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  • 2012: Wolverine!

    “Once thought to be an easy win for native son Mitt Romney, the Michigan primary has instead turned into one of the stiffest tests for the Republican presidential front-runner — and an unexpected opportunity for the surging campaign of Rick Santorum,” the Washington Post says.

    Politico: Two weeks before the increasingly pivotal showdown in Romney’s native state, his leading Michigan supporters are exuding confidence that he’ll not only win, but win easily and halt Santorum’s momentum in the process. Romney’s national campaign isn’t leaving that to chance: It has deployed top operatives to the state and on Tuesday reserved nearly $1.3 million in airtime in the runup to the Feb. 28 primary, according to a media-buying source. The pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future is also putting big bucks behind a new negative ad on Santorum that starts Wednesday.”

    The latest from a New York Times/CBS poll: “Their combative contest remains in flux, with former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania now in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney after Mr. Santorum’s victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Mr. Santorum’s sharp rise in the polls underscores some of Mr. Romney’s perceived weaknesses, with voters saying that Mr. Santorum shares their values and that they connect to his blue-collar economic message.” 

    A CNN poll finds “Mitt Romney's overall favorable ratings have dropped, while Rick Santorum's standing has jumped among Republicans.” Among all Americans: Romney has hit a net-low of 34%/54%; Santorum is 32%/38%; Gingrich is at a low of 25%/63; Paul, the only GOP contender who is a net-positive, is at a high of 42%/36%. Among Republicans, Romney has dropped 13 points in a month. He stands at 54%/40%, down from 67%/25%; Santorum, on the other hand, is now viewed more favorably than any GOP candidate at 56%/23%, up from 49%/21% last month; Gingrich is a net-negative for the first time -- 46%/47% -- his worst score of the campaign; Paul is 51%/34%.

    President Obama, by contrast, is 53%/45% among all voters. (Here’s the full poll.)

    GINGRICH: A new web video from Gingrich asserts that this year voters will decide whether “to decisively repudiate an 80 year drift to the left: a drift in our newsrooms; a drift in our colleges and universities; a drift with our judges; and a drift among elected politicians.” To that, the Boston Globe writes: “Conservative Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts must be shocked to hear that.” And: “[T]he problem, for a historian like Gingrich, is history. Gingrich’s statement, said Jeffrey Berry, professor of American politics at Tufts University, is ‘sloppy thinking.’”

    “Gingrich has uttered the term ‘Lean Six Sigma’ at least 28 times since August in campaign appearances, debates and media interviews, a review of transcripts and news accounts shows,” Bloomberg writes. “At the same time, Mike George, the investor who has written six books on Lean Six Sigma, paid for mailings, handouts and automated phone calls backing Gingrich in the Iowa caucuses and South Carolina primary last month. George’s financial support comes through a political action committee, Strong America Now, which he created and solely funds. The dynamic illustrates a new way for wealthy individuals to leverage the high visibility of a presidential election as a public-relations tool for a specific company, product or message.”

    For your Valentine’s Day, um, pleasure? The New York Daily News’ headline: “Newt Gingrich reveals sexy Valentine’s Day plans for wife Callista while stumping in California.” He said: "All I can promise is that I believe she will be quite happy. I think for the first time in a while we'll have a private dinner and just hopefully exchange gifts and, you know reconnect a little bit.” Gingrich then raised his arms in the air to wave off further questions, quickly adding, "No more details!"

    ROMNEY: “Struggling to maintain his frontrunner status, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is using his fundraising prowess to try to boost his image. A super PAC supporting Romney is going on the air with ads in eight states,” the Boston Globe writes. “The Restore our Future super PAC is spending $1.5 million in advertising in states that will hold primaries in February and March. The new wave of spending could serve to combat the growing popularity of former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who is now running head to head with Romney in national polls, propelled by support from conservative and Tea Party voters.”

    “For Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, Michigan may be their political Gettysburg. If Romney loses in his native state, where his father was governor, it would be a defeat from which he might not recover,” Bloomberg writes. “The makeup of the Republican electorate, which is likely to be one-third Catholic and opposed to abortion, will help Santorum offset the allegiance Romney draws from supporters who delivered his 2008 presidential primary win over John McCain.”

    A Romney adviser tipped the campaign’s hand to Ben Smith that they’re now going to go negative on Santorum on two fronts: (1) Comparing him to Barack Obama in that he has no experience running anything, and (2) To again challenge his Washington experience. And they think that will trigger a response in which Santorum will quote “whine like crazy.”

    "The man who oversaw the rescue of General Motors and Chrysler said Tuesday that if Mitt Romney believes the companies would have survived without government financing in 2008 and 2009, he doesn't understand how bad the financial crash -- and the tightening of credit markets -- was at the time," writes the Detroit Free Press. "Steven Rattner, a Democratic supporter who ran a private investment firm before coming to Washington to help rescue GM and Chrysler, told the Free Press in an interview Tuesday that Romney's position on the so-called bailout is "ridiculous ... a complete denial of the facts."

    Team Obama got the headline it wanted in the Detroit News with this write up of the Democratic response to Romney's op-ed in the paper yesterday: "Romney's auto bailout stand slammed."

    “A Smart Politics review of the 19 Republican presidential debates finds that Mitt Romney has made more references about the need to address the problems of the middle class (41) than the remainder of the GOP field combined (31),” the University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics blog writes. That’s four times as many as the next candidate. Still, Romney’s tax plan cuts taxes more – even proportionately – for the rich than the middle class. The wealthiest would get a $146,000 cut, while those making between $50,000 and $75,000 a year would get $249, according to the Tax Policy Center.

    SANTORUM: He has a response ad out against Romney, showing a fake Romney running from pillar to pillar (like in paintball) firing a gun loaded with mud, trying to hit a Santorum cut out. At the end, it backfires and gets on Romney’s white shirt.

    Christian Heinze: “Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) has made a lot of gains since his sweep of Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri last week, but he does have a vulnerability that’s just starting to emerge — his lack of appeal to women.”

    How Santorum played in Boise, from the Idaho Press-Tribune: "He began his speech with an appeal to Idaho voters, and discussed his family values. After the audience applauded Santorum for his seven children, he joked that reaction to that in New York City was more of a gasp than applause."

    The scrutiny cometh… “Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum told CNN last week he would release his tax returns "in the next couple days," but five days later he hasn't released them,” USA Today writes.

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  • Congress: A tentative deal

    “Top negotiators today have a tentative deal to extend the payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits and a fix to Medicare doctors’ payments, and Congressional leaders began to speak in terms of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ an agreement would be reached,” Roll Call reports, adding, “Weary from protracted floor fights and a campaign by President Barack Obama against Capitol Hill dysfunction, House Republicans on Monday withdrew their demands to fully pay for the $100 billion payroll tax holiday. That gave new oxygen to House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) and Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) to craft the details of a deal that required them only to offset the cost of the “doc fix” and jobless benefits.”

    “Top congressional negotiators said Tuesday that they were ‘very close’ to reaching a major deal on a payroll tax cut package that would hand President Obama an early election-year victory,” The Hill writes.

    “Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) publicly distanced himself from House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Tuesday, the latest twist in a relationship put to the test in recent weeks,” The Hill reports. “McConnell declined to endorse a proposal announced by Boehner on Monday to extend the payroll tax holiday without paying for it. The Kentucky senator said last week the payroll tax cut must be offset, only to find himself days later being asked about Boehner’s shift, which would add about $100 billion to the deficit over 10 months.”

  • Obama agenda: Heading to Wisconsin

    “First stop this afternoon is Milwaukee, Wis., where Obama will tour Master Lock Company, the world's largest manufacturer of padlocks,” USA Today writes. “The president plans to promote the idea of ‘in-sourcing,’ bringing jobs back from overseas. … Then it's off to Los Angeles, Cal., where Obama headlines a pair of campaign fundraisers. Over the next two days, Obama travels to San Francisco and Seattle for both presidential and campaign events.”

    “President Barack Obama will be tapping into Hollywood money in his first California fundraising trip since anti-piracy legislation backed by the film industry was scuttled in Congress,” Bloomberg writes. “Over the next three days Obama is seeking to raise more than $8 million for his re-election, the bulk of it coming from six fundraisers in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Corona Del Mar, California, including one event co-hosted by comedian Will Ferrell. He also plans to raise money in Washington state. Californians have given more to the president’s campaign than donors from any other state, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.”

    “The White House on Tuesday threatened to veto a wide-ranging transportation package from House Republicans,” The Hill writes. “The administration raised concerns about a provision to approve the Keystone XL pipeline, and argued the legislation’s funding for roads and bridges is inadequate.” The transportation bill is also where the contraception amendment might be placed.

