As Mitt Romney criticizes Rick Santorum for encouraging Democrats to vote in today's Michigan GOP primary -- "I think Republicans have to recognize there's a real effort to kidnap our primary process," he said today -- it is worth remembering that Romney said he voted for a Democrat in the 1992 primaries to help the GOP.

Rebecca Cook / Reuters

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney greets supporters during a stop at his Michigan campaign headquarters in Livonia February 28, 2012.

During his '08 White House bid, it was revealed that Romney voted for Paul Tsongas (D) in the 1992 Democratic primaries. Romney's explanation at the time: "When there was no real contest in the Republican primary, I'd vote in the Democrat primary, vote for the person who I thought would be the weakest opponent for a Republican."

Here's the transcript from a Feb. 18, 2007 ABC interview:

ABC: Let me talk about your political journey. You were an independent, a registered independent in the 1980s. You voted for Paul Tsongas as Democrat in the 1992 primaries. Now you've describe yourself as a Reagan Republican.

MITT ROMNEY: Kind of a mischaracterization. In Massachusetts if you register as an independent you can you vote on either the Republican or Democrat primary. When there was no real contest in the Republican primary, I'd vote in the Democrat primary, vote for the person who I thought would be the weakest opponent for a Republican… But let me tell you, in the general election, I don't recall ever once voting for anyone other than a Republican. So, yeah, as an independent I'll go in and play in their primary but I'm a Republican and have been through my life. I was with Young Republicans when I was in college back at Stanford. But a registered independent so I could vote in either primary.

At his press avail today, Romney was asked about his vote for Tsongas in the 1992 Democratic primaries.

Romney responded: "It’s very different running for -- being a candidate for president, buying ads, and telling Democrats to go, to go mess into a Republican primary and to vote against me."

He continued, "In my case, I was certainly voting against the Democrat who I thought was the person I thought would be the worst leader of our nation. In this case, as I recall, it was Bill Clinton. I wanted someone other than Bill Clinton. And certainly and against -- I voted against Ted Kennedy, Tip O’Neill, and Bill Clinton. It seemed like a good group to be against."

LIVONIA, MI -- As Michigan primary voters head to the polls in this pivotal, deadlocked contest, Mitt Romney today admitted he has made mistakes as he's campaigned in his birth state.

And he leveled new attacks meant to halt any late momentum for his rival Rick Santorum, calling out the former Pennsylvania senator for engaging in "dirty tricks" -- and also labeling him a "lightweight" on the economy.

"I'm very pleased with the campaign, its organization," Romney said this morning at his first press conference in nearly three weeks. "The candidate sometimes makes some mistakes, and so I'm trying to do better and work harder and make sure that we get our message across."

Romney refused to elaborate on his mistakes, telling the press he "can't imagine" they would have a hard time coming up with anything. He later acknowledged with a one-word "Yes" that comments this week that have highlighted his wealth -- including saying his wife owns two Cadillacs, and that he is friends with NASCAR team owners -- have been problematic for his campaign.

"Never repeat your mistakes," Romney told reporters gathered in his campaign headquarters here, before returning to his main focus today: Santorum.

Romney launched a new line of attack on Santorum, describing him as an "economic lightweight," unschooled in how to create jobs, or how the economy works. Romney even used the words of another candidate against the former Pennsylvania senator, who's campaign admitted yesterday it is reaching out to Democratic voters across Michigan, urging them to vote for Santorum in the GOP primary.

"I understand yesterday Newt Gingrich made a comment, which turns out to be pretty accurate. He said that Senator Santorum is a big labor Republican, and he has proved that again by doing the work of the UAW [United Auto Workers] and the Obama team," Romney said. "Linking up with them, taking one not for our team but for their team, and trying to get them to vote against me so that they can have someone who they think is easier to beat in the fall."

Santorum's effort to turn out Democrats against Romney was clearly a focus of his appearance this morning. Romney dispensed with the usual made-for-TV hallmark of his primary-day events: He never picked up a phone to call undecided voters. Instead, upon arriving with Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder in tow, he joked with his own volunteers.

"You are making calls to Republicans today. This is a good thing, all right," Romney said drily. "The Santorum campaign is making calls to Democrats today."

Romney told the assembled press, and a senior adviser later acknowledged as well, that the most difficult element about gauging which way this state will break, and whether it will be a photo finish or a clear win for either candidate, was the potential Democratic interference in the primary.

"I think Republicans have to recognize there’s a real effort to kidnap our primary process," Romney said. "And if we want Republicans to nominate the Republican who takes on Barack Obama, I need Republicans to get out and vote and say no to the ... dirty tricks of a desperate campaign." 

Romney also addressed the concerns raised by some about his apparent inability to excite the base of his party, saying he is not willing to "say anything to get the nod," and that he would continue his laser-like focus on the economy going forward.

"You know it’s very easy to excite the base with incendiary comments. We've seen throughout the campaign that if you're willing to say really outrageous things that are accusative and attacking of President Obama that you're going to jump up in the polls," Romney said. "You know I'm not willing to light my hair on fire to try and get support. I am who I am. I'm a person with extensive experience in the private sector and the economy."

Susan Walsh / AP

President Barack Obama speaks before the National Governors Association, Monday, Feb. 27, 2012, in the State Dining Room of the White House.

The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Arizona was 16 years ago, when Bill Clinton carried it in 1996.

The time before that? More than half a century ago, when Harry Truman won the state.

But as Republicans compete in their own primary there today, President Barack Obama's re-election team also has its eye on Arizona, a state where a growing Hispanic electorate and a deep divide on immigration policy could potentially help the president collect a much-needed 11 electoral votes in November.

A win there would be a reach, however. A recent NBC/Marist poll put Obama's approval rating in the state below 40%, and it showed him trailing most of the Republican presidential candidates there.

While Obama -- who didn't contest Arizona four years ago -- lost it by eight percentage points in 2008, his team believes that Sen. John McCain's less-than-double-digit victory in his own home state did much to lay bare Republicans' vulnerability there.

And, four years later, Obama's opponent is likely to face a much harsher reception from the state's growing Latino electorate than McCain, whose push for comprehensive immigration reform nearly derailed his candidacy early in the GOP primary.

From vows to veto the DREAM Act to heavy courtship of controversial endorsers like Arizona's Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, GOP candidates' language on immigration has prompted public worry from Republican Hispanic groups as well as from party leaders like former Gov. Jeb Bush.

In Arizona, which became ground zero for the immigration debate after its 2010 passage of legislation that would give police broad authority to detain suspected illegal residents, Democrats have a favorite noun to describe Republican rhetoric on the matter.

"Overreach."

"I can't underscore enough our sense on the ground is that Republicans have overplayed their hand in terms of rhetoric and legislating immigration law," says Phoenix-based Democratic strategist Barry Dill. "And there's a backlash."

Those working to turn the state blue were thrilled to hear Mitt Romney call Arizona's stringent SB 1070 immigration measure "a model" for the nation's policies during a Feb. 22 debate in Mesa. They believe that kind of language -- underscored by Romney's endorsement on Sunday by Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed the bill into law -- could further mobilize Arizona voters looking for more moderate solutions to the immigration issue.

Harnessing that feeling on the ground will be the task of the campaign's substantial Arizona field operation.

The re-election campaign has three field offices already in Arizona -- in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff -- and another set to open in heavily Hispanic Glendale in the coming weeks. The campaign says that staff and volunteers have held almost 500 voter registration sessions and more than 200 phone banks since the spring. Much of that effort is focused on the Hispanic community, with events held at Hispanic supermarkets and weekly Spanish- and English-language phone banks targeting Latinos. The campaign recently hired a Mexican-American regional field director.

While Team Obama hasn't yet invested in paid media there, the DNC has aired TV advertisements, including a six-day anti-Romney buy last year.

With the number of voting age Hispanic citizens growing by a whopping 85% last decade, per Census data, the benefits of such a focus are obvious. But the lift may still prove to be a heavy one.

