The potential risks and rewards of playing prevent defense, especially when you’re tied… Why a foreign-policy debate might matter and why it might not… Highlighting the clash over the auto bailout; it’s all about Ohio… Unveiling our latest NBC battleground map… Obama’s latest TV ad… And Obama stumps in Florida and Ohio, while Romney hits Nevada and Colorado.

BOCA RATON, Fla. -- Three weeks ago in the first presidential debate, Mitt Romney was the one who was aggressive, while President Obama seemed to be playing it safe -- and, as it turned out, too safe. Last night here in the final debate before Election Day, those roles were reversed: It was Obama who was drawing the contrasts, who looked energized, and who was in control of the conversation. And it was Romney who was playing it safe and often trying to point out similarities rather than differences. Obama was the candidate with more to prove; Romney simply wanted to clear the bar on the minimum height. Using another sports analogy: As anyone who watches football can attest, prevent defenses sometimes work (because they’re designed to prevent a big play and a quick score) and sometimes they don’t (because the defense loses its aggression and appears flat footed). Romney and his campaign clearly made the calculated risk that, with their momentum in the polls, playing it safe was a wiser strategy. If a race is tied, do you really play prevent defense? Only if you believe the race trajectory favors you. And that’s what the Romney campaign believes.

Slideshow: On the trail

*** Why a foreign-policy debate might matter and why it might not: But will last night matter? On the one hand, the subject matter was foreign policy (which has been Obama’s strong suit and Romney’s weak one), and the outcome shouldn’t have been too surprising given that Obama is the incumbent president and that Romney is a former one-term governor. On the other hand, look in our new national NBC/WSJ poll and see where Romney had made some of his biggest gains since the debate season began: He had narrowed the gap on who would be the better commander-in-chief from eight points (47% to 39%) to jut three (44%-41%). In addition, 53% of registered voters said they were comfortable with Romney being president, compared with 50% who said that about him before the debates and 56% who said that about Obama. Yes, foreign policy and national security aren’t the top issues in this election. But they matter when it comes to portraying strength and assessing if someone is prepared to be president. In that respect, last night helped the president and had the potential to hurt his challenger. What could save Romney? There are only two weeks left in the campaign. And given everything Obama has to do, making his affirmative closing argument, does the campaign have the time to two message tracks?

*** Clashing over the auto bailout: Yet perhaps the most significant exchange of the night wasn’t over foreign policy. Instead, it was about the auto bailout -- the very issue with which Obama hopes to win the battleground state of Ohio. Toward the end of the debate, the president blasted Romney on outsourcing jobs to China and for opposing the auto bailout. And the GOP presidential nominee responded only to the latter charge, one of the few times Romney took bait during the debate. “I'm a son of Detroit. I was born in Detroit. My dad was head of a car company. I like American cars. And I would do nothing to hurt the U.S. auto industry. My plan to get the industry on its feet when it was in real trouble was not to start writing checks,” Romney said. “I said they need -- these companies need to go through a managed bankruptcy. And in that process, they can get government help and government guarantees.” Obama then countered, Romney, you keep on trying to … airbrush history here. You were very clear that you would not provide government assistance to the U.S. auto companies, even if they went through bankruptcy. You said that they could get it in the private marketplace. That wasn't true.” Deciding to re-litigate the auto bailout with Obama was a calculated risk for Romney. He’s losing Ohio because of the bailout, period. In order to win Ohio, he has to convince skeptical working-class auto workers in places like Toledo and Akron that he would be there for the auto industry. It’s been a problem for him in Ohio for months. And guess where Obama and Biden are today: in Dayton and Toledo.

*** Latest NBC battleground map: Speaking of Ohio, here is our updated NBC battleground map with just two weeks until Election Day. The changes from our last map: We moved Nevada to Lean Dem; we moved North Carolina to Lean GOP; and we moved Iowa from Lean Dem to Toss-up. That puts 243 electoral votes in Obama’s column, 206 electoral votes in Romney’s, and 89 in Toss-up. Here are our seven remaining Toss-up states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. And out of those, according to our conversations with the campaigns, you could argue that Obama holds a slight advantage in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, and Romney has a slight edge in Virginia. Here is the map:

Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, ME (3 EVs) MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (70 electoral votes)
Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, WA (94)
Lean Dem: ME (1 EV) MI, MN, NV, NJ, NM, OR, PA (79)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, NH, OH, VA, WI (89)
Lean GOP: AZ, GA, IN, MO, NE (I EV), NC (64)
Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, LA, MS, MT, ND, SC, SD, TX (79)
Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, NE (4 EVs) OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (63)

Remember, we base our battleground map on more than polls, but also where the campaigns believe the race is trending in specific states. Just because a candidate is advertising in a state, doesn’t mean they believe the state is headed in their direction.

Rick Wilking / AP

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney listens to President Barack Obama speak during the third presidential debate at Lynn University, Monday, Oct. 22, 2012, in Boca Raton, Fla.

*** Closing time: Appearing to respond to the criticism that the president hasn’t laid out a second-term agenda, the Obama campaign is up with a new 60-second TV ad where Obama looks to the camera and says, “Here’s my plan for the next four years: Making education and training a national priority; building on our manufacturing boom; boosting American-made energy; reducing the deficits responsibly by cutting where we can, and asking the wealthy to pay a little more. And ending the war in Afghanistan, so we can do some nation-building here at home.  That’s the right path.” This is what we’ve heard Obama would be doing in the final two weeks – more making the case why you should vote FOR him and vote AGAINST Romney. By the way, the ad will air in Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Romney has a new TV ad called “Apology Tour.”

*** On the trail: Obama campaigns in Delray Beach, FL at 10:15 am ET, in Dayton, OH (with Biden) at 3:50 pm ET…. Romney and Ryan hold joint rallies in Henderson, NV at 3:15 pm ET and Morrison, CO at 9:05 pm ET.

Countdown to Election Day: 14 days

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Jason Reed / Reuters

Supporters of U.S. President Barack Obama take photographs with their cameras during his campaign rally at Ohio University in Athens, Ohio, October 17, 2012.

Presidential campaign turns into a contest of wooing women… Obama hits Romney on coal… Romney doesn’t mention Libya on the stump yesterday… Obama and  the fiscal cliff… New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Iowa and Wisconsin to come out at 6:30 pm ET… Ad spending crosses the $800 million mark… Our 10 hottest ad markets of the week… And Obama camp plays in Minnesota.