  • More 2012: Iowa all over again?

    GEORGIA: The biggest pro-Romney SuperPAC is up on the air in Gingrich's home state, writes the Atlanta Journal Constitution. "The first flight of primary campaign commercials stations have anticipated for weeks hits the air today on four Atlanta TV stations and across the state as the Super PAC supporting Mitt Romney, Restore Our Future, has bought about $100,000 worth of air time through next Tuesday ... "strategists are still trying to figure out if it means former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in for a fight in his old home state on the scale of South Carolina and Florida -- where campaigns and Super PACs spent $30 million on primary advertising, most of it attack ads – and whether the Super PAC that has largely fueled his primary run, Winning Our Future, will strike back, and when."

    MAINE: “Pressure is mounting on the Maine Republican Party to reconsider its weekend declaration that Mitt Romney won the state’s caucuses, at least until all votes have been counted,” the Bangor Daily News reports, adding, “[A] review of the town-by-town results released Saturday by the Maine GOP suggests that some communities that had caucused prior to Feb. 11 were not counted. Nearly all Waldo County towns held caucuses on Feb. 4 but those towns were blank in the results released by the state party. Additionally, Waterville held its caucuses ahead of time but were not included in the results.” In all, some 170 towns and cities didn’t have their votes recorded. Romney beat Paul by less than 200 votes.

    TENNESSEE: Early voting starts today in Tennessee, which holds its primary on Super Tuesday, March 6.

    TEXAS: "The chances of Texas voters having much influence in the Republican presidential race faded Tuesday after a panel of federal judges acknowledged the state’s deep divisions over political maps had made it nearly impossible to preserve an April primary," writes the AP.

  • Gingrich says Santorum 'completely misunderstands' modern warfare

    Evan Vucci / AP

    Republican presidential candidate and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich shakes hands during a campaign stop Tuesday at the Tulare World Ag Expo in Tulare, Calif.

     

    TULARE, CA – Newt Gingrich criticized Republican rival Rick Santorum on Tuesday afternoon for his “complete misunderstanding of modern warfare” over the former Pennsylvania senator’s remarks on women in combat.

    Santorum on Thursday said he had “concerns about women in frontline combat.”

    “I think that could be a very compromising situation … where people naturally, you know, may do things that may not be in the interests of the mission because of other types of emotions that are involved,” Santorum told CNN’s John King.


    Gingrich fired back at Santorum, calling his credentials to be commander in chief into question during a press availability at the Tulare World Ag expo during his four-day swing in California.

    “We should be very proud of the men and women who put on the American uniform and risk their lives in order to protect this country,” Gingrich told reporters. “I just think that Rick completely misunderstands the nature of modern warfare by his comments.”

    The former House speaker, who during many campaign speeches refers to himself as a former “Army brat,” said he believes no matter where you are wearing the U.S. military uniform, you are in combat – something Santorum should understand.

     “Whatever your technical assignment, whether you’re a truck driver or you’re working with logistics, or you’re a military person, you’re in combat.  And I think that we have to understand that from day one,” Gingrich said.

  • Santorum: Up or down, polls in GOP campaign don't alter my message

    COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho -- Rick Santorum on Tuesday dismissed the significance of new polls showing him surging to the top of the Republican presidential field, maintaining that he did not care about polls when he sat at the bottom of them and does not care about them now that he's in the lead.

    "Two months ago I said don't pay attention to the polls, but now that we're doing well, I'm not going to say, 'Hey, everybody pay attention to the polls,'" Santorum told reporters after addressing a crowd of more than 500 supporters. "Polls come and polls go, we just have to go out and earn it one state at a time and that's what we're doing, we're going one state at a time."

    Three national polls have Santorum leading previous frontrunner Mitt Romney, a bump attributable to his wins in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri one week ago. The campaign has raised nearly $4 million since victories in the three races.

    Idaho becomes the first Super Tuesday state the former Pennsylvania senator is campaigning in. This week he plans to cover plenty of ground: He began Monday in Washington and will move west to Ohio by the weekend.

    His time, which previously almost solely was spent campaigning, now is split between meeting voters publicly and meeting donors privately.

    "Don't pay much attention to the polls. It's helped in one way: It’s helped us in fundraising, which is important as we have to now go compete in the bigger states," Santorum said.

    He's putting some of the money to work in Romney's home state of Michigan, where two television ads began running Tuesday. Both are positive, touting his conservative credentials. But choosing the Wolverine State to buy ad time is a sign that the campaign feels confident of a strong showing in a primary that Romney won in 2008.

    Though mentioning the former Massachusetts governor only a handful of times here, Santorum took some less than subtle jabs at his chief rival. The GOP presidential hopeful said Barack Obama’s health care law is "the issue to center the election around" and there is one candidate -- whom Santorum declined to name -- that will not be able to take the president to task on the topic.

    "Don't go to Massachusetts to get any health care because you're going to have to wait a long time," he joked.

    But speaking to media after the event, Santorum did not mince his words when speaking about Romney. Now surging, he'll find himself running against a better funded campaign that will now go after him. Asked to respond to how he'll deal with the onslaught, Santorum said, "I guess it’s sort of funny that you know the press’ natural reaction is that any time someone challenges Governor Romney, that the governor’s going to go out there and savage that person instead of going out and talking about his record."

    "For Governor Romney, who was doing the same thing at the same time, to now be critical of me is hypocritical. It’s unfortunate that he’s gotten into that game. Where I disagree with Governor Romney I lay out my disagreements, but I don’t lay out hypocritical politics for accusing, going out and lambasting someone for something that I did. That’s the kind of politics I think that people have soured of very, very quickly."

    While he shied away from directly attacking Romney for most of his speech, the same was not true for Obama. Making the 2010 health care bill the president signed into law the linchpin of his argument, Santorum argued that a win by Democrats in this year's election will forever change America.

    "Go in neighborhoods in America today ... what do you find? Where the family has broken down, there is no marriage. When the church has abandoned ship, where community and civic organizations don't exist because there is no civil society, what do you find? You find people holed up in their homes afraid to go outside at night, who look for the government to help sustain them because they have nowhere else to look," he said.

    "That is the future of Barack Obama's America."

    At one point Santorum called out the president for not releasing his academic grades, but Santorum has yet to release his tax returns after promising to for the past two weeks. When asked about it, Santorum said he thought that his tax returns had been released earlier in the day, but said that they should be made available soon.

    From here, Santorum travels to Boise, Idaho, for an evening rally.

  • Obama urges public pressure over tax cut

     

    President Obama called today for renewed public pressure on Congress to pass a yearlong extension of both the tax cut and employment benefits set to expire at the end of February. 

    He also indicated that he thought congressional Republicans’ offer Monday to extend just the payroll tax cut was an encouraging sign but not enough for a final deal. 

    “The good news is over the last couple of days, we've seen some hopeful signs in Congress that they realize that they've got to get this,” Obama said, speaking to an audience of people the White House said had benefited from the payroll tax cut.

    “But as you guys know, you can't take anything for granted here in Washington until my signature is actually on it,” he continued. “Until you see me sign this thing, you've got to keep on speaking up.”

    Encouraging the public to do just that, the White House this morning reprised the December “#40dollars” Twitter campaign in which Americans were encouraged to list ways they could use an extra $40 each paycheck -– the average savings employees saw with the tax cut.

    That show of support, Obama said, helped push Congress to agree to the temporary two-month extension of both measures.

    “Last December, when we had this same fight, your voices made all the difference.  We asked folks to tell what it was like -- what it would be like if they lost $40 out of every one of their paycheck, because we wanted to make sure that people understood this is not just an abstract argument, this is concrete,” he said.

    “Call, tweet, write your congressmen, write your senators. Tell them, do not let up until this thing gets done.”

    And as he did during that original battle with Congress, Obama called this potential extension a “make-or-break moment for the middle class.”

    “We can settle for a country where a few people do really, really well and everybody else struggles just to get by.  Or we can restore an economy where everybody gets a fair shot, and everybody is doing their fair share, and everybody is playing by the same set of rules.”

    While much of his language today was similar to that used during the original fight over the tax cut, he did use a new transportation-based metaphor for economic recovery, moving beyond the imagery of a rescued car that had been driven into a ditch by Republicans.

    The economy, Obama indicated, is on the ascent now, but he has to keep it moving in the right direction.

    “When a plane is finally lifting off the ground, you don't ease up on the throttle. You keep the throttle on full. You keep going. And our plane is up there, but we're not at cruising altitude yet,” he said.

  • Romney’s past performance in the upcoming contests

    As First Thoughts noted yesterday, we're entering a primary schedule that will put the Republican presidential candidates through 18 nominating contests in 15 days (from Feb. 28 – March 13). 

