*** UPDATED AT 1:45 PM ET WITH COMMENT FROM RUBIO SPOKESMAN AND CORRECTS TIMELINE***

Quick: What religion is the son of Cuban exiles?

Answer: Roman Catholic, right? Right.

And also Mormon?

That’s right, Marco Rubio, the conservative senator on everyone’s short list for vice president, was a member of the LDS Church in his youth, BuzzFeed reports.

Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

When Rubio's family moved to a suburb of Las Vegas, many in his immediate family converted.

When Rubio's family moved to a suburb of Las Vegas, near cousins who were Mormon, many in his immediate family (but not his father) converted, including Marco. Rubio was baptized in the church when he was 8 and enthusiastically participated in the religion, according to the report.

Rubio spokesman Alex Conant tells First Read BuzzFeed is incorrect that "Rubio's steadfast participation in the Mormon church continued for several years—until his parents decided to move them to Miami." (*** UPDATE *** BuzzFeed has clarified: "The cousins said Rubio's participation in the Mormon church continued for several years, until his parents decided to move them to Miami—though Conant said the family left the church before leaving Nevada.")

In fact, Conant said, "He left the church when he was 11 or 12, he received his first communion in 1984 when he was 13, and they didn’t move back to Miami until the next year, in 1985."

BuzzFeed’s McKay Coppins writes:

“The revelation adds a new dimension to Rubio's already-nuanced religious history—and could complicate his political future at a time when many Republicans see him as the odds-on favorite for the 2012 vice presidential nod. Vice presidential candidates are traditionally chosen to provide ethnic and religious balance to a ticket. Mitt Romney's Mormonism and Rubio's Catholic faith would already mean the first two members of minority traditions on a Republican ticket in American history. Rubio's Mormon roots could further complicate that calculation.”

NBC Latino reports that a former Rubio campaign staffer said this should have no bearing on whether the Florida senator's picked as VP and that he is a "devout Catholic":

“It should not affect it at all, that is totally unfair,” says Bertica Cabrera Morris, who ran Senator Rubio’s campaign in Central Florida and is a Senior Advisor to the Romney campaign, as well as a member of Romney’s Hispanic Steering Committee.

“Marco is a devout Catholic,” Cabrera Morris adds. “The first thing he did when he was confirmed as a Senator was have a Mass,” she adds. “His whole life is about faith.”

And Cabrera-Morris said:

"His family attended the church for a few years.  He went with his family.”

One of the cousins described Marco to BuzzFeed, though, as being “totally into it.”

“Over the years, he and his cousins frequented LDS youth groups, attended church most Sundays—often walking to the chapel because his mother didn't know how to drive—and latched on to the mainstream Mormon culture that was easily accessible in LDS-heavy Nevada.

“For example, when they were in elementary school, Rubio formed a singing group with Michelle and his sister that would put on performances for extended family. Their inspiration? The Osmonds, of course.”

But all that changed when the family was going to move to Miami.

“Rubio was just reaching high school age when his family relocated, and [cousin] Mo [Denis] speculates that their transition to an area with fewer Mormons likely took its toll.”

A Rubio spokesmantold BuzzFeed “that Rubio never requested to have his name removed from the LDS Church's records, which means officially, the church is likely still counting him as a member.”

And:

“While Rubio continues to identify as a Conservative Roman Catholic, he frequently attends a non-denominational Baptist church with his family in Florida. As his notoriety increases, both communities have sought to lay claim to the rising political star, with little resistance from Rubio himself. In fact, the politician has cooperated for profiles in both the Catholic Advocate, and the Evangelical World Magazine—granting pitch-perfect interviews to each.”

NBC Latino also talked to Ignacio García, a professor at Brigham Young University and a Latino Mormon. García said, NBC Latino writes, "it is not surprising that the Rubio family attended a Mormon church when they lived in Nevada."

"Unless you are hiding under a rock,” García said, “a Latino family in Nevada would have been approached by Mormons, who are welcoming to Latinos, especially immigrants.”

In fact, LDS Church leaders have told NBC News that Latinos are a growth area for the church and are more progressive on immigration policy than on other church policies, like abortion, for example.

So far during this Republican presidential primary season, discussion of George W. Bush and his policies has been almost non-existent.

But at last night's GOP debate, He Who Must Not Be Named -- Bush -- was named by the candidates or moderator nine times.

And his presence over the debate was even bigger: Almost every heated exchange invoked, one way or another, policies, endorsements, or legislation from the Bush era.

No Child Left Behind. That infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." TARP. The 2001 airline bailout. The 2002 steel bailout. Even the 2004 Specter-vs.-Toomey primary.

With Mitt Romney highlighting and criticizing Rick Santorum's Senate record, perhaps it was inevitable that votes in the Bush era would receive a more thorough examination last night than in previous debates.

Still, all of last night's criticism of policies and endorsements from 2001 through 2008 -- some of which weren't all that controversial at the time -- reflects how much more conservative the Republican Party has become since the man who billed himself as the "compassionate conservative" sat in the Oval Office.

Perhaps the clearest example was Bush's signature education policy, No Child Left Behind.

Early in the debate, Romney charged Santorum for voting "to expand the Department of Education."

The former Pennsylvania senator replied, "I had some votes -- look, I think we all have had votes that I wish I wouldn't have voted to -- No Child Left Behind. You're right, it led to education spending. That's why I've said that we need to cut and eliminate No Child Left Behind."

Later, Santorum said he voted for No Child Left Behind because he was taking "one for the team" -- that is, the Bush White House.

"I have to admit I voted for that; it was against the principles I believed in. But, you know, when you're part of the team, sometimes you take one for the team for the leader, and I made a mistake."

Santorum also took "one for the team" when he endorsed Arlen Specter in his 2004 primary fight against Pat Toomey -- a subject that Romney also raised at last night's debate. In fact, it may have well been Romney's most effective dig at Santorum.

"The reason we have 'Obamacare' -- the reason we have 'Obamacare' is because the senator you supported over Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter, the pro-choice senator of Pennsylvania that you supported and endorsed in a race over Pat Toomey, he voted for 'Obamacare.'"

What was left unsaid in that exchange: The Bush White House asked Santorum to endorse Specter in that race, because it feared that a Toomey win would give Democrats a chance to win that Pennsylvania Senate seat in a presidential year (when John Kerry ultimately carried the state).

Also in the debate, Romney whacked Santorum for voting for the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere," which was tucked into legislation Bush signed into law in 2005.

"You voted for the "Bridge to Nowhere," Romney said. "I think these earmarks -- we've had it with them... The earmark process is broken."

But Santorum countered with an earmark that Romney sought for the Olympics.

"He's out there on television ads now unfortunately attacking me for saying that I'm this great earmarker, when he not only asked for earmarks for the Salt Lake Olympics, in the order of tens of millions of dollars," Santorum said of Romney.

That legislation in question? It became law when Bush was president in 2001.

And Santorum used another piece of legislation that became law during Bush's presidency -- the TARP bank bailout -- against Romney.

"[Romney] supported the folks on Wall Street and bailed out Wall Street."

Add up all of these examples, and last night's debate was the first time when George W. Bush's record -- directly or indirectly -- was criticized as much as Barack Obama's.

Five days before Michigan's GOP presidential primary, the Obama campaign is up with a new TV ad (the buy size TBD) in the state touting the auto industry's recovery -- and criticizing the GOP candidates (particuarly Mitt Romney) for opposing the auto bailout.

The script:
Made in America. 
For generations of Michigan autoworkers it’s more than a slogan. 
It’s a way of life.

But when a million jobs were on the line…
Every Republican candidate turned their back. 
Even said, "Let Detroit go Bankrupt".

