Measuring the first 100 days of Obama’s second term… The president held a news conference at 10:15 am ET… An extraordinary last 12 months when it comes to gay rights… It’s Primary Day in Massachusetts’ special Senate race; polls close at 8:00 pm ET…  Sanford and Colbert Busch took off their gloves in last night’s debate… Jessica Taylor on new Dem ad hitting Sanford over his affair… NYT/CBS poll: 62% oppose intervention in Syria… And FBI examining Bob McDonnell’s relationship with donor?

Jacquelyn Martin / AP

President Barack Obama gestures as he announces he will nominate Charlotte, N.C. Mayor Anthony Foxx to succeed Ray LaHood as Transportation Secretary, Monday, April 29, 2013, in the East Room of the White House.

*** Measuring the first 100 days of Obama’s second term: You might not have been keeping track, but we’ve now reached the 100-day mark in President Obama’s second term. And possibly to mark the occasion, the president held a news conference at 10:15 am ET. Bloomberg’s Al Hunt makes a smart point about how the first 100 days of the second have fared. “The 100-day mark is a measure for first-term presidents, not re-elected ones. Yet the end of April is a propitious moment for an early evaluation of how President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are meeting the aspirations set out in January. The answer: Both are falling short.” Indeed, outside of immigration -- and make no mistake, that’s a pretty big exception -- politics seems about as divided as it did in 2011-2012.The budget talks are back to square one (and the sequester fight only seemed to exacerbate things). Passing gun control failed in the Senate. Achieving tax reform seems like a considerable reach. And to top it off, some Republicans are beginning to flex their muscles -- again -- when it comes to raising the debt ceiling. So the idea of the “fever” breaking that the president promised during the campaign has yet to come to fruition. Of course, presidencies (and especially second terms) aren’t defined by the first 100 days. But remember, unlike first terms, second terms (at least domestically) have a shorter shelf life.

*** An extraordinary last 12 months for gay rights: What’s remarkable -- politically -- about NBA basketball player Jason Collins’ announcement that he is gay is that caps an extraordinary 12 months when it comes to the gay rights movement and gay marriage specifically. As NBC’s Chris Donovan has pointed out, just think of what’s happened in the past year:

-- On “Meet the Press,” Vice President Biden announces he’s “comfortable” with gay marriage (May 6, 2012)
-- President Obama then comes out in support of it (May 9, 2012)
-- Obama’s second inaugural address contains this line: “Our journey is not complete until our gay brothers and sisters are treated
like anyone else under the law” (Jan. 20, 2013)
-- Numerous other politicians announce their support before and after the Supreme Court oral arguments on Prop. 8 and DOMA
-- Supreme Court hears the oral arguments in Prop. 8 and DOMA (March 26-27, 2013)
-- Rhode Island is on track to become 10th state approving gay marriage (April 2013)
-- Jason Collins becomes the first male athlete in a major sport to announce he’s gay (April 29, 2013)

*** Three other points on Collins: We have three other points to make regarding the Jason Collins news. First, in the 20^th Century, sports often led the way on integration (think Jackie Robinson in baseball, African-American professional football players like Jim Brown in the 1950s and 1960s). But in this case, in the 21^st Century, sports was a lagging indicator. Indeed, 53% of the country in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll said they supported gay marriage before the first male athlete in a major sport announced he was gay. Second, don’t underestimate the impact that Obama’s support for gay marriage had on an African-American athlete coming out. (The president called Collins yesterday.) And third, given that Collins is now a 34-year-old journeyman center, there was a chance – before yesterday – that another team might NOT have signed him to play NBA basketball next year. Now? There will be a tremendous amount of pressure (applied by David Stern personally?) for NBA teams to sign him.

*** Primary Day in Massachusetts: If it’s a Tuesday, it means that some folks are out there casting ballots. And today, those folks are the voters in Massachusetts who are choosing party nominees to fill the U.S. Senate seat that John Kerry vacated to become secretary of state. In the special Democratic primary, Congressmen Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch are battling it out, and Markey remains the favorite. (The only question is how big a favorite is he.) Meanwhile, the Republican side features three candidates: Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Gabriel Gomez, former U.S. Attorney (and former acting ATF director) Mike Sullivan, and state Rep. Dan Winslow. Given his deep pockets, Gomez might give Republicans their best chance to compete in the June 25 general election. But also don’t forget that Gomez was the spokesman for the organization that accused Obama of politicizing the killing of Osama bin Laden. Polls close at 8:00 pm ET.

*** Sanford and Colbert Busch take off their gloves: Speaking of special elections, Republican Mark Sanford and Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch certainly made their only debate count last night in Charleston, SC. Colbert Busch whacked her GOP opponent for misusing taxpayer dollars, especially when traveling to Argentina. “When we’re looking at fiscal responsibility, it doesn’t mean you take the money we saved and leave the country for a personal purpose,” she said, per MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor. Sanford fought back by tying her to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and national Democrats. “It’s not believable to me that someone gives you a million dollars and not expect something in return,” he said. But Colbert Busch later responded, "No one tells me what to do, except the people of South Carolina's 1st Congressional District." Politico has more on the debate, which it said “laid bare their ideological differences on a range of issues. Sanford said he opposed the gun control bill that failed in the Senate recently calling for expanded background checks; Colbert said she backed it despite her belief in 2nd Amendment rights. Sanford said he would vote against the comprehensive immigration reform plan being pushed by the ‘Gang of Eight’; Colbert Busch favors it.”

*** New Dem ad explicitly hits Sanford over affair: Also in the Sanford-vs.-Colbert Busch race, Jessica Taylor reports on a new Democratic Super PAC TV ad hitting Sanford. The advertisement features a female GOP voter from the district slamming the former governor for his disappearance from the state while in office and the disclosure that he was having an affair with an Argentinian woman. “I used to be for Mark Sanford -- but not anymore,” says Jennifer Stark of Mount Pleasant, S.C. “He skipped town to be with his mistress on Father’s Day. Sanford even asked his wife for permission to have the affair, and wasted our taxpayer dollars on himself.” “I’m a Republican. But Mark Sanford just doesn’t share our values,” says Stark.

*** Six in 10 oppose U.S. intervention in Syria: Want another reason why the Obama administration is walking very carefully when it comes to Syria? According to a brand-new New York Times/CBS poll, 62% of Americans say the United States DOES NOT have a responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria.

*** FBI examining Bob McDonnell’s relationship with donor? Finally, this isn’t good news for the current GOP governor of Virginia, who just happens to be a 2016 presidential possibility.  “The FBI has begun examining the relationship between Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and his wife Maureen and the chief executive of a nutritional supplements manufacturer that is the subject of a federal investigation, two people with knowledge of the review said Monday,” the AP writes. “Federal authorities began questioning people close to the McDonnells as an outgrowth of a securities probe of Virginia-based Star Scientific Inc., said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because their roles in the case preclude them from speaking publicly. They said FBI agents have asked questions about gifts the McDonnells have received from company CEO Jonnie Williams and whether the Republican governor or his administration aided the company in return.”

