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  • Republican convention will feature tribute to Ron Paul

     

    The Republican National Convention will pay tribute to Texas Rep. Ron Paul during the second night of its convention. 

    Romney campaign adviser Russ Schriefer told reporters on Friday that the Romney campaign had assented to requests by Paul supporters to air a "short" film paying tribute to the retiring Texas congressman, who's attracted a devoted following in his two bids for the GOP presidential nomination. 

    The film — along with a speaking slot Monday for the congressman's son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul — is a nod toward the influence of Ron Paul, whose supporters, convention organizers have worried, might stir a small commotion during the roll call vote to nominate Romney. 

    Richard Clement / Reuters

    Rep. Ron Paul

    Schriefer confirmed that convention delegates would vote to formally nominate Romney for president on Monday; the presumptive Republican nominee would become the official Republican nominee on Thursday night, when he accepts the nomination. (At this point, Romney would be able to access and spend funds he has raised for use in the general election campaign.)

    Top Talkers: The Cycle host joins the Morning Joe panel to talk about the upcoming speeches at the Republican National Convention and to explain why Mitt Romney "needs a moment where he looks presidential"  to excite the base and have them rally around him. The panel also discusses the possibility of Romney receiving the nomination early.

    Television networks have signaled that they will only broadcast three nights of coverage, raising the possibility that Monday's festivities — including a planned speech by Ann Romney — would be missed by a national audience. Schriefer wouldn't shoot down rumors that the Romney campaign might move Ann Romney's speech if the networks don't extend their coverage plans.

    "I'm optimistic that the right thing will be done," he said. 

    Other features of the convention include plans to feature fellow members of Romney's Mormon church, and 15 Olympians — meant to highlight Romney's widely acclaimed tenure as head of the Salt Lake City Olympics. Three Olympians will speak, most prominently Mike Eruzione, the captain of the 1980 U.S. "Miracle on Ice" Olympic hockey team. 

    Organizers are pushing ahead with planning despite warnings of a major storm turning toward Tampa, the site of the convention. Schriefer boasted in particular of the modern backdrop onstage of speakers, which he described as a "Frank Lloyd Wright-inspired piece of architecture."

  • First Thoughts: Romney's challenging summer (so far)

    Romney has had a challenging summer so far – as he heads into next week’s convention… And yet he remains well within striking distance of Obama… All eyes on Isaac with three days before the convention… Romney highlights his tenure at Bain Capital in WSJ op-ed… Romney and Ryan stump in Michigan at noon ET… And Romney and the empathy gap.

    *** Romney’s challenging summer (so far): Having a hurricane potentially land on your convention sort of sums up what has been a rough summer for Mitt Romney. It began in June, when the presumptive GOP presidential nominee found himself on the defensive dealing with President Obama's immigration announcement and then the SCOTUS decision upholding the federal health-care law. Then came the attacks on Bain Capital, the outsourcing charges, and the questions over the tax returns. The supposedly low-risk overseas trip to Europe and Israel turned into negative headlines. And the week before the GOP convention, the story dominating the political headlines has been about Todd Akin, abortion, and rape. That said, there have been bright spots for the campaign over the past two months: the June jobs report, the fundraising success, and the Paul Ryan pick, which has moved the needle in some battleground states. But for the most part this summer, Romney has been on the defensive -- and he's behind, but only by the narrowest of margins.

    The Daily Rundown's Luke Russert talks about the hectic past two months for Mitt Romney and why he needs to place the focus back on the economy during the Republican National Convention.

    *** And yet he remains well within striking distance: Right before this month began, we wrote that it was important for Romney to have a successful August; if you’re the challenger, August is typically the month when you want to start pulling ahead. And the month has been set up for Romney to make his move -- with the VP pick and the convention that begins next week. But with one event down (the VP pick) and one to go (the convention), the GOP ticket hasn’t pulled ahead, either nationally or on the map. And yet… Romney remains in the game. We’ll repeat what NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) told us earlier this week as our poll showed Obama with a 48%-44% advantage: “When a guy gets stuck at 48%, it doesn’t mean they are out of the clear. It means they are in an incredibly competitive campaign.” What’s more, a top Romney adviser tells First Read that the race has been stable over the past couple of months, but that polling shows Romney -- after the Ryan pick and the welfare attacks on Obama -- has narrowed the gap with the president. So as we head into this fall's baseball pennant races, a baseball analogy might be appropriate: Romney's a couple games back heading into his convention next week. 

    Meet the Press moderator David Gregory explains why the RNC will give Mitt Romney a chance to change voters' personal opinions of him. Gregory says Romney must "get out ahead of his own image, define himself and take control." The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson joins the conversation about the RNC and says it will be interesting to see if the GOP can keep its focus.

    *** All eyes on Isaac: Speaking of the convention, all eyes remain fixed on Isaac. The AP: “Tropical Storm Isaac churned toward the Dominican Republic and Haiti late Thursday, although forecasters said it now appeared less likely to become a hurricane while in the Caribbean. It still posed a potential threat to take a shot at Florida as a hurricane just as the Republicans gather for their national convention.” But at publication time, there was some hope that Isaac could move just west of Tampa. As the Washington Post and New York Times have reported, the roll call formally nominating Romney will take place on Monday instead of the usual Wednesday. (Convention planners say this Monday roll call was announced had been previously announced..) The New York Times’ Zeleny reports: “It is a change in the script from previous conventions, where the formal nomination usually takes place on the second to last night of the convention. It is a formality, and Mr. Romney will still deliver his acceptance speech on Thursday evening, but the change is significant and an effort to keep the convention focused tightly on Mr. Romney… Russ Schriefer, a top strategist for the Romney campaign who is overseeing convention planning, said the roll call vote will be timed for Mr. Romney to formally clinch the nomination when the network news programs begin their broadcasts on Monday evening.”

    Evan Vucci / AP

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign event at Watson Truck and Supply Aug. 23 in Hobbs, N.M.

    *** Romney highlights Bain record: Three days before the convention begins -- and before Romney officially becomes the nominee -- the former Massachusetts governor pens an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal highlighting his business tenure at Bain Capital, which has become a point of contention in this campaign. Citing the successes at Bain Capital, Romney writes, “The lessons I learned over my 15 years at Bain Capital were valuable in helping me turn around the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. They also helped me as governor of Massachusetts to turn a budget deficit into a surplus and reduce our unemployment rate to 4.7%. The lessons from that time would help me as president to fix our economy, create jobs and get things done in Washington.” But the Obama campaign takes issue with the op-ed, arguing that it’s an “attempt at convention re-invention” and that Romney is cherry-picking the Bain record. “[W]e already know that Mitt Romney’s tenure as a corporate buyout specialist was not about creating jobs, it was about creating profits for himself and his investors, no matter the cost to workers, companies, or communities,” an Obama spokesman emails. 

    *** Romney returns to Michigan: At noon ET, Romney and Ryan hold a joint rally in Commerce, MI. The Detroit News reported earlier this week that this is Romney’s first visit to Michigan in two months -- and the event takes place in Oakland County, a swing part of the state that hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential contest since 1988. Michigan, which is Lean Democrat on NBC’s battleground map, is Romney’s native state. And the visit will draw attention to Romney’s opposition to the auto bailout, as well as Ryan’s vote in favor of it in Dec. 2008.

    *** Romney and the empathy gap: As our new NBC/WSJ poll made pretty clear, Romney faces an empathy gap in this election, trailing Obama by 22 points (52%-30%) on which candidate is viewed as better caring about average people. Earlier this week, Romney may have demonstrated this disadvantage when he was talking about student loans and education. “You don't max out their credit card if you will by giving them something that they're having to pay for down the road plus interest. What you do is you make sure that we do not pass on trillions of dollars in debts to the next generation. We live within our means and give them the kind of economic start they deserve." And that followed what a the candidate told a high-school senior in March about rising college costs. “The best thing I can do for you is to tell you to shop around and compare tuition in different places.” But here’s the thing:  60 percent of American students, 12 million a year or so, turn to student loans -- because they can’t afford the price of college. When Romney talks about students maxing “out their credit card” or needing to “shop around,” Romney is ignoring that many deserving and high-achieving students simply can’t afford current costs for college.

    *** And be sure to tune in (or set your DVRs): Chuck Todd’s documentary “Mitt Romney: The Making of a Candidate” airs tonight at 10:00 pm ET on MSNBC.

    Countdown to GOP convention: 3 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 10 days
    Countdown to 1st presidential debate: 40 days
    Countdown to VP debate: 48 days
    Countdown to 2nd presidential debate: 53 days
    Countdown to 3rd presidential debate: 59 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 74 days

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  • Programming notes

    *** Friday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up (with guest host Luke Russert):.Former Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and former Bush administration spokesman Tony Fratto on the multifaceted fiscal fight that could decide the election… Latest on Tropical Storm Isaac’s path with MSNBC meteorologist Bill Karins and NBC’s Mark Potter in Haiti… A preview of tonight’s 10:00 pm ET premiere of “Mitt Romney: The Making of a Candidate” on msnbc… More 2012 news with The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin, The Grio’s Perry Bacon and Daniella Gibbs Leger of the Center for American Progress.

