Previewing tomorrow’s showdown in South Carolina… A Romney win would essentially end the GOP race… But a Gingrich victory extends it… Polls close tomorrow night at 7:00 pm ET… Bob McDonnell endorses Romney… A salute to Jan. 19!... Breaking down last night’s debate: Gingrich deflects the question about his baggage (his failed 2^nd marriage)… Romney raises even more questions about his baggage (those tax returns)… And Santorum has a very strong performance.

Vote: Should a candidate's private life be open for scrutiny?

*** Showdown in South Carolina: Tomorrow’s Republican presidential primary in South Carolina will determine -- as Politico’s Martin put it yesterday -- if the GOP contest essentially ends or if it continues for the next several weeks or even months. A Romney win in a state where he finished fourth four years ago would make him the de facto nominee, proving that he can win in a conservative-dominated state, even if he benefits from a divided conservative vote. But with Newt Gingrich’s newfound momentum (his climbing poll numbers in South Carolina, his strong debate performances, the Perry endorsement), he finds himself in position to win this primary. And if that happens, the Republican presidential race will move on to Florida on Jan. 31 and beyond. Forty-eight hours ago, we all believed that Romney was about to make history, going 3-for-3 in the first three contests. But come Saturday, there’s the potential for another kind of history -- having three different Republican winners in the first three contests. That has never happened before.

*** Big stakes for Romney: As we wrote several days ago, Romney’s fundamental problem is this: He’s been unable so far to win over conservatives in a conservative state. And if he’s unable to beat Gingrich and Rick Santorum in South Carolina -- both of whom have their shortcomings -- it would send a flashing warning signal to party leaders. What’s more, it would produce chatter, fair or not, that the party needs to find someone else, just as Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is set to deliver the GOP response to President Obama’s State of the Union on Tuesday night. And chew on this: Did Team Romney make a mistake by playing so hard in South Carolina? As soon as his campaign gladly accepted Gov. Nikki Haley’s endorsement, it raised the stakes of a contest that was never going to be easy for him. In fact, it reminds us of what happened to Hillary Clinton there four years ago, when Bill Clinton was certain he was going to be able to help his wife in South Carolina and the Clinton campaign went all in. To paraphrase the immortal Admiral Ackbar, South Carolina can be a trap. Polls close tomorrow at 7:00 pm ET, and the GOP turnout in the 2008 primary there was 445,000.

*** Romney gets McDonnell’s endorsement: That said, Romney’s conservative -- and inevitability -- credentials got a major boost this morning when his campaign picked up an endorsement from Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, who’s a potential VP pick. Note that McDonnell’s endorsement comes a day after a fellow conservative governor, Rick Perry, dropped out of the GOP race. And do note that there are just two Republicans on Virginia’s primary ballot: Romney and Ron Paul. NBC’s Garrett Haake reports that McDonnell will appear with Romney on the campaign trail today in South Carolina.

*** A salute to Jan. 19: What a day in American politics yesterday turned out to be! First came the poll numbers showing Gingrich gaining on Romney in South Carolina. Then we found out that Rick Santorum -- and not Romney -- had won Iowa. Then Rick Perry dropped out of the GOP race and endorsed Gingrich. After that, ABC published its Marianne Gingrich story online. President Obama was in Disney World (!!!). The Republicans participated in their 17^th debate, which produced some fireworks (more on that below). And the day ended with Obama signing “Let’s Stay Together” at a New York City fundraiser.

*** Gingrich deflects the question about his baggage… : Speaking of last night’s debate, our biggest takeaway was this: Gingrich did a much better job of dealing with his baggage (Marianne Gingrich and her charge of Newt wanting an open marriage) than Romney dealing with his (those tax returns). Gingrich used the media as foil to deflect the issue -- “I am appalled that you would begin a presidential debate on a topic like that” -- and the crowd ate it up. As MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough has noted, Gingrich channels resentment better than Romney does, and the politics of resentment can be a winner in Republican primaries, especially in the South.

*** ... while Romney raises even more questions about his: Meanwhile, for a second-straight debate, Romney struggled to explain why he hasn’t yet released his tax returns. When he was asked why he won’t release his taxes now, Romney gave this striking answer: Because I want to win. “I want to make sure that I beat President Obama. And every time we release things drip by drip, the Democrats go out with another array of attacks.” (Just asking, but doesn’t that suggest there’s something there? If he’s worried about attacks, then there is something to hide, right?) Romney also looked uncomfortable when he was told that his father released 12 years of his taxes in 1967. Folks, this issue isn’t going away. And whenever these tax returns come out -- if they do -- Romney and his campaign team have now guaranteed it to be a BIG moment in the GOP race. And it’s an unforced error by the campaign.

*** Santorum’s strong performance: Perhaps the best news for Romney at last night’s debate was Santorum’s VERY strong performance. As he’s done before -- but not as well as he did last night -- Santorum made the case that he’s the true conservative in the contest (on health care and social issues like abortion). And he was very aggressive; a man on a mission. Why was it good news for Romney? Because a strong performance by Santorum on Saturday has the potential of bringing down Gingrich’s numbers. The higher Santorum’s vote percentage, the better chance Romney has to win in South Carolina.

*** Other thoughts on the debate: Romney had a strong moment dressing down Gingrich’s tenure in Congress… Outside of Gingrich’s first five minutes responding to the Marianne Gingrich interview, he seemed to disappear for large stretches of the debate… The Romney campaign eagerly seized on Gingrich’s line about “grandiose thoughts”… And Ron Paul struggled to break through and get questions.

***On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: One day before South Carolina’s primary, Gingrich stumps in Charleston, Hartsville, and Mount Pleasant…Santorum hits Lexington, Fort Mill, Boiling Springs, and Charleston...Romney campaigns in Gilbert, Charleston, and Greenville…And Herman Cain (who dropped out of the presidential race) and Colbert (who is not on the ballot) will co-host a rally in Charleston.

*** Christie on “Meet”: NBC’s David Gregory will interview New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Sunday’s “Meet the Press.” 

Countdown to South Carolina primary: 1 day
Countdown to Florida primary: 11 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 15 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 46 days
Countdown to Election Day: 291 days

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*** Friday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Rep. Tim Scott (R-SC) on last night’s debate and the final day of campaigning before South Carolina votes… DNC Executive Director and former Obama White House Political Director Patrick Gaspard on the Democrats outlook for 2012… The New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny and Politico’s Jonathan Martin with more on last night’s debate… More 2012 news with USA Today’s Susan Page, The Rothenberg Report/Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales and former Obama White House Deputy Communications Director Jen Psaki.

