Rush Holt’s polling 40-plus points behind better-known Newark Mayor Cory Booker for the Senate special election to replace the late-Sen. Frank Lautenberg, but that's not stopping the brainy Holt from taking the fight right to Booker.

"I’m Rush Holt. And I’ll be the first to admit – I’m no Cory Booker," Holt says in a video released Wednesday. "I don’t have a million Twitter followers, I’ve never run into a burning building, and I’m not friends with Mark Zuckerberg, though I did like him on Facebook."

But the congressman with the bumper sticker, "My congressman IS a rocket scientist," follows up with this:

"I’m a teacher, a scientist, and my most famous moment was beating a computer in Jeopardy."

The famous Jeopardy computer "Watson," then appears to make something of an endorsement.

 “Who is Rush Holt," Watson chimes in.

“So, why would I run for the Senate against Cory Booker?" Holt asks. "Well, in Congress, I’ve always done what I think is right for New Jersey, like fighting to get more funding for science and math in our public schools and universal pre-kindergarten for every child because a good education means everything. I voted against the war in Iraq, against unwarranted spying on Americans, and I led the fight to repeal the Patriot Act because part of being the strongest nation on Earth is standing by our values.”

He closes with this: 

“I hope you’ll agree I’m the best choice for Senate. And if you have any questions, just send me an email, and I’ll get back to you, because I’m going to beat Cory Booker and win this campaign the same way I beat Watson in Jeopardy – one answer at a time.”

H/T to NBC's Carrie Dann for the headline.

Obama’s repeat performance in Berlin… President talks Afghanistan, NSA surveillance, and Syria in press conference with Germany’s Merkel… House passes abortion-ban measure… CBO says “Gang of Eight” immigration bill will lower deficit by nearly $1 trillion over 20 years… Boehner: “I don't see any way of bringing an immigration bill to the floor that doesn't have a majority support of Republicans”… And Markey, Gomez spar in final debate. 

Odd Andersen / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama gives a speech on a podium in front of Berlin's landmark the Brandenburg Gate near the U.S. embassy on June 19, 2013.

*** Obama’s repeat performance in Berlin: Repeat performances of a winning act are never easy; just ask any sports team or musical group. The explanation is pretty simple: It’s difficult to replicate a smashing success, because circumstances always change after the passage of time. And that was President Obama’s challenge as he spoke in Berlin, Germany almost five years after his memorable speech in the city during the ’08 presidential campaign. (The speech also comes almost 50 years after John F. Kennedy’s famous “Ich bin ein Berliner” address.) Obama began his remarks saying, “Today, I’m proud to return as president of the United States.” Then he said: “For all the power of militaries, for all the power of governments, it is citizens who choose whether to be defined by a wall or whether to tear it down.” He emphasized curbing nuclear arms -- a subject that’s always been more popular in Europe than the United States, for obvious reasons. “So long as nuclear weapons exist, we are not truly safe,” Obama said, adding: “We can ensure the security of America and our allies … by [further] reducing [our arsenal] by up to one third.” And he once again called for the closure of the prison at Guantanamo Bay. “We must move beyond the mindset of perpetual war.”

*** Then vs. now: Of course, so much of the attention of Obama’s speech is comparing it with the one five years ago. Back then, he was an inspirational presidential candidate; now he has a record with its ups and downs. Back then, he addressed hundreds of thousands of Germans; now the audience is smaller (due to German Chancellor Merkel trying not to overly politicize it since she’s up for re-election). And back then, German elites adored him; now they’re more skeptical (though a Pew poll shows a whopping 88% of Germans say they have confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs). The hope for the Obama White House is that, hours from now, more are focused on what he said TODAY rather than what he said FIVE YEARS ago.

***Obama talks Afghanistan, NSA surveillance, and Syria: Before Obama’s speech, he held a bilateral news conference with German Chancellor Merkel, where the American president made his first remarks after the Taliban had announced peace talks but also after an upset Afghan government broke off negotiations with the U.S. regarding military cooperation. Obama said the friction/conflict isn’t surprising given that the Taliban and Afghan government have been fighting for a long time and there’s an enormous amount of mistrust. On NSA surveillance (especially on those abroad under the PRISM program), Obama said, “This applies very narrowly to leads we have obtained on issues of terrorism or weapons of mass destruction… This is not a situation where we are rifling thru the emails of German citizens or American citizens… Lives have been saved and the encroachment on privacy has been restricted.” (It’s important to note that while Merkel is sensitive to how this program has been received domestically, the Germans have their own related programs.) And on Syria, Obama wouldn’t comment on what kind of arms the U.S. has given to Syrian rebels, but he added: “What I can say is we have had a steady, consistent policy -- which is we want a Syria that is peaceful, not sectarian, legitimate, tolerant, and that is our overriding goal.” More: “We want to end the bloodshed… The best way to get there is through a political transition.”

*** House passes abortion-ban measure: By a 228-196 vote last night, the GOP-controlled House of Representatives passed a measure that would ban abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy. (The bill would allow an exception if the pregnancy poses a risk to the life of the mother, or if it's the result of a case of reported rape or incest.) Per NBC’s Frank Thorp, the vote was mostly along partisan lines, with just six Democrats voting in favor (Cuellar of Texas, Lipinski of Illinois, Matheson of Utah, McIntyre of North Carolina, Peterson of Minnesota, and Rahall of West Virginia. And six Republicans voted against the legislation: Broun of Georgia, Dent of Pennsylvania, Frelinghuysen of New Jersey, Hanna of New York, Runyan of New Jersey, and Woodall of Georgia.

*** CBO says Senate immigration will lower deficit by nearly $1 trillion over 20 years: Also yesterday, supporters of the “Gang of Eight” immigration legislation celebrated the Congressional Budget Office scoring of the bill, as it said the legislation would reduce federal budget deficits by $197 billion over the next 10 years (2014-2023) and an additional $700 billion over the 10 years after that (2024-2033), NBC’s Carrie Dann reports. Said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY): "This report is a huge momentum boost for immigration reform. This debunks the idea that immigration reform is anything other than a boon to our economy, and robs the bill's opponents of one of their last remaining arguments.” Added Marco Rubio: "The CBO has further confirmed what most conservative economists have found: reforming our immigration system is a net benefit for our economy, American workers and taxpayers.” And be careful what you ask for: “Conservatives had expected that an analysis of the second decade — when immigrants would begin to qualify for federal benefits — would bolster their argument that the costs of an immigration overhaul were unwieldy, but that turned out not to be the case in the economic analysis,” the New York Times says.  

