Saul Loeb / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks at the University of Colorado Hospital in Aurora, Colorado, July 22, 2012, following a visit with victims and family members of last week's shootings during a midnight showing of the new Batman movie, "The Dark Knight Rises," at a nearby movie theater that left 12 killed and 58 injured.

The campaign resumes, though not to the level we saw before Friday’s tragic shooting… Obama addresses the VFW in Reno, NV at 3:30 pm ET, while Romney stumps in Costa Mesa, CA… Romney’s upcoming overseas trip offers risks and rewards… Approaching halftime in this presidential contest… Breaking down June’s fundraising numbers… Barofsky’s complaint… Introducing Patchwork Nation… And profiling Kelly Ayotte’s strengths and weaknesses as Romney’s potential VP.

*** The campaign resumes -- sort of: After the tragic shooting in Colorado and after President Obama yesterday visited with the survivors and families that lost loved ones there, the presidential campaign resumes today. Obama addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars conference in Reno, NV at 3:30 pm ET (and his campaign releases a web video in advance of it), while Mitt Romney holds a small-business roundtable in Costa Mesa, CA at 1:30 pm ET and then tapes an interview with CNBC’s Larry Kudlow. Yet both campaigns still seem sensitive to tone; the Obama camp says it won’t be airing any TV ads in Colorado through Friday, and it has canceled this week’s rally in Portland. Meanwhile, at a fundraiser in San Francisco last night, Romney avoided any harsh political shots and said that Obama’s visit to Colorado yesterday was “the right thing for the president to be doing on this day. I appreciate that.” And Romney prepares for his upcoming overseas trip (more on that below). Bottom line: The campaign has resumed, but not to the level we saw until Friday’s tragic shooting.

*** Last week’s negative back-and-forth: When we left you before the shooting, of course, the campaign may have hit its most negative point of the race. The Obama camp was hammering Romney in advertising -- including the one where Romney sings “American the Beautiful” while the ad charges that Romney and Bain Capital outsourced jobs overseas and that Romney has a Swiss bank account. For his part, Romney was accusing Obama of being anti-business and essentially against the American Dream in seizing on Obama’s “you didn’t build that” line (which was taken out of context). While supporters have enthusiastically embraced their side’s attacks, there are dangers here for both candidates. For Obama, do these negative TV ads his campaign is airing take a toll on his own poll numbers? In the New York Times, Tom Edsall observes that this negative campaign contradicts his famous 2004 convention speech, where he called for an end to the politics of division. And for Romney, does he risk backlash for portraying the country’s first African-American president -- who was raised at one time by a single mother on food stamps -- for being against the American Dream?

*** Bon voyage: Over the weekend, NBC’s Garrett Haake previewed Romney’s upcoming overseas trip to Great Britain, Israel, and Poland, which Haake said offers risks and rewards for the presumptive GOP presidential nominee. Here’s the official schedule: On Thursday, he participates in meetings in England with Prime Minister David Cameron and others; on Friday, he attends the Olympics opening ceremonies; on Sunday, he meets in Israel with officials like Prime Minister Netanyahu and delivers a speech there; on Monday, he heads to Poland; and on Tuesday, he delivers a speech in that country. Yet when you think about it, Romney has minimized his risk as much as possible, especially when you compare it to Obama’s higher-risk travel to Afghanistan/Iraq/Jordan/Israel/Germany/France/England four years ago. Arguably, Romney is hitting two countries -- Israel and Poland -- that still pine for the days of George W. Bush. That said, what will he say that’s going to be different than Bush-Cheney? The Bush foreign policy is not something the country viewed very favorably, thanks mostly to Iraq. Carving out a different vision from not just Obama, but Bush, might be Romney’s biggest challenge on this overseas trip. 

*** Approaching halftime: With Romney embarking on his overseas trip and with the Olympics beginning on Friday, we’re essentially approaching halftime in the general election of this presidential race. (Staying with our football analogy, the conventions kickoff the 3^rd quarter). And where do we stand going into halftime? Well, we’re releasing a brand-new NBC/WSJ poll this week that might answer that question.

*** On the trail: In addition to his VFW speech today, Obama raises money in Oakland, CA… Romney also hits a fundraiser in Irvine, CA… And Vice President Biden, in Florida, addresses the National Association of Police Organizations convention.

*** Breaking down the June fundraising numbers: As we predicted, the Obama campaign actually outraised the Romney campaign in the apples-to-apples comparison for the month of June, $45.9 million to $33 million. And it has more campaign money in the bank as of June 30, $97 million to $22.5 million, as well as a higher burn rate, 126% to 83%. But where Team Romney outpaced Team Obama was with the RNC vs. DNC fundraising ($39.8 million to $20.5 million) and the victory fund money. Why these distinctions matter, as we’ve said before: While the campaigns control the party/victory fund money, there are limitations in how they’re able to use it. For example, coordinated party expenditures are limited to $21.7 million in this presidential contest. Overall in June, GOP presidential campaign entities (Romney camp, RNC, American Crossroads, Restore Our Future) outraised the Dem groups (Obama camp, DNC, Priorities USA Action), $99 million to $72.6 million. So again: The Obama campaign has more money directly in its control, and Romney will be the beneficiary of a lot of help from outside groups.

*** Barofsky’s complaint: Neil Barofsky, who served as the special inspector general of TARP, is out with a Bloomberg op-ed previewing his new book, and this op-ed is highly critical of the U.S. Treasury Department on a number of levels. It’s critical of Dodd-Frank but it’s also critical of the big banks. It provides fodder to both the Tea Party right and the Elizabeth Warren left. Bottom line: It’s a harsh assessment of Washington and Wall Street -- and one that is under the radar right now but gives fuel to the criticism that nothing has really changed. Barofsky, in his op-ed, seems to both be disappointed in Dodd-Frank and simultaneously worried that some of the potential teeth in Dodd-Frank won’t ever come to fruition.

*** Patchwork Nation: Between now and Election Day, we'll be taking a deeper look at our NBC/WSJ poll, as well as other data, through a prism created by journalist Dante Chinni called "Patchwork Nation." Chinni's work divides every U.S. county into 12 categories: Industrial Metropolis (think Philadelphia), College and Careers (Johnson County, IA) and Monied Burbs (Fairfax County, VA), which make up the core Democratic coalition counties; Minority Central (Wilson, NC), Immigration Nation (Maricopa, AZ), Military Bastions (Norfolk, VA) and Service Worker Stations (Richland, OH), which make up the competitive counties; and Empty Nests (Lake, FL), Boom Towns (Clark, NV), Evangelical Epicenters (Christian, MO), Tractor Country (Sioux, IA) and Mormon Outposts (Cassia, ID), which make up the core Republican coalition counties.

