• Roberts goes the other way of court's conservatives

    By NBC's David Gregory

    ANALYSIS

    It’s interesting to note that two prominent conservative judges have upheld the individual mandate under the Commerce Clause -- Judge Silberman of the D.C. Circuit and Judge Sutton of the 6th Circuit.

    It’s interesting that Roberts went a way no other conservative judge from the lower courts had gone. He upheld it under Congress’ constitutional power to tax. Why does this matter? It suggests Roberts is guarding his legacy as the Chief Justice to show the Supreme Court has not become totally political and predictable. And that conservatives can be independent thinkers and not lock-step.

    A veteran, conservative Supreme Court lawyer said Roberts will likely be seen as being intimidated by the Left. He added that he believes it’s clear the opinion was initially a 5-4 decision to strike down the law under the Commerce Clause and that  Roberts flipped in the end. He points out that it's unusual for there to be a jointly written dissent among four justices. In the decision, Roberts appears to be saying to the Right, "Look, I’m with you on the Commerce Clause, but it can be upheld under taxing authority."

    In the end, there is also a big policy issue. The court said to Americans, you don't have to buy insurance under the mandate, but you have to pay the tax. What will Congress do next? That’s the big question – stay tuned.

  • 'Press Pass' conversation with David Walker

    By NBC's Adam Verdugo and Joe Toohey

    David Walker, the former head of the Government Accountability Office, called out the leaders in Washington, who he said "punted" on the debt deal.

    "The tough choices will probably not be made until after the 2012 elections," he said.

    In a conversation with David Gregory on this week's midweek "Press Pass," the former US Comptroller General (1998-2008) warned that the U.S. is close to a similar situation that led to major budget crisis in Greece. The difference is, he said, is that "Greece has got somebody to bail it out. We don’t."

    Walker also said that he’s thinking about a Senate run in Connecticut, adding that he’s not going to rush into a decision. “I don’t run unless I believe I’ll win,” he said.

  • Questions about tonight's speech

    From NBC's David Gregory
    As I gear up for tonight's coverage of the State of the Union address -- I'll join Brian Williams for the speech at 9:00 pm ET. -- here's my preview of what the stakes are for the president from TODAY this AM. More analysis from Morning Joe. And here are some things I'm reading this morning.

    I have been invited to join a group of journalists for lunch with the president. I will be curious to know how Obama intends to account for the difficulty of his first year and the message voters sent in Massachusetts.

    The other question is health care. An adviser I spoke to last night insisted that, while health care is a priority, they want to get a jobs bill through Congress first. It says something about the public's priorities. Here is what our new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows about the mood of the country.

    Finally, what about bipartisanship? Look for the president to call out Republicans who have been "rooting for failure," as one White House insider says. He will likely call on them to get off the sidelines. What will he offer that they can support? Isn't it also interesting that the GOP has chosen a moderate governor to give the Republican response -- not a tea party activist? Is Bob McDonnell the model for the GOP of the future?

    For more, check out David Gregory's blog.

  • Washington Ideas Forum

    In an interview with NBC's Brian Williams yesterday at The Atlantic's "First Draft of History" event, General David Petraeus addressed issues ranging from the future of Afghanistan, what's ahead for Iraq, and offered his take on the happenings in the Middle East--including talks with Iran yesterday. He stressed the importance of reevaluating U.S. goals and objectives in Afghanistan and said, "We're not yet at the point of talking about resources or numbers," and added that he has "not yet endorsed the resources" requested by General Stanley McChrystal, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan. He also made clear the importance of understanding the unique culture of the Afghan people and land while fighting extremist forces there compared to fighting in Iraq: "You cannot transfer everything that we learned in Iraq by any means to Afghanistan without, again, applying it with a very, very careful and granular appreciation of local circumstances." In describing the differences in leadership style between Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, Gen. Petraeus said, "I would just say that both of them are absolutely intent on understanding situations and on doing the absolute best they can for our men and women in uniform and for their families--and obviously for our country."

    Later at the Forum, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) told NBC's Chuck Todd that he believes Iran is an "outlaw regime" whose participation at the so-called P1+5 meeting yesterday in Geneva should not be taken as a signal that Tehran is willing to be transparent with its nuclear activities. Cantor told Todd that he believed the U.S. was entering its first direct discussions with Iran in thirty years "with the illusion that we can trust this regime." He added that Congress should "act as swiftly as possible to force a regime of sanctions" against it, in response to recent disclosures of a covert nuclear facility at Qom. When asked by Todd whether Cantor's exhortations for increased sanctions--even as President Obama moves forward with direct talks--was "politics on the waters' edge," Cantor responded: "The executive branch is the one to determine the posture of this country vis-a-vis others. It's his prerogative," adding, however: "we shouldn't be engaging with the regime."

  • Clinton on importance of Iran talks

    In an interview to be broadcast Sunday on "Meet the Press," NBC's David Gregory sits down with former President Bill Clinton, who says, "it's a good idea, if possible, to look somebody in the eye and have a chance to have a conversation before there's a total breach."  

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    Here's the transcript:

    DAVID GREGORY: is this a moment where the president says, to Iran, "We got you. And now it's time to act, or you're gonna face serious consequences"?

    BILL CLINTON: Well, I think that's what they want to communicate with them. And I think the reason they want to have talks is, if they have talks, and they don't just hurl assaults in the press about it, they can more explicitly lay out things they may not be prepared to say in public yet about what the options are if Iran continues down this path. And they can also talk about where we might go together if they reverse course.

    So I always think it's a good idea, if possible, to look somebody in the eye and have a chance to have a conversation before there's a total breach. But I think this is actually healthy that this has broken. The Iranians must have known that the Americans knew, somehow they must have found out that. Or they wouldn't have voluntarily notified the IAEA about this.

  • Assuaging Jewish fears

    From NBC's David Gregory
    I have heard from many Jews who are worried about Senator Obama. Is he an anti-Semite? Is he close to Farrakan? His own pastor is close to Farrakhan. Tonight a strong attempt to assuage their fears. To say that Israel's security is sacrosanct is a strong pro-Israel statement. Beyond that, to say he wants to rebuild the relationship between Blacks and Jews is new ground. But give Senator Clinton for pushing him harder to reject Farrakhan. Here, again, he absorbed the blow, conceded the point and defused what could be a slip up for him.

  • Hillary the fighter

    From NBC's David Gregory
    Senator Clinton the fighter. This answer on having to be a fighter on health care is her strong suit. Her point in lampooning Obama's high-flying oratory is to say, I, too, had only the highest ideals about public service in Washington. But I know through experience, you need different tactics. This is her experience argument.

  • Democratic caucus site packed

    From NBC's David Gregory and David Gelles
    Inside the Westridge elementary school in West Des Moines, this Democratic caucus site is packed. Huge turnout here.

    Only 86 showed up in 2004. Tonight, the line is out the door.

    It looks like almost 200 here.

    Registration is still open.

    *** UPDATE *** Per NBC's David Gelles, the official number of participants at this particular Democratic caucus site is 267

    Only 86 showed up in 2004.

    *** UPDATE II *** Per NBC's David Gregory, this is actually a GOP-leaning area in West Des Moines...