For President Obama and Democrats, the politics of health-care reform haven't been pretty.

Not only do polls still show that more Americans believe the overall health-care law passed in 2010 is a bad idea than good idea, Democrats paid a deep price for passing the reform.

In the '10 midterms -- waged over the health-care law, the stimulus, and the state of the economy -- Republicans picked up 63 House seats, six Senate seats, and several governor's mansions. It was a rout.

But the early significance of today's 5-4 Supreme Court decision upholding the health-care law is that political price wasn't in vain.

Make no mistake: The Supreme Court overturning the health-care would have been a body blow for the president and his party. All the negotiations, the arm-twisting, the speeches, and the compromises would have been for naught. 

For Obama, his chief domestic achievement -- the biggest since the LBJ years -- is upheld.

For congressional Democrats -- even those who were ousted in 2010 -- they have a major legislative accomplishment to tout.

How the Supreme Court's health-care decision plays out in the 2012 presidential election remains a mystery. It could energize conservatives angered by the ruling. It could fire up Democratic voters. Or it could, as our NBC/WSJ co-pollsters have suggested, actually change public opinion about the health-care law.

It's also unclear if the legislation, in the long run, ends up bending health care's cost curve (as Democrats claim it will), or if it ends up raising premiums and costs (as Republicans claim).

But here's what we can say: The court's ruling today -- by a narrow 5-4 decision -- preserves Democrats' domestic-policy achievement for the history books.

Updated 12:57 p.m. - President Barack Obama hailed a Supreme Court opinion upholding his signature health reform law as "a victory for people all over this country," as Mitt Romney led galvanized conservatives in vowing to seek the legislation's repeal.

The political stakes imbued in the high court's 5-4 ruling allowing the Affordable Care Act to stand were starkly evident by midday Thursday in Washington, as Obama and Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, laid out clearly different visions when it came to the law, "Obamacare."

The opinion, written by Chief Justice John Roberts, who joined the court's liberals, determined that the act's individual mandate -- the requirement that individuals purchase health insurance, or face a penalty -- was constitutional as a tax.

"I know there will be a lot of discussion today about the politics of all this, about who won and who lost," Obama said in remarks at the White House, in which he emphasized many of the law's benefits. "That discussion completely misses the point. Whatever the politics, today's decision was a victory for people all over this country whose lives are more secure because of this law and the Supreme Court's decision to uphold it."

Related: Supreme Court upholds health care law

A few minutes earlier, Romney renewed his promise to seek the full repeal of the law from his first day in office.

"What the court did not do on the last day of its session I will do on my first day as president," Romney said. He called the court's opinion both bad law and bad policy.

Each candidate's comments underscored, though, the political dividing lines that will shape the battle for control of the White House and Congress this November.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif. relays the breaking news to her staff that the Supreme Court had just upheld the Affordable Care Act, June 28 on Capitol Hill.

For Obama and Democrats, the decision represented an unmitigated victory after he had championed passage of the law at considerable political expense.

And for Romney, the decision is poised to mobilize conservatives who have, at times, been less than enthusiastic about his candidacy. A number of Republicans' statements in reaction to the ruling emphasized the need to defeat Obama this fall. As a token of that enthusiasm for Romney, his campaign's aides boasted of raising hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations after the decision was handed down.

"This is now a time for the American people to make a choice," Romney said in remarks to reporters in downtown Washington. "Our mission is clear" -- if we want to get rid of Obamacare, we're going to have to replace President Obama."

The president treated the Affordable Care Act as a settled matter, now that the court has ruled. He urged the country to move forward.

"The highest court in the land has now spoken. We will continue to implement this law, and we'll work together to improve upon it where we can," Obama said. "But what we won't do -- and what the country can't afford to do -- is re-fight the political battles of two years ago, or go back to the way things were."

But already, House Republicans have scheduled a vote to repeal the law for July 11. They have made similar attempts in the past, but their legislation has failed in the Senate, where a supermajority of 60 votes is needed to advance legislation.

"Today's ruling underscores the urgency of repealing this harmful law in its entirety," said House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) in a statement. "Republicans stand ready to work with a president who will listen to the people and will not repeat the mistakes that gave our country Obamacare."

Vote now: Do you agree with Supreme Court ruling on health care law?

Democrats, though, were jubilant. Many liberals had been bracing for defeat in front of the Supreme Court after the conservative jurists aggressively questioned Obama administration lawyers in oral arguments earlier this year.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) helped shepherd the law to passage in the House as speaker in spring of 2010; Democrats lost control of the chamber in that fall's midterm elections, in part due to Republican-driven fury toward the health reform law.

"In passing health reform, we made history for our nation and progress for the American people," she said in a statement. "Today, the Supreme Court affirmed our progress and protected that right, securing a future of health and economic security for the middle class and for every American."

Democratic aides on Capitol Hill said that Pelosi this morning called Vicki Kennedy, the widow of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA), a longtime champion of health reform.

"Now, Teddy can rest," Pelosi told Kennedy.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), speaking on the Senate floor, said he was "pleased to see the Supreme Court put the rule of law ahead of partisanship."

It was difficult, hours after the opinion was issued, to discern how the day's news would affect the long arc of the presidential campaign.

Romney has mostly focused his criticism of Obama on the anemic state of the economy; the health reform law Romney had signed as governor of Massachusetts also included an individual mandate. (Obama, in his remarks, took a shot at Romney, noting that many political figures had supported that provision, "including the current Republican nominee for president.")

But while the Supreme Court's opinion lets stand the Affordable Care Act, the law still invites intense political reaction from voters, and it's likely to remain as a central issue in the electoral battle for the presidency and control of Congress.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released earlier this week found that 37 percent of Americans said they would be pleased if the court struck down the law, while 22 percent would be disappointed.

And more Americans -- 41 percent -- said they thought the law was a bad idea, versus 35 percent who said it was a good plan.

The Supreme Court has upheld the healthcare law, upholding the individual under the taxing authority of congress, not the commerce clause.

It was indeed a 5-4 decision, but with Chief Justice Roberts voting with the liberal majority.

Watch NBC's live analysis and coverage here.

