Updated Fri., June 1, 10:38 a.m. - President Barack Obama finds himself in a political game of "beat the clock," in which each successive economic report increases in electoral importance.

Pool / Getty Images

President Obama, along with his supporters and allies, will likely do what they've done for the past 19 months: hail employment growth but say there's much more work to be done.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a report Friday reflecting dismal growth in employment in the month of May, an indicator of the rate at which the economy's recovery from the recession might have slowed.

The economy added only 69,000 jobs in May, well below economists' expectations. As a result, the unemployment rate ticked upward to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in April.

The White House stressed what it has for the past 19 months, hailing employment growth but saying there's much more work to be done.

"[O]ur economy is facing serious headwinds, including the crisis in Europe and a spike in gas prices that hit American families’ finances over the past months," said Alan Kreuger, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. He added a note of caution: "It is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available."

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and his Republican allies, meanwhile, pounced, arguing that the recovery would be more robust if not for the Democratic incumbent.

"The president's re-election slogan may be ‘forward,’ but it seems like we've been moving backward," Romney said. "We can do so much better in America. That's why I'm running for president."

But the administration’s biggest challenge might be on the calendar, not the campaign trail.

Voters’ sense of the nation’s economic trajectory tends to take shape in the summertime, said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University who’s developed predictive models for presidential elections.

“It's more a matter of how people perceive the direction of the economy, and that's going to be influenced by these reports as they come out,” he said, stressing in particular the importance of midsummer numbers on gross domestic product growth in the second quarter.

Right now, the economic numbers for Obama are essentially borderline –- a variable in keeping with the closeness of the campaign between the president and Romney.

“You would think, based on some of the indicators, if Gov. Romney were making a stronger argument, he should have an advantage in a weak economy,” said former Virginia Rep. Tom Perriello, a Democrat who heads the Center for American Progress’s Action Fund.

GDP figures from the first quarter, released on Thursday, were revised downward to show the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent from January through March. And the economy added 115,000 jobs in April.

Both numbers are positive but lag behind the political expectations for the strength of the recovery, especially since Obama’s in his fourth year in office.

First Thoughts: Observations on the latest presidential polls

Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, suggested that while Obama might not have much time to change underlying impressions, that level of growth might be enough.

“I don’t think he’s the underdog here,” she said of the president.

She said it’s hard for a challenger like Romney to “steal” an election just by arguing that growth hasn’t been on pace.

“These guys are not stealing these elections away from the incumbent party by arguing about whether the economy has been good enough, or whether the growth has been enough,” she said.

Voters’ sense of the trajectory of the economy matters, too. Job creation and GDP growth were far better in late 2011 and the beginning of this year than they seem to have been in the past few months, feeding into a sense that the pace of the economic recovery has slowed.

That sense pervaded the May NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which showed Americans’ approval of Obama’s overall job performance and handling of the economy had each ticked downward. Not by coincidence, the horse race between Obama and Romney tightened, too.

To make matters worse, the window is closing on Obama’s opportunity to convince voters that things are improving. At some point, the overall perception of the direction of the economy will be “baked in,” and that raises the stakes for the next few months of economic figures.

“It's important, and it may be the most important thing, given that we're heading toward a close election –-  more important than any campaign event or advertisement,” said Abramowitz. “It's probably going to have more impact if it happens soon, rather than at the end.”

Perriello cautioned, though, about a gap between “substance” and politics, noting that Republicans’ push to cut government spending -– a kind of austerity agenda along the lines of what many Europeans have pursued -– might have contributed to a slowdown for which Obama gets blamed.

NBC-Marist polls: Obama, Romney deadlocked in three key states

“It's not often in history you get a chance to see what would have happened under the Republican approach,” he said, referring to downturns in various European economies. “The politics of that are that if you're in the White House, you have to answer for what the unemployment rate is."

There are other looming variables that could shake up the trajectory of the election. A foreign policy episode in Iran, Syria or elsewhere could dethrone the economy as the No. 1 issue.

Or, when it comes to the economy, a deterioration of the financial situation in European economies could have reverberating effects in the U.S., the political outcome of which is mostly uncertain.

That’s not even to mention the millions of dollars that will be spent by Romney, Obama and their respective supporters to spin responsibility for the economic climate.

“There’s this big elephant that’s out there,” Vavreck said. 

The political playbook isn't a new one for an incumbent, especially one who's facing a difficult contest.

Turn the race into a choice, not a referendum; argue that progress has been made, no matter how slowly or controversially; and link your opponent to your even more unpopular predecessor.

Of course, we're talking about President Obama's campaign playbook against Mitt Romney.

But we also could be talking about Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) -- who has followed this exact same script in his recall battle against Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) that takes place on Tuesday.

While Walker couldn't be more different ideologically and stylistically from Obama, he and his allies in this recall have:
-- tried to disqualify Barrett as a suitable replacement (just like the Obama campaign has tried to do to Romney);
-- made the case that the economy has improved, even if it's been incremental (ditto Team Obama);
-- and argued that replacing Barrett with Walker would take voters back to the days of the unpopular Gov. Jim Doyle (D) administration (hello, George W. Bush).

"There's a polarized electorate for both, with the majority of people locked in. And the swing voters need to see a choice -- that benefits the incumbent," says one Democratic official who is watching both races.

"If they only see it as a referendum on performance, then the failure to change mood alone could be devastating. If they can make it about the other guy, they're OK."

Is that playbook working for Walker? A recent Marquette Law School poll finds Walker leading Barrett by seven percentage points among likely voters, 52%-45%. But Democrats point to their own internal polls showing a much closer race.

Three big differences between Walker and Obama
To be sure, there are some importance differences between Wisconsin's gubernatorial recall and November's presidential contest.

For one thing, the nature of a recall is much different than a presidential election. (That could very well explain why Obama leads Romney, 51%-43%, in that same Marquette poll -- some Democrats and pro-Obama voters, even if they don't approve of Walker's job, might not think he should be recalled from an office he won less than two years ago.)

