National Journal: “In 2000, Ted Cruz was known only as a Texas-raised, Harvard-trained domestic policy adviser to the George W. Bush campaign. … Cruz helped craft the campaign’s immigration policy, which called for speeding up the application process, increasing the number of work visas, and allowing the relatives of permanent residents to visit the U.S. while their applicants were pending.”

More: “The route Cruz chose, from working on the reform-minded Bush campaign to voting against the bill Wednesday as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, confounds some of those who crossed paths with him. His role on the Bush campaign is a lesser-known part of the biography of a politician increasingly viewed as a potential presidential contender in 2016.”

Cruz yesterday said he didn’t “trust Republicans” or Democrats. He wants to hold the line on the debt ceiling.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus thinks there’s a double standard in the Obama administration leak investigations. “Where’s the investigation of the leaks surrounding the killing of Osama bin Laden?” he asks in an op-ed in Politico. He contends: “Releasing classified information is, of course, a serious matter. But if preventing leaks is the administration’s chief priority, why do they operate with two different sets of rules? Why do they act differently when leaks are convenient for them or perpetuate a desired narrative or burnish their public image?”

And yet, there was this… The Washington Post: “Federal investigators looking into disclosures of classified information about a cyberoperation that targeted Iran’s nuclear program have increased pressure on current and former senior government officials suspected of involvement, according to people familiar with the investigation.”

COLORADO: Tom Tancredo (R) is going to announce that he’s running for governor today on a conservative talk radio show. Why? The Denver Post: “Tancredo, a Republican, referred to Gov. John Hickenlooper’s decision on Wednesday to grant a temporary reprieve on the execution of death row inmate Nathan Dunlap. Dunlap was convicted of killing four people at an Aurora Chuck E. Cheese in 1993. Several Republicans castigated Hickenlooper on Wednesday for the move that halts Dunlap’s date with death that was scheduled for August.”

PENNSYLVANIA: EMILY’s List has endorsed Allyson Schwartz for governor of Pennsylvania.

Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.) is a member of a dying breed -- he's one of just nine Democrats to represent a congressional district that President Barack Obama lost in 2012.

In fact, Mitt Romney carried Barrow’s Georgia district with more than 55 percent of the vote last year, and John McCain did the same four years earlier.

But as Republicans seek to maintain control of the U.S. House in 2014, Republicans are hoping to make Barrow, who is running for a fifth term, and his fellow conservative-leaning Democrats completely extinct.

“The district is in the conservative to very conservative range, though on social issues it would definitely be considered very conservative,” said Lawton Sack, chairman of the Georgia Republican Party in that district. “We have very active Tea Party and Liberty groups throughout the district as well, so fiscal and constitutional issues are fairly important.”

Indeed, as NBC’s Jessica Taylor recently reported, the National Republican Congressional Committee has started a new initiative -- “Red Zone” -- that dedicates staff and resources to defeat Democrats like Barrow who represent conservative-leaning districts.

How have Barrow and these other Democrats -- like Utah’s Jim Matheson, Minnesota’s Collin Peterson and West Virginia’s Nick Rahall -- survived so far?

One explanation, Republican strategists say, is these politicians’ skills.  

“My guess is, by and large, the politicians who have been elected in these districts have understood the feel of them and been able to temper their ideology,” said Tom Rath, who has served as a senior advisor to several Republican presidential campaigns. “They get it. They do a lot of work in terms of communication and interaction.”

In particular, Sack of the Georgia Republican Party says Barrow has nailed his advertising, citing one TV ad Barrow aired in 2012 that boasted his opposition to gun control.

In the spot, Barrow displayed several guns from his family’s personal collection, saying, “I approve this message because these are my guns now, and ain’t nobody gonna take ‘em away.”

“I have had several conservative Republicans say to me that Barrow is not that bad and that he is really a conservative Democrat,” Sack added. “Time after time, I overheard people repeating things that Barrow said in his ads. They really seem to resonate with voters.”

Another advantage Democrats like Barrow have had: their GOP opposition.