*** UPDATE *** Here's the court's entire opinion.

*** UPDATE 2 *** President Obama is expected to speak from the White House at 12:15 pm ET.

*** UPDATE 3 *** We expect to hear from Mitt Romney at 11:45 pm ET.

Decision Day on Obama’s health-care law… Both Obama and Romney are in DC today… New NBC-Marist polls: Michigan: Obama 47%, Romney 43%; North Carolina: Obama 46%, Romney 44%; New Hampshire: Obama 45%, Romney 45%... Who is doing a better job of defining Bain -- Romney or his opponents?... And speaking of, a new Priorities USA ad hits Romney on the topic.

Saul Loeb / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama waves alongside lawmakers after signing the healthcare insurance reform legislation during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House, March 23, 2010.

*** Decision Day: “This is a big f-ing deal.” That’s what Vice President Biden said about the health-care legislation that President Obama was about to sign into law in March of 2010. But the same could be said -- more than two years later -- about today’s upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision on that very same law. At stake is Obama’s top domestic policy achievement, something that Democrats have been pursuing since the Truman days and something that the party paid a high price for in the 2010 midterms. Republicans also have something at stake here: Despite all their resistance, the Tea Party rallies, and the court challenges, is it possible that they come up empty-handed? And, of course, today’s decision will have repercussions in the 2012 presidential contest. The decision comes after 10:00 am ET, so fasten your seatbelts…

*** Obama’s and Romney’s whereabouts: As for the two principal actors in the presidential race, both will be in DC. We can report that if the U.S. Supreme Court finds the health-care law constitutional, Obama will comment from the White House fairly soon after the decision. But if it’s unconstitutional -- or if the ruling is a mixed bag -- reaction from Obama could come later in the day. Meanwhile, we’re also expecting that Romney will make his comment in the nation’s capital, too.

*** A reminder: The ruling might not come at 10:00 am sharp: NBC’s Pete Williams issues this guidance on the Supreme Court’s health-care ruling: The decision might not be right at 10:00 am ET. The court, Williams says, also has two other decisions to issue today -- a challenge to a recently passed federal law that makes it a crime to lie about receiving a military honor and a case involving who can sue over certain real estate transactions. The justices announce their decisions in reverse order of seniority, starting with the most junior and moving up to the most senior. So Williams says it's possible we could get the health care decision right at 10:00 am ET, but it's also possible that we'll have to wait for the court to hand down the other two first.

*** A tight race per three new battleground state polls: In advance of the Supreme Court decision -- and also in advance today’s contempt of Congress vote on Attorney General Eric Holder -- we have some new polling data to chew on. According to a new round of NBC-Marist polls, Obama and Romney are running almost neck-and-neck in three swing states whose place in the battleground is in some dispute between the two campaigns. Our polls find Obama holding a slight advantage in Michigan and North Carolina and with the two candidates tied in New Hampshire. In Michigan, Obama is ahead by four percentage points among registered voters, including those undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 47%-43%. (The closeness here could be reflective of the fact the Obama campaign hasn’t spent any money in this state while outside GOP groups have.)  In North Carolina, the president gets 46% to Romney’s 44%, which is within the survey’s margin of error. And in New Hampshire, the two men are tied at 45% each.

*** But is Obama stronger in those states than the head-to-heads suggest? When you look at the other data in the polls, you see that Obama might be in a stronger position than those head-to-head numbers suggest in two of the states. In Michigan, Obama’s approval is 48%-42% and his fav/unfav is 51%-41%, while Romney’s fav/unfav in his native state is just 37%-43%. In New Hampshire, the president’s approval is 47%-45% and his fav/unfav is 50%-44%, versus Romney’s 45%-45% fav/unfav. In North Carolina, it’s a jump ball no matter how you look at it. Obama’s approval is 47%-47% and his fav/unfav is 48%-45%, while Romney’s fav/unfav is 45%-45%. And we’ll say this about North Carolina, which Obama won by just 14,000 votes in 2008: All the polling we’ve seen in the Tar Heel State suggests he has a high floor. We’re not sure if he can get to 50% there, but he’s going to be in high 40s.

*** November Bain: Yesterday, the Romney campaign met with Washington Post editors demanding a retraction from its story last week noting that Bain Capital, under Romney’s leadership, invested in companies that outsourced jobs to China and India. The Washington Post isn’t retracting the story. (The Romney folks have released the PowerPoint they had put together for the Post to the public.) But here’s a question to ponder in all of this: Who has done a better job of defining Bain so far -- Romney or his opponents? Indeed, earlier this year, it was Newt Gingrich who was defining Bain. And now it’s the Obama campaign and the news media. Romney does have a good story to tell here (Staples, Sports Authority), but the campaign has yet to air a single paid TV ad in this general election touting that story. If Romney ends up losing this presidential election, we might all look back and see Romney’s inability to define his work at Bain -- which he’s touting as his chief credential in this presidential contest -- as his undoing. Oh, and there’s a reason why Romney is challenging the Post: being portrayed as an outsourcer-in-chief is potentially MUCH MORE damaging than saying “the public sector is doing fine,” especially in those Midwest swing states. 

*** Another hit on Bain: And speaking of defining Bain, the pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action is up with another TV ad on the topic. “Romney bought companies, drowned them in debt,” the narrator states in the ad. “Many went bankrupt; thousands of workers lost jobs, benefits and pensions. But for every company he drove into the ground, Romney averaged a $92 million dollar profit. Now he says his business experience would make him a good President?” The ad -- which will air in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia -- concludes: “If Romney wins, the middle class loses.”

Countdown to GOP convention: 60 days
Countdown to Dem convention: 67 days
Countdown to Election Day: 131 days

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*** Thursday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), a former state attorney general who’s argued before SCOTUS and one of only two current senators who clerked there, on expectations for today’s decision… Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO), the Capitol Hill liaison for the Romney campaign, on how Republicans may react to the different possible decisions… Marist’s Lee Miringoff with more on the new NBC/Marist polls of swing states North Carolina, New Hampshire and Michigan… NBC’s Pete Williams with the latest from the SCOTUS steps… NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell with more on today’s planned contempt vote on Atty. Gen. Holder in the House… More 2012 headlines and a SCOTUS countdown with Politico’s Lois Romano, Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons and former Bush 43 White House aide and current Indiana GOP spokesman Pete Seat.

