A day of contradictions for Team Obama… And a contradiction for Romney in Iowa… That NYT/CBS poll -- things that make you go, hmmmm… Pro-Obama Super PAC doubles down on Bain… JP Morgan Chase loss spurs more talk about regulation… NE SEN primary day: Establishment front-runner beware!... And WI Dems complain about a lack of DNC money for the upcoming recall.

Mandel Ngan / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign fundraiser May 14, 2012 at the Rubin Museum of Art in New York City.

*** A day of contradictions: Yesterday certainly felt a day of contradictions for the White House and the Obama campaign. First, on the same day the campaign unloaded on Mitt Romney and his work at Bain Capital, you saw the president attending a fundraiser hosted by the president of the hedge fund giant Blackstone Group. Then, as the White House has been doing everything it can to portray the president’s gay-marriage announcement as anything BUT political, there was Obama raising money at a LGBT fundraiser hosted by Ricky Martin. Not surprisingly, the latest New York Times/CBS poll (whose methodology were a tad circumspect of… more in a few) finds that a resounding 67% of respondents believe the announcement was made for mostly political reasons, versus 24% who believe it was done out of principle. “The results reinforce the concerns of White House aides and Democratic strategists who worried that the sequence of events leading up to the announcement last week made it look calculated rather than principled,” the New York Times writes. That’s why, we guess, Vice President Biden apologized to the president -- his comments on “Meet the Press” guaranteed the gay-marriage story would be more about process and politics and not conviction.

*** Romney’s own contradiction: Yet here’s a contradiction for Romney: As he campaigns today in Iowa, his team has unveiled a new web video featuring unemployed Iowans. But the unemployment rate in Iowa is at 5.2%, one of the lowest in the nation and a level usually considered near full employment. Could this election be as simple as this: Romney needs the electorate to feel the economic doom and gloom these voters in this Romney web video express, while Obama wants the mentality on Election Day to be more reflective of what the 58% of folks told USA TODAY/Gallup about where the economy will be in 2013… It’s the usual optimism vs. pessimism meme but with a twist… both campaigns want to sell “better days ahead” with Romney serving up change as the answer and Obama serving up “don’t change horses just yet.”

*** Things that make you go, hmmmm: Speaking of that New York Times/CBS poll, it shows Romney at 46% and Obama at 43%. But get this: It also has the president’s approval rating at 50%. (How is Obama’s job approval at 50%, but his head-to-head number is 43%?) And given that this poll was a “call-back survey” -- with the respondents first interviewed back in April -- it feels like we need more poll data to make sense of all the events of the past two weeks. The gay marriage announcement. Obama’s campaign kickoff. The Osama bin Laden anniversary. The April jobs report. We respect the work the folks at the NYT/CBS do, but there are a lot of contradictions in the results, which simply means we should wait for more data. And guess what: Our NBC/WSJ poll is going into the field in the next 10 days. When you’re polling for a news organization, you usually want to be the first. But given all the news from the past two weeks, it’s not a bad thing to have the public have enough time to digest everything that has happened. By the way, we can tell that both Team Obama and Team Romney are nervous how the last couple of weeks have played, and the campaigns weren’t in the field last week.

*** Pro-Obama Super PAC doubles down on Bain: Yesterday’s Obama campaign’s two-minute Bain ad launched plenty of discussion and analysis – including here on First Read – but it’s worth noting that it’s a limited buy. According to Smart Media, it’s just for one day (May 16), and buy so far is less than $100,000. But guess what: The pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action is now going up in the same five states (CO, IA, OH, PA, and VA) with its own Bain ad on the same story about Romney and Bain (a Kansas City plant closing). The buy information for this ad is $780,000 from May 15 to May 21. We’re guessing that Team Romney might feel compelled to respond to with more than a web video like they did yesterday.

*** J.P. Morgan loss spurs fight over regulation: J.P. Morgan Chase’s $2 billion loss is giving President Obama and Democrats fodder. "This is why we passed Wall Street reform," Obama said in a preview clip of his appearance today on “The View.” Obama added, "You could have a bank that isn't as strong, isn't as profitable making those same bets and we might have had to step in and that's exactly why Wall Street reform is so important.” Sen. Carl Levin, head of a Senate subcommittee on investigations which looked into the 2008 crisis, said on PBS that he believes what J.P. Morgan did would have been illegal under Dodd-Frank. “[W]hat this bank did in this case, by their own data, is not reduce the risk. They were dramatically increasing the risk by their own data. That is not permitted by our law,” Levin said. Mitt Romney would want to repeal Dodd-Frank. But Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), who appeared with Levin, called for a hearing on the J.P. Morgan deal to better understand what they did.

*** On the trail: Romney campaigns in Des Moines, IA at 3:05 pm ET… Meanwhile, at 10:55 am ET in DC, Obama delivers remarks at a National Peace Officers memorial service.

*** Veepstakes watch: Rob Portman, in DC, attends a panel discussion at the Peterson Foundation Fiscal Summit

*** Establishment front-runner beware! It’s primary day in Nebraska and Oregon, and the marquee contest is the GOP Senate primary in the Cornhusker State. A week after a relative outsider defeated the establishment in Indiana -- with Richard Mourdock’s victory over Dick Lugar -- could the establishment favorite in Nebraska (Attorney General Jon Bruning) get a scare today? The New York Times’ Zeleny: “For months … Bruning has been seen as the leading contender in the primary, enjoying a fund-raising advantage and the backing of top Republicans here and in Washington. But as the primary approaches on Tuesday, the outcome is far from certain and the contest has become another potential wild card in the battle for control of the Senate, with outside groups feverishly trying to influence the race. Deb Fischer, 61, a rancher and state senator who is seeking statewide office for the first time, appears to be gaining ground on Mr. Bruning.” There’s a third candidate, state Treasurer Don Stenberg, who’s also in the mix. In today’s GOP, we’re not sure anyone wants to be the establishment front-runner anymore. David Dewhurst, watch out…

*** The DNC and the Wisconsin recall: The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent reported yesterday that Wisconsin Democrats are angry with the Democratic National Committee for not ponying up money for next month’s recall. “Considering that Scott Walker has already spent $30 million and we’re even in the polls, this is a winnable race,” a Wisconsin Dem tells Sargent. “We can get outspent two to one or five to one. We can’t get spent 20 to one.” But Wisconsin Democrats must not have gotten the same memo that the DSCC and DCCC did -- that the DNC’s money this cycle is going to be dedicated to the presidential contest, especially given all the GOP-leaning outside money. What’s more, what happened to all of labor’s money? If we remember correctly, the DNC didn’t spend a dime in last year’s state Senate recalls in Wisconsin. That said, there’s a A LOT riding on next month’s recall….