In addition, Barrett has had very little time between winning his primary (on May 8) and this general election (June 5). By comparison, Romney has been the presumptive GOP nominee since April, giving him seven months to run a general-election race after his primary battle.

And then there's money. Walker and his allies have a sizable ad-spending advantage over Barrett and his allies, $23 million to $8.5 million, according to NBC/SMG Delta ad-buying numbers. While the Obama campaign has more money than the Romney camp, outside conservative groups will more than make up the difference.

Mike Schrimpf, communications director at the Republican Governors Association, points to another difference. "In the Walker scenarios, his advantages on the dominate issues -- taxes, spending, role of government -- all of those issues favor Gov. Walker's policies. He has taken an approach that's clearly different than President Obama."

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski doesn't see a comparison between the Obama and Walker playbooks. "Walker is running a campaign based on his accomplishments and reforms, talking about the economy and jobs he's created, businesses that have moved into the state. Obama doesn't have a record to run on."

Choice vs. referendum
Despite the differences, the similarities in campaign strategy are striking.

Just look at the pro-Walker TV ad campaign, which has tried to paint Barrett as an unacceptable alternative. One Walker ad portrays Barrett for being soft on crime:

This two year old spent six days in intensive care after being severely beaten, but Tom Barrett’s police department didn’t consider it a violent crime. Tom Barrett claims, “Violent crime is down 15.5 percent.” But the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel found that hundreds of beatings, stabbings, and child abuse cases were never even counted. Violent crime in Milwaukee is up, and Tom Barrett isn’t telling the truth.

Another one hits him for being a big spender:

Tom Barrett wants to spend more than 100 million dollars on a trolley for Milwaukee.  Now that’s the kind of reckless spending that left Wisconsin with more than a 3 billion dollar deficit. 

"Things are getting better"
Walker and his allies also have pointed to signs of an improving economy -- just like Obama and his supporters have.

Consider this Walker ad, in which he looks to the camera:

I've got some bad news for Tom Barrett, but good news for Wisconsin. The government just released the new jobs numbers. And as it turns out, Wisconsin actually gained -- yes, gained -- more than 20,000 new jobs during my first year in office. Add the jobs created this office, the total goes to over 30,000.

The Republican Governors Association has aired this ad:

Since Scott Walker became governor, Wisconsin has gained over 30,000 jobs. Fact.  

But Democrats have disputed those figures. And Politifact Wisconsin says, "To reach the number, he combined two data sets - one that involves unofficial (but generally more accurate) numbers that could change in the weeks after the election; the other is volatile, but still official monthly numbers. From an accounting standpoint this would be flagged as a mistake. From a political standpoint, he is mixing and matching to present the best possible view."

Tying your opponent to the old regime
And Walker and his supporters have tried to link Barrett to the previous governor, Jim Doyle (D) -- just like the Obama campaign has stressed that Romney's policies are no different than George W. Bush's.

Take this RGA ad, for example:

Where would you go if you could travel in a time machine? How about back to 2010 to Gov. Doyle’s administration? I didn’t think so. Under Jim Doyle, unemployment in Wisconsin went up 37%. Taxes went up $1.6 billion. That’s exactly what would happen if we made Tom Barrett governor.

There are additional similarities, too: Both Walker and Obama have passionate bases, and they have well-financed campaign machines.

If Walker prevails on Tuesday -- and Democrats are quick to point out  that this race is far from over -- then he'll have this playbook to thank.

But then the question becomes: Will it work for Obama in November? And who is paying more attention to it? The Obama campaign or the Romney campaign?

NBC's Katherine Faulders contributed to this story.

NEW YORK -– Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) put his foreign policy credentials on center stage on Thursday during an appearance before the Council on Foreign Relations.

On the heels of a trip to the military detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, the possible vice presidential contender warned that negotiations with Iran are likely to fail, raising the prospects of a military action against Iran.

"I think we need to begin to prepare the people of the country and the world to the reality that negotiations are probably not going to work and ultimately sanctions may also not work," Rubio told TIME managing editor Richard Stengel. "And at that point -– very cautious when you say this because I don’t want to come across as some kind of saber rattling person, because I’m not -- but I am in line with what the administration has said, which is ultimately, a military option may be necessary."

Rubio was less hesitant to break from the administration on other issues, such as the president’s  handling of Syria.  Rubio called on the United States to play a more active role in supporting Syrian rebels, saying the country’s reputation is at stake.

“Countries are looking at that as a test case of whether the U.S. is still going to be a significant player in the region or not, and they’re very pragmatic in that region and they’re going to make decisions based on whatever they conclude,” said Rubio. “And if they conclude that the U.S. is on its way out, no longer willing to engage in the Middle East, they’ll make decisions based on that reality.”

Rubio’s stop at the Council of Foreign Relations comes in a week where another speculative vice presidential contender is also traveling overseas. Ohio Sen. Rob Portman traveled to Israel and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney has suffered some criticism from Democrats for a lack of foreign policy experience. Picking a running mate with strong credentials in that area could help neutralize any perceived weaknesses.

But Rubio, who has denied any interest in joining the ticket, made it a point to quickly dismiss the question he got about it today. 

“Vice President Rubio has a good ring to it, doesn’t it?” Stengel asked.

“No,” Rubio dryly replied. “I appreciate you trying to work that in, though.”

FREMONT, CA -- Mitt Romney decried what he said was the Obama administration's economic failures and cronyism outside the headquarters of a defunct company that Republicans have upheld as the very symbol of those shortcomings.

The presumptive presidential nominee stood for an impromptu press conference outside the headquarters of Solyndra, the now-bankrupt solar energy company that had been the beneficiary of a federal loan, which, Republicans contend, was doled out as a political favor.

"It's a symbol not of success but of failure. It's also a symbol of a serious conflict of interest," Romney said outside the headquarters, a destination which wasn't made public until the last possible minute, even to the traveling press corps that cover the former Massachusetts governor.

