While all eyes are fixed on the upcoming presidential and vice-presidential debates, the candidates in the tightest Senate races across the country are gearing up for an October slog of face-to-face exchanges.

And in some cases, they’ve already begun. 

Last week, candidates in three of the most closely watched contests -- Virginia, Massachusetts, and Missouri -- faced off for the first time. 

This week, two more fiercely contested contests are holding debates, both in presidential swing states.

Tonight in Reno, Nev., U.S. Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (D) and Sen. Dean Heller (R) take the stage for the first time this season. Both candidates have been camera shy, mostly avoiding the press and TV interviews while their race has primarily played out on the airwaves -- becoming one of the most contentious campaigns in the country.

In July, the House Ethics Committee voted unanimously to investigate Berkley over conflicts of interest and lack of disclosure. Heller said last week “The most unethical, corrupt person I’ve ever met in my life is Shelley Berkley.”

Berkley, meanwhile, is linking Heller to corruption in her latest TV ad. “Meet Eddie Floyd, a crooked businessman who pled guilty to laundering drug money. A friend of Dean Heller’s,” the Berkley ad begins. 

Tonight's Berkley-Heller showdown is the first of three debates between the candidates. They will meet again in Las Vegas on Oct. 11th and on Jon Ralston’s “Face to Face” program on Oct. 15.

In Wisconsin tomorrow night, U.S. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (D) and former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) also will meet for the time. The race has seen as a jolt of competitiveness lately with several polls showing Baldwin surging against Thompson.

Baldwin and Thompson have agreed to two more debates -- on Oct. 18 and Oct. 26, both of which will be broadcast statewide.

Former Nebraska Gov. and U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey (D) and his Republican opponent, state Sen. Deb Fischer (R), will also face off tomorrow night for their second time. In their first match-up, on Aug. 25, both accused the other of kowtowing to partisan interests while championing themselves as a bridge builder.

Kerrey, having served as president of the New School in New York City for 12 years, took on the “carpet bagging” issue.

"This is the second time I've left and come back. And nobody called me a carpetbagger when I came back from Vietnam," he said.

And there will be plenty of other debates next month -- in the Senate contests in Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Maine, and New Mexico. 

Thanks to Don't_Carry_It_All and Frank "Grimey" Grimes for the questions.

Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

VIRGINIA BEACH, VA –- Campaigning at virtually the same time and in the same state as Republican opponent Mitt Romney, President Barack Obama said he wants to use his second term to foster “economic patriotism” in the United States.

Speaking at an outdoor concert pavilion, Obama encouraged voters to believe America could prevail over economic challenges, and, by extension, his own ability to do the same. He used a line first unveiled in a new campaign ad this morning to encompass the sentiment.

"It's time for a new economic patriotism, an economic patriotism rooted in the belief that growing our economy begins with a strong and thriving middle class," he said.

“The truth is it’s going to take a few more years to solve the challenges that were building up over decades. But I want everybody to understand our problems can be solved. Our challenges will be met,” Obama said, praising the resilience of America’s workers and touting his second-term priorities like boosting exports.

The president also gave a few nods to this military-heavy town, lamenting election-season platitudes about patriotism, saying, “in a campaign season you always hear a lot about patriotism” before introducing his new slogan.

He was also introduced to the audience of 7,000 by outgoing Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, a Vietnam veteran and Democrat who gave a passionate endorsement of the president’s military advocacy. 

It’s no surprise that both Obama and Romney converged in Virginia on Thursday -- their ad wars here make it one of the hottest states for political commercials, with four cities among the country’s top ten markets. And there are at least two OFA ads on the air here hitting Romney over his “47 percent” remarks.

Obama has been gaining ground in Virginia lately, with a series of statewide polls suggesting the president leads Romney in this battleground state.

And a new Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation poll on Medicare found Virginia voters said they trusted Obama to deal with the program by a 13-point margin over Romney.

Obama sought to take advantage of his lead on that subject during his remarks Thursday.

“I will never, ever turn Medicare into a voucher. Because no American should have to spend their golden years at the mercy of insurance companies,” he said Thursday, drawing a huge cheer from the crowd.

Alex Wong / Getty Images

Republican U.S. presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks during a Veterans for Romney event at American Legion Post 176 September 27, 2012 in Springfield, Virginia.

Updated 3:05 p.m. - SPRINGFIELD, VA -- Mitt Romney seized upon a report revising economic growth in the second quarter downward as his latest piece of evidence in his ongoing effort to cast President Barack Obama's policies as ineffective at boosting the economy.

“We have to have a strong economy. Right now, Russia’s economy is growing at about 4 percent per year. That’s their GDP growth. Ours was just revised last quarter down to 1.3 percent per year -- about a quarter or a fifth the rate of Russia’s," Romney said. "This is a real challenge for us. And this is not just one quarter. This has been going on now for years."

"Our economy needs to be reinvigorated," Romney continued before an audience of some 300 veterans at an American Legion hall in suburban Washington. "And the president has laid out his plan. It’s a continuation of the old plan. We can’t afford four more years of the last four years, all right?”

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Speaking before an audience that is especially attentive to military spending for its impact on the local economy, Romney highlighted the danger posed by planned defense cuts called for in the bipartisan budget deal.

"The White House proposed the sequestration, a kind of gun-to-your-head opportunity, which is if Congress couldn't get the job done properly and the president couldn't lead them, why they would make devastating cuts to our military," Romney said. "The impact will be immediate, and significant right here in Virginia: 136,000 jobs will be lost in Virginia as a result of this move."

For the second day in a row, Romney and Obama squared off in the same critical swing state. Yesterday, they held dueling rallies in Ohio, and as Romney wrapped up his remarks, the president was preparing for his own rally downstate.

The Republican nominee, trailing in most polls of Old Dominion voters, kept his message focused on the few areas where he retains strength, particularly on dealing with the national debt and the deficit, on which he hammered the president again today, while attempting to present the complex problems posed by a burgeoning debt in understandable prose.

"[President Obama's] plan also calls for trillion dollar deficits," Romney said. "Recognize: trillion dollar deficits. That debt is owned by somebody. Someone holds that. That puts America in a position of economic risk, fiscal risk."

"Even with the interest rates real low, we spend more on interest as taxpayers, paying the government debt than we spend on housing agriculture, education and transportation combined," Romney continued. "Its huge! And its going to get a lot bigger. Particularly if every year we add another trillion dollars to the deficit. "

Obama's campaign, which today began airing a new advertisement highlighting Romney's surreptitiously recorded comments at a fundraiser about 47 percent of Americans he said did not pay taxes and thought of themselves as "victims," issued a statement responding to Romney's remarks which seemed designed to draw attention back to the damaging video.