Countdown to WI recall: 21 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 104 days
Countdown to Dem convention: 111 days
Countdown to Election Day: 175 days

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*** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Obama-Biden Deputy Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter… MSNBC.com’s Vaughn Ververs on the new NBC Politics app available on iTunes… More 2012 headlines with National Review’s Robert Costa, NBC’s John Yang and former Obama White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

*** Tuesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), the Washington Post’s Dana Milbank, TheGrio.com’s Perry Bacon, NBC News Chief Legal Analyst Savannah Guthrie, former Federal Prosecutor Kieran Shanahan, Real Clear Politics’ Erin McPike, and Roll Call’s Shira Toeplitz.

*** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews USA Today’s Susan Page, Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), Priorities USA co-founder Bill Burton, GOP Strategist and Romney supporter Kevin Madden, The Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, NBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin and Columbia University custodian and recent graduate Gac Filipaj.

*** Tuesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Jimmy Williams, Erin McPike, and Courtney Hazlett, as well as the Grio’s Jay Scott Smith and actor Michael Ealy.

Romney leads 46%-43% over Obama in the latest CBS/New York Times poll. Last month, the two were tied at 46%. (Note: The poll was a call-back survey.)

Americans Elect didn’t get a candidate. They’ll decide how to proceed Thursday.

Political Wire: Americans Elect, ‘the deep-pocketed nonprofit group that set out to nominate a centrist third-party presidential ticket,’ admitted that its online nominating process had failed, Politico reports.”

“A new USA Today/Gallup Poll finds Americans ‘are increasingly optimistic that things are about to get better for the nation and themselves,’” Political Wire writes. “‘Though an overwhelming 71% rate economic conditions as poor, a 58% majority predict they will be good a year from now.’”

Bloomberg: “President Barack Obama said the specter of a well-run bank such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) suffering a $2 billion trading loss demonstrates the need for closer regulation of the financial services industry.”

“President Barack Obama’s campaign and a super-political action committee supporting him are using the same failed Kansas City steel company in television advertisements meant to portray presumed Republican opponent Mitt Romney as a ruthless businessman,” Bloomberg writes. “Priorities Action USA purchased $4 million of air time for the 30-second spot through the end of May, according to a source familiar with the ad buy.”

“Democrats hope Obama's politically risky embrace of gay marriage will re-energize supporters who had been frustrated by his previous assertions that his views on the hot-button social issue were ‘evolving,’” AP writes. “Women, young people and gay voters all made up crucial voting blocs for Obama in the 2008 election. With the president locked in a close race with Republican rival Mitt Romney, his campaign is focused on rallying support among those groups once again.”

“Roughly half of Americans (52%) say Barack Obama’s expression of support for gay marriage did not affect their opinion of the president. A quarter (25%) say they feel less favorably toward Obama because of this while 19% feel more favorably,” Pew writes.

The top story in the Des Moines Register is about Romney’s visit there today. From the story: “Mitt Romney is scheduled to be in Iowa today for the first time since the GOP caucuses to talk about the federal deficit. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama intends to run a lengthy TV ad here cracking him on the head for killing jobs. The moves set the stage for a duel by the two leading candidates over their economic records — and Iowa is a main arena for the battle. That refocuses the campaigns on the expected main issue of the election, following a week in which social issues, including same-sex marriage and bullying, outshone the rest of the presidential campaign news.”

Romney has a new video out, posted online, with testimonials from people about how bad the economy is and how difficult it’s been for many. The three people in the video are from Iowa. “A lot of people around here, when Barack was running and all that, everyone believed, everyone had hope. They all thought, ‘Man, this guy’s gonna get something done. When he is in office, now it seems like nothing’s getting done. Seems like it’s all talk.” Iowa’s unemployment rate, however, is well below the national average at 5.2%.

“His nomination all but assured, Mitt Romney is set to inch closer to clinching the GOP presidential nomination with a presidential primary in Oregon,” the AP writes. “Oregon and Nebraska are taking their turns weighing in on the Republican race, though Nebraska's contest is little more than a beauty pageant.” Oregon has 25 delegates at stake.

MARTINEZ: The New Mexico governor was critical of her party and Romney’s immigration strategy: “‘Self-deport?’ What the heck does that mean?” Martinez told The Daily Beast. “I have no doubt Hispanics have been alienated during this campaign. But now there’s an opportunity for Gov. Romney to have a sincere conversation about what we can do and why.”

Here’s her strategy: “First, Republicans should remind Latinos that Obama pledged to pass comprehensive immigration reform by the end of his initial year in office, but ‘didn’t even have the courage to try.’ Next, the GOP should outflank the president--on the left--by proposing its own comprehensive plan. ‘I absolutely advocate for comprehensive immigration reform,” Martinez says…. ‘Republicans want to be tough and say, ‘Illegals, you’re gone.’ But the answer is a lot more complex than that.’ Martinez envisions an approach ‘with multiple levels’: increased border security; deportation for criminals; a guest-worker program for people who want ‘to go freely back and forth across the border to work’; a DREAM Act-style pathway to citizenship, through the military or college, for children brought here illegally by their parents; and a visa (coupled with a ‘penalty’ or a ‘tagback’) that allows rest of the illegal population to remain in the U.S. while they follow standard naturalization procedures.”