*** Thursday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: The program will have breaking news of the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision.

*** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Ed Schultz, Melissa Harris Perry, RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer, Representative Chris Van Hollen and SCOTUSBlog’s Tom Goldstein.

*** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include former Clinton WH Chief of Staff and Center for American Progress President John Podesta, former adviser to President George W. Bush Mark McKinnon, former Clinton WH Press Secretary Dee Dee Myers, former RNC Chair Michael Steele, the New York Times’ Jodi Kantor, Mother Jones Washington Bureau Chief David Corn, NBC News Chief Legal Correspondent Savannah Guthrie, and MSNBC’s Chris Matthews & Lawrence O’Donnell.

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews NBC’s Pete Williams, NBC’s Chuck Todd, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA), Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA), Bioethicist Zeke Emanuel, and New York Magazine’s John Heilemann.

*** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews MSNBC’s Chris Hayes, Michael Smerconish, Time’s Michael Crowley, Kenji Yoshino and Newsweek’s Zachary Karabell.

The New York Daily News: “It is D-Day for Obamacare — and hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers will lose benefits if the Supreme Court strikes down all of the divisive health care law.”

AP: “Supreme Court health care ruling on tap: Who wins, who loses, who pays?”

And the AP makes this point: “They've known the outcome for three months. Now it's time for the nine Supreme Court justices to share it with the world.”

And another AP piece looks at how the states might deal with whatever the decision might be: “As the nation awaits the Supreme Court ruling on President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, states across the country are considering how they will respond to the historic decision. Some Democratic-led states vow to push ahead with various provisions no matter what happens. In some Republican territories, elected officials insist they will try to hold off on implementing the law, even if the court upholds it. And most states are bound to miss key deadlines if the law or even pieces of it survive.”

“So much for recovery summer,” the New York Post writes. “Vice President Joe Biden yesterday declared that the economy is in a full-blown ‘depression’ for millions of Americans.”

Biden said in Iowa yesterday: “The unemployed are in real trouble. My grandpa used to say — he’s from Scranton — he’d say, ‘Joey, when the guy in Dunmore — the next town over — when the guy in Dunmore’s out of work it’s an economic slowdown. When your brother-in-law’s out of work, it’s a recession. When you’re out of work, it’s a depression. … It’s a depression for millions and millions of Americans. It’s a depression.”

Caroline Kennedy campaigned for Obama in New Hampshire last night.

Former gossip writer Lloyd Grove on Romney’s event in Virginia yesterday… Hundreds of voters—the great majority of them white, and a good many of them white-haired—were baking and reddening on the boiling asphalt Tuesday afternoon outside the headquarters of EIT LLC, a medical electronics instrument manufacturer in Sterling, Va., waiting for the Secret Service to process them through the magnetometers so they could cheer for the Republican nominee-designate. Indeed, so many neatly dressed, well-behaved Mitt Romney supporters showed up—something over 500—that a fastidious fire marshal decreed that dozens would not be admitted into the cavernous, air-conditioned company warehouse where the putative future president was to speak, and instead had them stand in the sweltering sun to listen over the public address system. Which they did. Happily. Virginia might be a toss-up state—whose 13 electoral votes were carried handily by Barack Obama and Joe Biden last time around—but this prosperous corner of Loudon County, a short drive from Washington, D.C., seemed, at least for the moment, like Romney country.”

The kicker: “ ‘I was really impressed,’ said Ed Rager, a 67-year-old former human-resources executive who retired from Mobil Oil before the merger with Exxon. ‘I liked what he had to say about college grads who can’t find jobs and the national debt. I feel like we really have a leader. I’m fired up.’ And ready to go? ‘I don’t think I’d put it that way.’”

“A representative for Donald Trump says that the reality television star will host a $50,000-a-head fundraiser with Mitt Romney this week. But the Romney campaign isn’t so sure,” the Washington Post reported Tuesday about today’s fundraiser. “The presumptive Republican presidential candidate’s campaign reported Tuesday afternoon there would be no meeting with Trump this week. Minutes later, the Trump representative confirmed the event, which is expected to bring at least 50 people paying $50,000 each to the home of stock investor Martin Zweig in Manhattan’s Pierre Hotel.”

MONEY & VPs....National Journal looks the intersection between K Street and Cap Hill when it comes to the VP shortlist.

The Bain Game: Could the Obama campaign’s attacks on Romney outsourcing have an impact on the VP search? Yes, according to The Hill: “The Midwest and its perpetual angst over outsourced jobs would become ground zero in the presidential race, thus creating the demand for a running mate who could connect with Rust Belt residents and provide a counterbalance to Romney’s image as a wealthy executive — much as Vice President Biden is seen as a blue-collar offset to Obama’s professorial image.”

AYOTTE: She doesn’t like the Defense cuts that would be triggered by the debt-ceiling deal, aka, the “sequester” if Congress can’t reach a deal on what other items to cut. But she said it this way Tuesday, per The Hill: “I see this as a sleeper issue” in the election. "People react to burning fires ... [and] this fire is smoldering.” (Maybe not the best way to respond when there’s actually a serious fire in Colorado?)

She defended Romney while giving a keynote address to a conference examining democracy in Russia and, per CNN, Ayotte “said the GOP candidate's lack of direct foreign policy experience was bolstered by a strong team of advisers.” The New Hampshire Senator would NOT answer a question about the VP vetting process.

CHRISTIE: Per the AP: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says Mitt Romney didn't ask him to be his running mate when they appeared at a fundraiser on Tuesday. Christie also told a town hall audience in northern New Jersey on Wednesday that he has no inside information on who the likely GOP presidential nominee will pick as his running mate. He said he doesn't expect it will be him.”

And yesterday at a town hall, he gave an aspiring young politician some advice, which may give us some insight into why he ultimately decided not to run for president himself. Here’s the video, which was sent out from his office in a press release. The young man asks for advice, saying he hopes to one day be president.  “Because the press is here I’m giving you no advice on how to be President of the United States,” said Christie. And here is some insight into why he didn’t pull the trigger: “Don’t do it because someone said now is your only time -- gotta run now.  You’ll have all those people who are geniuses of politics. And the minute you lose, you won’t be able to get them on the phone.” 

