CEDAR FALLS, Iowa -- Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan is feeling optimistic about a win in the Hawkeye State on Tuesday.

“So I just got a question: Iowa, you gonna help us win this thing?” Ryan asked the crowd at the University of Northern Iowa. “Darn straight. Absolutely. It feels good. We can do it. Right here in the heartland. Right here in the Midwest."

Ryan, a seven-term Wisconsin congressman, told the nearly 1,000-person crowd it could come down to two states.

“Our two states right here – Wisconsin and Iowa – we can tip it over. We can make the difference right here in Iowa,” he said. “Look, in 2008 President Obama won our states. A lot of our fellow Iowans and Wisconsinites looked at the message. They looked at hope and change and it sounded great and so a lot of people voted for that. The president made a lot of grand promises. He said he would heal the partisan wounds and bring people together. This is the most partisan time I have seen in Washington.”

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who made his closing argument speech Friday in Wisconsin, has been speaking a great deal about the need for bipartisanship. Ryan picked up on this theme in Iowa, as well.

“President Obama has not met with the party leaders of the Republican party in the House or the Senate since July. That doesn’t get things done. That’s partisanship. That’s acrimony. Mitt Romney and I have proven that we know how to work with people on the other side of the aisle. We have proven that we know how to get things done,” he said.

With four days to go before Election Day, Ryan and Romney are barnstorming the country – especially the battleground states – to try and defeat the incumbent president.

“A handful of states will determine this. A handful of states. And Iowa, you know this, you’re used to it with the caucuses. You’ve had everybody running for president in your kitchen,” Ryan said as Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, Gov. Terry Branstad, and Lt Gov. Kim Reynolds sat nearby.

According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released Wednesday, Obama is ahead of Romney by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, which is down from his eight-point lead earlier this month.

Both Romney and Ryan will hold another event in Iowa -- which will award six electoral votes -- before Nov. 6, and President Obama will travel to Iowa for his final rally Monday night before polls open.

PATASKALA, OH -- Mitt Romney took his campaign's "closing argument" for a test drive in a Columbus, Ohio suburb on Friday, pledging bipartisan work toward "real change," and accusing President Barack Obama of failing to keep his promises.

"So this is a president who has promised a lot of things, but his record is very different than the promises," Romney said, abandoning the teleprompter he used during the speech -- but echoing the prepared remarks -- he delivered this morning in Wisconsin.

"Instead of building the bridges that we needed in America, he built a broader and broader divide. And I have a very different approach. I recognize that this president is again making new promises, and these are promises he can't keep, just like the last ones, because he says he's going to keep us on the same path we're on," Romney continued.

The closing argument, heavy on criticism of Obama's record and still wrapped largely around Romney's five-point plan for fixing the economy, also attempts to drive home the image of Romney as the "change" candidate this cycle.

“Accomplishing change is not just something I talk about, it is something I have actually done," Romney told a few thousand supporters gathered on a factory floor here, going on to cite his experiencing launching a business and turning around another as examples.

The Obama campaign brushed off Romney's claims of bringing about real change as simply "not true," arguing in a statement from spokesperson Lis Smith that Romney's version of change was to "bring back the failed policies of the past that crashed the economy and punished the middle class in the first place.

Romney will make one final campaign stop today at a rally outside Cincinnati, where he is expected to draw upwards of 10,000 supporters to an event where he'll be joined by 100 Republican leaders, who will then fan out across the state and the country on behalf of the Republican ticket.

Romney noted the importance of the Buckeye state, telling his audience they were "probably going to decide the next President of the United States." He made no mention, though, of the auto industry bailout nor his campaign's recent controversial ads about Jeep. Obama, also campaigning Friday in Ohio, used those points to pummel Romney on the stump.

MONTROSE, Colo. -- Just hours after the latest unemployment report was released Friday, Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan attacked President Barack Obama for not living up to his promise of getting more Americans back to work.

Related: Jobs data unlikely to sway undecided voters

"We just got the latest jobs report that voters are going to see before heading to the polls on Election Day. And what we saw today is that the unemployment rate is higher than the day that President Obama came into office," Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, said. "We are 9 million jobs short than what he said he would accomplish. Look, in the president's campaign for another term, he has offered nothing different and if he is reelected, nothing different is exactly what we would get."

Recommended: Obama, Romney bring their closing arguments to the Midwest 

The U.S. economy added 171,000 jobs in October, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9 percent, still below the important psychological threshold of 8 percent.

In the shadows of the San Juan Mountains, Ryan told voters in the key battleground of Colorado to hold on for just another few days.

"Here’s what it comes down to: we can't afford to wait four more years for real change to get us on the right track. We only need to wait four more days. Four more days and we can do this. Four more days. Four more days and we can get this on the right track," he said at the Black Canyon Jet Center to a cheering crowd.

Recommended: Democrats face very steep climb to 25 House seats they need

The Friday morning rally marked Ryan’s 11th in the Centennial State where Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and Obama are in a dead heat to capture the state’s nine electoral votes. According to a CNN/ORC International poll released yesterday, Obama barely edges out Romney, 50 to 48 percent, among the state's likely voters. The two-point lead for Obama is within the polls margin of error.

Romney will hold two events in Colorado Saturday while Ryan returns on Sunday for an event in Castle Rock before Tuesday’s election.

WEST ALLIS, WI-- Mitt Romney returned to Wisconsin today for the first time since August, delivering his closing argument speech in a state where Republicans hope they can manage a chink in the President Barack Obama's Midwestern armor.