*** Friday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Richard Lui interviews RNC Chairman Reince Priebus; California Rep Loretta Sanchez (D); Gallup Polling Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport; former Gingrich spokesman Rich Galen, former DNC Communications Director Karen Finney, Real Clear Politics’ Erin McPike, and Mother Jones’ David Corn.

*** Friday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Herman Cain, former Bachmann spokeswoman Alice Stewart, former RNC Chair and MSNBC Political Analyst Michael Steele, Deputy NYC Mayor and former Clinton Adviser Howard Wolfson, MSNBC’s Melissa Harris-Perry, and the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein

*** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up (from Charleston, SC): NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Romney supporter John Sununu, former Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler, Ron Paul campaign chairman Jesse Benton, the DNC’s Brad Woodhouse, the Washington Post and MSNBC Political Analyst Eugene Robinson, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, Politico’s Charles Mahtesian, former Sen. Chris Dodd, and NBC’s Craig Melvin.

The Washington Post: “In an electric debate here Thursday night, the four remaining Republican presidential candidates clashed sharply over who has the temperament, character and know-how to lead the party into a general election as they clamored to take advantage of the race’s changing dynamic. Newt Gingrich said it was ‘despicable’ of the news media to raise questions about a previous marriage. A feisty Rick Santorum offered himself as the only true conservative in the race and accused his two main rivals for ‘playing footsie with the left.’”

“Mr. Romney told Mr. Gingrich that for all his talk aligning himself with Ronald Reagan during his days in Congress, ‘I looked at the Reagan diary; you’re mentioned once.’ Mr. Santorum questioned Mr. Gingrich’s grip on logic, at one point telling him, ‘These are not cogent thoughts’ and more generally accusing him of grandiosity and instability,” the New York Times adds. “Mr. Gingrich gave it right back to both of them, pointedly raising Mr. Romney’s past position in favor of abortion rights — a stance Mr. Romney has since changed — and implying that Mr. Santorum’s ideas were too small for the challenges of the times.”

“Mitt Romney perpetuated one unsubstantiated claim, about his record at Bain Capital, and more or less corrected himself on another, about President Barack Obama's health care law, in the latest Republican presidential debate,” the AP writes in a fact check. “His rivals flubbed history, Newt Gingrich blaming a Democratic president for a jobless rate he never had, and Ron Paul painting an idyllic picture of life before Medicare that did not reflect deprivations of that time.”

“The crush of campaign ad spending in South Carolina has swollen to more than $12 million so far, with candidates and independent groups paying top dollar to elbow for room in the state's crucial advertising marketplace,” AP writes.

COLBERT/CAIN: What to expect today at comedian Stephen Colbert’s and former candidate Herman Cain’s rally at 1:00 pm ET in Charleston? "There will be speeches, there will be cheerleaders, there will be a marching band and a gospel band — this is going to be even better than my rally in D.C.," Colbert said on his show, per the New York Daily News.

The press release for the rally: “Rock Me Like a Herman Cain.”

GINGRICH: “Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich appeared to time the release of his 2010 tax return for maximum impact on front-runner Mitt Romney, who has delayed releasing his own tax information,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “Mr. Gingrich released his 2010 return, dated March of 2011, about 20 minutes into Thursday night’s critical campaign debate in South Carolina.”

More: “But the former House speaker’s tax return also was likely to prompt lots of curiosity about Mr. Gingrich himself, his taxes, and how he makes and spends his money – or doesn’t. Mr. Gingrich’s return lists his occupation as ‘consultant,’ and his wife Callista’s as ‘executive.’ … His effective income-tax rate was relatively high – about 31.5%, a lot more than Mr. Romney’s roughly 15% in recent years.”

And: “Much of Mr. Gingrich’s income – $2.5 million of it – came from partnerships and Subchapter S corporations, which generally are not taxable themselves, but pass through their profits to their owners.”

Gingrich files the companies of “Newt Inc.” (Gingrich Communications, Gingrich Productions, for example) as S-Corps, the way many small businesses file. They pay a lower tax rate than regular income. But lumped into Gingrich Communications, for example, is money from Gingrich’s FOX contract, many of his speeches, and advisory boards, Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond told First Read Nov. 30. In effect, that would allow Gingrich to pay a lower tax rate on that income.

The New York Daily News on Gingrich: “He might be the Swinger-in-Chief.” It adds that at last night’s debate Gingrich “seethed with indignation” when responding to a question about charges from his ex-wife that he wanted an “open marriage.”

ROMNEY: He gets this headline in the New York Daily News: “Mitt Romney booed at GOP debate in South Carolina on taxes, Newt Gingrich releases his.” 

Stu Rothenberg had this provocative headline the other day: “Mitt McCain — The GOP’s Strange Replay of 2008.” And he makes this point on Romney’s math: “For Romney, the scariest number might well be 15 percent — the figure he drew in the Palmetto State’s 2008 primary. The former Massachusetts governor built strong bases in Iowa and New Hampshire four years ago, and he matched his 2008 showing exactly in Iowa this year (25 percent) and exceeded it by a few points in New Hampshire last week (32 percent in 2008 compared with 39 percent now). But Romney can’t merely match or barely exceed his ’08 showing in South Carolina to win Saturday’s Republican primary. He’ll need to approach doubling that showing to ensure another win. Romney probably can win South Carolina by drawing the same number that McCain did in the state four years ago: 33 percent. And, while it isn’t inevitable, that certainly seems possible.” 

SANTORUM: The New York Post: “Rick did win Iowa.” The story: Better late than never. The final tally from the Iowa caucuses yesterday showed that Rick Santorum actually won — although that news came more than two weeks after Mitt Romney was mistakenly declared the victor. The mix-up robbed Santorum of credit and much-needed campaign momentum for his amazing upset victory.”

“James C. Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, a conservative evangelical Christian group, has endorsed Rick Santorum for president,” The Hill writes. "He has pleaded with the nation and its leaders to come to the aid of marriages, parents, and their children. What a refreshing message," Dobson said in a statement on Thursday. “While there are other GOP candidates who are worthy of our support, Sen. Santorum is the man of the hour. His knowledge of international politics, especially Israel and the turmoil in the Middle East, is highly relevant to the dangerous world in which we live. This is why I am endorsing former Senator Rick Santorum for president of the United States, and urge my countrymen to join us in this campaign."

The New York Daily News says “Santorum assaulted Newt Gingrich’s soft underbelly Thursday — the belief of party elders that he’s too hair-triggered to be allowed anywhere near the Oval Office.”