*** Boehner: “I don't see any way of bringing an immigration bill to the floor that doesn't have a majority support of Republicans”:  That was the good news for supporters of immigration reform; the bad news came from comments by House Speaker John Boehner, who suggested that he wouldn’t bring any legislation to the floor without the support from a majority of House Republicans. “I don't see any way of bringing an immigration bill to the floor that doesn't have a majority support of Republicans,” Boehner said during a press briefing yesterday, per NBC’s Luke Russert and Carrie Dann. He went on to say, “I frankly think the Senate bill is weak on border security, I think the internal enforcement mechanisms are weak and the triggers are almost laughable.” If you read Boehner’s comments carefully, he left himself SOME wiggle room (“I don’t see any way…”). But there’s another way to read his remarks: It’s very possible that he believes a majority of his GOP conference COULD vote for the legislation, especially if it gets sizable support in the Senate.

*** All about midterm politics? At his news conference yesterday, Boehner also argued that Democrats really don’t want to pass comprehensive immigration reform quickly because they’d rather have it as a midterm issue. "I'm increasingly concerned that the White House and Senate Democrats would rather have this as an issue in the 2014 election rather than a result,” he said. That might be more believable if this were 2015 and we were talking about a general presidential election coming up, but not as much in a midterm. Why? One, Latino turnout in midterms is lower than in a presidential, where they can make and have made a significant impact. And two, redistricting has led to fewer swing seats and solidified many Republican districts. “I don't think it makes much sense, either,” said David Wasserman, who covers House races for the Cook Political Report. “There are only 24 House Republicans in districts where Latinos make up more than 25% of the population, and only two of them -- David Valadao (CA-21) and Gary Miller (CA-31) -- sit in districts that are remotely competitive. So Boehner's contention that Democrats aren't negotiating in good faith is more an attempt to explain why those in his party fearful of a primary are causing delay.”

*** Markey, Gomez spar in final debate: Finally, one week out before the special Senate election in Massachusetts, Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez clashed in their third and final debate last night. Per the Boston Globe, Gomez continued to hit Markey as a Washington insider. “Nothing’s going to change if Mr. Markey wins this election,” he said. “We’re going to have the same D.C. down there and the same dysfunction. The only thing we’re going to have is him moving from one building to the next.” And Markey tied Gomez to the GOP and its political priorities. The two candidates, the Globe adds, also sparred “over Gomez’s decision to campaign with John McCain, a five-term senator, despite Gomez’s support for term limits for senators. ‘Did you ask John McCain to leave the Senate?’ Markey said. ‘No, Mr. Gomez, you did not.’ But Gomez argued that he did, in fact, tell McCain he should be barred from running for another term.” Yet if you want to know how difficult it is a for a Republican to run for the Senate in the Northeast, just check out this comment that Gomez gave to ABC: “I'm ashamed that only four Republicans voted for the expanded background check.”

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Quinnipiac shows Hillary Clinton topping Jeb Bush (50%-43%) and Marco Rubio (53%-41%) in Florida. Vice President Biden, however, trails both – Bush 47%-43% and Rubio 45%-43%.

ALASKA: “Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) on Tuesday announced he'll seek the Republican nomination for Senate — setting up a primary fight against failed 2010 GOP nominee Joe Miller,” The Hill reports.

MASSACHUSETTS: NBC’s Jessica Taylor: “One week before the vote, Republicans are arguing that the Massachusetts Senate special election is within their grasp, even as polls and outside spending tell a very different story.” More: “The biggest flashpoint between the two came when Markey questioned whether Gomez, who has supported term-limits, told Arizona Sen. John McCain, the only big-name Republican to come campaign for the GOP nominee, he should have quit after his last term. ‘No, you did not,’ Markey said, challenging Gomez. ‘Are you calling him a liar,’ the moderator R.D. Sahl asked Markey. ‘I’m saying that did not happen,’ the Democrat pushed back.”

The Boston Globe: “With only a week left before voters go to the polls, the two candidates for US Senate let loose tonight with their full arsenals in a heated third and final debate, driving home arguments that have resonated throughout the compressed special election calendar.”

AP: “Massachusetts’s special U.S. Senate election heads into its final stretch after Republican Gabriel Gomez and Democratic U.S. Rep. Edward Markey engaged in some testy exchanges during their final debate.”

FLORIDA: Gov. Rick Scott (R) gets his highest approval rating since taking office – 43%/44%, per Quinnipiac, but he still trails Charlie Crist (D) in a hypothetical 2014 gubernatorial race, 47%-37% - though that is down from 50%-34% in March. 

MASSACHUSETTS: Ed Markey (D) and Gabriel Gomez (R) debate for the final time tonight in the special election. The election takes place June 25^th. 

Planned Parenthood Action Fund has released mailers (here and here) in the special Senate contest that hit Republican Gabriel Gomez on the issue of abortion. 

Donald Berwick, Obama’s former head of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, is running for governor. 

MINNESOTA: Roll Call interviews the man running as a Republican in Michele Bachmann’s district, Tom Emmer, who some have called Bachmann 2.0, and he doesn’t completely shy away from.

NEW JERSEY: GOTV will hit the Jersey Shore, Roll Call notes, given that the primary for the special election to replace Frank Lautenberg takes place Aug. 13, right in the midst of the peak summer season. 

TEXAS: Texans would rather Ted Cruz run for president than Rick Perry.

Cold  War tensions are back as G-8 summit begins… A test of Obama’s international leadership… Cheney vs. Gore on NSA surveillance… New Yorker: Everything you wanted to know about the Gang of Eight... Boehner to abide by Hastert Rule on immigration?... What does Rowhani’s win mean for the U.S.?... Poll: Markey leads Gomez by double digits… And Manchin gears up … for 2018!!!

