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  • Romney: 'I'm not a business'

    Romney sat down for an interview with Bloomberg/Business Week. There’s this exchange, in which Romney declares, “I’m not a business.”

    BLOOMBERG: “Let’s frame the issue around your tax returns in a slightly different way. If you’re an investor and you’re looking at a company, and that company says that its great strength is wise management and fiscal know-how, wouldn’t you want to see the previous, say, five years’ worth of its financials?” 

    ROMNEY: “I’m not a business. We have a process in this country, which was established by law, which provides for the transparency which candidates are required to meet. I have met with that requirement with full financial disclosure of all my investments, but in addition have provided and will provide a full two years of tax returns. This happens to be exactly the same as with John McCain when he ran for office four years ago. And the Obama team had no difficulty with that circumstance. The difference between then and now is that President Obama has a failed economic record and is trying to find any issue he can to deflect from the failure of his record.” 

    He even was asked about that photo of him holding a dollar bill with his colleagues at Bain. Romney said: “Oh, that was a moment of humor as we had just done what we thought was impossible. We had raised $37 million from other people and institutions who entrusted us with their funds, and we thought it was a miracle that our group had been able to be so successful in fundraising. And ultimately we were able to yield for them a very attractive return by such investments as Staples, which was in our very first fund.

    So it’s a happy memory. We had a great group of people, each one of whom I think of fondly.”

    And about his time at Bain: “You lose your money and people can lose jobs. That’s always devastating. And I learned that not every business will be successful, even those that have been carefully selected and thoroughly evaluated. … I have never believed in my own ability to succeed at everything. I recognize I’m a human being like everybody else and I make mistakes, and fall short time and again.”

    The Washington Post’s Blake: The health-care law which shall not be named is starting to get mentioned. Twice [yesterday], Mitt Romney’s campaign has cited the health-care law he signed as Massachusetts governor — seeking credit for something it took pains to explain away during the Republican primary race. Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul, responding to a harsh new super PAC ad featuring a man who blames Bain Capital for his uninsured wife’s death, broke new ground for the campaign by praising Romney’s health insurance mandate.”

    And: “Obama’s health-care law remains perhaps the biggest arrow in the GOP’s 2012 election quiver, because it so motivates the GOP base against the president. Romney has been criticized for enacting a very similar law in Massachusetts. He was largely able to finesse the issue in the primary season and gather conservatives to his side for the general election. But there remain some concerns that his own health-care law may make it harder for him to prosecute the case against Obama’s law. Top conservatives, including radio host Rush Limbaugh, were quick to criticize the move.”

    Some activist conservative reaction to a spokesperson’s comment on health care:

    Michelle Malkin: Pssst: NOBODY wants to hear about Romneycare.

    Erick Erickson: Today's statement on Romneycare would not have happened if higher up staff/consultants did not think it acceptable. They don't get it.

    And: “Email from a friend who wants to start a Kickstarter project to buy out Andrea Saul's contract with the Romney campaign. LOL.”

    Laura Ingraham: @AnnCoulter: "Sandra Fluke is the Andrea Saul of the Obama campaign."(After calling for Saul to be fired by @MittRomney 4citing Romneycare)

  • Rob Portman draws stark contrast between GOP and Obama

     

    DENVER, Colo. – Sen. Rob Portman, R-OH, visited Colorado Wednesday hoping to create a clear contrast between the GOP and President Barack Obama. And in front of a famed Obama backdrop, that difference looked as clear as it sounded.

    The Ohio senator hopped out of a Mitt Romney campaign bus parked near the football stadium where, in 2008, then-candidate Obama delivered a rousing address before tens of thousands of emphatic supporters. Portman, however, addressed just 50 supporters in the unpaved parking lot outside Sports Authority Field.

    "Four years ago this month, at the stadium right behind us, Barack Obama gave an interesting speech, didn't he?" Portman said. He picked apart Obama's speech, listing promises the president made about the economy and jobs that Portman said he hasn’t kept. Portman also noted the development of clean coal technologies and U.S. energy resources like natural gas and oil as failures.


    "He said, you know, elect me and I'm going to bring people together to solve big problems. Has he done that? No he hasn't, sadly he has not," Portman said.

    Another difference in setting that he pointed out was the absence of the Greek pillars that stood behind Obama during his convention speech, a visual that has become a Republican talking point since Greece's economic chaos of recent years.

    "I expected to have the Parthenon behind me or something, whatever he had that day," Portman joked.

    Portman's visit to the site of the 2008 Democratic National Convention was just one of five stops he made in the Centennial State on Wednesday, the same day Obama made campaign stops throughout the state.

    And though the low-key potential vice presidential contender did not match the crowd size or attention as the president’s stop, he did have some boasting rights about a new poll that shows Romney ahead of Obama in this critical swing state.

    Romney holds a tight lead over Obama in Colorado, according to a recently released Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll.

    "Guess what's going to welcome President Obama to Colorado as he lands here this morning? Some new poll numbers out ... showing that Mitt Romney is ahead by five points in Colorado," Portman said during the day's first stop at a gas station in Johnston, Colo. "So look, they've outspent us but they cannot outwork us, right?"

    Although the Buckeye State senator has remained mum on whether he wants or plans to join the national ticket, his schedule of late has been as busy as what one might expect from a national candidate. He raised more than $500,000 for Romney in his home state of Ohio during fundraisers on Monday and Tuesday, a dollar amount he today said was a "lowball" estimate. And, with the presumptive nominee's deep bench of surrogates, it was Portman who got the call to bracket the president in the important swing state.

    But also on display during the senator's trip here was how unknown he is. At Johnson's Corner truck stop, onlookers eating breakfast or filling up on gas saw the large bus emblazoned with Romney's name and wanted to know if the candidate was onboard. When told it was Portman, several admitted they were unfamiliar with the name.

    Portman’s trip was half bracketing and half rallying the troops on his own side of the aisle. Portman visited three Romney Victory Centers where he made phone calls and greeted volunteers and staffers. He used his experience as a politician in a swing state to motivate the grassroots effort. He told a gathering of Romney supporters in Jefferson County that their work could determine the outcome of the election, and with it, the fate of the country.

    "As goes JeffCo, so goes Colorado. As goes Colorado, so goes the nation," Portman said.

     

  • In Michigan, Tim Pawlenty remains mum about Romney VP selection

     

    PORTAGE, Mich. -- It's possible that Tim Pawlenty is days from stepping onto a stage before thousands of cheering supporters as Mitt Romney's newly-minted running mate. But you wouldn't know it from his swing through central Michigan on Wednesday, where the former governor appeared at nondescript campaign offices and addressed just dozens of supporters as they snacked on cookies and lemonade. 

    "Mitt Romney didn't spend his entire life in government," Pawlenty said to a small group of GOP devotees in Jackson. "He knows how to get jobs going."

    Who will Mitt Romney pick as his running mate? NBC's Claire Leka reports.

    Even after dutifully delivering laugh lines – like calling the president "all foam and no beer" – Pawlenty didn't escape "veep" speculation from his audience, with one supporter in Jackson asking him if he'll return to the state as vice president. 


    "I've been back to Michigan a fair amount," he demurred. "But as to the vice presidential thing, we'll know soon enough." 

    Devoid of the camera platforms and elaborate sound systems typically on hand for political celebrities' events, Pawlenty's appearances showed him to be anything but a campaign diva. When the fold-up table he was supposed to sit behind in Portage was in the wrong place, he helped to carry it to a more suitable spot. When a portable microphone in Jackson proved too loud for backers' ears, he ditched it over the complaints of reporters eager to record his every word. 

    "We don't want them to get the sound!" he joked to the crowd. 

    The trip, which involved an early morning flight to the Great Lake State and several hours of trekking in an SUV driven by an aide, showed Pawlenty's talents as an approachable and disciplined pol even as national reporters dogged him with questions about the vice presidential selection process. 

    Is he stopping by Romney's Boston headquarters on his way to his scheduled New Hampshire events this weekend?

