millions of Americans is an acceptable way for the federal government to investigate terrorism; 41% say it’s unacceptable. Back in 2006, after reports of warrantless wiretapping during the Bush administration, 51% said it was acceptable for the NSA to investigate people suspected of involvement with terrorism by secretly listening in on telephone calls and reading e-mails. What’s fascinating (and also predictable at the same time) is how partisan reactions have changed. In that 2006, 75% of Republicans and just 37% of Democrats said that activity was acceptable. But in this newest poll, it’s 64% of Democrats and only 52% of Republicans who think it’s acceptable to track telephone records. This number also stood out to us: 45% believe the government SHOULD be able to monitor everyone’s email to prevent terrorism. When you think about it, that’s a pretty high figure.

*** Another dent in Hillary’s State Department armor? Just as Hillary Clinton made her Twitter debut -- stoking more speculation about her 2016 plans -- comes this story that could become an issue for her if she runs for president. NBC News has obtained documents related to ongoing investigations into allegations involving State Department personnel and at least one ambassador. A State Department memo says the ambassador "routinely ditched his protective security detail in order to solicit sexual favors from both prostitutes and minor children." The memo also says a high-level State Department official specifically directed department investigators to "cease the investigation" into the ambassador's conduct -- just one of what another document describes as "several examples of undue influence" from top State officials. Yesterday, a State Department spokesperson would not confirm specific investigations, but said "the notion that we would not vigorously pursue criminal misconduct … is preposterous." Just like the Benghazi attack, this is potentially another story opponents could use to question her management of the State Department. By no means are they debilitating, but they’re dents in her armor.

*** Cook: GOP chances of an upset in MA SEN look unlikely: Tonight, Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez square off in their second debate in the special Massachusetts Senate race. Political analyst Charlie Cook takes a look at the contest. “[T]he pressure is on Gomez to register a clear win; otherwise this race may produce an outcome for the GOP as disappointing as last year’s 5-point defeat of Brown by Elizabeth Warren. With another two weeks to go, the race certainly isn’t over, but the chance of an upset looks decidedly less likely today than three or four weeks ago.”

*** Primary day in Virginia: Today’s Democratic primary day in Virginia. And while Terry McAuliffe is already the nominee in this year’s closely watched gubernatorial contest, Democrats today vote for their nominee for lieutenant governor (between Aneesh Chopra and Ralph Northam) and attorney general (Justin Fairfax vs. Mark Herring). Given that GOP Lt. Gov. nominee EW Jackson is a VERY flawed candidate, perhaps the best way to view the Chopra-Northam contest is as the Democratic gubernatorial primary for 2017. Even if Democrats lose the gubernatorial contest, it’s very likely that Democrats will win the race for lieutenant governor and the sitting LG will be the de factor frontrunner for the GOV nomination in 2017.  

*** Remembering Doug Bailey: Last but certainly not least, one of the great visionaries of the political world -- Doug Bailey -- died in his sleep early Monday morning. Doug leaves a legacy that spans decades and, well, centuries and was a mentor to many, including one of your authors. He had three distinct and separate successful careers that all had one goal: to make the American political system a little better and a little nobler. In the 60s, 70s and 80s, he was considered the leading Republican media consultant of his time and in many ways, pioneered methods on political campaigns that are now the norm today. (Perhaps his greatest accomplishment in that field was a loss in the 1976 presidential contest.) Then, in 1987, Bailey set out on a second career, one that would make him a pioneer in the world of political journalism. He, along with a Democratic counterpart, Roger Craver, founded The Presidential Campaign Hotline, which later would simply become “The Hotline.” Put it this way: If you are reading this morning email from us laying out the day in politics, you have Doug Bailey to thank for it. Many of the leading political briefings and publications today are derivatives of The Hotline. Finally, over the last 15 years, Doug set out trying to engage the public in whatever way he could think of to fix what he believed was a broken political system. Whether it was his hope to see a third political party rise up from the grass roots or his attempt to see the two political parties work as one, he simply wanted the political system to be fixed. Doug Bailey was 79, he’s survived by his wife Pat, two devoted children, Ed and Kate, and one grandchild.

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The AP: “President Barack Obama is inviting law enforcement, labor and business leaders to the White House to show they support an immigration overhaul. The White House says Obama will speak Tuesday about the economic and national security benefits of a bipartisan bill. The first votes in the full Senate are scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.”

“The Obama administration has decided to stop trying to block over-the-counter availability of the best-known morning-after contraceptive pill for all women and girls, a move fraught with political repercussions for President Obama,” the New York Times says.