In Georgia, Sack explains, Republicans had a field of candidates running to unseat Barrow, which took up time and resources that could have devoted to defeating the Democratic congressman. The last Republican standing after the 2012 GOP primary, Lee Anderson, had the fatal political flaw of being a poor public speaker, Sack says.

“He was wonderful one-on-one, but he could not speak publicly. He also refused to debate John Barrow, which was both a wise and poor decision,” he said. “Barrow would have beaten him solidly, but his refusal to debate painted Anderson as being scared of him.”

The Cook Political Report notes GOP recruitment problems in four of the other of these “Red Zone” districts.

Despite being unable to defeat Barrow and other Democrats from conservative-leaning districts, Republicans believe they have an important edge looking ahead to 2014 -- redistricting.

“They got redistricted, the effect of which was to make these districts even more competitive for Republicans to take a shot,” said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist. 

Annie Kelly, director of the NRCC’s “Red Zone” effort, believes that just because these Democrats survived in 2012, doesn’t mean they’ll win in future contests.

“Sometimes it takes a couple of cycles to get these entrenched incumbents to a point where they can be beaten,” she said.

Stu Rothenberg warns Republicans of overreach on the trio of controversies: “Let’s not forget: Republicans failed to capitalize on President Bill Clinton’s inappropriate conduct by over-playing their hand and pushing impeachment. Not only did they fail to drive him from office, the GOP ended up losing a handful of House seats in the 1998 midterms instead of adding seats as initially expected. Republicans allowed themselves to look as if they were primarily interested in scoring political points and overturning the results of the 1996 election, even if it meant paralyzing the government. That same danger exists once again for the GOP.”

Charlie Cook: “One wonders how long Republicans are going to bark up this tree, perhaps the wrong tree, while they ignore their own party’s problems, which were shown to be profound in the most recent elections. Clearly none of these recent issues has had a real impact on voters yet. Republicans seem to be betting everything on them, just as they did in 1998—about which even Newt Gingrich (who was House speaker that year) commented recently to NPR, ‘I think we overreached in ’98.’ Republicans and conservatives who are so consumed by these ‘scandals’ should ask themselves why, despite wall-to-wall media attention and the constant focus inside the Beltway—some are even talking about grounds for impeachment—Obama’s job-approval needle hasn’t moved. The CNN/ORC poll suggests that people are aware of and watching the news, but they aren’t reacting, at least not yet. Clearly Republicans hope the public will begin to respond. But at what point do they decide that maybe voters might be more interested in other issues or worries than about politicians on one side pointing fingers and throwing allegations at those on the other side? At what point might the GOP conclude that it is just digging the hole a little deeper?”

ARKANSAS: A state treasurer accused of taking money from a broker who managed state funds says she won’t resign, despite Gov. Mike Beebe’s (D) call for her to do so.

GEORGIA: Michelle Nunn is planning her announcement for the Senate within weeks, Roll Call reports.

MISSISSIPPI: Sen. Thad Cochran (R), 75, says he’s undecided about running for reelection in 2014.

NEW YORK: Maggie Haberman: “Bill and Hillary Clinton are making clear they are staying out of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, just as the race is about to be roiled by the candidacy of their close aide Huma Abedin’s husband, Anthony Weiner. The pair of stay-on-the-sidelines statements came as Weiner is set to declare his candidacy by video this week, likely on Tuesday or Wednesday. But the statements seem aimed at avoiding the appearance of taking sides in a race that includes the potential first female (and first openly gay) Democratic nominee, a potential second black New York mayor, and Hillary Clinton’s own former Senate campaign manager.”

SOUTH DAKOTA: Politico: Majority Leader Harry Reid and ex-Sen. Tom Daschle had a tense exchange over the South Dakota Senate race. Reid and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee “wanted to recruit former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) as their candidate to replace [Tim] Johnson in 2014. … But against Reid’s will, Daschle … was privately encouraging a longtime former aide and personal friend, Rick Weiland, to mount a bid of his own. Daschle’s endorsement of Weiland helped persuade Herseth Sandlin to pass on the Senate race, according to Democratic sources close to the issue. Reid and top Senate Democrats were stunned and outraged by Daschle’s move, a sentiment Reid communicated directly to the former senator, according to several people familiar with the incident.”