PORTMAN:  On Romney, Portman said at the Reuters Washington Summit: "This is something I have never said publicly, I've told my wife this, but I think he'd be willing to risk being a one-term president in order to make the tough decisions that are going to be required.”

He also is taking steps to combat the zombie apocalypse.

RUBIO: “President Obama's decision blocking deportations of young illegal immigrants led to a swift branding effort by Republicans captured in a single, powerful word: AMNESTY,” the Tampa Bay Times writes. “But U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio is refusing to the same.” He told the paper: "I think there are some people that would define amnesty as anything that involves not enforcing the immigration laws. But in my mind, amnesty has always been a special pathway to citizenship that circumvents existing law."

Rubio, like Scott Brown, said again that Eric Holder should resign, accusing him of “stonewalling.”

In a video message today, Marco Rubio said of Fast and Furious, “I think this has gone on so long, and the stonewalling by the attorney general has been so egregious that I think he has to resign.”

And here’s a Daily Beast opinion about the merits of a Romney/Rubio ticket.

RYAN: He’s heading to Quincy, IL, next month to fundraise for Romney.

And he may want another gig other than VP, per RealClearPolitics: “Senior aides on the House Republican leadership team worship Ryan, but when they discuss his prospects, they talk of how badly he wants to chair the all-powerful House Ways and Means Committee (where four Republicans currently outrank him), rather than the executive branch.”

THUNE: He won’t call for Holder’s resignation yet, but told the Daily Caller: “I am certainly following closely.” He’ll appear on FOX Business today to discuss his efforts to block a European tax on U.S. air carriers and passengers flying in U.S. airspace.

NBC’s Alex Moe and Andrew Rafferty contributed here.

MASSACHUSETTS: Scott Brown called for Eric Holder to step down, the Boston Herald reports. Brown said on a radio show yesterday: “For the best interest of the country, I think he should step down and resign. He’s lost the confidence of the American people. Certainly he’s lost the confidence of Congress. He misled Congress. They have a right to know.”

Warren responded on MSNBC’s The Rachel Maddow Show: “Just one more politician. I mean this is really all about politics and playing this game in Washington. And the Republicans think they’ve got something here, and he’s just trying to see if he can turn up the temperature on it. I think this is why people get disgusted by politics.”

SOURCE: NBC-WSJ poll

Enthusiasm is down generally this election as compared to 2008.

An average of several key groups from the NBC/WSJ poll, shows interest in this fall's election down an average of 5.3 points from this time four years ago. That's to be expected, considering the political climate, economy, and no exciting, drawn-out primaries on both sides (like in 2008).

But there are red flags for the Obama campaign, considering Latinos and young voters appear to be among the least enthused so far and down in big numbers from 2008.

And there are things for the Romney campaign to look at, particularly when it comes to white-working class and blue-collar voters. Romney wins both by double-digits in the latest NBC/WSJ poll -- white working class 58-31%, blue collar 48-37% -- but their enthusiasm is low as well.

And how about this question: What if an election were decided by just the parties' bases? Independents are also down – just 65% say they’re 8, 9, or 10, down 11 points from 2008.

To measure enthusiasm, the pollsters asked respondents to say how interested they are in this November’s contest, on a scale of one to 10. Adding up the 8s, 9s, and 10s gives a good measure of who the most likely voters will be this fall.

DUBUQUE, Iowa -- Staying on the offensive against Mitt Romney for a second day on Wednesday, Vice President Joe Biden said that the nominee's attempts to explain his record of aiding companies at investment firm Bain Capital amounted to a "cruel joke."

Referencing the Romney campaign's efforts to distinguish between "offshoring" jobs and "outsourcing" them domestically, Biden mocked the differentiation as a heartless and irrelevant one to those whose job was lost at the hands of a company like Bain.

"If you're looking for work, that's a pretty cruel joke," he said. "I can picture one guy standing next to another guy in the unemployment line and saying, 'Hey John, did you get offshored or outsourced?'"

The gag won the desired effect of guffaws from the crowd of over 400 at a picturesque riverfront event in Dubuque.

In a lengthy address, the vice president echoed his attacks on the GOP nominee from a similar speech in Waterloo yesterday, poking fun at the former CEO's "Swiss bank account" and caricaturing Romney's global reach at Bain.

"You got to give him credit. He created a hell of a lot of jobs in Singapore, China, India," Biden said. "The problem is the guys in my old neighborhood, they don't live in Singapore, they don't live in China."

His speech relied heavily on his own biography here in a part of the state where local Democrats joke he might as well have been born and raised. He conceded at one point that his own blue-collar roots are sometimes overblown even by his own boss.

"Barack makes me sound like I climbed out of a coal mine in Scranton with a lunch bucket," he said to laughter.  "No one in my family worked in a factory."

Despite the light-hearted delivery of some of his jabs at Romney, Biden also grimly described the woes of those who remain jobless as the economy chugs out of a devastating downturn.

Offering a mix of positive news about the economy and sympathy for Americans who are still struggling, one of his family anecdotes struck a pessimistic note.

" My grandpa used to say - he's from Scranton -  he'd say "Joey, when the guy in Dumore, the next town over, when the guy in Dunmore's outta work it's an economic slowdown. When your brother-in-law's out of work, it's a recession. When you're out of work, it's a depression.'"

"It's a depression for millions and millions of Americans," Biden continued. "It's a depression."

The vice president will return to Washington this afternoon after another stop in Clinton, IA.

Hispanics overwhelmingly approve of President Obama’s recently announced immigration policy and give him a 40-point lead over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, according to results from a new NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Telemundo poll.

Obama’s job approval among Latinos has also seen a four-point boost, within the poll’s margin of error, since the immigration announcement.

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama waves at supporters after speaking at Obama Victory Fund concert in Miami, Fla.

But the president still faces a challenge in energizing Latinos to vote. Hispanics -- the largest-growing demographic group in the country that could also hold the key to Obama’s re-election bid -- are not as interested in this election, so far, as they were at the same point during the 2008 election.

NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll toplines.

Popular immigration policy

Obama’s recent executive order halting the deportation of illegal immigrants younger than 30 and brought to the United States as children is popular with all voters but even more so among Latinos.

