BACHMANN: “The second round of the Cuban Missile Crisis could be coming - at least in Michele Bachmann's world,” the New York Daily News writes. She said, "There's reports that have come out that Cuba has been working with another terrorist organization called Hezbollah. And Hezbollah is looking at wanting to be part of missile sites in Iran and, of course, when you are 90 miles offshore from Florida, you don't want to entertain the prospect of hosting bases or sites where Hezbollah could have training camps or perhaps have missile sites or weapons sites in Cuba. This would be foolish."

The Wall Street Journal reports on Bachmann’s effort to reignite her campaign in Cedar Rapids.  But the newspaper finds supporters expressing doubt.  One supporter says: "I just don't think she's debated very well,” and: "she seems to lack experience and real poise."

CAIN: The former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Tweeted that he will be on The Tonight Show Friday.

CHRISTIE: “He hasn’t thrown his hat into the ring, but New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie certainly sounded presidential last night -- delivering an uplifting speech praising America as an ‘exceptional’ country while making a stirring call for national unity,” the New York Post writes. Christie talked a lot about unity, chided Congress and labeled President Obama a “bystander.” And he claimed, “Now, seven years later, President Obama prepares to divide our nation to achieve re-election.”

(So, according to Christie, it’s President Obama who has been unwilling to compromise?)

On whether he’d run, “Christie urged a capacity audience of about 900 to look at the website Politico, which had pieced together a long string of video clips in which he says he's not a candidate for the White House. ‘Those are the answers,’ he told the crowd. Christie later said he was flattered by suggestions he should run in 2012, but added, ‘that reason has to reside inside me.’”

The L.A. Times says Christie’s speech sent a “mixed message,” particularly since he took a shot at Rick Perry for his stance on letting children of illegal immigrants pay in-state tuition. “Responding to a question from the audience, Christie said he opposed laws that allowed the children of illegal immigrants to pay lower in-state tuition at public colleges. Perry, who has taken heat from rivals for approving such a law in Texas, has said critics of the policy have no heart,” the Times writes. Christie said, "From my perspective, that is not a heartless position. That is a common-sense position."

The Star Ledger: “[W]hen asked later whether he was running for president his answer was artful, not direct — and not what many of the crowd of Republican faithful seemed to want to hear. They groaned at his response. He never said, ‘Yes I'm running,’ and he never said, ‘No I'm not.’”

John Podhoretz also thinks Christie left the door open a crack in his speech last night. “[H]e never actually said no last night,” he writes in the New York Post. “And judging from his brilliant performance, he shouldn’t.”

Meanwhile, Christie’s approval rating got a bounce in the latest FDU PublicMind survey. He stands at 54%-36% now, up from 44%-44% in May.

JOHNSON: Everybody gets a SuperPAC! “A former member of Gary Johnson's presidential campaign staff has created a pro-Johnson super PAC,” The Hill writes. “Kelly Casaday filed the Freedom and Liberty political action committee’s paperwork Monday evening with the Federal Election Commission.”

PERRY: Politico’s Martin: “Even as some of his supporters grow anxious, the Texas governor’s top aides insist they have no plans for real or even symbolic changes to their campaign. The only pivot they’ll make, they say, is to become more aggressive with Mitt Romney.”

His campaign is downplaying fundraising expectations. Spokesman Mark Miner told the Boston Globe: “Mitt Romney’s fund-raising machine has been in place for almost six years and we have been in this race for only six weeks. Our goal is to have the necessary resources to run a credible campaign.”

“Rick Perry’s Republican opponents have put chinks in the Texas governor’s conservative armor, turning the right’s would-be white knight into a punching bag on controversial issues,” The Hill writes, adding, “Grassroots activists who coalesced behind Perry at the start of his candidacy have begun to express concern not merely about the Texan’s faltering debate performances but also his heterodox positions on some of those issues.”

“[W]hile [Rick] Perry may not be scoring the most points [at debates], he has lapped the field on one dimension: using clichés. A Smart Politics review of the last three Republican presidential debates finds that Rick Perry has incorporated more clichés into his answers than any other candidate. In fact, the Texas governor has tallied nearly twice as many clichés as the entire rest of the field combined.”

ROMNEY: “Mitt Romney’s campaign aides estimate that they will raise much less this fund-raising quarter than his $18.2 million haul in the previous three months,” the Boston Globe reports. “Aides contend that Romney’s top rival —Texas Governor Rick Perry — will raise more than he will, even though Perry has been in the race for only six weeks.” Spokeswoman Andrea Saul: “We are going to raise considerably less than what we did in our first reporting period, but we will still meet our finance goals for this quarter. “Rick Perry is a brand new candidate raising primary and general election dollars, and as the governor of a large state and former [Republican Governors Association] chair we suspect he will lead the Republican field in fund-raising for this quarter.”

FLORIDA: Per CNN’s Peter Hamby, “Florida is now expected to hold its presidential primary on the last day in January 2012, a move likely to throw the carefully arranged Republican nominating calendar into disarray and jumpstart the nominating process a month earlier than party leaders had hoped. Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon told CNN on Tuesday that a state commission exploring potential primary dates is likely to choose January 31 to hold the nominating contest.”

SOUTH CAROLINA: “South Carolina county leaders are in revolt and threatening legal action, saying the state plans to leave them to pick up part of the tab for their first-in-the-South presidential primary,” the AP reports. “And the state's county association said Monday that courts need to decide whether counties or the state even have the legal authority to conduct the primary Republicans brag has been a must-win for every GOP hopeful since 1980 who has claimed the nomination.”

And just wow: AP: “South Carolina's governor is ordering state workers to cheerfully answer phones with the phrase ‘It's a great day in South Carolina.’ Republican Nikki Haley issued the order at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, saying the phrase will put workers in a better mood and remind them that they work for the public. She also says the public will feel better, too.” 

Power DC lobbyists will be attending a fundraiser for Rick Perry tonight. But how many will turn out?
 
That is the key question today when the Texas governor flies to town for what is being touted as his "Washington kickoff"-- two gala fundraisers at the Willard Hotel and at the private home of local auto magnate Mandell Ourisman.

The Willard Hotel event is being billed as a lobbyists' extravaganza: a copy of the invite obtained by NBC News lists a 28 member host committee -- at least 20 of whom are K Street lobbyists, including veteran big money GOP fundraisers as Dirk Van Dongen (president of the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors), Marc Lampkin (a principal at Quinn-Gillespie who represents, among many others, the Blackstone Group and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway), Roy Coffee (a former aide to President George W. Bush who represents Texas banking interests) and others with bulging client lists that include Wall Street equity funds, insurance companies, big pharmaceutical firms and many others.

Each member of the host committee, according to the invite, is committed to raising $10,000 -- so with full participation, Perry should net $280,000 and another $120,000 at the later event at the Ourisman home.

But a DC lobbying source tells NBC the host committee remains a list in flux because organizers have had trouble nailing down commitments from other top lobbyists they had hoped to include. The problem reflects new doubts about Perry, both because of his rough debate performance last week and questions about whether he will have the staying power to make it through the primary gauntlet, says the DC lobbyist who has been courted by organizers of the event.

The cash collected tonight will be a crucial test, because it comes just days before the Sept. 30 quarterly filing deadline. When the final tallies are reported, Perry is widely viewed as needing an impressive number -- at least $15 million or so -- to maintain his status as the GOP front-runner.