*** Kelly Ayotte’s VP strengths… : Ayotte is the sole female out of all of Romney’s top-tier VP possibilities (if you don’t include Condi Rice) -- and thus could potentially help him erase the gender gap he faces against Barack Obama. The latest NBC/WSJ poll found Obama leading Romney among women by 13 percentage points, 52%-39%... She’s young (44 years old), telegenic, and conservative… An early backer of Romney (she endorsed him in Nov. 2011), Ayotte has regularly campaigned for and with the former Massachusetts governor; her most recent campaign appearance with Romney took place in New Hampshire on July 20… And she hails from a key battleground state that Obama won by nearly 10 percentage points four years ago. That said, a recent NBC-Marist poll showed that adding Ayotte to the GOP ticket doesn’t really increase Romney’s poll standing in the Granite State.

*** … and weaknesses: Ayotte has been a U.S. senator for less than two years, which – fair or not – would draw comparisons to Sarah Palin, another conservative (and attractive) politician who served in major statewide office for less than two years before becoming John McCain’s VP pick… Romney (from Massachusetts) selecting Ayotte (from neighboring New Hampshire) wouldn’t give him much geographical diversity. Then again, a ticket consisting of southerners Bill Clinton (from Arkansas) and Al Gore (from Tennessee) twice won the presidency.

Countdown to GOP convention: 35 days
Countdown to Dem convention: 42 days
Countdown to Election Day: 106 days

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*** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Live coverage of the NCAA’s news conference on Penn State’s fate with NBC’s Mike Isikoff and CBS Sports college football analyst Bruce Feldman… Latest from Aurora with NBC’s Kate Snow and Chris Jansing… Former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) on the next fiscal cliff faceoff… More 2012 news with NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, the Washington Post’s Dan Balz and Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons.

*** Monday's "MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts" line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Aurora Mayor Steve Hogan, Real Clear Politics Erin McPike, Democratic Strategist Keith Boykin, and Republican Strategist Trey Hardin.

*** Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews MSNBC’s Chris Jansing and NBC’s Kate Snow (from Aurora, CO), the Brady Campaign’s Dan Gross, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, and former RNC Chair Michael Steele.

*** Monday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: Craig Melvin, filling in for Tamron Hall, interviews Michael isikoff and Michael Smerconish on Penn State punishment, Anne Kornblut and Michele Bernard on Politics of Colorado shooting

“The acrimonious presidential campaign eases back into action Monday after a weekend pause for the nation to absorb the shock of a horrific mass shooting at a Colorado movie theater,” the AP writes. “The massacre stalled a race for the White House that has become increasingly heated in recent weeks. President Barack Obama, Republican rival Mitt Romney and their advisers are now weighing how soon after the shootings to resume their attacks or whether to temper the tenor of the campaign.”

The New York Times: “President Obama came to [Aurora, CO] to meet with survivors of the shooting rampage at a movie theater last week, visiting the victims and their families and leading the country in mourning the 12 people killed in the attack. ‘Even in the darkest of days, life continues and people are strong,’ Mr. Obama said. He described sharing hugs, tears and laughs as he heard stories about loved ones lost and acts of heroism. ‘I come to them not so much as president as I do as a father and as a husband,’ he said.”

“New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Sunday called for President Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney to lead a national debate about gun control, so far a non-issue in the presidential campaign,” the Boston Globe writes. Bloomberg said: “Expressing sympathy is nice ... but somebody’s got to do something about this. And this requires, particularly in a presidential year, the candidates for president of the United States to stand up and once and for all say, yes, they feel terrible. Yes, it’s a tragedy. Yes, we have great sympathy for the families, but it’s time for this country to do something. And that’s the job of the president of the United States.”

Obama speaks before the VFW today at 3:35 pm ET in Reno, Nev. Ahead of that, he’s up with a new web video called, “Welcoming Home Our Veterans.” In it, veterans praise the president’s efforts for veterans – and cuts together clips of the president praising veterans.

“Republican opponent Mitt Romney speaks to the VFW tomorrow,” USA Today notes. “He's also preparing for a foreign trip. After the speech, Obama returns to the Bay Area for three fundraisers in Oakland. Obama again spends the night in San Francisco.”

“Shortly after last year's high-profile announcement that the 2012 Democratic National Convention would be the first in history not to rely on special-interest money, organizers in Charlotte quietly set up a nonprofit entity to rake in corporate cash,” NPR reports. “Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Duke Energy have all sent checks to New American City Inc., a non-profit entity being run by top officials on the convention host committee. Corporate money is bankrolling operations in direct support of the convention, including paying the salaries of the 41 full-time host committee employees, their health insurance and for the offices where they work.”

AP: “An onslaught of bombings and shootings killed 93 people across Iraq on Monday, officials said, in the nation's deadliest day so far this year.”

Here’s NBC’s Garrett Haake’s preview of Romney’s international trip: “An impending overseas trip lasting six days provides Mitt Romney with the opportunity to highlight his foreign policy bonafides, but is also fraught with challenges for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, reflecting the delicate nature of international diplomacy.”

On Fox News Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “I will receive Mitt Romney with the same openness that I received another presidential candidate, then-Sen. Barack Obama."

“Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is running short of political cash to spend in the weeks before the parties' nominating conventions because many of his donors have given his campaign as much as they can. However, some of Romney's most prolific donors have found another outlet for their money. Nearly 1 in 10 of the campaign's largest donors also have contributed to Restore Our Future, together giving nearly $16 million to the pro-Romney super PAC, a USA TODAY analysis of new campaign-finance reports finds. The findings highlight the parallel campaign-finance systems operating in this year's presidential election. Candidates face strict limits on what they can collect for their campaigns, even as super PACs run by their friends and former aides raise unlimited sums.”

“Mitt Romney’s plan for taxing multinational corporations would create 800,000 jobs, according to President Barack Obama. On this count, the president is wrong,” the editors of Bloomberg write. “Investment and job growth abroad don’t necessarily mean job losses in the U.S. And more importantly, Romney’s plan to tax multinational corporations only on the income they earn domestically is on the right track. Properly structured, and combined with a lower corporate- income-tax rate, a so-called territorial system could make U.S. companies more competitive, simplify the tax code, reduce compliance costs, boost real wages and enable companies to repatriate the more than $1.2 trillion they are now holding abroad for fear of the tax man.”

Ex-President George W. Bush won’t be attending the Republican National Convention in Tampa, the New York Daily News writes. “President Bush was grateful for the invitation to the Republican National Convention,” spokesman Freddy Ford said. “He supports Gov. (Mitt) Romney and wants him to succeed. President Bush is confident that Mitt Romney will be a great President. But he’s still enjoying his time off the political stage and respectfully declined the invitation to go to Tampa.”