“Mitt Romney would like Virginians to forget how he disdainfully wrote off half of all Americans, including veterans and active duty members, at a fundraiser with high-dollar donors," said spokeswoman Lis Smith. "[Romney's] policies would be disastrous for America’s military, military families, and veterans and we can’t afford them.”

“On the day we learned that American businesses have created 5.1 million private sector jobs over the last 30 months – 453,000 more than originally thought – Mitt Romney’s desperately cherry picking the data to fit his false narrative," added Obama spokesman Danny Kanner. "The truth is that he opposed the President’s jobs proposal, which could still create as many as 1 million additional jobs, and instead proposed plans that independent economists say would slow the recovery and actually cost us nearly a million jobs."

The Obama campaign has confirmed to First Read that it's airing yet another TV ad on Mitt Romney's "47%" comments -- the third one so far. 

This particular Obama ad -- to air in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia -- is entirely in Romney's own words from that May fundraiser in Florida, where the GOP presidential nominee's remarks were secretly recorded.

With 40 days to go until Election Day, there's fresh economic data. And the numbers -- for President Obama -- are good, bad, and ugly.

First, the good. The Associated Press writes: 

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits plunged 26,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 359,000, a hopeful sign for the job market. It's the lowest level of weekly applications in nine weeks.

Then there's the bad, also per the AP:

The Commerce Department said Thursday that total durable goods orders fell 13.2 percent in August. That's the biggest drop since January 2009 when the U.S. was in recession. Aircraft orders fell by nearly 102 percent, pulling down the headline figure.  

Economists tend to pay more attention to core capital goods, which signal investment plans. Those orders rose 1.1 percent. That's the first increase since May, although it follows steep declines in the previous two months.

And then there's the ugly:

The U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 1.3 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter, held back by the severe drought that reduced farm production in the Midwest. The growth rate was lowered from a previous estimate of 1.7 percent, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

All of these numbers sum up the state of the U.S. economy over the past several months, as well as the challenge here for both Obama and challenger Mitt Romney: The economy is never as good it seems, or as bad. It's somewhere in the middle.

The U.S. Supreme Court term that begins Monday promises to be one of the most important for civil rights in decades, with the potential for blockbuster decisions on issues from race in classrooms and the voting booth to legal recognition for same-sex marriage.

Related: Conservatives warily ponder prospect of an 'Obama court'

Less than a decade after ruling that the nation's colleges and universities can consider the race of student applicants to achieve more racially diverse campuses, a practice now widely used by the nation's selective schools, the court has agreed to take a fresh look.

The new challenge comes from Abigail Fisher, a white student denied admission to the University of Texas at Austin. The school admits the top 10 percent of academic performers from all Texas high schools, then considers the race of applicants as one factor in admitting the remainder of an incoming freshman class.

Evan Vucci / AP

People who waited in line overnight to hear the Supreme Court on a landmark case on health care hold their belongings as they make their way into the court in Washington, Thursday, June 28, 2012.

Fisher did not finish in the top 10 percent at her high school and claims that the consideration of race in reviewing applications cost her a spot at the university. 

"There were people in my class with lower grades, who weren't in all the activities I was in, who were accepted into UT. And the only difference between us was the color of our skin," she said. 

The university, backed by civil rights groups, contends that while the top 10 percent plan achieves some campus diversity, many of its classes would have only a few, if any, black and Hispanic students without additional considerations of race. 

Making it harder to achieve the diversity colleges need, argues Gregory Garre, a Washington, D.C. lawyer representing the University of Texas, "would jeopardize the nation's paramount interest in educating its future leaders in an environment that best prepares them for the society and workforce they will encounter." 

The Supreme Court that will hear the case Oct. 10 is different from the one that upheld a race-conscious admissions program at the University of Michigan law school in 2003. 

"Sandra Day O'Connor was on the court then, and she's been replaced by Samuel Alito, who has much less tolerance for affirmative action," says Tom Goldstein, a Washington, D.C. lawyer who specializes in Supreme Court cases. 

O'Connor, who wrote the decision in the Michigan case, retired from the court in 2006. 

As a result, says Pamela Harris, a former Obama administration official in the Justice Department, "I don't think anyone thinks affirmative action is long for this world." 

Justice Elena Kagan, considered one of the court's liberals, will sit this one out. She was the Obama administration's solicitor general when the Justice Department became involved in the case in the lower courts. 

The Supreme Court will take up another racially charged issue this term if, as seems likely, it agrees to consider efforts to scale back the landmark Voting Rights Act. 

Passed by Congress in 1965 and renewed four times since then, most recently in 2006, a key provision requires states with a history of discrimination at the polls to get federal permission before making any changes to election procedures -- from redrawing congressional district boundaries to changing the locations of polling places. 

Three years ago, the Supreme Court brushed off a challenge to that requirement but strongly suggested that several justices had doubts about its constitutionality, given recent electoral reforms. 

"Things have changed in the South," the court said in 2009. "Blatantly discriminatory evasions of federal decrees are rare." 

Pending cases ask the court to strike down the pre-clearance requirement entirely or throw out the list of areas, consisting of nine entire states, and of 12 cities and 57 counties elsewhere, that must get permission to modify their election procedures. 

The current map, says Bert Rein, a Washington, D.C. lawyer representing Shelby County, Ala., includes some localities that have made substantial reforms while missing other parts of the country that have failed to root out discrimination at the polls. 

As a result, Rein says, the system is unfair. "Florida has been forced into pre-clearance litigation to prove that reducing early voting from 14 days to 8 is not discriminatory, when states such as Connecticut, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania have no early voting at all." 

But Debo Adegbile of the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund says the current map is a close enough fit to cover the areas of greatest concern. 

"Congress is not a surgeon with a scalpel when it acts to legislate across the 50 states. But it can reasonably attack discrimination where it finds it," he says. 

The court is almost certain to take up a host of challenges to the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) signed into law by President Bill Clinton in 1996. 

It defines marriage, for the purposes of federal law, as "only a legal union between one man and one woman as husband and wife." As a result, same-sex couples who get married in the states where such marriages are legal are accorded state and local benefits but miss out on more than 1,100 federal ones. 

After at first defending the law, the Obama administration notified federal courts early last year that it concluded the law was unconstitutional. House Republicans then took up the law's defense. 

A Supreme Court ruling striking down DOMA as discriminatory would not force states to permit same-sex marriage. But it would require the federal government to recognize those marriages where they are legal. 

The court could address the issue of same-sex marriage more directly if it takes up the legal challenge to California's Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage in the state.  

Legal experts differ on whether the court is prepared to go that far, rather than deciding the DOMA issue now and coming back to the constitutionality of gay marriage in a later term. 