“In its budget submission next month, the Obama administration will urge lawmakers to revisit the failed attempt by a congressional supercommittee to cut the deficit by at least $1.2 trillion, the White House says,” per the AP. “The proposal runs counter to the common wisdom in Washington that any major deficit reduction effort is unlikely in a presidential election year. Instead, lawmakers are focusing on a one-year extension of a payroll tax cut and supplemental jobless benefits sought by the president as part of last fall's jobs agenda.”

“President Obama last night raked in millions for his re-election bid at glitzy back-to-back fund-raisers, ending at Harlem’s Apollo Theater,” The New York Post reports. “Obama first spoke at two high-roller events at the exclusive Daniel restaurant, where about 160 backers paid between $5,000 to $15,000 for tickets. Obama then stopped at Spike Lee’s Upper East Side brownstone, where 45 guests, including Mariah Carey, spent up to $35,800 for the event.” Obama also told a story of bringing Michelle Obama on a first date – to see Spike Lee’s Do The Right Thing and he even belted out a few bars of Al Green’s Let’s Stay Together. Green was at the event.

Newt Gingrich opened a pivotal Republican presidential debate with a fiery attack on the media for publishing stories regarding new allegations made against him by an ex-wife.

Gingrich assailed, in no uncertain terms, CNN moderator John King for opening the debate by asking Gingrich to answer allegations made by his ex-wife, Marianne, in an interview with ABC News, saying the then-speaker of the House asked to engage in an "open marriage," or else he would file for divorce.

"I am appalled that you would begin a presidential debate with a topic like that," Gingrich said, earning wild applause from the audience. "To take an ex-wife and make it two days before the primary a significant question in a presidential campaign is as close to despicable as anything I can imagine."

Gingrich disputed the allegations as "false," and his three fellow Republicans onstage resisted piling on. ("Let's get on to the real issues," former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said.)

It was a spirited opening to a debate that capped one of the most politically tumultuous days of the 2012 cycle.

Not all supporters of the Keystone XL oil pipeline are blaming President Obama after he rejected the project proposal yesterday.

One example: Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D).

“What the State Department is tasked with doing is getting a complete application that says, ‘Here is the pipeline being proposed.’ But unfortunately, in an unprecedented way, the governor of Nebraska called a special session, changed the laws in Nebraska so that TransCanada no longer has a route, and there’s been no permit granted in Nebraska,” Schweitzer said today on MSNBC’s "Andrea Mitchell Reports."

Because the pipeline route is not yet approved in Nebraska, President Obama had no choice but to strike down the proposal, Gov. Schweitzer explained.

“In Nebraska, they say it’s going to be at least six months, maybe a year before they can actually grant a permit. And yet we’re standing before the administration and saying to them, ‘We have an inadequate application, it’s not complete, we don’t know where the route is, so we can’t tell you how big the pipeline will be or where it’s going to be delivered to, now we want you to give us approval.’”

He added, “These jokers in Congress that are trying to force the president to approve of an incomplete application are just making mischief. They’re not helping us develop energy,” he said.

Montana, where the employment rate is below the national average at 7.1%, has a particular interest in seeing the pipeline built -- so that its oil can reach the refineries on the Gulf coast and make it to market, Gov. Schweitzer explained.

“As the chief executive of Montana, if they asked me to approve of a pipeline with an incomplete application, I would have to reject it. And I am the biggest proponent of this pipeline in America,” he said.

All eyes are on the GOP hopefuls who are taking the stage tonight in South Carolina at a debate hosted by CNN and the Southern Republican Leadership Conference.

The NBC political team will be live-tweeting the debate, offering minute-by-minute updates and analysis.

Tweets from NBC producers and correspondents  will appear in this post as the debate begins at 9 p.m. ET.

CHARLESTON, SC -- Erstwhile presidential candidate Herman Cain made his promised "unconventional endorsement" on Thursday, explaining to Republicans here that he supports "the people" in 2012.

The former Godfather's Pizza CEO appeared at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference to make his announcement weeks after having ended his own presidential campaign.

“Here is my unconventional endorsement: not a candidate seeking the nomination, not someone that’s not running. My unconventional endorsement is the people,” Cain bellowed to a near-empty arena at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference.

"We the people of this nation are still in charge! That's who I'm endorsing! Because we're the ones that are going to have to lead this revolution. We're the ones who are gonna be able to take our power back. I'm endorsing the people, the people who started this country," he added.

Less than five minutes later, Cain -- clad in one of his signature gold ties -- told reporters he still may choose to endorse an actual candidate in the near future.

"Now the fact that I made an unconventional endorsement does not rule out that I still might endorse someone. I'm simply not going to do it now," he said. "I wanted my unconventional endorsement to be a part of a bigger message. That bigger position is Washington is broke."

Cain, in an attempt to reassert relevance in the GOP race, said that he "stopped by here to tell y'all today we need another revolution! We need a solutions revolution!"

Fresh off a bus boasting his 9-9-9 tax plan and his new "Solutions Revolution" tour, Cain's self-confidence was unwavering.

"This time it won't be about bombs and bullets. We are not going to fight it with bombs and bullets. We are going to fight this solutions revolution with brains and ballots at the ballot box," Cain told a handful of Republicans from around the country.

The Georgia-based businessman also ruled out another White House bid, at least during this cycle.

"No, I have not considered coming back into the race. Here's why, real simply, I chose to put family first," Cain explained, citing "lies that have been spun over and over" causing "tears in [his] wife's eyes."

Cain also used his moment in the spotlight to dispense personal advice to frontrunner Newt Gingrich, ahead of a television interview with the former speaker's second wife set to air this evening.

"The American people don't care. My recommendation to Speaker Gingrich is don't focus on it," he said, drawing on sexual allegations made against him during his candidacy.

Tomorrow, Cain will appear in Charleston again alongside comedian Stephen Colbert for a rally entitled “The Rock Me Like a Herman Cain: South Cain-olina Primary Rally.”

CHARLESTON, SC -- Despite revised results in the Iowa caucus showing he finished 24 votes ahead of Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum found his potential moment in the sun overshadowed Thursday by news that a rival Republican was exiting the race.

The Iowa GOP's official tally, until today, had Santorum losing to Romney by eight votes, but on Thursday the Republican Party of Iowa today released the certified tally, which gave Santorum a 34 vote advantage over Mitt Romney. NBC News will not declare a winner in the race.

But the questions the former Pennsylvania senator had faced throughout the day about the recount were paired with queries about Texas Gov. Rick Perry's departure from the race.

"We can win elections, we can organize, we can put together an effort to pull the resources together to be able to be successful in being the person that can defeat Mitt Romney because guess what, we defeated Mitt Romney in Iowa," Santorum said this morning about the revised results.

