NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss what a possible Fiscal Cliff deal might look like and what all of the players have at stake.

Thanks to Frank "Grimey" Grimes for the question!

Video edited by NBC's Jordan Frasier.

TRANSCRIPT:

DOMENICO MONTANARO: I'm Domenico Montanaro, with another edition of Inside the Boiler Room here with Mark Murray inside our 'boiler room' I guess. It used to look a lot more like a boiler room when we did these more low budget but anyway we have two questions, we are going to combine them from DaNoid and Frank "Grimey" Grimes. DaNoid asks: "If there is a deal to be made to avoid the "Fiscal Cliff", what should we ultimately expect to see from that deal, who has to give more towards making the deal, Democrats or Republicans, and when should we expect to see a deal?" Frank "grimey" Grimes, always a prolific question asker says, "Who stands to gain or lose the most (from a political perspective," and we always like the political perspective, "in the upcoming negotiations on the "fiscal cliff"?

MARK MURRAY: Wow those are some really great questions. I do think we see the broad outlines of what the deal might end up looking like to answer DaNoid's question. It is going to involve either higher tax rates or more revenue or actually a combination of the two which you probably are going to get to see at the end of the day. The Obama White House is basically saying, and Democrats, rates are going to have to go up. These Bush tax cuts are going to have to be gone for good, and the question is maybe they are eliminated but there is something you end up getting in the longer term with some sort of tax reform, or maybe the White House ends up saying, 'Look, you know, the Bush tax cuts on capital gains have to go up but on income they dont.' There are a lot of ways you can negotiate it but it seems to be, the deal is going to be taxes or tax revenues or tax rates have to go up and that Democrats are going to have to give a little on entitlements. Right now we are in this negotiating stage of who is putting out the offers as kind of a wait-and-see approach. As far as when we actually might end up getting a deal, a really smart Democrat said to me expect around the middle of December and that is particularly why you are getting closer to the deadline you usually end up getting these deals right now but don't expect anything for the next couple of weeks.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yeah, I agree that there wouldn't be probably something for the next couple of weeks. I do think that it comes down to this idea that we've said that everybody agrees they need to raise some money from the rich but they don't know how, if it is going to be revenue or tax rates. Then the other side of the ledger is what do Democrats give on Medicare? It seems to be that the phrase "means testing" has become popular. You heard (Rep.) Jim Clyburn say it, the assistant leader, you've heard Republicans talk about it. So we will see what they can do, if there is something small on Medicare they would end up doing or something a little bit bigger. I would lean toward something smaller.

MARK MURRAY: And then to answer Grimey's question on who has the most to lose, probably I would think the answeris Washington and actually the governance. Both President Obama and House Republicans, they all ended up winning re-election, so they have plenty of time before- you know President Obama is not going to run again, House Republicans have two more years. You can make the argument that if this thing turns into a huge problem that somehow all of these sides can actually repair their reputations, which is possible. But after the debt ceiling fight, it almost seems as if Washington at large--I think people are looking to see if it actually--if people can make the tough decisions, make compromises to actually give faith that you know what, when the chips are down political leaders can actually come together. We saw that after Hurricane Sandy where Chris Christie was there with President Obama. I think people are looking to see if there can be a deal where John Boehner and Barack Obama, Mitch McConnell are all together and they can cut some type of deal.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well Chris Christie wasn't without criticism from the right, and you are going to hear all those kind of disparate voices from the fringes on both sides who aren't happy with whatever deal might wind up being struck. The thing is, I think Democrats start out with an advantage on this. Polling is showing that if there is no deal people will blame Republicans. But it's all about perception. As the negotiations continue, who does it appear to be that is more willing to work with the other side, versus the side that looks like they are more entrenched in their position. That perception over the next few weeks is really going to determine who wins or who loses politically if there is no deal, but I think at the end of the day everyone was hurt in the debt ceiling fight, everyone will be hurt if something isn't done with this "fiscal cliff".

MARK MURRAY: That is a great answer and great questions from DaNoid and Grimey!

As President Obama prepares for his second term, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the legislation that may define his next four years in office: immigration reform.

Thanks Maxx the Moocher for the question!

Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

TRANSCRIPT:
MARK MURRAY: Domenico, we have another Inside the Boiler Room questions and this actually comes from Maxx the Moocher, I think this is Maxx's first question to us, so welcome Maxx. Maxx asks, "What will be the President's "signature" piece of legislation for a second term?"