Not him…
Now, a retooled, restructured industry is back…
because of the grit and sacrifice of Michigan workers.

About last night: Santorum got tripped up talking about Washington and Congress… Romney stayed on message -- so much so that he didn’t bother to answer some questions… Gingrich played referee and shined in some moments… And Paul, as expected, helped Romney by going after Santorum… Don’t miss all of last night’s indirect discussion of He Who Must Not Be Named: George W. Bush… Obama talks energy in Miami, FL at 2:25 pm ET, reminding us of perhaps his biggest legislative failure: cap-and-trade… Bob McDonnell’s retreat in VA… And John Lewis on Santorum and Obama. 

*** About last night: So what did we learn during the 20th (and maybe final) debate of the GOP presidential primary season? For starters, Rick Santorum didn't get tripped up on social issues. But instead, he got tripped up on talking too much about the inner workings of Congress. Earmarks, debt-ceiling votes, Arlen Specter. That’s exactly what Team Romney wants GOP primary voters to think about Santorum: that’s he’s a creature of Washington. Santorum was right on the facts of these issues, but those facts are unpopular, especially for a conservative audience. Romney, meanwhile, was aggressive and did everything he could to keep Santorum talking about Washington. What’s unclear: What did Romney do for himself? He didn’t spend much time talking about his new tax plan (which in hindsight is surprising), nor did he seem focused on the general election (as he had been in previous debates).

Joshua Lott / Reuters

Rick Santorum talked at length about the inner workings of Congress, stepping right into the Washington insider picture being painted by opponent Mitt Romney's campaign.

*** Is it possible to stay on message too much? In fact, Romney was so much on message at times that he didn't even bother answering some questions.   When moderator John King asked his final question of the night -- about the biggest misperception of each candidate -- Romney talked instead about the importance of restoring “America’s promise.” When King followed up to repeat his question, Romney replied, “You get to ask the questions you want; I get to give the answers I want.” But as NBC’s David Gregory pointed out on “TODAY” this morning, Romney missed an opportunity here to convince viewers that he’s a consistent conservative, or to let voters know something about his biography and family. And of all things to get snippy about with the media, it seemed odd to go after that innocuous question.

See related: Romney, Santorum clash in critical debate

*** Breaking down the other performances: As for Gingrich, he talked history and engaged in verbal hyperbole, but he wasn't the force he was in South Carolina or even leading up to Iowa. That said, he did play referee – noting that it was inconsistent for Romney to denounce Santorum’s earmarks but ask for his own when he was heading up the 2002 Olympics, and arguing that Romney wasn’t telling the truth when he said that Massachusetts didn’t require the morning-after pill for rape victims. Gingrich might not have another comeback in him, but he certainly did find moments to shine -- and any vote Gingrich re-acquires comes right out of Santorum’s hide, not Romney’s. And Ron Paul? Well, as expected, he directed most of his fire at Santorum and not anyone else. It only reinforces the perception that he’s become Robin to Romney’s Batman. The other factor in the debate worth noting was the heavily pro-Romney (and anti-Santorum) audience. It raised the question whether the debate might have been different if the audience makeup was different, or if the debate was held under more realistic circumstances where crowds were not encouraged to become part of a TV show… 

*** Indirectly criticizing He Who Must Not Be Named: And then there was the presence of the former president who must not be named in the GOP presidential contest: George W. Bush. While Bush wasn’t directly invoked during the debate, almost everything the candidates were arguing about last night (No Child Left Behind, the 2004 Specter-Toomey primary, the debt-ceiling votes, TARP, the 2001 airline bailout, the 2002 steel bailout, the “Bridge to Nowhere”, the 2001 earmark for the Olympic games) all took place during the Bush years. So, in that respect, the Republican presidential candidates ended up criticizing Bush as much as they criticized President Obama. And speaking Obama, his re-election team is ecstatic this morning about last night’s debate. Why? The conversation was about earmarks, contraception, hard line on immigration, and potentially pre-emptive war. They believe all of the topics the GOP debated last night put the party in a bad place with swing voters.

*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Romney remains in Arizona… Santorum attends a Red, While & Blue Super PAC event in Dallas, TX…Gingrich attends three rallies, making stops in Kennewick, WA, Spokane, WA, and Coeur d'Alene, ID.

*** Obama talks energy (and reminds us of one of his administration’s biggest failures): In Florida at 2:25 pm ET today, Obama delivers remarks on energy and gas prices at the University of Miami. Per a White House official, the president “will highlight his administration’s strong record of developing new domestic energy sources, expanding oil and gas production, and reducing our reliance on foreign oil.” Yet the subject of today’s speech is a reminder that there’s no bigger issue where Obama failed to deliver legislatively than on energy. There are all sorts of reasons why the cap-and-trade bill never became law (the Senate Dems from coal-producing states, Climate-gate, Scott Brown’s election delaying health care, the environmental community’s lack of energy and mobilization), but it remains one of the administration’s biggest missed legislative opportunities. But it’s bigger than just cap-and-trade: The lack of a cohesive energy policy was criticized by all the candidates running in 2008. Yet here we are in 2012, still without a national energy policy…

*** Bob McDonnell’s retreat: And speaking of legislative failures, the retreat by Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and other state Republicans on that “transvaginal” ultrasound bill was the worst of all worlds for the GOP in this VERY IMPORTANT battleground state. The good news for Republicans: It’s over; they’ve folded. The bad news: The retreat has disappointed their base, the original legislation fired up Democrats, and the whole matter took Republicans away from the one issue that won them success from 2009-2011: the economy.

*** John Lewis on Santorum and Obama: In his weekly “PRESS Pass” show, NBC’s Gregory interviewed Dem Rep. (and civil-rights icon) John Lewis, who talked about Rick Santorum (with whom he served in Congress) and President Obama. On Santorum: “It’s amazing to see Rick and the role that he’s playing. I’m not so sure he believes all the things that he’s saying… I just don’t think that is the man that I knew when he served in the House.” And on Obama: “Some of the things that you hear people saying about this president… This president has been called everything but a child of God. And as, and I’ve been around a while -- I have never, ever seen the type of hostility that exists in America; we didn’t have this type of hostility during the height of the Civil Rights Movement.” By the way, on “Meet the Press” this Sunday, Gregory will interview Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) and California Gov. Jerry Brown (D).

Countdown to Arizona and Michigan primaries: 5 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 12 days
Countdown to Election Day: 257 days

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*** Thursday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Debate reaction with former Sens. Jim Talent (Romney backer) and Mike DeWine (Romney-turned-Santorum backer)… Deep dive with NBC's Mike Isikoff on what Romney did for the 2002 Olympics… More 2012 news with The New York Times' Jackie Calmes, The Washington Post's Nia-Malika Henderson and National Review's Robert Costa.

*** Thursday's "Jansing & Co." line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Mother Jones’David Corn, TheGrio.com’s Perry Bacon, Jr., Steve Forbes, Chip Saltsman, Dem strategist Debbie Dingell, and Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler.

*** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: NBC’s Luke Russert (filling in for Thomas Roberts) interviews House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, Sandra Fluke (Democrats’ sole witness at today’s contraception hearing), Richard Wolffe, Liz Sidoti, RNC Hispanic Outreach Director Bettina Inclan, and VA State Delegate Charniele Herring (on VA’s ultrasound bill).

*** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include former NY Gov. George Pataki, former PA Gov. Ed Rendell, Deputy NYC Mayor Howard Wolfson, NBC’s David Gregory, Gingrich Super PAC Adviser Rick Tyler, and NY Daily News Columnist S.E. Cupp

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, the Romney campaign’s Eric Fehrnstrom, the Paul campaign’s Doug Wead, Time’s Joe Klein, Nick Burns, former Dem Rep. Jane Harman, the New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza, National Journal’s Major Garrett, and the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart.

*** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Chip Saltsman and Michael Smerconish, Time’s Jim Frederick, and NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell.

“Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum ripped into one another at Wednesday night's GOP presidential debate in their last joint appearance before a chain of make-or-break contests,” The Hill writes. “Romney was helped out in his attacks by his GOP rivals, which left Santorum, who has surged in the polls recently, playing defense most of the night.”

The Arizona Republic: “Republican presidential combatants Mitt Romney and Ron Paul pounded GOP rival Rick Santorum as a phony fiscal conservative who indulged in wasteful earmarks in an at-times tense and at-times humdrum faceoff Wednesday at the Mesa Arts Center in advance of the high-stakes Arizona and Michigan primaries.”

“Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum last night took their campaign fist fight back to prime time, clashing on the auto bailout, earmarks and ‘RomneyCare’ in a testy debate just days before the make-or-break Michigan primary,” the New York Post writes. “Santorum, riding a wave in the polls but facing a withering assault by Romney, struggled to explain past votes for spending programs and Bush-era legislation at last night’s CNN debate in Arizona, which like Michigan votes Tuesday.”

The New York Daily News: “Republican debate: Rick Santorum comes off looking ‘like a fourth-place candidate’.” From the story: “[R]ather than capitalizing on the center-stage spotlight that his recent surge provided, the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania delivered a performance that amounted to a lost opportunity.”

The AP fact checked last night’s debate and leads with this: “Twenty Republican presidential debates later, the head-scratching claims kept coming… There was something old, something new in the misstatements of the candidates Wednesday in what was possibly the last GOP debate.”

Romney claimed that “They finally realized I was right,” on the auto industry/bailouts. The AP writes: “[T]here was a tremendous difference between the course he advocated and the one that was taken. GM and Chrysler went into bankruptcy on the strength of a massive bailout that Romney opposed. Neither Republican President George W. Bush nor Democratic President Barack Obama believed the automakers would have survived without that backup from taxpayers.”

Sen. Marco Rubio, a potential VP pick, speaks to Time about why Republicans need to adjust the messaging on immigration policy: “What’s the Republican legal-­immigration plan? And that’s a problem, when all they hear from you is what you’re against and not what you’re for. The Republican Party has to become the pro–legal immigration party. It has to be a party that puts out two things: a common­sense, compassionate yet law-based response to people that are here without documents, and a robust legal-­immigration system that ­emphasizes border security, worker security and an workable visa program. We have to have a proactive policy in that regard, and we haven’t.”

Yet he defended his opposition to the DREAM Act and accused Democrats of supporting it for political purposes.

GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich's home-state Atlanta Journal Constitution notes that in last night's debate "Newt Gingrich, the former Georgia congressman, arms folded and legs crossed under his chair, mostly stayed out of the crossfire."

ROMNEY: Here was a stunner from Romney. The Hill: “Mitt Romney said that reelecting President Obama would guarantee a nuclear war with Iran.” Romney said, “‘We must not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. If they do the world changes, America will be at risk and someday nuclear weaponry will be used. If I'm president that will not happen. If we reelect Barack Obama it will happen."

The Detroit Free Press endorsed Romney today, but grudgingly: “This endorsement should be a slam dunk for Mitt Romney,” it writes in its opening. It adds: “[F]or the past 12 months, Romney has been refashioning himself as something other than what his record suggests. He has made gestures toward economic and social radicalism, and eschewed the common sense of cooperative governing that made him a success in Massachusetts. Romney was also dead wrong when he opposed government bailouts for the auto industry (Michigan’s most vital economic engine) in late 2008. And he has since adopted a recalcitrant and, at times, revisionist defense of his position in the face of overwhelming evidence that the bailouts he opposed were necessary.”

And this: “To compete with stauncher conservatives of lesser achievement and stature, Romney has essentially played down to their level. He is chest-beating and straining to prove his ideological bona fides (recently, he called himself “severely” conservative), rather than focusing on the nuanced, sophisticated strength of his record. That’s a mistake he will need to correct if he becomes the GOP nominee and hopes to even compete with President Barack Obama in the fall. But Romney, unlike the zealous Rick Santorum, the impulsive Newt Gingrich and the backward-thinking Ron Paul, is preferable to the rest of the field.”

“A Detroit newspaper editor is criticizing Mitt Romney's campaign for its selective editing of the paper's endorsement,” The Hill writes. The editorial page editor was miffed that Romney’s campaign edited out the paper’s criticism of him for not supporting the auto bailout: “They should have run the complete, original version,” Detroit News Editorial Page editor Nolan Finley said in an interview Thursday evening with media critic Jim Romensko. “It’s a bit inappropriate to edit out the mild criticism.”

The Wall Street Journal likes the latest iteration of Romney’s tax plan: “One oddity of this Republican Presidential primary season is that front-runner Mitt Romney has had by far the least inspiring tax plan. That changed yesterday when the former Massachusetts Governor took a dive into the deep end of the tax reform debate with a proposal that includes a 20% across-the-board cut in income tax rates. Now we're getting somewhere.”

But it didn’t like this: “Mr. Romney made the mistake yesterday of distinguishing between deductions for "middle-income families," which he said would be preserved, and for the ‘top 1%,’ which he said would be on the table. This sounds like a pollster's bad advice. It merely plays into Mr. Obama's class-war theme when Mr. Romney should be stressing growth.”

The New York Daily News: "Anne Frank— the most famous of all Holocaust victims — has been posthumously baptized at a Mormon temple, fueling the growing controversy over the bizarre practice. The rite was conducted Saturday in a Mormon temple in the Dominican Republic, according to Helen Radkey, an excommunicated church member turned whistleblower."

SANTORUM: The Boston Globe headline: “Rick Santorum admits a lot of mistakes during choppy GOP debate.” The Globe’s Johnson writes: “Santorum struggled with the frontrunner’s mantle and the barrage of attacks that come with it.” The debate “was perhaps most noteworthy for Santorum’s repeated concession of past political mistakes and his repeated pledges not to repeat them.”

“Santorum was targeted throughout the debate in Mesa, Arizona, as he shared the stage with rivals for the first time since he unseated Romney atop national polls of the Republican race,” Bloomberg writes. “Joining Romney in the attack on Santorum -- which included questions about the anti-abortion stances that have defined his career -- was U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas.”

And Byron York, per GOP 12, notes Santorum’s frustration last night in the spin room with the emerging Romney-Paul bromance: “You have to ask Congressman Paul and Gov. Romney what they've got going together. Their commercials look a lot alike, and so do their attacks." "They've got something going on?" a reporter asked Santorum. "You tell me," Santorum said.

Bloomberg notes that Santorum’s transformation to leadership in the Senate “required him at times to compromise his conservative ideology to fulfill political ambitions. Along the way, Santorum built a bipartisan roster of critics. Only one of his former Senate colleagues has endorsed his Republican presidential bid -- and former Ohio Senator Mike DeWine did that only after endorsing two other contenders first. Twenty-seven former and current senators have endorsed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.”

On Obama’s energy speech at the University of Miami today, the AP writes, “Obama is heading to Florida on Thursday to promote an energy strategy that the administration says will reduce dependence on foreign oil in the long term. But Obama's pitch will also have a subtext: that the federal government can do little to halt the current rise in gasoline prices.”

The New York Daily News: “President Obama on Wednesday proposed lowering the corporate tax rate and closing tax loopholes, moves he said would make the United States more competitive and fair. But Republicans said his plans aren't ambitious enough,”

The Republican National Committee’s having a little fun at Obama’s expense, welcoming Obama to Miami. “Fifteen seconds is all it takes for the RNC to sing a different tune than the President,” it said in an email with an online ad and video, called, “Obama’s Got America Singin’ the Blues.” “The online ad highlights how gas prices have increased from $1.85 to $3.59 in three years under Obama. The RNC's day-long YouTube ad buy on Thursday is targeted to viewers watching news and politics content on YouTube in the Miami area.”

