Oklahoma disaster puts current Washington politics into perspective… Obama delivers statement on tragedy at 10:00 am ET… That said, there will be an inevitable fight over disaster relief… Three polls, three matters of consensus on the three controversies hitting the Obama administration… 1) The public believes there was wrongdoing; 2) that hasn’t affected Obama’s political standing; and 3) there’s a huge partisan divide… Senate Finance Committee holds IRS hearing at 10:00 am ET… Conservatives come out against immigration reform… And two stories to watch in tonight’s LA mayoral run-off.

Gene Blevins / Reuters

People walk near destroyed buildings and vehicles after a tornado struck Moore, Okla., near Oklahoma City, May 20, 2013.

*** Putting things into perspective: The massive and powerful tornado that ripped through Moore, OK on Monday afternoon puts so much of Washington’s focus over the past two weeks -- on the IRS, Benghazi, and the leak investigations -- into perspective. Oklahoma officials, for now, have put the death toll at 51 individuals (at least 20 of whom are children). “To me, this is bigger than anything I’ve ever seen,” Gov. Mary Fallin (R) said on “TODAY” this morning, and she added that includes past tornados and the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing. (This is an area of the country that has seen its share of destruction over the last 20 years.) President Obama, who already signed a disaster declaration for Oklahoma, delivers a statement around 10:00 am ET on the devastation, per NBC’s Kristen Welker. And the politics of disaster relief and federal assistance has already made an appearance. Yes, there are still legitimate questions to ask regarding the three controversies facing the Obama administration. And, yes, those stories aren’t going away (in fact, the Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing at 10:00 am ET on the IRS’s targeting of conservative-sounding organizations filing for tax-exempt status). But right now, they take a pause.

*** The inevitable battle over disaster relief: Given the previous fight over federal-relief funding after Hurricane Sandy, it was inevitable that the politicization of this Oklahoma disaster would take place. And it has already begun. CQ Roll Call: “The tornado damage near Oklahoma City is still being assessed and the death toll is expected to rise, but already Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., says he will insist that any federal disaster aid be paid for with cuts elsewhere. CQ Roll Call reporter Jennifer Scholtes wrote for CQ.com Monday evening that Coburn said he would ‘absolutely’ demand offsets for any federal aid that Congress provides.” Coburn’s position is consistent with his vote on Sandy relief -- he voted no on federal funding late last year, as did Oklahoma’s other senator, James Inhofe. And three of the state’s five congressmen voted no, too (Bridenstine, Mullin, Lankford), while the other two voted for the relief (Cole, Lucas). Keep an eye on Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) in this. He has been a bridge between the establishment and conservatives on issues like Sandy relief and the fiscal cliff. He’s got a lot of credibility with a bipartisan swath of members, and he may end up having to do a lot of political legwork to de-politicize this issue.

*** Three polls, three matters of consensus: Turning to the controversies facing the Obama administration, we now have the results from three different polls (CNN, Pew, WaPo/ABC) released in the last 36 hours. And they provide a consensus on three different stories. One, the public believes there was wrongdoing by the IRS and in the aftermath of the Benghazi attack. Two, this belief of wrongdoing hasn’t affected President Obama’s standing (WaPo/ABC has his approval rating at 51%; CNN has it as 53%). A big reason why is the economy: “For the first time since the 100-day mark of Obama’s first term, most say they are optimistic about the direction of the economy. More than half, 56 percent, say the economy is on the mend, the most to say so in polls since 2009,” the Washington Post writes. And three, there is a HUGE partisan divide when it comes to these controversies. According to the Pew poll, 37% of Republicans are following the IRS story very closely (compared with 21% of Democrats and 25% of indies), while 34% of Republicans are following the Benghazi investigation closely (versus 18% of Democrats and 26% of indies). As Pew adds, this level of interest and partisan divide is consistent with past controversies impacting the George W. Bush and Clinton administration; the folks out of power who didn’t like the president in office were always more interested in these controversies. The one exception: The Lewinsky sex scandal, which had more people paying closer attention and almost no partisan divide.

*** Senate Finance Committee holds IRS hearing: As mentioned above, the Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the IRS story at 10:00 am, and the witnesses are outgoing IRS Acting Commissioner Steven Miller, former Commissioner Douglas Shulman, and the inspector general. Given the tragedy in Oklahoma -- and given the president’s remarks around the same time -- this hearing won’t receive the attention it might have. But the Obama White House had it rough yesterday when it dribbled out new information about who knew of the inspector general’s report and when they knew about it. Make no mistake: It’s over something that’s relatively small, when (and who inside) the White House was given a heads up about the IG audit -- after all, there was little the White House could do with the report -- but it made the White House seem not very forthcoming with the press. The White House is acting as if it has a bunker mentality; it’s only dribbling out information if extracted with a specific question. And it’s giving off an impression staffers have more to hide.

*** Bunker mentality and not telling the president: Then there’s the issue that many members of the senior team in the White House knew about the report without telling the president. While it’s understandable they want the president to have plausible deniability about what he knows in the case of an IG report, it feeds the perception that the president is not very hands-on right now. Yes, it’s damned if they do, damned if they don’t -- which is probably why it’s imperative they begin to own these controversies on their terms.

*** Conservatives come out against immigration reform: Per NBC’s Carrie Dann, “Several prominent conservative media figures are backing a new effort by groups who oppose bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform, signaling growing willingness from conservative outlets to marshal their audiences against the bill. Signatories on a new open letter to Congress titled ‘The Wrong Way to Reform Immigration” include RedState editor Erick Erickson, radio hosts Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin, and columnist Michelle Malkin. ‘No matter how well intentioned, the Schumer-Rubio bill suffers from fundamental design flaws that make it unsalvageable,’ the letter states. ‘Many of us support various parts of the legislation, but the overall package is so unsatisfactory that the Senate would do better to start over from scratch.’”