Trying to solve the Ron Paul problem… “Ron Paul supporters have feuded with state Republican parties across the country, battling for delegate seats at the national convention, but the national party is welcoming Paul and his supporters to the event with open arms, even helping the Texas congressman organize his troops,” USA Today says. The Paul campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) have been working closely over the past few months to work out logistics in order to include the Texas congressman and his supporters in the August convention in Tampa. ‘They've just treated us like a friend and like a coalition,’ said Jesse Benton, a spokesman for the Paul campaign. ‘They have been honest brokers in working with us and treated us with respect.’”

But: “Despite this cooperation, Paul, unlike all of the other former GOP presidential contenders, has not endorsed Mitt Romney for the nomination. In an interview with the Fox Business network last week, Paul — who is no longer actively campaigning for president but has not officially suspended his bid — said he had ‘not made a decision’ whether he'll vote for Romney in November.”

The lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender newspaper Bay Windows has devoted this week’s issue to scrutinizing Mitt Romney’s record on gay rights issues, writing that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee has abandoned the LGBT community,” the Boston Globe notes. The LGBT newspaper writes: “As a Massachusetts candidate (for governor and senator), Romney presented himself as a supporter of gay and lesbian equal rights. Presidential candidate Romney, however, seems to have shed the skin of the old Romney, leaving his fundamental beliefs on fairness along the road to the White House. … Whether you are concerned or unconcerned about gay rights is not the issue. Romney’s ability to transform himself so dramatically is.”

And: “The Romney-centric edition of Bay Windows follows the launch last week of a Web campaign called “Mitt Gets Worse,” which accuses Romney of advancing an ‘extreme anti-LGBT agenda.’”

NPR’s Ken Rudin takes a look all the way back to 1964 and analyzes veep picks. As we’ve noted before Rudin also writes: “[N]ot since Jack Kennedy picked Lyndon Johnson has the choice of a running mate truly affected the outcome in November. LBJ did, after all, help bring Texas to the Democratic fold in 1960. But the record for subsequent No. 2's is a bit mixed.”

Bachmann at it again…. “Rep. Michele Bachmann has made fresh allegations of ties between a global Islamist movement and the country's first Muslim congressman, even as Bachmann's fellow Republicans condemned her statements,” USA Today writes. “Bachmann offered no evidence of ties between Ellison and the Muslim Brotherhood during the Beck interview. Bachmann's spokesman, Dan Kotman, cited a 2009 Fox News report that Ellison had a trip paid for by the Muslim American Society, a group described by an expert quoted in that report as "the de facto arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in the U.S."

The group, which is not listed among the State Department's foreign terrorist organizations, has been influential in the Arab world since the 1920s when it was founded to combat British colonial rule in Egypt.”

Political Wire: “Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) crossed party lines and gave a $250 contribution to Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-WV) re-election campaign ‘because he believes Manchin is not beholden to short-sighted political interests,’ The Hill reports. “Said Coburn: ‘I think he votes thinking about the long-term interests of the country. We don't agree on everything but he's a good guy.’”

BOSTON — An impending overseas trip lasting six days provides Mitt Romney with the opportunity to highlight his foreign policy bonafides, but is also fraught with challenges for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, reflecting the delicate nature of international diplomacy. 

Romney will set off on Wednesday for his first foreign trip since clinching the Republican nomination for president, a high-profile journey meant to highlight his differences with President Barack Obama.  But the Romney campaign says it would leave politics at the water's edge; the Republican candidate would not explicitly criticize Obama on policy while abroad.

Still, the trip, which will take Romney to three steadfast American allies: the United Kingdom, Israel and Poland, is meant to be as much of a learning experience as a political exercise.

"This trip is really an opportunity for the governor to learn and listen," Lanhee Chen, the campaign's policy director told reporters on a conference call this week. "There are a number of different challenges that the world faces today, and its an opportunity for him to visit three countries that have a strong and important relationship with the United States."

Romney will arrive in London on Wednesday for a series of meetings with British officials — including Prime Minister David Cameron, as well as former government officials like Tony Blair.

British leaders are mentioned frequently by Romney on the campaign trail; the Republican is fond of referencing a conversation he claims to have had with one of the former prime ministers, who privately stressed to Romney the importance of American strength on the world stage.

Romney also plans to attend the opening ceremonies of the 2012 Olympic Games, which are being held in London. Romney helmed the 2002 Olympics in Salt Lake City, and has been a vocal supporter of the Olympic movement since that time. The campaign hopes the stop will highlight Romney's successful tenure as CEO of the Salt Lake Olympic Committee, widely seen as one of Romney's strongest personal credentials. The candidate and his wife, Ann, are also expected to attend at least one Olympic event when the games officially open; the Romney family has a personal stake in one of the contests — a horse they own qualified for the American team in the sport of dressage.

From London, Romney will travel to Israel, where he'll meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Romney knows personally from the two men's overlapping tenure at Boston Consulting Group decades ago. Romney will also meet with Palestinian leader Salam Fayyad and will receive a briefing from the U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Daniel Shapiro. Additionally, Romney is expected to give at least one public speech in Jerusalem.

Obama's handling of Israel provides one of the sharpest areas of contrast between Romney and Obama. Romney had said over a year ago that the president threw Israel "under the bus" for his support for certain preconditions to a Middle East peace process.

Romney will conclude his trip with a two day stop in Poland, where the campaign was invited to visit by former president Lech Walesa. Romney will meet with Polish leadership, and tour sites of "historical significance" around the country, according to campaign advisers.

CHALLENGES
But the trip is fraught with a number of potential challenges and pitfalls for the presumptive GOP nominee. His campaign-trail rhetoric must take a back seat on the international stage, where American policy and rhetoric is more nuanced, and relationships with allies are delicately balanced across a spectrum of national interests.

In England, where Romney is expected to be focused primarily on the Olympics, the candidate may be tested on two issues of significant importance to the British people: Afghanistan, and austerity.

The UK has been one of the most steadfast American partners in Afghanistan since the invasion of the country in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. The UK has suffered 422 casualties in the decade since, and continued British involvement has grown unpopular over time. 

Obama's decision to set a timetable to withdraw from Afghanistan prompted sharp criticism from Romney, who has said he finds "disturbing" what he calls a lack of mission clarity in Afghanistan. But the presumptive Republican nominee has yet to detail how exactly he would differ from Obama's policy there, beyond suggesting he would heed military leaders' advice more carefully.

Domestically, Britain's struggle to enact austerity measures could prove thorny for Romney, who  has advocated similar deep and broad spending cuts in the U.S. government spending to the ones sought by Cameron's Conservative government. 

Romney's trip to Israel presents another set of challenges for the Republican, who most strike the balance between its criticism of the president and upsetting a delicate political situation in which the United States maintains a large stake. In addition to claiming the Obama administration has thrown Israel "under the bus," Romney has said the best course of action for the United States may be to "do the opposite" of what Obama has done in three years as president.

Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel in the Clinton administration and head of the foreign policy program at the Brookings institution, said that Romney may have an opportunity to gain favor with an "emotional embrace" of Israel, but will likely find little success if he were to criticize Obama's record of security assistance for Israel while in country. (The Romney campaign says that doing that would be highly unlikely.)

"On the one hand, [President Obama has] done everything possible for their security," Indyk explained of the president's hot-and-cold relationship with Israel and her leaders. "But what they really want is his love."

Israelis have been "spoiled," Indyk said in an interview with NBC News, by the last two US presidents, who both "showered affection on Israel," and have taken offense at the fact that Obama has not visited their country as president. But, Indyk argued, on the issues of paramount importance to Israelis — security and preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon — Obama's record is "impeccable."

While in Israel, Romney may also be pressed to provide more detail on his policy towards Syria, Israel's northern neighbor, which is now plagued by horrific daily violence and teetering on all-out civil war. Romney has suggested that the US take "whatever action we can" to help remove dictator Bashar Assad from power there, but Russia's role in that conflict may prove difficult for Romney to navigate in both Israel and Poland.

Russia is blocking increased international sanctions against Syria, but has joined in the U.S.-led coalition opposing the development of Iran's nuclear program. Indyk said that Israelis aren't keen on antagonizing Russians, since fears of an Iranian nuclear weapon are the most important issue to Israelis at the moment. 

And if any nation knows the challenges of dealing with Russia, a country Romney once referred to as the United States' "number one geopolitical foe," it is Poland, which suffered for decades under the Iron Curtain, and will be Romney's final stop on his foreign trip. While criticism of Russia may not play well in Israel, it may be welcome in Poland, a nation that has been cool towards the Obama administration since the president scrapped plans for a missile defense site in that country in 2009. 

CRITICISM
The Obama campaign has been quick to undermine and criticize Romney's planned foreign trip as a pale imitation of then-Sen. Obama's own foreign trip as presumptive Democratic nominee in 2008.

Indeed, the Obama foreign trip included stops in Western Europe and Israel — but also a stop in Jordan, an Arab nation, as well as in both active warzones in Iraq and Afghanistan. While Romney has visited US forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan in the past, and has traveled to the UAE, Jordan and Kuwait in previous trips, his decision to not include any such stop this time has drawn preemptive criticism.

"Obviously there are time constraints on any travel he does, particularly overseas, and we just have to make selections about where we want to focus and factor in countries he has traveled to before and this is a schedule we settled on," Dan Senor, a foreign policy adviser to the campaign told reporters last week.

The Obama team has also tried to paint Romney's trip as a photos-and-fundraising exercise, pointing to substantive policy pronouncements from then-candidate Obama on his own foreign trip, and making note of Romney's reported high-dollar fundraisers in both London and Jerusalem.

The Romney campaign says any new foreign policy specifics will come in a speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Reno the day before the trip begins, and highlights the candidate's desire to "listen and learn" on his one foreign trip this campaign cycle.

OPPORTUNITY
But the trip is not also without opportunities for the Romney campaign. As a former governor, albeit one with extensive business experience in foreign countries, Romney has little first-hand foreign policy experience. By demonstrating fluency with complex international issues and a deft touch with some of the United States' most important allies, Romney can reassure skeptics he would be a competent commander in chief. 

The Israel trip in particular also holds electoral promise for the Romney campaign.

"It can make a difference," said Indyk, the former ambassador, of a successful Romney trip to Israel. "If Romney convinces enough Jewish voters that he's going to be better than Obama it might help him win places like Florida."

Then there is, as always, the value of political theater. Can Romney look the part of commander-in-chief as he visits, as a private citizen, with top American allies?

"This trip demonstrates Governor Romney's belief in the worth and necessity of standing with our allies and locking arms with our allies, and that indeed is the common theme binding the United Kingdom, Israel and Poland," Chen, Romney's policy director, explained. "Each nation shares our love of liberty as well as the fortitude to defend it."

MINSTER, Ohio -- As President Barack Obama and chief rival Mitt Romney pumped the breaks on partisan politics today, a frontrunner believed to be on the shortlist to become the next Republican vice presidential nominee showed no signs of toning down his rhetorical attacks.

Rob Portman, widely acknowledged to be a top contender to become Romney's VP pick, critiqued the president for recently saying, "If you've got a business, you didn't build that" and accused the Obama campaign of running misleading ads. Though the Ohio senator released a written statement earlier in the day regarding the massacre in Aurora, Colo., he did not address the shooting until he received a question during a media availability Friday afternoon.

When asked if the recent violence at all sheds light on the pettiness that has recently defined the presidential race, Portman said, "It certainly shows what's really important which is our families." But he added that he was "concerned about the tenor of the Obama attacks" and that misleading ads have shown that the Obama campaign "is not worthy of the incredible problems we face as a country."

During brief remarks in Florida earlier in the day, Obama offered condolences to the families of the victims and told the crowd, "There are going to be other days for politics."

Similarly, a campaign event Romney had scheduled in New Hampshire turned into a brief statement from the presumptive Republican nominee. "Ann [Romney] and I join the president and first lady -- and all Americans -- in offering our deepest condolences to those whose lives were shattered in a few moments of evil in Colorado," he said.

The president, Vice President Joe Biden, First Lady Michele Obama and Ann Romney all canceled events on Friday. The Romney campaign also canceled planned radio interviews.

“Jane [Portman] and I join all Americans in expressing our condolences to the families and friends of those whose lives were cut short by the senseless act of violence in Colorado last night. They are in our prayers this morning, as are those victims who were injured and a community now in grief," read the statement released from Portman's office.

Portman also expressed caution about any impact the shooting at a midnight showing of "The Dark Knight Rises" should have on gun control laws. "Let's see what the situation was. I don't know what the details are. I don't think we should make it a political discussion at this point," he said.

The Buckeye State senator is spending Friday in the western part of his home state, spending time with local business leaders. 

He'll attend a fundraiser for Mitt Romney in Lima, Ohio, tonight. 

Mitt Romney's campaign raised $33 million in June, according to its Federal Election Commission filing on Friday, accounting for about a third of the $106 million Republicans had boasted raising last month.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee's haul was his largest monthly total to date, but fell well short of the $46 million raised by President Obama's campaign during the same period.

Two weeks ago, the Romney campaign boasted its Victory Committee -- a combination of the campaign, the Republican National Committee and state committees -- had raised $106 million in June. Today's finance report reflects the likelihood that this total was boosted by a large number of high-dollar contributions to Romney and his allies versus a larger number of small-dollar donations that are seen as indicative of grassroots support.

For the month of June, the Obama campaign reported receipts of almost $46 million in June, making up well over half of the $71 million it had previously announced raising jointly with the Democratic National Committee.

The Obama team spent over $58 million in June, though, with one of the largest expenses being television ads bolstering the president and criticizing Romney over his private sector career and scant release of tax records.