The NBC/Marist Arizona survey this month also found that 51% of Hispanics approve of the president's performance, with 34% disapproving and 15% unsure.

Compare that to the 2008 numbers: Obama won 56% of the Latino vote in Arizona compared to McCain's 41%.

Luis Heredia, the executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, estimates that Obama would have to boost that number to at least 65% in November to get over the finish line.

And Dill, who served as deputy state director for the Clinton/Gore win in 1996, puts that number even higher, at 68%.

He added that Democrats must be careful in 2012 to tailor their message to a diverse Hispanic community, saying that the party stumbled in past elections by treating the group as a single monolithic block.

"A big part of it had been our fault as campaign managers, as leaders," Dill said. "We had sort of homogenized the Hispanic community in Arizona into one group. And they're not, they're very diverse."

This year, Democrats say there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Obama's team points to Democrats' double-digit mayoral victories in Tucson and Phoenix last year as well as the recall of Arizona State Senate president and author of SB 1070.

And Heredia adds that downballot races, like the one to replace retiring Rep. Gabby Giffords, will help build excitement for activists locally.

"I gain more and more confidence every day," he said.

Decision Day in Michigan (and Arizona, too)… What’s riding on tonight’s Michigan race: It will determine if Romney limps to the nomination or if all hell breaks loose… Why didn’t Romney go after Santorum’s controversial comments (on college and JFK)?... A combined 59 delegates are up for grabs in AZ and MI… Final polls close in both states at 9:00 pm ET… Team Romney outspends Team Santorum in Michigan by 2-to-1 margin… And Adelson cuts another check.

Laura Segall / Reuters

Republican presidential candidates former Senator Rick Santorum and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney smile before the start of the Republican presidential candidates debate in Mesa, Arizona, February 22, 2012.

*** Decision Day in Michigan (and Arizona): Four weeks ago, after Mitt Romney’s decisive victory in Florida, few would have predicted that today’s primary in Michigan -- a state where Romney grew up, where his father served as governor, where he launched his ’08 presidential campaign -- would become such a consequential contest. Now? There’s so much riding on today’s Republican presidential primary there. Tonight will largely decide if Romney limps to the nomination or if all hell breaks loose inside the GOP. There's no overstating the consequences of a Romney loss tonight: There won’t just be handwringing by the establishment, but there will be financial and staffing consequences, too. Given those stakes, Romney yesterday made his final pitch to Michigan voters with a special appearance by Kid Rock. Rick Santorum’s campaign began running robo-calls urging Democrats to vote for Santorum and against Romney. And some Democrats are doing the same to fellow party members in this essentially open primary. The polling, including last week’s NBC/Marist survey, showed the race tight, with maybe a finger on the scale in Romney’s direction. Buckle your seatbelts; tonight could be quite a ride.

*** Why didn’t Romney go after Santorum’s controversial comments? If Santorum ends up pulling off the upset in Michigan -- after all the controversial comments he’s made in the past few days (on college education, JFK’s 1960 speech on the separation between church and state) -- you have to wonder if the Romney campaign made a mistake by not attacking those comments. Indeed, you could argue that what Romney HASN’T said might be as significant as what Santorum HAS. David Brooks -- who barely mentions Romney in his column today, but whose point seems to be all about him -- seems to suggest the same. “All across the nation, there are mainstream Republicans lamenting how the party has grown more and more insular, more and more rigid. This year, they have an excellent chance to defeat President Obama, yet the wingers have trashed the party’s reputation by swinging from one embarrassing and unelectable option to the next: Bachmann, Trump, Cain, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum. But where have these party leaders been over the past five years, when all the forces that distort the G.O.P. were metastasizing?”

*** Trying not to offend: It's truly astonishing that Romney is acting as if he's so concerned about alienating some conservatives that he won't even challenge Santorum on the "snob" comments regarding college education. And if Romney is that fearful about standing up to Santorum, what does that say about his personal leadership qualities? As many folks have remarked over the last few days, the lack of agility of Romney as a candidate has been on full display these last 72 hours. His primary campaign has been about not offending anyone on the right. And if Romney loses tonight, he'll have that strategy to thank. 

*** Combined 59 delegates up for grabs tonight: Michigan isn’t the only contest tonight. Arizona is also holding its primary, although the polling there has Romney with a sizable lead in the state. Per NBC’s John Bailey, Michigan will send 30 delegates to the GOP convention. (The state initially had 59 delegates, but the RNC penalized them for violating party rules by going before March 6.) Twenty-eight of the 30 delegates are awarded as winner-take-all based on the vote in each congressional district, and the two other delegates are awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote total (but a candidate must receive at least 15% to be eligible). In Arizona, Bailey adds, 29 delegates are at stake. (The state originally had 58 delegates, but the RNC stripped half the delegation for the same rule violation as Michigan.) Arizona’s contest is pure winner-take-all, with all of the state’s 29 delegates going to the winner of the statewide vote.

*** Breaking down Michigan: In Michigan four years ago, turnout was just less than 870,000 (869,169 to be exact). The counties with the most Republicans are Oakland (133,431), Wayne (99,370), and Macomb (77,195). Wayne County includes most of Detroit; Oakland County includes the more affluent suburbs north of the city; and Macomb County, home of the “Reagan Democrats,” includes the more blue-collar areas northeast of town. Romney won Michigan last cycle, with 39% of the vote, a nine-point victory over eventual nominee John McCain. Three of Romney’s four strongest counties were Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne -- where he won by 21, 20, and 18 percentage points, respectively. Michigan does not have early voting, but it does allow voters to cast ballots absentee if they give an approved excuse. The primary is open; any registered voter can vote in either primary, but not both. Most of Michigan’s polling places close at 8:00 pm ET, but the four counties in the Central Time Zone close at 9:00 pm ET, and so 9:00 pm ET would be the earliest the networks could call this race.

*** Breaking down Arizona: In 2008, per NBC’s Bailey, about 541,000 Arizona Republicans turned out (541,035 to be exact). Favorite son John McCain won the state with 47% of the vote. Mitt Romney was second with 35%. The two largest counties in Arizona are Maricopa (Phoenix) and Pima (Tucson). Together they accounted for nearly 80% of Arizona GOP voters last cycle. Arizona has early voting, which took place from Feb. 2 through last Friday. Arizona’s primary is closed to registered party members, so only registered Republicans can vote today. Polls close at 9:00 pm ET.

*** Team Romney outspends Team Santorum in Michigan by 2-to-1 margin: In Michigan, Romney and his allies outspent Santorum and his allies by a 2-to-1 margin, $4.1 million vs. $2.1 million. Here are the final ad-spending numbers: Restore Our Future (pro-Romney Super PAC) $2.4 million; Romney campaign $1.7 million; Red, White, and Blue Fund (pro-Santorum Super PAC) $1.2 million, Santorum campaign $897,000; and Paul $50,000. In Arizona, meanwhile, Restore Our Future spent $610,000; Winning Our Future (pro-Gingrich Super PAC) spent $62,000; and Santorum spent $60,000.

*** Adelson cuts another check: Speaking of spending and Super PACs, the Washington Post reports that Sheldon Adelson will be writing another HEFTY check to the pro-Gingrich group Winning Our Future. “An independent group supporting Newt Gingrich has received another ‘substantial’ contribution from billionaire casino owner Sheldon Adelson and will launch TV ads in seven states this week, a source close to the group confirmed Monday. The source, who requested anonymity to speak freely, did not confirm the amount of the contribution but called it substantial and at least on par with two $5 million donations Adelson and his family have given previously.”

*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Santorum stumps in Michigan before heading to a rally in Perrysburg, OH at 11:30 am ET… And Gingrich holds three rallies in Georgia.

Countdown to Super Tuesday: 7 days
Countdown to Election Day: 252 days

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*** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: NBC’s Peter Alexander and Ron Mott with live reports on the ground in Michigan… Romney supporter and former presidential candidate Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI) on what’s at stake today… A deep dive into the history of Michigan primary upsets with NBC’s Tom Brokaw… More 2012 analysis with Politico’s Maggie Haberman, TheGrio’s Joy-Ann Reid and National Review’s Reihan Salam.  

