Jonathan Ernst / Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton makes remarks after being honored with a Distinguished Leadership Award from the Atlantic Council in Washington, May 1, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS ENTERTAINMENT)

Marc Bryan-Brown / AP

This image released by Women in the World shows former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaking at the Women in the World Conference on Friday, April 5, 2013, in New York.

Hillary Clinton made her ballyhooed debut on Twitter on Monday, launching an eponymous account on the popular social media platform.

The former secretary of state and possible presidential candidate in 2016 made public her account on Monday; it had been established earlier, but was restricted to followers who requested access. And to put to rest any doubts about the true proprietor of the account, Twitter “verified” Clinton’s handle shortly after it went public, signifying that the account actually belongs to the former first lady.

In her inaugural tweet, Clinton avoided some of the thorny political issues of the day in favor of something more lighthearted, referencing the popular “Texts from Hillary” tumblr created by two comedians.

Clinton so far follows only four accounts: those of her husband, former President Bill Clinton, his global initiative and foundation, and daughter Chelsea Clinton. The former secretary of state’s official biography on the account also offered an intriguing ellipsis amid an already-established fervor about her future plans:

Wife, mom, lawyer, women & kids advocate, FLOAR, FLOTUS, US Senator, SecState, author, dog owner, hair icon, pantsuit aficionado, glass ceiling cracker, TBD...

This story was originally published on Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:19 PM EDT

Joe Biden will speak at the Virginia Jefferson-Jackson dinner June 29. It’s yet another speech at a fundraising event in an early state. He spoke in Michigan April 20^th and South Carolina May 3^rd.

MASSACHUSETTS: Ed Markey (D) and Gabriel Gomez (R) debate Tuesday in Springfield, Mass. Their final debate will be June 18, a week before the June 25^th special election.

Former Gov. Paul Cellucci died Saturday of ALS. He was 65.

NEW JERSEY: Cory Booker made it official Saturday and jumped into the Senate special election to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg. Ex-Sen. Bill Bradley introduced Booker.

But Democrats don’t plan to make his life easy. Buzzfeed: “New Jersey Democrats involved in and following the race to fill the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg say the Newark mayor is the clear favorite, but that his opponents will work to expose a number of weak points in his narrative to take down the national political celebrity.”

(But here’s the thing: They have ONLY two months to do this, given that the Dem primary will take place in August.)

Star Ledger: “Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver (D-Essex) [Sunday night] became the fourth major Democrat to throw herself into the race for U.S. Senate.”

VIRGINIA: The investigation into Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) expands. “A Virginia state delegate has confirmed that he’s been called to appear next month as a witness before a federal grand jury as part of an investigation related to Gov. Robert F. McDonnell,” The Washington Post reports. 

Since last December, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has been measuring the favorability-unfavorability numbers for the potential 2016 candidates.

And here’s a fun little exercise First Read has undertaken: We've ranked the Republican possibilities by popularity -- among GOP respondents in the poll, as well conservatives respondents.

There are two big findings: One, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the former 2012 Republican vice-presidential nominee, and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) are leading the pack. And two, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie -- despite his crossover appeal -- is trailing among Republicans and conservatives.

And get this: Christie has better ratings among liberal Democrats (44% positive, 14% negative) than he does among Republicans (40% favorable, 16% unfavorable) or conservatives (33 favorable, 15% unfavorable).

Among Republican respondents in the NBC/WSJ poll:

Paul Ryan: 62% favorable, 13% unfavorable (Dec. 2012 poll)
Rand Paul: 53% favorable, 6% unfavorable (April 2013)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.): 49% favorable, 6% unfavorable (April 2013)
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: 48% favorable, 7% unfavorable (May-June 2013)
Chris Christie: 40% favorable, 16% unfavorable (May-June 2013)
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 21% favorable, 5% unfavorable (May-June 2013)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas): 21% favorable, 6% unfavorable (May-June 2013)

And here’s the ranking among conservative respondents in our poll:

Paul Ryan: 58% favorable, 11% unfavorable
Rand Paul: 47% favorable, 5% unfavorable
Marco Rubio: 45% favorable, 6% unfavorable
Jeb Bush: 44% favorable, 7% unfavorable
Chris Christie: 33% favorable, 15% unfavorable
Ted Cruz: 21% favorable, 6% unfavorable
Scott Walker 19% favorable, 5% unfavorable

Privacy vs. transparency… How much political staying power does this story have?... May jobs report: 175,000 jobs added last month; unemployment rate ticks up to 7.6%... The White House’s health-care PR problem… Ranking the 2016 GOPers… Christie’s appointment and Booker’s slam dunk… This week’s 2016 wrap… And other noteworthy nuggets from the NBC/WSJ poll.

AP

This undated government photo shows an aerial view of the National Security Agency (NSA) in Fort Meade, Md. The Obama administration on Thursday defended the National Security Agency's need to collect telephone records of U.S. citizens, calling such information "a critical tool in protecting the nation from terrorist threats."