Likewise, the largest single expense for the Romney campaign was its advertising efforts. The campaign disclosed having spent $10.4 million dollars on so-called "placed media," FEC-speak for television and radio ad buys.

Also reflecting the advantages of raising money as an incumbent president, the Obama campaign reported having $97.5 million in the bank as of June 30. The Romney campaign ended June with $22.5 million in cash on hand.

The dueling June reports reflect a better apples-to-apples assessment of the Obama and Romney campaign's respective finances.

That said, the massive fundraising effort orchestrated by Republicans last month -- one that is likely to continue through July -- helps bring the GOP's overall mechanisms into parity with Democrats, if not somewhat of an advantage.

The Obama campaign also released on Friday the list of its bundlers through the end of the second quarter. The Romney campaign does not release the names of its bundlers.

Updated 12:53 p.m. - The shooting of moviegoers in Colorado “reminds us all of the ways that we are united as one American family,” President Barack Obama said Friday in remarks mourning the victims of the overnight massacre.

Speaking in Florida, where he cut short a campaign trip, the president led a crowd in a moment of silence and called for Americans to reflect on what he called a senseless act of violence.

“Even as we learn how this happened and who's responsible, we may never understand what leads anybody to terrorize their fellow human beings like this,” Obama said. “If there's anything to take away from this tragedy it's the reminder that life is very fragile. Our time here is limited and precious.”

Mitt Romney, speaking early Friday afternoon in New Hampshire, said: "Our hearts break with the sadness of this unspeakable tragedy. Ann and I join the president and first lady -- and all Americans -- in offering our deepest condolences to those whose lives were shattered in a few moments of evil in Colorado."

The presidential campaign was essentially put on hold after a gunman waged an assault on viewers of a midnight showing of “The Dark Knight Rises” in Aurora, east of Denver.

Slideshow: Shooting at Batman screening in Aurora, Colo.

Obama canceled a planned campaign stop for later Friday in Florida to return to the White House; Vice President Joe Biden and first lady Michelle Obama also canceled political events set for Friday afternoon. The Romney campaign canceled a planned series of radio interviews this afternoon.

“I am so moved by your support, but there are going to be other days for politics. This, I think, is a day for prayer and reflection,” the president told supporters.

Additionally, the both the Romney and Obama campaigns put a hold on airing political ads on television on Colorado for at least the weekend.

"I stand before you today not as a man running for office, but as a father and grandfather, a husband and an American," Romney said, also striking an apolitical tone in his statement. "This is a time for each of us to look into our hearts and remember how much we love one another and how much we love and how much we care for our great country."

Details from the shooting were still emerging as of late Friday morning, but White House press secretary Jay Carney said that the president was first notified of the shooting at 5:26 a.m. ET by John Brennan, his homeland security adviser. Obama called the mayor of Aurora later in the morning, and received a follow-up briefing from Brennan, White House chief of staff Jack Lew, and FBI Director Robert Mueller.

"The president orders that his administration do everything that it can to support the people of Aurora in this extraordinarily difficult time,” Carney said in a gaggle aboard Air Force One.

Mandel Ngan / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama steps off Air Force One upon arrival at Southwest Florida International Airport July 20, 2012 in Fort Myers, Florida.

Most political reaction revolved around expressing sympathies for the victims of the shooting.

"I am stunned and furious at the news of the shooting at the Aurora Century 16 Movie theatre this morning,” said Democratic Colorado Rep. Ed Perlmutter, whose district includes the site of the crime. “Colorado is not a violent place, but we have some violent people. We are a strong and resilient community, and we will lean on each other in the days, weeks and months to come.”

Few elected officials touched on the impact of the Colorado shootings on the long-simmering debate about gun control laws.

"I would say as you know the president believes we need to take common sense measures that protect the Second Amendment rights of Americans while ensuring that those who should not have guns under existing laws do not get them," Carney said when asked about the impact of the shooting on the gun debate. "We're making progress in that regard in terms of improving the volume and quality of information on background checks, but I have nothing additional on that for you. This is obviously a recent event."

One of the few exceptions to that came from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a longtime advocate for stricter gun laws.

"You know, soothing words are nice, but maybe it's time that the two people who want to be president of the United States stand up and tell us what they are going to do about it, because this is obviously a problem across the country," Bloomberg said on WOR Radio in New York. "No matter where you stand on the Second Amendment, no matter where you stand on guns, we have a right to hear from both of them concretely, not just in generalities -- specifically, what are they going to do about guns?"

Politics takes a back seat to the tragic shooting in Colorado… With so much at stake in this election, the presidential contest has been so small as of late… Latest Romney TV ad hits Obama for “you didn’t build that” remark (and it selectively edits his remarks)… And while campaigning in Florida, Obama is expected to hit back at this charge (though that was the plan before the Colorado shootings)… Looking at Battleground Florida… It appears Romney’s VP pick will come out next month… June FEC reports are due today… And breaking down John Thune’s strengths and weakness as a potential VP pick.

*** Politics takes a back seat: The tragic shooting in Colorado means that politics and the Obama-vs.-Romney presidential race will take a back seat today -- and probably throughout the weekend. President Obama, who was notified of the shooting at 5:26 am, has released this statement: “Michelle and I are shocked and saddened by the horrific and tragic shooting in Colorado. Federal and local law enforcement are still responding, and my administration will do everything that we can to support the people of Aurora in this extraordinarily difficult time…  As we do when confronted by moments of darkness and challenge, we must now come together as one American family.” Mitt Romney also released a statement: “We are praying for the families and loved ones of the victims during this time of deep shock and immense grief. We expect that the person responsible for this terrible crime will be quickly brought to justice." For now, the Romney campaign says the candidate’s schedule will go on. As for the president, his first public event is scheduled for later this morning where he’s likely to speak about the tragedy for the first time on camera.

*** Small ball: Given today’s tragic news and given that one of us just returned from a weeklong vacation, you realize just how small the presidential campaign has been of late. With so much at stake in this election -- the direction of the country’s foreign policy, the future of the social safety net, the fate of the Bush tax cuts, the direction of the U.S. Supreme Court -- we’ve seen the campaigns and political coverage focus on when, exactly, did Romney leave Bain Capital. On whether Romney will release his tax returns. Or on the charge whether the nation’s first African-American president really believes in the American Dream. That’s not to say that some of these stories aren’t important to examine (and we look at some of them today). But right now, the daily campaign back-and-forth is missing the BIGNESS of this presidential contest. And we pose this question: Will voters punish the candidates who are unable to embrace this bigness?  By the way, it isn’t just this week that the presidential race has looked small. You could pick just about any given week of this campaign THIS YEAR and say the same thing. The disconnect becomes more striking when you take a break from it, even for a few days.