    *** Friday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews the Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus, CQ-Roll Call editor David Hawking, former Biden economic adviser Jared Bernstein, former Gingrich Chief of Staff Rich Galen, union political consultant Chuck Rocha, Ohio Democratic Party Chair Chris Redfern, and sports anchor Rob Simmelkjaer.

    *** Friday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’S Thomas Roberts talks with MSNBC’S Melissa Harris Perry who will Sound Off on the GOP & the abortion debate.  “The Cycle” Hosts S.E. Cupp, Krystal Ball, Toure and Steve Kornacki will discuss the GOP’s very bad week.  Kristen Kukowski of the RNC discusses the Republican’s plans to move full steam ahead with the GOP Convention.  Power Panelists include: TheGrio.com’s Joy-Ann Reid, MSNBC Contributor Jimmy Williams and conservative talk show host Armstrong Williams.

    *** Friday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, Georgetown University professor Michael Eric Dyson, the Wall Street Journal’s Carol Lee, BuzzFeed Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith, ProPublica’s Kim Barker, and MSNBC Host Chris Hayes.

    *** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki, RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer, Democratic strategist Margie Omero, the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, and NBC’s Peter Alexander and Ron Mott join us from the Romney campaign trail.

    *** Friday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Dem strategist Mo Elleithee, RealCleaPolitics Erin McPike, and Jonathan Alter.

    *** Saturday’s and Sunday’s “Weekends with Alex Witt”: As part of her weekly “Office Politics” segment, MSNBC’s Alex Witt is doing a “best of” --  featuring MSNBC’s Martin Bashir, Chris Hayes, Melissa Harris-Parry, NBCLatino’s Chris Pena and Bravo’s Andy Cohen. 

    *** Saturday’s and Sunday’s “Melissa Harris Perry”: On Saturday, MSNBC’s Melissa Harris Perry interviews (among others) Buddy Roemer, Jonathan Capehart, and Alicia Menendez. And on Sunday, she interviews Roemer, Karen Finney, and Joe Watkins.

  • 2012: Likeability vs. the economy

    Obama is seen as more likable than Romney in another poll. USA Today/Gallup finds 54% say Obama’s likeable, while just 31% say so of Romney. But Romney wins on who’s better to handle the economy by a 52-43% margin.

    A FOX likely voter poll has Romney in the lead, 45-44%.

    James Fallows on the importance of the debates: "This year's exchanges have the potential to be different, and more dramatic. Romney is very strong as a debater but has also shown two repeated weaknesses: a thin command of policy details, and an awkwardness when taken by surprise." (h/t: Political Wire.)

  • Romney: The calm before the storm?

    “For four days (the threat of Tropical Storm Isaac notwithstanding) Romney and the Republicans hope to repair damage from months of negative TV attacks, move on from this week's furor over ‘legitimate rape’ and abortion, find footing in the economic issues that they'd prefer to talk about and leave with a head of steam that helps propel them through the campaign's final nine weeks,” USA Today’s Page writes, adding, “the former Massachusetts governor faces unfinished business in convincing Americans he's a likable guy who cares about their lives, and he needs to mend fences with critical swing groups, among them some women and Latino voters.”

    “Creating a potential headache for his campaign, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said big businesses in the U.S. were ‘doing fine’ in part because they get advantages from offshore tax havens,” the Boston Globe writes. “His comments echoed similar assertions about the state of big business by President Barack Obama which Romney has criticized. They’re also a reminder that the GOP candidate has kept some of his personal fortune in low tax foreign accounts.”

    Here’s what Romney said at a fundraiser yesterday: “Big business is doing fine in many places. They get the loans they need, they can deal with all the regulation. They know how to find ways to get through the tax code, save money by putting various things in the places where there are low tax havens around the world for their businesses.”

    The Globe: “Romney didn’t mention Thursday that he has kept some of his personal money in offshore tax havens, including accounts in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands.”

     Flashback: “During Romney’s tenure as a Marriott director, the company repeatedly utilized complex tax-avoidance maneuvers, prompting at least two tangles with the Internal Revenue Service, records show. In 1994, while he headed the audit committee, Marriott used a tax shelter known to attorneys by its nickname: ‘Son of BOSS,’” Bloomberg reported earlier this year. It added: “Romney’s business experience is the cornerstone of his presidential campaign. Opponents have focused on his leadership of the investment company Bain Capital LLC and his personal income tax rate of 13.9 percent. As a Marriott director, his responsibilities included oversight over the tax planning conducted by management, according to a company statement. Romney’s position as chairman of the board’s audit committee for six years gave him and the other members responsibility to review financial reporting, according to Marriott’s annual proxy filings.”

     The New York Times: “Hundreds of pages of confidential internal documents from the private equity firm Bain Capital published online Thursday provided new details on investments held by the Romney family’s trusts, as well as aggressive strategies that Bain appears to have used to minimize its investors’ and partners’ tax liabilities... The documents, obtained and published by Gawker.com, do not specify the stakes held in the funds by the Romney family trusts or by other investors. But they highlight the range and complexity of Mr. Romney’s investments at a time when those very qualities have been the subject of the Obama campaign’s main attacks against him, including demands that Mr. Romney release his tax returns to clear up any suggestion that he might be benefiting financially from legal loopholes or tax shelters.”

    “Mitt Romney says in a new interview that one of the reasons he's distressed about disclosing his tax returns is that everyone sees how much money he and his wife, Ann, have donated to his Mormon church, and that's a number he wants to keep private,” USA Today says. Romney tells Parade magazine: "Our church doesn't publish how much people have given. This is done entirely privately. One of the downsides of releasing one's financial information is that this is now all public, but we had never intended our contributions to be known. It's a very personal thing between ourselves and our commitment to our God and to our church."

    “Storm or no storm, Mitt Romney will be nominated for president next week,” the Boston Globe writes. “With Tropical Storm Isaac approaching South Florida and threatening carefully laid plans for the Republican National Convention in Tampa, a party spokesman said Thursday that the convention’s primary goal will be accomplished, no matter what.”

    “Mitt Romney’s success in raising hundreds of millions of dollars in the costliest presidential race ever can be traced in part to a secretive data-mining project that sifts through Americans’ personal information — including their purchasing history and church attendance — to identify new and likely, wealthy donors, The Associated Press has learned. For the data-mining project, the Republican candidate has quietly employed since at least June a little-known but successful analytics firm that previously performed marketing work for a colleague tied to Bain & Co., the management-consulting firm that Romney once led. … The effort by Romney appears to be the first example of a political campaign using such extensive data analysis.”

    “Knock on doors in this Raleigh suburb and identify residents opposed to President Obama's health care law and his stewardship of the economy — all part of an ambitious voter-outreach campaign by Americans for Prosperity, a non-profit backed by billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch that is emerging as one of biggest outside forces of the 2012 election,” USA Today writes. “The Kochs, who own an oil, chemical and textile conglomerate that Forbes magazine pegs as the nation's second-largest private company, have become the country's leading figures of libertarian activism. The Koch duo (pronounced "coke") has injected millions into an array of foundations, think tanks and political groups to spread their small-government, anti-regulation philosophy, which their critics argue matches their economic interests.”

  • Obama: The young-voter push

    “While the GOP prepares to officially embrace Mitt Romney as its presidential nominee next week, President Obama is focusing his attention on courting young voters that the campaign believes can help push him over the top in three battleground states,” USA Today writes. “Obama will campaign at three college campuses on Tuesday and Wednesday — the second and third days of the Republican National Convention— as he looks to energize young voters in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia.”

    “A Texas county judge who declared the country could dissolve into “civil war” if President Barack Obama is re-elected this fall is facing backlash from Democrats who are demanding he resign,” the New York Daily News writes. “But Judge Tom Head, a Republican from Lubbock County, tried to squelch the flames Wednesday, saying his comments were taken out of context.”

  • Ryan vows to restore defense cuts

     

    FAYETTEVILLE, NC -- At a defense-industry roundtable meeting here -- which included two retired four-star generals -- Paul Ryan criticized the pending $500 billion in defense cuts that would go into effect in Jan. 2013.

    These cuts -- part of what’s known as “sequestration” -- were part of the Budget Control Act of 2011 that Congress passed to resolve last year's debt-ceiling standoff.

    “When those budget negotiations were going on, it was the president and his party leaders that insisted on this makeup, this formula,” Ryan said at the invite-only event near the Fort Bragg military base. “Defense spending is not half of all federal spending, but its half of the cuts approximately in the sequester. We disagreed with that then, and we disagree with it now.”