*** Tuesday's "Jansing & Co." line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer, Michigan Republican Party Chairman Robert Schostak, the NYTimes’ Charles Blow, NY Daily News’ S.E. Cupp, Inside Michigan Politics Bill Ballenger, Democratic Pollster Stan Greenberg, and former U.S. ambassador to Morocco Marc Ginsberg. 

*** Tuesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’S Thomas Roberts talks with Santorum Senior Strategist John Brabender, Jeff Zeleny, Karen Finney, Susan Del Percio and John Harwood.

*** Tuesay’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Salon.com’s Steve Kornacki, MSNBC Contributor Robert Traynham, The Nation’s Katrina Vanden Heuvel, MSNBC Political Analyst Karen Finney, the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward, Colin Goddard of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, and NBC’s Chuck Todd.

*** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews NBC’s Chuck Todd and the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, NBC’s Peter Alexander and NBC’s Ron Mott, Santorum spokeswoman Alice Stewart, Politico’s Jonathan Martin, and NBC’s Ann Curry.

*** Tuesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews TheGrio’s Perry Bacon, Inside Michigan politics’Bill Barrenger, AZ Republican Political consultant Chip Scutari, and Michael Smerconish

“After two weeks in the headlights of the national hunt for a Republican presidential candidate, Michigan voters go to the polls today, and the outcome could help determine whether the grinding slog continues or Republicans finally start to rally around one candidate,” the Detroit Free Press writes.

The Detroit News: “After weeks of campaigning, attack ads and robocalls, it's now time for Michigan voters to decide who will be the state's favorite for the GOP nomination for president.”

The GOP primary today gets just a little bit of real estate on the front page of today's Arizona Republic. (A little more below the fold for the Daily Star.)

“Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney yesterday accused each other of being unfit for the Republican presidential nomination in the finale to a primary vote today that could reshape the contest once again,” the Boston Globe says. “Santorum called Romney ‘uniquely unqualified’ to be the nominee, saying his rival’s Massachusetts health care plan would hinder Republicans from criticizing President Obama’s similar federal plan. He also again described Romney’s claim of conservatism as laughable. ‘Michigan, you have the opportunity to stop the joke,’ Santorum said. Romney, for his part, called Santorum ‘a nice guy but he’s never had a job in the private sector. . . . I think to create jobs it helps to have a guy as president who’s had a job.’”

The Hill: “Tuesday’s contests in Michigan and Arizona couldn’t come soon enough for the Republican candidates, all four of whom emerged bruised and visibly depleted by the most recent stretch of the campaign.”

(The Hill also notes that some Democrats are convinced Romney will be the nominee and then pick Marco Rubio, and that they are targeting him now.)

PAUL: At his third and final campaign event of the day, Ron Paul spoke to a “Doctors for Ron Paul” rally in Dearborn, MI inside the Ford Community and Performing Art Center that sat over 1,400 people and was at capacity, NBC’s Anthony Terrell reports.  An overflow room was opened up that event management said had over 1,000 people watching Paul on a screen.

The majority of the audience was Muslim Americans, many women in head scarfs, and cheered Paul’s message of civil liberties and ending wars overseas.  He told the crowd Israel shouldn’t have to ask for permission from the United States on peace treaties and their borders, then explained why America’s involved so often in the Middle East. “Part of the reason we get involved over there has to do with Israel. … To tell you the truth, I think Israel can take care of themselves, they have nuclear weapons and are a powerhouse. … This idea that we have to be trapped and we have to pay the bills and we have to be vulnerable, I just don’t think is the right way to do it.”

ROMNEY: Romney predicted victory. The AP: “‘I'm going to win in Michigan and I'm going to win across the country,’ Romney told the 1,000 or so supporters who crowded into the Royal Oak Music Theatre on Monday night for his last rally before voting began Tuesday.”

The Washington Post: “Just as Mitt Romney is aiming to add to his delegate lead in the Republican primary race with strong showings in Arizona and Michigan, his popularity among conservatives nationally is fading, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Only 38 percent of ‘very conservative’ Americans now express favorable views of the former Massachusetts governor. That’s his lowest mark of the campaign among staunch conservatives – a group he’s also struggled with in previous contests – and down 16 percentage points over the past two weeks.”

Romney told FOX he thought Santorum robocalling Democrats encouraging them to vote was a “dirty trick,” Political Wire notes.

“Mitt Romney stumped across Michigan yesterday in an all-out effort to stave off what would be a humiliating loss to Rick Santorum in Romney’s native state,” the New York Post writes, adding, “At a later event, Romney brought out Michigan musician Kid Rock to perform his anthem ‘Born Free’ to a crowd in Royal Oak. But unlike in Florida, where he had the luxury of virtually ignoring his rivals in the campaign’s final hours, Romney laced into his top opponent yesterday.”

The Boston Globe: “The campaign put in a formal request for Kid Rock to come play for a rally. The bad boy musician wanted to meet Romney first. So several days ago, before going to speak at a Tea Party gathering, Romney jumped into an SUV and rode to the singer’s home in suburban Detroit. The unlikely duo spent an hour together, talking about several issues. Then, matters turned to negotiations of sorts. ‘He put a piece of paper in front of me,’ Romney said. ‘He’d written down some questions for me.’ He wanted to know if Romney would help both Michigan and Detroit. Romney replied that he would. ‘Then I turned to him,’ Romney said. ‘And I said, ‘By the way, given the fact that I’m willing to do those things, will you come here and perform a concert tonight for my friends?’”

The Globe also notes that Romney at one point joined in waving his arms to the music with the crowd.

Not a good headline from the Globe: “Mitt Romney remembers Detroit celebration from before he was born.” From the story: “The discrepancy, first cited by the Toronto Star, is not the first time Romney got an event wrong about his early childhood. In 2007, Romney had to acknowledge that he had not watched his father march with Martin Luther King Jr., as he had asserted in a nationally televised debate. Romney said at the time that his father had told him that he had marched with King and that he was using the word ‘saw’ in a ‘figurative sense.’”

GOP 12: “Mitt Romney attended an automotive event before he was born.”

Will this advice help connect with blue-collar voters? The Hill headline: “Trump: Romney will win Michigan, should embrace wealth.”

“The Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint with the commission to request further inquiries into Restore Our Future’s paid television spots using a 2008 Romney campaign ad. The center said this action is breaking the law because super-PACs are not allowed to make direct or in-kind contributions to candidates, including re-publishing campaign materials ‘prepared by a candidate,’” The Hill reports.

SANTORUM: “Republican presidential contender Rick Santorum is courting an unusual coalition of tea party activists, social conservatives and Democrats to try to defeat Mitt Romney in Michigan's GOP primary,” AP writes, adding, “the Santorum campaign used automated telephone calls to encourage Michigan Democrats to vote against the former Massachusetts governor. Only declared Republicans may vote in Tuesday's GOP primary, but party rules allow voters to change their affiliation temporarily on the spot.” More: The robocall “says Democrats should send ‘a loud message’ to Romney by voting for Santorum.”

The Free Press notes of those Santorum robocalls: "The calls don’t mention that Santorum also opposed the bailouts of General Motors and Chrysler. The Obama campaign has targeted Romney repeatedly for his opposition to the government bailouts of the automakers."

“When Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum calls President Barack Obama ‘a snob’ for urging more Americans to attend college, he may be out of step with the public's overall view of higher education,” AP education writer Kimberly Hefling writes. “Many Americans are suspicious of the culture of academia, and most are angry about rising costs. But they overwhelmingly -- and increasingly -- agree that higher education is important and aspire to it for themselves and their children.”

President Obama addresses the United Autoworkers union today in DC. The New York Times previewed the speech and the UAW’s efforts: “The United Automobile Workers union, a primary beneficiary of President Obama’s decision to rescue domestic carmakers, is now trying to return the favor.” The UAW and other unions will “put their vast political organizations into motion behind Mr. Obama, testing their power in a difficult economy after years of declining membership.”