CALIFORNIA: A Field poll has Romney leading Santorum 31%-25%, with Ron Paul at 16%, Gingrich 12%.

MICHIGAN: “The campaign advertisement featuring a drowning man appeared during the first commercial break of the local evening newscast on Detroit’s Fox affiliate. He drowned again during the third break, after the sports scores,” Bloomberg writes. “That Mitt Romney campaign ad aimed at rival Rick Santorum is one of many running on Michigan’s airwaves before the Feb. 28 Republican presidential primary. There’s so much advertising by Romney, Santorum and their allies that some spots are running twice during a single 30-minute television newscast.”

A Free Press/ WXYZ poll shows Santorum up 37 percent to Romney's 34 percent in the state.

NEVADA: “The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a Spanish-language radio ad today in Nevada that ties Republican Sen. Dean Heller to Sharron Angle,” Roll Call reports. “The ad, launched in coordination with Rep. Shelley Berkley (D), twice mentions Angle, the 2010 Senate candidate and tea party lightning rod, and claims Heller is running ‘an anti-Latino campaign,’ according to a translated transcript of the ad.”

NEW YORK: “All the allegations [against Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY)] may eventually make for a one-term Congressman. But,” Roll Call notes, “right now, the only Democrat in the race is Mark Murphy, a former aide to the New York City public advocate. He is not seen by Democrats as a strong candidate.”

VIRGINIA: Richmond Times-Dispatch headline: “Pressured by McDonnell, House passes weakened ultrasound bill.” From the story: “McDonnell, an abortion opponent who is widely considered a GOP vice presidential contender, made public Wednesday his disapproval of the measure — for which he had previously signaled support. The governor said in a statement that ‘mandating an invasive procedure in order to give informed consent is not a proper role for the state.’ He added: ‘No person should be directed to undergo an invasive procedure by the state, without their consent, as a precondition to another medical procedure.’”

With gas prices expected to rise throughout the summer, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the effect high gas prices could have on President Obama’s re-election chances.

Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

TRANSCRIPT TO FOLLOW.

DETROIT, MI -- For the second time in a day, a top Michigan newspaper has endorsed Mitt Romney in next Tuesday’s GOP primary here -- while noting reservations about the former Massachusetts governor’s opposition to the 2008 auto bailout.

Citing his “leadership credentials” in his public and private careers, the Grand Rapids Press this afternoon writes that Romney’s “free-market, entrepreneurial emphasis provides a legitimate ideological counterpoint to Obama Administration.”

The editors of the newspaper also point to what they call “flaws” in Romney’s record, including his opposition to the auto bailout.

“Also disappointing are inconsistencies in his message, which The Press editorial board addressed in 2008, when it endorsed Romney for that year’s primary election,” the editors added.

But the newspaper -- which covers the conservative, western portion of the state -- reserves its sharpest criticism for Romney’s chief challenger, Rick Santorum, whom it accuses of “delving into a grab bag of diversionary tactics” during recent campaign stops.

“His accusing Obama of practicing ‘some phony theology’ is off-topic and divisive,” the editors write of Santorum’s oft-quoted remarks in Ohio last weekend.

Earlier today, the Detroit News also endorsed Romney while making clear it disagreed with him on the auto bailouts. 

A third Michigan newspaper, the Detroit Free Press, will announce its endorsement in the GOP primary Thursday morning.

TUCSON, AZ -- Rick Santorum called America "a moral enterprise" and accused President Obama of "systematically trying to crush the traditional Judeo-Christian principles" at a tea party rally here on Wednesday.

Speaking to nearly 200 supporters, the presidential hopeful did not shy away from many of the controversial topics that he has taken criticism for in recent days. The former Pennsylvania senator said the health care law signed by the president in 2010 undermines religious freedom and is an attack on Christianity.

"The greatness of america is we have such diversity, with the proviso -- 'E Pluribus Unum, out of many, one.' Essentially we are going to need to hold together on some set of moral codes and principles," said Santorum. "And we're seeing very evidently what the president's moral codes and principles are about. We see a president who is systematically trying to crush the traditional Judeo-Christian principles in this country."

As he has many times throughout the campaign, Santorum pointed to the recent controversy surrounding a Health and Human Services mandate requiring religious institutions to cover contraception in health care coverage as an example of the president's assault on religion.

"This is what I know gets everybody on the secular left just bonkers about my campaign. They just go crazy, because I say that America is at its heart a moral enterprise," Santorum said.

He also accused the president of resigning America to "evil forces," a nod to recently surfaced reports of a 2008 speech in which Santorum warned against the influence of Satan in America.  At a stop Tuesday night in Phoenix, AZ, Santorum held that will defend everything he says. Using the language of good versus evil on Wednesday signaled he had no plans to back down from that rhetoric.

"He's making the world a much more dangerous place as he continues to pull America back and allow those who seek to do harm to freedom, those who seek to oppress -- yes, evil forces around the world," Santorum said.

But, with ashes still visible on his forehead after attending Catholic Mass on the first day of Lent, Santorum did seem to quell fears about the role his deep like held religious convictions might play in governing.  "People who have faith are actually more respectful of people with different faiths," he said.

The rally marked Santorum's third campaign stop in Arizona, but it was the first where he addressed immigration at length. He maintained his hard-lined stance against illegal immigration, maintaining that those who are here without having gone through the proper channels should be deported.

Despite a new NBC/Marist poll showing Santorum running well behind chief rival Mitt Romney in this state, he told the crowd that the message their state sends on Feb. 28 will be an important one.

"Everyone’s focused in on Super Tuesday, and there are a lot of states up on Super Tuesday, but more than anything else, what happens in MI and AZ next week is gonna havet he biggest impact on Super Tuesday in this election than any two states," he said.

All eyes are on the four GOP hopefuls who are taking the stage tonight in Mesa, Ariz., at a debate sponsored by CNN.

The NBC political team will be live-tweeting the debate, offering minute-by-minute updates and analysis.

Tweets from NBC producers and correspondents  will appear in this post as the debate begins at 8 p.m. ET.

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), a potential GOP VP pick later this year, had initially signaled that he would sign into law legislation requiring a transvaginal ultrasound for those wanting an abortion in the state.

As the AP wrote last week:

Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, a socially conservative Roman Catholic, has said he will sign the ultrasound bill, but has taken no position on Marshall's personhood bill, said his spokesman J. Tucker Martin.

But McDonnell has now reversed course, saying in a just-released statement that he wants the legislation to be amended so "that no woman in Virginia will have to undergo a transvaginal ultrasound involuntarily."

More McDonnell: "I am asking the General Assembly to state in this legislation that only a transabdominal, or external, ultrasound will be required to satisfy the requirements to determine gestational age. Should a doctor determine that another form of ultrasound may be necessary to provide the necessary images and information that will be an issue for the doctor and the patient. The government will have no role in that medical decision."

CHANDLER, AZ -- In an effort to add specificity and boldness to his fiscal policy, Mitt Romney today unveiled his new tax plan, which cuts personal income tax rates across the board by 20%.

He also said these tax cuts will not increase the deficit, thanks to offsetting cuts and changes to entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security.

"I’m going to lower rates across the board for all Americans by 20%. All right?" Romney told a cheering crowd at a rally here outside Phoenix.

As a portion of paying for his plan, Romney proposed eliminating deductions and exemptions for the highest-earning Americans, which he said would preserve the "progressivity" of the current tax code.

He said he wants to make sure "the top 1% keeps paying the current share they're paying, or more."

