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  • On good-bye tour, Gingrich touts ability to be Romney surrogate

    MOORESVILLE, NC -- Even though his presidential campaign "will go bye-bye," Newt Gingrich on Thursday said he and his wife plan to campaign through the fall to help presumptive nominee Mitt Romney.

    "I'm going to look at how I can be helpful, because I suspect people will still show up to hear me," Gingrich told voters at luncheon here. "Callista and I are going to campaign through October."

    Though today, just 25 people attended the midday event here, leaving a roomful of empty chairs. Some of those seats were taken by Secret Service, an area the campaign has taken heat for recently because of the thousands of dollars the protection was costing taxpayers, even Gingrich he had become more of a sideshow than serious contender for the GOP nomination.

    After losing the Deleware primary on Tuesday, the latest in a long string of electoral defeats, the former Speaker of the House acknowledged he will end his campaign next week. He will continue with his packed schedule through North Carolina, saying he felt an obligation to fulfill previous commitments here.

    "The campaign will go bye-bye, but I'll be a citizen," Gingrich told a supporter asking about the candidate's future. "I've been an active citizen since I was 15."

    The once top-tier GOP candidate said he would welcome the opportunity to stump for former rival Romney. He has spoken to the former Massachusetts governor and Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus about playing a role in the party going forward. At a stop at a diner here this morning, Gingrich continued his pledge to forge ahead to the summer convention in Tampa -- only now, as a citizen and not a candidate.

    "We're also going to go back to the private sector to earn some money," Gingrich said. "It's been a long, expensive 2 years."

    Gingrich's now-bare-bones campaign faces deep debts; he had previously been a paid contributor to FOX News, but criticized his former employer, saying he could get a fairer shake from CNN; and his flagship company, The Gingrich Group, filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy earlier this year.

    "I ran for president and, candidly, wished I had done better," Gingrich said Thursday morning. "But I learned a lot."

    And while the former frontrunner says he's eager to help, it likely will not be on the Romney ticket. "I think the vice president will be somebody much younger," Gingrich said. "That would be my advice to Romney."

  • Ryan puts a softer face on his budget reforms

    Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan (R) made strides toward putting a softer face on his regimen of budgetary reforms in the face of liberal critics, who say it is especially conservative and victimizes the poor.

    Ryan delivered his major fiscal policy address at Georgetown University, where he defended his budget roadmap in the context of his own Catholic faith.

    "The overarching to threat to our whole society today is the exploding federal debt. The Holy Father himself, Pope Benedict, has charged governments, communities and individuals running up high debt levels are 'living at the expense of future generations and living in untruth.'" Ryan said.

    The Ryan budget has weathered criticism from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and Catholic lay people for its cuts to social programs, in conflict with the church's social justice teachings. A small group of protesters from the liberal group Catholics United gathered outside the venue for Ryan's speech at Georgetown, which is affiliated with the Catholic Church.

    Citing the principle of subsidiarity, Ryan went on to say that smaller, more localized government is better able to serve the needy than federal bureaucrats. At times Ryan seemed to echo Mitt Romney's language on the president's "government-centered society" versus his vision of an "opportunity society."

    The speech attracted considerable attention because of Ryan's role as a highly-speculated possible running mate for Romney this November. In a question-and-answer session following the speech, Ryan would not dismiss the possibility of serving as Romney's vice presidential nominee, but said he was "content with my job" and didn't want to deal in "hypotheticals."

    Democrats have been eager to make Ryan's budget proposals the last two years, especially should the Wisconsin Republican join the national ticket. They accused Ryan's plan of ending Medicare as most Americans have come to know it, and have gotten a degree of political traction from that attack.

    To that end, Ryan's speech Thursday was partly directed toward couching his plan in a post-partisan aura. He made strides toward emphasizing fairness and economic mobility.

    "Pro-growth tax reform, by lowering rates for all Americans while closing loopholes that primarily benefit the well off, can eliminate unfairness in the tax code and ensure a level playing field for all," he said.

    And at another point, Ryan sought to cast off the shackles of part affiliation. "These principles are not exclusive to one party," he said, referring to the concept of American exceptionalism, which GOP presidential candidates have stressed on the campaign trail this spring.

  • Biden: Romney 'out of touch' on foreign policy

     

    NEW YORK -- Vice President Joe Biden charged Thursday that a flip-flopping Mitt Romney remains "mired in a Cold War mindset" and has "a profound misunderstanding of the responsibilities of a president and a commander in chief."

    In one of the Obama campaign's harshest critiques of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to date, Biden accused the GOP's presumptive nominee of cravenly criticizing the president on policies he's previously backed, unwisely planning to "outsource" foreign policy decision-making to the State Department, and being "completely out of touch" with the realities of the global stage today.

    And he implied that his boss's chief rival would not have taken the same action as the president in greenlighting a risky operation to kill 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden.

    "You can't say for certain what Gov. Romney would have done," Biden said of Obama's decision in remarks to a crowd of about 500 students and foreign policy buffs at New York University's School of Law.

    Invoking his unofficial slogan for the 2012 re-election campaign -- "Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive" -- Biden warned, "You have to ask yourself, if Gov. Romney were president, could he have used the same slogan in reverse?"

    Much of Biden's over-45 minute address centered on President Barack Obama's leadership in officially ending the Iraq War, drawing down troop levels in Afghanistan, and pulling the trigger on a bin Laden mission that the vice president said would have ended Obama's political career if it failed.

    In each case, Biden argued that Romney at some past point in his political career had voiced support for those objectives but had criticized them for political expediency during the GOP primary.

    "In the face of the challenges that we now understand are ahead of us, what would Gov. Romney do?" he asked. "The truth is we don't know for certain but we know where the governor starts. He starts with a profound misunderstanding of the responsibilities of a president and a commander in chief."

    Biden, a longtime Democratic leader of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, said that Romney hopes to "outsource" international policy issues to the State Department, citing a 2007 quote in which the former Massachusetts governor said "a president is not a foreign policy expert."

    "That kind of thinking may work for a CEO but I assure you it will not and cannot work for a president," Biden said.

    In a conference call with reporters held before the vice president's speech, Romney's foreign policy advisers pushed back on the idea that the GOP leader would return the United States to unpopular Bush-era policies, dubbing the current commander-in-chief's worldview a "Carter/Obama doctrine" that deviates from America's traditional exercise of "peace through strength."

    The vice president's address was the fifth "framing speech" in a series intended to draw stark contrasts between Obama and Romney, although today's was the first since Romney's GOP rivals Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum announced their withdrawals from the primary contest.

    Biden's tone was somber for much of the speech, although he won laughter from the mostly student-aged crowd when describing the president's decisiveness.

    "This guy's got a backbone like a ramrod. For real. For real," he insisted as the audience giggled.

    And, quoting the old foreign policy adage to "speak softly and carry a big stick," Biden responded with his own, well, schtick.

    "I promise you, the president has a big stick," he said.

    NBC's Garrett Haake contributed

  • Boehner demands Obama reimburse government for trips

     

    House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) demanded on Thursday that President Obama's re-election campaign reimburse the Treasury for the cost of a two-day trip to three swing states.

    At his weekly press conference on Capitol Hill, the GOP speaker accused the president of essentially campaigning during his trip this week, which took him to three college campuses in three swing states to talk, ostensibly, about student loan interest rates.

    "This week the president traveled across the country on the taxpayer's dime at a cost of $179,000 an hour insisting that Congress fix a problem that we already working on. Frankly I think this is beneath the dignity of the White House," Boehner said.

    Richard Drew / AP

    House Speaker John Boehner demanded on Thursday that President Obama's re-election campaign reimburse the Treasury for the cost of a two-day trip to three swing states.

    "And for the president to make a campaign issue about this and then to travel to three battleground states and go to three large college campus on taxpayer's money to try to make this a political issue is pathetic," he added. "His campaign ought to be reimbursing the treasury for the cost of this trip.  Our country is facing some major economic and fiscal challenges, yet here's the president wasting time on a fake fight to try to gain his own re-election."