***  Wooing women : It’s very possible that the presidential contest could all come down  to a lot of little things and a lot of important demographic groups. But today, it seems, the campaigns are focused on one part of the electorate more than any other -- the female vote. So after the most recent presidential  debate raised women’s issues (equal pay, contraception) to the forefront, a group of women who worked with Mitt Romney when he served as Massachusetts governor today embark on a “We Know Mitt” bus tour through Iowa. In addition, Ann Romney appears on “The View,” while the Romney camp is up with   a TV ad   maintaining that the former Massachusetts doesn’t oppose contraception and thinks abortion should “an option” in cases of rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life. For their part, the Obama campaign and Democrats have seized on Romney’s “binders full of women” line from the debate, with Obama declaring  on the trail yesterday: “We don’t have to collect a bunch of binders to find qualified, talented, terrific young women ready to work and teach in these fields right now!” They also have noted that Romney supported the Blunt amendment, which would have allowed employers not to provide contraceptive coverage to their employees. And speaking of contraception, both President Obama and Romney tonight will attend the New York Archdiocese’s Al Smith dinner. Indeed, a few months back, some Catholic pro-life activists tried to get the New York Archdiocese to UN-invite the president because of the contraception health- insurance decision.

*** Obama hits Romney on coal: One of the under-reported issues that came up at the second debate: coal and the surprisingly aggressive pushback on the issue from the president. And the president didn’t stop at the debate; he hit Romney AGAIN on the issue while campaigning in Ohio yesterday. NBC’s Ali Weinberg reports that Obama noted Romney’s praise of coal in Tuesday’s debate. But the president pointed out that as governor of Massachusetts, Romney appeared in front of a coal factory to criticize its high level of toxic pollution, saying, “That plant kills people.” And Obama added, “Does anybody ever actually look at that guy and think, ‘Man, he’s really into coal’”? Obama asked the audience as he chuckled.

*** Romney doesn’t mention Libya: This also caught our eye yesterday: As NBC’s Garrett Haake observes, Romney didn’t mention Libya -- or the exchange on the topic from Tuesday’s debate -- during two campaign stops in Virginia yesterday. Instead, Romney focused on the economy and what he said was Obama’s failure to lay out a vision for a second term. "I think it’s interesting that the president still doesn’t have an agenda for a second term. Don’t you think that it’s time for him to finally put together a vision of what he’d do in the next four years if he were elected?" Romney said in Chesapeake, VA yesterday. By the way, it’s worth echoing what Mike Allen wrote this morning in Politico: This is the SECOND time Romney has given Obama a political “get out of jail” free card on Libya. It only raises the stakes for Romney for the third debate, focused solely on foreign policies. He has to be very careful not to walk into any more rhetorical traps which are much easier to fall into on an issue that isn’t second nature to the challenger.

*** Obama and the fiscal cliff: The Washington Post reports that Obama “is prepared to veto legislation to block year-end tax hikes and spending cuts, collectively known as the ‘fiscal cliff,’ unless Republicans bow to his demand to raise tax rates for the wealthy, administration officials said.” The article goes on to say, “If he wins reelection, Obama may finally be able to dictate the terms of a bipartisan debt-reduction deal. And if he loses to Republican Mitt Romney, Obama could make sure that tax rates rise before he hands over the keys to the White House on Inauguration Day in late January.” But this isn’t a surprise – this has been the Obama plan all along. It would have been bigger news if the White House was signaling that Obama WASN’T WILLING to use a veto here.

*** New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls! Tonight, beginning at 6:30 pm ET, we’ll unveil results from new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of the Midwestern swing states of Iowa and Wisconsin. The polls were conducted one day BEFORE Tuesday’s debate and one day AFTER it.

*** Ad spending crosses $800 million: As we reported yesterday, spending on radio and TV ads has now passed the $800 million mark and is on pace to reach or come close to $1 billion. The presidential campaigns and outside groups have now spent a combined $810 million. That means in just a month, $200 million in ads have been booked (from the time we reported it crossed $600 million). President Obama’s campaign is one ad buy away from spending $300 million by itself, far outpacing any other single spender at $299 million. The Romney campaign is second at $164 million. But with all outside groups combined, Team Romney is outspending Team Obama, $457 million to $353 million. This week alone, more than $58 million is being spent. Obama leads the pack with $20 million spent, but Romney is close at $16.5 million (of course, he is getting less bang for the buck because of when his campaign books ads). With outside groups factored in, Team Romney’s outspending Team Obama this week, $34 million to $24 million.

*** Hottest markets: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Four of the top 10 hottest markets this week (in terms of advertising points from Oct. 15-21) are in the Buckeye State. Wisconsin has two, including Green Bay in the top spot. One striking thing about this week’s top markets -- no Virginia. Markets like Norfolk, Roanoke, and Richmond have routinely been in the top 10, but they have dropped out to 16, 21, and 22, respectively. The Obama campaign has maintained its levels in Norfolk and Richmond, but cut it in half in Roanoke, from 1,500 points to 795 this week. The Romney campaign, on the other hand, INCREASED its spending in that market. The Obama campaign increased in places like Mason City, IA. Romney has more ad points than Obama narrowly in Denver, Mason City, and Orlando. One of the “tells” we told you about MONTHS ago about this battleground map was to keep an eye on October and see where the battle was being waged more intensely. If it was in the New South battleground states of FL/NC and VA more than the Midwest, advantage Obama. Well, this list of markets tells you, the battle is in the Midwest, that’s good news for Romney.

1. Green Bay
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. Columbus
5. Madison
6. Toledo
7. Rochester-Mason City-Austin (Iowa)
8. Cleveland
9. Orlando-Daytona Beach
10. Las Vegas

*** Obama camp playing in Minnesota: And speaking of ads, don’t miss that the Obama campaign is airing $57,000 in radio/TV ads in Minnesota, while Jill Biden will campaign in the state tomorrow (as well as in Wisconsin). Why is the Obama camp airing ads in Minnesota? Well one reason is that the state borders both Wisconsin and Iowa. But perhaps a bigger reason is that the pro-Romney Super PAC American Future Fund has spent $1.5 million in Minnesota since Labor Day, including $350,000 this week. *** UPDATE *** The Obama campaign reached out to First Read to note that the Minnesota radio spending is for Wisconsin. Update 2: The Obama campaign says it spent $57,000 on the Duluth, MN, market, which covers the Northwestern part of Wisconsin (Douglas County and surrounding areas).

*** On the trail: Obama campaigns in Manchester, NH at 11:35 am ET, tapes an appearance on the “Daily Show,” and makes remarks at Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner at 7:55 pm ET… Romney also speaks at the Al Smith dinner at 9:05 pm ET… Joe Biden stumps in Las Vegas… Paul Ryan hits Fort Myers, FL… And Bill Clinton and Bruce Springsteen attend a rally for Obama in Parma, OH at 11:00 am ET before Clinton heads to Wintersville, OH and Springsteen visits Ames, IA.

Countdown to 3^rd and final presidential debate: 4 days
Countdown to Election Day: 19 days

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NBC News takes a deep dive into the statements made by President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in their second debate of the 2012 election cycle. 

We take a look at two topics, the auto bailout and energy production, and put their comments to the test.

Oil and gas production on federal lands
Romney claimed that both oil and natural gas production on federal land has decreased, with Obama maintaining that the Republican’s assertions are “ just not true.”