*** Two stories to watch in today’s LA mayoral run-off: And there are two stories to watch in today’s run-off contest for LA mayor between City Controller Wendy Greuel (D) and City Councilman Eric Garcetti (D). The first is that Greuel COULD become the city’s first female mayor, although polls (here and here) have shown that Garcetti has a slight lead. The second story is the expected low turnout. As Jessica Taylor writes, "[T]he runoff race between two Democratic candidates isn’t drawing much interest as turnout could reach a record low despite the more than $33 million that’s been spent on the nearly two year-long contest to succeed outgoing Mayor Anthony Villagarosa." In fact, just 21% turned out in the first round of voting. Now this could just be LA being LA, but the low turnout might be something to keep an eye on. Polls close at 11:00 pm ET.

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Stu Rothenberg warns Republicans of overreach on the trio of controversies: “Let’s not forget: Republicans failed to capitalize on President Bill Clinton’s inappropriate conduct by over-playing their hand and pushing impeachment. Not only did they fail to drive him from office, the GOP ended up losing a handful of House seats in the 1998 midterms instead of adding seats as initially expected. Republicans allowed themselves to look as if they were primarily interested in scoring political points and overturning the results of the 1996 election, even if it meant paralyzing the government. That same danger exists once again for the GOP.”

Charlie Cook: “One wonders how long Republicans are going to bark up this tree, perhaps the wrong tree, while they ignore their own party’s problems, which were shown to be profound in the most recent elections. Clearly none of these recent issues has had a real impact on voters yet. Republicans seem to be betting everything on them, just as they did in 1998—about which even Newt Gingrich (who was House speaker that year) commented recently to NPR, ‘I think we overreached in ’98.’ Republicans and conservatives who are so consumed by these ‘scandals’ should ask themselves why, despite wall-to-wall media attention and the constant focus inside the Beltway—some are even talking about grounds for impeachment—Obama’s job-approval needle hasn’t moved. The CNN/ORC poll suggests that people are aware of and watching the news, but they aren’t reacting, at least not yet. Clearly Republicans hope the public will begin to respond. But at what point do they decide that maybe voters might be more interested in other issues or worries than about politicians on one side pointing fingers and throwing allegations at those on the other side? At what point might the GOP conclude that it is just digging the hole a little deeper?”

ARKANSAS: A state treasurer accused of taking money from a broker who managed state funds says she won’t resign, despite Gov. Mike Beebe’s (D) call for her to do so.

GEORGIA: Michelle Nunn is planning her announcement for the Senate within weeks, Roll Call reports.

MISSISSIPPI: Sen. Thad Cochran (R), 75, says he’s undecided about running for reelection in 2014.

NEW YORK: Maggie Haberman: “Bill and Hillary Clinton are making clear they are staying out of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, just as the race is about to be roiled by the candidacy of their close aide Huma Abedin’s husband, Anthony Weiner. The pair of stay-on-the-sidelines statements came as Weiner is set to declare his candidacy by video this week, likely on Tuesday or Wednesday. But the statements seem aimed at avoiding the appearance of taking sides in a race that includes the potential first female (and first openly gay) Democratic nominee, a potential second black New York mayor, and Hillary Clinton’s own former Senate campaign manager.”

SOUTH DAKOTA: Politico: Majority Leader Harry Reid and ex-Sen. Tom Daschle had a tense exchange over the South Dakota Senate race. Reid and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee “wanted to recruit former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) as their candidate to replace [Tim] Johnson in 2014. … But against Reid’s will, Daschle … was privately encouraging a longtime former aide and personal friend, Rick Weiland, to mount a bid of his own. Daschle’s endorsement of Weiland helped persuade Herseth Sandlin to pass on the Senate race, according to Democratic sources close to the issue. Reid and top Senate Democrats were stunned and outraged by Daschle’s move, a sentiment Reid communicated directly to the former senator, according to several people familiar with the incident.”

UTAH: Mia Love, who lost in 2012, will try again for a rematch in 2014 against Democrat Jim Matheson. But in a year without Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket, the most popular politician in Utah, Love would start out with an uphill climb.

VIRGINIA: National Journal: “Virginia Republicans Panicking Over Their Choice for Lieutenant Governor.” Write Beth Reinhard: E.W. “Jackson’s unexpected entrance into the Virginia statewide elections this year is one of the starkest examples of the challenges facing the GOP as it tries to broaden its appeal on the way to 2016.” More: “Forced into an awkward arranged marriage, Cuccinelli’s top advisers have urged Jackson to put aside his social crusades and reinforce their campaign’s message on job growth. But until the campaign is comfortable that Jackson is on board with the plan, Cuccinelli is expected to keep his distance from Jackson after completing a two-day statewide tour with him on Tuesday.”

What’s worse for the Obama White House: For the controversies to be full-scale scandals that go all the way to the top?... Or for them to be the result of bureaucratic incompetence?... The latest IRS developments… On Obama’s Morehouse speech… Two unions now oppose the Senate immigration bill… Getting the Hillary ’08 band back together -- or not… And Virginia, meet E.W. Jackson.

Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

President Barack Obama crosses the South Lawn as he returns from travel to Atlanta via Marine One, at the White House, May 19, 2013.

*** Scandal or bureaucratic incompetency? Here’s a question for the Obama White House to ponder: What’s worse, for all the controversies -- especially the IRS targeting conservative-sounding groups -- to be a full-fledged scandal that goes all the way to the top? Or for them to be the result of bureaucratic incompetence? You could make an argument that the latter outcome could be just as damaging to the president, because it raises doubts about his competency and the public’s trust in government. As Time’s Joe Klein wrote last week, “It can, and will, be argued that the president is to blame for lousy management… Some in the Administration are saying that civil-service rules prevent Obama from firing the midlevel bozos. But what about the higher-ups? Why haven't the Democrats proposed a full-scale review of civil-service laws…? Such laws certainly hinder effective governance, which the Democrats are supposedly selling.” Of course, there are plenty of examples where you can argue that government has worked. Think of the rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy. Or the response to the Boston bombings. But government working in a crisis vs. government working every day are two different issues. And it’s never a good story when a White House has to respond to examples when the government ISN’T working for the American people.

