Updated at 4:50 pm ET In a split decision, the Supreme Court on Monday upheld one part of a tough Arizona immigration law, but struck down other sections.

The part of the law the justices upheld requires police officers stopping someone to make efforts to verify the person’s immigration status with the federal government.

Text of the decision (PDF)

The justices struck down three other parts of the law:

• One making it a crime for an illegal immigrant to work or to seek work in Arizona;
• One which authorized state and local officers to arrest people without a warrant if the officers have probable cause to believe a person is an illegal immigrant;
• And one that made it a state requirement for immigrants to register with the federal government.

"Arizona may have understandable frustrations with the problems caused by illegal immigration" while the federal government tries to enforce immigration law, but the state "may not pursue policies that undermine federal law," wrote Justice Anthony Kennedy in the majority opinion.

The U.S Supreme Court annoucines decisions on June 25.

The court said that there are several ways for state officials to cooperate with the federal government on immigration enforcement, such as by responding to federal requests for information about when a particular non-citizen will be released from state custody.

"But the unilateral state action" to arrest and detain suspected illegal immigrants "goes far beyond these measures, defeating any need for real cooperation" between the state and the federal government.

Monday's decision is only a prelude to further litgation over what now remains of the Arionza statute.

Yuri Gripas / Reuters

Members of the media gather June 25 for a stakeout in front of U.S. Supreme Court in Washington.

NBC’s Pete Williams reported that “there are other lawsuits against this law. There are several civil liberties groups suing in Arizona, claiming that this law is racial profiling, and those cases have yet to work their way through the courts.”

Monday's decision was a partial victory for President Obama who had criticized the Arizona law, saying it “threatened to undermine basic notions of fairness that we cherish as Americans.” 

Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney said Monday, "I would have preferred to see the Supreme Court give more latitude to the states not less. And there are states now under this decision have less authority, less latitude to enforce immigration laws."

He added that immigration policy has "become a muddle. But it didn’t have to be this way. The president promised in his campaign that in his first year he would take on immigration ... put in place a long term program to care for those who want to come here legally, to deal with illegal immigration, to deal with securing our borders. All these things he was going to in his first year he had a Democrat house and a Democrat senate but he didn’t do it. And because he didn’t act, states and localities have tried to act and now the courts trying to get into it and sort things out and it’s a muddle"

Attorney General Eric Holder said in a statement that "I remain concerned about the impact" of the part of the law that requires police to attempt  to check the immigration status of people they stop when they have reason to suspect that the person is in the United States unlawfully.

Holder said the Justice Department "will continue to vigorously enforce federal prohibitions against racial and ethnic discrimination.  We will closely monitor the impact of S.B. 1070 to ensure compliance with federal immigration law and with applicable civil rights laws, including ensuring that law enforcement agencies and others do not implement the law in a manner that has the purpose or effect of discriminating against the Latino or any other community."

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Lamar Smith, R-Texas, said flatly that Monday's ruling was a defeat for those who seek stricter enforcement of immigration laws.

Smith said the decision "limits the ability of states to protect their citizens and communities from illegal immigrants. It is the federal government’s job to enforce our immigration laws, but President Obama has willfully neglected this responsibility. This dereliction of duty has left states to address the crime, job loss, and other costs of illegal immigration."

He added, “Unfortunately, under this Administration, today’s ruling essentially puts an end to immigration enforcement since the states no longer can step in and fill the void created by the Obama administration."

The Justice Department had moved quickly in 2010 to block enforcement of the law. The administration had argued that the Constitution vests exclusive authority over immigration matters with the federal government, not the states, and that where the federal government has pre-empted state action, no state can intrude on that federal turf.

The majority on Monday essentially agreed with that argument.

In the oral argument before the high court on April 25, Solicitor General Donald Verrilli said Arizona did not have the power to exclude or remove a person who is in the state illegally.

Although some critics of the law have contended that it would inevitably lead to targeting of Latinos simply because of appearance, speaking Spanish, or having a Spanish accent, Verrilli told the justices on April 25 “We're not making any allegation about racial or ethnic profiling in the case.”

Since enforcement of the law had been blocked by a federal judge soon after its enactment, the Obama administration did not present a record to the Supreme Court of the law leading to incidents of ethnic profiling of Latinos in the state.

Joining Kennedy's majority opinion were Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer and Sonia Sotomayor.

Justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito concurred in part and dissented in part.

Justice Elena Kagan, who served as Obama’s solicitor general, had recused herself from the Arizona case.

The high court’s decision comes just days after Obama announced a new administration policy of not deporting illegal immigrants under age 30 who came to the United States, or were brought to the United States before reaching age 16, who are in school, or have graduated from high school, gotten a general education certificate, or are military veterans. The illegal immigrants covered by the new administration policy will be permitted to apply for authorization to work legally in the United States. 

Commerce Secretary John Bryson resigned from his position on Thursday in the wake of a health scare that prompted media scrutiny.

In a letter to department colleagues, Bryson said that he had informed President Barack Obama of his resignation, and said that Rebecca Blank, who's been serving as acting secretary since he began a medical leave of absence on June 11, would continue to serve in that role.

"The work that you do to help America's entrepreneurs and businesses build our economy and create jobs is more important now than ever and I have come to the conclusion that I need to step down to prevent distractions from this critical mission," Bryson said.

Federal officials say the 68-year-old secretary suffered several seizures while driving back home in California on the weekend of June 8-10. Those seizures reportedly contributed to two automobile accidents, and he allegedly fled the scene of one.

"I want to extend my deepest thanks and appreciation to John for his service over the past months, and wish him and his family the very best," the president said in a statement, in which he noted he accepted Bryson's resignation on Wednesday evening.

"As Secretary, John fought tirelessly for our nation’s businesses and workers, helping to bolster our exports and promote American manufacturing and products at home and abroad.  John has proven himself an effective and distinguished leader throughout his career in both the public and private sectors, from his success in the business world to his work leading on issues in the renewable energy industry."

News of the accidents wasn't made known until the following Monday, and the president reportedly hadn't been briefed about the incidents for some time after they occurred.

Bryson took a leave of absence after the accidents; he first became commerce secretary in October of 2011.

Whether Obama will bother to nominate an immediate successor to Bryson is unclear. With the impending election season nearing, it would be tough to steer a nominee through a divided Senate, and a new secretary might be named pending the outcome of November's election.

Obama said we was confident in Blank to continue serving as acting secretary.

Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Mitt Romney walks to an awaiting car after walking off of his campaign plane at McCarran International Airport on May 29, 2012 in Las Vegas.

Updated 9:45 p.m. ET -- Mitt Romney won the Republican primary in Texas on Tuesday, a victory that gives him more than the 1,144 delegates needed to secure his party's presidential nomination.

Following a bruising primary season earlier this year that extended longer than many Republicans had hoped, NBC News projected that Romney had finally won the necessary delegates to secure the nomination, though the former Massachusetts governor won’t earn the official nod until August's Republican National Convention in Tampa.

The race for the Republican nomination has been largely over since the April 3 primary in Wisconsin. Romney's win in that contest prompted the eventual withdrawals of his remaining rivals: Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul. It also hastened the onset of President Barack Obama's own re-election offensive versus Romney.

"I am honored that Americans across the country have given their support to my candidacy and I am humbled to have won enough delegates to become the Republican Party's 2012 presidential nominee," Romney said in a statement Tuesday evening. "Our party has come together with the goal of putting the failures of the last three and a half years behind us."

Romney spent the evening at a closed-doors fundraiser in Las Vegas with Gingrich and reality television star Donald Trump.

While conservatives appear to have rallied behind the former Massachusetts governor, the long campaign season was not without its consequences for Romney.

The Republican has been fundraising aggressively to make up for money spent during the nomination battle, which depleted, in part, his relative financial parity versus Obama. 

But more significantly, the Obama campaign has been turning some of the most stinging attacks on Romney from other Republicans and revived them for use in the general election.

"I have no illusions about the difficulties of the task before us. But whatever challenges lie ahead, we will settle for nothing less than getting America back on the path to full employment and prosperity," Romney said in his victory statement. "On November 6, I am confident that we will unite as a country and begin the hard work of fulfilling the American promise and restoring our country to greatness.”

Case-in-point: the Obama campaign has spent much of the past two weeks attacking Romney's experience at Bain Capital, the private equity firm Romney had co-founded. That is a line of attack first advanced by Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry in January.

Romney's continued advantage versus Obama, though, lies with an economic recovery that still rests on precarious footing.