*** Cold War tensions are back: As the G-8 summit in Northern Ireland begins today, we probably aren’t the only ones having flashbacks to the early 1980s. With Russia alone among the G-8 nations in backing the governing Assad regime, the old divides have resurfaced in dramatic ways. On Sunday, Russian President Putin publicly lectured British Prime Minister David Cameron on Syria in a joint appearance, saying, “As regards to the supplies of weapons to the Assad government, … I believe you will not deny that the blood is on the hands of both parties. ... And there’s always a question, who is to be blamed for that?” A new Snowden-leak story about how the U.S. and British intelligence agencies eavesdropped on world leaders -- including then-Russian President Medvedev -- at a London conference in 2009 is sure to add to the tensions. And if that wasn’t enough, there’s a new allegation from New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft who claims Putin stole one of his Super Bowl rings. All of this is the backdrop when President Obama meets with Putin at 6:30 pm ET.

*** A test of Obama’s international leadership: As we wrote on Friday, this G-8 summit has become a test of Obama’s second-term international leadership. Can he stare down Putin? Can he keep the Western allies on the same page when it comes to arming the Syrian opposition? Can he articulate exactly what the U.S. strategy is beyond just hoping Assad will step aside and allow a political peace process to begin? Bill Clinton’s criticism of the president’s Syrian policy wasn’t nearly as impactful domestically as it was internationally. All this comes at a time when the president appears, well, a tad smaller today than he the last time he was in Europe. Over the past month, little has gone well for the administration as it’s been nicked by several different cuts -- Syria, the NSA leaks and surveillance debate, and the IRS story. And now there’s a new CNN poll showing that Obama’s approval rating has declined to 45%. As Team Obama is fond of saying, everyone gets their turn in the barrel. And right now, the Obama folks are definitely in the barrel. The potential good for them: That situation can always change. Indeed, it was just a year ago when the Obama campaign suffered a tough spell in May and June (poor jobs reports, “the private sector is doing fine”), and that situation changed in July, August, and September. Perhaps it’s a June thing. What they have to hope it’s not is some sort of second-term pall setting over them because that can be hard to shake. Appearance or illusion of weakness only creates actual political weakness. Bottom line: Obama needs to some meaningful progress, and it must gall him that his fate, at least internationally when it comes to Syria, is in the hands of Putin.

*** Cheney vs. Gore on NSA surveillance: Here’s a fun exercise -- looking at the NSA surveillance debate through the lens of two former vice presidents: Dick Cheney and Al Gore. For starters, Cheney “told ‘Fox News Sunday’ the National Security Agency-led programs have to remain confidential to keep the information from enemies and that he and other U.S. intelligence officials were concerned about a nuclear attack. ‘It was 19 guys with box cutters and airplane tickets,’ but the next time it could have been a ‘nuclear attack,’ the 72-year-old Cheney said. He said former NSA contractor Edward Snowden exposing the gathering of information on phone calls and emails has done ‘enormous damage’ to the United States' anti-terror programs and called Snowden a ‘traitor.’” And here’s Gore, via National Journal: “In a long interview with The Guardian published on Friday, Gore said that the NSA surveillance is ‘not really the American way.’ And that's not the least of it: ‘This in my view violates the constitution. The fourth amendment and the first amendment—and the fourth amendment language is crystal clear...It is not acceptable to have a secret interpretation of a law that goes far beyond any reasonable reading of either the law or the constitution and then classify as top secret what the actual law is.’” It’s time for someone to step up and moderate a debate on surveillance between these two -- we are happy to moderate!

/

President Barack Obama gestures during a speech at the Belfast Waterfront on Monday, June 17, 2013, in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

*** Everything you wanted to know about the Gang of Eight: As the Senate begins another week debating the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” immigration reform legislation, don’t miss Ryan Lizza’s New Yorker piece. It has everything you needed to know about the politics inside the Gang of Eight -- the McCain-Schumer relationship and how it developed, the tension between McCain and Rubio, improved relations between Schumer and Dick Durbin, and even McCain taking some of the blame for the bad relationship with the White House. (Another sign the Old McCain is back?) Bottom line takeaway from this piece: This is Chuck Schumer's show, he put this team together, and he seems to be keeping them together.  

*** Boehner to abide by the Hastert Rule on immigration? But that’s the Senate. When it comes to the House, the Washington Examiner’s David Drucker reports that Speaker John Boehner won’t bring any immigration-reform legislation to the House floor if it doesn’t have a majority of Republicans backing it, according to sources familiar with Boehner’s plans. From the piece: “One GOP strategist noted that Boehner is navigating a different set of dynamics than Reid in the Senate. In particular, House Republicans are likely to suffer a greater voter backlash in the 2014 elections is they back the wrong immigration reform bill than they would if they simply did nothing on the issue. ‘There is no national crisis with an artificial deadline the president can trump up and trot out on the nightly news,’ the GOP strategist said. ‘Boehner is under no pressure to put the Senate bill on the floor.’” Make no mistake: Boehner is facing two different pressures: 1) from Republicans who are convinced that the GOP must fix its problems with Latino voters; and 2) from conservatives in his caucus who are opposed to immigration reform -- and, frankly, anything President Obama is supporting. The question is: Which pressure will win out?

*** What does Rowhani’s win mean for the U.S.? Turning to international politics, there was a PRETTY BIG development in Iran over the weekend: In a surprise, the most moderate of the actual candidates Hassan Rowhani won that country’s presidential contest. The New York Times: “But while the election of the new president, Hassan Rowhani, a former nuclear negotiator who is considered a moderate compared with the other candidates, was greeted by some administration officials as the best of all likely outcomes, they said it did not change the fact that only the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would make the final decision about any concessions to the West. Even so, they said they wanted to test Mr. Rowhani quickly, noting that although he argued for a moderate tone in dealing with the United States and its allies when he was a negotiator, he also boasted in 2006 that Iran had used a previous suspension of nuclear enrichment to make.” 

