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  • 2016: Unbeatable?

    Newt Gingrich said on Meet the Press he thinks Hillary Clinton would be tough to beat for the GOP: “[I]f their [the GOP’s] competitor in ‘16 is going to be Hillary Clinton, supported by Bill Clinton and presumably a still relatively popular president Barack Obama, trying to win that will be truly the Super Bowl. And the Republican Party today is incapable of competing at that level. And it’s part of this cultural thing with our consultants. I mean, if you start out thinking giving away 47 percent of the country, by the way, which included retirees, it included veterans. You know, it was an absurdity. And-- and I think this is-- this is much more than Mitt Romney. We didn’t blow it because of Mitt Romney. We blew it because of a party which has refused to engage the reality of American life and refused to take-- to think through what the average American needs for a better future.”

    Cory Booker’s still thinking about running for governor, or maybe Senate? "I am absolutely considering running for governor, as well as giving other options some consideration."

    Show more
  • Rice under fire from left as Kerry's name won't go away

    It’s not just Benghazi anymore.

    One of the most controversial energy projects in the nation also has become a flash point in the drama surrounding who may become the next secretary of state – and it’s coming from the left instead of the right.

    Back on Nov. 28, “OnEarth,” published by the Natural Resources Defense Council, dug into U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice’s financial disclosures and found that she and her husband have a stake in TransCanada, the company pushing for the Keystone XL Pipeline to be built.

    NRDC officials say it's an important issue that must be discussed during the nomination process. But the timing of the report raises questions, as it is being surfaced by an environmental activist community that has previously given support to another potential secretary of state candidate – Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

    NBC News' Mark Murray explains why the partisan divide over the potential nomination of U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice is intensifying.

    The decision on whether to approve the pipeline goes through the State Department.

    “If confirmed by the Senate, one of Rice’s first duties likely would be consideration, and potentially approval, of the controversial mega-project,” Scott Dodd at “OnEarth” wrote. “Rice's financial holdings could raise questions about her status as a neutral decision maker.”

    Dodd noted that “Rice owns stock valued between $300,000 and $600,000 in TransCanada, the company seeking a federal permit to transport tar sands crude 1,700 miles to refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast, crossing fragile Midwest ecosystems and the largest freshwater aquifer in North America.”

    Bill McKibben, an anti-pipeline activist, told the publication: “It’s really amazing that they’re considering someone for Secretary of State who has millions invested in these companies. The State Department has been rife with collusion with the Canadian pipeline builders, and it’s really distressing to have any sense that that might continue to go on.”

    Susan Casey-Lefkowitz, the NRDC's director of international programs, sounded a less strident tone a day later: "What's most important is that she rid herself of her holdings in TransCanada and other tar sands-related companies, and we're confident she will do that ... What's most important is that we have a good, thorough review done.”

    Danielle Droitsch, a senior attorney for the NRDC and director of the Canada Project, told First Read: “We think Ambassador Rice has the credentials to be secretary of state, but if she were nominated, and then appointed, these holdings would have to be addressed.”

    She added that “high-level officials dealing with Keystone should not have any conflicts of interest.”

    The likelihood is that, if nominated, Rice will have to divest herself of her TransCanada investment to avoid a conflict of interest.

    Will new Obama appointments come this week? Is there a way to get both John Kerry and Susan Rice into the Obama cabinet? NBC News' Chuck Todd and Time's Joe Klein join the discussion.

    The environmental group’s effort to shed light on Rice’s financial interest in TransCanada could be just an attempt, if Rice is nominated, to get a “thorough review” and make sure it has a staunch ally in trying to thwart the project, as Casey-Lefkowitz said.

    But could it also be a signal that the NRDC prefers another candidate for the job – Kerry, the other of the final two candidates reportedly being considered for the post?

    After all, environmental groups have strongly supported Kerry in the past and have a long working relationship with him. Like they would for most Democrats in a presidential election, for example, the NRDC and the League of Conservation Voters, among others, ran ads in the 2004 election boosting Kerry.

    LCV even endorsed Kerry before the New Hampshire Democratic primary that year, although it has notably not spoken out about Rice.

    Droitsch, however, would not address whom the NRDC prefers for the job.

    “We’re trying to signal that the pipeline decision has to be conflict-free,” Droitsch said. “That would pertain to any potential nominee. The president has the prerogative to nominate the person he believes is best for the position.”

    The Senate will then raise questions, however, she said. And “now is important to raise the issue ... We want to make sure that anyone who’s being considered would be free of those conflicts. That’s our primary interest right now.”

    The NRDC, which has been very involved in efforts to block Keystone, is the environmental interest group most pressing the issue of Rice’s financials.

    But others might not be as keen to see Kerry leave Capitol Hill. After all, consider that green groups already spent a lot of money trying to oust Republican Scott Brown from the Senate – and were successful.

    But if Kerry becomes secretary of state (or even defense secretary), his seat would become vacant, raising the potential for a costly and competitive special election.

    “Who cares if the U.N. ambassador has a TransCanada stock. Who cares if the head of the FDA has TransCanada stock,” said a Democratic strategist and ally of the administration who is a veteran of confirmation battles.

    “If she [Rice] were to be nominated, she would go through a process by which we look for financials conflicts. Maybe this stock would be identified as something that posed a conflict, and she would sell," the strategist said. "But she hasn't gone through that process, because she's not a nominee to anything. If they want to say that if she is the nominee, she should sell the stock, that's fine. But you can't legitimately hit her for having it now. And that is likely why NRDC backed off and no other environmental groups have piled-on.”

    What really is going on here likely has less to do with Rice and whether she should ascend to secretary of state, and more with the NRDC leveraging pressure on the president and the administration to make sure the pipeline is rejected again once it comes up for approval. And that could be soon.

    The next step in that approval phase, in fact, could come as early as next week, Droitsch said. TransCanada has applied for a shortened pipeline in hopes of having that approved – something the NRDC strongly opposes. A Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement could be released by the State Department as early as next week, Droitsch said.

    “It is critically important for there to be independent decision-makers, free of conflict of interest, who can take an independent view,” she said.

    She then tied the administration’s decision on the pipeline to climate change, an issue that has regained prominence as a result of Hurricane Sandy. In the days following Sandy’s landfall, in fact, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed President Barack Obama for his leadership on climate change.

    How Obama decides on the pipeline “signals where the U.S. is headed in terms of importing dirty fuels, inconsistent with an administration that is committed to fighting climate change,” Droitsch said.

    “We’re confident President Obama understands the seriousness around the issues surrounding this pipeline. Approving it sends the wrong signal about our country’s commitment to climate change. Yes, he’s under a lot of pressure, but the public is very concerned about this. It’s not a decision I know he’ll view lightly.”

  • VIDEO: Week that Was: Averting the cliff?

    As NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss, the big story this week remained the negotiations to prevent the fiscal cliff, and there are signs of potential compromise. Also, South Carolina Republican Jim DeMint announced his resignation from the Senate to run the Heritage Foundation.

    Edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

  • Half a million Pell grants, 39 Biebers or one presidential campaign

    Lisa Lake / Getty Images

    Justin Bieber, seen here on Dec. 5, made $55 million this year. Multiply that 39 times and you've got the money spent on two presidential campaigns in 2012.

    Two political party candidates running for the presidency of the United States cost -- give or take -- about $2.142 billion. 

    That's the newest dollar amount on the campaign, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, showing that Barack Obama's campaign raised a total of $1.123 billion versus the Mitt Romney effort's $1.019 billion. 