    And he vowed that a Romney-Ryan administration would restore the cuts. “That means if we have to do it in January, we will do it in January. That’s our position. We are crystal clear about it because it’s not just policy, it's personal,” Ryan said. “And it’s important that we send the right signals to our military families, to our economy, and to our adversaries. We are going to be strong, we are not going to back down, don’t question our resolve.”

    Yet Ryan voted for the Budget Control Act, which contained these same defense cuts as well as cuts to social programs. And the Obama campaign highlighted the contradiction.

    “Congressman Ryan voted for the agreement he criticized today, and he walked away from a balanced deficit-reduction plan last summer because he thought it would help the president’s re-election prospects,” Obama spokesman Danny Kanner said in a statement. “And Mitt Romney himself has said that he didn’t want Congress to act, despite looming defense cuts. Congressman Ryan and Mitt Romney should show some leadership to avoid these cuts instead of using our military budget to score a political point.”

    But Ryan spokesman Michael Steel, who was involved in the debt-ceiling debate while working for House Speaker John Boehner, replied: “What Chairman Ryan voted for was bipartisan deficit reduction. The president instead went AWOL on the campaign trail and the result is the devastating defense cuts that the president insisted on.”

    These automatic cuts to the defense industry (traditionally a top GOP constituency) and social programs (favored by Democrats) were supposed to serve as a "trigger" if Republicans and Democrats failed to come together to pass additional budget cuts under the legislation.

    Ryan's remarks here at the Partnership for Defense Innovation lab at the All-American Business Park were not the first time he President Obama over these looming defense cuts. But it was -- by far -- the harshest tone Ryan’s taken towards Obama on the subject yet.

    “The House has already passed, as well as the Senate, which has now been finally signed into law, bipartisan legislation saying put up or shut up. The president needs to show us how he plans on putting this in place if he is not going to help us pass legislation preventing it in the first place, so we’re now waiting for that answer,” Ryan said. “The president needs to show us how he plans on putting this in place if he is not going to help us pass legislation preventing it in the first place.”

    The legislation the Congressman was referring to is the Sequestration Transparency Act of 2012, which passed both chambers in July 2012 with bipartisan support demands that the president show how it would carry out the defense cuts.

    While Ryan has never served in the U.S. military, he made clear his close ties to the men and women who defend the nation on a daily basis.

    From inside his blue sport coat, Ryan pulled out a white card to show the roughly 100-person crowd. The card contained the names of fallen military personnel from Wisconsin.

    “I carry this card in my pocket. I've carried it with me for years. I don't really talk about this often,” he said. “It's the men and women who have lost their lives, the men who have lost their lives in Wisconsin. I've talked to these families, been at the funerals. It's the ultimate sacrifice.”

    And he transitioned to the defense cuts.

    “My childhood friend was a brigade commander here at the 82nd,” Ryan said. “He and I are very close and he would email me what was happening. The kind of sacrifices and the moral changes that occur when these kind of looming defense cuts occurred.”

  • Obama team: 'Hurricane Todd has already borne down on Tampa'

     

    Republicans needn't worry about Hurricane Issac bearing down on Tampa next week; "Hurricane Todd" Akin has already overshadowed the GOP's national convention, according to Obama campaign officials.

    Senior brass from the president's re-election team told reporters that the Florida-based convention had already been marred by Missouri Rep. Todd Akin's controversial suggestion earlier this week that "legitimate rape" rarely leads to pregnancy.

    "Hurricane Todd has already borne down on Tampa and the damage has been done.  And I don’t think that whether he stays on the ballot is that material," a senior campaign official told reporters gathered for a background briefing in Washington when asked whether they wanted to see Akin stay on the ballot in Missouri.

    Akin has weathered demands from senior Republicans, including Mitt Romney, to step aside from his race to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri. Though Akin has since apologized for his initial comments about rape, his political brand has become toxic, and has jeopardized not only Republicans' chances of winning back the Senate, but also the GOP's hopes of making inroads with women voters nationally.

    To that end, the Obama campaign has sought to tie Akin to vice presidential contender Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and the Romney campaign as a whole.

    “It is true that Paul Ryan is, on these issues, Todd Akin’s ideological twin,” an Obama campaign official said.

    The official went on to say: “This is the most radical ticket on these issues, and not just on women’s health and choice issues, but also on pay equity issues, things that are fundamental to women in this country. So, you know, we’ve earned the gender gap through the advocacy of the president ... but there’s no doubt that they have contributed to that through their positions and now through the appointment of Congressman Ryan."

    The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed that voters are far more confident in President Barack Obama’s ability to deal with issues of concern to women than Mitt Romney.

    The Obama campaign also continued its attempt to frame the Republican Party -- and specifically, the convention -- as only catering to a very conservative base.

    “They have no ability to expand the electorate.  They have looked at the Latino vote, the fastest growing voting block in this country and have decided to send out [Kansas Secretary of State Kris] Kobach to be their person at the convention.  They’re going to have [Sheriff] Joe Arpaio speak.  I mean, I may pay to livestream that.  That is going to be a great moment for the Obama campaign,” one campaign official joked.

    (Kobach is known for co-authoring Arizona’s controversial immigration bill that was partially upheld by the Supreme Court this year. Sheriff Arpaio is known for his outspoken opposition to illegal immigration, and is currently being sued by the Department of Justice for “discriminatory and otherwise unconstitutional law enforcement actions against Latinos.” He'll be speaking not on the convention stage, but to a small group of Western state Republicans.)

    As for the tradition of the opposing party keeping a low profile during the convention, the Obama campaign dismissed that notion.

    “It’s not unprecedented for principals to be out,” said one campaign official, noting that there are 75 more days until the election. "We’re going to use each and every one of those days and make the most of it."

    The Obama campaign's counterprogramming will include a presidential college tour in Iowa, Colorado and Virginia to highlight “the stark choice of going forward or moving back." Vice President Joe Biden will also be in Florida for two days next week, including a stop in Tampa on Monday.  

    “Again, 75 days left, Florida is a critical state. We’re not going to cede that state for four days just because they’re having their convention.”  The official continued, “I don’t think that they’re going to hold back during out convention.”

    Other topics addressed in the briefing:

    THE RYAN EFFECT:  The Obama campaign said the pick of Paul Ryan gave little or no bump to the Romney campaign. After pointing out that Sen. John McCain received a nine point bump after the picking Sarah Palin, a campaign official noted,” Ryan failed the Palin test here and he is a point underwater.”

    MEDICARE: “We’re happy to have this debate,” a campaign official said about Medicare while accusing Ryan of having concocted a "voucher plan" multiple times. The official said the debate over Medicare is not one Republicans are poised to win.

    BILL CLINTON AS A PRINCIPAL: Expect to see the former president out on the campaign trail stumping for the current president a great deal after the Democratic National Convention is over. On top of a prime speaking spot at the convention and a new commercial in support of Obama’s economic plan, Clinton is willing to give “a significant amount of time” stumping for the campaign.  Obama officials believe he is an “important messenger.”

    PERSUASION, REGISTRATION, TURN OUT:  Those three words are the story the Obama campaign wants to have told right now. They believe their registration ground game in swing states far surpasses Romney’s and that will make up for the amount of money being spent by outside political groups that support Romney’s campaign. “Our numbers are going to continue to outpace 2008 in both registration and voter contact,” one official said. While there is more they admit they need to get done on the ground, they showed confidence in their ability to register even more voters in the fall when colleges and universities start classes again. “You haven’t seen nothing yet, because kids are coming back to campuses.  What we learned in 2008 is you will see a major increase in the fall” in terms of voter registration said the same official.

  • Will the GOP's counter-offensive on Medicare be enough?

     

    Anticipating having to play defense this fall on the issue of Medicare, Republicans have been preparing a strategy for the upcoming elections: punch back.

    And this strategy undoubtedly assumed more urgency after Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan -- the author of a Republican budget that overhauls the government-run health insurance program for seniors -- as his running mate, which only elevated Medicare as a central issue in November.

    Govs. Bob McDonnell and Martin O'Malley discuss the differences between the 2012 presidential candidates' Medicare and economic plans with NBC's David Gregory.

    The Republican strategy entails accusing President Obama of cutting $716 billion from Medicare -- and then, taking it a step further, by linking those cuts to paying for the president's health care reform law.

    It was something, after all, that worked well during the 2010 midterm elections.

    "We were going to get hit on this," a National Republican Congressional Committee official told NBC News last week about the impending Medicare battles, "but we had a good side of the story to tell."


    But there are warning signs for the GOP that executing this plan might not be as easy as it seems.

    MSNBC's Thomas Roberts talks to Peter Brown, Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute, and a political power panel, including JP Freire of American Spectator, Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis, and Nia-Malika Henderson of the Washington Post, about new polling that shows swing state voters favoring President Barack Obama on issues related to Medicare.