PORTMAN: “Ohio Senator Rob Portman downplayed the political impact of job cuts linked to Mitt Romney’s former private-equity firm and a $2 billion trading loss at JPMorgan Chase & Co., calling them examples of ‘capitalism’ that shouldn’t affect the election or financial regulation,” Bloomberg writes. Portman said, “You know, that is capitalism. There are not different kinds of capitalism; there’s the free market, and he can show where his efforts, net, created 100,000-plus jobs -- that’s pretty good.” Of J.P. Morgan, he said, “That’s capitalism. They made a mistake.”

On being veep, he said: "I think I'm better suited to stay where I am in the Senate. The folks in Ohio expect me to stick around and do my job."

NEBRASKA: The Lincoln Journal Star’s Walton has some questions about tonight’s GOP Senate primary: “Does Jon Bruning hold on to his lead?  Does Deb Fischer have enough of a final kick?  Does the vote splinter sufficiently to allow Don Stenberg's dependable core of supporters to ultimately rule the day? Where do the undecideds go? Fischer came on strong last week with Sarah Palin and Jeff Fortenberry and Joe Ricketts cheering her on in the Republican Senate race. Before Ricketts unleashed his weekend TV buy, Bruning looked back over his shoulder, saw Fischer coming and planted a negative TV ad in her path. If this were Vegas or NASCAR, you'd go with the leader. But this is a race where movement can occur under the surface, as it once did for Chuck Hagel and Mike Johanns and Fortenberry and Bob Kerrey.”

While his immediate audience was the 600-member Barnard College class of 2012, the commencement speech President Obama delivered on Monday was clearly aimed at an even bigger group –- all women voters, an essential voting bloc for his re-election bid.

The president empathized with the all-women class over their professional and personal challenges, including issues like fair pay and access to contraception. He also criticized Congress, spotlighting the ever-popular women in his life and sharing his own personal story.

“As young women, you're also going to grapple with some unique challenges like whether you’ll be able to earn equal pay for equal work. Whether you’ll be able to balance the demands of your job with your family. Whether you’ll be able to fully control decisions about your own health,” the president said.

He suggested that the lives of all Americans are improved when women are afforded those abilities.

“Indeed, we know we are better off when women are treated fairly and equally in every aspect of American life, whether it's the salary you earn or the health decisions you make.”

Obama said he had confidence in the graduates because, in a statement that seemed geared more towards his 2008 supporters, he’s seen them “engage and turn out in record numbers.”

“As tough as things have been, I am convinced that you are tougher,” he continued. “I've seen your passion and your service.”

Obama’s re-election chances could very well hinge on whether women turn out and vote for him in November. In 2008, according to the exit polls, the president beat John McCain by seven percentage points among all women. A recent NBC/WSJ poll showed Obama leading presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney among female voters by 12 points.

Obama’s three-pronged advice for the graduating women began with the entreaty to not just get involved but “fight for your seat at the table.”

Alluding to the recent congressional spats over women’s access to contraceptive care, the president suggested that the issue may have been nipped in the bud were more women seated in Capitol Hill offices.

“One reason we're actually re-fighting long-settled battles over women's rights is because women occupy fewer than one in five seats in Congress,” he said. “I'm not saying that the only way to achieve success is by climbing to the top of the corporate ladder or running for office, although -- let's face it -- Congress would get a lot more done if you did,” he continued, as the graduates chuckled.  

In urging the graduates to lead by example – his second piece of advice – the president highlighted the women in his life, especially his wife Michelle.

He praised her ability to keep up a career and family, as well as the ability to balance the latter with a political persona.

“The reason Michelle had the strength to juggle everything and put up with me and eventually the public spotlight was because she, too, came from a family of folks who didn't quit,” he said.

And the third bullet point of his advice – perseverance – gave the president an opportunity to relay his own personal story, to which so many voters were drawn during his last campaign.

He shared how his first meeting as a community organizer ended up with no attendees besides a few elderly women looking for the bingo game, and how his band of volunteers may have quit if it hadn’t been for his admonition to forge ahead.

“I said to the volunteers: Before you quit, answer one question. What will happen to those boys if you quit?” he asked, gesturing to some boys aimlessly throwing rocks outside. “Who will fight for them if we don't?  Who will give them a fair shot if we leave?”

He added that it was those “small victories” that continued to push him into the “bigger victories of my last three and a half years as president.”

The Obama campaign's assault on Mitt Romney's private sector career is meant to accomplish two goals: tarnish the cornerstone of the presumptive GOP nominee’s political biography, and play into middle class voters' economic anxieties over the actions of large financial institutions.

The president's re-election team sent notice Monday morning that its new ad, which took aim at Bain Capital's involvement at a Kansas City steel plant, was only the first in a sustained wave of attacks on the company Romney co-founded.

David Karp / AP

President Barack Obama arrives at JFK International Airport May 14 in New York on his way to deliver the commencement address at Barnard College in New York City.

"Most Americans know that, even in the real world, when you bankrupt a company, you don't walk away with millions of dollars for yourself and others while workers are left holding the bag," said Stephanie Cutter, the deputy campaign manager for the Obama team, in a conference call Monday morning.

"That's simply wrong, especially if you're using those lessons and values learned from that experience as the central premise of your campaign for president. Romney didn't care about rewarding hard work and responsibility, he didn't care about everyone playing by the same set of rules; he cared about making money for him and his partners at all costs," she said.

RELATED: Obama campaign criticizes Romney's 'economic values'

The Romney team cried foul in response, accusing the president of diverting attention from the anemic performance of the economy. “We welcome the Obama campaign’s attempt to pivot back to jobs and a discussion of their failed record.  Mitt Romney helped create more jobs in his private sector experience and more jobs as Governor of Massachusetts than President Obama has for the entire nation,” said Andrea Saul, Romney’s press secretary.