*** Poll: Markey leads Gomez by double digits: Before next week’s special Senate election in Massachusetts, a Boston Globe poll released on Sunday shows Ed Markey (D) leading Gabriel Gomez (R) by double digits among likely voters, 54%-43%. One of the reasons why Gomez is trailing is that he isn’t running up the score among independents, which a Republican candidate needs to do in order to win in deep-blue Massachusetts. “Gomez is the candidate poll respondents find more likable and he holds the lead among unenrolled voters — the critical bloc of independents whose support he’ll need to top a Democrat in Massachusetts. But that margin is only 9 percentage points. Analysts believe that for a Republican to win in Massachusetts, he must win the unenrolled vote by a 2-to-1 margin.”

*** Manchin gears up … for 2018! Are we the only ones who think Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and his political team are overreacting a bit here? After all, Manchin isn’t up for re-election until 2018!!!! “Sen. Joe Manchin, co-author of a plan to expand background checks on gun sales, is launching a TV ad to defend himself from attacks by the powerful National Rifle Association,” Politico says. “Manchin will begin running the TV ad later this week, although details on how much the West Virginia Democrat will spend on the ad buy and its content were still being finalized on Sunday. Manchin will pay for the ad out of his reelection campaign.” If you were wondering if Manchin was going to run for re-election, well you have your answer -- 5 ½ years early!

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Beth Reinhard: “Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker polls near the bottom of would-be presidential contenders. Unlike potential rivals, you won't find him on the cover of Time magazine or slow-jamming the news with comedian Jimmy Fallon. But he's a conservative Republican who won election in a blue state, survived a brutal recall campaign, and now posts approval ratings over 50 percent. A budget-slashing chief executive and son of a Baptist minister who straddles the fiscal and social conservative camps. A proven fundraiser who has put his thumb in the eye of President Obama and Big Labor. He's poised to be the sleeper Republican presidential candidate of 2016.”

MASSACHUSETTS: A Boston Globe poll has Ed Markey (D) leading Gabriel Gomez (R) 54%-43% in the special election for the Senate race. Markey has outspent Gomez by about $4 million in the nine-week period before the election. A new Markey ad is all President Obama.

NEW JERSEY: Cory Booker’s at the 92^nd St. Y in New York at 6:30 pm ET tonight talking about cities as engines of growth as part of the “The Metropolitan Revolution” book tour with author Bruce Katz of Brookings. The tour will head to DC Wednesday with former DC Mayor Anthony Williams before going on to the Aspen Ideas Festival, the U.S. Conference of Mayors Annual Meeting, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and elsewhere.

A Stockton College poll has Chris Christie up 64%-24% for reelection.

NEW YORK: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D)’s favorability has slipped some to 58%/34%.

TEXAS: Roll Call: “When the Supreme Court takes on a key part of a voting rights law later this month, Texas Democrats will be watching more closely than anyone on Capitol Hill. The high court’s ruling could affect whether, and how, the congressional boundaries in the state will be revised — yet again.”

WEST VIRGINIA: Politico: “Sen. Joe Manchin, co-author of a plan to expand background checks on gun sales, is launching a TV ad to defend himself from attacks by the powerful National Rifle Association.

Manchin will begin running the TV ad later this week.”

Hillary Clinton launched “Too Small to Fail,” an initiative focused on helping children 0-5. Here’s the kickoff video. Here’s the site.

Beth Reinhard: “Rand Paul and Marco Rubio may go head-to-head in a fierce competition for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. But a funny thing is happening on the way to the White House: The would-be rivals have found themselves in a light bromance, each needing to bask in the other's glow for their own political purposes. Rubio needs Paul's help -- and political cover on the right -- to get an immigration bill passed. Paul needs Rubio's help -- particularly with the Hispanic community -- to soften his image in the center.”

Here’s our take on yesterday’s speeches at the Faith and Freedom Coalition event in DC: “Four Republican senators – including two who might run for president in 2016 – addressed a gathering of social conservatives on Thursday, touting their pet issues and outlining their goals and accomplishments. But they also urged the activists in attendance not to give up the fight, despite many inside the party calling for change on how the party talks about its values.”

“The four who spoke to the Faith and Freedom conference in Washington, D.C., were all elected in 2010 and fueled by the Tea Party: Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., Rand Paul, R-Ky., Mike Lee, R-Utah, and Ron Johnson, R-Wis.”

Rick Santorum also addressed the conservative conference yesterday. “Rick Santorum ripped Mitt Romney’s campaign Thursday for mishandling President Barack Obama’s ‘you didn’t build that’ gaffe last summer,” Politico writes. “The former Pennsylvania senator recalled all the business owners who spoke at the Republican National Convention. ‘One after another, they talked about the business they had built. But not a single—not a single —factory worker went out there,’ Santorum told a few hundred conservative activists at an ‘after-hours session’ of the Faith and Freedom Coalition conference in Washington. ‘Not a single janitor, waitress or person who worked in that company! We didn’t care about them. You know what? They built that company too! And we should have had them on that stage.’”

MASSACHUSETTS: Vice President Biden’s going to Massachusetts next week to campaign for Ed Markey.

NBC’s Alex Moe previews Hillary Clinton and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative Thursday in Chicago: “No two figures will stand apart more from the business luminaries, government officials and nonprofit leaders gathered in Chicago than the Republican governor of New Jersey and former secretary of state, who is just re-emerging into public life after serving four years in President Barack Obama’s administration.”

Bill Clinton’s interviewed by Bloomberg News and talks about the importance of U.S. manufacturing.

MASSACHUSETTS: This doesn’t sound very “progressive.” “A new political group called Americans for Progressive Action is set to soon launch more than $558,000 in television ads in support of Republican US Senate hopeful Gabriel E. Gomez, according to Democratic and Republican sources,” the Boston Globe reports.

Bill Clinton will campaign with Ed Markey Saturday.

Gomez reacted strongly to Trent Franks’ comment on rape, calling him a “moron.” "I think that he's a moron and he proves that stupid has no specific political affiliation,” he said. “I have no idea what goes into the mind of a moron like that... These kinds of comments only come from a moron and they shouldn't be tolerated one bit."