But the follow up about reaction to Perry leaving the race: "I know it's a tough day and it's been a tough process for them and my heart and prayers go out to them and congratulations to them on stepping up when you thought your country was calling you to try to make a difference."

Along with his announcement to leave the race, Perry also endorsed Newt Gingrich, a blow to Santorum, whose campaign is attempting to appeal to many of the same conservative voters Perry did. Still, after an appearance at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, Santorum maintained that anytime the field narrows is a good thing for him.

Speaking at the SRLC just moments before former presidential candidate Herman Cain, Santorum remained focused touting his Iowa victory. While how the development will impact Santorum in the polls remains unclear, campaign aides he said they have already seen a bump in fundraising.

Still, the former Pennsylvania senator is still struggling to compete with Gingrich and Romney in the Palmetto State, proclaiming only that he would show momentum here.

"We feel very, very good about what this win will mean," he said.

Updated 6:16 p.m.

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- After winning the support of former rival Rick Perry this morning, Newt Gingrich's endorsement momentum continued among members of South Carolina's political establishment as he picked up former supporters of Jon Huntsman and Perry, along with few influential GOP fundraisers.

Richard Quinn, Huntsman's top South Carolina strategist who worked for John McCain in 2008, is endorsing Gingrich along with his son Rick, a state senator who had also endorsed Huntsman. The senior Quinn had also worked as an adviser to Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign, an aspect of his resume Gingrich may soon highlight.

Mike Campbell, the son of former South Carolina Gov. Carroll Campbell, who also backed Huntsman, announced his support of Gingrich today. Bob McAlister, a former chief of staff to compbell who had aided the Huntsman and McCain campaigns, also backed Gingrich.

Several influential members of the South Carolina business community are also rallying behind Gingrich today including two former Huntsman backers: businessman John Rainey and Gayle Averyt, former chairman of the Colonial life insurance company. Former Tanzania ambassador Bob Royall, another bundler for Bush and McCain, also endorsed Gingrich.

Huntsman exited the race on Monday, and endorsed Mitt Romney -- not Gingrich -- in the GOP primary.

Those business leaders, as well as several of their friends and colleagues, met with Gingrich last week in an effort to coalesce around a candidate as they had done in 2000, when they rallied around George W. Bush, and 2008, when they endorsed McCain. They also considered Rick Santorum, who also spoke with the group last week.

Gingrich also nabbed a major former Perry backer, South Carolina state House Speaker Bobby Harrell, who was part of a 20-plus group of influential Republicans who endorsed Perry in late October. Another Perry supporter, South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney, said today that he did not "anticipate endorsing any other candidate between now and Saturday."

While Gingrich seemed to collect up the most endorsements today, one influential Republican joined the Romney camp: David Wilkins, a former state House speaker and ambassador to Canada during George W. Bush's administration. (Wilkins' brother Billy, a prominent lawyer here, is a Gingrich supporter.)

Wilkins told NBC News today that he met Romney and his wife six years ago during a breakfast in Boston with other U.S. ambassadors.

Just when we thought the Republican presidential primary season was about to essentially end -- with Mitt Romney's expected victory in South Carolina -- we today received a reminder that it isn't over.

At least for now.

In the past 12 hours this Thursday:
-- New polls, including the NBC/Marist survey, showed Newt Gingrich gaining ground on Romney in South Carolina.

-- The Iowa Republican Party released the certified results showing that Romney didn't win the Jan. 3 caucuses.

-- In a surprise, Rick Perry dropped out of the race and endorsed Gingrich.

-- And ABC released a clip of its interview with Gingrich's second wife, Marianne, who charged that former House speaker asked to have an open marriage while he was having an affair with his now-third wife, Callista.

What a day.

Politico's Jonathan Martin, writing about the crazy day of activity, says the events "could determine whether the campaign effectively ends this weekend or continues for weeks or even months."

And as Mike O'Brien notes, the day isn't even over -- the 17th GOP debate of the cycle is set for tonight.

Of course, today's wild day epitomizes what has been a wild campaign season. The poll surges and declines. Herman Cain's rise and fall. The Super PAC attacks. Flirtations by Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, and Chris Christie. Perry's "Oops." Romney's $10,000 bet. Bain Capital. Tax returns.

And we're still in January. 

TAMPLA, FL -- Michele Bachmann's campaign is denying the Minnesota congresswoman has either endorsed or ruled out supporting a candidate following the circulation of a fraudulent news release in South Carolina.

A release, which appears to show the Minnesota congresswoman denouncing Newt Gingrich two weeks after Bachmann ended her campaign, was distributed by email to voters in South Carolina yesterday.

The campaign's former communications director, Alice Stewart, issued this response: "The Bachmann for President campaign has not issued an official statement regarding an endorsement of any current candidate in the GOP race ahead of the South Carolina primary. Any information found to the contrary is inaccurate."

NBC News has obtained a copy of the release, which was printed on campaign letterhead and made to look like a news release sent on behalf of the candidate herself. 

The release promises an endorsement in the "coming weeks," but notes, "through this exhaustive process of consideration, it was strikingly obvious that one candidate could not be less acceptable to be our Party's nominee." 

Describing a candidate lacking "poise, experience and moral fibre," the release names Gingrich, calling him "desperately flawed."

If nothing else, the incident demonstrates that Bachmann's voice is valuable enough to counterfeit, and it marks the second time in a week that former top aides have complained her name is being misused.

On Friday, campaign manager Keith Nahigian directed a lawyer to ask South Carolina radio stations to take down an advertisement he said created the false impression she is endorsing the former House speaker.

CHARLESTON, SC -- Looking to blunt the momentum of Newt Gingrich's latest surge in the polls, the Romney campaign today held a conference call with former New Hampshire Governor and George H.W. Bush chief of staff John H. Sununu, one of Gingrich's most vocal critics.

On the call, Sununu and Rep. Peter King (R-NY) hammered Gingrich for his "ego," "narcissism," and "baggage" -- including a 1997 ethics investigation that resulted in a $300,000 penalty for Gingrich. Sununu warned that the records of that investigation could serve as the basis for a pro-Obama "October surprise" if Gingrich become the nominee.

"The point is that there was a 7-to-1 vote in that ethics committee, which means the material was pretty convincing, even to the four Republicans, three of which [voted] against him. I think it reflects on his reliability as a leader. And frankly, affects on the fact that whatever Congressman Pelosi was part of that process and whatever Congresswoman Pelosi knows, President Obama knows," Sununu said.