May's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that half of Americans judged last month's jobs report as unsatisfactory. That dampened optimism for a recovery -- and, in turn, for Obama -- could become a potent political weapon for Romney, especially if continued economic unrest in Europe slows the pace of the recovery in the U.S.

The House narrowly passed on Friday the Interest Rate Reduction Act by a vote of 215-195 -- largely along party lines. The White House has already threatened to veto the legislation.

The bill, introduced by House Republicans, would postpone, for a year, the doubling of interest rates on student loans to 6.8 percent on July 1st. Those interest rates currently sit at 3.4 percent as a result of a five-year bill passed by Democrats in 2007.  

The Republican's bill would offset the almost $6 billion price-tag for the year-long interest rate freeze by taking money from programs established by President Barack Obama's health care overhaul -- including those for prevention, wellness, and public health.

Democrats oppose that plan, saying they would rather pay for the bill by taking away subsidies for oil companies.

The legislation now goes to the Senate, which is expected to pass its own version in May. After that, both chambers will likely end up going to conference on the bill, to negotiate a way to fund the proposal that's amenable to both sides.

One of the more fascinating developments in the last two weeks on Capitol Hill has been the degree to which House Speaker John Boehner has gone after President Obama and helped to try and frame Obama's general election matchup against Mitt Romney.

Alex Wong / Getty Images

House Speaker John Boehner hastily arranged a late afternoon press conference on Wednesday to announce that the GOP would take up a student loans interest rate extension bill on Friday that would be paid for by stripping $6 billion from monies used to fund Obama's health care law.

After endorsing Romney on April 17, Boehner started the attack the very next day, accusing Obama of being "AWOL" for the last 6 months and on a "constant campaign." Boehner pushed Obama on his handling of the economy, asking, "Where's he been, what are his ideas?” and was critical of the president  for “failing to lead.”

On Wednesday, Boehner went after Obama for his recent trips to the Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina saying they were "campaign theatrics."

The Republican speaker took his criticism a step further Thursday morning, when he criticized Obama for using taxpayer funds for "campaign speeches" before launching into a blistering assault saying the president was falling short by not leading on jobs legislation, student loan interest rates, gas prices, the national drug shortage -- all the while going around the country drumming up "fake issues."

"This is the biggest job in the world and I've never seen a president make it smaller," Boehner said. "The president keeps attempting to invent these fake fights because he doesn't have a record of success or a positive agenda for our country."

He continued, "It's as simple as this, the emperor has no clothes. They can't talk about their record on jobs because their policies have made the economy worse. They can't talk about their record on spending because the president's policies have added 5 trillion dollars to the national debt. And they can't talk about their record on gas prices because gas prices have more than doubled on the president's watch."

NBC News today asked Boehner if he was in contact with the Romney campaign and coordinating these types of attacks. He said it had "been awhile” since he spoke to team Romney and that he "made it a habit not to talk to the candidate or the campaigns during this process." When pressed if he was in fact doing Romney’s bidding, Boehner answered, "I'm doing my own."

While Boehner may not be frequently speaking with Romney’s Boston-based campaign, he significantly assisted Romney this week by announcing he was putting a GOP version of student loan legislation on the floor. This past Tuesday. Romney stated that he supported extending student loan rates at 3.4 percent, but wasn't specific on how he’d pay for it.

Even though this issue had rarely been mentioned by House Republicans recently, Boehner hastily arranged a late afternoon press conference on Wednesday to announce that the GOP would take up a student loans interest rate extension bill on Friday that would be paid for by stripping $6 billion from monies used to fund Obama's health care law. Romney was then free to support Boehner's bill and a Republican option that made the student loan issue deficit neutral.

A GOP aide speaking on the condition of anonymity told NBC News that, last week, one of Romney’s policy aides gave the House GOP leadership a “heads up” that the campaign was going to support the extension of student loans at 3.4 percent. Upon hearing this news, the House GOP formulated a plan that would pay for an extension of the loans that wouldn’t add to the debt and inevitably gave Romney something to back that was a GOP alternative.

One GOP House member told NBC News that Boehner being Romney’s “attack dog” would be positive for the party: “He’s certainly easier to understand than Romney and makes the case against the president in a more defined way. It’ll help us.”

While the presidential race begins to heat up, this week could be remembered for when House Speaker John Boehner ratcheted up the rhetoric went into his own “campaign."