    This week's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found, for instance, that twice as many voters (30 percent to 15 percent), when read a description of GOP-favored reforms to Medicare, said they were a bad idea.

    More worrying, though, might be the 51 percent of voters who said they had no opinion about the changes.

    That suggests that the issue of Medicare is practically begging for definition this fall on the campaign trail. The number of voters who by Election Day say they have no opinion about either side of the Medicare debate is almost sure to drop. And these voters, when they leave the sidelines, could end up shaping the outcome in November.

    Sara D. Davis / AP

    Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan refers to a list of deceased enlisted men during a campaign event at Partnership for Defense Innovation in Fayetteville, N.C.

    Central to the Democratic case is the Ryan plan. The House Budget Committee chairman authored two versions of a plan that would essentially provide future seniors with a voucher or premium support to purchase private insurance that they deem suitable. The second iteration of the Ryan plan allows these future seniors the option to use the voucher/premium support to also gain access to traditional Medicare.

    Democrats, led by President Barack Obama, charge this plan would end Medicare "as we know it," and argue that Romney and Ryan's joint plan would raise costs not just for future retirees, but current seniors, as well.

    It's an issue on which Democrats have traditionally held a political advantage, and their messaging on Ryan's budgets is credited with contributing to special election victories this cycle.

    But Republicans argue their twin-pronged counter-offensive has essentially brought the issue to a stalemate.

    Republican pollster David Winston argued in a memo Thursday for the American Action Network that this message tests about evenly with Democrats' charge that Republicans would end Medicare and turn it into a voucher system.

    "For Republicans to break even on these issues is a major shift and the survey shows that the issue Democrats have counted on as a reliable driver of voter support in past elections, is being overwhelmed by the economy," he wrote in the memo.

    That's why Romney has voiced this argument much more on the campaign trail than explain his own changes to the entitlement program. It's why the NRCC's first independent expenditure ad on the topic of Medicare made this same argument.

    The bottom line is that Republicans feel as though they can come out ahead on the strength of other issues, like the economy and the budget -- IF they can keep themselves even with Democrats on the issue of Medicare.

    But on that issue, Obama has an early advantage over Romney. Tying each candidate to their party's proposals, the NBC News/WSJ poll found that 50 percent preferred Obama's approach toward Medicare to the 34 percent who favor Romney's.

    And new polls released Thursday by Quinnipiac University, CBS News and the New York Times found that voters think Obama would do a better job on Medicare by 8, 10 and 9 percent in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin, respectively. (That margin grows in Obama's favor among voters who rate Medicare as "extremely important" in determining their vote.)

    Medicare appears to remain turf on which Democrats have an advantage, which explains why some Republicans -- while gratified by the party's efforts to defend the party on that issue -- have begun to push Romney and the rest of the GOP leadership to turn back toward the economy, an issue on which they have an advantage.

    "There’s a difference between inoculation and playing all-out defense. When Republicans are talking about Medicare, we’re not winning," one veteran GOP strategist said. "That’s not to say Republicans shouldn’t push back and be aggressive in doing so, but making Medicare a centerpiece in the election with less than 90 days to go is fraught with risk."

  • Romney debuts energy plan in oil-rich New Mexico

     

    HOBBS, NM -- Mitt Romney returned to oil country this morning to sell his new energy plan, setting a goal of reaching North American energy independence by 2020 in large part by removing regulatory barriers to fossil fuel development in the United States, and increasing cooperation with fellow energy-producers Canada and Mexico.

    "I will set a national goal of America and North America -- North American energy independence by 2020," Romney pledged. "That means we produce all the energy we use in North America. And there are a number of things I'm going to do to make that happen. It is achievable. This is not some pie in the sky kind of thing. This is a real, achievable objective."

    Evan Vucci / AP

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign event at Watson Truck and Supply Aug. 23.

    Romney's plan, laid out in a white paper and conference call with reporters last night, calls for streamlining the permit process for energy development on federal lands and offshore, for building infrastructure like the Keystone Pipeline, and supporting basic research on next-generation fuels like wind and solar, while abandoning subsidies and loan guarantees that, Romney argues, have tilted the marketplace in favor of those energy sources.

    With the plan largely fleshed out before Romney's remarks, the candidate took on the role of chief salesman for his plan today, telling a crowd of a few hundred supporters here there would be ancillary benefits to boosting domestic energy production beyond lowering energy prices at home.

    NBC's Mark Murray reveals the new NBC News Battleground Map and discusses fresh polling in some key states.

    "Three million jobs come back to this country by taking advantage of something we have right underneath our feet, that’s oil and gas and coal, we’re going to make it happen we’re going to create those jobs," Romney said.

    "Let me tell you what else it does," Romney continued "It adds $500 billion to the size of our economy. That’s more good wages, that’s an opportunity for more Americans to have a bright and prosperous future. It also means by the way tens of billions, potentially hundreds of billions of dollars of tax revenues going into states and the federal government, which can make sure we have a military second to none and schools that lead the world and care for our seniors, better roads and bridges."

    Romney also argued that becoming less dependent on unstable or hostile regimes for energy increases America's national security.

    "This is not just a matter of economy and jobs and rising incomes and the growing economy and more tax revenues. It’s also more security. It means we don’t have to rely on people who in some cases don’t like us very much," Romney said.

    Democrats responded to Romney's remarks with a statement.

    "He will embrace a backward, drilling-focused energy policy that prioritizes subsidies and tax breaks for the big oil and gas companies and leaves behind efforts to increase energy efficiency and develop homegrown alternative energy," Obama campaign spokesperson Lis Smith wrote in a statement to reporters. "This isn’t a recipe for energy independence; it’s just another irresponsible scheme to help line the pockets of big oil while allowing the U.S. to fall behind and cede the clean energy sector to China."

    Romney's choice of venue for publicly unveiling his plan raises some questions about his campaign strategy. The presumptive GOP nominee had not previously campaigned or run television ads in New Mexico, and while the state ranks 6th in oil production, according to government assessments, it is not considered a swing state. President Obama carried the state in 2008, and NBC's current battleground map, debuted this morning, places it in squarely in the "Lean Democratic" category.

  • Ron Paul's presence to be felt in Tampa

    Despite the delegates he won during the Republican presidential primary season, Ron Paul won't be speaking at next week's Republican convention in Tampa, Fla.

    But his presence will be felt there -- whether it's his supporters who will be flocking to the city or his son Rand, who will be speaking at the convention.

    And there's also the possibility of a video tribute to the Texas congressman.

    "We're told there's something special in the works on Tuesday paying tribute to Ron Paul," said Jesse Benton, Paul's national campaign manager.

    Richard Clement / Reuters

    U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, questions Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke (not pictured) during his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, in this July 21, 2009 file photo.

    Rand's big speech
    Perhaps the most high-profile Paul-related event at the convention will be Monday's primetime speech by Rand Paul, the freshman U.S. senator from Kentucky.

    The last time Ron Paul actually attended a Republican National Convention was in 1976, when he led the Texas delegation as one of only four congressmen to endorse Ronald Reagan over Gerald Ford. And joining him on the convention floor was his son, Rand, who then was 13 years old.

    Now the roles are sort of reversed.

    “Rand will be speaking on Monday,” Benton said. “And Ron will be watching his son’s speech from someplace inside the venue.”

    The speech the RNC "doesn't want the rest of America to hear"
    Ron Paul will be speaking in Tampa, too -- just not at the convention.

    On Sunday, he will deliver a keynote address to supporters at the University of South Florida’s Sun Dome at the campaign’s “We are the Future Rally,” which runs from noon to 6:00 pm ET. The sold-out venue seats 11,000, and Paul will deliver a speech he says “the Republican National Convention doesn’t want the rest of America to hear.” 

    “The rally on Sunday is a celebration of our delegates and how far we’ve come,” Benton added. “So much of our message is being embraced by the Republican Party.”

    With just four days until the RNC, President Barack Obama shares his thoughts on the Todd Akin controversy, doing his best to extend the conversation on abortion and reproductive rights. The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd reports.

    In what was supposed to be a show of strength, the campaign originally planned to load its delegates on buses after the rally and take them to the RNC Welcome Reception at Tropicana Field so the group can “make a grand entrance.”

    “This is our opportunity to show that we are the future of the Republican Party,” Paul wrote in an email to supporters earlier this month.

    But that plan had to be changed this week due to logistics surrounding the high security at the venue. Paul-supporting delegates can acquire their own transportation to attend the official GOP welcome party or postpone mingling with rank and file Republicans to attend a “Liberty Rocks” after party being thrown by the campaign at Whiskey Joe’s Bar & Grill in Tampa. 

    The after-party is open to everyone, and the more than 1,500 supporters expected to show up will be entertained by blues guitarist Jimmie Vaughan and John Popper from the Blues Traveler. In addition, delegates and alternates who are Paul supporters have been invited to a private reception with the Texas congressman before that party begins.