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Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford meets the Democrat looking to end his bid for political redemption, Elizabeth Colbert Busch, in a high-profile debate Monday evening, just one week before the May 7 special election that will send one of them to Congress.

Colbert Busch and Sanford will share a stage for their first and only debate ahead of next Tuesday's special election to fill the vacancy that occurred following then-Rep. Tim Scott's, R, appointment to the U.S. Senate earlier this year.

Mic Smith / AP

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford speaks with reporters at Hay Tire & Automotive in Mount Pleasant, S.C., on Monday, April 22, 2013.

The campaign has attracted an intense amount of coverage in the national media because of the two candidates involved. Sanford, the former governor whose term ended in ignominy following an extramarital affair that resulted in his divorce and an ethics rebuke, is seeking a chance at political redemption. Standing in his way is Colbert Busch, the Clemson University administrator whose candidacy has been aided by the fame of her brother — political satirist Stephen Colbert of Comedy Central. 

While Sanford entered the showdown with an upper hand over Colbert Busch in this traditionally Republican district, the race was thrown into turmoil in recent weeks by Jenny Sanford, the former governor's ex-wife. She filed court documents accusing Sanford of trespassing on her property, thereby reviving some of the ugly, public 2009 divorce that ended the former two-term governor's possible aspirations to run for president. 

In the days following that revelation, Democrats and their allies went on the attack with television ads attacking Sanford. Republicans, meanwhile, retreated, forcing Sanford to fend for himself in the campaign when the National Republican Congressional Committee announced it would not run ads in the race. (The most recent poll, which was conducted by automated phone interviews, suggested Colbert Busch had the advantage over Sanford; NBC News does not officially recognize those polls.) Sanford has responded to his perceived slide by casting Colbert Busch as a handmaiden of Democrats' relatively unpopular leaders in Washington. Sanford went so far as to debate a cardboard cutout of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to illustrate his point.

Still, Monday's debate might offer the candidates their best chance to affect the trajectory of the race before voters head to the poll. Perhaps in a reflection of which way things are going, Sanford's demanded more debates — that is, more opportunities to ding Colbert Busch in public. The showdown will be broadcast on C-SPAN.

This story was originally published on Mon Apr 29, 2013 3:44 PM EDT

Calling him "one of the most effective mayors" in his city's history, President Barack Obama formally nominated Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, D, as his next secretary of transportation.

Obama named Foxx, a 41-year-old first-term mayor, as his successor to outgoing Secretary Ray LaHood, a former Republican congressman who joined the administration in 2009. Foxx joins Attorney General Eric Holder as one of two African-American members of the president's second-term status.

Obama cited Foxx's experience in spearheading various transportation projects — including a streetcar initiative and airport expansion — as a chief reason for nominating the Charlotte mayor. (Foxx was mayor during the Democratic National Convention last August in downtown Charlotte.)

"All of that has not only create new jobs, it's helped Charlotte become more attractive to business," the president said in introducing Foxx.

For his part, Foxx pledged to work with lawmakers in both parties during his confirmation process, and said there's "no such thing as a Democratic or Republican" transportation project.

Obama also paid tribute to LaHood in Monday's short ceremony, calling him maybe "the best secretary of transportation the nation's ever had."

And LaHood returned the favor, saying to the president: "If you're not the best person I've ever worked for, you're at the top of the list."

This story was originally published on Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:27 PM EDT

Washington taps the brakes on Syria… On implementing Obamacare… The FAA sequester fix -- Washington at its worst… Obama to nominate Anthony Foxx to be Transportation secretary… Sanford and Colbert Busch to debate tonight at 7:00 pm ET in South Carolina… And MA SEN primaries take place tomorrow.

George Ourfalian / Reuters

A general view shows damaged buildings in the old city of Aleppo April 29, 2013.

*** Tapping the brakes on Syria: Days after the Obama administration confirmed that Syria might have crossed President Obama’s red line -- using chemical weapons against its own people -- there’s collective agreement that something needs to be done. But there also seems to be collective agreement that the something needs to be small and limited, at least for now. On “Meet the Press” yesterday, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), one of Washington’s biggest hawks, called for arming the rebels in Syria, helping refugees, and securing the stockpiles of chemical weapons. But it also was notable what he DIDN’T CALL FOR. “[T]he worst thing the United States could do right now is put boots on the ground on Syria. That would turn the people against us,” he said. So as Obama seems to be trying to buy time, Washington appears to be giving him that. And here’s one of the reasons why: The rebels, as the New York Times wrote on Sunday, have ties to Al Qaeda. It’s a very tricky situation…

*** Implementing Obamacare: When it comes to implementing the new federal health-care law, Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus called it a “train wreck.” New York Times columnist David Brooks, citing supporters of the law, said that “things are going worse than expected.” And we have spoken with Democrats who are worried, too. But as Jon Cohn writes in the New Republic, none of this should be surprising: This is a complex process -- for the government, the states, and consumers. Yet among the Obama administration’s top concerns is ensuring that enough young men and women obtain insurance. (If the healthy uninsured 18 to 35 year olds don't sign up, the numbers don't work for anyone, for the government, for health insurance companies and for those of us who pay premiums.) And that was largely the pitch the president made at Planned Parenthood’s conference in DC last Friday. “So I’m here to also ask for your help, because we need to get the word out,” he said. “We need you to tell your patients, your friends, your neighbors, your family members what the health care law means for them. Make sure they know that if they don’t have health insurance, they’ll be able to sign up for quality, affordable insurance starting this fall in an online marketplace where private insurers will compete for their business. Make sure that they know that there are plans out there right now that cover the cost of contraceptive and preventive care free of charge.”

*** Washington at its worst: Also on Friday, Congress passed its legislative fix to prevent the air-traffic-controller furloughs under the so-called sequester. And in one single episode, it highlighted all of Washington’s problems. You had a divided and often-dysfunctional Congress -- which originally passed the sequester -- take extraordinary action ONLY after the airlines and business travelers complained about the flight delays. But the Congress didn’t do anything about the other budget cuts (to things like Head Start or the Meals on Wheels programs). Then you had a White House -- which signed the sequester into law -- give up its greatest piece of leverage in this debate and cave in its demand for a complete fix that includes additional tax revenue. Bottom line: This was Washington at its worst. And what’s an even bigger takeaway from the whole FAA fix? We are a long way away from a real budget fix. The idea of a grand bargain is as elusive today as it's ever been.