Sixty-eight percent of all Americans said they favored Obama’s order, and 29 percent opposed it. Among Hispanic or Latino adults, almost nine-in-10 favored the new policy.

The poll was conducted June 20-24 after the president’s immigration pronouncement.

Big Obama lead

Obama is ahead of Romney with Hispanic registered voters, 66 to 26 percent, adding six points to his margin over Romney among Latinos from last month’s NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Telemundo poll.

In 2008, Obama won the group, 67 to 31 percent, according to exit polls.

Nearly two-thirds – 65 percent – of Latinos approve of the job the president is doing, up four points since May. That’s much higher than the 47 percent approval Obama gets from all Americans surveyed in the poll.

Obama’s advantage among Hispanic voters could prove especially important in swing states like Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, where Latinos make up a large – and growing – portion of the electorate – as well as Virginia, where it is also on the rise.

Hispanics prefer Obama, Democrats on the issues – not just immigration

Romney has argued Latinos are not monolithic, that they care about more than just immigration. It’s one reason he has focused largely on the economy in his overtures toward Hispanic voters.

But, fundamentally, Latinos agree with Obama and Democrats on issues, ranging from immigration to health care to the economy and taxes.

They do so by much greater margins than the public at large; they are more optimistic about the country’s direction and economic outlook; and they believe in an expanded role for government.

For example:

• 72 percent of Hispanics said the president inherited the economic situation; All respondents: 60 percent;
• 64 percent said government should do more to help; All respondents: 49 percent;
• 62 percent of Hispanics approve of Obama’s handling of the economy; All respondents: 42 percent;
• 62 percent said the economy is recovering; All respondents: 51 percent;
• 56 percent of Hispanics said last month’s jobs report, which showed just 69,000 jobs created, was a reason for optimism; All respondents: 43 percent;
• By 50-16 percent, Hispanics prefer Democrats on immigration; All respondents: Democrats 33-30 percent;
• By 48-20 percent, Hispanics said Obama’s push for health care was a good idea; All respondents: bad idea by 41-35 percent;
• By 46-16 percent, Hispanics preferred Democrats on taxes; All respondents: Republicans 34-32 percent.
• By 42-17 percent, Hispanics believe President Obama’s economic policies have helped not hurt; All respondents: 33-32 percent;
• 42 percent of Hispanics said the country is on the right track; All respondents: 31 percent;
• 30 percent of Latinos said the government was doing too many things; All respondents: 47 percent

"The advantage Democrats currently enjoy among Hispanics/Latinos can be measured of course by the 40-point edge on the presidential ballot by President Obama, but is also seen on the party issue handling sequence, where these respondents say Democrats would do a better job on every issue, even including such traditional Republican bulwarks as government spending, taxes, and terrorism,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart.

Intensity gap: Not quite ¡Obama!

Despite Obama’s built-in advantages with Hispanics, he still faces warning signs among this key voting bloc, even after the immigration announcement. Hispanic voters are not quite as fired up and ready to go to the polls.

Despite jumps in approval for the president and an increased margin over Romney with Hispanics, Latinos indicate they are no more enthused about voting this fall than they were a month ago. Their interest in this election remains far below 2008 levels, and lags well behind other key groups this cycle.

To measure enthusiasm, the pollsters asked respondents to say how interested they are in this November’s contest, on a scale of one to 10. Adding up the 8s, 9s, and 10s gives a good measure of who the most likely voters will be this fall.

Two-thirds – 66 percent – of Latinos put themselves in this high-interest category. Last month, it was 68 percent. That’s much lower than the average of 80 percent in this poll for all adults.

It’s particularly problematic for Obama’s re-election chances, considering some of the highest-interest groups are ones likely to vote for Romney – Tea Party supporters (89 percent), McCain 2008 voters (88 percent), conservatives (84 percent), those 65 and older (83 percent), Republicans (83 percent), and whites (81 percent).

Several key Obama voting groups come in above 80 percent – post-grads (87 percent), urban voters (86 percent), college-educated women (84 percent), Democrats (83 percent), liberals (83 percent), Obama 2008 voters (83 percent), African Americans (81 percent).

But Hispanics and young voters, two key pieces of the puzzle, see a big drop off. Young voters are even lower than Latinos, at just 61 percent.

Consider that in July 2008, four-out-of-five Hispanics – 80 percent – were in the high-interest range. That rose to 100 percent by November, with 92 percent saying they were a 9 or 10.

In this poll, just 52 percent of Latinos said they were a 9 or 10, below the 68 percent of all respondents. In July 2008, 64 percent of Hispanics said they were 9s and 10s.

“The data also reminds us of the signal challenge to the president -- increasing interest, intensity and turn-out among Latinos,” McInturff said.

The pollsters asked another question to gauge enthusiasm. It asked directly how likely they were to vote and, in that category as well, Hispanics lagged behind the average of all adults – 76 percent of Latinos said they were “almost certain” to or “probably” would vote, far below the 93 percent that said so among all Americans.

Taking out those who said “probably,” the gulf is even wider – just 65 percent of Hispanics said they were “almost certain” to vote versus 88 percent of all respondents.

The one silver lining for Obama is the 57 percent of Hispanics said they were more enthusiastic about voting in this election than previous ones, higher than the 47 percent of all respondents who said so. But it doesn’t show up in the interest scale.

Translation: Hispanics like Obama and prefer him by wide margins to Romney, but, so far, they’re not energized – despite the immigration announcement.

But Hart cautioned that, even though the poll was conducted days after the immigration announcement, it’s likely too early to tell if it will resonate with the Latino community in the way Obama hopes.

“This is early,” Hart said. “Obviously, it’s a group that’s less likely to turn out, but now there’s a strong reason to turn out. They have a champion in their corner and an issue that they care about. We’re looking for an instantaneous chain reaction, and it’s too early to be expected.”

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percent among all Latino respondents and 6.9 percent among Latino registered voters.

Despite another eventful month, Obama vs. Romney remains steady, per new NBC/WSJ poll… Obama 47%, Romney 44%... Both Obama and Romney struggled in June… Want to see the power of negative TV ads? Check out Romney’s standing in the swing states… A largely undefined Romney… And the NBC/WSJ poll plays the word association game… More polls are on the way! NBC/WSJ/Telemundo Latino oversample comes out later this afternoon, and we’ll unveil new NBC-Marist state polls tomorrow morning… Pay attention to the natural disasters in CO and FL… Hatch and Rangel cruise to victory… And problems with the “Fast and Furious” story?

