*** Friday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up: Obama campaign senior advisor David Axelrod… NBC’s David Gregory with a Meet the Press preview and analysis of the Allen-Kaine debate he moderated yesterday… Marist’s Lee Miringoff breaks down the new battleground polls… Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR), deputy NRCC chairman, on how Republicans plan to hold onto the House… Jeff Greenfield on his new e-book “43*”… Latest campaign trail news and analysis with the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin, USA Today’s Jackie Kucinich and Neera Tanden of the Center for American Progress.

*** Friday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews former NH Gov. & Romney Sr. Advisor John H. Sununu, DNC Executive Director Patrick Gaspard, the Rothenberg Reports Stu Rothenberg, Talking Points Memo founder & editor Josh Marshall, the Washington Examiner’s Tim Carney, GOP strategist David Winston, and NBC New Analyst Evan Kohlmann.

*** Friday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), CNBC Chief Washington Correspondent John Harwood, former Biden Economic Adviser Jared Bernstein , and Meghan McCain.  Today’s Power Panel includes: TheGrio.com’s Perry Bacon, Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis, and sepublican Strategist Alice Stewart.

*** Friday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Bloomberg Businessweek’s Josh Green, Politico’s Maggie Haberman, BuzzFeed’s Michael Hastings, Author & Columnist Jay McInerney, and TIME’s Michael Scherer.

*** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews former Ambassador Prudence Bushnell, Obama 2012 Deputy Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter, Vanity Fair’s Todd Purdum, USA Today’s Susan Page, Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD) and Voter Participation President and CEO Page Gardner and NBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin.

*** Friday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Democratic strategist Keith Boykin, Republican strategist Danny Vargas, the Washington Post’s Anne Kornblut, and the Boston Globe’s Noah Bierman

The latest polls:
National:
Reason-Rupe/Princeton Survey: Obama 52-45%
National Journal: Obama 50-43%

State:
IA: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50-42%
CO: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50-45%
WI: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50-45
MI: Detroit News/WDIV/Glengariff: Obama 52-38%
NV: CNN/ORC: Obama 49-46%

“President Obama remains more trusted to address Medicare's challenges, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States shows, even as Mitt Romney challenged him over the issue Thursday in retiree-rich Florida,” USA Today writes. “In the nation's 12 top battlegrounds, including the Sunshine State, voters by 50%-44% say they have more faith in Obama than his Republican challenger on Medicare. They are slightly more likely to say Romney is proposing changes that would weaken the nation's health care system for seniors. There is a wider accord on another question: By 53%-44%, most are pessimistic that Medicare will still be providing all Americans over 65 with adequate health care coverage 20 years from now.”

L.A. Times on a new poll: “White working class: Clinging to guns, religion and Romney.” But Romney’s dominance with the group mostly comes from the South. Obama actually leads with those classified as white, working class in the Midwest, where, of course, the key Rust Belt states are – Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Forecasting an Obama win (but not by much): “What happens when 20 eminent political scientists crunch data to predict the outcome of the 2012 election?” USA Today asks. “Eight of their 13 forecasting models predict President Obama will win the popular vote over Mitt Romney, but the race could be close. After crunching a wide range of data -- from public opinion polls to leading economic indicators to the impact of war -- these forecasts range from predicting a 53.8% popular vote for Obama to a 53.1% vote for Romney. The findings are being published in PS: Political Science and Politics, a scholarly journal for the American Political Science Association that comes out every quarter. Some of the academics will discuss their findings on Oct. 16 at the National Press Club.”

“Obama, who ran for president in 2008 on a pledge to fix Washington’s combative tone, said in an interview that he had come to the conclusion ‘you can’t change Washington from the inside. You can only change it from the outside,’” the AP reports, but adds that Obama said “he wanted people to speak out on issues, he went on to say: ‘So something that I'd really like to concentrate on in my second term is being in a much more constant conversation with the American people so that they can put pressure on Congress to help move some of these issues forward.’”

David Axelrod on TODAY: “He said in order to move Washington and to move the Congress, you have to enlist the American people. That was the lesson he learned from the standoff on the debt ceiling last summer, and he’s been making that point consistently. The fact that Gov. Romney picked up on it and attacked him on it is just one more example of how he’s just cascading from one gratuitous attack to another, instead of talking about solutions to the problems we face.”

“Forget Bill Clinton and Clint Eastwood: The biggest draw at the political conventions turned out to be Vice President Biden,” USA Today writes. “Nearly 15% of all TV viewers tuned in to Biden's speech at the Democratic convention in Charlotte, more than those who watched President Obama and Mitt Romney, according to a new analysis by Nielsen, the ratings company. Biden got a boost from people over 55 years old, with slightly more than 27% of this group watching his speech on Sept. 6 accepting the VP nomination.”

The Obama campaign goes up with a web video taking Romney out of context – on purpose.

“Medicare beneficiaries have saved a total of about $4.5 billion on prescription medications because of the 2010 health care law since January 2011, the Department of Health and Human Services plans to announce today,” USA Today writes.

Priorities USA pulled in $10 million, its best month.

The DCCC outraised its counterpart, the NRCC, by about $5 million. The NRCC still has more cash on hand.

Matt Viser: “The secretly-taped fundraising video – which emerged in full on Tuesday – has caused the Republican presidential candidate all types of problems for the comments he made that evening in May. But overlooked in the storm of controversy is that the fundraising video provides a rare peek into the types of events that Romney has been holding almost non-stop since April – a schedule that has him interacting with high-dollar donors far more than he does with average voters. And while it’s been a common criticism that Romney isn’t talking specifics or in-depth policy, the video demonstrates that he actually is – on what he thinks about Middle East peace, and what he makes of income inequality – but it’s just not often in public forums. One Romney donor, asked about the uproar over the video, shrugged. These are things he’d heard many times, he said, at many Romney fundraisers.”