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) demanded on Thursday that President Obama's re-election campaign reimburse the Treasury for the cost of a two-day trip to three swing states.

At his weekly press conference on Capitol Hill, the GOP speaker accused the president of essentially campaigning during his trip this week, which took him to three college campuses in three swing states to talk, ostensibly, about student loan interest rates.

"This week the president traveled across the country on the taxpayer's dime at a cost of $179,000 an hour insisting that Congress fix a problem that we already working on. Frankly I think this is beneath the dignity of the White House," Boehner said.

Richard Drew / AP

House Speaker John Boehner demanded on Thursday that President Obama's re-election campaign reimburse the Treasury for the cost of a two-day trip to three swing states.

"And for the president to make a campaign issue about this and then to travel to three battleground states and go to three large college campus on taxpayer's money to try to make this a political issue is pathetic," he added. "His campaign ought to be reimbursing the treasury for the cost of this trip.  Our country is facing some major economic and fiscal challenges, yet here's the president wasting time on a fake fight to try to gain his own re-election."

The president's trip was directed toward student loan reforms, making it official White House travel. The Obama campaign reimburses the government for any of the president's political trip.

But Obama's journey, which took him to the three swing states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina, also held undeniable political significance. The president assailed Republicans during the speeches, and the trip was coordinated to push a weeklong outreach message to young voters, a key part of the winning Obama coalition in 2008.

"As in other administrations, we'll follow all of the rules and regulations to ensure that the committee pays for whatever is required for the president and the first lady to travel to political events," said Jim Messina, the Obama campaign manager, last night in a conference call. "These are very specific rules that are similar to what Bush and Clinton and other presidents have had to do, and they're very clear and we will abide by all of those in our usual way."

Republicans have been eager to drive a message of Obama as the "campaigner-in-chief." The president's campaign is unlikely to reimburse the government for the cost of the travel, but the Republican attacks, led by Boehner, mark the beginning of an effort to engage in the general election fight against Obama.

Chris Keane / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich speaks at a rally on the night of the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware primaries in Concord, North Carolina April 24, 2012.

Newt Gingrich will suspend his campaign next week, ending his pursuit of the presidency, but almost certainly not his life in the national spotlight.

NBC News learned that Gingrich will suspend his campaign on May 1, and may well endorse Mitt Romney, his nemesis throughout the primary season.

But if one thing seems unassailably true about the end of Newt Gingrich's bid for the presidency, it's that we haven't seen the end of Newt Gingrich.

The former House speaker's career has, if nothing else, been marked by its series of peaks and valleys. Gingrich ends his campaign for the Republican nomination exploring the depths of one such valley: his campaign wracked with debt, his political stature at an all-time low within the GOP, and his private business seriously threatened.

But like a cat with nine lives, throughout his career, Gingrich has shown a penchant for achieving unthinkable political resurrections. While he might have cashed in several lives during this campaign -- and had certainly spent more in his preceding political life -- it seems unthinkable that the public has seen the last of this man.

“We had an avalanche fall on us, and Newt dug himself out. And that's the story of his entire career,” said Rick Tyler, the spokesman for a pro-Gingrich super PAC. Tyler was a longtime aide to the former House speaker before having joined a mass resignation of senior staff last June -- a particular low point for the candidate and his campaign.

Those mass resignations came after a rocky rollout for Gingrich, during which he criticized a controversial budget drafted by House Republicans. Gingrich also struggled with the revelation of a six-figure line of credit he’d maintained with the jeweler Tiffany’s, and an ill-timed Greek vacation he took with his wife Callista, an omnipresent figure on the campaign trail.

His campaign was considered all but dead after June 9, 2011 -- the day of those resignations. But students of his career could just as easily draw parallels with other scenes from the Gingrich political biography, moments when it also appeared his luck had run out.

“I think there's a little bit of Richard Nixon in Newt Gingrich. His political career was pronounced dead as many times as well,” said Craig Shirley, the GOP public affairs veteran with close ties to Gingrich. Shirley, a biographer of Reagan, is currently working on a political biography of Gingrich.

“He likes the high wire in the same way that Nixon did,” Shirley said of Gingrich. “They all like the high wire, but there's some who handle it better than others.”