"We're not at the point where the Supreme Court will require the state of Mississippi to allow same-sex marriage," says Louis Michael Seidman of the Georgetown University Law Center. 

Among other questions the justices will confront: 

- Must police get a search warrant before taking a blood sample from a suspected drunk driver? 

- How far can police go in using drug-sniffing dogs outside someone's house? 

- Can a 1789 law, the Alien Tort Statute, be used to bring lawsuits in US courts for violations of international law that occur in other countries? 

- And, in an issue of growing interest to U.S. businesses, should more limits be placed on the ability to bring class-action lawsuits?

Obama’s closing TV ad of sorts with 40 days to go… Why? Because voters in 30 states are already voting in some form or fashion… The administration’s evolving statements on Libya… Romney’s evolving statements on health care… This week’s 10 hottest TV markets… Team Romney’s ad-spending edge… But the main Dem Super PAC narrows the gap in September… New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina come out tonight… And both Obama and Romney stump in Virginia.

*** Obama’s closing ad (with 40 days to go): Although we’re 40 days out until Election Day and even though the first presidential debate isn’t until next week, the Obama campaign is going up with a closing TV ad of sorts. In this two-minute TV ad -- to air in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia -- Obama looks to the camera and describes his economic plan, much of what he laid out in his convention speech. Creating a million new manufacturing jobs by giving tax breaks to companies that invest in the United States. Reducing oil imports in half. Hiring 100,000 new science and math teachers. And cutting the deficit in a “balanced” way by raising taxes on the wealthiest. Obama concludes in the TV ad, “It’s time for a new economic patriotism, rooted in the belief that growing our economy begins with a strong, thriving middle class. Read my plan. Compare it to Gov. Romney’s and decide for yourself.” The Romney camp issues this response to the ad, “President Obama’s record is clear: we can’t afford another four years that look like the last four years. Mitt Romney will strengthen the middle class, create 12 million new jobs and deliver what President Obama hasn’t -- a real recovery.”

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

*** Why? Because voters in 30 states are already voting: This new Obama spot has the feeling of a closing TV ad 10 days out from Election Day because, well, the Obama camp believes we’re really 10 days out -- or we’re already there. Indeed, voters in 30 states -- including the battleground states of Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Virginia -- are now casting ballots, either via absentee or early in-person voting, per NBC’s Kyle Inskeep. Today, early in-person voting begins in Iowa and Wyoming, while absentee ballots are now being sent to voters requesting them in Alabama, Wyoming, North Dakota, Iowa, and Illinois. By the end of next week, voters in five more states, including Ohio and Florida, will join this list. The early vote has always been a big part of the Obama ground game, and they are acting on that. And as we predicted in this space months ago, with the airwaves soooo saturated, campaigns are going to have to look for different ways to break through, and one of those ways is a two-minute spot. Don’t be surprised if someone tries the five-minute ad, especially on the Senate level.

*** The administration’s evolving statements on the attack in Libya: But while Team Obama is quickly seizing on all of the early voting, it was just as slow in labeling the attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya as an act of terrorism. The Washington Post runs a good timeline on the Obama administration’s evolving statements when it comes to describing what happened in Libya (first saying it wasn’t planned or pre-meditated to now acknowledging it was an act of terrorism). The most CHARITABLE explanation for these evolving statements is that the information the administration received simply changed or wasn’t complete. The most UNCHARITABLE explanation is that the White House was slow to admit the attack was terrorism due to the upcoming election. In all of this, perhaps the biggest mistake was sending out U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice to all the Sunday morning shows -- days after the attack -- saying, “We do not have information at present that leads us to conclude that this was premeditated or preplanned.” And given what apparently U.S. intelligence officials feared just 24 hours after the attack, Susan Rice either intentionally misled the public or was misled herself by briefers. You have to wonder, if Obama wins re-election, if Rice’s chances of being Secretary of State in a second term are collateral damage from all of this simply because Senate GOPers may want someone to go after in the aftermath of losing.

*** Romney’s evolving statement on health care: Speaking of evolving, don’t miss what Mitt Romney told NBC’s Ron Allen when he was asked why he’s struggling to connect to middle-class Americans. "I think throughout this campaign as well, we talked about my record in Massachusetts, don't forget -- I got everybody in my state insured," Romney said, per NBC’s Garrett Haake. "One hundred percent of the kids in our state had health insurance. I don't think there's anything that shows more empathy and care about the people of this country than that kind of record." Of course, if you’ve been following this race for the past year-plus, you know that Romney rarely talks about his signature achievement while governor of Massachusetts. The irony here is that Romney appears to be losing this race precisely because he never really talked about his health-care law until now. It was a bipartisan accomplishment he could contrast with the very partisan last three years in Washington (Ted Kennedy was standing next to him!!!). But he walked away from it. And just asking, but if insuring everyone is a demonstrating of empathy, what happens when you promise to repeal a law insuring all Americans? By the way, given how easily Romney went to his health-care law in a question that was NOT about health care but empathy, he gives the impression of someone who wants to scream from the rooftops, “Yes, you are gosh darn right I supported a mandate, and I’d do it again!” But he can’t…

*** This week’s 10 hottest markets -- dominated by Virginia and Ohio: On Tuesday, both Obama and Romney were in New York. On Wednesday, they campaigned in Ohio. And today, both men will be in Virginia. Indeed, seven of this week’s 10 hottest advertising markets (in terms of advertising points from Sept. 24-30) are in either Virginia or Ohio. And just two other states (Wisconsin and Florida) represent the other three. Here’s this weeks’ list:
1. Madison, WI: Obama 1540/Restore 1480/Romney 940/Priorities USA 860
2. Orlando: Obama 1700/Romney 1240/AJS 890/Crossroads 620/Priorities 250
3. Cleveland: Romney 1540/Obama 1500/AJS 710/Priorities 440/Crossroads 400
4. Tampa, St. Pete: Obama 1710/Romney 1300/AJS 670/Crossroads 480/Priorities 280
5. Washington, DC: Obama 1800/Romney 1500/AJS 570/Crossroads 250
6. Roanoke-Lynchburg: Romney 1500/Obama 1340/AJS 670/Crossroads 530
7. Norfolk-Portsmouth: Obama 1450/Romney 1440/AJS 730/Crossroads 215/Priorities 200
8. Dayton: Romney 1540/Obama 1390/Crossroads 570/AJS 360
9. Richmond-Petersburg: Romney 1475/Obama 1360/AJS 490/Crossroads 400/Priorities 230
10. Toledo: Romney 1500/Obama 1110/AJS 680/Crossroads 270/Priorities 330

*** Team Romney’s ad-spending edge: It’s worth noting that Obama’s lead in the current polls comes as the GOP continues to enjoy an ad-spending advantage in the presidential race. This week -- from Sept. 24-30 -- Team Romney (campaign and outside groups) are outspending Team Obama (campaign and outside groups), $24.4 million to $18.6 million. Last week’s GOP edge was a bit smaller, $22 million to $19.3 million. In the general election to date, more than $650 million has been spent on ads, with Team Romney at $356 million and Team Obama at $308 million.

