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  • Gingrich demands Obama apologize for De Niro joke

     

    SHREVEPORT, La. -- Newt Gingrich slammed Robert De Niro’s comments last night at a fundraiser for President Obama, demanding that the president apologize for the actor's joke that America isn't yet again ready for a white first lady.

    “I do want to say one thing on behalf of both my wife, and on behalf of Karen Santorum and on behalf of Ann Romney, and that is I think Robert De Niro is wrong,” Gingrich said as he began his speech at Strawn's Eat Shop Too. “I think the country is ready for a new first lady, and he doesn’t have to describe it in racial terms.”

    At an Obama for America fundraiser in New York City Monday night, attended by Michelle Obama, De Niro joked about a possible GOP first lady.

    "Callista Gingrich. Karen Santorum. Ann Romney. Now do you really think our country is ready for a white first lady?" De Niro asked at the top of his remarks at Locanda Verde restaurant as the crowd yelled “no.” “Too soon, right?," he said.

    A spokeswoman for the first lady issued a statement shortly after Gingrich concluded his remarks, calling De Niro’s comments “inappropriate.”

    "We believe the joke was inappropriate," Olivia Alair, campaign press secretary to the first lady, said in a statement.

    Gingrich criticized the remarks as “inexcusable” and called on President Obama to personally apologize.

    “It is exactly wrong, it divides the country,” the former House speaker said. “If people on the left want to talk about radio talk show hosts, then everybody in the country ought to hold the president accountable when somebody at his event says something as utterly, totally unacceptable as Robert De Niro said last night, and I call on the president to apologize for him.”

    While Gingrich stood up for all three women involved in the actor’s joke, he of course has his favorite.

    “I have a personal preference, obviously, for Callista to be the first lady,” the speaker said to cheers in the room. “But, I tell you, I would be very proud and very honored to have Ann Romney as the first lady or Karen Santorum as the first lady. I think that just what De Niro said is just beyond the pale and he should be ashamed of himself.”

    NBC's Carrie Dann contributed to this report.

  • New GOP budget puts presidential candidates on the spot

     

    Updated 1:25 p.m. -- The release of the new Republican budget on Tuesday puts their party’s presidential hopefuls in a potentially difficult spot, forcing them to embrace or reject proposals that have little chance of becoming law, but could carry some political risk.

    House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan joins Morning Joe to preview his 2012 budget plan. The plan would get rid of the current six tax brackets in favor of two tax levels and would get rid of the Alternative Minimum Tax.

    Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis, released his second official budget as the chairman of the committee overseeing fiscal matters; the plan contained proposals for sweeping reforms to entitlement programs, along with other cuts in spending.

    Related: House GOP unveils budget blueprint

    That means, for a second year straight, the field of GOP candidates should expect questions about their positions on the plan, which could prove problematic to their own campaigns.

    “I would tell them to support it,” said Gretchen Hamel, the executive director of the right-leaning Public Notice, of her advice to the GOP hopefuls. “I think that they have a lot to gain by supporting a bold proposal on Capitol Hill. They also find a way to speak to the base through this.”

    She added, “I would just be honest when it comes to the stickier parts. Maybe you don't agree with the whole solution, but you agree it has to be addressed."

    Ryan consulted and spoke with each of the Republican presidential hopefuls in the days leading up to his budget announcement. Those conversations may go a way toward reprising the events from last year, when Democrats tried to make Ryan’s first budget, released a year ago, politically radioactive for Republicans. They charged the Ryan plan would “end Medicare,” and had even gained a degree of traction with that messaging until the scandal involving New York Rep. Anthony Weiner engulfed the 24-hour news cycle.

    So potent was the issue that Romney hedged for months on the plan. "I appreciate what Paul Ryan has done," Romney said last May, per an Associated Press account. "I'm going to have my own plan."

    While Romney didn't fully embrace Ryan's plan, his eventual proposal was largely simpatico with it. What's more, the two met on Capitol Hill last fall for about an hour. Press accounts at the time indicated the pair's conversation centered on reforms to Social Security and other entitlement programs.

    Romney eventually said he would sign the Ryan budget if he were president, and his campaign embraced the plan more fully last fall as a means of attacking Newt Gingrich.

    The former House speaker had famously decried the Ryan budget at first as “right-wing social engineering,” precisely because of its bold changes to entitlements. Gingrich backtracked on that criticism after Ryan publicly quipped, “With friends like that, who needs the left?”

    Democrats will be attentive to how Romney and the other hopeful nominees react to the new proposal, though they believe Republicans had already made their beds with support for last year’s budget.

    “There’s a reason they call them the third rail of politics,” said Eddie Vale, a spokesman for Protect Your Care, a group dedicated to promoting the president’s health reform law. “After the backlash they faced last year, even from Newt Gingrich, it’s amazing that they’re going to take another whack at it.”

    Ryan argued Tuesday on "Morning Joe" that it was incumbent on the GOP to offer a contrast with Obama on major spending programs in this fall's election — a kind of referendum on the reforms he and other Republicans have proposed.

    "Let's give the country the choice of very clear two futures, let the people of this country decide in the fall and whoever wins that referendum gets to implement that plan," Ryan said.

    He added later at a press conference on Capitol Hill that he expects the eventual nominee to speak boldly on budgetary issues.

    "Whoever our nominee is going to be owes the country that choice of two futures; we’re helping them put this together," he said. "And each of these people running for president have all given their various ideas and reforms with perfectly jive or consistent with what we’re proposing here."

    Liberal groups will largely wrap the new Ryan plan and any of its proposed changes to Medicare into their overall defense of the president’s health care law during the next two weeks, which features the anniversary of President Barack Obama signing that bill into law, and Supreme Court arguments challenging the constitutionality of its reforms.

    A firm embrace of the Ryan plan would also carry some political benefit for any of the GOP hopefuls.

    Ryan is considered one of the GOP’s rising stars, and his name is on many short lists to become the running mate of the eventual nominee. And he's one of the few Republican figures of note yet to make an endorsement in the presidential race, and his support would help any of the candidates firm up their fiscal conservative credentials.

  • First Thoughts: All eyes on Illinois

    Mitt Romney is hoping a decisive win in Illinois will quiet talk that the Republican nominating fight could end in the first contested RNC since 1976. The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd shares his first reads of the day.

    All eyes on Illinois… Tonight’s primary gives Romney an opportunity to change the perception about the GOP race, even if he can’t change the math on getting to 1,144… Caution about tonight’s race: The statewide presidential preference vote doesn’t determine delegates; voters have to select pledged delegates for each candidate… Polls close at 8:00 pm ET… Obama and Romney have opposite fundraising problems… Paul Ryan’s Budget, Part 2… But don’t forget: Ryan voted against Simpson-Bowles.

    *** All eyes on Illinois: The earliest Mitt Romney could win the 1,144 delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination, per our count, is May 29, and that’s assuming he wins every single delegate after today. If you assume that he wins a 60%-40% split of the remaining the delegates, Romney won’t get to 1,144 until June 26, when Utah holds its primary. And if Romney and Rick Santorum continue to trade victories as they’ve been doing over the past month -- with Santorum winning his demographic strongholds and Romney winning his -- Romney would fall about 50 delegates short of the magic number, according to our math. So that’s the delegate reality for the former Massachusetts governor: He leads, he isn’t going to lose his lead, yet crossing the finish line won’t be easy or come quickly. Romney can’t change the math, but he can change the perception of the race. And he gets another chance to do so in today’s Illinois primary.

    Don Emmert / AFP - Getty Images

    Presidential candidate Mitt Romney waves to supporters at Bradley University in Peoria, Ill.

    *** How Romney can change the perception: Every time Romney has had an opportunity to put the race away -- by winning in South Carolina, by winning convincingly in Ohio, by winning just one Deep South state Tennessee, Alabama or Mississippi -- he’s failed to do so. But by decisively winning tonight in Illinois (and we’re talking about a double-digit-plus victory and breaking 50%), Romney can deliver a perception blow to Santorum, extinguishing the former Pennsylvania senator’s “insurgent fire,” as the New York Times puts it. And sweeping the April 3 contests -- with the crown jewel being Wisconsin -- would serve as an exclamation point. That probably would finally get the Haley Barbours, the Mitch Danielseseseses (say it with us), and the Paul Ryans (more on him below) off the sidelines. But if Romney only ekes out a single-digit victory tonight after outspending Santorum 7-1, and if he loses Wisconsin, then this demographic split would be for real. And that means this GOP race would go into June or beyond.

    *** How Illinois awards its delegates: Per NBC’s John Bailey, Illinois allocates its delegates (54 which are up for grabs tonight) in an unorthodox way. While there is a statewide preference vote for president, the actual delegates are individually elected in each congressional district. So when a voter goes to fill out a ballot, there’s a section where they will vote for a presidential candidate and then there’s a second section for delegates with the delegates’ pledged candidate printed next to their name -- for example: JOHN SMITH (ROMNEY). Each district is given between two and four delegates, and that’s weighted based on how strongly Republican a district has voted in the past. Do note: Santorum failed to file delegate slates in four Illinois districts -- the 4th, 5th, 7th, and 13th districts -- so he’ll miss out on a combined 10 delegates. By the way, Romney’s delegates are listed first on every Congressional District ballot. Why? They were the only ones to file their full slate of delegates in the first hour of filing. The rest of the delegate candidates are listed in order that they were filed with the state. Translation: Santorum’s slates (where available) are last.

    *** What else you need to know: Polls close in Illinois at 8:00 pm ET… In addition to tonight’s 54 delegates, the state will elect 12 more delegates at its June convention… Early voting has been going on in Illinois for nearly a month… Last cycle, Illinois held its primary on Super Tuesday, so the race was still competitive at the time: Nearly 900,000 Republicans turned out (899,422 to be exact), and John McCain won the state with 47.5% of the vote, Romney finished second with 29%, and Mike Huckabee was third with 16.5% (McCain nearly SWEPT the delegates, by the way)... And in this year’s advertising race in Illinois, Team Romney (the campaign plus the Super PAC) outspent Team Santorum nearly 7-to-1, $3.6 million to $527,000.

