“Republicans for years have complained bitterly that Senate Democrats last produced a comprehensive budget in 2009 and say that, if Obama and fellow Democrats want to borrow more money, they'll have to outline a spending plan,” AP writes. “Senate Democrats announced Sunday that they will oblige and produce a budget — but warned it will include higher taxes that Republicans oppose.”

Said Senate Democrats’ No. 2 Chuck Schumer: ‘‘We’re going to do a budget this year. And it’s going to have revenues in it. And our Republican colleagues better get used to that fact.’’

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) doesn’t like Obama’s gun push.

Gallup won’t be conducting polls for USA Today anymore.

Goodness… Political Wire: “Nevada assemblyman Steven Brooks (D) is in jail, arrested for threatening Speaker-elect Marilyn Kirkpatrick (D), the Las Vegas Sun reports. "A source said he was arrested with a loaded gun after threatening to shoot Kirkpatrick... Another Democratic source with knowledge of the situation said Brooks publicly threatened to harm Kirkpatrick because he was unhappy with the committee assignments given to him by Kirkpatrick."

“Authorities are investigating death threats against Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), according to an aide to the freshman congressman,” The Hill writes. “Mullin’s chief of staff, Karl Ahlgren, said that Mullin and his family are being protected, the Associated Press reported.”

Slideshow: Obama's first term

Robin Buckson / AP

The president's first four years at the White House in pictures.

Launch slideshow

Just 11 weeks removed from a sweeping re-election victory, President Barack Obama has hit the ground running with an ambitious second-term agenda that includes tackling the mounting national debt, immigration and gun control.

But the window in which the president has any hopes of meeting his aggressive goals has already begun to close.

Confronting the fading effectiveness of a second-term presidency, dogged opposition from Republicans in Congress and unexpected hurdles that will inevitably arise over the next four years, Obama must act with a sense of urgency on his plans, particularly amid the fiscal cliff negotiations.

“Second-term presidents generally get eight months or so ... where there's a honeymoon to push an agenda,” said James Thurber, the director of Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. “He doesn't even have a month.”

Newly armed with “Organizing for Action” – the remnants of the president’s campaign structure, converted to a nonprofit for advocacy purposes – Obama has suggested he will indeed act quickly on his top priorities.

But the next few months might well test the limits of the political capital that the president won in November, which saw Obama score a decisive victory over Republican opponent Mitt Romney and Democrats add seats in the House and the Senate.

If this past December’s lame duck Congress – in which Obama won higher tax rates for the wealthy, but only after a bitter fight with Republicans – offers any lessons, it’s that the GOP is equally committed to pursuing its own priorities, making compromise just as elusive as before.

The fiscal cliff fight will extend into this spring, when the government hits a series of major deadlines to keep the government funded and prevent a default on the national debt. That bare-knuckled fight could make or break Obama’s hopes of accomplishing much else on his agenda.

“I don't believe that he can wait until the last minute to deal with the debt ceiling and sequestration,” said Martin Frost, a former Democratic congressman from Texas. “That's got to be worked out during February.”

That fight would threaten to consume much of the political oxygen in Washington in any normal year. And Obama’s ability to pivot toward his other major priorities, gun violence and immigration, may well hinge upon how quickly and cleanly he can dispense with this spring’s spending fight.

History suggests that many presidents cannot hope to accomplish much in the last two years of their term, when the jockeying for the next presidential campaign begins. And with midterm elections looming in 2014, lawmakers will inevitably turn at some point from governing to politicking.

"There's kind of an arc of achievement in presidential administrations. Usually the first few months of a new administration is where most of the accomplishment takes place," said Ross Baker, a presidential historian at Rutgers University. "It's hard to imagine getting another piece of legislation of the magnitude of the Affordable Care Act in the second term."

And Obama’s hopes of significant reforms to immigration and gun laws might well depend upon how well (or how poorly) the spending fight with Congress proceeds.

The president last week laid out a series of measures intended to curb gun violence, most significantly proposals to limit the size of ammunition magazines, ban assault weapons and require universal background checks on firearm purchases. That plan won little praise from Republicans, and Obama might have to lean upon any reservoir of goodwill he has left after the spending fight to reach his goals.

Obama is practically obligated to attempt immigration reform after soothing the Latino community during last year’s election about his inability to follow through with a pledge to accomplish immigration reform in his first term. If re-elected, Obama told Hispanic voters, he would make immigration reform a priority in this second term.

Both proposals could engender significant Republican resistance, a phenomenon familiar to any observers of Obama’s first four years in office.

Another significant – and unpredictable – variable that could ruin even the best-laid plans involves the unknown crises that will inevitably arise during Obama’s second term.

A foreign policy crisis could always erupt and consume the president’s attention. Uprisings in Egypt, Libya and Syria, for instance, proved to major developments during Obama’s first four years in office.

If anything, the president’s first term offered a cautionary tale of how difficult it can be to navigate the obstacles to success that can arise.

The president nearly saw his signature health reform law go down to defeat after the advent of the Tea Party movement, for instance.

And external events – a near-meltdown of the economy, mass shootings, the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and other crises – consumed as much of the president’s first term as anything else.

Just as foreign policy could prove to be a diversion from policy making, it’s one of the few policy areas where a lame-duck president can leave a legacy.

For instance, Bill Clinton, in the waning days of his presidency, concentrated on achieving an elusive peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians.

“He's got a whole range of things on his plate right now,” Frost said of Obama, “it just really depends on how he prioritizes things.”

ANALYSIS

In the days leading up to President Barack Obama unveiling his gun-violence proposals -- a first chance to signal his intended path forward -- no one was entirely sure what to expect.

Would the characteristically cautious Obama go incremental, putting forth measures intended to have a chance at passing Congress? Or would he go bold? The answer wound up being the latter, with the president making a sweeping call to action on guns -- the broadest proposals in a generation.

Go big or play it safe is a calculus all second-term presidents make when they’re fresh off a re-election, emboldened by the satisfaction that a majority of voters approved enough of their first term to send them back to the White House, yet experienced enough to understand the pitfalls of the legislative fights ahead.

Like many of his predecessors, Obama is exuding a newfound confidence as he begins his second term. His gun-control push, combined with a narrower approach to Afghanistan, contentious national-security nominations, and harder lines in dealing with House Republicans, foreshadows a president -- free from electoral politics -- who appears ready to shed some of the pragmatism that marked his first term. It signals that while he may remain open to deals, Obama likely will feel less inclined to spend significant time pursuing them with an entrenched opposition.

“It makes sense, historically,” said Michael Beschloss, a presidential historian and a NBC News contributor. “There is more of a sense of command. He speaks more confidently. There’s just a difference between becoming president after being a senator for four years and being the most powerful person in the world for four years.”

Barbara Perry, a senior fellow at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, agreed.

“He has this kind of calm, self-confidence, cool, to his enemies bordering on an arrogant demeanor, and that may be coming out now,” Perry said. “He seems bolder than coming in.”

Obama's newfound command style is typical for a second-term president, Beschloss said. He pointed to similarities between Obama’s presence now and Bill Clinton in 1997 and George W. Bush in 2005, after both were also re-elected.

“America tends to treat two-term presidents very differently,” Beschloss said. “In terms of body language, this is a different dimension.”

Presidents in their first terms are often self-conscious, he added, about whether they will earn the legitimacy granted in the annals of history to those who win re-election.

“He’s proved that he’s not a historical fluke,” he said of Obama, noting that all presidents wonder if they are just that.