"An independent inspector general looked at this investment and concluded that the administration had steered money to friends and family - to campaign contributors," Romney said, referring to a series of loans which backstopped the company and would have paid investors back before taxpayers. "This building, this half a billion dollar taxpayer investment, represents a serious conflict of interest on the part of the president and his team."

The bankrupt company's opulent headquarters, long a target of Romney's derision on the stump, made for a powerful visual backdrop as Romney lambasted what he said was the company -- and the president's -- failings.

"It's also a symbol of how the president thinks about free enterprise," Romney continued. "Free enterprise to the president means taking money from the taxpayers and giving it freely to his friends."

The appearance came amid a battle over optics between the Romney and Obama campaigns that literally stretched the continent.

In Boston this morning, the senior strategist for the president's re-election, David Axelrod, rallied other supporters of Obama's on the steps of the Massachusetts statehouse to decry Romney's lone term as governor. Axelrod had intended to highlight what he said were Romney's broken promises as governor, though that message was muddled as a Romney campaign aide gathered supporters to heckle Axelrod, drawing the Chicago Democrat into an exchange over their jeers.

"Romney economics didn't work then and it won't work now," Axelrod said over the boos of the pro-Romney crowd.

Here in Fremont, a reporter asked Romney about the guerrilla tactics employed by his campaign.

"Many of the events I go to, there are large groups of, if you will, Obama supporters there heckling me. And at some point you say, you know what, sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. If they’re going to be heckling us, why we’re not going to sit back and play by very different rules," Romney said. "If the president is going to have his people coming to my rallies, and heckling, why, we’ll show them that, you know, we conservatives have the same kind of capacity he does."

But amid the campaign trail antics, Romney also took a moment to address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Syria following a massacre this past weekend leading to the deaths of 100 civilians. Romney has repeatedly urged U.S. allies in the region, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to arm anti-government rebels and provide other aid necessary to remove the Assad regime from power.

Romney called the coordinated expulsion of Syrian diplomats by the United States and other allies "of course the right thing to do," but also a "very small matter in something as significant as the course of Syria."

"I hope we understand that Syria and what's going on there is a a ray of sunshine in the Middle East because you have a very dangerous tyrant, who has allied his country with Iran, which is seeking to become a dominant power in the middle east," Romney said.

"Syria is the headquarters of Hamas in the middle east. It is Iran's only Arab ally. Syria is the route for arming Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is important to see a change in leadership in Syria," Romney continued, adding that the peace plan implemented there by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was not"advancing in the way I think we could be advancing," and calling on President Obama to take a greater leadership role in resolving the crisis.

Former President George W. Bush and former first lady Laura Bush were back at the White House on Thursday for the unveiling of their official portraits.

President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama welcomed their predecessors to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for an event devoid of partisanship, setting aside the political differences between the two administrations.

“Mr. President, thank you for your warm hospitality. Madam First Lady, thank you so much for inviting our rowdy friends to my hanging," Bush said to laughter before an audience that included his two daughters, a number of former aides and his mother and father, former President George H.W. Bush and former first lady Barbara Bush.

Bush's laugh line was just one of many lighter moments in a ceremony that might have otherwise had the potential for awkwardness, given the frequency with which Obama often says his successor's policies are to blame for the nation's current woes.

Obama didn't shy away from addressing one of the biggest shared issue of their presidencies: the economic crisis that took hold in 2008.

“Over those two and a half months, in the midst of that crisis, President Bush, his Cabinet, his staff, many of you who are here today went out of your ways -- George, you went out of your way, to make sure that the transition to a new administration was as seamless as possible,” Obama said.

Charles Dharapak / AP

President Barack Obama gestures toward former President George W. Bush, former first lady Laura Bush and first lady Michelle Obama, in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Thursday, May 31, 2012, during a ceremony where the Bush's portraits were unveiled.

And Obama gave Bush his due for their shared role in hunting down Osama bin Laden:

“That's why my first call, once American forces were safely out of harm's way, was to President Bush because protecting our country is neither the work of one person nor the task of one period of time. It's an ongoing obligation that we all share.”

Any of the weightier matters were dispelled, though, by Bush's laugh-out-loud performance. He started off saying how pleased he was that the White House portrait collection now begins and ends with a "George W." (or George Washington).

“When the British burned the White House ... in 1814, Dolly Madison famously saved this portrait of the first George W. Now Michelle, if anything happens, there's your man,” Bush joked. (During her speech, First Lady Michelle Obama promised she’d go straight for his portrait.)

And former President Bush didn’t spare the current president: “I am also pleased, Mr. President, that when you are wandering these halls as you wrestle with tough decisions, you will now be able to gaze at this portrait and ask: What would George do?"

The event was somewhat of a family affair; at least 14 members of the Bush clan were on hand for the official unveiling of the portraits, which were done by artist John Howard Sanden.

Noting everyone assembled, Bush joked upon introducing Laura: “It is my privilege to introduce the greatest first lady ever. Sorry, Mom. Would you agree to a tie?”

Laura Bush didn’t miss a beat, either.

"It was really gracious of you to invite us back to the White House to hang a few family pictures. And I'm sure you know nothing makes a house a home like having portraits of its former occupants staring down at you from the wall,” the former first lady said.

Bush’s portrait, which was completed in 2011, depicted him standing in the Oval Office; Laura Bush’s portrait has her in the Green Room. The former first lady’s portrait was finished early this year. Bush 43’s portrait will hang down a hall from his father’s portrait in the White House, a point that made for a poignant moment.  “I am honored to be hanging near a man who gave me the greatest gift possible: unconditional love. And that would be number 41,” he said, to sustained applause.

Political gamesmanship enveloped a battle over legislation to prevent student loan rates from doubling at the end of June, as House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) denied that Republicans had resigned themselves to the notion that no deal could be struck.

Boehner and New York Sen. Charles Schumer (NY), Democrats’ messaging chief in the Senate, waged a war of words on Capitol Hill on Thursday following a Politico report that House Republican leaders had told their rank-and-file members that reaching an agreement to prevent student loan rates from jumping was “unlikely.”

The report prompted Schumer to pounce on the issue, which is imbued with election-year politics.