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks at Obama Victory Fund concert in Miami, Florida, on June 26, 2012.

*** Steady as she goes: Remember when we wrote earlier this week that, despite everything that has happened in the past month, the presidential contest has remained remarkably stable? Well, the new numbers from our new NBC/WSJ poll back up that assertion. After that disappointing May jobs report, the Wisconsin recall, more uncertainty in Europe, and that recent immigration announcement, President Obama and Mitt Romney are still locked in a tight contest among registered voters, with Obama at 47% and Romney at 44%. That's essentially unchanged from May, when the margin was four points, 47%-43%. But despite the stability on the surface, there are some fascinating things going on when you look inside the numbers. Obama is ahead among African Americans (92%-1%), women (52%-39%), Latinos (66-26%), voters ages 18-29 (52%-35%) and independents (40%-36%). Romney leads among Tea Party supporters (94%-1%), whites (53%-38%), white independents (46-32%), white women (50-41%) and men (48%-43%). And the two are running even among seniors, Midwest residents, and high-interest voters.

*** Both Obama and Romney struggled in June: So how do we explain this stability? The other poll results suggest that BOTH Obama and Romney have struggled in the past month. For Obama, those disapproving of his handling of the economy rose a point to 53%; those believing the country is on the wrong track increased three points to 61%; and his overall approval rating is 47% approve/48% disapprove -- the first time it has been upside down this year. Bottom line: There is plenty of economic pessimism, and that isn't good news for the incumbent president. In the poll, 49% say what they have seen, read, and heard about the country’s economy has made them less pessimistic, versus 43% who are more optimistic. (However, in May, it was 53% less pessimistic/42% more optimistic.)

*** Want to see the power of negative TV ads? But the NBC/WSJ poll also finds that Romney had a pretty rough month, too, especially in the swing states where all the advertising is going on. Among the voters in our poll living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Obama’s lead over Romney increases to 50%-42%. Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped: A month ago, Romney’s fav/unfav score stood at 34%/38% nationally and 36%-36% in these 12 swing states. But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33%-39% (that 39% unfav is tied with his all-time high) and 30%-41% in the swing states.  What’s more, the poll shows that attitudes about Romney’s business background also are more unfavorable in these battlegrounds. Among swing-state respondents, 18% say what they’ve seen and heard about Romney’s business record gives them a more POSITIVE opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33% who say it’s more NEGATIVE. That’s compared to the national 23%-to-28% margin on this question. The obvious conclusion here is that the negative TV ads pummeling Romney in the battleground states -- like here and here and here -- are having an impact.

*** An undefined Romney: Why could the negative TV ads have a bigger impact -- at least for now -- on Romney than Obama? Here’s one explanation: Romney remains largely undefined, according to our poll. Although it shows that only 6% of respondents don’t know who Romney is, just 20% say they “know a lot” about him, versus 43% who say the same about Obama. (To be sure, Romney’s percentage here is comparable to Obama’s when he was running for president at this same point in 2008.) In addition, a majority of Romney supporters – 58% – say their vote is more AGAINST Obama than FOR Romney. That’s compared to a whopping 72% of Obama supporters who say their vote is more FOR Obama than AGAINST Romney. “[Romney’s] a known name but an unknown person,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D). “They just haven’t related to him.”

*** The word association game: Our NBC/WSJ pollsters also did something else that’s unique to our survey: They asked respondents to say the first thing that came to their mind when thinking about the two presidential candidates. For Romney, 43% of the answers were negative. The top examples: wealthy/favor the wealthy (12%), bad/disaster (7%), out of touch (7%) and women’s rights/abortion stance (5%). By contrast, 40% of the answers about him were positive, such as good businessman (10%), change (10%), conservative/for smaller government (7%) and improve economy (5%). For Obama, 52% of the open-ended answers for him were negative: economy (15%), lack of experience/incompetent (9%), Obamacare (8%), high unemployment (6%) and broken promises (6%). Another 44% of the answers were positive: good leader/doing good job (10%), for the people (6%), health-care reform (5%) and fair/honest (5%). Be sure to check out the word clouds of these responses at the end of this article.

*** Other poll odds and ends: George W. Bush’s fav/unfav in the poll is 36%-45% (which isn’t too far off Romney’s 33%-39%)… Bain Capital’s fav/unfav is 8%-20%, which is better than Solyndra’s, 2%-24%... And 67% correctly identified Romney’s Mormon faith, but only 43% correctly identified Obama’s (versus 8% who ID’ed him as a Muslim and 1% who I.D’ed Obama as a Mormon). 

*** More polls are on the way! By the way, these aren't the only other poll numbers you'll see from us in the next 24 hours. Later today, we'll unveil our NBC/WSJ/Telemundo oversample of Latino respondents to get a better look at this pivotal demographic group, especially when it comes to immigration. And tomorrow morning, we'll release new NBC-Marist polls of Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. And speaking of state polls, Quinnipiac shows Obama leading Romney in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

*** Pay attention to what’s going on in Colorado and Florida: A quick note about the natural disasters currently taking place in Colorado and Florida, which are two battleground states: Don’t lose sight of them. These things can spiral quickly and have political repercussions.

*** On the trail: Romney raises money in New York City and Washington, DC before holding a campaign event in Sterling, VA at 5:00 pm ET… Biden campaigns in Dubuque, IA at 11:00 am ET… And NBC’s Carrie Dann confirms an AP report that Obama will embark on a bus tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio July 5-6.

*** Hatch and Rangel cruise to victory: GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch and Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel both won their primaries last night. The Washington Post: “Sen. Orrin G. Hatch and Rep. Charles B. Rangel, two longtime lawmakers who saw their careers imperiled by the shifting political winds, cruised to primary victories Tuesday night despite stiff challenges from younger upstarts. Hatch, a conservative Utah Republican, and Rangel, a liberal New York Democrat, have nearly eight decades of incumbency between them. But both lawmakers faced their toughest primary challenges ever this year, becoming the latest examples of longtime politicians struggling to adjust to a new political reality.” But while Hatch and Rangel won, another incumbent -- Oklahoma Rep. John Sullivan -- lost his GOP primary last night.