*** Latest Romney ad hits Obama for “you didn’t build that” (and selectively edits his remarks): Speaking of this small ball, the Romney campaign is up with a new 30-second TV ad trying to capitalize on Obama’s “you didn’t build that remark” from last week. The ad begins with the president saying: “If you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own. If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.” But as has been pointed out by others, that quote is selectively edited. Here’s what Obama actually said, in the context of higher tax rates for the wealthy: “If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business -- you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.” Indeed, when you read those words, the “you didn’t build that” referred to roads and bridges, not someone building their own business.  

*** And Obama will push back on this charge: That said, the Obama campaign seems to realize this line of attack -- no matter how out of context -- could be a problem, and they’re going to walk back the comment (they are calling it) “fight back” during his campaign appearances in Florida today (Ft. Myers at 11:20 am ET and Winter Park at 4:10 pm ). NBC’s Kristen Welker reports that, according to a campaign official, Obama is expected to “counterpunch” this Romney charge. “As he has many times before, the president will talk about his longtime belief in the drive and ingenuity of the American worker and his ongoing commitment to ensuring entrepreneurs and small businesses have the tools they need to succeed,” the campaign official says. “He will also highlight how Mitt Romney's economic agenda would be devastating for small businesses.” Of course, all this was planned PRE-Aurora. Don’t be surprised if the attack or counterpunch gets pulled today.

*** Battleground Florida: Given Obama’s campaign events in the Sunshine State, it’s worth noting how Florida is the battleground no one can get their heads around the state. And the campaigns are clearly struggling to get their arms around it, too. With the state’s economy and its housing market, the state shouldn’t even be on the table for the president. But its demographics – as well as some parts of the state that have recovered well – show why the polls have it as a toss-up. One more thing to consider about Florida: Its voters traditionally don’t get engaged in a campaign until VERY LATE in the process so this will be a state that is likely to get a LOT more attention in September and October.

*** It looks like Romney’s VP pick will come next month: If Mitt Romney doesn’t announce his vice-presidential pick today, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll do it before he departs on his overseas trip in the middle of next week. Why? Because there wouldn’t be enough time to do a multi-day, multi-battleground state rollout with the new ticket. What’s more, the VP selection would overshadow -- at least domestically -- the upcoming foreign trip. And so far, the signs aren’t pointing to Romney making his VP pick today. He’s holding a campaign event in New Hampshire at 12:10 pm ET (with Sen. Kelly Ayotte). But wife Ann is campaigning around that very same time in Michigan. You would think that if Romney were unveiling his vice-presidential selection, his wife would be there for that announcement. And even if the campaign wanted to do it today, the tragic news out of Colorado probably ends those plans. Bottom line: Romney most likely isn’t making his pick today, and therefore he most likely won’t announce it until returning from his overseas trip.

*** FEC reports are due today: Today is July 20, which means that the June fundraising reports by the candidates, national parties, and Super PACs are due to the Federal Election Commission by midnight. And once those reports are in, we’ll get to see the cash-on-hand numbers, the burn rates, and the actual apples-to-apples fundraising comparisons between the Obama and Romney camps. In fact, as we’ve pointed out before, don’t be surprised if the Obama campaign actually outraised the Romney campaign in June. Where Team Romney probably made up the difference -- and more -- is with the RNC vs. DNC and victory fund vs. victory fund fundraising. Even though the presidential campaigns control the party/victory fund money, the distinctions matters because party/victory fund money come with strings attached.

*** More on Romney and Bain: The Boston Globe today takes a deep look at Romney’s departure (sort of) from Bain Capital. “Shortly after Mitt Romney took a leave of absence from Bain Capital to run the Olympics in February 1999, he made a trip to Palm Beach, Fla… Romney and his partners had decided that, in his absence, five managing directors would oversee the company. And in Palm Beach it became clearer that Romney was unlikely to return — but would retain his title as chief executive officer and sole shareholder… Interviews with a half-dozen of Romney’s former partners and associates, as well as public records, show that he was not merely an absentee owner during this period. He signed dozens of company documents, including filings with regulators on a vast array of Bain’s investment entities. And he drove the complex negotiations over his own large severance package, a deal that was critical to the firm’s future without him, according to his former associates. Indeed, by remaining CEO and sole shareholder, Romney held on to his leverage in the talks that resulted in his generous 10-year retirement package, according to former associates.”

*** John Thune’s strengths… : Just like Romney, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) looks the part -- he’s handsome and telegenic… He also could help with evangelicals, and he’s revered in conservative circles for defeating then-Democratic Senate leader Tom Daschle… He was an early Romney endorser, giving his support in Iowa, which borders South Dakota, in hopes of helping Romney in the caucuses.

*** … and his weaknesses: Thune wouldn’t give Romney a geographical advantage; South Dakota is solid Republican (although, as mentioned above, it borders Iowa)…  He’s a former lobbyist, and that past work could play directly into Obama attacks…. He also voted for TARP in 2008, which wouldn’t please the conservative/Tea Party base… And this might contradict GOP fiscal debt/deficit message: Thune was named "Porker of the Month" by a watchdog group in Nov. 2006. 

Countdown to GOP convention: 38 days
Countdown to Dem convention: 45 days

Countdown to Election Day: 109 days

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USA Today: “Less than four months until Election Day, the battle for the White House already has crossed the $1 billion mark — as the presidential candidates, political parties and the two super PACs closely aligned with President Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney race to collect political cash.”

“Democrats have found one bright spot in this campaign season's financial books: the fight for Congress,” the Wall Street Journal writes. “While the party worries about the fundraising prowess of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's campaign, as well as the financial might of conservative super PACs, the Democrats' House campaign arm is ahead of its GOP counterpart.”

But, Roll Call writes: “The National Republican Congressional Committee narrowly outraised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in June. The NRCC posted $10.7 million in receipts compared with the DCCC’s $10.5 million. The NRCC ended June with $41 million in cash on hand while the DCCC had $33.2 million in the bank at the end of last month.”

Analyzing recent polls, including the NBC/WSJ survey, National Journal’s Ron Brownstein looks at the undecided voters, and he finds that they don’t like either Obama or Romney. “Both President Obama and Mitt Romney are facing resoundingly negative attitudes among the small share of uncommitted voters who could tip their battle for the White House…  It’s not unusual for most undecided voters to hold negative views about an incumbent; it is unusual for undecided voters to simultaneously express negative attitudes about the challenger. In most respects, undecided voters displayed more favorable attitudes toward their choices in both the 2004 and 2008 races, polls at the time found. ‘One might think that undecided voters would typically be down on both candidates,’ says Michael Dimock, associate director of the nonpartisan Pew Research Center. ‘That makes 2012 stand out all the more, perhaps reflecting the bad economic conditions.’”

And John Harwood writes about his own appearance (and the appearance of other journalists) in TV ads. 