A strong position
Obama is in an especially strong position for a second term, considering that he accomplished a signature legislative achievement -- heath care -- in his first term, Beschloss noted.

“He is less encumbered than many second-term presidents are,” he said.

According to Beschloss, Most presidents hold off on a push for a major legislative achievement until the fifth year, when they believe they will be free of electoral politics. Think John F. Kennedy and civil rights.

“Most presidents I can think of would have waited to do health care in a second term,” Beschloss said, adding that Obama, though, “did the opposite” likely because he realized he might not have the same structural advantages again of large Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate.

“That makes this as a second-term president a little different. He’s not girding for that kind of fight.”

Perry also points to the Supreme Court upholding the health-care law as a turning point.

“It had to show the president, ‘I really do get this system,’” she said. “I just don’t think people make enough of that victory.”

Couple that with Obama’s decided victory in November, and “that has to infuse him with confidence,” she added.

Obama will have to make sure the health care law is implemented well, but he can turn his legislative focus to guns and immigration, both areas where they expect Obama will go bold.

Another reason for the shift, Beschloss said, is Obama is no longer in crisis mode the way he was when he came into office in 2009.

“You’re probably getting much more of a view of the true person rather than someone responding to crisis after crisis,” Beschloss said.

Comparing to JFK
Beschloss and Perry see similarities to Kennedy in how Obama has evolved as president. Like Kennedy, Obama was young and a relative political neophyte when he took office. Neither was known for or seemed to enjoy the back slapping or arm twisting seen as necessary for major legislative victories in the way Lyndon Johnson or Bill Clinton did.

But both learned from mistakes.

“He does seem to have that quality, a JFK quality,” Perry said. “They aren’t natural-born politicians; they have charisma, but aloof. Personality-wise, they’re very similar. He learned from his mistakes, and I think Obama has that capacity, and that is a major skill for a president. You didn’t get to see that in a second term for Kennedy.”

Beschloss added, “You sure want a president with a sharp learning curve. Kennedy’s the best example of that.”

Perry said perhaps Obama deserves the criticism that he’s not sociable or seen as good negotiator. “He may be aloof,” she said. “His personality doesn’t lend to backslapping.”

But structure may matter more. Both Perry and Beschloss believe Obama has taken away from his first term that he doesn't have a good-faith negotiating partner in the GOP and that since it will only continue, as the GOP looks to who can become the next GOP president, Obama won't try as hard to woo Republicans.

“I think, and he has said this, he was optimistic and tried to improve the relationship,” Beschloss said, but now he “feels more chastened, and you can see it in his actions.”

Perry added, “I don’t see us moving much beyond the Mitch McConnell statement from four years ago.”

As Obama was beginning his first term, the Republican Senate leader from Kentucky famously proclaimed, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

“Now the goal of the GOP will be to put a Republican back in the White House after eight years, so anything they can do to short circuit this president’s agenda, they will do,” Perry said. “And that’s not a criticism. That’s just the way the system has operated since we’ve had two parties, since the founders walked out of the signing of the Constitution.”

The question now is “will this newfound confidence get him over that hurdle?” Perry said.

It only makes sense then, they said, that Obama will try and play an “outside game” to try and leverage pressure on Congress.

Clock is ticking
But there remain warning signs for the president. The economy is still in a fragile recovery and many second terms have been marred by scandal or mismanagement (Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica Lewinsky, Katrina and Iraq).

There are also the unknowns. Obama had to deal with several unexpected major events in his first term, from the BP oil spill to the Arab Spring to the debt-ceiling crisis.

In addition, for Americans, “familiarity breeds contempt,” Perry notes. Nearly every president since World War II, except Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, has become less popular in their second term.

“Americans grow weary of just about everyone and everything,” Perry said. “We use up politicians and celebrities, and sports figures … It’s an unusual personage who can overcome that handicap, but Obama is one of the few presidents who has the ability to do that.”

She also points out the irony that, like with Reagan and Clinton, “The farther we get away from them [presidents], the more we like them.”

The biggest hurdle, though, in Obama’s second term is there's only so much time to get it all done.

In fact, presidents who win reelection only have about six months before they become a lame duck, Beschloss said. Elected officials start thinking about their own reelections in the midterms. The parties start looking beyond the president to the upcoming open presidential election. It’s something Johnson understood well.

“LBJ said, ‘We’ve got exactly six months,’” Beschloss said of Johnson after winning election in 1965. “Most of what you and I think of as the Great Society passed in the first six months.”

And in Obama’s case, every day spent on fiscal fights with House Republicans is one less day spent on any major initiatives the president wants passed.

Larry Downing / Reuters

President Barack Obama gets a hug from his daughter Malia as wife Michelle and daughter Sasha looks on in the Blue Room of the White House in Washington, Jan. 20, 2013.

President Barack Obama was officially sworn in Sunday for his second term as president of the United States, ahead of Monday's public events.

In a small and succinct ceremony at the White House, Obama recited the constitutionally mandated oath of office for the third of four expected times during his time in office.  

Embracing his children after the oath, his younger daughter Sasha was heard to whisper “good job, Daddy!” 

"I did it!" he responded, before she observed "You didn't mess up." 

Sunday's official swearing-in, administered by Chief Justice John Roberts, was the 57th inauguration of a president in American history. 

Wearing a dark suit and blue tie, Obama repeated the directive to “preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States." He was joined by First Lady Michelle Obama and his daughters Sasha and Malia.  

After thanking Roberts and waving to cameras, Obama and the first family left the White House's Blue Room. He will deliver his public inaugural address Monday on the west front of the United States Capitol.

During the brief swearing-in Sunday, the first lady -- who wore a dark blue dress -- held the family Bible upon which Obama laid his hand to swear the oath. According to inaugural officials, the Bible was a gift from Mrs. Obama’s father to his mother in 1958.

When Obama first took the oath of office on Jan. 20 four years ago, he and Chief Justice John Roberts tripped up over the wording, raising concerns about whether the constitutional requirements were fulfilled to the letter of the law.  Roberts went to the White House the next day and administered it again in full. 

The short Sunday ceremony was held because the constitutionally mandated inauguration date of Jan. 20 falls on a Sunday, so Obama will take the oath a fourth and final time on Monday before hundreds of thousands of observers on the National Mall. 

The Monday ceremonies will include the president's inaugural address, a luncheon with the president and members  of Congress and the traditional inaugural parade and balls. 

Ahead of the ceremony, the Obama family attended church at the Metropolitan African Methodist Episcopal Church in Washington , a historic place of worship that also hosted pre-inaugural services for former President Bill Clinton and Vice President Albert Gore.

Vice President Joe Biden was officially sworn in at about 8:20 a.m. ET Sunday.

The small weekend ceremonies for both men are a bit of a historical quirk, although today's swearing-in was the seventh in history to take place on a Sunday.  The last instance occurred in 1985, when President Ronald Reagan was formally sworn in for his second term in office.

Beginning with the second inauguration of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1937, new presidents and vice presidents have been sworn in on Jan. 20 due to the changes laid out in the 20th Amendment to the Constitution.

(Before that, inaugurations were typically held on March 4, as directed by the 12th Amendment. But controversy over the length of the lame duck period forced that ceremony to be moved up by law).

Slideshow:

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

Festivities for President Barack Obama's second inauguration.