    *** Opposite fundraising problems: Speaking of fundraising, Romney and Obama have opposite fundraising problems: Obama, as the Washington Post wrote yesterday, isn’t raking in as many high-dollar checks as he did in ’08, while Romney is lacking small grassroots donors. But if you had to choose between a stronghold of large donors or small grassroots donors, you’d probably choose the latter. Why? You can keep going back to small donors, while you can’t if someone has already cut you $2,500 checks for the primary and general. In fact, according to an analysis by the Campaign Finance Institute, two-thirds of Romney’s fundraising through Dec. 31, 2011 had come from donors giving $2,500. By comparison, just 16% of Obama’s fundraising comes from $2,500 checks. So it’s striking to see that the Romney campaign isn’t spending a single cent on advertising in the upcoming Louisiana (3/24) and Wisconsin (4/3), though the pro-Romney Super PAC has spent a combined $2 million in those two states. Is the Romney campaign -- which had $7.3 million in the bank as of Feb. 29 -- running out of cash? We’ll have an answer a month from now, when we’ll get March FEC numbers. (February FEC numbers are due today.)

    *** A look at the upcoming ad spending:
    Louisiana
    : Restore Our Future $612,000, Red White and Blue Fund $244,000, Winning Freedom $50,000, Santorum $32,000, Winning Our Future $2,900
    Wisconsin
    : Restore Our Future $1.3 million, Santorum campaign $39,000

    *** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Romney fundraises in the Prairie State and attends his election night party in Schaumburg…Paul appears on The Tonight Show…Gingrich hosts a meet-and-greet in Shreveport, LA…Meanwhile, Santorum hosts his election night party in Gettysburg, PA

    *** Paul Ryan’s Budget, Part 2: Besides today’s Illinois primary, the other big story in politics today is the rollout of the House GOP budget. In in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan previews this rollout. “Our budget's Medicare reforms make no changes for those in or near retirement. For those who will retire a decade from now, our plan provides guaranteed coverage options financed by a premium-support payment. And this year, our budget adds even more choices for seniors, including a traditional fee-for-service Medicare option.” NBC’s Frank Thorp reports that the budget also contains tax reform -- having just two income brackets (10% and 25%) and reducing the corporate rate to 25%.

    *** Don’t forget: Ryan voted against Simpson-Bowles: In his Wall Street Journal op-ed, Ryan touts this tax reform by saying it was supported by Simpson-Bowles. “Tax reforms based on lowering tax rates and closing loopholes go back to the Reagan administration, when Democrats served as the congressional co-sponsors of the landmark 1986 tax reform law. More recently, the chairmen of President Obama's bipartisan fiscal commission put forward a plan for lower rates and a broader base.” But here’s what undercuts that assertion by Ryan, as well has holding the high ground in the budget debate: He VOTED AGAINST Simpson-Bowles. Here’s something that was supported by Tom Coburn (R) and Dick Durbin (D), but Ryan voted against it. Yes, Ryan has since team up with Sen. Ron Wyden (D) on the altered Medicare proposal. But when he had the opportunity with Simpson-Bowles, Ryan put ideology ahead of bipartisan cooperation -- the exact thing he accuses the president and many Democrats of doing.

    *** Biden being Biden: At a fundraiser last night in New Jersey, NBC’s Carrie Dann notes, Vice President Biden engaged in some hyperbole that might get some mileage from those interpreting Biden’s comment as a slight to the masterminds of D-Day or other notable military feats in the past few hundred years. Here’s what Biden said about the Osama bin Laden raid:  "You can go back 500 years. You cannot find a more audacious plan. Never knowing for certain. We never had more than a 48% probability that he was there."

    Countdown to Louisiana primary: 4 days
    Countdown to DC, Maryland, Wisconsin primaries: 14 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 231 days

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  • Programming notes

    *** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Obama campaign senior strategist David Axelrod… GOP strategist and informal Romney adviser Charlie Black… State Sen. Kirk Dillard (R-IL) breaks down what a tight GOP primary looks like in Illinois, including his own unsuccessful 2010 gubernatorial primary bid… More 2012 news with the Washington Post’s Nia-Malika Henderson, Politico’s Lois Romano and former RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

    *** Tuesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews former Obama White House Communications Director Anita Dunn, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, the Washington Post’s Dana Milbank, Rep Allyson Schwartz (D-PA); the New Yorker’s James Surowiecki, and liberal writer Joe Conason.

    *** Tuesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up:  MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt, Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), DCCC Chair Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), “Politics Nation” Host Rev. Al Sharpton, Richard Wolffe, Doug Thornell and Trey Hardin.

    *** Tuesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, Pro-Obama Super PAC Head Bill Burton, GOP strategist Phil Musser, and the Huffington Post’s Jen Bendery

    *** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, Hogan Gidley of the Santorum campaign, Andrea Saul of the Romney campaign, Pakistan Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, Politico’s Jim VandeHei, NBC’s Peter Alexander, NBC’s Ron Mott, and Newsweek’s Eleanor Clift.

    *** Tuesday’s “News Nations with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews the Chicago Sun Times’ Lynn Sweet, the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, syndicated talk- show host Steve Deace, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA), and Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC)

  • 2012: Land of Lincoln

    The front page of the Chicago Tribune: “After GOP fireworks, Illinois off to the polls.”

    More from the Tribune: “Illinois primary voters head to the polls today to choose nominees for the fall in races from the White House to county courthouses after a final week of campaigning that saw the Republican presidential battle overshadow lower-level candidates seeking attention. For a state that is home to President Barack Obama and run by Democrats, the grueling, months-long GOP battle for the nomination provides the state's out-of-power Republicans with a real say on national politics for the first time in decades.” (And the first quote in the story from a candidate is Santorum not caring about the unemployment rate.)

    The Chicago Sun-Times: “The day before the Illinois primary, Mitt Romney visited President Barack Obama’s neighborhood Monday to slam the president’s economic policies, while Rick Santorum ventured to Ronald Reagan’s birthplace to put a fine point on his brand of conservatism. The political symbolism, tailored to Illinois Republicans, developed as the rivals stumped around the state Monday.”

    “In the final hours before a primary in this delegate-rich state, Mitt Romney said his economic background made him uniquely qualified for the presidency while Rick Santorum, hoping for another campaign-altering victory, resurrected charges that Romney’s business experience only made him beholden to Wall Street financiers,” the Boston Globe notes.

    The AP: “There will be no knockout punch, but an increasingly confident Mitt Romney expects to tighten his grasp on the Republican presidential nomination with the Illinois primary.” (AP also has some quick facts on Illinois.)

    Fun fact of the day: Smart Politics: "Only one Illinois Republican presidential primary has been decided by less than 10 points out of 25 contests since 1912." (h/t Political Wire.)

    ROMNEY: The Boston Globe on Romney’s Medicare plan: “Last week Mitt Romney turned 65 and made a decision - to forgo Medicare, the federal health insurance program for seniors that he would deny other Americans until they are 67 as a way to rein in its skyrocketing costs. Moreover, Romney’s plan to repeal President Obama’s health reform law would strip 65- and 66-year-olds of that law’s assurance that insurers would have to cover them even if they have pre-existing conditions, as many elders do. The two policies would result in many more uninsured seniors because they cannot afford, or even obtain, coverage, according to many health care analysts and studies about the issue.”

    The New York Post calls Romney’s admission that the economy is getting better a gaffe: “Mitt Romney is running for president claiming to be the candidate best prepared to fix the ailing economy — but yesterday the Republican awkwardly let slip that he believes the economy is already improving without him.”

    Romney said, “I believe the economy is coming back, by the way. We’ll see what happens. It’s had ups and downs. I think it’s finally coming back. The economy always comes back after a recession, of course.” The Post: “Recognizing that bullish statements might undercut his election effort, Romney stressed that the recession has been ‘deeper than it needed to be and a slower recovery than it should have been, by virtue of the policies of this president. Almost everything [Obama’s] done has made it harder for this economy to recover.’”

    Romney’s “speech [yesterday] did not include any new policy proposals, but it marked a sharpening of his rhetoric and displayed a renewed attempt at criticizing President Obama over an economy that is showing signs of improving,” the Boston Globe writes.

    Getting some buzz is Romney’s comments at the University of Chicago that, “I don’t see how a young American can vote for, well, can vote for a Democrat.” The Washington Post points out: “Exit poll data show that in every presidential election since 1992, 18-to-29-year-olds have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. In 2008, 66 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds voted for President Obama – the widest margin for either party in at least the past four decades.”

    The Romney-Paul alliance: “Missouri supporters of Mitt Romney and Ron Paul ‘have forged an alliance in some of Missouri's local caucuses,’” the AP reports,” Political Wire notes. "Rick Santorum easily won Missouri's non-binding primary last month. But he was shut out from receiving delegates at some of the local caucuses that occurred over the weekend after Romney and Paul supporters combined to advance their own slate of delegates."

    SANTORUM: The Washington Post dives into Santorum’s move to devout Catholicism, his affiliation with one of the most conservative groups within the Catholic Church - Opus Dei, that Catholic teachings should influence policy, and how he feels about Protestantism -- “If you look at mainline Protestantism in this country, it is in shambles. It is gone from the world of Christianity,” Santorum said in a 2008 speech at Ave Maria University in Florida. The story also noted that Santorum converted former Sen. and current Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback to Catholicism.

    But as strictly as Santorum adheres to Catholicism on abortion, he is not so absolute on the death penalty, something that is counter to the Catholic Church’s opposition. The Vatican, for example, denounced the execution of Saddam Hussein. Santorum, however, told CNN Jan. 20: "When there is certainty, that's the case that capital punishment can be used. If there is not certainty, under the law, it shouldn't be used."

    Santorum was also a staunch supporter of the war in Iraq, even though Pope John Paul II condemned it, calling it a “crime against peace.” For the record, the church is not wholly opposed to violence. It has a “Just War Doctrine,” which lays out the circumstances in which it believes violence can be justified.