*** Competency questions pile up: After all, the Democrats are the party of government, and Obama got elected, in part, by pushing competency (at least compared with the previous administration). The White House should hope its problems are political in nature, because that’s something they’ve proven adept at dealing with. But the competency questions for this administration are piling up: The Veteran’s Administration is a mess; their explanation on Benghazi is about the lack of communication and security procedures; and the IRS explanation is overworked and mistake-prone bureaucrats in Cincinnati. Right now, the White House is benefitting from those congressional Republicans who are desperately searching for “scandal.” What the White House should fear more is if Republicans use their “government is too big” argument to go to core of competency. 

*** The latest IRS developments: It’s worth noting that today’s “news” about the White House counsel being informed of the IRS audit was first confirmed at a Jay Carney press briefing last week. A senior administration also confirms to NBC News that White House Counsel Kathy Ruemmler did NOT inform the president. What’s not clear is if she gave a heads up to the rest of the senior staff. And what’s also not clear is how much detail Ruemmler was offered about the audit itself. Meanwhile, the Sunday New York Times offered a lengthy piece tracing what went wrong in that Cincinnati IRS office. “While there are still many gaps in the story of how the I.R.S. scandal happened, interviews with current and former employees and with lawyers who dealt with them, along with a review of I.R.S. documents, paint a more muddled picture of an understaffed Cincinnati outpost that was alienated from the broader I.R.S. culture and given little direction. Overseen by a revolving cast of midlevel managers, stalled by miscommunication with I.R.S. lawyers and executives in Washington and confused about the rules they were enforcing, the Cincinnati specialists flagged virtually every application with Tea Party in its name. But their review went beyond conservative groups: more than 400 organizations came under scrutiny, including at least two dozen liberal-leaning ones and some that were seemingly apolitical.”

*** Obama’s Morehouse speech: Also on Sunday, President Obama delivered a very personal commencement address at Morehouse College in Atlanta, GA. “Keep setting an example for what it means to be a man,” he told the graduates at the historically black college. “Be the best husband to your wife, or you’re your boyfriend, or your partner. Be the best father you can be to your children. Because nothing is more important.” The president added, “I was raised by a heroic single mom, wonderful grandparents -- made incredible sacrifices for me… But I sure wish I had had a father who was not only present, but involved. Didn’t know my dad. And so my whole life, I’ve tried to be for Michelle and my girls what my father was not for my mother and me. I want to break that cycle where a father is not at home, where a father is not helping to raise that son or daughter. “I want to be a better father, a better husband, a better man.” And pair Obama’s commencement address with the one his wife delivered on Friday at another historically black college (Bowie State): “Instead of dreaming of being a teacher or a lawyer or a business leader, they’re fantasizing about being a baller or a rapper… Please reject the slander that says a black child with a book is trying to act white.”

*** Two unions now oppose Senate immigration legislation: On the topic of immigration… The National Citizenship and Immigration Services Council, a union representing 12,000 U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services officers, “will publicly oppose the Senate Gang of Eight immigration plan Monday, giving critics of the overhaul effort additional political ammunition as they work to defeat legislation working its way through the Senate Judiciary Committee,” NBC’s Carrie Dann reports. The reason for the opposition: The union believes the legislation “would fail to address an ‘insurmountable bureaucracy’ at the federal agency overseeing immigration documents.” Dann adds that this union joins the National Immigration and Customs Enforcement Council in its opposition to the Gang of Eight measure.

*** Getting the band back together -- or not: It should be hardly surprising that folks like Howard Wolfson, Patti Solis Doyle, and Mark Penn would NOT work on a Hillary Clinton presidential campaign if she decides to run in 2016, as the Washington Post reports. After all, none of these people went on to join her at the State Department like other trusted Hillary Inc. aides did. What’s more, Solis Doyle was sacked as campaign manager after Clinton lost Iowa. If Clinton runs, it would likely be a combination of trusted former aides, as well as some new blood. That’s often true for plenty of repeat presidential candidates. Yet there’s another way to look at this Washington Post piece: It’s a message to many outside of Hillary World, especially those who were critical of the ’08 Hillary campaign, that the whole band won’t be getting back together if she runs in ’16. And those folks might see this as a positive development.

*** Meet E.W. Jackson: Virginia Republicans this year are conducting an intriguing experiment in Virginia, a state Obama has twice carried in presidential contests, that’s elected Democrats to U.S. Senate seats the last three times senate elections have been held: Can it win in 2013 with a ticket of candidates who are best known for being VERY conservative and VERY outspoken on social issues? Well, here is E.W. Jackson, a black minister who was nominated to be the GOP’s Lt. Gov. nominee joining Ken Cuccinelli at the top of the ticket. “The newly minted Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia once compared Planned Parenthood to the Ku Klux Klan and bemoaned black voters’ ‘slavish devotion’ to the Democratic Party — past statements that are likely to inflame the culture-war politics of the state’s 2013 elections,” Politico writes. Indeed, Jackson makes Cuccinelli look moderate on social issues. And this is what happens when you nominate candidates via a convention rather than a primary. Does anyone think that Jackson would have won the GOP’s Lt. Gov. primary? For what it’s worth, the nomination of Cuccinelli as attorney general four years ago was seen by some Republicans as a problem (and a potential opportunity for the Democrats). As it turned out, the top of the ticket could shield itself at the time. Of course, “LG” is more of a “running mate” feel and will be more difficult for Cuccinelli to shield himself from Jackson.

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Beth Reinhard: “Florida Sen. Marco Rubio hasn’t popped up in an early-primary state in six months, leaving potential Republican rivals like Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal to make the rounds while he carried the torch for his immigration reform plan. But while furiously working the talk show circuit to sell a bill viewed warily by many Republican voters, Rubio has been just as doggedly laying the groundwork for a successful presidential campaign in 2016.”

“Obamacare backers stymied by conservative legislatures in red states may have a new approach: letting the voters break logjams with state ballot initiatives in 2014,” Politico writes. “Frustrated by conservative opposition to extending Medicaid even in states where Republican governors have embraced it, the president’s allies are strategizing about asking voters to do what their elected leaders have not: accept billions of federal dollars to cover millions of poor people under Obamacare.”