Later in the day, the Romney campaign released its own web video touting Steel Dynamics, one of the success stories during Romney's time at Bain, as a countervailing example.

(Bain, in its own statement this afternoon, emphasized its neutrality in the election and decried how its "exemplary 28-year record will be distorted and complex business situations will be portrayed in a simplistic way.")

Nonetheless, the Obama campaign’s new plan to conduct a sustained assault on Romney’s record represents an effort to turn what’s regarded as one of the Republican’s greatest strengths – his economic expertise – into a liability.

As NBC Politics previously explored, Romney has an advantage versus Obama on the economy, though not by as wide of a margin as his campaign might hope. Moreover, the data in last month’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggested that voters didn’t expect the economy to perform much better in a Romney administration vs. a second term from Obama. In short, neutralizing Romney’s advantage on the economy would throw the election to other factors, and Obama holds the advantage on many of those.

Romney sells economic acumen - are voters buying?

But the Obama campaign’s attack also plays into broader themes of fairness and equality on which the president has staked his re-election effort.

"We have to move forward, to the future we imagined in 2008, where everyone gets a fair shot, and everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same rules," he said earlier this month at his campaign launch in Columbus. "That’s the choice in this election, and that’s why I’m running for a second term as president of the United States."

An early April Washington Post/ABC News poll suggested that this message, versus a more generic Republican argument about overregulation, might have more political traction. Fifty-two percent of Americans in that poll said they viewed unfairness in the economy that favors the wealthy as a bigger problem than overregulation, named by 37 percent of Americans as a bigger problem.

That message is necessitated partly by the sluggish growth in employment in recent months; while the economy is improving, the rate at which hiring has improved makes it more difficult for Obama and Democrats downballot to run on the economy.

First Thoughts: Bain returns

But the Obama campaign is betting that diminished faith in major institutions – and outright skepticism toward Wall Street and the rest of the financial sector – might be enough to stave off Romney’s attacks, especially if they can link the former buyout guru to the excesses of corporate titans.

Obama himself noted that banks and other financial behemoths hadn’t been “model corporate citizens” in his commencement address Monday at Barnard.

There are plenty of examples toward which Obama and his party can point, and already, some of the party’s candidates have gotten the memo.

Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic Senate candidate in Massachusetts who had earned plaudits from liberals for her efforts to rein in Wall Street, seized on news that J.P. Morgan had lost $2 billion in a hedging scheme to call on CEO Jamie Dimon to resign his position as director of the New York Federal Reserve Board.

“There’s been a guerilla war out there in which the largest financial institutions have been doing everything they can to make sure that financial regulations don’t get put in place, and if they do get put in place, that they’re loaded with loopholes, and not very effective,” she said Monday on CNN.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul said Monday that he'll cease campaigning in upcoming caucuses and primaries, an announcement of symbolic, if not substantive, significance.

Paul, the libertarian-minded congressman who'd sought to convert his grassroots support and fundraising prowess into electoral success, sent a letter to supporters announcing he'd stop spending money on forthcoming nominating contests.

"Moving forward, however, we will no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted. Doing so with any hope of success would take many tens of millions of dollars we simply do not have," he said in a statement.

The announcement changes little, though, for the Paul campaign. While the candidate had continued to hold rallies in Texas and California -- at which, his campaign boasted, thousands of attendees would appear -- those events were sporadic at best. Moreover, Paul had hardly been a regular presence on the campaign trail since the earliest contents, and he had largely eschewed primaries in favor of caucuses, where his enthusiastic supporters threatened to influence the outcomes.

But Paul never won any of those caucuses, and his campaign turned its attention in recent weeks to the obscure process of delegate allocation on the state level. The Texas congressman said Monday that his team would continue in its bid to accrue delegates.

"Our campaign will continue to work in the state convention process.  We will continue to take leadership positions, win delegates, and carry a strong message to the Republican National Convention that liberty is the way of the future," he said.

Paul's endgame in pursuing delegates (affecting the platform, maybe, or even winning a spot for him or his son on the Republican ticket) is far from clear. Paul announced last year that he would not seek re-election, spurring speculation that his son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who was elected in 2010, might inherit the Paul political organization.

Bain returns as a campaign issue with new Obama TV ad… A tale of two commencement speeches: Obama gives address at Barnard College at 1:10 pm ET, while Romney spoke on Saturday at Liberty University… Team Romney targets deficit and spending… The boo birds: Paul supporters boo Romney surrogates Josh Romney and Tim Pawlenty… McConnell under pressure from Tea Party candidates?... And NC Dem chairman won’t resign.

From NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

*** Bain returns:It was just four months ago when the pro-Gingrich Super PAC began airing its TV ads hitting Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital. And here’s something that you might have forgotten: The ads worked -- Romney found himself on the defensive and ended up losing in South Carolina. In fact, the ads worked so well that the GOP backlash was: “Don’t run them, they’re hurting Romney.” Today, Bain makes its first appearance in the early general election, with a two-minute Obama campaign TV ad to air in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia. The advertisement profiles Bain’s purchase of a Kansas City steel plant that it later shut down after making a large profit. And it features testimonials from folks much like the Gingrich Super PAC ads did, with graphic imagery. "It was like a vampire. They came in and sucked the life out of us," said one who used to work at that steel plant. "Bain Capital walked away with a lot of money that they made of this plant. We view Mitt Romney as a job destroyer," said another. An additional quote about Romney: "If he's going to run the country the way he ran his business, I wouldn't want him there.” The Obama camp holds a 10:45 am ET conference call on this new ad campaign.