*** Obama nominates Foxx to head Transportation Department: As NBC has reported, President Obama today will nominate Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx to be his second-term Transportation secretary, replacing Ray LaHood. The White House event will take place at 2:10 pm ET. Meanwhile, the New York Times adds that the president “also appeared close to nominating Penny Pritzker, a hotel magnate, longtime friend and fund-raiser, as the next commerce secretary, and Michael Froman, his international economics adviser, as the United States trade representative, although neither nomination was scheduled to be announced on Monday.” So here is our updated look at Obama’s second-term cabinet:

John Kerry at State (replaced Hillary Clinton)
Chuck Hagel at Defense (replaced Leon Panetta)
Jack Lew at Treasury (replaced Tim Geithner)
Sally Jewell at Interior (replaced Ken Salazar)
Sylvia Burwell at OMB (replaced acting director Jeffrey Zients)
Lisa Jackson at EPA (Gina McCarthy nominated)
Steven Chu at Energy (Ernest Moniz nominated)
Hilda Solis at Labor (Tom Perez nominated)
Ray LaHood at Transportation (Anthony Fox nominated)
Commerce (N/A) (Pritzker appears to be the leading candidate)
U.S. Trade Representative (Froman appears to be the leading candidate)

And here are the cabinet secretaries who are remaining:

Janet Napolitano (DHS)
Arne Duncan (Education)
Tom Vilsack (Agriculture)
Eric Holder (Justice)
Kathleen Sebelius (HHS)
Eric Shinseki (Veterans Affairs)

*** Let’s get ready to rumble -- South Carolina style: A week before their general-election contest, Republican Mark Sanford and Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch will participate in their first debate. The AP: “The two meet Monday evening at The Citadel in a debate sponsored by the Patch news service, the South Carolina Radio Network and Charleston television station WCBD. The debate is being cablecast by C-SPAN. It's their first joint appearance in the campaign that started earlier when incumbent congressman Tim Scott was appointed to the state's vacant U.S. Senate seat.” The debate takes place at 7:00 pm ET.

*** Let’s get ready to rumble -- New England style: And the special Senate primaries take place tomorrow in Massachusetts. MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor recently examined the Democratic contest between Reps. Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch, especially in wake of the Boston Marathon bombing. And MSNBC’s Sarah B. Boxer looked at the Republican race featuring former U.S. Attorney Mike Sullivan, state Rep. Dan Winslow, and Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Gabriel Gomez.

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As Republicans mount opposition once again to President Barack Obama’s health-care law, the president appealed to women and specifically Planned Parenthood for help in fighting back.

Mike Theiler / Reuters

President Barack Obama speaks at the Planned Parenthood National Conference at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington April 26, 2013.

"I am here to also ask for your help, because we need to get the word out," Obama told Planned Parenthood Friday.

Much of the Affordable Care Act will begin being implemented next year, including the unpopular mandate, requiring those who do not have health insurance to obtain it or pay a fine. The Supreme Court upheld the law in a 5-4 decision last year.

Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have begun a messaging campaign against the law’s implementation in much the same way the GOP did before the law’s passage in 2009.

“I urge my friends on the other side to join with Republicans and stop this ‘train wreck’ before things get even worse,” McConnell said Thursday in a Senate floor speech. McConnell’s up for reelection in 2014 in Kentucky.

The Republican leader’s use of the phrase “train wreck” was a reference to retiring Democratic Sen. Max Baucus of Montana. Baucus, who ironically helped write and pass the health-care law, gave Republicans ammunition last week while questioning Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius during a Senate hearing.

"I just see a huge train wreck coming down,” he said. "You and I have discussed this many times, and I don't see any results yet."

Baucus, who was up for reelection in a red state in 2014, made the remark the same day he voted against the compromise gun background check legislation.

He announced his retirement just six days later.

Republicans have indicated it will use concerns about the law’s implementation against Democrats in next year’s midterm, hoping it will help fuel a takeover of the Senate.

“In 2014, ObamaCare will be a political tsunami.... and Democrats are terrified,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring said in a tweet, part of a series of tweets messaging against health care and highlighting other Democrats’ concerns.

Republicans need to net six seats to gain control of the Upper Chamber and make McConnell majority leader.

During the first fight over the health plan, before it became law in 2009, President Obama was seen as the best messenger for it. There were few, if any, other Democrats who showed an ability to frame the argument in favor of the plan as well as Republicans who opposed it.

Health-law advocates, however, worry that the president will be consumed with immigration over the next several months into the fall, just as the behind-the-scenes implementation of the law will be taking place.

That’s one reason Obama is looking for allies, and there’s no better place for him to start than Planned Parenthood, a group that helped advocate for the law’s passage.

“Planned Parenthood’s not going anywhere,” Obama told the group, referring to Republican attempts to de-fund it. “It’s not going anywhere today; it’s not going anywhere tomorrow. … You've got a president who's going to be right there with you in that fight every step of the way."

This story was originally published on Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:30 PM EDT

No good options when it comes to Syria… Jeffrey Goldberg: But not acting might be the worst option… Obama sells immigration reform at Bush library dedication… On the FAA fix: Business travelers of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your frequent-flyer miles!.... Our weekly 2016 round-up… Cuccinelli’s up on the air, while McAuliffe’s car company remains in the news… One camp is trying to be likeable (Cuccinelli’s), while the other camp isn’t (McAuliffe’s)... And “Meet” has John McCain and Tony Blair.

*** No good options when it comes to Syria: The Obama administration yesterday did two somewhat contradictory things regarding Syria’s bloody civil war. One, it confirmed that Syria might have crossed the red line President Obama established -- using chemical weapons against it people. “The U.S. intelligence community assesses with some degree of varying confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria,” Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said yesterday, per NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski. But two, the administration wasn’t sure about the intelligence. “We still have some uncertainties about what was used, what kind of chemicals were used, where it was used, who used it,” Hagel added. So why the two contradictory messages? Well, for one thing, the administration was sort of forced into publicly disclosing this intelligence, because if it didn’t, everyone else was (not just the Brits and Israelis, but lawmakers on Capitol Hill). Secondly, this is all about buying time to further cobble together an international coalition opposing the Assad regime (just as Obama meets with Jordan’s King Abdullah II at 1:55 pm ET today). But there’s another reason why the administration is trying to buy time: Because there are no good options.

Handout / Reuters

Demonstrators carry banners and Syrian opposition flags during a protest against Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Kafranbel, near Idlib, April 26, 2013.

*** But not acting might be the worst option: Indeed, even the hawks are split about what to do when it comes to Syria. Do you institute the no-fly zone? Put U.S. boots on the ground? Arm the rebels (who could turn out to be another problem down the road)? And this was the cloud hanging over the dedication of the Bush library yesterday -- the American public probably doesn’t have the stomach about intervening (one way or another) in a foreign civil war. But as Jeffrey Goldberg writes, the Obama administration not acting might be the worst consequence of all. “There are no good choices -- good outcomes in Syria are impossible to imagine. But if it is proved to a certainty that Assad is trying to kill his people with chemical weapons, then Obama may have no choice but to act, not only because he has put the country’s credibility on the line … but also because the alternative -- allowing human beings to be murdered by a monstrous regime using the world’s most devilish weapons, when he has the power to stop it -- is not a moral option for a moral man.” And Goldberg recalls this line that Obama said when he was a senator: “What I don’t want to see happen is for Iraq to become an excuse for us to ignore misery or human-rights violations or genocide.”

*** Obama sells immigration reform at the Bush library: Speaking of yesterday’s dedication of the Bush library, perhaps the biggest news -- other than Barbara Bush saying that the country has had enough Bushes in the Oval Office -- was Obama selling immigration reform by invoking George W. Bush’s legacy. “I am hopeful that this year, with the help of Speaker Boehner and some of the senators and members of Congress who are here today, that we bring it home -- for our families, and our economy, and our security, and for this incredible country that we love,” Obama said. “And if we do that, it will be in large part thanks to the hard work of President George W. Bush.” When you think about it, this was perhaps the largest Republican audience that Obama has ever addressed, and he put the prospects of immigration reform this way: “Passing immigration reform is just as much George W. Bush’s legacy as it is mine.” 