    Below is a review of how those states turned out for Mitt Romney last cycle. For purposes of this article, let's call them SuperTuesdayPlus08

    Some quick stats:
    -- Romney, who dropped out of the GOP race on Feb 7, 2008, competed last cycle in 10 of the 18 states that will have contests between now and March 13, 2012.

    -- Of those 10, he won exactly half: (Michigan, Alaska, Massachusetts, North Dakota, and Wyoming). Two of those five states hold primaries (MA and MI, both where he holds a home state advantage) and three hold caucuses. In fact, OVERALL, Romney only won three *primaries* during the entire ‘08 campaign: MA, MI, and UT -- all states that are home turf for him, in one way or another. 

    -- Of the five SuperTuesdayPlus08 contests Romney lost in 08, Mike Huckabee won three (Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama), and McCain won two (Arizona and Oklahoma) 

    -- Romney's SuperTuesdayPlus08 losses were all in PRIMARY contests.

    -- Of the SuperTuesdayPlus08 contests he lost, he got creamed, losing by an average of 12.2 percentage points below the first-place finisher. 

    -- Of the five he WON, he cleaned up, beating the second place finisher by an average of about 20 points. (But keep in mind that includes three wins in small state caucuses, so the win percentages are a bit exaggerated) 

  • Pelosi appears to back stand-alone payroll tax cut

    In a statement, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi suggested House Democrats will support the stand-alone extension of the payroll tax cut that is not offset with cuts or revenue increases elsewhere. 

    "The House has voted twice overwhelmingly to instruct the Conference Committee to complete all of its work by this Friday, February 17," Pelosi said. "The House Republican leadership plans to bring to the floor a stand-alone payroll tax cut extension bill tomorrow. We have long proposed bringing this tax cut to the floor without payfors and House Democrats will support it so that taxes are not raised on 160 million working Americans."

    Yet Pelosi added that "this should not be a substitute for the work of the conference committee" that is trying to hammer out a compromise.

    And she called on Republicans to cancel the recess scheduled for next week if work is not done to also extend unemployment insurance and the Medicare "doc fix":

    "We continue to call upon the conferees to resolve the remaining issues - extending unemployment benefits and ensuring seniors continue to see their doctors under Medicare - by February 17th. If the conference committee is unable to complete its work on a comprehensive bill by that date, the Republican leadership should cancel the recess and remain in Washington next week. These crucial policies  affect millions of middle class families and seniors and must not expire at the end of this month."

    Meanwhile, in a pen-and-pad session with reporters, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) would not predict how this payroll tax cut extension would play out. He was pleased House Republicans have "retreated" on their position that the tax cut be paid for, and he said Democrats would continue to push for agreement on extending unemployment benefits and the so-called "doc-fix" payments to Medicare doctors.

    Schumer was asked specifically whether the Senate would pass a payroll tax cut extension sent over from the House -- without attaching unemployment insurance and the "doc fix."

    But he wouldn't commit to that, saying that discussions are still taking place among the conference committee, House Republicans, and House Democrats.

  • Romney wrestles with auto bailouts heading into Michigan primary

     

    Mitt Romney is working to stress his Michigan roots and empathy for the state's auto industry as part of a new offensive ahead of the Great Lake State's Feb. 28 primary.

    In a new television ad and an op-ed Tuesday in the Detroit News, Romney reminded Michigan Republicans of his upbringing in the state, while working to better couch his opposition to the 2009 bailouts of General Motors and Chrysler engineered by President Obama.

    "I grew up in Michigan; it was exciting to be here," Romney says in the ad, in which he appears driving a Chrysler 300. "Michigan's been my home; this is personal."

    In the ad, Romney also addresses the federal bailout of the auto industry in broad terms, asking, "How in the world did an industry and its leaders and its unions get in such a fix," while accusing Obama of having done "all these things the liberals had wanted to do for years" without adding specifics.

    Joshua Lott / Reuters

    Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign event in Mesa, Arizona February 13, 2012.

    It's a sentiment echoed in Romney's piece in today's Detroit News, in which he expands on his opposition to the 2009 bailout.

    The effort seems directed at softening some of the attacks directed at Romney by Democrats associated with the former Massachusetts governor's opposition to Obama's handling of the bailout, outlined famously in a New York Times op-ed titled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt."

    Obama and his campaign count the revivals for GM and Chrysler among the administration's greatest successes in its first term. Obama trumpeted Chrysler's early repaying of some bridge loans and improved balance sheets by both companies, although the government maintains a significant equity share in both automakers.

    "Does anyone believe what Mitt says: that the American auto industry would be better off today if the president hadn't intervened in 2009?" Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod tweeted Tuesday morning.

    Other Democratic surrogates attacked Romney for trying to soften or even reverse his position ahead of the primary.

    "All of them are wrong," former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm said of the GOP field during a DNC conference call Tuesday, "but for Romney in particular it shows that the man has no principles, no core."

    "Remember, that was then and this is now. Then he said let them go into bankruptcy," said Michigan Rep. John Dingell, seizing on a portion in Romney's op-ed hailing GM and Chrysler's revival. "He is now finding that success is here, and he wants to rush out and claim success, and claim participation in that success."

    Romney's opposition to the bailout does little to distinguish him from his competitors in the Republican primary in Michigan.

    Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who's surged nationally versus Romney since scoring upset victories in a trio of nominating contests last week, appears poised to take a run at Romney on his home turf in Michigan. Santorum's on the air in the Wolverine State, and some automated polls (which aren't recognized by NBC News) suggest Santorum is within striking distance of victory in the Michigan primary, which Romney won during his presidential campaign of 2008.

    Moreover, Santorum's position on the auto bailouts is virtually identical to Romney's. "I called for a structured bankruptcy from the very beginning," Santorum said in January on C-SPAN. "They could have gone through a structured bankruptcy. And the only difference between those two companies coming out of bankruptcy versus the bailouts Obama put in place was that the unions wouldn’t take ownership share of the company. The bondholders who were all in line under the rule of law should have gotten their fairer share of the company."

    Former House Speaker Gingrich has also voiced opposition to the auto industry bailout.

    Romney has homed in now on the treatment of unions as a main point of criticism toward Obama's handling of the managed bankruptcy. Romney says the president had eventually pursued the managed bankruptcy option Romney had preferred, but did so in a way that unfairly advantaged the UAW and organized labor over Chrysler and GM's secured creditors -- most of which are located on Wall Street.

    "While a lot of workers and investors got the short end of the stick, Obama's union allies — and his major campaign contributors — reaped reward upon reward, all on the taxpayer's dime," Romney wrote in the Detroit News piece, in which he calls for the government to sell off its shares of GM.

    But Romney's new strides this week appear more directed at responding to attacks by Democrats, not his rivals in the presidential campaign. The bailout remains generally popular in Michigan, and even some congressional Republicans who represent the issue are on record in favor of the Obama administration's support for GM and Chrysler. Democrats' attacks are meant to saddle Romney in parts of the Midwest where the auto industry remains dominant, and drive up his negatives both for the Republican primary and the general election. (Obama led Romney, 48 to 40 percent, in a January 2012 EPIC/MRA poll of likely Michigan voters, erasing an advantage that Romney had held over the president in 2011 polls.)

    Those efforts to define Romney might be aided by Romney's own history on the issue, now trying to largely take credit for the path the Obama adminstration pursued after having pleaded for Washington to ease the path for automakers during the 2008 GOP primary in Michigan.

    "The question is, where is Washington?" Romney said during that campaign, according to an account by the New York Times, specifically decrying new fuel efficiency standards for Detroit's Big Three. "Where does it stop? Is there a point at which someone says 'enough'? Or are we going to allow the entire domestic automotive manufacturing industry to disappear?"

  • First Thoughts: Here we go again

    Anthony Bolante / Reuters

    Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum smiles while speaking to the crowd at a campaign rally at the Washington State History Museum in Tacoma, Washington February 13, 2012.

    Here we go again: Santorum surges in national polling… Contemplating a two-man GOP race vs. a three-man one… TV ad war heats up with pro-Romney Super PAC expanding its buy in MI (and also going up in GA, MS, OK, TN), while Santorum will begin airing two positive ads in MI… Wrapping up yesterday’s campaign activity: Santorum gets interrupted and glittered in WA… Gingrich, in CA, avoids talking about his GOP rivals… And Romney, in AZ, once again stresses his conservative credentials… House GOP payroll tax-cut concession: a retreat or a trap?... And CW shifts in birth-control debate.


