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  • Gingrich knocks Perry, says, 'Social Security is a fact'

    EXETER, N.H. -- Newt Gingrich wrapped his latest New Hampshire swing by calling Social Security "a fact" and drew a distinction from Perry in his approach to the matter.

    Speaking to 125 retirees at RiverWoods Retirement Community, Gingrich hit back at Rick Perry on his social security debate remarks.

    "Social security is a fact," he said.

    He went on to advocate a plan for those younger than 40 to choose either a personal investment option or the current system.

    "For those above 48, nothing changes,” Gingrich said. “We would keep the current system.” (His communications staff clarified said that is an approximate age.) Remember, Gingrich caught flak from conservatives for deriding Rep. Paul Ryan’s approach to reforming Medicare, calling it “right-wing social engineering.”

    He said economic growth is the key to making Social Security work in the short term.

    Asked by a retired physician about his position on healthcare, Gingrich even said he agrees with parts of Obama's health-care plan but did not think the vast majority was acceptable.

    Gingrich also said he supports drug testing for everyone who receives federal aid; criticized Warren Buffett and Bill Gates for putting money into tax-free foundations; and called poverty in America both "cultural and structural" and advocated that welfare recipients to work toward an equity stake in public housing.

    Gingrich has no public events scheduled this weekend and will appear at the CNN Tampa debate Monday night.

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  • Lacking momentum, Santorum vies for attention

    Since the Iowa Straw Poll on Aug. 13, presidential hopeful Rick Santorum has frequently touted the new momentum his fourth-place finish gave his campaign.

    Last week his Iowa staff moved into a new office space, announcing in a press release that the location would “better accommodate growing staff and volunteer needs.” The same is true for his New Hampshire team, which has moved into Tim Pawlenty’s old headquarters in the first-in-the-nation primary state.

    But the Santorum campaign’s new headquarters in Iowa are actually smaller than the space they moved from. And even after they announced the new office in New Hampshire, a large “TimPawlenty.com” sign still hung from the roof, dwarfing the Santorum yard signs that were plopped in the grass below.

    Santorum heads into the fall struggling to compete with his better-funded opponents. And unlike the straw poll, the caucuses will have on the ballot another candidate with plenty of momentum right now, Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- which the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows as the front-runner in the GOP presidential race.

    But more so than money or support, the Santorum campaign feels one of its biggest challenges has been getting attention. It’s the reason why September -- with three presidential debates this month – is so important for the former Pennsylvania senator. It is also why his team knows they will have to travel more miles and make more campaign stops than any other candidate.

    The debates are one of the few opportunities for Santorum to get in front of a national crowd. Jamie Johnson, Santorum’s Iowa coalitions director, is drawing comparisons to a former candidate who succeeded in Iowa despite being outspent in the Hawkeye State. “If you look at how [former presidential candidate Mike] Huckabee went through the debate process four years ago, you’ll see a pattern that’s similar to how Santorum is doing,” Johnson said. “You keep plodding along and you keep getting hits when you come to the batters box, and people say, ‘You know what, the guy’s solid.’ “   

    But Huckabee came out of the 2007 straw poll as a solidified top-tier candidate with his second-place finish. And the former Baptist pastor had the important Evangelical voters of Iowa well in hand by the time the caucuses came, with his stiffest competition coming from Mitt Romney, who is Mormon. Santorum, a Catholic who touts his strong social values, faces some of his stiffest competition in Iowa from Protestant candidates like Michele Bachmann and Perry who share many of his staunch social conservative beliefs.

    “The problem for him is that everyone from the Republican side sings from the same hymnal,” said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines.

    Santorum has also feels he has been excluded from opportunities to differentiate his views from his fellow Republican candidates.  After the Fox News debate in Ames, Iowa on August 11, he complained about not getting as much time as other candidates, and that the questions directed to him were focused on social issues, not the economy.  He felt the same way after the MSNBC/Politico debate, telling Chris Matthews in the spin room, “I just figured I needed to get some airtime somewhere tonight." Santorum’s low polling also left him out of Sen. Jim DeMint’s (R-SC) Palmetto Freedom Forum on Monday, an event five other candidates attended.