"And if Pelosi knows, Obama knows. And if Obama knows, this is certainly a ripe package for an October surprise. And we ought to at least wring out the laundry now. He ought to ask for the release of the complete records of the ethics process and get that out in public so that he doesn’t become a vulnerable candidate if he wins the nomination and doesn’t become vulnerable to an October surprise."

But when NBC News asked Sununu whether, speaking of potential surprises, Romney should release his personal income tax returns sooner rather than later -- as Romney's Republican rivals have demanded repeatedly of late -- Sununu suggested the tax returns would quickly become a non-issue.

"That issue will work its way out as you guys keep asking the question. I am not an expert on what horrors may be in the tax return. I generally find that the important thing about tax returns is people asking the question. And when they come out, people end up saying 'Is that all there is to that?'" Sununu said. "Probably the most stunning thing you'll see is how generous he's been in supporting charities."

Strikingly, the exchange over Romney's tax returns was not included in the campaign's official transcript or audio file of the call, which was emailed to reporters.

Asked by NBC why the tax return question and answer were omitted from the campaign's transcript, a Romney campaign spokesperson replied: "It was a really long call."

CHARLESTON, SC -- Mitt Romney stuck to form Thursday by maintaining his focus on President Obama amid a tumultuous day in the GOP primary that saw Rick Perry bow out, Newt Gingrich surging and the results of the Iowa caucuses called into question.

Romney did what he usually does, keeping his focus on Obama, while deploying surrogates to question rivals and rolling out a new endorsement to help maintain the air of inevitability he's built around his campaign.

"Where is [President Obama]? He is at Disney World," Romney said. "He is giving a speech today. Guess where is gonna be giving a speech? ... He is giving a speech in Fantasyland. Alright, now think about that. He is going to be in Fantasyland and it is obviously appropriate because he has been living in a sort of fantasy land these last few years.  He will be talking about what a great job he is doing on the economy. Has he not been out here?  Has he not seen nine-point-nine percent unemployment in South Carolina?"
 
Romney stuck to a tried-and-tested strategy on a roller coaster ride of a day on the campaign trail that saw Texas Gov. Rick Perry drop out of the campaign and endorse Gingrich, the former speaker of the House: Focus on Obama, roll out a major endorsement, and let his surrogates take on the other Republican candidates.
 
Romney's rally this morning with volunteers and supporters was delayed slightly, and the candidate delivered his remarks just as Perry's press conference was getting underway. After the rally, Romney was asked to respond to the Texas governor's exit.
 
"He's a great conservative. A great man," Romney said. "He made a real contribution -- he already has -- to his state and to our country."
 
Romney did not respond when asked his thoughts on Perry's decision to endorse Gingrich, whom new NBC News/Marist polling shows cutting into Romney's once-sizable lead here in South Carolina.
 
Joined this morning by a phalanx of top-drawer endorsers of his own, including former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and the newest member of team Romney, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, Romney dinged Gingrich on the speaker's job creation claims during Monday's debate.
 
"[President Obama] may bump into Speaker Gingrich down there in Fantasyland. I only say that because the speaker was talking about all the jobs that he helped create in the Reagan years.  He had been in Congress two years when Reagan came to office. The idea that he was the author of Reaganomics -- not real likely," Romney said. "The idea that people in Washington think that somehow they are responsible after they have been there for two years for creating millions of jobs -- it is the kind of fantasy that happens. If you have been there too long I think you get this mindset that you’re really creating the vitality of the nation."
 
Romney left the heavy hitting on Gingrich to former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu, the pioneer of attacks on Gingrich for the Romney campaign, along with New York Rep. Peter King. They attacked Gingrich's "erratic" behavior as speaker during a conference call with supporters, echoing language Sununu used in early December, when Gingrich first began to rise in the polls. This time, however, it was King who delivered the toughest blow.
 
"You just go down the list of people who served with him and the overwhelming number. We had ... well over 218 Republicans in the Congress when Newt was the speaker, and you can’t find more than a handful who will come to his defense. And it has nothing to do with ideology, nothing to do with philosophy, it’s all the erratic, self-serving narcissism of Newt,” King said.
 
Sununu additionally called on Gingrich to release the records of a 1997 ethics investigation into his conduct, which they said could become fodder for President Obama's campaign in a general election.
 
"We ought to at least wring out the laundry now," Sununu said. "He ought to ask for the release of the complete records of the ethics process and get that out in public so that he doesn’t become a vulnerable candidate if he wins the nomination and doesn’t become vulnerable to an October Surprise."

Aides to former Sen. Rick Santorum say he just received a phone call today from Mitt Romney offering congratulations for the new result in the Iowa caucuses.

According to the Florida GOP, more than 143,000 votes have already been cast in the Florida primary through absentee and early votes.

The total number is mostly made up of absentee votes, but early voting -- which Florida allows -- also makes up a small portion of the number. Per Florida GOP spokesman Brian Hughes, 138,043 votes have been cast via absentee ballot; 5,024 have been cast in early voting.

1.9 million Florida Republicans voted in the 2008 Florida primary.

The news comes on the same day that Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses were thrown into question by a certification of results showing Rick Santorum pulling ahead of the once-declared victor, Mitt Romney. (Because of votes missing in eight precincts, NBC News won't declare a winner in that contest.)

The Miami Herald, putting salt in Iowa's wounds, notes today there have already been more votes cast early in Florida than the record-breaking total of 122,000 total cast cast in Iowa's caucuses.

NORTH CHARLESTON, SC -- Just over five months after his campaign began, Texas Gov. Rick Perry today exited the presidential race and endorsed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

"I know when it's time to make a strategic retreat, so I will leave the trail and return home to Texas and wind down my 2012 campaign organization," the governor said in a cramped hotel ballroom here at a hastily-called press conference.

"As I have contemplated the future of this campaign, I have come to the conclusion that there is no viable path to victory for my candidacy in 2012," he said.

Spokesman Ray Sullivan told reporters that Perry made the decision to drop out late yesterday and alerted some senior staff last night. (Sullivan found out while eating at a Charleston area Wendy's.) His determination came as multiple conservative commentators were calling for his exit, and as several key endorsers in the state defected from his campaign.

Announcing his endorsement of Gingrich -- whom he had criticized during the campaign as a "Washington insider" and supporter of the individual mandate -- Perry alluded to the former speaker's checkered personal past.

"Newt is not perfect, but who among us is?" Perry said. "The fact is there is forgiveness for those who seek God, and I believe in the power of redemption, for it is a central tenet of my own Christian faith."

Perry -- himself an evangelical Christian who proudly cites that he married the first woman he dated as a young man -- was joined at the press conference by his wife Anita, his son Griffin, and "Lone Survivor" author and decorated veteran Marcus Luttrell and his wife.