    Here we go again: So apparently all it took were wins in the non-binding caucuses of Colorado and Minnesota, as well as the beauty contest of Missouri, to catapult Rick Santorum into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney, according to THREE national polls. A Pew Research Center survey among registered GOPers (conducted Feb. 8-12) has it Santorum 30%, Romney 28%, Newt Gingrich 17%, and Ron Paul at 12%. Gallup (also conducted Feb. 8-12) has it Romney 32%, Santorum 30%, Gingrich 16%, and Paul 8%. And New York Times/CBS has it Santorum 30%, Romney 27%. That makes Santorum -- by our count -- the sixth Republican to see a surge in the national polls, joining Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Gingrich (twice). So if you were to write the early history of this GOP presidential race, you’d have to make these two points, no matter who eventually wins the nomination: One, Romney is the on-again, off-again front-runner who holds almost every advantage (money, organization, endorsements, having run for president before) except the one that matters most: the hearts and minds of the base. And two, all it takes is a little good news (a primary victory, a strong debate performance) for a non-Romney lacking these advantages to give him a run for his money because of the one missing ingredient for the front-runner: passion.

    *** Two-man race vs. three-man race: The good news for Romney is that every time a true challenger has emerged, his campaign has either knocked that person down (Perry, Newt) or seen that candidate self-destruct (Perry, Cain, Newt). The potential bad news for Romney is that conservative GOP voters are beginning to run out of candidates. And guess what: There’s now a growing call for Gingrich to leave the race and endorse Santorum. As National Review wrote yesterday, “When he led Santorum in the polls, he urged the Pennsylvanian to leave the race. On his own arguments the proper course for him now is to endorse Santorum and exit.” And political analyst Stu Rothenberg argues that if Gingrich really dislikes Romney so much, he should end his candidacy and back Santorum. “So what’s worse to Gingrich, losing the nomination or watching Romney get it?” Here’s a question to ponder: Does the Romney campaign want Gingrich to stay relevant and actually do well enough in the South on Super Tuesday to guarantee the delegates are split up three ways? Romney’s campaign is the ONLY one with the resources to fight a two-front war and to be in a position to play (cliché alert!) three-dimensional chess on Super Tuesday, while Santorum and Gingrich simply try and play their own game of checkers.

    *** TV ad war heats up: The TV ad battle in the Republican race has been largely quiet over the last several days, but it’s about to pick up. The pro-Romney Super PAC Restore Our Future, per the New York Times, has purchased nearly $500,000 in additional airtime in Michigan to run this TV ad hitting Gingrich. (And we can report that Restore Our Future is also going up in Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Oklahoma.) So Romney’s allies clearly aren’t giving up on Newt; they are now committed to fighting a two-front war against both Gingrich and Santorum. The question is how much of a toll does this negative campaign take on Romney? Indeed, that Pew poll -- mirroring our NBC/WSJ survey from last month -- shows independents abandoning Romney in a head-to-head matchup against President Obama. . Meanwhile, First Read can confirm that Santorum is going up with two POSITIVE ads in Michigan (size of buy is unclear right now). What wins out in the Wolverine State -- positive or negative?

    *** Santorum gets interrupted, Newt doesn’t mention his GOP rivals, and Romney stresses his conservative credentials: Here’s a quick wrap of yesterday’s campaign activity: Santorum, stumping in Tacoma, WA, got interrupted by Occupy Wall Street protestors and also got glitter-bombed, NBC’s Andrew Rafferty reports. (It is striking the impact that protestors have had on events during this GOP race, and campaigns without a significant infrastructure like Santorum’s are having are especially difficult time dealing with them.) At an event in California, Gingrich never mentioned either Santorum or Romney, NBC’s Alex Moe notes. (When Gingrich was later asked why he didn’t mention them, he replied, “I do dramatically better when I focus on the nation's problems and I focus on the nation's solutions. I don’t do nearly as well when I focus on my competitors.”) And in Arizona last night, Romney (like he did at CPAC) emphasized his conservative credentials, hit Obama on his budget, and painted his GOP rivals as Washington insiders, NBC’s Garrett Haake writes.

    President Obama unveiled his 2013 budget plan on Monday, and Republican leaders were quick to lash out in opposition. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

    *** On the trail: Romney raises money in New York City (could it be with Donald Trump?)… Santorum holds rallies in Idaho… And Gingrich remains in California.

    *** A retreat or a trap? Turning away from the campaign trail and toward Capitol Hill, House Republican leaders made a stunning concession in the payroll tax-cut fight: They said they are willing to extend the payroll tax cut for 10 months without paying for it, but they will separate that extension from the unemployment insurance and Medicare “doc fix” that Democrats want to pass. Here’s Roll Call: “Republicans are acknowledging that they would rather give in on a straight extension than fight on for spending cuts that Senate Democrats will not accept.” Here’s The Hill: “Republicans retreat on tax cut.” Indeed, House Republicans -- after months of complaining about spending and deficits -- are walking a line here that deficits don’t matter (especially if you’re headed for a political defeat or if you don’t want to raise taxes). But to channel Admiral Ackbar, is this a trap for Democrats? The New York Times: “By separating the payroll tax from jobless benefits, Republicans have somewhat boxed in Democrats, forcing them to decide whether to accept a stand-alone tax cut that touches nearly all working Americans — and is generally more popular than the additional unemployment insurance — or hold out for a package that covers all three programs, at a cost of about $160 billion.”

    *** Politics AFTER November’s presidential election: While the president’s budget is unlikely to become close to the blueprint this Congress adopts for 2013, do realize that because of this election year and the leverage BOTH parties THINK they could have in November, the future of the Bush-era tax cuts (which Obama extended once) probably won’t be dealt with by Washington’s leaders until that six-week period between Election Day and the New Year.  So for those thinking the election itself will bring some rest for the weary… think again. Bush isn’t on the ballot in November, but the future of his tax legacy is.

    *** CW shifts in birth-control debate: Finally, The Hill makes the point that the Conventional Wisdom in the fight over birth control has flipped. “The furor over President Obama’s birth-control insurance mandate appears to have vaporized as quickly as it blew up. The White House faced just two questions on the issue at a briefing with reporters Monday, just days after the intense controversy threatened to swamp the president’s reelection campaign. While the president’s Friday “accommodation” did not win over the White House’s most harsh critics, some Republicans and Catholic groups have offered measured support, including centrist Maine Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, suggesting Obama might have at least muddied the waters.”

    Countdown to Super Tuesday: 21 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 266 days

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  • Programming notes

    *** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: GOP strategist Charlie Black, who’s an informal adviser to the Romney campaign, on the state of the race… Redistricting and retirement realities with The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman and The Rothenberg Political Report’s Nathan Gonzales… Hispanic vote politics with Voto Latino’s Maria Teresa Kumar and Alfonso Aguilar of The Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles… More 2012 news with The Grio’s Perry Bacon, the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward and former Obama White House Communications Director Anita Dunn.

    *** Tuesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews the Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson, Slate’s Dave Weigel, National Review’s Jim Geraghty, NARAL’s Nancy Keenan, and Tea Party activist Katrina Pierson.

    *** Tuesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts talks with Rep. Chris Van Hollen, A.B. Stoddard, Jackie Kucinich, Alicia Menendez, and Robert Trayhnam.

    *** Tuesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include The Nation’s Katrina  Vanden Heuvel, BuzzFeed’s Ben Smith, Time’s Rana Foroohar, The Daily Caller’s Matt K. Lewis, CBC Chairman Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), former State Department Spokesman P.J. Crowley, & Telemundo’s Jose Diaz-Balart.

    *** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Chuck Todd, filling in for Andrea, interviews the Economist’s Grep Ip, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, Dem Sen. Chris Coons, and the Washington Post’s Anne Kornblut.

    *** Tuesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Bill Barrenger from Inside Michigan Politics and Michael Smerconish

  • 2012: Romney vs. Santorum

    “In a fight to be seen as the most fiscally conservative presidential candidate, Republicans Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have been attacking one another for requesting federal spending,” the Boston Globe writes. “Santorum, as Pennsylvania senator from 1995 to 2006, requested more than $1 billion in earmarks. Romney collected millions as Massachusetts governor and as the manager of the Salt Lake City Olympic Games.”

    Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder will endorse a candidate soon, he said at the Detroit Economic Club yesterday. “Mitt Romney, who was born in Michigan and won the state in 2008, endorsed Snyder for governor in the 2010 general election,” USA Today notes, adding, “The club will be playing host to GOP presidential hopeful Rick Santorum on Thursday and to Romney on Feb. 24. Romney's remarks to the club drew such big interest that the venue has been changed to Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions.”

    GINGRICH: Stu Rothenberg argues that if Newt Gingrich really hates Mitt Romney so much, he should drop out. “…[I]t is becoming clear that if retribution is a high priority for Gingrich, then his obvious next step is to drop his presidential bid and endorse former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.” More: “Is his personal ambition so strong that he will remain in the race even though that will increase the chances that Romney will be nominated? Or is his bitterness and animosity toward the former Massachusetts governor so deep that he is willing to put aside his personal ambitions and yield the spotlight, in which he clearly revels? … So what’s worse to Gingrich, losing the nomination or watching Romney get it?”