*** Transparency problems: The news of the National Security Agency’s surveillance programs has dominated the last 48 hours. To understand the political impact of this story, it’s perhaps instructive to look at it through this lens: privacy vs. transparency -- and transparency could be the most potent issue for an administration that promised to be the most transparent in history. What the White House has to understand is this: The president’s own credibility is on the line on this story when it comes to transparency. Candidate Obama expressed outrage over many of these programs back in the day and at the time, and when pressed at the time his outrage usually centered on how the tactics were implemented, not necessarily with the tactics themselves. The president promised more transparency about some of these operations, tactics and about making sure the public was comfortable that there was a serious process when it comes to oversight of these programs. You can’t just take anyone’s word for it, even he has said that numerous times. And that’s the political problem he needs to nip in the bud. The public expects a level of secrecy but not an abuse of it and they certainly expect an explanation. 

*** Privacy less an issue:  As privacy issue, it’s likely that the American public will collectively shrug its shoulders over this. Why? Because they probably realize that corporations are already tracking their every purchase and that surveillance cameras are already capturing their every movement. And even if they don’t shrug and it bothers them, they probably feel a bit powerless about it. But as a transparency issue, the story might have more legs. The whole reason this has become front-page news -- when USA Today had already reported about the NSA phone-record program back in 2006 -- is because of its secrecy. And the question the Obama administration must ask itself is: Would it be better off if the American public knew about this? Would it restore more trust in the government? 

*** How much staying power does this story have? As a strictly partisan issue, however, we’re not sure this story has staying power. After all, outside of a handful of libertarian Republicans (Rand Paul, Mike Lee), GOP politicians are defending the NSA’s programs. On the Democratic side of the aisle, there are critics too, but it appears to be a minority of the party. As we figured would happen, bipartisanship broke out in a big way yesterday on this issue -- both in support of the tactics and in opposition. But that bipartisanship on both sides of this issue probably also means it’s not exactly an issue that will have political staying power. If you’ve learned anything about American politics, a story becomes supercharged when the opposition party begins raising its voice in unison. And out of all the controversies the Obama administration is facing (IRS, Benghazi, leak investigations, and now NSA), this is one a majority of Republicans have no problem with.

*** 175,000 jobs added in May, unemployment rate ticks up to 7.6%: Meanwhile, here are the breaking job numbers from May, per the AP: “U.S. employers added 175,000 jobs in May, steady hiring but below the more robust pace that took place during the fall and winter. The Labor Department says the unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.5 percent in April. The increase occurred because more people began looking for work, a good sign.” This economy is trying so hard to recover; call it stagnant progress. Many Democrats are going to be arguing today that if it wasn’t for the austerity standoff in Washington (including sequester), the economy would be recovering A LOT faster. The Republicans will likely focus their ire on the slowness of this recovery on the new tax increases. But make no mistake: Progress is being made.

*** The White House’s health-care PR problem: In California at 11:50 am ET, President Obama delivers a statement to reporters on implementing the Affordable Care Act. And it’s another opportunity to mention the numbers from our recent NBC/WSJ poll: The health-care law’s unpopularity has reached new heights -- 49% say it’s a bad idea (the higher number recorded on this question since the poll began measuring it in ’09), while just 37% say it’s a good idea. The poll also finds that 38% say they and their family will be worse off under the health-care law, which also is the highest percentage on this question that dates back to 2010. By comparison, 19% say they'll be better off, and 39 percent say the law won't make much of a difference. The poll, however, shows deep divisions by political party and health insurance status. By a 35%-to-11% margin, Democrats say they'll be better off under the health-care law. But Republicans say they'll be worse off, 67% to 4%. What's more, those who currently don't have health insurance have a more positive view of the health-care law than those who have insurance -- either through individual purchase or through their employer. Bottom line here: The Obama White House has a massive PR problem with health care. And it probably doesn’t help that opponents have outspent supporters on TV ads by a 5-to-1 ratio since 2010, per Kantar Media CMAG.

*** Ranking the GOP 2016ers: Since December, our NBC/WSJ poll has begun measuring potential 2016 candidates. And here’s a fun little exercise: We’re ranking these GOP politicians among Republican respondents in the poll, as well conservatives respondents. Here’s the order among Republicans:

Paul Ryan (62%-13%)
Rand Paul (53%-6%)
Marco Rubio (49%-6%)
Jeb Bush (48%-7%)
Chris Christie: (40%-16%)
Scott Walker (21%-5%)
Ted Cruz (21%-6%)

And here’s the ranking among conservative respondents in our poll:

Paul Ryan (58%-11%)
Rand Paul (47%-5%)
Marco Rubio (45%-6%)
Jeb Bush (44%-7%)
Chris Christie (33%-15%)
Ted Cruz (21%-6%)
Scott Walker (19%-5%).

So note how well Ryan and Paul are faring, and note how Christie is trailing among these groups.

*** Christie’s appointment and Booker’s slam dunk: Speaking of Christie, he announced yesterday that he was appointing state Attorney General Jeff Chiesa to temporarily fill the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s (D-NJ) passing. Make no mistake: Appointing a caretaker like Chiesa wasn’t Christie’s first choice, but he had no choice after announcing that the Senate election would take place in October. (If you’re a Republican, you’d rather want to run alongside Christie in November, or wait until 2014.) But here’s perhaps the biggest story out New Jersey this week: No one has been more helped by this entire process than Cory Booker. Quick Democratic primary? Check. Two Democratic congressmen who are also running (Pallone and Holt) that might split the anti-Booker vote? Check. October general election? Check. On paper, Booker’s election is starting to look like a slam dunk.