    "I'm flying into Boston and then traveling immediately up to New Hampshire to start [my] schedule."

    Will he be meeting VP selection guru Beth Myers?

    "We have a policy, the campaign just doesn't talk about the vice presidential vetting process." 

    How's the process going?  

    He rattled off the names of GOP up-and-comers, scattering in other possible Romney running mates including women and minorities breathing new life into the GOP: Susanna Martinez, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, Rob Portman and Paul Ryan.  

    "And David Petraeus," he added, perhaps a sly nod to a flurry of speculation that surrounded a now-debunked story on the Drudge Report that the CIA director was in the running for the job. 

    Widely regarded as one of the Romney campaign's most loyal surrogates, Pawlenty insisted Wednesday that there's no job title that motivates his determined campaigning on behalf of a man he once fought against for the GOP nod. 

    "The objective here isn't about a position or about some title for any of the candidates or the people trying to help. We are trying to get the country back on the right track," he said. "For me that's meant doing things like this as a volunteer where I can go out and speak on Gov. Romney's behalf in places where he can't be." 

    And many of those places aren't glitzy, politically or economically. In past years, Jackson has suffered a poverty rate twice that of Michigan as a whole. The Kalamazoo area clocked in for an Obama win of 20 points in 2008. 

    As Pawlenty wrapped up a brief stop at a strip-mall campaign office in Portage, his possible second-in-command competitor Sen. Rob Portman was wrapping up an (albeit smaller) event outside of Mile High Stadium in hotly-contested Colorado. 

    Still, the former governor of Minnesota has one psychological advantage that possible running mates Portman and Paul Ryan lack -- the experience of going through the lengthy vetting process only to be greeted with a "thanks but no thanks." 

    "In 2008, I was on some speculators' list as John McCain's selection for VP," he told reporters. "It's an honor to be considered. It's an honor for anyone to be considered, but also it has some deja vu qualities since I've been through it before." 

  • Romney continues welfare charge, says Obama wants 'spirit of dependence'

    DES MOINES, Iowa, and WASHINGTON -- For a second consecutive day, Mitt Romney and his allies accused President Obama of trying to undermine bipartisan welfare reform by removing the requirement that recipients work to receive payments, an attack that has many independent fact checkers, as well as Democrats, crying foul.

    "Back at that time, then-Sen. Obama, was opposed to putting work together with welfare," Romney said of the bipartisan 1996 welfare reform law, passed when President Obama was an Illinois state senator. "Now he’s president. Just a few days ago, he put that original intent in place. With a very careful executive action he removed the requirement of work from welfare. It is wrong to make any change that would make America more of a nation of government dependency. We must restore it and I will restore work in welfare.”

    Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney emerges from a corn field with Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey while touring the farm of Lemar Koethe.

    First Read and independent fact-checkers called the attack that Obama was trying to "gut" the work requirement in welfare -- debuted by Romney yesterday in a television ad and on the stump -- misleading.

    Former President Bill Clinton issued a statement last night also calling the charge "not true." "The Administration has taken important steps to ensure that the work requirement is retained and that waivers will be granted only if a state can demonstrate that more people will be moved into work under its new approach," Clinton said in a statement.

    As far as whether Obama was for or against welfare reform in 1996, there's fodder for both sides. Obama said then he would not have voted for the federal version, but, since it had passed, co-sponsored Illinois' version to adapt to the law.

    The Romney campaign's policy director Lanhee Chen yesterday charged in a memo that Obama "took to the floor of the Illinois state senate to announce his opposition. A devoted believer in old-school, big-government liberalism, Mr. Obama had no interest in embracing the welfare reform package that linked welfare to work. Now as president, with an economy struggling, an election looming, and a dispirited liberal base in need of encouragement, he has decided to turn back the clock."

    But the Obama campaign's policy director James Kvaal shot back yesterday on a campaign conference call with reporters. “As a state senator he worked with Republicans in Illinois to implement welfare reform," Kvaal said. "Back then his work earned him praise from Republicans in the state senate. One of whom thanked him for his bipartisan support and work to get welfare reform done in Illinois.”

    Politifact seemed to settle this back in August of 2008 after Michelle Obama claimed of her husband, "It's what he did in the Illinois Senate, moving people from welfare to jobs...."

    Politifact called her statement "mostly true" with some caveats:

    "President Bill Clinton and Congress significantly overhauled welfare in 1996, requiring recipients to work and setting time limits on benefits. The states in turn had to change their laws to meet the new federal requirements. In 1997, Obama signed up as a chief co-sponsor (one of five in the Senate) on Illinois' version of the legislation. But the Illinois governor at the time, Republican Jim Edgar, got a lot of credit as well. Press reports from the time referred to the plan as 'the Edgar plan.' This isn't the first time Obama has referred to Illinois laws as if he passed them singlehandedly.

    "Also, in floor remarks from the time, Obama expressed less than full support for the federal legislation. He was particularly concerned that people removed from welfare would be able to receive training so they could earn a living wage.

    " 'I am not a defender of the status quo with respect to welfare,' Obama said on the Illinois Senate floor. 'Having said that, I probably would not have supported the federal legislation, because I think it had some problems. But I'm a strong believer in making lemonade out of lemons. ... I think this is a good start, and I urge support of this bill.'

    "Nevertheless, the legislation's primary role was welfare reform, and the legislative record shows that Obama had a leadership role in getting it passed."

    Before an audience of several hundred supporters in a high school auditorium here, Romney doubled down on the welfare attacks, calibrated to appeal to white middle- and working-class voters, insisting that the president was intent on creating a culture of dependency in America. 

    "Of course we take care of, in America, the people who can’t take care of themselves," Romney said. "When it comes to the spirit of America, I want to restore the spirit of independence. I do not want to install a spirit of dependence on government. And that’s the direction we’re going.”

    In a conference call with reporters timed for the conclusion of Romney's remarks, former house speaker Newt Gingrich -- a co-architect of the welfare reform plan, along with Clinton -- praised the former president while attacking the current president, and said he felt the welfare reform issue was a good one for Romney to focus on to demonstrate stark differences between the two parties.

    "In many ways Obama is the anti-Clinton. Clinton was trying to move the party to the center, Obama is moving it to the left," Gingrich told reporters, then pivoting to next month's Democratic convention, where Clinton is expected to speak before president Obama. He urged wavering Democrats and independent voters to consider "how much weaker and less effective a President Obama is than the man who is nominating him."

  • First Thoughts: The final three

    From left, Sen. Rob Portman, Rep. Paul Ryan & Former Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty

    Romney’s three VP finalists: Pawlenty (the loyal outsider), Portman (the insider), and Ryan (the crusader)… GOPers are currently split over whether Romney should pick Ryan… New Q-polls: Romney leads in CO -- where Obama stumps today -- but trails in VA and WI… The Romney camp’s danger in elevating Bill Clinton: You turn him into a fair observer just before his primetime convention speech… New Romney and Priorities USA TV ads play loose with the facts… Romney Hood vs. Obamaloney… McCaskill gets her man… And conservatives in MO and KS wage (and win) the “Border War.”

    Scott Olson / Getty Images

    Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks to workers during a campaign event at Acme Industries on August 7, 2012 in Elk Grove Village, Illinois.

    *** The final three: We can say with a high degree of confidence that Mitt Romney’s vice-presidential pick has largely come down to three men: former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan. And it’s more than possible that Romney has already made up his mind. All three VP finalists bring something different to the table. Pawlenty is the loyal outsider, who would enable a Romney-Pawlenty ticket to run as former governors vowing to take on Washington; Pawlenty also potentially would add some blue-collar appeal to the ticket. Portman would be the insider, someone who knows the ways of Washington and who could help govern starting on Day 1. And Ryan would be the crusader, who wants to substantially transform America’s entitlement programs and who would excite a good portion of the GOP’s conservative base. Indeed, Ryan has emerged a VERY REAL possibility, but he also brings the most risk. If Romney selects him, it’s more than conceivable that the dominant campaign discussion in the fall won’t be the economy -- but rather the deficit and Medicare. Of course, there was already a good chance the Ryan plan will get plenty attention regardless of Romney’s VP pick.