The AP: “Now it’s Mitt Romney who wants to be the candidate of change. Romney seized on President Barack Obama’s comment that ‘you can’t change Washington from the inside.’ Grasping for a way to right his campaign and appeal to independents, the Republican nominee said he has what it takes to end the nasty partisanship in the nation’s capital. Romney was expected to press the issue again Friday during a campaign rally in Nevada, a state hard hit by the nation’s housing and unemployment woes. Obama, traveling Friday to Virginia and addressing an AARP convention by satellite, planned to keep hammering Romney for comments he made in a private fundraiser about 47 percent of the country believing they are victims and entitled to a government handouts.”

Ann Romney to conservative critics, per Radio Iowa (via NBC’s Alex Moe): "Stop it. This is hard. You want to try it? Get in the ring. This is hard and, you know, it's an important thing that we're doing right now and it's an important election and it is time for all Americans to realize how significant this election is and how lucky we are to have someone with Mitt's qualifications and experience and know-how to be able to have the opportunity to run this country."

With his Super PAC Ending Spending, “Joe Ricketts, the founder of what became online brokerage TD Ameritrade Inc., plans to spend $10 million airing ads supporting GOP nominee Mitt Romney and another $2 million to help Republicans running for Congress. The ads will begin airing this week,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Another outside group, Secure America Now, has an ad featuring Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The New York Times: The group that produced the ad, Secure America Now, is run by two longtime Republican strategists, Nelson Warfield and John McLaughlin, and Pat Caddell, a former aide to Jimmy Carter who is now a Fox News contributor. They have reserved $500,000 of airtime in Fort Myers, West Palm Beach and Miami. A senior Israeli official said the government was not consulted on the ad and did not approve it.”

NBC/SMG Delta has not yet confirmed the ad buys.

“After dominating the fundraising race for much of the summer, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney started the fall campaign sprint with a little more than $50 million available to spend and a large loan to repay, campaign-finance reports filed Thursday show,” USA Today writes. “Romney raised nearly $67 million in August and spent nearly as much, according to his filings with the Federal Election commission.”

Not so Goode: Former Virginia representative Virgil Goode receives several calls a week from worried Republicans asking him to drop his presidential bid,” USA Today writes about the third-party candidate who’s on the ballot in Virginia. “‘They have just said, ‘We hope you don't run in the race; we think you are going to take votes from Romney,' Goode said in a recent interview. The callers never said they were prodded by Romney's campaign, he said, but he suspected it might have prompted the calls. A recent Washington Post poll shows Goode, who is running as the Constitution Party's candidate, getting 2% of the vote, a percentage that looked like a major problem for Romney earlier this month when polls showed Romney and President Obama neck in neck in the state. … Goode contended that most people who would vote for him probably wouldn't have voted at all, so it was unlikely he would cut into whatever narrow margin exists on Nov. 6.

MASSACHUSETTS: “Republican US Senator Scott Brown questioned Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren’s claim of Native American heritage in the opening moments of a lively high-stakes television debate tonight,” the Boston Globe writes. “When moderator Jon Keller asked if character was an issue in the race, Brown answered, ‘I think character is important. ... Professor Warren claimed she was a Native American, a person of color. And as you can see, she’s not.’”

VIRGINIA: “Virginia Republican George Allen became the latest Senate candidate to distance himself from Mitt Romney's claim that the 47% of Americans who don't pay federal income taxes think of themselves as victims dependent on the government,” the L.A. Times writes. "‘I have my own point of view, and my point of view is people of America still believe in the American dream.’”

WISCONSIN: Tommy Thompson (R) pinned some of the blame for him falling behind in some polls on Mitt Romney. “Thompson told a Madison TV station, ‘Whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, if you’re a standard-bearer for the presidency is not doing well, it’s going to reflect on the downballot.’ Top Romney surrogate and former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu struck back at Thompson, who has created friction between himself and the presidential campaign, by telling CNN tonight that Thompson ‘sounds like Barack Obama trying to blame it on somebody else.’”

The L.A. Times reports: “The House Ethics Committee is considering dropping the case against Rep. Maxine Waters, a move that would clear the way for the veteran Los Angeles lawmaker to become the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. The secretive panel on Thursday signaled that the long-running case may be nearing an end by calling an unusual public Friday session to take up the matter.”

Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

President Barack Obama shakes hands after holding a round table discussion with first time voters at OMG Burger in Miami on Sept. 20, 2012.

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin, reaching the key 50 percent support threshold in all three battlegrounds, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of these states.

In both Colorado and Wisconsin, Obama is ahead by 5 points among likely voters (including those leaning toward a candidate), 50 percent to 45 percent.

And in Iowa, the president’s edge over Romney is 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Read the Colorado poll results here (.pdf)

Among a wider sample of registered voters, Obama’s lead is even larger – 6 points in Colorado, 8 in Wisconsin and 11 in Iowa.

While Obama still hasn't closed the deal, says Marist College pollster Lee Miringoff, “The advantage is his in all three states.”

He adds, “It is very important in an election when you start closing in on 50 [percent]. In politics that is a big number.”

The results from these new polls are similar to the NBC/WSJ/Marist surveys of Florida, Ohio and Virginia that were released last week. Those showed Obama ahead in all three battlegrounds. And they’re consistent with this week’s national NBC/WSJ poll (conducted by different pollsters) that found Obama up by 5 points among likely voters, 50 percent to 45 percent.

Romney’s favorability vs. Obama’s
These new surveys – conducted after the political firestorm over last week’s attacks on U.S. embassies in Libya and Egypt, and during the melee over a leaked video of Romney talking about the “47 percent” of Americans who are dependent on government and believe they are victims – also show the Republican’s favorability rating in an unenviable place.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

A plurality of likely voters view Romney in a negative light in all three states. In Colorado, it’s 43 percent favorable to 50 percent unfavorable; in Iowa, it’s 42 percent to 50 percent; and in Wisconsin, it’s 43 percent to 46 percent.