There are many instances when, over the last three and a half decades, Gingrich had appeared to fall out of favor with both Republicans and voters at large. There were his failed early bids for Congress in the 1970s and clashes with Republican leaders throughout the 1980s and early 1990s.

His biggest political achievement came in 1994, when Gingrich led Republicans to win back a majority in the House for the first time since 1954. But his tenure was well-documented for its internal and external tumult, and led to an attempted coup toward its end. Gingrich resigned amid growing Republican anger toward his leadership following the elections of 1998 – a dramatic development used to great effect by Mitt Romney’s campaign throughout the 2012 primaries.

That resignation might have otherwise meant the end for any other political figure, but the story of Newt Gingrich has always been a story of reinvention and resurrection.

In the more than 10 years since leaving Congress, Gingrich took on the persona of a party elder. He became a commentator on FOX News, a lucrative opportunity, and made millions more through consulting and the establishment of “Newt, Inc.,” the consortium of interest groups built in his name that has pervaded Washington.

His brand had been rehabilitated sufficiently enough by 2011 to wage a credible bid for the Republican presidential nomination, but Gingrich’s campaign was marked by the same turbulence that had defined his entire career.

Gingrich soldiered on following the June resignations, only to re-emerge in late November 2011 as the top choice of Republicans in the first nominating contest in Iowa, at least according to polls. But his presidential aspirations bottomed out again after suffering an onslaught of negative advertising from the Romney campaign.

Undeterred, Gingrich rebounded again to shock Romney in the South Carolina primary – the first time a candidate had won the influential primary since its inception without continuing to become the eventual Republican nominee.

Then came the Florida primary several days later, where Romney again dispensed with the former House speaker by using a barrage of critical advertisements. It was Gingrich’s last true gasp as a candidate. He retreated to Georgia, the state he had served as a member of Congress, and hitched his candidacy to winning that state – and only – on Super Tuesday.

Even in nearby Mississippi and Alabama several weeks later, Gingrich lost those primaries to Rick Santorum. His inability to score a meaningful win fueled perceptions of Gingrich as a kind of “ghost candidate,” even though he defiantly vowed to push forward with his campaign through the August convention in Tampa, where he would conceivably challenge Romney in a messy floor fight for the nomination.

His relationship with FOX lies in tatters following the publication of a report in which Gingrich made critical comments of the network before a private crowd. More significantly, the Center for Health Transformation – the crown jewel of Gingrich’s personal empire – was forced to file for bankruptcy in the former speaker’s absence. His campaign is millions in debt, and CHT’s bankruptcy will likely cost Gingrich some personal wealth, too.

Gingrich’s path to redemption – again – is steep, possibly steeper than at any previous point in his career.

That path begins with a speech at the Tampa convention this summer meant to unify Republicans behind Romney, despite the personal animosity over time between Romney and Gingrich, said Shirley.

“Newt has the ability to arrest people because he’s interesting,” said Rick Tyler of the attributes that might help Gingrich accomplish another turnaround. “That didn’t translate into people wanting him to be president.”

Fans of the former speaker assert that it would be inconceivable for Gingrich, at the least an irrepressible gadfly in Washington, to fade from public view.

When will Americans finally see Gingrich’s final act as a public figure?

“I guess when he's getting last rites,” Shirley said.

Brian Snyder / REUTERS

Supporters cheer as they wait for a speech by Mitt Romney in Manchester, N.H. on April 24, 2012.

Updated 9:48 p.m. ET - Mitt Romney declared victory in his quest to become the Republican presidential nominee on Tuesday and kicked off his general election campaign against President Barack Obama in earnest following a clean sweep of primaries in the Northeast.

Romney's performance in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island allowed him to cap a tumultuous GOP primary cycle that extended longer than many expected. Romney's march toward the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination appeared, at this point, to be all but a formality.

And, eager to begin prosecuting his case against Obama, Romney took a victory lap in the general election swing state of New Hampshire -- rather than appearing in any of the states hosting nominating contests tonight or in the future -- to declare, "a better America begins tonight."

"Tonight I can say thank you, America," Romney told a cheering crowd in the Granite State. "After 43 primaries and caucuses, many long days and more than a few long nights, I can say with confidence -- and gratitude -- that you have given me a great honor and solemn responsibility. And, together, we are going to win on Nov. 6."

Romney faced only token opposition from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul in Tuesday's contests. The former Massachusetts governor had all but assumed the status of presumptive Republican nominee two weeks ago, when his principal conservative rival, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, suspended his campaign.