By msnbc.com's Michael O'Brien

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's speech tonight at the Reagan Library will be closely scrutinized for any sign that the brash GOP icon has changed his mind, and will run for president.

All signs point to Christie reaffirming his earlier commitment to stay out of the race for the 2012 GOP nomination -- the governor's brother said Tuesday that he will not run -- but his declaration may well force some top-dollar Republican donors to finally move off the sidelines, and commit to a candidate currently in the race.

The New York Times profiled a series of deep-pocketed Republicans, who have helped fuel the "Draft Christie" movement, which has persisted for months despite the first-term governor's insistence that he's not seeking national office. Home Depot founder Kenneth Langone is widely identified as the impetus behind that movement, but he and a series of other Christie supporters might be forced to reconsider their options if the Garden State governor ultimately decides not to run.

"There are a lot of guys with a Romney bumper sticker on their desk, but are waiting to put it on their car," said one Republican tied into the party's fundraising circuit, who declined to speak on the record so as to not alienate donors.

Indeed, there's already a bit of overlap. One potential Christie backer named in the Times story, the investment guru Charles Schwab, sent Romney a $2,500 donation in late June. The other potential Christie backers named in the story have otherwise stayed out of the presidential race, though they have already been active in contributing to GOP House and Senate campaigns.

That leaves Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the two frontrunning candidates for the GOP nomination, battling for an edge in the contest for financial support. Both men are seeking not only an advantage in their campaign warchests, but also in support from high-profile donors, whose backing would signal that the smart money is leaning toward one campaign or another. Moreover, those top donors could also help "bundle" money for the primary campaigns, and help multiply the fundraising haul for Romney or Perry.

"There's no question, there's money on the sidelines right now, and I wouldn't say it's on the sidelines for any particular candidate," said another Republican consultant, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly about the race.

"I think it's only natural, because people like to be with a winner, and they're all waiting to see because, to be honest, nobody's knocked anybody's doors off," the consultant added. "The debates have raised some doubt about Perry, but it's not like anything's not recoverable. But if you're looking at Romney, you're asking, 'Why hasn't this guy locked it up yet?'"

Political observers will have a better sense of just how much money has come off the sidelines in the middle of the next month. Each presidential campaign is required to report their fundraising hauls and itemized contributions and expenditures to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by Oct. 14. Those reports cover the campaigns' fundraising activities between the beginning of July and the end of this month. Those filings will also include new data about which mega-donors have contributed to candidates in the past three months.

Those reports themselves are a metric for the media and potential donors who are looking to gauge the strength of a given campaign. And Romney and Perry's totals could be tempered by donors who have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Those donors are generally seen as the same crowd that had pined throughout 2011 for new candidacies -- from, for instance, Sen. John Thune (R-SD), Govs. Haley Barbour (R-MS) and Mitch Daniels (R-IN), or Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) -- that never came to fruition.

Perry's campaign has sought to keep expectations low, setting a $10 million bar for itself to clear in a shortened third quarter (since Perry didn't become a candidate until early August). Romney, meanwhile, is looking to eclipse a $18 million haul for the second quarter, a total that far surpassed any other candidate, but which didn't quite meet the high expectations that had been set for his long-planned campaign.

Christie's potential fundraising base lies primarily in the New York Metro area, which includes a number of financial services professionals. If Christie declines to run, and donors are forced to choose, those supporters may flock to Romney, who's mined his business background to build his campaign war chest. But Republicans also caution that Romney and Perry have streams of revenue available to them beyond heavyweight donors who have declined to back a candidate so far. Romney is independently wealthy and could self-finance (though he's said he isn't interested in doing that), and has access to a network of wealthy Mormon business owners. Perry, meanwhile, has a deep fundraising network cultivated during years of statewide races in Texas. Perry’s brief stint as Republican Governors Association chairman, from which he stepped down to run for president, also helped expose him to a national fundraising network.

Chris Christie's brother says the New Jersey governor is still not running for president -- despite increased calls for him to enter the race and former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean lending credence to the notion that he's considering a bid.

"I'm sure that he's not going to run," said Chris Christie's brother Todd, a prominent GOP fundraiser, the (Newark, N.J.) Star-Ledger reports. "If he's lying to me, I'll be as stunned as I've ever been in my life."

Chris Christie delivers a speech tonight at the Reagan Library in California and has said repeatedly he would not run.

A GOP leadership aide tells NBC News that the House will aim Thursday to pass the government funding measure that recently passed the Senate to keep the government running for a week.

Leadership will try to pass it via "Unanimous Consent" while this House is in a pro forma session. The House is otherwise off this week, and business is not ordinarily conducted during pro forma sessions. “It is held usually to satisfy the constitutional obligation that neither chamber can adjourn for more than three days without the consent of the other,” according to the Senate Web site.)

As NBC’s Frank Thorp explains, Unanimous Consent means that a bill passes because both Speaker Boehner and Minority Leader Pelosi agree to pass it, and there are no objections from any members.  There will be no vote, just an announcement of           unanimous consent, and a call for any objections.  If there are none, then it passes."

The plan is then for the entire House to vote on Tuesday, Oct. 4 on a government spending bill that would last until Nov. 18th. This bill also has funds for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, to replenish its account.

The vote Oct. 4 of the full House will allow conservative members of the House GOP to state their objections to what they see as too much money given to fund the government.

The bill has the support of House Democrats, and likely a majority of House Republicans, so it is expected to pass easily.

That Tea Party thing
For the week-long spending bill to pass by Unanimous Consent on Thursday, not a single member of the 435-member House can object. If one member wanted to they could show up in the House chamber, object and risk a shutdown.

No one has indicated they will do this -- and doing so could cost them politically, lost committee positions and media scrutiny, but this House does not do anything easily.

"I don't have a crystal ball,” a senior GOP aide tells NBC News about the possibility of a member holding up the measure, “but it would be an absolute shock and a disappointing one at that.”

MANCHESTER, NH -- President Obama's former senior adviser and campaign strategist David Axelrod acknowledged this morning that the 2012 presidential election will be an uphill battle for the incumbent president facing a struggling economy and high unemployment.

"This is going to be a titanic struggle," Axelrod told about 200 people at a Politics & Eggs breakfast at New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College. "But I firmly believe we are on the right side of the struggle."

"In 2008, we had the wind at our backs," Axelrod admitted. "Now, we don't have the wind at our back. We have the wind in our faces, because the American people have the wind in their faces."

Axelrod blamed Republicans lawmakers in Washington for taking partisan lines and preventing Obama from accomplishing major initiatives.

"We honestly thought when we got to Washington, we'd get some cooperation from folks across the aisle," he said.

He then called the current field of GOP presidential candidates “the most ideological, partisan group of Republicans in my lifetime."

Axelrod specifically highlighted the Republican presidential debate last week, when a handful of audience members booed a gay soldier from Iraq after he posed a question about the repeal of the military’s "Don't Ask Don't Tell" policy.

“Not one person on that platform, not one candidate was willing to say, ‘Don’t do that. It’s inappropriate to boo someone who’s risking his life for our country, who’s serving our country honorably.'"

As for Obama's chances against current Republican front-runners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, Axelrod forecasted a "contest between economic visions and values."

MANCHESTER, NH -- This morning, GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman confirmed what reporters on the campaign trail in New Hampshire have been seeing for weeks.

"We are going to focus singularly on New Hampshire," the former Utah governor said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." This comes after Huntsman recently brought aboard a new state director, transferred staff from Florida to New Hampshire, upped his town hall appearances, and injected his own $500,000 to keep the operation afloat.