NEW JERSEY: Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) “enthusiastically” endorsed Cory Booker in the Senate special election. He cited his work as mayor of Newark and implementation of CitiStat. “In these challenging times, there is a clear contrast emerging between leadership that works and ideology that doesn’t,” O’Malley said in a statement. “The fundamental question is no longer about whether we move left or right, but whether we move forward or back. We need more entrepreneurial, collaborative, results-driven leaders like Cory Booker in the U.S. Senate, not more politics as usual.  I plan to work hard to get him elected.”

VIRGINIA: The headline from the Richmond Times-Dispatch on E.W. Jackson’s news conference yesterday: “GOP’s Jackson discusses past drug use, bankruptcy.” And while he says he took courses at Harvard Divinity School, Harvard has no record of it, the Times-Dispatch writes.

And he said, ““I do not believe that yoga leads to Satanism. One of my ministers is a yoga instructor. What I said was that Christian meditation does not involve emptying oneself but filling oneself ... with the spirit of God. That is classic biblical Christianity.”

WEST VIRGINIA: The NRA’s going after Joe Manchin with $100,000 in ads in West Virginia. Manchin pushed for a compromise, bipartisan gun background check bill and says he hopes it comes up again. But the NRA isn’t having it. The Hill: “One of the new NRA ads begins with a clip of a 2010 Manchin Senate campaign ad where he says ‘as your senator I'll protect your second amendment rights.’ ‘That was Joe Manchin's commitment,’ a voiceover in one of the ads says. ‘But now, Manchin is working with President Obama and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Concerned? You should be. Tell Sen. Manchin to honor his commitment to the Second Amendment and reject the Obama-Bloomberg gun control agenda.’” Here’s the ad.

Why Markey-Gomez probably isn’t Coakley-Brown all over again… Comparing Jan. 2010 to now… Obama stumps for Markey at 1:45 pm ET… Wrapping up last night’s MA SEN debate, as well as Biden’s fundraiser for Markey… Immigration bill clears first full Senate hurdle, 82-15… Where’s the RNC in this immigration debate?... Why isn’t Issa releasing all of the IRS transcripts?... Noem passes on SD SEN run… And Northam, Herring win in VA.

Evan Vucci / AP

President Barack Obama speaks immigration reform, Tuesday, June 11, 2013, in the East Room of the White House.

*** Why this isn’t Jan. 2010 all over again: As President Obama travels to Massachusetts today to campaign for Democrat Ed Markey at 1:45 pm ET, he probably remembers this: The last time he stumped in a special Senate election in Massachusetts, it didn’t turn out so well for his party. In Jan. 2010, you’ll recall, Republican Scott Brown upset Democrat Martha Coakley in the race to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, which ended the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority in the chamber. But a perfect storm of events and conditions helped Brown win his surprise Senate victory in 2010 (a feat he was unable to replicate last year) -- a national unemployment rate near 10%, the health-care legislation’s unpopularity, a poor Democratic candidate, a charismatic  Republican one, a Democratic Party caught by surprise, and a Washington controlled solely by Democrats. Will lightning strike twice for Republicans when Markey faces off against Republican Gabriel Gomez less than two weeks from today on June 25? The answer: Probably not if you compare Jan. 2010 to now. 

*** Jan. 2010 vs. now: At least one of those perfect-storm conditions remains the same (the health-care law’s unpopularity), but others aren’t. Here’s some data to chew on: 

-- Obama’s approval rating in Massachusetts: THEN: 48%-43% (Suffolk poll); NOW: 57%-37% (Suffolk poll)
-- National unemployment rate: THEN: 9.8%; NOW: 7.6%
-- State unemployment rate: THEN: 8.7%; NOW: 6.4%
-- Health-care law’s popularity: THEN: 33% good idea, 46% bad idea (NBC/WSJ); NOW: 37%-49% (NBC/WSJ)
-- Balance of power: THEN: Dems controlled WH, had filibuster-proof majority in Senate, controlled the House; NOW: Dems control WH, have 54 senators, and GOP controls the House.
-- Head-to-head matchup: Brown 50%, Coakley 46% (Suffolk poll); NOW: Markey 48%, Gomez 41% (Suffolk poll). Note: That 2010 poll was conducted a week before the election; 2013 poll was conducted two weeks-plus before election

*** Wrapping up last night’s Markey-Gomez debate and Biden’s fundraiser for Markey: Obama’s visit to Massachusetts comes one day after Markey and Gomez clashed in their second debate. (In fact, that’s yet ANOTHER difference between Jan. 2010 and now -- this White House is much more engaged in this race.) The Boston Globe’s takeaway from the Tuesday night scuffle was that Markey would oppose elimination of the home-mortgage interest deduction in deficit talks, and Gomez was non-committal. The debate itself was again a bit testy and, well, small. There was one odd-YouTube-ish moment when Markey fumbled a rebuttal line claiming something Gomez said wasn’t “math, it was arithmetic.” Oops… Meanwhile, Joe Biden praised Markey at a fundraiser Tuesday, but delivered this warning: “There’s a big difference in this race. Barack Obama’s not at the head of the ticket. And that means those legions of African Americans and Latinos are not automatically going to come out. No one has energized them like Barack Obama. But he’s not on the ticket. So don’t take this one for granted.” And this is something you probably wouldn’t have seen a week ago: Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) sent a fundraising pitch for Markey with this subject: “Worried About Digital Privacy?” 