*** The Outsiders: And speaking of all the ad spending, it increasingly looks like the main pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action is narrowing the outside-group gap. In August, American Crossroads, Crossroads GPS, and Restore Our Future spent $25 million to Priorities’ $4 million. But so far in September, that ratio has narrowed to $24 million to $9.4 million. (But this comparison doesn’t include outside spending by GOP-leaning groups like Americans for Jobs Security and Ending Spending.) By the way, Priorities USA and AFSCME are pairing up with a new radio ad hitting Romney on “47%.” But it is worth asking: Given the Romney campaign problems of message discipline, does a conglomerate of advertising confuse things even more?

*** New polls coming out tonight! Heads up: We will be releasing the results of new NBC/WSJ/Marist battleground polls of Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina beginning at 6:30 pm ET tonight.

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign event at the Bowling Green State University on September 26, 2012 in Bowling Green, Ohio.

*** On the trail: Obama holds a rally in Virginia Beach at 11:50 am ET… Romney stumps in Springfield, VA at noon ET… Paul Ryan raises money in Tennessee… Ann Romney campaigns in Reno, NV… And Tagg Romney is in North Carolina.

Countdown to 1^st presidential debate: 6 days
Countdown to VP debate: 14 days
Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 19 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 25 days
Countdown to Election Day: 40 days

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*** Thursday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up: Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) on the candidates both being in battleground Virginia today… NBC’s Pete Williams with the latest on the Pennsylvania voter ID fight… NBC’s Mike Isikoff with surprising news on the fundraising front… Latest 2012 trail news and analysis with NBC’s Mike Viqueira, GOP ad-maker Brad Todd, America Bridge’s Rodell Mollineau, and Jill Zuckman, former spokeswoman for Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

*** Thursday's "Jansing & Co." line-up: MSNBC's Chris Jansing interviews  author & investigative journalist Carl Bernstiein, Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet, former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, former Michigan Gov. John Engler, Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf, Politico’s Roger Simon, and Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz.

*** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up:  MSNBC’S Thomas Roberts talks with DNC Chair, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, MSNBC Contributors Meghan McCain & Ron Reagan, and former Pirates CEO Kevin McClatchy. Power Panelists include the Washington Post’s Nia Malika Henderson, former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, and former Santorum Press Secretary Alice Stewart.

*** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Deputy NYC Mayor Howard Wolfson, Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Josh Tyrangiel, Politico’s Lois Romano, MSNBC Political Analyst Richard Wolffe, New York Times Washington Bureau Chief David Leonhardt, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews MSNBC Mideast Diplomacy Analyst Dennis Ross, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah, former U.S. Treasury Advisor Steven Rattner, Time’s Michael Crowley and The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza and Jonathan Capehart.

*** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Mark McKinnon, Chris Kofinis, Dave Zirin, and Jonathan Alter

The latest polls: In PA, Franklin and Marshall has Obama up 52-43%.

Ad spending in this presidential election is now up to $664 million, with Team Romney (the campaign and groups that support him) outspending Team Obama $355.6 million to $307.9 million. This week, $44 million is being poured into battleground-state advertising with Team Romney outspending Team Obama $25.6 million to $18.6 million.

But a couple of little-noticed facts about outside spending -- despite all the help the Crossroads groups have given Romney, they essentially went dark in August. Crossroads GPS wasn’t on air for three weeks between mid-August and the first week of September. And American Crossroads wasn't on air at all in August and the first week of September, right at the time that President Obama began to see leads. \

And Restore Our Future’s (the principal pro-Romney Super PAC) spending has plummeted from August to September, going from $23 million to just $3 million. Priorities USA, which supports the president, has more than doubled its spending from just about $4 million in August to more than $9 million this month so far.

OUTSIDE GROUP SPENDING BY MONTH
Restore $23.2 million (Aug), just $3 million (Sept)
Priorities $3.8 million (Aug), $9.4 million (Sept)
Am Cross $0 (Aug), $15.4 million (Sept)
Cross GPS $1.7 million (Aug), $6 million (Sept)

Here’s a look at how the states break down (since March 19):
Florida - $135.7M
Ohio - $129.3M
Virginia - $103.4M
N. Carolina - $61.5M

Colorado - $61.3M
Iowa - $51.6M
Nevada - $40.9M
NH - $29.9
Wisconsin - $17.5
Pennsylvania - $19.3M
Michigan - $10M
Minnesota - $3.2M

“Mitt Romney on Wednesday cited his record in shepherding through the Massachusetts health care law as a sign of his empathy for all people, talking far more openly than usual about a controversial plan that has caused him so much strife with conservative Republicans,” The Boston Globe writes.

Romney said in an interview with NBC: “Don’t forget -- I got everybody in my state insured. One hundred percent of the kids in our state had health insurance. I don’t think there’s anything that shows more empathy and care about the people of this country than that kind of record.”

The Globe: “Romney made the comments just before going on stage in Toledo, for a rally in which Romney used President Obama’s health care law as a chief example of what’s wrong with the current administration. The dichotomy of his statements further illustrated the tightrope Romney has had to walk in pledging to repeal President Obama’s federal law, while simultaneously trying to take credit for the state-level plan he signed into law in Massachusetts.”

AP: “Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is pointing to his Massachusetts health care law as evidence that he has empathy for ordinary Americans. Romney usually avoids talking about the health care law he championed as Massachusetts governor because President Barack Obama cites it as the basis of his own federal health care law. Republicans reject what they call ‘Obamacare’ as a costly government takeover.”

Bloomberg: “The sale of DoubleClick shares received before the company went public, detailed in previously unreported securities filings reviewed by Bloomberg News, sheds new light on Romney’s estate planning -- the art of leaving assets for heirs while avoiding taxes. The Republican presidential candidate used a trust considered one of the most effective techniques for the wealthy to bypass estate and gift taxes. The Obama administration proposed cracking down on the tax benefits in February. While Romney’s tax avoidance is both legal and common among high-net-worth individuals, it has become increasingly awkward for his candidacy since the disclosure of his remarks at a May fundraiser. He said that the nearly one-half of Americans who pay no income taxes are ‘dependent upon government’ and ‘believe that they are victims.’”

