As the 2012 general election heats up, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the return of issues from the 2008 election including President Obama’s former pastor Jeremiah Wright and Obama’s birth certificate and how they might affect voters in November.

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Edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

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NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss how pollsters determine who is a likely voter and whether measuring likely voters or registered voters gives a better picture of the electoral map.

Thanks to Da Noid for the question! Don't forget you can ask us questions on Facebook and Twitter...and follow us @mmurraypolitics and @DomenicoNBC! 

Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

NBC's Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Chief Justice Correspondent Pete Williams discuss how the recent health care reform arguments affect the 2012 presidential race, and if the Supreme Court's decision could change the Massachusetts health care law.

Thanks to newdayDAWNING...RETURNED, winemaker-4308406 and Nathan-1680585 for their questions!

Video edited by NBC's Morgan Parmet.

TRANSCRIPT:

MARK MURRAY: Welcome to Inside the Boiler Room and Domenico, after the Supreme Court's oral arguments on health care, the issue of that and the politics are big for a lot of our viewers. We've got two questions.

One from newdayDAWNING who asks, "If the Justice rule against the healthcare law, which side benefits in the upcoming election?"

We got a related question from winemaker who asks, "If Obamacare is found to be unconstitutional, what does this legislation do for the image of the President?"

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yeah, I think the politics of this are actually pretty tough to figure out. I think there's no question that if you put your historian hat on and this is struck down, that that's a body blow to the President's legacy.

The fact is that this is the signature accomplishment, the signature achievement. Now, but does that mean that he won't win reelection? That's the complicated part of this. I think the fundamental question, the reset, for us to be able to say I'm not sure how much it will actually impact because we're losing sight of the fact that the most important issue is the economy. 

Unemployment, it is still is, all this other stuff that's happening below the surface. If unemployment is headed in a direction that appears to show that it's going down, that the economic indicators continue in a right direction for the country, then that's good for the President.

If it's the other way, then he's in a real fight and with a body blow on healthcare, maybe that deflates the base. 

MARK MURRAY: Domenico, I think you nailed it. Absolutely. I think it hurts his image. Of course, it actually hurts the whole Democratic Party’s image as well. This is something they’ve spent an entire year on. That members of their caucus ended up losing in the midterm elections because of it.

If the Supreme Court were to strike it down, it would be a huge blow to the progressive community. It's pretty much the liberal left which over the last 40-50 years has been trying for universal healthcare. But the politics, I don't think we have any idea. 

There also is the argument too on can Mitt Romney  actually seize on this politically against President Obama since he actually also supported a mandate in his own state. That mandate that Romney had in Massachusetts actually is a question that we ended up getting from Nathan who wants to know, "If the Supreme Court strikes down Obamacare, does that pose any danger to the Massachusetts health care law?"

We're actually going to turn to our Justice Correspondent, Pete Williams, who has an answer on that to you Nation. Pete, take it away.

PETE WILLIAMS: If the US Supreme Court were to strike down the Federal health care law, it would probably have very little effect on Massachusetts laws and for two reasons. 

First, the federal law is being challenged under the US Constitution. The question is whether congress had the authority to pass it. The challengers say the constitution's commerce clause gives the government broad power to regulate commerce, but not to regulate people not engaged in commerce. 

They say that somebody who doesn't have insurance isn't in commerce and can't be regulated. The Obama administration says what it's regulating isn't the insurance market, it's the healthcare system and everybody's involved in that.

Now by contrast, the Massachusetts system was passed by state law. So there's no issue of the Congressional commerce clause because it wasn't passed by congress. 

And by the way, the state law has already survived a challenge in state court based on state law. 

There's a second reason. The state's generally have broader regulatory authority. They're actually called police powers. Then the federal government does. That's because under our constitutional system, all power not granted to the federal government are reserved to the states. 

For those reasons, whatever the Supreme Court does, it probably won't mean much to the Massachusetts system.

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If the primary fight continues into the summer, will the eventual Republican nominee be able to pivot to ideological center to lure independent voters? As NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss, the bigger issue may be fundraising against Obama’s reelection campaign.

Thanks to JohnNY-3623017 for the question!

Edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the difference between John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney’s 2012 bid for the White House.

Thanks to Jody, Iowa for the question!

Edited by NBC's Morgan Parmet.

TRANSCRIPT:

MARK MURRAY: Welcome to the latest edition of Inside the Boiler Room. I'm Mark Murray, joined by my partner in crime, Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, we've got a question from Jody, Iowa,  long time commenter on the sight. Jody asks, "In 2008, Mike Huckabee won Iowa and won much of the South. In 2008, there was chatter about John McCain not being able to lock up the nomination. What do you think is the most significant difference between John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012?”

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well, there are a couple of significant differences. One, just on how the mechanics of the nomination process works. Last time around, we had a lot of winner take all states. This time, because of how they changed the rules, they're more proportional. So a candidate could stay in longer.  So a lot of these candidates instead of dropping out because they know what momentum means, which was that they could get a lot of winner take all states and it would essential be over pretty soon. They figured, I'll stick around. Why not? I'll pick up some delegates.

But the other thing that's a real important difference between these two guys is narrative.

Mitt Romney doesn't have the thing that he could fall back on like John McCain did as a war hero. Every event that you went to with John McCain there was this war hero video that he would play. People respected and knew that background of him as somebody who had been tortured, who had a lot of credibility. So people didn't go personal on him because they knew of that backstory. So even for folks in the South who might not trust John McCain. For people who become Tea Party folks who didn't really love John McCain. They still held their fire a little bit because they knew of his backstory.