    *** Bold vs. cautious GOPers divided on Ryan: Politico writes that Republican observers are split on Ryan. “Ryan advocates, including some of his colleagues and high-profile conservative elites, believe Romney will lose if he doesn’t make a more assertive case for his candidacy and that selecting the 42-year-old wonky golden boy would sound a clarion call to the electorate about the sort of reforms the presumptive GOP nominee wants to bring to Washington. Call them the ‘go bold’ crowd.” On the other hand: “Their opposites, pragmatic-minded Republican strategists and elected officials, believe that to select Ryan is to hand President Barack Obama’s campaign a twin-edged blade, letting the incumbent slash Romney on the Wisconsin congressman’s Medicare proposal and carve in the challenger a scarlet ‘C’ for the unpopular Congress. This is the cautious corner.”

    NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro narrow down Mitt Romney's vice presidential candidate picks to three and discuss newly released  poll numbers.

    *** Polling the over-50 crowd: Just how important could the debate over the Ryan budget, especially if he’s Romney’s VP pick? Just consider this AARP poll of voters over 50, in which Obama and Romney are tied 45-45% with the group (and with Obama’s approval at just 42%). Per this poll, 91% believe “Social Security is critical to the economic security of seniors” and “the next president and Congress need to strengthen Social Security so that it is able to provide retirement security for future generations.” (That includes about three-quarters of Romney voters.) And on Medicare: 95% say “Medicare is critical to maintaining the health of seniors” and 88% say the next president and Congress “need to strengthen Medicare so that it is able to provide health coverage in retirement for future generations.” The poll was conducted by Hart Research and GS Strategy Group. (Disclosure: Hart Research is the Democratic half of the NBC-WSJ poll.)

    *** Romney leads in CO, but Obama’s ahead in VA and WI: Last week, President Obama campaigned in Florida and Ohio -- just as new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS polls showed him leading (and above 50%) in those two states. But today, as he begins a two-day swing through Colorado, the same polling outfit shows him trailing Romney among likely by five points in the state, 50%-45%. That said, new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS surveys also show Obama leading in Virginia (49%-45%) and Wisconsin (51%-45%). So out of the six battleground states that Quinnipiac has polled in the past two weeks -- Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin -- Obama leads in five of them. And speaking of polls, a new national Washington Post/ABC survey finds that Romney’s fav/unfav is still underwater at 40%-49% versus Obama’s 53%-43%. In fact, ABC adds that Romney “is laboring under the lowest personal popularity ratings for a presumptive presidential nominee in midsummer election-year polls back to 1984.”

    *** The GOP’s danger in elevating Bill Clinton: Over the past few months, the Romney campaign has elevated Bill Clinton (and even Hillary) in an attempt to divide Democrats and to appeal to downscale white voters. And now comes the Romney camp’s latest TV ad. “In 1996, President Clinton and a bipartisan Congress helped end welfare as we know it by requiring work for welfare,” the narrator says in it. “But on July 12th, President Obama quietly announced a plan to gut welfare reform by dropping work requirements.” As Greg Sargent writes, this effort is to portray Clinton as the “good” kind of Democrat and Obama as the “bad” kind. But there is a real danger here for the Romney campaign and Republicans: Clinton is supporting Obama, and he can swing back like he did last night when he released a statement calling the ad “not true.” More Clinton: The recently announced waiver policy was originally requested by the Republican governors of Utah and Nevada to achieve more flexibility in designing programs more likely to work in this challenging environment. The administration has taken important steps to ensure that the work requirement is retained and that waivers will be granted only if a state can demonstrate that more people will be moved into work under its new approach.”

    *** You turn him into a fair observer, just when he has a primetime speaking slot: What’s more, Clinton will be delivering a big primetime speech at the Democratic convention. So when the Romney campaign airs this kind of TV ad -- elevating Clinton as a fair observer in this presidential contest -- persuadable voters might be paying attention to what Clinton has to say at the Dem convention. And what happens if Bubba unloads on Romney? Just something to consider…

    *** Playing loose with the facts: Speaking of that new Romney TV ad on welfare, First Read has already pointed out that it’s a dubious assertion to claim that Obama is trying to “gut welfare reform.” Why? Because the HHS memo in question clearly states that it “will only consider approving waivers relating to the work participation requirements that make changes intended to lead to more effective means of meeting the work goals of TANF." In other words, the work requirement is still there. So when Romney told FOX last night that Obama believes that “they shouldn’t have to have the work requirement” isn’t a correct statement. But there is a clear reason why the Romney camp wants to continue airing this TV ad: Obama continues to overperform with downscale whites, especially in places like Ohio. But this Romney advertisement isn’t the only new TV ad out there that’s playing loose with the facts. The pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action has a spot with a man claiming that he lost his family’s health insurance after Bain Capital helped close a Kansas City steel plant in 2001 -- and that his wife died shortly after. But as Politico notes, the man’s wife died in 2006, years after the steel plant closed down.

    *** “Romney Hood” vs. “Obamaloney”: But not only are the TV ads playing loose with the facts, the rhetoric on the campaign trail also has devolved to name calling. So on Monday night, there was Obama talking about “Romney Hood,” seizing on that recent non-partisan Tax Policy Center report. "[Romney would] ask the middle class to pay more taxes so that he could give another $250,000 tax cut to people making more than $3 million a year. It's like Robin Hood in Reverse. It's Romney Hood!" And here’s how Romney countered to FOX: “We’ve been watching the president say a lot of things about me and about my policies. And they’re just not right. And if I were to coin a term, it would be ‘Obamaloney.’” Have we really gotten to the name calling stage of the campaign in August?  Ugly. Are the candidates proud of the tone of the campaign?  

    *** On the trail: Obama stumps in Colorado, hitting Denver at 3:20 pm ET and Grand Junction at 7:25 pm ET… Romney campaigns in Des Moines, IA at 9:25 am ET… Meanwhile, Romney’s surrogates and VP possibilities are out in full force -- Portman attends campaign office openings in Colorado; Pawlenty visits Michigan; and Chris Christie raises money for Romney in California.

    *** McCaskill gets her man: Endangered Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) caught a real break last night when the one challenger she was HOPING to run against -- Rep. Todd Akin (R) -- surprisingly won his competitive three-way GOP Senate primary in Missouri last night. As National Journal writes, “Polls have showed McCaskill trailing Akin though she polls closer to him than she did against businessman John Brunner and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who Akin edged Tuesday.” This Missouri Senate contest is a real race now. McCaskill still may lose, but it’s going to be close. Meanwhile, while Democrats were bracing that Jay Inslee (D) would come in second to Rob McKenna (R) in Washington state’s blanket gubernatorial primary, it turns out that Inslee got 47% to McKenna’s 43%, per the Seattle Times. Now, as Democrats had been telling First Read, the blanket primary isn’t the best way to judge what will happen in November, because the electorates are different. But still, Democrats have to feel good about last night’s result in Washington.

    *** Conservatives wage and win ‘Border War’: The Kansas-Missouri rivalry -- in sports as well as what happened in the 1800s -- is known as the “Border War” and last night conservatives won their own version in both states with Akin’s win in Missouri and the conservative state Senate takeover in Kansas. In Missouri, after his victory last night, Akin declared: “This campaign is about reclaiming our Godly values, rebuilding the American Dream, restoring the America that we love.” Across the border, in Kansas, nine incumbent, moderate-leaning GOP state senators, including the Senate president, were ousted -- and it was fueled by outside money, including from the Koch Brothers. Their sin: Working with Democrats “to block some of the most aggressive parts of [Gov. Sam] Brownback’s agenda.” NPR: “The Kansas GOP’s not getting over this any time soon. Normally, after a primary, the party throws a unity breakfast. Not this morning.”