UTAH: Mia Love, who lost in 2012, will try again for a rematch in 2014 against Democrat Jim Matheson. But in a year without Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket, the most popular politician in Utah, Love would start out with an uphill climb.

VIRGINIA: National Journal: “Virginia Republicans Panicking Over Their Choice for Lieutenant Governor.” Write Beth Reinhard: E.W. “Jackson’s unexpected entrance into the Virginia statewide elections this year is one of the starkest examples of the challenges facing the GOP as it tries to broaden its appeal on the way to 2016.” More: “Forced into an awkward arranged marriage, Cuccinelli’s top advisers have urged Jackson to put aside his social crusades and reinforce their campaign’s message on job growth. But until the campaign is comfortable that Jackson is on board with the plan, Cuccinelli is expected to keep his distance from Jackson after completing a two-day statewide tour with him on Tuesday.”

Beth Reinhard: “Florida Sen. Marco Rubio hasn’t popped up in an early-primary state in six months, leaving potential Republican rivals like Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal to make the rounds while he carried the torch for his immigration reform plan. But while furiously working the talk show circuit to sell a bill viewed warily by many Republican voters, Rubio has been just as doggedly laying the groundwork for a successful presidential campaign in 2016.”

“Obamacare backers stymied by conservative legislatures in red states may have a new approach: letting the voters break logjams with state ballot initiatives in 2014,” Politico writes. “Frustrated by conservative opposition to extending Medicaid even in states where Republican governors have embraced it, the president’s allies are strategizing about asking voters to do what their elected leaders have not: accept billions of federal dollars to cover millions of poor people under Obamacare.”

Per a DCCC aide: “The DCCC outraised the NRCC again in April and will have $3.9 M cash advantage over the NRCC (cash-on-hand minus debt). The DCCC outraised the NRCC and will show less debt and more cash-on-hand than the NRCC. The DCCC outraised the NRCC ($5.4M to $5.1M), has less debt ($4.1M v. $6.4M) and more cash-on-hand ($10.4M to $8.7M).”

MASSACHUSETTS: Ed Markey’s (D) going negative, hitting Gabriel Gomez (R) on guns and invoking Newtown. Gomez went on air with his bio spot he ran in the primary. To match the financial disclosure by Gomez, Markey says he’ll release his tax returns “in the very near future.”

“After days of tough questioning, Republican Gabriel E. Gomez went after his Democratic rival for US Senate, saying US Representative Edward M. Markey has been absent from the campaign trail and ‘hiding’ from the controversies roiling the Democratic administration in Washington, D.C.,” the Boston Globe writes.

John McCain (R) will be in Massachusetts to help raise money for Gomez Monday.

NEW YORK: The New York Times: “The State Department, under Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton, created an arrangement for her longtime aide and confidante Huma Abedin to work for private clients as a consultant while serving as a top adviser in the department. Ms. Abedin did not disclose the arrangement — or how much income she earned — on her financial report. It requires officials to make public any significant sources of income. An adviser to Mrs. Clinton, Philippe Reines, said that Ms. Abedin was not obligated to do so. The disclosure of the agreement that Ms. Abedin made with the State Department comes as her husband, former Representative Anthony D. Weiner, a Democrat, prepares for a mayoral run in New York City. Politico reported the arrangement on Thursday afternoon.”

Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s approval rating is back on the rise, up to 64% in the latest Siena poll.

VIRGINIA: Ken Cuccinelli (R) is requesting 15 debates with Terry McAuliffe (D). Cuccinelli said in a statement: “Virginians face an important decision in November about the future of our Commonwealth and they deserve nothing less than frequent and robust debates. Voters deserve more than scripted sound bites to make an informed decision; they need real debates in every corner of the Commonwealth on topics that matter to their communities and their lives. I want to debate my opponent throughout Virginia and lay out my plan for growing the economy, creating jobs and easing burdens on middle class families."