The AP on Obama’s Florida stop yesterday: “Wooing Florida voters, President Barack Obama warned Thursday that Republican challenger Mitt Romney would gut his health care reform law and turn Medicare into a voucher program, driving up costs for the elderly on fixed incomes. Romney, firing away near his Boston home base, accused Obama of caring only about saving his own job -- not the jobs of Americans. In the daily war of words in an up-for-grabs presidential contest, health care politics took top billing as Obama opened two days of campaigning in Florida, the largest and most coveted of the nation's Election Day toss-up states.”

Right before Romney’s trip abroad, David Brooks writes: “It won’t help him win many votes this year, but it should be noted that Barack Obama has been a good foreign policy president.”

“The Democratic National Committee is reining in a planned series of videos using Ann Romney’s dressage hobby to mock her husband after a reminder it is related to her multiple sclerosis therapy,” the New York Daily News writes. 

The Boston Globe clarifies Romney’s role at Bain after 1999: “Shortly after Mitt Romney took a leave of absence from Bain Capital to run the Olympics in February 1999, he made a trip to Palm Beach, Fla. The firm Romney founded was meeting to celebrate its 15th anniversary as well as the men he had helped make extraordinarily wealthy. Romney and his partners had decided that, in his absence, five managing directors would oversee the company. And in Palm Beach it became clearer that Romney was unlikely to return — but would retain his title as chief executive officer and sole shareholder. The Palm Beach meeting, which has not been previously reported, demonstrates the duality of Romney’s role as he parted ways with Bain, an issue that has sparked controversy in his presidential campaign.

“Romney has said in financial disclosure statements that he ‘was not involved in the operations of any Bain Capital entity in any way’ after Feb. 11, 1999. But he was still legally the CEO, with numerous duties and obligations that were his alone, until early 2002. Interviews with a half-dozen of Romney’s former partners and associates, as well as public records, show that he was not merely an absentee owner during this period. He signed dozens of company documents, including filings with regulators on a vast array of Bain’s investment entities. And he drove the complex negotiations over his own large severance package, a deal that was critical to the firm’s future without him, according to his former associates. Indeed, by remaining CEO and sole shareholder, Romney held on to his leverage in the talks that resulted in his generous 10-year retirement package, according to former associates.”

Reuters: “Mitt Romney has secrets. Lots of them, perhaps. That provocative claim is at the core of President Barack Obama's latest attacks on his Republican rival, a strategy that is dominating the narrative of the presidential campaign and leading anxious Republicans to question Romney's tactics. In ads, interviews and social-media blasts, the Democratic president's team is casting Romney as a mysterious figure who is guarding important secrets about his wealth and work history.”

In fact, The Atlantic lists 10 things he might be hiding in his tax returns. (H/t Political Wire.)

What does Bill Clinton’s underwear have to do with Mitt Romney not releasing his taxes? Peggy Noonan reveals.

Rupert Murdoch likes the new Romney.

Paul Krugman: “Businesses aren’t investing, they say, because business leaders don’t feel valued. Mr. Romney repeated this line, too, arguing that because the president attacks success ‘we have less success.’ This, too, is crazy (and it’s disturbing that Mr. Romney appears to share this delusional view about what ails our economy).”

Just to be clear, private equity is not venture capitalism, got it? “When staffers at the National Venture Capital Association see a report that refers to U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney's investments as venture capital, they grimace -- and then contact the author to explain politely why it's wrong,” Reuters writes. “The Republican White House hopeful was head of Bain Capital LLC, which does the bulk of its work in private equity and not venture capital, the NVCA would clarify. Venture capital backs companies from their earliest days, and some go on to create thousands of jobs; private equity typically comes in at later stages to turn around underperforming companies, sometimes via job cuts and other unpopular cost-savings moves.”

Watch Peter Alexander play word association with the five Romney sons. Here Peter asks why they didn’t want their dad to run this time, and here they talk about their dad’s sometimes awkward phrasing.

The Globe on Romney’s event yesterday: “Mitt Romney, speaking this afternoon in Roxbury, accused President Obama of misunderstanding the nature of American entrepreneurship by suggesting that government assistance plays an equal role as hard work in creating small businesses.”

“The Republican candidate’s wife revealed in an interview set to air Thursday that he has not yet made a final decision about his running mate,” the New York Daily News writes. She said yesterday, “We are certainly talking a lot. This last week, this last weekend, there was a lot of discussion. We're not quite there yet. And we're going to be there soon.”

AYOTTE: “Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is closing out a week of active campaigning with another battleground state visit today, appearing at a New Hampshire specialty lumber supplier with prospective running mate Kelly Ayotte,” the Boston Globe writes, adding, “While Ayotte’s announced appearance with Romney would eliminate an element of surprise were he to reveal today that she is his choice for running mate, campaign aides have also described possible decoys or ruses to conceal his pick until the final moment.”

PAWLENTY: He’ll be at an ice cream social in New Hampshire Aug. 11.

PORTMAN: “There's little question that the Republican presidential nominee and Ohio senator have a lot in common,” USA Today writes. “But whether a Romney-Portman ticket would double-down on the stiff, rich, aloof image Romney that is already battling — or the smart, clean, competent message he's trying to project — remains uncertain. What is clear: Portman has emerged as a front-runner in the vice presidential sweepstakes — and part of the reason for that is he has established an easy, dynamic relationship with the former Massachusetts governor.”

Check this out: “At the height of campaign season, and while under extra scrutiny as a potential vice presidential pick, Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is on a quixotic bid to reform how the miscellaneous tariff bill is crafted,” Roll Call reports. “In the process, he’s going against the Republican Ways and Means Committee chairman — a close friend, as it happens — while giving bipartisan cover to a vulnerable Democratic Senator.”

RICE: “Some GOP voters say Condoleezza Rice is a game changer,” the New York Daily News writes. “Three in 10 Republicans rank the former U.S. secretary of state as their top choice to be Mitt Romney's running mate - far outpacing Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (19 percent), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (8 percent) and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan (8 percent), according to a Fox News Poll released Wednesday.”

The Obama campaign has posted a web video responding to the Romney campaign's, which went up this morning.

Here was the Romney campaign's today, which we reported on earlier:

When it comes to the past four presidential elections, which candidate was described as having better judgment in a crisis?

Being willing to take an unpopular stand?

What about getting things done?

Being honest and truthful?

Or simply being able to better connect with ordinary Americans?

Well, the Pew Research Center has been measuring these fives personal traits in the major general-election candidates since 2000. The findings: In 2000, George W. Bush rated higher than Al Gore on all five traits -- from a 14-point lead on willing to take an unpopular stance (46%-32%), to a one-point lead on connecting with ordinary Americans (40%-39%).