*** Immigration bill clears first full Senate hurdle, 82-15: If you’re a supporter of the comprehensive immigration legislation that has now reached the Senate floor, you had to be encouraged by yesterday’s 82-15 cloture vote on the motion to proceed on the legislation. Eighty-two is a PRETTY big number, especially considering that Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) didn’t even vote on the measure. What’s more, more than half of the GOP caucus (28) voted to invoke cloture. What this means: Supporters can still lose more than a dozen votes on the final vote and still get those symbolic 70 votes to pressure House Speaker John Boehner to move on the legislation. One curious “no” vote was Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL); in 2012, 12% of all Illinois voters were Latino, and they broke for Obama, 81%-18%. By the way, here’s a fun way to break down yesterday’s GOP votes if you’re thinking about how reformers get to 70 votes (this is just a look at the Republicans who voted to start debate, but also includes McCain and Murkowski): 

Likely yeses:
Ayotte (R-NH)
Chiesa (R-NJ)
Collins (R-ME)
Flake (R-AZ)
Graham (R-SC)
Hatch (R-UT)
Heller (R-NV)
Rubio (R-FL)
McCain (R-AZ)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Toomey (R-PA) 

Southern Swing Votes -- need 3-4 more yeses
Alexander (R-TN)
Burr (R-NC)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Cochran (R-MS)
Corker (R-TN)
Isakson (R-GA)
Wicker (R-MS)
Coburn (R-OK) 

Midwest Swing Votes – 2-3 here
Blunt (R-MO)
Coats (R-IN)
Fischer (R-NE)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Johanns (R-NE)
Johnson (R-WI)
Thune (R-SD)
Portman (R-OH) 

Most Fascinating Swing Vote Deserves own category:
Paul (R-KY)

Probable nos:
Cornyn (R-TX)
McConnell (R-KY)
Moran (R-KS)

*** The path to 70 appears easier than the path to citizenship? Don’t miss the fascinating intra-party debates that are breaking out over the idea of trying to get 70 votes. Politico reports on Reid and Durbin being skeptical of Schumer’s push for 70+ votes, believing it will lead to too many compromises. Meanwhile, the Daily Caller has conservative opponents of reform skeptical of Dem criticism of the Cornyn amendment on border security, believing it’s a smokescreen as Dems want to make it seem like they don’t like Cornyn’s amendment but then when it passes, it ends up giving some GOP swing votes political cover.

*** Where’s the RNC in this immigration debate? Staying with immigration, NBC’s Mike O’Brien raises a good question: Where is the Republican National Committee in this debate? If you’ll recall, that post-election RNC autopsy insisted that the GOP “must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform” or else risk that the GOP would “continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.” But as O’Brien points out, “The RNC hasn’t aired any ads or posted any videos looking to give Republican lawmakers the cover they need to support the immigration reform law now before the Senate; the RNC’s most noteworthy announcement involved hiring Jennifer Sevilla Korn to oversee Hispanic engagement.” RNC Chair Reince Priebus gave this statement to O’Brien: “We are encouraged by the leadership from Republicans in the House and Senate working to fix our broken immigration system and will continue to work with Republican leaders to ensure the GOP message reaches the Hispanic community,” said RNC Chairman Reince Priebus. “As we continue to strengthen our relationship with the Hispanic community, we will address many of the issues Republicans are working on including immigration, jobs, and the economy.” 

*** Why isn’t Issa releasing all of the IRS transcripts? This likely doesn’t help Darrell Issa’s (R-CA) reputation as the congressional Republicans’ top prosecutor on Capitol Hill. Bloomberg News: “Releasing the transcripts of interviews with Internal Revenue Service workers who scrutinized Tea Party groups would be reckless, the chairman of the U.S. House Oversight Committee wrote today. ‘Your push to release entire transcripts from witness interviews while the investigation remains active was reckless and threatened to undermine the integrity of the committee’s investigation,’ chairman Darrell Issa, a Republican, wrote to Elijah Cummings of Maryland, the panel’s top Democrat. Cummings has said he will release transcripts of interviews with IRS employees by the end of this week if Issa won’t. Cummings said that in one interview, a self-identified ‘conservative Republican’ said the effort to scrutinize Tea Party groups was done to ensure consistency and that there wasn’t White House or political involvement.” 

*** Noem passes on SD SEN run: Well, this COULD have been an interesting 2014 primary. Roll Call: “Rep. Kristi Noem, R-S.D., announced Tuesday she will seek re-election rather than take on former Gov. Mike Rounds in the primary for the open seat. Her move clears a major hurdle in the GOP’s path to picking up the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson. ‘I am grateful to everyone who has encouraged me and pledged support for a potential campaign for the U.S. Senate,’ Noem said in a statement. ‘However, after spending the weekend discussing our future with Bryon and our children, we decided that right now we are in the best position to serve South Dakota as a member of the U.S. House.’”  

*** Northam, Herring win in VA: Get to know the name Ralph Northam. Why? Because he’s likely the front-runner for Virginia governor in 2017 -- assuming, of course, that he defeats E.W. Jackson in this fall’s race for lieutenant governor. (Remember, Virginia is a one-term-and-done state.) Last night, Northam defeated Aneesh Chopra, 54%-46%, in the Lt. Gov. Democratic primary, while Mark Herring beat Justin Fairfax in the race to be the party’s nominee for attorney general, per the Washington Post. And the Post also notes this development from last night: “Two Republican House incumbents who backed GOP Gov. Robert F. McDonnell’s landmark transportation deal also lost in primaries Tuesday. Del. Beverly J. Sherwood (Frederick) fell to Mark J. Berg, andDel. Joe T. May (Loudoun) was toppled by Dave LaRock. The rest of the state’s incumbents who faced primary challengers survived.” By the way, add this primary to the list of stunningly low turnouts for 2013 elections… The phrase “historically low” has been used quite a bit to describe turnout in L.A. and New Jersey -- now add Virginia.

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The filing deadline has now officially passed for the October special election to fill the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s (D) seat. Four Democrats and two Republicans will run.

Much attention at this point rests on the Democratic primary set for August, but Newark Mayor Cory Booker is the overwhelming favorite. Two polls released Monday – from Rutgers-Eagleton and Quinnipiac -- both showed Booker with more than 50 percent of the vote and with big leads over his Democratic primary opponents and leading Republican Steve Lonegan, the former mayor of Bogota.

Democratic Reps. Rush Holt and Frank Pallone garner just 10 percent or less. State Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver was not included in the surveys, because she filed later than the other Democrats. Quinnipiac was the only poll to test general-election match-ups, and Booker was handily ahead of Lonegan, 54 to 27 percent. (The margins between Lonegan and each of the other Democrats are narrower. Dr. Alieta Eck, a late Republican entry, isn’t included in the figures.)

Booker is far and away the best known candidate in the polls. So who are the other candidates?