Per a DCCC aide: “The DCCC outraised the NRCC again in April and will have $3.9 M cash advantage over the NRCC (cash-on-hand minus debt). The DCCC outraised the NRCC and will show less debt and more cash-on-hand than the NRCC. The DCCC outraised the NRCC ($5.4M to $5.1M), has less debt ($4.1M v. $6.4M) and more cash-on-hand ($10.4M to $8.7M).”

MASSACHUSETTS: Ed Markey’s (D) going negative, hitting Gabriel Gomez (R) on guns and invoking Newtown. Gomez went on air with his bio spot he ran in the primary. To match the financial disclosure by Gomez, Markey says he’ll release his tax returns “in the very near future.”

“After days of tough questioning, Republican Gabriel E. Gomez went after his Democratic rival for US Senate, saying US Representative Edward M. Markey has been absent from the campaign trail and ‘hiding’ from the controversies roiling the Democratic administration in Washington, D.C.,” the Boston Globe writes.

John McCain (R) will be in Massachusetts to help raise money for Gomez Monday.

NEW YORK: The New York Times: “The State Department, under Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton, created an arrangement for her longtime aide and confidante Huma Abedin to work for private clients as a consultant while serving as a top adviser in the department. Ms. Abedin did not disclose the arrangement — or how much income she earned — on her financial report. It requires officials to make public any significant sources of income. An adviser to Mrs. Clinton, Philippe Reines, said that Ms. Abedin was not obligated to do so. The disclosure of the agreement that Ms. Abedin made with the State Department comes as her husband, former Representative Anthony D. Weiner, a Democrat, prepares for a mayoral run in New York City. Politico reported the arrangement on Thursday afternoon.”

Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s approval rating is back on the rise, up to 64% in the latest Siena poll.

VIRGINIA: Ken Cuccinelli (R) is requesting 15 debates with Terry McAuliffe (D). Cuccinelli said in a statement: “Virginians face an important decision in November about the future of our Commonwealth and they deserve nothing less than frequent and robust debates. Voters deserve more than scripted sound bites to make an informed decision; they need real debates in every corner of the Commonwealth on topics that matter to their communities and their lives. I want to debate my opponent throughout Virginia and lay out my plan for growing the economy, creating jobs and easing burdens on middle class families."

And there’s this: “The newly minted Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia once compared Planned Parenthood to the Ku Klux Klan and bemoaned black voters’ ‘slavish devotion’ to the Democratic Party — past statements that are likely to inflame the culture-war politics of the state’s 2013 elections,” Politico writes. “E.W. Jackson, a black minister and activist nominated for lieutenant governor Saturday, posted a four-minute video on YouTube last fall exhorting African-Americans to vote Republican. In the video message, he accused the ‘civil rights establishment’ of selling out their Christian values in order to support Democratic policy positions on gay marriage and abortion.”

Said Jackson in the video: “The Democrat Party has created an unholy alliance between certain so-called civil rights leaders and Planned Parenthood, which has killed unborn black babies by the tens of millions. Planned Parenthood has been far more lethal to black lives than the KKK ever was,” Jackson says in the video.

And this, per Buzzfeed, via Political Wire: "Obama clearly has Muslim sensibilities. He sees the world and Israel from a Muslim perspective."

Politico says of what happened at the state party convention: “Virginia GOP launches tea party ticket.”

Not helping… The Washington Post: “Virginia Attorney Gen. Ken T. Cuccinelli (R) has asserted that the state’s freedom of information laws do not apply to the Office of the Attorney General, a break from past practice. While Cuccinelli’s office has continued to respond to requests for documents under the law — which says that except in certain instances, all records of public bodies should be accessible to the public — it has begun to insert new language into its responses citing a 2011 Virginia Supreme Court case to support the claim that the law does not apply to the office.”

Obama White House moves to stop the bleeding… Success on whether the controversies stay a one-week story rather than a months-long one depends on the follow-through, especially regarding the IRS controversy… But it also depends on whether the GOP overplays it hand… Classic Obama: White House takes days to find the right response… Don’t lose sight on Syria… House votes to repeal Obamacare… Sanford’s first day back… And new Quinnipiac poll: McAuliffe up slightly in Virginia.

*** Trying to stop the bleeding: After his most difficult stretch of days since winning re-election, President Obama on Wednesday tried to stop the bleeding with two different moves just more than an hour apart -- all in an effort to keep a bad week from turning into a bad month and perhaps ending any chances of a serious legislative agenda. First, at 5:00 pm ET, his White House released 100 pages of emails and documents related to the crafting of the talking points to describe the Sept. 11, 2012 attack in Benghazi. The emails revealed more agency politics (between CIA and the State Department) than electoral politics (as Republicans had accused). Second, a little after 6:00 pm ET, Obama delivered a statement announcing that Treasury Secretary Jack Lew had accepted the resignation of the acting IRS commissioner in the wake of the controversy that the tax agency had targeted conservative-sounding groups for additional scrutiny in their application for tax-exempt status. The president also announced that new safeguards would be put in place to prevent it from happening again, and he pledged to work with Congress to get it fixed. And today at noon ET, he holds a news conference -- with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan -- where he’ll likely answer reporters’ questions about both actions. There was also an effort to stop the bleeding on a third front: The White House said it supports the re-introduction of a media-shield bill after the Justice Department’s seizure of AP phone records. (Of course, it’s the somewhat watered down version of the shield law that had originally passed the House in 2009 and died in the Senate when Dems had 60 votes.)  

Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

President Barack Obama delivers a statement from the East Room of the White House, May 15, 2013.

*** Success depends on the follow-through… : So will yesterday’s actions keep a bad week from turning into a bad month? The answer: It depends on the follow-through, especially as it relates to the IRS issue, which has always been the most problematic controversy for the White House because it’s the easiest one for the public to understand. The immediate challenge for the White House -- besides disciplining IRS employees who engaged in this targeting -- is to find a tough-guy replacement whom the public knows and trusts (a retired Republican, CEO, top cop, you get the idea) to take over the agency’s reins. Make no mistake, this IRS issue has united a Republican Party that had been fraying on topics like immigration, the budget and to a lesser extent guns. So the real test for the White House is to stick to the follow-through and not allow the Republican Party to own it. The more bipartisan the outrage is at the IRS (and assuming there is no connection to the administration in some meaningful way), the more the White House believes it can insulate itself politically on the issue. But if credibility cannot be restored at the IRS, it really does hamper the administration’s ability to implement health care and it certainly doesn’t help get Republicans on board with immigration reform. It’ll be QUITE easy for a Republican to argue: Obama can’t run the IRS, what makes you think he can run health care or secure the border? 