    National Review calls on Gingrich to drop out. “[I]t would be a grave mistake for the party to make someone with such poor judgment and persistent unpopularity its presidential nominee,” the editors write of Gingrich, adding, “When he led Santorum in the polls, he urged the Pennsylvanian to leave the race. On his own arguments the proper course for him now is to endorse Santorum and exit.”

    “Just three weeks after his stunning victory in South Carolina's primary made him the man of the hour in the state-by-state race for the Republican nomination, Gingrich is struggling to remain relevant,” Reuters adds.

    The L.A. Times: “On a day packed with fundraising events to refuel his campaign, Newt Gingrich insisted Monday that he would not drop out of the GOP presidential contest even though polls show he is not now winning the argument against Rick Santorum that he is the best conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.”

    Gingrich is working his home state by phone as he campaigns in California, writes the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "Gingrich held a conference call with Georgia supporters Monday to promote his weekend events in the Atlanta area: Friday night in Peachtree City, then Saturday in Forsyth County, Gwinnett County and Cobb County. “Tell your friends and neighbors we will have more town halls like this; early voting has started,” Gingrich said after taking questions on everything from the Obama administration loan for solar manufacturer Solyndra to drug testing for welfare recipients.

    ROMNEY: He pens an op-ed in the Detroit News, explaining his support for "managed bankruptcy" at the time of the auto crisis. "The president tells us that without his intervention things in Detroit would be worse. I believe that without his intervention things there would be better. My view at the time — and I set it out plainly in an op-ed in the New York Times — was that "the American auto industry is vital to our national interest as an employer and as a hub for manufacturing." Instead of a bailout, I favored "managed bankruptcy" as the way forward. Managed bankruptcy may sound like a death knell. But in fact, it is a way for a troubled company to restructure itself rapidly, entering and leaving the courtroom sometimes in weeks or months instead of years, and then returning to profitable operation."

    By the way, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder says he will endorse in the next week in the GOP contest.

    The Arizona Republic: “Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney rallied about 2,000 supporters in Mesa on Monday, as two national polls showed Romney neck and neck with former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. … Romney at times struggled to talk over a small but vocal group of protesters outside the Mesa Amphitheatre who were calling on Romney to reverse his opposition to the Dream Act.” Also notable: “A win in the Arizona primary would secure for Romney all 29 of the state's available delegates,” which is why Santorum is choosing to focus on Michigan, which is proportional.

    “Woof woof. A group of ‘Dogs against Romney’ plan to gather outside the Westminster dog show at Madison Square Garden tomorrow,” the Boston Globe writes. “Their beef? A 1983 incident when Romney put the family dog, Seamus, on the roof of his station wagon for a 12-hour drive from Boston to Ontario. Seamus was in a dog carrier with a windshield – but the canine story would dog Romney for years. Dogs against Romney, is the brainchild of Scott Crider, an Alabama online marketing and social media specialist and lifelong dog owner, who was shocked to read about Seamus in 2007.”

    SANTORUM: Much of the buzz is with Santorum. The New York Post notes his lead in a robo poll in Michigan and his vaulting to near the top of two national polls: “These polls delivered a stinging reminder to Romney that the race for the Republican presidential nomination is far from over and that the ex-Massachusetts governor still can’t convince the conservative GOP base that he’s its man.”

    And now it’s a THIRD national poll: “A New York Times/CBS News poll released Tuesday morning showed Mr. Santorum surging among Republican primary voters nationwide, lifted by support among conservatives, evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters. In the new poll, 30 percent of Republican primary voters say they support Mr. Santorum, compared with 27 percent for Mr. Romney.”

    But he had a tough go of it in Washington state yesterday ahead of that state’s primary. On the day gay marriage was signed into law in the state, Santorum found himself fighting to be heard at a rally in Tacoma. “The former Pennsylvania senator was cheered by the largest public outdoor rally in Western Washington that a Republican White House hopeful has seen in years.  But Santorum fought to make himself heard over chants from protesters,” the Seattle Post-Intelligencer writes, adding, “The Santorum rally, at the Washington State History Museum, was the state's the most raucous political event since conservative talk radio activists provided a loud bump in the 1994 Hillary Clinton health care caravan. But the Clinton visit came in an era before glitter bombing, which Santorum experienced for the second time in a week, and chants of ‘We are the 99 percent.’”

  • Congress: GOP retreat -- or trap -- on payroll tax cut?

    “In a major tactical shift, House Republican leaders Monday said they would sign off on a payroll tax cut extension that is not paid for, marking an attempt to both pressure Democrats and get the issue behind them,” Roll Call reports. “Bruised from a months-long battle to pay for the $100 billion payroll tax holiday, Republicans are acknowledging that they would rather give in on a straight extension than fight on for spending cuts that Senate Democrats will not accept.”

    More: “A bill from GOP leaders could come to the House floor as soon as Wednesday. Though Democrats immediately groused, Republicans are hoping they will find such an offer impossible to shun.” Democrats want an unemployment benefits extension and the Medicare Doc fix included.

    The Hill’s headline: “Republicans retreat on tax cut.”

    “With an end-of-February deadline approaching, House Republican leaders said today they may push a vote this week on extending the payroll tax cut -- but not unemployment benefits or a delay of cuts in fees to doctors who treat Medicare patients,” USA Today notes.

    Yet the New York Times notes, "By separating the payroll tax from jobless benefits, Republicans have somewhat boxed in Democrats, forcing them to decide whether to accept a stand-alone tax cut that touches nearly all working Americans — and is generally more popular than the additional unemployment insurance — or hold out for a package that covers all three programs, at a cost of about $160 billion."

  • Obama agenda: Debate turns on contraception

    “The furor over President Obama’s birth-control insurance mandate appears to have vaporized as quickly as it blew up,” The Hill writes, adding, “While the president’s Friday ‘accommodation’ did not win over the White House’s most harsh critics, some Republicans and Catholic groups have offered measured support, including centrist Maine Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, suggesting Obama might have at least muddied the waters.”

    Still: “GOP opponents of the new rule are showing no signs of backing down. Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) have introduced bills to block the mandate, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said over the weekend that he wants a vote on the issue ‘as soon as possible.’”

    The AP breaks down Obama’s budget by federal agency.

  • Santorum supporters tell Occupy protesters at rally: 'Get a job'

    Ted S. Warren / AP

    Republican presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, is lit by utility lights as he speaks at an evening outdoor rally at the Washington State History Museum, Monday.

     

    TACOMA, WA -- Rick Santorum's debut campaign stop in the state of Washington on Monday was held at a venue next to what has become a base camp for occupy Wall Street protesters.  And the group made it known that the presidential candidate was on their turf.

    Outside the Washington Historical Museum on Monday night, Rick Santorum spent his 45-minute speech yelling over the chants of about one dozen protesters repeating "We are the 99 percent." Despite the interruptions, he paused only once while police confronted some of vocal young people.  By the end of the rally, three arrests were made, according to Tacoma police officials.


    “I understand their frustration," Santorum told the crowd. "For three years they haven’t been able to find work, they have a president who doesn’t care about them.”

    The protesters energized supporters to rally around the former Pennsylvania senator.  At one point, nearly the entire crowd pointed at the protesters, chanting "Get a job." But Santorum quelled the crowd, using it as an opportunity to dig at President Obama.

    "You realize that there is a group in society that is being left behind. There's a group, about one in three Americans don't graduate from high school, and almost all of them, over three quarters of them, will end up in poverty at some point in time in this country," said Santorum. "We've got to provide an opportunity for them, instead of standing here unemployed yelling at somebody, to go out and get a job and work for a living."

    The strong social conservative has been followed by protesters throughout his campaign, mostly young people energized by issues like Santorum's opposition to same-sex marriage.  As he greeted the crowd after the event, a young woman threw glitter on Santorum -- a public display of support of the gay rights movement.  It is at least the sixth time on the campaign trail Santorum has found himself on the receiving end of a handful of glitter.  His GOP presidential rivals have also found themselves covered in the shiny party decoration.

    Ted S. Warren / AP

    A protester shouts to disrupt a speech by Republican presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Monday.

    The Santorum campaign feels Washington provides an opportunity to pick up delegates in a state where other candidates will not be spending much time or resources.  The state's caucus occupies a unique space on the calendar -- before Super Tuesday, but after contests in Michigan and Arizona.