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well we know in the first term it was health care, or he would like it to be health care. I think that once we get past the fiscal cliff
stuff the biggest piece of legislation we are going to see is going to be on immigration reform. I really think that Republicans more so than their stepping away from a pledge on Grover Norquist which is pretty minor to be honest. You've heard much more-- you have seen much more of a thaw on immigration reform after they saw those demographic numbers and that their pollsters were wrong about their assumptions that were going to be made, and that the Census data in fact shows Latinos actually under performing what their percentages, they make up almost 17 percent, only 10 percent showed up at the polls this time around. That is only going to grow. Republicans see that, they know that is real and they have got to do something about that problem.

MARK MURRAY: Domenico, I agree with you that it would be comprehensive immigration reform particularly in that it is his second term. You know we have talked about before that President Obama took a lot of heat during the presidential campaign for saying that change comes from the outside not from the inside. But comprehensive immigration reform would actually be a key example of change coming from the outside because Obama is pointing to the exit polls and saying, 'Look, 71% of the Latino voters voted for me. Republicans, if you guys want to start winning back Latinos you guys have to cut a deal with my on comp. immigration reform and change the rhetoric. So I think that is an interesting dynamic. And then if we take a step back and look at if President Obama is able to get immigration reform done, if there is some type of a budget deal, of course that again is going to be a big question --

DOMENICO MONTANARO: --This stuff always seems tougher than even some of these other issues.

MARK MURRAY: Those would be two very big domestic achievements for a second term. More than you usually see in most second term presidencies just because you are a lame duck and it is harder to get things done domestically. But if you have those two things, combine it with health care, combine it with Wall Street reform, combine it also with that new START treaty with Russia, that is really a very big--

DOMENICO MONTANARO: --you talk about DOMA, some of those other...

MARK MURRAY: Right. Big accomplishments that you could actually probably rival to FDR or Lyndon Johnson.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Interesting. I do think immigration reform and health care are humongous pieces of legislation if they were to get done. It is hard to see what else there would be a push on, they've largely gone around Congress on education so I don't think they are necessarily going to go a route where they are going to try to reauthorize a No Child Left Behind or something. I think they are very happy doing that with Arne Duncan and through some of the more administrative and executive means. It is really hard to see what else there would be. Obviously on foreign policy they have a lot to manage when it comes to the war in Afghanistan and needing to wind that down in 2014, so I think that is going to be a big part of what happens in that second lame duck session.

MARK MURRAY: Also, don't lose sight on the Supreme Court. That is actually sometimes how a president has the most lasting effect.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: And really put their stamp.

MARK MURRAY: Right, and President Obama has the potential in the next four years to appoint maybe one, two or three Supreme Court justices potentially changing the balance of political power.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: It is really something and it is why the 2012 election was such an important one.

MARK MURRAY: Thanks Maxx for the question.

NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the outlines of a possible budget deal and whether or not the president has a mandate to craft one to his liking.

Thanks newdayDAWNING...RETURNED for the question!

Video edited by NBC's Jay Rankin.

TRANSCRIPT:

MARK MURRAY: Welcome to Inside the Boiler Room, I'm NBC's Mark Murray joined by Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, it has been a while since we have done an Inside the Boiler Room! We ended up getting a lot of really good questions, particularly as it relates to the fiscal cliff. This actually comes from newdayDAWNING...RETURNED who asks: "Mandate. We keep hearing the word, and both sides claim it. Did the President get a mandate on taxes in this last election, and will that help in making a deal with the Republican House? Or did the House Republicans retain an edge since they held the House? 

DOMENICO MONTANARO: I love that we talk about mandates when people win fifty-one percent of the vote. It seems to me kind of nuts that anybody thinks there is an overwhelming mandate for anyone to get anything done. I do think thought, that the President has some leverage, more leverage than House Republicans because he did win fairly overwhelmingly, especially in the Electoral College. There's all of these changing demographics going on. He ran on this idea of raising taxes on the wealthy. So, on that one specific issue I think he does have some leverage. I don't know if I would call it a mandate. I think the longer that it goes, the less that political capital he will have. But just like after '08, he had a lot of political capital. Well he has got political capital again coming out of this thing but it is just going to depend on whether or not Republicans are going to decide they want to take that leap and sign off on increasing rates, so far they haven't. The other thing is Republicans think they have a mandate because they retained the House, because in most of their districts 88 percent of them won by 55 percent or more, two-thirds of them won by 60 percent or more so they dont feel like they need to give an inch. 