*** This week’s 2016 wrap: Also this week, Hillary Clinton spoke at Frank Lautenberg’s funeral; she was argued over during a Massachusetts Senate debate; and at a fashion awards gala she joked about her pantsuits. Wearing one designed by Oscar de la Renta, she said she had pitched a new reality show, “Project Pantsuit.”… Vice President Joe Biden also spoke at Lautenberg’s funeral and the L.A. Times dubbed him, “King of the eulogy.”… Martin O’Malley’s (D-MD) still dealing with the fallout of a scandal at a Baltimore jail… Marco Rubio continues to walk a very fine line on immigration reform, speaking out at times against the very bill he helped author and voted for out of committee… Raul Labrador may have walked away from the group negotiating a compromise immigration bill in the House, but Paul Ryan endorsed it, calling it a “good product” and “good policy.”… And Rand Paul’s not happy with the NSA or President Obama; he claimed Obama’s “bent towards authoritarianism is probably worse” than Bush; and that we’re living in the novel “1984.” …

*** By the way, here are the fav/unfav numbers among ALL the potential 2016ers from this week’s NBC/WSJ poll:

Hillary Clinton
Overall: 49%-31%
Women: 54%-24%
Men: 43%-40%
Whites: 41%-38%
African Americans: 76%-12%
Latinos: 58%-19%
Dems: 83%-6%
Indies: 32%-36%
Republicans: 15%-61%

Chris Christie
Overall: 41%-12%
Women: 39%-12%
Men: 42%-12%
Whites: 41%-12%
African Americans: 41%-11%
Latinos: 36%-7%
Dems: 43%-10%
Indies: 41%-9%
Republicans: 40%-16%
Tea Party supporters: 40%-22%

Ted Cruz
Overall: 10%-12%
Women: 6%-12%
Men: 13%-12%
Whites: 10%-12%
African Americans: 5%-18%
Latinos: 16%-8%
Dems: 3%-23%
Indies: 11%-8%
Republicans: 18%-5%
Tea Party supporters: 28%-10%

Jeb Bush
Overall: 26%-23%
Women: 32%-21%
Men: 29%-26%
Whites: 30%-22%
African Americans: 6%-32%
Latinos: 16%-24%
Dems: 11%-38%
Indies: 22%-24%
Republicans: 48%-7%
Tea Party supporters: 53%-10%

Scott Walker
Overall: 12%-12%
Women: 9%-10%
Men: 15%-14%
Whites: 13%-12%
African Americans: 5%-12%
Latinos: 8%-6%
Dems: 4%-20%
Indies: 11%-10%
Republicans: 21%-5%
Tea Party: 33%-4%

*** Other noteworthy nuggets from our NBC/WSJ poll: Chris Christie has better ratings among liberal Democrats (44% positive, 14% negative) than he does among Tea Party Republicans (37% positive, 23% negative)… Eric Holder is viewed overwhelmingly negatively by Republicans (4% positive, 55% negative) and independents (5% positive, 32% negative). Democrats are more likely to view Holder positively than negatively, but their feelings are just so-so (19% positive, 13% negative). Perhaps most striking, Holder is much better known among Republicans (72% name ID) than he is among Democrats (50% name ID)… While all socioeconomic groups view the Internal Revenue Service in a negative light, those with incomes under $30,000 are almost twice as likely to view the IRS positively (27%) as those with incomes of more than $75,000 (14%)… Among Tea Party Republicans, Ted Cruz has a name ID of 57%, plus a 28% positive, 7% negative personal rating. But among non-Tea Party Republicans, his name ID is just 22%, and he has a 7% positive, 5% negative rating… And Among those who believe that the Dow hitting highs is a sign that the economy is doing better overall, 68% are satisfied with the economy and 31% are dissatisfied. But among those who believe that the Dow highs are an indication that corporations and the wealthy are doing better but not the overall economy, just 26% are satisfied with the economy and 74% are dissatisfied.

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As the country “evolves” on the issue of gay marriage, Republicans are taking a closer look once again at the political reality of officially opposing it -- particularly in terms of the youth vote.

College Republicans put a number to it, Monday. Their national committee’s post-election report said one-quarter of voters ages 18-29 said that that they could not vote for a politician who opposed same-sex marriage. (This figure is based on two national surveys with 800 registered voters in that age group in addition to sessions with six focus groups of young voters considered “winnable” for the GOP, including Hispanics and Asian Americans.)

The report, which stayed away from specific policy recommendations, comes as support for gay marriage continues to climb. Overall, 53 percent of voters now say they support same-sex marriage, according to an April NBC News/WSJ poll. But there is a sizable gulf between Democrats (73 percent support) and Republicans (66 percent oppose). But when it comes to younger voters, they overwhelmingly support it; 64 percent of 18-to-34-year-olds favor it, while 29 percent oppose.

The December “Growth and Opportunity” report by the Republican National Committee, seen as an autopsy of what went wrong with the 2012 election, also alluded to gay marriage as a potential problem for the GOP in trying to appeal to younger voters.

“On messaging, we must change our tone — especially on certain social issues that are turning off young voters,” the report read. “In every session with young voters, social issues were at the forefront of the discussion; many see them as the civil rights issues of our time. We must be a party that is welcoming and inclusive for all voters.”