“Republican Mitt Romney is struggling in swing-state Iowa at a perilous point: just as voters here start casting early ballots in the presidential race,” AP writes. “President Barack Obama has a clear lead in Iowa opinion polls, helped by the fact that the state's economy is far more robust than other battleground states. The president's polling edge is so wide it has prompted grumbling among Iowa Republicans who fault Romney for failing to take advantage of Obama's standing, which had been weakened in the four years since Iowa launched his bid for the White House in 2008.”

“New Republican-leaning independent groups entered the presidential advertising fray Wednesday as polling suggests Mitt Romney's campaign may be losing ground against President Obama in key swing states,” AP writes. “The commercials, aimed at voters who supported Obama in 2008 but are undecided now, join those from the campaigns and outside groups swamping a narrow map of competitive states in the presidential contest. Americans for Job Security launched an ad in six swing states as part of an $8.7 million ad buy disclosed last week. The group, which does not have to disclose its donors, has actively supported Republican congressional candidates but has stayed out of the presidential campaign until now. The Ending Spending Action Fund, a new conservative group bankrolled by billionaire Joe Ricketts, was set to debut a $10 million, four-state ad campaign beginning Thursday.”

“President Barack Obama is pitching a broad economic argument to voters ahead of next week’s debate with Republican opponent Mitt Romney, buying TV time in seven battleground states to promote what he calls a ‘new economic patriotism,’” AP writes. “In a two-minute ad, Obama looks into the camera as he promotes an economic plan he says will create 1 million manufacturing jobs, cut oil imports and hire thousands of new teachers.”

Washington Post’s Kessler with a timeline of Libya, Egypt events: “In any kind of confused overseas event, initial reports are often wrong. But the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya, in which four Americans were killed, including the ambassador, is a case study of how an administration can carefully keep the focus as long as possible on one storyline — and then turn on a dime when it is no longer tenable. For political reasons, it certainly was in the White House’s interests to not portray the attack as a terrorist incident, especially one that took place on the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Instead the administration kept the focus on what was ultimately a red herring — anger in the Arab world over anti-Muslim video posted on You Tube.”

The Wall Street Journal editorial page also criticizes Obama and the White House for its response to the Libya attacks – whether it was a terrorist attack or not, whether they’re was adequate security or not.

TOLEDO, OH -- Mitt Romney on Wednesday pointed to the health care reform law he enacted as governor of Massachusetts as proof of his empathy and care for the American people.

In an interview with NBC News, Romney referenced an element of his record he almost never invokes on the campaign trail to answer a question about how he can better connect with Americans and prove he understands the lives and trials of middle class Americans.

"I think throughout this campaign as well, we talked about my record in Massachusetts, don't forget -- I got everybody in my state insured," Romney told NBC's Ron Allen in an interview before his rally here tonight. "One hundred percent of the kids in our state had health insurance. I don't think there's anything that shows more empathy and care about the people of this country than that kind of record."

Romney's health care law in Massachusetts has long been a lightning rod issue for conservatives, who unfavorably compare it to President Barack Obama's own federal law and as a damning reflection on Romney's conservative bonafides.

The former Massachusetts governor also touched on another portion of his biography that he seldom discusses to connect with average Americans: his time as a Mormon pastor.

"I think people have the chance, who watched our Republican convention, to see the lives that I've had a chance to touch during my life, to understand that as I served as a pastor of a congregation with people of all different backgrounds and economic circumstances that I care very deeply about the American people, people of different socio-economic circumstances," Romney told Allen.

Taking the stage for the final rally of his two-day Ohio bus tour moments later, Romney also spoke about the importance of compassion in his speech and said his interactions with Americans from all lots in life have shown him the greatness of America -- and that everyone has challenges of their own.

"You look around, you see everybody, they look happy, and you think everybody else is doing just fine, and you're the only one with problems. But the truth is, most people that you see have some real challenges in their life of one kind or another. I understand that," Romney said. "And I've seen that inside the heart of the American people, despite our challenges, is a conviction that this nation is the greatest nation in the history of the earth."

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

Updated 6:16 p.m. - Just about 22 miles along I-75 separated President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s events Wednesday in northwest Ohio, the corner of a well-worn swing state that could foretell the outcome of November’s election.

Obama spoke this afternoon at Bowling Green State University, a college just a short drive south from nearby Toledo, where Romney held a rally early Wednesday evening. The candidates’ dueling rallies signify the importance of a specific and shrinking slice of undecided voters in battleground states like Ohio, where state-level polling mirrors what is happening nationally, with Romney falling behind and needing to quickly make up ground. 

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

Putting his mission bluntly, the GOP nominee told the Cleveland Plain Dealer on Wednesday: "Ohio voted for Barack Obama the last time, so to win I've got to get people who voted for him the last time to vote for me this time." 

"I'm going to win Ohio," Romney predicted to NBC News in an interview before his rally in Toledo.

For Obama, today’s trip to the area was just his latest since stopping in Toledo on Labor Day; he and Vice President Joe Biden are frequent visitors to the state. Romney, meanwhile, spent the day capping a bus tour that had taken him and vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan throughout the Buckeye State over the past few days. 

The recent swing through Ohio couldn’t be of more importance to the Republican ticket. A Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday found Obama handily leading Romney among the state’s likely voters, 53 to 43 percent. 

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama waves at supporters after speaking at a campaign rally at the Bowling Green State University on September 26, 2012 in Bowling Green, Ohio.

That’s a wider margin compared to two weeks ago, when Obama led Romney by seven points -- 50 to 43 percent -- in the NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll of Ohio’s likely voters. 

The Romney campaign insisted Tuesday it has “confidence in our data and our metrics” showing a more competitive race, but public polling suggests Romney and Ryan have to make up ground if they hope to win this crucial battleground state in just less than six weeks. 

Speaking in Bedford Heights Wednesday afternoon, Romney launched into a stock attack on the president, and a lionization of business. 

“A lot of people can talk. Talk is cheap. You can be extraordinarily eloquent and describe all the wonderful things you can do, but when you cut through the words you can look at the record, and when you can see policies that have not created the jobs America needs, then you know it’s time to choose a new leader, get a new coach, get America growing again,” Romney said before departing for his later event in downtown Toledo. 

At the same time, Obama was speaking in the Toledo area, where he looked to exploit his apparent advantage over Romney (for now) by exhorting attendees of his rally to take advantage of early voting when it begins Oct. 2. 

"I need you to register to vote. I need you to start voting,” Obama concluded at his rally on the college campus. 

The president told the crowd at Bowling Green that if the student who introduced him – who, according to Obama, put off treatment for a broken wrist earlier in the day to fulfill his obligations at the rally – could grit his teeth through an injury, they had no excuse not to register to vote. 