By contrast, out of last week’s polls in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, just one of them – Ohio – found Romney’s favorable/unfavorable rating under water.

Read the Wisconsin poll results here (.pdf)

Meanwhile, Obama’s favorable/unfavorable scores in Colorado (51 percent to 45 percent), Iowa (53 percent to 42 percent), and Wisconsin (51 percent to 44 percent) are all above water.

Romney casts himself as 'change' candidate in seizing on Obama comment

Yet the president’s job approval rating in these states is a bit lower – 47 percent in Colorado, 48 percent in Wisconsin, and 49 percent in Iowa.

Tied on the economy
According to these polls, Obama and Romney are essentially battling to a tie on the question of which candidate would do a better job in handling the economy. In Wisconsin, 46 percent of likely voters pick Romney, while 45 percent select Obama.

But in Colorado, the president gets 48 percent, and the GOP nominee gets 46 percent. And in Iowa, Obama is up by four points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

Read the Iowa poll results here (.pdf)

Yet when it comes to which candidate would do a better job on foreign policy, the president enjoys a double-digit advantage in all three states.

Other notable numbers

• In Republican running mate Paul Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin, his favorable/unfavorable score among likely voters is 49 percent to 40 percent (versus 51 percent to 44 percent for Obama, 43 percent to 46 percent for Romney, and 42 percent to 45 percent for Vice President Joe Biden).
• In Wisconsin’s competitive Senate contest, Democrat Tammy Baldwin gets support from 48 percent of likely voters, and Republican Tommy Thompson gets 46 percent.
• Obama is ahead among independents in all three states – by 1 point in Wisconsin, 10 points in Iowa and 11 points in Colorado.
• And there’s a significant gender gap in these three states, with the president up by double digits among women and with Romney slightly ahead among men.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Sept. 16-18 of 971 likely voters in Colorado (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points), 898 likely voters in Iowa (plus-minus 3.3 percentage points) and 968 likely voters in Wisconsin (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points).

About a quarter of all likely voters in these three states were interviewed by cell phone.

NBC’s Natalie Cucchiara contributed to this report.

In just the three days since First Read reported that ad spending had reached $605.7 million this presidential campaign, another $25 million has been booked.

And notably, there’s a new major player on the scene – Americans for Job Security, a shadowy group with no requirement to disclose its donors. It booked $8.7 million – in its first buy this presidential cycle – in six battleground states: FL, OH, VA, IA, CO, and NC.

Its dark-and-gloomy ad (from its website) depicts a baby in a crib looking up at a cracked ceiling as an announcer asks: “What are his hopes, his future? Under the path we were on, it’s darker, weaker, less secure. All because our president has no plan to balance the budget ever. Obama wants to raise the debt ceiling by trillions, so he can pay for his reckless spending. Sign the petition, saying no to a debt-ceiling increase, because at some point, the ceiling will break.”

Americans for Job Security is classified as a 501(c)(6) “business league,” according to its website. “Under the law, this type of organization is designed to promote the ‘common business interests’ of its members,” it says.

The Alexandria, Va.-based group purports to be an “independent, bi-partisan, pro-business issue advocacy organization,” but it’s run by the former head of the New Hampshire Republican Party, and it ran ads supporting Scott Brown (R-MA) and against Bill Halter (D) in Arkansas in 2010. It has also played in GOP Senate primaries, running ads against Pete Hoekstra (R) in the Michigan governor’s race, against Jane Norton (R) for Colorado Senate, and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in the South Carolina governor’s race.

FactCheck.org points out that it “does not disclose its donors. It says only that its members are ‘businesses, business leaders and entrepreneurs.’”

It also notes the group's run-in with the Federal Election Commission in 2008:

“In 2008, staff lawyers for the Federal Election Commission saw ‘reason to believe’ that AJS had violated federal election law by, among other things, failing to register as a political committee and failing to disclose its donors. But in 2009 the three Republican commissioners on the FEC blocked any action, voting to dismiss the case while the three Democratic commissioners voted to pursue it. Since a majority is required for the FEC to act, the partisan 3-3 deadlock killed any enforcement action against AJS. When the Supreme Court later struck down longstanding federal laws against campaign spending by corporations and labor unions, AJS President DeMaura told the Wall Street Journal the decision was an ‘unequivocal victory’ for those ‘who believe in free speech and the rights of organizations such as ours to promote our point of view.’

“Since its inception AJS says it has raised nearly $60 million and run more than 90 different TV spots in 46 states and the District of Columbia. [Stephen] DeMaura [its president] told FactCheck.org that as of mid-August [2010], the group had spent $6.3 million in the 2010 election cycle, but he would not say what the group expected to spend during the remainder of the election campaign.”

In all this election, more than $630 million has been spent on TV and radio ads by the presidential campaigns and outside groups. 

Team Romney (groups supporting Republican Mitt Romney, including Super PACs, the campaigns and other groups) has outspent Team Obama $338 million to $292 million.

SARASOTA, FL—Mitt Romney seized on remarks delivered by President Obama today, attempting to seize the role of “change” candidate after the president seemed to suggest in a televised forum that he could not change Washington from the inside.

"We face a Washington that’s broken, that can’t get the job done. The president today threw in the white flag of surrender again. He said he can’t change Washington from inside. He can only change it from outside,” Romney said. “Well, we’re going to give him that chance in November. He’s going outside!”

Romney was referring to an answer President Barack Obama gave to Spanish-language broadcaster Univision at a forum in Miami just a few hours before Romney took the stage. At the forum, which Romney attended last night, the president was asked to name his biggest failure.

The president told the forum’s moderator that he felt his biggest failure was in not passing comprehensive immigration reform, then pivoted to lessons-learned.

“The most important lesson I've learned is that you can't change Washington from the inside. You can only change it from the outside,” bama said. “That's how I got elected, and that's how the big accomplishments, like health care, got done, was because we mobilized the American people to speak out.”