    “For many, it’s not a choice,” one Paul staffer organizing the event said. “Delegates have a rare opportunity for a private reception with Dr. Paul and have their photo taken with him.”

    The next morning, Paul will attend a fundraising breakfast sponsored by the Republican Party of Iowa.  The state’s GOP Chairman, A.J. Spiker, was a co-chair of Paul’s Iowa campaign and the unbound delegation from the Hawkeye state includes a majority of Paul supporters. 

    Later on Monday, Paul will greet his supporters at the Tampa Bay Times Forum. 

    A video tribute?
    According to the campaign, the RNC is planning a special tribute to the 77-year-old Paul on the second night of the convention, which would mark a change in the party’s attitude towards the Texas congressman who has run for president three times and has started a small revolution inside the Grand Old Party. 

    Convention organizers have not responded to repeated requests for confirmation, and the official schedule released for Tuesday makes no mention of a tribute to Paul. However, there are spots on the schedule labeled “Segment to be announced,” as well as “videos” during the evening –- which supporters believe will be where the party will place the tribute.

    Asked if Paul will stick around to watch Romney’s acceptance speech on Thursday, Benton says that’s “still up in the air.”

    Paul-supporting delegates attending the convention have been advised to be respectful, defend their positions, and don't be “pushed around.” Many are excited to see other Paul supporters from across the country and will attempt to introduce themselves to other Republicans. 

    “There’s been a lot of confusion on what we represent,” said Carl Bunce, Paul’s Nevada state chair and delegate to the convention. “We’ll be going to some of the cocktail parties and getting our message out there. We have to let people know what type of people we are versus the stereotype.”

    Rothenberg Political Report and Roll Call's Nathan Gonzales, National Review's Robert Costa and USA Today's Jackie Kucinich talk about Paul Ryan's roots and how he got into politics.

    Crafting the RNC's platform
    Another delegate attending the convention, Chris Stearns, was Paul’s Virginia State director and has been tasked by the campaign to lead efforts on the RNC platform committee.

    “This is going to be a very significant business trip for me,” Stearns said. “I’m looking forward to helping craft the platform with Dr. Paul’s message of constitutional government, making sure it’s well represented in the party platform.”

    As to whether a majority of the party has accepted some of those views, including auditing the Federal Reserve and requiring a formal declaration of war before committing military forces overseas, Stearns seems confident that message has become mainstream.

    “Everybody that I’ve dealt with has been very approachable, very friendly and it’s amazing. The Republicans in this country have really shifted from the Bush era … and are taking constitutional- and liberty-minded principles very seriously.”

    This week, delegates included planks to the Republican Party’s 2012 platform draft that embrace some longtime goals of Dr. Paul’s -- an annual audit of the Federal Reserve and the creation of a commission to consider returning the U.S. dollar to the gold standard -- which will be voted on by the full convention next week. 

    Reacting to the inclusion of his dad’s policy goals into the Republican document, Sen. Rand Paul wrote, “This is great news and is long overdue.”

    Citing a quote from playwright Victor Hugo that his dad frequently used on the campaign trail, Sen. Paul added: "'You can resist an invading army; you cannot resist an idea whose time has come.’ The time for Fed transparency has come.”

  • First Thoughts: Unchanged

    Our latest NBC News battleground map shows no change since June… 237 electoral votes in the Dem column, 191 in the GOP’s, and 110 are in the toss-up category… Ranking the nine toss-up states… Breaking down a slew of new state polls… Romney to unveil energy plan in Hobbs, NM at 12:55 pm ET… And the AP and NYT give Team Obama some unwelcome scrutiny on donors/key contributors.

    *** Unchanged: In NBC News’ latest battleground state map before the conventions, President Obama maintains his lead over Mitt Romney, with 237 electoral votes in the Democratic column and 191 in the GOP one. That’s unchanged from our last map back in June. The toss-up states, representing 110 electoral votes, are the same, too: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. (Yes, we’ve had Wisconsin in the toss-up column since June.) And all of this reflects how little the race has moved, despite everything that has happened in the past two-plus months. Here’s the map:  

    With just four days until the RNC, President Barack Obama shares his thoughts on the Todd Akin controversy, doing his best to extend the conversation on abortion and reproductive rights. The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd reports.

    Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, ME (3 EVs) MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (70 electoral votes)
    Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, WA (94)
    Lean Dem: ME (1 EV) MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR, PA (73)
    Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA, WI (110)
    Lean GOP: AZ, GA, IN, MO, NE (I EV) (49)
    Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, LA, MS, MT, ND, SC, SD, TX (79)
    Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, NE (4 EVs) OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (63)

    *** Breaking down the nine toss-up states: One way to look at the nine toss-up states is in the likelihood of Romney being able to flip them from blue to red. Here’s our list (from most likely to least likely):

    1. North Carolina
    2. Iowa
    3. Florida
    4. Colorado
    5. Virginia
    6. Nevada
    7. Ohio
    8. Wisconsin
    9. New Hampshire

    What’s striking about this list is if you give Romney the Top 4 (NC, IA, FL, and CO) that only gets him to 250 electoral votes. And if you give him the next two on the list (VA and NV), he’s still one short of 270 (bringing us to that 269-269 tie). That means he has to put one of Ohio, Wisconsin, or New Hampshire into the mix to get past 270. Bottom line: Romney’s map to 270 is more than doable, but it’s also a high-wire act. By the way, we were debating whether to put Wisconsin ahead of Ohio (given the polls below), but what wins out -- for now -- is that the Obama and Romney campaigns aren’t advertising there right now. 

    The GOP and Democratic conventions are not just fun, games and balloon drops.  USA Today's Susan Davis and The Washington Post's Paul Kane give a behind the scenes look of what happens at the conventions.

    *** A slew of new state polls: Given our new NBC battleground map, there are plenty of new state polls out there. A trio of New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac polls of likely voters suggests that Romney got a slight bounce from the Paul Ryan pick in Wisconsin and Florida, but no real bounce in Ohio. In Florida, it’s Obama 49%, Romney 46% (down from 51%-45% earlier this month); in Ohio, it’s Obama 50%, Romney 44% (unchanged); and in Wisconsin, it’s Obama 49%, Romney 47% (down from 51%-45%). The New York Times notes that the Romney-Ryan plan to overhaul Medicare is unpopular in these three states, and Obama leads Romney in all three states on the question of who would do a better job on Medicare. But what strikes us are these numbers: Almost 60% in all three states say that Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like them, while less than 45% say the same about Romney. Yesterday, a Marquette Law School poll had Obama leading Romney in Wisconsin by three points among likely voters, 49%-46%, down from five points before the Ryan pick (50%-45%). 

    *** Obama camp rolls out Bill Clinton: Remember when we told you that the Romney campaign was making a gamble by elevating Bill Clinton in its TV ads and on the campaign trail? Well, the Obama camp is calling their bluff by releasing a new TV ad featuring the former president. “This election to me is about which candidate is more likely to return us to full employment. This is a clear choice,” Clinton says to the camera. “The Republican plan is to cut more taxes on upper income people and go back to deregulation. That’s what got us in trouble in the first place.” Clinton concludes, “President Obama has a plan to rebuild America from the ground up, investing in innovation, education and job training. It only works if there is a strong middle class. That’s what happened when I was president. We need to keep going with his plan.” It should be noted that Clinton, who will give a primetime speech at the upcoming Democratic convention, has a 57%-23% fav/unfav rating in our poll. 

    *** Romney to talk energy: At 12:55 pm ET from Hobbs, NM, Romney will unveil his energy policy, NBC’s Garrett Haake reports. “The Romney policy, spelled out in a white paper and on a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, focuses on developing domestic fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal - in large part by shifting federal responsibilities to the states, and by expanding exploration and production nationwide... Romney's plan would make states the custodian of energy production on federal lands within their borders and allow them to implement their own federally-approved leasing practices." Haake adds that Romney's plan “pays little attention to renewable fuels like wind and solar power.” The Obama camp issued this statement from former Clinton Energy Secretary Federico Pena: “Only two days after a fundraiser hosted by the CEO of major oil companies, Romney is expected to defend billions in oil subsidies while opposing efforts to use oil more efficiently and develop homegrown alternative energy. We will never reach energy independence by turning our backs on homegrown renewable energy and better auto mileage.”  

    Isaac Brekken / AP

    President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign stop, Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, in North Las Vegas, Nev.

    *** Money for nothing? Republicans and the Romney campaign are seizing on these two stories today. The AP: “A veteran Wall Street executive [Herbert M. Allison Jr.] who performed an independent review that exonerated the Obama administration's program of loans to energy companies contributed $52,500 to re-elect President Barack Obama in the months since completing his work... The executive defended the integrity of his conclusions and said he decided to donate to Obama after his work was finished.” And here’s the New York Times on the Obama administration’s close ties to the Illinois-based energy firm Exelon: “With energy an increasingly pivotal issue for the Obama White House, a review of Exelon’s relationship with the administration shows how familiarity has helped foster access at the upper reaches of government and how, in some cases, the outcome has been favorable for Exelon.” 