Rush Holt (D)

First elected to his House seat in 1999, Holt has one of the more unique resumes in Congress. His past campaign bumper stickers read, “My Congressman is a Rocket Scientist” because he is, in fact, a physicist with multiple Jeopardy wins under his belt. Pre-politics, Holt served as the assistant director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, New Jersey’s largest center for alternative energy research. The lawmaker stresses environmental and infrastructure accomplishments, on his website, including his role in securing $150 million for the Land Water Conservation Fund and $800 million over two years for transit security improvements. He also serves on the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Natural Resources, where he is the ranking member of the energy and mineral resources subcommittee, which deals in part with the nation’s long-term energy strategy. Overall, Holt brands himself as a results guy, claiming that he “studies the issues based on merit, not partisanship.” Another interesting fact: Holt’s father, also Rush Holt of West Virginia, was the youngest person elected to the U.S. Senate, securing his seat at age 29. In fact, he had to delay taking his seat in the Senate by a few months because he did not meet the age requirement. He served just one term, and was subsequently a failed congressional candidate and gubernatorial candidate five times, including twice as a Republican after switching parties.

Frank Pallone (D)

Currently serving his 13^th term in the U.S. House, Congressman Pallone brands himself as a champion in two main areas: health care and the environment. He emphasizes his progressive record a la the late Lautenberg. The underlying message of his campaign website and Senate announcement: Pallone is a known entity. Launching his bid, he said, “I believe my record of 25 years in Congress…shows I’m the best person to get the job done.” Pallone has been called a “chief architect” of the House version of the Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare.” This May, he re-introduced a bill he authored that died in the last Congress – the Superfund Polluter Pays Act – that his website says would make “polluters, not taxpayers foot the bill for toxic clean-ups.” The Democrat is also known for an early career stance against President Bill Clinton on the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Pallone emphasizes that vote on his new campaign site as evidence that he protects American workers. National news articles at the time included the job concerns, but added that most of the “No’s” received a lot of contributions from labor groups opposed to the agreement. Per the Washington Post, Labor PACs gave Pallone $707,005 between his initial election in 1988 and 1993. Prior to Congress, Pallone served on the city council in Long Branch, N.J., and in the New Jersey state Senate.

Sheila Oliver (D)

Currently in her second term as assembly speaker in the New Jersey state legislature, Oliver has a liberal record similar to some of her opponents. She sponsored bills to raise the state’s minimum wage and tie it to the cost of living and to legalize gay marriage, according to her bio on the New Jersey Assembly site. Oliver is emphasizing the need for a woman to win the seat, which would be a first for New Jersey. Filing her petition, she said, “You know for a long time I’ve had a lot of consternation that for centuries we have had no women representing the state of New Jersey. So I am very concerned about beginning to move the process forward for women’s representation.” Prior to the state legislature, Oliver was a non-profit administrator and served on the board of education for her hometown, East Orange, N.J.

Steve Lonegan (R)

One of just two Republicans vying for Lautenberg’s seat, Lonegan is a former small-town (Bogota, N.J.) mayor, who has also made several unsuccessful congressional and gubernatorial bids. The conservative is probably best known for controversies around immigration. As Bogota’s mayor, for example, he pushed to make English the town’s official language after a McDonald’s franchise put up a billboard in Spanish there. He called the sign “divisive” and “offensive.” He later landed in legal trouble for hiring illegal immigrants to work at his home, according to the New York Times. On Tuesday, he released a statement with excerpts from a voicemail left for Sen. Jeffrey Chiesa, Gov. Chris Christie’s appointee. Lonegan urged him to oppose immigration-reform legislation because it is, he said, tantamount to amnesty. Chiesa was one of 82 senators to vote in favor of a motion to proceed to debate on immigration Tuesday, the first vote on this round of comprehensive-immigration reform. Lonegan called Booker, Pallone, Holt, and Oliver “Obama rubber stamps,” who are “all the same.” Fun fact about Lonegan: Samuel Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. “Joe the Plumber” from the 2008 presidential election, endorsed him in his last race for governor.

Alieta Eck (R)

Eck is a physician and former president of the conservative Association of American Physicians and Surgeons and is framing her bid for the Senate around her medical experience and, in particular, her opposition to “Obamacare.” In 2011, She voiced that opposition her testimony before a U.S. Senate committee. In a statement on her new campaign website, she says, “Having more physicians in the Senate who understand the health care system would make real health care reform possible.” In 2003, along with her husband, Eck founded a free clinic for the poor and uninsured in New Jersey. The political newcomer is popular with Tea Party groups.

Full Senate holds its first immigration vote at 2:15 pm ET… Obama makes immigration remarks four hours earlier (just his second official event on the issue, compared with as many as eight on guns)… Looking ahead to the amendment process… Not surprising a majority backs tracking phone records… Another dent in Hillary’s State Department armor?... Cook: GOP chances of an upset in MA SEN look unlikely… Primary Day in Virginia… And remembering Doug Bailey.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., flanked by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., left, and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., right, speaks about immigration reform legislation as outlined by the Senate's bipartisan "Gang of Eight" that would create a path for the nation's 11 million unauthorized immigrants to apply for U.S. citizenship, in this file photo.

*** Full Senate holds its first immigration vote: This afternoon, the full U.S. Senate holds its first vote on the bipartisan immigration legislation, which seeks to bolster border security and establish a pathway to citizenship for the nation’s millions of undocumented immigrants. This vote on the motion to proceed requires 60 votes, and it’s expected to cross that threshold. But the question is whether there are potentially as many as 70 senators who support the final legislation, which would give the legislation lots of momentum, putting pressure on the GOP-controlled House of Representatives to take up the Senate version. Today’s vote COULD give us a hint. A reminder: This is just the first full Senate vote; the vote for final passage won’t take place until before the July 4 holiday. There are several moving parts associated with today’s immigration vote. Tuesday morning, President Obama -- who sees this legislation as his top second-term priority -- delivers remarks from the White House in support of immigration reform, and he’ll be joined by business, labor, and law enforcement officials who back the bill. Also today, the labor group SEIU says it’s launching a seven-figure TV ad campaign (running throughout the rest of this month) in support of the legislation. Meanwhile, per NBC’s Carrie Dann, immigration-reform opponent NumbersUSA says it will be scoring today’s procedural vote.