Romney campaign aides, on the defensive for much of the last week over Romney’s surreptitiously-recorded comments in a May fundraiser, began blasting out the comments on social media, while other aides brought them to Romney’s attention on the nine-minute drive from his lunchtime fundraiser to the afternoon rally.

Taking the podium under sweltering conditions, Romney attacked.

“This is time for a new president. He went from the president of change to the president who can’t get change,” Romney said. “I heard it from the reports that came out and they said the president of the United States says he can’t change Washington from the inside. Isn’t that amazing?”

“No wonder he’s had such a hard time over the last four years his first two years he had a Democratic house, Democratic senate, he got to do whatever the heck he wanted to but he says he can’t change it from the inside,” Romney continued. “Well I will. I’ll get the job done, we’ll change Washington we’ll restore the economic strength."

Republicans quickly flagged Obama's line as indicative of Obama's failure to deliver on high expectations he created as a candidate in 2008. The GOP argued that Obama's comment amounted to a concession that business persists as usual in Washington.

Noting that Obama regularly refers to change in Washington as slow-moving and a goal that must be sought for from outside the capital. "Change is hard" has become a refrain for Obama in his campaign stops, his plea to supporters from 2008 whose enthusiasm has waned.

The Obama campaign quickly labeled Romney’s comments as “wildly out of context,” and called the attack built on them an act of desperation.

Nevertheless, the Romney campaign, sensing an opening, made the concept of Romney-as-change-candidate the centerpiece of today’s rally here in a county John McCain won by only a few hundred votes four years ago, but where Republicans see an opportunity to run up large margins this November.

“Now I know that the people of America have a choice. They can choose thecurrent incumbent. He represents the status quo. If we reelect Barack Obama you know exactly what we're going to see,” Romney said, adding that a vote for the GOP ticket this fall would be a vote for “real change.”

In First Read this morning and also on Twitter, your authors noted that Mother Jones' original clip of Romney talking about the Middle East in that secretly recorded video had omitted a portion of Romney's comments.

We wrote in First Thoughts:

Meanwhile, Republicans yesterday jumped all over a Politico piece, noting that a portion of Romney's comments in that Mother Jones video on Middle East peace (where Romney acknowledges that there could eventually be peace) had been omitted. First Read reached out to Mother Jones' David Corn, who argued that the portion wasn't included in its initial video because Romney had said it before. (Mother Jones later posted the entire video, as has NBC News.) Both of these new video revelations don’t necessarily negate what Romney also said about the Middle East (that Palestinians don’t have an interest in peace and that a two-state solution isn’t feasible), and they don’t negate that Obama talked about redistribution. But they also don’t tell the whole story.

Mother Jones' David Corn writes this response:

In the clip Mother Jones originally posted, Romney was asked by one of the guests at the May 17 private fundraiser what he would do about the "Palestinian problem." In his long and detailed answer, he made these points:

■ Peace in the Mideast is "almost unthinkable."
■ The two-state solution—which he publicly has said he supports and which has been official US policy since the Clinton years—cannot work.
■ The Palestinians—whom he lumps together into a single mindset—do not want peace at all and are bent only on the destruction of Israel.
■ When a former secretary of state told Romney that peace was possible in the Mideast, Romney dismissed this notion.
■ He would not actively pursue the peace process, as it is currently envisioned, and merely aim to "kick the ball down the field."

Those statements were all news. Romney has not said this in public, and these remarks contradict his official position (and that of GOP platform). Add that all up and it is clear Romney does not believe the peace process in the Mideast can produce a positive outcome.

After showing Romney explaining all of this in great detail, we ended the clip when Romney started saying that the United States should not lean on Israel. That was merely a reiteration of what he has said many times in public. It was not notable.

For Corn's full piece, click here.

President Barack Obama said his inability to achieve comprehensive immigration reform during his first term was a disappointment for which he was ultimately responsible, but cautioned Latino voters that Mitt Romney would no better meet their political demands.

At a forum Thursday hosted by the Spanish-language broadcaster Univision, Obama said that more pressing issues -- like the perilous state of the economy in early 2009 -- and Republican intransigence were to blame for his inability to accomplish comprehensive immigration reform. Obama had vowed to pursue immigration reform in his first year; the president's failure to do so has to an extent endangered his support from within the Latino community.

"There's the thinking that the president is somebody who is all-powerful and can get everything done. In our system of government, I am the head of the executive branch. I'm not the head of the legislature. I'm not the head of the judiciary," Obama said. "We have to have cooperation from all these sources in order to get something done. And so I am happy to take responsibility for the fact that we didn't get it done, but I did not make a promise that I would get everything done 100 percent when I was elected as president."

The Obama administration did in June authorize administrative action that opted against pursuing the deportment of people who were illegally brought to the U.S. as children. The rule accomplishes much of the same outcomes as the DREAM Act, which Obama had supported and Congress failed to pass over conservative objections.

Obama sought to dispel the idea that his June action was meant to excite Latino voters.

"I think if you take a look at the polls, I was winning the Latino vote before we took that action, partly because the other side had completely abandoned their commitment to things like comprehensive immigration reform," the president said.

In reflecting on the difficulty he had in pursuing immigration reform, Obama also commented that he learned "that you can't change Washington from the inside -- you can only change it from the outside."

That comment quickly was made into fodder by Republicans, and Romney, stumping shortly after Obama's event this afternoon in Sarasota, pounced on that admission.

Moderator Jorge Ramos bluntly told the president that failing to pass immigration reform was a broken promise. Republican presidential nominee has seized upon this to make inroads with Latinos, among whom he badly trails versus Obama.

Like Obama in 2008, candidate Romney has promised to pass comprehensive immigration reform in his first year if elected. But while Obama had specified his reforms -- Obama had expressed support for the DREAM Act and a broader immigration bill that have immigrants in the U.S. illegally a pathway to citizenship -- Romney has not said what form his "comprehensive" effort would take, beyond stressing it would supersede the president's own action on immigration.