Here’s their contentious exchange:

ROMNEY: As a matter of fact, oil production is down 14 percent each year on federal land and gas production is down 9 percent. Why?  because the president cut in half the number of licenses and permits for drilling on federal land and in federal water.
OBAMA: Here's what happened. You had a whole bunch of oil companies who had leases on public lands that they weren't using. So what we said was, you can't just sit on this for 10, 20, 30 years, decide when you want to drill, when you want to produce, when it's most profitable for you. These are public lands. So if you want to drill on public lands, you use it or you lose it.  
ROMNEY: OK –  (inaudible) –
OBAMA: And so what we did was take away – 
ROMNEY: That's –
OBAMA: –  those leases, and we are now re-letting them so that we can actually make a profit. 
ROMNEY: And  – and –  and production on private –  on government lands is down. 
OBAMA: And the production is up. No it isn't. 
ROMNEY: Production on government land of oil is down 14 percent. 
OBAMA: Governor –  
ROMNEY: And production of gas is down 9 percent.  
OBAMA: What you're saying is just not true. It's just not true.
ROMNEY: I  –  it's absolutely true. 

What’s the truth? Oil production did fall by 14 percent on federal lands - onshore and offshore -  but that was only in one year, from 2010 to 2011.

And it was mainly the result of fallout from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

But Obama is correct, that since he took office, oil production on federal lands is up.

RELATED: Sharp exchanges at second debate

In both 2009 and 2010, oil production increased ... so even with the 14 percent drop last year, overall production on federal land is still up 10.6 percent since 2008. 

But natural gas production on federal lands is down, and has been declining since 2003, according to the Energy Information Administration, mainly because of a decline in offshore natural gas drilling. 

Charles Dharapak / AP

President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney participate in the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.

Auto bailout
Obama called out Romney for not backing measures to save troubled car companies – the former Massachusetts governor opposed the federal bailout.

VOTE: Did the second presidential debate do anything to influence who you will support in the election?

"Now when Gov. Romney said we should let Detroit go bankrupt. I said we're going to bet on American workers and the American auto industry and it's come surging back."

The president was referring to a newspaper piece Romney wrote back in 2008, but the governor never actually said, “Let Detroit go bankrupt.”

The New York Times wrote that headline, not Gov. Romney. 

Romney did say the auto companies should go through what’s called a “managed bankruptcy,” where the companies would get help from private investors but not taxpayers’ money.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

BOSTON -- Mitt Romney's campaign and its allies announced their best fundraising month ever in September, raising $170 million dollars and reporting more than $191 million in cash on hand as the campaign enters its final stretch.

Charles Dharapak / AP

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney campaigns in front of The Golden Lamb Inn and Restaurant in Lebanon, Ohio, Saturday, Oct. 13, 2012.

The figure accounts for the combined fundraising efforts of the Romney campaign, the Republican National Committee and the consortium of state Republican parties that make up the Romney Victory fund. The total falls more than $10 million short of the Obama team's total fundraising haul of $181 million dollars in the same time period.

Despite being outraised by the Obama team, the $170 million total will likely be viewed with relief in Republican circles, as September was widely seen as Romney's weakest month. The candidate's highly damaging comments about 47 percent of Americans who view themselves as "victims" who depend on government broke in September, and dominated headlines and media coverage. The Romney team was also forced to parry stories about campaign infighting and backbiting, and polling that showed President Barack Obama opening larger leads over Romney across a slew of swing states.

Romney advisers had complained for weeks of an Obama campaign advertising advantage in several swing states, most notably Ohio. Much of the $191 million remaining in the Romney team's coffers is certain to be earmarked for television ads in the Buckeye State, as well as the expensive media markets in Virginia, Florida and other critical swing states.

Success may also beget further success for the Romney team. The candidate's strong debate performance spurred a burst of donations in early October, according to top bundlers, and the timing of this release of information -- as top donors from around the country gather in New York City for a retreat -- is likely to boost enthusiasm even more.

"With less than one month left, we will continue the hard work of raising the resources to ensure that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan can win in November and bring real change to the American people," Romney finance chairman Spencer Zwick said in a statement accompanying the release.

Underscoring that point, the campaign's schedule of major finance events continues, with Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan taking over headlining duties. Ryan attends a finance event at a midtown hotel in New York tonight, and will raise money in donor-rich Texas later this week.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

BOSTON -- Top contributors and advisers to Mitt Romney's campaign huddled Monday for their second major retreat since Romney secured the GOP nomination, a gathering intended to energize and engage donors and spur donations in the campaign's final stretch.

Some of the Romney campaign's biggest benefactors from across the country will meet at New York's Waldorf-Astoria hotel for the two-day confab, the highlight of which is a gala reception and dinner with vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan aboard the USS Intrepid on the Hudson River this evening. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and reality TV star/real estate mogul Donald Trump are also special guests.

Andrew Burton / Reuters

Former New York Mayor Rudolph "Rudy" Giuliani speaks at a protest organized against the presence of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, September 26, 2012.

The Romney campaign hopes this retreat will replicate the success of a larger one it organized in June, when hundreds of donors who had given at least $50,000 were invited to attend a set of briefings with the GOP high command in Utah.

To attend this week's affair, according to one top donor who plans to attend, invitees had to raise $250,000 -- a higher, and thus, more exclusive threshold.

A copy of the event's schedule, posted on the website of the Sunlight Foundation, a non-partisan group which advocates for greater government transparency, shows Tuesday's calendar is filled with meetings with campaign strategists and business leaders.

In the morning, a panel of Romney's top campaign advisers and strategists -- including political director Rich Beeson and pollster Neil Newhouse -- will brief donors on the campaign's strategy and the state of the race.

Later, a second morning session focusing on jobs will feature speakers whose names will sound familiar to anyone who's listened to Romney's stump speech: Jimmy John's sandwich chain founder Jimmy John Liautaud will join energy mogul Harold Hamm on a panel with other business leaders to discuss issues surrounding job creation - still the primary focus of the Romney campaign.

In the only overt fundraising effort to take place at the retreat, donors will join campaign finance chairman Spencer Zwick after those sessions for an event the schedule calls "Make the Difference," and which the Wall Street Journal reports will focus on making calls to reach out for more donations.

The final event on the calendar for most donors will be a debate watch party at the historic Roseland Ballroom on Tuesday night, which will include an appearance by comedian Dennis Miller. Earlier this week, Miller tweeted in anticipation: "I hope Obama comes out just like Biden did. Please."

YOUNGSTOWN, OHIO -- Speaking in a heavily Democratic area of Ohio Saturday morning, Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan attacked how President Barack Obama’s administration is dealing with China.

“The administration had their eighth chance to label China a currency manipulator – it's due in two days – they say they are going to push this deadline off until after the election. That’s eight opportunities to say, ‘you know what, play fair with us, trade with us fairly,’” Ryan told the crowd at Youngstown State University, implying the decision to delay release was political.