*** Business travelers of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your frequent-flyer miles! NBC’s Kasie Hunt and Mike O’Brien report that the Senate last night passed a measure to give the FAA flexibility to prevent the air-traffic-controller furloughs and delayed flights across the country. “Senators unanimously approved the ‘Reducing Flight Delays Act of 2013’ — a patch to fix the deep cuts that have furloughed air traffic controllers and delayed flights across the country… The House could take the bill up tomorrow and pass it with two-thirds support of that chamber.” So let’s get this straight: As soon as business travelers are inconvenienced for LESS THAN A WEEK, Congress takes action to fix the sequester. But where are the fixes to the sequester cuts to programs benefiting the poor, like Head Start? The White House, which said it will sign the fix into law, made that very point even as it showed no stomach for this fight. “We hope Congress will find the same sense of urgency and bipartisan cooperation to help the families who have had children kicked out of Head Start, the seniors who have lost access to Meals On Wheels, the hard-working employees who have been laid off due to defense cuts, and the 750,000 Americans who have lost a job or won't find one because of the sequester.” The lesson here: Congress will act, but only if it and its friends are hurt or simply inconvenienced. That’s a devastating indictment on how Washington works.

*** Our weekly 2016 round-up: On Thursday, the dedication of the George W. Bush presidential library featured two potential 2016 attendees: Hillary Clinton (who gave her first paid speech the day before) and Jeb Bush (whose mother said there were already enough Bush presidents)… Marco Rubio starred in a new TV ad by GOP supporters of comprehensive immigration reform… On Wednesday, Joe Biden delivered a moving speech at a memorial for the slain MIT police officer… His wife, Jill, has a new Twitter account… Rand Paul said the Boston bombings should put immigration reform on hold, and he also appeared to flip-flop on drones… Paul Ryan championed immigration reform… And Martin O’Malley, in Israel, talked about his 2016 intentions. “I plan for the latter half of this year to dedicate some more thought time — reflection time — to the question of whether or not I would run in 2016,” he said. O’Malley also gave Netanyahu a Joe Flacco jersey. 

*** Surprise, surprise -- Toomey’s approval rating goes up: We said Pat Toomey (R-PA) had a political motivation, looking ahead to 2016, to work on that background-check compromise with Joe Manchin (D-WV). “Though the background-check amendment co-sponsored by Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., failed last week to earn enough votes to be adopted, Toomey's standing among Pennsylvania voters is now at the highest point of his three-plus-year term, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Friday,” National Journal’s Steven Shepard writes. Toomey’s approval is 48%/30%, up from 43%/32% before the background-check push in March; Sen. Bob Casey (D) gets a similar 48%/34% approval, the same as March; President Obama’s is split at 48%/48%, an improvement over his underwater 44%/51% approval last month.

*** Cuccinelli up on the air, McAuliffe’s car company remains in the news: In Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, Ken Cuccinelli (R) is up with his first TV ad of the race -- and it appears intended to soften the Republican’s image, especially with female voters. The ad, which will begin running on statewide TV on Monday, features his wife speaking to the camera. “I’m Teiro Cuccinelli. My husband Ken has spent his life standing up for the vulnerable and those in need,” she says. “He’s worked the night shift at a homeless shelter, spent his college days leading efforts to prevent sexual assaults, and represented those suffering from mental illness. As attorney general, Ken fought to find and prosecute child predators and human traffickers. Virginia deserves a Governor who is experienced, principled, and honest. I think you’ll find that’s what Ken Cuccinelli is all about.” This new ad comes as the New York Times dives into the controversies surrounding the car company, GreenTech, formerly owned by Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe. “Documents have surfaced questioning his explanation for why he located the plant in Mississippi, not Virginia, including memos from Virginia officials expressing ‘grave doubts’ about his business model and suggesting its financing was a “visa-for-sale scheme” for Chinese investors.” 

*** One camp is trying to be likeable; the other isn’t: What ought to scare McAuliffe supporters is this: One campaign is trying to figure out how to be liked (Cuccinelli’s), and the other campaign isn’t trying or doesn’t know how (McAuliffe’s). Harry Wilson, a political scientist at Roanoke College, put it very well to the Times: “This may be the first time we don’t like our governor the day after the election.” But the question is: Which candidate is at least trying to be liked? But this story raises a larger question. What’s going on with the McAuliffe campaign? Is its strategy really just to sit back and then carpet-bomb Cuccinelli as out of touch and hope he can scrape by? Is that any way to win? Yes, it is. But is that any way to govern if you do actually win? No. Many Virginia Democrats are grumbling about the way McAuliffe is running this race (or the fact that Terry is their standard-bearer). What’s amazing is how much fear there is in the Virginia Democratic Party about challenging McAuliffe publicly on this. Of course, this isn’t fear of Terry as much as it is fear of the Clintons.  

*** UPDATE *** The McAuliffe campaign counters by saying it has focused mostly on a positive campaign thus far. "Terry has spent the last three months making front page news across Virginia by focusing on a positive message about making the Commonwealth better for business," spokesman Josh Schwerin says in an email to First Read. "Ken Cuccinelli has hidden from the public and been forced on defense over extreme statements on women's health, opposition to Social Security and an ongoing ethics scandals that have dominated the campaign since January."

*** On “Meet this Press” this weekend: NBC’s David Gregory interviews John McCain and Tony Blair. And the program has already released this excerpt from Blair on Bush: “Well I thought, it was great advertisement for America today by the way, you had five presidents including President Obama and all behaving with a sort of graciousness and a civility toward each other that I thought was fantastic and President Obama actually put his finger on it when he said, 'it's impossible to know George Bush and not like him,' so you know, often people say to me back home, they say, 'come on, you didn't like him really, did you?' And I say you can totally disagree with him but as a human being he is someone of immense character and genuine integrity, so, you can say- people have different views about decisions, but there's very few people who know him and don't like him and respect him as a person.”

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Re-examining Bush… But will history -- especially when it comes to Iraq -- truly allow him to get a second look?... 2016 could give us an early answer… What the Bush library/museum displays (and what it doesn’t)… A stroll down Memory Lane: Looking back at Bush’s presidency… A handful of conservatives bring up the charge that Obama hasn’t kept the country safe… Obama fundraises last night -- before attending today’s library dedication and memorial for those in West, TX… Another example of the difficult time Boehner/Cantor have had in herding cats… And Congress to exempt itself from Obamacare?

Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images

Former President George W. Bush participates in a signing ceremony inside the Freedom Hall for the joint use agreement between the National Archive and the George W. Bush Presidential Center on the campus of Southern Methodist University on April 24, 2013 in Dallas, Texas.