For both candidates, electoral considerations are firmly in mind in their politicking. Romney could fare more poorly with Latinos than any other Republican presidential candidate in recent memory. Obama led Romney 63 to 28 percent in the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll of registered Hispanic voters. That's a level of support well below his campaign's stated goal of 38 percent of the vote.

Obama, however, can't easily rest on that advantage. Enthusiasm in voting among Latinos is well below its 2008 levels, meaning the president still faces major work in motivating this crucial bloc to go to the polls. In states like Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and beyond, the Latino vote could prove pivotal.

Virginia Senate candidate Tim Kaine (D) suggested Thursday that he would be open to considering a minimum tax on Americans.

Kaine, the former governor of Virginia and former Democratic National Committee chairman, said during a debate versus Republican opponent George Allen that he would be open to a minimum tax proposal.

Evan Vucci / AP

Republican candidate George Allen, right, speaks as Democratic candidate Tim Kaine looks on during a Senatorial debate for the Virginia U.S. Senate seat on Thursday, Sept. 20, 2012 in McLean, Va.

"I would be open to a proposal that would have some minimum tax level for everyone," Kaine said when pressed by debate moderator David Gregory on whether Americans should face a minimum federal income tax. "But I do insist, many of the 47 percent that Gov. Romney was going after pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes than he does."

Kaine's remark came during a broader exchange about Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's comments that he couldn't count on about 47 percent of Americans to vote for him because they pay no income taxes and are "dependent" on government. Romney made those comments in May, which were surreptitiously recorded at the time and publicized this week.

Romney's controversial suggestion has become an issue in several competitive Senate races, such as Connecticut and Massachusetts, where Republicans Linda McMahon and Sen. Scott Brown have (respectively) distanced themselves from Romney.

Allen, the former Republican senator who lost his re-election bid in 2006, didn't as sharply distance himself from Romney. "I have my own view," he said about Romney's comments before pivoting to speak about jobs.

The Kaine-Allen race is one of the most competitive in the nation this year; its outcome could foretell control of the Senate in the next Congress. Republicans need to achieve a net gain of four seats to win back the majority in the Senate.

Last week's NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll of Virginia voters found the Senate race tied, at 46 percent apiece for Kaine and Allen.

Whether Kaine's comments today have any lasting effect will play out in the next days and weeks, though Republican observers of today's debate -- which was organized by NBC-Washington affiliate WRC -- immediately took note of the minimum tax comments.

House Speaker John Boehner avoided directly answering questions about Mitt Romney’s recent comments in a leaked video suggesting that 47 percent of Americans won't vote for him because of their "dependence" on government.

"This election is about jobs, we've said it for 20 months and it hasn't changed," the nation's top elected Republican said about the surreptitiously-recorded comments made by Romney at a closed-door fundraiser in May.

Boehner himself rose from humble beginnings to become speaker, though that background -- of which he was reminded by NBC News -- didn't seem to co0lor the Ohio Republican's perception of Romney.

"Listen, the election is about jobs, it's not about anything else.  I've had family members who've lost their jobs in this downturn, two of my brothers, two of my brother-in-laws.  I know what is happening out there and I know how difficult this economy is," he said at his weekly press conference.

He continued: “You're going to have both campaigns on both sides say things that get off the message.  The message is let's stay focused on jobs because that's what the American people want us to stay focused on.”

Romney's recently-revealed comments have added to the challenges facing his campaign, inviting criticism from both Democrats and Republicans alike. But Boehner dismissed the reaction as "political hand-wringing by these Washington insiders trying to make this race look like it's over for the president."

Boehner added of Romney: "He’s going to win, well, Gallup is obviously the largest polling firm out there…they got this as a one-point race.”

Boehner also referenced the Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004 as to why he has confidence in Romney winning the presidency.

"In 2000 and 2004, the Bush ground game that got him elected was -- surpassed anything that we had ever done. The Romney ground game today has already exceeded the number of voter contacts that were made in all of 2004.”

GOP aides tell NBC News that Boehner will be hitting the campaign trail aggressively once Congress recesses until after the election on Friday. As speaker, Boehner is one of the party’s most prolific fundraisers and best-known advocates and will play an important role in trying to secure Ohio for the Romney campaign.

A more moderate Mitt returns?…. How will conservatives react?... Questions about Romney’s “redistribution” counterattack… When leaving out part of the tape… New information contradicts White House line that attack on U.S. embassy wasn’t premeditated… Romney’s money problem… And NBC/WSJ/Marist to unveil new polls of CO, IA, and WI.

*** A more moderate Mitt returns? After originally standing by his comments at that May fundraiser in Florida, where he was surreptitiously recorded saying that he can’t win the “47%” of Americans who are dependent on the government, Romney backed down last night. “This is a campaign about the 100%,” he said at a forum in Miami sponsored by Univision, per NBC’s Garrett Haake. But Romney did more than back down from those 47% remarks; he also softened his tone on health care, immigration, and gay rights. "Now and then the president says I’m the grandfather of Obamacare. I don’t think he meant that as a compliment, but I’ll take it,” he said, going on to praise the Massachusetts law. He also clarified his earlier remarks on self-deportation. "I said I'm not in favor of a deportation, a mass deportation effort rounding up 12 million people and kicking them out of the country," he said. "I believe people make their own choices as to whether they want to go home, and that's what I mean by self-deportation. And he added this about gay marriage: “I would like to have the term marriage continue to be associated with a relationship between one man and one woman, and that certainly doesn’t prevent two people of the same gender living in a loving relationship together having gay domestic partnership, if you will.”