Related: Romney, Ryan campaign in Ohio, revel over VP debate

On Friday, the U.S. Treasury announced it would delay putting out a regular report on foreign exchange – including whether to name China a currency manipulator – until after the Nov. 6 election.

Ryan told the crowd in the heavily manufacturing Buckeye State that a Mitt Romney administration would not tolerate China stealing American jobs and property rights -- a topic the VP nominee frequently talks about on the campaign trail.

Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) during the vice presidential debate at Centre College Oct. 11, 2012, in Danville, Ky.

“We are going to stop this kind of cheating from occurring, if people are manipulating our currency, we are going to say that ‘they are manipulating our currency.’ If they are stealing our products, we are going to say ‘stop stealing our products or else you have consequences.’ That’s a big deal. That takes our jobs,” he said.

However, Ryan, the Chairman of the House Budget Committee, claimed “two million jobs we’ve lost” because of China just as Romney did in a TV ad “Stand up to China” which FactCheck.org claimed false.

According to the independent fact-checking website, that 2 million jobs lost number “is unrelated to currency manipulation. It is an International Trade Commission estimate of jobs that could be created if China enforced U.S. intellectual property rights.”

Asked about the accuracy of the claim, Ryan’s spokesman, Michael Steel, said “a lost job is a lost job.”

Obama campaign spokesman Danny Kanner wrote in a statement: “Congressman Ryan’s tough rhetoric can’t hide the fact that Mitt Romney will never crack down on China’s cheating – just look at his record. When President Obama stood up to China on behalf of American tire workers, Romney called it ‘decidedly bad for the nation.’”

Campaigning later Saturday afternoon in conservative southeastern Ohio, Romney, too, hammered President Obama for what he said was a failure to get tough on China, implying the administration was making a political consideration in holding off on labeling China as a currency manipulator. 

"Over the past several years, the president’s failed to call China a currency manipulator. He had the occasion on Friday to come out with that official designation," Romney said at a rally in Portsmouth, Ohio. "Do you know what they said? We’re not going to make any determination until after the election. Let me tell you on day one of my administration I will label China a currency manipulator, we gotta get those jobs back and get trade to be fair."

During his 17^th public event in the battleground state of Ohio, Ryan continued hammering home the GOP message on China: “You don’t want to put your country in the position where you have to borrow all this money from another country to pay for your government. This compromises our sovereignty, it compromises our independence, its harming our economy and we need to put a stop to this. It's making – it's a huge problem we need to deal with.”

Following the town hall, Ryan and his family stopped by a local soup kitchen and helped wash dishes.

"We just wanted to come by and say thanks for doing what you're doing. This is what makes society go," Ryan said to volunteers at St. Vincent DePaul Society, run by a Catholic charity.

Biden, the aggressor … His performance was therapeutic for base Democrats, but Ryan held his own. … It was Scranton Joe vs. Think Tank Ryan, heart vs. head … Both Biden and Ryan accomplished their goals … But Biden struggled on Libya … Ryan struggled on stimulus, abortion … The ball moves to Obama. His challenge – searching for Goldilocks, not too hot, not too cold. … Biden-Ryan didn’t come to blows but Berman-Sherman almost did …and things get nasty in Arizona.

DANVILLE, Ky. -- If there was something both sides agreed on last night, it was this: Joe Biden was aggressive at last night’s vice-presidential debate. Now, Republicans thought he was too aggressive (with his interruptions, laughs, and facial expressions), and Democrats thought he was just right. After last week’s presidential debate, Biden threw the kitchen sink at both Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney -- on issues that President Obama didn't touch in Denver. He brought up Mitt Romney’s “47%” comment. “It [Romney’s opposition to the auto bailout] shouldn’t be surprising for a guy who says 47% of the American people are unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives.”

He brought up Osama bin Laden, resurrecting Romney’s 2007 line that he “wouldn’t move heaven and earth to get bin Laden." And Biden tried to score points on the issue of abortion. “I guess he accepts Gov. Romney's position now, because in the past he has argued that there was … rape and forcible rape.” More than anything, Biden's performance was therapeutic for base Democrats after Obama's dud in Denver.

Alex Wong / Getty Images

DANVILLE, KY - OCTOBER 11: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden speaks during the vice presidential debate at Centre College October 11, 2012 in Danville, Kentucky. This is the second of four debates during the presidential election season and the only debate between the vice presidential candidates before the closely-contested election November 6. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

*** Scranton Joe vs. Think Tank Ryan: So who won? If you judge a debate on who took the fight to his opponent, who best defended his top of the ticket, and who best attacked the other side, you’d have to say it was Biden. (Indeed, by our count, Biden said “Romney” 26 times, while Ryan said “Obama” or “the president” 14 times.)  If you judge a debate purely on style points, Biden might get penalized. And if you judge a debate by who best plays it safe -- especially on issue terrain that’s not your comfort zone -- then Paul Ryan scored well.

Related: Biden plays aggressor in debate as Ryan argues GOP case

That’s probably why the two insta-polls after the debate seemed to indicate a split decision. CBS’s poll of “undecideds” gave it to Biden. CNN’s poll of ALL voters went to Ryan. Both men had two different strategies: Biden was there to energize his side after last week and draw a clear contrast with his opposition, especially on issues like abortion and foreign policy. Ryan, meanwhile, was there to look competent, pass the presidential threshold test and do no harm as we head into next week’s second presidential debate.

Related: Ryan wades deep into lengthy Afghanistan argument

They both accomplished their goals but did it with two very different styles: It was Scranton Joe vs. Think Tank Ryan. Heart vs. head. And as political commentator Matthew Dowd, who worked for the Bush campaign but for Democrats before that put it on Twitter: “Heart wins.”

Slideshow: A look at Biden

A glimpse over the years at U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del.

Launch slideshow

*** Fine lines: Biden needed to walk a fine line between gravitas and condescension. At times, he accomplished that; at times, he didn't. He did, however, appear more knowledgeable with one GIANT exception – Libya. When he said, stunningly, that the administration was unaware of security requests, it may have been the most significant news of the night (more on that below). Ryan needed to look presidential, and you could say he accomplished that, but he also sometimes seemed overmatched by the more aggressive Biden on foreign policy and even on SOME fiscal issues, like the stimulus. Ryan struggled to explain his letter requesting stimulus money despite criticizing the program. In all, Biden did what he needed to do – re-energize the base after the president's lackluster performance a week ago and stop the handwringing and fretting. He did that. Now, the ball moves back to the president, with a different style than Biden that has more appeal to independents and undecideds. Ryan’s job was not to blow the lead for Romney, become an unexpected problem. And he did that. Now it’s up to Romney to see if he can win two debates in a row, something he needs to do if he’s going to not just draw EVEN with the presidential in the battlegrounds, but surpass him.