    The president's trip was directed toward student loan reforms, making it official White House travel. The Obama campaign reimburses the government for any of the president's political trip.

    But Obama's journey, which took him to the three swing states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina, also held undeniable political significance. The president assailed Republicans during the speeches, and the trip was coordinated to push a weeklong outreach message to young voters, a key part of the winning Obama coalition in 2008.

    "As in other administrations, we'll follow all of the rules and regulations to ensure that the committee pays for whatever is required for the president and the first lady to travel to political events," said Jim Messina, the Obama campaign manager, last night in a conference call. "These are very specific rules that are similar to what Bush and Clinton and other presidents have had to do, and they're very clear and we will abide by all of those in our usual way."

    Republicans have been eager to drive a message of Obama as the "campaigner-in-chief." The president's campaign is unlikely to reimburse the government for the cost of the travel, but the Republican attacks, led by Boehner, mark the beginning of an effort to engage in the general election fight against Obama.

  • Battle for control of Congress tightens considerably

     

    The battle for control of Congress this fall will be more closely fought than many Republicans had predicted in the heady days following their 2010 midterm landslide victories, according to those most closely involved in the campaign.

    House Speaker John Boehner’s comments this week that the GOP has a “one-in-three” chance of losing the House sent shockwaves through the political establishment. “We've got a fight on our hands and our hands need to be prepared,” Boehner told reporters on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, doubling down on his warning.

    While the Ohio Republican’s admonition was mostly meant to guard against complacency among donors and lawmakers, it reflects a more grim assessment of the GOP’s chances in the House and Senate.

    Richard Drew / AP

    House Speaker John Boehner's comments this week that the GOP has a "one-in-three" chance of losing the House sent shockwaves through the political establishment.

    Republicans now privately expect to suffer a handful of losses in the House, expected partly to be a natural outgrowth of the receding Republican wave from 2010. And while the party remains optimistic in its chance to regain the Senate, Washington Republicans believe it wouldn’t be by any commanding margin.

    "This is going to be an election that comes down to jobs, the economy and pocketbook issues. This is going to be a referendum on the president’s economic policies and how it translates down to congressional districts," said Brad Dayspring, a former spokesman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor , R-Va.,  who now works for the Young Guns Action Fund, the super PAC founded by former aides to Cantor and GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy.

    "It’s going to be whether Republicans can be trusted again to govern in a responsible manner," he said.

    Forty-six percent of registered voters in April's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said they would prefer a Democratic Congress as the outcome of this fall's elections, versus 44 percent who said they’d prefer a Republican one. That's a closer margin for Republicans than in previous months, but general anti-incumbent fervor is running high, too.

    Speaker John Boehner says Republicans have a 1 in 3 chance of losing the house, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer predicts the Democrats will take the 25 seats needed to win back a majority.

    “Fairly or unfairly, House Republicans have become the face of Congress, and right now a root canal is more popular than Congress,” said Doug Thornell, a former aide on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

    Gone is the optimism from Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, the Republican in charge of his party’s campaign efforts in the House, from early 2011, when he predicted an expanded majority in November’s elections.

    One Republican veteran of the party’s past campaign efforts pointed to two moments from the intervening 15 months that tarnished the party’s brand: the impasses associated with raising the debt ceiling and extending an expiring payroll tax cut.

    "I don’t think that Republicans have had the opportunity to showcase what they are capable of doing; it’s hard to do with only one house in Congress," said the Republican. "But when they did have opportunities, they didn’t necessarily make the most of them."

    The GOP entered the 2012 cycle with some built-in advantages. Down-ballot victories in 2010 helped the party shore up some seats through Census-mandated redistricting efforts, and Democrats must defend more seats (23) than Republicans in the Senate.

    But Democrats argue that they have made inroads over the past year in recruiting top-flight candidates and defining Republicans, especially in reference to the controversial GOP budget in 2011.

    "Nobody would have thought after we lost 63 seats in the House that we would fast-forward 18 months that we would have the candidates we have on 'Red to Blue,'" said one House Democratic campaign operative, referring to the party's initiative to flip Republican seats in November.

    Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking Democrat in the House, pegged the odds of retaking the House even higher. "I think it's 50-50," he told reporters on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.

    To accomplish that feat, Democrats must win a net of 25 seats to retake control of the House. (Republicans caution that, because they expect to win at least a few seats, their opponents must win 35-40 seats to have a real chance of re-taking the House.)

    By contrast, Republicans need a net gain of just four seats to win back the Senate.

    Republicans are eager to stress the plethora of opportunities that could allow the party to accomplish its goal of winning the upper chamber. But they caution that the early projections last year that saw the GOP as competitive in over a dozen races were irrationally exuberant.

    "The expectations were out of whack a year ago, and conversely, people's perspectives were out of whack, too," said one GOP strategist familiar with the party's campaign efforts in the upper chamber.

    Republican candidates have struggled to get traction in states like Michigan, and few good GOP candidates have emerged in battlegrounds like Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania — despite potentially vulnerable Democrats facing re-election this fall.

    "I think that after 2012, people will look back and see there were missed opportunities not only in 2012 but in 2010, as well," said the veteran GOP operative of the party's campaign efforts, alluding to the instances last cycle in which Tea Party-affiliated candidates failed in winning competitive races.

    Author and GQ contributor Robert Draper embedded himself in the House for a year, and he joins Morning Joe to offer an in-depth look at the House of the 112 Congress and how the Tea Party freshmen changed the tone of the House.

    Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe's decision to retire complicated Republicans' efforts to stymie losses, and Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown's re-election campaign is a virtual toss-up.

    “We were not handed a friendly map at the beginning of this cycle but we went out and aggressively recruited great candidates in open and Republican-held seats, our incumbents built strong campaigns, and we are now more bullish than ever about keeping the majority,” said Matt Canter, the spokesman for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.

    At the same time, though, Republicans point out they could still lose a number of contests and still wrest the majority from Democrats if they're able to score victories in places like Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana — states traditionally friendly to Republicans.

    For all of presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney's talk of shrinking the size of government and repealing the president's health reform law, much of it depends on whether the GOP can retain control of the House and win back the Senate. On the flip side, Republican control of one or both chambers could also grind to a halt President Barack Obama's attempt to restructure taxes in a manner that shifts more burden to the wealthy.

    To that end, both parties expect the presidential race to affect these downballot races. The Obama campaign's sophisticated turnout efforts in states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio — to name a few — could help propel Democrats' House and Senate candidates to a margin of victory.

    In the same manner, Boehner's admonition this week focused partly on minimizing losses in so-called "orphan" states and districts, where the presidential race isn't being fought tightly. The GOP made gains in three such states — New York, Illinois and California — last cycle, and their ability to keep control of the House might hinge in part on their effectiveness of holding onto some of those seats.

    Another major variable involves the full advent of super PACs, the unlimited campaign funds on both sides which can spend millions to pummel candidates whom they oppose. American Crossroads and its non-profit arm, Crossroads GPS, spent with great effectiveness in 2010, and have already gone on the attack in 2012, most recently announcing a $1.2 million blitz against five Democratic Senate candidates.

    “My biggest fear at both the House level and the presidential level is all of these outside groups coming in and spending tons of money,” Thornell said. “There are clearly now more of them, and they’re going to have millions of dollars. That’s going to be a huge challenge.”

  • Romney small donors (or lack thereof)

     

    When the Romney campaign released its March fundraising numbers, it noted that "84% of all donations received through the end of March were $250 or less" -- which seemed to suggest that a sizable amount of its money is coming from grassroots donors.

    But that statistic doesn't tell the whole story. Per MSNBC's Joshua Chaffee, a producer with "NOW with Alex Wagner":

    While the percentage the campaign cites is correct, it doesn't illustrate the role small donors play in the campaign's overall fundraising. A closer look at the numbers reveals that in fact, a majority of Romney's money has come from people who donated the maximum amount of $2,500 -- 64% through March, according to the Campaign Finance Institute (CFI).