    "I ask here in Washington State, you have a great caucus coming up, right before the big Super Tuesday. You will be the last voice...you will be that momentum changer heading into those Super Tuesday states," he said. "Your caucus, your voice will speak very loudly about where the race is heading into these big Super Tuesday primaries. Your caucus across this state can have a huge impact on who the Republican nominee will be so I ask each and every one of you to do your duty, to live up to your honor, to come forward and to go to those caucuses on Saturday morning."

    From here, Santorum heads to Idaho on Tuesday, and North Dakota and Michigan later in the week.  Michigan is a state where Romney was previously thought to have stronghold.  The former Massachusetts governor won the state where his father served as chief executive in 2008.

    But new polls show Santorum surging and in some cases eclipsing the candidate previously thought to be the front-runner.

    The Santorum campaign will begin airing two television ads in Michigan tomorrow.

  • Gingrich keeps focus on self, talks Valentine's Day plans

     

     


    PASADENA, Calif.
    –- Newt Gingrich “kicked off” his California campaign this afternoon outside of Los Angeles but failed to attack either of his two GOP competitors: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
     
    Gingrich, speaking at a Hispanic Leadership event in South El Monte, never mentioned either Romney or Santorum. Asked by reporters following the event why he did not mention either men by name during his speech, Gingrich said he was sticking to talking about himself.
     
    “I believe, when we went back and analyzed it, I do dramatically better when I focus on the nation's problems and I focus on the nation's solutions. I don’t do nearly as well when I focus on my competitors,” Gingrich said inside Cielito Lindo Restaurant. “We took lesson that has worked twice in the last three months."
     
    The former House Speaker added, “I think my ideas are much bolder than Santorum or Romney’s. I think my ideas are much clearer and more specific and I have to focus on communicating those ideas.”
     
    Gingrich will spend the next three days in California mostly focusing on fundraising – something the campaign needs to stay in the race. The former House speaker only has one win under his belt, the South Carolina primary back in mid-January while Santorum has racked up four victories in Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, and Minnesota and Romney has three in New Hampshire, Florida, and Maine. Gingrich says, though, he will be back on top soon.
     
    "I believe in a few weeks I will return to being the leader in the Gallup poll,” he said at a Tea Pac meeting here.
     
    Rather than taking aim at his Republican counterparts, Gingrich focused some of his speech on President Barack Obama, especially his new budget proposal.
     
    “The time to have the fight over the next debt ceiling is not this fall. We've played this game before. We know what Obama's going to do. He's going to get up to the last minute. He's going to stand there and say how we need to do this. We have no choice,” Gingrich said. “Time to stop it is right now. What the Congress ought to do right now is passing the kind of reform that would make the debt ceiling increase unnecessarily.”
     
    It wasn’t all-business for the former speaker today, though. One member of the audience wanted to know what special Valentines Day’s plans he had with his wife, Callista, Tuesday.
     
    "All I can promise is that I believe she will be quite happy tomorrow night. I think for the first time in a while we have a private dinner and hopefully [can] exchange gifts, and reconnect a little bit,” Gingrich said.
     
    After a pause and a little smile while the crowd laughed, the speaker added: "No more details."
     
    Gingrich visits the Tulare World Ag Expo Tuesday in addition to holding private fundraisers before his supposed Valentine’s Day plans.

  • Romney retools stump speech to emphasize leadership, Massachusetts record

     

     

     


    MESA, Ariz.
    -- Returning to the campaign trail for the first time since claiming small, if welcome, victories in Maine and at the CPAC straw poll, Mitt Romney tonight unveiled a retooled stump speech in which he drew broad biographical contrasts with his Republican rivals, and devoted more time than usual to his record as Massachusetts governor.

    "I'm sure there are some issues here and there where we can point out distinctions," Romney said of his rivals for the GOP nomination. "But perhaps the greatest distinction is what we've done during our lives, our life experiences ... Congressman Paul was a doctor, then went into government, but the other guys have spent their life entirely in government, and in my view it's helpful to have been involved in two businesses, an Olympics and a state ...  and to have a chance to run those as an executive."

    "We elected in President Obama someone who had never run anything, who had never been a leader. We're not going to do that in the Republican Party. Let's not nominate someone who hasn't done anything and has not been a leader," Romney continued.

    Romney's speech tonight before a crowd of at least two thousand vocal supporters outside Phoenix seemed to build on his address to the CPAC conference in Washington last week, in which he looked to bolster his conservative credentials in large part by highlighting elements of his record as governor of Massachusetts, which traditionally takes a back seat on the stump to his record as a businessman.

    Romney ran through a laundry list of accomplishments from his tenure as Massachusetts governor, including everything from balancing budgets and improving the school system -- to more controversial battles like those over illegal immigration and same-sex marriage, which Massachusetts' Supreme Court legalized during Romney's term.

    "I led the fight to get an amendment to our constitution to reverse that ruling," Romney said of the court's decision to allow same sex marriage, echoing his CPAC speech. "We missed by one vote. Even in a legislature that's 85 percent Democrat. But we went to make sure that we didn't have our same sex marriage go throughout the country and we were able to enforce -- I think it was a 1913 law -- that kept Massachusetts from becoming the Las Vegas of same sex marriage."

    ""We made sure we enforced immigration laws by empowering our state police to have the capacity to work with ICE to get those who are here illegally out of our state," Romney told the crowd here to loud applause. That policy, however, was never implemented, as the incoming Democratic administration quickly repealed it after Romney left office.

    Romney's speech tonight did not just include new thematic elements, but also continued Romney's news-of-the-day attacks on President Obama. Today, it was the budget in his crosshairs.

    "He unfortunately came out with another trillion dollar deficit," Romney said over the boos of the crowd." And if I recall, he said back in his election he said that he was going to cut in half the deficit by the end of the first term. Well he did just the opposite - he doubled it by the end of his first term."

    One element of Romney's stump speech not to change? His recitation of his favorite lyrics of "America the Beautiful," which the audience seemed to be expecting. As Romney began to talk about the song, several members of the crowd shouted loudly: "Sing it!

  • Obama unveils campaign-ready budget

    Sounding a populist tone that will likely be heard on the campaign trail, President Obama today called for higher taxes on the nation’s highest earners as a central part of his new budget proposal.  

    He also implored Congress to pass extensions of the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance, just hours before House Republicans offered up a plan that would only accomplish the former goal.

    Speaking in the swing state of Virginia, Obama gave a nod, as he has frequently in recent weeks, to Warren Buffett, the billionaire who has noted that he pays a lower income tax rate than some of his employees.

    “You've heard me say it: Warren Buffett pays a lower tax rate than his secretary. That's not fair,” Obama told an audience at the Northern Virginia Community College.

    His Fiscal Year 2013 budget does in fact urge the observance of the “Buffett Rule,” which stipulates that no household making more than $1 million a year should pay less than 30 percent in income taxes.

    But even the president’s top economic advisers acknowledge that the Buffett rule, and other measures that would raise the wealthiest Americans’ tax rates, are only guidelines in this year’s budget, not hard-and-fast requirements.

    The lack of specificity on tax rates underscores the notion that this budget, while ill-fated in Congress, is an outline of the president’s re-election priorities, chief among them, more financial sacrifice from the wealthiest Americans.

    Gene Sperling,the director of the president’s economic advisory council, told reporters that the Buffett rule “has been one of our principles for individual tax reform as opposed to an explicit provision in this year's budget.”

    The budget also hints at, but doesn’t explicitly call for, another new revenue-raising tactic that the president indicated he was open to: restoring the top tax rate on dividends to 39.6% for the highest earners, up from the current maximum of 15%, in place since George W. Bush’s administration.

    “In terms of tax reform, no, we have not tried to lay out what the exact rates would be,” Sperling said this afternoon.

    That 15 percent tax was recently scrutinized on the campaign trail after Mitt Romney, the millionaire former head of Bain Capital, told reporters he was taxed “closer to the 15 percent rate” because most of his income over the past 10 years has come from investments.

    But today White House press secretary Jay Carneyplayed down the notion that the White House’s proposal to raise that rate should be seen as an implicit jab at Romney, the putative Republican frontrunner.

    Telling reporters that the president’s re-election team could “preview campaign lines” for them, Carney added that the White House wasn’t “raising revenues for the sake of raising revenues.”

    Romney, however, wasn’t Obama’s chief target in his speech today; rather it was Congressional Republicans, whose obstinacy, Obama argued, had led to a short, two-month extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance that will expire at the end of this month.

    “We've been through this before, remember? We've seen this movie,” Obama said. “The time for self-inflicted wounds to our economy has to be over.”

    Just hours after his speech, however, House Republicans announced that they would introduce a bill to extend the payroll tax cut for the rest of the year without requiring a spending cut, which had previously been a sticking point for them.