    The 10-digit figure comes after an election season in which both sides issued dire warnings of being outspent by the other. In a December 2011 pronouncement by Obama's campaign manager, the idea that the incumbent's re-election effort would hit a billion dollar fundraising total was roundly dismissed as "bulls****." 

    For the benefit of campaign-weary voters -- especially those who endured endless e-mail appeals for dollars and wall-to-wall television advertising during the 2012 campaign -- here's a sampling of just what else $2.142 billion can get: 

    -- 3,570 MINE-RESISTANT AMBUSH PROTECTED (MRAP) VEHICLES at an estimated cost of $600,000 per truck.

    -- 577,202 PELL GRANTS at a value of the 2011-2012 average of $3,711 per recipient.

    -- THE DALLAS COWBOYS (arguably the most valuable sports team in the world at $2.1 million, per Forbes.) 

    -- 0.733 PERCENT OF THE DEFICIT ... for the first two months of fiscal year 2013, already at $292 billion.

    -- DJIBOUTI (almost twice): The African nation's estimated gross domestic product in 2011 was $1.219 billion. 

    -- 17 of EDVARD MUNCH'S 1895 PASTEL OF "THE SCREAM," which sold for $119.9 million at auction this May (okay, if there were 17 of them, it would have been cheaper, but you get the point.)  

    -- ONE YEAR OF U.S. FOREIGN AID TO SUDAN, RWANDA, UGANDA, ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA: Based on FY 2011 actual aid assistance funds.

    -- 4.3 MILLION iPADs at a value of $499 each.

    -- $17.60 FOR EVERY AMERICAN WHO VOTED FOR EITHER CANDIDATE, per The New York Time's most recent popular vote count.

    -- 6 MILLION CHILDRENS' SCHOOL LUNCHES FOR ONE YEAR based on FY 2011 costs and recipients from the National School Lunch Program.

     -- THE ANNUAL SALARIES OF 73,456 BUS DRIVERSbased on a median pay of $29,160.

     -- THE ANNUAL SALARIES OF 11,333 FAMILY PRACTITIONERS OR PEDIATRICIANS, based on an average $189,000 annual base pay.

    -- THE ANNUAL SALARIES OF 39 JUSTIN BIEBERS, who earned $55 million this year. 

  • US Supreme Court to take up same-sex marriage issue

    Just a day after Washington became the latest state to allow gay couples to marry, the U.S. Supreme Court will take a serious look at same-sex marriage for the first time ever. NBC's Pete Williams reports.

    The U.S. Supreme Court agreed Friday to take its first serious look at the issue of gay marriage, granting review of California's ban on same-sex marriage and of a federal law that defines marriage as only the legal union of a man and a woman.

    At the very least, the court will look at this question: When states choose to permit the marriages of same-sex couples, can the federal government refuse to recognize their validity?  But by also taking up the California case, the court could get to the more fundamental question of whether the states must permit marriages by gay people in the first place.


    The California case involves a challenge to Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment approved by 52 percent of voters in 2008.  It banned same-sex marriages in the state and went into effect after 18,000 couples were legally married earlier that year.

    A federal judge declared the ban unconstitutional, and a federal appeals court upheld that ruling, though on narrower grounds that apply only to California.  Now that the Supreme Court is wading into the battle, the justices could decide the more basic issue of whether any state can ban same-sex marriage under the Constitution's guarantee of equal protection of the law.  Or they could limit their ruling to apply only to the ban in California.

    Recommended: O'Malley touts same-sex marriage - with signing photo and 'contribute' button

    Nine states and the District of Columbia have moved to permit same-sex marriage or soon will — Connecticut, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Vermont, and Washington. 

    Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images file

    Same-sex marriage proponent Kat McGuckin of Oaklyn, New Jersey, holds a gay marriage pride flag while standing in front of the Supreme Court Nov. 30, 2012 in Washington, DC.

    The Supreme Court also agreed Friday to hear a challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act, known as DOMA, passed by overwhelming margins in both houses of Congress in 1996 and signed by President Clinton.  A provision of the law specifies that, for federal purposes, "the word 'marriage' means only a legal union between one man and one woman as husband and wife."

    Congress acted out of concern that a 1993 state court decision in Hawaii, which held that the state could not deny marriage licenses to same sex couples, might force other states to recognize gay marriage.  As it turned out, Hawaii did not adopt same-sex marriage.

    Because of DOMA, gay couples who wed in the nine states where same-sex marriage is permitted are considered legally married only under state law.  The federal government is barred from recognizing their marriages.  As a result, they are denied over 1,000 federal benefits that are available to traditional couples.

    After first supporting DOMA in court, the Obama administration concluded last year that it violated the Constitution's guarantee of equal protection under the law.

    "We cannot defend the federal government poking its nose into what states are doing and putting the thumb on the scale against same-sex couples," President Obama said in explaining the change.

    Recommended: In lame duck session, positioning begins for immigration debate in 2013

    Gay married couples in five states filed lawsuits challenging DOMA as an unconstitutional denial of their right to equal protection.  After the Obama Justice Department declined to defend the law, House Republicans stepped in to carry on the legal fight.

    NBC's Pete Williams reports on the Supreme Court's decision to take up two cases dealing with DOMA and California's Prop 8.

    Defenders of DOMA argue that the law helps preserve traditional marriage.

    "Unions of two men or two women are not the same thing as a marriage between a man and a woman. And only marriage between a man and a woman can connect children to their mother and father and their parents to the children," says Brian Brown of the National Organization for Marriage.

    A Supreme Court decision striking down the Defense of Marriage Act would not, by itself, require states to allow same-sex marriages.  But the federal government would be required to recognize those marriages in the states where they are legal.

    The cases will be argued before the justices in March, with a decision expected by late June.

  • Obama inauguration will take unlimited corporate funds

     

    President Barack Obama will accept unlimited corporate contributions to help finance his 2013 inauguration, a shift from 2009, when corporate funding was barred and per-person donations were capped at $50,000.

    The president's inaugural committee made the decision, which was first reported by Politico, because, they said, contributions from individuals alone would not raise enough to cover the price tag of all the events.

    "Our goal is to make sure that we will meet the fundraising requirements for this civic event after the most expensive presidential campaign in history," Addie Whisenant, spokesperson for the Presidential Inauguration Committee, said in a statement.

    The inaugural committee in 2008 said that its ban on corporate funding, among other initiatives, would help "underscore their commitment to change business as usual in Washington."

    Lobbyists and political action committees are still barred from donating, and there will be no sponsorship agreements. All corporate contributions will be vetted and the committee will not accept any from companies who accepted TARP funds and haven't paid them back yet.

    The inaugural committee also notes that these are the same guidelines to which civic organizations like arts museums and the American Red Cross adhere.

  • Boehner: 'No progress' toward resolving fiscal cliff

     

    House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, emerged Friday to say that "no progress" had been made on resolving the impending "fiscal cliff."

    Capitol Hill's top Republican said that talks with President Barack Obama toward resolving the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled for the beginning of next year continued to stall; Boehner renewed his demand that Obama submit a new plan for evaluation by lawmakers.

    Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-Ohio, tells a group of reporters that "no progress" had been made on resolving the impending "fiscal cliff."

    "This isn't a progress report because there's no progress to report," the speaker said at a brief press conference Friday morning on Capitol Hill.

    The issue of taxes continues to ensnare negotiations on the fiscal cliff. The Obama administration has demanded that income tax rates be increased for the wealthiest Americans; Republicans made a counter-offer earlier this week that would raise revenue by closing loopholes and deductions, but would also preserve existing tax rates, all of which are set to expire at the end of this year unless Congress acts.