    So the strategy for his presidential bid going forward will rely on the same heavy travel schedule that allowed him to claim success in the straw poll, according to his Iowa state director Cody Brown.  Racking up the miles in early primary states is how Santorum will combat his the lack of attention.

    In the weeks leading up to the straw poll, Santorum visited 60 counties in Iowa, holding almost 110 town hall events throughout the state. Brown described “The Ring of Fire” strategy -- an imaginary radius the campaign drew around Ames that extended to the farthest corners of the state where they hoped to draw supporters from.

    “Our problem is getting him in front of enough people. It’s not making the sale, it’s making sure we contact enough people so they get to see him, and hear from him,” Brown said. “Obviously his travel schedule becomes a key part of our strategy.”

    Since the straw poll, Santorum has been campaigning in New Hampshire and South Carolina and fundraising in his home state of Pennsylvania. Brown makes clear they are running a national campaign. But also acknowledges Santorum will need to finish higher in the caucuses than he did the straw poll to have an impact after Iowa.

    It’s why the three full-time staffers who work for Santorum in the Hawkeye state are gearing up for the candidates return, and why members of Santorum’s family are making plans to be in the state most of October. 

    It’s also why their new headquarters in Iowa, though smaller, has more space for volunteers. “What a campaign like ours needs to do is, we need to leverage our volunteer base -- free labor,” said Brown. “When you have an underfunded campaign, the people who really believe in the senator are the people who will be able to overcome adversity when it happens,” he added.    

    Though his poll numbers have been low and his impact on the race limited, political observers in Iowa feel Santorum’s brand of retail politics can resonate in a state that places so much value in face time with voters. Tim Albrecht, a Republican strategist and communications director for Gov. Terry Brandstad (R-IA), said both the number of campaign stops and trips to the outer reaches of the state will be rewarded when the caucuses are held on a winter night at beginning of next year.

    “Rick Santorum has put together a campaign that actually knows how to compete in Iowa,” said Albrecht.

    Still, the presence of Perry and -- now to a lesser extent -- Bachmann, who appeal to the same values voters, stand firmly in the way.

  • First Thoughts: 'Pass this bill'

    Fiery Obama: “Pass this bill”… A surprising reaction from GOP leaders: They didn’t reject the speech out of hand… Obama delivers remarks at 11:35 am ET in Richmond to sell his American Jobs Act… Terror threat before 9/11 anniversary… And Romney vs. Perry on Social Security continues.

    *** “Pass this bill”: Before last night’s presidential speech on jobs and the economy, we asked what kind of Obama we’d see. Inspirational Obama? Conciliatory Obama? Fiery Obama? The answer was behind Door No. 3 -- Fiery Obama. He had a message to Congress, and he repeated it 17 times to make sure no one missed it: “Pass this bill.” The American Jobs Act, which he formally sends to Congress next week, calls for tax breaks for companies that hire new workers, an extension of unemployment benefits for another year, and keeping the payroll tax cuts for another year. What struck us was how simple Obama’s language was (for instance, he never uttered the word “infrastructure”). The speechwriting team actually finished this speech on the early side (for them). They knew exactly the tone they wanted to take for a week and decided that short and to the point was their best angle. Obama was also very specific in his remarks. And he demanded urgent action. “The next election is 14 months away, and the people who sent us here … they don’t have the luxury of waiting 14 months… They need help, and they need it now.”  

    AP

    *** A surprising reaction from GOP leaders: The Republican reaction to the president’s remarks was almost as interesting as the speech. The leadership was conciliatory. House Speaker Boehner issued this statement: “The proposals the president outlined tonight merit consideration. We hope he gives serious consideration to our ideas as well.” While House Majority Leader Cantor didn’t like Obama’s all-or-nothing approach, he said this: “What we should do is go for the things in the package that we both can agree on.” The GOP leadership reads polls and cares about them. That’s never been the issue. What is the issue: the party’s rank-and-file and its presidential candidates (all of whom released statements last night criticizing Obama’s speech). So the challenge for House GOP leaders -- and the Obama White House -- is how they bring along the base and the presidential candidates. Realistically, if half of the proposal gets passed, the White House would see that has a victory.