Major Republican figures had finally begun to rally around Romney and offer their endorsements since that point, but he must still work toward winning the 1,144 delegates needed to formally secure the nomination. Romney had entered Tuesday having secured 698 of the necessary delegates, according to Associated Press projections, putting him on pace toward crossing the threshold in late May or early June.

Tonight's primaries may also signal the last gasp for Gingrich, as well, who had pinned his hopes of continuing his campaign on winning Delaware. But the ex-speaker offered no hint as to his future plans in brief remarks.

"I think it's a very substantial mistake for Gov. Romney to give a general election speech tonight in New Hampshire," Gingrich told reporters Tuesday. "He is not the nominee. I think it's a little insulting to people in these states." But he did indicate at a North Carolina event that "over the next few days, we're going to look realistically at where we're at."

Romney spent the evening focusing not on his remaining primary challenges, and instead trained his sights instead on the task of unseating Obama this fall.

"This has already been a long campaign, but many Americans are just now beginning to focus on the choice before the country. In the days ahead, I look forward to spending time with many of you personally. I want to hear what’s on your mind, hear about your concerns, and learn about your families," he said, promising to tell voters more about himself.

For Romney, that re-introduction is a delicate and important task. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that more Americans -- 36 percent -- had a negative impression of Romney than the 33 percent who said they viewed the former Massachusetts governor positively.

On tests of whether he or Obama is seen as more easygoing and likable, or more in touch with the middle class, the president badly outpaces Romney.

Mindful of that, Romney kept his speech keyed in closely on pocketbook issues, warning of "diversions and distractions" from the central issue of the economy.

"It's still about the economy, and we're not stupid," Romney said, referencing the famous political maxim first employed by Bill Clinton's presidential campaign in 1992.

Obama's re-election team has been eager to reuse fodder from the primary season against the former Massachusetts governor in the context of the general election, underscoring the urgency for Romney to put the GOP contest to bed.

"Mitt Romney has spent the past year out on the campaign trail tearing down the president with a negative message that even Republicans who have endorsed him have criticized," said Ben LaBolt, Obama's campaign spokesman. "This marks the end of that monologue. Now he must put his record and his agenda next to the president’s."

Although Santorum dropped out two weeks ago, he’s among the conservatives who are yet to have thrown their support to Romney. NBC News learned Tuesday that the two men will meet on May 4 at a to-be-determined destination, though the meeting wasn't expected to produce an immediate endorsement.

That Romney had not yet won an endorsement before the primary in the state that Santorum had represented in Congress suggests that the rift between conservatives and the presumptive nominee has not yet fully healed.

Gingrich's persistence poses a minor challenge to that effort to unify the party, though the former speaker hints that he may soon address his future as a candidate.

Paul is also promising to forge ahead with his own campaign, perhaps through the late May primary in his native Texas. But Romney might have won the delegates he needs by that point.

NBC's Andrew Rafferty contributed to this report.

Big stakes on Tuesday for Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich… Could Romney have written off Alabama and Mississippi (and focused instead on, say, Illinois)?... NBC’s updated delegate count: Romney 377, Santorum 146, Gingrich 112, and Paul 31… Paul admits his crowds haven’t translated at the ballot box… Is Obama’s good luck beginning to change?... New WaPo/ABC poll shows that gas prices have had an effect on his standing, while the killing of civilians in Afghanistan doesn’t help the mission there, either.

*** Big stakes on Tuesday: After the weekend contests where Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum fought to a delegate draw -- with Santorum winning Kansas, and with Romney winning Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and more delegates out of Wyoming -- we now turn to Tuesday's primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. And the stakes, once again, are pretty high for the candidates. Romney sneaking out a win in either of the contests would prove that he can win in the South and that conservative GOP voters are beginning to coalesce around his candidacy. But losses in them would confirm that Romney continues to have problems with these voters and -- more importantly -- that the primary season will last through April if not longer. For Santorum, wins in both Alabama and Mississippi would prove that he's the chief conservative alternative to Romney, and that he has the momentum to keep this race going. But losing them would suggest his campaign is running out of gas. And for Gingrich, winning both states would keep his candidacy alive, but losses in these southern states would reveal that he’s become a political zombie, propped up solely by Sheldon Adelson and the pro-Gingrich Super PAC. Those are the stakes for tomorrow.