More: “The Justice Department had been fighting to prevent that outcome, but said late Monday afternoon that it would accept its losses in recent court rulings and begin putting into effect a judge’s order to have the Food and Drug Administration certify the drug for nonprescription use. In a letter to Judge Edward R. Korman of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York, the administration said it would comply with his demands. The Justice Department appears to have concluded that it might lose its case with the appeals court and would have to decide whether to appeal to the Supreme Court. That would drastically elevate the debate over the politically delicate issue for Mr. Obama.”

National Journal: The NSA leak “raises new questions about the risk that insiders pose to government and corporate cybersecurity, in spite of the attention lavished on foreign hackers.”

There are reports that charges could be coming soon for Snowden.

First Read: Support for affirmative action programs is at an all-time low, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Reasons for the trend range from the idea of “diversity fatigue” to what others believe is the effect of an African-American being elected president, as well as 20 years of anti-affirmative-action campaigns. there is a wide divide on the issue along racial lines. Among whites polled, almost six in 10 (56 percent) oppose affirmative action. But among minorities asked, eight in 10 blacks and six in 10 Hispanics favor it.

There is also an ideological split, with 67 percent of Democrats saying the programs are still needed, compared to 22 percent of Republicans and 17 percent of Tea Party supporters. And just 39 percent of independents agree that affirmative action should be continued.

AP: “Government crackdowns against protesters in Turkey could test the close ties between President Barack Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a strategically important U.S. ally in a tumultuous region.”

The New York Daily News: “The Senate on Tuesday starts a three-week floor fight on a sweeping immigration bill that is President Obama's top legislative priority.”

Roll Call has a list of senators to watch on immigration.

New York Archbishop Timothy Dolan pens an op-ed in USA Today in support of immigration reform: “Catholic bishops: Fix unjust immigration system.”

The farm bill passed the Senate 66-27. Now, it’s on to the House. The New York Times: “The Senate approved a sweeping new farm bill on Monday that will cost nearly $955 billion over the next 10 years, the first step in a renewed attempt at passing legislation that will set the country’s food and agriculture programs and policy. The bill, which finances programs as diverse as crop insurance for farmers, food assistance for low-income families and foreign food aid, passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, 66 to 27. The Senate passed a similar bill last year, but the House failed to bring its bill to a vote. The last farm bill that was passed by both chambers, in 2008, was extended until Sept. 30.”

NPR: “The centerpiece of that policy is an expanded crop insurance program, designed to protect farmers from losses, that some say amounts to a highly subsidized gift to agribusiness. That debate is set to continue as the House plans to take up its version of the bill this month.”

David Rogers: “A landmark five-year Farm Bill cleared the Senate on Monday evening, setting the stage for a long-delayed fight on the House floor next week over major revisions in agriculture policy and the future of food stamps. … Republicans are genuinely divided over the role of government in farm policy, with the speaker — a veteran of the House Agriculture Committee — engaged in his own personal war against a new milk- supply management proposal in both the House and Senate bills.”

Roll Call: “The House will vote next week on a bill banning abortions across the country after 20 weeks of pregnancy.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is airing new Spanish-language radio ads criticizing House Republicans for voting to deport qualified children of undocumented immigrants.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is hitting GOP candidates on paycheck fairness in releases set to go out today in conjunction with the 50th anniversary of the Equal Pay Act. In one release targeting Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), DSCC spokeswoman Regan Page says:  "You would think equal pay for equal work would be a no brainer but that’s clearly not the case for Republicans like Mitch McConnell...Equal pay is not just about fairness and equality for women, it also has a serious consequences for the Kentucky economy." Similar releases will also hit candidates and potential candidates in other top Senate races, including Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR), Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), North Carolina state House Speaker Thom Tillis, Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC), and Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV). 

ILLINOIS: Former Obama Chief of Staff Bill Daley has launched an exploratory committee to run for governor. Another Obama ex-chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, is mayor of Chicago. Daley comes from a famous Illinois political family.

MASSACHUSETTS: “Republican Gabriel Gomez and Democrat Edward Markey are gearing up for their second debate as President Barack Obama prepares to visit Massachusetts to whip up support for Markey in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election,” the AP writes. “The one-hour Springfield debate is scheduled for 7 p.m. Tuesday at the studios of WGBY-TV and will be broadcast live. It’s expected to include questions important to the western part of the state.”

NEW JERSEY: “Now the speculation ends and the race begins,” the Star-Ledger reports. “Six candidates — four Democrats and two Republicans — Monday officially filed paperwork to run for the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the death of Frank Lautenberg.”

The two Republicans running: Dr. Alieta Eck and former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, who is seen as “the lone major Republican candidate.”

There’s “a growing list of Democrats who have endorsed Christie instead of state Sen. Barbara Buono,” the Star-Ledger writes.