However, a one-state strategy could prove to be a problem for the campaign. The good news for Huntsman: His poll numbers are up in the Granite State, hitting 10% in last week's Suffolk/7News for a third-place finish ahead of Rick Perry. He said last week he is pleased with the momentum.

The bad news: Huntsman might have a national problem on his hands. To appear in the televised debates -- specifically CNN's debate next month -- Huntsman must poll at 2% to meet the minimum requirement. Right now, he is polling at 1%. So he has 20 days to boost his numbers nationally. This could require something of a national strategy, precisely the opposite of what the campaign has been doing as they roll back to focus on New Hampshire. The campaign would not comment on the matter.

Other news in the Huntsman world: Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore expressed major support for the former ambassador to China on CNN this week, calling him "reasonable."

"There's only who has sanity operating inside of him and that's Jon Huntsman," Moore told CNN's Piers Morgan. "If the Republican party and Tea Party were smart, they would run somebody who would not only get the Republican vote but also a big chunk of the independents and maybe some of the Democrats. But they're not... They're on the Tea-tanic."

The Huntsman campaign would not comment on the Moore endorsement.

NEW YORK -- After he predicted his campaign is “on the verge of an explosion of interest” in an appearance on “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart,” Texas Congressman Ron Paul drew chants and cheers from the crowd of 1,862 supporters (according to the campaign) that packed Webster Hall’s Grand Ballroom Monday night.

In both events, the presidential hopeful highlighted the consistency of his message.

“So much has changed in the last four years.” Paul told the predominantly 20- to 40-year-old crowd at the venue that's also hosted events for Madonna and Mick Jagger. “The country has changed, but I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but my message hasn’t changed.”

And in his earlier "Daily Show" appearance, host Jon Stewart also joked with Paul that it may be his steadfast message that is holding him back. “It seems like what gets a lot of attention is saying one thing a few years ago and then changing your position. Have you thought about… flip-flopping?” Stewart asked Paul.

The 2012 cycle marks Rep. Paul’s third run for the White House, but central points of his platform have remained the same including economic and personal liberty. He placed fifth in the recent Florida Straw Poll, and has struggled to gain recognition as a viable option from party establishment and some in the media.

Still, Stewart noted, “Your 15% or 12% or 10% will yell harder than Romney’s 30%” -- and yell they did from the floor and the balcony at Webster Hall. Organizers moved the event to the larger Grand Ballroom less than 24 hours ahead of Paul’s remarks when ticket demand exceeded the capacity of the previously booked venue. 

Lisa Favara, 32, who attended the event at Webster Hall, told NBC News the 76-year-old Congressman is her choice because “the other Republican candidates have co-opted his message. In 2008, he was saying the same things, and in 2012 they have come around to his message.”

The Christie buzz increases -- with his speech tonight at  the  Reagan Library and with Tom Kean saying Christie’s giving “a lot” of thought to jumping in… This continued buzz says as much about Perry and Romney as it does about Christie… A reality check on the GOP horserace: At this point in ’07, Giuliani and Thompson were leading the national field… Congress averts a government shutdown -- again… Ryan’s dig at the Super Committee… Denver for Obama, three years later… Romney’s meeting with Trump yesterday was hardly a profile in courage… And Perry hits fundraisers in Baltimore and DC, while Paul’s in Iowa and Santorum’s in South Carolina. 

AP

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaking during a Town Hall in June 2011.

***  The Christie buzz increases : Even though you have to take Chris Christie at his word that he isn’t running for president, the presidential buzz surrounding him is only increasing. Tonight, the New Jersey governor delivers a speech at the Reagan Library at 9:00 pm ET. The title of the speech is buzzworthy, too: “Real American Exceptionalism.” Per Christie’s office, the governor’s remarks will use Reagan's “transformative leadership to depict how the United States’ role and significance in the world is defined by who we are at home.” And then comes the quote from former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean (R) that Christie is “very seriously” considering getting into the presidential contest. “It’s real,” Kean told  National Review. “He’s giving it a lot of thought. I think the odds are a lot better now than they were a couple weeks ago.” Either Christie is having fun with all of this speculation, or something is afoot. The former is the more likely situation, but Christie probably needs to give one more unequivocal “no” to stop the speculation -- especially after Kean’s comments. He can EASILY stop this tonight, if he wants to; he’ll have a large forum to do it.

*** Doubts about Perry and Romney: So why are we in this position where some Republicans are still pining for Christie -- or another GOPer -- to get into the race? Part of it is due to Rick Perry’s shaky debate performances over the past couple of weeks. But much of it can be traced to Republican doubts about Mitt Romney. Indeed, this desire for Christie (or Jeb Bush or Mitch Daniels, etc.) existed WELL BEFORE Perry got into the race. And while Romney’s campaign has to feel better today than it did last month, it’s still got to be frustrating to them that’s he’s unable to close the sale with these fence-sitter Republicans. What’s the rub? For conservatives, it’s a lack of trust about ideology. For the pragmatic donor types, it’s concern that he won’t connect. And for others, it’s about his history of tailoring a message to the audience of the moment (see Massachusetts Senate ’94, Massachusetts Gov ’02 and then President ’07). Of course, John McCain had some of these same issues in 2007, which brings us to…

*** A reality check on the GOP horserace: And here’s a reality check about where we are in the GOP nominating contest: At this point in 2007, Rudy Giuliani was leading the Republican field in our national NBC/WSJ poll at 30%, followed by Fred Thompson at 23%, the eventual winner John McCain at 15%, and Romney at 10%. And at this point in the 2007 Democratic race, Hillary Clinton was at 44%, followed by eventual winner Barack Obama at 23%, and John Edwards at 16%.

AP

Senate Democrats meet with reporters following the vote on a short term funding bill on Capitol Hill, Monday, Sept. 26, 2011.

*** Shutdown averted: Well, Congress appears to have avoided a shutdown -- again. But it wasn’t easy, even though it should have been since the subject was the usually non-partisan issue of disaster relief. The Washington Post: “After days of brinkmanship reminiscent of the budget battles that have consumed Washington this year, key senators clinched a compromise that would provide less money for disaster relief than Democrats sought but would also strip away spending cuts that Republicans demanded. The pact, which the Senate approved 79 to 12 and the House is expected to ratify next week, is expected to keep federal agencies open until Nov. 18.”

*** Ryan’s dig at the Super Committee: Don’t miss House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s dig at the “Super Committee.” At yesterday’s House GOP town hall at Facebook, Paul said, “One of the reasons I didn't want to go on the Select Committee is because the budget process is just broken. The fact that we have a Select Committee is testament to the fact that Congress does not budget our money at all.” He added, “Twelve people in Congress are not going to cut a backroom deal that is going to fix all of the country's fiscal problems, nor should they try. We ought to have to real government that works.” Paul Ryan is a bit of a walking conundrum sometimes: He correctly identifies problems (like the budget process is broken), but then whenever there’s a solution proposed that Ryan’s not in control of, he’s more likely to find problems with those solutions (like Bowles-Simpson). Is he simply more polite in saying “my way or the highway”?

*** Denver, three years later: President Obama remains out in the West, where he will once again promote his jobs bill -- this time in Denver, CO at 4:15 pm ET. The Denver Post previewing Obama's remarks: “President Barack Obama this afternoon will push his $447 billion jobs bill from an asphalt parking lot facing a grim stretch of South Federal Boulevard where locals say only the most recession-proof franchises flourish. The lot — behind Abraham Lincoln High School, a few miles south of Sports Authority Field at Mile High — will be devoid of the enthusiasm, pomp and 84,000 supporters at the stadium that helped propel Obama to the Democratic nomination in August 2008.”