And there’s this: “The newly minted Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia once compared Planned Parenthood to the Ku Klux Klan and bemoaned black voters’ ‘slavish devotion’ to the Democratic Party — past statements that are likely to inflame the culture-war politics of the state’s 2013 elections,” Politico writes. “E.W. Jackson, a black minister and activist nominated for lieutenant governor Saturday, posted a four-minute video on YouTube last fall exhorting African-Americans to vote Republican. In the video message, he accused the ‘civil rights establishment’ of selling out their Christian values in order to support Democratic policy positions on gay marriage and abortion.”

Said Jackson in the video: “The Democrat Party has created an unholy alliance between certain so-called civil rights leaders and Planned Parenthood, which has killed unborn black babies by the tens of millions. Planned Parenthood has been far more lethal to black lives than the KKK ever was,” Jackson says in the video.

And this, per Buzzfeed, via Political Wire: "Obama clearly has Muslim sensibilities. He sees the world and Israel from a Muslim perspective."

Politico says of what happened at the state party convention: “Virginia GOP launches tea party ticket.”

Not helping… The Washington Post: “Virginia Attorney Gen. Ken T. Cuccinelli (R) has asserted that the state’s freedom of information laws do not apply to the Office of the Attorney General, a break from past practice. While Cuccinelli’s office has continued to respond to requests for documents under the law — which says that except in certain instances, all records of public bodies should be accessible to the public — it has begun to insert new language into its responses citing a 2011 Virginia Supreme Court case to support the claim that the law does not apply to the office.”

GEORGIA: “Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel announced her campaign for Senate on Friday morning, as the state’s Republican convention was set to kick off in Athens,” Roll Call writes.

The Democratic abortion-rights group Emily’s List has announced it has put six additional women on its “list” of top-shelf candidates for the 2014 cycle: Ann Callis (IL-13), Katherine Clark (MA-05), Jessica Ehrlich (FL-13), Gwen Graham (FL-02), Eloise Reyes (CA-31), and Martha Robertson (NY-23).

VIRGINIA: Quinnipiac has Terry McAuliffe (D) up 43%-38% over Ken Cuccinelli (R). Cuccinelli gets a 47% job approval rating. 

Hillary Clinton beats Marco Rubio in the poll in a 2016 matchup 51%-38%. 

NEW JERSEY: Cory Booker won’t walk to the Democratic nomination for Senate. Rep. Frank Pallone is running and slammed Booker yesterday. He accused him of “shirking his responsibilities” as mayor of Newark “accusing the city of failing to fund its obligations to the Hyacinth AIDS Foundation, a non-profit based in New Brunswick that helps house and treat patients with HIV/AIDS. Booker administration officials said they have not received the May 10 letter which was obtained by The Star-Ledger, but said the funding process is following its normal course.”

NEW YORK: The New York Daily News reports that former Rep. Anthony Weiner “is preparing to jump into the race, possibly as soon as next week. …  At least two people close to Weiner have been contacting political operatives to gauge if they would go to battle for him.”

President George W. Bush spoke to Charlie Rose: “I have no desire to spend my post-presidency trying to enhance my standing. … I want to be productive. I want to make a difference in the world and I want to do so without undermining our current president and/or engaging in political debate. Cause if I were out trying to defend myself I’d be right back in the swamp, and I don’t want to be in the swamp.”

Charlie Cook: The political “significance” of the IRS and Benghazi scandals “is more in the eye of the beholder. Liberals and Democrats tend to de-emphasize both affairs, while many conservatives and Republicans think that each rises to the level of impeachment. It will take time to know which end of this ridiculously broad spectrum of assessments proves to be more accurate.”

How to measure, per Cook: “The most objective way to ascertain whether either or both of these stories have “legs” and are beginning to get traction with the public is to watch every Monday afternoon for the release of the Gallup approval rating for the previous week, ending the night before. Although you can look at the Gallup three-day moving average, those have a smaller sample size than the full week of interviewing and tend to be somewhat volatile. As long as Obama’s job approval remains in that 47-to-51-percent range, particularly between 48 and 50 percent, it’s safe to say that neither story is hurting him significantly, at least with the public. If you are going to look at other polls, take a gander at that poll’s “trading range” for Obama over March and April, and see whether it drops below that range.”