The dueling rallies in Northwest Ohio, separated by just a few hours and just a few miles, are just one high-profile example of the bombardment voters there have endured during the past few presidential election cycles. It’s well-documented that no Republican in recent political history has won the presidency without winning Ohio and for Romney, his narrow Electoral College map would become even more challenging were he to lose the state. 

David Richard / AP

Diane Champion, owner of A. H. Marty Co., listens to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney during a campaign stop at American Spring Wire, Wednesday, Sept. 26, 2012, in Bedford Heights, Ohio.

It’s no surprise, then, that Obama and Romney overlapped there Wednesday, especially given the local population, which represents somewhat of a microcosm of the voters for which the two candidates will tussle this fall. 

The region is a hub for the auto industry and component businesses, and the president is quick to boast of his decision to bail out the auto industry (a decision which Romney opposed) when campaigning in the area. Toledo, nicknamed the “Glass City” for its tradition in producing that product, has sought to refashion itself as a manufacturer of solar panels, an industry which has benefited from Obama’s renewable-energy initiatives. 

“When my opponent just said we should ‘Let Detroit go Bankrupt,’” Obama told the crowd in Bowling Green, referencing Romney’s infamous 2008 op-ed for the New York Times, “that would've meant walking away from an industry that supports one in eight Ohio jobs.” 

But while Obama has been the beneficiary of growing economic optimism throughout Ohio, where the unemployment rate sunk to 7.2 percent in August, the jobless rate in the Toledo area is higher – 8.1 percent – through the end of July, the most recent month for which local statistics are available. 

“When manufacturing leaves it’s very hard to bring it back. And we’ve lost manufacturing again and again and again. And some people say oh, that’s fine, ‘We'll just do the engineering and the high-end things,’” Romney said at his Cleveland-area event. “But let me tell you: Ultimately the engineering and the high-end things go where the manufacturing is, because ideas and engineering and innovation are associated with manufacturing. We have to have manufacturing here and my policy will be to bring it back."

According to the latest Census, the median household income of about $42,000 for Lucas County, which includes much of the Toledo metro area, is less than the statewide average of $47,300. Eighteen percent of people in the county live below the poverty level, and just 23 percent of the area’s residents over the age of 25 have achieved a bachelor’s degree or higher. In addition, the area has long been a stronghold for white Catholics, a prized voting bloc for both campaigns this cycle. 

In short, the area is a cross-section of the swing voters both Romney and Obama have assiduously courted in various battleground states this year. 

Underscoring that fact, Toledo is the eighth-hottest media market for campaign ad spending in the general election, according to NBC News ad-tracking sources.  And it is the 10^th-hottest media market just this week. The Romney campaign and its supporters have spent about $1 million on Toledo’s airwaves this month, while Obama’s campaign and its supporters have spent more than $760,000. 

It’s also one of the areas where the Obama campaign and supportive super PACs blanketed the airwaves early this summer criticizing Romney as a pioneer of outsourcing and for allegedly dodging tax laws. 

Today’s poll from Ohio suggests those attacks have paid long-term dividends for Obama. Fifty-seven percent of likely voters said they didn’t think that Romney cared about the needs and problems of people like them; 51 percent said they thought Obama would do a better job handling the economy, versus 45 percent of Ohio voters who said that of Romney. 

Almost five months ago, in late March, Romney led Obama, 49 to 40 percent, among Ohioans on the question of who would better handle the economy.

President Obama believes the violence in Libya was a terrorist attack, White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters today, the first explicit acknowledgement of the president's view on the nature of the attack.

"It is certainly the case that it is our view as an administration, it is the presidents view, that it was a terrorist attack," Carney said during a gaggle with reporters aboard Air Force One Wednesday morning.

His administration's view for about a week has in fact been that the attack was an act of terrorism, but the president himself has refrained from characterizing it as such, even when asked point-blank about it during an interview that aired Tuesday on ABC's "The View."

Asked by co-host Barbara Walters whether the attack was terrorism, the president responded, "There's no doubt that the kind of weapons that were used, the ongoing assault, that it wasn't just a mob action."

And during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday the president referred to the deadly Benghazi consulate attack as an “assault on America” but stopped short of calling it terrorism. 

The president’s seeming reluctance to use the term “terrorism” was further highlighted by comments Libyan President Mohammed Magarief made to NBC’s Ann Curry during an interview that aired Thursday. 

Magarief did not back down from labeling the attack as terrorism even while trying to walk a fine line.

“This is how I am calling it as…a Libyan official," he said. "But it is for President Obama, Secretary Clinton to describe the way they like and they feel right. I mean, you have your terminology.  And we have our terminology.  It's an act of terror."

Magarief also contradicted the White House and other administration officials on the nature of the attack saying that outrage over a controversial movie about the prophet Muhammad had “nothing to do with this attack.”

Today Carney repeated that the investigation into the Benghazi attack was “ongoing.”  He continued that the administration has provided information “Not based on speculation, but based on what we know.”

We are gearing up for our next installments of Inside the Boiler Room! If you have any questions for Mark and Domenico please post them below.

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BOWLING GREEN, OHIO -- Air Force One had a bit of a bumpy ride from Andrews Air Force Base to the Toledo Express airport today. The small group of journalists traveling aboard AF1 with the president reported that it took two attempts to land in Ohio.  According to the print pool report:

Just as the plane was about to land in Toledo, amid turbulence and midway thru gaggle, --runway was visible --AF1 ascended and made another pass. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, after consulting with crew, returned to press cabin and said the issue was weather related.

The Weather Channel is reporting, via the Federal Aviation Administration, that today's turbulence forecast called for low level turbulence in the Toledo area. When the president departs the Toledo airport later this afternoon, the visibility is expected to be about three miles. He’ll land at the Akron-Canton Regional airport a little after 3:00 pm ET today for another campaign event and be greeted with a 90% chance of showers and possible thunderstorms.

WESTERVILLE, Ohio -- With a prop of a giant national debt clock spinning above $16 trillion behind him, Mitt Romney used the nation's spiraling deficit to attack President Obama's economic stewardship at the first stop of his Ohio bus tour this morning.

"When he came into office, there was just over $10 trillion in debt. Now there's over $16 trillion in debt. If he were re-elected, I can assure you it will be almost $20 trillion in debt," Romney said. "And by the way, those debts get passed on to our kids. It's not just bad for the economy; it's not just bad for our job creation; it will -- in my opinion, it is immoral for us to pass on obligations like that to the next generation."

The debt-focused attack comes amid new polling from the New York Times/CBS News/Quinnipiac University showing Romney trailing Obama by 10 points in Ohio, but continuing to lead on the issue of who would best handle the national debt and deficit.