MARK MURRAY: Right, and when you look at the exit polls, what was really striking to me was that 60 percent of the entire presidential electorate ended up saying that they actually favored raising taxes on everybody or those making--with income of $250,000 or more. That is pretty significant and you are going to hear the White House and President Obama return to those figures time and time again, and also Democrats are pointing out, 'Look, this isn't 2010 again when we actually had to come--during the debt ceiling negotiations,' that actually came after Republicans had taken control of the House, after Democrats had gotten thumped in those midterm elections. But in this presidential contest, and Domenico as you mentioned, probably the biggest idea between President Obama and Mitt Romney was precisely on the burden on the wealthy. President Obama made it a big issue and won, getting about 51 percent of the vote and winning decisively in the electoral college.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: What is a little fascinating to me is that they are still seemingly having a fight that they had during the campaign because the President wants to raise rates on the wealthy, and what Republicans in the House are saying is let's cut tax deductions and loopholes. Well who said that during the 2012 campaign? Mitt Romney. So they are still pushing the same line that Mitt Romney was pushing even though they have seemed to have thawed a little bit on revenue at all, but you know, at the end of the day, as we get closer to a deadline it is going to be interesting to see if--who gives on what here.

MARK MURRAY: Right. I do think the President has the upper hand, but then again, if this is going to be a big deal it seems like everybody is going to get a little something and also have to give up something in return.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Sure thing.

The election is over but there is still plenty of politics to discuss Inside the Boiler Room! We want to hear from you so post any questions you may have for Mark and Domenico below. You can also tweet us, @NBCFirstRead, @mmurraypolitics or@DomenicoNBC, or post on our Facebook page.

Thanks to Yellowdog-Mark D for the question!!!

Video edited by NBC's Jordan Frasier.

With new polls out every day leading up to the election, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the importance of paying attention to margin of error and poll trends when examining the data.

Thanks to Steeler Fan_380417 for the question!

TRANSCRIPT:

Mark Murray: It's another Inside the Boiler Room question, this actually comes from Steeler Fan, Domenico. Steeler Fan asks I'm curious about the attacks on the polling by the Republicans. Do you think there is anything to the criticisms of the methodology and the polling results that we're all seeing right now?

Domenico Montanaro: Well look, I just think people need to really remember that polls are about margin of error and trends. Everybody that wants to look at specific numbers within polls, party ID, this turn out model, that or the other, you know, that stuff, everybody, especially the good polls, they do a pretty good job of trying to wait for those things, understand what they are. Let's look at the trend of these things. It always drives me nuts when you see somebody talk about, 'oh my gosh, you know, it's a ten point lead, it must be over in one poll!' That's not the way, that's not an appropriate way to look at polling I mean, you should look at a broad swath of these things you know, so, and it always seems to be that the side that's down makes these complaints.

MM: Well and you can always usually tell in body language too, I mean, you look at all the polls right now pretty much tell us what our gut confirms that Mitt Romney's down right now. We saw that after the conventions, we certainly saw that on the crisis that they've actually had and crisis communication on dealing with that 47%. When you look at everything the Romney campaign has done, this doesn't look like a campaign that's ahead. And kind of going to the polls, Domenico, there's this great example where even in the Florida Senate contest Connie Mack, on the Republican side, his campaign said look, these Quinnipiac New York Times/CBS polls that actually showed us down double digits were wrong. Here's our internal poll, we're down by 6. Well the thing is, well maybe the spread isn't double digits, maybe it's in the high single digits, but it does show you what's actually actually going on right now.

DM: Right, and again that's margin of error. I mean, if something, if something says someone's up by 11 and it's a margin of error of 3, it can be 8 to 14, you know, and if another poll shows it's 6 then you're looking at a broad range of these polls, but you want to look at the trend and the direction that these things go.

MM: And not only the trend and the direction, but the preponderance.

DM: Right.

MM: If they're all, 90% of them are pointing in one direction, chances are that 90% is right and the 10% might be wrong.

DM: Yeah, I think the other thing too like you said about body language and the other things campaigns do, when you see MItt Romney put an ad out where he's talking directly to camera to try to address and mitigate concerns over the 47%- you know look, those are the things that are important too, I think people start to rely too heavily on polling, and shouldn't rely a little bit on anecdotal evidence, reporting in the states, and what kinds of TV ads that these guys are running.

MM: Thanks for the question, Steeler Fan.

Thanks to Don't_Carry_It_All and Frank "Grimey" Grimes for the questions.

Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

We are gearing up for our next installments of Inside the Boiler Room! If you have any questions for Mark and Domenico please post them below.

Don't forget, you can also tweet us, @NBCFirstRead, @mmurraypolitics or@DomenicoNBC, or post on our Facebook page.

We're back and want to hear from you! If you have any questions for our next installments of 'Inside the Boiler Room' please post them below.

Don't forget you can ask us questions on Facebook and Twitter...and follow us @mmurraypolitics and @DomenicoNBC!

With both the Obama and Romney campaigns releasing negative ads, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss how candidates use this tactic to define their opponents.

Thanks Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL for the question! Edited by NBC's Jay Rankin.