"We want middle-income Americans to be the place we focus our help, because it’s middle-income Americans that have been hurt by this Obama economy," Romney added.

Romney released a more detailed plan online to coincide with his rally today, but here he largely glossed over the other two portions of what was billed as an integrated approach to reforming tax policy, spending and entitlements.

"So our tax plan is part of the economy going and getting more people back to work and adding more jobs. But I don't want to add to the deficit. That's why I cut a number of federal programs to make sure we get America on track to have a balanced budget. In the long term we have to make sure that Medicare and Social Security are preserved. It is one whole package," Romney said.

But Romney did not say which programs he would cut (other than President Obama's federal health-care law). Nor did he expand upon positions he has already taken (like raising the retirement age and modifying Medicare to include a "premium support" system that allows for a private health-care option).

And in what will almost certainly open a new front in the ongoing war between the White House and the Romney campaign, the former Massachusetts governor criticized Obama's tax-reform policy, also set to be released later today, as effectively a tax hike-in-disguise.

"He’s proposing today a corporate tax plan, which I understand sounds like he’s lowering taxes. But he’s raising taxes -- raises taxes on businesses by hundreds of billions of dollars. He’s raising taxes on these companies that flow through, that pay taxes on individual rates. Raising taxes will kill jobs. My plan will create jobs. That’s the difference between the two of us."

Before his remarks today, the Obama campaign released this email:

"Mitt Romney has already rolled out a budget plan that doesn’t add up. By giving large tax cuts to millionaires, billionaires and corporations while increasing defense spending to an arbitrary level, his budget would lead to massive increases in the deficit.  So when Romney announces his tax reform plan today, will he be specific about the tax increases and deep spending cuts he needs to pay for it?  Or will his plans add to the $2 trillion in deficits over the next decade he has already proposed?" 

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Newt Gingrich says he will not attend mass today, Ash Wednesday, because he is not obligated to do so by the Catholic Church.

"It’s not a Holy Day of obligation," Gingrich told reporters outside his Phoenix area hotel Wednesday morning.

The former House Speaker, who converted to Catholicism in 2006, said he has gone and received ashes in the past but will opt out this year.

He is, however, thinking about the Lenten Season.

"I am going to give up desserts ... all desserts," Gingrich said. (It is customary in Lent for the devoted to give up something.)

"I am giving up my opinion," Gingrich’s wife, Callista, said jokingly.

The couple, which loves McDonald’s, said they definitely are not giving that up.

The speaker will be spending today in private meetings and preparing for the presidential debate tonight.

“My debate prep is to think deeply,” he said.

Gingrich also met briefly with Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) at a local hotel, taking pictures with the governor and Callista. Some news outlets are reporting Brewer will make an endorsement of a GOP candidate after the debate in Mesa, AZ, tonight.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, seeking to kick-start his presidential campaign among recalcitrant conservatives, will propose cutting the top income tax for individuals to 28%, advisers said today.

Mr. Romney's earlier economic plan called only for preserving the current top tax rate of 35%, while holding out the promise of lower rates later in an overhaul of the tax code. But facing a major challenge from upstart Republican rival Rick Santorum, he has chosen to outline such an overhaul today in Arizona ahead of critical Feb. 28 primaries there and in  Michigan -- and before a televised debate tonight in Mesa.

Mr. Romney's top economic adviser, Glenn Hubbard, said the plan would cut all six current tax brackets -- 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, 35%, depending on a taxpayer's income - by the same proportion of 20%. That would produce this new set of tax brackets: 8%, 12%, 20%, 22.4%, 26.4%, and 28%. "It's a marginal rate cut for every American," Mr. Hubbard said.

But he added that Mr. Romney is committed to making his plan both "revenue neutral" -- meaning it won't add to the budget deficit -- and "distributionally neutral" -- meaning that it won't shift the tax burden from upper-income Americans to middle and working class Americans. Since the largest benefits from rate reduction would go to upper income taxpayers, so will the burdens of "base broadening" reductions in existing deductions needed to keep the government from hemorrhaging revenue, he explained.

Reducing large tax deductions, such as the ones for home mortgage interest and state and local taxes, is politically treacherous because of their popularity with voters and elected officials alike. For now, at least, Mr. Romney will dodge any potential backlash by avoiding any specifics.

Mr. Romney will pledge to work with Congress on "limiting them," Mr. Hubbard said, but "It is not his intention to take on any specific deduction or exclusion and eliminate it."

Mr. Romney has praised the work of President Obama's Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction commission, and criticized the Democratic incumbent for ignoring its work. But Mr. Romney is also rejecting the commission recommendation that tax overhaul produce increased government revenue to cut the deficit, while embracing its recommendation to cut the top tax rate to 29% or lower.

Mr. Hubbard contrasted Mr. Romney's "pro-growth" plan with Mr. Obama's proposal to raise taxes on individuals earning more than $200,000 and households earning more than $250,000. He argued that would hurt economic growth by crimping small businesses, many of which file under the individual tax code.

Mr. Hubbard, who advised former President George W. Bush and now is dean of the business school at Columbia University, also cast the Romney plan as superior to that of Mr. Santorum. The former Pennsylvania senator would also cut the top individual rate to 28%, the level it reached after Congress and the White House agreed on a tax overhaul plan during Ronald Reagan's presidency, which preserving only one more tax bracket of 10%. In the name of "national security", Mr. Santorum has also proposed a zero tax rate for manufacturing businesses as a means of preserving and expanding that economic sector.

The Santorum plan would dramatically expand the budget deficit, Mr. Hubbard said, and the zero rate for manufacturing would result in "significant capital misallocation." "Net-net, it's a job destroyer, not a job creator," Mr. Hubbard said.

Both Mr. Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has proposed an optional "flat tax" system of 15%, have accused Mr. Romney of timidity. With his new proposal, Mr. Romney seeks to counter that charge in advance of tonight's debate.

Mr. Romney's plan aims to balance two competing priorities of different Republican factions. By proposing to cut the top rate, he bids for support among supply-side conservatives who contend that lower marginal rates are the key ingredient for producing economic growth.

But by vowing to offset the loss of revenue by eliminating some deductions, he responds to concerns among deficit hawks about expanding the tide of red ink that has the federal government spending an estimated $1.3-trillion more than it takes in this year.

And by insisting that those unspecified reductions will fall most heavily on the affluent, he seeks to limit his own exposure as a wealthy former financial industry executive who himself has paid taxes at only around the 15% rate because most of his income comes from capital gains. Mr. Romney would maintain the current 15% rate on dividends and capital gains.

Mr. Obama has proposed to tax the "carried interest" received by many hedge fund and private equity executives at higher ordinary income rates rather than as capital gains, arguing that current law gives them an undue advantage. Mr. Hubbard said a President Romney would ask his Treasury Secretary to study tackle the "devilishly hard question" of whether current law should change and tax some of that income at ordinary income rates.

Mr. Romney had previously proposed eliminating capital gains taxes on taxpayers earning less than $200,000. That drew fire from some conservatives, and campaign rivals such as Mr. Gingrich, on grounds that gave unwarranted preference to a specific group and would have small economic impact since those taxpayers receive relatively little in capital gains anyway.

Mr. Romney also proposes to eliminate both the estate tax and the Alternative Minimum Tax, while cutting the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%.

Mr. Hubbard said three different revenue streams would keep the plan from increasing the budget deficit: the "dynamic" effects of economic growth, the additional income that would be subject to taxation through "base broadening", and spending cuts Mr. Romney plans that would reach $500-billion per year by 2016. The campaign promised more specifics on those spending cuts within the next week.