Obama today “will talk about steps to ensure that the economic recovery lasts and to signal to them that he shares their concerns about income inequality and preserving the middle class,” the Times continues. “One of organized labor’s motivating issues in the election is addressing disparities in wealth…. In an attempt to outnumber Republicans at the polls in November, union officials are getting an early start with voter registration drives in their plants. Successful efforts to curb collective bargaining rights in neighboring states like Wisconsin and Indiana are adding to a sense of urgency already heightened by the steep decline in ranks. The union has about 400,000 members — less than a third of its size 30 years ago.”

No joke… Bill Maher gave $1 million to Priorities USA Action last week.

The Boston Globe previews Obama’s New Hampshire trip Thursday: “President Obama will tout his economic plans, with a focus on energy, at Nashua Community College in New Hampshire on Thursday afternoon, the White House announced this evening. It will be the president’s second visit to the general election swing state in the last three months.”

AP: “President Barack Obama plans to announce Tuesday the creation of a new enforcement office to challenge what the White House calls unfair trade practices worldwide.”

OHIO: Santorum's lead in Ohio has stayed put, but the outcome in Michigan is likely to mix up the race there.

Early vote turnout in Hamilton County is notably low, says the Cincinnati Enquirer.

TENNESSEE: Gingrich's team is working aggressively in Tennessee, reports the Atlanta Journal Constitution: "Paid Gingrich campaign staffers have been pouring into Tennessee, where they have opened at least three campaign offices, said state Rep. Tony Shipley, a Republican from Kingsport who is the Tennessee state director for Gingrich's campaign."

Writes the Tennesseean: "One in five registered voters in Tennessee believes Mormonism is a “cult,” a description that could suggest deep-seated prejudice against Romney. But according to a recent poll by Vanderbilt University, this group is still likely to support Romney in November if he captures the Republican nomination, in part because of misgivings about his likely Democratic opponent."

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Just as the race may “redefine itself once again,” Newt Gingrich started attacking a different opponent Monday as he campaigned in Tennessee, hitting the man many believe to be his chief rival in the South -- Rick Santorum.

“You will see things start to clarify if, as people expect, you end up with a Romney victory in Michigan tomorrow, you will see Santorum getting a very different second look,” Gingrich told a crowd gathered for a luncheon.

“He [Santorum] has had two weeks of being the alternative. The fact is, I think there are profound reasons that Rick lost his Senate race in Pennsylvania history in 2006, and I think it is very hard for him to carry that all the way to the general.”

He added, "Then he comes South and you take the case right here. He voted for the unions over FedEx. I suspect most folks in the state don't know that. But in fact he was a big labor Republican in Pennsylvania and I suspect when you get to Memphis and you say to people, 'Gee, this is a guy who wanted to guarantee that FedEx give into the unions.' Santorum won't be as popular the following morning."

Tomorrow, Tuesday, voters take to the polls in Romney’s home state of Michigan and also in Arizona. The outcome there, if Santorum is able to pull out a win over Romney, would throw a wrench in Romney’s path to the nomination. The former Massachusetts governor, whose father served as governor in Michigan, has been spending increasing time and money in Michigan after Santorum’s poll numbers began to rise there.

The former Speaker of the House is use to the up and downs of this race that he often refers to as a “roller coaster.”

“I have the longest record of any candidate in this race to somehow re-emerge over and over again,” Gingrich said.

Gingrich was viewed as politically dead in this race last summer when most of his campaign staff quit, but then shot up in the polls in December before finishing a disappointing fourth in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The former speaker, though, won South Carolina by a commanding margin before struggling in the next six states. Santorum, Gingrich noted today, did something very smart after New Hampshire.

“He took all of his resources -- he skipped South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada," Gingrich said. "He went to three states [Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri] nobody else was in, won the three states, one of which was a disaster for Romney, because he dropped from 60 to 35 in Colorado, so Santorum now has got all the national news media momentum. So, we’re back through another cycle.”

Gingrich is banking on a win in Georgia and success in many other Southern states on Super Tuesday and beyond to help propel him back to front-runner status yet again.

Veering away from his Republican competitors momentarily during his event in downtown Nashville, Gingrich spoke about foreign policy, telling the roughly 100-person crowd the United States is not going to fix Afghanistan.

“There’s some problems, where what you have to do is say, ‘You know, you’re going to have to figure out how to live your own miserable life because I’m not here -- you clearly don’t want to hear from me how to be unmiserable,’" Gingrich said. "And that’s what you’re going to see happen."

But Gingrich, who has been focusing the themes of his campaign recently on gas prices and national security, believes this race is far from over.

“I think you could easily end up in a race, which will go to the convention for the first time in your lifetime,” he contended. “For us, it will be very nerve-wrecking.”

The White House isn't the only thing at stake on Election Night 2012.

Control of the House and Senate also hang in the balance, impacting the eventual president's ability to govern. It could be split government or even a three-chamber sweep for Republicans.

Video and transcript by NBC's Morgan Parmet.

TRANSCRIPT:

MARK MURRAY: Welcome to the latest addition of Inside the Boiler Room. I'm Mark Murray, joined by my colleague, Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, we got a question from Candice who asks, "What are the chances the Republicans retain the House and what seats are up for grabs that would allow the Republicans to take over the senate too?

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well one of the things we certainly love talking about: A little down ballot. So let's get to it here. The question here is can Democrats take back the House? Can Republicans retain the House?

You know a lot of people think that's probably not likely. It's probably the case because of redistricting and where things stand now that Democrats pick up high single digits is what a lot of people are looking at as something and they need about 25 seats

MARK MURRAY: Right.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: So, it's not likely that they take back the House. The Senate, however, is going to be hotly watched. Closely watched. The thing to watch on election night because what  we see right now, here's the field of play: Republicans will need three seats; will need to flip three seats, if President Obama loses.

If a Republican becomes President, they'll need three seats. If President Obama wins, they'll need four to take back the house. If you look through the field, let's go down the map. You've got North Dakota and Nebraska. Two right now you probably put in the Republican column. Then you also look at some Toss Ups like Missouri, Montana, and those two states a lot closer but maybe nudging, nudging, leaning towards Republicans. That's four.

But when we look at the other side of this, Democrats, you know, holding Virginia. Looks like a 50-50 race right now between Tim Kaine and George Allen, but also Nevada and Massachusetts are two targets that Democrats actually have. You know, the question between those three states, between Nevada, Virginia, and Massachusetts, as you've said, it seems if somebody wins two of those three, then we'll see who’s in control of the Senate.

MARK MURRAY: That is the one thing to look at. Whoever wins two of the three in Nevada, Virginia and Massachusetts will probably end up controlling the senate. Domenico, if Democrats are able to win all three and President Obama wins re-election, that's how they end up holding on to control of the Senate.

As for those House races again. The magic number is right. Democrats have to pick up 25 to take over the house. A lot of the very smart political analysts of the world, the Charlie Cooks, the Stu Rothenbergs, have looked back, that even when an incumbent President wins in a landslide fashion for re-election, that often that hasn't had a big down ballot effect. When Bill Clinton won in 1996, Democrats didn't win a whole bunch of House races. When George W. Bush won in 2004 even though it was contested, there wasn't a big down ballot effect.

So this is some of the reasoning why you might end up only having 10 or 15 House races switch hands. On the other hand, Democrats have to be feeling really good right now. When you look at polls, generic ballots are showing that things are starting to return a little bit more to 2008 from than they were 2010 when Republicans had that sweep in the House race.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yeah, and the Down Ballot effect is really important when you think about the Senate races especially in Nevada and Massachusetts because Massachusetts is obviously a state where Democrats are going to do well. In a Presidential election, it's one of the strongest Democratic or liberal states, but the question is going to be whether or not Scott Brown can convince voters who are going to vote for President Obama to also vote for him. That's, you know, can be a tall order, but he's done a lot of the things to move himself in a more moderate direction. Certainly irritating a lot of his tea party support when he had come in taking over what had been Ted Kennedy's seat.