    AP

    President Obama boards Air Force One, September 9, 2011.

    *** Selling the plan: The day after the president’s speech last night, Obama speaks in Richmond, VA -- in Eric Cantor’s district -- to sell his American Jobs Act at 11:35 am ET. Next week, the president travels to Boehner’s home state of Ohio. Speaking of Richmond, Democratic pollster Geoff Garin yesterday conducted a dial test there of 32 swing voters to gauge the president’s speech for the pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action. Consider the source, of course, but Garin said Obama’s speech tested well among the respondents. “Many respondents came into the room feeling discouraged, dispirited, and disappointed, but in last night’s speech they saw the Barack Obama they had hoped they were electing in 2008,” Garin said in a memo to reporters. “Their simple message to President Obama is: Keep it up. They saw the speech as a beginning, and they want the President to continue pressing the case for the agenda he laid out before Congress.” In an email to First Read, Garin even compared the speech to Obama’s Iowa J-J address in Nov. 2007. To be sure, the president has had other speeches score well, but what’s hurt the White House is staying focused on selling its message around the country for a sustained period of time.

    AP

    Officials stop a commercial vehicle at a checkpoint in Manhattan, September 9, 2011.

    *** Terror threat: Yet possibly overshadowing Obama’s speech yesterday -- especially with the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on Sunday -- was news of a terror threat tied to the anniversary. Per NBC’s Jon Dienst, Bob Windrem and Pete Williams, U.S. government officials said yesterday that recent intelligence advised of a plan to set off car or truck bombs in Washington or New York. The information indicated that three people would travel to the U.S. from Pakistan to carry out an attack. But the information included very little else in the way of specifics -- in terms of timing or target. Officials say that while the information has some specificity, and the source has been credible in the past, it's uncorroborated. They have no idea whether this is for real or not. 

    AP

    Republican presidential candidates former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

    *** Romney vs. Perry continues: Turning to the 2012 race… A day after Wednesday’s NBC-Politico debate -- and days before another debate in Florida -- Mitt Romney and Rick Perry kept up their spat over Social Security. The Romney camp dumped their oppo file on Perry. “RICK PERRY: RECKLESS, WRONG ON SOCIAL SECURITY” was the title of a Romney press release yesterday. The Perry camp fired back with this release: “Mitt Romney’s Social Insecurity: Despite Debate Posturing, Romney’s Writings Compare Social Security to a Criminal Enterprise.”

    *** On the 2012 trail: Huntsman stumps in Florida… Gingrich remains in New Hampshire… And both Cain and Roemer speak at a Tea Party Express event in South Carolina.

    *** Friday's "Daily Rundown" line-up: White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer on President Obama’s jobs plan pitch to Congress and reaction to the plan from Sen. Bob Corker, R-TN… NBC’s Pete Williams with the latest on what officials are saying about a terror threat related to the 9/11 anniversary… Sen. Bob Menendez, D-NJ, on the 9/11 anniversary and President Obama’s jobs plan… And 2012 news with AP’s Liz Sidoti, National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru and The Hotline’s Reid Wilson.

    *** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews former Bush Homeland Security head Tom Ridge, Sen. Joe Lieberman, GOP Rep. Tom Price, Dem Rep. (and DCCC Chair) Steve Israel, and major Republican fundraiser Fred Malek on 2012. 

    Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 4 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2011: 60 days
    Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 150 days
    * Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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  • Obama agenda: Going big

    The Boston Globe called Obama’s speech “sweeping,” “audacious in scope,” and “part policy explanation and part political challenge.” And there’s this: “[I]n a recognition of the ascendant GOP in Congress, Obama loaded the plan with about $250 billion in tax cuts, in essence challenging Republicans to support him on policies many had previously exhorted.”