*** … And also whether the GOP overplays its hand: But there’s also a danger for Republicans: Do they overplay their hand when it comes to the IRS? Already, the Benghazi talking-point emails don’t reveal the political conspiracy that many Republicans and conservatives had openly theorized, and they also reveal that Susan Rice -- whose reputation was dragged through the mud -- was a relatively innocent victim (though no one likes to be exposed as someone who was simply following a set of talking points about which they had little input). What’s more, the Benghazi emails have all come down to State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland’s concerns. Were they simply about trying not to hinder the investigation into the Islamic extremists in the attack (as Democrats say)? Or were they about trying to clean the State Department’s hands (as Republicans allege)? By the way, as for how government works, this email release reveals something that many in Washington have known for years but the public is less familiar with: These emails show how deputies are often the ones making key governmental decisions, with the principals later signing off.

*** Taking days to find that right response: All that said, yesterday’s moves were typical of Team Obama -- it often takes them days to find a suitable response to a controversy. Think Jeremiah Wright (which it finally solved with a famous speech), the bitter/cling remarks (which it first embraced and them condemned), and the BP spill (which took several tries to strike the right tone). Obama supporters argue that taking time to find the right response is more of a virtue than a vice, especially when dealing with complex issues. Additionally, they might say this criticism is more of a reflection on a 24-7 media culture than demands immediate answers and explanations. But there’s also no doubt that the White House would prefer finding a suitable response on Day 1 than Day 4 or 5. And, as we said above, we’re not sure the Obama White House has still found that sweet-spot response on these controversies; a lot is riding on its replacement pick to head the IRS.   

*** Don’t lose sight on Syria: While today’s news conference with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan will likely be dominated by questions regarding the domestic controversies over the last several days, don’t lose sight how important Erdogan’s visit is regarding Syria. The situation there has become a HUGE problem for Turkey, which is the United States’ most important ally in the Middle East besides Israel. And Turkey wants the U.S. to take a greater role in resolving the civil war in Syria. 

*** House votes to repeal Obamacare: Also today, around 5:00 pm to 6:00 pm ET per NBC’s Luke Russert, the House will hold its 38^th vote -- per NBC’s count -- to repeal part or all of the federal health-care law. House Republicans are quick to point out that today’s vote is only the third time Republicans have voted to FULLY repeal the law; the other efforts were regarding parts of the law. As the New York Times wrote earlier this week, “Three dozen is a lot for a bill that currently has no prayer of becoming law. But the figure …  actually understates the amount of time Republicans have devoted to litigating and trying to dismantle the president’s biggest legislative accomplishment. The repeal vote, which is likely to occur Thursday, will be at least the 43rd day since Republicans took over the House that they have devoted time to voting on the issue. To put that in perspective, they have held votes on only 281 days since taking power in January 2011. (The House and Senate have pretty light legislative loads these days, typically voting only three or four days a week.) That means that since 2011, Republicans have spent no less than 15 percent of their time on the House floor on repeal in some way.”

*** Are we witnessing Holder’s last hurrah? Before 5:00 pm yesterday, the biggest story in Washington was Eric Holder’s combative hearing with House Republicans. Few punches were pulled, and personal frustrations surfaced rather easily. There is clearly no love lost between Holder and Darrell Issa, for instance. While the hearing was all over the map, Holder struggled to explain when he recused himself in the national security leak investigation. While he explained WHY he recused himself, the fact he had nothing in writing or could not say when was something that just seemed odd for America’s top law enforcement official to admit. How does he not have the recusal in writing? Don’t lawyers put everything in writing?

*** Sanford’s first day back: Don’t miss Jessica Taylor’s dispatch of Mark Sanford first day back on Capitol Hill. “As Sanford took his official oath late Wednesday afternoon, he echoed the same themes of redemption he used in his winning campaign. ‘I stand before you with a whole new appreciation for the God of second chances,’ Sanford said. The Republican’s return nearly 13 years after he left Capitol Hill is all the more remarkable for his having overcome the scandal that derailed his governorship.” 

*** New poll: McAuliffe up slightly in Virginia: And in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Terry McAuliffe (D) with a slight lead over Ken Cuccinelli (R) among registered voters, 43%-38%. That pretty much mirrors our NBC/Marist poll from last week, which had it McAuliffe 43%, Cuccinelli 41% with registered voters -- although among likely voters, the numbers were reversed: Cuccinelli 45%, McAuliffe 42%. 

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The Democratic abortion-rights group Emily’s List has announced it has put six additional women on its “list” of top-shelf candidates for the 2014 cycle: Ann Callis (IL-13), Katherine Clark (MA-05), Jessica Ehrlich (FL-13), Gwen Graham (FL-02), Eloise Reyes (CA-31), and Martha Robertson (NY-23).

VIRGINIA: Quinnipiac has Terry McAuliffe (D) up 43%-38% over Ken Cuccinelli (R). Cuccinelli gets a 47% job approval rating. 

Hillary Clinton beats Marco Rubio in the poll in a 2016 matchup 51%-38%. 

NEW JERSEY: Cory Booker won’t walk to the Democratic nomination for Senate. Rep. Frank Pallone is running and slammed Booker yesterday. He accused him of “shirking his responsibilities” as mayor of Newark “accusing the city of failing to fund its obligations to the Hyacinth AIDS Foundation, a non-profit based in New Brunswick that helps house and treat patients with HIV/AIDS. Booker administration officials said they have not received the May 10 letter which was obtained by The Star-Ledger, but said the funding process is following its normal course.”