"These overheard comments by Speaker Boehner confirm our suspicions that Republicans were never serious about wanting to stop rates from doubling on college students,” he said in a statement. “To many on the hard right, government should not play a role in helping students afford college. Speaker Boehner seems to be following their lead and throwing in the towel on this issue a month before the deadline.”

If Congress does not act, student loan interest rates would rise from 3.4 percent to 6.8 percent. Both President Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney said they support legislation to prevent the jump, though the hangup in Congress has revolved around how to finance the cost of that bill.

Recognizing the political potency of the issue, Boehner’s office pushed back hard against Schumer and sought to clarify the speaker’s closed door comments.

"Boehner told the members that the president wants to fabricate fights on things like student loans because he's out of ideas; he doesn't want to talk about his record or his failed policies.  Told them the House has passed a responsible bill, and that we are waiting on Senate Democrats,” said spokesman Michael Steel. “But that if the interest rate lapses because of their inaction we can fix it retroactively.  He also reiterated what he's said before … that if there's a solution that can pass both chambers, we're ready to talk about it."

Congress has been in a stalemate over how to pay for extending the current student loan interest rates into 2013. The cost totals $6 billion, and House Republicans want to pay for it by taking money from a preventative health fund created under President Obama’s healthcare law. Senate Democrats want to close a tax loophole that large corporations use to avoid Federal taxes.

The House passed their version of the bill; so far, the Senate has not passed anything.

Going a step further so as to prevent being painted as intransigent, House and Senate Republican leaders sent a letter later on Thursday to Obama, outlining three possible ways they would be willing to pay for the price tag of the student loan bill. Those possibilities are outlined here.

NBC's Garrett Haake

Mitt Romney (R) on the campaign press bus heading to the former site of the company Solyndra.

UPDATED AT 3 PM ET

FREMONT, CA -- When Mitt Romney arrived at the gates of the bankrupt solar energy company Solyndra this afternoon, he didn't do it before cheering supporters or backed by a large coterie of staff.

He pulled up on the press bus with the rest of his traveling media contingent.

Romney's staff, fearful, they said, of being blocked by the administration from holding an event here, kept the location of today's press conference secret, even from the press who cover the candidate.

On Wednesday, reporters who cover the candidate were told to get themselves from Las Vegas to San Francisco for an "event" in the bay area on Thursday. No other details were given, except to be ready at a hotel parking lot early this morning.

Professionally curious, the Romney press corps set about cracking the secret code of the event and breaking the story.

"I've got nothing for ya," one aide told NBC.

"Sorry, can't help you," replied another Romney staffer via email, complete with a frowny face emoticon.

And so it was this morning, when 31 members of the national and local press boarded a bus in the parking lot of the Holiday Inn Express, armed only with educated guesses – no reportable confirmation – that Romney was headed to Solyndra.

Message discipline, and an inner circle that sees leaks as treasonous, won this round.

The secrecy, one top aide explained, was to prevent the Obama administration blocking the event from taking place. The aide did not explain how that might happen.

The aide also said the campaign did not fear protesters disrupting the event, as pro-Romney protesters and staff did to Obama senior adviser David Axelrod this morning at an event on the steps of the statehouse in Boston.

Then, Romney boarded the bus.

Beyond a cursory wave and good morning, he didn't chat with the press, but rode in relative silence with a small group of aides and a few Secret Service agents surrounding him in the front of the bus.

Romney was asked why the event -- which ultimately lasted only about 10 minutes on a Nimitz Highway median -- was kept so secret. He offered a somewhat conspiratorial answer.

"I think there are people who don’t want to see this event occur, don’t want to have questions asked about this particular investment, don’t want to have people delve into the idea that the president took a half-a-billion dollars of taxpayer money and devoted it to an enterprise that was owned in large measure by his campaign contributors," Romney said.

This is the former Massachusetts governor's first trip to Solyndra, but he regularly highlights its failing, despite support from governmental loans, in his stump speeches and fundraisers.

A new Kaiser Foundation finds people think President Obama would be better for women than Mitt Romney on a host of issues, including who's looking out for their best interests, who'd be best to deal with the future of the health-care law, education, and even national security.

But the one place where Obama doesn't enjoy big leads is on the federal deficit.

On who looks out for the best interests of women, Obama leads 52-26%. Among women voters, it's 59-25%. But on who's best to deal with the deficit, Obama and Romney are essentially tied, with Obama getting the narrow edge, 40-39%, hardly a good sign for an incumbent president.

That vulnerability is one reason the Romney campaign has been pushing the issue. Even on jobs and the economy, President Obama has a 10-point lead.

Here's the question from the poll:

7. Which presidential candidate, (Barack Obama) or (Mitt Romney), do you trust to do a better job (INSERT AND RANDOMIZE)? How about

(NEXT ITEM)? (ROTATE OPTIONS IN PARENTHESES ACROSS INTERVIEWS, BUT NOT WITHIN SAME INTERVIEW) [READ IF NECESSARY: Do

you trust (Barack Obama) or (Mitt Romney) to do a better job (INSERT ITEM)?]

Based on half sample A (n=613)

                                                                                    Obama             Romney            Both     Neither/other     Don’t know/refused

a. Dealing with the future of the 2010 health care law       50                     31                     1          10                     8

b. Making decisions about women’s reproductive

health choices and services                                           52                     25                     1          14                     8

c. Looking out for the best interests of women               56                     26                     2          10                     6

d. Dealing with the federal budget deficit                        40                     39                     1          11                     9

e. Improving education                                                  53                     27                     3          10                     7

f. Dealing with the economy and jobs                             48                     38                     1          9                      4

g. Dealing with the situation in Afghanistan                     50                     28                     2          12                     8

h. Addressing terrorism                                                 50                     30                     4          10                     6

All tied up: New NBC-Marist polls show Obama and Romney deadlocked in CO, IA, and NV… Our four observations on these new surveys… Today’s Obama-Romney message war: Massachusetts vs, Solyndra… Awkward day at the White House with the unveiling of Bush 43’s official portrait… The White House’s Syria challenge… Team Obama’s new Spanish-language ads… In WI recall, Walker leads Barrett by seven points, per new poll… John Paul Stevens criticizes Citizens United decision -- again… And Elizabeth Warren comments on that Native American story.