    Also getting attention is this Santorum quote yesterday: "I don't care what the unemployment rate's going to be. Doesn't matter to me. My campaign doesn't hinge on unemployment rates and growth rates. It's something more foundational that's going on."

    Santorum defended himself on FOX last night, per GOP 12: "What I said was that the unemployment rate -- it didn't matter what it was between now and election time, because the fundamental issue that's causing the unemployment, that's causing the economic distress in our country, is the fact that the government is imposing its will and mandating things on people and creating a yoke on top of businesses that makes it hard to employ.”

    “As Illinois Republicans vote in the state's presidential primary, GOP hopeful Rick Santorum is reconnecting with a son of Illinois remembered for one afternoon he spent in Pennsylvania,” AP notes. “Santorum plans to watch Tuesday's results from Illinois at a campaign party in Gettysburg, Pa., the venue for President Abraham Lincoln's famous Civil War address.”

    “As if Rick Santorum's campaign trip to Puerto Rico couldn't get any more cringe-worthy. The Republican presidential candidate is red-faced after a tourist snapped a less-than-flattering photo of him sunbathing poolside on the island,” the New York Daily News writes. (Photo included.) Santorum said, "I know I probably should lose, 15, 20 pounds, but I'm working on it. … "I didn't know that anyone was taking a picture of us. I apologize to all of those because I'm sure that's not a pretty sight."

  • Obama agenda: O'Bama

    The president and vice president meet with the Irish prime minister today. In the evening, the president and first lady host a St. Patrick’s Day reception.

    “Michelle Obama fired up the stars in Tribeca Monday night for her hubby’s reelection bid,” the New York Daily News writes. “An A-list crowd — Beyoncé and her mother Tina Knowles, ‘The View’ host Whoopi Goldberg, Star Jones, actors Ben Stiller, Angela Bassett and Alfre Woodard, and movie mogul Harvey Weinstein and his fashion designer wife — turned out for the Obama cash bash. The fund-raiser was hosted by Robert De Niro and his wife, Grace Hightower, at Locanda Verde, the restaurant in his Greenwich Hotel in Tribeca.”

    More: “Speaking to the starry crowd of about 85 people, De Niro opened the night by deadpanning: ‘Callista Gingrich. Karen Santorum. Ann Romney. Now do you really think our country is ready for a white first lady?’ The crowd roared and one person yelled, ‘No!’ ‘Too soon, right?’ De Niro added.”

    “For some Obama supporters, the presidential campaign’s fundraising totals, released Monday, might have left something to be desired,” The Hill reports.

  • Congress: New Ryan plan might not get out of committee

    “Facing last-minute resistance from members of his own party, House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan will dive headfirst into turbulent water in releasing his fiscal 2013 budget today,” Roll Call reports. “The Wisconsin Republican plans to mark up the resolution Wednesday, and he will need near-unified GOP support to pass it out of committee. But it remains unclear whether he has the votes. With hours to go before the budget's rollout, hard-line conservatives spent Monday mounting an eleventh-hour charge against the proposed $1.028 trillion spending level and the amount of time that the plan would take to balance the budget, according to several GOP aides familiar with the situation.”

    “Republicans and Democrats are skirmishing over President Barack Obama’s health care law this week, and the fight is expected to intensify with the Supreme Court hearing arguments over the law’s constitutionality starting next week,” Roll Call reports. “The battle is part of an underlying war — the presidential campaign — and top Republicans hope to leverage the attention on the 2-year-old law for maximum political effect. In the House, Republicans are bringing up a bill this week to eliminate a cost-control panel created in the law.”

  • More 2012: Manzullo: Cantor should step down

    ILLINOIS: “Rep. Don Manzullo (R-Ill.) said House Majority Leader Eric Cantor should step down from his leadership position for interfering in Tuesday’s primary,” The Hill writes. “The 10-term congressman said he was ‘outraged’ that Cantor (R-Va.) endorsed freshman Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) in the battle between the two lawmakers, which is growing nastier by the day.”

    MASSACHUSETTS: Did Scott Brown rip off a joke from Conan O’Brien?

    UTAH: Roll Call looks at how Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) turned around his prospects for reelection.

    VIRGINIA: Political Wire: “A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia shows Tim Kaine (D) leading George Allen (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 44%. Also interesting: President Obama leads Mitt Romney by eight points in a general election match up, 50% to 42%, and tops Rick Santorum by nine points, 49% to 40%.”

  • Santorum on defensive in Illinois over unemployment remark

    Republican voters in Illinois are casting their ballots Tuesday in the state's presidential primary. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

    EAST PEORIA, IL -- Rick Santorum began the Monday before the Illinois primary addressing Mitt Romney's claims that he is "an economic lightweight." By the day's end, it was the former Pennsylvania senator's own words that had him on the defensive.

    Making four stops in the Land of Lincoln, Santorum suggested at a rally in Moline that the nation's unemployment rate "doesn't matter to me."  The point, he later explained, was that his campaign is based on more fundamental issues than the current jobless numbers and that Republicans do not believe it is the government's role to create employment, only to create an atmosphere for job growth.


    But it took little time for his chief rival for the GOP nomination to pounce on the comments. Stumping in Peoria less than two hours later, Romney used Santorum's line to further his case that he the only candidate capable of handling the economy.

     

    "One of the people who is running also for the Republican nomination today said that he doesn’t care about the unemployment rate, that does bother me. I do care about the unemployment rate," said Romney.

    Santorum's remarks came on the heels of a different eyebrow-raising incident in a Louisiana prayer service on Sunday night. As Santorum sat off to the side in Baton Rouge church, pastor Dennis Terry, who introduced the Republican hopeful, delivered some fiery rhetoric about religious tolerance.  "I don’t care what the liberals say, I don’t care what the naysayers say, this nation was founded as a Christian nation," Terry said, adding, "There’s only one God.  There’s only one God.  And his name is Jesus."

    When pressed by reporters on Monday about the comments, Santorum said he did not hold the pastor's views.  "I believe in freedom of religion and all religions are welcome and should be. I think I've made that pretty clear throughout my campaign."

    The distractions came less than 24 hours before Illinois voters go to the polls to decide how their 54 delegates will be allocated.  The state is largely expected to favor Romney, but a strong showing from Santorum could further cement his place as the only candidate able to mount a challenge to the former Massachusetts governor's front-runner status.

    With more than 15 media appearances on Monday in addition to the four campaign rallies, the Santorum campaign was hoping to leave Illinois on high note.  As Romney delivered an economic address at the University of Chicago, Santorum touted his blue collar candidacy in Dixon, the hometown of GOP hero Ronald Reagan.

    "We need someone who can talk and strike blows for big things like Reagan did for freedom, for America," he said while standing in front of bronze statue of Reagan on a horse.  "Let’s just be brutally honest about it. There’s one candidate in this race who could never make this race about freedom because he simply abandoned freedom when he was governor of Massachusetts and he abandoned it when he promoted Obamacare in 2009.”

    Throughout the day he called out Romney over his ties to Wall Street and a job creation record that, Santorum said, was one of the worst in the country while Romney led the Bay State.

    But during his final rally outside a pizza shop in East Peoria, Santorum seemed to acknowledge the toll his off-the-cuff style has taken on him. "When you got out there and you don’t talk from a teleprompter, and you’re not, you know, reading notes that someone else gave you, occasionally you say something things, you wish you had a, you know, a do-over," he said.

    "But you know what, I think it’s important that you get a sense of how real the candidate is, mistakes and all.”

    NBC's Jamie Novogrod contributed to this report.

    Follow NBC's Andrew Rafferty on Twitter

  • Romney: 'Best thing I can do for student debt is get you a good job'

     

    PEORIA, Ill. – Mitt Romney's final public appearance before voters here head to the polls was not a typical rally or economic-messaging event.

    Instead, a crowd of more than 1,000 college students and area residents were treated to a town hall event, in which Romney made an economic pitch targeted directly at younger voters, while attempting to hold the line on his positions on issues that matter particularly to college students, like government's role in managing student debt or covering birth control.

    On the manicured campus of Bradley University, where alum and Romney endorser Rep. Aaron Schock introduced him on Monday night, Romney expanded on his Monday afternoon economic speech, explaining in greater depth what he meant when he told an audience at the University of Chicago that he couldn't understand why young people would vote for Democrats instead of Republicans.

    "I and my party are also devoted to making sure we don't pass on to you trillions upon trillions of dollars in debt. We have in the Democratic party people who are consumed with giving more and more benefits to me and my generation, and passing on those burdens to you," Romney said. "Every trillion dollars this president amasses, every year, guess who is going to pay that? Not me. I'm gone. I'm too old to pay it back. You're going to pay it back."

    Romney has occasionally struggled to win over younger voters this primary season. In the tight race in neighboring Iowa he finished third among the 17 to 29-year-old demographic, behind Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. In his Ohio victory, Romney finished nine points behind Santorum with voters 18 to 29. In blowout wins in Florida and Arizona, Romney carried the youth vote by double digits.

    On Monday evening, Romney told his mostly-younger audience that his economic agenda was designed with them in mind.

    "My party, my vision, is about protecting economic freedom for you," Romney said. "I've had it for me. I've had economic freedom. I've achieved beyond my wildest dreams. I want economic freedom for you."

    As the event moved to questions, Romney, who rarely delves into social issues unprompted, took a first question about birth control. Told by a young woman that she would like free birth control as part of her own "pursuit of happiness," Romney first appeared to stumble over the abruptness of the question, then gathered himself into a response that dealt with the economics of such a handout, not the morality.

    "Look, let me tell you something,” Romney started. “If you’re looking for free stuff you don’t have to pay for? Vote for the other guy, that’s what he’s all about, O.K.?  That’s not, that’s not what I’m about."