*** Defining Romney and returning to the economy: We have three additional thoughts on the anti-Bain ad. One, it’s another reminder -- coming after last week’s bullying story -- that the Romney campaign isn’t defining its candidate first; others are doing that. Is a private-equity firm like Bain Capital a job creator, as Romney has portrayed it? Or is its chief mission to make money and maximize a return on investment, as others argue? The most prominent Bain ad that’s aired for the last few months is the one about Romney helping rescue a kidnapped daughter of a colleague. It’s a good story about Romney’s character, but there hasn’t been a new positive profile of Bain painted in some time. Two, the Obama ad does bring the discussion back to the economy, after weeks of conversation about anything but. Gay marriage. Bullying. Osama bin Laden. Afghanistan. And three, this VERY NEGATIVE Obama ad comes after last week’s positive ones. There’s a belief by some strategists that once Memorial Day hits, it’ll be harder and harder to secure the attention of voters as they focus on their summer plans. Here’s the Romney camp’s response to the ad, per NBC’s Peter Alexander: “The Obama campaign is going to do everything they can to distract voters from the fact that their policies are not working. President Obama can't come close to matching the many years of experience that Mitt Romney has as a private businessman so he has chosen to attack it.”

*** A tale of two commencement speeches: November’s presidential election will be a clear contrast between Obama and Romney (on the economy, deficit reduction, social issues, and foreign policy). And another clear contrast: their dueling commencement speeches. At 1:10 pm ET, the president delivers the commencement address at Barnard College, the all-female college in New York City. Afterward, he tapes an appearance on “The View,” which will air tomorrow. These back-to-back events all scream, “GENDER GAP.” On the other hand, Romney on Saturday gave the commencement address at Liberty University, the religious school in Virginia that Jerry Falwell founded. And that speech boiled down to: “I’M PLANTING MY EVANGELICAL FLAG AND I’M ONE OF YOU.” It’s hard not to these two commencement addresses as evidence that the campaigns are viewing November’s contest as a turnout election, not a battle for undecided.

*** More on Romney’s Liberty address: In his Liberty University speech, as NBC’s Andrew Rafferty reported, Romney defended traditional marriage -- a clear rebuttal to Obama’s support for gay marriage earlier in the week. "Marriage is a relationship between one man and one woman," he said. He talked about religious freedom and made numerous references to faith and religion. “From the beginning, this nation trusted in God, not man.  Religious liberty is the first freedom in our Constitution.” And he briefly mentioned his own Mormon faith, although never said the word “Mormon” in his speech. “People of different faiths, like yours and mine, sometimes wonder where we can meet in common purpose, when there are so many differences in creed and theology,” he said. “Surely the answer is that we can meet in service, in shared moral convictions about our nation stemming from a common worldview.” It’s very possible this will be as close as he gets to giving a Mormon speech this cycle (even though Liberty University offers a graduate theology course describing Mormonism as a cult).  

*** Team Romney targets the deficit and spending: While Team Obama begins this week hitting Romney on Bain, the Romney camp is punching back by targeting deficits and debt. “For the last three-and-a-half years, President Obama’s liberal policies of wasteful spending and skyrocketing debt haven’t lived up to his own promises to control our nation’s mounting deficits,” Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul says in a statement. “As president, Mitt Romney will finally change Washington and stop passing our financial burdens on to the next generation.” The RNC is doubling down on this line of attack with a web video, too.

*** The boo birds: Here’s something to keep an eye on: As Politico notes this morning, Paul supporters booed Josh Romney in Arizona during the state’s convention and Tim Pawlenty in Oklahoma at that state’s GOP convention. And remember, the folks doing the booing are the ones who may be casting the votes for Romney in Tampa -- even if their heart is with another candidate. It appears that Paul forces once again have been able to get their folks elected as Romney delegates, at least in Arizona.

*** On the trail: As mentioned above, Obama today delivers the commencement address at Barnard College in New York… Romney is off the trail… For the remainder of the week: The president on Wednesday delivers a speech in DC calling on Congress to act on the economy, and on Friday he travels to Camp David to attend the G-8 summit… Romney stumps in Des Moines, IA on Tuesday and in Tampa, FL on Wednesday… And Vice President Biden campaigns in Ohio on Wednesday and Thursday.

*** Veepstakes watch: Tim Pawlenty, in Minneapolis, today delivers a speech on Restoring America’s Future at 1:00 pm ET… On FOX yesterday, South Dakota Sen. John Thune didn’t rule out being Romney’s VP, NBC’s Alex Moe notes. "You never rule out opportunities or options when you're involved in public life, and you say you want to make a difference." But he added, "I have a job to do in the United States Senate."

*** Under pressure: Over the weekend, the New York Times reminded us that Mitch McConnell – come next year – could have the same problem that John Boehner has now: taming his Tea Party members. “In Arizona, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas, Republican Senate candidates are vying for the mantle of Tea Party outsider. A number of them say that they would seek to press an agenda that is generally to the right of the minority leader, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, and that they would demand a deeper policy role for the Senate’s growing circle of staunch conservatives. Some say they have not decided whether they would support Mr. McConnell, who could find himself contending with the type of fractious rank and file that has vexed the House speaker, John A. Boehner of Ohio.” Here’s a question to ponder: If Senate Republicans don’t win a majority in November, will McConnell hold on to his job? Speaking of Boehner, Politico says that he’s under pressure from GOP conservatives to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress.

*** NC Dem chairman says he won’t resign: The Democrats’ problems in North Carolina aren’t getting any better. The AP: “The embattled chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party says he's staying on the job after party activists meeting in Greensboro rejected his resignation. Chairman David Parker returned late Saturday to the state Executive Committee meeting, where he said he won't leave. Earlier, he had submitted his resignation, but committee members voted 269-203 to reject it. Gov. Beverly Perdue, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and others had wanted Parker to step down because they said he was a distraction in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters. Parker's allies didn't want him to leave.”

Countdown to WI recall: 22 days

Countdown to GOP convention: 105 days

Countdown to Dem convention: 112 days

Countdown to Election Day: 176 days

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President Obama's re-election team argued Monday that Bain Capital cofounder Mitt Romney learned "lessons and values" during his time at the helm of the Boston-based investment firm that run counter to an economic structure that benefits the middle class.