*** Hardly a profile in courage by Team Romney: Yesterday, Mitt Romney agreed to meet with Donald Trump (after Rick Perry’s earlier meeting with the real-estate tycoon). The campaign stationed an aide an entrance of Trump Tower to assure the assembled press corps -- which had gathered there to do their jobs -- that Romney was on his way. And then as the press corps waited for Romney an hour after the scheduled meeting time, the aide flagged down a cab, told the press that the meeting had ended, apologized, and left, almost like the ending to a bad sitcom episode. So let’s get this straight: Romney and his team were willing to meet with Trump, but then deceive the press corps about the meeting? Why set up the meeting if Romney was fearful of having any photos taken of it? An incident like this is small, but it goes to a larger issue Romney has to deal with: He’s trying to have something both ways. In this case, he wanted to meet with Trump in an attempt to quiet the criticism (remember Trump’s demeaning of Romney’s business experience?) But because he didn’t want to offend some swing voters or (swing donors?) who don’t like Trump or his style, he wanted to duck the photo-op? Hardly a profile in courage by a candidate who has been trying to project strength on the campaign trail, in press releases, and at the debate podium.

*** On the 2012 trail: Perry hits fundraisers in Baltimore and DC… Paul campaigns in Iowa… Santorum is in South Carolina, while Gingrich is in Pennsylvania… And Roemer stumps in New Hampshire.

*** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Former Bush and McCain campaign strategist Mark McKinnon on the GOP’s 2012 field… NBC’s Kristen Welker and Variety’s Ted Johnson on President Obama’s Hollywood fundraisers… NBC’s Pete Williams on the possibility of the Supreme Court ruling on the health care law soon… NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell on the deal to keep the government funded for a while… And more 2012 news with the AP’s Kasie Hunt, the Washington Post’s Perry Bacon and the New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny.

*** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: As part of NBC’s “Education Nation,” Andrea Mitchell interviews Education Secretary Arne Duncan, Vicki Phillips of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and NFL Hall of Famer Franco Harris, who chairs Pittsburgh Promise.

Countdown to Election Day 2011: 42 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 132 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up, and it’s likely that the contest takes place earlier.

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

“The Obama administration has decided not to ask a federal appeals court in Atlanta for further review of a ruling striking down the centerpiece of President Obama’s health-care overhaul,” AP writes. “The decision makes it more likely that the Supreme Court will hear a case on the issue in its term starting next month, and deliver a verdict in the midst of the 2012 presidential-election campaign.”

“A bizarre Bible-thumping heckler called President Obama ‘the Antichrist’ as the Secret Service dragged him out of a presidential fund-raiser Monday,” the New York Daily News writes of Obama’s fundraiser in Los Angeles.

A Roanoke College poll shows Mitt Romney beating the president 45%-37% in Virginia; Rick Perry leads by a slimmer 42%-40% margin. Obama has a 39%-54% approval rating in the state, according to the poll. Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) and Sen. Mark Warner (D) have an identical 67% approval rating.

Obama’s in Denver today, pitching his jobs plan, and Politico takes a look at his fortunes in the state. It quotes former Democratic governor Bill Ritter as saying, “A repeat of 2008 is very unlikely… I’d say he’s looking at a high-wire act here.” (That’s despite the 2010 victory by Sen. Michael Bennet -- at perhaps the peak of the Tea Party enthusiasm.)

The Wall Street Journal’s Seib writes, “Amid those dark political clouds overhead right now, President Barack Obama can console himself with this silver lining: The electoral map remains stacked in favor of him and his Democrats. In a close presidential election—and there is every reason to believe that 2012's will be—that is an important and often overlooked fundamental. It will affect the strategic decisions both parties make as the campaign unfolds. Indeed, the shape of the electoral map already appears to be driving some moves this year, and offers signposts indicating which states will be pivotal next year.”

 “The Senate reached a bipartisan spending agreement yesterday to avert a government shutdown, sidestepping a bitter impasse over disaster financing after federal authorities said they could most likely squeak though the rest of this week with the $144 million they have on hand,” the  Boston Globe writes. “After blocking one Democratic proposal, the Senate voted, 79 to 12, to approve a straightforward seven-week extension of funding for government agencies that were due to run out of money Friday, simultaneously replenishing accounts at the Federal Emergency Management Agency that this summer’s string of natural disasters nearly exhausted.”

The New York Times: “While the Senate actions appeared to head off a government shutdown for a second time this year, the embarrassing fight over disaster aid pulled into sharp relief both the enduring, sinewy power of the Tea Party — and its deep impact on fiscal policy — and Democrats’ revived pugnacity as they press President Obama’s jobs plan through next year’s elections.”

The Hill: “Under the agreement, the House would have to approve that stopgap measure by unanimous consent later this week in a pro forma session. This would give the lower chamber enough time to return from Congress's weeklong recess to consider the six-week measure.”

“Beginning to climb out of the hole they dug for themselves, House and Senate leaders agreed Monday night to take a series of steps intended to keep the government funded past Friday and defuse what’s become a partisan, even institutional fight over budgeting for disaster aid,” Politico’s Rogers adds.

The Wall Street Journal on Republican House leaders Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, and Paul Ryan at Facebook HQ yesterday: “Three top Republican lawmakers used an appearance at the social media giant Facebook on Monday to push for eliminating regulations that hinder the private sector.”

“It’s been the recurring theme in the race for the GOP presidential nomination: A candidate enters with a splash, then quickly fizzles, leaving Republicans clamoring for a new white knight to hurtle them into the White House,” The Hill writes. It also reprises this editorial from the (Newark) Star-Ledger’s Kevin Manahan written a week after Perry declared: “Just wait until the country discovers that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is an empty pair of alligator boots with a grade-school understanding of economics who wants to appoint the Holy Spirit as head of Homeland Security. The Batphone on Christie’s desk will start blinking again.”

Perry still leads in a CNN poll 28%-21% over Romney among Republicans, but Romney fares better against Obama than Perry. He trails Obama 48%-47%, but Obama beats Perry by 5. (Via GOP 12.)

CAIN: Comedian Dennis Miller endorsed Cain.

CHRISTIE: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie -- besieged by Republican insiders to enter the presidential race since Rick Perry’s GOP debate meltdown -- takes the national stage tonight as feature speaker at the presidential library of party icon Ronald Reagan,” the New York Post writes. “Christie is on a four-day political trip that will take him to California, Missouri and Louisiana and that aides say was scheduled well in advance of the latest push to get him to run for the White House.”

HUNTSMAN: “Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) is celebrating a pair of recent polls showing him in double digits among New Hampshire voters as a sign that he is no longer a ‘margin-of-error candidate,’” The Hill writes.

PAUL: NBC’s Betsy Korona reports: After predicting his campaign is “on the verge of an explosion” on “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart,” Rep. Ron Paul drew chants and cheers from the crowd of 1,862 supporters (according to the campaign) that packed Webster Hall’s Grand Ballroom Monday night. (First Read will have more on that appearance later this morning…)

PERRY: “A video released by the Perry campaign yesterday focuses on Romney’s initial claim that health insurance changes in Massachusetts would ensure that everyone gets portable, affordable health coverage,” the Boston Globe writes. “‘We can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country, and it can be done without letting government take over health care,’ Romney wrote in the hardcover, published in 2010. In a version released in 2011, Romney deleted the phrase, ‘We can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country.’”