    What the "84%" figure really means is that roughly 8 out of 10 checks received by the Romney campaign were $250 or less, not that 84% of the campaign's total fundraising came from checks of that size.

    More:

    We had the CFI crunch the numbers for $250 and they found just 11% of Romney's cash has come from contributions of $250 or less. When you compare this to his rival, the CFI found 49% of the President's fundraising has come from donors who gave $250 or less.

  • First Thoughts: Obama maintains map edge

    Obama maintains map edge in latest NBC News battleground map… Breaking down our seven toss-up states: CO, FL, NV, NC, OH, PA, and VA… Given those toss-ups, it’s not surprising that Obama is kicking off his re-election bid with rallies in OH and VA on May 5… Biden to draw contrasts with Romney in foreign-policy speech at 10:30 am ET… Romney camp to respond in 9:30 am ET conference call… Could SCOTUS upholding Arizona’s immigration law fire up Latinos?... And Scott Walker has a significant ad-spending advantage in Wisconsin.

    Carolyn Kaster / AP

    President Barack Obama greets people as he arrives in an overflow before he speaks at the University of Iowa, Wednesday, April 25, 2012, in Iowa City, Iowa.

    *** Obama maintains map edge: In our latest look at the 2012 presidential battleground map and the first since Mitt Romney became the presumptive GOP nominee, President Obama continues -- and has slightly added to -- his electoral-vote lead. There are 231 electoral votes in the Democratic column (either in the solid, likely, or lean categories), and there are 197 on the Republican side; 110 electoral votes are toss-up. In our previous NBC News map, which we released in late February, the Democratic advantage was 227-197. The only changes from February until now were that we moved New Hampshire from toss-up to Lean Dem; we moved Indiana from Likely GOP to Lean GOP; and we moved Georgia from Lean GOP to Likely GOP. Here’s our map:

    Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, ME (3 EVs) MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (70 electoral votes)
    Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, WA (94)
    Lean Dem: ME (1 EV) MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, MI, WI (67)
    Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NC, OH, PA, VA (110)
    Lean GOP: AZ, IN, IA, MO, (38)
    Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, GA, LA, MS, MT, NE (1 EV), ND, SC, SD, TX (102)
    Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, ID, KS, KY, NE (4 EVs) OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (57)

    The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd previews President Barack Obama's re-election campaign events.

    *** Breaking down the seven toss-up states: As you see above, we have seven states in the toss-up category: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. And if we were to push some of these states -- based on polling, past performance, and what we’ve heard from the campaigns/parties -- we’d give a slight edge to Obama in Colorado and Pennsylvania, and we’d give a slight edge to Romney in North Carolina. And that leaves us with four pure toss-ups: Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. One other point here: There aren’t enough toss-ups in the Midwest for Romney. He HAS to put Michigan and Wisconsin into play to put map pressure on Obama, especially if the GOP’s Hispanic problem continues to make the Western swing states uphill climbs.  

    *** Obama to hold upcoming rallies in OH, VA: Given our pure toss-ups, it’s probably no surprise that Obama is kicking off his re-election campaign with rallies in two of our four pure toss-up states: Ohio and Virginia. Last night, the Obama camp announced that -- on Saturday, May 5 -- the president and first lady will attend campaign rallies in Columbus, OH and Richmond, VA, which happen to be swing areas in those two battleground states. “For the better part of the last year, Romney’s tried to tear down President Obama with a dishonest, negative campaign that even his Republicans have criticized,” Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina said on a conference call announcing these two rallies. “Well, the monologue is over. Now Romney has to put his record and his agenda up against the president’s and we look forward to that debate.”

    *** Biden to draw contrasts with Romney on foreign policy: In the latest of his campaign speeches drawing distinctions with Romney and the GOP, Vice President Joe Biden will deliver an address on foreign policy at New York University at 10:30 am ET. “President Obama ended the war in Iraq responsibly.  He set a clear strategy and end date for the war in Afghanistan. He cut in half the number of Americans serving in harm’s way. He decimated Al Qaeda’s senior leadership. He repaired our alliances and restored America’s standing in the world. And he saved our economy from collapse with bold decisions,” Biden is expected to say, per released excerpts. But he'll add, "Gov. Romney’s national security policy would return us to the past we have worked so hard to move beyond... But Americans know that we cannot afford to go back to the future.  Back to a foreign policy that would have America go it alone… shout to the world you’re either with us or against us… lash out first and ask the hard questions later, if at all… isolate America instead of our enemies." The Romney camp is holding a conference at 9:30 am ET to pre-but Biden’s speech.

    *** Could SCOTUS upholding the Arizona law fire up Latinos? As NBC's Pete Williams reported yesterday, a majority of U.S. Supreme Court justices appear to be prepared to uphold part of Arizona's controversial immigration law -- based on their comments during Wednesday morning's oral arguments. Here’s a question we have: If you’re Mitt Romney, aren’t you secretly rooting for the court to overturn the law? Just like with the health-care law, it’s hard to predict how the ultimate Supreme Court decision will play out in November. But you COULD make the case that the court upholding the Arizona law would fire up Latinos in a big way. Just something to keep an eye on... It’s the same theory many strategists believe will drive the political reaction to the Supreme Court’s health-care ruling: that if the law is upheld, it fires up conservatives in a bigger way and forces health care back into the debate.

    *** Team Walker’s big ad-spending advantage: Less than two weeks from now, Wisconsin voters will head to the polls to participate in the first round of Wisconsin’s gubernatorial recall – the May 8 primary. The marquee contest here is on the Democratic side between Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (whom Gov. Scott Walker defeated in 2010) and Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk; Walker also has a minor primary opponent. Then, just four weeks later on June 5, Walker and the Barrett-Falk winner will face off for the big prize. A late March NBC/Marist poll showed 46% supporting Walker in the recall, while 48% supporting the eventual Democratic nominee. Walker’s approval rating in the poll was 48%-48%. Yet Walker and his allies (like the Republican Governors Association) have a HUGE ad-spending edge over Dem candidates and affiliated groups, $10.6 million to $4.5 million. And this advantage raises this question: Is that going to help push Walker over the top in this recall? Or does it mean that Walker can’t go any higher and that Dems could impact the race if they get close to parity? “There has been no parity on television, and we're going to be up on television,” one Dem strategist tells NBC. But here’s the GOP counter to that: Everyone has already made up their minds about Walker, and the ads that can make a difference are the others hitting Barrett or Falk.

    *** The ad-spending numbers in Wisconsin: Here’s the total ad spending from November (when Walker began his ads) through April 25, according to Smart Media: 

    Walker: $7.2 million
    Right Direction for WI (RGA): $3.4 million
    WI for Falk (union-affiliated effort): $2.4 million
    Greater WI Committee (anti-Walker, DGA has contributed): $1.1 million
    Barrett: $634,000
    Falk: $342,000

    *** Gregory interviews Sudeikis and Armisen: In his weekly “Press Pass” video, NBC’s David Gregory sits down with the two comedians who play, respectively, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama on “Saturday Night Live”: Jason Sudeikis and Fred Armisen.

    Countdown to Election Day: 195 days

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  • Programming notes

    *** Thursday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on California’s mad cow case, jobs and the outlook for his boss and his party in 2012… ITN’s Matt Frei on Europe’s ongoing economic woes and the political impact there (and here)… Former FEC Commissioner Michael Toner takes a deep dive into the murky waters of criminal activity and political money as it relates to the Edwards trial… USA Today’s Jackie Kucinich, former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R-MD), and Daniella Gibbs Leger of the Center for American Progress on the latest 2012 news.

    *** Thursday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (MD), RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, NBC Chief Legal Analyst Savannah Guthrie, author and journalist Robert Draper, the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein, the Washington Examiner’s Tim Carney, and Rolling Stone’s Tim Dickinson.