*** How will conservatives react? Last night was the candidate many of us expected to start seeing in June or July, not in September -- it was the Romney of 2004. And on health care, we have seen Romney make moderate-sounding remarks on the subject, but then he’s had to walk them back after receiving criticism from conservatives. That’s the thing to watch today: Will we see any conservative blowback about Romney’s comments last night? Or will conservatives cut him slack for the first time this campaign because he’s on the ropes? We know the campaign is exhausted from litigating every little thing with their conservative critics, especially since it believes it’s running a more ideologically conservative campaign than any Republican in a generation.

Jim Young / Reuters

Republican presidential nominee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney arrives at Univision and Facebook's "Meet the Candidates" Forum moderated by Maria Elena Salinas and Jorge Ramos in Miami, Florida, September 19, 2012.

*** Questions about Romney’s “redistribution” counterattack: Before Romney backed down from his “47%” remarks, the campaign tried to change the subject, seizing on a 14-year-old remarks of Obama talking about “redistribution.” We have more on those 1998 comments below, but here’s a question we have: Who is that counterattack playing to outside of the conservative base? After all, Obama hasn’t exactly hid his intention to raise taxes on the wealthy to help pay down the deficit. “Now, I’ve cut taxes for those who need it -- middle-class families, small businesses,” Obama said in his convention speech earlier this month. “But I don’t believe that another round of tax breaks for millionaires will bring good jobs to our shores or pay down our deficit.” And here’s a second question: What happened to Romney’s message of jobs, jobs, jobs? The “redistribution” push smacks of a campaign trying to win a news cycle but stumbling in its attempt to have a core message.

*** When leaving out part of the tape… : But here’s something else about those 1998 remarks from Obama -- they’re not the whole story. As NBC’s Mike O’Brien reported last night, the actual video of the 1998 “redistribution” comment by Obama shows the then-state senator speaking about “competition” and “the marketplace” in his VERY NEXT sentence. In the whole clip, Obama says: “I think the trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution because I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make sure that everybody's got a shot.” Then he adds,” How do we pool resources at the same time as we decentralize delivery systems in ways that both foster competition, can work in the marketplace, and can foster innovation at the local level and can be tailored to particular communities.” The second sentence could have been uttered by Bill Clinton or another former member of the DLC.

*** Speaking of context: Meanwhile, Republicans yesterday jumped all over a Politico piece, noting that a portion of Romney's comments in that Mother Jones video on Middle East peace (where Romney acknowledges that there could eventually be peace) had been omitted. First Read reached out to Mother Jones' David Corn, who argued that the portion wasn't included in its initial video because Romney had said it before. (Mother Jones later posted the entire video, as has NBC News.) Both of these new video revelations don’t necessarily negate what Romney also said about the Middle East (that Palestinians don’t have an interest in peace and that a two-state solution isn’t feasible), and they don’t negate that Obama talked about redistribution. But they also don’t tell the whole story.

*** Contradicting the White House’s official line: And speaking of maybe not telling the whole story, the White House maintains that the attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya, which killed four Americans, wasn’t a coordinated terrorist attack. “Based on the information that we had at the time and have to this day, we do not have evidence that it was premeditated,” White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said yesterday. But every piece of new information suggests that al Qaeda may have had a role in that attack. Here's the Wall Street Journal: “U.S. intelligence officials are investigating indications that al Qaeda's North African affiliate is connected with militants involved in the attack on a U.S. consulate in Libya, the top U.S. counterterrorism official said, providing the first public acknowledgment of the extremist movement's possible involvement in the deadly assault.” So if U.S. intelligence officials are hinting that al Qaeda’s North African affiliate is connected to the attack, then how can the White House stick by this not “premeditated” line? The introduction of al Qaeda into the story indicates some form of pre-meditation unless were parsing “aspirational” and “opportunistic” from full-fledged pre-meditation. Given the proximity of Election Day, it’s not hard to figure out the story the White House fears on this: There was a pre-planned terrorist attack on an American ambassador on the anniversary of 9/11 of all days.

*** Romney’s money problem: As your First Read authors have been pointing out for a while now, Mitt Romney’s fundraising is not as impressive as it looks in those initial press releases. Why? Not ALL of the money the being raised by Team Romney is available for the Romney campaign to use in TV ads. The New York Times: “Despite what appears to be a plump bank account and an in-house production studio that cranks out multiple commercials a day, Mr. Romney’s campaign has been tightfisted with its advertising budget, leaving him at a disadvantage in several crucial states as President Obama blankets them with ads. One major reason appears to be that Mr. Romney’s campaign finances have been significantly less robust than recent headlines would suggest. Much of the more than $300 million the campaign reported raising this summer is earmarked for the Republican National Committee, state Republican organizations and Congressional races, limiting the money Mr. Romney’s own campaign has to spend.” The bottom line: Romney has a small donor problem; if he didn’t, he would not have had to borrow money in August against his general election funds and he wouldn’t be so reliant on these high-dollar events he’s regularly planning rallies around.

*** More polls! Looking to pore over more Obama-vs.-Romney horserace polls? Well, we’re releasing three new NBC/WSJ/Marist state surveys tonight at 6:30 pm ET -- of Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

*** On the trail: Both Obama and Romney are in Florida today: Obama, at 2:10 pm ET, attends in the Univision forum in Miami that Romney hit yesterday… Romney holds a rally in Sarasota at 3:55 pm ET… And Ann Romney campaigns in Wisconsin and Iowa… Also worth noting: NBC’s David Gregory moderates a noon ET debate between Virginia Senate candidates Tim Kaine and George Allen, and Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown square off in a debate at 7:00 pm ET.

Countdown to 1^st presidential debate: 13 days
Countdown to VP debate: 21 days
Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 26 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day: 47 days

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*** Thursday's "Jansing & Co." line-up: MSNBC's Chris Jansing interviews Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Rep Patrick Meehan (R-PA), USA Today’s Susan Page, the Washington Post’s Dana Milbank, GOP strategist Tony Fratto, and Dem strategist Tad Devine.