    "It's time for the president, if he's serious, to come back to us with a counter-offer," said Boehner, asking at a later point: "When is he [Obama] going to take a step toward us?"

    The president rejected the Republican plan as unbalanced because it allowed for no increase in income tax rates on the wealthiest Americans, a priority on which Obama campaigned for re-election this fall. His original proposal, presented last week to lawmakers by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, called for increased rates. What Republicans are now demanding is a new version of Obama's plan.

    At the same time, Boehner is facing countervailing pressures among rank-and-file Republicans over his management of the impending fiscal cliff. Some conservatives have complained that the GOP leadership's offer to collect new revenue constitutes a betrayal of the low-taxes philosophy which has long characterized the modern Republican Party. At the same time, some Republicans have called for the extension of tax rates for most Americans so as to prevent the political impact of a tax increase for middle class families on Jan. 1, if a deal cannot be reached.

  • First Thoughts: The GOP establishment strikes back?

    The GOP establishment strikes back?... But in the long run, DeMint could make the conservative (and anti-establishment) movement even more powerful… Is the Senate losing its inside influence?... South Carolina, the place to be in 2014… The monthly job numbers: 146,000 jobs created in November, unemployment rate dips to 7.7%... The one-billion-dollar men: Both Team Obama and Team Romney raise more than $1 billion each… Another labor battle in the Midwest -- this time in Michigan… And welcome back, Alan Grayson.  

    *** The GOP establishment strikes back? An interesting thing has happened in the month since the Republican Party’s losses in the November election: The GOP establishment has struck back -- at least in the short term. Consider the evidence: In the race for GOP conference chair, the establishment-backed Cathy McMorris Rodgers defeated the more conservative Tom Price. John Boehner’s position as speaker seems stronger than it has before. More and more congressional Republicans are signaling that they’re open to raising taxes (as long as they get something in return). And then yesterday, Sen. Jim DeMint, one of the biggest thorns in the GOP establishment’s side, announced that he was leaving the Senate in January to lead the conservative Heritage Foundation. While the DeMint-founded PAC Senate Conservatives Fund backed some of the rising stars in the party (Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz), it also supported candidates that went on to lose potential lay-up contests (Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, Christine O’Donnell, Richard Mourdock). It’s a question worth pondering: Would Mitch McConnell be the incoming majority leader if DeMint’s PAC and activism didn’t exist?

    J. Scott Applewhite / AP

    House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, accompanied by the House GOP leadership, gestures as he speak to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2012, following a closed-door GOP strategy session. From left are, House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of Calif., Boehner, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Va.

    ***  But in the long run, DeMint could make the conservative movement more powerful : Yet the establishment GOP’s new mojo is only a short-term development for now. It’s very possible that, in the long run, DeMint could make the conservative -- and anti-establishment -- movement even stronger from the outside. If Dick Armey could organize conservative forces in 2009-2010, just think what someone like DeMint could do; he very well could turn Heritage into a Club for Growth on steroids. As a prominent conservative told one of us, DeMint could very well “become the CEO of the conservative movement” at Heritage. In fact, DeMint   told Rush Limbaugh yesterday   that he could have a greater impact on politics from outside the Senate than inside of it. “I believe that I can do more good for the conservative movement outside of the Senate in leveraging the assets of the Heritage Foundation to communicate a more positive, optimistic message to the American people.”

    NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the comeback of the House Republican establishment and Sen. Jim DeMint's resignation to lead the Heritage Foundation.

    ***  The Senate and its influence: Chew on that quote above for a few minutes. What does it say about the institution of the Senate that a member has more potential power outside of it than inside it? Is it a recognition that if you’re not in leadership, you can’t be as influential as you want to be? That’s always been a reality of the House. But the Senate, too?

    *** South Carolina -- the place to be in 2014: With DeMint’s exit, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) gets to appoint a successor through 2014. Some of the possibilities: U.S. Rep. Tim Scott (who is African American and is the favorite among many conservatives), U.S. Rep. Mick Mulvaney, former U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett (whom Haley defeated in the 2010 SC GOP GOV runoff), former state Attorney General Henry McMaster (who also competed in that crowded GOV field), state Rep. Nathan Ballentine (a close Haley ally), and the governor's deputy chief of staff Ted Pitts (a former legislator). Perhaps more importantly, South Carolina will have three marquee contests in 2014 -- two Senate seats and a governorship will all be up for grabs, and there are plenty of ambitious state Republicans who want these positions. But it’s also not out of the realm of possibility that a Democrat could emerge to be a player in one of these races, taking advantage of what could turn into some nasty and ugly GOP primaries. If you’re a young political reporter, move to Columbia. It could very well be the most fascinating place to be in 2013-2014. And don’t forget: As an early presidential primary state, 2016 will be impacted by what takes place in the state in 2014.

    *** The monthly jobs numbers: 146,000 jobs created in November; unemployment rate drops to 7.7%: You know the presidential election is over when today’s monthly jobs report is far from your top political story of the day. Indeed, the Wall Street Journal calls today’s report the “Least important jobs report in 5 years.” One reason why is that the election is over. Another reason is the potential impact that Hurricane Sandy made. But given Sandy, the numbers are surprisingly strong. The AP: “The U.S. economy added a solid 146,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent, the lowest since December 2008. The government said Superstorm Sandy had only a minimal effect on the figures.” Two economists indicated to one of us that Sandy was worth a loss of 80,000-100,000 jobs. So imagine what this report would be without Sandy?

    *** The One-Billion-Dollar Men: Politico notes that, with the final numbers in, both Team Obama and Team Romney raised more than $1 billion. “Obama: $1.123 billion vs. Romney: $1.019 billion. That’s the final fundraising tally in the most expensive presidential election ever, according to reports filed Thursday with the Federal Election Commission by the rival campaigns and party committees.”

    *** Another labor battle in the Midwest: And here’s the top political story outside of Washington, per the Detroit Free Press: “Michigan, considered the birthplace of the American organized labor movement, was on a fast track to becoming the nation's 24th right-to-work state late Thursday after the state House and Senate passed bills as part of a package to pass the law. Labor and Democrats were pushing back hard against the Workplace Fairness and Equity Act, but the efforts seemed futile as the controversial measures moved like greased lightning -- and without going through committees or public debate -- and could land on Gov. Rick Snyder's desk by next week. The debate raged across Michigan, and the country on Thursday, as to whether the legislation would do what proponents say, bring fairness to workers and spark economic growth; or do as opponents claim, lower wages and benefits and destroy the middle class.”

    *** Welcome back, Alan Grayson: NBC’s Carrie Dann has profiled 10 new members to watch in the next Congress. Today’s profile: Alan Grayson (and he’s a familiar face). “He's ba-ack. Alan Grayson, the quotable liberal firebrand whose zippy insults served as cable catnip during his previous stint in Congress, will be back on the Hill again next year. After losing his 2010 re-election bid, Grayson moved to a new Orlando district and sailed to victory this year over Republican Todd Long. The man who disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner once labeled as ‘one fry short of a happy meal,’ has garnered frequent outrage for his rhetorical bombs. He was forced to apologize after referring to a banking lobbyist as a ‘K Street whore’; he said Florida Gov. Rick Scott would have ‘blood on his hands’ if he did not implement some parts of the health-care plan; and he accused Republicans of offering only the health-care proposal that sick people should ‘die quickly.’ He was roundly beaten by Republican Daniel Webster in 2010 but will return having won by a 25-point margin in a redrawn district. Cable news bookers, start your engines.” 