    *** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks to Democratic strategist Kiki Mclean, GOP strategist John Feehery, Politico’s Juana Summers, Mike Bordeaux (Husband of Ft. Bragg Missing Soldier Kelli Bordeaux), TheGrio.Com’s Joy-Ann Reid, and new GLAAD President Herdon Graddick.

    *** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: MSNBC’s Alex Wagner interviews White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett, former Clinton White House Press Secretary Dee Dee Myers, Time Washington Bureau Chief Michael Duffy, the Huffington Post’s Sam Stein, NBCLatino.com Political Commentator Alicia Menendez, “Meet the Press” Moderator David Gregory, and Rolling Stone Executive Editor Eric Bates

    *** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: Chris Cillizza (filling in for NBC’s Andrea Mitchell) interviews former Rep. Tim  Roemer (D-IN), Romney foreign-policy adviser Norm Coleman NBC’s Lisa Myers, National Journal’s Reid Wilson, Politico’s Lois Romano, Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), Rep. Aaron Schock (R-IL), Erin Brockovich and the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart.

    *** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Michael Smerconish and MN Attorney General Lori Swanson.

  • 2012: Beware of the polls of April

    “President Obama leads Mitt Romney in Ohio 49% to 44%, and holds a slight lead in Virginia, 48% to 46%. The candidates are tied in Colorado, 47% to 47%, while Romney has the edge in Florida, 47% to 45%,” Political Wire writes of the latest Purple Poll, named for the “purple” states it is polling.

    The Hill notes of the poll that “Romney has made inroads among independents, according to the latest poll from Purple Strategies.”

    An important reminder: Micah Cohen at FiveThirtyEight: “[T]he election is still more than six months away, and in the past 10 presidential campaigns, the national polling leader in late April has won the election only half of the time.” Chart attached.

    RNC Chairman Reince Priebus claimed on FOX, per GOP 12, that the GOP has better messengers to Latinos than Democrats. “Our messengers are better -- Marco Rubio, Luis Fortuno, Susana Martinez, Brian Sandoval. Messengers are better,” he boasted.

    One of those guys is an official in a U.S. territory, not a state that votes for president and another doesn’t speak Spanish. That said, Democrats would love to have more high-profile Latinos to pick from that are governors and senators.

    “Reports that Newt Gingrich will end his presidential campaign - but not for a week - only underscore the quixotic nature of his candidacy,” the Boston Globe’s Johnson writes, adding, “his notorious self-absorption, manifested last summer in a mid-campaign Mediterranean vacation that prompted a widescale staff defection, raised the specter of a candidacy rooted not so much in winning his party’s nomination but salving a desire to reaffirm his stature within GOP circles. The suspected endgame? To reap the attendant rewards through future speaking fees and book sales.”

    GOP 12’s Heinze makes the case for what Gingrich accomplished, but also writes, “Gingrich reminds me of the inventor of the ‘chopstick fan’, which uses a fan to cool down the noodles on your chopstick so you don’t have to burn your tongue. I can’t decide if that’s brilliant or moronic.”

    Political Wire notes this Molly Ball item about what Romney owes Gingrich, Santorum, and the rest: "By behaving childishly and running totally amateurish campaigns, they made Romney look good. Next to Santorum's inability to stay on message, Romney's gaffes looked minor. Next to Gingrich's petulant posturing, Romney looked like a grown-up. Next to both men's improvised, bare-bones efforts, Romney's flawed operation looked like the Cadillac of political campaigns. In losing in the most undignified manner possible, Gingrich made Romney shine. And for that, Romney owes Gingrich his gratitude."

    Rick Perry finally got behind Romney.

  • Romney: Taking over the party

    “A day after claiming the title of GOP presidential nominee, Mitt Romney moved aggressively Wednesday to coordinate with the Republican National Committee to intensify his fight against President Barack Obama,” the Detroit Free-Press writes.

    “Mitt Romney likes to talk on the campaign trail about how his father ‘grew up poor,’ but that’s not the whole story,” the AP writes. “The father of the presumptive Republican nominee, George Romney, grew up in a family that suffered financial losses and enjoyed prosperity.” It adds, “George Romney was born July 8, 1907, in Chihuahua, Mexico, where his parents and other Mormons had moved to avoid persecution and U.S. laws against polygamy… George Romney’s father was Gaskell Romney, a carpenter who led a prosperous life in a Mormon colony in Mexico, according to the ‘The Real Romney,’ a book written by two Boston Globe reporters. But turmoil from the Mexican revolution later forced the Romneys and other Mormon families to flee back to the United States. The family suddenly went from owning a large Mexican ranch to being nearly penniless, and the family moved from house to house in California, Idaho and Utah as they struggled to build a new life. Over time, though, Mitt’s grandfather became prosperous, building some of the finest homes in Salt Lake City, according to the Globe book, but along with many other Americans suffered financial setbacks during the Great Depression.”

  • Obama: Kicking off the campaign

    “President Obama will officially kick off his campaign for re-election with rallies in two key swing states – Ohio and Virginia – on May 5, his campaign announced Wednesday,” the Boston Globe writes before adding, “Not that Obama hasn’t been campaigning for months.”

    Reuters: “It's official. Obama rallies mark shift to general election.”

    Biden today in a speech at NYU will warn that Romney could wage “unnecessary war,” if elected. “Vice President Joe Biden says Republican Mitt Romney's views on foreign affairs would return the United States to the policies of former President George W. Bush,” the AP says. Biden was set to deliver a campaign foreign policy speech Thursday in New York. The Associated Press received a draft of his remarks. The vice president is warning against returning to a foreign policy that he says ‘would have America go it alone.’”

    Obama to Rolling Stone: “I don’t think that their nominee is going to be able to suddenly say, ‘Everything I’ve said for the last six months, I didn’t mean. I’m assuming that he meant it. When you’re running for president, people are paying attention to what you’re saying.”

    The AP looks at the costs involved in presidential trips (that often mix in politics).

    Good faith negotiators? From Robert Draper’s latest book (via HuffPo’s Sam Stein, Political Wire): "As President Barack Obama was celebrating his inauguration at various balls, top Republican lawmakers and strategists were conjuring up ways to submarine his presidency at a private dinner in Washington, D.C... For several hours in the Caucus Room (a high-end D.C. establishment), the book says they plotted out ways to not just win back political power, but to also put the brakes on Obama's legislative platform. The dinner lasted nearly four hours. They parted company almost giddily."

    “Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said at least three U.S. Marines were disciplined last year for a dalliance with a hooker,” the New York Daily News writes. “Panetta told reporters that three Marines and a U.S. Embassy staffer were punished in December after a brouhahas with a prostitute in Brasilia. … The prostitute was allegedly dumped out of a car after she got into a fight with the Marines. She tried to crawl back into the vehicle, fell and was injured. The American embassy reimbursed her for her medical expenses.”

  • Veepstakes: Mini-Mitt?

    Stu Rothenberg: “I’m not merely a columnist. I’m a political analyst who writes a column. And the political analyst in me tells me that all of the chatter about Romney’s running mate is a lot of wasted, useless, meaningless hot air. In all likelihood, Romney’s selection of a running mate will have little or no effect on the November general election.”

    So on that note…

    The Hill’s Schroeder: “Mitt Romney is on the hunt for a vice presidential candidate, and if his years running Bain Capital are any indication, he might be looking for a version of himself. In his roughly 25 years at Bain, Romney tended to hire mini-Mitts — smart, ambitious, clean-cut and a little awkward, according to those who dealt closely with the men.”

    The shadow of Palin looms large… Robert Costa: “Many senior Republican politicos, including some who were burned by the Palin backlash, are now urging Mitt Romney to consider inside-the-Beltway experience as a plus rather than a minus as he mulls his veep pick. Mild-mannered federal lawmakers with long résumés are in; fiery rising stars are out.”