*** The White House’s relative reticence: According to NBC’s White House producers, Obama’s immigration speech today will be just his second official event on the issue (compared with as many as eight he’s held on gun control). But this count doesn’t include the numerous White House meetings he’s held on immigration, as well as his speech at the George W. Bush Presidential Library, where he made a big pitch for passing reform. Still, this relative reticence is by design: Obama doesn’t want to become a lightning rod in this debate, especially since the goal is now getting GOP support for the legislation. Expect his comments today to essentially be full of encouragement and praise for the bipartisan work.

*** Looking ahead to the amendment process: After today’s Senate vote, the immigration debate will turn to the amendment process, and NBC’s Kasie Hunt says there are four key areas where Republicans are trying to change the bill. The first (and most important) is border security. Sen. John Cornyn's (R-TX) amendment is the one to watch; there could be others coming from conservatives, including potentially from “Gang of Eight” member Marco Rubio (R-FL). Then there's benefits and taxes -- how and when do those in the green-card process have access to federal money for health care, even emergency care. Then, Hunt adds, there are questions of who can apply for status -- specifically, there's likely to be tussles over the types of crimes that would disqualify a person from applying for legalized status. And finally, there will be questions about refugee status and asylum -- prompted largely by the Boston bombing. On the Democratic side, the most closely watched amendment will be Pat Leahy’s (D-VT) that would allow immigrants to get legal status for their same-sex partners. Another issue is guns -- Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) is considering offering amendments to restrict immigrants' ability to obtain firearms. Republicans want to steer clear of that issue entirely.

*** Not surprising a majority backs tracking telephone records: If you have been following American politics over the last 10-12 years, these new Pew/Washington Post poll numbers shouldn’t be that surprising. But they’re still instructive in this NSA surveillance story. A strong majority of Americans -- 56% -- believe tracking telephone records of millions of Americans is an acceptable way for the federal government to investigate terrorism; 41% say it’s unacceptable. Back in 2006, after reports of warrantless wiretapping during the Bush administration, 51% said it was acceptable for the NSA to investigate people suspected of involvement with terrorism by secretly listening in on telephone calls and reading e-mails. What’s fascinating (and also predictable at the same time) is how partisan reactions have changed. In that 2006, 75% of Republicans and just 37% of Democrats said that activity was acceptable. But in this newest poll, it’s 64% of Democrats and only 52% of Republicans who think it’s acceptable to track telephone records. This number also stood out to us: 45% believe the government SHOULD be able to monitor everyone’s email to prevent terrorism. When you think about it, that’s a pretty high figure.

*** Another dent in Hillary’s State Department armor? Just as Hillary Clinton made her Twitter debut -- stoking more speculation about her 2016 plans -- comes this story that could become an issue for her if she runs for president. NBC News has obtained documents related to ongoing investigations into allegations involving State Department personnel and at least one ambassador. A State Department memo says the ambassador "routinely ditched his protective security detail in order to solicit sexual favors from both prostitutes and minor children." The memo also says a high-level State Department official specifically directed department investigators to "cease the investigation" into the ambassador's conduct -- just one of what another document describes as "several examples of undue influence" from top State officials. Yesterday, a State Department spokesperson would not confirm specific investigations, but said "the notion that we would not vigorously pursue criminal misconduct … is preposterous." Just like the Benghazi attack, this is potentially another story opponents could use to question her management of the State Department. By no means are they debilitating, but they’re dents in her armor.

*** Cook: GOP chances of an upset in MA SEN look unlikely: Tonight, Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez square off in their second debate in the special Massachusetts Senate race. Political analyst Charlie Cook takes a look at the contest. “[T]he pressure is on Gomez to register a clear win; otherwise this race may produce an outcome for the GOP as disappointing as last year’s 5-point defeat of Brown by Elizabeth Warren. With another two weeks to go, the race certainly isn’t over, but the chance of an upset looks decidedly less likely today than three or four weeks ago.”

*** Primary day in Virginia: Today’s Democratic primary day in Virginia. And while Terry McAuliffe is already the nominee in this year’s closely watched gubernatorial contest, Democrats today vote for their nominee for lieutenant governor (between Aneesh Chopra and Ralph Northam) and attorney general (Justin Fairfax vs. Mark Herring). Given that GOP Lt. Gov. nominee EW Jackson is a VERY flawed candidate, perhaps the best way to view the Chopra-Northam contest is as the Democratic gubernatorial primary for 2017. Even if Democrats lose the gubernatorial contest, it’s very likely that Democrats will win the race for lieutenant governor and the sitting LG will be the de factor frontrunner for the GOV nomination in 2017.  

*** Remembering Doug Bailey: Last but certainly not least, one of the great visionaries of the political world -- Doug Bailey -- died in his sleep early Monday morning. Doug leaves a legacy that spans decades and, well, centuries and was a mentor to many, including one of your authors. He had three distinct and separate successful careers that all had one goal: to make the American political system a little better and a little nobler. In the 60s, 70s and 80s, he was considered the leading Republican media consultant of his time and in many ways, pioneered methods on political campaigns that are now the norm today. (Perhaps his greatest accomplishment in that field was a loss in the 1976 presidential contest.) Then, in 1987, Bailey set out on a second career, one that would make him a pioneer in the world of political journalism. He, along with a Democratic counterpart, Roger Craver, founded The Presidential Campaign Hotline, which later would simply become “The Hotline.” Put it this way: If you are reading this morning email from us laying out the day in politics, you have Doug Bailey to thank for it. Many of the leading political briefings and publications today are derivatives of The Hotline. Finally, over the last 15 years, Doug set out trying to engage the public in whatever way he could think of to fix what he believed was a broken political system. Whether it was his hope to see a third political party rise up from the grass roots or his attempt to see the two political parties work as one, he simply wanted the political system to be fixed. Doug Bailey was 79, he’s survived by his wife Pat, two devoted children, Ed and Kate, and one grandchild.

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