But the RNC’s recommendations were met with opposition from socially conservative groups, which pointed out that the party’s official platform stands against same-sex marriage.

“We believe that marriage, the union of one man and one woman must be upheld as the national standard, a goal to stand for, encourage, and promote through laws governing marriage,” the platform reads.

Thirteen prominent groups issued a letter to RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, rebuking him for a perceived “abandonment of principles.” They asked that he confirm the party platform in opposition to gay marriage, by ordering a fresh resolution.

Priebus complied.

At the RNC’s quarterly meeting in Los Angeles the following week, the 168-member RNC voted unanimously to reaffirm the platform.

“The only reason that we see support among young voters falling on the marriage issue is that there aren’t enough public advocates explaining why it matters,” contended Ryan T. Anderson, who writes about marriage and religious liberty for the conservative Heritage Foundation.

Anderson and others want conservatives to “redouble efforts” to prevent gay marriage, because, as Anderson sees it, what’s driving the change is young voters’ perception that Republicans who oppose gay marriage are wrongly involved in the romantic lives of consenting adults. That’s not the case, Anderson said, arguing that he and others are concerned with keeping biological families together.

“The political community is concerned with making sure that the man and a woman, who created a child, commit to each other and then take responsibility for the child,” he said. “That’s what [traditional] marriage does.”

Sam Bain, outgoing state chairman of the Ohio College Republican Federation -- who said he personally believes in traditional marriage, but doesn't believe the government should have any role -- said that, if there is a change in the party, it will come when the next generation is in power.

“Youth will drive any change that comes about as opposed to the establishment of the party,” he said.

To that point, as Anderson noted, and polling shows, young Republicans are increasingly breaking away from the party on the issue. A Pew survey released in March, for example, found that 37 percent of young Republicans support same-sex marriage, as opposed to just 26 percent of the party overall.

While he does not necessarily think a policy change in favor of gay marriage is in order, Bain said he has noticed it is not as galvanizing an issue for his members.

“It might turn some people off,” he said, “but I think the youth are more open. I don’t think it would turn a number off.”

Even among those who oppose gay marriage, a majority – 59 percent – see legalization as “inevitable,” according to a survey released, Thursday, by Pew; that’s compared to 72 percent all totaled who say legalization is going to happen.

Crystal Benton, a member of the Young Conservatives Leadership Committee for Freedom to Marry -- a pro-same-sex marriage group of which Meghan McCain and Jon Huntsman’s daughters are part -- feels more strongly than Bain. Benton said she thinks younger voters --many of whom have gay friends or family members -- see a stance against gay marriage as discriminatory and that communicating the old message differently won’t matter.

“Saying we’re for family values, bolstered by marriage, but then adding, ‘But not for you,’ is no way for our party to lead,” Benton said. “And it’s certainly no way to win.”

This story was originally published on Thu Jun 6, 2013 1:21 PM EDT

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will cruise to the GOP nomination Tuesday for governor, but the Republican isn’t winning plaudits on either side of the aisle for his controversial decision to hold an October 2013 special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

Christie made clear in his announcement he wasn’t concerned with politics behind his choice to hold a costly race that didn’t coincide with his own November re-election just three weeks later.

But Democrats are immediately zeroing in on his comments about the expensive primary and general election, after the Republican said in his Tuesday press conference he didn’t know how much the non-regularly scheduled election would cost the state -- and he didn’t care.

The cost, as estimated by the New Jersey Office of Legislative Services, could be upwards of $24 million, with the primary and general elections each costing nearly $12 million.

“I don’t know what the cost would is, and quite frankly I don’t care,” Christie said. “The cost cannot be measured against the value of having an elected representative in the United States Senate when so many important issues are being debated this year."

Christie is still the heavy favorite for re-election this November against Democrat Barbara Buono, but Democrats now see an opening to criticize the popular Republican, who’s made his tight spending in office a key campaign point, that they didn’t have before.

"Earlier this year, the Governor cited money as to why he vetoed early voting. However, despite costing millions of dollars, Governor Christie made the cynical and arrogant decision to call a special election in October. His choice made it clear that he does not care about wasting taxpayer money,” Buono spokesman David Turner said in a statement. “Moreover, by holding two elections within weeks of each other, the Governor will needlessly disenfranchise voters. He should change his decision and hold the election on November 5."

The Democratic Governors Association also piled on, with Executive Director Colm O’Comartun slamming Christie as ambivalent toward the cost.

"Governor Christie might not know or care how many millions of taxpayer dollars his special election gambit will waste, but the people of New Jersey certainly do,” O’Comartun said. “Christie should do the right thing, protect New Jersey taxpayer dollars instead of his own political career, and hold the Senate election on the same day as his own.”

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid seemed to not get the messaging memo, though, and told reporters he was “happy with” Christie’s decision.

“I have never met Governor Christie," Reid said, "but I have to say that this, what he has done, keeps the people of New Jersey involved in who is going serve them in the Senate. I think that it’s the right thing to do." 

The Senate’s top Democrat added, "An election this year, he could have tried to play around with it and done it in 2014; I think, in this regard, he did the right thing." 

Senate Republicans didn’t publicly rebuke of Christie’s pick, choosing instead to highlight the Democratic discord that’s likely brewing. But they didn’t issue a ringing endorsement of his timeline, either, with the GOP clearly preferring a November 2014 election.