    *** On the trail: As mentioned above, Romney holds his energy event in Hobbs, NM at 12:55 pm ET… Ryan attends a defense-industry roundtable in Fayetteville, NC at noon ET. And when Ryan raises money in Missouri today, organized labor says they’ll have a protest featuring local truck drivers, retirees, and construction workers.  

    Countdown to GOP convention: 4 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 11 days
    Countdown to 1st presidential debate: 41 days
    Countdown to VP debate: 49 days
    Countdown to 2nd presidential debate: 54 days
    Countdown to 3rd presidential debate: 60 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 75 days

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  • Programming notes

    *** Thursday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up (with guest host Luke Russert): A sneak preview of Chuck Todd’s documentary “Mitt Romney: The Making of a Candidate,” which airs this Friday at 10 am ET on MSNBC… The Washington Post’s Paul Kane and USA Today’s Susan Davis with an in-depth look at what will really be happening on the floor and backstage at the conventions… NBC’s Ron Mott on the road with Ryan… MSNBC’s Bill Karins with the latest on Tropical Storm Isaac and its potential impact on Tampa… NBC’s Harry Smith with a preview of Rock Center’s “Mormon in America” report tonight… More 2012 news with National Review’s Robert Costa, The Rothenberg Report’s Nathan Gonzales and USA Today’s Jackie Kucinich.

    *** Thursday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Romney surrogate and former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent, Dan Rather, the Atlantic’s Molly Ball, former Santorum strategist John Brabender, Dem strategist Karen Finney, former Navy SEAL Dick Couch, and advertising & public relations executive Howard Bragman. 

    *** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’S Thomas Roberts talks with Quinnipiac Pollster Peter Brown, Ron Reagan and former Biden Economic Adviser Jared Bernstein. The Washington Post’s Nia Malika Henderson, Chris Kofinis, and JP Friere join the Power Panel.  

    *** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include MSNBC Political Analyst Richard Wolffe, CNBC Chief Washington Correspondent John Harwood, Demos Vice President Heather McGhee, Salon.com Editor-at-Large Joan Walsh, TIME’s Michael Crowley, and Michael Grunwald, author, “The New New Deal.” 

    *** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), Family Research Council President Tony Perkins,  the Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus and Jonathan Capehart, Time’s Richard Stengel and NBC’s Ron Mott travelling with the Paul Ryan.

    *** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Tampa Florida Mayor Bob Buckhorn, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (who is on the RNC platform committee), The Hill’s AB Stoddard, GOP strategist Alice Stewart, Zachary Karabell and Jonathan Alter. 

    *** Thursday’s “The Cycle” line-up: MSNBC’s Toure, Krystal Ball, Steve Kornacki, S.E. Cupp interview Politico’s Jake Sherman, Author of Where They Stand Robert Merry, Filmmaker Peter Navarro, and Sue Shellenbarger.

  • 2012: New battleground polls

    Obama leads in Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin in new Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times polls, but the pick of Ryan helped cut into Obama’s lead in Wisconsin and make that a margin of error race. 

    Obama’s most statistically significant lead is in Ohio, where he’s up 50-44% among likely voters. There, Romney is a 39-45% net-negative favorability rating. In Florida, Obama’s up 49-46%, and Wisconsin just 49-47%. Voters were asked about how the Ryan pick impacted their decision. In Ohio and Florida, majorities said it made not difference, but in Wisconsin, while a plurality (45%) said it made no difference, more people said it did (31%) than it didn’t (22%). That was much wider than the 1-point difference seen in Ohio and Florida. The Ryan pick also doesn’t appear to have moved seniors in Florida, as Romney maintains a double-digit lead with the group in the state.

    “Few likely voters are undecided in these battleground states, and nine in 10 say their minds are made up. Only one in 10 says they could change their minds about who to support,” CBS writes, but: “In all three of these battleground states, Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting this year. Republican enthusiasm about voting has also risen from earlier this month.”

    What’s driving Obama’s lead in Florida? Latinos. That’s a wider margin than he won them in 2008, 57-42%. And that was a 27-point swing from 2004, when George W. Bush WON Latinos in Florida, 56-44%. 

  • Obama: Hoop Dreams

    “President Obama swished and dished in the city Wednesday to net some serious dough at a trifecta of basketball-themed fund-raisers — but a gimpy knee was expected to keep him from playing above the rim,” the New York Daily News writes. “Obama’s latest trip to the political ATM that is the Big Apple featured cash grabs — more like cash dunks — with NBA stars and a $20,000-per-person dinner co-hosted by the one-and-only Michael Jordan. The ‘Obama Classic,’ as the $3 million night at Lincoln Center was dubbed, included a $250 per-fan autograph signing and a $5,000-per-baller skills camp." 

    “A veteran Wall Street executive who performed an independent review that exonerated the Obama administration’s program of loans to energy companies contributed $52,500 to re-elect President Barack Obama in the months since completing his work, according to an Associated Press review of campaign records. The executive defended the integrity of his conclusions and said he decided to donate to Obama after his work was finished,” AP writes. 

    Bill Clinton favorability scores in the NBC/WSJ poll are very high, higher than Obama, Biden, Romney, Ryan, etc. And today the Obama campaign is out with an ad with a full-throated endorsement by Clinton of Obama’s economic philosophy. 

    USA Today: “The commercial is the latest attempt by Obama to associate himself with a popular president who enjoyed a good economy on his watch. Entitled ‘clear choice,’ the new commercial is airing in New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada." 

    USA Today looks at how the Obama campaign is trying to make the most of the Akin controversy.

    Reuters does a similar story. 

    “The Congressional Budget Office made it official today, projecting a $1 trillion-plus budget deficit for the fourth straight year,” USA Today writes. “The CBO said this year's red ink will total $1.1 trillion for fiscal year 2012, which ends Sept. 30. Republicans quickly jumped on the new deficit projection, blaming President Obama while promoting GOP candidate Mitt Romney.”

    The New York Daily News: “The nation’s top military official scolded a group of veterans for criticizing President Obama in a new online documentary, saying in an interview that he is ‘disappointed’ by their partisan comments.”

    USA Today: “Israel is unlikely to provide much if any advance notice to the United States if it attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, Middle East experts say. … In the past, Israel has given the Americans ‘very general notice,’ said Yoram Peri, director of the Israel studies program at the University of Maryland. ‘They would never talk in advance.’ For example, Israel unilaterally attacked nuclear facilities in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007 and didn't give the United States advance warning.”

  • Romney: Spotlighting the auto bailout

    “When Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan campaign together in Michigan on Friday, it will likely give Democrats a chance to highlight how the GOP ticket differs on the auto bailout,” USA Today writes.  

    USA Today: “Look deeper on the Wisconsin House member's list of priorities, military and foreign policy experts say, and you'll see a commitment to standard GOP principles: support for robust Pentagon spending and opposition to President Obama's foreign policy. He takes advice from the American Enterprise Institute, a hawkish think tank favored by Republicans." 

    Will Ryan bring Wisconsin? The University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics blog notes, “The last eight vice-presidential nominees from the Midwest have carried their home state dating back to 1944.”

    Seriously, Cardinal Dolan will give the benediction at the Republican National Convention, but it’s not an endorsement necessarily, the New York Daily News reports. 

    So think about this, Dolan will speak at the RNC (religious freedom) and Sandra Fluke (women’s health/birth control) will speak at the DNC. 

    There’s one thing the Swiss just can’t stay neutral about… The Swiss government isn’t happy with Obama’s ads and tone about Romney’s Swiss holdings, nor is it pleased with “Romney Girl,” a satirical video that lampoons Romney’s wealth and features a character named, “Swiss Miss Bank Account.”

  • McCaskill avoids direct hit on Akin over abortion remarks

    ST. CHARLES, Mo. – One day after Rep. Todd Akin vowed to stay in the race for US Senate, dismissing calls from across the Republican party to step aside, Sen. Claire McCaskill welcomed Akin back to the campaign by bashing him for abandoning veterans during his years in Congress.

     Visiting two VFW halls near St. Louis on Wednesday, McCaskill, the Democrat Akin is hoping to unseat here in Missouri, went through a list of Akin votes that took more than two minutes to recite.

     Audiences were mostly male and senior citizen.  Survivors of combat in Vietnam – and at least one World War II veteran – looked on beneath baseball caps decorated with military insignia as she accused Akin of blocking bonuses for troops stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan and voting against health care benefits for reservists and national guard members.

     “So that’s kind of the list,” McCaskill said of Akin’s voting record.  “Now, I don’t have a list like that."

     The attack did not include any mention of the recent controversy embroiling Akin.

     Sunday, Akin told a television interviewer that women could biologically prevent pregnancies resulting from what he called “legitimate rape.” 