*** Ryan struggled on abortion: Where Ryan struggled the most, interestingly, was on abortion. And don’t be surprised if we see Obama pick up the same attack. When moderator Martha Raddatz asked if a Romney-Ryan ticket should worry those who want abortion to remain legal, Ryan replied, “We don't think that unelected judges should make this decision; that people through their elected representatives in reaching a consensus in society through the democratic process should make this determination.” Biden pounced, “The next president will get one or two Supreme Court nominees. That's how close Roe v. Wade is. Just ask yourself, with Robert Bork being the chief adviser on the court for -- for Mr. Romney, who do you think he's likely to appoint?”

Slideshow: Vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan

Larry Downing / Reuters

See images from throughout his career in Washington, D.C.

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*** Where Biden struggled was on Libya and the Benghazi attack: “We weren't told they wanted more security,” Biden said. “And by the way at the time, we said exactly what the intelligence community told us that they knew, that was the assessment." But as NBC’s Andrea Mitchell has pointed out, the State Department DID know that requests for more security resources had been made -- and were turned down. In fact, a State Department official acknowledged that while testifying on Capitol Hill on Wednesday. Considering the timing of this debate, yesterday’s Capitol Hill hearing and the Tuesday full tick-tock of what REALLY happened in Benghazi, it’s shocking Biden didn’t have a better answer than what he said. His strategy for the debate was, give the minimum answer and move to Iraq and Afghanistan. Not sure that can work for the president.

*** Looking ahead to next week – in search of Goldilocks: The pressure is still on Obama in next week's town hall-style debate in New York. But make no mistake: Biden -- by turning his volume to 11 last night -- takes some of that pressure off the president. If you've followed Obama over the past six years, you know it's not his style to be overly aggressive. Well, Biden last night both gave Obama a roadmap for how to attack Romney-Ryan (on abortion, tax fairness, foreign policy), and he gave him room to do it in the way he feels most comfortable. The question is: Can he deliver? And can Romney deliver another solid performance? Obama is looking for a Goldilocks' performance. Obama in Denver was too cold, Biden in Danville might have been too hot, and Obama, the sequel, has to figure out how to be just the right combination of assertive without being condescending. On to Hofstra!

*** Berman vs. Sherman (literally, folks!): A lot of boxing metaphors are thrown around before and after debates. No one expects there to be a REAL fight. Of last night’s Biden-Ryan showdown, at least you can say they respected one another – enough not to come to blows, anyway. The same CAN”T be said of a debate last night between two DEMOCRATIC congressman. The L.A. Times: “The bitter race for a San Fernando Valley congressional district took a bizarre turn Thursday when Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Valley Village) and Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks) got into a near-altercation during a forum at Pierce College. Video of the event in Woodland Hills shows the candidates exchanging words and Sherman at one point putting his arm around Berman, saying: ‘Do you want to get into this?’ A uniformed officer then came onto the stage and appeared to ask that they move away from each other.” Sherman, by the way, who initiated the touching has apologized.

*** Raising Arizona: And speaking of nasty, don't miss what's happening down in the open Arizona Senate race. Rep. Jeff Flake (R) went up with an ad featuring Richard Carmona’s (D) former boss, who says Carmona angrily pounded on her door in the middle of the night, and it was Carmona. “Carmona’s not who he seems,” she says looking directly to camera. “He has issues with anger, with ethics, and with women. … Richard Carmona should never, ever be in the U.S. Senate.” Carmona responded with an ad of his own, showing pictures of his family, a former female co-worker from his SWAT team, him talking to children, and the famous picture of him rappelling from a helicopter to save a man. “When I see a career politician like Jeff Flake attacking Rich Carmona, who has spent his life helping others, it’s despicable,” the co-worker says. “Congressman Flake should be ashamed.”

*** On the trail: Fresh off of his debate performance, Ryan heads to Ohio where he’ll hit a rally with Romney in Lancaster at 5:40 pm ET… Before that, Romney campaigns in Richmond, VA at 12:10 pm ET… Meanwhile, Joe and Jill Biden stump in La Crosse, WI at 2:00 pm ET.

Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 4 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 10 days
Countdown to Election Day: 25 days

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Setting the stage for tomorrow’s VP debate: The pressure is on… Biden’s challenge vs. Ryan’s challenge… Today’s main event: Issa’s hearing on the attack in Libya… Romney’s statement on abortion… New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of FL, OH, and VA to come out tomorrow morning… Team Obama’s tactical ad-buying advantage over Team Romney… This week’s 10 hottest advertising markets… And Obama’s new TV ad combining “47%” and Medicare.

Susan Walsh / AP

Vice President Joseph Biden speaks at the Mine Resistance Ambush Protected Program transition ceremony, Monday, Oct. 1, 2012.

*** The pressure is on: While vice-presidential debates typically don't have much bearing on the presidential contest, tomorrow night's Joe Biden-vs.-Paul Ryan showdown has put pressure on both sides. Team Obama NEEDS a strong performance from Biden to make up for last week and change the subject; another bad outing by a member of the ticket and the Democratic handwringing could turn into a full-fledged panic. Meanwhile, Team Romney needs a solid outing from Ryan to keep up the momentum. As we wrote last week, consider tomorrow night Game 2 of a baseball playoff series. After ace Romney beat ace Obama in Game 1, Democrats are looking for their No. 2 starter, Biden, to even the score. And Republicans are looking to go 2-0. That's what at stake Thursday, and that's why there's more pressure on Biden than on Ryan.

*** Biden’s challenge: Yet despite the pressure, anyone who watched Biden during the 2008 Democratic primary debates might consider him the favorite going into tomorrow night. Yes, he's susceptible to gaffes. Yes, he’s prone to hyperbole and verbal tics (“literally” he is). And yes, he hasn’t had much practice with TV interviews in the past few months (an Obama campaign OVER-correction from the gay-marriage news). But Biden is also a strong debater. And he has the same thing going for him that benefitted Dick Cheney against John Edwards eight years ago: gravitas. You might disagree with him on the issues, but Biden knows A LOT about national security and foreign affairs, about domestic policy, and about the judiciary. He’s the elder statesman facing off against a young (but also smart) opponent. Yet this is also a challenge for him. With the Obama campaign promising -- and with Democratic partisans hoping for -- an aggressive Biden, the vice president has to walk a fine line between being aggressive but also keeping that gravitas. That’s his challenge tomorrow night.

*** Ryan’s challenge: Meanwhile, Paul Ryan’s challenge is potentially more daunting: He has to defend BOTH his record and also Mitt Romney’s. And as we’ve seen over the past few weeks, Ryan’s record and budget plan have diverged from Romney’s. Examples: While Romney has criticized the health-care law’s $716 billion in Medicare savings, Ryan’s own budget assumes those same savings; while Romney maintained at last week’s debate that “I’m not going to cut education funding,” Ryan’s budget leads to long-term spending reductions in education; while Romney opposed the auto bailout, Ryan voted for it; while Romney has hit Obama for the looming defense cuts, Ryan voted for the Budget Control Act of 2011 that contains them; and while Romney has blasted Obama for not embracing Simpson-Bowles, Ryan voted against the Simpson-Bowles recommendations. Also, Romney certainly lowered debate expectations for his running mate yesterday, when he told CNN: “This is, I think, Paul's first debate. I may be wrong. He may have done something in high school, I don't know.” Did Romney really say “high school”? Not exactly the best way to help the young Ryan look presidential (or vice-presidential).