“Governor Christie has always made decisions based upon what he feels is best for New Jersey,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring. “Democrats will now face an ugly primary sprint between Cory Booker, Frank Pallone, and others -- all with substantial war chests and a healthy dislike for each other. Cory Booker did not want to have to wrap this up in two months against two well-funded Democratic opponents."

Senate Democrats actually sounded the happiest with Christie’s decision, pointing to the state’s blue tilt, and gleefully noting the disdain of their GOP counterparts.

“Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Jersey in more than 40 years. Their only shot was an appointee who had a year and a half to establish themselves before an election in 2014,” the DSCC’s Matt Canter said. “With this news I assume operatives at the NRSC are busy planning Christie’s defeat in Iowa and NH right now.”

Hillary’s ’16 numbers come back down to earth, even though she leads both Jeb Bush and Rand Paul… Yet Biden trails against both Republicans… This week’s 2016 round-up… Obama talks student loans at 10:20 am ET… America’s political realignment is now complete… Pryor’s up with his first TV ad… Demographics and affirmative action… Romney’s back in the news… And Rogers, Schumer to appear on “Meet."

Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton makes remarks after being honored with a Distinguished Leadership Award from the Atlantic Council in Washington, May 1, 2013.

*** Hillary’s 2016 numbers come back down to Earth: Yes, it’s early to discuss 2016. Yes, everything right now is speculation. And, yes, so much can happen in the next two or three years. But it’s Friday, and we have a new 2016 poll to chew on. According to a new Quinnipiac survey, Hillary Clinton still looks strong against potential GOP competitors, but her numbers -- not surprisingly -- have come back down to earth. She leads both Jeb Bush (48%-40%) and Rand Paul (49%-41%) by eight points. Yet back in a March Quinnipiac survey, she was ahead of Marco Rubio by 16 points (50%-34%) and Paul Ryan by 12 (50%-38%), though her edge against the popular Chris Christie was smaller (45%-37%). There are two explanations for this. First, Republicans have started coming back home. While 11% of Republicans backed her in the March match up against Rubio, just 8% of GOPers support her in this new survey against Jeb Bush (though that’s a very small change). Second, she’s now essentially splitting the indie vote when she was leading back in March. Nevertheless, here is why Clinton remains so formidable: She’s running ahead of both Bush and Paul among women by 20-plus points, and she trails among men in the single digits. If she runs and if that gender gaps persists, she’d be VERY DIFFICULT to beat. The Quinnipiac poll also shows that Clinton’s fav/unfav has dropped to 52%-40%, although last week’s Washington Post/ABC poll had her approval rating at 62%.

*** Biden trails both Bush and Ryan: Meanwhile, the same May Quinnipiac poll finds Vice President Biden trailing both Bush (38%-44%) and Paul (39%-43%). Yet back in March, the vice president was ahead of Rubio (45%-38%) and Ryan (45%-42%), though he trailed Christie (40%-43%). Perhaps the best way to view Biden is as a generic Democratic candidate (i.e., someone who ISN’T Hillary Clinton). And at least according to this Quinnipiac poll, Democrats were in a stronger position in March than they are now.

*** This week’s 2016 round-up: Hillary Clinton marched in a Memorial Day Parade with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo…  New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was playing arcade games with President Obama again…. Ted Cruz went to New York, where he helped the state GOP raise about $750,000. He said of the Republican Party’s problems: “I am going to suggest that the last election can be explained in two words: 47 percent. … "I think Republicans are, and should be, the party of the 47%."… Jeb Bush isn’t taking his mother’s advice that the U.S. has had “enough Bushes.” He said in Michigan: "What can I tell you? All I can say is we all have mothers, right? She is totally liberated, and God bless her." As for running for president, he said he’d start thinking about it in about a year. … Rand Paul does not agree with aiding Syrian rebels. … Marco Rubio says repealing ObamaCare is the way to fix the IRS. And immigration advocates are worried that Rubio’s comments noting that the bill needs to change could weaken it… Ann Romney said she’s “very, very partial to Paul Ryan” for 2016… And Martin O’Malley spoke at CAP. He didn’t mention 2016, but he did tout Maryland’s progressive policies as mainstream.

*** Obama talks student loans: At 10:20 am ET at the White House, President Obama delivers remarks on student-loan legislation. Per the White House, he “will call on Congress to help keep college affordable for middle-class families and students by preventing student loan interest rates from doubling on July 1.” A little background on this, per USA Today: The student loan bill House Republicans recently passed would fluctuate with the markets, something they say was proposed by Obama in the State of the Union. But Obama wants loans fixed from when someone takes out a loan for the life of it, like a fixed mortgage. Republicans want to have the loan rate re-evaluated every year based on the market rate. Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says it’s running ads in college papers (print and online) accusing Republicans of voting for legislation that raises interest rates.