In Nevada, if President Obama wins in Nevada, which he has done well with Hispanic voters. Did well there in 2008, then the question becomes will those same people who vote for President Obama also vote for Dean Heller. That's going to be an interesting thing to watch.

MARK MURRAY: Yeah, it really is. And it's just one of those things that we are going to be watching on election night. In addition to that, Presidential contest and all those battle ground states. Paying attention to the House, Senate, and also the Governor’s race.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Let's do it.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Penny Phelan places a Rick Santorum sign near a busy intersection in Macomb County near Detroit on Sunday afternoon two days before the primary.

MACOMB COUNTY, MI – This suburban Detroit county, hard hit by auto industry troubles and the economic downturn throughout Michigan, may well chart the path to victory for either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum in Tuesday’s primary.

Macomb County is the famed epicenter of “Reagan Democrats” in America -- the mostly white, blue-collar, Catholic voters known not only for their conservative sympathies, but dogged independence and a tendency of swinging from party to party.

The idea behind the label was always conceptual, but more and more, these voters find themselves more at home with the GOP. And thanks to Michigan's semi-open primary, which allows same-day party registration, their voices will be heard Tuesday.

Macomb is a county where voters are maybe the most attentive to the Republican candidates’ message on jobs right now.

“Our area, we’re a manufacturing county -- pretty much middle class. It’s a blue-collar county and it’s been about jobs,” said Republican state Rep. Ken Goike, who represents a portion of the county in the Michigan state legislature. “You can just feel the devastation.”

This county is known as a bellwether in national elections. Ronald Reagan won it twice by large margins, as did George H. W. Bush in 1988 and 1992. Bill Clinton carried the county in his re-election bid, and Al Gore narrowly bested George W. Bush here in 2000, though Bush eked out a victory over John Kerry in 2004. Barack Obama beat Arizona Sen. John McCain by 8 percentage points in the 2008 election.

Penny Phelan, of Harrison Township, was driving around with her husband, James, on Sunday afternoon to place yard signs in support of Rick Santorum at busy intersections.  The couple lost their home and has been living in an apartment after Penny lost her job as a kitchen and bath designer. James, an ex-Marine, works as a machinist.

A former Democrat who switched parties in the early 1980s, Penny said she felt that Democrats “have moved away from core values that are very important in families.” They’re backing Santorum not primarily because of his stance on moral issues, but because of his manufacturing agenda, and a sense that he’s more in touch with the people of Macomb than Romney, the native son of Detroit who left to start Bain Capital, later becoming governor of Massachusetts.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Michigan Republican primary voter Jared Maynard is backing Mitt Romney on Feb. 28.

“I feel like Santorum is for the basic guy. He has that connection, and understands the average worker in manufacturing and things like that have value,” she said of the former Pennsylvania senator, adding of Romney: “I just don’t think he’s lived it. And that makes a big difference, when you have people in your life who are suffering, and it’s close to you.”

But Romney has undeniable strength in the area. Many older voters can recall the days when his father, George, served as governor. And Romney has taken every stride possible to remind voters of his roots in the area, in stump speeches and frequent TV advertisements.

Jared Maynard, a former chairman of the Macomb County Republican Party who is backing Romney, said that the former governor’s jobs-oriented message should play well on Tuesday.

“The governor just needs to keep doing what he’s doing now, just talking to people about jobs,” Maynard said at a table at Crews Inn, overlooking the water in Anchor Bay. “And whether you’re the pauper on the street or the man in the mansion or you’re someone in between -- when you talk about jobs, you’re speaking everybody’s language.”

Both candidates have courted these Regan Democrats in their own ways. And they’ve both succeeded and failed, to some extent.

Santorum’s speeches are winding and sometimes disorganized, evinced by his Friday evening address in Lincoln Park. The speech was billed as a major address to outline a 10-point plan for his first 100 days as president, but these points became garbled, leaving some searching for crux of his message.

And Romney has reminded these middle class voters of his immense wealth by noting that his wife owns two Cadillacs during  a Friday economic speech at Ford Field, the home of the Detroit Lions. And during a trip Sunday to the Daytona 500, meant to emphasize his love for cars, Romney said he has “great friends who are NASCAR team owners."

The county has changed in a number of ways since Regan was president. Its population has grown, but the average age of the population has also risen. It’s a much more diverse place, too, driven in part by Detroiters leaving the city.

But Macomb’s most defining characteristic remains its economy. The unemployment rate stood at 9.6 percent at the end of 2011, but that actually marked a decline from the recent height of a startling 17.3 percent jobless rate in June of 2009, at the height of the troubles in the auto industry. The struggles of automakers have contributed in part to a decline in household incomes over the last decade.

“When I did move over here, it was an interesting culture of people who were very attached to the auto industry -- a well-established middle class,” said Kathy Vosburg, the first Republican chairwoman of the Macomb County Board of Commissioners. “Many times they had different views and more independent thinking. And I think a lot of that has to do with Macomb County being a bellwether.”

John Makely / msnbc.com

Penny and James Phelan drive through Macomb county placing several Rick Santorum signs near busy intersections before the Michigan primary election on tuesday.

That was true in the Republican primary of 2008, when Romney won 45 percent of the vote in Macomb on the strength of a message focused on his roots in the area, and a plea for assistance from the federal government. McCain won 25 percent of the county, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee took 13 percent of the primary vote.

No polling has been conducted specifically of Macomb leading into Tuesday’s primary, though an EPIC/MRA survey last week found that Romney led in the three combined counties of Macomb, Oakland (a more liberal suburb) and Wayne (which encompasses Detroit).

Given Romney’s built-in advantages, the former Massachusetts governor’s campaign should be alarmed if they start seeing signs of Santorum inroads during returns tomorrow night.

“If you see Santorum coming in Macomb or Oakland getting above 30 percent, that should be something to worry the Romney folks,” said Bernie Porn, the president of EPIC/MRA.

“What would surprise me is if anyone wins by more than 5 or 6 percent,” said state Rep. Pete Lund, Republicans’ majority whip in the state House who represents part of Macomb.

Republican State Sen. Jack Brandenburg , who voted for Santorum but has not publicly endorsed in the race, said things look good for the former Pennsylvania senator.

“In the Republican primary, between Romney and Santorum, it’s going to go down to what faction gets their people out to vote. In Macomb County, I think the conservative element will come out strong -- and that bodes well for Rick Santorum,” he said, cautioning, “Romney has a lot of dough and a tremendous amount of resources.”

Both Santorum and Romney are stumping throughout the state of Michigan in the closing hours of the campaign to make their closing argument. Romney, speaking Monday morning in Rockford, challenged Santorum to speak more directly about the economy. That follows a weekend in which Santorum hit Romney for not focusing enough on industry in the state.

And come Tuesday’s GOP primary, whichever candidate can best speak to voters on that issue may end up carrying Macomb – and, with it, the rest of the state.

“That’s what Michigan is. It’s manufacturing,” said James Phelan.

LIVONIA, Mich. -- On the day Mitt Romney criticized him for not focusing enough on the economy, Rick Santorum stressed the need for simplifying the tax code, cutting trillions from the budget and building the Keystone pipeline.

Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum often splits his time on the stump between focusing on jobs and social issues.

And while the former Pennsylvania laid out his economic plan to a local Chamber of Commerce here, he also pivoted into the social issues that have come to largely define his campaign.

"The separation of church and state that our founders believed in, which is what I just described, has now been turned on its head," he said. "And now, it’s the church, people of faith, who have no right to come to the public square and express their points of view, or practice their faith outside of their church."

That was received with applause from the 300 supporters in attendance.

"All reporters in the back, they say, 'Oh there’s Santorum talking about social issues again,'" he said. "No, I’m talking about freedom.
I’m talking about government imposing themselves on your lives."