*** Issa’s hearing on Libya: So the vice-presidential debate is tomorrow’s big political story. But what is shaping up to be today’s is Darrell Issa’s House Oversight and Government Reform hearing on the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya. How concerned is the Obama administration about today’s hearing, which starts at noon ET? Concerned enough that the State Department -- after weeks of near-silence -- yesterday gave a tick-tock of what happened in Libya, and that tick-tock doesn’t even remotely match what UN Ambassador Susan Rice said in the days after the attack (that it was sparked by that anti-Islam video and that it wasn’t premeditated). Of course, the Obama administration has since revised its story, and it’s better to be late than never. But there’s no doubt that today’s hearing is going to be – at the very least -- a headache for the White House. An example: Today’s Washington Post report on the State Department concluding, back in July, “that the risk of violence to diplomats and other Americans in Libya was high and that the weak U.S.-backed government in Tripoli could do little about it.” Just askin’, but where is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton? Why isn’t the administration sending her out to help explain what happened? Isn’t this her turf? Also, did the intelligence community really let Susan Rice go out FIVE DAYS after the attack and say what she said? They didn’t know FIVE DAYS LATER that there was not a single protest at all in Benghazi?

*** Romney’s statement on abortion: Speaking of headaches, this could be one for Mitt Romney. In an interview yesterday with the Des Moines Register’s editorial board, Romney said: “There’s no legislation with regards to abortion that I’m familiar with that would become part of my agenda.” That statement could very well surprise many of his conservative supporters. And Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul emailed this response to National Review: “Gov. Romney would of course support legislation aimed at providing greater protections for life.” Saul gave this other statement to NBC News: "Mitt Romney is proudly pro-life, and he will be a pro-life president." We imagine that conservative commentators will be biting their tongues over Romney’s statement to the Des Moines Register. But it’s pretty remarkable – in today’s day and age – for a GOP presidential nominee to say there’s no abortion-related legislation that would become part of his agenda. By the way, you know Romney’s doing well when social conservatives bite their collective tongue.

*** New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of FL, OH, VA: Just how big was Romney’s bounce after the debate? And did it continue beyond the immediate days afterward? We’ll be releasing new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls tomorrow morning that will give us a good answer. Before last week’s debate, we measured the contests of Florida (where it was Obama 47% Romney 46%), Ohio (Obama 51% Romney 43%), and Virginia (Obama 48% Romney 46%). Well, after the debate, we went back into the field in those same three states. Stay tuned for the results.

*** Team Obama’s tactical advantage over Team Romney: If Obama ends up winning the presidential contest, it could very well come down to this: Team Obama has a tactical advantage over Team Romney, and that’s especially true when it comes to advertising strategy. Politico has this example: “Voters in Columbus, Ohio, saw 30-second television ads for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney while watching ‘Wheel of Fortune’ on their CBS affiliate over three days in September. For Obama’s team, the order per spot cost $500. For Romney’s, the price tag on the order was more than five times steeper at $2,800 per ad.” What’s going on here? Politico explains, “Romney places his commercials on a week-to-week basis, rather than booking time well in advance, and typically pays more so that his ads don’t get preempted and to spare his campaign the hassle of haggling over time as prices rise.” Folks, this is the equivalent of an NFL team -- in terms of tactics and ad-buying strategy -- going up against a high school team. And here’s another example we’ve heard: For weeks, the Obama campaign has been hammering Romney on the “Big 10 Network.” Only until recently has the Romney campaign also decided to advertise on the channel, about five weeks AFTER the start of football season. In a close race, the little things matter.

*** This week’s 10 hottest markets: And by the way, here are this week’s 10 hottest advertising markets in the presidential contest (in terms of advertising points from Oct. 8-14):

1. Orlando, FL (Obama/1600, Romney/1600, ROF/775, Priorities/630, ROF/215)
2. Norfolk VA (Romney/1500, Obama/1300, ROF/1200, Priorities/350, NRA/300)
3. Cleveland, OH (Romney/1500, Obama/1500, AmCrossroads/1200, Priorities/400)
4. Denver, CO (Romney/1500, Obama/1500, AmCrossroads/1200, Priorities/300)
5. Toledo, OH (Romney/1500, Obama/1500, AmCrossroads/1100, Priorities/300, NRA/250)
6. Des Moines, IA (Romney/1500, Obama/1300, ROF/1000, Priorities/350, American Future Fund/360)
7. Roanoke, VA (Romney/1500, ROF/1500, Obama/750, Priorities/300, NRA/400)
8. Cedar Rapids, IA (Romney/1500, Obama/1300, ROF/780, American Future Fund/415, Priorities/400)
9. Green Bay, WI (Romney/1500, ROF/1500, Obama/500, Priorities/500, NRA/400)
10. Tampa, FL (Romney/1,500, Obama/1500, ROF/675, NRA/250)

*** Combing with “47%” and Medicare: And speaking of ads, the Obama campaign is out with a new TV spot that combines Romney’s “47%” remark with the Ryan budget plan for Medicare. The ad concludes, “You’re no victim. You earned your benefits. Don’t let Mitt Romney take them away.”

*** Polling update: Latest polls: Gallup switched its tracking poll to likely voters and now has Romney leading 49-47%. Among registered voters, Obama leads 49-46%. In the states: OH: CNN/ORC has Obama up 51-47% among likely voters and up 53-43% among registered voters; NH: WMUR/University of New Hampshire has Obama up 47-41%, but Obama lead has shrunk from 15 points in the poll 10 days ago; PA: Siena has Obama up 43-40%.

*** On the trail: Romney spends another day in Ohio, hitting a town hall (with Chris Christie) in Mt. Vernon at 11:35 am ET, a restaurant visit in Delaware at 2:25 pm, and a rally in Sidney at 6:45 pm.

Countdown to VP debate: 1 day
Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 6 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 12 days
Countdown to Election Day: 27 days

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All eyes on Ohio -- and upcoming polling from the state… Both Obama (in Columbus) and Romney (in Cuyahoga Falls) stump in the Buckeye State today… Examining the enthusiasm gap… New Obama TV ad invokes Big Bird (but it’s not part of its battleground-state buy)… And Bill Clinton (in Nevada) and Chris Christie (in Ohio) hit the trail.

*** All eyes on Ohio: More than a week ago, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie predicted on “Meet the Press” that the entire narrative of the presidential contest would change after the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney. And White House senior adviser David Plouffe responded to Christie’s pronouncement this way: “If it’s going to fundamentally change, that means in seven or 10 days from now you’ll see states like Ohio tied, states like Iowa tied. Because that’s what really matters here.” After some of the first polls since that debate (including Pew), Christie -- who campaigns with Romney today -- looks pretty prescient. But the point Plouffe made is the important development to watch in the coming days. Will the polling out of Ohio and Iowa, especially the ones conducted a few days after the debate, show a dramatically different race? Or will they show, despite some tightening, that Obama still holds the advantage on those states? If Ohio is in Obama’s column, it is VERY difficult for Romney to get to 270 electoral votes; he can do it without Ohio, but it’s hard. We’ll find out later this week where things stand in the Buckeye State. 