Romney received a raucous welcome from an overflow crowd of 4,000 Wisconsinites chanting "four more days" this morning, welcoming the Republican presidential nominee with some of the loudest support Romney has won since returning to a full campaign schedule in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.

"What a great state. What a great welcome, and by the way this state is going to help me become the next president of the United States," Romney said, taking the stage following an introduction from the state's once-embattled Republican Gov. Scott Walker.

"I want to thank you for all that you've done and all you're going to do in the next four days and I want to tell you how much I appreciate being in the home of the next vice president of the United States," Romney said moments later, referring to his running mate Paul Ryan, who was born and raised in nearby Janesville, Wisc.

Recommended: Democrats face very steep climb to 25 House seats they need

For the Romney campaign, the presence of a native son of the Badger state on the ticket, along with Walker's strong performance in this summer's failed recall effort, highlight an opportunity to solve a vexing problem -- how to break through Obama's Midwestern firewall.

"They woke a sleeping giant here I would say during the recall," Milwaukee business owner Frank Orlando told NBC News, adding that he was volunteering for a political campaign -- Romney's -- for the first time in his life. He added that half the volunteers he works with are also engaging in politics directly for the first time that cycle.

"We love Paul Ryan," said Grace Lococo, another event attendee from Milwaukee. "We grew up following him."

Romney aides say they see that type of familiarity and enthusiasm as emblematic of a blue state ripe for flipping.

"We see Republican gains in Wisconsin for the past few cycles and we believe its an excellent opportunity for a Romney pickup," Romney spokesperson Rick Gorka said.

Related: Obama slams Romney for Jeep ad in Ohio

Recent polling lends some credence to that theory. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released earlier this week showed Romney cutting Obama's lead in Wisconsin down to three points -- 49 to 46 percent -- half of what it had been a month prior and within the poll's margin of error.

With the president under the 50 percent threshold, Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes could help Romney succeed on Tuesday should he fail to break through in the race's most critical battlefield of Ohio, where he'll campaign the rest of the day Friday, and return later in the weekend.

For the Romney campaign, Wisconsin has already proven decisive once. The state's primary in April, which Romney won handily, was the last truly competitive contest between Romney and Rick Santorum, and helped wrap up the contentious GOP primary race later that month.

Updated 2:35 p.m. ET -- Four days before voters head to the polls, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney sought to bring their different economic visions into sharp relief before throngs of Midwestern voters who could decide the election.

Romney, who delivered on Friday what he said was the “closing argument” of his campaign, said the economy was hopelessly mired in stagnation under Obama, and promised to deliver “real change” if elected.

Jim Young / Reuters

Supporters of Mitt Romney gesture at a campaign rally in West Allis, Wis., Nov. 2, 2012.

Obama pointed to green shoots of economic recovery while barnstorming battleground Ohio, accusing his Republican opponent of deception on the question of change, as well as the 2009 auto industry rescue that could swing the outcome of the election.

Romney started the day with a speech in the battleground state of Wisconsin, assailing Obama for having failed at his promise to change Washington; Romney said his experience in the private sector and as governor of Massachusetts has shown he can boost the economy and bridge partisan divides that have grinded lawmaking in the nation’s capital to a virtual halt.

“The question of this election comes down to this: do you want more of the same or do you want real change?” Romney asked. “President Obama promised change, but he could not deliver it. I promise change, and I have a record of achieving it.”

A robust campaign schedule for Obama and Romney, along with their running mates, brought the campaign back to its central issue -- jobs and the economy -- just as a key monthly employment report showed that the U.S. added more jobs than expected in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that the economy added 171,000 jobs last month -- though the unemployment rate inched upward to 7.9 percent as the size of the American workforce grew.

Check out the NBC News' Election Briefing Book

“This morning we learned that companies hired more workers in October than at any time in the last eight months,” Obama said at a Friday rally in Ohio. “We've made real progress, but we are here today because we know we've got more work to do. As long as there's a single American who wants a job but can't find one ... our fight goes on.”

The stasis in campaigning that set in following the landfall of Hurricane Sandy earlier this week had all but faded Friday, as both campaigns resumed their full-throated critiques of one another.

Romney sought to wrest the mantle of “change” away from Obama, continuing on a theme he has stressed in recent weeks, and going so far as warning on Friday that if the U.S. doesn't change course, it could risk slipping back into recession.

Obama has long blamed Republican obstructionism and special interests for impeding his agenda, and thereby, the pace of economic recovery.

Romney, who made his first stop in Wisconsin since naming Paul Ryan, a congressman from the state, as his running mate, suggested his experience as governor of Massachusetts and a former private equity executive would help him succeed where Obama had failed.

Jobs data unlikely to sway undecided voters

"I have watched over these last few months as our campaign has gathered the strength of a movement," Romney said. "I will reach out to both sides of the aisle. I will bring people together, doing big things for the common good. I won’t just represent one party, I’ll represent one nation. I’ll try to show the best of America, at a time when only our best will do."

Romney traveled next to Ohio, where he would join Obama in courting the vote of the Buckeye State -- a pivotal Midwestern battleground where the outcome could determine the winner of the Electoral College.

There, the president upbraided Romney on the notion that the Republican nominee could deliver change, ridiculing the GOP nominee’s proposals as little more than warmed-over leftovers from the Bush administration.

“We know what the right choice is, but let's face it, Gov. Romney is a talented salesman,” he said, accusing his Republican opponent of repackaging tired GOP ideas. “We know what change looks like, and what the governor's offering ain't it.”