    Countdown to GOP convention: 19 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 26 days
    Countdown to 1st presidential debate: 56 days
    Countdown to VP debate: 64 days
    Countdown to 2nd presidential debate: 69 days
    Countdown to 3rd presidential debate: 75 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 90 days

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  • 2012: Romney up in CO, but trailing in VA and WI

    This isn’t what President Obama wanted to see heading into Colorado today. Romney leads 50-45%, in a new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS poll.

    Obama is up, however, in Virginia, 49-45%, and Wisconsin, 51-45%.

    According to an AARP poll of voters over 50, Obama and Romney are tied 45-45% with the group. But Obama gets just a 42%-49% approval rating among them. What’s more, this group really dislikes Congress. The deliberative body gets just an 8% approval rating, with 81% disapproving. The group narrowly prefers Democrats to control Congress (43-39%). They “are as likely to say that their personal economic circumstances were negatively affected by political gridlock in Washington (78%) as by the economic downturn (77%).” They also “want the candidates to better explain their plans for Social Security and Medicare, which will help them determine their votes.”

    And for anyone who thinks the Paul Ryan budget wouldn’t become an issue, these voters are strongly in favor of Social Security and Medicare: 91% believe “Social Security is critical to the economic security of seniors” and “the next president and Congress need to strengthen Social Security so that it is able to provide retirement security for future generations.” (That includes about three-quarters of Romney voters.) On Medicare: 95% say “Medicare is critical to maintaining the health of seniors” and 88% say “The next president and Congress need to strengthen Medicare so that it is able to provide health coverage in retirement for future generations.”

    The poll was conducted by Hart Research and GS Strategy Group. (Disclosure: Hart Research is the Democratic half of the NBC-WSJ poll.)

  • Romney: Bill Clinton strikes back

    Bill Clinton in a statement on Romney’s welfare attack: “Governor Romney released an ad today alleging that the Obama administration had weakened the work requirements of the 1996 Welfare Reform Act. That is not true. The act emerged after years of experiments at the state level, including my work as Governor of Arkansas beginning in 1980.  When I became President, I granted waivers from the old law to 44 states to implement welfare to work strategies before welfare reform passed.

    “After the law was enacted, every state was required to design a plan to move people into the workforce, along with more funds to help pay for training, childcare and transportation. As a result, millions of people moved from welfare to work. The recently announced waiver policy was originally requested by the Republican governors of Utah and Nevada to achieve more flexibility in designing programs more likely to work in this challenging environment.  The Administration has taken important steps to ensure that the work requirement is retained and that waivers will be granted only if a state can demonstrate that more people will be moved into work under its new approach.  The welfare time limits, another important feature of the 1996 act, will not be waived. The Romney ad is especially disappointing because, as governor of Massachusetts, he requested changes in the welfare reform laws that could have eliminated time limits altogether.  We need a bipartisan consensus to continue to help people move from welfare to work even during these hard times, not more misleading campaign ads.”

    USA Today: “Former President Bill Clinton is backing up successor Barack Obama, blasting a Mitt Romney ad attacking the incumbent over welfare reform as untrue.”

    The Romney campaign’s response from Ryan Williams: “President Obama was a vocal opponent of the innovative, bipartisan welfare reforms that President Clinton and a Republican Congress passed in 1996. His administration has now undermined the central premise of those reforms by gutting the welfare-to-work requirement. Unlike President Obama, Mitt Romney has a record of fighting to strengthen work requirements. As president, he will ensure that nearly sixteen years of progress aren’t erased with one stroke of a pen.”

    The Boston Globe: “Romney says Obama favors 'culture of dependency'.”

    The Iowa wind story isn’t blowing away: “Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign has been savaging what it calls President Barack Obama’s ‘unhealthy’ obsession with ‘green jobs,’”  the AP writes. “The Republican challenger criticizes the government program that propped up solar manufacturer Solyndra, and he mocks Obama’s vision of a boom in employment, citing a European study to argue that new solar or wind-energy positions would destroy jobs elsewhere. But when a campaign spokesman said last week that Congress should let a tax break for wind energy producers expire at the end of the year, some Republicans were concerned the candidate had gone too far.

    “Republican Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, noting that nearly 7,000 Iowans work in the wind industry, assailed the Romney campaign for ‘a lack of full understanding of how important the wind energy tax credit is for Iowa and our nation.’ Iowa’s senior senator, Chuck Grassley, told reporters he didn’t believe Romney really opposed the extension, and he joined five other GOP lawmakers in voting for it in the Senate Finance Committee.”

    “A group that opposes the Boy Scouts of America’s ban on gay members is using presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to help make its case,” the Boston Globe notes. “Romney’s campaign restated his position that gay people should be allowed to join the Boy Scouts of America in an Associated Press story published on Saturday. Romney first declared his support for gay scouts and leaders in 1994 -- when he was a member of the organization’s executive board -- during an unsuccessful run for US Senate. In a debate that year, Romney said, ‘I support the right of the Boy Scouts of America to decide what it wants to do on that issue. I feel that all people should be able to participate in the Boy Scouts regardless of their sexual orientation.’ Romney campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul told the AP that the former Massachusetts governor nominee feels the same way today.”

    The RNC announced more speakers at their convention, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, whom RNC Chair Reince Priebus called a headliner. Also speaking: Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, who is African American; Texas Republican U.S. Senate Nominee Ted Cruz; Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuño; and Georgia Attorney General Sam Olens.

  • Obama: Priorities' negative TV ad turning heads

    “The latest ad by the pro-Obama Priorities USA Action super political action committee, part of a $20 million campaign, is the most intense negative media attack yet on Romney for his 15-year stewardship of the Bain Capital private equity firm and the layoffs that sometimes resulted from the firm’s cost-cutting at its takeover targets,” the AP writes. “Soptic’s conclusion that Romney bears some blame in his wife’s death is not backed up factually in the ad.”

    “The super PAC backing President Obama unveiled a brutal new ad against Mitt Romney on Tuesday that blames the Republican candidate for indirectly causing a woman's death from cancer,” the New York Daily News writes, adding, “Ads run by super PACs are typically harsher than the candidates' own campaign ads, although the Priorities USA ad called ‘Understands’ is turning heads even by those standards.”

    And: “[A]ccording to a Politico report, the woman didn’t die until 2006 – years after the plant shut down and near the end of Romney’s tenure as governor of Massachusetts. Priorities USA strategist Bill Burton told Politico that her death was still related to Romney’s oversight of Bain.”  

    “In 1990, basketball superstar Michael Jordan famously refused to endorse Democrat Harvey Gantt in a North Carolina Senate race, saying ‘Republicans buy shoes, too,’” the Boston Globe notes. “Twenty-two years later, Jordan is apparently no longer worried about sneaker sales. The Hall of Famer will headline a celebrity basketball game that will double as a fund-raiser for President Obama, the Obama campaign announced Tuesday. Other high-profile participants in the Obama Classic will include Patrick Ewing, Carmelo Anthony, Sheryl Swoopes, Kyrie Irving and Alonzo Mourning.”

  • Veepstakes: Ryan rising

    RYAN: Robert Costa: “These days, you hear it everywhere — from Republican donors and veteran operatives, and at Capitol Hill watering holes. A few weeks ago, it was a wishful rumor floating in the Beltway ether. Now, sources close to the Romney campaign say it’s for real, that the taciturn former Massachusetts governor is quietly warming to the idea. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the budget king of the GOP, may be Mitt Romney’s veep.”

  • More 2012: Conservative takeover

    KANSAS: “Backed by a waterfall of dollars from political action committees and other outside groups, conservative Republican senate candidates won all but a few key races over Republicans who were labeled more moderate during bruising campaigns,” the Wichita Eagle writes. “The victories will likely pave the way for Gov. Sam Brownback’s agenda for at least the next two years, although general election challenges by Democrats could change that.”

    More: “Statewide, nine incumbent Republican senators, including Senate President Steve Morris, were poised to lose their positions as an onslaught of conservative challengers with strong backing from the Kansas Chamber of Commerce and other political groups won over the relative modest percent of voters who turned out to vote.”