VIRGINIA: Beth Reinhard: “Business leaders in Virginia aren't thrilled with their choices for governor, but Democrat Terry McAuliffe is beginning to capitalize on their dissatisfaction with the deeply conservative tenor of the Republican ticket. McAuliffe has raised substantially more money than Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli from nearly every business sector except for the energy industry, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Virginia Public Access Project. A handful of McDonnell's top donors in the business world are still on the sidelines or have donated to McAuliffe.”

Three debates worth having regarding the leaked NSA story -- and the leaker… Obama on the programs on Friday: “They help us prevent terrorist attacks”… Clapper: “Transparency has a doubled-edged sword”… Rand Paul’s libertarianism becomes mainstream?... Getting 60 Senate votes for the immigration bill is relatively easy… But getting 70 is more difficult… The current conflict: More border security vs. not undermining the path to citizenship… McCain on closing Gitmo… And Democratic field for NJ SEN is getting crowded.

Handout / Reuters

National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden, an analyst with a U.S. defence contractor, is seen in this still image taken from a video during an interview with the Guardian in his hotel room in Hong Kong June 6, 2013.

*** Three debates worth having: The story that’s once again dominating Washington and the political conversation is the leak of the secret National Security Agency programs, especially now that the leaker -- Edward Snowden, 29 -- has come forward and revealed himself. But the odds are that the political conversation will turn to another story later this week: immigration, as the reform legislation begins its long march toward a vote in the Senate. But we’ll start with the NSA story… There are three debates now taking place. One, is Snowden a hero who exposed this secret program, or a criminal who revealed classified secrets (and is now hiding in Hong Kong)? Two, what exactly should be classified? The intelligence community, more or less, shrugged its shoulders at the release of the phone-records story; after all, USA Today had reported on it back in 2006. But it’s apoplectic about the disclosure of the PRISM program (which gathers foreign intelligence through information from electronic sources, including major Internet companies). And three, why is much of our national security infrastructure being outsourced to private companies? As the New York Times writes, “Edward J. Snowden’s employer, Booz Allen Hamilton, has become one of the largest and most profitable corporations in the United States almost exclusively by serving a single client: the government of the United States. Over the last decade, much of the company’s growth has come from selling expertise, technology and manpower to the National Security Agency and other federal intelligence agencies.” If something is so important and classified, then why is it outsourced?

*** Obama on the programs: “They help us prevent terrorist attacks”: Answering a reporter’s question on Friday, President Obama came across as sympathetic to having a debate over the NSA program, but he also strongly defended the tactics. “I came in with a healthy skepticism about these programs. My team evaluated them. We scrubbed them thoroughly. We actually expanded some of the oversight, increased some of the safeguards,” he said. “But my assessment and my team’s assessment was that they help us prevent terrorist attacks. And the modest encroachments on privacy that are involved in getting phone numbers or duration without a name attached and not looking at content — that on, you know, net, it was worth us doing.” And he stressed oversight: “It’s important to understand that your duly elected representatives have been consistently informed on exactly what we’re doing.”

*** Clapper: “Transparency has a double-edged sword”: In an interview with NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said the leaks have been harmful to the United States, and that the NSA has “filed a crimes report” on the matter. “Transparency has a double-edged sword. And that our adversaries -- whether a nation state adversaries or nefarious groups -- benefit from that same transparency.” Also in the interview, Clapper said much of the discussion of the massive phone-records database was hyperbole. “So the notion that we're trolling through everyone's emails and voyeuristically reading them, or listening to everyone's phone calls is on its face absurd. We couldn't do it even if we wanted to. And I assure you, we don't want to.” Clapper also said that at least two terror plots had been foiled by the government surveillance program. But he admitted to NBC’s Mitchell that it could be abused by a different administration. “That's a valid concern, I think. You know, people come and go, presidents come and go, administrations come and go, D.N.I.'s will come and go. But what is, I think-- important about our system is our system of laws, our checks and balances.” But our questions: Who has oversight over the FISA court? And does Congress really have oversight or is there only so much information they receive in briefings?

*** Clapper on allegedly misleading Congress: Yet also in the interview, Clapper didn’t have a good response why he seemed to mislead Congress about the program. “First-- as I said, I have great respect for Senator Wyden. I thought, though in retrospect, I was asked—‘When are you going to start-- stop beating your wife’ kind of question, which is meaning not-- answerable necessarily by a simple yes or no. So I responded in what I thought was the most truthful, or least untruthful manner by saying no.” Clapper went on to say that his answer to Wyden was about the content of the phone conversations, not simply archiving the phone records. Clapper is VERY popular inside the Obama administration, but no one will ever mistake him for a good communicator.