The Obama campaign has relied on Ohio to serve as a kind of “firewall” for the president, concentrating for months on building an advantage over Romney in hopes of impeding the GOP candidate’s path to 270 electoral votes. Obama has led Romney by a slim, but consistent, margin in most public polls, prompting the Republican ticket to ratchet up its attacks on the administration’s handling of the auto industry bailout.

Romney’s offensive includes a series of new ads taking aim at the president on the issue of the auto industry bailout, stoking (incorrect) fears that Jeep would move production and jobs from the U.S. to China.

First Thoughts: A status-quo election?

Those suggestions earned him a strong rebuke from both the president, as well as Vice President Biden, who campaigned in Wisconsin, a state that has reliably supported Democrats in recent presidential cycles.

"Everyone knows it’s not true. The car companies themselves have told Gov. Romney to knock it off," Obama said of the ads, accusing Romney of trying to scare the state’s autoworkers. "You don’t scare hardworking Americans just to scare up some votes. That’s not what being president is all about. That’s not leadership."

Biden, speaking in Beloit, went a step further: “In the last hours of this campaign, Romney and Ryan have become truly desperate. Romney will say anything to win.”

But Republicans returned to the issue of employment, arguing Friday that the employment situation had scarcely improved over the last four years, and hardly matched the White House’s projections upon selling its stimulus package in January of 2009. That, they said, justified Obama’s expulsion from office.

“In the president’s campaign for another term, he has offered nothing different and if he is re-elected, nothing different is exactly what we would get,” Ryan said at a rally in Colorado. “And we are not going to let him get away with that are we?”

HILLIARD, Ohio -- At his first campaign event since the release of the final jobs report before Election Day, President Barack Obama reprised his auto-centric Ohio economic pitch, slamming Mitt Romney for what he said were deceptive ads claiming Jeep was moving its business overseas.

He suggested that such a claim, debunked by both Chrysler executives and multiple fact-checkers, made workers here unnecessarily fearful for their jobs.

“You've got folks who work at the Jeep plant who've been calling their employers, worried. Asking, is it true? Are our jobs being shipped to China? And the reason they're making these calls is because Governor Romney's been running an ad that says so,” Obama said, speaking to 2,800 supporters at the Franklin County Fairgrounds here.

“Everybody knows it’s not true,” he continued. “The car companies themselves had told Gov. Romney to knock it off.”

Recommended: Ryan lambastes jobs report: 'We are 9 million jobs short'

He said Romney was trying to cause such controversy as a last-ditch attempt to gloss over his opposition to the auto bailout, to the detriment of workers here.

“I understand that Gov. Romney's had a tough time here in Ohio because he was against saving the auto industry," Obama said, "and it's hard to run away from that position when you're on videotape saying the words ‘let Detroit go bankrupt.’”

He concluded, “You don't scare hardworking Americans just to scare up some votes."

This sort of populist appeal to auto- and other blue-collar workers has paid dividends for Obama in Rust Belt states like Ohio. He’s faring better among white working-class males in those states than he is with that group in the rest of the country.

Obama spent less time here talking about the latest 7.9 percent unemployment figure, touting the fact that companies hired more workers in October than at any time in the past eight months but quickly moving on.

He continued his tour through smaller Ohio towns, stopping next in Springfield, Ohio.

The NBC News Political Unit has put together a briefing book for Election Day; a guide for users to better understand the upcoming  presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests.

This nearly 150-page guide offers the NBC News battleground map, information on the most important ballot measures to watch, ad spending tallies, voter turnout history, and past election results.

It also includes an hour-by-hour viewer's guide to the top races in each state, and ponders the question, "What if there's a tie?"

Click the image or click here to check it out.

President Obama stands to lose as many as 340,000 votes as a result of Hurricane Sandy, not enough to affect the outcome in heavily Democratic Northeastern states, but something that could make a difference in the popular vote if the results of Tuesday’s presidential race are as close as polls indicate, a First Read analysis finds.

“Sandy has the potential to reduce Obama's national popular vote share by depressing turnout in highly Democratic areas along the Eastern Seaboard,” Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University, who studies turnout, told First Read. “The storm is unlikely to change the Electoral College outcome, as Obama is heavily favored to win the affected states. A turnout drop could be the difference in a close national election, and thus could shape the political discourse over important policy issues in a possible Obama second term.”

Recommended: Romney tries to crack Obama's Midwest firewall in Wisconsin

For example, assuming 2008 vote totals and a 15 percent reduction in turnout in the coastal counties most affected by Hurricane Sandy in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, Obama would lose a net of 340,000 votes, including 247,000 out of New York, 60,000 from New Jersey, 29,000 from Connecticut, and 3,600 from Rhode Island.

Officially, four times in American history has a candidate become president while losing the popular vote --  John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and George W. Bush in 2000. (Some political scientists believe it’s actually five, and that John F. Kennedy lost the popular vote in 1960.) Most recently, the country was divided in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote by 540,000, but lost the Electoral College narrowly because of 537 votes in Florida.