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  • Programming notes

    *** Friday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Rep. Adam Schiff, Perry Bacon & David Drucker on the fiscal cliff negotiations; Jim Tankersley on the job numbers; Chip Saltsman and Steve Elmendorf face off on Sen. Jim DeMint’s departure; AFSCME’s Chuck Lawless on unions’ new adcampaign to protect Medicare & Medicaid; and James Oberg on whether NASA is losing its lead in the world.

    *** Friday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Richard Lui, filling in for Thomas Roberts, interviews Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), Fmr. Biden Economic adviser Jared Bernstein, CNBC Contributor Ron Insana and MSNBC Host Melissa Harris Perry.

    *** Friday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include former RNC Chairman Michael Steele, Politico’s Ben White, Salon.com Editor-at-Large Joan Walsh, theGrio.com Managing Editor Joy Reid, BuzzFeed Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith, and msnbc “UP” host Chris Hayes.

    *** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: Today’s guests include former Defense Secretary William Cohen, NPR’s Ari Shapiro, The Economist’s Greg Ip, the head of the Campaign to Fix the Debt Maya MacGuineas, Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, USA Today’s Susan Page, and National Journal’s Chris Frates

    *** Friday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: Today’s guests include Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), Rep. Peter Welch (d-VT), the Washington Post’s Lori Montgomery, Democratic strategist Blake Zeff, The Daily Beast Contributor Zachary Karabell, Constitutional Law expert Kenji Yoshino.

    *** Saturday’s and Sunday’s “Weekend with Alex Witt”: As part of her weekly “Office Politics” series, MSNBC’s Alex Witt interviews the New York Times’ Nick Kristof.

  • Obama agenda: One-on-one?

    The  New York Times: “At House Speaker John A. Boehner’s request, Senate leaders and Representative Nancy Pelosi have been excluded from talks to avert a fiscal crisis, leaving it to Mr. Boehner and President Obama alone to find a deal, Congressional aides say. All sides, even the parties excluded, say clearing the negotiating room improves the chance of success. It adds complexity as the two negotiators consult separately with the leaders not in the room. But it also minimizes the number of people who need to say yes to an initial agreement.”

    “On Thursday, with the House out of session, White House congressional liaison Rob Nabors trekked to Capitol Hill and delivered a firm message: We aren’t moving,” Politico writes. “In a meeting with leadership staff, Nabors reiterated the administration’s hard line that tax rates on top earners must go up, according to Republican sources with knowledge of the meeting.”

    “Vice President Biden gets involved in the anti-fiscal cliff campaign on Friday, meeting with people who would see tax hikes if Congress and the White House are unable to reach a debt reduction deal,” USA Today writes. “The White House says Biden ‘will have lunch with a group of middle class Americans,’ and‘make the case for preserving tax cuts for 98% of Americans and 97% of small businesses.’”

    Obama’s approval in a new AP-GFK poll is 57%.

    Obama’s headed to Michigan Monday on fiscal cliff. Meanwhile, eight were arrested after protests shut down the Michigan state capitol over right-to-work laws were passed. The White House reiterated its opposition to those.

    “Republicans slammed right-to-work legislation through the Michigan House and Senate Thursday, drawing raucous protests from throngs of stunned union supporters, whose outnumbered Democratic allies were powerless to stop it,” the Chicago Tribune writes.

    The New York Times: “A state police official said pepper spray was used on one of eight protesters arrested inside the Capitol after state troopers were rushed trying to prevent the demonstration from spilling into the Senate chambers, where lawmakers were meeting.”

    “When President Obama first warned Syria’s leader, President Bashar al-Assad, that even making moves toward using chemical weapons would cross a ‘red line’ that might force the United States to drop its reluctance to intervene in the country’s civil war, Mr. Obama took an expansive view of where he drew that boundary,” the New York Times writes.

    “The US State Department expressed concern Thursday over the influence of fundamentalist groups in Syria, including the Al-Nusra Front, which is said to have ties to Al-Qaeda,” AFP writes. “As opposition fighters in Syria struggle to topple the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters that groups like Al-Nusra are increasingly ‘a matter of concern’ to Washington.”

  • Congress: DeMint exits

    “Sen. Jim DeMint, patron saint of the tea party and a would-be Republican kingmaker, announced suddenly Thursday he would resign his South Carolina seat to head Washington’s conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, a shift that reverberated through a soul-searching GOP,” the AP writes, adding, “Prizing ideology over electability, DeMint sometimes infuriated fellow Republicans, picking sides in GOP primaries with decidedly mixed results. He had no patience for centrist Republicans, pushing the party to the right while bankrolling candidates with millions from his political action committee, the Senate Conservatives Fund. In 2010, candidates he ardently supported cost the GOP eminently winnable seats.”

    His replacement, by the way, will not be SC Gov. Nikki Haley, who hold appointment power. She ruled that out in a radio interview, per McClatchy: “No, I will not be appointing myself. That is not even an option, not something I’m considering at all.”

    What would you do for $1 million a year?

    By the numbers:

    $174,000 – pay for a United States senator.

    $1 million – what the outgoing head of Heritage made last year.

    “South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint accomplished very little in the Senate in the traditional sense: He wasn’t a legislator, has no signature laws to his name and has never been part of any major bipartisan negotiations,” Politico says. “But the fact that DeMint leaves the chamber as one of its best-known conservative senators shows how a message man relying on the outside P.R. game can become a powerhouse in his party — often with more influence than the Senate’s old bulls and their laundry list of accomplishments. It also shows how the powerful, ideologically rigid voices outside Capitol Hill urging Republicans to stay true to their conservative principles tend to be the real driving forces in the halls of Congress.”

    DeMint went almost immediately on Rush Limbaugh’s radio show:

    LIMBAUGH: “I think it’s safe to say that Boehner is not forcing either of you guys out, right?”

    DEMINT: “It might work a little bit the other way, Rush.”

    “Republican Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who stunned his colleagues when he announced Thursday he will leave the Senate to head a conservative think tank, said he expects his successor to be named within the next week,” USA Today writes. And, even though he’s made clear he wants Rep. Tim Scott to succeed him, he said, “I told Governor Haley that I would support her recommendation and that I trusted her. It's her decision, not mine."

    McConnell’s misstep… “Mr. McConnell, believing that some Democrats would vote against thepresident’s proposal, moved Thursday to put it on the Senate floor for a quick vote,” the New York Timeswrites. “If it could not muster a majority, Republicans were ready to say that Mr. Obama could not even unify his own party. But Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Senate majority leader, called Mr. McConnell’s bluff. He said he would put the debt-ceiling proposal to a vote if Mr. McConnell would let itpass with a simple majority, rather than a filibuster-proof 60 votes. Seeing he had overplayed his hand, Mr. McConnell objected.”

    “Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was for a vote to grant the president power to hike the debt limit before he was against it,” National Journal writes. “Within a matter of hours on Thursday, the Republican leader was furiously backpedaling from his own move to force a vote on President Obama’s request for unlimited future borrowing authority. McConnell demanded such a vote in the morning, but by afternoon Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., called his counterpart’s bluff and pressed for an up-or-down vote himself. … It was the rare strategic misstep for a man often described as one of the Senate’s most guiling tacticians. In a week of posturing and positioning on Capitol Hill, people on both sides of the aisle acknowledged that McConnell’s failed maneuver cost the GOP some precious negotiating ground. The question was how much.”

  • Decision 2013, 2014, 2016: Mr. Christie goes to Washington

    BUSH: “The top spot belonged first to a Bush and then to a Clinton. Now, in a familiar American formula, the National Constitution Center is turning again to a Bush,” the Philadelphia Inquirer writes.