Don Emmert / AFP - Getty Images

Republican presidential candidates Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich now turn to Tuesday's primaries in Alabama and Mississippi.

*** Could Romney have written off Alabama and Mississippi? And right now, we have no idea how tomorrow’s races will play out. The polling has been all over the place, while last week’s Super Tuesday contests in Tennessee and Oklahoma suggest that Santorum should be the favorite and Romney and Gingrich the underdogs. If Romney ends up losing both primaries, it will raise this question: Did he make a mistake by campaigning too much -- and thus raising the stakes -- in a region where he’s struggled. After all, he’s campaigned aggressively in both Mississippi and Alabama (with comedian Jeff Foxworthy today), and he and the pro-Romney Super PAC have dropped nearly $2 million in advertising in these two states, vastly outspending the competition. Yes, win or lose, Romney is likely to pick up delegates in these states. But he also could have written them off and campaigned instead in Illinois, where a new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll shows him narrowly leading Santorum, 35%-31%. It appears Romney’s over-performance in both public and private polls in Tennessee convinced the campaign that it had a shot in the Volunteer State only to lose it by a bigger margin than any late poll had predicted. Just something to keep in mind.

*** Updated delegate count: Over the weekend, according to NBC News, Rick Santorum won 36 delegates (33 in Kansas and three in Wyoming), while Mitt Romney won 35 (25 in the island territories, seven in Kansas, and three additional delegates in Wyoming). That brings the NBC delegate to Romney 377, Santorum 146, Gingrich 112, and Paul 31. Remember, our delegate count is based on what the local and state parties are doing -- not simply allocating blindly if the process between the caucus and the state convention is vastly different, which in many cases it is.

*** Paul’s crowds haven’t translated at the ballot box: By the way, Paul has still yet to win a contest. And he addressed this on Saturday while in Missouri. “Some days I wished I could understand exactly why these crowds of three and four and sometimes five thousand people coming out doesn’t translate into more votes,” he said, per NBC’s Anthony Terrell. “I’m just wondering, why that happens. The one thing I know is the revolution is alive and well and they will not stop us!” The words of a candidate who is starting to have doubts as to why he’s still running…

*** On the trail: On his 65^th birthday today, Romney is in Alabama, where he campaigns with comedian Jeff Foxworthy in Mobile… And Gingrich and Santorum both stump in both Mississippi and Alabama, where they both attend a Gulf Coast Energy Summit in Biloxi, MS and a state GOP event in Birmingham, AL.

*** Is Obama’s luck beginning to change? President Obama has been a pretty lucky man these first few months of 2012. The U.S. economy and the labor market have been picking up steam; Republicans appeared to have overplayed their hands on social issues (like contraception and abortion); and the GOP primary race has damaged the party’s brand. But in the past 24 hours, we’ve received a couple of reminders that luck -- especially regarding things outside your control -- can change. The first: a new Washington Post/ABC poll showing that the rising gas prices seemed to have dented Obama’s standing. “Disapproval of President Obama’s handling of the economy is heading higher — alongside gasoline prices — as a record number of Americans now give the president “strongly” negative reviews on the 2012 presidential campaign’s most important issue,” the Washington Post writes of its poll, which has Obama’s approval rating now at 46% and has Romney up by two points in a head to head. Although gas prices do change (and the price of oil today has fallen), they do impact a president’s approval rating. And let’s not forget the GOP’s message discipline on this issue; does an hour go by without Republicans putting out a hit on Obama and gas prices? *** UPDATE *** Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz emails First Read to argue that, per his observations, high gas prices really don't impact a president's approval rating.

*** Less and less support for the war in Afghanistan? And then there are the issues overseas, which can change a president’s fortunes overnight. Keep a close eye on how the news that a U.S. Army sergeant killed at least 16 civilians (nine of them children) in Afghanistan could change opinion on that issue. And this comes after some in the U.S. military mistakenly burned the Koran, and it comes as the Obama administration is hoping to make an orderly exit from Afghanistan. The political reaction we’ve heard from both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum on these civilian killings suggests that there is less and less American support for the war there. What little appetite the public had for Afghanistan might get even smaller.

Countdown to Alabama, Hawaii, and Mississippi: 1 day
Countdown to Election Day: 239 days

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