Crossroads has been going after Hillary Clinton and the Obama administration on Benghazi. Now, Bridge Project, the 501(c)4 of American Bridge,  is going after Karl Rove with this video called, "Karl Rove's Decade of Deception.” It hits on the selling the war in Iraq, Valerie Plame, and more.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune: “Amid roaring chants from supporters and tears from opponents, the state Senate took a historic, final step Monday to legalize same-sex marriage in Minnesota. The 37-30 vote came after a failed, last-ditch attempt by opponents to scuttle the measure.”

More: “Minnesota becomes the first Midwestern state to legalize same-sex marriage by legislative vote [and the 12^th state overall], and the latest victory for those working to extend marriage rights to gay and lesbian couples across the nation. Monday’s action technically repeals a state statute that had prohibited such unions. Gov. Mark Dayton will sign the bill at 5 p.m. Tuesday, on the Capitol steps, kicking off a parade that will take supporters to a massive downtown St. Paul celebration. The law will take effect Aug. 1.”

Roger Simon said John McCain’s use of “emotional” to describe Hillary Clinton’s congressional testimony was “sexist.”

Political Wire: “Pablo Pantoja, who was most recently the State Director of Florida Hispanic Outreach for the Republican National Committee, changed his voter registration to become a Democrat, according to Florida Nation.” Pantoja wrote: "It doesn't take much to see the culture of intolerance surrounding the Republican Party today. I have wondered before about the seemingly harsh undertones about immigrants and others. Look no further; a well-known organization recently confirms the intolerance of that which seems different or strange to them.”

FLORIDA: Could Rick Scott actually pick ex-Rep. Allen West as his lieutenant governor?

MASSACHUSETTS: John McCain’s raising money in Boston for Gabriel Gomez (R) May 20.

The Boston Globe: “First deadline passes with 24 in Boston mayoral field.”

NEW YORK: Maggie Haberman reports that Anthony Weiner is hiring staff for a mayoral run.

President Barack Obama repeatedly said during last year's presidential campaign that a partisan "fever" in Washington would break after the 2012 election, but on Monday, he acknowledge it hadn't broken yet.

Almost four months into his second term, the president told Democratic donors at a fundraiser in New York City that the nation's capital is still ensconsed by "hyper-partisanship."

"My thinking was when we beat them in 2012 that might break the fever, and it’s not quite broken yet," Obama said, according to pool reports of his remarks. "But I am persistent. And I am staying at it."

Obama had outlined an agenda heading into his second term headlined by immigration reform, gun control and reaching a wide-reaching fiscal deal with Republicans. So far, immigration reform only seems realistically attainable; a scaled-back version of Obama's gun control proposals was blocked in the Senate. A "grand bargain" on taxes and spending appears out of reach, as well.

Obama told his supporters that he still intended to seek a broad agenda, rather than succumb to the ennui of a lame-duck presidency. That included an allusion to forcing Republicans to pay a price at the polls in 2014 should they continue to block his agenda.

"My intentions over the next 3 ½ years are to govern," he said. "If there are folks who are more interested in winning elections than they are thinking about the next generation then I want to make sure there are consequences to that."

Top recruiters at both the Democratic and Republican congressional campaign committees are making no secret about it: They’re trying to recruit more women to run for House seats in the 2014 midterms.

“We are looking for women in those districts where we believe that we have an opportunity -- either through a retirement, an open seat, or even for a challenge that is a good challenge for us,” said Rep. Diane Black (R-Tenn.), one of the recruiters this cycle for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “It really does bring a very complete picture to discussions on the issues.”

Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.), the recruitment chair for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, says that she is emphasizing to ask women to run, especially those who haven’t before. “It may be true that men stand up and say ‘I want to run.’ Women have to come in a different way,” she said.

Why are women such a focus?

Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), the co-chair this cycle of Women LEAD, an arm of the DCCC that’s dedicated to electing more women to the House, explains that women have extra appeal in a political environment where Congress is gridlocked and unpopular.

“I think the public -- they’re looking for problem-solvers and people who can be more conciliatory or compromising … also trustworthy,” said Frankel. “I think that’s why women are more prime candidates. Maybe it’s also because [voters] are not blaming us for how paralyzed the Congress is today.”