    Likewise, Romney defended his opposition to federal funding for Planned Parenthood, for which he has been roundly criticized by democratic and women's groups in the last few weeks. Asked where women should go for mammograms or other care currently offered by Planned Parenthood after a Romney administration defunded it, the candidate responded:

    "Well they can go wherever they’d like to go; this is a free society. But here’s what I’d say, which is the federal government should not tax these people to pay for Planned Parenthood," Romney said. "The idea of the federal government funding Planned Parenthood I’m going to say no, we’re going to stop that."

    Regarding student loan debt – a pertinent issue for college students – Romney again opposed government handouts -- or any form of government relief for suffering students, for that matter -- but predicted President Obama would not do the same.

    "Best thing I can do for student debt is get you a good job when you come out," Romney said. "And by the way, get ready for President Obama's claim ... I know he is going to come out at some point and talk about how he is going to make it vanish. And that's another -- here I'll give you something for free -- and I'm not going to do that."

  • Obama campaign: Romney has ‘a significant trust deficit’

    Despite louder and more serious talk among Republican insiders about the possibility of a brokered convention, the Obama campaign once again kept its focus on Mitt Romney.

    In a conference call today to respond to Romney’s speech on economic freedom today at the University of Chicago, the Obama campaign slammed Romney's tax plans today and said he faces "a significant trust deficit" with voters, particularly on the issue of gas prices.

    "Gov. Romney did not mention the issue of energy and gas prices, and I think that's something that's on the mind of all Americans right now," said Cecilia Rouse, a Princeton economics professor, who was a member of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers before leaving the White House in February.

    Rouse went on to argue that reducing America's dependence on foreign oil sources would ease the burden of price spikes – and she took aim at Romney for failing to address fuel costs.

    But the White House was unable to pass a comprehensive energy policy through Congress even with broad Democratic majorities in the president’s first two years.

    The conference call and focus on energy also come as rising gas prices threaten President Obama’s recent momentum and his upcoming tour of swing states to tout new proposals on the subject.

    Asked if President Obama's efforts to address those costs are breaking through to the public, Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt accused Republicans of failing to give the president credit for new drilling initiatives.

    "They're completely distorting the record here," LaBolt said, specifically of GOP candidates of Obama's record on Gulf drilling. "And I think for a candidate like Mitt Romney who's already facing a significant trust deficit with voters across the ideological spectrum that that would compound his issues."

    Without mentioning Newt Gingrich by name, LaBolt also took aim at "elected officials who are going out and saying gas is going to be $2.50 if they get elected."

    On Solyndra, the energy company the president touted and went belly up after receiving a government grant, the campaign would only say that Romney would "turn his back on the clean-energy sector."

    Responding specifically to his speech today, Rouse accused Romney of structuring a tax plan that would hurt middle-income Americans.

    "His plan actually makes our tax system more regressive and really will not help out the middle class," she said.

    And, touting the White House's regulatory reforms, she disputed the widely repeated GOP critique that regulation generally strangles job creation.

    "There is not actually any evidence that regulatory burden actually has a meaningful impact on employment or on the economy now," she contended.

  • House GOP fights to notch signature accomplishments

     

    With just two weeks until a long Easter break, House Republicans are still struggling to show they are able to get something done in a Congress that has been painted as intransigent and divided during their year and a half as the majority.

    Time is dwindling until lawmakers pivot from the business of legislating, and focus on their own re-elections. Republicans have previously sought to score signature accomplishments through legislation, but they complain these items have only died in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

    So during the next two weeks, Republicans will turn to messaging efforts by launching a two-pronged blitz against Democrats, first by highlighting the new GOP budget. The second salvo will coincide with the two-year anniversary of President Obama signing his health reform law into law; the Supreme Court will also hear arguments in a legal challenge to that law next week.

    According to a Republican aide on the House Budget Committee, they see the GOP budget as legislation that “will stand in stark contrast to the president’s budget which ignores our debt crisis, and the Senate Democrat Majority budget, which doesn't exist.”

    Paired with the new budget’s debut will be a vote to repeal a component of the president’s health care law, the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB). The vote to eliminate the program, which Republicans say opens the door to rationed care, is being touted as the 26thtaken by the House to repeal part or all of the law Republicans deride as “ObamaCare.”

    But Democrats view the upcoming fight as a winner with seniors, especially after they somewhat successfully messaged the Republican budget last year as a bid to end Medicare as it’s currently known to most Americans. They also argue that the budget, details of which will be released on Tuesday, essentially reneges on the spending levels agreed upon by Democrats and Republicans during last year’s debt limit deal.

    "What the Republicans are putting forth ends the American Medicare guarantee, transfers cost to our seniors and contributes to the withering on the vine, which has always been their vision for Medicare," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told reporters earlier this month, resurrecting a line Democrats used repeatedly after Republicans released their budget last year.

    The Republican offensive comes seven months before Election Day, but marks an effort to add substance to their legislative record after a session of Congress that’s been defined by spending fights that threatened a government shutdown or credit default several times over the last year and a half.

    After the failed debt limit negotiations, the FAA was forced to temporarily furlough 4,000 workers due to lawmakers’ inability to reach agreement on funding the agency; this led to a partial shutdown. The supercommittee chartered by the debt ceiling agreement similarly failed to reach an agreement on deficit reduction, and a payroll tax debate that saw Republicans relent at the last minute after initially rejecting the Senate’s two-month extension.

    But the Republican majority still has yet to pass any legislation of tangible benefit to voters, such as the transportation and infrastructure legislation they hope to approve in the next two weeks.

    Even that legislation is mired in intramural fighting, which has made it difficult to move forward with the bill, which was once said to be one of House Speaker John Boehner’s (R-OH) top priorities.

    Republican aides say they are still working to build consensus around their own 5-year bill, but Boehner himself has said that if they cannot find the votes on the Republican side they’ll be forced to take-up the Senate’s 2-year plan, or something like it.

    Republicans are quick to point at the over 30 “jobs” bills that have passed through the House, but have failed to be brought up for a vote in the Senate, as proof that they are working to help a floundering economy.

    “You can’t judge Republican accomplishments by the same yard stick as the Democrats,” a GOP leadership aide told NBC, “Our goal was never to create a new entitlement program, our goal is to limit the size of government.”

    Republicans had also previously counted House passage of Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s (R-VA) JOBS Act earlier this month as a victory. But that bill is no longer in the “win” column after Senate Democrats decided to alter the bill with amendments. 

    According to Republicans, it’s not the enormous legislative accomplishments that will remain as their legacy – it’s the underlying shift in the culture on Capitol Hill that will resonate in future Congresses. 

    “Looking back in 10 years you're going to say that this was the Congress when government renewed its commitment to being accountable to the American people,” the aide said.

  • Romney decries administration's economics on Obama's home turf

     

    CHICAGO – Mitt Romney sought to sharpen his contrast with President Obama on the nation’s most pressing economic issues in a Tuesday afternoon speech on the president’s home turf.

    Romney assailed what he called the administration’s “assault on economic freedom” in a speech at the University of Chicago, where Obama was a law professor for 12 years. The school is also reputed as the traditional home to the school of economics that compose the intellectual foundations of modern free-market conservatism.

    Romney castigated the president for applying the "heavy hand of government" too broadly, particularly on taxes and regulations, and told his audience of some 150 students and faculty that the time had come to change the economic course of the country.

    "Over the last several decades, and particularly over the last three years, Washington has consistently encroached upon our freedom. The Obama administration’s assault on our economic freedom is the principal reason why the recovery has been so tepid – why it couldn’t meet their expectations, let alone ours," Romney said. "If we don’t change course now, the assault on freedom could damage our economy and the well-being of American families for decades to come."

    The former Massachusetts governor used the high-profile speech, covered by a large contingent of Chicago and national media, to decry the state of the nation under the Obama administration, but did not roll out any new policy prescriptions of his own.

    "We once built the interstate highway system and the Hoover Dam.  Today, we can’t even build a pipeline," Romney said. "We once led the world in manufacturing, exports, and infrastructure investment.  Today, we lead the world in lawsuits"

    Romney's speech, in which he promised that "our economic freedom will be on the ballot," comes amidst two straight days of campaigning almost solely on kitchen-table economic issues like gas prices and tax relief. While Romney made no mention of his opponents as "economic lightweights" directly in this speech, as he has at each other stop in Illinois, his campaign illuminated the contrast on his behalf, sending out a press release just as Romney's speech ended, quoting his chief rival, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum saying this morning that "the issue in this race is not the economy."

    As Romney was delivering his speech, roughly 100 miles away in Dixon, Illinois, Santorum was talking about freedom, too, attacking Romney for the health care law he passed in Massachusetts.

    "Let’s just be brutally honest about it. There’s one candidate in this race who could never make this race about freedom because he simply abandoned freedom when he was governor of Massachusetts and he abandoned it when he promoted Obamacare in 2009,” Santorum said.

    (Santorum was making reference to a 2009 op-ed by Romney in USA Today in which he argues for modeling national health reform on the plan he enacted as governor of Massachusetts.)

    Near the end of his remarks, Romney remarked on the pet issue of one former candidate, long removed from the nominating contest, when he joked about the end of incandescent light bulb sales in the US, a regulatory battle long fought, and ultimately lost, by Rep. Michelle Bachmann.

    "A regulator would have shut down the Wright Brothers for their “dust pollution," Romney joked. “And the government would have banned Thomas Edison’s light bulb. Oh yeah, Obama’s regulators actually did just that."

    NBC's Andrew Rafferty contributed reporting.

  • Don't forget about tomorrow's competitive congressional primaries

    In addition to Tuesday's closely watched Republican presidential primary, Illinois will also be holding congressional primaries in both parties. And with the state losing one seat -- from 19 congressional districts to 18 -- there are several interesting matchups worth watching Tuesday night:

    IL-16 (R-Don Manzullo; north IL counties)
    This is a nasty Republican primary that pits two GOP incumbents against each other -- young v. old.  Freshman Adam Kinzinger is facing 10-term Rep. Don Manzullo. At age 34 Kinzinger is exactly half the age of 68-year-old Manzullo. The Young Guns PAC of Eric Cantor is backing Kinzinger, and this week the PAC went up with $50,000 in ads against Manzullo. 