Launch slideshow

RELATED: More Inauguration Day content from NBCPolitics.com

In addition, eight vice presidents have been administered the oath of office upon the death of a president. The hastily planned ceremonies have taken place in hotels, homes and -- famously, after the death of John F. Kennedy -- aboard Air Force One. 

The oath of office for the president is set out in the Constitution.

Article II, Section 1, states as follows "Before he enter on the execution of his office, he shall take the following oath or affirmation: -- "I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the office of president of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States."

Traditionally, two minor changes are made. First, the president taking the oath says his name after the first word ("I, Barack Hussein Obama"). And second, the phrase "so help me God" is added at the end. 

NBC's Pete Williams and Shawna Thomas contributed to this report. 

Joe Biden was sworn in to a second term as the Vice President of the United States on Sunday morning, taking his oath from Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor -- the first Hispanic in American history to administer an oath of office.

Biden personally selected Sotomayor, who is also the fourth woman to administer an oath, to conduct the brief ceremony at the vice president's residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C. 

By law, the president and vice president must be sworn in on Jan. 20. Because that date falls on a Sunday this year, both men take their formal oaths today, but will hold the traditional longer public ceremony tomorrow. 

Biden's swearing-in was originally scheduled to be held shortly before the president's, near noon Sunday. But Sotomayor's previous commitment to a book signing in New York City prompted officials to move the event earlier in the day. 

"It's an incredible honor to have Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor swear me in," Biden said in a statement. "I believed strongly that she would make a great Justice, and it was one of the greatest pleasures of my career to be involved in her selection to the Court.  From the first time I met her, I was impressed by Justice Sotomayor's commitment to justice and opportunity for all Americans, and she continues to exemplify those values today. Above all, I'm happy for the chance to be sworn in by a friend - and someone I know will continue to do great things."

After the short swearing-in, Biden again thanked Sotomayor personally, explaining to the small group of guests the reason for the early timing of the event. 

Biden took the oath on a family Bible bearing a Celtic cross. It has been in the Biden family since 1893.

Cabinet members attending the ceremony included Attorney General Eric Holder and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar. He was joined on stage by his family, including wife Dr. Jill Biden and his three children. 

Updated 2:26 p.m. - Republicans will act to push the deadline at which the U.S. government would default on the national debt to mid-April, demanding that Democrats pass a budget in exchange for a long-term extension in borrowing authority.

House Republicans said they will take up legislation next week to temporarily extend the debt limit for three months, past the mid-February deadline when the government, according to the Treasury, would reach its legal limit on borrowing to finance the government's obligations.

"Next week, we will authorize a three month temporary debt limit increase to give the Senate and House time to pass a budget," House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., said. "Furthermore, if the Senate or House fails to pass a budget in that time, members of Congress will not be paid by the American people for failing to do their job. No budget, no pay."

Recommended: Different attitude greeting Obama's upcoming inaugural

"We are encouraged that there are signs that congressional Republicans may back off their insistence on holding our economy hostage to extract drastic cuts in Medicare, education and programs middle class families depend on," White House press secretary Jay Carney said in response. "Congress must pay its bills and pass a clean debt limit increase without further delay."

Such a move would push the deadline for default to mid-April, around the time at which the House and Senate are typically expected to produce and pass budgets. To secure a longer-term extension in the debt ceiling, Republicans said Friday, the Senate must finally pass a budget.

"Before there is any long-term debt limit increase, a budget should be passed that cuts spending," House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, told GOP lawmakers at the conclusion of their retreat, according to remarks released by his office.

Republicans have vocally criticized the Democratic-controlled Senate for failing to produce a budget in recent years, a mark of the upper chamber's unseriousness in the eyes of many conservatives. Democrats have used the two budgets authorized by House Republicans as a political cudgel against the GOP; the Senate's failure to pass a budget has been partially meant to escape similar political culpability.

"We are going to pursue strategies that will obligate the Senate to finally join the House in confronting the government’s spending problem," Boehner said. "The principle is simple: no budget, no pay."

Recommended: NBC/WSJ poll - Public lowers expectations heading into Obama's 2nd term

Republicans' new strategy cuts against a strain of thought within the GOP that suggests that default would not be as catastrophic for the economy as many experts have warned. These Republicans have argued for using the debt ceiling deadline -- and the specter of default -- as leverage to extract spending cuts or entitlement reforms from President Barack Obama.

"It is reassuring to see Republicans beginning to back off their threat to hold our economy hostage," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said in response. "If the House can pass a clean debt ceiling increase to avoid default and allow the United States to meet its existing obligations, we will be happy to consider it."

But Republicans are facing increasing political pressure to act, and prevent default. The party's favorable/unfavorable rating was near its worst ever in Thursday's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll following a drawn-out battle over the fiscal cliff, a political fiasco many Republicans aren't eager to repeat. And Obama gave a press conference earlier this week explicitly refuse bargaining over the debt limit.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-Ohio, right, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., left, walk to a second Republican conference meeting to discuss the fiscal cliff bill passed by the Senate Monday night and now awaits a vote in the GOP-controlled House, at the Capitol in Washington on Tuesday, Jan. 1, 2013.

In recent days, high-profile Republicans had steadily backed away from the prospect of defaulting on the national debt, sending signals that they'll extend the nation's borrowing authority for at least a little while longer.

"We will raise the debt ceiling. We're not going to default on our debt," Texas Sen. John Cornyn, Republicans' No. 2 in the upper chamber, told the editorial board of the Houston Chronicle. "I will tell you unequivocally, we're not going to default."

And Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., the House Budget Committee chairman and former vice presidential nominee, told reporters at House Republicans' retreat on Thursday that lawmakers were "discussing the virtue of a short term debt limit extension."

They join Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, in acknowledging the need for a debt ceiling increase; more and more members of the conservative media have also questioned the political wisdom behind using the debt limit as leverage in the spending debate.

What's more, traditionally GOP-friendly business groups have privately urged lawmakers against wrangling over the debt limit, which has become a factor weighing upon Republicans' strategy.

"There was serious displeasure and concern within the financial services community over the way Republicans handled the debt ceiling issue in 2011," said one business advocate tied into Republican politics. "It was the financial community that helped deliver the resources for a Republican takeover in 2010 and now House Republicans are at risk of jeopardizing their credibility with their free market allies. Cutting spending and helping the economy are not mutually exclusive, but republicans have found a way to make it seem that way in the eyes of voters."

Edited by NBC's Natalie Cucchiara.

A different attitude to greet Obama’s 2^nd inauguration, per new NBC/WSJ poll… “Cope” instead of “hope”… But Obama remains popular in poll… The same isn’t true of the GOP, Congress… Majority supports broad principle of gun control (but there’s a big divide between gun owners and non-gun owners)… Majority also backs immigration reform (but there’s a big divide between Dems and GOPers)… And Obama World sets up Organizing for Action.

*** A different attitude to greet Obama’s second inauguration: Presidential inaugurations are typically a time of celebration and renewal, and that was certainly true of President Obama’s first inaugural four years ago. But as Obama is set to begin his second term on Monday, he confronts an American public that remains in a funk. According to our new NBC/WSJ poll, just 35% of adults think the nation is headed in the right direction (down six points from last month); more than seven in 10 are dissatisfied with the current state of the economy; and 60% believe the coming year will be a time to hold back and save because of harder times ahead. Much of this sour mood is explainable. After all, the country just witnessed a bitter fiscal-cliff fight right after the election, as well as a national tragedy in Newtown, CT. Also, a second inaugural is always different than the first. But it’s also true this isn’t Jan. 2009. “If 2009 was all about hope,” NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) says, “2013 is about the ability to cope.”