MARK MURRAY: Well, Domenico, this stage in 2008 in March, John McCain had almost something of a 45 positive/25 negative fave/unfave. Mitt Romney's numbers are actually under water on that score. You raise a really good point on the narrative.

I'd add just one more thing that John McCain was also a Maverick. He was willing to buck his party and that actually appealed with independents a lot and so he had those two things going for him.

Mitt Romney's narrative right now is I'm a business guy who can turn around the economy. That seems to be falling on flat ears with the Republican electorate so far even though he is ahead. 

One other thing, John McCain also won South Carolina, which Mitt Romney was unable to do. So when Mike Huckabee was able to beat John McCain in numerous southern contests, particularly on Super Tuesday in 2008. John McCain was able to say look I still won the state that had at that point always decided presidential nominating contest. 

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well and I think your point on the appeal to independents is something that is different from last time around because John McCain, having that Maverick narrative, he did have that positive score which would help him in a general election. Of he wound up losing anyway, but Mitt Romney seems to have been hurt in this process among independents. I'm sure how much the Maverick thing helped him with Republican primary voters. He had basically an apology tour for bucking his party on one major issue which was immigration.

MARK MURRAY: Right.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: And until he was able to overcome that hurdle, it was very difficult to see him getting the nomination, but he did unlike Mitt Romney in healthcare.

NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the possibility of a Romney-Santorum ticket.

Thanks to Bob in Virginia-5210392 for the question!

Video edited by NBC's Jay Rankin.

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The White House isn't the only thing at stake on Election Night 2012.

Control of the House and Senate also hang in the balance, impacting the eventual president's ability to govern. It could be split government or even a three-chamber sweep for Republicans.

Video and transcript by NBC's Morgan Parmet.

TRANSCRIPT:

MARK MURRAY: Welcome to the latest addition of Inside the Boiler Room. I'm Mark Murray, joined by my colleague, Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, we got a question from Candice who asks, "What are the chances the Republicans retain the House and what seats are up for grabs that would allow the Republicans to take over the senate too?

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well one of the things we certainly love talking about: A little down ballot. So let's get to it here. The question here is can Democrats take back the House? Can Republicans retain the House?

You know a lot of people think that's probably not likely. It's probably the case because of redistricting and where things stand now that Democrats pick up high single digits is what a lot of people are looking at as something and they need about 25 seats

MARK MURRAY: Right.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: So, it's not likely that they take back the House. The Senate, however, is going to be hotly watched. Closely watched. The thing to watch on election night because what  we see right now, here's the field of play: Republicans will need three seats; will need to flip three seats, if President Obama loses.

If a Republican becomes President, they'll need three seats. If President Obama wins, they'll need four to take back the house. If you look through the field, let's go down the map. You've got North Dakota and Nebraska. Two right now you probably put in the Republican column. Then you also look at some Toss Ups like Missouri, Montana, and those two states a lot closer but maybe nudging, nudging, leaning towards Republicans. That's four.

But when we look at the other side of this, Democrats, you know, holding Virginia. Looks like a 50-50 race right now between Tim Kaine and George Allen, but also Nevada and Massachusetts are two targets that Democrats actually have. You know, the question between those three states, between Nevada, Virginia, and Massachusetts, as you've said, it seems if somebody wins two of those three, then we'll see who’s in control of the Senate.

MARK MURRAY: That is the one thing to look at. Whoever wins two of the three in Nevada, Virginia and Massachusetts will probably end up controlling the senate. Domenico, if Democrats are able to win all three and President Obama wins re-election, that's how they end up holding on to control of the Senate.

As for those House races again. The magic number is right. Democrats have to pick up 25 to take over the house. A lot of the very smart political analysts of the world, the Charlie Cooks, the Stu Rothenbergs, have looked back, that even when an incumbent President wins in a landslide fashion for re-election, that often that hasn't had a big down ballot effect. When Bill Clinton won in 1996, Democrats didn't win a whole bunch of House races. When George W. Bush won in 2004 even though it was contested, there wasn't a big down ballot effect.

So this is some of the reasoning why you might end up only having 10 or 15 House races switch hands. On the other hand, Democrats have to be feeling really good right now. When you look at polls, generic ballots are showing that things are starting to return a little bit more to 2008 from than they were 2010 when Republicans had that sweep in the House race.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yeah, and the Down Ballot effect is really important when you think about the Senate races especially in Nevada and Massachusetts because Massachusetts is obviously a state where Democrats are going to do well. In a Presidential election, it's one of the strongest Democratic or liberal states, but the question is going to be whether or not Scott Brown can convince voters who are going to vote for President Obama to also vote for him. That's, you know, can be a tall order, but he's done a lot of the things to move himself in a more moderate direction. Certainly irritating a lot of his tea party support when he had come in taking over what had been Ted Kennedy's seat.

In Nevada, if President Obama wins in Nevada, which he has done well with Hispanic voters. Did well there in 2008, then the question becomes will those same people who vote for President Obama also vote for Dean Heller. That's going to be an interesting thing to watch.

MARK MURRAY: Yeah, it really is. And it's just one of those things that we are going to be watching on election night. In addition to that, Presidential contest and all those battle ground states. Paying attention to the House, Senate, and also the Governor’s race.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Let's do it.

With gas prices expected to rise throughout the summer, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the effect high gas prices could have on President Obama’s re-election chances.

Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

TRANSCRIPT TO FOLLOW.