    Costa writes that names repeatedly mentioned are Rob Portman and Mitch Daniels, though Daniels has had pretty tough things to say about Romney.

    AYOTTE: GOP 12’s Heinze says Romney should target “soccer moms” not “hockey moms” – and “if Romney is going to target Soccer Moms, Kelly Ayotte would make a strong pick. NOW.... Sarah Palin didn't prove that picking a woman doesn't help with women. Palin was simply the wrong woman.”

    CHRISTIE: The Boston Globe’s editorial page warns Romney against picking Christie because, the paper says, he hurt the entire East Coast by canceling the New Jersey to New York tunnel project: “[I]t’s become clear that he exaggerated the facts when making the showcase gesture that put him on the political map. … [N]ational voters should be under no illusions about Christie’s decision. It was short-sighted, ran counter to the economic interests of his state, and hampered transportation through the entire Northeast. Before Romney decides whether to make Christie his running mate, he should review the deal carefully — and perhaps look elsewhere for a suitable VP.”

    This is so Jersey… here’s how the state Transportation Commissioner defended canceling the tunnel project yesterday: "How many ingredients do you take off of a pizza before it ceases to be a pizza? They took the sauce and the mozzarella off this deal when we were starting to build it. It made no sense."

    “The Christie administration's failure to swiftly approve or deny requests for emergency repair work at dozens of dilapidated schools across the state has prompted a Newark-based law group to file suit against the state Department of Education,” the Star-Ledger writes.

    (Christie’s kids don’t go to public school; they go to parochial school. Remember, Gayle?)

    JINDAL: He spoke yesterday before the U.S-Azerbaijan Convention in D.C. “The event is sponsored by SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company, British Petroleum, McDermott, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips,” the Monroe News Star writes.

    "He was invited to speak and he gave a speech about energy production and exploration in Louisiana," spokesman Kyle Plotkin emailed First Read.

    Jindal will also be going to the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. And he will be in New Jersey May 3-4 talking education at the American Federation for Children’s third annual National Policy Summit.

    MCDONNELL: McDonnell will be at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner this weekend, “sitting aside A-list actresses Eva Longoria and Charlize Theron,” the Washington Post writes.

    Local NBC affiliate WSLS writes of McDonnell’s ad now running in Virginia: “It's the type of ad you would expect to see from an incumbent fighting for re-election. But with no election in sight for Governor McDonnell, many are questioning why he is running the ad is running now.”

    RUBIO: A critic of the president’s TelePrompter, Marco Rubio lost the last page of his foreign-policy speech yesterday. "I left my last page of the speech-- does anyone have my last page?” he asked. “Did I Ieave it with you?"

    He quickly recovered when the page was handed to him.

    Joe Scarborough doesn’t think Rubio’s ready: "Let me set myself on fire, politically. He's not ready to be vice-president,” he said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, GOP 12 notes. “Just like Barack Obama wasn't ready to be president in 2008, just like Sarah Palin wasn't ready to be on the national ticket in 2008."

    Because of a threat, Rubio was under police protection.

    RYAN: Why going “Vanilla” might be more palatable for Romney… “Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), author of the House majority's budget proposal, will be met by Catholic protesters outside of a scheduled lecture at Georgetown University on Thursday,” The Hill writes. “Catholics United, a social justice group aligned with more liberal politics, is organizing the gathering in response to cuts Ryan's budget would make to social welfare programs. The group says it will have an actor portraying ‘GOP Jesus’ outside where Ryan will be delivering a policy speech as a part of the Catholic school’s Whittington Lecture series.”

  • Obama slams representatives using their own words

     

    As he traveled to three swing states this week to talk about student loan costs, President Barack Obama has been turning the words of Republican members of Congress against them in order to underscore, as the president characterizes it, their indifference to the struggles of college students.

    Tuesday, Obama paraphrased Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-NC, who said in a radio interview that she has “very little tolerance for people who tell me that they graduate with $200,000 of debt or even $80,000 of debt because there’s no reason for that.”

    She went on to say, “I remind folks all the time that the Declaration of Independence says, ‘life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.’ You don’t just sit on your butt and have it dumped in your lap.”

    Speaking at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the president said he would quote Foxx’s remarks, “because I know you guys will think I'm making it up.”

    “She said she had ‘very little tolerance for people who tell me they graduate with debt because there's no reason for that,’” Obama said, even though he left out the amount of student debt Foxx said she did not tolerate students accumulating.

    NRO’s Katrina Trinko pointed to a study by the New York Federal Reserve that showed the average outstanding student loan nationally was $23,300 and almost 95 percent of student loan borrowers owed less than $75,000, so Foxx’s remarks referred to a small number of debtors.

    Obama also cited Foxx at his next speech at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

    “She said, students who rack up student loan debt are just sitting on their butts, having opportunity ‘dumped in your lap.’”

    “I can tell you, Michelle and I, we didn't take out loans because we were lazy,” he continued to laughter. “You didn't take out loans because you're lazy.” 

    At his final speech Wednesday at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, Obama quoted from Rep. Todd Akin, R-MO, who was asked during a Senate debate (he’s seeking the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill) whether he would vote on a bill to keep student loan interest rates from increasing in July.

    Akin responded, "America has got the equivalent of the stage three cancer of socialism because the federal government is tampering in all kinds of stuff it has no business tampering in. So, first to answer your question precisely – what the Democrats did to get rid of the private student loans and take it all over by the government was wrong. It was a lousy bill. That's why I voted no."

    Obama made use of Akin’s words today, telling the Iowa students, “You've got one member of Congress who compared these student loans -- I'm not kidding here -- to a ‘stage-three cancer of socialism.’”

    “Stage-three cancer? I don't know where to start. What do you mean? What are you talking about? Come on. Just when you think you've heard it all in Washington, somebody comes up with a new way to go off the deep end,” he said.

    Obama’s Iowa speech came just hours before House Speaker John Boehner announced his caucus’ plan to introduce their own bill to extend the current 3.4 percent interest rate for one year to prevent it from rising to 6.8 percent.

    Boehner’s office said the extension would be paid for by re-allocating college financial aid funds that were diverted by Democrats to pay for the health care law.

    “In essence, they raided student aid to pay for a health care law that is making it harder for American small businesses to hire new workers – including recent college graduates,” Boehner’s office said in a statement.

  • VIDEO: Student reaction to upcoming election

     

    CHAPEL HILL, NC -- A recent NBC/WSJ poll found that young voters might not be as enthusiastic about the 2012 election as they were in 2008. Even at President Obama’s event at UNC Chapel Hill on Tuesday, where he kicked off his two-day tour talking about student loan interest rates, there were varying levels of excitement.

    A grain-of-salt alert: These interviews were all conducted at the event, among students who waited in line for hours to see President Obama, so they may not be the most representative sample of all young North Carolina voters. They do, however, offer a glimpse into how some of Obama’s young 2008 supporters are feeling about the election today.

    NBC caught up with some UNC-Chapel Hill students at President Obama's speech on Tuesday and asked about their enthusiasm for the 2012 election.

  • Boehner accuses Obama of 'campaign theatrics' in student loan fight

     

    House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) accused President Obama of campaigning on taxpayer funds in response Wednesday to the president's goading of lawmakers to act on a bill to extend low student loan rates.

    In a hastily-arranged press conference, Boehner accused Obama of political theatrics in his two-day tour of three college campuses in swing states. In those stops, Obama assailed Republicans in Congress for holding up legislation that would prevent an increase in student loan interest rates.

    "You know this week, the president is traveling the country on the taxpayer's dime, campaigning and trying to invent a fight where there isn't one and never has been one on this issue of student loans," the Republican speaker said on Capitol Hill.

    "Let's fix the problems for young Americans and leave the campaign theatrics for the fall," Boehner added.

    The speaker's press conference followed an event at the University of Iowa this afternoon in which an impassioned Obama pointedly went after Republicans who accused him of not focusing on the economy.