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

Two workers adjust flags on the Capitol as preparations continue for the second inauguration of President Barack Obama in Washington, DC, on Jan. 17, 2013.

*** But Obama remains popular: Despite this sour attitude, the American public continues to like Obama. He finds himself with a job-approval rating at 52% among all adults, and majorities support his general direction on gun control and immigration reform. As for views on his qualities as president, Obama gets the best marks for being easygoing and likeable (61% give him high marks here), having the ability to handle a crisis (55%), being compassionate (53%), being knowledgeable and experienced (53%) and being a good commander-in-chief (51%). His lowest marks come on achieving his goals (44%), working effectively with Congress (29%) and changing business as usual in Washington (28%). Also, the public doesn’t have a lot of confidence in his economic stewardship: Just 36% say they are “very confident” or “fairly confident” in his ability to promote a strong and growing economy. The White House will look at these numbers and say, “Phew, at least expectations are lower this time than they were four years ago.” And that may very well be true. But the fact remains: The country wants the economy turned around; it’s the No. 1 message they want to send the president. And so far, they don’t believe he’s done it, and they are worried he can’t do it even as they hope he does.

*** The same isn’t true of the GOP, Congress: Yet just like in last year’s presidential election, Obama and the Democrats are benefitting from one important thing: They public has MUCH LESS confidence in the opposition party. According to the poll, 49% hold a negative view of the Republican Party -- its highest negative rating in the survey since 2008. (In fact, it’s been higher than 49% just once in the entire history of the NBC/WSJ poll.) Only 26% have a positive view of the GOP. By comparison, the Democratic Party has a net positive rating, with 44% holding a favorable view of the party and 38% holding an unfavorable one. And the conservative Tea Party movement, which took off in Obama’s first year as president, also finds its popularity at an all-time low in the poll, with an upside-down fav/unfav of 23%/47%. What’s more, just 14 percent of adults approve of Congress’ job (which is near the all-time low in the poll), while 81 percent disapprove (which is close to its all-time high). By the way, most of the recent negative movement for the GOP is among core Republicans. The GOP was already viewed very negatively by Democrats and indies; it couldn’t really get much worse with those two groups. So this latest shift for the GOP is due to the fact that a growing number of core Republicans were not happy with how the party handled the fiscal cliff.

*** On gun control: Also in the poll, 56% believe that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be stricter, compared with a combined 42 percent who want them less strict or kept the same. That’s the most support on this particular question since 2006, but it’s less than the 60%-70% who supported stricter gun laws during the 1990s, including when Congress passed an assault-weapons ban in 1994. But here’s the bigger challenge for the White House and Democrats: There’s a big divide between gun owners and non-gun owners. Per the poll, 55% of Republicans say they (or someone in their household) own a gun, compared with just 27% of Democrats who say that and 48% of independents. In addition, 61% of rural respondents have a gun in their households, versus 42% of suburban respondents and only 29% of urban dwellers. And nearly half of whites own guns (47%), while just 24% of African Americans, 24% of Latinos, and 34% of those ages 18-34. Bottom line: The members of the Obama coalition DON’T own guns, while those who are probably represented by a GOP member Congress DO own guns. If one were to map gun ownership in American, you’d see most of those folks living in the red congressional districts. And what does that mean? It’s unlikely the Republican House will budge on these issues because THEIR constituents will have a different view.

*** On immigration reform: Attention Marco Rubio: Finally, our poll shows that -- for the first time -- a majority of Americans (52%) favor allowing illegal immigrants who hold jobs to apply for legal status in this country. That’s the good news if you’re a supporter of comprehensive immigration reform. But here’s the bad news: There’s a big difference by party. Democrats favor this by a 70%-28% margin. But independents oppose it 54%-43%, and Republicans oppose it 65%-33%. These numbers explain why Marco Rubio has spent so much time this week trying to sell his immigration plan to conservative media. To truly speed up the politics of immigration, it’s going to take a conservative like Rubio to persuade other conservatives that this is the path forward.

*** On Organizing for Action: And First Read confirms the news that Obama's political organization “is forming an outside, nonprofit group to support the president's legislative agenda. The unprecedented move gives Obama a way to promote his agenda outside the confines of the White House and seeks to harness the energy from his re-election campaign into support for legislation. Democratic officials say the group, Organizing for Action, will be announced Friday. The nonprofit will work on key legislative battles, train future leaders and local issues around the country.” Organizing for Action will be set up as a 501c4 group, but we are told the group WILL have full disclosure of its donors (either monthly or quarterly); setting it up a 501c4 (as opposed  to a Super PAC) makes it easier to legally coordinate with the White House. But the Obama folks are conceding a big point here: They can’t do the things they want to do (like the organizing, etc.) inside the Democratic Party. If this version of OFA is successful, we’re also told then don’t be surprised if this becomes Obama’s personal vehicle post-presidency, a la Bill Clinton’s Clinton Global Initiative.

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*** Friday’s Daily Rundown’s line-up: Breaking down the new NBC/WSJ poll with NBC’s David Gregory as well as pollsters Peter Hart and Bill McInturff… Our continuing series of meeting new members of Congress with returning Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN), who took a 30-year hiatus before his return to Capitol Hill… Plus the Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus, the Bernard Center’s Michelle Bernard and the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter join the Gaggle for a look at recent second inaugurations and what kind of toll (political and physical) the first four years have taken on the president

*** Friday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Rep. Peter Welch; Jounalists, Liz Sidoti & Alex Roarty; Strategists John Brabender & Jamal Simmons; Brent Colburn from the Presidential Inaugural Committee; Howard Bragman on Mante Te’o and Lance Armstrong;  and Aaron Negherbon from Troops Direct dot org.

*** Friday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviews L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) and Ben LaBolt, Sr. Advisor, Presidential Inaugural Committee.  Today’s Power Panel includes:  The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake,  former Obama 2012 Traveling Press Secy. Jen Psaki and Fmr. RNC Chair Michael Steele.

*** Friday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Huffington Post’s Sam Stein, Harold Ford Jr., Buzzfeed’s Ben Smith, historian Michael Beschloss, Selena Roberts, and Star Jones.

*** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA), NBC’s Tom Brokaw, The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza and Michael Gerson and Stephanie Cutter, Chair, Obama Inaugural Board of Directors.

*** Friday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Atlantic and Reuters columnist Zachary Karabell, Chicago Sun Time’s Lynne Sweet, The Hill’s Ab Stoddard, and The National Journal’s Ron Fournier.

“In an unprecedented move, President Barack Obama’s vaunted political organization is being turned into a nonprofit group — funded in part by corporate money — to mobilize support behind the president’s second-term agenda,” AP reports. Democratic officials familiar with the plan said Thursday the tax-exempt organization will be called Organizing for Action and seek to harness the energy of the president’s re-election campaign for future legislative fights. Officials said the group will be separate from the Democratic National Committee and advocate on key policy issues such as gun control and immigration, train future leaders and devote attention to local issues around the nation. The president’s 2012 campaign manager, Jim Messina, will serve as the group’s national chairman, and White House official Jon Carson is leaving the administration to become its executive director.”

A new organization opposing Chuck Hagel’s nomination to be defense secretary, entitled “Americans for a Strong Defense,” has been created and will run advertisements and grassroots efforts in Arkansas (represented by Dem Sen. Mark Pryor), North Carolina (Dem Sen. Kay Hagan) and Louisiana (Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu).