*** Re-examining Bush: Ex-presidents almost always get a second look. Long after the Vietnam War forced him to abandon his presidential re-election bid in 1968, Lyndon Johnson is now lionized (most recently by the New York Times) for his ability to twist arms. After the Cold War's end and David McCullough's popular book, Americans view Harry Truman more favorably than when he left office. And Bill Clinton -- who was dogged by impeachment, the Marc Rich pardon, and his contribution to his wife's defeat in 2008 -- is now enjoying his highest poll numbers in a very long time. So naturally, with the George W. Bush library being dedicated today, the re-examination of the nation's 43rd president is well underway. The Washington Post recently wrote about Bush’s rebounding poll numbers, though a recent NBC/WSJ poll found his fav/unfav numbers (35%-44%) relatively unchanged since 2010. And former Bush ’04 campaign manager Ken Mehlman argued that Bush’s “compassionate conservatism” and push for immigration reform is a GOP roadmap for better success with minority voters. But here’s the question to consider: Will history -- especially when it comes to Iraq -- truly allow Bush to get a second look?

*** Can he escape his Iraq legacy? To be sure, Bush supporters tout his accomplishments, such as the No Child Left Behind education law, the Medicare prescription-drug benefit, the Africa/AIDS work, and the Roberts-Alito appointments to the Supreme Court. Other events -- like 9/11, Hurricane Katrina and the 2008 financial crisis -- would have challenged any president. But it's the Iraq War that Bush will find hard to escape. After all, it was a war of choice that resulted in the deaths of thousands of U.S. soldiers, the deaths of many more civilians, the destabilization of the Middle East (think Iran would be the threat it is today without the Iraq War?), and the election of Barack Obama in 2008 (who essentially campaigned against Bush in his two winning elections). More importantly, the war's primary justification -- Iraq having weapons of mass destruction -- turned out to be incorrect. “People will make their own judgment,” Bush told NBC’s Matt Lauer this morning on “TODAY,” adding: “Removing Saddam Hussein was the right decision.” However, a Jan. 2013 NBC/WSJ poll found 59% of the public saying the Iraq War wasn’t worth it.

*** 2016 could hint at an answer: Perhaps a key test if history looks more kindly on Bush's presidency is the 2016 election. History's failed presidencies have tended to result in the opposition party going on a run in future presidential contests – think of the six Republican victories after James Buchanan, the five Democratic wins after Herbert Hoover, and the three-straight Republican victories after Jimmy Carter. So who wins in 2016 (Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, the GOP nominee?) could tell you something about Bush's legacy, at least from American voters. Another 2016 story to watch: Does brother Jeb Bush run? "If Jeb's last name was Brown instead of Bush, he'd probably be the front-runner for the Republican nomination," Haley Barbour told recently Politico. And does the ultimate GOP nominee run on something like Bush's "compassionate conservative" platform, or does the nominee run away from Bush as Romney did (remember, Bush was a no-show at the GOP convention, and Romney rarely invoked him on the campaign trail)? Speaking of 2016, don’t miss former First Lady Barbara Bush saying on “TODAY” she DOESN’T want her son Jeb running. “We’ve had enough Bushes.” Leave it to Mama Bush -- the straightest of straight talkers -- to make the unpredictable news of the morning here. She’s legendary inside the family for telling it like it is and not hiding her true feelings well in public. And, well, she did it again. The official line from George W. and Laura about Jeb is “run” -- they have not even hesitated when asked.

*** What the museum displays (and what it doesn’t): What’s striking for those of us who have been able to tour the new Bush library and museum is that there is no dedicated section on Iraq; instead, the war is discussed as part of the “global war on terror.” What’s more, former Vice President Dick Cheney and top political strategist Karl Rove have almost no presence in the library, despite being two of the most consequential actors in the Bush administration. What is clear is the presence of former First Lady Laura Bush, however. This isn’t just the George W. Bush Library; it’s the George W. and Laura Bush Library. It’s folks Laura respected from the Bush team who are featured in the library -- from Condi Rice to folks like Andy Card and Josh Bolten.

*** A stroll down Memory Lane: Per NBC’s Sarah Blackwill, here are some of the more memorable quotes from Bush’s eight years in the White House:
Jan. 20, 2001: “America, at its best, is compassionate. In the quiet of American conscience, we know that deep, persistent poverty is unworthy of our nation's promise.” (First inaugural address)
Sept. 14, 2001: I can hear you! I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people who ... knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon. (Bush at WTC site)
Jan. 28, 2003: The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.” (2003 State of the Union)
May 1, 2003: Officers and sailors of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, My fellow Americans: Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. (“Mission Accomplished” event)
Nov. 3, 2004: “Laura and I wish Senator Kerry and Teresa and their whole family all our best wishes. America has spoken, and I'm humbled by the trust and the confidence of my fellow citizens.” (Election Night 2004)
Nov. 4, 2004: “Let me put it to you this way. I earned capital in the campaign, political capital. And now I intend to spend it.” (Press conference after re-election victory)
Jan. 20, 2005: “There is only one force of history that can break the reign of hatred and resentment, and expose the pretensions of tyrants, and reward the hopes of the decent and tolerant, and that is the force of human freedom.” (Second inaugural address.)
Sept. 2, 2005: “Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job.'' (After Hurricane Katrina)
Jan. 10, 2007: “So America will change our strategy to help the Iraqis carry out their campaign to put down sectarian violence and bring security to the people of Baghdad. This will require increasing American force levels. So I have committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq.” (Announcing Iraq surge)

*** A handful of conservatives bring up the charge that Obama hasn’t kept the country safe: Given the Bush library dedication and given the news out of Boston last week, maybe we should have braced ourselves for a handful of conservatives arguing that the Obama administration is “failing” to keep the country safe from terrorists. But do leaders of the GOP really want to have this argument? This could get ugly -- fast. Here was freshman Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) on the House floor yesterday: “In barely four years in office, five jihadists have reached their targets in the United States under Barack Obama: the Boston Marathon bomber, the underwear bomber, the Times Square Bomber, the Fort Hood shooter, and in my own state—the Little Rock recruiting office shooter. In the over seven years after 9/11 under George W. Bush, how many terrorists reached their target in the United States? Zero!” Conservative writer Jennifer Rubin has made a similar point. “Unlike Obama’s tenure, there was no successful attack on the homeland after 9/11.” (Note the words “after 9/11” from both Cotton and Rubin.) Interestingly, when Lauer asked Bush today whether the country was safer, the former president answered in the affirmative, but he added, “People on the homeland are aware that we are not completely secure.” Until “hopelessness” has been eradicated, Bush said, “we’ll still be vulnerable.” The most serious of security folks have said for years (since 9/11) that the hardest attack to prevent is the lone wolf. Don’t be surprised if some of the more senior GOP folks denounce this line of attack on Obama.

*** Obama fundraises … then hits the Bush library and service for those killed in West, TX: Meanwhile, are we the only ones surprised that Obama decided to hit a fundraiser in Dallas last night before attending today’s Bush library dedication (where he speaks at 11:00 am ET) and then the memorial service for those who died in West, TX (at 3:15 pm ET)? It’s an odd tone.