This photo combo shows President Barack Obama in Chapel Hill, N.C. on April 24, 2012, and Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on April 18, 2012 in Charlotte, N.C.

*** All tied up: A week ago, we released NBC-Marist polls showing President Obama narrowly leading Mitt Romney in the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Today, we’re unveiling a new round of NBC-Marist surveys in three other battleground states -- ones that aren’t polled as often -- showing an even closer race. In Iowa, the two men are tied at 44% among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate; 10% are undecided. In Colorado, Obama gets support from 46% of registered voters, while Romney gets 45%. And in Nevada, the president is at 48% and Romney is at 46%. The margin of error in each of these three surveys is plus-minus 3%, so they are all statistical ties in these battleground states.

*** Four observations: Here are four observations on this new round of polling: One, the numbers pretty much match what the campaigns are seeing -- everything is tightening. Two, Obama has spent more time in Ohio and Virginia than Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada, and it shows, according to our polls. Three, the 10% undecided in Iowa is striking; these folks perhaps know the candidates better than residents of any other state. Also, Obama being below 45% in the Hawkeye State has to concern his campaign. And fourth, all six of these states (FL, OH, VA, CO, IA, NV) were carried by both Bush in ’04 and Obama in ’08. Who wants to bet that, ultimately, these six break the same way in November, or at least four of them?

*** Massachusetts vs. Solyndra: Today, the Obama campaign is targeting Romney’s record in Massachusetts. It has released a web video, which includes testimonials from local politicians, that makes this point, per NBC’s Carrie Dann: During his 2002 gubernatorial campaign, Romney made similar promises -- like using his business experience to create jobs -- but didn’t exactly deliver. At 11:30 am ET in Boston, Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod and Massachusetts politicos hold a press conference on Romney’s gubernatorial record. (The Romney camp has organized an earlier presser in Boston, at 10:00 am.) Meanwhile, Romney remains out in California, and the scuttlebutt among the traveling press corps is that he may have an event outside of the bankrupt Solyndra headquarters. Here’s what Romney said about Solyndra at his fundraiser last night: "Who wants to put money in a solar company when a government puts a half a billion into one of its choice?" Romney asked. “They don't understand how the free economy works." The RNC has a HUGE oppo briefing book they’ve released today focused on Solyndra, adding more fuel to the speculation fire re: Romney’s whereabouts today.

*** An awkward day at the White House: Today, Obama meets with his predecessor George W. Bush -- the man whom the president implicitly criticizes when he talks about the wars and economic conditions he inherited. At 12:10 pm ET, the Obamas and the Bushes (as well as Bush 41 and his wife) have lunch at the White House. And then, at 1:25 pm, they unveil the official White House portraits for George W. Bush and former First Lady Laura Bush. A.W.K.W.A.R.D. Then again, Bush 43 ran his entire 2000 campaign against his predecessor, and they ended up bonding. While we don’t expect the same level of camaraderie, it’s actually one of those rare opportunities for Obama to grab the higher ground in these tough polarizing times.

*** The Syria challenge: The New York Times today front-pages an analysis looking at the Obama White House’s challenges when it comes to Syria. “Just as strife in the former Yugoslav republic confounded first President George Bush and then his successor, Bill Clinton, the bloody crackdown in Syria — underscored by last week’s massacre of children and other villagers — has put Mr. Obama in a deeply uncomfortable position. With American troops only recently withdrawn from Iraq and still in Afghanistan, the president is loath to engage in new military actions, especially one with few advocates, even among human rights groups. And yet with each passing incident, the scale of the crisis grows.” More: “All the military contingencies that the Pentagon has developed involve a serious commitment of resources, with no low-cost options as in Libya. Unlike in Libya, there is no defined rebel army holding territory that would be helped by airstrikes. Syria has a better trained, better equipped military, including Russian antiaircraft defenses. And there is no United Nations or Arab League support for international force.” There may be no more important meeting in the next month than the one between Obama and Putin that is set to take place while the two attend next month’s G-20 in Mexico. If the U.S. has any hopes of somehow getting Assad to agree to leave power (a la Yemen), it’s going to need Russia’s help.

*** Team Obama’s new Spanish-language (and positive) TV ads: Turning back to the presidential campaign, the Obama camp is up with three new Spanish-language TV ads – once again highlighting testimonials (in Spanish) from Obama campaign workers. Here are the targeted ads in Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. And here’s an important point for everyone who’s talking about how negative the Obama-Romney race is right now: The ads that are running from both campaigns in the key battleground states are ALL mostly positive ads. Chew on that narrative writers!

*** Walker leads Barrett by seven points, per public poll: We’re just five days out until Tuesday’s recall in Wisconsin, and a new Marquette Law School poll shows incumbent Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading challenger Tom Barrett (D) by seven points among likely voters, 52%-45%. (Interestingly, the same poll has Obama leading Romney in this battleground state, by a similar margin, 51%-43%.) Democrats have released their own polling showing a much closer race between Walker and Barrett. Who’s right? We’re just days away from an answer. And by the way, how much is the White House investing in Barrett? Well, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney had to tweet yesterday that the president is supporting Barrett -- after being unable to answer an earlier question about it.

*** John Paul Stevens criticizes Citizens United ruling, argues that SCOTUS might have to revisit the case: Don’t miss this story from NBC’s Pete Williams: “Former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens took a poke at the controversial Citizens United decision Wednesday night and said his former colleagues have probably already had second thoughts about it… Stevens was among the justices who dissented in the court's 5-4 ruling. In remarks prepared for delivery at the University of Arkansas, Stevens predicted that the court will soon be forced to issue rulings that will undermine a key part of the Citizens United ruling -- that the First Amendment ‘prohibits the suppression of political speech based on the speaker's identity,’ including the fact that the speaker is a corporation.” More: “The court's decision left undecided whether the same free speech right applies to foreign corporations. In due course, Stevens said, the court will be called upon to decide that question, forcing it to craft an exception ‘that will create a crack in the foundation of the Citizens United majority opinion.’”