The New York Post describes Rick Perry’s attacks on Romney’s health-care plan yesterday as him “still smarting from a poor debate performance last week.”

Perry’s doing damage control in Iowa and South Carolina with tele-town halls, GOP 12 reports.

“Rick Perry’s candidacy may be on the rocks after his shaky debate and straw-poll defeat in Florida. But in Nevada, the state that hopes to hold the third GOP primary contest of 2012, he’s already accomplished a major feat,” Politico writes. “Perry may have singlehandedly saved the Nevada caucuses. Without even setting foot there, the Texas governor has racked up Nevada’s biggest endorsement – popular Gov. Brian Sandoval – and with it a team of some of the state’s top political operatives. Already, one poll has shown him beating Mitt Romney in the state where the former Massachusetts governor was supposed to be a lock.”

ROMNEY: The New York Daily News called Donald Trump’s comments on his meeting with Romney “faint praise.” Trump said, "It was a nice meeting. We had a good time."

ARIZONA:  “Former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens formally announced his Senate campaign this morning in a video posted to his campaign website,” Roll Call writes.

COLORADO: Political Wire writes, “Colorado's decision ‘to bump forward the date of its caucuses doesn't immediately change anything for Iowa, but party officials here say they will, if necessary, move Iowa's date forward to preserve its first-in-the-nation status,’ the Des Moines Register reports.” Colorado moved up its date to Feb. 7, a day after the currently scheduled Feb. 6 Iowa contest.

OHIO: The Boston Globe profiles Republican Josh Mandel and Republicans’ chances at taking over the Senate: “In one of the nation’s political bellwethers, the face of Republican aspirations to recapture the Senate is youthful, if not boyish. Josh Mandel, the 33-year-old state treasurer of Ohio, looks more like a candidate for class president than Congress. But despite a 15-point disadvantage in the polls, Mandel — a two-tour Marine veteran of the Iraq War — is considered by political analysts to be an up-and-coming threat to liberal Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown.”

VIRGINIA: George Allen (R) leads Tim Kaine (D) 42%-39% in a new Roanoke College poll.

By NBC's Pete Williams

A legal move Monday by the Obama administration greatly increases the odds that the US Supreme Court will take up the contentious issue of the new health care law during the court term that starts next week. 

And if it does, that would mean a ruling from the Supreme Court by next spring -- as the presidential campaign is well underway.

The Justice Department had to decide what to do about the highest profile decision yet on the constitutionality of the law's requirement that virtually all Americans buy health insurance.  Acting in a lawsuit filed by 26 states, a three-judge panel of the federal appeals court in Atlanta ruled last month that Congress went too far in passing the law.

The government could have asked the full Atlanta appeals court to re-hear the case, which would have meant a further delay. But today, the Justice Department told the appeals court it will not seek that re-hearing.  That means the Obama administration plans to appeal to the US Supreme Court directly.  Most legal experts agree that the Supreme Court would almost certainly grant that request, even though other appeals courts are still hearing legal challenges to the health care law.

CEDAR RAPIDS, IA -- Speaking to reporters this afternoon, presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann brushed aside her last-place finish in the Florida Straw Poll. And in a speech before that, she urged voters to consider her ahead of the race's two front-runners, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney.

“We can’t settle. We have to have a candidate who has it all,” Bachmann repeatedly said during her speech before a few dozen supporters who gathered at the Best Western Longbranch ballroom. The rhetoric, which appears to reference opponents Perry and Romney, was first used last week when the Minnesota Congresswoman was speaking at GOP events in the Sunshine State.

Asked by NBC to comment on the results of the straw poll -- in which she received just 1.5% of the vote out of eight candidates -- Bachmann said she made a decision to focus instead on last month's Ames Straw Poll, which she won. “We put our effort and our money and our time here in Iowa in the straw poll because this straw poll in Iowa was crucial."

Bachmann also said that she permitted her supporters to vote for other candidates. “We had let it be known early on, and we released our supporters in Florida because there are straw polls all across the country right now,” Bachmann added. “We told all of our supporters in Florida that they were free to vote for anyone else that we wanted because we weren't participating.”

But Bachmann has only spent nine days in Florida since she got into the 2012 race, and Florida GOP officials say she does not have a big ground operation in the state.

“The fact that I don't hear from the campaign means that they don't have any organized staffing from a campaign staff perspective,” Sarasota County GOP Chair Joe Gruters said. "The path to victory is even harder than it was a week ago, as a result of the Tea Party voters in Florida getting behind Herman Cain. But she's still in contention."

The statement released by the Bachmann campaign following her straw poll finish last weekend makes no reference to “releasing” delegates. Instead, the statement focuses on her win in Ames on Aug. 13.

The statement: "Florida is an important state in the presidential race, but we chose not to participate in the P5 Poll which is open to select delegates. We got into the presidential race late and dedicated our resources to the Iowa straw poll which is open to all Iowans with a valid ID; Michele won the Iowa poll with less time and money than the other candidates in the race."

Bachmann told reporters today she's happy where her campaign is now despite losing in Florida.

“We're positioned perfectly,” she said.

Last week, Mitt Romney said something that observers (and even supporters) of his 2008 presidential campaign would have found shocking four years ago: He's the candidate who doesn't change his positions, while his opponents are flip-floppers.

The American people "can tell when people are being phony and are pandering to an audience, and you’ll see that in politics. You’re not going to see that in my campaign," said Romney, who was constantly accused of being a flip-flopper (on issues like abortion) in 2007-2008.

The reaction among rival Republican campaigns, Democratic opposition researchers, and some in the news media: a collective yawn.

On Monday, Romney's campaign hit Rick Perry with this press release: "Rick Perry And Barack Obama The Same On Illegal Immigration" -- even though Romney appeared to support comprehensive immigration reform in a 2006 article, and even though he once used a landscaping company that employed illegal immigrants.

The pushback from Team Perry: non-existent.

And at last week's GOP debate, Romney channeled his inner Obi-Wan Kenobi to sidestep a question on his Massachusetts' health-care, which shares many similarities to President Obama's federal health-care law. His message: These aren't the droids you're looking for.

"If I'm president of the United States, on my first day in office, I will issue an executive order which directs the secretary of Health and Human Services to provide a waiver from ObamaCare to all 50 states. That law is bad; it's unconstitutional; it shall not stand."

In other words, pay no attention to the similarities between "RomneyCare" and "ObamaCare." 

Indeed, for someone who still probably stands a 50%-50% chance of being the Republican Party's presidential nominee, Mitt Romney had it relatively easy so far.

One reason why is that he's run for president before -- and thus doesn't feel as "new" as the Michele Bachmanns and Rick Perrys. "There are benefits to having been a candidate previously," said one Republican strategist who is neutral in the GOP presidential race. "You have already been scrutinized."

Another reason is that Romney is a much better candidate than he was four years ago. "He has gotten a lot better," the strategist adds. "Better at being able to absorb and deflect" -- like he did with the health-care question in last week's debate.

A final reason has been the relatively late start to the GOP race, at least compared with 2008. June and July marked the rise of Bachmann's candidacy, while August and September have marked the rise of Perry's campaign. Hence the opportunity for Romney to stay out of the spotlight during much of the summer.

But that won't last forever, especially after Perry's recent debate struggles.