    What’s behind what happened: “Republicans have long dominated state politics, but in 2010, limited government candidates aligned more with tea party ideals than traditional Republican thinking, took over most of state government, led by Gov. Sam Brownback. Brownback made cutting taxes, shrinking government and privatizing services for the poor and disabled the cornerstone of his agenda. He has consistent support from the House, where Republicans hold a powerful 92-33 majority. But his plans have met resistance in the Senate, where Democrats and moderate Republicans formed a majority to block some of the most aggressive parts of Brownback’s agenda.”

    And: “Koch Industries gave $125,000 to the Kansas Chamber of Commerce PAC, which announced support for Brownback-aligned conservative candidates late last year and gave hundreds of thousands to conservative candidates who sought to defeat incumbent Republican senators. Koch gave another $20,000 to the Wichita Metro Chamber of Commerce PAC, fueling similar ads aimed at knocking out incumbent Republicans the Chamber once supported. Wichita oilman and Brownback supporter David Murfin gave $80,000 to the state chamber to help pay for ads attacking incumbent Republican senators.”

    MISSOURI: “St. Louis area U.S. Rep. Todd Akin, a staunch conservative who refused to attack his opponents, on Tuesday won Missouri’s Republican U.S. Senate nomination,” the Kansas City Star writes. “He’ll face Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill in November in a race that will offer Missourians a sharp contrast between a six-term congressman who has said he’s committed to sharply cutting the federal budget and a Democrat determined to maintain a basic safety net for most Americans.”

    And this happened… “Missouri voters Tuesday overwhelmingly approved a state constitutional amendment that supporters said will protect religious freedom,” the Kansas City Star reports. “The measure — Amendment 2 — says Missourians’ right to express religious beliefs can’t be infringed. It protects voluntary prayer in schools and requires public schools to display a copy of the Bill of Rights. With all but two precincts statewide counted, 779,628 voted yes on the measure and 162,404 voted no, roughly a 5-1 margin. Many supporters referred to the measure as the ‘Right to Pray’ amendment.”

  • Paul Ryan set to take vacation amid VP fervor

     

    OAK CREEK, WI — As speculation over whom Mitt Romney might choose as a running mate reaches a fever pitch, one of the Republicans rumored to be on the short list — Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan — is going on vacation.

    Ryan told reporters here that he is taking his family to Colorado, beginning Saturday, for a weeklong trip during the summer congressional recess. 

    "I'm just doing my August schedule as I planned my August," Ryan said, adding that he will first spend the next two days campaigning in Northwest Wisconsin for local candidates.

    Friday, Ryan said he will spend the day in his native Janesville preparing for his trip by getting his tent and backpack ready.

    Meanwhile, speculation has grown surrounding just when Romney will name his No. 2 has grown; some believe it could come as early as this week. That, presumably, would take Ryan out of the equation if he maintains his current schedule and heads to Colorado.

    Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who are seen as the other top VP contenders, are campaigning for Romney this week. Portman has five events Wednesday in Colorado while Pawlenty has scheduled events in Michigan and New Hampshire through the end of the week. Romney kicks off a four day, four state bus tour on Saturday.

    While Ryan's name has been mentioned more and more in the past few days, the congressman brushed that off.

    "I think that's just because of the convention. Its volume," he said while greeting folks at Oak Creek's National Night Out event.

    Ryan commonly refuses to discuss his VP chances — as he did tonight when a constituent asked him about it — but said Tuesday night he will definitely attend the GOP convention in Tampa.

    "Scott [Walker], our governor, we're doing a beer and brats thing," the congressman said, adding that he wasn't sure whether he would have a speaking position at the convention.

    "My staff has talked to Reince [Priebus]. I haven't talked to Reince," Ryan said of the Republican National Committee chairman and fellow Wisconsinite."I haven't talked to Reince in awhile."

    Ryan was scheduled to speak at a vigil later Tuesday night to honor the victims of the shooting at the Sikh Temple Sunday in his district.

     

  • Obama camp asks supporters to dish dirt on possible Romney veeps

     

    As speculation abounds about Mitt Romney's selection for a running mate, the Obama campaign is revving the engines to ensure its supporters in the home states of the possible picks are ready to dish some local dirt.

    In emails to supporters in Ohio, Florida, and Minnesota, Obama for America invites critics of hometown pols Sen. Rob Portman, Sen. Marco Rubio, and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty to "share what you think Americans need to know about" the could-be vice presidential candidates.


    An email to Obama for America's Minnesota supporters calls Pawlenty "our former governor and 'Obamneycare' critic" and asks if the onetime presidential candidate "will really be Mitt Romney's running mate."

    "Most Americans don't know Tim Pawlenty," the email reads. "But as a Minnesotan, you do -- and the truth is painful for the middle-class families who lived under his leadership. Like Romney, Pawlenty proved that when he's in charge, fees and taxes go up, job creation goes down, transparency gets worse, and women's rights are threatened."

    The message: Those who know the talked-about running mates need to spread the word to a nation that doesn't know much about the "disaster" each would be as Romney's partner in the White House.

    An email to Floridians dumps a sampling of opposition research on Rubio: "In the Florida State House, Rubio balanced the budget by sticking it to the middle class. And in the Senate, Rubio's led the way on almost every extreme position Mitt Romney has embraced. If chosen as Romney's VP, we can count on Rubio to lead us right back to the failed economic policies of the past. Remember -- this is the guy who called George W. Bush a ‘fantastic’ president."

    A similar message was sent to Ohio Obama backers about Sen. Rob Portman: "The most damning pieces of his record involve choices he made as a senior member of the Bush-Cheney administration and conservative congressman, the consequences of which still reverberate on a national scale."

    The message continued: "As one of the architects of the top-down Bush budget, Portman practically invented the policies that punished middle-class families while exploding the deficit, and crashing our economy."

    Each email contains a link to a clearinghouse site where participants can, for example, "share what you think the rest of the country should know about what Rubio's really done in Florida -- the good, bad, and ugly -- and why he'd be a disaster as our next vice president."

    The grassroots communication effort is similar to one launched by the Obama campaign during the GOP primaries.

    So far, none of the other possible picks - like Wisconsin's Paul Ryan, Louisiana's Bobby Jindal, or New Jersey's Chris Christie - have received the same treatment. But as the buzz picks up, more such efforts could be on the way.

    NBC's Andrew Rafferty contributed to this report.

  • Obama campaign: No policy that 'waters down' work will be considered

    The Obama campaign said no state "that waters down work requirements will be considered" for a waiver under the administration's policy, announced last month, intended to give more flexibility to states on how they implement welfare programs.

    But it did not answer why it implemented the policy through the Department of Health and Human Services rather than go through Congress.

    The issue today became a flashpoint in the presidential campaign with the Romney campaign pushing the issue in a television ad, a subsequent conference call, and an event with the candidate himself.

    The announcement was made July 12th in an HHS memo. Republicans on Capitol Hill charged the Obama administration was trying to weaken welfare reform.

    The Romney campaign picked up on that today, accusing Obama of wanting to "gut" the 1990s welfare policy. They used it as a political weapon, accusing the president of being to the left of Bill Clinton, the former Democratic president and husband of one-time Obama rival Hillary Clinton, currently serving as Obama's Secretary of State.

    Here's a portion of an Obama campaign conference call this afternoon with John Podesta, Clinton's former chief of staff, and James Kvaal, the Obama campaign's policy director: 

    NBC: Hey guys, the waiver memo does though open up the possibility that states could loosen restrictions on work, if approved. Doesn’t that violate the heart of the welfare reform law? And isn’t this going around Congress? Shouldn’t this have been something done through Congress if he [the president] felt this program was really broken?

    PODESTA: Let me start and let James, you know, speak for the campaign: as I noted in the beginning, the idea of giving states waivers in order to implement the underlying tenants of policy is something that has been very crucial in designing a successful welfare to work program.  In that context, the secretary is definitely keeping with that tradition.  While there’s flexibility given, it’s been pointed out in this call, the most critical criteria that you actually have to increase work -- you have to put 20 percent more people in work in order to get, in order to get the waiver.  So while there’s administrative relief, the end result is that more people will be working and less collecting a check without work.