     

    CHRISTIE: “When New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie swept through Washington, D.C., on Thursday to lobby for funds to rebuild his state after Hurricane Sandy, he brought along public approval ratings higher than any of the elected officials he met with, including his storm buddy President Obama,” USA Todaywrites, adding, “Recovery from the storm will be the central theme of next year's governor's race, says Rider University political scientist Ben Dworkin. Christie has estimated costs of the storm at close to $40 billion just in New Jersey.”

    Christie rejected setting up a state-run health-care exchange. Ironically, he was in DC trying to get money for Sandy relief efforts.

    VIRGINIA: NBC’s Richmond affiliate reports: “Yesterday we outlined at length Terry McAuliffe's explanation as to why he chose to open a manufacturing plant for his Green Car company in Mississippi instead of here in Virginia. The plant opened to great fanfare in July and was helping to establish McAuliffe's credentials as a businessman willing to invest in green technology as a long term economic solution. But for McAuliffe, who purchased the Chinese company shortly after losing the democratic primary for governor in 2009, the fact that the plant and it's potential one thousand jobs ended up in Mississippi was a mystery. Especially because McAuliffe never really stopped running for governor. He touted this week that he has attended some 2,400 political events in Virginia over the past four years.”

  • Decision 2012: Regrets, they had a few (or didn’t)

    Lois Romano writes of delusion in the 2012 campaign, including Stu Stevens thinking the Jeep ad helped them, that the Clint Eastwood speech was not a “big deal.” He also said he found it “very, very difficult” working with large media organizations to put on debates and that they shouldn’t be sponsoring them. Oh, it was Sandy’s fault, too.

    The Obama campaign, meanwhile, didn’t realize it needed the help of Super PACs and thought not engaging in the first debate would have been a good idea.

    This is all it costs apparently for status quo… “Campaign finance filings with the government now show that the cost of the 2012 U.S. presidential race has surpassed $2 billion, a new record,” AP writes.

    “After vowing not to spend any money on behalf of Todd Akin's U.S. Senate bid, national Republicans pumped $760,000 into the Show-Me State just a few days before voters went to the polls,” Gannettwrites. “New campaign finance filings show that the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent $360,000 to the Missouri Republican Party's federal campaign committee on Nov. 1. And the NRSC —which is charged with electing GOP candidates to the Senate — sent another $400,000 on Nov. 2.”

    PoliticalWire: “Mitt Romney's presidential campaign had $25.7 million left in the bank days after the Nov. 6 presidential election, Reuters reports.”

  • Who will fill DeMint's Senate seat?

    In a surprising twist of political fortunes casting a deep impact on the South Carolina political landscape, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) announced today that he would resign his U.S. Senate seat to take over the helm of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. 

    Not surprisingly, DeMint's announcement has set off a flurry of speculation over whom Republican Gov. Nikki Haley would choose to replace the Tea Party-backed DeMint. 

    The Palmetto State will now hold three marquee statewide contests in 2014 -- two Senate seats and the governorship -- creating potential opportunities for several South Carolina Republicans.

    "It puts us right in the middle of the political epicenter," said former South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson. "It will showcase how diverse of a field we have and which we don't get enough credit for," he said. 

    The big question remains whether Haley will opt to name a "place holder" (in the light of Paul Kirk in Massachusetts or Ted Kauffman of Delaware) who publicly announces intentions not to seek the special election in 2014, and run herself for the open-seat instead of re-election for governor. Or does she choose a successor to DeMint who will have the resources and credibility to defend the seat in a special election in two years?  

    "Whether it's a guardian or a replacement who defends the seat in two years, we have a deep bench of conservative candidates in South Carolina," said Dawson. "Gov. Haley will avoid the noise, make the right choice and it will be a strong decision," he said. 

    If Haley chooses the second option, three potential placeholders are Deputy Chief of Staff Ted Pitts (a former SC legislator), Nathan Ballentine (a current member of the South Carolina assembly with strong ties to Haley), and former Attorney General Henry McMaster (who competed against Haley for governor in 2010).
     
    Republicans familiar with Haley's thinking don't believe that shadow ideology of either DeMint or Sen. Lindsey Graham will play a role in her selection.

    "She's going to pick someone who lines up with her own philosophy rather than a clone of DeMint or Graham," the GOP source said. 

    There has been speculation in recent weeks that Lindsey Graham -- who is known to seek compromise and broker deals in the Senate and who recently said he could violate the Grover Norquist pledge -- would face a primary opponent. DeMint's announcement possibly changes the political landscape much to Graham's benefit.

    "I don't think there is a happier person in South Carolina right now, than Lindsey Graham," said Joel Sawyer a South Carolina Republican operative. "I don't think anyone saw this coming," he said. 

    If he is forced to face a primary, a field of modest candidates taking aim at Graham will be better for the two-term incumbent versus a strong credible challenger jockeying to face him one on one. The conventional wisdom suggests than a serious well-resourced candidate will likely choose to seek the open seat than battle Graham in costly primary. 

    U.S. Reps. Tim Scott and Mick Mulvaney have also been mentioned as possible contenders for an open Senate seat or as a candidate for governor should Haley run for the Senate seat.  

    "He is definitely interested in running for the Senate," said a Mulvaney ally who requested anonymity to speak more candidly. "He has expressed interest about seeking the seat if Sen. DeMint were to retire and now we will wait to see who the governor appoints and assess the race after she's made a decision," they said. 

    "Mulvaney is a rock star in South Carolina," Dawson said. "He took on a budget chairman who was in office for 28 years [Democrat John Spratt], and no one thought he could win."

  • Republicans start process of moving forward after election defeat

    J. Scott Applewhite / AP

    FILE - In this April 5, 2011 file photo, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., touts his 2012 federal budget during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington. Ryan is getting his groove back. A month after the GOP's presidential ticket lost an election, the party's vice presidential nominee finds himself comfortably back in his political wheelhouse on Capitol Hill and in the thick of a debate over how to avert automatic tax increases and spending cuts that many economists fear could cripple the economy if Congress doesn't head them off by Jan. 1. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

     

    Republican luminaries like Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio have begun to step forward to call for the GOP to re-fashion itself as a more broadly appealing party. But in truth, the work of deciphering the party's path forward has hardly begun.

    It'll take more than a handful of speeches just a few weeks after the election to accomplish the task of remaking the Republican Party into a more appealing brand. The Republican National Committee has established a task force to conduct a full review of the 2012 election and how the party might proceed, but its work has only just begun; a group of digital operatives met Thursday in Washington for one of the initial autopsy sessions.

    There were many lessons during the 2012 campaign such as the importance of the Hispanic vote, the role of Super PACs and the use of micro-targeting but what were some of the more delusional moments of the campaign? Politico's David Catanese discusses.

    But the review could stretch for months, through the course of December's fiscal cliff negotiations and the RNC's meetings to choose officials in January (not to mention the holiday season). And scores of outside organizations are now working on their own contributions to the party-wide soul searching effort that began in the wake of  Mitt Romney's loss to President Barack Obama and disappointing showings in down-ballot campaigns.

    Recommended: DeMint will leave Senate to head Heritage Foundation

    And some Republicans counsel that a sharp reorientation might not even be needed.

    “It's idiotic to look at the election night results and draw gigantic conclusions that the end of the world is here,” said Dave Carney, a Republican consultant who served as Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s chief strategist. “We have a lot to learn, and we shouldn't look at it with rose-colored glasses. But we shouldn't panic, either.”

    That hasn't halted some leading Republicans -- including possible 2016 presidential hopefuls -- from trying to harness the process, and put their own imprint upon it.