The balance between talking about the economy -- which will likely be the most important issue in the Novemeber election -- and social issues has been a delicate one for the Santorum campaign. The candidate often splits his time on the stump between focusing on jobs and focusing on the issues of abortion, the family, and religious freedoms. Now, in a state hit particularly hard by the recession, the former Massachusetts governor is trying to exploit it as a weakness in his rival.

Stumping in Rockford, MI, earlier in the morning, Romney said of Santorum, "It's time for him to really focus on the economy."

Responding to Romney's critique, Santorum told reporters, "Tell him to watch my speech."

On the eve of the Michigan and Arizona primaries, the Romney campaign unveiled a new line of attacks against Santorum, building off his "sometimes you take one for the team" defense of earmarking during last week's debate. Santorum did not use his speech to defend his fiscal record in Congress, but instead split time between portraying himself as a consistent conservative and  introducing his plan to rebuild America's manufacturing and energy industries.

"This is a tax plan that isn't conforming to any type of school of economics, because America has its own destiny," Santorum said. "We don't fit into a school. We do our own; we cut our own path; we're Americans; we can do things different, and we can be successful in doing it. Our plan is bold. It doesn't just, you know, take an existing tax code and play around with it in 59 or 69 or 89 different tweaks."

Last year Romney unveiled a 59-point economic plan.

Santorum's first of three stops throughout the Wolverine State compliments an op-ed he in today's Wall Street Journal outlining the major tenants of his plan.

"Capitalism is painful," he said. "We all know markets are painful sometimes. When people dont keep up, when people do things that the market doesn't like, a lot of people suffer. They suffer more if you try to rig the game. I've been consistent on that. I can go after President Obama on that. No one else can in this race can."

While he didn't mention him by name, President Obama, used his speech in front of the National Governor's Association to respond to former Sen. Rick Santorum's assertion that the President is a "snob" for encouraging all students to attend college.

Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

President Obama encouraged the National Governors Association to "invest more in education."

"When I speak about higher education we're not just talking about a four-year degree," the president said. "We're talking about somebody going to a community college and getting trained ... for that manufacturing job that now is requiring somebody walking through the door handling a million-dollar piece of equipment."

He continued, "They can't go in there unless they've got some basic training beyond what they received in high school."

This past weekend, Santorum derided the president for his college-affordability initiatives. "Obama says he wants everyone to go to college, what a snob," the Republican presidential candidate boasted.

Obama also encouraged the governors to "invest more in education," using almost all of his speech to push the idea that a more successful American education system will lead to a better economic situation in the long run.

Today's remarks in the State Dining Room were in front of the nation's governors as part of the National Governors Association's winter meeting. All of the governors were invited, but the White House is not releasing the formal list of attendees. Spotted at one GOP power player table: Govs. Susana Martinez (R-NM), Chris Christie (R-NJ), Jan Brewer (R-AZ), Bobby Jindal (R-LA), and Nikki Haley (R-SC) sitting and chatting.

If you're predicting who will win tomorrow's crucial Michigan primary, the trend of this GOP presidential contest -- forget about the polling and campaign body language -- points to an obvious choice.

Mitt Romney.

While the Republican nominating season has been one of the wildest and most unpredictable in memory, there has been a pretty clear pattern since the Iowa caucuses back in early January: Just when it looks like Romney is about pull away with the nomination, he loses.

And just when it appears that his back is against the wall and when he needs a win, he does.

So after his apparent win after Iowa and decisive victory in New Hampshire, it seemed that he was about to wrap up the GOP nomination, and that the general election was about to commence. Indeed, no non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate had won BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire.

But then we discovered he didn't win Iowa after all (Rick Santorum did), and then Newt Gingrich beat him by double digits in South Carolina.

And when it looked like his candidacy was on the ropes -- if Gingrich beat him in Florida -- Romney easily won in Florida. Then he won Nevada, too.

Once again, some pundits proclaimed Romney was on his way to becoming the inevitable nominee. And guess what: He lost the next contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri to Santorum.

Those three races fueled Santorum's momentum, with some polling showing the possibility that Santorum could beat Romney in his old backyard of Michigan, jeopardizing the former Massachusetts governor's chances of winning the GOP nomination.

Yet if Romney wins in Michigan -- as well as Arizona -- tomorrow night, the trend will continue: He'll win after being backed into a corner.

(And then, if the trend continues, perhaps we'll see Romney underperform in next week's Super Tuesday contests.)

There's been another pattern for Romney: His gaffes and unforced errors have often come before -- or just after -- some of his biggest victories. So it was right before his victory in New Hampshire when he uttered the words "I like being able to fire people" (in the context of talking about health insurers).

Then it was after his victory in Florida when he said, "I am not concerned about the very poor."

And if he ends up winning tomorrow in Michigan, his recent comments about his wife owning two Cadillacs and having "some friends who are NASCAR team owners" could very well shape the upcoming Super Tuesday contests next week.

Pro-Rick Santorum robo calls, using the National Rifle Association's name, are running in Michigan ahead of tomorrow's primary, an NRA member in Michigan emails First Read.

The call compares Santorum and Romney's NRA records, urges members to vote for Santorum, and uses Romney's own words against him.

But the NRA, which hasn't endorsed a candidate, says it's not running the calls.

"We're not doing anything," said Andrew Arulanandam, director of Public Affairs for NRA-ILA, or Institute for Legislative Action. "Our position is anyone would be better than Barack Obama. It's absolutely wrong. We are not paying for anything. We're not spending one cent. That is not us -- completely, unequivocally not us."

Arulanandam said there's no way a campaign or someone supporting a campaign, could have gotten their member list. But someone could get another list, like a hunting-license list, that could have some overlap.

The call tells members that if they care about their right to own a gun, then this message is critical. It notes that Santorum received an A-plus rating from the NRA and calls him a a friend of sportsmen and hunters. Romney, on the other hand, is derided as a disaster for gun owners and uses his own words against him.

"I don't line up with the NRA," Romney is heard saying, replaying his comments from his 1994 Senate bid.

Then, the ad urges Michigan residents not to vote for a moderate from Massachusetts and not to let him destroy gun rights and then plays the Romney quote again.

ROCKFORD, Mich. -- In the final hours before Michiganders head to the polls, Mitt Romney is debuting a new argument against his chief rival Rick Santorum, that sounds a lot like his old arguments against Barack Obama.

"Sen. Santorum is a nice guy, but he’s never had a job in the private sector," Romney said. "He’s worked as a lobbyist and worked as an elected official, and that’s fine, but if the issue of the day is the economy, I think to create jobs it helps to have a guy as president who's had a job, and I have."

(Santorum was not a registered lobbyist. He did, however, work as a consultant for a D.C. lobbying firm, though he only made $65,000 from the group in 2010 and half of 2011.)

Romney has long described President Obama as a "nice guy" without the necessary experience to get the economy going again.

Spurring the economic conversation, an op-ed piece by Santorum in the Wall Street Journal this morning, in which he attacked Romney's new economic plan as emblematic of a "last-minute conversion," and "just more Obama-style class warfare."

This morning, Romney seemed to welcome the attack as an opportunity to refocus the conversation here to the economy -- his political bread and butter.

"I saw this morning that Sen. Santorum wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal," Romney said. "I’m glad to see that. He wrote a piece in there about the economy and tax policy and regulatory policy. I’m glad he recognizes this is going to be a campaign about the economy. It’s time for him to really focus on the economy and for you to all say, 'OK, if the economy is going to be the issue we focus on who has the experience to actually get this economy going again?'"

The possibility of a realignment around economic issues comes after days of back-and-forth attacks between Romney and Santorum who most polls show locked in a dead heat in Michigan. And after a weekend in which Santorum, once again, seemed to be fighting the culture wars.

Today, the battle line seemed to be drawn over whose economic plan could be the boldest, with Romney staking an outsider claim in language seemingly borrowed from his famously verbose rival, Newt Gingrich.

"We need dramatic change, fundamental change in Washington," Romney said. "We have to say we’re going to dramatically change the structure of Washington, send whole host of programs back to states where they can be better run, get rid of some programs. That’s not going to happen by someone who is a creature of Washington, someone who’s spent their life in Washington.”