Consider this fertile ground for Perry and his other GOP rivals:
-- Just six years ago, Romney supported abortion rights;
-- in 1994, he sent a letter saying he'd be a stronger advocate for gay rights than Ted Kennedy;
-- according to a 2006 article, he supported a path to citizenship for law-abiding illegal immigrants, and the Boston Globe reported that he used a landscaping company than employed illegal immigrants;
-- and in 2007, he said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that the Massachusetts health-care law should be a model for other states.

Team Romney knows things will only get more difficult. "Never, not even for a second, has there been an assumption that it would be easy," Romney adviser Kevin Madden tells First Read. "This will be a hard-fought campaign. There will be attacks from opponents. The difference between a winning campaign and a losing one is whether you recognize that and whether you're prepared. This campaign is prepared."

NEW YORK-- While members of the New York and political press corps clogged the sidewalk below, waiting for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to arrive at Trump Tower's 56th Street entrance in midtown Manhattan, Romney was already meeting privately with Donald Trump inside.
 
Romney's campaign -- which never publicly acknowledged a planned meeting with Trump -- stationed an aide at the 56th street entrance to Trump Tower, who first assured the assembled press corps that Romney was on his way, then continued to make small talk with reporters, and plead ignorance as to the candidate's arrival time, as the meeting went on upstairs.
 
As it approached 3:00 pm ET -- an hour after what Trump spokesman Michael Cohen had said was the meeting's scheduled start time -- the aide flagged down a cab, told the press corps that the meeting had ended, apologized, and left.
 
Trump, who briefly flirted with a presidential run earlier this year, has met with several GOP candidates in highly publicized affairs, including recently dining with Texas Gov. Rick Perry at Manhattan's Jean Georges restaurant. Herman Cain's campaign announced today that Cain would meet with Trump in New York on Oct. 3.
 
Cohen reiterated to NBC News this morning that the Romney campaign had requested today's meeting, and that all the details of how it would take place would be left up to the campaign.
 
The planned meeting between Romney and Trump drew fire from Democrats and at least one of Romney's GOP rivals. The DNC released a web video this morning attacking Trump and Romney for their positions on Medicare, Social Security and other issues. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman's campaign spokesman Tim Miller issued several tweets mocking the two men, and looking to tie Romney to some of Trump's more controversial positions, including Trump's crusade earlier this year to get President Obama to prove his American citizenship.
 
Asked if Romney wanted to avoid being seen with Trump, campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul replied that the candidate had no open press events today, only private meetings.

Trump released this statement about the meeting: "Both Gov. Romney and I very much enjoyed the meeting. Many things were discussed of national and international interest. We both look forward to future meetings."

A move by the Justice Department -- due today -- may determine whether the Supreme Court takes up the titanic legal battle over the Obama health care bill this term or waits another year.

The government must say by today what it will do in response to a decision in August by a federal appeals court. Issuing a ruling in a lawsuit brought by Florida and 25 other states who challenged the law, a three-judge panel said Congress exceeded its powers in requiring that virtually all Americans buy health insurance.

Under federal rules, the Obama administration must give notice today if it wants the full appeals court to re-hear the Florida case. The Justice Department could opt to bypass the appeals court and go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.

If the administration chooses today to bypass the appeals court in the Florida case, there's a good chance the Supreme Court would agree sometime during this coming term to hear the health-care challenges. But if the government seeks review by the full appeals court, then it's almost certain we'll have to wait another year -- which would mean that a decision on the Obama health-care law would be coming during the 2012 election year.
 
Two other courts of appeal have ruled on challenges to the law. One ruled that a legal challenge brought in Virginia was filed prematurely. The court said the financial penalty the law would impose on those who fail to buy insurance is actually a tax. A federal law, the Anti-Injunction Act, bars lawsuits seeking to challenge a tax provision before it goes into effect, the court said. 

A separate federal appeals court upheld the health-care law. The challengers in that case have already asked the Supreme Court to take up the issue.

By msnbc.com's Michael O'Brien

President Obama's fiery speech to the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) Foundation's dinner on Saturday evening drew a stiff rebuke Monday from Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), who questioned whether it was warranted for the president to tell black voters to "stop grumbling" and "put on your marching shoes."

"Some of his words were not, I think, appropriate and surprised me a little bit," Waters said Monday morning on CBS. "I was curious about it."

But other members of the CBC, including its chairman, Missouri Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D), have had different reactions to the speech, which they defended as a rallying call to African American voters, whose large turnout in 2008 helped fuel Obama's election, and whose 2012 turnout could be pivotal to the president's reelection effort.

"The Congressional Black Caucus supports the president; we intend to be as strongly pushing his reelection as anybody in the country," Cleaver said Monday morning on MSNBC.

"I was like most of the crowd there -- incredibly enthusiastic by the fighting spirit the president was showing. I think the president is right-on-message," Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards (D), another CBC member, said in a separate appearance on MSNBC. "I think it's incredibly clear, the difference, like night and day, between Republicans, who want to give special breaks to the wealthiest in this country, and the president of the United States. And it's important that we reelect him because we have to really get this country back...the president was on that message, and we're going to be on that message, too, for 2012."

Obama's speech on Saturday night to the CBC largely served as an animated -- if sometimes blunt -- call to action for black voters to get in line ahead of a tough reelection battle.

"I expect all of you to march with me and press on. Take off your bedroom slippers, put on your marching shoes," Obama said. "Shake it off. Stop complaining, stop grumbling, stop crying. We are going to press on. We’ve got work to do, CBC."

The nation's first African-American president has weathered some criticism that he hasn't done enough via his economic plans to help the black community, which has been disproportionately affected by the recession. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the black unemployment rate stood at 16.3 percent at the end of August, well above the national average of 9.1 percent.

Waters, who endorsed then-Sen. Hillary Clinton over Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, has been one of the president's top critics within the CBC. She publicly criticized the president last month at a town hall meeting in Atlanta hosted by the CBC, where she described a "growing frustration" with the president within minority communities, and questioned why Obama's August bus tour didn't stop in any predominantly black areas. She suggested Monday that Obama would never speak to Hispanic, gay rights, or pro-Israel groups the way he spoke to the CBC.

(The president has delivered a similar message, though, in recent days. Obama told supporters last night that "I may need you to have some arguments with our progressive friends," admonishing them against becoming "dispirited" because the administration wasn't able to achieve everything its liberal supporters had wanted.)

Obama's speech Saturday didn't make any reference to Waters, but contained unmistakable political undertones as Obama begins to ramp up his reelection effort. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll earlier this month found that Obama's support from black voters remained high; 92 percent of black respondents approved the way Obama is handling his job, while just five percent disapproved.

Those numbers raise questions about the extent to which Obama will be able to lean on the black vote in 2012 the way he did during his initial campaign, especially in potential swing states like Virginia or North Carolina, where African American turnout tipped the scale toward Obama.

"Trying to get the maximum turnout is going to be challenging, there's no question about it. I'm not going to pretend that it's going to be easy or even comparable to what we had three years ago," Cleaver said, acknowledging the challenges facing the president's reelection. But the CBC chairman argued that that's why it was important for Obama to begin his outreach efforts now.

"If we make a decision to stay home next year for the 2012 presidential election, we're making a decision to put someone out of the White House who genuinely wants to stop the bleeding, if you will, of those who are unemployed," he said.