NEW YORK: The New York Daily News reports that former Rep. Anthony Weiner “is preparing to jump into the race, possibly as soon as next week. …  At least two people close to Weiner have been contacting political operatives to gauge if they would go to battle for him.”

President George W. Bush spoke to Charlie Rose: “I have no desire to spend my post-presidency trying to enhance my standing. … I want to be productive. I want to make a difference in the world and I want to do so without undermining our current president and/or engaging in political debate. Cause if I were out trying to defend myself I’d be right back in the swamp, and I don’t want to be in the swamp.”

Reuters: “The Minnesota Senate is expected to give final approval on Monday to a bill that would make the state the 12th in the United States to allow same-sex couples to marry and only the second in the Midwest. Leaders in the Senate, where Democrats hold a 39-28 majority, have said they believe they have the support to approve a bill legalizing gay marriage. They set a vote for Monday on the measure that members of the state House approved last week." 

The state Senate takes it up at noon Monday.

Dan Balz: “Two realities shape the debate over immigration reform: No bill is likely to pass without the expressed support of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), but even Rubio’s endorsement may not be enough to assure passage. For Rubio, the political stakes of both sides of the equation are huge.”

LOS ANGELES: “As Eric Garcetti and Wendy Greuel crisscrossed Los Angeles in search of support Saturday, many voters wrestled to decide between the two Democrats in this non-partisan race for mayor,” Southern California Public Radioreports, adding, “A poll by the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State LA found 9 percent of likely voters undecided on the mayor’s race. Greuel captured 46 percent support and Garcetti garnered 45 percent – a virtual tie.”

The idea of electing the city’s first woman mayor is intriguing to many residents as well. “ ‘Of course, as a woman, I have to say, a lot of times women get the job done,’ said resident Mary Lee. … The idea of electing the city’s first woman mayor weighs on the mind of Isaac Robinson too. ‘Sometimes, I just feel that we need a woman to take over the city,’ Robinson said. After this year’s city elections, the 15-member city council may have just one-woman member. ‘Our government is lacking in balance,’ he said. ‘It seems undemocratic to me.’ But Robinson, 75, who restores fine art, appreciates Garcetti’s eloquence.”

Los Angelenos will pick its mayor May 21^st.

MASSACHUSETTS: “Environmental activists are vowing to do everything they can to help Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Edward Markey in his special election battle with Republican challenger Gabriel Gomez,” AP writes. “During the Democratic primary, environmental groups spent nearly $1.8 million in outside money to help Markey defeat Stephen Lynch. Markey and Lynch had agreed to the so-called People’s Pledge, which discouraged outside groups from launching television, radio or Internet campaign ads. That forced the groups to spend most of their money on organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts. But Gomez has rejected the pledge, allowing environmental and other groups on both sides to pour millions into ads if they want. For many environmental advocates, the most pressing issue is the fate of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, which Markey opposes but Gomez supports.”

NEW HAMPSHIRE: So much for a Scott Brown New Hampshire comeback. He trails incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in a hypothetical matchup 44%-30%, per aDartmouth poll. Shaheen leads all comers. 

Since the gun debate, Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s negative rating has gone up 7 points – going from 36%/24% to 37%/31%.

In 2016 politics, Hillary Clinton edges out New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 37%-32%, and beats Florida Sen. Marco Rubio by 11 points, 44%-33%. (H/T: Political Wire.)

NEW JERSEY: Maggie Haberman: “Sky-high approval ratings be damned — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is going on air next week with an ad that paints his Democratic rival Barbara Buono as a tax-hiker who is yoked to unpopular former governor Jon Corzine …  The spot, which begins running Monday, is part of an $800,000 ad buy over the course of roughly a week, a source tracking the air wars in New Jersey” said.

NEW YORK: According to Page Six, Anthony Weiner shouldn’t expect the Clintons’help or support.

Reid Wilson: “The electorate that turned out in November to give President Obama a second term is nearly as diverse as the U.S. population at large, according to new data released by the Census Bureau this week. But the nation's fastest-growing minority group isn't experiencing the kind of explosive growth of political power that other ethnic groups have felt. And that means Democrats could be leaving millions of votes on the table. Less than half of all eligible Hispanics turned out to vote in 2012, according to the data. Hispanic voters in swing states were more likely to show up at the polls, but the slow pace of growth as a portion of the overall electorate shows Hispanics have yet to flex their political muscle.”

As First Read has pointed out, Hispanics made up 10% of the electorate but are 17% of the overall population. 

Politico on Rand Paul in Iowa today: “For all Paul’s success as a media brand and a mobilizer of the conservative grassroots, the Kentucky senator has done relatively little since 2010 to assemble a political machine around his own personality. For now, the Rand Paul project is a high-wire act that works largely without a net.”

The Hill: “Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) blasted progressive principles as ‘arrogant and condescending’ Wednesday night in a speech outlining his vision on how to sell modern-day conservatism to voters.”

NEW JERSEY: In an interview to air tonight on Rock Center, NBC’s Brian Williams interviews Chris Christie who calls himself a “damn good Republican.” But he said he would put his state and country before his party.

Said Christie: I’ll worry about the presidency if and when I ever decide to run for it. But if you’re saying to me, ‘How do I feel as a Republican?’ I’m a damn good Republican and a good conservative Republican who believes in the things that I believe in. … But that does not mean that I would ever put party before my state or party before my country.”

The Star Ledger: “Gov. Chris Christie today vetoed a bill that would allow early voting at polling places, prompting Democrats to brand it a politically motivated effort to suppress the vote months after Hurricane Sandy exposed vulnerabilities in the state elections system.” 

Said Christie: "I support responsible and cost-efficient election reform that increases voter participation because democracy works best when the most people vote. But this bill risks the integrity and orderly administration of our elections by introducing a new voting method and process."

Said State Sen. Nia Gill (D), sponsor of the bill: "The governor now joins other Republican governors who have sought to stifle the vote and limit access to the polls. Once again he is catering to his national base at the expense of New Jersey residents."

VIRGINIA: Beth Reinhard writes on how Terry McAuliffe (D) is having a hard time defining himself in the governor’s race. She notes that not being Ken Cuccinelli (R) may not be enough for McAuliffe to win.