    The bill would not, however, include the unemployment insurance extension.

    When asked in the briefing whether the president would support the proposal, Carney dismissed it as a “hypothetical proposal.”

    “Let's just see how this process plays out,” he said.

  • Two new polls: Santorum surges and now ties Romney

     

    So how much did last week's non-binding caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota, as well as the beauty contest in Missouri, influence the GOP presidential contest?

    So much so that Rick Santorum's victories in all three races have catapulted him into an essential tie with Mitt Romney, according to two new national polls. 

    A Pew Research Center survey, conducted Feb. 8-12 among GOP registered voters, has Santorum at 30%, Romney at 28%, Newt Gingrich at 17%, and Ron Paul at 12%. In a Pew poll a month ago, it was Romney 31%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 15%, and Santorum 14%.

    (In general election match-ups, Pew has President Obama leading Romney by eight points, 52%-44%; Santorum by 10, 53%-43%; and Gingrich by 18, 57%-39%.)

    And a new Gallup poll, also conducted Feb. 8-12, has Romney at 32% among registered GOP voters, Santorum at 30%, Gingrich at 16%, and Paul at 8%.

    A week ago, Santorum was at 16% -- so that's a 14-point increase for him.

    Of course, the former Pennsylvania senator now becomes the latest Republican presidential candidate to surge in the national polls, joining the likes of Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich.

    And it keeps alive this trend: A holding-steady Romney vs. a surging conservative alternative.

  • Justice Breyer robbed at knifepoint at home in Caribbean

    The Supreme Court has confirmed that Justice Stephen Breyer, his wife and several family friends were the victims of a knife-wielding robber at the Breyer vacation home on the island of Nevis in the Caribbean.

    A court official says that around 9:00 pm ET Thursday night, Justice Breyer, his wife and house guests were robbed by one suspect, wearing a mask and wielding a knife, who got away with about $1,000 in cash.

    No one was hurt in the incident.

    Previously filed financial disclosure forms as well as articles and tourist websites acknowledge that Justice Breyer is a regular vacationer to the island and has owned a home there for quite some time.

    The Nevis police department is investigating and says there are no suspects or arrests at this time.

    Local news reports as well as the police acknowledge other robberies and break-ins in the area around the same time.

    It is the third time in recent memory that a Supreme Court justice has been the victim of a crime.

    Back in 2004, Justice David Souter suffered minor injuries when he was mugged by a group of young men while jogging.

    And in 1996, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had her purse snatched near the Kennedy Center while walking with her husband and daughter. She was not hurt in the incident.

  • Inside the Boiler Room: Gearing up for Super Tuesday

    With three weeks to go before Super Tuesday, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the expectations for the Republican candidates and the impact of the states given the change in delegate allocation from 2008.

    With three weeks to go before Super Tuesday, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the expectations for the Republican candidates and the impact of the states given the change in delegate allocation from 2008. 

     

    Thanks Jody, Iowa for the question!!

    Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman. Transcribed by NBC's Lauren Hollstein.

    TRANSCRIPT:

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: Welcome to another edition of Inside the Boiler Room. I’m Domenico Montanaro along with Mark Murray. Mark we have a question from Jody from Iowa, long time commenter, who says “How do you see Super Tuesday shaping up for these candidates? Is there a change Santorum can end up winning more than previously expected? How will the states without winner take all impact Romney and others?

    MARK MURRAY: That’s a really interesting question. Let’s break it down in a different couple ways. Super Tuesday has about a dozen contests, you know four years ago when we had Super Tuesday it was twenty some odd contests. Now it’s about a dozen and it’s in different parts of the country and you can make the argument that all three candidates, so Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have some states where they can end up getting delegates or even some wins. For Mitt Romney, Massachusetts is actually on, and he should do very well in his home state.

    Also Virginia is a Super Tuesday state, Mitt Romney is the only guy on the ballot there, along with Ron Paul. And then you look at all of the southern states, Georgia, Newt Gingrich’s home state is on there, Tennessee, and then there’s Oklahoma where Rick Santorum has been campaigning and hitting a lot of churches which has been an interesting development.

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yeah, yeah I think Rick Santorum can probably wind up peeling off a couple of states that Newt Gingrich thinks he’s going to do well in. There are eleven or twelve states on Super Tuesday, five of them are traditionally southern states, one of them like you said, is Virginia. Gingrich isn’t even on the ballot even though it’s his home state. The other four, so you only have four southern states, in Oklahoma, like you said, Rick Santorum is getting pretty big crowds. He can do pretty well there and what if Newt Gingrich doesn’t win Georgia? I mean it’s possible.

    MARK MURRAY: It’s very possible. And let’s not forget Ohio. In fact, a lot of the reporting that we're getting is that Ohio is going to be the one contest where you’re going to see Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich all compete and maybe the winner of Ohio ends up becoming the winner of Super Tuesday.

    DOMENICO MONTANARO:  Yeah, I do think though that Super Tuesday will wind up shaking out a little bit because there’s not many delegates at stake to be able to give us a better view going forward over the next couple of months as to where this thing is actually headed, what the lead is and just how we will be able to handicap what’s going to happen by June.

    MARK MURRAY: We will and just the last part of Jody’s question had to do with the proportional delegates versus winner takes all. I remember four years ago on Super Tuesday a lot of the states like New York, California were winner take all which really helped John McCain who won them. This time around their proportional so even some of the states where Mitt Romney might not be suited all that well to do, talking about some of the southern states, he’s the one candidate who’s going to be able to do well proportionally in all of the contests on Super Tuesday

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: We’ll see. Thank you Jody.

    MARK MURRAY: Thanks.

     

  • GOP readies payroll tax backstop

    House Republican leaders said Monday that they will ready legislation to extend the payroll tax cut without offsetting its cost through the end of 2012 as a backstop in case lawmakers' efforts to authorize a comprehensive extension of that and unemployment benefits fail.

    House Speaker John Boehner (OH), Majority Leader Eric Cantor (VA) and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (CA) announced the alternative route amid signs that the formal conference committee in charge of crafting a compromise bill on the expiring unemployment insurance and tax cuts has stalled.

    "Because the president and Senate Democratic leaders have not allowed their conferees to support a responsible bipartisan agreement, today House Republicans will introduce a backup plan that would simply extend the payroll tax holiday for the remainder of the year while the conference negotiations continue regarding offsets, unemployment insurance, and the ‘doc fix,'" the trio said in a statement. "If Democrats continue to refuse to negotiate in good faith, Republicans may schedule this measure for House consideration later this week pending a conversation with our members."

    Congress extended the expiring benefits at the end of December, shortly before each had been scheduled to lapse after Dec. 31. That agreement wasn't reached, however, until House Republicans relented on their demand that the programs be extended for all of calendar year 2012, along with having their costs fully offset.

    Republicans agreed to the short-term extension only in exchange for the formal "conference" process intended to resolve differences between House and Senate legislation. But that reversal only came after a number of Republicans accused their House colleagues of politically damaging intransigence.

    But with just a few weeks left to go until the Feb. 28 deadline, the conference committee appears mired in stalemate, with disagreement falling along familiar fault lines. Democrats wish to impose new revenue-raising measures on the wealthiest Americans to finance the tax cuts and benefit extensions, while Republicans decry such efforts as tax hikes, and wish to find savings instead through budget cuts.

    The GOP's maneuver on Monday is a bid to put Democrats on their heels, and push back against the narrative that President Obama has used to great effect, casting Republicans as having obstructed middle-class tax relief by playing politics. If Congress were to authorize the tax cut extension without offsets -- something for which Democrats have pushed -- Republicans would conceivably be able to deny responsibility for the failure of negotiations.

    Pelosi herself has told reporters repeatedly that she does not believe the payroll tax cut should be paid for as it is an "emergency" program implemented during a down economy. Boehner admits in his statement that "this is not our first choice," which reflects the fact that many in the Republican conference, especially conservative members, believe that this tax cut, if it's done at all, should have its cost offset. The total cost of the 10-month extension is around $100 billion.

    Because of that conservative opposition, the bill would likely need to rely on Democratic support to pass, putting Democrats in the tough position of being forced to vote for a tax cut they have been pushing Republicans to pass.

  • Obama 'Truth Team' aims to counter attacks

     

    While Republicans continue to wrangle over exactly who they should pick as their flagbearer against the Democratic incumbent in the White House, President Barack Obama's re-election team is arming itself against the GOP's arguments against granting him a second term. 

    In a move reminiscent of Team Obama's 2008's "Fight the Smears" effort, the president's re-election campaign today launched its "Truth Team" along with three independent web sites offering opposition research and talking points for the president's backers on the ground. 