    But while the House GOP leadership seems to favor Kinzinger, it's Manzullo who has played up his Tea Party support and endorsement from FreedomWorks PAC.

    Polls from last month showed Manzullo up by double digits, but private polls show the race too close to call. The two congressmen have battled bitterly over who is more fiscally conservative, with Kinzinger saying Manzullo voted to raise the deficit 12 times in his career, while Manzullo counters about his votes to cut the government spending.

    IL-8 (R-Joe Walsh) (Chicago northwest suburbs: Schaumburg, Elgin)
    This is a totally redrawn district that now strongly favors Democrats. It is the Democrats' best chance to pick up a seat in Illinois, as incumbent freshman Republican Joe Walsh -- a Tea Party favorite -- is expected to lose in November to whomever Democrats end up electing in their primary.

    But the Democratic primary is shaping up to be a barn burner. It pits well known disabled Iraq veteran Tammy Duckworth against former Obama campaign adviser Raji Krishnamoorthi

    Krishnamoorthi, a Harvard-educated scientist, lost a close race for Illinois state treasurer in 2010. If Krishnamoorthi wins he would be the first Indian-born member of Congress, but he is up against formidable opponent in Duckworth. Now wheel-chair bound, Duckworth made national headlines when her Blackhawk helicopter was shot down over Iraq in 2004. She nearly won a congressional seat six years ago, and more recently served in the Obama administration in the Department of Veterans Affairs. Though Duckworth has much higher name recognition, and despite calls from David Axelrod to drop out, Krishnamoorthi has run a strong campaign and held his own in fundraising.  

    IL-2 (D-Jesse Jackson Jr.; South Side Chicago and suburbs)
    Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. is in a surprisingly close Democratic primary, trying to fend off former House member Debbie Halvorson.  Redistricting pushed a lot of Halverson's old district into the new 2nd congressional district, even though the district is still over 50% African American. 

    There is no love lost between Jackson and Halvorson: Halvorson accuses Jackson of being an ineffective member of Congress, and has repeatedly used a long proposed airport project to argue that Jackson hasn’t been able to deliver for his district. Jackson is backed by Nancy Pelosi and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. The two candidates have traded barbs over who is more loyal to President Obama. Jackson has run ads saying Halvorson voted against Obama 88 times; Halvorson denies that. Polls are close, but Jackson should survive this primary challenge. 

    IL-12 (D-Open; SW corner of the state; Carbondale and eastern suburbs of St. Louis)
    This is an open seat due to Rep. Jerry Costello's abrupt decision last fall to retire after holding the seat for 22 years.

    On the Democratic side, they think they have a strong candidate in former St. Clair County Schools Superintendent Brad Harriman, who has outgoing Rep. Costello's endorsement. 

    The action will be on the Republican side -- where former Belleville mayor Roger Cook is running against 29 year old millionaire businessman Jason Plummer. Plummer, who was the Republican nominee for Lt. Governor two years ago, is a conservative up and comer.

  • First Thoughts: Deja vu

    Tannen Maury / EPA

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks to customers while campaigning at Charley Parker's Diner in Springfield, Ill.

    It’s shaping up to be another déjà vu week in the GOP race… With Romney’s Puerto Rico win, here’s NBC’s new delegate count: Romney 443, Santorum 184, Gingrich 137, Paul 34… Romney’s gas attack on Obama… McCain calls GOP race “the nastiest I have ever seen” (and that’s saying something)… Haley Barbour says he voted for Newt… Team Obama rakes in $45 million in February for campaign/DNC… Obama’s energy swing this week… Dem memo/poll: Lugar “fighting for his political life” in Indiana… And DCCC tries to make more hay out of Ryan, Medicare.

    *** Deja vu: This is shaping up to be another déjà vu week in the GOP presidential race: Mitt Romney widens his delegate lead by winning all of Puerto Rico’s 20 delegates yesterday; Romney is poised to win Tuesday’s primary in Illinois, but it once again could be closer than all of Romney’s advantages (money, organization, front-runner status) suggest; and Rick Santorum continues to have a problem qualifying for a full slate of delegates (raising the question of whether Romney would still have a commanding lead if he didn’t face such a disorganized challenger). Campaigning in Illinois yesterday, Romney responded to his Puerto Rico win: "Those people who don't think Latinos will vote for a Republican need to take a look in Puerto Rico and see there that conservative principles and Latino voters go together -- and that Hispanic voters are going to vote for Republicans if we stand for something.” But a little caveat: Those Puerto Ricans who voted in yesterday’s GOP primary CAN’T participate in November’s general election.

    Caption: NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss Mitt Romney's widening delegate lead over his GOP rivals and team Obama's raking in $45 million-plus in donations for the campaign and DNC .

    *** NBC’s delegate count: After Romney’s victory in Puerto Rico yesterday, here’s NBC’s official delegate count: Romney 443, Santorum 184, Gingrich 137, Paul 34. (Note: This delegate count doesn’t reflect some caucus results, since those delegates haven’t been officially allocated yet and since the allocation will NOT be based on the straw votes that have taken place.) And get this fun fact: Romney has won 52 out of 54 possible delegates in all of the U.S. territories (Guam/Northern Mariana/U.S. Virgin Islands/America Samoa/Puerto Rico) that have participated in the GOP race -- and that represents 20 percent of his delegate lead over Santorum. Wow … just another reminder why organization matters.

    *** Romney gas attack: Also yesterday, Romney leveled a new charge at President Obama. "There's one promise he's kept, one promise he's kept. When he campaigned he said he wanted to raise the price of gasoline.” But NBC’s Garrett Haake reported that independent fact-checkers have found that charge to be false. In a Jan. 2008 interview with the San Francisco Chronicle editorial board, then-candidate Obama said his cap-and-trade plan would cause electricity costs to rise, but he did not reference gas prices. At a second event, Romney corrected himself. "[Obama’s] one promise that comes to mind that he kept was the one related to energy. His energy policies he said would cause energy prices to skyrocket. And when asked one time about gas prices going up so quickly he said he would prefer they just went up gradually. Well we’ve seen the results of his policies." But Romney is wrong here again too, Haake says. The "policies" he is technically referring to, which Obama said would cause electricity prices to skyrocket, was cap-and-trade, which was never implemented.

    *** McCain calls GOP race “the nastiest I have ever seen”: On “Meet the Press,” John McCain -- who has endorsed Romney -- summed up the conventional wisdom about the Republican primary race so far: It has hurt the GOP and Romney. “Mitt Romney will tell you, first of all, he's got to do a better job. He's working on doing a better job. He's got to focus more on the economy. He's been giving major speeches on the economy and jobs. And I think he is improving dramatically as a candidate,” McCain said. “But also, the proportional distribution of the delegates, any campaign before, we had winner take all. If it was winner take all, you would have seen those numbers significantly different. Also, the Super PACs have played a key role, unfortunately in my view, because most of them are negative ads. They've driven up the unfavorable of all of the candidates and made it much more difficult, frankly, to win the election in November.” He later added, “This is the nastiest [campaign] I have ever seen.” The fact that McCain -– who was the subject of a nasty attack in 2000 and who launched some tough attack ads of his own in ’08 -- is saying this means something

    *** Barbour says he voted for Newt: Here’s another gut punch for Romney: Former Mississippi Gov. -- and onetime potential presidential candidate -- Haley Barbour said he voted for Gingrich in last week’s primary, citing his friendship with Gingrich. We’ve noticed so many big-name conservatives continue to stay on the sidelines (Barbour/Daniels/Jeb/Ryan, etc.). And it makes us wonder: What are they waiting for? They are not still debating between Romney and Santorum are they? Or Gingrich? Are they so afraid that coming out for Romney now COULD look bad for them with conservatives four years from now? Could some of these folks really be so calculating about how “supporting Romney” could look in a primary TV ad four years from now that they are afraid of going out on this limb in 2012? Or are they actually holding back because they think it’s only 50-50 that Romney gets to 1144 by June 5?

    *** On the trail: All the activity is in Illinois and with just two candidates: Romney starts off his day in Springfield, gives an economic speech in Chicago and holds a town hall in Peoria … Santorum has rallies in Rockford, Moline and East Peoria.

    *** Team Obama rakes in $45 million-plus in February, up from last month: On President Obama's official Twitter account this morning, the campaign announced that it raised more than $45 million -- for the campaign and DNC -- in the month of February. It added that amount came from more than 348,000 donors (105,000 giving for the first time), and the average donation was $59. To put that $45 million February haul into perspective, Team Obama raised $29 million in January, including $11.9 million for the campaign (with the rest going to the DNC and the Obama Victory Fund). And in comparison, Romney has already released his February fundraising total -- $11.5 million (that's strictly campaign money). Note: We won't know until the campaign officially files with the Federal Election Commission (the deadline is tomorrow) what the actual campaign vs. DNC split is. In 2008, however, Obama raised a whopping $57 million for his campaign in February, although that haul came during his historic primary battle against Hillary Clinton. Bottom line: Obama’s money situation continues to be GOOD, but not GREAT (at least by the 2008 standard; just see this Washington Post piece).

    *** Obama’s energy swing: Given the heat on gas prices he’s taking from Romney (see above) and the Republican Party, Obama is making an energy-related swing this week “to promote and defend his energy policies -- including his approach to the Keystone XL pipeline,” USA Today writes. “Obama travels Wednesday and Thursday for energy events in Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio, as well as Cushing, Oklahoma; Cushing is the starting point for the southern half of the Keystone pipeline. That segment ‘will transport oil from Cushing to the Gulf of Mexico, which will help address the bottleneck of oil that has resulted in large part from increased domestic oil production in the Midwest,’ said a White House statement.” Per NBC’s Shawna Thomas, this continues a pattern of Obama’s official outside-D.C. events focusing mostly on energy since late February. Actions speak louder than words, and it’s clear the Obama White House is worried, BIG TIME, about the politics of the energy and gas price issue.