Less than four months before the first GOP nominating contests are expected to begin, the narrative of the 2012 presidential primary is shaping up to sound something like this: Texas Gov. Rick Perry will pit his unapologetic anti-establishment rhetoric against Mitt Romney's discipline, network of political professionals, and appeal to a broad general electorate.
 
While the GOP contest might not be that clear-cut in reality -- and the race is sure to see more twists and turns ahead -- that's still a metaphorical shootout that Perry would like to have.

After all, he won a similar fight two years ago without appearing to break a sweat at the end. And it's a playbook he might rely on more heavily after a series of tough debate performances, as well as his upset loss at the Florida Straw Poll.
 
Perry's 2010 gubernatorial primary contest against Kay Bailey Hutchison should have been a nail-biter. By many accounts the most popular politician in Texas, Hutchison was known as a competent fighter for the state's interest, and she had the backing of Karl Rove and other establishment Republicans. And after winning only 39% of the vote in his 2006 re-election as Texas governor, Perry was facing lower approval ratings and grumblings about his decision to run for a third term.
 
But Perry, a cotton farmer turned politician, sensed a change in the weather.
 
On Tax Day 2009 -- as most D.C. Republicans were warily eying "Tea Party" groups and gingerly testing what looked like cracks in the Republican Party's foundations -- Perry was donning a bomber jacket and taking the stage at a rally of those frustrated Texans.
 
"I'm just not real sure you're a bunch of right-wing extremists," Perry bellowed to activists in Austin. "But if you are, we're with you."
 
The Tea Party crowd erupted in cheers:

 
After the same event, Perry suggested to reporters that Texas could secede from the union if Washington “continues to thumb their nose at the American people.”
 
The anti-Washington wave wouldn't crash nationwide for another 19 months on Election Day, but with those statements, Perry positioned himself at its head.
 
“That was the tipping point in the race” said Southern Methodist University political science professor Calvin Jillson. “Perry understood that there was a change taking place in public perception of government."
 
Branding “Washington Kay”
At the same time, Perry's team was discovering that Hutchison's support was more shallow than it seemed -- especially among those in the new movement Perry was riding.
 
"Kay was casually well-liked," said Perry pollster Mike Baselice. "She hadn't had a real challenge since her special election. A lot of people just said, 'Oh yeah, Kay's great.’ But as soon as you explained her record to Republican primary voters, they took off and ran the other way. They had no idea."
 
Team Perry set out to make sure those voters got an idea.
 
Texans soon started hearing their senior senator dubbed "Kay Bailout" to underscore her support of the unpopular TARP bill. Perry's opposition research website lived atwww.WashingtonKay.com. Hutchison’s record on earmarks -- in earlier times viewed as a quantitative record of a lawmaker's willingness to fight for federal resources for the state –- became one of her greatest liabilities.
 
"Every time they talked about her, they talked about her in the context of Washington," said former Hutchison staffer Matt Mackowiak. "Votes, earmarks, lobbyists, PAC fundraisers. They talked about 'career politician and Virginia resident Kay Bailey Hutchison.' They could get about seven insults in seven words there."
 
Perry also ran relentlessly to Hutchison’s right on social issues -- in particular, hammering her on her more moderate position on abortion. As Hutchison pleaded for primary voters to see that her rival “talks like a conservative, but governs like a liberal,” her support continued to collapse.
 
The effectiveness of Perry’s message -- and the discipline with which he and his team executed it -- left his opponent dazed. Days before Perry thundered to a 20-point victory in the March 2 primary, a stunned Hutchison told the Associated Press she never thought Texans “would buy” her competitor’s tactic.
 
“I didn’t think that anyone could turn my success in producing results for Texas into a negative,” she lamented. “But I think that he has attempted to do that and that is what I’ve been having to fight against.”
 
Parallels to the present
Just as Hutchison tried to paint herself as the reasonable, measured alternative to a governor whom even some allies teasingly refer to as “Yosemite Sam,” Perry’s main 2012 rival was quick to make the argument that the Tea Party favorite’s policy positions are too extreme to win over voters in a general election.
 
Romney, himself a former presidential candidate and the son of a three-term governor and onetime White House hopeful, is -- as Hutchison was -- more the favorite of the “establishment” Republicans publicly reviled by Perry.
 
Specifically citing Perry’s tough talk on Social Security, Romney said earlier this month that Republicans “will be obliterated as a party” if they choose Perry as their nominee. (That sentiment is echoed by Rove -- the same GOP strategist who backed Hutchison in 2010 -- who now calls Perry’s position on Social Security “toxic” to the GOP. )

Romney also has stressed that he's the more electable Republican. "I’m going to be a Republican candidate who can win," he said last week. "I say that with significance."
 
Perry, a Texas A&M graduate who is careful to point out that he wasn’t “born with four aces in my hand,” has responded by needling the kind of “established Republican who circulates in the cocktail circuit that would find some of my rhetoric to be inflammatory.”
 
That’s a familiar-sounding line from a candidate who once praised outsider queen Sarah Palin for making liberals and D.C. media elites “foam at the mouth.”
 
Perry’s gleeful blasting of the Beltway during the GOP primary is undoubtedly resonating with voters, who have vaulted him to the top of national polls. But it is less clear that his anti-Washington playbook from 2010 will be as effective against a GOP rival who has never held federal elected office.
 
“It’s a problem for Perry,” said one Republican operative who declined to be named because of employment by a group that will not endorse in the race. “Romney may have some allies and fundraisers in Washington, but that doesn't connect to voters in Iowa. They don't know who those people are.”
 
And Romney, an energetic candidate with a deep-pocketed team of opposition researchers, might be better equipped than Hutchison was to deconstruct Perry’s popularity with Republicans in his idiosyncratic home state.
 
“The campaign that Perry’s running right now is the campaign that has served him very well in Texas,” Jillson says. “But it’s an open question as to whether it translates to the national level.”

The verdict from Saturday’s Florida Straw Poll: None of the above… The past few weeks have been a flashing red light for Perry, but they’re also a flashing yellow light for Romney… Christie continues to say no, but he’s still answering the phone… Obama to Democrats over the weekend: It’s time to stop complaining and get to work… President holds town hall at LinkedIn at 2:00 pm ET… Possibility of a government shutdown: Déjà vu all over again?... And Education Nation: Attitudes about the state of America’s education system, per our most recent NBC/WSJ poll.

AP

Republican presidential candidate businessman Herman Cain at the Florida Republican Party Presidency 5 Convention on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2011.

*** None of the above: So what do we make of Herman Cain’s surprising -- and overwhelming -- victory at Saturday’s Florida Straw Poll? Call it a vote for “None of the Above” by the conservatives who gathered in Orlando. They didn’t break for second-place finisher Rick Perry after his debate struggles and after they displayed chinks in his conservative armor (on immigration and HPV). They also didn’t go for third-place finisher Mitt Romney, who as the St. Pete Times’ Adam Smith notes has been campaigning in Florida for at least the past five years. Bottom line: There’s an opening for another Republican. But there are two questions: 1) Is there a willing and viable candidate out there? And 2) Is there enough time? By the way, Chris Christie is still saying no. “Mr. Christie's aides say the governor hasn't budged from his months-long insistence that he won't enter the presidential fray, despite what one described as a ‘relentless’ stream of calls over the last week from prominent Republicans urging him to run,” the Wall Street Journal says.