"This is about whether the lessons and values Romney drew from his time as a buyout specialist," said deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter on a conference call with reporters. "What those values are –- what they tell us about what type of president Mitt Romney would be, and whether the voters want that in the Oval Office."

In a new two minute ad, the Obama campaign argues that Romney and his Bain colleagues were responsible for the closure of a Kansas City steel plant that led to hundreds of layoffs as well as pension and retirement losses.

The Romney camp points out that the former Massachusetts governor left the firm in 1999, two years before the bankruptcy at GS Industries, and that he has taken responsibility for Bain's purchase of the plant but not its management. Team Obama counters that Romney "set in motion" the series of structural changes that led to the 2001 closure of the company.

"I do think it's absolutely on the table as an indication of Romney's values and lessons that he learned from this experience and how he would run the national economy," Cutter said.

The Obama campaign's Bain argument appeared to be somewhat undercut within hours of the new ad's rollout, when former Obama adviser and "car czar" Steven Rattner called the commercial "unfair."

"Bain Capital's responsibility was not to create 100,000 jobs or some other number," said Rattner during an appearance on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "It was to create profits for its investors, most of whom were pension funds and endowments and foundations. And it did it superbly well, acting within the rules, acting very responsibly, and was a leading firm."

Cutter said Monday that the president's re-election team isn't focused on the success or failure of Romney's firm, but rather on the "values" exhibited by Bain's treatment of employees of the companies it managed.

"Bain was, and continues to be, a very prominent firm that does very well; it does very well by its investors," Cutter said.

"At the end of the day, this isn't about private equity," she said. "Romney says there are winners and losers. Absolutely. But at the end of the day Mitt Romney and his partners always won and somebody else was always left holding the bag."

But even as Cutter insisted the campaign is not criticizing “how Romney ran his company,” the ad itself contains several direct rebukes of the former Bain executive’s stewardship of GST, rather than his overall economic philosophy.

Towards the end of the ad, former GST worker Joe Soptic explicitely condemns Romney’s job at Bain.

“If he's going to run the country the way he ran our business, I wouldn't want him there,” Soptic says as the camera pans over newspaper clippings about Bain putting “profits first” under Romney. 

“We view Mitt Romney as a job destroyer,” says another former employee, John Wiseman -– another suggestion by the campaign that Romney’s job at Bain and his “economic values” are intertwined. 

Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

George W. Bush pushed for a federal ban on same-sex marriage during his 2004 re-election run. But Bush has since said he favors civil unions, and now, days after President Obama announced his support for same-sex marriage, his pollster from that race is recommending Republicans come around on same-sex marriage and gay rights.

In a memo penned Friday and which made the rounds this weekend, Jan R. van Lohuizen writes, in part, “As people who promote personal responsibility, family values, commitment and stability, and emphasize freedom and limited government we have to recognize that freedom means freedom for everyone. This includes the freedom to decide how you live and to enter into relationships of your choosing, the freedom to live without excessive interference of the regulatory force of government."

Memorandum
From: Jan R. van Lohuizen
Date: 05/11/12
Re: Same Sex Marriage

Background: in view of this week’s news on the same sex marriage issue, here is a summary of recent survey findings on same sex marriage:

1. Support for same sex marriage has been growing and in the last few years support has grown at an accelerated rate with no sign of slowing down. A review of public polling shows that up to 2009 support for gay marriage increased at a rate of 1% a year. Starting in 2010 the change in the level of support accelerated to 5% a year. The most recent public polling shows supporters of gay marriage outnumber opponents by a margin of roughly 10% (for instance: NBC / WSJ poll in February / March: support 49%, oppose 40%).

2. The increase in support is taking place among all partisan groups. While more Democrats support gay marriage than Republicans, support levels among Republicans are increasing over time. The same is true of age: younger people support same sex marriage more often than older people, but the trends show that all age groups are rethinking their position.

3. Polling conducted among Republicans show that majorities of Republicans and Republican leaning voters support extending basic legal protections to gays and lesbians. These include majority Republican support for:

a. Protecting gays and lesbians against being fired for reasons of sexual orientation
b. Protections against bullying and harassment
c. Repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell.
d. Right to visit partners in hospitals
e. Protecting partners against loss of home in case of severe medical emergencies or death
f. Legal protection in some form for gay couples whether it be same sex marriage or domestic partnership (only 29% of Republicans oppose legal recognition in any form).

Recommendation: A statement reflecting recent developments on this issue along the following lines:

“People who believe in equality under the law as a fundamental principle, as I do, will agree that this principle extends to gay and lesbian couples; gay and lesbian couples should not face discrimination and their relationship should be protected under the law. People who disagree on the fundamental nature of marriage can agree, at the same time, that gays and lesbians should receive essential rights and protections such as hospital visitation, adoption rights, and health and death benefits.

Other thoughts / Q&A:

Follow up to questions about affirmative action: “This is not about giving anyone extra protections or privileges, this is about making sure that everyone – regardless of sexual orientation – is provided the same protections against discrimination that you and I enjoy.”
Why public attitudes might be changing: “As more people have become aware of friends and family members who are gay, attitudes have begun to shift at an accelerated pace. This is not about a generational shift in attitudes, this is about people changing their thinking as they recognize their friends and family members who are gay or lesbian.”

Conservative fundamentals: “As people who promote personal responsibility, family values, commitment and stability, and emphasize freedom and limited government we have to recognize that freedom means freedom for everyone. This includes the freedom to decide how you live and to enter into relationships of your choosing, the freedom to live without excessive interference of the regulatory force of government."

*** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) on same-sex marriage, sequestration, 2012 and more… National Journal’s Jim Tankersley and CNBC’s Becky Quick on the J.P. Morgan mess and what more it could do to the markets… A deep dive with Eric Swalwell on his upcoming primary challenge to Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA)… More 2012 headlines with the Washington Post’s Dan Balz, The Hill’s A.B. Stoddard and Daniella Gibbs Leger of the Center for American Progress.