Gerald Herbert / AP

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks at a campaign rally in Rockford, Mich., Monday, Feb. 27, 2012.

High stakes in tomorrow’s Michigan GOP primary… A rough last 72 hours for both Santorum and Romney: Santorum the culture warrior, and Romney steps in it -- again… Even Romney’s supporters are now making excuses for him… Brewer endorses Romney, while Santorum gets Secret Service protection… A tale of two VERY different national polls… And polling two Super Tuesday states.

*** High stakes: This is shaping up to be a significant week in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. If Mitt Romney wins tomorrow’s Michigan primary (even by a point), he will remain on track to becoming his party’s nominee. It still won’t be easy, he still will have a challenge in next week’s Super Tuesday contests, and he still continues to create problems for himself (see below). But a win in Michigan means he’ll probably be President Obama’s general-election opponent in November. (How formidable he’ll be against Obama is an entirely different question.) Yet a loss in Michigan would be DEVASTATING to his candidacy, given all of his advantages in the state and given all the mistakes Rick Santorum has made in the last several days. More importantly, a loss in Michigan would send the GOP establishment into a panic, would lay the groundwork for another candidacy, and would introduce chaos in the Republican race beyond anything we’ve seen yet. Bottom line: A lot is riding on tomorrow’s outcome in Michigan. And for what it’s worth, it does appear Romney is on the right track.

*** Santorum the culture warrior: As it turns out, both Romney and Santorum have had a rough last 72 hours heading into tomorrow’s primaries in Michigan and Arizona. We’ll start first with Santorum, who just can’t seem to stay on message and keeps finding himself entering the culture wars. The Washington Post: “In back-to-back speeches over the weekend, the candidate described President Obama as ‘a snob’ for focusing on the importance of a college education and disparaged the idea of a separation between church and state by attacking President John F. Kennedy, who made it a key point in his 1960 campaign.” We know these things won’t help him in a general-election contest. The only question is whether they hurt him with the GOP base he’s trying to court. These issues are catnip for the press corps, and Santorum loves to litigate them; in fact, while he claims to be the one wanting to focus on economic issues, nothing animates him more as a candidate than debating the culture wars. That passion comes through and may actually help him with SOME segments of the GOP electorate but it clearly turns off others.

*** Romney steps in it – again: As for Romney, his campaign was ridiculed for giving a speech to 1,200 folks in a 65,000-seat football stadium on Friday. Then, in that speech, the candidate admitted -- unprompted -- that his wife owns two Cadillacs in addition to the cars he owns. And then yesterday, he was asked at the Daytona 500 if he follows the sport. His answer, per the AP: "Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans. But I have some friends who are NASCAR team owners." Ouch. (In fairness, the NASCAR flub is not nearly as bad as the Cadillac one, but it does feed a bad narrative for him.) On FOX yesterday, Romney responded to criticism that comments like his “Cadillacs” one makes him seem out of touch. “If people think there’s something wrong with being successful in America, then they better vote for the other guy,” he said. “Because I’ve been extraordinarily successful, and I want to use that success and that know-how to help the American people.” But the problems his gaffes present go beyond his wealth. They 1) make it seem like he can’t relate to average Americans, and 2) underscore that his economic policies benefit the wealthy more than the middle class. In 1992 during a down economy, Bill Clinton was able to beat George H.W. Bush in large part because he convinced voters he could feel their pain. But could the same be said of Romney?

*** With friends like these… : Already, people are beginning to make excuses for Romney. Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) says that Romney has a “CEO” problem. "I think some people look at him as a CEO," McDonnell told reporters during the National Governors Association meeting in DC, per the L.A. Times. "People right now want to have somebody that truly just feels their pain and empathizes with what they're going through in this horrible, horrible economy." And on “Meet the Press” yesterday, conservative columnist Kathleen Parker put it another way: He’s a good doctor but with poor bedside manners. These two are either folks who have endorsed Romney or who are sympathetic to his candidacy, and this is the best they can come up with? We’ll make a final point about Romney: Every presidential candidate does what it takes to win, but the successful ones don’t LOOK like they’re doing it. But for Romney, there has been no subtlety to his ambition; he wants this in the worst way and he’s going about winning it in, well, “the worst way” he could be winning it (if he indeed ends up winning it).

*** Brewer endorses Romney, Santorum gets Secret Service protection: Over the weekend however, Romney did get this good news: He picked up an endorsement from Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) during her appearance on “Meet the Press” yesterday. “I have decided that I am going to publicly endorse Mitt Romney. I think he's the man that can carry the day,” Brewer said, per MSNBC.com’s Mike O’Brien. “I think Mitt is by far the person who can go in and win.” Meanwhile, NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell reported yesterday Santorum will get Secret Service protection starting today. 

*** A tale of two polls: There are two polls out today that tell VERY DIFFERENT stories. A Politico/GW/Battleground poll has Obama’s approval rating at 53%, and it shows him topping both Romney (53%-43%) and Santorum (53%-42%). But a new USA Today/Gallup survey has Obama and Romney tied at 47% each, and with Romney edging Obama in the swing states, 48%-46%. We’ll say this: Either Gallup is seeing something that no one else is seeing right now (NBC/WSJ, WaPo/ABC, NYT/CBS), or its methodology is understating Obama’s support and inflating the GOP’s. This isn’t the first time this cycle where Gallup has looked different from the other major national polls.

*** Polling the Super Tuesday states: Meanwhile, looking ahead to Super Tuesday, a new Vanderbilt/Princeton Survey poll shows Santorum leading Romney among registered GOP voters in Tennessee 33%-17%, with Paul at 13% and Gingrich just at 10%. That’s something to watch for next week: How does Santorum fare in the southern states (TN, OK, GA), and how does Gingrich fare? And in another Super Tuesday state -- Ohio -- a new Quinnipiac poll shows Santorum leading Romney among likely GOP voters, 36%-29%. Of course, all of these numbers could change depending on how the results of Michigan play tomorrow.

*** On the trail: Almost all of the action is Michigan: Romney holds rallies in Rockford, Albion, and (with special musical guest -- Kid Rock perhaps?) Royal Oak… Santorum hits Livonia, Lansing, and Kalamazoo… And Paul’s in Detroit, East Lansing, and Dearborn… And Gingrich campaigns in Tennessee, where he visits Nashville. 

Countdown to Arizona and Michigan primaries: 1 day
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 8 days
Countdown to Election Day: 253 days

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*** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) on what all the governors had to say this weekend and what he’s hearing from folks in his state about the economy… NBC’s Atia Abawi and Andrea Mitchell on the continuing violence in Afghanistan… One of us (!!!) with more on the new NBC News 2012 battleground map updates… More 2012 headlines with The Washington Post’s Dan Balz, National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru and Jill Zuckman.

*** Monday's "Jansing & Co." line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Romney supporter Tim Pawlenty, the New York Times’ Charles Blow, political scientist Tom Schaller, Democracy 21’s Fred Wertheimer, and the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein.

*** Monday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Santorum senior strategist John Brabender, Meghan McCain, Karen Finney, Susan Del Percio & Politico’s Charles Mahtesian.

*** Monday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include The Nation’s Ari Melber, former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, NBCLatino.com’s Alicia Menendez, New York Times Magazine Editor Hugo Lindgren, Santorum spokeswoman Alice Stewart, pro-Obama Super PAC head Bill Burton, and former State Department Spokesman P.J. Crowley

*** Monday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Michael Smerconish, Inside Michigan Politics’ Bill Ballenger, The Hill’s AB Stoddard, Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy, Dem Rep. Ed Markey, and Time magazine’s Jim Frederick.

“Day by day, event by event, Michigan's critical primary on Tuesday is crystallizing the dramatic differences between Romney and Santorum” the AP’s Hunt writes. “The contrasts are both stylistic and substantive, and they illustrate why Romney, a multimillionaire business executive and a Mormon, is suddenly struggling in the presidential primary in the state where he was born and raised as he runs against Santorum, a strict Catholic who wears sweater vests and highlights his background as the senator from another suffering manufacturing state, Pennsylvania.”

“Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum furiously dueled Sunday ahead of a watershed contest in Romney’s home state that will reshape the contours of the Republican Party’s quest to unseat President Obama,” the New York Daily News writes. (By the way, check out the photo in the story of Romney at Daytona with a car behind him that says “Rick Santorum” on it.)

And despite religious voters’ crucial role in Republican primaries, “Romney hasn't appeared at or held a public event at a church since he announced his bid for president in June, though he has attended Sunday services -- joining a Mormon congregation in West Des Moines the weekend before the Iowa caucuses, for example. He focuses on his general economic message instead.”

“Before previous contests he’s lost, Romney’s handlers have tried to lower expectations. But he sounded more confident Sunday of turning back Santorum’s challenge in Michigan, where Romney grew up, son of a GOP political icon,” the Daily News continues.

“Gentlemen, start your engines. GOP rivals Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are neck-and-neck coming into tomorrow’s primary in Michigan, yet spent yesterday courting conservative voters at the washed-out Daytona 500 in Florida,” the New York Post writes.

No apologies… (Where’s Jon Huntsman when you need him…) “After two US military advisers were killed inside Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry, and others have been wounded in demonstrations over the apparently unintentional burning of Korans by Americans, the top contenders in the Republican presidential race continue to say President Obama was wrong to apologize for the burning,” the Boston Globe writes.

Mitt Romney on Fox News Sunday: “I think for a lot of people, this sticks in their throat. The idea that we’re there, having lost thousands of individuals to casualty and death -- we’ve made an enormous contribution there to help the people there achieve freedom. For us to be apologizing at a time like this is something that is very difficult for the American people to countenance.”

On Meet the Press, Santorum said Karzai should apologize for Afghani overreaction.

Roll Call’s Drucker: “As the volatile Republican primary drags on, party operatives are growing concerned that their presidential nominee could be woefully unprepared to wage a national campaign against President Barack Obama.”

To that point, The Hill’s Joseph writes, “Republicans are weighing a change to the party’s presidential primary rules amid fears this year’s prolonged nomination process is hurting the GOP’s chances of retaking the White House.”

ROMNEY: The Boston Globe: “[A] loss for Romney in his native state would be a crippling blow, with only a week to recover before Super Tuesday’s 11-state blitz on March 6.”

The Hill’s headline: “Michigan tipping point: Primary becomes referendum on Romney.” From the story: “The most important contest of the Republican nomination battle is just 24 hours away, with the fight for Michigan seen as pivotal in determining the party’s nominee.”

Romney again said people could vote for someone else… “Two days after Romney told Michigan voters that he drives a Mustang and a Chevy pick-up truck and his wife drives ‘a couple of Cadillacs,’ Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace asked Romney if he understands why voters see him as out of touch,” the Boston Globe writes. “Romney responded that he and Ann have cars in California and in Boston – both places where the Romneys have homes. ‘If people think there’s something wrong with being successful in America, then they’d better vote for the other guy,’ Romney said. ‘Because I’ve been extraordinarily successful, and I want to use that success and that know-how to help the American people.’”

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer endorsed Romney on Meet the Press.

SANTORUM: “Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who has made his conservative stance on religious and social issues one of the centerpieces of his Republican presidential campaign, today questioned the idea of a complete separation of church and state,” the Boston Globe says. “Santorum stood by comments he made last year when he said after reading President John F. Kennedy’s famous 1960 speech about the separation of church and state, ‘I almost threw up.’”

The New York Daily News: “Rick Santorum: JFK's promise to keep Pope out of politics 'makes me want to throw up.’” Here’s what he said: “I don’t believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute. To say that people of faith have no role in the public square? You bet that makes me want to throw up.”

Here’s this damning headline on a Thomas DeFrank column: “Rick Santorum is not suitable to take on Obama.” From the column: “There’s much to admire about Santorum, starting with faith and family. He’s been indefatigable on the campaign trail, persevering as critics mocked his prospects and flourishing on a shoestring budget as bigger names blew themselves out of contention. He’s smart, resourceful and committed, with a compelling personal story as well.” But: “Santorum exhibited the oratorical indiscipline well known to reporters who cover his campaign events. His rambling is reminiscent of Hubert Humphrey and Jack Kemp, among others, who couldn’t stop gabbing, to their detriment as candidates. … Unless an incumbent is so detested anyone else is preferable, voters need to be sure the alternative is capable of being President. Santorum seems more suited as an undersecretary of commerce, not leader of the free world.”

Santorum defended calling President Obama a “snob” for wanting everyone to go to college, but also seemed to backtrack a bit on “Meet the Press”: "What I've said is I want everyone to have the opportunity to go to college, or whatever other higher training skills," he said. "But it doesn't mean you have to go to a four-year college degree... I think everyone should have the opportunity. It's about what's best for you."

Santorum had said: "President Obama once said he wants everybody in America to go to college. What a snob. … I understand why [Obama] wants you to go to college. He wants to remake you in his image."

But he still leads in Ohio. Political Wire: “A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows Rick Santorum leading the GOP presidential field with 36% of likely Republican primary voters, followed by Mitt Romney at 29%, Newt Gingrich at 17% and Ron Paul at 11%.”

“American officials sought to reassure both Afghanistan’s government and a domestic audience on Sunday that the United States remained committed to the war after the weekend killing of two American military officers inside the Afghan Interior Ministry and days of deadly anti-American protests,” the New York Times says. “But behind the public pronouncements, American officials described a growing concern, even at the highest levels of the Obama administration and Pentagon, about the challenges of pulling off a troop withdrawal in Afghanistan that hinges on the close mentoring and training of army and police forces.”

“The nation's governors are going to the White House on Monday to discuss ways to bolster job growth and improve their partnerships with the federal government,” AP writes. “The gathering is scheduled for the final day of the National Governors Association winter meeting. Governors dined with President Barack Obama at a black tie dinner Sunday, where he pledged to work more closely with them in the coming months.”

The Hill wraps Obama’s NGA comments.

ARIZONA: “Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) does not intend to appear before a Senate immigration panel to defend her support of the state’s controversial and far-reaching anti-illegal immigration law,” Roll Call writes. Brewer also didn’t attend last night’s White House dinner for the nation’s sitting governors. “Brewer, whose finger-pointing confrontation with Obama last month has become a symbol for political polarization, told NBC's Meet the Press that she has prior engagements. When NBC's David Gregory asked ‘are you showing disrespect for the office of the president?’ Brewer replied: ‘Well, I hope that it isn't disrespect.’ ‘I would not disrespect the president of the United States,’ Brewer said. ‘I have other commitments.’”

MASSACHUSETTS: “Former Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.) has asked Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) to pull a radio ad off the air that invokes the name of his late father, former Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.). But Brown's campaign says he won't oblige,” The Hill writes.

MISSOURI: Claire McCaskill began running her first ad Thursday. It includes the tag line, “Claire says, ‘Make it in Missoura.’” Roll Call has more.

NEW YORK: The cover of the New York Daily News Sunday is about Staten Island Rep. Michael Grimm with the headline: “The crook and the pol.” The story’s lede: “Staten Island  Rep. Michael Grimm urged a federal judge to spare a New York-based developer with three bribery-related convictions from serving a day in prison, the Daily News has learned. Grimm sought leniency for Thomas Kontogiannis in 2008, before Grimm entered Congress as a Republican and after he had left a career as an FBI agent. Kontogiannis then faced sentencing on his third conviction — for helping funnel $1 million in bribe money to former Rep. Randy (Duke) Cunningham (R-Calif).”

Grimm said in a written statement: “I can say unequivocally that I performed all such duties — including interactions with witnesses, cooperators and informants — in full conformance with FBI and (Justice Department) policies and applicable law. The reality is that undercover officers and agents, as I was, have to work with criminals and deal with bad people regularly in the course of effectively investigating and ultimately enforcing the law.”