*** Another example of the difficult time Boehner/Cantor have had in herding cats in the House: “Republican leaders in the House of Representatives on Wednesday withdrew a bill that would change the Obama administration's healthcare law amid conservative concerns that the legislation was replacing one big government program with another,” Reuters writes. “The House cleared the way to debate the bill, which was designed to help Americans with pre-existing medical conditions while preventing the administration from using an alternate source of funding to implement its healthcare law. But the ‘Helping Sick Americans Now’ bill was pulled from the schedule before members could cast their votes, suggesting that Republican leaders did not have enough support from their own members. Democrats called the bill a political ploy by the Republicans.”

*** Congress to exempt itself from Obamacare? And finally, if this Politico story is true, we’d imagine Congress' approval ratings will sink even lower (if that's possible). “Congressional leaders in both parties are engaged in high-level, confidential talks about exempting lawmakers and Capitol Hill aides from the insurance exchanges they are mandated to join as part of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, sources in both parties said.” NBC’s Kasie Hunt says that this all comes down to whether Capitol Hill’s employer (i.e., the federal government) can subsidize health-care costs for their employees like most businesses do. All of this might be irrelevant because the Office of Personnel Management still hasn't made a key ruling about whether the government is allowed to continue providing subsidies to federal employees. If they rule that it's allowed, the talks aren't necessary.

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A seemingly mundane vote on Wednesday intended to help Republicans soften their image on the health care issue laid bare some of the still-raw divisions between the GOP’s pragmatists and the party’s more obstinate ideologues.

House Republican leaders were forced to pull a vote on legislation designed as a prime opportunity to fuse conservative priorities with a proposal easily grasped by voters: improving coverage for Americans with pre-existing conditions. Conservative lawmakers fretted that the proposal would perpetuate an element of “Obamacare,” and once again balked at supporting Republican leaders. The situation illustrated, again, the party leaders’ difficulty in managing some of the GOP’s most unruly conservatives.

Alex Wong / Getty Images file photo

House Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA)

Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Va., the No. 2 Republican in the House, was the chief proponent of the now-shelved legislation, which would have reallocated money from the program’s prevention fund in order to beef up the insurance pool established for high-risk patients under “Obamacare.”

“We, in the House, remain committed to putting our conservative principles first to help people first,” Cantor said at a press conference with fellow Republican leaders.

Though President Barack Obama had threatened to veto the legislation, Republicans pursued it nonetheless to notch a positive, campaign-friendly vote for House lawmakers.

But Cantor’s office, which sets the schedule for the House floor, was forced to reverse course by Wednesday afternoon, and cancel a planned vote on the legislation when it became apparent that they would lack the necessary votes to advance the bill. (Most, if not all, Democrats intended to oppose the bill, meaning GOP leaders could afford to suffer few defections in their own ranks.

“We had good conversations with our members and made a lot of solid progress,” said Erica Elliot, a spokeswoman for House Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., who explained many House Republicans were set to leave town to attend the dedication of the George W. Bush presidential library on Thursday.

Doug Heye, a spokesman for Cantor, said: “We intend to bring the bill back up when Congress returns in May.”

The Virginia Republican’s proposal had enjoyed the high-profile support of conservative organizations like Americans for Tax Reform and Independent Women’s Voice, along with several other prominent conservative voices.

But the proposal angered conservatives, who complained that Cantor’s legislation would perpetuate an expensive part of the health reform law, and do nothing to halt the underlying legislation. The influential Club for Growth, which opposes the bill, said it would include lawmakers’ vote on its annual scorecard. Brent Bozell, a conservative figurehead who’s clashed often with the GOP establishment, dubbed the proposal “CantorCare.”

“It fixes part of Obamacare that the Democrats designed,” wrote Erick Erickson, editor of the influential conservative blog RedState. “It makes Obamacare less bad, more palatable, and more likely to stick around instead of collapsing under its own weight as Paul Ryan and others have kept saying it would.”

But the entire ordeal illustrated Republicans’ continued difficulties in finding the sweet spot between conservative consistency and the process of governing – a phenomenon within the GOP that extends well beyond Capitol Hill.

This story was originally published on Wed Apr 24, 2013 4:24 PM EDT

It’s nice work, if you can get it.

On Wednesday, Hillary Clinton begins what will likely be the most lucrative part of her life – so far – as she gives her first paid speech in Dallas, Texas. She’s expected, like her ex-president husband, to command a whopping $200,000-plus for each appearance.

Marc Bryan-Brown / AP

This image released by Women in the World shows former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaking at the Women in the World Conference on Friday, April 5, 2013, in New York.

To put that in perspective, Clinton’s salary as secretary of state, where she logged more frequent-flyer miles than any American envoy ever, was a paltry-by-comparison $186,600.

That means if she gives just 10 speeches this year, she’ll take home a cool $2 million -- before she pays taxes to Uncle Sam, of course.

Clinton’s speech Wednesday at the posh Four Seasons Resort and Club in Dallas will be before the National Multi Housing Council and is conveniently located just 25 minutes from Southern Methodist University, the site of the George W. Bush presidential library, which opens Thursday. Clinton and husband, Bill, are expected to attend, as will the Obamas.

Clinton’s remarks are closed to the press, but speculation abounds about what the potential 2016 frontrunner might say. In particular, people will be looking for any clues about a future White House run for the former first lady, who would be a favorite to become the first woman president.

Clinton’s won’t be the only speech delivered Wednesday by a potential White House hopeful. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, brother of the 43rd president, is also speaking in Dallas before The World Affairs Council of Dallas-Fort Worth, promoting his book.

George W. Bush -- who has stayed on the political sidelines over the last four years, tending to a painting hobby and making paid speeches of his own -- told Parade magazine Sunday that he hopes his brother does run and doesn’t think his last name will hurt him.

“I would hope that people would judge [him], if Jeb were to run, on his merits and his track record,” Bush said, adding, “So I hope he will run.”

Clinton, who routinely tops polls as the most admired woman in the world, stands to make tens of millions of dollars, potentially hundreds of millions, as one of the mostly highly coveted speakers on the globe.

She’s signed up with the Harry Walker Agency, the same group that represents Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and Dick Cheney, as well as Arnold Schwarzenegger, Shaquille O’Neal, Martin Sheen, and Bono.

Bill Clinton has reportedly earned some $89 million in paid speeches since leaving office, including $13.4 million from 54 speeches in 2011, according to the most recent financial disclosure form his wife filed as secretary of state. That’s an average speaking fee of more than $248,000.

There is risk, however, in all this potential cash for the former secretary of state and New York senator. As reporters and campaign-opposition researchers follow the money, she will need to pick her speeches wisely, if she is indeed considering a 2016 bid.

Presidential candidates are required to file financial disclosure forms, and in them, they’re expected to detail -- among other things -- their paid speeches. Political opponents will comb through for any potential conflicts of interest or payments from groups -- or countries -- that might be considered unsavory.

Rest assured, opponents will leave no stone unturned. While Clinton currently enjoys sky-high favorability ratings – 56 percent positive, 29 percent negative in the April NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll – she will quickly become a target for the right if she jumps in. Opponents already are circulating, for example, a Republican House committee report going after Clinton for her role in the handling of the run up to the attacks on the consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

They’re all things Clinton will have to consider before jumping back into the deep end of the presidential pool -- as she banks her millions.