Connecticut’s governor is meeting with Vice President Biden tonight on the gun-control proposals. He was supposed to attend events earlier in the week but was unable because of other statewide commitments.

Just bizarre… an FDU poll finds 63% of people believe at least one of four conspiracy theories presented to them. Political Wire: “ ‘56% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans say that at least one is likely true. This includes 36% who think that President Obama is hiding information about his background and early life, 25% who think that the government knew about 9/11 in advance, and 19% who think the 2012 Presidential election was stolen.’ Most interesting finding: ‘Generally, the more people know about current events, the less likely they are to believe in conspiracy theories - but not among Republicans, where more knowledge leads to greater belief in political conspiracies.’”

Cabinet shuffle… “The imminent departure of Energy Secretary Steven Chu highlights the political struggle President Obama has faced in trying to enact even a portion of the sweeping clean-energy and climate change agenda he envisioned when he ran for the White House in 2008,” National Journal writes.

Jill Lawrence: “Forget all the caterwauling about women (a bit of which, admittedly, came from me). The impending departures of Labor Secretary Hilda Solis and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar leave President Obama’s Cabinet with zero Hispanics, setting off nervous tremors among Latinos and underscoring the inch-deep Democratic bench in that demographic.”

The president and Michelle Obama went out to Café Milano in Georgetown for the first lady’s birthday. She’s 49.

The Onion is out with an “autobiography” of Joe Biden, written in Joe Bidenese. From the foreword: "Hombre, you've just done Uncle Joe a real solid buying this book. I ain't the kind of guy who forgets his debts. Next time we meet there's a tallboy of ice cold Beast on me."

Susan Davis: “Unproductive and unpopular are two words most often used to describe the previous Congress, but a new description can be used for the new session: inexperienced. A confluence of factors — from a trio of wave elections, redistricting, divisive primaries to even death — kick off a 113th Congress populated by junior lawmakers in both chambers that challenges the conventional wisdom that Washington politics is dominated by entrenched incumbents. Nearly two in five lawmakers in the U.S. House, 39%, have served for less than three years, according to data compiled by the non-partisan Cook Political Report. It's the least experienced House since at least 1995, when an election wave swept the Republicans into power.”

Josh Green looks at the history of debt-ceiling vote. In short, like with many modern political tactician gimmicks, blame it on Newt Gingrich. “In 1979 the problem was solved by a young Democratic congressman from Missouri, Richard Gephardt, who had the thankless task of rounding up votes to raise the ceiling. … Gephardt, who would later become House Democratic leader and twice run for president, devised a simple fix that met the absurd requirement of a two-step process. With help from the House parliamentarian, he established the Gephardt Rule, which decreed that when Congress adopted a budget resolution (the first step) it was automatically ‘deemed to have passed’ a commensurate increase in the debt limit (the second step). Presto. Problem solved. The Gephardt Rule held for a decade and a half, during which there were no fights over raising the debt ceiling. But when Republicans took control of the House in 1995, they killed it.”

More: “Gingrich thought the second vote was a good pressure tactic to limit spending. Yet the threat of debt default didn’t work because nobody took it seriously. What’s different now is that many Republicans seem willing to follow through. Even Gingrich is worried. ‘You can’t risk default,’ he says. ‘I don’t think this is a good place to force the issue.’ Still, he doesn’t regret doing away with the Gephardt Rule. ‘I would favor raising the debt ceiling for only three months at a time as a reminder to Congress as it goes through the appropriations process that you want to minimize the future debt,’ he says.”

National Journal: “Republicans appear to be willing to avoid a showdown over the debt limit and instead use the sequester as their main negotiating lever in upcoming fiscal fights with the White House and Senate Democrats.”

National Journal calls the Republican retreat “a weekend of self help.” It writes: “They are here for three days of events with uplifting titles such as ‘What Happened and Where Are We Now,’ ‘Turning it Around,’ ‘Using Adversity to Our Advantage by Working Together,’ and ‘Sailing Above Rough Seas.’”

This headline symbolizes what’s wrong with the GOP - they had to be told THIS at their retreat: Politico: “GOP pollster: Stop talking about rape.”

Yet some can’t stop being incendiary: PoliticalWire: “Idaho Rep. Ron Mendive (R) ‘drew audible gasps’ when he asked representatives from the American Civil Liberties Union if their pro-abortion rights stance also means that they support prostitution, the AP reports. Mendive said that since the ACLU supports a woman's right to choose abortion, shouldn't the organization also support prostitution, arguing that prostitution also is ‘a woman's choice.’”

Charlie Cook: “Although winning big among white voters and carrying the independent vote is necessary for GOP victories nationally, it’s no longer sufficient to win. … This is simply math. As long as Republicans drive minority voters away, they will not be a nationally competitive party. Sure, congressional district boundaries, as currently drawn, will most likely keep the GOP in the House majority for the duration of this decade and until the 2022 election, the first after the next census. But Republicans had better pray that the 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections go their way and they can get another favorable remapping; otherwise, their situation in the House could change markedly as well.”

Mark Sanford says he talked to his ex-wife first before running. "I sat down with her on the porch and said, 'If you have any thoughts about running for this, then I'm out, because I can't think of anything more disastrous than for a husband and wife to run against each other.' I also told my boys that I wouldn't run if they didn't want me to run." (H/T: Political Wire).

Chris Christie (R-NJ) on the NRA ad: “I think any of us who are public figures, you see that kind of ad and you cringe. … I’m a father who is a public figure, who has four children and my children had no choice realistically in what I decided to do with my career and what effect that has had on their lives. Don’t be dragging people’s children into this. It’s wrong and I think it demeans them and it makes them less of a valid trusted source of information on the real issues that confront this debate.”

Andrew Cuomo gets a 71% favorability rating and a 60% job approval rating.

Do you want your kid’s teacher to keep a gun in her desk? Rand Paul does. "If my kids were at that school, I would have preferred that the teacher had concealed-carry and had a gun in her desk. Is it perfect? No. Would they always get the killer? No. Would an accident sometimes happen in a melee? Maybe. But nobody (at the Connecticut school) had any defense, and he just kept shooting until he was tired and he decided to shoot himself."

Politico: “As President Barack Obama approaches his second inaugural on Monday, he presides over a party that has largely papered over its divisions for the past four years thanks to the president’s commanding popularity.

But almost as soon as the echo of Obama’s inaugural address fades and he becomes a lame duck, Democrats are going to have to face a central and unresolved question about their political identity: Will they become a center-left, Democratic Leadership Council-by-a-different-name party or return to a populist, left-leaning approach that mirrors their electoral coalition?”

“A handful of surviving members of the 35th president’s White House staff came together Wednesday to relive those heady times that have long since passed for American myth. They were invited for a private tour of the exhibit, ‘To The Brink: JFK and the Cuban Missile Crisis,’ on display at the National Archives,” The Boston Globe writes. “Unlike the tourists straining to get a good look at the displays, or leaning in to hear the White House recordings from those 13 dangerous days, theirs were expressions of recognition. They had been there. They played a part in the 1,000 days of Kennedy’s presidency that has come to be

As President Barack Obama is set to begin his second term next week, he finds himself with a job-approval rating above 50 percent and with majorities supporting his general direction on gun control and immigration, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But he also confronts an American public holding mixed attitudes about the next four years, concerns about the economy and a belief that tougher times lie ahead.