*** Thursday's “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Obama Campaign 2012 Co-Chair Eva Longoria, MSNBC Host Melissa Harris Perry, MSNBC Contributor Ron Reagan, and Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD). Today’s Power Panelists include:  Meghan Mccain, MSNBC Political Analyst Karen Finney and USA Today’s Jackie Kucinich

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: Chris Cillizza, filling in for Andrea Mitchell, interviews NBC’s Peter Alexander, Ron Mott and Pete Williams, Time’s Jim Frederick, The Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus and Jonathan Capehart and National Journal’s Reid Wilson.

*** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Chip Saltsman, Ed Rendell, and the Boston Globe’s Noah Bierman

There were a slew of new polls out yesterday. Here’s a wrap of the swing-state polls: Nearly mirroring the NBC/WSJ/Marist polls, FOX polls in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio all show President Obama with a lead – Florida: Obama 49-44%, Virginia: Obama 50-43%, Ohio: Obama 49-42%.

In Michigan, CNN has Obama up 8, 52-44%; In Wisconsin, Marquette Law School has Obama up 14, 54-40%.

“The secretly recorded video of Mitt Romney dissecting the American electorate at a high-priced fundraiser bolsters him among Republicans but makes almost a third of independents less likely to vote for him, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds,” USA Today writes. “The survey, taken Tuesday, finds just over half of independents say the video won't make a difference in their vote. Those who say it will have an effect by 2-1, 29%-15%, say it makes them less likely rather than more likely to support the GOP presidential nominee.” (Of course, be wary of one-day polls. Most people don’t follow the news that closely and it usually takes a few days or a week before information sets in.)

“President Obama and Mitt Romney will spend at least half of their first debate talking about the economy, based on the list of topics released today by moderator Jim Lehrer of PBS,” USA Today notes. “The first debate is Oct. 3 at the University of Denver.”

“President Obama and Mitt Romney will get the 60 Minutes treatment this Sunday in separate interviews with different correspondents,” USA Today writes.

Despite the amplifiers: “For all the efforts by the Romney campaign to court voters like Finkel, Obama's campaign is expressing growing confidence that they have been able to keep Jewish voters,” USA Today writes. “According to the Gallup daily tracking poll between July 1 and Sept. 10, 70% of registered Jewish voters plan to vote for Obama vs. 25% for Romney. In the spring, polls showed Obama up 64%-25% against a generic GOP candidate.”

Romney spoke the most extensively so far last night at a Univision forum about his 47% comments and instead said his campaign was about 100%, NBC’s Garrett Haake reports: "First of all, this is a campaign about the 100 percent. And over the last several years, you’ve seen greater and greater divisiveness in this country. We had hoped to come back together but instead you've seen us pulled apart. I am concerned about the fact that over the past four years, life has become harder for Americans."

He also laughed at his joke that he’d have an easier time winning if he were actually Latino: "I think for political purposes that might have helped me here at the University of Miami today.”

He also tried to explain his “self-deportation” comments from a GOP primary debate: "I said I'm not in favor of a deportation, a mass deportation effort rounding up 12 million people and kicking them out of the country. I believe people make their own choices as to whether they want to go home and that's what I mean by self-deportation. People decide if they want to go back to the country of their origin and get in line legally to be able to come to this country."

And he softened his tone and support for the controversial Arizona immigration law: "One aspect of the Arizona law which I think is worthwhile to consider and be part of a federal solution is this idea of an employment verification system. The reason there is an Arizona law is because the federal government and specifically President Obama didn't solve the immigration problem when he came into office.”

But during a Republican primary debate, Romney said he would push to drop lawsuits against Arizona’s law: “[T]he right course for America is to drop these lawsuits against Arizona and other states that are trying to do the job Barack Obama isn't doing. And I will drop those lawsuits on day one.”

(By the way, as Politifact pointed out, Romney didn’t called SB 1070 a “model” for the nation, but an earlier 2007 E-Verify law. But he did refer to both in the same paragraph.)

The Wall Street Journal: “Romney Softens Tone at Univision Forum.”

After Romney’s 47% “victims” comments, the Boston Globe points out that Romney’s father received public assistance: “Mitt Romney had harsh words for welfare recipients in a hidden-camera videotape from a May fundraiser that was leaked this week. But his own father was once among public aid recipients. As the Globe has previously reported, George Romney’s family fled from Mexico in 1912 to escape a revolution there, and benefited from a $100,000 fund established by Congress to help refugees who had lost their homes and most of their belongings. That fund may have been what Lenore Romney, George Romney’s wife and Mitt Romney’s mother, was referring to in a video that was posted online earlier this month but has received renewed attention in the wake of Mitt Romney’s comments.”

Romney has a new ad featuring Marco Rubio talking about Medicare.

The New York Times fact checks Romney’s “Dear Daughter” ad: “It is true, as the ad points out, that the poverty level among women, at 16.3 percent, is the highest in 17 years, according to the Census Bureau. But the unemployment rate for men is 8.3 percent; for women it is 7.8 percent. The ad also notes that more than 5.5 million women are unemployed, about a half-million more than when Mr. Obama took office. But the ad does not say that the number of unemployed women started to rise sharply in 2008, before he took office, and has come down from a peak of 6.4 million in 2010.”

The Romney campaign announced a three-day Ohio bus tour beginning Monday.

The Romney campaign is once again trying to reframe the presidential race. Now, it’s “opportunity society” vs. government dependency.

After all that…  “A Georgia-based restaurant chain that drew national attention when its owner reaffirmed his opposition to same-sex marriage says it's leaving the debate to politicians in the future,” AP writes. “Chick-fil-A issued a statement to that effect Wednesday when asked to comment on a claim earlier in the day that the company had stopped funding organizations that oppose same-sex marriage.”

NBC has obtained the entirety of the relevant remarks in the “redistribution” video the RNC has circulated. In the rest of the clip, Obama talks about the “marketplace,” decentralization and fostering “competition,” NBCNews.com’s Michael O’Brien reports.