    *** Lugar “fighting for his political life” in Indiana: The pollster for Joe Donnelly (D), who is running for the U.S. Senate in Indiana, has released a survey showing that incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar leads his GOP primary opponent Richard Mourdock by just six points, 45 percent to 39 percent. From the pollster’s memo: “After more than 30 years as Indiana’s senator, Richard Lugar is fighting for his political life. Despite spending millions, Lugar continues to lose ground in the Republican primary and faces the very real possibility that on May 8, he will be out of a job.” But it’s also striking that the memo doesn’t reveal any of Donnelly’s poll numbers against either Lugar or Donnelly.

    *** DCCC tries to make hay out of Ryan, Medicare: With House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan releasing his new budget this week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says it’s launching “a new paid and grass-roots campaign called “Medicare March” in 41 Republican districts to hold them accountable for the new GOP budget that chooses “Millionaires over Medicare.” More from the DCCC: “The first phase of the DCCC’s campaign will hold these targeted Republicans accountable with automated phone calls that will patch voters through to their Member of Congress' office so they can urge them to vote against the new Republican budget that ends the Medicare guarantee for seniors, while protecting tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy.” 

    Countdown to Illinois primary: 1 day
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    Countdown to Election Day: 232 days

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  • Programming notes

    *** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Latest on the charges against the Afghanistan shooter with NBC’s John Yang live from Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas… The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza and USA Today’s Susan Page on the many incumbent senators facing tough re-election fights in 2012… A deep dive into what 1964’s Republican primary means for today’s battle… More 2012 news with National Journal’s Major Garrett, The Atlantic’s Molly Ball and msnbc’s Robert Traynham.

    *** Monday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Richard Lui (filling in for Chris Jansing) interviews Illinois GOP Chair Pat Brady, the Washington Post’s Nia Malika Henderson, the Chicago Tribune’s Clarence Page; former Planned Parenthood President Gloria Feldt, Roll Call’s Shira Toeplitz, and former presidential candidate Wes Clark.

    *** Monday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Santorum strategist John Brabender, GOP strategist Chip Saltsman, Jim Warren, and former Rep. Patrick Murphy.

    *** Monday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Rolling Stone editor Eric Bates, NBCLatino.com’s Alicia Menendez, Brown University’s Wendy Schiller, MSNBC Contributor Jimmy Williams, Santorum spokeswoman Alice Stewart, Columbia University’s Dorian Warren, and Lt. Col. Anthony Shaffer, author of “Operation Dark Heart”

    *** Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, NBC’s John Yang, the New York Times’ Elizabeth Bumiller, Nada Bakri (Anthony Shadid’s widow), Paul Conroy, (photog working with Marie Colvin when she was killed in Syria), Eva Longoria (actress and Obama campaign co-chair), and Melanie Bloom (the widow of the late NBC correspondent David Bloom).

    *** Monday’s “News Nations with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Jon Soltz from Votevets.org, The Hill’s AB Stoddard, the Chicago Sun Time’s Lynn Sweet, Michael Smerconish, and Steve Deace.

  • 2012: Romney wins Puerto Rico

    “Mitt Romney may lead in delegates and Rick Santorum might have momentum, but neither of the two leading Republican presidential candidates is having an easy time exciting even his own voters, the” AP writes.

    PAUL: Jackie Kucinich on Paul’s campaign: “Rep. Ron Paul's presidential campaign strategy of targeting caucus states appears to have fallen flat — he is still without a win — and with only one caucus state remaining, it might appear time for him to withdraw.”

    More: “But that is not how the Paul campaign rolls. Instead, the campaign is trying to pick up stray delegates in states that have already held caucuses… Although Paul failed to win caucuses in states including Colorado, Iowa, Washington and Alaska, the process of awarding delegates in those states is not yet complete, leaving the door open for the Paul campaign… The Paul campaign is targeting the local meetings held in counties around the county that are part of the process of choosing national convention delegates, hoping to assure selection of Paul allies.”

    ROMNEY: Romney won all 20 of Puerto Rico’s delegates at stake Sunday night (with 83% reporting, he was up 83%-8% over Santorum). And now, 20 percent of Mitt Romney’s delegate lead has come from territories. He has cleaned up in the territories, getting a net 52 delegates out of Guam (9-0), the Northern Mariana Islands (9-0), the U.S. Virgin Islands (7-2), American Samoa (9-0), and Puerto Rico (20-0). In the NBC News count, Romney has a 259-delegate lead, 443-184 over Santorum.

    As Reuters wrote Friday: “In a carefully planned ‘island strategy,’ Romney has blunted the effect of a surge by main rival Rick Santorum and stayed way ahead in the months-long, state-by-state fight to win the 1,144 delegates that will seal the Republican nomination.”

    “Mitt Romney's increasingly confident campaign is intensifying calls -- publicly and privately -- for his Republican opponents to concede defeat in the presidential nomination battle, even before Illinois voters have their say Tuesday in the campaign's next big contest,” the AP writes.

    Ann Romney took up that call last night in Illinois after her husband was declared the winner in Puerto Rico: "We need to send a message that it's time to coalesce,” she said, standing next to her husband. “It's time to get behind one candidate and get the job done so we can move on to the next challenge, bringing us one step closer to defeating Barack Obama."

    Romney gets the bottom corner of the front page of one of the Puerto Rico tabloids, Primera Hora. And he’s in the skybox of El Nuevo Dia.

    Romney has lots of advantages in Illinois, but, the Boston Globe writes, “with increasing worry that Rick Santorum could score another upset, the former Massachusetts governor has rejiggered his schedule to spend much of the next four days campaigning in Illinois.”

    “It is one of Mitt Romney’s most striking anecdotes. The US Navy, he says, has fewer ships today than in 1917, and the US Air Force is smaller than it was in 1947. Notwithstanding that today’s fleets are far beyond the capability of those from yesteryear, Romney says it is evidence that America’s military dominance is at risk,” the Boston Globe writes. “Romney’s solution is one of the most far-ranging, expensive, and perhaps least understood of his campaign. He has vowed to commit at least 4 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product - $4 out of every $100 in the nation’s economy - to ‘core’ defense spending, not including many war expenses.”

    And: “Put another way, that means Romney proposes spending 61 percent more than Obama at the end of a decade-long cycle, according to the libertarian Cato Institute. Enacting such an increase at the same time that Romney wants to slash taxes and balance the budget could cost trillions of dollars and require huge cuts in domestic programs. As Romney’s website puts it matter-of-factly, ‘This will not be a cost-free process.’”

    (Here’s a great graphic illustrating the huge increase in spending in a Romney budget.)

    The AP’s Hunt looks at Santorum court evangelicals: “Nearly a hundred pastors from all over Louisiana and from as far away as Texas and Colorado accepted Family Research Council President Tony Perkins’ invitation to hear a personal pitch Sunday from the former Pennsylvania senator, who met with them in a private briefing before he addressed the more than 1,400 faithful who crowded into the sanctuary at Greenwell Springs Baptist Church.”

    SANTORUM: Santorum saying that Puerto Rico had to speak English as its primary language hurt him. In a defensive press release following the results, Santorum spokesman Hogan Gidley said, "Mitt Romney says he supports English as the official language of America while on the mainland, but then says Puerto Ricans don't have to learn English while he's on Puerto Rico.”

    He also said this: “Santorum, Romney's closest challenger, had an unfortunate slip of the lip when he called Puerto Rico a ‘Spanish-speaking country’ just as voters in the U.S. territory were going to the polls in the GOP primary,” the New York Daily News writes.

    After defending his decision to back Sen. Arlen Specter across the country in a multitude of states, Santorum Sunday called his support for him a “mistake” on ABC’s This Week.

    “Rick Santorum is declaring a war… on porn,” the New York Daily News writes. “The Republican presidential candidate and staunch social conservative wants to ban hard-core pornography. He calls it ‘toxic to marriages and relationships’ in a new statement posted on his official website. ‘America is suffering a pandemic of harm from pornography,’ the former Pennsylvania senator writes. ‘It contributes to misogyny and violence against women. It is a contributing factor to prostitution and sex trafficking.’ He demands a crackdown on the distribution of hardcore pornography on the Internet, in addition to material on cable/satellite TV, hotel/motel TV, retail shops and through the mail.”

    Santorum did appear to win in Missouri (again).

  • More 2012: Lugar vs. Mourdock is close, per Dem poll

    INDIANA: A Democratic poll shows Lugar up 45%-39% in the primary over state Treasurer Richard Mourdock.

    MASSACHUSETTS: It was a tough go for Elizabeth Warren on St. Patrick’s Day, as Scott Brown received what the Boston Globe called “native-son status.” “Elizabeth Warren is a Democrat running for US Senate in Massachusetts, but the challenge she will face this election year was typified in the native-son greeting given to Scott Brown as the Republican incumbent was embraced at this year’s South Boston St. Patrick’s Day political roast,” the Globe writes. “Brown sat center stage, next to the podium, while Warren sat a row behind and outside the range of the head-on television shot. His eldest daughter, Ayla, was made part of the program, singing ‘God Bless America’ even before Warren was given a chance to speak. Brown also got to speak at the top of the program, when the audience is presumably largest, while Warren got to speak toward the end, a time when many Southie residents head out to their annual parade down Broadway.”

    NEW JESREY: “A new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll in New Jersey finds Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) ahead by double digits over Joe Kyrillos (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 33%,” Political Wire writes.

    NEW YORK: “Queens Democrats have chosen state Assemblywoman Grace Meng of Queens to run for retiring Congressman Gary Ackerman’s seat, according to two sources close to the party,” the New York Daily News reports. “Potential candidates met with party elders Sunday to make their pitch to run in the redrawn 6th Congressional District, which would be more than 37% Asian.”

  • Romney says Obama 'kept promise' to raise the price of gas

     

    MOLINE, Ill. – Mitt Romney doubled down on his critique of President Barack Obama’s energy policy at a campaign stop in western Illinois on Sunday, accusing the president of keeping a campaign promise to raise gas prices if elected. 

    "There's one promise he's kept. One promise he's kept. When he campaigned he said he wanted to raise the price of gasoline. He said that under him, energy costs would skyrocket. And then he brought in a trio of people to help him implement those policies," Romney said at a pancake breakfast here.