*** Problems with the “Fast and Furious” story? And with the House’s contempt vote against U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder set for tomorrow (same day as the SCOTUS decision on health care), an investigation by Fortune magazine reveals that the ATF never intentionally allowed the “Fast and Furious” guns to fall in the hands of a Mexican cartel, and it questions the credibility of the original whistleblower. “Nobody disputes that suspected straw purchasers under surveillance by the ATF repeatedly bought guns that eventually fell into criminal hands. Issa and others charge that the ATF intentionally allowed guns to walk as an operational tactic. But five law-enforcement agents directly involved in Fast and Furious tell Fortune that the ATF had no such tactic. They insist they never purposefully allowed guns to be illegally trafficked. Just the opposite: They say they seized weapons whenever they could but were hamstrung by prosecutors and weak laws, which stymied them at every turn. Indeed, a six-month Fortune investigation reveals that the public case alleging that Dave Voth and his colleagues walked guns is replete with distortions, errors, partial truths, and even some outright lies.”

Countdown to GOP convention: 61 days
Countdown to Dem convention: 68 days
Countdown to Election Day: 132 days

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*** Wednesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) on Holder, health care and more… Pollsters Fred Yang and Bill McInturff with a deep dive into the new NBC/WSJ numbers… NBC’s Luke Russert with the latest from Capitol Hill… More campaign trail news with the Washington Post’s David Nakamura and Ruth Marcus along with former Bush 43 White House Political Director Sara Taylor Fagen.

*** Wednesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), David Corn and Josh Marshall, Matthew Miller/Former Spokesperson for Eric Holder, Steve Elmendorf and Joe Watkins, Professor Joshua Hawley/Former clerk for Chief Justice John Roberts.

*** Wednesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up:

*** Wednesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include New York Times Magazine Editor Hugo Lindgren, Time’s Rana Foroohar, MSNBC’s “The Cycle” Co-host S.E. Cupp, MSNBC’s Jimmy Williams, Foreign Policy Editor in Chief Susan Glasser, and NBC’s Luke Russert

*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews NBC’s Chuck Todd, Pete Williams, Kelly O’Donnell and Luke Russert; the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza and Rajiv Chandrasekaran; GOP economist Doug Holtz-Eakin, Families USA Executive Director Ron Pollack; and MEDORA Works Directors Davy Rothbart and Andrea Cohn.

*** Wednesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews the Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty, Michael Smerconish, Rep. Trey Gowdy,  Rep. Peter Welch, and Magic Johnson.

The Boston Globe’s Viser: “The presidential race has so far not always been marked by its high-minded debate, guided more by tweaks on Twitter than detailed policy prescriptions for fixing the economy. On Tuesday, enter Kevin Youkilis into the political discussion.”

And he notes: “Romney himself is not completely error-free in his record with Red Sox Nation. During a debate in 2007, the former Massachusetts governor (and self-described ‘true-suffering fan’), botched the well-known drought between World Series victories (hint: 86 years). ‘Eighty-seven long years,’ Romney said. ‘We waited 87 long years. And true suffering Red Sox fans that my family and I are, we could not have been more happy than to see the Red Sox win the World Series, except by being able to beat the Yankees when they were ahead three games to none.’”

The Boston Globe breaks down New Hampshire: “[T]he sense in both camps is that the fight for this state’s four electoral votes will be close and possibly pivotal in the presidential election… Still, New Hampshire should be Obama’s to lose. Its 5 percent unemployment rate is among the lowest in the country, a long tradition of staunch Republican loyalty has been eroded by Massachusetts transplants, and the president could benefit from a backlash against Republican-led cuts to the state budget.”

Attention show producers prepping for the Supreme Court health-care decision… AP has a nice timeline of the various health reform efforts going all the way back to 1912 (and don’t worry the summaries are just a paragraph each).

Music to our ears… “The long, slow march toward a major college football playoff is over. It has been approved,” USA Today writes. “Conference commissioners met with an oversight committee of university presidents and chancellors here Tuesday to approve the four-team seeded playoff, consisting of two semifinal games in bowls and a national championship game that will be put up for bid.” Now, how about an eight-team playoff…

The AP reports and NBC’s Carrie Dann confirms: “A campaign official says Obama's two-day road trip through Pennsylvania and Ohio kicks off July 5. The visit to the key battleground states will be the president's first bus tour of the 2012 campaign. Obama's efforts thus far have focused largely on hauling in cash from supporters in dozens of fundraising events across the country as his campaign seeks to compete with energized Republican donors.”

Cue the Made-in-Canada Twitter frenzy…

“President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden unleashed a back-to-back assault Tuesday on Republican challenger Mitt Romney, re-emphasizing Democratic assertions that Romney as a venture capitalist sent U.S. jobs overseas and paid no heed to the impact on American workers,” the AP writes.

More from the AP: “President Barack Obama's campaign has recruited a legion of lawyers to be on standby for this year's election as legal disputes surrounding the voting process escalate. Thousands of attorneys and support staffers have agreed to aid in the effort, providing a mass of legal support that appears to be unrivaled by Republicans or precedent. Obama's campaign says it is particularly concerned about the implementation of new voter ID laws across the country, the possibility of anti-fraud activists challenging legitimate voters and the handling of voter registrations in the most competitive states.”

“The Supreme Court’s ruling on President Obama’s health care law may be two days away, but Mitt Romney on Tuesday offered a preview of how he’ll respond,” the Boston Globe writes. “If the law is rejected, Romney plans to argue that Obama wasted both his time, and the time of the American people, by pursuing a policy that doesn’t pass constitutional muster. If the law is upheld, Romney would argue that opponents need to elect him so that he can overturn it himself.”

MISSOURI: Sen. Claire McCaskill’s not going to the Democratic National Convention, following in the footsteps of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and North Dakota Senate candidate Heidi Heitkamp. All three are moderate Democrats in competitive elections this fall.

But on MSNBC’s Morning Joe this morning McCaskill denied that this was about her distancing herself from her party or the president. She said, instead, because it’s an election year, it’s important to be at home, that Republicans would use going to the convention against her – accusing her of not being devoted enough to her state, and besides, she said, she’s invited the president to campaign with her in Missouri. It’s a delicate line for McCaskill – she doesn’t want to alienate Republican-leaning moderates who she needs to cross over, nor does she want to upset black voters in Kansas City and St. Louis, who she will also need to turnout.