    "These guys don't get it. This is the economy," the president said in Iowa City. "What economy are they talking about?"

    The event had heavy campaign overtones, though, and, to boot, the Obama re-election campaign is in the midst of a weeklong focus on winning young voters, a core constituency for the president in 2008.

    The legislation to extend the student loan breaks has been hung up on Capitol Hill due to a familiar fight over how to finance the bill. Democrats favor a version that uses a tax, while Boehner announced a vote on Friday on a Republican alternative that would divert funds from a portion of the health care reform law -- which the GOP calls a "slush fund" -- to pay for the extension.

    Still, the urgency in scheduling this vote on Friday underscores the extent to which Obama has used the bully pulpit to prompt a Republican reaction on these issues. Amid the president's push, Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, made a point of saying earlier this week that he favors extending the lower student loan rate (though Romney didn't specify how he would finance it).

    Michael O'Brien contributed.

  • Rubio pushes broad global role for U.S. in foreign policy speech

     

    WASHINGTON -- Florida Sen. Marco Rubio delivered a foreign policy speech at a D.C. think tank on Wednesday in which he called on the U.S. to continue its involvement throughout the world, especially in the Middle East hot spots of Iran and Syria.

    Attempting to show off his foreign policy chops, Rubio argued for an American foreign policy that remains engaged in foreign lands, saying the U.S. should become involved in Syria, and arguing that military action may need to be taken to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

    "I disagree with voices in my own party who argue we should not engage at all. Who warn we should heed the words of John Quincy Adams not to go 'abroad, in search of monsters to destroy,'" said Rubio at the Brookings Institution. "I disagree, because all around us we see the human face of America’s influence in the world."

    Rubio, whose speech did little to dismiss the vice presidential speculation surrounding him, stressed the need for America to build coalitions when becoming involved in foreign affairs, saying there is no other country "to hand off the baton to, even if it were wise to do so."

    But such coalition building should not hamper the U.S. from leading on the international stage, he said. The Florida senator criticized President Obama for "an overreliance on institutions, global institutions whether its the security council or its the United Nations to take the lead on some of these issues." He cited Libya as a case in which the president waited too long to lead, and results were stifled because of inaction.

    Sen. Joe Lieberman, in independent who caucuses with Democrats but backed Republican Sen. John McCain for president in 2008, introduced Rubio, praising the junior senator from the Sunshine state for his pragmatic foreign policy views.

    Rubio did not mention presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney, though the views he espoused on Wednesday line up well with the former Massachusetts governor, who he campaigned with earlier in the week in Pennsylvania.

    Rubio said he believes foreign policy should be "non-partisan as much as possible." But for a war-weary country, further American involvement anywhere in the country can be a contentious issue. The senator said part of the problem in Afghanistan is that the U.S. has not made a long-term commitment to the country, and some Afghans fear the prospects of cooperating with allie forces if Taliban were to rule again after the coalition leaves the country.

    And Rubio made clear that military action should be on the table in Iran. "We should also be preparing our allies, and the world, for the reality that unfortunately, if all else fails, preventing a nuclear Iran may, tragically, require a military solution," he said.

    But, the Tea Party favorite did express his desires to building coalitions before beginning any foreign entanglement. 
    "America has acted unilaterally in the past -– and I believe it should continue to do so in the future -- when necessity requires," he said. "But our preferred option since the U.S. became a global leader has been to work with others to achieve our goals."

  • Obama touches on politics and policy at U-Iowa

     

    IOWA CITY, Iowa -- President Obama appeared at his third "official event" in two days on Wednesday to promote extending student loan relief at an event that had the feel more of a campaign rally.

    At the University of Iowa, the president voiced a message before a crowd of more than 4,000 centered on urging Congress to prevent the doubling of government-backed student loan interest rates in July.

    "This is where I really need you guys, Congress needs to act right now to prevent interest rates on federal student loans from shooting up and shaking you down," Obama said to applause, imploring the students to turn up the heat on lawmakers.

    Carolyn Kaster / AP

    President Barack Obama speaks at the University of Iowa April 25 in Iowa City, Iowa.

    But the impasse on Capitol Hill doesn't stem from a debate over whether to maintain the current interest rate, but rather, how to pay for it. Extending the current interest rate for another year will cost about $6 billion, according to a White House aide. But the White House stresses they're committed to extending the rate without adding to the deficit.

    President Obama speaks to thousands of people at the University of Iowa Fieldhouse as part of a weeklong push to renew a student loan measure.

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) introduced a bill on Wednesday to continue the lower interest rate, which the President said was "good news." However, the bill is financed by closing a payroll tax loophole for a certain type of business, something Republicans may not support.

    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was dismissive of Reid's bill, as well as the president's college tour.

    "If the president was more interested in solving this problem than in hearing the sound of his own voice or the applause of college students, all he'd have to do is pick up the phone and work it out with congress. We don't want the interest rates on these loans to double in this economy," he said.

    The Republican leader continued: "The only reason Democrats proposed this solution to the problem is to get Republicans to oppose it and make us cast a vote they think will make us look bad to voters they need to win in the next election."

    But Obama pushed back at Congress with his own snarky rhetoric, saying that if Republicans think he's talking about student loans to distract from the economy then, "These guys don't get it. This is the economy...What economy are they talking about?"

    According to the College Board, In 2010-11, 7.8 million undergraduate students took out subsidized Stafford loans to help pay for their college education. Many of them would see about $1,000 added, on average, to the cost of their loan over its lifetime if rates were to increase.

  • Supreme Court appears likely to uphold parts of Ariz. immigration law

    Based on their comments during this morning's oral argument, a majority of U.S. Supreme Court justices appear to be prepared to uphold part of Arizona's controversial immigration law, which would allow some of the law currently blocked by lower courts to be enforced.

    Even some of the court's liberals seemed to find no strong objection to the most controversial part of the law, which requires local police to check on the immigration status of anyone they detain or arrest.

    The state appeared to have a tougher time with two other provisions of the law that are now blocked -- making it a state crime to have no federal immigration papers and making it a state crime for an illegal immigrant to look for work. Neither is a federal crime.

  • Gingrich to leave campaign, but not the national spotlight

    Chris Keane / Reuters

    Republican presidential candidate and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich speaks at a rally on the night of the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware primaries in Concord, North Carolina April 24, 2012.

     

    Newt Gingrich will suspend his campaign next week, ending his pursuit of the presidency, but almost certainly not his life in the national spotlight.

    NBC News learned that Gingrich will suspend his campaign on May 1, and may well endorse Mitt Romney, his nemesis throughout the primary season.

    But if one thing seems unassailably true about the end of Newt Gingrich's bid for the presidency, it's that we haven't seen the end of Newt Gingrich.

    The former House speaker's career has, if nothing else, been marked by its series of peaks and valleys. Gingrich ends his campaign for the Republican nomination exploring the depths of one such valley: his campaign wracked with debt, his political stature at an all-time low within the GOP, and his private business seriously threatened.

    But like a cat with nine lives, throughout his career, Gingrich has shown a penchant for achieving unthinkable political resurrections. While he might have cashed in several lives during this campaign -- and had certainly spent more in his preceding political life -- it seems unthinkable that the public has seen the last of this man.

    “We had an avalanche fall on us, and Newt dug himself out. And that's the story of his entire career,” said Rick Tyler, the spokesman for a pro-Gingrich super PAC. Tyler was a longtime aide to the former House speaker before having joined a mass resignation of senior staff last June -- a particular low point for the candidate and his campaign.

    Those mass resignations came after a rocky rollout for Gingrich, during which he criticized a controversial budget drafted by House Republicans. Gingrich also struggled with the revelation of a six-figure line of credit he’d maintained with the jeweler Tiffany’s, and an ill-timed Greek vacation he took with his wife Callista, an omnipresent figure on the campaign trail.

    GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks to supporters in Concord, N.C. saying he will evaluate his position in the race over the next few days.