    An independent fact check by the Washington Post awarded three Pinocchios – the newspaper’s measure, on a scale of one to five, that measures accuracy – to a similar claim by a Louisiana congressman that the president "got his wish" with $4-per-gallon-gasoline. The Romney campaign did not respond to a request to clarify when Obama made such a claim.

    In a January 2008 interview with the San Francisco Chronicle editorial board, then-candidate Obama said his cap-and-trade plan would cause electricity costs to rise, but he did not reference gas prices.

    "Under my plan of a cap-and-trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket," Obama told the Chronicle. "Coal-powered plants, you know, natural gas, you name it, whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers."

    www.BattleBornPAC.com

    In this 2008 interview with the San Francisco editorial board, then candidate Obama said his cap-and-trade plan would result in higher electricity rates. He did not, however, mention gas prices.

     

     This morning on Face the Nation, the Obama campaign's chief strategist David Axelrod dismissed allegations that the president wanted higher gas prices as "nonsense" and accused Romney of pandering with his recent focus on gas prices as a stump-speech topic.

    In recent days, Romney has taken aim not only at President Obama, but has also started to call for the resignation or dismissal of the so-called "gas hike trio" – Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, Energy Secretary Steven Chu and EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson – for their roles in holding back domestic energy production.

    "This trio has worked very hard to implement the president's view of raising the cost of energy. Now the other night, (Obama) decided to change course," Romney said. "This gas hike trio has got to resign or get fired. We've got to get them out and get people in who will bring down the cost of gasoline."

    As the price of gasoline has risen in the last few weeks, so too has the rhetoric of gas prices, perhaps the ultimate kitchen-table economic issue.

    Newt Gingrich has been campaigning on a promise to restore $2.50 gasoline, and Romney has pledged regularly to open up more federal land for drilling. Rick Santorum yesterday lumped President Obama and Romney together on the issue, saying their energy policies were the same. 

    Today, Romney looked to connect with his audience over the issue, describing his conversations with everyday folks who were struggling with higher gas prices – now $3.83 per gallon on average, according to AAA, the automobile association.

    "I remember the teacher who had been out of work and she said that she could get opportunities to teach on a temporary basis, but when she considers the cost of gasoline to get to the job and back, it doesn’t make sense to go off unemployment,” Romney said. “You’ve got moms that are driving their kids to school and practice after school and other appointments and wonder how they can afford putting gasoline in the car, at the same time putting food on the table night after night. The American people are struggling.”

  • Rick Santorum: If I win the Illinois primary, I win the nomination

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum waves as he leaves after speaking to supporters at Westminster Christian Academy Saturday, March 17, 2012, in Town and Country, Mo.

    EFFINGHAM, Ill. -- Rick Santorum on Saturday guaranteed that a win in the Illinois primary will result in his nomination as the Republican presidential nominee.

    "This is a primary, and turnout is everything. You do your job, you do your job, then this is the pledge," Santorum said. "If we're able to come out of Illinois with a huge or surprise win, I guarantee you, I guarantee you that we will win this nomination."


    Illinois has largely been predicted to favor Mitt Romney for Tuesday's primary. The vote is expected to be driven by Chicago and its surrounding suburbs, pegged as unfavorable territory for the former Pennsylvania senator's brand of conservatism. But in areas like Effingham, hours south of the Windy City, Santorum hopes to fire up a Republican base that is often overshadowed by its Democratic counterparts to the north.

    "You know you don't get a chance to out-vote your friends up in the Chicago-land area very often, but this is a primary and turnout is everything," he said, standing in a warehouse of a local business specializing in kitchen equipment.

    While stumping in the Land of Lincoln, Santorum said he feels like he's already running in the general election.

    “People ask me why I’m the best candidate to run against Barack Obama," said Santorum. "It’s because I feel like, in many respects, I am running against Barack Obama here in this primary because Mitt Romney has the same positions as Barack Obama in this primary.”

    The health care bill that Romney signed as governor of Massachusetts is the issue Santorum has been hammering him on most frequently.

    Santorum says the legislation laid the groundwork for the health care bill Obama signed in 2010, and therefore a Romney nomination would prohibit him from successfully running on a platform of repealing it.

    Energy is another issue Santorum claims his Republican rival shares with Obama.  “Why, with sky rocketing gas prices, would we nominate someone who had the same position as President Obama with respect to fossil fuels?" he asked.

    Santorum began his day stumping in neighboring Missouri, a state that held a non-binding primary that he won last month, but today is holding caucuses.  During a visit to a caucus site in Hazelwood, Santorum claimed dominance: "If you look at the Midwest, all of the Midwest is one color. It’s our color. We’ve won every state in the Midwest."

    That statement dismisses Ohio and Michigan, two states Romney won, as part of the Midwest. Asked about it later in the day, Santorum said, "Well, I meant the heartland."

    But even in the Show Me State, it was clear how important the primary happening happening across the Mississippi River will be to the Santorum campaign.  “When you leave here, go home, sign up on our website, start calling folks in Illinois. Because we’ve got a big election coming up in a couple days in Illinois," he pleaded. "Please help us out there. If you’ve got friends over there, make sure they get out and help us out."

    And even with an aggressive campaign schedule in two states today, the Italian American still found time to show his St. Patrick's Day spirit.  On the stump he wore a green boutineer and his campaign manager tweeted out a picture of him enjoying a Guinness at an Irish pub between stops.

    "I usually get there in the morning so I felt a little bad I didn’t get there until lunch time," he said of his March 17 traditional pilgrimage to the pub.

    Update: In response to Santorum's comments on Saturday, Romney campaign spokesperson Ryan Williams had this to say:

    "Senator Santorum is an economic lightweight who has precisely zero job creating experience. He ought to scare every conservative when it comes to his economic record. We won't get the economy going again by replacing one senator with no job creating experience with another with no job creating experience."

     

  • Romney campaigns in Puerto Rican style, says he supports statehood if they want it

     

    SAN JUAN -- In Puerto Rico on Friday the Romney campaign found that politics here comes in a distinctly local flavor. Gone were the rusty factories, introductions to campaign theme song "Born Free," and even the "thanks you guys" greetings.

    In their place instead were seaside vistas, a 12-piece Latin band and an electronic remix of "Let's Get Ready to Rumble" as Mitt Romney took the stage at his final event Friday, a multi-organizational rally outside the capital, with an energetic crowd gathered before a stage built just above a sea wall.


    "Politics in Puerto Rico is spoken with energy and passion," Romney observed midway through his brief remarks here. "Thank you."

    At a press conference earlier in the day on an airport tarmac, Romney took questions mostly from the local press, addressing everything from his opposition to the Supreme Court appointment of Sonia Sotomayor -- herself of Puerto Rican descent -- to his stance on whether the adoption of English as the island's sole official language should be a prerequisite for statehood (it should not be, he said.)

    On the subject of statehood, Romney was pressed several times, and stuck to his message, saying that if a majority of Puerto Ricans voted to become the 51st state, he as president would fight to make that effort a reality in Washington.

    "My view is that the people of Puerto Rico should have, as they will have, the opportunity to make their own wishes felt. If a majority of Puerto Ricans wish to become a state then I will support that effort in Washington and will help lead that effort in Washington.

    The statehood issue reared again in Romney's remarks Friday night, with chants of "statehood now" breaking out during his speech.

    While there is little reliable polling here, Romney is favored by many observers to carry the territory's primary Sunday. He has the endorsement of the state's popular governor, Luis Fortuno, and began running Spanish-language radio ads here earlier this week.

    Friday night, Fortuno praised Romney for promising to include Puerto Rico in any domestic economic-growth plan. Friday morning, Fortuno's wife, Luce Vela Fortuno, predicted that Romney would carry all 20 of the island's 20 Republican delegates once the votes were counted.

    "I'm sure that Mitt Romney will win the primary here in Puerto Rico and that he will take the 20 delegates here," Luce Vela Fortuno told reporters during a joint appearance with Ann Romney where Gov. Fortuno passed out checks to senior citizens as part of a tax-rebate program.

    For her part, Ann Romney seemed to be enjoying the island tempo, and the more hands-on application of politics here in Puerto Rico, joking with the press about a "lot of hugging and kissing" at a private dinner she attended here. Friday night, after sitting on stage for some 90 minutes of speeches and music, she boiled down her message to the people of the "Island of Enchantment" thusly: "You show us how to party!"

  • Santorum says he would enforce US obscenity laws that Obama ignores

     

    ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL -- Rick Santorum accused President Barack Obama of not enforcing the country's obscenity laws and said Friday that as chief executive he would crack down on illegal pornography.

    Santorum found himself answering pornography questions during a stop at an Italian restaurant here after the discovery of a statement posted in his campaign website in which he asserts that "America is suffering a pandemic of harm from pornography." Recent reporting has shed light on the letter in which the former Pennsylvania senator vowed to "vigorously enforce" all the country's obscenity laws, though he said the statement was posted three weeks ago.


    "We actually respond to questions that we get into our campaign when they say 'What are you going to do about these issues?' And when we respond we post them up on our website.  And the response is, ‘we'll enforce the law,’" said Santorum.

    "I don’t know what the hubbub about that is," he said.  "We have a president who is not enforcing the law, and we will."

    The candidate best known for espousing family values argues on his website that pornography causes changes in the brain to both children and adults, and contributes to violence against women, prostitution and sex trafficking.

    "The Obama administration has turned a blind eye to those who wish to preserve our culture from the scourge of pornography," he wrote.

    Santorum's campaign has been sidetracked throughout the primary by eyebrow raising statements on social issues that many Republican voters feel pale in comparison to the importance of the economy.  In Illinois, a state where polls show Santorum mounting a close challenge to Mitt Romney, he again found himself answering questions about a social issue that is unlikely to play a role in the 2012 election.

    The other problem for the candidate running the most serious challenge to Romney is the fact that again he is not eligible for all the delegates up for grabs in Illinois during Tuesday's primary.