Click here for the full poll (.pdf)

It’s a stark reversal from four years ago, when Obama’s first inauguration – despite taking place in the midst of the Great Recession – contained high expectations and seemed more like a “coronation,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

“If 2009 was all about hope, 2013 is about the ability to cope,” Hart adds of the public’s lower expectations about the economy and reducing partisanship in Washington.

General support for Obama’s gun, immigration agenda
In the poll, 52 percent of adults approve of the president’s overall job performance, which is down one point from last month. In addition, 49 percent approve of his handling of the economy, versus 48 percent who disapprove.

What’s more, the public appears to be receptive to the broad outlines of his top agenda items for a second team.

Mandel Ngan / AFP - Getty Images file

President Barack Obama speaks on proposals to reduce gun violence on Jan. 16, 2013 in the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, next to the White House in Washington.

Fifty-six percent believe that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be stricter, compared with a combined 42 percent who want them less strict or kept the same.

That’s the most support on this particular question since 2006, but it’s less than the 60 percent to 70 percent who supported stricter gun laws during the 1990s, including when Congress passed an assault-weapons ban in 1994.

Related: NRA more popular than entertainment industry, poll says

Also, for the first time in the poll, a majority of Americans -- 52 percent -- favor allowing illegal immigrants who hold jobs to apply for legal status in this country.

And in the latest fiscal fight in Washington, more respondents say they would blame congressional Republicans (45 percent) than Obama and congressional Democrats (33 percent) if the nation’s debt limit isn’t raised and the country is unable to meet its obligations.

As for views on Obama’s qualities as president, he gets the best marks for being easygoing and likeable (61 percent give him high marks here), having the ability to handle a crisis (55 percent), being compassionate (53 percent), being knowledgeable and experienced (53 percent) and being a good commander in chief (51 percent).

His lowest marks come on achieving his goals (44 percent give him high marks here), working effectively with Congress (29 percent) and changing business as usual in Washington (28 percent).

'A lack of buoyancy'
Yet looking ahead to Obama’s next four years in office, Americans have tempered their expectations.

The public is split how Obama will fare in a second term, with a majority of respondents -- 51 percent -- saying they’re either “optimistic” or “satisfied.”

By comparison, a combined 48 percent say they are “uncertain” or “pessimistic.”

Asked another way, 43 percent are optimistic about the next four years, while 35 percent are pessimistic; 22 percent have a mixed opinion.

In addition, more than seven in 10 are dissatisfied with the current state of the economy, and just more than a third are either “very” or “fairly” confident in Obama’s ability to promote a strong and growing economy.

And 60 percent believe the coming year will be a time to hold back and save because of harder times ahead, versus 34 percent who instead think it will be a time of economic expansion and opportunity.

“The poll reveals a lack of buoyancy in looking ahead,” Hart, the Democratic pollster, says.

Adds GOP pollster McInturff: “This feels like a long four years, and it feels like a long four years ahead.”

Public continues to sour on Congress, GOP
But if Americans have tempered the expectations for Obama’s second term, they have soured even more on Congress and the Republican Party.

Just 14 percent of adults approve of Congress’ job (which is near the all-time low in the poll), while 81 percent disapprove (which is close to its all-time high).

What’s more, 49 percent hold a negative view of the Republican Party – its highest negative rating in the survey since 2008. Only 26 percent have a positive view.

By comparison, the Democratic Party has a net positive rating, with 44 percent holding a favorable view of the party and 38 percent holding an unfavorable one.

And the conservative Tea Party movement – which took off in Obama’s first year as president – also finds its popularity at an all-time low in the poll, with 23 percent viewing it favorably and 47 percent unfavorably.

On Iraq and Afghanistan
Soon approaching the 10-year anniversary of the Iraq war, nearly six-in-10 say the war wasn't worth it, versus 35 percent who say it was.

Yet asked another way, 55 percent of respondents think the war was successful.

Meanwhile, a narrow majority of Americans – 51 percent – say the war in Afghanistan hasn’t been worth it, though 62 percent believe the war there has been successful

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Jan. 12-15 of 1,000 adults (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

Citing his own experience as a father in the public eye, Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie hammered the National Rifle Association Thursday for referencing the president's daughters in a "reprehensible" and "awful" web ad. 

"To talk about the president's children or any public officers children who have -- not by their own choice, but by requirement -- to have protection, to use that somehow to try to make a political point I think is reprehensible," he said at a news conference in Trenton.  

Christie, who has four children, said that his kids had "no choice, realistically" in his decision to become a public figure and themselves be subject to the media spotlight. 

"I think it's awful to bring public figures' children into the political debate," he said. "They don't deserve to be there. And I think for any of us who are public figures, you see that kind of ad and you cringe."

The web ad, released Tuesday night, questions the president's skepticism of the NRA's proposal to put armed guards in every school in America even though the First Family has Secret Service Protection. 

"Are the presidents’ kids more important than yours?”  a narrator asks in the short video. 

Christie, who was criticized by some on the right for praising the president in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, is up for re-election this year. He is commonly cited as a possible 2016 presidential contender for the GOP. 

The popular governor said Thursday that the controversial advertisement undermines the NRA's credibility as an advocate for gun rights. 

"Don’t be dragging people’s children into this,” he said. “It’s wrong and I think it demeans them and it makes them less of a valid trusted source of information on the real issues that confront this debate."

As Hillary Clinton concludes her four-year tenure as secretary of state, a whopping 69 percent approve of her job, according to a new NBC/WSJ poll.

That includes 92 percent of Democrats, 64 percent of independents and even 41 percent of Republicans who approve of her job.

Just 25 percent disapprove of her job.

That 69 percent approval rating is higher than any other outgoing secretary of state measured in a survey since 1948 -- with one exception: Colin Powell, whose approval rating was at 77 percent per a late 2004 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll. 

This NBC/WSJ poll comes after Clinton -- a potential 2016 presidential candidate -- was hospitalized for a blood clot. It also comes after her State Department was criticized for the attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted Jan. 12-15 -- is released at 6:30 pm ET.

"I don't pick the rooms we meet in.” -- Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) on the optics problem of holding a meeting about how the party can appeal to women and minorities in a room named after an 18^th Century slave-holding family.

Walden heads up the committee responsible for electing Republicans to the House.

House Republicans are holding a panel during their retreat on Friday focused on improving their performance among women and minority voters, who broke against GOP candidates in a slew of battleground races this past election.

The House Republican Conference will convene a panel on Friday morning for their members, called a "Discussion on Successful Communication with Minorities and Women," at their annual retreat in Williamsburg, Va. The discussion is intended to help the GOP reverse its slide among women and minority voters, and foster a future Republican Party that more closely reflects the changing American populace.

A major contributing factor that led to President Barack Obama’s re-election was his strength amongst women and minorities. Huge margins with these groups in states like Ohio and Florida pushed the president to a total of 332 electoral votes and left Republicans to wrestle with how to expand their base beyond a disproportionately white and aging constituency.

Friday's panel, according to the published names, indicate it will include two Latino women, three white men and a Latino moderator. Yet the panel is not without an issue in optics; the room where the discussion will take place is called the “Burwell Plantation” room at the Kingsmill Resort.

In fact, the room is named after the Burwell Family, a wealthy family that owned many slaves in 18th century Southern Virginia. Records pertaining to the families owning of slaves is well-documented by the city of Williamsburg on their website.

Rep. Greg Walden, R-Ore., who heads Republicans' campaign efforts, deflected a question regarding the irony of a panel trying to help the GOP woo minorities happening in a room named after a slave-owning family’s plantation.