*** A flashing red light for Perry and a flashing yellow light for Romney: While there’s a flashing red light on Perry’s candidacy right now, there’s also a flashing yellow light for Romney. After Romney’s solid debate performances and his next-in-line status (after his finish in 2008), why are key Republican money men banging on Christie’s door -- and not Romney’s? What’s more, Romney has yet to receive the scrutiny (both good and bad) that Perry has received in the past month. What the Texas governor has gone through on the subject of immigration is something that the former Massachusetts governor has yet to truly encounter on what is his Achilles Heel in a GOP primary: health care. As GOP Sen. Mark Kirk said on “Morning Joe” today, running for president isn’t a marathon; it’s the ironman. Nobody’s ever ready, but clearly getting in late makes you feel less ready. Just ask Perry.

AP

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Thursday, Sept. 22, 2011 in Lawrenceville, N.J.

*** Christie is still answering the phone: As for Christie, the calls keep coming for him to run. And he keeps saying no. But guess what: He’s still answering the phone. It’s what’s keeping the Christie storyline alive. And even if he doesn’t run, it’s probably a storyline he’s enjoying. By the way, this isn’t a family thing, so we’re told. In fact, a few months back, former First Lady Barbara Bush called Christie’s wife to reassure her about raising teenagers during a campaign and in the Washington bubble. But this isn’t like Daniels, who didn’t run out of deference for his family. For Christie, his family’s on board, if he gets on board. Christie’s the one, himself, who believes he’s not ready for this. And the fact is, Christie may be right. Right now, he’s a Rorschach Test for conservatives. Notice what happened to Perry when it was exposed he went against the conservative grain on issues like immigration and HPV?

*** Money week: Everyone is scooping up cash in this final frenzy before the end of the 3^rd quarter. How close to $15 million does Perry get? What about Romney? How much does this latest round of handwringing over Perry slow down HIS fundraising? Does Romney get a boost at all, or does Christie chatter prevent that? After this week, look for Perry to begin the policy speech circuit (and rolling out an economic plan) in the first part of October. And also look for them to try and get to the next phase of the campaign (in their mind) -- which is to put Romney on the defensive. It’s how Team Perry believes they can stop their own bleeding. Well, that, and performing, um, slightly better at the next debate.

*** Obama to Democrats: Stop the complaining and get to work: Over the weekend, we saw a much more combative and aggressive Obama. In remarks on Saturday to a Congressional Black Caucus dinner, the president concluded, “I expect all of you to march with me and press on. Take off your bedroom slippers, put on your marching shoes. Shake it off. Stop complaining, stop grumbling, stop crying. We are going to press on. We’ve got work to do, CBC.” (By the way, you know Obama is in campaign mode when he’s dropping his g’s.) And at a fundraiser in California last night, he criticized the GOP presidential field and the crowds at their debates. “You've got a governor whose state is on fire denying climate change," he said, obviously referring to Perry. “You've got audiences cheering at the prospect of somebody dying because they don't have health care and booing a service member in Iraq because they're gay.” He went on to say, "We're going to have a stark choice in this election. But I have to make sure that our side is as passionate and as motivated and is working just as hard as the folks on the other side.”

AP

President Obama exits Air Force One after arriving in San Jose, California on Sunday, Sept. 25, 2011.

*** LinkedIn email spam alert: Obama remains out West to promote his jobs bill and to fundraise before the 3^rd fundraising quarter ends on Sept. 30. Today, he participates in a town hall on the economy at 2:00 pm at LinkedIn headquarters in Mountain View, CA. He then hits fundraisers in San Diego and Los Angeles. Tomorrow, he will sell his jobs plan in Denver, CO before returning to the White House.

*** Déjà vu all over again? The other big political story -- besides the GOP presidential race and Obama’s West Coast swing -- is the possibility of another government shutdown. The Washington Post: “With time running out, Congress returns Monday to try to pass a short-term funding measure to avert a government shutdown and avoid yet another market-rattling showdown over the federal budget. The Democratic-led Senate, which on Friday blocked a GOP House measure to fund the government through Nov. 18, will vote late Monday on its own version of the bill. The Senate bill includes dollars for disaster relief without an offsetting spending cut elsewhere that the House GOP demands.”

*** On the 2012 trail: Romney, in New York, meets with Donald Trump and holds a fundraiser with Jewish leaders… Paul is also in the Big Apple, where he tapes an appearance on “The Daily Show”… Bachmann campaigns in Iowa… And Roemer is in New Hampshire. By the way, the DNC has a web video hitting Romney’s visit with Trump today.

*** Education Nation: As part of NBC’s weeklong focus on education, the most recent NBC/WSJ poll contained poll numbers on the public’s view of the subject. Per the poll, nearly three-quarters of adults give the nation’s schools either a C grade (45% of respondents), D grade (22%), or and F (7%). In addition, more than 60% say they are “very willing” or “somewhat willing” to pay higher federal taxes to improve the quality of the nation’s schools. The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Aug. 27-31, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

*** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Gov. Mary Fallin (R-OK) on education, the economy, and more…  NBC’s Kristen Welker on President Obama’s West Coast swing… Latest on the attack on the CIA in Kabul… NBC’s Luke Russert on the possibility of a federal government shutdown… Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook on whether the GOP has a problem in Gov. Perry’s candidacy… More 2012 with the Washington Post’s Dan Balz, MSBNC’s Michelle Bernard, and Democratic strategist Jennifer Palmieri.

*** Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Gen. Colin Powell and Alma Powell (as part of NBC’s “Education Nation”), Michigan GOP Chair Robert Schostak, NBC’s Chuck Todd, and the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza.

Countdown to Election Day 2011: 43 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 133 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up, and it’s likely that the contest takes place earlier.

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

At his first fundraiser in San Jose, CA yesterday, Obama said: "Some of you here may be folks who actually used to be Republicans but are puzzled by what's happened to that party, are puzzled by what's happening to that party. I mean, has anybody been watching the debates lately? You've got a governor whose state is on fire denying climate change," he said per the pool report, referring obviously to Texas Gov. Rick Perry. "It's true. You've got audiences cheering at the prospect of somebody dying because they don't have health care and booing a service member in Iraq because they're gay.”

"We're going to have a stark choice in this election,” Obama continued. “But I have to make sure that our side is as passionate and as motivated and is working just as hard as the folks on the other side because this is a contest of value. This is a choice about who we are and what we stand for and whoever wins this next election is going to set the template for this country for a long time to come."

At his second California fundraiser yesterday, Lady Gaga was in attendance, though there were no photos/video of her. Per the print pool report: “At 8:03 pm [PST] Lady Gaga entered... delicately walking on sky-high heels (she towered over everyone, a good 2 feet taller than POTUS). She was wearing a floor-length sleeveless lacey black dress, her blonde hair was gathered in a bouffant up-do adorned with a black hair piece with a black veil down the back, which she swept to the side and in front of her left shoulder. (The hair added about 6 inches to her stature). She took a seat at the middle table in the tent and stood up with the other guests when POTUS entered a few minutes later.”

Reuters on Obama's West Coast fundraising yesterday:  “U.S. President Barack Obama harshly criticized Republican opponents on Sunday as he began a West Coast fundraising tour, accusing them of "ideological pushback" at a time of national crisis.”

The Washington Post: “With time running out, Congress returns Monday to try to pass a short-term funding measure to avert a government shutdown and avoid yet another market-rattling showdown over the federal budget. The Democratic-led Senate, which on Friday blocked a GOP House measure to fund the government through Nov. 18, will vote late Monday on its own version of the bill. The Senate bill includes dollars for disaster relief without an offsetting spending cut elsewhere that the House GOP demands.”