*** Monday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), National Faith & Freedom Coalition President Ralph Reed, DCCC Chairman Rep Steve. Israel (D-NY), Dem strategist Steve McMahon; GOP strategist Robert Traynham, USA Today’s Jackie Kucinich, and Townhall.com’s Katie Pavlich.

*** Monday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviews Democratic strategist David Goodfriend, GOP strategist Hogan Gidley, and Bishop Harry Jackson & Rev. Irene Monroe (on gay marriage).

 *** Monday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi, NBCLatino.com’s Alicia Menendez, Georgetown University Professor Michael Eric Dyson, MSNBC Contributor Jimmy Williams, BuzzFeed’s McKay Coppins, and CNBC’s Eamon Javers.

*** Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Luke Russert, filling in for Andrea Mitchell, interviews NBC’s Chuck Todd, Center for American Progress Pres. Neera Tanden, Newsweek & The Daily Beast’s Michelle Goldberg, CNBC’s Brian Sullivan, NBC’s Mark Potter, and the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart.

*** Monday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews the Washington Post’s Anne Kornblut, Michael Smerconish, and Zachary Karabell.

How much will gay marriage matter? AP goes to Ohio to find out: “[S]ix months from an election that will decide whether the president keeps his job, a question hovers over the moment: Was it, somehow, a game-changer? In three very different regions of a state where the election could be won or lost, voters themselves have been considering that. And their reflections reveal something far more pragmatic than an electorate that shifts its views because of the headline of the day, no matter how historic. Allie is but one example, a voter as adamant in his opposition to same-sex marriage as he is in his support -- still -- of Obama. In his words: ‘The world is bigger than gay marriage.’”

On Sunday, the New York Times wrote that Romney’s foreign-policy statements have left many GOP observers scratching their heads. “Dozens of subtle position papers flow through the candidate’s policy shop and yet seem to have little influence on Mr. Romney’s hawkish-sounding pronouncements, on everything from war to nuclear proliferation to the trade-offs in dealing with China. In the Afghanistan case, ‘none of us could quite figure out what he was advocating,’ one of Mr. Romney’s advisers said. He insisted on anonymity — as did a half-dozen others interviewed over the past two weeks — because the Romney campaign has banned any discussion of the process by which the candidate formulates his positions.”

“Mitt Romney on Saturday only briefly reaffirmed his opposition to same sex marriage – triggering a standing ovation – in a closely-watched commencement address at Liberty University in which the presumptive Republican nominee spoke in deeply religious terms about his family, his faith, and the country,” the Boston Globe writes.

“Mitt Romney spoke at a controversial Christian university Saturday to make a bid for Evangelical voters — and touted his conservative credentials by slamming same-sex marriage,” the New York Daily News writes.

“The Romney campaign on Sunday released a Mother’s Day video tribute to the candidate’s wife, Ann, a stay-at-home mom who reared the couple’s five boys,” the Boston Globe writes. “While the four-minute video features all five Romney sons praising their mother’s patience and love, in spite of their boisterousness, it does not include comments from Mitt Romney or any stories about the presumptive Republican nominee’s rambunctious behavior.” And: “That contrasts sharply with the family-themed video released by the campaign last month, which showed Ann Romney recounting the challenge of raising ‘six boys.’”

The Washington Examiner’s Klein, labeling Romney as “Mr. Nice Guy,” ticks off examples of Romney’s generosity.

The Hill: “Mitt Romney should visit Israel soon, Republican lawmakers say, claiming that such a trip would highlight the fact that President Obama has not been there during his first term.”

The AP: “President Barack Obama is casting Mitt Romney as a greedy, job-killing corporate titan with little concern for the working class in a new, multi-pronged effort that seeks to undermine the central rationale for his Republican rival's candidacy: his business credentials.” More: “The commercial will be coupled with a series of events Obama's campaign is holding this week in Florida, Missouri, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina to highlight Romney's role at Bain Capital, a company he co-founded… Vice President Joe Biden was holding two days of events in Ohio, where he was expected to discuss Romney's role as a corporate buyout specialist.”

“The president's re-election team hopes that the targeted push will help undermine Romney's standing on economic issues, which polls show to be the area where he has a decided advantage over the president going into November,” The Hill writes. And remember this? “During the Republican primary, challenger Newt Gingrich also hammered Romney on his time in the private sector. A super-PAC supporting Gingrich's efforts released a half-hour long commercial titled ‘When Mitt Romney Came to Town’ that offered a wholesale indictment of Bain Capital and Romney's work there.” Here’s that full video.

“President Barack Obama will spend Monday in New York City, and his comments in support of same-sex marriage appear likely to be a principal focus of discussion,” AP writes. “Obama is scheduled to deliver the commencement address at Barnard College, where he'll share the stage with Evan Wolfson, the founder of the pro-gay group Freedom to Marry.” That’s in addition to the fundraiser with Ricky Martin and commencement speech at Barnard.

Newsweek going for the provocative, dubs Obama -- with a rainbow halo – “The first gay president.”

“President Obama is banking on his endorsement of gay marriage to fill his campaign coffers,” the New York Daily News writes. “His team is selling a slew of LGBT merchandise on BarackObama.com, just days after his historic backing of same-sex couples tying the knot. The items include ‘I'm out for Obama’ T-shirts, beer koozies that read ‘LGBT for Obama’ and even baby onesies with messages like ‘My two moms support Obama.’ The items cost anywhere from $10 to $40.”

Political Wire: “David Parker, the embattled chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, says he's staying on the job after party activists rejected his resignation, the AP reports.”

“The time has come for would-be vice presidential candidates to bare their fangs,” National Journal writes. “Republican senators Marco Rubio, Rob Portman, John Thune and Kelly Ayotte all attacked President Obama within the past week. They appeared on Sunday talk shows and penned articles on the Fox News website. They targeted issues from student loans to Iran to same-sex marriage.”

The Boston Globe looks at potential VPs.

AYOTTE: On Mother’s Day, the Foster’s Daily Democrat writes: “Senator Mom.”