This story was originally published on Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:25 PM EDT

Boston becoming a political football -- this time regarding intelligence… GOP establishment fully pushing immigration with new TV ad featuring Rubio… Rand Paul’s flip-flop on drones?… Bush on his relationship with Dick Cheney: “You know, it’s been cordial”… Tuesday’s big 2014 developments: 1) Baucus isn’t seeking re-election, and 2) Kim Reynolds says no to IA SEN bid… And Mark Sanford is still talking about that trespassing charge.

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill, April 23, 2013.

*** Boston becoming a political football: Last week, we told you that Washington was biding its time before diving into the politics of Boston. Well, here’s the splash as it relates to intelligence gathering. The Boston Globe: “Russian authorities contacted the US government with concerns about Tamerlan Tsarnaev not once but ‘multiple’ times, including an alert it sent after he was first investigated by FBI agents in Boston, raising new questions about whether the FBI should have paid more attention to the suspected Boston Marathon bomber, US senators briefed on the investigation said Tuesday.” NBC’s Pete Williams cautions that FBI officials are insisting -- again -- that they were contacted about Tamerlan Tsarnaev only once, in early 2011, by the Russian intelligence service, which said it had reason to believe that he was becoming a follower of radical Islam. Nevertheless, when you have U.S. senators alleging that the FBI was contacted “multiple” times, you have a situation that’s turned into a political football.

*** Hindsight is always 20-20, of course: There also are questions being raised by lawmakers about “stove-piping” -- that is, intel agencies not sharing information. But how much of this is hindsight and how much of this is truly a systemic problem? And let’s not forget the personal liberties issue. Just how much was the FBI supposed to be tracking someone that they had no hard (or even soft) evidence of becoming a terrorist threat? It’s very possible the FBI came to a reasonable conclusion that the Russian warning was as much about them harassing a Chechen as it was anything else. That said, one potential policy change to keep an eye on, post-Boston, is increased surveillance on those who traffic in any kind of radical Islamic rhetoric on social media. And that, of course, will usher in another debate about the line between personal liberties and security.

*** GOP establishment fully pushing immigration reform: On immigration, the group Americans for a Conservative Direction -- led by Haley Barbour, former Jeb Bush Chief of Staff Sally Bradshaw, Facebook’s Joel Kaplan, Dan Senor, and Rob Jesmer -- is up with a TV ad selling immigration reform to Republicans. And the ad features Sen. Marco Rubio, who says, “Anyone who thinks what we have right now on immigration is fooling themselves. What we have in place today is de-facto amnesty.” A narrator then adds, “Conservative leaders have a plan -- the toughest enforcement measure in the history of the United States.” And the narrator concludes, “Stand with Marco Rubio to end de-facto amnesty.” Per the Tampa Bay Times, the seven-figure ad buy will air statewide in Florida, plus markets in Texas, Utah, North Carolina, Iowa, and Kentucky.” If you wanted another example how the GOP establishment is fully behind immigration reform, it’s this ad. More importantly, the ad is targeted in states with key Republican senators who could either torpedo immigration (Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul), or help it get to 75 votes (Orrin Hatch, John Cornyn, Richard Burr, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Grassley).

*** Bush on his relationship with Cheney: “You know, it’s been cordial”: A day before the dedication of George W. Bush’s presidential library, C-Span has this sound of the former president talking about his relationship with Dick Cheney. “You know it’s been cordial — but he lives in Washington and we live in Dallas.” More: “One of the saddest things about departing Washington is that you miss your pals and a lot of people were there for all eight years and I became good friends with them, like Vice President Cheney. …  You know, I just I don’t see him — much. And I don’t see many of the people I worked with much and it’s kind of sad. It’s great to be in Texas, however.” And then: “I really don’t miss Washington. … “So while we’ve got friends in Washington I’m not all that friendly to Washington.” For what it’s worth, Cheney has no real role in the library and museum. While Bush veterans like Andy Card, Josh Bolten and Condi Rice are among the Bushies who do videos and have roles in the interactive portions of the Bush library, there’s nothing from Cheney, although he will be in attendance tomorrow.

*** 2016 alert: Rand Paul’s flip-flop on drones? There’s some trouble in Paul Land. Here’s Foreign Policy: “Ron Paul's vibrant fan base is in open rebellion today over Rand Paul's perceived reversal on domestic drone strikes. The Kentucky senator, whose famous 13-hour Senate floor filibuster did much to strengthen his ties with his father's hardcore following, told Fox Business Network on Tuesday he's OK with drone strikes on American citizens who, for instance, rob a liquor store. ‘I've never argued against any technology being used when you have an imminent threat, an active crime going on,’ Paul said. ‘If someone comes out of a liquor store with a weapon and fifty dollars in cash. I don't care if a drone kills him or a policeman kills him.’” Paul later released this statement: "My comments last night left the mistaken impression that my position on drones had changed. Let me be clear: it has not. Armed drones should not be used in normal crime situations. They only may only be considered in extraordinary, lethal situations where there is an ongoing, imminent threat. I described that scenario previously during my Senate filibuster.”

*** Tuesday’s big 2014 developments: Yesterday should have been a high-five day for the Republican Party in its quest to pick up the six Senate seats needed to win the majority in 2014. First, Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) announced he wasn’t running for re-election, thus giving Republicans a prime pick-up opportunity in a state where Obama won just 42% of the vote in 2012. But just minutes later, Democrats were able to counter that popular ex-Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer is leaning toward running for the vacant seat, while the GOP still hasn’t found a top-notch candidate. Then after that, the GOP received its own bad news: As NBC’s Alex Moe first reported, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds decided not to run for the seat vacated by Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa). So with Rep. Tom Latham passing on a Senate bid, and with Rep. Steve King appearing to lean against it, the Reynolds news means that Republicans will likely have to turn to second- and third-tier candidates in the Hawkeye State.

*** Examining the GOP’s IA-MT-SD path: The GOP’s path to winning the Senate goes directly through the Midwest/Mountain West. Republicans have to win AT LEAST two of the three of Iowa, Montana, and South Dakota to pick up those six Senate seats. They look good in South Dakota, where they have former Gov. Mike Rounds already in the race. But they’re now dipping into their second tier of candidates in Iowa, where Democrats have already recruited a top candidate in Rep. Bruce Braley. And in Montana, Democrats right now appear more prepared to land a good candidate (Schweitzer) than Republicans do, although that is still far from settled. But if you were to tell Republicans that -- all before April 30, 2013 -- they would have three open seats in Iowa, South Dakota and Montana, Mitch McConnell might already be measuring the drapes in the Senate majority leader’s office. But all three things have happened, and only one of those races looks like a good bet for a GOP pickup. Then again, it’s April 2013…

*** Sanford still talking about that trespassing charge: You know the saying: When you’re in a hole, stop digging. But Mark Sanford doesn’t appear to be following that advice. “First Congressional District candidate Mark Sanford, who previously has said he was in his ex-wife’s home Feb. 3 because he didn’t want his youngest son to watch the Super Bowl alone, said Tuesday for the first time that a second son was at the home, too.”