    His campaign was considered all but dead after June 9, 2011 -- the day of those resignations. But students of his career could just as easily draw parallels with other scenes from the Gingrich political biography, moments when it also appeared his luck had run out.

    “I think there's a little bit of Richard Nixon in Newt Gingrich. His political career was pronounced dead as many times as well,” said Craig Shirley, the GOP public affairs veteran with close ties to Gingrich. Shirley, a biographer of Reagan, is currently working on a political biography of Gingrich.

    “He likes the high wire in the same way that Nixon did,” Shirley said of Gingrich. “They all like the high wire, but there's some who handle it better than others.”

    There are many instances when, over the last three and a half decades, Gingrich had appeared to fall out of favor with both Republicans and voters at large. There were his failed early bids for Congress in the 1970s and clashes with Republican leaders throughout the 1980s and early 1990s.

    His biggest political achievement came in 1994, when Gingrich led Republicans to win back a majority in the House for the first time since 1954. But his tenure was well-documented for its internal and external tumult, and led to an attempted coup toward its end. Gingrich resigned amid growing Republican anger toward his leadership following the elections of 1998 – a dramatic development used to great effect by Mitt Romney’s campaign throughout the 2012 primaries.

    That resignation might have otherwise meant the end for any other political figure, but the story of Newt Gingrich has always been a story of reinvention and resurrection.

    In the more than 10 years since leaving Congress, Gingrich took on the persona of a party elder. He became a commentator on FOX News, a lucrative opportunity, and made millions more through consulting and the establishment of “Newt, Inc.,” the consortium of interest groups built in his name that has pervaded Washington.

    His brand had been rehabilitated sufficiently enough by 2011 to wage a credible bid for the Republican presidential nomination, but Gingrich’s campaign was marked by the same turbulence that had defined his entire career.

    Gingrich soldiered on following the June resignations, only to re-emerge in late November 2011 as the top choice of Republicans in the first nominating contest in Iowa, at least according to polls. But his presidential aspirations bottomed out again after suffering an onslaught of negative advertising from the Romney campaign.

    The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd explains Mitt Romney newest test – explaining why he should replace President Barack Obama.

    Undeterred, Gingrich rebounded again to shock Romney in the South Carolina primary – the first time a candidate had won the influential primary since its inception without continuing to become the eventual Republican nominee.

    Then came the Florida primary several days later, where Romney again dispensed with the former House speaker by using a barrage of critical advertisements. It was Gingrich’s last true gasp as a candidate. He retreated to Georgia, the state he had served as a member of Congress, and hitched his candidacy to winning that state – and only – on Super Tuesday.

    Even in nearby Mississippi and Alabama several weeks later, Gingrich lost those primaries to Rick Santorum. His inability to score a meaningful win fueled perceptions of Gingrich as a kind of “ghost candidate,” even though he defiantly vowed to push forward with his campaign through the August convention in Tampa, where he would conceivably challenge Romney in a messy floor fight for the nomination.

    His relationship with FOX lies in tatters following the publication of a report in which Gingrich made critical comments of the network before a private crowd. More significantly, the Center for Health Transformation – the crown jewel of Gingrich’s personal empire – was forced to file for bankruptcy in the former speaker’s absence. His campaign is millions in debt, and CHT’s bankruptcy will likely cost Gingrich some personal wealth, too.

    Gingrich’s path to redemption – again – is steep, possibly steeper than at any previous point in his career.

    That path begins with a speech at the Tampa convention this summer meant to unify Republicans behind Romney, despite the personal animosity over time between Romney and Gingrich, said Shirley.

    “Newt has the ability to arrest people because he’s interesting,” said Rick Tyler of the attributes that might help Gingrich accomplish another turnaround. “That didn’t translate into people wanting him to be president.”

    Fans of the former speaker assert that it would be inconceivable for Gingrich, at the least an irrepressible gadfly in Washington, to fade from public view.

    When will Americans finally see Gingrich’s final act as a public figure?

    “I guess when he's getting last rites,” Shirley said.

  • Gingrich to exit presidential race next week

     

    NBC News confirms that Newt Gingrich will suspend his presidential campaign on Tuesday, May 1 in Washington, DC, a senior campaign source says.

    After a four-hour meeting last night, the former House speaker has decided to end his run. Tuesday was chosen for logistical reasons so his family can come up to the area and so forth.

    There is a "high likelihood" he will endorse the GOP nominee at Tuesday's event.

  • Gingrich recognizes Romney as the ‘nominee’

     

    CRAMERTON, NC –- Newt Gingrich finally admitted Wednesday morning that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party’s nominee for president this year.

    Addressing supporters inside a local diner here following a disappointing second place finish Tuesday night in Delaware's primary, Gingrich went a step closer toward ending his presidential race this morning, after hinting at it last night during his election night speech.

    RELATED: Gingrich loses again, signals exit from race

    "You have to, at some point, be honest about what's happening in the real world as opposed to what you would like to have happen. Gov. Romney had a very good day yesterday,” he said. “You have to give him some credit. This guy has worked 6 years, put together a big machine and has put together a serious campaign.”

    The former House speaker went on to recognize Romney –- the former Massachusetts governor who swept all 5 primaries yesterday –- as the man who will compete against President Obama in the fall.

    “I do think it's pretty clear that Gov. Romney is ultimately going to be the nominee and we'll do everything we can to make sure that he is, in fact, effective, and that we as a team are effective both in winning this fall and then, frankly, in governing," Gingrich said to the roughly 75 people in attendance, noting he still believes he would be a better candidate.

    Calling himself a “citizen” multiple times inside Georgio’s Restaurant, the speaker vowed to stay involved in the presidential race and admitted he is working out the details of his “transition” this week (although would not define the meaning of his transition when asked by reporters following the event).

    "We're going to stay very, very active,” Gingrich promised. “But I am committed to this party. I am committed to defeating Obama. We will find ways to try to be helpful."

    Gingrich will continue “campaigning” in the Tar Heel State through Friday before heading back to Washington, D.C. to attend the White House Correspondents Association dinner on Saturday night.

  • First Thoughts: Strengths on display

    Romney’s and Obama’s strengths were both on display last night… But so were their weaknesses… Romney, as expected, sweeps the GOP primary contests of CT, DE, NY, PA, and RI… Gingrich: “We are going to look realistically where we are at”… Santorum still not 100% embracing Romney… Have both of these men ensured they’ll be speaking in the afternoon in Tampa?... Veepstakes watch: Rubio delivers foreign-policy speech… Ad watch: Priorities USA and Crossroads GPS up with new TV ads… And two incumbent Dems (Altmire and Holden) go down to defeat.

     

     

    This photo combo shows President Barack Obama in Chapel Hill, N.C. on April 24, 2012, and Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on April 18, 2012 in Charlotte, N.C.


     

    *** Strengths on display: For the two men who will square off for the presidency in November, Tuesday night displayed the strengths of each. As he swept last night’s five primary contests, Mitt Romney delivered one of his best speeches of the cycle, focusing on the economy and emphasizing his business background. “As I look around at the millions of Americans without work, the graduates who can't get a job, the soldiers who return home to an unemployment line, it breaks my heart,” he said. “This does not have to be. It is the result of failed leadership and of a faulty vision.” Romney also stated, “After 25 years, I know how to lead us out of this stagnant Obama economy and into a job-creating recovery.” Indeed, our recent NBC/WSJ poll found Romney leading Obama (40%-34%) on who would be better for having good ideas how to improve the economy.

    The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd explains Mitt Romney newest test – explaining why he should replace President Barack Obama.