"Now the journey leads us back to Texas, neither discouraged nor disenchanted, but instead rewarded for the experience and resolute to remain in the arena and in the service of a great nation," Perry said.

As did his decision to remain in the race after the Iowa caucuses, today's decision came as a surprise to many members of his staff on the ground, who believed that Perry might want to appear at one last redeeming debate after becoming famous for his shaky performances early in his run.

Sullivan said on Wednesday that Perry has not ruled out a run for re-election in Texas nor another run for president in 2016.

Updated at 2:55 p.m. ET

Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn says Rick Santorum is the winner of the Iowa Caucus. Period.

After the Republican Party of Iowa released the final certified results Thursday morning with eight missing precincts, Strawn released a statement saying he wanted to congratulate both "Senator Santorum and Governor Romney on a hard-fought effort during the closest contest in caucus history.” The press release specifically did not state a specific winner of the Jan 3. Caucus, rather implying it was a tie.

But this afternoon, Strawn went on WHO Radio in Iowa and announced there should be no “ambiguity,” that Santorum is, in fact, the winner.

"Certified results show Rick Santorum leading or won by 34 votes,” Strawn told Jan Mickelson, noting that he needed to apologize to Santorum for any misunderstanding.

On MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," Strawn said, "In the wee hours of Jan. 4 ... I explained we had a two-week certification process."

Thursday afternoon, NBC News reported that Santorum aides say received a phone call from Mitt Romney offering congratulations for the new result in the Iowa caucuses.

The switch of views comes just hours after a prominent Iowa Republican, Craig Robinson, called for Strawn’s removal as chairman.

“Matt Strawn should be removed as RPI Chairman for refusing to declare Santorum the winner. The votes are either certified or they are not,” tweeted Robinson, who was the state party's political director last cycle.

It is unclear whether Strawn felt pressure from other prominent leaders in Iowa to make the switch, but the chairman was very assertive on the radio program -- even further acknowledging that if the missing precincts were able to be counted, if the results they currently have for them stuck, Santorum would be the winner either way.

But it is common knowledge in the Hawkeye State that Strawn has hopes of running for higher office in the state and obviously would not want complications over caucus results surrounding any run.

Many, though, wonder if the caucus process as a whole can continue in this fashion -- a process of hand-writing names on pieces of paper like a straw poll.

"One of the strengths of the Iowa caucus process is that the state was a level, fair playing field. Candidates could come to the state and get an honest airing. There aren't political machines or a history of fraud. The inaccurate counting tarnishes that reputation,” longtime Des Moines Register reporter David Yepsen told NBC News Thursday.

There has not been any official press release from the Republican Party of Iowa naming Santorum the winner, but the Santorum campaign and Strawn have.

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell contributed to this report.

BEAUFORT, S.C. -- Newt Gingrich addressed the Rick Perry endorsement right off the top of his speech here.

"I was very honored and very humbled to have Gov. Perry speak so well about endorsing me just a few minutes ago," Gingrich said.

He added that he and wife Callista are both fond of the Perrys.

"He has been a great patriot," Gingrich told the crowd. Gingrich also said he and Perry talked this morning and the speaker asked him to head up a "10th-Amendment enforcement project."

News organizations may never be able to definitively declare the winner of the 2012 Iowa GOP caucus because of missing results from eight of 1,774 precincts.

The Iowa Republican party today released "final, certified vote totals" from 1,766 of 1,774 counties, and it shows Rick Santorum 34 votes ahead of Mitt Romney, a 42-vote swing in Santorum's favor from Election Night.

For what it's worth, in the eight counties where those "lost" precincts are, Santorum beat Romney by a net of 87 votes. (Of course, that's not necessarily indicative of anything considering how slim even that margin is.)

• Romney won Cerro Gordo by 63 votes
• Santorum beat Romney by 23 votes in Emmet (Perry was second)
• Santorum beat Romney by 47 votes in Franklin (Paul was second, Gingrich third)
• Paul won Lee. Santorum was second, beating Romney by 26 votes.
• Santorum won Pocahontas by 54 votes over Romney (who finished 4^th). Paul finished second, Perry third.

Here are the eight "lost" precincts:

* Cerro Gordo County’s Mason City Ward 2, Precinct 3
* Emmet County’s Estherville Ward 2
* Franklin County’s Geneva-Reeve
* Lee County’s Fort Madison 4A
* Lee County’s Fort Madison 4B
* Lee County’s Franklin-Cedar-Marion
* Lee County’s Washington-Green Bay-Denmark
* Pocahontas County’s Center-South Roosevelt-North Lincoln

Remember, this is a party function. There are no state laws governing recounts. And there very well could have been lost totals because this is a straw poll. People could have folded over their votes, turned them in, and then results were phoned in, but perhaps the hard copies not saved. Some precincts didn't even call in results.

/

Republican presidential candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry pauses during a news conference in North Charleston, S.C., Thursday, Jan. 19, 2012, where he announced he is suspending his campaign and endorsing Newt Gingrich.

Two days before the South Carolina primary, Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced he is suspending his campaign for the Republican nomination and endorsing rival Newt Gingrich.

"As a Texan, I've never shied away from a fight," Perry said. He added, though, "I know when it’s time to make a strategic retreat."

A slew of polls in the last day and a half have shown Perry in a distant fourth place in South Carolina, in single digits.

Perry burst out of the gate in August when he announced he was running for president. He jumped out to big leads nationally, but saw a rapid collapse in those same polls after a series of disappointing debate performances.

Notably, in a CNBC debate in Michigan, he forgot three agencies he would cut. "Oops," he said after realizing he could not recall the three. Perry tried to laugh it off, going on the late-night talk shows, but he never recovered, finishing fifth in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

"I have come to the conclusion that there is no viable path forward for me," Perry said before throwing his support to Gingrich.

"I believe Newt is a conservative visionary, who can transform our country," Perry said.

Gingrich today is dealing with an explosive interview conducted by ABC News with Gingrich's ex-wife, Marianne, who claimed Gingrich wanted an "open marrage." Perry seemed to allude to what many on the trail and in ads have referred to as that "baggage."

"Newt is not perfect," Perry said, "but who among us is. There is forgiveness for those who seek God. I believe in the power of redemption. ... He has the heart of a conservative reformer."

Perry concluded, "This I know, I'm not done fighting for the cause of conservativism. As a matter of fact, I have just begun to fight."

The Republican Party of Iowa announced Thursday that Rick Santorum finished ahead of Mitt Romney in its Jan. 3 caucuses, meaning the contest resulted in a virtual tie between the two candidates. 