*** America’s political realignment is now complete: To understand how much American politics has changed since the 1960s -- heck, since the 1990s -- here’s something to consider: After the 2014 midterms, it’s possible that, for the first time, all of New England’s governors could be Democrats. And it’s equally possible that, for the first time, all of the states of the former Confederacy could have Republican governors. (Hat tip to Harry Enten who first pointed this scenario out to us after Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee switched to the Democratic Party.) Of course, a Republican could win in Massachusetts’ open gubernatorial race next year, or Gov. Paul LePage (R) could win re-election in Maine. And Terry McAuliffe (D) could win this year in Virginia, Democrats could hold on in Arkansas, or a Charlie Crist (D) could win Florida’s governor’s mansion. But outside of those potential exceptions, it’s inescapable that a full party realignment -- now on the governor side -- has taken place after the Civil Rights Act, Nixon’s Southern Strategy, and Barack Obama’s election and re-election. Once dominated by Republicans, New England has now become a Democratic stronghold. And once dominated by Democrats, the South is almost completely controlled by Republicans.

*** Pryor up with first TV ad -- “No one from New York or Washington tells me what to do”: The realignment also could play out in next year’s Senate contests. Per NBC’s Kasie Hunt, endangered Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas has started airing TV ads defending himself against attacks from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's gun-control group. It's his first ad of the 2014 cycle, and begins airing today (18 months before Election Day!!!) "The mayor of New York City is running ads against me because I opposed President Obama's gun-control legislation. Nothing in the Obama plan would have prevented tragedies like Newtown, Aurora, Tucson or even Jonesboro," Pryor says in an ad straight to the camera. "I'm Mark Pryor, I approved this message because no one from New York or Washington tells me what to do. I listen to Arkansas.”

*** Demographics and affirmative action: With the Supreme Court set to rule on an affirmative-action case later this month, National Journal’s Ron Brownstein points out that the country’s changing demographics have altered the debate over affirmative action. “When the Supreme Court decided Bakke [in 1978], whites still made up 80 percent of America's population, including almost three-fourths of those under 18. But minorities now constitute more than 36 percent of the total population and are on track to become a majority of the youth population before 2020.” More: “Federal figures show that nonwhites comprised 47 percent of the 2011 class entering higher education, up from one-third in 1996. The problem is that those overall numbers mask the emergence of what Anthony Carnevale and Jeff Strohl of Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce have called a ‘de facto dual system’ of higher education in which minorities and low-income kids are funneling mostly into the least selective (and rewarding) schools.”

*** Romney’s back in the news: In advance of the $5,000 per-couple retreat he’s hosting in Utah next week, Mitt Romney gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal, in which he talked about the public/political role he wants to play, criticized President Obama, and expressed regrets about the ’12 campaign. Romney “is considering writing a book and a series of opinion pieces, and has plans to campaign for 2014 candidates. But he is wary of overdoing it. ‘I'm not going to be bothering the airwaves with a constant series of speeches.’” More: “‘The extraordinary disappointment of the president's second term is where the opportunity was greatest, he has proposed the least,’ he said. ‘He continues to campaign as if there is another election, and there isn't.’” And Romney said “that the GOP needs ‘to translate our message in a way that minorities understand,’ and that he wished his campaign had poured more money into ads targeting Hispanic voters.”

*** Rogers, Schumer to appear on “Meet”: On “Meet the Press” this Sunday, NBC’s David Gregory interviews Rep. Mike Rogers and Sen. Chuck Schumer.

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Hillary Clinton continues to lead the 2016 field. Quinnipiac has her beating Jeb Bush 48%-40%, and Rand Paul 49%-41%. But some of the sheen is already starting to come off Clinton’s favorability rating. She goes from 61%/38% in February to 52% /40% now after the Benghazi hearings and attacks from Republicans. (Her drop off is mostly with Republicans but also with independents.)

And regarding Joe Biden, he loses to both Bush (44%-38%) and Paul (43%-39%). And Biden is a net-negative – 37%/44%. Paul is a net-positive – 32%-24% and Bush is 29%/29%.

Mitt Romney is looking to get back on the national stage: “The former Republican presidential nominee plans to welcome 200 friends and supporters to a three-day summit next week that he will host at a Utah mountain resort. He is considering writing a book and a series of opinion pieces, and has plans to campaign for 2014 candidates. But he is wary of overdoing it." But, he added, “I'm not going to be bothering the airwaves with a constant series of speeches."

ARKANSAS: NBC’s Kasie Hunt reports: Arkansas Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor - arguably the most endangered Democrat who's up for reelection in 2014 - has started airing TV ads defending himself against attacks from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's gun control group.  It's his first ad of the 2014 cycle - and begins airing today, about 18 months before Election Day. "The mayor of New York City is running ads against me because I opposed President Obama's gun control legislation. Nothing in the Obama plan would have prevented tragedies like Newtown Aurora, Tucson or even Jonesboro," Pryor says in an ad straight to the camera. "I'm Mark Pryor, I approved this message because no one from New York or Washington tells me what to do. I listen to Arkansas," he says.

MASSACHUSETTS: Gabriel Gomez (R) still won’t say if he would have voted for the Blunt Amendment, which would have given employers the option to not pay for their workers’ birth control.

Is Gomez having trouble raising money?

NEW MEXICO: “Jamie Estrada, fired campaign manager to Susana Martinez, was indicted today on computer intrusion and false statement charges,” KOB TV reports. “The charges stem from the interception of emails between Martinez and members of her staff between July 2011 and June 2012.” Martinez said in a statement: “The federal felony indictment today vindicates what I have been saying for almost a full year – that the personal and political emails of dozens of people, including my own, were hijacked, stolen, and never received by the intended recipients.”