    Rubio, a Florida senator, spoke Tuesday at a dinner honoring the late GOP vice presidential candidate Jack Kemp, in which he emphasized a sort of conservatism that would focus squarely on the "middle class" -- a term he mentioned 30 times during his remarks at the dinner.

    Rubio shared the stage with Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, fresh off of defeat as Romney's running mate. He also emphasized a more broadly-inclusive Republican Party (and implicitly distancing himself from Romney's infamous remarks about the "47 percent" of Americans who he said depend on government).

    Steve Pope / Getty Images

    Sen. Marco Rubio speaks on Nov. 17 in Altoona, Iowa.

    "Both parties tend to divide Americans into 'our voters' and 'their voters,'" Ryan said. "But Republicans must steer far clear of that trap. We must speak to the aspirations and anxieties of every American."

    The post-election review has a much broader scope than ideology, though. Thursday’s meeting between the Romney and RNC digital teams was one of the first after-action confabs to rehash what worked and what didn’t during the election.

    The Republicans concluded, according to an official who attended the meeting and asked to speak on background to offer more candid details, that the party is a better financial and digital positions than ever. The RNC will inherit a 500,000-strong donor file (90 percent of whom were unique to the Romney campaign) and 2.2 new active members of their email list from Romney.

    But Republicans are also asking themselves how they might better leverage their digital operations to match the success of the Obama campaign. And the GOP is beginning to mull how it might better integrate its digital operations with other departments.

    Recommended - First Thoughts: A deal is in sight -- the question is how big

    But while the Republican transformation is wide-reaching, that shouldn’t minimize the role of ideology  -- or, more importantly, tone.

    A number of politically savvy Republican leaders have also expressed frustration toward the party's tone. GOP Senate candidates Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin did little to help the party's standing with women after making comments about rape. And Romney's own rhetoric toward illegal immigrants -- speaking of how he favored the "self-deportation" -- contributed to Republicans' worse showing among Latino voters in recent electoral history.

    "America is a nation of immigrants. Immigrants have helped build the country that we have become, and immigrants can help build a dynamic tomorrow," former President George W. Bush said in a rare public speech on Tuesday. "Not only do immigrants help build our economy, they invigorate our soul."

    But as the party turns toward a second Obama term, there are several inflection points that will serve as a testing ground for Republicans. The gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey could offer instructive lessons, along with a series of special elections that will inevitably appear.

    “This is a process that will take four years, in the governorships and the off-year and midterm elections,” Carney said. “It will give people a chance to test those ideas and messages. Presidential candidates will adapt.”

  • DeMint group's mixed win-loss record

    The Senate Conservatives Fund, the political action committee founded by retiring Sen. Jim DeMint R-SC) had a VERY MIXED record when backing Senate candidates.

    Mandel Ngan / AFP - Getty Images file

    Sen. Jim DeMint, R-SC, speaks during The Family Research Council (FRC) Action Values Voter Summit on Sept. 14, 2012 at a hotel in Washington, DC.

    Related: DeMint will leave Senate to head Heritage Foundation

    Out of the 20 candidates the organization gave money to, 15 won their primaries -- but just seven won the general election.

    The winners included Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz.

    The losers included Sharron Angle, Christine O'Donnell, Ken Buck, and Richard Mourdock.

    Total candidates receiving funds from Senate Conservatives Fund: 20
    Total who won primaries: 15
    Total who won general election: 7

    2010
    Marlin Stutzman - IN - lost primary
    Sharron Angle -- V -- won primary, lost general
    Ken Buck -- CO -- won primary, lost general
    Chuck Devore -- CA -- lost primary
    Ron Johnson -- WI -- won primary, won general*
    Ovide Lamontagne -- NH -- lost primary
    Mike Lee -- UT -- won primary, won general*
    Joe Miller -- AK -- won primary, lost general
    O'Donnell -- DE -- won primary, lost general
    Paul -- KY -- won primary, won general*
    Raese -- WV -- won primary, lost general
    Rossi -- WA -- won primary, lost general
    Marco Rubio -- FL -- won primary, won general*
    Pat Toomey -- PA -- won primary, won general*

    2012
    Ted Cruz -- TX -- won primary, won general*
    Jeff Flake -- AZ -- won primary, won general*
    Josh Mandel -- OH -- won primary, lost general
    Richard Mourdock -- IN -- won primary, lost general
    Mark Neumann -- WI -- lost primary
    Don Stenberg -- NE -- lost primary

  • Jeb Bush to chair National Constitution Center; gets non-partisan nod from Bill Clinton

     

    Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, rumored to be mulling a 2016 bid for president, will become chairman of the National Constitution Center, according to a press release from the center.

    Top Talkers: Three weeks after his re-election, a majority of the country approves of the job President Obama is doing, a new CNN/ORC poll shows. And in New Jersey, current Gov. Chris Christie has announced his bid for re-election, and a new poll should be an encouraging sign. 77 percent of N.J. approves of his job, according to a new poll. The Morning Joe panel discusses.

    Bush will succeed former President Bill Clinton as chairman and follow in his father George H.W. Bush's footsteps, who served in the role before Clinton.

    Clinton praised Bush's ability to work with supporters "regardless of party" in the release. 

    "It has been a great honor to serve as the Center's Board Chairman for the past three years," Clinton said, "and I couldn't be more pleased that Gov. Bush will lead this world-class museum into the future. Gov. Bush will be an eloquent spokesman for the Center's mission and will work well with all of the Center's supporters regardless of party."

  • O'Malley touts same-sex marriage - with signing photo and 'contribute' button

    O'Say Can You See PAC

    Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley's PAC sent out this photo to supporters of him signing a proclamation certifying the 2012 election results. That includes a ballot initiative that passed making same-sex marriage legal in the state.

     

    Oh say, you can see the 2016 election. 

    Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) sent out a letter through his “O’Say Can You See PAC” (yes, that is its real name) touting his signing of a proclamation certifying the 2012 election results.

    “This means that Maryland courthouses can now issue licenses to same-sex couples to get married starting in January 2013,” O’Malley writes.

    Following that is a large photo of O’Malley signing in his office.

    He adds, “After months of hard work, we came together to pass a bill that treats everyone fairly and equally under the law while protecting religious freedom. We then became the first state ever to defend marriage equality at the ballot box. We still face tremendous challenges as a nation, but it is my sincere hope that we can come together to meet those challenges with greater respect for the dignity of every individual. Maryland, let's continue to move forward.”

    “Forward” was President Obama’s 2012 campaign slogan. And there’s a big, red “contribute” button at the bottom of the email.

    O'Malley's term as governor is up in January 2015. He is thought to be mulling a bid for president in 2016.

  • DeMint will leave Senate to head Heritage Foundation

     

    Updated 12:44 p.m. - South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, an influential Republican who has helped prod his party rightward, will step down from his seat in January to become the next director of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

    NBC's Chuck Todd and Kelly O'Donnell discuss the departure of Tea Party favorite from the US Senate, and possible replacements South Carolina Gov. Haley could pick.

    DeMint announced Thursday that he planned to succeed Ed Feulner, the longtime head of the Heritage Foundation, next month. The news of his departure was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

    "I'm leaving the Senate now, but I'm not leaving the fight. I've decided to join The Heritage Foundation at a time when the conservative movement needs strong leadership in the battle of ideas," DeMint said in a statement. "No organization is better equipped to lead this fight and I believe my experience in public office as well as in the private sector as a business owner will help Heritage become even more effective in the years to come."