*** Warren comments on Native American story: And there’s news from Massachusetts on that competitive Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren race. The Boston Globe: “Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren acknowledged for the first time late Wednesday night that she told Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania that she was Native American, but she continued to insist that race played no role in her recruitment.” So let’s get this straight: After ducking this story for more than a month and letting it fester, Warren is ONLY NOW releasing this statement?

Countdown to WI recall: 5 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 89 days
Countdown to Dem convention: 96 days
Countdown to Election Day: 160 days

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*** Thursday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) on Tuesday’s recall vote… Marist’s Lee Miringoff with more on the new numbers in Iowa, Nevada and Colorado… A deep dive into Karl Rove’s “3-2-1” strategy for Romney… More 2012 news with The New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny, The Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus and Daniella Gibbs Leger of the Center for American Progress.

*** Thursday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews USA Today’s Jackie Kucinich and the Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne, American Crossroads’ Jonathan Collegio, Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), Dem strategist Neera Tanden, and former Bush 43 spokesman Tony Fratto. Super Pac Guest –Jonathan Collegio – American Crossroads

*** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviews Marist College Poll Director Lee Miringoff, Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston, Obama Campaign Press Secy. Ben LaBolt, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), Rep. Theodore Deutch (D-FL), and GOP Florida Party Chair Lenny Curry.

*** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include U.S. News & World Report Publisher Mort Zuckerman, NY Daily News Columnist S.E. Cupp, Mother Jones Washington Bureau Chief David Corn, Democratic strategist Patti Solis Doyle, “Cronkite” author Douglas Brinkley, and Time’s Michael Scherer.

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Romney campaign press secretary Andrea Saul, Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter, and Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI)

*** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Ambassador Marc Ginsberg on Syria, Salon.com’s Irin Carmon, presidential historian Doug Brinkley, MSNBC contributor Michael Smerconish, Time Assistant Managing Editor Rana Foroohar, Democratic Strategist Richard Fowler, and The Advancement Project’s Judith Browne Dianis.

NPR looks at the voter purge going on in Florida: “Bill Internicola, a 91-yar-old World War II veteran, was born and raised in Brooklyn, N.Y., and now lives in Florida's Broward County. He recently received a letter from county elections officials asking him to show proof he was a U.S. citizen or be removed from the voting rolls. Internicola says he was ‘flabbergasted.’ …

“Internicola's was one of more than 180,000 names Florida's secretary of state identified from motor vehicle records as possible noncitizens. Several weeks ago, the secretary's office sent county elections supervisors a first batch of some 2,600 names. County officials, who are also preparing for the state's August primary, started sending out letters to suspected noncitizens, saying they had 30 days to prove their citizenship or be removed from the voting rolls.”

More: “Democrats and voting-rights groups say the majority of those targeted by the purge are Hispanics and other minority voters. Last week, a coalition of voting-rights groups sent a letter to Detzner asking him to immediately call a halt to the voter purge because they say it's both unfair and illegal. … The secretary of state's office says it reads the law differently and plans to continue its efforts to remove ineligible voters from the rolls.”

Gingrich on Morning Joe, per GOP 12: "I threw the kitchen sink at him [Romney], he threw a bigger kitchen sink at me. It wasn't fun, and so it was personal, there's no question about it."

“After enduring months of polling-based reports about his ‘likeability problem,’ the presumptive Republican presidential nominee now enjoys his highest favorability rating since January, according to a Washington Post/ABC News survey published Wednesday.

Explaining why Romney won’t repudiate Trump, GOP 12 writes: “According to Byron York, the Romney campaign thinks that repudiating Donald Trump would just be the first of many repudiations that the media would demand of Mitt. ‘Team Romney views it as a silly and one-sided game designed to distract voters from the central issue of the race, which they remain convinced will be President Obama's handling of the economy.’More: “Then there's the notion that Romney suffers from a double-standard. For example, the media isn't calling on Obama to repudiate one of his supporters, Bill Maher (btw, the situations aren't analogous. Obama hasn't raised money, standing next to Maher, and I think that'd be a pretty big story if he did). Third, the Romney campaign apparently thinks it's a loser thing to do. McCain was unfailingly gracious in 2008 and look where that got him.”

The LA Times: “Romney has roughed up Obama with a hawkish tone — at times bordering on belligerent. Yet for all his criticisms of the president, it has been difficult to tell exactly what Romney would do differently.”

The New York Times writes that GOP foreign-policy voices have been slow to back Romney. That said, Condi Rice endorsed him yesterday.

“Ann Romney said this week that she ‘completely’ agrees with her husband, the GOP presidential nominee, about 90 percent of the time,” The Hill writes. “‘I completely support 90 percent of where Mitt is,’ Ann Romney told Fox News in an interview set to air Thursday on ‘America’s Newsroom.’ ‘I don’t think we’re ever exactly on the same page 100 percent.’” She didn’t specify where she disagrees.

But one issue might be stem-cell research. Here’s what she said about it in 2004: "I am in favor of stem cell research and I think it can be done morally and ethically," the wife of Gov. Mitt Romney said yesterday. "I think we need to learn more about it."

“In rapid-fire fashion, Mr. Obama’s Chicago headquarters has been auditioning a series of negative narratives that might disqualify the Republican as a legitimate alternative to sit in the Oval Office: Mr. Romney as corporate raider at Bain Capital, Mr. Romney as enemy of women, Mr. Romney as friend of the birther movement,” the New York Times writes. “Now, add to that list: Mr. Romney as failed governor. In a detailed memo released Wednesday night by David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s senior campaign strategist, the campaign argues that Mr. Romney’s time as governor of Massachusetts provides no legitimate basis for him to ascend to the presidency.”