Charlie Cook says forget Mark Sanford, forget Chris Christie and New Jersey, the race to likely have the most political significance is the Virginia governor’s race: “So Virginia has a race that might be illuminating. It is a swing state where moderate and independent voters will have to choose sides; the national political environment may well be a factor in driving them one way or the other. Indeed, the swoon of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds four years ago coincided remarkably closely with the drop in President Obama’s numbers, both in the state and nationally. The race hinted at what was to come the next year when Republicans scored near-biblical gains in the House and a six-seat gain in the Senate. So although the South Carolina special election had some entertainment value, if you want to look for a potential clue about 2014, you’ll have better luck watching Virginia.”

Arms race: “On Wednesday morning, the NRA announced a $25,000 television week-long television ad buy to support Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a New Hampshire Republican who’s been under attack by gun control groups on the airwaves and in town halls for her vote on the Senate bill,”  Politico reports. “Just hours later, Giffords’ gun control group, Americans for Responsible Solutions, hit back – announcing it raised more than $11 million in its first four months of operation – a staggering figure even in the age of super PACs and big outside money groups.”

 National Journal: “Senate Democrats began the 2014 election cycle facing a challenging political landscape, without many promising opportunities to take back Republican seats.  And with news that a top recruit in Georgia passed up a campaign for an open seat, along with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell still without a Democratic challenger, there’s a growing possibility Democrats could be playing exclusively on defense in 2014.” 

USA Today on Census report: “President Obama won a second term thanks to record high turnout among black voters and the first-ever decline in the number of white voters, a U.S. Census report released Wednesday shows. For the first time, African Americans were more likely to vote than non-Hispanic whites were: 66.2% of eligible blacks voted, compared with 64.1% of whites. Since the Census Bureau began publishing voting data by race in 1968, whites had voted at higher levels than black.”

FLORIDA: Charlie Crist now backs gay marriage despite having supported a gay-marriage ban just in 2006.

MASSACHUSETTS: “A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts shows Rep. Edward Markey (D) leading Gabriel Gomez (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 41% to 35%.  Markey's lead expands to eight points, 46% to 38%, when undecided voters leaning toward one candidate or the other are included,” Political Wire writes.

The Boston Globe: “Republican US Senate nominee Gabriel E. Gomez claimed a $281,500 income tax deduction in 2005 for pledging not to make any visible changes to the facade of his 112-year-old Cohasset home, a concession so valuable that it is classified as a charitable contribution under a federal law designed to protect historic homes. But Gomezand his wife, Sarah, were already barred from making any changes to the exterior of their home under the bylaws of the local Historical Commission, raising the question as to whether their donation — the price of which is based on the loss of value in their real estate— had any monetary worth.”

“The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee today knocked Republican Senate hopeful Gabriel E. Gomez for saying he was ‘never associated’ with a group on whose behalf he appeared on national television,” the Boston Globe writes. Despite appearing twice on television for the group, Gomez contended yesterday, “As far as OPSEC, I did two interviews for OPSEC. I was never associated with OPSEC. I never donated to OPSEC. I wasn’t part of OPSEC.” And: “I was never connected with them in the first place. I just went on there because we overlapped on that issue about the president taking too much credit and, more importantly, they leaked information that was bad for the unit down there and it put their lives at risk.” The special election is June 25. 

SOUTH CAROLINA: USA Today: “Mark Sanford and his ex-wife have settled her complaint that he was trespassing at her South Carolina home, so the newly elected congressman will not have to appear in court on Thursday.”

In another finding from the new NBC News/Marist poll, 55 percent of Virginia residents say they want stricter laws governing the sale of firearms, versus 36 percent who want them left the same.

Reflecting Virginia's status as a key national swing state -- President Obama twice won it by the same margin he won the national popular vote -- those numbers are virtually identical to the national ones from the April NBC/WSJ poll.

But there are fascinating political, demographic and geographic differences inside these numbers.

Eighty-two percent of Democrats in Virginia want stricter gun laws, compared with 56 percent of independents and just 29 percent of Republicans.

What's more, only 30 percent of gun owners and 38 percent of those living in households with guns favor stricter gun laws, suggesting a deep divide on this issue between gun owners and non-gun owners.

But that's not the only split: 68 percent of women in the state want stricter gun laws, versus just 41 percent of men who do.

And there's geography. A whopping 70 percent of those living in the Northern Virginian suburbs just outside of Washington, D.C., support stricter gun laws. That's compared with the Northern Virginian exurbs (49 percent), the central and western part of the state (49 percent), the Richmond area (49 percent), and the Tidewater region (59 percent).

The NBC/Marist poll was conducted April 28-May 2 of 1,218 adults in Virginia, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.8 percentage points.

NBC/Marist poll shows it’s neck and neck in Virginia… McAuliffe 43%, Cuccinelli 41% among registered voters… Cuccinelli 45%, McAuliffe 42% among likely voters… Good news for McAuliffe: It’s early, he has room to grow, and the GOP’s fav/unfav is way upside down in the state… The bad news for him: The poll doesn’t show Cuccinelli with an ideological problem just yet… Voters are relatively down on the VA GOV field, but are upbeat about the state’s direction… Looking ahead to 2016 in Virginia: Hillary tops McDonnell, while McDonnell beats Biden… Separate NBC/Marist poll shows Christie crushing Buono, 60%-28% among registered New Jersey voters… Looking ahead to 2016, Hillary is ahead of Christie, but the New Jersey governor leads Biden… From Appalachian Trail to Comeback Trail: Sanford beats Colbert Busch, 54%-45%... And House committee holds Benghazi hearing at 11:30 am ET.

*** Neck and neck in Virginia: Six months out until Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli are locked in a close contest, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll. McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman, gets the support of 43% of registered voters and Cuccinelli, the state’s attorney general, gets 41%; 16% say they are undecided. That’s a different result from a recent Washington Post poll of the race, which had the Republican leading by five percentage points. But a deeper look in this NBC/Marist survey, and it’s clear Cuccinelli has a slight advantage. It starts with intensity: 53% of Cuccinelli backers strongly support him, versus 47% who express similar support for McAuliffe. What’s more, among likely voters -- not always the best way to measure a contest this far out -- Cuccinelli has a slight edge over McAuliffe, 45%-42%. The race also features a clear gender gap, with McAuliffe leading among female registered voters (50%-34%) and Cuccinelli ahead with men (49%-34%).