     The remarks set off a firestorm, but Wednesday McCaskill only alluded to them broadly.

     During a press conference outside a VFW home in nearby Overland, McCaskill brushed aside questions about Akin’s future.

     “The voters have spoken, and he’s the nominee,” McCaskill said.

     “We’re going to draw the contrasts that I think are necessary so that voters know that he’s outside the mainstream, he’s very extreme,” she added later.

     Tuesday, Akin let a deadline for withdrawing from the Senate race pass.

    Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., confirms with TODAY's Matt Lauer that vice presidential candidate and fellow congressman Paul Ryan advised him to step down amid the fallout of comments he made about rape and abortion.

     He told NBC’s Matt Lauer during a Wednesday interview on the TODAY show that his nomination was a “decision made by the citizens of our state, not the party bosses.”

     McCaskill’s VFW visits were part of a so-called “Vets for Claire” listening tour that the campaign says was arranged prior to the Akin controversy.

     A VFW official in Overland asked reporters to hold McCaskill’s press conference outside the building, in order to keep the organization compliant with rules prohibiting political activity by 501(c)(3) charity groups.

  • Romney campaign rolls out energy policy

     

     

    LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – With just one week until Mitt Romney takes the stage at the GOP convention in Tampa, his campaign rolled out the candidate's energy policy -- one that they hope illustrates stark differences with President Obama, and which excites middle class voters looking for an economic boost.

    The Romney policy, spelled out in a white paper and on a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, focuses on developing domestic fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal - in large part by shifting federal responsibilities to the states, and by expanding exploration and production nationwide. Romney will outline the policy in oil-rich New Mexico on Thursday.

    Romney's plan would make states the custodian of energy production on federal lands within their borders and allow them to implement their own federally-approved leasing practices. Such a move would effectively shift responsibility for permitting, leasing and environmental regulation to states, with the hope of speeding energy development by cutting red tape.

    Romney's plan calls for reaching North American energy independence by 2020, primarily through expansion of traditional fossil fuels. The United States is currently the world's third largest oil producer, which Romney would hope to expand. The U.S. also currently imports more than half its oil from countries in the Western Hemisphere, with Canada making up a 29-percent share. Those imports could be increased through greater cooperation and by the immediate approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, and similar projects.

    "The challenge in getting there is not about the resources we have, it’s not about the technology we have, it’s about the government that we have," said Oren Cass, Romney's domestic policy director. "And the real question is are we going to pursue the political reforms that will allow us to develop the resources to their fullest?"

    Those reforms will also include greenlighting increased offshore drilling, slowed after 2009's BP oil spill disaster, particularly off the coasts of Virginia and North Carolina where Romney's advisers argue there is already widespread support for increased offshore drilling.

    "One of the things that's detailed here in the policy under the offshore section is to establish the most aggressive leasing plan ever put forward, as compared to President Obama's, which was the least aggressive ever put forward," Cass told reporters.

    The GOP challenger's plan pays little attention to renewable fuels like wind and solar power, long championed by Democrats, including Obama, who has touted green jobs creation as a major part of his own economic and energy plans.

    Romney's plan, in contrast, includes continued research support for alternative fuels, but would have wind and solar generation succeed or fail on their own, without government subsidies or loan guarantees, a politically unpopular position in some wind and solar producing states like Iowa and Colorado, but one Romney's advisers said they believed could be overcome by the overall economic benefits of their plan.

    President Obama makes a similar argument about continued oil industry tax subsidies, arguing that the highly profitable major oil companies don't need the tax breaks, the extension of which is supported by Romney.

    Romney is expected to further outline his energy plan in remarks later today in New Mexico, the sixth largest oil producing state in the country, pumping roughly 3-percent of the nation's oil on an annual basis, according to the Energy Information Administration.

  • Obama talks hoops in NYC, dunks Rep. Todd Akin

     

    NEW YORK, N.Y. – Raising money among NBA players – who are no strangers to trash talk -- President Barack Obama took some shots at Republican Congressman Todd Akin, whose controversial remarks on rape Obama said were indicative of the Republican Party’s position as a whole.

    Speaking at a $20,000-per-person dinner set up on the stage of Alice Tully Hall, Obama noted that the attendees, which included Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing and Carmelo Anthony, “have been paying attention to the commentary of the senator from Missouri, Mr. Akin.”

    “The interesting thing here is that this is an individual who sits on the House committee on science and technology but somehow missed science class,” Obama said as his audience laughed.


    “But it’s representative of a desire to go backwards instead of forwards. And fights that we thought were settled 20, 30 years ago,” he continued, linking Akin to a political party whose mainstream members, including Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, have disowned him.

    Besides a few sharp political jabs, Obama tailored his speech to his hoops-loving crowd, likening this election, in which the candidates are neck-and-neck, to a close game. 

    “I can't resist a basketball analogy,” Obama said. “We are in the fourth quarter, we're up by a few points but the other side is coming strong and they play a little dirty,” he said as the crowd laughed.

    “We’ve got a few folks on our team in foul trouble. We’ve got a couple of injuries and I believe they’ve got one last run in them,” he continued, describing what he thought of his opponent Mitt Romney’s campaign.

    Obama also suggested he was taking some advice from Jordan, who introduced the president at the event.

    “Michael's competitiveness is legendary. And nobody knows better than Michael that if you’ve got a little bit of a lead and there’s about seven minutes to go, that’s when you put ’em away,” Obama said.

    “You don't let up! That's how the Bulls won six,” he said, alluding to the number of championships the Chicago Bulls won in eight years – which, incidentally, is how long Obama hopes to be in office by 2016.The basketball-themed fundraising continued Wednesday night as Obama sped five blocks to the Jazz at Lincoln Center complex, where he hosted the “Obama Classic” shoot-around.

  • Biden bemoans GOP Medicare plan in recession-ravaged Michigan

    Paul Sancya / AP

    Vice President Joe Biden greets Lawrence Smith, 8, and Madison King, 9, both of Van Buren Township, Mich., during a campaign stop at Renaissance High School, Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, in Detroit.

    DETROIT -- For Joe Biden, all politics is personal, from his relationships with past presidents to the little white lies his siblings told their ailing mother.

    Campaigning Wednesday in famously recession-ravaged Michigan, Biden bemoaned the consequences of the GOP ticket's plans for Medicare and said that their proposed changes would exacerbate the sacrifices already made by families on behalf of their elderly relatives.

    Noting that he and his siblings have been financially successful, the vice president offered the delicate details of his family members combining financial resources to care for mother Catherine "Jean" Biden, who died in 2010 at the age of 92.

    "It was still a struggle to take care of all my mom's bills," he told a crowd of over a thousand at Renaissance High School. "We were able to do it, no complaint, it was an honor. But you know what it did, we had to lie to my mom and tell her, 'No honey, this is all covered by your Medicare, this is all covered by the sale of your home,' which it wasn't."

    "Because do you know any parent who wants to be a burden for their children?" he added, arguing that the "voucherization" of Medicare proposed under the Ryan budget would further hurt the elderly's abilities to cover their own expenses.

    The vice president, who commonly cites his personal friendship with President Barack Obama, compared the current leader of the free world with the gaggle of other commanders-in-chief he says he's known personally.

    "I've known eight presidents, three of them intimately," noted the six-term senator after citing the "four to six hours a day" he typically spends with Obama. "I have never once in the difficult decisions he's had to make heard him ask me or anyone else 'what are the politics of this for me?'"

    Perhaps the most resonant endorsement of the Obama ticket on Wednesday came not from Biden but from his introducer, 17-year old Olympic gold medalist Claressa Shields, a boxer from Flint, Mich.

    Paul Sancya / AP

    Vice President Joe Biden introduces Olympic boxing gold medalist Claressa Shields during a campaign stop at Renaissance High School, Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, in Detroit.

    "It's pretty cool knowing when you represent your country, you've got a president and a vice president who represent you," said Shields, who was greeted with wild applause. "We've had tough times in Michigan, but we never give up. We just get up and keep going."

    That message - and Shield's famed toughness - were echoed by Biden as he praised the Motor City's resilience.

    "My dad used to say the measure of a man or woman wasn't whether they got knocked down but how quickly they got back up," he said. "And guess what? Detroit's getting back up!"

  • Impassioned Obama hits Romney on education in swing state Nevada

     

    LAS VEGAS -- It may have been the small, echoing gym filled with 2,700 yelling people, but at today’s campaign event, President Barack Obama felt more “fired up, ready to go” than he’s seemed in a while.

    Today’s focus, like the two events yesterday, was education. But the president allowed himself to get a bit more expressive when talking about the importance of teachers.

    Isaac Brekken / AP

    President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign stop, Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, in North Las Vegas, Nev.

    And while the actual content of the last two days' education-driven speeches hasn’t been incredibly different, the president’s tone seemed affected by the raucous crowd responses, including a sustained “four more years” chant to overpower a heckler who ended up being ejected from the event by Secret Service.