    *** Romney on the economy, Obama on likeability: Meanwhile, we saw President Obama address two audiences of enthusiastic college students -- and he’ll speak to a third today at the University of Iowa at 2:20 pm ET -- pushing for Congress to keep student loans low and reminding these students that his own situation was similar to theirs. “This shouldn’t be a partisan issue.  And yet, the Republicans who run Congress right now have not yet said whether or not they’ll stop your rates from doubling,” Obama said at the University of North Carolina. He added at the University of Colorado, “We only finished paying off our student loans about eight years ago. Think about that: I'm the president of the United States, and so here I am and we were writing those checks every month.” Then he slow-jammed the news with Jimmy Fallon, demonstrating personal skills that his GOP opponent doesn’t have.  And in our NBC/WSJ poll, Obama crushed Romney on being easygoing and likeable (54%-18%) and being compassionate enough to understand average people (52%-23%).

    *** But weaknesses were also on display, too: But we also caught glimpses of weaknesses of both men, which will certainly come up again in the next six months. Romney last night laid out the “why not Obama” case very well, and that could be a powerful argument with nearly six in 10 thinking the country is headed in the wrong direction. Yet what was missing was the “why him?” In fact, he talked about his wife Ann and his father who grew up poor. But outside of his business background, he didn’t talk about himself. In addition, we were reminded that Romney will have a difficult time relating to others. “I’d say that you might have heard that I was successful in business. And that rumor is true,” he said. (Romney didn’t seem to realize that the line about “it’s still the economy, and we’re not stupid” needed a punchier/smirkier delivery.) For Obama, we were reminded that despite his enthusiastic audiences, this isn’t 2008. As the New York Times’ Peter Baker writes, “Mr. Obama is no longer the avatar of promise and possibility; he is the incumbent presiding over an anemic job market awaiting future graduates. He is a figure of compromised ideals asking for forbearance as he seeks to live up to the sky-high expectations he inspired the first time around.”

    *** Romney’s sweep: As mentioned above, Romney -- as expected -- swept last night’s five GOP primary contests. With the Republican race effectively over since Rick Santorum’s exit earlier this month, Romney won either 60% of the vote, or close to it, in every state. In Connecticut (with 91% reporting), it was Romney 67%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 10%, and Santorum 7%; in Delaware (99% reporting), Romney 56%, Gingrich 27%, Paul 11%, and Santorum 6%; in New York (77% reporting), Romney 62%, Paul 16%, Gingrich 13%, Santorum 9%; in Pennsylvania (99% reporting), Romney 58%, Santorum 18%, Paul 13%, and Gingrich 10%; and in Rhode Island (99% reporting), Romney 63%, Paul 24%, Gingrich 6%, and Santorum 6%. And here’s NBC’s delegate breakdown after last night: Romney 844, Santorum 260, Gingrich 137, and Paul 79. 

    *** Gingrich: “We are going to look realistically at where we are at”: As for Gingrich, he made Delaware a do-or-die contest, and he didn’t win. And after his disappointing finish, he suggested that he may exit the presidential race in the coming days, NBC’s Alex Moe reports. “I want you to know over the next few days, we’re going to look realistically at where we are at” in the campaign, Gingrich told a crowd of just one hundred people at his election night rally, calling himself a “citizen” rather than a candidate. And this just happened this morning while Gingrich was campaigning in North Carolina today, Moe adds: Gingrich called Romney the nominee. “I do think it's pretty clear that Gov. Romney is ultimately going to be the nominee, and we'll do everything we can to make sure that he is, in fact, effective, and that we as a team are effective both in winning this fall and then, frankly, in governing."

    *** Santorum still not 100% giddy about Romney: Santorum, meanwhile, announced on CNN last night that he will be meeting with some of Romney’s advisers today, and NBC’s Andrew Rafferty has confirmed that Santorum and Romney will meet together on May 4. But on CNN last night, Santorum didn’t enthusiastically embrace Romney. Here was the transcript, per NBC’s Morgan Parmet:

    PIERS MORGAN: But you believe that Mitt Romney is the right guy?
    SANTORUM: I believe he's the better--obviously, I believed I was the better choice, but then I'm not in this race anymore.
    MORGAN: So he's won the race?
    SANTORUM: He's won the race.
    MORGAN: Is he therefore the right guy?
    SANTORUM: Yeah, absolutely. He's the person that is going to go up against Barack Obama. It's pretty clear and we need to win this race. We need to beat Barack Obama.
    MORGAN: You've just endorsed Mitt Romney
    SANTORUM: Well, if that's what you want to call it. You can call it whatever you want.

    *** Did Santorum and Newt hold out too long? After reading that exchange and also seeing Gingrich stay in the race probably a month too long (after not winning Alabama and Mississippi), we have this question: Did both Santorum and Gingrich hold out too long? What does Romney owe them now? Hope they enjoy speaking in the afternoon in Tampa.

    *** Veepstakes watch: Marco Rubio will deliver a foreign-policy speech at the Brookings Institution at noon ET.

    *** Ad watch: As we first reported on Monday, the pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action and the League of Conservation Voters have teamed up for a new TV ad to air in Colorado and Nevada. And we now have the ad -- it hits Romney for being “in the tank for Big Oil.” And Crossroad GPS has announced it’s going up with a $1.2 million ad buy in the Senate contests of Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Virginia.

    *** Two Dem incumbents go down to defeat: Also in Pennsylvania last night, two Democratic congressional incumbents – Jason Altmire and Tim Holden – were defeated. Altmire lost to fellow Dem Rep. Mark Critz in a match-up of two incumbents due to redistricting. And Critz ended up winning due to old-fashioned labor’s boots on the ground; it was the old Murtha machine in action (and Critz used to work for Murtha). Bottom line: Altmire got out-organized. Meanwhile, Holden lost to a political neophyte. But with Congress’ low approval ratings, it is surprising when these longtime members lose?

    Countdown to Election Day: 196 days

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  • Programming notes

    *** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Obama-Biden 2012 Deputy Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter… Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on Romney’s sweep last night and road ahead… NBC’s Pete Williams on today’s immigration arguments before the Supreme Court… More 2012 news with AP’s Beth Fouhy, msnbc/Bloomberg View’s Jonathan Alter, and National Review’s Reihan Salam.

    *** Tuesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews former President Jimmy Carter, Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT), Jordan Sekulow, NYU Law School’s Kenji Yoshino, Politico’s John Harris, and journalist Karen Hunter.

    *** Wednesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’S Thomas Roberts talks with Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) & Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) about the AZ immigration law, Former FBI Dep. Director Tim Murphy on the Secret Service, NBCLatino.com’s Alicia Menendez, Politico’s Joe Williams, and GOP strategist J.P. Friere.

    *** Wednesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Time’s Rana Foroohar, “The Real Romney" author Scott Helman, Wes Moore, New York Times Magazine Editor Hugo Lindgren, SCOTUSBLOG's Tom Goldstein, and MSNBC hosts Dylan Ratigan & Martin Bashir.

    *** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, Obama senior adviser David Axelrod, Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO), Sen. Olympia Snow (R-ME), Education Secretary Arne Duncan, Romney adviser Kevin Madden, NBC’s Pete Williams and NBC’s Kate Snow.

    *** Wednesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Michael Smerconish , Maria Teresa Kumar, and Andre Segura.

  • 2012: Popular spouses

    The Washington Post: “President Obama and Mitt Romney -- his likely competitor for the country’s top job -- have one thing in common: they are both less popular than their wives. In a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, first lady Michelle Obama continues to check in with a sky-high favorable rating of 69 percent, well above our latest read on the president himself. And in the first Post-ABC numbers on Ann Romney, 40 percent of Americans have positive impressions, with fewer, 30 percent, holding negative ones -- and just as many undecided. In our poll last week, her husband, the former governor of Massachusetts, had more detractors than supporters.”

    “A Democratic super PAC backing President Barack Obama's re-election and an environmental group are airing $1 million in advertising in Colorado and Nevada seeking to tie Mitt Romney to oil companies,” the AP writes. It paints Romney as the “$200 million man.”

    Crossroads GPS is up with $1.2 million in ads across five states.

    The Obama campaign is out with a video this morning highlighting that Romney supports the Ryan budget, which would cap Pell Grants over the next 10 years.

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