*** Romney makes a big push in the Buckeye State: Speaking of Ohio, both Obama (in Columbus) and Romney (in Cuyahoga Falls with Christie) are holding rallies in the state. A big reason: Voter registration ends today in the state, so both sides are trying to expand their pool of voters. In fact, the New York Times writes that Romney is making a big push in Ohio over the next couple of days. “Ohio, whose 18 electoral votes are critical to Mr. Romney’s candidacy, has bedeviled him like no other battleground state. His prospects were so shaky two weeks ago that his advisers openly discussed the narrow path to winning the necessary 270 electoral votes without Ohio… But as the race for the White House takes on a new air of volatility after President Obama’s off-kilter debate performance last week … Mr. Romney is displaying new vigor in his fight for Ohio.” The biggest swing we saw in the Pew poll was Romney’s support in the Midwest, where he holds a 50%-44% lead over Obama among likely voters. Even a new poll out of Michigan shows Romney gaining ground on Obama (with the president up 48%-45% versus 47%-37% a month ago). Does that fade away in the days after the debate?

*** The enthusiasm gap: The aftermath from the debate couldn’t have come at a better time for Romney and a worse time for Obama. Why? Just look at the enthusiasm gap between the two parties BEFORE the debate. In our most recent NBC/WSJ poll -- which was released before the debate -- 79% of Republicans had high interest in the election, versus 73% of Democrats; 85% of seniors were high-interest voters, compared with 52% of those ages 18-34; and 73% of whites expressed high interest, versus 81% of blacks and 59% of Latinos. That’s why, even in our pre-debate poll, Obama and Romney were running virtually even among high-interest voters (Obama 49%, Romney 48%) and Obama’s lead among likely voters was three points (49%-46%) versus seven points among registered voters (51%-44%). And this enthusiasm gap is even more exaggerated in this new Pew survey which, for the first time, in a poll that does NOT weight by party I.D., has the GOP with a party I.D. advantage. While it’s unlikely the GOP does have an advantage in the Nov. election by as much as Pew shows, it does measure short-term enthusiasm boosts for a party. And that’s why Chicago shouldn’t comfort themselves too much in the fact that the Pew poll shows an electorate we’re unlikely to see vote in November. The fact remains: Republicans are more enthusiastic today about the election than they were last week and they already had an interest advantage going into last week.

*** Big Bird to the rescue? The Obama campaign is up with a sarcastic TV ad featuring Big Bird. “Bernie Madoff. Ken Lay. Dennis Kozlowski. Criminals. Gluttons of greed,” the ad goes. “And the evil genius who towered over them?” The ad then shows Big Bird. “Mitt Romney knows it’s not Wall Street you have to worry about, it’s Sesame Street.” But First Read can report that that the Big Bird ad is not part of the campaign’s battleground-state buy; rather, it’s airing on national cable/broadcast. But if was part of a real battleground-state effort, the Romney camp reminds us this quote from Obama back in 2008: "If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from. You make a big election about small things.” The RNC also gets into the Sesame Street act with its “Campaign Count.”

Charles Dharapak / AP

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney takes a picture for well-wishers after an unscheduled stop at a Chipotle restaurant in Denver, Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2012.

*** On the trail: Obama holds a rally at the Ohio State University in Columbus at 5:55 pm ET… Romney begins his day with an event in Van Meter, IA before heading to Ohio, where he stumps in Cuyahoga Falls with Chris Christie at 7:30 pm ET (Christie also has a solo event in Lordstown, OH)… Bill Clinton campaigns in Las Vegas for Obama at 6:30 pm ET…

Countdown to VP debate: 2 days
Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 7 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 13 days
Countdown to Election Day: 28 days

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Has the race fundamentally changed? We’ll get a better answer in the next few days… Romney to deliver foreign-policy speech in Virginia at 11:20 am ET… But where are the real foreign-policy differences between Romney and Obama?... The Obama camp -- with new TV ad and memo -- issues its rebuttal to Romney… Obama refers to his debate performance… His camp and DNC raked in $181 million in September… Romney moves to the middle – rhetorically… And Priorities USA’s latest TV ad.

*** Has the race changed? We all assume that the presidential contest has changed following last week’s debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney. The most recent sign: Gallup’s daily tracking, which had Obama up 50%-45% among registered voters in the three days before the debate, but shows the race tied 47%-47% in the three days after. But to see if the race has truly changed, we’re awaiting battleground-state polls conducted over the weekend through today -- to fully let the debate, job numbers, and everything else sink in. The body language from both campaigns suggests that the race did change; you’re seeing 1) a more confident Romney camp and 2) an Obama campaign with a greater sense of urgency. And if the upcoming polls show this, it will give Team Romney another shot in the arm, just like Obama got after the conventions. But it’s also very possible that the race hasn’t fundamentally changed, but simply tightened and is back to where everyone thought it would be six months ago. Where are the battleground states, polling wise by the end of this week? Is Ohio a margin-of-error contest, or is the president still ahead by 4-6 points? What about Wisconsin? Iowa? These are the three states where Romney had fallen far behind and needed to make up the most ground.

*** Talking foreign policy: After his strong debate performance last week and two weeks before the final presidential debate on foreign policy, Mitt Romney today will deliver a foreign-policy speech in Virginia attacking the Obama administration’s response to the unrest in the Middle East. “I know the president hopes for a safer, freer, and a more prosperous Middle East allied with the United States. I share this hope,” he will say at the Virginia Military Institute beginning at 11:20 am ET, per excerpts. “But hope is not a strategy. We cannot support our friends and defeat our enemies in the Middle East when our words are not backed up by deeds, when our defense spending is being arbitrarily and deeply cut, when we have no trade agenda to speak of, and the perception of our strategy is not one of partnership, but of passivity.” Romney also will use his address to criticize the administration's response to the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya, which killed four Americans, including the U.S. ambassador. “This latest assault cannot be blamed on a reprehensible video insulting Islam… No, as the Administration has finally conceded, these attacks were the deliberate work of terrorists who use violence to impose their dark ideology on others.”

*** Yet where are the real policy differences? But according to the excerpts of the speech, almost every policy Romney will call for -- tough sanctions on Iran, withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2014, a two-state solution between the Israelis and Palestinians, free trade, vigorously going after the terrorists in Libya -- has been pursued by the Obama administration. (The one exception we can see is Romney’s call to arm the Syrian rebels, but the CIA already appears to be doing this covertly.) Indeed, the New York Times today notes that Romney “has yet to fill in many of the details of how he would conduct policy toward the rest of the world, or to resolve deep ideological rifts within the Republican Party and his own foreign policy team. It is a disparate and politely fractious team of advisers that includes warring tribes of neoconservatives, traditional strong-defense conservatives and a band of self-described ‘realists’ who believe there are limits to the degree the United States can impose its will.” The difference Romney appears to be attempting to outline is one of tone and style -- not substance.