NPR looked at Kelly Ayotte as veep.

CHRISTIE: “Tick. Tick. Tick. Is it the sound of time passing on a conflicted, year-old criminal investigation of an alleged $245,000 pension fraud involving New Jersey Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno?” New Jesrey Watchdog writes. “Or is it the countdown to an embarrassing scandal for her boss, Gov. Chris Christie — a rising political star who declared pension reform as his ‘biggest governmental victory?’”

He’s still against same-sex marriage.

JINDAL: Some Jindal buzz.

MCDONNELL: He tells the AP the time might be right in Virginia for tax reform, including broadening the base and lowering overall rates.

PAWLENTY: He said this last month about being veep: "Well I've taken my name off the list for Vice President so we should talk about Marco Rubio and the other great possibilities that Mitt Romney will have. Look when you put up Mitt Romney and whoever he picks against President Obama and his failed leadership and his failed economy I think that ticket on the Romney side is going to do very very well. I've taken my name off the list."

RUBIO: Time asks, “Can Marco Rubio Win More Latinos Over to the GOP?”

RYAN: The Washington Post: “Ryan budget still an issue in congressional races.”

THUNE: Thune on being VP: "I don't think you ever rule out opportunities or options when you're involved in public life and you say you want to make a difference and you're serious about that, obviously, then you don't foreclose options. But in my view, I have a job to do in the United States Senate, I like what I'm doing. I think I can make a difference there.”

Tighten regulations? Nah. “Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), chairman of the Senate Republican conference and a lead critic of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, warned Sunday against jumping to the conclusion that the $2 billion loss JPMorgan Chase incurred on a risky bet means regulations need to be tighter,” The Hill writes. Thune said, “We need to make sure we get all facts before jumping to conclusions about the need for greater financial regulation.”

“Congress is producing little this election year that will become law, yet both parties are churning out bills designed to make the other side look bad,” the AP notes.

Did you know Rep. Kristi Noem got her college degree a week ago? And she’s trying to use it against Obama, saying his policies are hurting recent graduates, like her (except that she has a job -- and a highly paid one, too!).

The Colombian prostitute at the center of the Secret Service scandal requested a meeting with Rep. Peter King, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee. But he turned down the request.

The New York Times wrote over the weekend that some Tea Party Senate candidates “say they have not decided whether they would support Mr. McConnell, who could find himself contending with the type of fractious rank and file that has vexed the House speaker, John A. Boehner of Ohio.”

“The cautious approach that top Republicans have taken on whether to vote to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress has sparked a new round of hand-wringing over the party’s direction on Capitol Hill,” Politico writes. “Specifically, conservatives want bolder, more aggressive leadership from House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and the rest of GOP high command — on Holder and the broader Republican agenda heading into November.”

Not that they’re thrilled with Eric Cantor, either with some on the right claiming he’s too BIPARTISAN.

LYNCHBURG, Va. -- Delivering a commencement address at the country's largest Christian school, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney on Saturday defended traditional marriage and said there is common ground between his Mormon faith and that of the largely evangelical crowd. 

Speaking to more than 30,000 packed into Liberty University's football stadium, Romney drew his loudest applause from his proclamation: "Marriage is a relationship between one man and one woman."

But it was one of the few specifics the former Massachusetts governor gave at the deeply religious campus. 

Liberty's decision to invite Romney, a Mormon, to deliver the commencement at the Christian school founded by Baptist Minister Jerry Falwell drew criticism from some on campus who feel Romney's beliefs contradict the school's teachings.  The university offers a theology course that describes Mormonism as a cult. 

Romney only alluded to his faith, telling the crowd: "People of different faiths, like yours and mine, sometimes wonder where we can meet in common purpose, when there are so many differences in creed and theology. Surely the answer is that we can meet in service, in shared moral convictions about our nation stemming from a common worldview." 

The candidate's religion was never directly addressed, but the school's chancellor and son of its founder, Jerry Falwell Jr., seemed to scratch the surface of some of this community's concerns in his introduction of Romney.

"My father often preached that Christians should vote for the candidate whose positions on the political issues are most closely aligned with their own," said Falwell. "Not the candidate who shares his or her faith or theology. We are, after all, electing a commander-in-chief, not a pastor or religious leader." 

While many in the audience were impressed by the 20-minute address, especially Romney's hardline stance in support of traditional marriage, there was also acknowledgment that his Mormonism will make it more difficult for the Republican to fire up young evangelical voters.

Members if the Class of 2012 frequently cited that, personally, religion did not disqualify anyone from the White House. But many were also quick to add that they knew others who did not share their view. 

"I think that he did a really great job, considering he came in front of thousands of people that he knew disagreed with certain things," said Sara Colein, who graduated Saturday. Still, the Maryland native was quick to acknowledge Romney's problem with the crowd here is "the fact that he is a Mormon and certain differences we have when it comes to Jesus Christ." 

Stephen Jones, also a member of the Class of 2012 said, "I think the one thing that is going to be the glaring problem is going to be the deity of Jesus Christ."   

Still, Jones, added, "I think that, if you compare him to Obama, I think yes, we'll side with him a lot better than we will Obama." 

Speaking at Liberty University is a right of passage for conservative politicians, who come here to pay homage to an important block of the Republican Party.  Former GOP presidential hopefuls Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain visited the school in the fall, each touting the importance of God and reinforcing their commitment to the evangelical values preached at the university. 

But leading up to Saturday's address, Romney advisers made clear the candidate would not go in depth on the issues. "It is a speech for the graduates and their parents," one adviser said. 

And though it had more political implications than his campaign originally let on, it was, largely, a graduation speech. 

"Today, thanks to what you have gained here, you leave Liberty with conviction and confidence as your armor. You know what you believe. You know who you are. And you know whom you will serve. Not all colleges instill that kind of confidence, but it will be among the most prized qualities from your education here," said Romney. "Moral certainty, clear standards, and a commitment to spiritual ideals will set you apart in a world that searches for meaning."