    The Heritage Foundation said DeMint's "passion for rigorous research, his dedication to the principles of our nation’s founding, and his ability to translate policy ideas into action make him an ideal choice to lead Heritage to even greater success."

    Since being elected to the Senate in 2004, DeMint has not-infrequently clashed with Republican leaders on specific pieces of legislation and the overall direction of the party.

    His conservative obstinance made him a hero among the party's grassroots. DeMint wielded that influence through his Senate Conservatives Fund, supporting more ideologically pure candidates over candidates deemed more politically-able by Republican Party leaders.

    DeMint had even been rumored in 2011 to be thinking of challenging Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell for the position of Republican leader, though he eventually declined.

    Among DeMint's successes through his Senate Conservatives Fund was the championing of senators like Florida's Marco Rubio, Kentucky's Rand Paul, and Utah's Mike Lee. Among DeMint's failures were the two Senate candidates -- Richard Mourdock in Indiana and Todd Akin in Missouri -- who lost their 2012 bids in the wake of controversial remarks about rape.

    "I think if you're interested in having Republicans control the Senate you have to back Republicans who fit their state and who can win in a general election not just in the primary," Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a moderate Republican, told NBC News about whether there were any lessons from DeMint's tenure on Capitol Hill.

    J. Scott Applewhite / AP

    Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C.

    DeMint had said he would leave the Senate in 2016, following the completion of his second term, meaning his departure in January will be ahead of schedule.

    South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, another conservative Republican who enjoys grassroots support, will be allowed to name a replacement, who would have to face a special election in 2014 to serve out the remaining two years of DeMint's term. A variety of Republicans could jockey to replace DeMint, from Haley herself to a couple of her allies -- Tedd Pitts, her deputy chief of staff, or State Rep. Nathan Ballentine -- to U.S. Rep. Tim Scott or other members of the state's GOP establishment.

    "Looking forward, Governor Haley will now appoint a new Senator, and I know she will make the right choice both for South Carolina and the nation," Scott Said in a statement.

    South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a relatively more moderate Republican who's expected to face a primary challenge, is also up for re-election that fall. 

    There is also the broader question of who, among the 45 Senate Republicans, will seize the mantle of conservative leadership in the upper chamber. Several of the senators whom DeMint helped elect have modeled their actions after the Palmetto State senator, creating their own political action committees and breaking on occasion with the GOP leadership.

    NBC's Tom Curry contributed.

  • First Thoughts: A deal is in sight -- the question is how big

    A deal is in sight; the only question is how big… NYT: Boehner is safer with his rank-and-file than ever before… Republicans are willing to concede -- but want something in return… Obama to take his fiscal-cliff campaign to home of Northern Virginia family to demonstrate the impact of middle-class taxes going up… Meet Ted Yoho… And Perriello decides not to run for VA GOV.

    President Barack Obama headed to Virginia where he reminded the public that if the fiscal cliff isn't averted, taxes will increase on 98 percent of Americans next year. The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd reports.

    *** A deal is in sight -- the question is how big: We said this yesterday, and we’ll say it again: Everything out there suggests that Washington isn’t going off the cliff. The Washington Post reports that Republican centrists and even some conservatives are calling on House Speaker Boehner “to concede on rates now, while he still has some leverage to demand something in return.” And the New York Times observes that Boehner has more support from his rank-and-file than ever before, which gives him more flexibility to cut a deal. So perhaps some of our media brethren should stop with the sky-is-falling headlines. But here’s the big question: Can Washington get a large deal? One option to avoid the fiscal cliff is to simply extend the Bush-era tax cuts for income below $250,000 and punt the rest of the fight until next year, which would produce another political stalemate and a potential battle over raising the debt ceiling. The other option is to construct a big deal to take care of everything now (or at least create the framework for getting it done). The first option is the easy way out, but it only postpones the fight. The second option is harder, but it’s also the opportunity for a legacy. Which option will President Obama and congressional Republicans ultimately pursue? That’s what the next two weeks are about. One thing the next two weeks are NOT about is going over the cliff. If no big deal is achieved, then there will be a middle-class tax rate extension bill passed that allows rates on the top 2% to go up either to 37% or to 39%.

    J. Scott Applewhite / AP

    House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, gestures as he speak to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2012, following a closed-door GOP strategy session.

    *** Boehner’s safer than ever before: As mentioned above, the New York Times notes a pretty significant development in the budget debate: House Speaker John Boehner has more support from his rank-and-file than he’s ever had. “Should his support hold up, Mr. Boehner, who faced a frequent battering from his own members over the last two years as he tried to seal deals on various spending agreements, would be better able to negotiate from a point of relative Republican unity.” More: “On Wednesday, in a private meeting between Mr. Boehner and House Republicans, member after member spoke in support of him, in some cases saying a deal they would have rejected six months ago would most likely be taken today. ‘I want to be a strong advocate and say that I am with the speaker,’ said Representative Scott Rigell of Virginia, a House freshman. ‘I am with the leadership.’” One of the reasons why Boehner appears safer than ever before is that his whole leadership team (Eric Cantor/Kevin McCarthy/Paul Ryan) seems to be all on board. That’s a difference from 2011. But while it’s true Boehner’s safer than ever in leadership, he does have more PUBLIC conservative critics in the rank-n-file which is anything but helpful for him.

    *** Willing to concede -- but in order to get something in return: Relatedly, the Washington Post reports that Republican centrists and even some conservatives are calling on Boehner “to concede on rates now, while he still has some leverage to demand something in return. Republicans are eager to win changes to fast-growing safety-net programs, such as raising the eligibility age for Medicare and applying a less-generous measure of inflation to Social Security benefits.” More: “‘I and some others are advocating giving the president what he wants,’ said Rep. Steven C. LaTourette (R-Ohio). But he stressed that this must be part of a package that slows federal borrowing and reduces the debt by $4 trillion to $5 trillion. ‘Quite frankly, some people in this 2 percent who call me, they’re more worried about the fiscal cliff than about the rates going up a couple points. That has bigger risk for them,’ said LaTourette, a close Boehner ally who is retiring in January.”

    *** Today’s fiscal-cliff moving parts: Your fiscal-cliff photo-op of the day: President Obama is taking his campaign to the home of a family in Northern Virginia (Falls Church) to highlight the issue of the middle class tax rates. It’s one of the White House’s “#my2K” families… A new Quinnipiac poll has Obama’s approval rating among registered at 53% (his highest mark in the poll in three years), and it shows that 53% of voters trust Obama and the Democrats more in the fiscal-cliff debate, versus 36% who trust Republicans more… And at 9:30 am ET Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill will hold a hearing on the fiscal cliff and the effects it could have on the economy.

    *** Meet Ted Yoho: NBC’s Carrie Dann has profiled 10 fresh faces to watch in the new Congress, and we’ll be previewing one of these each day. Today’s profile: Ted Yoho. Dann writes, “The country met Ted Yoho this year through his hogs. A large animal veterinarian in north central Florida, the conservative won national attention for a quirky ad that featured piggy-looking ‘career politicians’ in business suits feeding at a trough alongside real porkers. Yoho, a proponent of the consumption-based Fair Tax, has said that he won't be put into political ‘handcuffs’ by signing anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist's pledge. ‘If you sign a pledge like [Norquist's], you've got handcuffs on,’ he told NPR. The upset winner of a primary against 12-term incumbent Rep. Cliff Stearns, Yoho imitated NFL player Tim Tebow's prayerful victory kneel for supporters after his win. He has promised constituents that he will serve no longer than eight years in Congress.”