    KVAAL: I agree with John’s comments, what we’re doing is we’re giving state’s the flexibility to strengthen the program, but in order to do that they have to increase the number of people moving from welfare to work. And more over, Sec. Sibelius has been totally clear in her July 18th letter that no policy that waters down work requirements will be considered.

    NBC's Jordan Frasier contributed to this report.

  • Portman calls says Obama's attacks are growing 'desperate'

     

    ONTARIO, OH -- Ohio Sen. Rob Portman on Tuesday called recent attacks against him by President Obama's campaign "desperate" and further proof they do not have a record to run on.

    Speaking to reporters after touring a farm in Shelby, OH, Portman responded to emails from the Obama camp slamming him and other potential Republican vice presidential picks. 

    "Rob Portman has been our senator for two years now, but the most damning pieces of his record involve choices he made as a senior member of the Bush-Cheney administration and conservative congressman, the consequences of which still reverberate on a national scale," said an email sent to Ohioans from the Obama For America state director. "As one of the architects of the top-down Bush budget, Portman practically invented the policies that punished middle-class families while exploding the deficit, and crashing our economy."

    "I think the Democrats are getting kind of desperate," Portman said in response. "They don't want to talk about their record, and gosh, you can't blame them."

    His connection to the George W. Bush administration has been one of the most talked about drawbacks of adding Portman to a national ticket. The former Office of Management and Budget chief is quick to defend his record, today saying "I'm proud of my service in the Bush administration." 

    The junior senator from Ohio has kept a busy schedule since Congress began its August recess.  He's done a a mix of events in his home state -- both in his capacity as a senator and as a Romney surrogate.  But regardless of whether he's out on his own behalf or that of the presumptive nominee, nearly all his appearances these days feature Portman going on the offensive against the current administration and defending Romney.

    And as speculation has grown about his chances of being named VP nominee, Portman has found himself spending more and more time defending his own record.  He points to his work for a balanced budget and deficit only a fraction what it is today as his ready answer to questions about his connection to Bush.

    After touring the farm, Portman headed over to Ontario, OH to help open a Romney Victory Office there.  Though he said he plans to attend the Republican Convention in Tampa later this month, he said he has not had any communication about a speaking slot.

    He did say, however, he is looking forward to some social events thrown by another member of the Ohio delegation, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH).

    "The Boehner parties are always the best parties," said Portman. "I mean, come on, let's face it."

  • Dubious claim behind Romney welfare attack

     

    The latest attack launched by Mitt Romney involves an assertion that President Obama has decided to "gut" popular welfare reforms instituted in the 1990s, transforming the public assistance program into a giveaway for the impoverished.

    The presumptive Republican nominee hailed the welfare reforms achieved by President Bill Clinton and congressional Republicans, which conditioned receiving welfare on seeking work, as a bipartisan triumph of the 1990s. In the same breath, he accused Obama of trying to "reverse that accomplishment by taking the work requirement out of welfare."

    It's a charge that was echoed in a new television ad released Tuesday by the Romney campaign, as well as a conference call held this morning by senior advisers.

    Jessica Rinaldi / Reuters

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney shakes hands with workers after a campaign event at Acme Industries in Elk Grove Village, Illinois August 7.

    "By violating this fundamental piece of the block grant, you've now essentially made this into a blank check from the federal government to the states, with no work requirement at all," said Jonathan Burks, the Romney campaign's deputy policy director.

    The TV ad charges that under this plan, proved by this memo, “you wouldn’t have to work and wouldn’t have to train for a job. They just send you your welfare check.”

    The charge is based on a July 12 memo issued by the Department of Health and Human Services, in which HHS said it would consider approving waivers for states seeking more flexibility in implementing welfare reform, officially known as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, or TANF.

    The memo prompted outrage from many congressional Republicans, who have charged the Obama administration is changing a requirement of a law passed by Congress in an executive branch power grab.

    But does the memo do what the Romney campaign charges -- that it guts welfare reform, gets rid of work requirements entirely, and would “just send you your welfare check”?

    Not exactly. The memo states, for instance, that HHS “will only consider approving waivers relating to the work participation requirements that make changes intended to lead to more effective means of meeting the work goals of TANF."

    In other words, a state would have to offer an alternative program similar to the work requirements first put into place by the 1990s welfare reform law in order to receive the waiver.

    The Romney campaign has homed in only on the fact that the work requirement could be waived by the government; they haven't spoken to the alternatives governors might offer as a replacement.

    "If you look at the memorandum issued by the Department of Health and Human Services, one of the items in which they express their willingness to issue waivers is -- a project that demonstrates attainment of superior employment outcomes in lieu of participation rate requirements," Burks said Tuesday. "In other words, that's exactly the core of the welfare work requirement, is states reach the participation rate threshold. So they express their willingness to waive the core requirement, which is exactly what we're talking about here today."

    At the root of these charges is an effort to paint Obama as especially liberal, even more than Clinton, whose championing of the original legislation was seen as a component of his centrist tone.

    "Through this action, President Obama apparently believes that Bill Clinton was way too conservative, and that the Obama administration is and should be far, far to the left of the Clinton administration," Texas Republican Senate candidate Ted Cruz said on the Romney call.

    Moreover, attacking welfare is a tried-and-tested strategy for Republicans. It's an issue they believe plays well in key swing states among middle- and working-class voters, whom the Romney campaign needs to win in November, and who might be more susceptible to an argument painting welfare recipients, essentially, as freeloaders.

    The Obama campaign responded by noting that some governors -- Republicans, no less -- had requested this kind of greater flexibility granted by the HHS.

    “The Obama administration, working with the Republican governors of states like Nevada and Utah, is giving states additional flexibility only if they move more people from welfare to work – not fewer," said spokeswoman Lis Smith, adding that Romney, as governor, "petitioned the federal government for waivers that would have let people stay on welfare for an indefinite period, ending welfare reform as we know it."

    The Romney campaign's Burks responded on the conference call by nothing that while Romney had sought flexibility in some areas, he'd never sought a waiver of the core work requirement.

    But nuance often is the first casualty of a campaign as hard-fought and close as this one.

    Case-in-point? The administration's HHS memo certainly does not make it so the federal government will now “just send you your welfare check," as the Romney campaign's television ad asserts.

  • Romney launches welfare attack on Obama

     

    ELK GROVE VILLAGE, IL -- Mitt Romney's campaign opened a new front in its battle to define President Obama as far to the left of even Democrats like Bill Clinton, with the presumptive GOP nominee accusing the president of trying to "reverse" welfare reform.

    The GOP contender, whose campaign resurfaced this issue of welfare reform this morning with a new television ad and a conference call, cast the Clinton era welfare reform effort, which tied welfare payments to work, a "great accomplishment," and praised the value of a job as strengthening the American economy and American people.

    In the next breath, he called out President Obama for what he claimed was an attempt to gut the work requirement.

    "I hope you understand that President Obama in just the last few days has tried to reverse that accomplishment by taking the work requirement out of welfare," Romney told a crowd gathered on a factory floor here. "That is wrong. If I’m president, I’ll put work back in welfare.”

    The Romney campaign is charging that a waiver issued by the Department of Health and Human Services would exempt states from the work requirements contained in the law; the memo at issue stipulates that a waiver only be granted if the state offers a substitute that achieves the same work goals.

    Romney also defended his own work on welfare reform as Governor of Massachusetts, already a target for Democrats.

    "We must include more work in welfare. When I was governor of my state, I fought time and again. My legislature passed a bill removing the work requirements at the level we’d had in the past. I vetoed that and then fought time and again to get more work requirements, to raise the work requirements in my state, not because I don’t think people who need help should be helped," Romney said. "I very much agree that those who are seriously disabled or are unable to work need to have help of the rest of us, but those who can work ought to have the opportunity for a good job, and if they’re getting state assistance, they ought to have the requirement for a good job. We will end a culture dependency and restore a culture of good, hard work.”