Lynne Sladky / AP

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, right, waves as he arrives with his wife Ann at a campaign rally, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012, in Port St. Lucie, Fla.

*** The Obama camp’s rebuttal to Romney: Meanwhile, the Obama camp is countering Romney’s foreign-policy speech with a TV ad it’s airing only in Virginia (so it can get into today’s coverage of the speech), which notes the criticism that Romney’s foreign trip and his initial statement to the embassy attacks received. The ad’s kicker: “If this is how he handles the world now, just think what Mitt Romney might do as president.” The campaign also issues a memo stating: “The fact is that Barack Obama has one of the strongest national security records of any President in generations – he has decimated al Qaeda’s leadership, taken out Osama bin Laden, ended the war in Iraq, provided unparalleled support to Israel, produced unprecedented pressure on Iran, strengthened our alliances, and restored our standing in the world.” It continues, “In contrast, Mitt Romney has, throughout this campaign, raised more questions than answers about what he’d actually do as president. He supported the Iraq war and said that removing all of our troops from Iraq was ‘tragic,’ he called Russia - not al-Qaeda - our ‘number one geopolitical foe,’ and he said that he wouldn’t have set a timeline to end the war in Afghanistan.” That said, the foreign-policy advantage the White House THOUGHT it had a month ago is now in question. Every day, a new question arises on how the security situation was handled in Benghazi.

*** Obama refers to his debate performance: At a Los Angeles fundraiser last night, per NBC’s Ali Weinberg, President Obama alluded to his debate performance -- his first public comments regarding his less-than-stellar showing. Praising his opening acts at the Nokia Theater, which included Stevie Wonder, Jon Bon Jovi and Katy Perry, Obama said, “These guys perform flawlessly night after night.” He then added, waiting a beat for comedic timing, “I can’t always say the same.” He then said this about his 2008 campaign, “Everybody always remembers the victory, but they don’t always remember the bumps in the road; things always look good in retrospect. But in the middle of it, we were -- we made all kinds of mistakes. We goofed up, I goofed up, but the American people carried us forward.”

*** Team Obama hauled in $181 million last month: For Team Obama, Friday’s job numbers helped soften the blow from the first debate. And so did its fundraising haul for September. On Saturday, the Obama campaign announced that it and the DNC had raised a whopping $181 million last month -- the largest monthly haul of the cycle by either side. We haven’t seen fundraising numbers for Team Romney, but the Obama/DNC haul suggests that its grassroots army is beginning to flex its muscles.

*** Moving to the middle -- rhetorically: Over the weekend, Politico reported that the Romney camp is running a radio ad in Ohio pitching Romney as a bipartisan fixer who will work across the aisle. And this epitomizes the shift we’ve seen from Romney in the last week since the debate. His policies haven’t necessarily moved to the middle, but his rhetoric has. This began at the debate. Tone is everything when trying to straddle ideology and electability. And Romney, for the first time this campaign, appears to have found his voice on this front. And speaking of finding his voice, another notable move over the weekend: Romney is now sharing personal stories.

*** Priorities’ latest TV ad: The pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action is up with a TV ad hitting Romney on education. “Take away his toys and he’ll play with a stick. Take away their bikes and they’ll still find a way to get where they’re going,” the ad goes. “But if you take away early childhood education, slash K-12 funding, and cut college aid for middle class families they won’t go far. Yet that’s exactly what Mitt Romney wants to do to pay for a two hundred and fifty thousand dollar tax break for multi-millionaires. If Mitt Romney wins, the middle class loses.”

*** On the trail: Obama is out in California, where he announces the establishment of the César E. Chávez national monument and where he hits fundraisers in San Francisco… Romney gives his aforementioned foreign-policy speech and then holds a rally in Newport News, VA at 5:20 pm ET… Jill Biden campaigns in Pennsylvania… Paul Ryan stumps in Ohio and Michigan… Later this week, both Obama and Romney campaign in Ohio on Tuesday, and the VP debate is on Thursday.

Countdown to VP debate: 3 days
Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 8 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day: 29 days

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Mitt Romney is fighting to earn a new look from voters with 30 days remaining until the election, as President Barack Obama looks to close the window on his Republican challenger. 

Romney, the Republican presidential nominee, has hopes of building momentum off of his strong debate performance this week, in which he generally outperformed Obama with energetic and crisp arguments.

But a top spokesman for the president vowed Sunday that Obama wouldn't allow Romney a repeat performance in their second showdown.

"It's not rocket science to believe the president was disappointed in the expectations he has for himself," former White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said on "Meet the Press" of Obama's debate performance, which was panned as lethargic and lacking in aggression.

Of the second debate, scheduled for Oct. 16, Gibbs said, "I think you're going to see a very engaged president that is ready and willing to call out whichever Mitt Romney shows up."

Romney "walked over" Obama in Denver, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, one of Romney's erstwhile primary opponents, contended. But Gingrich also acknowledged that the GOP nominee had "changed" from the primary, when he vowed to cut taxes for individuals in all income brackets. (Romney said in Wednesday's debate that, in his reform plan, the wealthy wouldn't end up paying any less in taxes.)

Whether Romney has made up much ground versus Obama hasn't yet been fully reflected in polls conducted since the debate. The Republican hopeful entered the matchup trailing the president, and must make up ground — especially in battleground states like Ohio — if Romney is to have any hope of winning on Nov. 6.

"The real question to me, of this campaign, is, can the Romney campaign take this moment and run with it?" asked Mike Murphy, a longtime Republican consultant with ties to Romney.

Romney won the endorsement of a newspaper in one such swing state, Nevada, as the editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal said Romney "has the principles and experience needed to put America back on the road to prosperity."

But Obama's case for re-election was bolstered Friday by a new jobs report that showed the unemployment rate at 7.8 percent in September, clearing the psychological barrier of 8 percent, above which the unemployment rate had sat for months. 

"I think it was a significant help to the president," Gingrich said of that report.

Obama's advantage over Romney was fueled partly by improving perceptions of the economy, which could be cemented by the new employment data. If nothing else, the president will have a new cudgel to wield against Romney in their next debate matchup. 

Both Romney and Obama will leave it to their running mates this week to carry the banner on Thursday, at the vice presidential debate. 

"I know Vice President Biden is anxious and ready to do this," Gibbs said of Biden's impending debate versus Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice presidential nominee.

In the meanwhile, both the president and Romney aren't taking the weekend off; instead, they're both on the campaign trail this Sunday. Romney will hold a rally this afternoon in Florida, while Obama attends a "30 days to victory" fundraising concert tonight in Los Angeles.