He campaigns in Florida today and does the same Univision forum that Romney did yesterday.

Revisionist history? Did Obama really immediately regret his “bitter” comments in 2008? Not exactly. Here’s what he said in the immediate aftermath, as conservatives point out: "Now I didn't say it as well as I should have, because the truth is that these traditions that are passed on from generation to generation, those are important. That's what sustains us. … What is absolutely true is that people don't feel like they're being listened to. And so they pray and they count on each other and they count on their families. You know this in your own lives," Obama said. "What we need is a government that is actually paying attention, a government that is actually fighting for working people day in and day out, making sure that we are trying to allow them to live out the American dream. And that's what this campaign is about."

A conservative writer for the New York Daily News picks up on Obama saying this on Letterman about the $16 trillion in national debt (via Real Clear Politics): “We don't have to worry about it short term.” Obama did add, “But we do have to worry about it long term.” The president also said, “I don’t remember the number precisely.”

Updated 11:29 p.m. — Mitt Romney's campaign this week has pounced on a 14-year-old clip of Obama speaking about "redistribution" in October 1998 at a conference in Chicago, in which the future president seems to extol the virtues of redistributing wealth.

Yet NBC News has obtained the entirety of the relevant remarks, which includes additional comments by Obama that weren't included in the video circulated by Republicans. That omission features additional words of praise for "competition" and the "marketplace" by the then-state senator. 

In the whole clip, Obama says:

I think the trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution because I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make sure that everybody's got a shot.  How do we pool resources at the same time as we decentralize delivery systems in ways that both foster competition, can work in the marketplace, and can foster innovation at the local level and can be tailored to particular communities.

Obama continues in a few words after that to describe the use of tax credits in setting public housing development policy in Chicago as an example before concluding.

The video circulated by Republicans, which has used as fodder for an attack on Obama, includes a longer reflection by Obama about talking about how government action can be effective. But the clip has been cut short after the word "shot;" Obama's words about competition, the marketplace and innovation are omitted from the clip. 

Romney has nonetheless seized upon this clip as his campaign looks to regain its footing after the release of a surreptitiously-recorded video of the GOP presidential nominee speaking at a private fundraiser in May. Romney's campaign has been bogged down in criticism from conservatives and Democrats alike since the release of the clip, in which Romney talks about how he couldn't count on the support of 47 percent of Americans, since they pay no taxes, and are "dependent" on government.

The Republican candidate has used it as campaign fodder as recently as Wednesday.

"This is how America works. It does not work by a government saying, become dependent on government. Become dependent upon redistribution. That will kill the American entrepreneurship that’s lifted our economy over the years," Romney told donors at a fundraiser this afternoon in Atlanta. "The question of this campaign is not who cares about the poor and the middle class? I do.  He does. The question is who can help the poor and the middle class? I can! He can’t!"

A Super PAC supporting Democrats, Majority PAC, went up with an ad in Virginia hitting Republican Senate candidate George Allen.

“He called programs like Medicare and Social Security a waste,” an announcer says, before almost goading fact checkers. “It’s true. George Allen said: ‘Whatever the government program is -- no matter how essential it is -- it’s a waste.’”

The ad, which a Majority PAC press release says began running Tuesday night, shows Allen making those exact comments and adds, “And that’s exactly the plan George Allen will take to Washington. Slashing Medicare. Cutting Social Security. Eliminating 700,000 jobs. All to pay for more tax breaks for millionaires. Why would we send George Allen back to Washington?

But Majority PAC takes Allen out of context.

The clip is taken from a five-minute segment from FOX in 2009. The segment is about waste at the Postal Service and health care. Medicare and Social Security never come up in the conversation.

Allen does make what seems to be a sweeping statement that applies to all federal programs, but the ad draws a direct line to Medicare and Social Security when no discussion in the referenced clip was to either program.

Here’s the video, which is on Allen’s YouTube channel, and a transcript of the first two-and-a-half minutes from the Dec. 22, 2009 show with guest host Charles Payne:

PAYNE: “Well, it’s billions in the red, but still spending your green. US Postal Service caught springing for parties, movies, even booze on taxpayer money. Government watchdog identifying nearly $800,000 in “imprudent spending.” My next guest is concerned that this is just a preview of coming attractions if the government takes over health care. George Allen, former Republican governor of Virginia, joins us now. Wow! This is a—I mean, listen, the post office is losing a lot of money to begin with and yet they can spring for stuff like this?

ALLEN: Yeah, Charles, you know, most Americans recognize that whatever the government program is, no matter how essential it is, it’s a waste. There’s constant waste in it and you know, here they are eating all sort of things – expensive meals and all the rest and here, folks that are working for a living and their money is confiscated in taxes to pay for these sort of things, it’s just galling. In fact, they found they’re having crab cakes and beef wellington, meanwhile we’re all eating cupcakes and beef jerky.

PAYNE: Gollee, I can tell you, I’ve never--, George, I can tell you, I’ve never even had beef wellington before! But tell us, though, now how do you make the connection? Do you think they’re going to do the same thing with this health care?--

ALLEN: Sure—

PAYNE: --it’ll be just one giant pot of money for parties.

ALLEN: Well, I’m not saying they’re going to have parties—

PAYNE: I know—

ALLEN: --they’ll have waste in it. But what are we getting, Charles? Those of us in it. What we’re getting hit with is higher taxes; we’re getting higher premium costs; you’re seeing for the states they have unfunded mandates to it; you’re going to have generally speaking a lower standard of health care while the social engineers and these elites in Washington are imposing this on the American people. It’s something that’s going to be harmful to small business, job growth, and on top of it all of it’s an experiment, health care experiment that’s going to cost $1 trillion that we don’t have and the last thing we need is more debt for these sort of experiments. The people of America need personal responsibility and freedom, not dependency on the government.