It would be even more accurate to dive into individual precincts, but here’s a rough a county-by-county breakdown:

New York: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -247,000
New York – Obama -86,000, Romney -14,000, Net: Obama -72,000
Queens – Obama -72,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -49,000
Kings – Obama -91,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -68,000
Bronx – Obama -51,000, Romney -6,000, Net: Obama -45,000
Richmond – Obama -12,000, Romney -13,000, Net: Romney -1,000
Nassau – Obama -51,000, Romney -43,000, Net: Obama -8,000
Suffolk – Obama -52,000, Romney -46,000, Net: Obama -6,000 

New Jersey: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -60,000
Bergen – Obama -34,000, Romney -28,000, Net: Obama -6,000
Hudson – Obama -23,000, Romney -8,000, Net: Obama -15,000
Union – Obama -21,000, Romney -12,000, Net: Obama -9,000
Essex – Obama -36,000, Romney -11,000, Net: Obama -25,000
Middlesex – Obama -29,000, Romney -19,000, Net: Obama -10,000
Monmouth –Obama -22,000, Romney -24,000, Net: Romney -2,000
Ocean – Obama -16,500, Romney, -24,000, Net: Romney -7,500
Atlantic – Obama -10,200, Romney -7,500, Net: Obama -2,700
Cape May – Obama -3,500, Romney -4,000, Net: Romney -500 

Connecticut: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -29,000
Fairfield – Obama -36,000, Romney -25,000, Net: Obama -9,000
New Haven – Obama -35,000, Romney -22,000, Net: Obama -13,000
Middlesex – Obama -8,000, Romney -5,000, Net: Obama -3,000
New London – Obama -11,000, Romney -7,000, Net: Obama -4,000 

Rhode Island: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -3,600
Washington – Obama -6,000, Romney -4,000, Net: Obama -2,000
Newport – Obama -4,000, Romney -2,400, Net: Obama -1,600

Is it possible we see a status-quo election?... Final jobs report before election is mostly good news for Obama: Economy added 171,000 jobs in October and unemployment rate ticks up to 7.9%... How to view Romney’s move into Pennsylvania… Don’t compare this election’s data with 2008; compare it with 2004… Trying to predict the turnout, as well as Sandy’s impact… Obama campaigns in Ohio, while Romney will be in Wisconsin and the Buckeye State… Public poll suggests Mourdock is headed for defeat… And “Meet” has David Plouffe and Eric Cantor.

*** A status-quo election? Despite the billions of dollars spent, the endless campaigning, and the breathless reporting, it is POSSIBLE we could end up with a status-quo result on Election Day -- with President Obama winning re-election, Democrats keeping control of the Senate, and Republicans staying in power in the House. Now we’re not saying these things will happen, but with four days to go, you’d probably rather be Obama than Mitt Romney, Senate Democrats instead of Senate Republicans, and House Republicans rather than House Democrats. But if that’s the result on Tuesday, we’d have a status-quo result after three previous change elections (in 2006, 2008, and 2010). And it would be an ironic outcome, given the majorities who believe the country is headed on the wrong track and given Congress’ very low approval rating. Then the challenge would be to govern – with better results than we saw in 2011 and 2012. Of course, it’s possible we see a fourth-straight change election. But it’s also very possible things stay the same.

 
*** Economy adds 171,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate at 7.9%: When it comes to the last jobs report before the election, it’s good news for Team Obama. In October, the U.S. economy added 171,000 jobs and the unemployment ticked up to 7.9% -- but remains below 8%. The AP: "The Labor Department's last look at hiring before Tuesday's election sketched a picture of a job market that is gradually gaining momentum after nearly stalling in the spring. Since July, the economy has created an average of 173,000 jobs a month, up from 67,000 a month from April through June. Still, President Barack Obama will face voters with the highest unemployment rate of any incumbent since Franklin Roosevelt. The rate ticked up because more people without jobs started looking for work. The government only counts people as unemployed if they are actively searching.”

*** How to view Romney’s move into Pennsylvania: There are two ways to interpret Mitt Romney’s decision to campaign in Pennsylvania on Sunday. Either it’s a move to run up the score (trying to get to 300 electoral votes) and project more momentum, or it’s an effort to search for another path to 270 electoral votes. Ask yourself what is the more likely option, and it’s hard to ignore the latter. Consider: Most public polls continue to show Obama leading slightly in Ohio, and Romney hasn’t made a serious campaign effort in Keystone State since the primaries. Indeed, it’s difficult not to compare this move to an on-side kick in football -- when you’re behind by a touchdown with a few ticks on the clock left.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

*** Don’t compare this election’s data with 2008; compare it with 2004: Bracing for a very close election on Tuesday night, we’re sure that everyone is studying past exit polls, county vote totals in the swing states, the early vote, and previous victory margins. But perhaps the best way to compare Tuesday’s contest isn’t with the figures from 2008, when Barack Obama decisively beat John McCain in 2008, 53%-46%. Instead, it’s comparing this election with 2004, when George W. Bush narrowly beat John Kerry, 51%-48%. How Obama is performing vs. Kerry and how Romney is performing vs. Bush might be the best way to understand how Election Night is breaking, especially when it comes to Ohio.

*** Patchwork Nation: One way additional way to compare this election with 2004 and 2008 is through Patchwork Nation, the work by journalist Dante Chinni putting all the nation’s counties -- including those in battleground states -- into 12 different county categories. Some examples: Industrial Metropolis (think Philadelphia), College and Careers (Johnson County, IA), Monied Burbs (Fairfax County, VA), Empty Nests (Lake, FL), Immigration Nation (Maricopa, AZ), Boom Towns (Clark, NV), and Evangelical Epicenters (Christian, MO). What is interesting here: When you take the merged likely-voter respondents from our national NBC/WSJ poll from these different county types, you see that Obama is underperforming from 2008 but overperforming from 2004. For instance, in the Monied Burbs -- which makes up 23% of the country’s population -- Obama is leading Romney by seven points among likely-voter respondents in the NBC/WSJ poll, 51%-44%. That’s lower than Obama’s 12-point lead over McCain in ’08. But it’s greater than Kerry’s two-point edge in ’04, 50%-48%. Bottom line: If Obama is overperforming Kerry from ’04, he’s likely to win. Ditto if Romney is overperforming Bush.