After more than two weeks of certifying the results, the former Pennsylvania senator pulled ahead of Romney by 34 votes despite Romney being declared the winner on Jan. 3 by an 8 vote margin.

The final official numbers stand at Santorum with 29,839 and Romney with 29,805, but the results from eight of the 1774 precincts could not be located and certified, leaving lingering questions as to who is the actual winner of the Iowa Caucus.

NBC News will not declare a winner in the Iowa Caucus. With the missing precincts, it is impossible to know the final results.

But the Santorum campaign believes the former Pennsylvania senator is the winner of the caucus – campaign email reads “Santorum wins Iowa” – and that this new development will perhaps help him the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

"We've had two early state contests with two winners — and the narrative that Governor Romney and the media have been touting of 'inevitability' has been destroyed,” National Communications Director Hogan Gidley said in a statement about the candidate.

“This latest defeat of Governor Romney in Iowa is just the beginning, and Rick Santorum is committed to continuing the fight as the clear, consistent conservative voice in this race,” the statement continued. Santorum was the one candidate who practically lived in Iowa – holding more events in the Hawkeye State than anyone else this cycle.

The Romney campaign, which always downplayed expectations in the state, is also pushing this as a tie.

“The results from Iowa caucus night revealed a virtual tie,” Mitt Romney said in a written statement released by his campaign. “I would like to thank the Iowa Republican Party for their careful attention to the caucus process, and we once again recognize Rick Santorum for his strong performance in the state. The Iowa caucuses, with record turnout, were a great start to defeating President Obama in Iowa and elsewhere in the general election.”

Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn said the verdict from the first-in-the-nation caucus state is just too close to call.

“Just as I did in the early morning hours on January 4, I congratulate Senator Santorum and Governor Romney on a hard-fought effort during the closest contest in caucus history,” Chairman Strawn said in a statement. “Our goal throughout the certification process was to most accurately reflect and report how Iowans voted the evening of January 3. We understand the importance to the candidates involved, but as Iowans, we understand the responsibility we have as temporary caretakers of the Iowa caucuses.”

It is important to note that the Iowa Caucus results are not binding, meaning the results do not dictate which candidate the delegates at the national conventions in the summer have to vote for. So not having an actual “winner” of the caucuses will not have as big of an impact as it would in other binding states.

But a shift in results — from Romney ahead on caucus night, to Santorum now ahead weeks later — does appear to raise some questions about the Iowa Caucus process.

"This is bad news for the Iowa caucuses.  It undermines their credibility in future presidential races. When so much is riding on an accurate count, to flub the counting will diminish the significance of the events in the future,” former longtime Des Moines Register political reporter David Yepsen told NBC News.

"Plenty of people are looking for reasons not to come to Iowa and this gives them another. You could title this story as Farewell to Corn Dogs," Yepsen said, who also noted that this isn’t the first time Iowa Caucus result have been called into questions. “Given that, the Iowa Republicans were on notice and should have done more to guard against this problem."

And no matter how the results turned out weeks later, many believe the limelight already passed for the “winner” — it passed on Jan. 3.

“This result doesn't change anything. The narrative was set following the caucuses, and reset after the New Hampshire primaries,” one Republican strategist and caucus veteran said.

David Goldman / AP

Republican presidential candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry pauses while announcing he is suspending his campaign and endorsing Newt Gingrich, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2012, in North Charleston, S.C.

Updated at 12:30 p.m. ET 

Texas Governor Rick Perry announced Thursday morning that he is dropping out of the presidential race and is endorsing Newt Gingrich for the Republican nomination.

"There is no viable path forward for me," he told supporters on Thursday. "I gave fully of myself for a cause worthy of this country," he added. Perry said it was time for him to make a "strategic retreat."

Spokesman Ray Sullivan told reporters after the announcement that money was a factor; that the campaign had gone through "the bulk of our friends." He added that Perry is not yet ruling out running for re-election as governor or making another play for the White House in four years.

Of Gingrich, Perry said Thursday, "Newt is not perfect, but who among us is?" Perry continued, "There is forgiveness for those who seek God." He applauded Gingrich as "a conservative visionary who can transform our country." 

The former House speaker watched Perry's speech from his campaign bus, parked outside of Beaufort, S.C. He said he was "honored and humbled" by the endorsement. He called Perry a "great patriot."

Gingrich's candidacy has been boosted by strong debate performances, with another debate scheduled for Thursday. But he's likely to receive more unflattering attention when ABC News airs an interview with his second wife, Marianne Gingrich. In the interview, Marianne Gingrich says Gingrich asked her for an "open marriage" in which he could have both a wife and a mistress, and she refused.

Story: Gingrich ex-wife says he sought 'open' relationship

Perry's withdrawal and endorsement of Gingrich is a further sign that he's emerging as the main rival to Romney, who has failed to persuade many Republicans of his conservative credentials.

Perry had faced calls to drop out of the race to compel conservative voters, whose support has been divided among several conservative candidates, to rally behind Gingrich in hopes of stopping Romney. Recent polls show Gingrich gaining steam heading into the South Carolina primary, but he still trails Romney by about 10 percentage points.

Saturday's contest has been seen as the pivotal battle in the race, following what had initially been declared a narrow victory for Romney in Iowa, the first nominating contest, and a solid Romney win in last week's New Hampshire primary. Since 1980, no Republican has won the presidential nomination without a victory in the state.

But Republican officials said Thursday that Rick Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, edged the former Massachusetts governor in Iowa by 34 votes, though no winner was declared because some votes remain missing.

Story: Santorum declares victory after revised Iowa caucus total

Perry entered the race last August to great fanfare and high poll numbers. But his standing quickly fell after a series of campaign blunders. During a nationally televised debate in early November, he could not remember the name of the third Cabinet department he had pledged to eliminate. "Oops," he told the audience. He later admitted of the gaffe, "I stepped in it."

Perry finished fifth in both Iowa and New Hampshire and, at one at one point said he was going to go back to Texas to reassess his path forward, but then headed to South Carolina instead.

Recommended: Rick Perry slideshow

Perry made his announcement to withdraw from the race just hours before Thursday night's GOP debate. He was joined on stage by his wife Anita and son, Griffin, and stressed that the Republican Party "transcends any one individual."

He said that "the campaign has never been about the candidates," and lamented, "a calling never guarantees a particular outcome."

A stop to Romney’s coronation?... With certified results from Iowa (though eight missing precincts), Santorum ended up with a 34-vote advantage over Romney… And a new NBC/Marist poll shows Gingrich gaining ground on Santorum in South Carolina… What’s clear from our poll: Debates matter, and there’s another one tonight… Also in the poll: The Bain dog doesn’t bite -- at least for now… But will Marianne Gingrich bite Newt?... How things have changed for the Gingrich camp in a month… And how they’ve remained the same for Team Romney… And breaking down the Obama campaign’s first TV ad.