NEW YORK: “Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., survived a hard fought primary to secure his party's nomination to seek a 22nd term this November,” USA Today writes.

The New York Post: “Unsinkable Rangel just keeps rolling.” The Post called him “the oldest comeback kid ever.” Rangel, whose district was redrawn and became a majority Hispanic district, won 45-39%, despite being “scarred by a congressional censure of his ethical lapses.”

Roll Call: “Twenty-one-term Rep. Charlie Rangel, the Democratic icon who chaired the powerful House Ways and Means Committee and was a founding member of the Congressional Black Caucus, survived the fiercest primary challenge of his career Tuesday night.”

OKLAHOMA: “Republican divisions resurfaced in congressional primaries, with five-term Rep. John Sullivan falling to a tea party backed opponent in Oklahoma,” USA Today writes.  “Jim Bridenstine, a Navy pilot and the former director of a Tulsa space museum, defeated Sullivan on Tuesday, making him the fourth incumbent congressman to lose in primaries this year.”

Politico’s Mahtesian calls Sullivan “an incumbent caught sleeping.”

Sullivan told AP: "I never had a race like this in all my life. The only mistake I made was I ignored it for too long."

UTAH: “The tea party, big-spending PACs and challenger Dan Liljenquist failed Tuesday to force 78-year-old Orrin Hatch into retirement. The self-proclaimed ‘tough old bird’ flew easily through the GOP primary, so now only Democrat Scott Howell stands between him and a record-shattering seventh term,” the Salt Lake Tribune writes.

Colin E. Braley / AP

Senator Orrin Hatch, along with his wife Elaine, thanks his supporters after his primary win Tuesday night.

Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch accomplished Tuesday night what few other veteran Republican senators have done in recent years, managing to fend off a primary challenge from his right.

The Associated Press declared Hatch the projected winner of the Utah Republican Senate nomination, emerging victorious in the first primary the veteran senator had faced since first being elected in 1976.

Conservatives had targeted Hatch for defeat this cycle, throwing their support behind state Sen. Dan Liljenquist, who hoped the Tea Party wave that has caused heartburn for establishment Republicans would carry him to victory versus Hatch. 

Beating Hatch would have marked a significant changing of the guard in Utah, one of the most deeply Republican states, where the GOP primary serves often as the de-facto general elections. Conservatives managed to deny longtime Utah Sen. Robert Bennett (R) renomination during the 2010 elections. Mike Lee rallied conservative activists to deny Bennett the GOP nod, and was subsequently elected to the Senate that fall. 

Hatch had seemed to have learned the lessons of that campaign, working assiduously to secure his conservative flank and building a warchest to beat back a Tea Party challenge. 

He tacked to the right in tone and on certain key votes, locking up endorsements from talk radio favorites and even former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who’s more often than not endorsed challengers to established Republican lawmakers than the incumbents themselves.

Hatch's re-election strategy offered a roadmap for entrenched Republicans looking to fend off a conservative challenge. The Utah senator's approach broke, for example, from that of Sen. Richard Lugar's. The Indiana senator had largely been defiant of Tea Party forces, and lost a primary to State Treasurer Richard Mourdock earlier this year. Both Hatch and Lugar took office in 1977.

The early and aggressive effort by Hatch included an attempt to scare off would-be challengers before they even entered the race. The senator was particularly public in taking on two-term Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who had been viewed as a potentially formidable challenger but ultimately declined to run for Senate.

A major trump card for Hatch, though, came in the form of Mitt Romney. Perhaps no endorsement for Hatch was more important than Romney’s, who is held in high esteem in Utah due to his own Mormon faith, as well as the work Romney had done in 2002 to turn around the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics. Romney appeared with Hatch in Utah earlier this month to underscore his support for the longtime senator.

House Democrats are bracing for defections during Thursday's vote to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress after the National Rifle Association (NRA) announced they will be including the vote in their "future candidate evaluations."

"It is no secret that the NRA does not admire Attorney General Holder," a letter from the NRA to members of the House of Representatives reads. "For years, we have pointed out his history of anti-second Amendment advocacy and enforcement actions."

In an effort to persuade Democrats from voting for the contempt citation because of their fear of repercussions from the enormously powerful gun lobby, aides say that House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) is actively engaging members of their caucus to encourage them to vote against the measure, something called "whipping" on Capitol Hill.

"I think there are some members that will consider the recommendations of the NRA," Hoyer said to reporters today. "Whether they think those recommendations are founded or not, I don't know at this point."

The number of Democratic defections could reach 31, according to House Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa (R-CA), whose committee voted last Wednesday to move the contempt citation to a full House vote. 

Issa cites a letter sent from 31 Democrats to the Obama administration last year asking for them to be forthcoming with details of the Fast and Furious gun-walking operation as a template for possible Democratic "yes" votes.

While 31 Democrats voting for the contempt citation on Thursday may be overly optimistic, the sway of the NRA during an election year is a legitimate concern for Democrats. Democrats running in swing districts need the support of organizations like the NRA (or at least not their opposition) to stop more conservative opponents from taking them down in November.

But the NRA has made it crystal clear that it supports finding Holder in contempt of Congress, and they think members of Congress should as well.

"The reason we support the contempt resolution is the same reason we first called for Attorney General Holder's resignation more than a year ago: the Department's obstruction of congressional oversight of a program that cost lives in support of an anti-gun agenda," the NRA's letter reads. "This is an issue of the utmost seriousness and the NRA will consider this vote in our future candidate evaluations."

Another set of numbers from our new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: 60 percent say President Obama inherited the current economic conditions, compared with 26 percent who blame his policies for the state of the economy.

That's a slight change from Aug. 2011, when 56 percent said the president inherited the economy, versus 33 percent who singled out his policies.

Yet when asked in a separate question whether the president’s policies have helped or hurt the economy, 33 percent say they’ve hurt; 32 percent say they’ve helped; and another 32 percent answer that they haven’t made much of a difference.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted of 1,000 adults and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- is released at 6:30 pm ET.