“The most authoritative examination of this question would be by the experienced budget analysts at the CBO or the Office of Management and Budget. We continue to find it curious that the White House would rely on the work of bloggers for budgetary analysis rather than the career employees who do this for a living,” the Washington Post’s fact checker writes.

“The White House has apologized for President Obama’s reference to a ‘Polish death camp’ during Tuesday’s Medal of Freedom ceremony, but Polish officials remain offended, seeking a ‘stronger, more pointed’ retraction,” the Boston Globe says.

Picture day… “President Obama meets with two of the few people who truly understand the burdens of his job: Former presidents. Predecessors George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush are both at the White House today,” USA Today writes. “The occasion: The unveiling of the formal portrait of George W. and former first lady Laura Bush. The Bushes and members of their families first have lunch with Obama. The portrait ceremony is the early afternoon.”

A Kaiser Family Foundation poll finds support for the health-care law has dropped five points this month to a net-negative favorable rating of 37%/44%. But defunding the law is very unpopular with 58% saying they disagree with cutting off funding as a way to stop the law’s implementation.

Real Clear’s Cannon looks at the history of picking vice presidents and the considerations, including: geography, ideological balance, doubling, down, complementary choice, diversity, doing the heavy lifting, running alone, and the Hail Mary.

BUSH: Jeb Bush STILL doesn’t want to be veep.

HALEY: In a Facebook chat, the SC governor said, “My preference would be Bobby Jindal or Condi Rice.”

HUCKABEE: Hogan Gidley, Santorum’s ex-spokesman and spokesman for HuckPAC, was pushing Huckabee for veep.  Real Clear’s Conroy writes: Gidley is going to call Romney camp members to push Huckabee’s cause. “The way the news cycle is now, the vice presidency is more high-profile than it used to be, and you need to have someone who’s vetted and doesn’t have any major surprises,” Gidley said. “I think one of the reasons to pick Mike Huckabee is that he’s done it before. He’s been vetted, he’s good on the stump, he’s great on a debate stage, he’s inspiring, he was a governor, he energizes the base.” (h/t: GOP 12)

THUNE: Sununu says “no question” Thune’s on the list.

Political Wire notes: “Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Pete Hoekstra (R) said he'd like to ‘create a federal office in Washington that would verify that presidential candidates meet the minimum requirements to hold the office,’ the Detroit Free Press reports. Said Hoekstra: ‘This is not brain surgery. It should be an FBI person, maybe a CIA person. If you want to run for president, you've got to go with the proper documentation and get it certified that you meet the qualifications to be the President of the United States.’”

In 1967 questions were raised about George Romney’s eligibility since he was born in Mexico. Romney said in a statement at the time: "I am a natural born citizen. My parents were American citizens. I was a citizen at birth.”

Reuters: “At one point, the Congressional Research Service - an arm of the Library of Congress that is supposed to provide authoritative but impartial research for elected members - advised that its analysts agreed with George Romney, according to a congressional source. In a paper in November aimed at clarifying presidential eligibility, the Congressional Research Service declared that the practical, legal meaning of ‘natural born citizen’ would ‘most likely include’ not only anyone born on U.S. soil but anyone born overseas of at least one parent who was a U.S. citizen.”

MASSACHUSETTS: The story that just keeps on keepin’ on…  “Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren acknowledged for the first time late Wednesday night that she told Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania that she was Native American, but she continued to insist that race played no role in her recruitment,” the Boston Globe writes. 

Warren said in a statement, “At some point after I was hired by them, I . . . provided that information to the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard. My Native American heritage is part of who I am, I’m proud of it and I have been open about it.”

The Globe does point out: “Two key people who recruited her to Harvard have said they did not know of her purported heritage or take it into account when hiring her. The school did not promote her as a Native American when she was hired, despite the fact that it was under intense pressure to diversify its faculty with more minorities.”

Former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens took a poke at the controversial Citizens United decision Wednesday night and said his former colleagues have probably already had second thoughts about it.

Former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens speaks at a lecture presented by the Clinton School of Public Service in Little Rock, Ark., Wednesday, May 30.

The 2010 decision paved the way for the SuperPACs to which wealthy individuals, corporations, and labor unions can give unlimited amounts of money to support or oppose candidates.  Stevens was among the justices who dissented in the court's 5-4 ruling.

In remarks prepared for delivery at the University of Arkansas, Stevens predicted that the court will soon be forced to issue rulings that will undermine a key part of the Citizens United ruling -- that the First Amendment "prohibits the suppression of political speech based on the speaker's identity," including the fact that the speaker is a corporation.

The court's decision left undecided whether the same free speech right applies to foreign corporations. In due course, Stevens said, the court will be called upon to decide that question, forcing it to craft an exception "that will create a crack in the foundation of the Citizens United majority opinion."

"The court must then explain its abandonment of, or at least qualify its reliance upon, the proposition that the identity of the speaker is an impermissible basis for regulating campaign speech.  It will be necessary to explain why the First Amendment provides greater protection of some non-voters than to that of other non-voters," he said.

Stevens said a recent Supreme Court action may also undermine Citizens United.  In January, the justices upheld a lower court ruling that said two non-citizens could not make political contributions to political candidates.  It's therefore now settled, Stevens said, "that the identity of some speakers may provide a legally acceptable basis for restricting speech" through contributions.

Unlike most retired Supreme Court justices, John Paul Stevens has not been reluctant to criticize the rulings of his former colleagues.

CUSTER, SD -- South Dakota Sen. John Thune said he's open to serving as Mitt Romney's running mate, telling reporters in his home state on Wednesday that it would be tough to ever rule out that option.

"I don’t think you ever rule out or say no to opportunities to public service if you are really interested in making a difference for your country, you want to put your gifts and abilities to the highest and best use,” Thune told reporters following a town hall in the local firehouse here. But, he added, "I don’t expect that to happen but I don’t think you never say never when it comes to serving your country."

Thune seems to have shifted in the way he's spoken about about his contact with the Romney campaign. Just two weeks ago, the senator told The Hill, he had yet to be contacted by the Romney campaign. But today, Thune said, “We talk to him all the time.”