In advance of Mr. Romney's tax plan, Mr. Obama's Treasury Department proposed its own corporate tax overhaul plan cutting the top corporate rate to 28% by eliminating some existing corporate deductions. Part of the Obama plan includes a minimum tax on the overseas income of U.S.-based corporations. Mr. Hubbard, accusing the administration of a "full-throttle attack on multinationals", said Mr. Romney will propose shifting to a territorial system that would not tax corporate income earned overseas.

*** UPDATE *** At an event earlier today, Romney alluded to which cuts and deductions he would go after, especially on the rich. He said the highest-income earner, in fact, should keep "paying their current share ... or more."

"And in order to limit any impact on the deficit," Romney said, "because I don't want to add to the deficit, and also to ensure that we continue to have progressivity as we've had in the past with our code, I'm going to limit the deductions and exemptions particularly for high income folks. And by the way, I want to make sure you understand, for middle income folks. And by the way, I want to make sure that you understand for middle-income families, the deductibility of home mortgage interest and charitable contributions -- those things will continue, but for high-income folks, we’re going to cut back on that, so that we make sure the top 1 percent keeps paying the current share they’re paying or more. We want middle-income Americans to be the place we focus our help, because it’s middle-income Americans that have been hurt by this Obama economy."

The pro-Santorum Super PAC Red, White, and Blue Fund today released a new TV ad in Michigan jabbing Mitt Romney and positioning Rick Santorum as the consistent conservative alternative to President Obama.

The 30-second ad, entitled “Vital Decisions,” begins with a cutout of Romney next to an image of Obama. “How can Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama when on the vital decisions they’re not much different?” the narrator says.

The narrator then lists Romney and Obama’s similarities:  “Like Obama, Romney drastically increased spending. Increased state taxes and fees. Even worse, RomneyCare is the blueprint for ObamaCare.”

And over an image of a smiling Rick Santorum, the narrators says, “Who can win?”

The answer: “Rick Santorum.”

“The principled leader who’s fought against big government,” the narrator adds. “With a bold plan to create jobs and cut wasteful spending.”

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow comfortably leads her Republican challenger who ran a racially-charged ad in his campaign, according to the new NBC News/Marist poll released Wednesday.

Stabenow, a two-term incumbent whom Republicans had believed was vulnerable this cycle in the economically-challenged state, leads former Rep. Pete Hoekstra by 21 points among registered voters, according to the new polling data.

If the election between Stabenow and Hoekstra were held today, 53 percent of registered voters said they would elect Stabenow to a third term, while 32 percent would support Hoekstra. Fifteen percent of Michigan voters said they were undecided.

The numbers, while coming at an early point in the campaign, reflect an uphill climb for Hoekstra, whom Republicans had hoped would offer their best shot to unseat Stabenow. A former committee chairman during his time in Congress, Hoekstra had fallen short in his gubernatorial bid in 2010 after losing in the Republican primary. But the GOP's success as a whole statewide that year had stoked optimism about their chances to beat Stabenow, a senior Senate Democrat and chairwoman of the chamber's agriculture committee.

Hoekstra's disadvantage may well reflect a degree of fallout related to an ad run by his campaign in Michigan on Super Bowl Sunday. The Republican candidate took fire for racial overtones in the ad, which depicts an Asian woman speaking in broken English, facetiously thanking Stabenow for spending policies which, the ad contends, help China.

Hoekstra's campaign, which had initially stood by the ad, has now scrubbed it from its YouTube page and has taken down a related website.

NBC News and Marist also tested a Senate matchup in the border state of Arizona. Republican Rep. Jeff Flake, a darling of fiscal conservatives, leads Democratic challenger Richard Carmona, the former U.S. Surgeon General.

Forty-two percent of registered Arizona voters said they would support Flake if the election were held today, versus 29 percent who would vote for Carmona; 28 percent of Arizonans said they were undecided.

Both Flake and Carmona are running to succeed retiring Sen. Jon Kyl, the No. 2 Senate Republican.

The polls of Arizona and Michigan were each conducted Feb. 19-20, The sample of registered voters in Michigan has a 1.8 percent margin of error, and the sample of Arizona registered voters has a 2 percent margin of error.

CHICAGO -- While Republican presidential rivals continue to brawl over the nomination, President Obama's re-election campaign is aggressively courting one of the constituencies most enthusiastic about the Democratic flagbearer in 2008: swing-state college students and other voters under 30.

The outreach events at 12 colleges and universities in 10 states over the next two months won't just entail some Facebook fan pages and the occasional celebrity drop-by. The Greater Together Summit Tour will include in-person policy discussions led by top re-elect brass like campaign manager Jim Messina, adviser David Axelrod, and deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter. Local officials, student leaders, and actors and actresses will also be participating, with appearances from onetime White House staffer Kal Penn and actress Gabrielle Union.

The "summit" tour kicked off at Columbus State Community College in Ohio earlier this month and featured an appearance by field director Jeremy Bird. An aide said that over 700 people attended a second summit event last night at North Carolina Central University, where Messina led students in chants of "Fired Up! Ready to Go!"

Other events are scheduled in February for schools in Nevada, Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire; March will see similar events held at major universities in Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and  Michigan. A similarly-themed series of roundtable discussions at historically black colleges and universities will hit 28 schools in the coming months as well.

The events -- which are structured to include policy discussions of issues important to young voters as well as question-and-answer sessions -- are aimed at recruiting volunteers, energizing new voters, and reminding young supporters who were in their early 20s four years ago why they got on the Obama train in the first place.

A review of 2008 exit polls shows why the re-engagement effort may be crucial for Obama's performance in swing states in 2012. In North Carolina, where Obama barely eked out a victory over John McCain, young voters broke for the Democrat by 48 points, offering more than 10 points more support than the national youth average. In Virginia and Wisconsin, young people made up 21 and 22 percent of the voting population respectively, compared to the 18 percent youth participation rate nationwide.

According to Scott Keeter, the director of survey research at Pew Research Center, Obama would have still easily won the necessary 270 electoral votes last cycle even without his strong performances with young voters.

But in 2012, with a much closer electoral count likely, turnout among 18-29 year olds could make the difference between loss and victory in a swing state.

"When the difference before winning and losing the election may come down to North Carolina, or Virginia, or Colorado, you're in an 'every vote counts' scenario," Keeter said.

Obama still has a substantial advantage with younger voters. A January NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that, in a head to head matchup, Obama would beat Mitt Romney 51 percent to 40 percent with voters under 35. A November poll by Pew found Obama's support with those under 30 at 61 percent against Romney, and even higher with young voters who are black or Hispanic.

But the re-election team's biggest challenge will be keeping its past supportive young voters engaged, voting, and volunteering, especially as the sluggish job market hits their demographic hard.

"Older voters haven't been as directly affected by the job situation as young people have," said Keeter, noting that young minority voters are particularly victim to high unemployment rates. "There's a lot of drag on the president's ability here to reconstruction his coalition."

Those are the kind of concerns that the leaders of Team Obama -- like Messina -- hope to allay by reminding voters of the president's accomplishments with in-person engagement in young peoples' own states.

"When people say to you 'where's the hope?' or 'where's the change?'" Messina told voters Tuesday night in North Carolina, "I need you to remind them that change is being delivered every single day."

Mitt Romney is getting his money's worth out of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Beginning today, Michiganders will be hearing from "The Donald" in the form of a Robo-call on Mitt Romney's behalf.

On the call, which was previewed to NBC News this morning, Trump slams Rick Santorum as someone who "doesn't know about creating jobs," and is "completely entrenched in the Washington culture."

"I'm tired of Rick Santorum pretending he's some kind of DC outsider," Trump says at the start of the recording.

Trump spokesman Michael Cohen says the call will go out statewide, beginning today, and will go on for several days.