    Santorum only filed for 44 of the 54 at stake.  It is the same issue his campaign had in Ohio where they went into Super Tuesday knowing they could not win all the Buckeye State's delegates.

    Santorum today said his ineligibility for a handful of delegates can be attributed to the grassroots, underdog nature of his campaign.

    Months ago, when it was time to file to get on the ballot in many states, Santorum maintained, "We didn’t have a big campaign, a big superstructure, we didn’t have big offices in Boston," he said, a shot at Romney, whose campaign headquarters are in the Massachusetts capital. "We didn’t have millions of dollars to organize this, we had grassroots people."

    The GOP hopeful has a tall task ahead of him in the Land of Lincoln, a state where he's being considerably outspent and he cannot rely on a strongly conservative base of voters like the ones who put him over the top in Mississippi and Alabama.

    "They like the guy who is scrappy," Santorum said of Republican primary voters. "They like the guy who is trying to overcome the machine. Folks here in Chicago know all about the machine and what it means to fight that machine. It's hard but it's possible."

  • Santorum: English needn't be condition for Puerto Rican statehood

    SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO -- Presidential hopeful Rick Santorum said today Puerto Rico would not have to make English its official language in order to gain statehood, but maintained that the island territory would need to be bilingual.

    Santorum drew fire on what was largely meant to be a goodwill trip to Puerto Rico for comments he made to a San Juan newspaper on Wednesday suggesting the U.S. territory needed to make English its official language before it could become the 51st state.  But speaking to reporters after here after visiting a local school, the former Pennsylvania senator said he simply called on the island to learn English.

    "What I said is English has to be learned as a language and this has to be a country where English is widely spoken and used yes," Santorum said.

    However Santorum did say he believes English needs to be taught and that Puerto Rican schools would need to teach the language as a condition of statehood.

    "They need to be taught English. That's how you integrate fully into American life.  Its the best opportunity for you to be economically successful is to speak English," he said. "One of the important things about Puerto Rico is to be able to be a bridge between the mainland and central and south america, well bridge requires that you be able to speak both languages."

    The island was Santorum's first campaign stop since two primary wins in Mississippi and Alabama.  It's a place that is largely seen to favor chief rival Mitt Romney, who has won the endorsement of Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño.  But Santorum's trip here is a sign he is hopeful he can earn some of the 23 delegates up for grabs during Sunday's primary.

    The candidate visited the governor's mansion for a photo opportunity with Fortuño, his only appearance with the Puerto Rican leader.

    Instead, it was the Secretary of Recreation of Sports Department Henry Neumann that was by his side during the two-day visit.

    During a press conference on the steps of the governor's mansion, Santorum attempted to downplay the importance of Fortuño's endorsement of the former Massachusetts governor.  "The establishment across America has lined up behind Gov. Romeny very early on and I certainly respect that," he said. "He looked like the odds on favorite at the beginning of the campaign. We tend to do that as Republicans -- sort of take the person next in line."

    The question the GOP hopeful most commonly faced was regarding his feelings towards Puerto Rican statehood.  He has said he favors allowing the island to decide for itself whether or not to abandon their territory status.  But, there would need to be a resounding consensus, not simply a majority plus one, Santorum said.

    Throughout his campaign stops here, the candidate emphasized the work he did with Puerto Rico during his time in Congress.  It is the reason he took  exception to local reports characterizing his remarks about a bilingual Puerto Rico as a dig against those living on the island.

    "This is my 3rd trip to Puerto Rico. We've worked with the people of Puerto Rico, governors of the past. We've done things to try to help benefit Puerto Rico. For someone to misrepresent and completely fabricate something that I never said or even intimated is very disappointing," he said.

    The latest candidate to surge in Republican nominating contest did not draw overwhelming crowds to his campaign stops, until his last event -- a parade throughout the streets of Old San Juan.  Walking behind a marching band and an emcee shouting his name, Santorum greeted surprised Puerto Ricans during the march that shut down blocks of the old city.

    He has not set an expectations for how he'll finish here on Sunday, predicting only that he'll earn "as many delegates as we can get."

    Santorum returns to the continental United State tomorrow, spending the remainder of the week stumping in Missouri, Illinois and Louisiana.

  • 2012 is no GOP version of Clinton-Obama primary

     

    If there's been one familiar refrain among Republicans during this presidential primary, it's been that the hard-fought battle between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and other contenders hasn't hurt the party – arguably, it's even strengthened it.

    "Don't always assume that a primary fight is a bad thing," Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Mar. 7 on CNN. "In fact, I think it's the opposite. I think it's going to be great for our party."

    And frequently, as a point of reference, Republicans point to the long – and, at times, bitter – intra-party battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 as evidence that an extended race to the nomination isn’t necessarily a hindrance to winning the White House.

    But there are important differences between the two cycles. Some of them might serve as a warning sign for the GOP, such as less money and a more damaged brand. And some might give the party encouragement, like more enthusiasm among Republicans. 

    Of course, an important caveat: In some ways, it’s difficult to compare 2008 (a race without an incumbent and with two history-making primary candidates) with 2012 (when there’s a sitting president in the Oval Office).

    Bank accounts
    At this point in the Democratic primary in 2008, Obama and Clinton had each heavily outraised Republicans’ fundraising haul through the first couple of months of 2012.

    In February of 2008, just as the Democratic campaign had appeared to shift into a two-person race, the Obama campaign raised $55 million for the month, and had $39 million in the bank going into March. Clinton raised $35 million over the same time period, and had $29 million in cash on hand. (It’s worth noting, though, that much of Clinton’s money was reserved for the general election, and she couldn’t use in the primary season.)

    Compare that to the money raised by Santorum and Romney over February, according to their own campaigns’ estimates (official numbers have not yet been filed with the Federal Election Commission). Romney raised $11.5 million in February and Santorum raised about $9 million. Romney had just $7.3 million in the bank at the end of the month, though, suggesting that his campaign is spending at a rate that could threaten to bleed him dry by November, especially if the primary continues for a while.

    A discrepancy would suggest some diminished enthusiasm for the Republican candidates this cycle, at least at first glance.

    But there are some important things to keep in mind: First, overall fundraising is down in 2012 versus 2008, in part due to the impact of a deep recession that onset after the 2008 primary.

    More Republican money has also flowed to super PACs that support the various GOP candidates. These groups didn’t exist in the last Democratic primary, and one Romney super PAC alone, Restore Our Future, has already spent over $30 million this primary season.

    The brand
    Perhaps the most illuminating figures on the impact of the Republican primary campaign comes from a series of national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls and the exit polling conducted of voters in key battleground state primaries.

    By March of 2008, both Obama and Clinton enjoyed net-positive favorability ratings among the public at large (Obama: 51 positive, 28 negative; Clinton: 45 positive, 43 negative according to the March 2008 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll).

    Romney and Santorum haven’t fared as well with the general public, according to this month’s numbers, also taken from the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Romney has a 28 percent positive rating among U.S. adults, and a 39 percent negative rating. Santorum has a 26 percent positive rating, and a 39 percent negative rating. They each perform much better with Republican primary voters.

    And in terms of the impact on each party’s brand, the Democratic Party had a 45 percent positive rating among registered voters in March of 2008, and a 35 percent negative rating. Four years later, the Republican Party has a 32 percent positive rating, and a 43 percent negative rating.

    But the GOP’s ratings represent a recovery of sorts from the party’s depths in mid-2010, when the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from that year had the Republican Party with just a 24 percent positive rating, and a 46 percent negative rating.

    Republicans are also still dealing with the fallout from an unpopular two-term president in George W. Bush, who preceded Obama. The wars Bush had started are still winding down, and Obama still warns of a return to the policies of the years that preceded him, attacking Bush by implication.

    The Bush years also left Republicans with a more fractious coalition with emerging fault lines of social issues and foreign and economic policy. Given those divisions, it might be tougher for any of these candidates to capture a broader swath of the electorate.

    Enthusiasm, curbed
    The figures from both primaries suggest that Democrats were happier with their choice of candidates than Republicans have been this cycle.

    Fifty-seven percent of Republicans who voted in the Mar. 6 Ohio primary said in exit polls that they would be satisfied with Romney as the eventual nominee.

    By comparison, 73 percent of Democrats who voted in the Ohio primary four years ago said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 66 percent of Democrats said the same of Obama that same cycle.

    Nationally, 45 percent of Republican primary voters said in the March NBC/WSJ poll that they would support Romney with enthusiasm, and 42 percent said they would support Santorum with enthusiasm.

    Four years ago, in the same national poll, 60 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton with enthusiasm, and 52 percent expressed enthusiastic support for Obama.

    But in 2008, Democrats weren’t being measured against an incumbent president like Republicans are this cycle. The differences between the candidates were also more stylistic in 2008 than ideological, especially compared to the 2012 race in which Republicans do battle over the extent of their conservatism.

    But the Democratic primary four years ago also featured two political heavyweights in Obama and Clinton, each of whom were poised to make history simply by virtue of their nomination. Obama would become the first African-American presidential nominee, and later, the nation’s first black president. Clinton would have been the first woman to top a ticket, and the first woman president if she were elected.

    And Republicans can take solace in the fact that Obama is now their greatest unifier. While there might not be tremendous enthusiasm for either of the two major remaining Republican candidates, there’s a great deal of interest within the GOP about beating Obama.

    A mid-February Gallup poll found that Republicans, by an 8-point margin, were more likely to say that they were enthusiastic about voting this fall compared to Democrats. And among certain key portions of Obama’s 2008 coalition, especially younger and nonwhite voters, enthusiasm was down.

    But a mid-March poll, also by Gallup, found that enthusiasm for Romney and Santorum within the GOP is down from 2008; Republicans are motivated this time by voting against Obama.

    And the numbers in the January NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggest that while Santorum and Romney might not generate tremendous enthusiasm, they’re at least acceptable. Seventy-five percent of Republican primary voters said they would be “comfortable” with Romney as the nominee, and 65 percent said the same for Santorum.

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