"I don't pick the rooms we meet in," Walden said. "I know the Democrats have held their retreats here too and I assume you'll go and figure out if they ever held meetings in that same room."

When pressed on why there were three white men (half the group) on a panel regarding minority outreach Walden said, "Actually, I don't do this part of it, by the way, somebody can fill you in on all the names, but it is more than just three white guys on the panel, and it was filled out after that went to press."

Walden made known that minority outreach and recruiting minority House GOP candidates were a “top priority” and that the GOP had a “good message” for minorities but had suffered from a recent "bad communications."

House Republicans are discussing the prospect of a short-term extension in the nation's debt limit to avoid fault and give negotiations between lawmakers and the White House more time to succeed.

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, the House Budget Committee chairman and erstwhile GOP vice presidential candidate, told reporters at House Republicans' retreat that members were "discussing the virtue of a short term debt limit extension."

Ryan elaborated that the idea would be to raise the nation’s borrowing authority for a few months and tie the matter into discussions with the White House and Senate on the other fiscal issues facing the country, such as the automatic spending cuts associated with the sequester and how to fund the government in the next fiscal year.

The comment is a significant development because it suggests there is movement in the House GOP Conference to avoid the debt limit when it's scheduled to hit in February, and instead shift the political battle in their favor by transforming the debate into a fight over shutting down the government or offsetting $110 billion dollars in cuts to defense and domestic programs.

When asked by NBC News whether he believed the House GOP Conference was unified enough to not have a repeat of the fiscal cliff fiasco, when many Republican lawmakers were reluctant to support plans by the GOP leadership, Ryan said, “We want people to have clear view of what's coming so there are no surprises, that means setting expectations accordingly so we can move forward in a unified basis.”

Ryan spent the morning with House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp, R-Mich., briefing members about the upcoming “triple threat” of fiscal issues to be played out in Washington over the late winter and spring.  GOP aides tell NBC News the talks are part of an effort by the Republican leadership to gauge the mood of the conference as well as map out the best possible path for the party  in the next few months, so far they consider the response from members to be "positive."

The retreat is the House GOP’s annual occasion for members to talk to leadership, relax with their spouses and kids and also learn from communication professionals about to contour their message to fit the electorate. In light of the drubbing the GOP received amongst women and minorities in the 2012 election, the retreat will feature a seminar titled: “Coalitions-Discussion on Successful Communication with Minorities and Women.”

As Washington prepares for a political battle over the Obama White House's proposals to curb gun violence after the Newtown, Conn., shootings, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that the National Rifle Association is more popular than the entertainment industry.

Forty-one percent of adults see the NRA -- the nation's top gun lobby -- in a positive light, while 34 percent view it in a negative light.

By comparison, just 24 percent have positive feelings about the entertainment industry, and 39 percent have negative ones.

The NRA's fav/unfav score is virtually unchanged from its 41 percent-to-29 percent rating in the Jan. 2011 NBC/WSJ poll, nearly two years before the Newtown shootings.

"That seems to me to be a pretty remarkably stable figure," says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart.

But it's a substantial improvement from the 1990s, when the NRA's negative ratings outweighed its positive ones in the NBC/WSJ survey.

The current poll also shows a sharp divide between attitudes among gun owners and non-gun owners.

Among those who own a gun, 62 percent view the NRA favorably. But that percentage drops to just 25 percent among those who don't.

The full poll -- which was conducted Jan. 12-15 of 1,000 adults (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

Obama’s tough sell on guns… Playing the short-term game and a longer-term one… NRA isn’t backing down… NBC/WSJ poll comes out tonight at 6:30 pm ET… Obama’s first four years in office -- then vs. now… What’s the same… And our raw “then” vs, “now” data.

*** A tough sell: For the Obama White House, the easy part was announcing its legislative recommendations to curb gun violence, as it did yesterday. But the hard part will be getting them through Congress -- even the relatively low-hanging fruit like universal background checks -- as well as sustaining the political momentum after the tragic Newtown shootings. Already, Republican lawmakers have rejected the recommendations out of hand, and we’re watching to see how some Democrats (like Sen. Joe Manchin) will be reacting in the weeks ahead. In an op-ed in the Connecticut Post, President Obama admits, as he did yesterday, that this all will be a tough sell. “The truth is, there's only one voice powerful enough to make this happen: yours. If you think we've suffered too much pain to allow this to continue, put down the paper, turn off the computer, and get your members of Congress on record… Ask them why getting an A-grade from the gun lobby is more important than giving parents some peace of mind when they drop their child off for first grade.” And the White House says the president will hit the road to sell these recommendations and keep up the political pressure. What was remarkable about yesterday was how much the president tried to tap into emotions to get a campaign going. Can he keep up that momentum?

Larry Downing / Reuters

The Capitol Dome is seen on Capitol Hill, Nov. 9, 2012. To the left is the U.S. House of Representatives.

*** The short-term game and the long-term one: Yet it’s important to remember that there are two games here. The first is the short-term game to get some of these measures passed through Congress. The second -- if that first game falls short -- is to change the politics of gun violence in the long term. And that’s where the campaigning and sustaining the political momentum come in. By the way, what we’re seeing with Obama’s ambitious gun proposal is a second-term president who’s free of having to run for office again. As USA Today writes, “The beauty of a second term presidency, at least for the man in the Oval Office, is that political calculations become less important as he considers policies he wants to pursue. President Obama's sweeping gun-safety agenda laid out Wednesday reflects just that reality as he called on Americans to get behind a dramatic plan that he believes can help stem gun violence.” Whether it’s been the fiscal-cliff debate, his cabinet picks (like Chuck Hagel), and now these gun proposals, Obama has been more confrontational and less burdened by simple politics.

*** No, I won’t back down: For its part, the National Rifle Association isn’t backing down one bit. In an interview on “TODAY” with NBC’s Savannah Guthrie, the NRA’s David Keene opposed the kind of universal background checks Obama is calling for. Keene also argued that limiting gun magazines to just 10 rounds doesn’t do much to stop a mass shooter. (“It takes a second to change the magazine,” he said.) And he defended its web video that injected the Obama daughters into the gun-violence debate. (“It wasn’t about the president’s daughters,” Keene said about the web video. “It’s about how to keep children safe.”) It was curious to hear Keene’s answer on the magazine -- if it’s not that big of a deal then passing the legislation shouldn’t be a problem, right?

*** NBC/WSJ poll day! How does the American public view the gun-control debate? What are their views about Obama as he begins his second term next week? And what are their impressions about the Republican Party and the Tea Party? Be sure to tune into NBC’s “Nightly News,” or click onto NBCNews.com, beginning at 6:30 pm ET for the answers from our new national NBC/WSJ poll.

*** Obama’s first four years in office -- then vs. now: Speaking of Obama and beginning his second term, one of us has taken a statistical look at the past four years -- where things where as Obama took his first oath of office and where they are now. For starters, there are plenty of numbers suggesting that the country is on more solid footing than it was when he first took office on Jan. 20, 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial average is up 5,550 points since then. The economy is growing (instead of contracting). Consumer confidence has nearly doubled (though it remains below where it was before the Great Recession). And a larger percentage of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction (but a majority still think it’s on the wrong track). On the other hand, there’s data indicating that the nation isn’t better off than it was four years ago – and that the Great Recession continues to take a toll on families. Median household income (adjusted for inflation) is lower than it was in 2009. And more Americans live below the poverty level than they did four years ago.