Trump has been active on Romney's behalf over the last week -- taking part in a New York City fundraising effort and doing radio interviews in Michigan and Ohio in which he has praised the former Massachusetts governor and attacked his rivals, but not ruled out his own third party run should Romney fail to win the nomination.

Santorum and Romney are locked in a close battle for Michigan, Romney's home state.

As First Thoughts noted this morning, Michigan primary voters are being bombarded with robo-calls from both campaigns ahead of Tuesday's contest.

"He will win," Trump says of Romney on the call. "You've got to give him a chance."

Tied up in Michigan: New NBC/Marist poll -- Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 8%... But NBC/Marist also has Romney with a sizable lead in Arizona – Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 11%... Organization is helping Romney in both states (see his early-voting/absentee advantage), but ideology is hurting him (Tea Party supporters and conservatives breaking toward Santorum)… General-election numbers: Obama leads in Michigan, but trails in Arizona… Three questions heading into tonight’s GOP debate in Arizona… It’s the 20^th of the cycle, and it begins at 8:00 pm ET… And Obama’s corporate-tax plan.

*** Tied up in Michigan: Less than a week before Tuesday’s crucial GOP presidential primary in Michigan -- and before tonight’s debate in Arizona -- a new NBC/Marist poll finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie in Michigan, while a separate NBC/Marist survey shows Romney comfortably leading in Arizona. The Michigan numbers among likely Republican primary voters: Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, and Gingrich 8%. The Arizona figures: Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, and Paul 11%. “Michigan is neck and neck,” says pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted both surveys (Feb. 19-20).

Paul Sancya / AP, file

A new NBC/Marist poll finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie in Michigan, while a separate NBC/Marist survey shows Romney comfortably leading in Arizona.

*** Organization vs. momentum: What’s helping Romney in both states is organization; what’s hurting him is a lack of support from conservatives. Among those who have ALREADY voted absentee in Michigan -- 16% of likely GOP voters, according to the poll -- Romney leads Santorum, 49%-26%.But among those who HAVEN’T voted in Michigan yet, Santorum is up by one point, 37%-36%. The same is true in Arizona: Among those who have voted early or absentee in Arizona -- more than half of all likely GOP voters in the poll -- Romney leads by 30 points, 52%-22%. But his lead is just one point among those who haven’t voted yet, 34%-33%. Call it organization vs. momentum. But while the Romney campaign’s early-voting organization is clearly helping him, a lack of support from conservatives is hurting him. In Michigan, Santorum leads Romney among self-identified Tea Party supporters, 48%-29%, and those who describe themselves as “very conservative,” 59%-20%. Yet among those who don’t support the Tea Party, Romney is ahead by more than 20 points, 45%-24%. The same ideological pattern is true in Arizona, although Romney performs much better with the most conservative voters there than in Michigan (thanks in part to the larger Mormon population in Arizona).

*** Obama leads in Michigan, trails in Arizona: Turning to the general-election race in November, Obama leads Romney in Michigan by nearly 20 points among registered voters, 51%-33%, with 15% undecided. Against Paul, the president’s lead is 22 points (53%-31%); against Santorum, it’s 26 points (55%-29%); and against Gingrich, it’s 28 points (56%-28%). What’s more, 51% of registered Michigan voters approve of Obama’s job; 63% of them believe the auto industry bailout was a good idea (including 61% of independents and 42% of likely GOP primary voters); and a majority think the president deserves credit for the auto industry’s recovery. But Arizona is tougher territory for the president, whose approval rating among registered voters in the state is just 38 percent. In hypothetical match-ups in the state, Obama trails Romney by five points (40%-45%); Santorum by three (42%-45%); Paul by two points (41%- 43%); yet he leads Gingrich by five (45%-40%). Bottom line: Michigan probably won’t be a battleground come November, and Arizona also appears to be a reach -- though the one number Team Obama might take heart in is the fact he ONLY leads Romney 50%-33% among Hispanics in the state… with 17% undecided. But it’s still hard to see how the president gets over 47%-48% in Arizona THIS November.

*** Three questions heading into tonight’s debate: The four remaining Republican presidential candidates will gather tonight in Mesa, AZ beginning at 8:00 pm ET to participate in the 20^th debate of the GOP race. Here are three questions we have going into the debate. One, will Santorum get sucked into the conversations on social issues? Over the past four or five days, the story surrounding Santorum has been defined by either religion or social issues. (The latest development here: The Drudge oppo-research hit on a 2008 Santorum speech in which Santorum said, “Satan is attacking the great institutions of America.”) Two, will the debate feature the emerging “bro-mance” between Romney and Paul? (The latest examples: Paul’s new TV ad hitting Santorum, as well as his campaign sending anti-Santorum oppo to reporters.) And three, after being largely silent over the last couple of weeks, will we see any life from Gingrich tonight?

*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Before tonight’s debate, Romney holds a rally in Chandler, AZ… And Santorum delivers a speech in Tucson.

*** Obama’s corporate-tax plan: “President Obama will ask Congress to scrub the corporate tax code of dozens of loopholes and subsidies to reduce the top rate to 28 percent, down from 35 percent, while giving preferences to manufacturers that would set their maximum effective rate at 25 percent,” the New York Times writes. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will outline this corporate-tax plan today. A couple of points to make here: 1) The White House is refusing -- for now -- to get into individual income-tax reform, because that’s MUCH trickier (you have to eliminate popular deductions, etc.); and 2) The timing of this announcement comes before Romney’s own economic speech on Friday. As NBC’s Garrett Haake reported yesterday, Romney promised “to unveil a more specific economic plan later this week, one that that would integrate his views on tax policy, spending and entitlement reform into one complete package.” It is hard to do corporate tax reform separate from individual income tax reform which is why this White House policy release should be viewed through a much more political prism until and unless we see real details on individual income tax reform.

Countdown to Arizona and Michigan primaries: 6 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 13 days
Countdown to Election Day: 258 days

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*** Wednesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: More on the new NBC/Marist numbers with Marist College's Lee Miringoff… Politico's Jonathan Martin and The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza on the battle between organization and momentum with six days to go before Michigan and Arizona vote… A deep dive on Romney's relationship with the auto industry with Jeff Greenfield… More 2012 headlines with the New York Times' David Leonhardt, the Washington Post's Anne Kornblut and Rodell Mollineau of the super PAC American Bridge 21st Century.

*** Wednesday's "Jansing & Co." line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews former Romney debate coach Brett O’Donnell, L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa;  CQ-Roll Call’s David Hawking, Pulitzer Prize- winning journalist Karen Hunter, Dem pollster Celinda Lake, Inside Michigan Politics Bill Ballenger, and National Political Reporter for the Arizona Republic Dan Nowicki.

*** Wednesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’S Thomas Roberts talks with Jen Psaki, Trey Hardin, Meghan McCain, David Winston (Gingrich senior adviser), and former Transportation Secretary (and Obama supporter) Federico Pena.

*** Wednesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Rolling Stone’s Eric Bates, the New Yorker’s Kelefa Sanneh, New York Times Magazine Editor Hugo Lindgren, Politico’s Maggie Haberman, and Ron Paul campaign chair Jesse Benton.

*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, the New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza, Romney surrogate Jim Talent, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Dan Yergin, NBC’s Pete Williams, former Sen. Russ Feingold, NBC’s Brian Williams, and the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart.

*** Wednesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews AB Stoddard and Michael Smerconish, John Harwood, and NBC’s Pete Williams.

In what will be the 20^th debate this cycle, “Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum will take the stage Wednesday night for their first meeting since Santorum upended the GOP race two weeks ago with a spate of victories over the Republican front-runner,” The Hill writes. “The hugely anticipated presidential debate offers the GOP hopefuls their last, best chance to reclaim control of a chaotic race before a tidal wave of make-or-break contests on Super Tuesday, March 6. For Santorum, the Arizona and Michigan primaries seven days hence offer a chance to shatter Romney. … Romney’s task is to stop Santorum’s recent surge and reassert himself as the inevitable nominee-in-waiting who can best lead the general-election fight to unseat President Obama.”