    And this crowd also ended up drowning the president himself out as he finished up his speech, almost yelling: “We've got more veterans we've got to help. We've got more doors of opportunity we've got to open up to every single American. That's why I'm asking for a second term."

    The president has spoken about his fifth grade teacher in the past, but bringing her up today allowed him to also put a personal spin on painting presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney as extremist on the subject of education.

    Speaking at campaign rally in Las Vegas, President Obama says Mitt Romney's spending cuts would cripple schools while his tax cuts shower more breaks on millionaires. Watch his entire speech.

    “The right teacher can change a child's life forever. Look, I know this from personal experience. When I was in fifth grade, I had a teacher named Mabel Hefty. That was her name. And she was a great teacher," Obama started into the story. "I had just come back from living a few years overseas with my mom and wasn't sure how I'd fit in. And she noticed that, Ms. Hefty. And she took me under her wing, and she made me feel like I had something to say, and that I had some talent."

    "Gov. Romney says we've got enough teachers, we don't need any more. You know, the way he talks about them, it seems as if he thinks these are a bunch of nameless government bureaucrats that we need to cut back on. Those are his words,” the president added.

    The president's latest campaign jaunt took him to Ohio and Nevada -- two important swing states -- to press the case for education as many students get ready to head back to school. His campaign released complementary TV ads to additionally pummel Romney on education cuts.

    "I've got a question for Governor Romney. How many teachers' jobs are worth another tax cut for millionaires and billionaires?" Obama said Wednesday, using more pointed language toward his Republican challenger. "How many kids in Head Start are worth a tax cut for somebody like me who doesn't need it?"

    But according to NBC’s Garrett Haake, Romney was ready with an educational response during an event Wednesday in Iowa.

    “If you want to invest in young people, let me tell you what you need to do, Mr. President," Romney said. "You need to make sure that our K-through-12 schools are getting better, all right, that's number one. Not just talk, but actually getting better."

  • Romney returns to economy-driven message in Iowa

     

    BETTENDORF, IA -- Mitt Romney returned Wednesday to the core issue of his candidacy -- the economy -- in Iowa, the state that played host to the first nominating contest of the primary cycle.

    Following two weeks of distractions, the GOP contender once again focused his remarks on the single animating issue of his campaign: the economy.

    Mitt Romney campaigned in the heartland on Wednesday, attacking President Obama's handling of the economy. Watch his entire speech.

    “Now the president promised that he was gonna cut the deficit in half. Yeah, it didn’t happen, did it? He’s more than doubled it. He’s added almost as much debt held by the public -- $5 trillion – as all the prior presidents of the country combined," Romney told an audience of more than 1,000 supporters at a factory here in Eastern Iowa. "You look at all of the debt of the country, why it’s about the size of our entire economy. This puts us on a path to become like Europe."

    Since the selection of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, Romney has fought a running battle on the issue of Medicare, aired a series of debunked attacks on welfare reform, and been forced to wade into the controversy of Missouri Rep. Todd Akin's controversial comments on rape. Today in Iowa, he touched on none of the above, instead hammering President Obama over his stewardship of the economy.

    Romney was helped in his economic case today by the release of the latest report by the Congressional Budget Office, which said that the 2012 fiscal year would be the fourth consecutive year in which the federal government ran a deficit greater than $1 trillion dollars, and which predicted unemployment would remain above 8 percent for the remainder of the year.

    "You see, we don’t have to guess what the future looks like if we stay with the current president," Romney continued. "We can see what’s happening over in Europe."

    Democrats quickly responded.

    “Mitt Romney today said that a Romney-Ryan White House would make America stronger, but we know that’s not true," Obama campaign spokesperson Lis Smith said in a statement, calling the Republican platform "the same failed formula that crashed the economy and devastated the middle class in the first place.”

    With President Obama campaigning at a high school in Nevada today to tout his education policies, Romney also engaged on the subject, calling for an education system that was competitive on the international stage, and for putting students and their parents ahead of the teachers unions, a favorite Romney bogeyman.

    Even Romney's attack lines on education had an economic tinge to them.

    "You have got to make sure that we create jobs in this country so that people coming out of school can get a good job, Romney said, laying out his education goals with advice to President Obama. "You don't max out their credit card if you will by giving them something that they're having to pay for down the road plus interest, what you do is you make sure that we do not pass on trillions of dollars in debts to the next generation."

  • Poll: Obama leads Romney in Wisconsin after Ryan pick

     

    President Barack Obama leads presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Wisconsin in the first major poll of Badger State voters since Rep. Paul Ryan was added to the Republican ticket.

    Forty-nine percent of likely Wisconsin voters said they would vote for Obama if the election were held today, versus 46 percent of voters who said they would vote for the Romney-Ryan ticket, according to a Marquette University Law poll released Wednesday.

    That's a much closer margin than has separated Romney and Obama in this swing state for much of 2012; the two candidates were tied in Marquette's likely voter model in mid-May, but Obama opened a wider lead over Romney during the course of the summer. The law school's last poll conducted before the Ryan pick had Obama ahead, 50-45 percent.

    NBC News currently rates Wisconsin a "toss up" in its ratings of swing states this fall. But no Republican presidential candidate has won there since President Ronald Reagan in 1994. Nonetheless, the GOP ticket did campaign there shortly after Ryan was named Romney's running mate, and some Republican super PACs have spent on television advertising in the state.

    To that end, 29 percent of registered Wisconsin voters said the choice of Ryan made them more likely to vote for Romney, and 13 percent said it would make them less likely to support the former Massachusetts governor. But 53 percent said Ryan's addition to the GOP ticket had no impact on their vote.

    **Also of note: Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, on the heels of his victory this month in a three-way Republican primary, leads Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin in the race for Wisconsin's open Senate seat.

    Fifty percent of registered Wisconsin voters said they would vote for Thompson, versus 41 percent who would back Baldwin. Both are running to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl.

    The poll, conducted Aug. 16-19, has a 4.2 percent margin of error for its sample of likely voters, and a 3.8 percent margin of error for its sample of registered voters.

  • Ryan backed more than one 'forcible rape' abortion bill

     

    While Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan's national public identity has been more fiscal hawk than culture warrior, Ryan has long been a strong opponent of abortion rights who believes that life begins at conception.

    And he has pursued and supported legislation that backs up those socially conservative views.

    The Todd Akin episode invited a closer look at Ryan's record on abortion and social issues. While Ryan has flatly rejected Akin's reference to "legitimate rape," Ryan's name and his vote are tied to instances in which the term "forcible rape" appeared in legislation. The bills sought to place limits on access to abortion or health insurance coverage for an abortion.

    Three years ago, the then-39-year-old congressman co-sponsored an abortion-related amendment called "Limitations on Abortion Mandates."

    That proposed amendment was blocked in what was a Democratic-controlled House Ways and Means Committee. Ryan and only one co-sponsor, Rep. Sam Johnson of Texas, proposed a change to health-care legislation that would have required health insurance cover abortion services. 

    The Ryan-Johnson failed amendment did specify limited exceptions, permitting abortion coverage including when the life of the mother is at stake and in line 16 of the proposed text "... unless the pregnancy is the result of an act of forcible rape or incest."

    More recently and more widely covered, Ryan was among a much larger group of 186 co-sponsors that included Akin of H.R. 5939, "To prohibit taxpayer funded abortions and to provide for conscience protections...." 

    Again, the text of the 2010 bill, typically written by committee senior staff, included nearly the same wording as his July 2009 amendment with the term "forcible rape." The language in lines 15 and 16 reads: "(1) if the pregnancy is the result of an act of forcible rape, or incest with a minor...."

    Aides to the Romney-Ryan campaign say the congressman has been "clear and consistent that rape is rape." Ryan did not defend the term "forcible," saying this week, "There is no splitting hairs over rape."

    Asked why Ryan backed measures that referred to "forcible rape," advisers say Ryan has supported other abortion-related bills that have not contained that language.

    For broader context, the term "forcible rape" appears to have roots in the legal community, where it has been used by prosecutors to distinguish that crime from "statutory rape," which involves a minor unable to legally consent or a person who lacks mental capacity for legal consent.

    *** UPDATE **The Romney-Ryan campaign points out that Ryan did not initiate the "Limitations on Abortion Mandates" amendment that included the term "forcible rape." That amendment failed to get out of committee in July, 2009 during the health care debate. The amendment was proposed by and carried the name of a more senior Republican colleague, Rep. Sam Johnson of Texas. Ryan joined Johnson in offering the amendment. Ryan was identified in the ea rlier post as a "co-sponsor" of the amendment, but that isn't technically the correct term.  

    That said, Ryan did vote in support of the amendment with all other Republicans on the committee. Further, the measure also had the support of three Democrats, Reps. Pomeroy, Tanner and Pascrell. The amendment was defeated.

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