NEW YORK: Ouch. The New York Times on Christine Quinn’s forthcoming memoir: "Ms. Quinn's candor about her personal life is as notable as her vagueness about politics. There is not a single reference to the slush-fund scandal that has been her lowest point as speaker. She says little about her relationship with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, whom she calls 'my colleague.' The battle over term limits is disposed of in two pages, while thousands of words are devoted to her wedding last year." (h/t Political Wire.)

NORTH CAROLINA: State House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) is throwing his hat in the ring against Kay Hagan (D). He’s considered by Republicans to be a “very serious” candidate.

The News & Observer: “Tillis could face a crowded primary. Others named as possible contenders include U.S. Reps. Virginia Foxx of Banner Elk and Renee Ellmers of Dunn; state Sen. Phil Berger; and former ambassador Jim Cain. So far, however, Dr. Greg Bannon, a Cary OB-GYN, is the only Republican Senate candidate who has announced.”

VIRGINIA: Terry McAuliffe (D) claimed some measure of credit for the transportation bill in the state passing, despite holding no elective office. In a recent ad, an announcer says, “...(T)ea party Republicans refuse to support the plan, but Terry McAuliffe thinks this is too important a time for partisan politics. McAuliffe reaches out to Democrats and urges them to support the bill, and the bill passes.”

AP fact checks that today: “As a high-profile booster, McAuliffe certainly did no harm. But to imply a role much beyond that is like hailing a team mascot for a decisive buzzer-beating 3-point basket. Far more credit is owed to House and Senate Democratic leaders who kept their caucuses together and worked quietly for weeks alongside McDonnell and select Republicans to keep the bill afloat in turbulent and treacherous seas.”

Buzzfeed dug up a McAuliffe CSPAN bite in which he blames Bush for his father’s death. “There are many reasons why people thought Jack had died. He was 83 years old. And I said the main reason is that he could not go into a new year knowing that a Republican was actually moving into the White House. I just don’t think he could’ve handled that. He had eight great years. President Clinton and First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton were so nice to my mother and father, they’d come down all the time. So he had a great eight years when President Clinton and Vice President Gore were in office, and he just wasn’t going into a new year with a Democrat not being in the White House Steve, he just couldn’t handle it.”

Just more than a month into his “reflection time” on a 2016 presidential run, Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is trumpeting his state’s recent sweep of progressive legislative initiatives -- repealing the death penalty, enacting strict gun-control measures, allowing certain undocumented immigrants to pay in-state college tuition (the state DREAM Act), and legalizing same-sex marriage -- as mainstream and in line with the direction of the country.

“The ideology of the past no longer serves the challenges of these rapidly changing times," he said Thursday at the liberal-leaning Center for American Progress. "Our children demand and they deserve a new way of leadership…that is measured by whether or not we achieve results. It’s not about whether we move left or right; it’s about whether we move forward.”

O’Malley called investments financed by new revenue good governance, especially when used to expand the middle class.

“Trickle-down economics has been an abject failure for 99-percent of Americans,” he said.

At the rollout of a report by the CAP Action Fund on what it deemed the best state practices to rebuild the middle class, O'Malley presented what he said was a pro-business resume. Citing a Chamber of Commerce report, he boasted of Maryland’s No. 1 ranking in "entrepreneurship and innovation," as well as top rankings in median income, public education, and its strong private-sector economic growth as well as its AAA bond rating.

Critics, however, have long lamented Maryland's higher corporate tax, as compared to neighboring Virginia. They contend Maryland has lost businesses as well as residents because of its higher tax burden. Chief Executive magazine rated Maryland as one of the worst states for business in the country, and Virginia as one of the best. An O'Malley adviser counters with an Anderson Economic Group study showing the state with the nation's seventh-lowest  tax burden for businesses.

If O'Malley does run in 2016, his record as governor of Maryland, including the liberal policies he's pursued and the state's record in attracting businesses, will be under the microscope. 

The promotion of his record at a group with ties to President Obama and Clinton -- John Podesta, who founded CAP, was head of Obama’s 2008 presidential transition team and worked in the Clinton White House -- is no doubt a feather in O'Malley's cap with the progressive base as he considers a presidential bid.

In late April, confirming speculation, he told the Associated Press on a trip to Jerusalem that he intends to dedicate the later part of the year to considering a run. (While in Israel, O'Malley gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a Joe Flacco Baltimore Ravens football jersey. The Ravens won the 2013 Super Bowl.)

O’Malley made no explicit mention of 2016 at the event, but did focus heavily on his own achievements in Maryland -- as opposed to other national Democrats, the way, for example, some prominent Republican governors reference each other.

O'Malley framed what he sees as the state’s economic successes as a result of becoming more inclusive.

“The better choices we’ve made in Maryland also go beyond the budget," he said. "They go beyond the fiscal discipline and the tough balancing. We also believe that equal rights and inclusion, diversity, an open society, respect for the dignity of every individual and the dignity of every child’s home…that all of these things make Maryland a more innovative and creative place for business and for job creation.”

Maryland was heavily featured as an exemplary state in the center’s new report, “States at Work: Progressive State Policies to Rebuild the Middle Class.”