*** Rand Paul’s libertarianism becomes mainstream? Politically, what’s interesting is that Rand Paul’s libertarian positions are becoming more and more mainstream. The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza: “Give Sen. Rand Paul this: He very rarely misses a political pitch slung his way. The latest evidence is Paul’s (R-Ky.) plan to launch a class action lawsuit against the government for the National Security Agency’s collection of phone records and monitoring of Internet data. “If we get 10 million Americans saying we don’t want our phone records looked at, then somebody will wake up and say things will change in Washington,” Paul argued during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday.” The question, however, is whether Paul’s positions are mainstream inside the Republican Party.

*** Getting 60 votes for the immigration bill is easy… : As we mentioned above, the issue that’s likely to dominate the rest of the week is immigration, with the Senate holding a cloture vote (requiring 60 votes) on the motion to proceed on the “Gang of Eight” legislation at 2:15 pm ET on Tuesday. And here’s something to keep in mind: There are AT LEAST 60 votes for the bill, especially after Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) announced she was supporting it. According to our math, you take all 54 Democratic votes, add the four GOP “Gang of Eight” members (Flake, Graham, McCain, Rubio), add Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who voted for the measure out of committee, and then add Ayotte. That’s 60 votes, and we’re not even counting likely “yes” votes from folks like Susan Collins (R-ME), Bob Corker (R-TN), or Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN). But the name of the game has never been about getting just 60 votes; it’s been about getting close to 70. And we can list at least five other GOP senators who MIGHT vote the legislation: Roy Blunt (R-MO), Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Dean Heller (R-NV), Mike Johanns (R-NE), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK).

*** Getting 70 is a bit more difficult: But it’s not going to be easy. One of the reasons that immigration reform has been politically possible is that BOTH parties have had an incentive to pass reform -- Democrats want to follow through on a campaign promise, while Republicans want to improve their standing with Latino voters. Yet immigration reform supporters are now biting their fingernails because those incentives are beginning to fray a bit, particularly when it comes to the issue of additional border security. More and more Republicans are arguing that the legislation is flawed and that passing a bill won’t solve their problems with Latinos. Meanwhile, Democrats say they won’t back watered-down legislation that makes a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants virtually unattainable.

*** More border security vs. not undermining the path to citizenship: NBC’s Carrie Dann sums up this conflict: “All eyes this week will be -- again -- on Marco Rubio, who's indicated he'll need more stringent border security amendments included to support the bill -- and bring more conservative votes with him. But measures he's publicly backed (like the inclusion of "triggers" proposed by Texas Sen. John Cornyn and the shifting of more plan-making authority to Congress) are non-starters with Democratic leaders on the legislation. In an interview with Univision, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid called the Cornyn amendment a "poison pill" and said he won't accept "big changes" to the bill on the floor. “I mean, we have a senator from Texas, Senator Cornyn who wants to change border security, a trigger, saying that it has to be a 100% border security, or they’ll be no bill. That’s a poison pill. If people have suggestions like they did in the judiciary committee to change the bill a little bit, I’ll be happy to take a look at that. But we’re not going to have big changes in this legislation." The Washington Post’s Sargent also reports that Democrats see the Cornyn amendment as too onerous and therefore unacceptable to them.

*** McCain on closing Gitmo: Also over the weekend, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said “there is increasing public support for closing the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and moving detainees to a facility on the U.S. mainland,” Reuters writes. “‘There's renewed impetus. And I think that most Americans are more ready,’ McCain, who went to Guantanamo last week with White House chief of staff Denis McDonough and California Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, told CNN's ‘State of the Union’ program.” More: “Republican Senator John McCain said on Sunday there is increasing public support for closing the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and moving detainees to a facility on the U.S. mainland. ‘There's renewed impetus. And I think that most Americans are more ready,’ McCain, who went to Guantanamo last week with White House chief of staff Denis McDonough and California Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, told CNN's "State of the Union" program.”

*** Three’s Company? As expected, the Democratic primary for special Senate election in New Jersey is beginning to get crowded. After Newark Mayor Cory Booker officially announced his Senate bid on Saturday, Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) followed suit a day later. “U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone said Sunday that he’s officially in the race to fill the U.S. Senate seat occupied by Frank Lautenberg and can win the Democratic primary against better-known Newark Mayor Cory Booker by running on his progressive congressional record,” the AP says. “Pallone, (D-6th Dist.) planned to hold a news conference Monday announcing his intentions. He spoke exclusively to The Associated Press on Sunday night.” Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) is the third Democrat to announce his candidacy, and there could be a fourth. “Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver (D-Essex) told fellow Democrats at a meeting Sunday night she was planning to run. Her boss, Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo, was in Booker’s cheering section at his campaign kickoff in Newark.”

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