Reps. Edwards and Black elaborated on their parties’ efforts to recruit more women in phone interviews. Here is some of what they had to say…

Q: Is the DCCC doing anything specific to recruit women from outside of politics, like you mentioned?

Edwards: We’re looking at the non-profit sector, in the business sector and other areas of the public sector – people who are firefighters, who are teachers. They bring a strong commitment to public service that really lends itself to the kind of responsibilities, the kind of problem-solving that we face in the Congress…. We can’t just continue to look at the traditional lawyers and elected officials as our pipeline for leadership in the 21st century.

Q: A new report by American University says that women are less likely to see themselves as qualified to run for office. What, if anything, are you doing at the DCCC to overcome that?

Edwards: Part of that is because we’ve always thought about people in elected office coming from a particular background, and I think that the more that we broaden that, the more that we can encourage younger women to think about their political ambitions early on -- because they see people who come from a range of different experiences in Congress.

Q: Is there anything different being done this cycle in terms of recruiting more women? Is anything new about female congresswomen mentoring recruits?

Black: I think what’s new about that is that we are utilizing the women that are currently serving. They’re being mentors for these candidates. I don’t know that we’ve been as strong at doing that before. It really is more difficult for a woman to make that decision, because of all of the responsibilities they have at home that they feel so strongly that is their role and their responsibility.

Q: Why do you think that the Republican Party traditionally has struggled to expand its ranks of female lawmakers?

Black: I think part of that is effort. I think it was done in the last election and it is even intensifying in this election. I think we have conservative women who feel a real commitment to their family – not to say that women who serve as Democrats don’t have that – but what I hear is a real struggle, you know, ‘My family needs me. I need to be there.’ I hear that consistently from women. I don’t know that we’ve done a good job in helping them understand that you can do both things and you can do them well.”

Reuters: “The Minnesota Senate is expected to give final approval on Monday to a bill that would make the state the 12th in the United States to allow same-sex couples to marry and only the second in the Midwest. Leaders in the Senate, where Democrats hold a 39-28 majority, have said they believe they have the support to approve a bill legalizing gay marriage. They set a vote for Monday on the measure that members of the state House approved last week." 

The state Senate takes it up at noon Monday.

Dan Balz: “Two realities shape the debate over immigration reform: No bill is likely to pass without the expressed support of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), but even Rubio’s endorsement may not be enough to assure passage. For Rubio, the political stakes of both sides of the equation are huge.”

LOS ANGELES: “As Eric Garcetti and Wendy Greuel crisscrossed Los Angeles in search of support Saturday, many voters wrestled to decide between the two Democrats in this non-partisan race for mayor,” Southern California Public Radioreports, adding, “A poll by the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State LA found 9 percent of likely voters undecided on the mayor’s race. Greuel captured 46 percent support and Garcetti garnered 45 percent – a virtual tie.”

The idea of electing the city’s first woman mayor is intriguing to many residents as well. “ ‘Of course, as a woman, I have to say, a lot of times women get the job done,’ said resident Mary Lee. … The idea of electing the city’s first woman mayor weighs on the mind of Isaac Robinson too. ‘Sometimes, I just feel that we need a woman to take over the city,’ Robinson said. After this year’s city elections, the 15-member city council may have just one-woman member. ‘Our government is lacking in balance,’ he said. ‘It seems undemocratic to me.’ But Robinson, 75, who restores fine art, appreciates Garcetti’s eloquence.”

Los Angelenos will pick its mayor May 21^st.

MASSACHUSETTS: “Environmental activists are vowing to do everything they can to help Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Edward Markey in his special election battle with Republican challenger Gabriel Gomez,” AP writes. “During the Democratic primary, environmental groups spent nearly $1.8 million in outside money to help Markey defeat Stephen Lynch. Markey and Lynch had agreed to the so-called People’s Pledge, which discouraged outside groups from launching television, radio or Internet campaign ads. That forced the groups to spend most of their money on organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts. But Gomez has rejected the pledge, allowing environmental and other groups on both sides to pour millions into ads if they want. For many environmental advocates, the most pressing issue is the fate of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, which Markey opposes but Gomez supports.”