Other than knowing who is leading the search, Romney’s vice presidential selection process has been rather secretive. Thune’s comments come on the same day one of Romney’s top advisers, John Sununu, gave National Reviewone of the first glimpses into the grueling process. Sununu said Thune is “on the list for consideration” for VP.

The small town senator, who even flirted with running for president himself this cycle, seems happy with his current position as the third-ranking Republican in the U.S. Senate.

Being vice president for Thune, he says, is “not a job I aspire to.”

"I like the job I have. I look forward to working with a president, as a member of the United States Senate, that is interested in solving problems," he said. "I think that Gov. Romney and his team will make a very good choice. I think, some of the names I am hearing banging about out there are really good people."

Sources say the senator may soon hit the campaign trail for Romney, perhaps in neighboring Iowa. Thune endorsed Romney in Des Moines, Iowa just before Thanksgiving -– weeks before many other prominent Republicans picked a candidate.

“I came out and supported him [Romney] early because I thought he…represented our best opportunity to win in November and also the guy who was best experienced and had the best skills to govern our country for the next few years, which is not going to be easy,” Thune said, standing in front of a Custer fire truck the day after Romney secured the required 1,144 delegates for the party’s nomination. “I am delighted he has crossed that line and is going to be our nominee because I think it is going to be a great race this fall.”

U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice rejected calls to arm the Syrian rebels on MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports, arguing that would further inflame the region into a proxy war -- and that the Syrian opposition are not a united force.

Rice's comments came right after a Security Council briefing from former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan's team in Geneva, after their departure from Damascus.

Rice also accused Iran of aiding the regime's militias -- and talked about Russia's role.

"We think Iran is actively supporting its longtime ally Assad and providing material and other support," Rice said, "and indeed they said so publicly, in a statement on their own website. They bragged about their engagement in Syria and that is one of the reasons among others - they're not the only ones that are supporting the Syrian regime - that this is a conflict of a different character, with much broader regional implications should it continue to spin out of control."

Rice also said the U.S. continues to lobby Russia and noted its potentially pivotal role.

"We think the Russians have the greatest stake, in fact, in ensuring that the Syrian regime meets its obligations under the Annan plan, so that we're not having to resort to sanctions or having to see the region engulfed in a wider conflict," Rice said. "And that's the message that we're conveying to the Russians. It is their interest and indeed their responsibility as the Syrian government's best friend on the Security Council to put maximum pressure on the Syrian government to adhere to the commitments it's made. And that is why it's time that we start talking about this problem and thinking about this problem in these stark terms."

She added, "I think they are beginning to look at this situation with the kind of clarity it deserves, and recognizing that if they want to preserve Kofi Annan's mission - its opportunity to provide a peaceful political solution, which is what they say they do - either they're going to have to move Assad to a very different place than he's been in thus far, or join with us and others in maximizing Security Council pressure on the regime."

Here's a partial transcript:

AVOIDING A "PROXY WAR"

ANDREA MITCHELL: What has to happen on the ground for the administration to decide that there needs to be weapons and material support to the opposition?

RICE: Our view has been that the best way to resolve this is not by intensifying the militarization, not by providing further arms into what is already a hot conflict - but to try to resolve it through non-military means, through a diplomatic and political process. Now as I said that may prove ultimately not to be possible. We haven't reached that point yet - and for this to become a proxy war with countries all over the region and beyond funneling weapons in there is basically conceding a massive fire burning in that region. For those who are advocating arming the opposition, they really ought to consider the consequences of that approach and also to ask, frankly, who are they arming inside of the Syrian opposition. You know and we know, it's not a unified opposition. It's fragmented. They don't have common command and control. There are some extremist elements mixed in there, and we know much less about the intentions of the Syrian opposition than we did even of the Libyan opposition at the time. And I want to remind you that we did not arm the Libyan opposition.

RE IRAN BRAGGING ABOUT HELPING REGIME FORCES:
AM: Let me ask you about some of these outside forces. What is the role of Iran in all of this?

SR: We think Iran is actively supporting its longtime ally Assad and providing material and other support - and indeed they said so publicly, in a statement on their own website. They bragged about their engagement in Syria and that is one of the reasons among others - they're not the only ones that are supporting the Syrian regime - that this is a conflict of a different character, with much broader regional implications should it continue to spin out of control.

RUSSIA'S ROLE

AM: And what makes us think that Vladimir Putin, who wouldn't even come to the NATO Summit meeting, and has shown no friendliness toward the Obama administration - what makes us think that Vladimir Putin is now going to be helpful in pressuring his political ally Assad to give up power?

RICE: Let's be clear. The relationship broadly speaking between the United States and Russia over the course of the last several years is much improved over the past. There are areas in which we have real differences, but this improvement - this reset as we call it - has occurred with Vladimir Putin with prime minister - and we expect it will continue. But on this issue we disagree and we are continuing to talk with the Russians and pressure them. We'd like to see them make a voluntary decision to stop providing military support - even of prior agreed contracts to the Syrian regime. We think the Russians have the greatest stake in fact in ensuring that the Syrian regime meets its obligations under the Annan plan so that we're not having to resort to sanctions or having to see the region engulfed in a wider conflict. And that's the message that we're conveying to the Russians. It is their interest and indeed their responsibility as the Syrian government's best friend on the Security Council to put maximum pressure on the Syrian government to adhere to the commitments it's made. And that is why it's time that we start talking about this problem and thinking about this problem in these stark terms...

AM: Did you see any flexibility on Russia's part in the meeting today? 

SR: We'll see where the Russians end up. I think they are beginning to look at this situation with the kind of clarity it deserves, and recognizing that if they want to preserve Kofi Annan's mission - its opportunity to provide a peaceful political solution, which is what they say they do - either they're going to have to move Assad to a very different place than he's been in thus far, or join with us and others in maximizing Security Council pressure on the regime.

With both the Obama and Romney campaigns releasing negative ads, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss how candidates use this tactic to define their opponents.

Thanks Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL for the question! Edited by NBC's Jay Rankin.