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As former President George W. Bush steps back onto the public stage, he’s facing both criticism from detractors who point to his lingering unpopularity and divisive impact on the GOP, and praise from supporters who cite the importance of “compassionate conservatism” to the modern Republican Party.

While the former two-term president has kept a relatively low profile since leaving office in 2009, focusing on private speaking engagements and his burgeoning painting hobby, he will be back in the spotlight Thursday for the dedication of his presidential library in Dallas, Texas.

His re-emergence at this week’s event – which will feature all of the United States’ five living presidents – arrives just as his lasting political legacy comes into focus.

Mladen Antonov / AFP - Getty Images

The George W. Bush Presidential Library and Museum in Dallas will be dedicated on Thursday.

The controversies of the Bush administration – including the conflict in Iraq, the waging of the “global war on terror,” the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis – saddled the former Texas governor with staggering unpopularity by the end of his presidency, which helped give way to President Barack Obama’s ascendancy and an ongoing identity crisis within the GOP.

The library dedication offers Bush loyalists an opportunity to highlight what they see as the positive legacy of his eight years in office. But even among supporters, there is a sense of resignation that he won’t win the kind of historical vindication that once seemed assured.

“I’m increasingly doubtful, just because I think the lens of history is not changing,” said Ari Fleischer, Bush’s former press secretary. “A lot of us used to say President Bush will look good and he’ll be vindicated in the public eye. But realistically speaking, I don’t see a lot of the people who write history all of a sudden changing their mind about George W. Bush.”

The persistent focus on those controversies has made it difficult for Bush to repair his public image since leaving office. Thirty-five percent of Americans expressed a favorable opinion of Bush in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted at the beginning of this month; 44 percent of Americans said they viewed Bush unfavorably. (A Washington Post/ABC News poll released Tuesday featured rosier numbers for Bush – 47 percent approval vs. 50 percent disapproval.)

“He's had a little uptick in the polls, but I think in terms of historians, he'll rank near the bottom of mediocre presidents,” said strategist Bob Shrum, a top adviser to the two Democratic presidential nominees who lost to Bush, Vice President Al Gore and then-Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. “I don't think the Iraq War can be redeemed. What was done to the economy and budget will be permanently part of his legacy.”

Benny Snyder / AP

Letters written from around the world and sent to the White House offering thoughts and prayers after the 9/11 attacks are displayed at the George W. Bush Presidential Library and Museum in Dallas.

And while Bush might have shied away from the spotlight in the four years since leaving office, his effect in American politics is undeniable. The specter of Bush was a constant presence during the 2012 campaign, when Obama warned that his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, would return the country to the “failed policies of the past.”

A further study in contrast came during last summer’s Republican National Convention, where Bush was nowhere to be found in Tampa. Former President Bill Clinton, rather, was one of the featured prime-time speakers at his party’s confab, a stark reminder of the popularity gap between the two.

For Bush supporters, the economic collapse in 2008, along with Katrina and the extended conflict in Iraq, are blemishes against him – but they do not believe that he deserves to shoulder the primary blame. And for those allies of the former president who have toured the library (and continue to defend their former boss), they describe the new library as a blunt and forthright assessment of the Bush presidency.

“I think visitors are going to be surprised to see a frank discussion of what was done and why it was done,” Fleischer said. “It doesn’t shy away from controversy. The museum takes on the biggest issues for which the president was criticized.”

For all of the baggage that continues to surround Bush’s eight years in office, many of his supporters argue that the unpopular former president’s record offers Republicans more clues about their path to resurgence than cautionary tales.

Bush, for instance, unsuccessfully led a charge for comprehensive immigration reform in 2007, an initiative which conservatives are now revisiting amid the GOP’s slide with Hispanic voters. (Bush won 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004.)

And following some of the harsher conservatism of congressional Republicans in the 1990s, Bush tried to put a somewhat softer face on the party – much as the party is trying to do now – during his 2000 bid for the presidency.

“He established the idea of compassionate conservatism, which is a concept that most Republicans realize was a winning message and one the party needs to return to in order to win,” said Mark McKinnon, a senior political adviser to Bush’s two presidential campaigns.

Benny Snyder / AP

An exhibit is shown in the museum area at the George W. Bush Presidential Library and Museum in Dallas.

Those aspects of Bush’s political strategy are what helped make him such a formidable opponent, according to Shrum.

“The attempt he made with Kennedy and McCain to do immigration reform was right on the merits, but also right on the money politically as well,” he said.

But as the party he helped cleave continues to search for a path forward, Bush himself said that he did not think the GOP is so hopelessly moribund that it’s beyond repair.

“The party ought to nominate somebody who can stand by principles and explain why conservative principles are better for the vast majority of the citizens,” Bush told Parade Magazine in an interview published last Sunday. “I’m not one who believes that the Republican Party is doomed forever.”

The person to do that might end up being Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida and the brother of George W. Bush. Of his younger sibling’s future potential ambitions, Bush said: “I hope he will run.”

Related story:

• Bush is back - but not his popularity

This story was originally published on Wed Apr 24, 2013 4:37 AM EDT

Capitol Hill Republicans were downright giddy earlier this year when they forced Senate Democrats into agreeing to pass a formal budget resolution for the first time in four years.

Now Senate Democrats are trying to turn the tables on Republicans, demanding that the GOP allow the budget process to move forward by naming negotiators to hammer out a formal budget accord with the House.

T.J. Kirkpatrick / Getty Images

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., sought Tuesday morning to name 12 senators -- seven Democrats, five Republicans -- to a formal legislative "conference," the process which takes place when the House and Senate pass different versions of the same measure (in this case, a budget resolution).

"They're no longer interested in regular order, even though they preached that for years," said Reid, referring to the slow-moving, formal legislative management process for which many Republican leaders have clamored. "They don't want to go to conference and work things out. They don't even want to name conferees."

Reid added: "It seems House Republicans don't want to be seen discussing even the possibility of compromise with Democrats, for fear that there will be a Tea Party revolt."

Republicans counter that moving toward a former conference process usually involves some level of pre-negotiation that lays the groundwork for an eventual agreement.

"To go to conference right now strikes us as not making much sense," explained Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., following a lunch with fellow Republicans.

And while House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, described ongoing conversations between his chief budgetary lieutenant, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, and Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray, D-Wash., the speaker echoed McConnell in resisting a conference.

Although budget resolutions are often a political exercise -- more often, they represent the priorities of a party than any serious attempt at governing -- Democrats are now trying to seize the initiative on the topic.

House Republicans for years pummeled the Senate Democratic leadership for failing to pass a budget, pointing to the lack of one as a sign of fiscal recklessness. (Reid has said there was no need to pass an overarching budget, given the various fiscal agreements that govern spending levels.)

The House GOP's canard earlier this year, in which they tied a three-month extension in the debt limit to the Senate passing a budget (or endure a pay forfeiture otherwise), was designed to exploit that very lack of a budget.

Democrats are now trying to turn that political maneuvering back against Republicans.

"If the Republicans are serious about reducing the deficit, we need to get to work -- get to work sooner, rather than later," Reid said.

This story was originally published on Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:45 PM EDT