*** Trying to predict the turnout: What will the turnout be on Election Day? The Republican half of our NBC/WSJ polling team has researched the topic, predicting that the number of votes will EXCEED those cast in 2008 -- which was just more than 130 million. But they also believe that the percent of citizens of voting age who will participate will DROP from 2008 (62.9%) and 2004 (63.1%) due in large part to less voter enthusiasm than in those past elections. So how could the number of votes increase but the participation percentage drop? The answer is simple: The U.S. population has grown from 2008 (when there were 210 million Americans of voting age) to 2012 (when there are almost 220 million).

Larry Downing / REUTERS

President Barack Obama addresses the crowd at a campaign event at the University of Colorado Boulder, Nov. 1, 2012.

*** And Sandy’s impact on turnout: Here’s another question: What will Sandy’s impact on turnout be? The AP has this quote from turnout expert Michael McDonald: “It’s unlikely disruptions from Sandy would affect the outcome of the election within those states. But if those voters, who are mostly Democrats, end up being subtracted from the national popular vote, you'll get a lower vote share for Obama than he would have received if those people had voted.” And crunching the numbers – if you assume 2008 totals and a 15% reduction in turnout in the coastal counties in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, Obama might end up losing a net 340,000 votes.  Our math:

New York: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -247,000
New York – Obama -86,000, Romney -14,000, Net: Obama -72,000
Queens – Obama -72,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -49,000
Kings – Obama -91,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -68,000
Bronx – Obama -51,000, Romney -6,000, Net: Obama -45,000
Richmond – Obama -12,000, Romney -13,000, Net: Romney -1,000
Nassau – Obama -51,000, Romney -43,000, Net: Obama -8,000
Suffolk – Obama -52,000, Romney -46,000, Net: Obama -6,000

New Jersey: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -60,000
Bergen – Obama -34,000, Romney -28,000, Net: Obama -6,000
Hudson – Obama -23,000, Romney -8,000, Net: Obama -15,000
Union – Obama -21,000, Romney -12,000, Net: Obama -9,000
Essex – Obama -36,000, Romney -11,000, Net: Obama -25,000
Middlesex – Obama -29,000, Romney -19,000, Net: Obama -10,000
Monmouth –Obama -22,000, Romney -24,000, Net: Romney -2,000
Ocean – Obama -16,500, Romney, -24,000, Net: Romney -7,500
Atlantic – Obama -10,200, Romney -7,500, Net: Obama -2,700
Cape May – Obama -3,500, Romney -4,000, Net: Romney -500

Connecticut: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -29,000
Fairfield – Obama -36,000, Romney -25,000, Net: Obama -9,000
New Haven – Obama -35,000, Romney -22,000, Net: Obama -13,000
Middlesex – Obama -8,000, Romney -5,000, Net: Obama -3,000
New London – Obama -11,000, Romney -7,000, Net: Obama -4,000

Rhode Island: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -3,600
Washington – Obama -6,000, Romney -4,000, Net: Obama -2,000
Newport – Obama -4,000, Romney -2,400, Net: Obama -1,600

*** On the trail: Obama spends his day in Ohio, hitting Hilliard at 10:20 am ET, Springfield at 12:55 pm ET, and Lima at 3:20 pm ET… Romney campaigns in West Allis, WI at 10:55 am ET and in West Chester, OH (with Ann Romney and Paul Ryan) at 7:30 pm ET… Biden stumps in Wisconsin, while Ryan is in Iowa… Bill Clinton visits Florida, and Michelle Obama hits Virginia.

*** Is Richard Mourdock headed for defeat? According to a new poll, it appears that way in Indiana’s Senate contest. “Democratic Senate nominee U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly has built a significant lead in the race for Senate, according to a new Howey/DePauw University Battleground Poll. The poll, released this morning, shows Donnelly leading Republican State Treasurer Richard Mourdock 47 percent to 36 percent, with Libertarian Andrew Horning getting 6 percent.” Now Republicans have released their own poll showing Mourdock at 46% and Donnelly at 44%

*** On “Meet”: This Sunday, NBC’s David Gregory interviews White House senior adviser David Plouffe and House Majority Leader Cantor.

Countdown to Election Day: 4 days

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*** Friday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up: President Obama’s CEA Chairman Alan Krueger and Moody’s Mark Zandi on the job numbers… NRCC Chairman Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) on the GOP’s outlook for the House and what next year’s Congress could get done depending on who wins the White House… NBC’s Luke Russert with a deep dive into the tough reelection fight for Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) and more campaign trail news with the Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus, msnbc’s Melissa Harris-Perry and Republican strategist Phil Musser.

*** Friday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing, anchoring from Grove City, OH interviews Erin McPike and Jonathan Alter, awaiting the president’s speech during the hour.  Also, Jen Psaki will join us.  Greg Ip and Jim Tankersly remark on the job numbers.  And the Columbus Dispatch’s John Vardon is with us.

*** Friday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC ‘s Thomas Roberts interviews The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank, former Biden economic adviser Jared Bernstein, CNBC Contributor Ron Insana and Republican Strategist Susan Del Percio.

*** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, Romney campaign Economic Policy Advisor Vin Weber, Fmr. PA Gov. Ed Rendell, Charlie Cook, The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, NBC’s Richard Engel and Katy Tur.