    In his first public appearance since Sunday's shooting at a Sikh temple in Wisconsin, Romney also set politics aside at the top of his remarks to call for a moment of silence for the victims.

    "I'd like to have a moment of silence to honor the people who lost their lives in Wisconsin in that tragic, tragic shooting at the Sikh temple. The tragedy is even more profound because the Sikh religion and the Sikh people are such peaceful, loving individuals," Romney said. "And I think its also more tragic because the shooter was apparently someone who was motivated by hate. Hate based on race. Hate based on religion. For all those reasons, this is something that touches us very deeply."

  • First Thoughts: McCaskill to get her challenger

    McCaskill to find out her GOP challenger in today’s Missouri SEN primary… Another look at the battle for Senate control… Romney camp comes out swinging (on topics not related to the economy)… Adding important context to the Romney camp’s new welfare TV ad… Obama on “Romney Hood”… Priorities USA Action is up with its latest TV ad… And Romney stumps in Illinois and Iowa.

    Sid Hastings / AP

    Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate, John Brunner, left, Sarah Steelman, center, and Todd Akin are introduced at the start of a debate at Washington University in St. Louis, Friday, July 6, 2012.

    *** McCaskill to get her challenger: It’s primary day in Missouri, where Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) will find out which Republican is challenging her in the fall -- U.S. Rep. Todd Akin, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, or businessman John Brunner. Make no mistake: McCaskill is vulnerable, and the GOP has a real chance of winning this seat (and possibly the majority) in the Senate. McCaskill is a fascinating story. Perhaps no one was a more important early endorser of Obama than she was, and probably no Senate Democrat up for re-election this year is paying a bigger price for her association with the president. But some of her problems also were self-inflicted (think of those charter jets), and remember that she barely won during the Democratic wave of 2006. What’s more, Missouri isn’t going to be a battleground state in the presidential election, meaning that the Obama machine won’t put in the same kind of resources in the Show Me State than it will in Ohio or Florida (which will benefit two other sitting Dem senators, Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson).

    *** And the battle for Senate control: If Republicans get their best candidate in Missouri (the C.W. is that Akin isn’t as strong of a general-election candidate than Brunner or Steelman) and in Wisconsin next week (Tommy Thompson and Eric Hovde are viewed as stronger than Mark Neumann) then they have a real shot at winning control of the U.S. Senate. Here’s the path: Win Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri and Wisconsin, and lose only Maine. That would net Republicans four seats, which is enough to take control of the Senate even if Obama wins re-election. But if Republicans lose another seat -- say Elizabeth Warren defeating Scott Brown in Massachusetts -- then the GOP would have to win one more Senate contest, probably either in Virginia, Florida, or New Mexico. But if Obama loses, then Republicans would need to net just three seats, which is a very doable feat.

    *** Other primaries to watch: There are other primaries in Missouri today. Businessman Dave Spence is expected to win his GOP gubernatorial primary to challenge incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon (D) in November. And there’s a competitive member-vs.-member House primary, too -- with Rep. William Lacy Clay (D) battling Rep. Russ Carnahan (D). Meanwhile, in Washington state, we have the gubernatorial primaries in the race to replace retiring Gov. Christine Gregoire (D). Washington holds free-for-all primaries where the Top 2 finishers advance, and those Top 2 are expected to be Rob McKenna (R) and Jay Inslee (D). Polls close in Missouri at 8:00 pm ET, and they close at 11:00 pm ET in Washington. It’s also primary day in Kansas and Michigan.

    *** Romney camp comes out swinging (on topics not related to the economy): Turning to the presidential contest… Over the past few weeks now, the Obama campaign has been driving the daily news cycle -- consider the back-and-forth over that Tax Policy Center report and Romney’s tax returns. In response, we’ve now seen the Romney campaign drop its singular focus on the economy to hit Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina (over his emails at the White House) and Obama White House adviser David Plouffe (over his paid speech to a firm with ties to Iran), and to whack the Obama campaign over military voters in Ohio. And now, the Romney camp is up with a TV ad accusing the Obama administration of gutting welfare reform; it’s also holding a conference call on this topic at 11:15 am ET. These new attacks might seem scattershot to some, maybe to buy time before this month’s VP pick. But they also seem like an attempt to try to knock the Obama campaign off message and drive the daily news cycle instead of being on the receiving end.

    For the third straight month, Mitt Romney's campaign has raised more money than President Obama's. Meantime, as the president flew to a fund-raiser in Connecticut last night, there was some unplanned drama when fighter jets had to intercept a pair of small planes.

    *** Some important context: But here’s some important context on this new Romney TV ad. The change in the welfare law Team Romney is attacking was actually designed to give states more flexibility -- something for which Republican often want from the federal government argue. Reuters: “The directive from the Health and Human Services Department allows states to pursue a waiver from the work requirement of the welfare law in order to test alternative strategies that would help needy families find jobs. The aim is to give states some flexibility in how they carry out the welfare law as some state governors have advocated, rather than sticking to a rigid formula.” The Huffington Post also reports that Romney, when he was Massachusetts governor in 2005, actually advocated for this kind of flexibility with welfare.

    *** Obama: “It’s like Robin Hood in reverse. It’s Romney Hood”: Speaking of attacks to drive the news cycle, don’t miss what Obama said at one of his fundraisers in Connecticut last night, per NBC’s Ali Weinberg. "He'd ask the middle class to pay more taxes so that he could give another $250,000 tax cut to people making more than $3 million a year. It's like Robin Hood in Reverse. It's Romney Hood!" Obama was referring to the recent study by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, which found that Romney’s push for additional tax cuts -- while keeping these tax cuts revenue-neutral -- would result in tax increases on the middle class. Watch this issue; this is potentially a very powerful one come the fall. And if so, why isn’t the Romney camp trying to do more to parry it?

    *** Priorities’ latest TV ad: Also today, the pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action has a new TV ad hitting Romney’s past work at Bain Capital.

    *** On the trail: Romney holds an event in Elk Grove Village, IL at 11:40 am ET and then raises money in Chicago before hitting another fundraiser in Des Moines, IA… And Obama visits two fundraisers in Washington, DC.

    Countdown to GOP convention: 20 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 27 days
    Countdown to 1st presidential debate: 57 days
    Countdown to VP debate: 65 days
    Countdown to 2nd presidential debate: 70 days
    Countdown to 3rd presidential debate: 76 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 91 days

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  • 2012: Romney gets hammered on tax plan

    The Tampa Bay Times’ editorial board rips Romney’s tax plan, based on the Tax Policy Center’s analysis: “The numbers speak volumes about the Romney campaign's priorities. While President Barack Obama is proposing that taxes rise on the wealthiest Americans by letting the Bush tax cuts lapse only for those with incomes of $250,000 or more, Romney would flip that formula and give further breaks to the nation's millionaires, people who are already paying the lowest effective tax rate in 60 years.”

    And: “If he has a dispute with the results, he needs to provide specifics on just how he will provide massive tax relief to those at the top without adding to the tax burdens of average people.”

    Here’s a tough ad, which claims that Romney “pay less, you pay more,” that his plan would raise taxes on all but the rich, and the Washington Post’s fact checker calls it accurate: “This ad is tough, but we cannot fault the accuracy of its key points. To some extent, the Romney campaign has been hoist with its own petard by refusing to provide sufficient detail that shows how the numbers add up in Romney’s tax and budget plans. So we are left with the judgment of a respected and independent third party. We hold campaign ads to a high standard, particularly attack ads. If Romney releases the missing details, and a new analysis finds that Romney can meet the stated goals of his tax plan, then we can certainly revisit this analysis. But, until then, for the first time in this frequently nasty campaign, we award a rare Geppetto Checkmark for a campaign ad.”

    Priorities USA is up with an ad hitting Romney for the closing of a steel plant that led to a man and his family not being able to afford health insurance, and the man’s wife died of cancer.