NEW HAMPSHIRE: So much for a Scott Brown New Hampshire comeback. He trails incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in a hypothetical matchup 44%-30%, per aDartmouth poll. Shaheen leads all comers. 

Since the gun debate, Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s negative rating has gone up 7 points – going from 36%/24% to 37%/31%.

In 2016 politics, Hillary Clinton edges out New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 37%-32%, and beats Florida Sen. Marco Rubio by 11 points, 44%-33%. (H/T: Political Wire.)

NEW JERSEY: Maggie Haberman: “Sky-high approval ratings be damned — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is going on air next week with an ad that paints his Democratic rival Barbara Buono as a tax-hiker who is yoked to unpopular former governor Jon Corzine …  The spot, which begins running Monday, is part of an $800,000 ad buy over the course of roughly a week, a source tracking the air wars in New Jersey” said.

NEW YORK: According to Page Six, Anthony Weiner shouldn’t expect the Clintons’help or support.

Reid Wilson: “The electorate that turned out in November to give President Obama a second term is nearly as diverse as the U.S. population at large, according to new data released by the Census Bureau this week. But the nation's fastest-growing minority group isn't experiencing the kind of explosive growth of political power that other ethnic groups have felt. And that means Democrats could be leaving millions of votes on the table. Less than half of all eligible Hispanics turned out to vote in 2012, according to the data. Hispanic voters in swing states were more likely to show up at the polls, but the slow pace of growth as a portion of the overall electorate shows Hispanics have yet to flex their political muscle.”

As First Read has pointed out, Hispanics made up 10% of the electorate but are 17% of the overall population. 

Politico on Rand Paul in Iowa today: “For all Paul’s success as a media brand and a mobilizer of the conservative grassroots, the Kentucky senator has done relatively little since 2010 to assemble a political machine around his own personality. For now, the Rand Paul project is a high-wire act that works largely without a net.”

The Hill: “Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) blasted progressive principles as ‘arrogant and condescending’ Wednesday night in a speech outlining his vision on how to sell modern-day conservatism to voters.”

NEW JERSEY: In an interview to air tonight on Rock Center, NBC’s Brian Williams interviews Chris Christie who calls himself a “damn good Republican.” But he said he would put his state and country before his party.

Said Christie: I’ll worry about the presidency if and when I ever decide to run for it. But if you’re saying to me, ‘How do I feel as a Republican?’ I’m a damn good Republican and a good conservative Republican who believes in the things that I believe in. … But that does not mean that I would ever put party before my state or party before my country.”

The Star Ledger: “Gov. Chris Christie today vetoed a bill that would allow early voting at polling places, prompting Democrats to brand it a politically motivated effort to suppress the vote months after Hurricane Sandy exposed vulnerabilities in the state elections system.” 

Said Christie: "I support responsible and cost-efficient election reform that increases voter participation because democracy works best when the most people vote. But this bill risks the integrity and orderly administration of our elections by introducing a new voting method and process."

Said State Sen. Nia Gill (D), sponsor of the bill: "The governor now joins other Republican governors who have sought to stifle the vote and limit access to the polls. Once again he is catering to his national base at the expense of New Jersey residents."

VIRGINIA: Beth Reinhard writes on how Terry McAuliffe (D) is having a hard time defining himself in the governor’s race. She notes that not being Ken Cuccinelli (R) may not be enough for McAuliffe to win.

Charlie Cook says forget Mark Sanford, forget Chris Christie and New Jersey, the race to likely have the most political significance is the Virginia governor’s race: “So Virginia has a race that might be illuminating. It is a swing state where moderate and independent voters will have to choose sides; the national political environment may well be a factor in driving them one way or the other. Indeed, the swoon of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds four years ago coincided remarkably closely with the drop in President Obama’s numbers, both in the state and nationally. The race hinted at what was to come the next year when Republicans scored near-biblical gains in the House and a six-seat gain in the Senate. So although the South Carolina special election had some entertainment value, if you want to look for a potential clue about 2014, you’ll have better luck watching Virginia.”