In 2004, Bush bested John Kerry on good judgment in a crisis (47%-35%), getting things done (49%-30%), and taking an unpopular stand (65%-23%). But Kerry beat Bush by two points on being honest and truthful (36%-34%). (Note: Connecting with ordinary Americans wasn't included on this trait list in '04. )

In 2008, even though he lost the presidential election, John McCain scored higher than Barack Obama in three of the five categories -- on using good judgment in a crisis (47%-38%), on being willing to take an unpopular stand (44%-41%), and on being honest and truthful (37%-36%).

But by 32 percentage points, Obama was rated higher in being able to connect with ordinary Americans (58%-26%). He also beat McCain in being able to get things done (43%-37%).

So where do things stand in this 2012 race? According to Pew, President Obama is rated higher than Mitt Romney in every category -- and it's not even close on most of them.

With the exception of getting things done (where the president leads 41%-39%), Obama is ahead of Romney by double digits. On connecting with ordinary Americans, it's 59%-28%; on taking an unpopular stand, 54%-35%; on being honest and truthful, 46%-32%; and on good judgment in a crisis, 50%-37%.

Updated 2:41 p.m. - Most Americans say Mitt Romney should release more of his tax returns, according to a new poll released Thursday.

Fifty-four percent of Americans said in a USA Today/Gallup poll that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee should release additional years of tax records beyond the 2010 returns he's already released and the 2011 filing Romney has pledged to make public before the election. Thirty-seven percent of adults said Romney should not have to release more tax records.

The Obama campaign has sought to make Romney's taxes an issue in the campaign, going so far as to suggest that, in the absence of evidence, it's possible that the former Bain Capital executive might not have had to pay any taxes in a given year.

Evan Vucci / AP

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gestures during a campaign stop on Wednesday, July 18, 2012 in Bowling Green, Ohio. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The Romney campaign has rejected that charge, and has refused to budge in its stance against releasing more tax returns. Doing that, Romney has said, would provide Democrats with more opposition research fodder.

"We've given all you people need to know and understand about our financial situation and about how we live our life. And so, the election, again, will not be decided on that," Ann Romney said of the tax returns on "Good Morning America."

Still, Republicans and conservative media outlets, fearing the collateral damage from the candidate's refusal, have joined the chorus calling for Romney to release his returns.

To that end, 30 percent of Republicans in the USA Today/Gallup survey said Romney should release his returns; 53 percent of independents want to see more of Romney's records.

The poll was conducted July 18 and has a 5 percent margin of error.

A series of polls released late Wednesday made clear that the economy remains the most constant and influential variable in the 2012 presidential campaign, helping to explain the strategies and posture of both Mitt Romney and President Obama.

Though Romney has been besieged by millions in negative ads questioning his tenure at Bain Capital and whether he should release more tax returns, the presumptive Republican nominee remains basically even versus the president in polls. The reason? Three new polls suggest that voters' optimism about the state of the economy has slid, making Obama more vulnerable to efforts that seek to turn the campaign into a referendum on his economic management.

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

Thirty-nine percent of registered voters said in the New York Times/CBS poll released yesterday that they approve of Obama's handling of the economy, versus 55 percent who disapprove. As a matter of comparison, voters disapproved of Obama's economic management by a tighter margin — 44 percent approving, 48 percent disapproving — in the April version of the same poll.

First Thoughts: Obama-Romney race remains deadlocked

A separate poll conducted for NPR also found that voters disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, a margin that widens among voters surveyed in 12 battleground states. In those states, 52 percent said they disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy, versus 45 percent who approve.

"The economy is the albatross around the president’s neck. The Romney people are smart in focusing on the economy, because that is the softest point in the president’s campaign," said Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons. "They’re running a campaign based on the issue of the economy, not based on who you should trust with the economy. Those are two different questions – closely related – but different questions."

The past three months has seen a series of lackluster monthly jobs reports, and no real dent has been made in the unemployment rate. Though these figures don't entirely explain the souring public mood toward the economy, they suggest that the economy remains an albatross for Obama — one that has weighed more heavily on the Democratic president as the think of the campaign has onset.

Obama had opened up a lead over Romney earlier this year in the aftermath of a bruising Republican primary and four straight jobs reports showing that the economy had added jobs to the tune of six figures each month. What changed? In April, May and June, the economy added 68,000, 77,000 and 80,000 jobs respectively.

Presented with those figures in the June NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 52 percent of Americans said those numbers weren't a reason for optimism.

And as if to underscore the point, the CBS/NYT poll found that a full 93 percent of voters said they thought the economy and unemployment were either an extremely or very important issue in this election.

The jobs report and its impact on the unemployment rate aren't the sole factor in evolving political opinion. Romney has spent much of his time on the campaign trail assailing the president's management of the economy, and beyond that, Obama has introduced few initiatives to improve the jobs situation aside from the defunct American Jobs Act he first proposed last summer. Moreover, Republicans gleefully pointed on Wednesday to the fact that the jobs council Obama himself empaneled hasn't met in 6 months.

But a Fox News poll contained one of the starkest reversals in Obama's numbers, adding to the evidence that voters have soured in recent months.

Thirty-seven percent of registered voters in that poll said that Obama has made the economy better as a product of his policies, and 49 percent says he's made it worse. In March, voters slightly favored Obama in the same poll, 44-42 percent. A 2-point margin for the president turned into a 12-point margin just four months.

Nonetheless, the race remains largely deadlocked.

Romney leads Obama 47 to 46 percent among registered voters in the NYT/CBS. Obama leads 45-41 percent in a Fox News poll, and he leads 47-45 percent in the NPR poll. (NPR's battleground state sample found Romney and Obama tied, at 46 percent apiece.)

It's tough to imagine, though, a scenario in which Obama could do much to dramatically redirect the trajectory of the economy. And voters' perception about the economy is likely to harden by the end of the summer, if history is any guide.

It explains the Romney campaign's zen-like handling of the questioning -- even from conservatives -- of its strategy. The Republican's campaign has long regarded discussing anything but the economy as mostly a distraction, keeping its focus squarely on Obama's economic record in hopes of transforming the campaign into a referendum on just that.

It also helps to distill the Obama campaign's need to go on offense versus Romney, looking to poison swing state voters on Romney's chief qualification as a turnaround expert and experienced businessman.

But the NYT/CBS poll contained one of the bleakest numbers for Obama. Fully 45 percent of registered voters said his policies are not improving the economy, and probably never will.

And in an election in which the economy is the top issues, that sort of bleakness could prove to be Romney's greatest advantage.

The NYT/CBS poll was conducted July 11-16 and has a three percent margin of error.

The NPR poll was conducted July 9-12 by Democratic pollster Democracy Corps and Republican pollster Resurgent Republic. It has a 3.1 percent margin of error for all voters, and a 4.56 percent margin of error for the sample of voters in battleground states.

The Fox News poll was conducted July 15-17 by Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research and Republican pollster Shaw & Company research; it has a three percent margin of error.