*** And what’s the same: In addition. some numbers are exactly the same. The current unemployment rate is at 7.8%, which is where it was in Jan. 2009 (though it’s down from a high of 10.0% in Oct. 2009). And right now, there are roughly 49 million Americans without health insurance, which is identical to where it was in 2009. (The health-insurance mandate under the health-care law doesn’t kick in until 2014.) But these might be the most striking figures: The number of U.S. troops in Iraq has dwindled from nearly 140,000 to just 200, while the presence in Afghanistan has increased from 34,000 to 66,000.

*** The raw “then” vs. “now” data:

Unemployment rate
Then: 7.8% (Jan. 2009)
Now: 7.8% (Dec. 2012)

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Then: 7,949.09 (close as of Jan. 20, 2009)
Now: 13,534.89 (close as of Jan. 15, 2013)

Gross Domestic Product
Then: -5.3% (1^st quarter of 2009)
Now: +3.1% (3^rd quarter of 2012)

Consumer Confidence (1985=100)
Then: 37.4 (Jan. 2009)
Now: 65.1 (Dec. 2012)

Americans who believe the country is headed in the right direction
Then: 26% of adults (Jan. 2009 NBC/WSJ poll)
Now: 41% of adults (Dec. 2012 NBC/WSJ poll)

Median household income (adjusted for inflation)
Then: $52,195 (Census data for 2009)
Now: $50,054 (Census data for 2011)

Americans living below the poverty level
Then: 43.6 million (Census data for 2009)
Now: 46.2 million (Census data for 2011)

Americans without health insurance
Then: 49.0 million (Census data for 2009)
Now: 48.6 million (Census data for 2011)

Americans receiving food stamps
Then: 33.5 million (average for 2009)
Now: 46.6 million (average for 2012)

Federal budget deficit
Then: -1.4 trillion (FY 2009)
Now: -$1.1 trillion (FY 2012 projected)

Federal public debt
Then: $10.6 trillion (Jan. 20, 2009)
Now: $16.4 trillion (Jan. 14, 2013)

Federal spending as a percentage of GDP
Then: 25.2% (FY 2009)
Now: 24.3% (FY 2012 projected)

Median sales price of new homes
Then: $208,600 (Jan. 2009)
Now: $246,200 (Nov. 2012)

Number of Democrats in U.S. House of Representatives
Then: 257 (2009)
Now: 201 (2013)

Number of Democrats (plus independents caucusing with Dems) in U.S. Senate
Then: 58 (Jan. 2009)
Now: 55 (Jan. 2013)

Number of Democratic governors
Then: 28 (2009)
Now: 19 (2013)

Number of U.S. troops in Iraq
Then: 139,500 (Jan. 2009)
Now: 200 (Jan. 2013)

Number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan
Then: 34,400 (Jan. 2009)
Now: 66,000 (Jan. 2013)

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*** Thursday’s Daily Rundown’s line-up: Freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL) in our running series meeting the newest members of Congress… Gen. Stanley McChrystal (Ret.) on his new book, his time in Afghanistan, and the threats facing the U.S. going forward… NBC’s John Yang on the Te’o tale… Plus former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH), former NAACP and Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-MD) and USA Today’s Susan Page in the Gaggle.

*** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up:  MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviews Rep. Adam Schiff, Karen Finney & Hogan Gidley, National Journal’s Chris Frates, MSNBC contributor Joy-Ann Reid, and American University professor Stef Woods.

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews NYC Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), Republican political consultant Mary Matalin, Democratic strategist Bob Shrum and The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza.

*** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews The Washington Post’s Nia-Malika Henderson, Democratic strategists Chris Kofinis & David Goodfriend, MSNBC contributor Michael Smerconish.

The AP: “The president’s sweeping, $500 million plan, coming one month after the school massacre in Connecticut, marks the most comprehensive effort to tighten gun laws in nearly two decades. But his proposals, most of which are opposed by the National Rifle Association, face a doubtful future in a divided Congress where Republicans control the House.”

USA Today: “President Obama unveiled the most sweeping set of gun-control proposals in two decades on Wednesday, a package that includes universal background checks on all gun buyers and a renewed ban on ‘military-style’ assault weapons.”

And USA Today makes this point: “The beauty of a second term presidency, at least for the man in the Oval Office, is that political calculations become less important as he considers policies he wants to pursue. President Obama's sweeping gun-safety agenda laid out Wednesday reflects just that reality as he called on Americans to get behind a dramatic plan that he believes can help stem gun violence.”

Politico makes a similar point: “For one of the few instances in his presidency, he now appears willing to burn political capital by pressuring Senate Democrats to vote for a measure that is likely to die in the House, a symbolic victory that sets the stage, he hopes, for more meaningful ones. Along with his tough stances on the debt ceiling, it’s part of a second-term strategy of calculated confrontation: Republicans won’t negotiate with him, so he plans to marshal popular opinion to force them into action.”

So does Ron Brownstein: “The wide-ranging proposals on gun control that Barack Obama is expected to announce tomorrow (Jan. 16) symbolize the change in attitude accompanying his second presidential term. Rapidly accelerating a process that began during his campaign, Obama since November has confidently picked fights with Republicans—and challenged the most conservative members of his own party—on a broad range of foreign-policy and domestic social issues. Besides gun control these include immigration, the pace of withdrawal from Afghanistan and the nomination of Republican senator Chuck Hagel as Defense secretary, a red flag for the GOP’s neo-conservative wing.”

More: Many see Obama’s newfound aggression as a sign that he feels liberated by knowing that he will never again face the voters. … But it also reflects the changing demographics that got Obama re-elected. Since the 1970s Democrats have often been paralyzed by the fear of losing culturally conservative white voters if they moved too far left, particularly on social and foreign-policy issues. And in fact, those voters did stampede away from Obama last November in even larger numbers than in 2008: Exit polls conducted on election day found that Republican Mitt Romney carried over three-fifths of both whites older than 45 and whites without a four-year college degree. Yet Obama not only won without them, but won convincingly.”

Not the facts, ma’am… USA Today: “President Obama's demand Wednesday for research into gun violence could usher in a flood of data on the nation's 32,000 annual gun deaths after decades of an information blackout. Scientists and policy makers say they have little scientific data about gun violence after Congress prohibited federal agencies, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), from offering research grants to study anything that could be used to promote gun control.”

The Hill notes that Obama’s initiating a fight with the NRA and Congress.

As we wrote yesterday, despite how relatively weak Obama’s executive actions are on guns, Republicans are reacting caustically. Here was Rand Paul on Fox accusing Obama of having a “king complex”: “I’m afraid that President Obama may have this ‘king complex’ sort of developing, and we’re going to make sure it doesn’t happen.”

AP: “Despite a relentless workload ahead, President Barack Obama is lighter on his feet in one sense as he opens his second term. Gone are the hundreds of promises of the past. He’s toting carry-ons instead of heavy cargo this time. Obama’s first presidential campaign and the years that followed were distinguished by an overflowing ambition, converted into a checklist of things he swore to do. The list was striking not only for its length but its breadth, ranging from tidbits in forgotten corners of public policy to grand — even grandiose — pronouncements worthy of Moses.”

John Kerry’s confirmation hearing is set for Jan. 24.

“As many as 20 foreign hostages, including an unknown number of Americans, being held at a natural-gas facility in the Algerian desert have escaped their captors, an Algerian official told the Associated Press on Thursday,” USA Today writes.