In addition to same-sex marriage and the state DREAM Act, O’Malley noted the state’s “living-wage” law, continued investments in education throughout the recession, and progressive income tax brackets. Tom Hucker, one of five authors of the report, serves in the Maryland legislature.

Editor's note: An earlier version of this story noted that O'Malley might still run for president if Hillary Clinton does. But an O'Malley adviser tells First Read that's not the case -- he won't run if she does.

The L.A. Times profiles George P. Bush: “He is the fourth generation to enter the family business: Great-grandpa was a U.S. senator, grandpa and an uncle were presidents, dad was a governor. And even if his aim is conspicuously low, a run for the office of Texas land commissioner, expectations could not be higher — the governorship sometime in the next decade, followed, in the manner of dynastic destiny, with another White House reign. First, though, there is next year's election and the attendant need for Bush to banish even the slightest hint of complacency, much less entitlement.”

More: Unlike his grandfather, George H.W., and uncle, George W., who were Connecticut-born transplants to Texas, he carries not the slightest whiff of Northeastern privilege. A graduate of Houston's Rice University and the law school at the University of Texas in Austin, the younger Bush has taught inner-city school kids and served in Navy intelligence in Afghanistan, where, for security reasons, he worked under an assumed name. He lives with his wife, Amanda, in Fort Worth, where he founded an energy consulting firm. Their first child, a boy, is due later this year. Despite his political immersion and considerable charm, however, Bush is not a naturally gifted campaigner. His debut speech before a gathering of business and political leaders — and a bank of TV cameras — was generally panned for its platitudes and wooden, somewhat nervous delivery.”

Politico wonders who Hillary Clinton would hire if she runs in 2016.

MASSACHUSETTS: Gabriel Gomez (R) called Ed Markey (D) “pond scum.” Markey released his tax returns.

NEW YORK: “Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo, the prohibitive 2016 Democratic front-runner and the New York governor believed to be interested in the White House, were in lockstep Monday for Memorial Day,” Politico writes. “The pair marched together in a Westchester parade marking the day.”

“Donald Trump has spent more than $1 million on electoral research for a potential presidential run in 2016,” the New York Post writes. (But if anyone thinks he’s SERIOUSLY thinking about a presidential bid, we have some real estate in Antarctica we’ve love to sell you….)

VIRGINIA: Retired Sen. John Warner (R) declined to endorse Ken Cuccinelli (R) for governor. He told the Richmond Times Dispatch: “Each person in our state’s got to make their own judgment. … On that issue, I maintain a golden silence — because the facts are clear for all to interpret.”

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — Nearly three years before the 2016 election, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker took center stage in Iowa to address a large Republican fundraising dinner, which should only fuel speculation about his future presidential ambitions.

Walker, who survived a bitter recall effort in his home state in 2011 after he repealed collective bargaining rights for most public employees, emphasized his Iowa roots at a county dinner, and said the GOP should look to its roster of governors for a leader in the future.

“We should look to our states, to our governors, to our state legislative leaders to show the pathway we take not only in our states but in our country to move forward,” the Wisconsin governor told more than 600 people in attendance at the annual Polk County GOP dinner. “Optimism, relevance, and courage I think are the three keys to success in 2014, 2016 and beyond.”

The first-term governor, who is up for re-election in 2014, has pushed a reformist message for fellow Republicans (similar to the themes he stressed during speeches at this year's Conservative Political Action Conference as well as the National Rifle Association's annual meeting).

Those themes assume a greater significance, though, in Iowa, the state which hosts the first presidential nominating contest every four years. 

“The president and his allies they simply measure success by how many people are dependent on the government, how many people are on Medicaid, food stamps, unemployment compensation,” Walker said. “We should measure success by how many people are not.”

Walker's work to curb collective bargaining rights in Wisconsin, a stronghold of organized labor, has made him a hero among conservatives — and boosted his prospects as a dark horse contender for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016.

“If I wanted to lay the groundwork for a presidential run in Iowa, I would be doing precisely what Gov. Walker is doing right now,” Republican activist Dave Funk said.

If Walker does decide to run for president, he has clear advantages in Iowa. He lived in northeastern Iowa when he was young -- mentioning during the speech that he stopped in Plainfield on his way to Des Moines tonight. He also represents a neighboring state, something which Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad thinks gives Walker an edge in the Hawkeye State.

“I think he might do well. He is a Midwesterner. He is a problem solver. He is a grassroots, down to earth guy that I think the kind of people Iowans like,” Branstad told reporters prior to the dinner.

Previous speakers at the Robb Kelley Club Annual Spring Dinner have included Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich – both of whom ran for president in 2012.

But Walker downplayed the implications of his speech in Iowa – chalking it up to simply repaying a favor.

“Brandstad's a good friend of mine,” Walker told NBC’s Milwaukee affiliate WTMJ Thursday morning. “He did an event for me last year when I was running in the recall election. He, like other Governors across the country, have asked me to attend events and sparingly where I can occasionally I go to some and this is one of those."

Other potential 2016 presidential candidates have been sure to include Iowa on their list of places to stop. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., spoke at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Lincoln Dinner in Cedar Rapid’s earlier this month, and former Pennsylvania senator and 2012 Iowa Caucus winner Rick Santorum is scheduled to speak in August at the Lyon County GOP Dinner. 

This story was originally published on Thu May 23, 2013 11:05 PM EDT