    The New York Times looks at the swing vote of unmarried women: “Single women are one of the country’s fastest-growing demographic groups — there are 1.8 million more now than just two years ago. They make up a quarter of the voting-age population nationally, and even more in several swing states, including Nevada. And though they lean Democratic — in a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, single women favored Mr. Obama over his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, by 29 points — they are also fickle about casting their ballots, preoccupied with making ends meet and alienated from a political system they say is increasingly deaf to their concerns. But the Obama campaign, needing their support to offset traditional Republican strength among married women, is lavishing attention on them.”

    Gallup says Obama’s getting fewer 2008 voters than Romney is from the Republican side. Well, yeah. That’s why this is a close election. 2008 was an electoral landslide.

  • Romney: New welfare attack

    “U.S. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will launch a new attack against President Barack Obama on Tuesday, taking aim at the Democrat's plan to waive parts of a landmark welfare-to-work law,” Reuters notes.

    The ad claims: “On July 12, President Obama quietly announced a plan to gut welfare reform by dropping work requirements. Under Obama’s plan, you wouldn’t have to work and wouldn’t have to train for a job. They just send you your welfare check. And welfare to work just goes back to being plain old welfare.”

    But this breezy claim is misleading. The change Romney is attacking was actually designed to give states more flexibility – something for which Republican often argue. By the way, it’s also another attack that began with House Republicans.

    Reuters has the context: “The directive from the Health and Human Services Department allows states to pursue a waiver from the work requirement of the welfare law in order to test alternative strategies that would help needy families find jobs. The aim is to give states some flexibility in how they carry out the welfare law as some state governors have advocated, rather than sticking to a rigid formula. But the health department's decision has generated strong opposition from Republicans. In the House, 76 Republicans complained in a letter to Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, who sought to assure them that states will have to move at least 20 percent more people from welfare to work. But in a bare-knuckled presidential campaign, such nuances are quickly cast aside, and Romney is going full throttle after Obama on the issue.”

    The Washington Post: “The Obama campaign responded by noting that in 2005, then-Massachusetts governor Romney and most other Republican governors requested state waivers similar to those the Obama administration began allowing with the Department of Health and Human Services’ July 12 announcement.”

    GOP 12 notes that this is the fourth time that Romney or his allies have used Bill Clinton in an ad.

    That’s not the only misleading Romney ad. The Washington Post’s fact checker: While there may have been good political reasons for Obama to make a trip to Jerusalem, the basic frame of the ad is misleading, especially the claim that he’s traveled all through the Middle East at the expense of a visit to Israel. The Romney ad also misleadingly suggests Obama’s failure to visit Israel is unusual since it asks, ‘Who shares your values?’” In fact, just four of the last 11 presidents have traveled to Israel. George W. Bush didn’t do it until he was in his eighth year as president and his father, George H.W. Bush, never visited.

    “Romney's July [money] advantage was the biggest yet, leading to increasingly urgent fundraising appeals from Obama and the Democrats,” USA Today writes. “One e-mail to supporters from Obama's campaign chief operating officer, Ann Marie Habershaw, used the subject line, ‘This is why I keep asking.’”

    Harry Reid to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, per Politcal Wire: "The whole controversy would end very quickly if he would just release his income tax returns just like everybody else that runs for president."

    (The White House, by the way, distanced itself yesterday fro Reid’s comments, per NBC’s Kristen Welker.)

    The RNC announced a few more speakers, NBC’s Garrett Haake reports, including: Gov. Mary Fallin, Sen. Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Jeb Bush.

    Hey, Romney campaign… Reagan’s campaign manager says this isn’t 1980.

    Reince Priebus on FOX on the Reid attacks, per GOP 12: "We are not going to get pushed around by these baseless accusations that the president's behind. I mean, the president is behind this. All he has to do is say to Harry Reid, 'You know what, cut this garbage out. This is not what I'm about. This is not what I campaigned on in 2008'. The problem is this president isn't who he said he was, and all of this is going to come unraveled."

    And get this… Political Wire: “RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said he hopes Sarah Palin will speak at the Republican convention in Tampa, Politico reports. Said Priebus: ‘I think a lot of her and hope that she does speak.’ Palin told the Tampa Bay Times that she'd ‘have an announcement in a couple of days’ regarding the convention, though no announcement came.”

    Priebus has previously touted Palin’s role in American politics and how closely he was able to work with her as chairman of the Wisconsin state GOP.

    Cheney backs off Palin: “Former vice president Dick Cheney backed off criticism of 2008 veep nominee Sarah Palin today, saying her selection was "a mistake" because of the process, not her as an individual. ‘It wasn't aimed so much at Gov. Palin as it was against the basic process that (GOP nominee John) McCain used,’ Cheney told Fox News talk show host Sean Hannity,” per USA Today.

  • Obama: 'Romney Hood'

    “President Obama says that -- unlike the Old English hero who stole from the rich and gave to the poor -- Mitt Romney wants to do the opposite. ‘It's like Robin Hood in reverse,’ Obama told supporters last night in Connecticut. ‘It's Romney Hood,’” per USA Today.

    First Lady Michelle Obama will be on Leno Aug. 13.

    A movie about the bin Laden raid and President Obama isn’t even mentioned in it?

  • Veepstakes: Watch Wikipedia

    Watch Wikipedia for clues? Political Wire citing Tech President: "Sarah Palin's Wikipedia page was updated at least 68 times the day before John McCain announced her selection, with another 54 changes made in the five previous days previous. Tim Pawlenty, another leading contender for McCain's favor, had 54 edits on August 28th, with just 12 in the five previous days. By contrast, the other likely picks -- Romney, Kay Bailey Hutchison -- saw far fewer changes. The same burst of last-minute editing appeared on Joe Biden's Wikipedia page, Terry Gudaitis of Cyveillance."

    Going a little too far? “Even Mitt Romney's shopping cart becomes a clue when trying to solve the political world's biggest mystery,” the AP writes. “The Republican presidential candidate stopped by a supermarket near his New Hampshire vacation home to buy cases of water, Wild Cherry Pepsi and Greek yogurt. ‘I got some folks coming over today,’ Romney told reporters Monday as he loaded groceries into a black Suburban SUV. Would those guests include potential running mates? Romney's only response was laughter. He has repeatedly shrugged off questions about his vice presidential selection. But as the clock winds down before this month's Republican National Convention, political observers are grasping at the slightest hint. Once his shopping list became public, people instantly began speculating on Twitter -- half-jokingly -- about the yogurt and soda preferences of those on the vice presidential short list. Some reporters scrambled to study the travel schedules of potential contenders while others checked on how much longer Romney's wife, Ann, would spend with the family horse at the London Olympics. Romney isn't likely to make his decision public without her at his side.”

  • White House on Harry Reid: He speaks for himself

    The White House has distanced itself from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's comments that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney hasn't paid taxes in a decade. NBC's Kristen Welker reports.

    The White House has distanced itself from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s comments that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney hasn’t paid taxes in a decade.

  • Romney bus tour fuels VP speculation

     

    WASHINGTON and WOLFEBORO, N.H. -- The veepstakes speculation just got more fuel.

    The Romney campaign today officially announced its swing-state bus tour beginning Saturday. It will start in Virginia; then head to North Carolina Sunday, the day the Olympics conclude; Florida Monday, Aug. 13; and end in Ohio Tuesday, Aug. 14.

    Potential vice-presidential picks will be making appearances.

    NBC's Alex Moe reports that Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA) will join Romney on the first leg of the tour in Virginia. 

    NBC's Andrew Rafferty reports that Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), a veep front runner, will join Romney in Ohio.

    *** UPDATE *** Marco Rubio will join Romney on part of the Florida leg of the bus tour.

    Today, Romney huddled with top aides, including chief strategist Stu Stevens, and Beth Myers, head of the VP search process, for more than two hours at his lakeside home on Monday. Also present -- senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom and Policy Director Lanhee Chen.

    One aide described the meeting as a strategy session, and denied that the vice-presidential selection was discussed.

    It's possible a Romney vice-presidential pick is made on the bus tour, but it's also possible that it is designed to create buzz and excitement around the campaign and a VP selection is announced after it.

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