Alex Wong / Getty Images

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney arrives at a campaign rally at Westerville South High School as a national debt clock runs in the background September 26, 2012 in Westerville, Ohio.

Top Romney aides said Tuesday that they don't base campaign decisions on public polls, but if today's rally was any indication, Romney's own polling data must show similar strength on the issue of the debt and deficits, as it took on an outsize role in his standard stump speech.

"And by the way, do you know what the interest bill is on that debt?" Romney continued. "The interest that you're paying on that debt every year is more than we pay for housing, for agriculture, for education, and transportation combined."

The former Massachusetts governor went on to argue that the Federal Reserve is artificially keeping interest rates low, and that a rise in rates could be catastrophic for the government and, eventually, American families.

"That bill’s going to get bigger and bigger. It is crushing. That’s the course this president has put us on,” Romney said.

While Romney did not lay out specifics of his budgetary and deficit-reduction plans today, they center on reforming Medicare, sending some programs like Medicaid back to states, and pegging their growth to inflation, along with slashing domestic spending. He also plans to preserve military spending rates and has proposed a 20% across-the-board tax cut.

A former head of the Congressional Budget Office, Robert D. Reischauer, weighed in on Romney and President Obama's deficit reduction plans in today's New York Times:

“The proposals by Romney are politically unachievable, and the president’s proposals, while achievable, are too modest,” he told the newspaper.

The Obama campaign also weighed in on the event. "There's only one candidate in this race who has a plan to reduce the deficit and that's President Obama. He's already signed $1 trillion in spending cuts into law and proposed a plan that would reduce the deficit by more than $4 trillion over the next decade," Obama campaign spokesperson Lis Smith said in a statement. "Mitt Romney's $5 trillion in tax cuts weighted toward the wealthiest Americans would either explode the deficit or raise taxes on the middle class by cutting tax deductions middle class families rely on, like those for mortgage interest, children, and charitable contributions."

Romney's appearance here today before a crowd of some 2,000 supporters -- in which he was introduced by golf legend Jack Nicklaus -- marks the first of three stops today on Romney's two-day Ohio bus tour. Today's appearances will mark his 11th day campaigning in this critical state, which no Republican has won the presidency without capturing.

Ray Craig, a retired Navy veteran seeing Romney for the first time this morning rated the former Massachusetts governor positively.

"I think he got more fire in his belly today," Craig said.

New polls and TV ads show the impact that “47%” has had on the race… Romney and Obama camps battle over China… Examining Romney’s troubles in Ohio… Romney yesterday: Obama DID NOT raise taxes?... Obama tells the Des Moines Register: Presidential election will send a message to Congress… The GOP’s surprisingly uphill climb to win the Senate… First Read’s Top 10 Senate takeovers… McCaskill hits Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments in new TV ad… And good donors vs. bad donors.

Brian Snyder / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks at a campaign rally in Dayton, Ohio September 25, 2012.

*** The impact of 47%: Want to know the impact that the video of Mitt Romney’s comments on the “47%” have had in this presidential contest? We have two fresh pieces of evidence. The first are brand-new New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac surveys -- conducted right after the release of the video -- showing Obama leading Romney by nine points among likely voters in Florida (53%-44%), 10 points in Ohio (53%-43%), and 12 in Pennsylvania (54%-42%). These are margins we haven’t seen before. The second (and perhaps more telling) piece of evidence is Romney’s new 60-second TV ad, his first of the general election where he looks to the camera. “President Obama and I both care about poor and middle-class families,” Romney says as the camera zooms in on him. “The difference is my policies will make things better for them. We shouldn’t measure compassion by how many people are on welfare. We should measure compassion by how many people are able to get off welfare and get a good paying job.” Folks, this is an admission that the “47%” remarks – and the Obama camp’s new TV ads on them -- have done real damage. Realize: Candidate-to-camera ads are typically when all else is failing and the bonds of trust with the voters are fraying. Even Obama had to do it in late July, after the welfare hits and the “You didn’t build that” attack.

*** When a race becomes a referendum on the challenger: Want another example? Look no farther than this quote in Bloomberg’s write-up of its new national poll showing Obama ahead of Romney by six points (49%-43%) among likely voters. “‘If I have to choose between the two, I prefer Barack over Mitt,’ said Stephanie Martin, a 41-year-old insurance agent in Glasgow, Virginia, who describes herself as a libertarian. ‘I think Mitt Romney is just so out of touch. It’s mostly a protest against him and the Republican establishment; it’s not that I think Obama has done such a great job.’” So let’s get this straight: Obama is the incumbent president, presiding over a sluggish economy in a hotly partisan environment, and this woman is casting the protest vote against Mitt Romney and the GOP? We know this is just one anecdote, but wow…

*** Battling over China: Romney’s other response to “47%” is his campaign’s increasingly tough rhetoric on China. "I'm not afraid of trading with other nations,” Romney said while campaigning in Ohio yesterday, per NBC’s Garrett Haake. “But I also understand that when people cheat, that kills jobs. China has cheated.” And this comes on the heels of a recent Romney TV ad asserting “Obama had years to stand up to China. We can’t afford four more.” But the Obama camp is countering with its own TV ad, “Tough on China? Not Mitt Romney.” Also, Team Obama last night circulated a Boston Globe story reporting, “Less than two weeks before an investment firm controlled by Mitt Romney decided to invest in a China-based home appliance company, the company put out a detailed document to investors promoting itself as a low-wage, low-tax firm that would not be subject to taxes in the United States.” And today when he’s campaigning in Ohio, per NBC’s Ali Weinberg, President Obama will discuss how his administration has taken action to hold China accountable when it comes to trade.

*** Romney’s troubles in Ohio: As alluded to above, today’s major campaign-trail activity takes place in Buckeye State. Romney concludes his bus tour in the state (hitting Westerville, Bedford Heights, and Toledo), while Obama holds rallies at Bowling Green State and Kent State University. And here is something to chew on given that New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac poll: Ohio has been a problem for Romney the day he got into the race, even during the primary season. Remember that Romney edged Rick Santorum by just one point in the Buckeye State during the GOP primary season, 38%-37%. The fact is, this bus tour has to do more than stop the bleeding for Romney in Ohio; it has to be the beginning of a turnaround for him in this state. Losing Ohio isn’t checkmate but, it’s close

*** Obama didn’t raise taxes? Yesterday in Ohio, Romney said this: “I admit this: [Obama’s] got one new idea that he did not do in his first four years that he says he’s going to do in the next four years -- which is he's going to raise taxes. And is there anybody who thinks that raising taxes is going to help grow the economy?” Read that again: Romney says that Obama DID NOT raise taxes in his first term, even though he’s said time and time again that Obama DID raise taxes (in the health-care law, etc.). And the Weekly Standard took Romney to task, arguing that Obama has raised taxes. A Romney campaign spokeswoman follows up with the Weekly Standard, “President Obama has raised taxes on millions of middle-class Americans during his first term in office.  Governor Romney was clearly communicating about an additional tax increase President Obama is proposing.”