    *** Perriello decides not to run: Former Virginia Congressman Tom Perriello (D) yesterday said that he would NOT run for Virginia governor, which pretty much locks in a general election contest between Ken Cuccinelli (R) and Terry McAuliffe. (But as the AP reminds us, Cuccinelli will have one person still challenging for the GOP nomination -- Tareq Salahi, who was best known for crashing a 2009 state dinner at the White House.)

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  • Programming notes

    *** Thursday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up: NBC’s Atia Abawi on her exclusive interview with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai… The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg on the latest developments in the Middle East… Patchwork Nation’s Dante Chinni on how key counties connect the 2012 results to 2004… The Hotline’s Reid Wilson, AP’s Liz Sidoti and former RNC Chair Michael Steele on the cliff talks.

    *** Thursday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews USA Today’s Susan Page, the Washington Post’s Dana Milbank and Rep. Tom Price.  Also, Rep. Nita Lowey on her new Appropriations role.  Tony Fratto faces off with Kiki McLean.  And Robin Wright on Egypt and Syria.

    *** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviews Rep. Diane Black (R-TN), MSNBC Host Ed Schultz, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed & Creator C.L. Bryant.  Today’s Power Panel includes: The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty, Democratic Strategist Karen Finney and Republican Strategist Robert Traynham.

    *** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Georgetown University Professor Michael Eric Dyson, TIME Asst. Managing Editor Rana Foroohar, msnbc.com Executive Editor Richard Wolffe, Author Jay McInerney, and Jonathan Westin, Director of the Fast Food Forward Program.

    *** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Congressman John Larson, Sen. John Barrasso, Politico's Lois Romano, Former Ambassador Nick Burns, and the Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart.

    *** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), yhe Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson, Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis, MSNBC contributor Michael Smerconish, and CNET’s Dan Ackerman.

  • Obama agenda: Not playing games

    Obama on the debt ceiling being used in the fiscal cliff negotiations: "I will not play that game. Because we've got to break that habit before it starts."

    President Obama and Speaker Boehner spoke yesterday afternoon. “A Boehner spokesman would not give any further information on the call,” The Hill writes.

    CNBC: “Treasury Secretary Timothy Geither told CNBC Wednesday that Republicans are ‘making a little bit of progress’ in ‘fiscal cliff’ talks but said the Obama administration was ‘absolutely’ ready to go over the cliff if the GOP doesn't agree to raise tax rates on the wealthy. ‘I think they're making a little bit of progress,’ Geithner said. ‘They're clearly moving and figuring out how to try to move further.’”

    Asked if Republicans didn’t agree to raise rates, would the administration be willing to go over the fiscal cliff, Geithner said, “Oh, absolutely. There’s not prospect to an agreement that doesn’t involve those rates going up on the top 2 percent of the wealthiest Americans.”

    President Obama gets a 53% approval rating in the latest Quinnipiac poll, his best score in three years.

    Voters don’t trust that Republicans will negotiate good faith: By 56-38%, voters say “Obama and congressional Democrats will make a good faith effort to cooperate with congressional Republicans on important issues. By 51 - 43 percent, voters say congressional Republicans will not act in good faith.”

    Crossroads GPS is up with a week-long, national cable ad buy hitting Obama on the fiscal cliff.

    “A business group considered friendly to President Obama has been granted high-level access to senior White House officials as “fiscal cliff” negotiations have gripped Washington,” The Hill reports. “Business Forward on Thursday will host the last in a series of seven briefings where high-level Obama administration officials have discussed the budgets cuts and tax increases of the fiscal cliff with business executives.”

    “Whomever President Barack Obama taps to replace Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is likely to face tough questioning from senators in both parties on the $16 trillion debt, Chinese currency issues and bank regulations, to name just a few topics,” Roll Call writes. “But the good news for Obama is that the man rumored to be his top pick — current White House Chief of Staff Jacob J. Lew — is likely to be easily confirmed, regardless.”

    NBC’s Atia Abawi: “Afghan President Hamid Karzai sharply criticized the United States in an exclusive interview with NBC News on Thursday, blaming American and NATO forces for some of the growing insecurity in his country. ‘Part of the insecurity is coming to us from the structures that NATO and America created in Afghanistan,’ Karzai said during a one-on-one interview at the presidential palace. However, he also acknowledged that much of the country's violence was caused by insurgent groups.”

    MSNBC’s Michael LaRosa: “Last summer President Obama made history by announcing his support for gay marriage. Now the LGBT is looking for the next step: appointing an openly gay person to a cabinet post. There are two LGBT candidates that the gay community touts for high level office”: John Berry (currently the Director of the Office of Personnel Management) and Fred Hochberg (chairman of the Export-Import Bank).

    “The top U.S. and Russian diplomats will hold a surprise meeting Thursday with the United Nations' peace envoy for Syria, signaling fresh hopes of an international breakthrough to end the Arab country's 21-month civil war,” USA Today writes.

  • Congress: The debt-ceiling leverage

    “Much of the rhetoric to date over the fiscal cliff has been on taxes, but lawmakers on Wednesday finally began to zero in on what might be the most difficult piece of the budget puzzle: raising the debt ceiling,” Roll Call says. Republicans don’t want to raise it, and see it as their best leverage. “With the uptick in GOP messaging, Democrats are more concerned than ever about repeating their mistakes from the last lame duck in 2010, when they underestimated the GOP resolve to demand spending cuts equal to the amount of the debt limit hike. It seems unlikely Democrats would be willing to trade on tax rates to secure an extension of the debt ceiling. But in one scenario Republicans have floated, they could gain leverage over Democrats if the GOP were to suddenly relent in the fight over the top tax rates and pass a bill to extending middle-class tax rates.”

    “President Obama and congressional Republicans on Wednesday ratcheted up their threats on an increase in the debt ceiling, complicating fiscal-cliff negotiations that had already stalled over taxes,” The Hill writes.

    Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer thinks Republicans would be unwise in going all-in on another debt-ceiling fight. "I think they learned their lesson with the debt ceiling, I don’t think it’s leverage for them at all,” he said, per The Hill. “The whole thing turned around when it looked like they’d be willing to let the United States forgo its payment of debt in 2011. The whole thing turned around and we began to get the upper hand. I think they’ve learned that mistake and any talk that that is leverage for them is false.”

    Majority Leader Harry Reid blocked an attempt by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to force a vote on President Obama’s deficit-reduction plan, which was introduced as an amendment to a Russian trade bill.

    Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC) became the latest Republican to signal that he could support raising rates: “I, at this point, am not going to sign the discharge petition,” The Hill reports. “I said 'at this point.' I don't know what next week will bring. What would change my mind,” he added, “would be to see if there is any forward movement in the discussions regarding the White House and the House leadership. I would seriously consider what options do I have at that point.”

    “Senate Democrats on Wednesday blocked Republicans from bringing up an immigration bill offering permanent residence visas for foreigners with advanced degrees that passed the House last week despite the opposition of most Democrats,” the AP writes, adding, “Schumer said Democrats support creating so-called STEM visas and he has a proposal to do that. ‘But what we don’t do is take away other visas or add in other extraneous positions.’”

    More: “The STEM bill is seen as an opening skirmish as Congress and the White House plan for writing comprehensive immigration legislation next year dealing with both legal immigrants and the estimated 11 million living in the country illegally.”

    “Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is working to build a firewall in the House against new campaign finance reforms in the face of possible defections within his own caucus,” The Hill reports. “McConnell met with the House Republican Study Committee last week to warn conservatives in the lower chamber not to sign on to any bipartisan initiative requiring super-PACs to disclose their donors.”

    Joe Lieberman says he was too mean to Obama.

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