*** Friday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews the Washington Post’s Anne Kornblut, David Goodfriend, Zachary Karabell and NBCnews.com’s national affairs writer Tom Curry on Sandy’s effect on voting

Latest polls: States: CO: CNN/ORC: Obama 50-48%, NC: High Point University: Romney 46-45%. WI: St. Norbert College: Obama 51-42%.

“Election officials were ordering generators, moving voting locations and figuring out how to transport poll workers displaced from coastal areas as Tuesday’s presidential election became the latest challenge for states whacked by Superstorm Sandy,” the AP writes. “The storm, which devastated East Coast communities with power outages, flooding and snow, had already disrupted early voting in parts of Maryland, West Virginia, New Jersey and North Carolina. With less than a week to go before the general election, officials in the hardest-hit states were scrambling to ensure orderly and fair balloting in places still dark or under water.”

And: Michael McDonald, a professor of public affairs at George Mason University in Virginia who studies turnout, said a calamitous weather event right before a presidential election was unprecedented. McDonald said that in such a tight presidential race any turnout diminished by Sandy could make a difference in the overall popular vote. ‘It’s unlikely disruptions from Sandy would affect the outcome of the election within those states,’ McDonald said. ‘But if those voters, who are mostly Democrats, end up being subtracted from the national popular vote, you'll get a lower vote share for Obama than he would have received if those people had voted.’”

A First Read analysis finds that in the coastal counties most affected by the storm in the four states affected by Sandy and assuming 2008 totals and a 15 percent reduction in turnout, President Obama would stand to lose a net of about 340,000 votes. He could lose 247,000 out of New York, 60,000 out of New Jersey, 29,000 out of Connecticut, and 3,600 out of Rhode Island.

If Obama wins, one reason, Charlie Cook says, is his early negative ads that helped define Romney: “If Obama ekes out an electoral-vote win, look back to last spring and summer, to the Romney campaign’s decision not to define him in a personal and positive way and the Obama campaign’s decision to roll the dice by spending an enormous amount of money to discredit Romney in the swing states, as the factors that led to the outcome.”

Susan Page notes the candidates have just four days left to seal the deal.

National Jorunal’s Reinhard: “Regardless of the outcome, the Hispanic vote will be one of the most important markers of the parties’ futures, pointing the way to newly competitive battlegrounds in traditionally Republican states across the country. Add conservative movement icon Grover Norquist, the antitax crusader, to the growing list of prominent Republicans who are sounding the alarm.”

One analysis has ad spending topping $1 billion already. NBC’s ad tracking has it at $980 million, on pace to top $1 billion.

AP outlines five things to watch in the home stretch: (1) Jobs report, (2) Election Day rain, (3) the fight over “change,” (4) Ohio, and (5) If Bloomberg endorsement matters.

“President Obama held nothing back in his return to the campaign trail on Thursday, ticking off Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s policy proposals -- repealing health care reform, lowering tax rates, easing financial regulations -- and blasting each one at a rally in Green Bay, Wisc.,” the Boston Globe writes.

Said Obama: “Governor Romney has been using all his talents as a salesman to dress up these very same policies that failed our country so badly, the very same policies we’ve been cleaning up after for the past four years. And he’s been offering them up as change. Well let me tell you, Wisconsin, we know what change looks like, and what the governor’s offering sure ain’t change.”

AP on Obama’s closing argument: “President Barack Obama has spent months urging Americans to move forward. Now he’s asking them to look back. Back to the last Democratic president, who presided over a booming economy. Back to his Republican predecessor, whose policies he says GOP rival Mitt Romney would repeat. And back to 2008, when Obama ran as a champion of change who was willing to work across the political aisle. That’s how the president wants a divided, economically anxious nation to see him again now, as he makes his closing argument in the final days of his final political campaign.”

Ron Brownstein: “In the campaign’s final days, President Obama’s hopes of reelection may turn on his ability to assemble very different coalitions of support in the Sunbelt and the Rustbelt, a wave of new battleground state polling this week suggests. In diverse Sunbelt states like Virginia, Florida and Colorado, Obama is drawing enough backing from minorities and upscale white women to remain step-for-step with Mitt Romney, despite big deficits for the president among working-class whites and a substantial shortfall among college-educated white men in most of those states, according to detailed analyses of recent surveys provided to National Journal.”

NY Mayor Bloomberg endorsed Obama.

But not everyone’s pleased with Bloomberg and his handling of Sandy (not to mention penning 985 words on national politics while his city is still devastated). He’s being criticized also for continuing to put on the New York City Marathon this weekend.

Bloomberg’s PAC spent $5 million on House races this week.

National Journal looks at the importance of Jacob Lew to Obama and his legacy.

“Mitt Romney went back on the attack on Thursday in Virginia, criticizing President Obama for suggesting the creation of a new Cabinet position, a secretary of business,” the Boston Globe writes.

Said Romney: “I don’t think adding a new chair in his Cabinet will help add millions of jobs on Main Street. We don’t need the secretary of business to understand business,” he added. “We need a president who understands business, and I do. And that’s why I’ll help be able to get this economy going again.”

Watch Florida… The L.A. Times’ Lauter notes that Romney’s on a “razor’s edge” in Florida: “Even as the lion's share of attention in the presidential campaign goes to the battleground of Ohio and the storm-battered states of the Mid-Atlantic, the outcome to the south, in the nation's largest swing state, now seems very much in doubt.”