Patrick Kane / AP

Ken Cuccinelli, Republican candidate for governor of Virginia and Virginia attorney general, speaks during the 65th Annual Shad Planking Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at the Wakefield Sportsmen's Club in Wakefield, Va.

*** Good news, bad news: The good news for McAuliffe is that he has plenty of room to grow (44% of voters say they’re unsure/never heard of him, compared with 32% who say that about Cuccinelli). And the Republican Party is a potential drag for Cuccinelli: The GOP has a 37%-53% fav/unfav rating in the state, versus the Democratic Party’s 44%-46% score. Yet so far, before any negative advertising begins, the poll doesn’t show the party dragging Cuccinelli down -- his fav/unfav is 42%-27%. In addition, despite what some opinion leaders might believe, Cuccinelli doesn’t have an ideological problem right now, either. Per the poll, 27% say he’s too conservative, but a plurality of 39% think his ideology is just right. By comparison, 28% see McAuliffe as too liberal, and 33% say he’s just right. And the two men essentially run even on candidate-quality questions, although Cuccinelli has a slight edge on some of them, including ones where Democrats usually outperform Republicans.

-- Who better understands people like yourself? (Cuccinelli 34%, McAuliffe 30%.)
-- Who do you trust more to do what’s best for Virginia? (Cuccinelli 39%, McAuliffe 33%.)
-- Who is closer to you on social issues? (Cuccinelli 33%, McAuliffe 31%.)
-- Who cares more about the middle class? (McAuliffe 31%, Cuccinelli 30%.)
-- Who shares your values? (Cuccinelli 35%, McAuliffe 29%.)

*** Down on the gubernatorial field but upbeat on the state’s direction: Strikingly (and perhaps not surprisingly), only 52% say they are satisfied with the field of gubernatorial candidates in Virginia. That’s compared with 61% who say that it in New Jersey (more on that gubernatorial contest down below). That said, all the state’s politicians are pretty popular. Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell’s approval rating is at 61% (what scandal?); Cuccinelli’s approval rating as attorney general is at 51%; and President Obama’s approval in the state is at an equal 51%. What’s more, if McDonnell were allowed to run for re-election, he’d lead McAuliffe by 15 points, 51%-36%. And a whopping 61% believe the state is headed in the right direction. Bottom line: The state is in good shape, and the Cuccinelli-McAuliffe contest could largely come down to which candidate can do a better job of selling that he would follow the Warner-Kaine-McDonnell path -- the conservative attorney general or the former DNC chair? It’s clear voters don’t really want change. It’s why when you look at this survey, everything points to the GOP holding the slight advantage as the party in power.

*** Looking ahead to 2016: And our NBC/Marist poll has some fun 2016 numbers to chew on when it comes to Virginia. In a hypothetical matchup, Hillary Clinton leads McDonnell in the state by 11 points, 52%-41%. Let those numbers sink in -- despite McDonnell’s 61% approval rating, he trails Clinton by double digits. However, in a hypothetical contest against Vice President Biden, McDonnell leads, 49%-42%. That said, nearly six-in-10 (58%) don’t want McDonnell to run for president. The NBC/Marist poll of Virginia was conducted April 28-May 2 of 1,095 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 3.0 percentage points) and 692 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).

*** In New Jersey, Christie is crushing his Dem opponent: In this year’s other gubernatorial contest -- in New Jersey -- Republican Gov. Chris Christie leads his Democratic challenger Barbara Buono by more than 30 points among registered voters, 60%-28%, according to a separate NBC/Marist poll. Strikingly, 42% of Obama voters are supporting the incumbent governor. What’s more, 69% approve of Christie’s job performance, and 82% back his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Meanwhile, 56% of registered voters approve of President Obama’s job in the state, and 46% approve of Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-NJ) job.

*** Christie and his party, and Christie and 2016: The poll also explains why Christie is disagreeing with his national party some of the time. The GOP’s fav/unfav in the survey is 34%-59%, versus the Democratic Party’s 50%- 43% score. Yet despite Christie’s sterling numbers in this political environment, Hillary Clinton tops him in a hypothetical 2016 contest in New Jersey, 52%-41%. But Christie beats Biden by pretty much the same margin, 51%-40%. That said, 55% of registered voters in New Jersey don’t want their governor to run for president. The NBC/Marist poll of New Jersey was conducted April 28-May 2 of 1,080 registered voters, and it has margin of error of plus-minus 3.0 percentage points.

*** From Appalachian Trail to Comeback Trail: Turning from future contests to last night’s contest, former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) beat Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) in the special congressional election in South Carolina, 54%-45%.. MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor put it well: Sanford’s political career since ’09 has had plenty of ups and down -- “more ups and down than the mountains of the Appalachian Trail.” And his victory last night represented one of the ups. Interestingly, Sanford now comes to Congress owing nobody, and he has a bully pulpit at his disposal if he wants to use it. Yet the biggest takeaway from last night is that in today’s political climate, ideology trumps all. You could be a disgraced politician, and you could have been fined for breaking state ethics rules. But as long as you belong to the right political party in your state or district, you’re likely going to win. That said, Democrats are certainly trying to use this silver lining after their defeat: “House Republicans’ outreach to women voters now has Mark Sanford as the face. Republicans now have to defend him and stand with him until Election Day,” DCCC Chair Steve Israel said in a statement last night.

*** House committee holds Benghazi hearing: The final story we’re watching is today’s Benghazi hearing before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which takes place at 11:30 am ET. The Washington Post: “Republican lawmakers, who have spent months seeking to tie President Obama to last year’s deadly attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, are increasingly focusing their probe on a new target: former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton. The GOP-led investigation of the Sept. 11, 2012, assaults that killed U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three others now centers heavily on the State Department and whether officials there deliberately misled the public about the nature of the assault.”

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