    The "network of supporters" has its hub at Obama's re-election web portal, which contains links to three individual sites. AttackWatch.com monitors the GOP 2012 candidates' slams of the administration's record; KeepingHisWord.com offers examples of Obama's fulfilled campaign promises; and KeepingGOPHonest.com critiques Republican presidential candidates' proposals with opposition research.

    In addition to offering new online and social media tools for Obama fans, today's exercise also serves as an initial run for the localized rapid-response infrastructure that will activate "validators" in swing states who can quickly respond to Republican attacks in person-to-person meetings and local media markets. 

    Press conferences to unveil the "truth teams" -- groups of between five and 15 state legislators and other opinion leaders -- are being held in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. Teams are also being announced in Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. 

    In Florida, for example, state Democratic Party Chairman Rod Smith, as well as five state legislators, will hold a 4:30 pm press conference in Tallahassee to unveil their team. In Minnesota, it's a team of over a dozen that includes the mayor of Minneapolis, the DFL party chair, and civil-rights figure Dr. Josie Johnson. In Arizona, local leaders will also use the "Truth Team" announcement to bracket Mitt Romney's visit to the 2012 swing state -- where Team Obama is expected to open its fourth field office soon. 

    Those teams will be augmented by local leaders, voters, and labor and interest group voices, the campaign says. The effort is designed to deploy a multi-tiered supporter network that can counter GOP criticisms of the president from statehouses to neighborhoods. 

    In an email to supporters, deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter called it "the grassroots communications team of the Obama 2012 campaign."

    "Communicating about the president's record -- and that of our opponents -- is what I do full-time," Cutter writes. "But people don't just want to hear from campaign statements or ads -- they want to hear from the family and friends they trust."

  • First Thoughts: Didn't we almost have it all?

    Robert F. Bukaty / AP

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks at a caucus, Saturday, Feb. 11, 2012, in Portland, Maine.

    Romney survives over the weekend by winning Maine caucuses and CPAC straw poll… His struggle so far: an “excitement deficit”… Breaking down the 18 different contests over a 15-day period… Paul campaign disputes Romney’s Maine victory… How to judge the White House’s birth-control compromise: If we’re still talking about it this week (and so far today, it isn’t a topic of conversation)… And Obama to discuss his budget at 11:00 am ET in Northern Virginia. 


    *** Didn’t we almost have it all? Perhaps the best way to view Mitt Romney’s weekend is that he survived. He couldn’t afford to lose the Maine caucuses (and have the storyline exist that he lost four-straight contests). He couldn’t fare poorly in the CPAC straw poll (especially after his “severely conservative” line). And guess what: He won both. They weren’t impressive victories, and they both had their controversies -- a Maine county postponed its caucus, while Rick Santorum accused the Romney camp of rigging the straw poll (but isn’t that exactly what a straw poll is?) But both events showed that they can win, even when it isn’t pretty. And that very well might be the theme of Romney’s entire primary fight: winning ugly. Still, a win is a win…

    *** So (not) emotional: On Sunday, the New York Times’ Frank Bruni did a good job of summing up why Romney is struggling, even when he wins: His candidacy has an “excitement deficit.” Bruni writes, “It’s hard to find a single Republican, including those most solidly behind him, who demonstrates true passion for him or can do even a persuasive pantomime of it. They call him effective, not inspirational. They praise his competence, not his charisma. He doesn’t exert any sort of gravitational pull on his party. There’s no full swoon.” He concludes, “Almost all of the presidents elected over recent decades have been propelled by pockets of intense enthusiasm, which can paper over so many specific political predicaments and eclipse tensions with the base. They were saviors before they were disappointments, not disappointments right out of the gate. And almost all of them had something solid — a resonant personal story or an outsize personality or a bold vision — for admirers to latch onto. Romney wafts through a voter’s fingers, a puff of presidential-looking air.”

    *** All at once: Looking ahead in the GOP primary race, there will be 18 different contests over a 15-day period. And here’s a good way to score their outcome: If Romney isn’t the guy with the most combined delegates, then we may very well be headed for a brokered convention. Here are 18 contests in 15 days:

    Tuesday, Feb. 28: Michigan (primary), Arizona (primary)
    Saturday, Mar. 3
    : Washington (caucus)
    Tuesday, Mar. 6
    : (Super Tuesday): Alaska (caucus), Georgia (primary), Idaho (caucus), Massachusetts (primary), North Dakota (caucus), Ohio (primary), Oklahoma (primary), Tennessee (primary), Vermont (primary), Virginia (primary), Wyoming (caucus)
    Saturday, Mar. 10
    : Kansas (caucus)
    Tuesday, Mar. 13
    : Alabama (primary), Hawaii (caucus), Mississippi (primary)

    GOP candidate Rick Santorum says he is focusing on a "two-person race" with Mitt Romney as Sarah Palin is speaking out to question Romney's conservative credentials.  NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

    *** I want to dance with somebody: Given all of these different contests, here’s an early look where the individual campaigns plan to spend their time. Romney: Arizona on Monday; Michigan on Wednesday and Thursday; Idaho on Friday; and Utah on Saturday. Santorum: Washington state on Monday (same day same-sex marriage gets signed into law in that state); Idaho on Tuesday; and Michigan on Thursday. Gingrich: California (which doesn’t hold its contest until June 5) from Monday through Thursday; and Georgia on Friday. Indeed, don’t lose sight on Gingrich’s disappearing schedule. Gingrich seems to be in a SERIOUS cash crunch given he’s spending his ENTIRE week, basically, fundraising. 

    *** How will I know (if Romney really won Maine)? What is it with the Republican Party and its caucuses? First was the controversy over the Iowa results -- with the state party saying that Romney came out on top only to later reverse course and declare Santorum the winner. Next was Nevada, which held its caucuses at different times and with one special caucus site forcing participants to sign a legal declaration under the penalty of perjury that they couldn’t attend earlier caucuses because of their religious beliefs. And then on Saturday, one Maine county (Washington County) postponed its caucus -- due to snow -- until Feb. 18, which allowed the Paul campaign to cry foul and make the case it could have won if there hadn’t been a postponement. By the way, Ron Paul still hasn’t won a single contest so far...

    *** My love is your love: In Maine (without the results from Washington County), turnout was up slightly (2.6%) from 2008 -- 5,585 people voted this year in the weeklong caucuses, up from 5,446 in 2008. But even though Romney won, that turnout increase appeared driven by Paul supporters. Romney got 23% fewer votes (2,190 votes versus 2,826), and Paul doubled his 2008 showing (1,996 votes, up 100% from 999 in 2008). There's also been a big difference between Romney's turnout in the first four contests and the last four. Overall, the frontrunner's seen a 14% increase in the number of people voting for him this year than in 2008. But in the first four highly contested contests, where Romney and his Super PAC spent millions of dollars in advertising promoting himself and attacking others, Romney's turnout was up 38%. But in the last four, his turnout is down 60%.

    *** On the trail: Gingrich holds a Hispanic leadership event in California… Romney is in Arizona, where he attends a get-out-the-vote rally in Mesa… And Santorum holds a rally in Tacoma, WA.

    *** It’s not right, but it’s OK: Maybe the best way to judge if the White House’s compromise/accommodation on birth control was a success is if the issue is still a topic of conversation this week. And so far, it isn’t. (However, 42 conservative leaders say they’re opening a “united front to battle Obama” on this issue.) Indeed, it’s doubtful the issue will have any impact on November’s presidential contest. But don’t be surprised if it plays a role in some of the Senate contests, especially in the Midwest (Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin.). Tough for the cultural wedge issues to stay top of mind in a presidential. But down the ballot? Different story.

    *** Same script, different cast: All presidential budgets are political documents, and the one President Obama will unveil today -- in a presidential year -- is no different. The New York Times: “In his budget Mr. Obama again will commit to $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, including $1.5 trillion in tax revenue from the wealthy and from closing some corporate tax breaks, and reductions in spending for a range of programs, including the military, Medicare, farm subsidies and federal pensions. But Republicans are sure to criticize the president’s proposals as heavy on gimmickry and double-counting, and reject his proposed tax increases. For all the debate over deficits, Mr. Obama on Monday will highlight spending increases and tax cuts that he seeks, which are popular despite their impact on the federal debt.” He will discuss his budget at 11:00 am ET at Northern Virginia Community College in Annandale, VA. Bottom line on this budget: Thanks to some spending caps and other agreements from previous showdowns, this is a document designed for the presidential campaign -- Obama is emphasizing his spending priorities (coupled with some familiar tax policy) hoping to have THAT conversation with swing voters. So where does he start? In a swing state at a community college. This is a page, frankly, ripped from the Clinton playbook of the ‘90s.

    Countdown to Super Tuesday: 22 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 267 days

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