*** Obama: Presidential election will send a message to Congress: By the way, with Iowa beginning its early voting on Thursday, Obama gives an exclusive interview to the Des Moines Register. “Obama said if he’s fortunate enough to win a second term, his re-election will send a message to Republicans that Americans want them to follow his strategies, and that includes aiding the economy by spending on education and roads and bridges. ‘What I think most Iowans certainly believe,’ the president said in a telephone interview with The Des Moines Register, ‘is that if the majority of the American people have said, “This is the direction we need to go,” and the Republicans in Congress say, “No, we’re going to go in the exact opposite direction,” that’s probably not going to leave them to keep that majority too long.’”

*** The GOP’s surprisingly uphill climb to win the Senate: With Todd Akin (R) now staying in Missouri’ Senate contest -- increasing the chances of Claire McCaskill (D) winning re-election -- Republicans now face an even steeper climb to win control of the U.S. Senate in November.  If President Obama wins the presidential contest, Republicans would need to pick up a net of four Senate seats to get the majority. And here are their best chances (in order): Nebraska, Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Virginia, Connecticut, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Missouri. If you assume that Angus King (I) wins in Maine and caucuses with the Democrats, then Republicans must win five of these 10 races. If Elizabeth Warren wins in Massachusetts, then the GOP has to win six. So that’s the challenge for the GOP. The good news is that things have gotten better for them in Maine, where they have beaten up King in TV ads; the question now is if they can get the Democratic number in this three-way race into double digits.

*** First Read’s Top 10 Senate takeovers:

1. Nebraska (D): Unlike the other Dems running, Bob Kerrey is getting no traction
2. Maine (R): This is no longer a slam dunk for Angus King
3. Montana (D): Why Montana over North Dakota? Tester is an incumbent with a record
4. North Dakota (D): See above
5. Massachusetts (R): This is the nastiest race in the country right now
6. Wisconsin (D): Who would you rather be -- Tommy Thompson or George Allen? We think you’d rather be Thompson
7. Virginia (D): See above
8. Nevada (R): Demographics and Obama vs. Romney are keeping Berkley in the race
9. Connecticut (D): McMahon is running perhaps the best challenger race in the country
10. Indiana (R): Will Mourdock have to beg Dick Lugar to do a final TV ad?

*** The rest (in order): Ohio (D), Florida (D), New Mexico (D), Missouri (D), Arizona (R), Hawaii (D), New Jersey (D), Michigan (D), Pennsylvania (D), Texas (R). Note: As of now, we don’t expect these races to flip, but they do suggest where the winning side might not crack 60%.

*** McCaskill hits Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments in new ad: And speaking of that Akin-McCaskill race, we told you McCaskill would begin to hammer Akin in TV ads right after yesterday’s final deadline to withdraw from the race had passed. And here’s her latest TV ad: “On Aug. 19, Todd Akin said only some rapes are legitimate. What will he say next?” It’s an interesting tactic by the McCaskill campaign to NOT use Akin’s voice in its first big hit. Perhaps they don’t want to OVER-play it early (and save that if for some reason they are struggling to put him away in October). We only ask because the first hit, using an announcer to read Akin’s quotes rather than HEARING Akin, struck us as less effective.

*** Good donors, bad donors: Romney yesterday at Education Nation seemed to soften his tone toward teachers’ unions acknowledging they could strike (where it’s allowed). But Romney also said this: “[P]eople are able to give … in case of the Democratic Party, the largest contributors to the Democratic Party are the teachers unions, the federal teachers unions. And so, if they can elect someone, then that person is supposed to be representing the public vis-a-vis the teachers union, but actually most of the money came from the teachers union. It's an extraordinary conflict of interest. That's something I think is a problem and should be addressed.” He added later, “We simply can't have a setting where the teachers' unions are able to contribute tens of millions of dollars to the campaigns of politicians and then those politicians, when elected, stand across from them at the bargaining table.” Some critics of Romney might find it rich with irony that he’s complaining about secret union money since he is getting support from Super PACs that are essentially doing the same thing he’s alleging the teachers are doing.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

*** On the trail: Obama, in Ohio, stumps in Bowling Green at 1:05 pm ET and Kent at 5:30 pm ET… Romney, also in Ohio, campaigns (with Jack Nicklaus) in Westerville at 8:30 am ET, holds a manufacturing town hall in Bedford Heights at 1:05 pm ET, and concludes his bus tour in Toledo at 5:00 pm ET… Paul Ryan hits Colorado… And Marco Rubio and Tagg Romney campaign in North Carolina.

Countdown to 1^st presidential debate: 7 days
Countdown to VP debate: 15 days
Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 20 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 26 days
Countdown to Election Day: 41 days

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*** Wednesday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up: Obama-Biden Deputy Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter… Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND) on Romney-Ryan, the economy, and the battle for the Senate, including the tight race in his own state… NBC’s Mara Schiavocampo with the latest on Ahmadinejad’s annual U.N. moment… Breaking down the new Senate takeover possibilities and Romney’s possible paths to victory with or without Ohio… Latest 2012 news and analysis with USA Today’s Susan Page, Center for American Progress’ Daniella Gibb Leger and former Bush Administration political director Sara Taylor Fagen. 

*** Wednesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, NBC Sports’ Bob Costas on the NFL referee lockout, TheGrio.com’s Joy-Ann Reid, Reason Magazine Editor-in-Chief Matt Welch, Newsweek’s Sir. Harold Evans, Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis and GOP strategist John Brabender.

*** Wednesday's MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts" line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Obama Campaign National Press Secretary Ben LaBolt, MSNBC Contributor Ron Reagan, Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) and MSNBC Host Melissa Harris Perry.  Power Panelists include: Karen Finney, Perry Bacon and John Feehery.

*** Wednesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include the Washington Post’s Melinda Henneberger, New York Magazine’s John Heilemann, New York Times Magazine editor Hugo Lindgren, and author Kurt Andersen.

*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, Romney campaign economic policy adviser Vin Weber, former Ambassador Nicholas Burns, and SparkTruck Founders Jason Chua and Eugene Korsunskiy.

*** Wednesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: Guests include Democratic strategist Keith Boykin, GOP strategist Hogan Gidley, MSNBC contributor Michel Smerconish, Time Magazine’s Jim Frederick, former State Dept. Official Joel Rubin and NBC Sports’ Rob Simmelkjaer.