*** A stop to Romney’s coronation? Just two days ago, it appeared Mitt Romney was well on his way to wrapping up the GOP presidential nomination by the end of the weekend, going 3-for-3 in the first three GOP contests -- something that’s never been done before by a non-incumbent Republican. But breaking news and brand-new polls out of South Carolina suggest that Romney’s coronation might have been premature. First, the breaking news: The Des Moines Register reports that after the certified totals from the Iowa caucuses, Rick Santorum ended up with a 34-vote advantage over Romney with eight precincts’ numbers missing (which will never be certified). The Iowa Republican Party and the Romney campaign are calling the certified results a tie, and NBC News will not declare a winner in the contest (due to the missing precincts). But make no mistake: Santorum came out ahead. Second, brand-new polls out of South Carolina -- including our new NBC/Marist survey -- show Gingrich gaining considerable ground on Romney in the Palmetto State. Now think about it: On Saturday night, it is POSSIBLE that instead of 3-and-0, Romney could be 1-and-2, with that one victory coming in his backyard of New Hampshire.

*** A thought exercise: You’ve got to wonder: Had the headlines coming out of Iowa on Jan. 4 been “Rick Santorum wins Iowa” instead of “Mitt Romney wins…,” what would have been the impact in New Hampshire? Would the race have been closer? Ironically, the change in outcome doesn’t help Santorum, whose campaign has noticeably run out of gas in the last few days -- despite that evangelical endorsement over the weekend. Instead, this news hurts Romney -- and by extension benefits Gingrich.

*** Debates matter: If there’s one lesson we’ve learned in this Republican presidential contest, it is this: The 16 debates -- and counting -- have mattered. A lot. And our new NBC/Marist poll of South Carolina provides even more evidence of that. Overall in the two-day survey (conducted Monday Jan. 16 and Tuesday Jan. 17), Romney gets the support of 34% of likely GOP primary voters, while Gingrich is at 24%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Santorum at 14%, and Perry at 4%. But the numbers are strikingly different before and after the debate on Monday, when Romney had an uneven performance and Gingrich had a strong one. On Monday, Romney led Gingrich by a whopping 15 points in the poll, 37%-22%. But on the Tuesday after the debate, that advantage narrowed to just five points, 31%-26%, putting Gingrich in striking distance. In particular, the most conservative parts of the GOP electorate (Tea Party supporters, “very conservative” voters, and evangelicals) broke toward Gingrich in the day after the debate. And guess what: Tonight, we have another debate, the 17^th of the cycle.

*** The Bain dog doesn’t bite -- at least for now: While Gingrich gained ground on Romney the day after Monday’s GOP debate, the former Massachusetts governor can take comfort with this finding from the poll: His past work at Bain Capital doesn’t seem to bother South Carolina Republicans. Per the survey, 61% of GOP primary voters (as well as 42% of all registered voters in the state) agree with the statement that investment firms like Bain help the U.S. economy, and they agree that while some companies fail or are restructured, others succeed and that’s how the free market works. By comparison, just a quarter of like GOP voters (and a third of all registered voters) agree with the statement that investment firms like Bain hurt the economy when they take over a company and lay off workers and reduce their pay and when they make money for the firm whether or not the company succeeds.

*** But will Marianne Gingrich bite Newt? And here’s another thing where Romney can take some comfort: Today’s political story -- as well as tonight’s debate -- is going to include a discussion about Gingrich’s second failed marriage. Matt Drudge yesterday revealed that ABC got an interview with ex-wife Marianne Gingrich, who had criticized the former House speaker in a 2010 Esquire interview. Last night, the Gingrich camp responded to the upcoming interview with a letter from Gingrich’s two daughters: “We will not say anything negative about our father’s ex-wife.  He has said before, privately and publicly, that he regrets any pain he may have caused in the past to people he loves. ABC News or other campaigns may want to talk about the past, just days before an important primary election.  But Newt is going to talk to the people of South Carolina about the future.” In an interview on “TODAY” this morning, Gingrich invoked his daughters and refused to say anything negative about Marianne. But do remember: In an interview with NBC’s Chuck Todd, Gingrich declared that he didn’t have a relationship with his second ex-wife.

*** How things change… : Given how the Gingrich campaign has responded so far -- with a quick statement from his two daughters -- it’s striking how much has changed in a month. And it hasn’t been just this story; it’s how the campaign has responded to the Romney camp in recent days. A month ago, heading into the Iowa contest, the Gingrich camp looked haphazard and unable to respond to the attacks hitting them. Now? They look much more sophisticated.

*** … and how they remain the same: And while things appeared to have changed for the Gingrich candidate, NBC’s Garrett Haake observes how similar things have been for Romney – and how history might be repeating itself. In early December, Haake explains, Herman Cain had just dropped out of the presidential race; Mitt Romney was trying to recover from a rough interview with Fox's Brett Baier; and Newt Gingrich's surge was being battled back by Romney surrogates. Now in the final days before the South Carolina primary, Jon Huntsman has just dropped out of the presidential race; Mitt Romney is trying to recover from a rough debate outing (moderated by Baier); and Newt Gingrich's (latest) surge is being battled back by Romney surrogates.

*** Obama campaign plays defense with first ad: So President Obama’s campaign is up with its first TV ad of the cycle -- at a buy of $1.3 million and counting, per Smart Media Group Delta -- and it turns out to be a response to a $6 million blitz by the Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity that hits Obama on Solyndra. It’s a very defensive ad, something that the RNC made clear to reporters last night. The Obama camp tells First Read that the objective of their response to make clear that the attack ad is funded by oil executives -- i.e., the Koch brothers -- who want to keep America running on oil, not clean energy. And it believes such a response makes the attack less credible to viewers. A few points on this Obama ad. One, it’s clear that the Solyndra ad was having an effect. Two, this just demonstrates again how important outside groups will be to this campaign. And three, this is just more evidence that 2012 is going to be a negative campaign – full of attacks and responses..

***On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Two days before Saturday’s primary, all the candidates remain in South Carolina: Gingrich stumps in Bluffton, Beaufort, and Walterboro… Romney visits Charleston… Santorum rallies in Charleston… And all candidates (Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum) will be in North Charleston for the CNN debate, which begins at 8:00 pm ET. 

Countdown to South Carolina primary: 2 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 12 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 16 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 47 days
Countdown to Election Day: 292 days

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