Jeep backfire… “In battleground Ohio the focus of the presidential race has returned to one of President Obama's favorite topics -- the auto industry -- courtesy of Mitt Romney, who brought the issue back to center stage,” USA Today writes.

It notes that automakers and newspapers objected. For example, “Romney's implication that jobs were being shifted overseas earned him a stinging editorial from The (Cleveland) Plain Dealer, which called the spot ‘a masterpiece of misdirection’ from a candidate ‘desperate to convince Ohio voters that he's the candidate most committed to the U.S. auto industry – no matter how much confusion he must sow to do it.' The (Toledo) Blade called it ‘an exercise in deception … remarkable even by the standards of his campaign.' An ad watch in The Columbus Dispatch -- the editorial page of which endorsed Romney, unlike the other papers – pointed out the ad's inaccuracy: ‘what is being considered is adding production in China -- not shutting down American Jeep factories such as the one in Toledo.’”

And: Reuters: “A Chrysler executive told Donald Trump in a Tweet on Thursday that the real estate executive and television personality was "full of sh--" for repeating a notion that Chrysler is shipping U.S. Jeep production to China, which the automaker refutes.”

More: Trump, from his Twitter account, said, "Obama is a terrible negotiator. He bails out Chrysler and now Chrysler wants to send all Jeep manufacturing to China--and will!" To which Gilles, from his Twitter account, responded to Trump: ‘You are full of sh--!’ In a second Tweet, Giles added: ‘I apologize for my language, but lies are just that, lies.’”

INDIANA: Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground poll: Joe Donnelly (D) 47%, Richard Mourdock (R) 36%.

UTAH: Salt Lake Tribune poll Mia Love (R) 52%, Jim Matheson (D) 40%. (H/T: Taegan Goddard.)

DOSWELL, VA -- Once again throttling back on his most vociferous attacks on President Barack Obama, Mitt Romney continued his effort to paint the president as a partisan without a plan, and pledged to work across the aisle with Democrats if elected president in his second event of a three-stop Virginia campaign day.

Charles Dharapak / AP

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters at a campaign stop at Meadow Event Park, in Richmond, Va., Thursday, Nov. 1, 2012.

"I'm going to meet regularly with Democrat leaders and Republican leaders. I won't do that once a year, when I say regularly I mean much more frequently than that, because we're going to have to work together," Romney pledged. "These are critical times. This is an election of consequence." 

Democrats immediately seized on the irony of Romney delivering these remarks while standing next to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., whom Democrats have long accused of using his power in the House to act as one of the "chief architects" of GOP obstruction to President Obama's agenda.

“For the sole purpose of political gain, congressman Cantor and Republicans in Congress, like Romney’s running mate congressman Ryan, have blocked efforts to achieve a balanced deficit reduction deal and to pass legislation to create jobs now," read a statement from Obama campaign spokeswoman Lis Smith. "The American people need someone who will move us forward, not just serve as a rubber stamp for the right wing.”

Romney, who has dialed down his criticisms of President Obama in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, and as the campaigns move into the closing argument phase, continued to ding the president for what he said was a lack of an agenda and a campaign based upon attacks alone.

"For a while there he was talking about saving characters on Sesame Street, and then it was word games with my name that he was playing, and then of course he got very anxious and went out there and just attacked me day in and day out," Romney said. "Attacking me does not create an agenda for him."

Romney makes one more appearance in Virginia today: a rally in Virginia Beach that was originally planned for Sunday night, but had to be rescheduled due to the approach of Hurricane Sandy.

JACKSONVILLE, FL -- First lady Michelle Obama told a crowd of supporters today that she is "heartbroken" by the toll of Hurricane Sandy.

"We are heartbroken about the lives that have been lost and all the damage that has been done in so many of our communities," Obama said, adding that her husband, President Barack Obama, is working "around the clock" with governors and mayors and first responders. 

"I know that one of things that we do in times of crisis is come together," Obama said.

It was a message of unity that may have been tinged with politics, too, evoking images of Obama and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie touring the devastated New Jersey coastline yesterday.

Christie, Republican, has been one of the president's fiercest critics but this week has praised his leadership.

The first lady's event here in Jacksonville drew 4,700 people, the campaign said.

The crowd was treated to a brief show from Stevie Wonder beforehand, who told the audience that the president is "for all people."

"You know what amazes me is when I hear all these various people talking crazy," Wonder said of the president's opponents. "I say, 'They must be blinder than me.'"

The first lady delivered her usual early vote message, declaring that voting early and volunteering is part of the campaign's "five-day plan" in the run up to Nov. 6.

Earlier, a campaign field organizer announced that vans were waiting to bring members of the crowd to a polling station inside a city library.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed President Barack Obama on Thursday, invoking Hurricane Sandy and the president's work to address climate change.

As New York reels from the fallout of this week's hurricane, which caused 37 deaths in the city, Bloomberg said Obama was better-suited than Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to curb carbon emissions.

"The devastation that Hurricane Sandy brought to New York City and much of the Northeast – in lost lives, lost homes and lost business – brought the stakes of Tuesday’s presidential election into sharp relief," Bloomberg wrote. "Our climate is changing. And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be – given this week's devastation – should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action."

The three-term mayor and billionaire further lauded Obama for taking "major steps to reduce our carbon consumption." In turn, Bloomberg said that on the issue of climate change, Romney had "reversed course, abandoning the very cap-and-trade program he once supported."

A former Republican who has since declared himself independent, Bloomberg did not make an endorsement for president in 2008. He cited other issues, including Obama's health care reform law, approach to abortion rights and support for same-sex marriage, in reaching his conclusion.