Taegan Goddard notes of the new AP-GFK poll: “Just 40% of Republicans say they have a great deal of interest in following the contest, compared with 48% in December. Key findings: Only 23% are strongly satisfied with the field and 40% said they are dissatisfied with the candidates running.”

GINGRICH: “GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich made a bold claim during a Monday campaign rally in Georgia, while mocking President Obama's plan to provide subsidies for plug-in electric cars,” The Hill writes. Gingrich told supporters, "Here's my point to folks. You can't put a gun rack in a Volt." Well, actually… “[O]ne Chevy Volt driver took up the former House Speaker's statement as a challenge, posting a YouTube video of his black Volt equipped with a homemade gun rack in the trunk.”

Politico’s Morning Score reports: “Newt 2012 will announce plans today to purchase 30-minute blocks of airtime in key cities between now and Super Tuesday to air a video address by Newt Gingrich on lowering gasoline prices and achieving energy independence. For the full half-hour, Gingrich looks directly into the camera and speaks without a teleprompter or text. ‘The answer to Governor Romney's 30-second attack ads filled with garbage is a 30-minute address filled with substance,’ Gingrich Communications Director Joe DeSantis says in a forthcoming release. The campaign says it will announce air times and locations of the speech in the coming days, but DeSantis declines to say how much money will actually be put behind the video.” Here’s the video.

First Read can report that the Gingrich campaign has already purchased 30 minutes in Spokane, WA, according to GOP ad tracker Smart Media Delta. Washington state holds its nominating contest March 3^rd.

PAUL: The Columbus Dispatch takes a look at Ron Paul's unique volunteer network in Ohio.

ROMNEY: The Detroit Free Press finds an example of the kind of blue-collar voter who's a problem for Romney. "Wayne Robertson, 77, of Warren said he is leaning toward voting for Rick Santorum in next Tuesday's Republican primary because, as a union man, he doesn't like Romney's support for right-to-work laws."That could be a real problem on the plant floor," he said."

The Detroit News endorsed Romney, citing electability and private sector know-how. On the auto bailout: "We disagree with Romney on a point vital to Michigan — his opposition to the bailout of the domestic automobile industry. Romney advocated for a more traditional bankruptcy process, while we believe the bridge loans provided by the federal government in the fall of 2008 were absolutely essential to the survival of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Corp. The issue isn't a differentiator in the GOP primary, since the entire field opposed the rescue effort." And on Santorum, it notes: "Nothing in his background suggests he has the skills to unify Americans behind his banner and become the leader of the free world. In addition, his fealty to the religious right will make him unappealing to the critical independent voters who will decide the election."

SANTORUM: Santorum’s up 35%-26% in a national Quinnipiac poll. He narrowly edges Romney, 33%-32%, in a new AP-GFK poll; Gingrich and Paul get 15%.

Santorum leads by 16 points in Wisconsin, 34%-18% over Romney in a Marquette Law School Poll. Paul gets 17%, Gingrich 12%. Wisconsin holds its primary April 3^rd.

“It’s Rick Santorum’s moment — and he needs to be careful,” the New York Daily News writes. “Santorum will take the stage at Wednesday’s night’s crucial Republican debate knowing that a commanding performance could propel him into the driver’s seat in the topsy-turvy race. But the former Pennsylvania senator will be in the debate spotlight for the first time this primary season — and the unblinking glare could cast an unflattering shadow on Santorum’s extreme right-wing social positions.”

“Rick Santorum’s language on religion and values is coming under deeper scrutiny and raising questions about whether he should be the GOP standard-bearer in the fall,” The Hill writes.

The Huffington Post throws cold water on Santorum’s staunch anti-abortion rights stance: “Prior to entering public office, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum was a self-admitted pro-choice Republican unwilling to dabble in the cultural conservative politics that now defines his presidential campaign, a review of old campaign documents and interviews shows,” it writes, adding, “In a December 1995 Philadelphia Magazine article -- which the Huffington Post pulled from Temple University archives -- Santorum conceded that he ‘was basically pro-choice all my life, until I ran for Congress... But it had never been something I thought about.’ Asked why he changed his mind, he said that he ‘sat down and read the literature. Scientific literature,’ only to correct himself and note that religion was a part of it too.”

Newly minted Obama re-election co-chair Ted Strickland says that Santorum may prove a formidable general election candidate. From the Cleveland Plain Dealer: "'All along I have felt that Mitt Romney would probably be the strongest general election challenger to the president,' Strickland said of the former Massachusetts governor and one-time GOP front-runner who has been eclipsed in recent polls by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. 'I'm not sure that's true any longer. I think Rick Santorum may emerge as the stronger general election candidate.'"

Roll Call looks at the scrutiny pro-Santorum Super PAC Red, White, and Blue Fund is receiving.

The Seattle Post Intelligencer writes that Washington state Democrats are cheering publicity for Rick Santorum, saying it will help mobilize their base in downballot races.

“President Obama will ask Congress to scrub the corporate tax code of dozens of loopholes and subsidies to reduce the top rate to 28 percent, down from 35 percent, while giving preferences to manufacturers that would set their maximum effective rate at 25 percent, a senior administration official said on Tuesday,” the New York Times says. 

A round up of general-election polling:

Obama is virtually tied with Romney nationally, up 46%-44% in a national Quinnipiac poll. He leads Santorum by three, 47%-44%.

An AP-GFK poll has Obama leading Romney 51%-43%, up from 47%-46% in December. Obama leads Santorum 52%-43%; Gingrich 52%-42%; and Paul 52%-44%. Romney’s fav/unfav is 50%-43%, Paul 47%-40%, Santorum 44%-42%, Gingrich 33%-58%.

A Marquette Law School poll shows Obama leading in Wisconsin by 15 points over Romney, 53%-38%, and a slightly narrower 11-point margin over Santorum, 51%-40%.

Bloomberg headline: “Obama Campaign Set for Political Fallout From Gasoline Prices.” From the story: “The price rise, driven in part by increased tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and higher demand as the U.S. recovery strengthens, is the one negative in recent economic data that have enhanced Obama’s political position. The cost of gasoline confronts voters daily.”

“Obama will visit the University of Miami on Thursday to discuss steps the administration has taken to increase domestic oil and gas production, senior administration officials said Tuesday,” The Hill writes, adding, “The Miami event highlights the danger Obama faces from higher gas prices, which tend to climb into the spring and summer but are already well above where they were at this time in 2011, a year that saw prices reach their highest levels since records were set in the summer of 2008. Higher gas prices could threaten the president’s newfound political momentum.”

“When President Barack Obama stepped off Air Force One in Orlando on Jan 29, Sen. Bill Nelson was conspicuously absent. This time around, however, the two-term incumbent will be on hand for Obama’s appearance in Coral Gables tomorrow, his staff told FLDemocracy.”

“President Obama did not raise as much money from supporters last month as he did during January 2008 in his first campaign for the White House, a Globe analysis of campaign finance reports shows, suggesting a lower level of enthusiasm for the president in traditional Democratic quarters,” the Boston Globe notes.

Obama sang again. Here’s video from the TODAY show.

“President Obama will speak at the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) conference next month, White House press secretary Jay Carney said Tuesday,” The Hill writes. “Obama will meet the following day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is also giving a speech at the policy conference.”

Well, there you go… “Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will reveal the findings of his office's investigation into the authenticity of President Obama's birth certificate on March 1, he announced Tuesday,” The Hill writes.