Eduardo Munoz / Reuters

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg speaks to the media during a news conference about Updates to New Yorkers on Preparations for Hurricane Sandy in New York, October 26, 2012.

"I'm honored to have Mayor Bloomberg's endorsement. I deeply respect him for his leadership in business, philanthropy and government, and appreciate the extraordinary job he's doing right now, leading New York City through these difficult days," Obama said in a statement.

The endorsement comes, though, amid one of the worst storms to batter the New York area in recent history, Obama's response to which has drawn him plaudits from a bipartisan array of figures, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R).

Obama also added: "While we may not agree on every issue, Mayor Bloomberg and I agree on the most important issues of our time - that the key to a strong economy is investing in the skills and education of our people, that immigration reform is essential to an open and dynamic democracy, and that climate change is a threat to our children's future, and we owe it to them to do something about it."

*** UPDATE *** An Obama campaign official told NBC's Kristen Welker it's impossible to know the impact of the endorsement but called it a "net positive" citing the fact that Bloomberg has an audience of independent-minded voters. Campaign officials say they were made aware the of the endorsement before Bloomberg announced it.  

One Republican operative suggested the endorsement could actually hurt the president calling Bloomberg "the most anti-gun politician" in the country. The operative predicted the endorsement won't play well in states with heavy-hunting populations like, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Minnesota.  "So congratulations, Mr. President," the operative said sardonically. 

GREELEY, Colo. -- Speaking in the battleground state of Colorado, Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan piled on President Barack Obama for apparently suggesting the creation of a new cabinet position.

“He's (Obama) got a new idea for the second term and here's what it is. In addition to all the borrowing and all the spending and all the money printing and all the regulating, he wants a new cabinet position,” Ryan told a crowd at the Island Grove Event Center Thursday. “He wants to create a new 'secretary of business.' You know, we already have a secretary of business. It's actually called secretary of commerce. That's what this agency does.”

Ryan continued knocking the president: “Let me ask you a question: can anybody name our current secretary of commerce? You know why? We don't have one! It's been vacant for over four months and the president hasn't even proposed to put somebody in the job. We don't need another bureaucrat or another bureaucracy, we need another president.”

Obama made the comments during an interview with MSNBC to which both Romney and Ryan talked about on the campaign trail today.

"We don’t need a secretary of business to understand business we need a president who understands business, and I do," Romney said at a rally in the battleground state of Virginia Thursday morning.

Updated 2:58 p.m. - Campaigning for the first time since Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast, President Barack Obama began the final sprint to Election Day in Wisconsin, where he mocked Gov. Mitt Romney’s calling himself the candidate of “big change” while seeking to reclaim that moniker for himself.

While Obama had refrained from politicking since the storm made landfall earlier this week, he dove right back into heated rhetoric, saying Romney is being deceptive in his efforts to recast himself as a reformer.

“In the closing weeks of this campaign, Governor Romney has been using all his talents as a salesman to dress up these very same policies that failed our country so badly,” Obama said.

“And he is offering them up as change. He's saying he's the candidate of change,” Obama continued, as 2,600 supporters at the Austin Straubel airport laughed. “Well, let me tell you, Wisconsin, we know what change looks like. And what the governor's offering sure ain't change."

But even as Obama skewered his opponent, he also highlighted his own efforts at bipartisanship, noting instances when he worked across the aisle in Washington.

“Sometimes Republicans in Congress have worked with me to meet our goals, to cut taxes for small businesses and families like yours, to open new markets for American goods or finally repeal ‘Don't ask, Don't tell,’” he said, adding, however, that sometimes he’s had “big fights” with Republicans that “were worth having.”

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama greets supporters during a campaign rally at Austin Straubel International Airport in Green Bay, Wis., on Nov. 1, 2012.

“I didn't fight those fights for any partisan advantage. I've shown my willingness to work with anybody of any party to move this country forward,” he continued.

The Romney campaign countered Obama's event with a  statement from spokeswoman Amanda Henneberg, which read in part, "We've said all along this election is a choice between the status quo and real change - change that offers promise that the future will be better than the past. President Obama's misguided policies and broken promises have let down millions of Americans, and we can't afford four more years like the last four."

After his Green Bay event, the president headed to Las Vegas, Nevada for another rally.

Updated 2:12 p.m. - President Barack Obama's campaign launched a pair of ads in Michigan defending the 2009 auto bailout, ostensibly in response to a pro-Romney super PAC airing ads in the Wolverine State.

The president's campaign released an upbeat spot, "What He Said," touting the bailout of GM and Chrysler, and "Cynical," an ad meant to combat the misleading spots run by Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney that stoked fears that Jeep would move some of its production to China, at the expense of U.S. jobs.

The Obama campaign has bought airtime in Ohio specifically to run these states in the Buckeye State, along with Michigan. But don't be so quick to assume that putting these ads on Detroit television is all about putting Michigan in play.

As with Detroit's newspapers, several of the Motor City's networks bleed into northwest Ohio and television packages in Toledo. That's prime battleground turf in Ohio -- and, it's the home of a major Jeep production plant, a central part of the recent squabbling on autos.

The Romney campaign said in response: "President Obama can’t run from the facts. As a result of his handling of the auto bailout, American taxpayers stand to lose $25 billion and GM and Chrysler are expanding their production overseas. Unlike President Obama, Mitt Romney has a comprehensive plan to revive manufacturing, create millions of good-paying jobs, and deliver real change and a real recovery."