    But: “The president repeatedly stated that the cost of the plan would be offset, but he provided few details on how he would accomplish that last night, other than asking the 12-member congressional supercommittee charged with reducing the growth of the federal debt by $1.5 trillion to increase its target by at least $447 billion.” More: “The decision to separate the introduction of the jobs plan from the deficit plan allowed Democrats to rally almost unanimously around the jobs bid, something they likely would not do if it included cuts to entitlement programs.”

    The Washington Post's Balz says that Obama spoke with a renewed sense of urgency — and with more pointed rhetoric than he often projects from such a weighty podium.

    The New York Times: “Though Mr. Obama’s proposals — including an expansion of a cut in payroll taxes and new spending on public works — were widely expected, the package was substantially larger than predicted, and much of the money would flow into the economic bloodstream in 2012. The pace would be similar to that of the $787 billion stimulus package passed in 2009, which was spread over more than two years. Analysts said that, if passed, the package would likely lift growth somewhat.”

    The Boston Globe’s Johnson on last night’s speech and the GOP challenge facing Obama: “In word and deed, though, the rival Republican Party has made it clear it is willing to stand pat, even if the president and the Democrats aren’t. The GOP underscored its hostility with the simple act of staying seated last night as Democrats stood across the aisle to applaud many of the president’s ideas. There were few moments of unity even as the country’s leader offered his ideas for leading the nation out of the worst recession since the Great Depression.”

    Roll Call: “Throughout the speech, the president avoided the lofty rhetoric that has been a hallmark of his oratory, opting for a more blunt tone.”

    The Hill points out: “More than half of the new jobs package consists of tax cuts designed to encourage small-business growth and hiring.”

    Politico’s Thrush: “The problem for Obama - even the fiery, focused Obama who addressed a joint session of Congress Thursday - is that his political fate in 2012 is tied to the unforgiving, largely uncontrollable metrics of economic misery. And none of his potential GOP opponents will be held accountable if Obama’s $447 billion proposal fails to stem the economy’s ominous slide, while all of them will arguably profit if he fails.”

    “White House staffers say the only reason they chose the University of Richmond for President Barack Obama’s follow-up appearance today to his jobs speech is because it’s located 110 short miles from Washington — not to poke House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Obama’s least favorite foil,” Politico writes. “Yet no one in the West Wing is unhappy to see the presidential bully pulpit plop squarely in the Virginia Republican’s backyard. In their opinion, Cantor, who has emerged as the most powerful conservative spokesman in the GOP caucus, has made it his

    Paul Krugman liked Obama's speech. "The good news in all this is that by going bigger and bolder than expected, Mr. Obama may finally have set the stage for a political debate about job creation. For, in the end, nothing will be done until the American people demand action."

    So did David Brooks. “Thursday night the president gave one of the most forceful and compelling domestic policy speeches of his presidency. His proposals were drawn from the middle of the ideological spectrum and were selected to appeal to people who don’t put a lot of faith in government spending.”

    The Wall Street Journal's editorial page did not. "We'd like to support a plan to spur the economy, which is certainly struggling. Had Mr. Obama proposed a permanent cut in tax rates, or a major tax reform, or a moratorium on all new regulations for three years, he'd have our support."

  • Congress: 'Scattershot' response

    “Republicans quickly criticized President Barack Obama’s $447 billion jobs package for emphasizing short-term measures over long-term reforms, but they cautioned that they need to see the details and held out hope they could work with the president on pieces of his plan,” Roll Call writes. “The GOP’s response was unusually scattershot — hamstrung in part by the lack of details laid out by the president, particularly on how he intends to pay for the plan. And, as Obama and Congressional Democrats repeatedly noted, many of the ideas he put forward — like a proposal to cut the payroll tax for employees and small businesses — have previously been backed by Republicans in one form or another.”

    “A little more than an hour before President Obama’s address to Congress on job creation, the Senate passed and sent him an overhaul of the US patent system that Obama has long endorsed as a way to promote innovation and put Americans back to work,” the AP writes. “Proving that Congress can, on occasion, put aside partisan differences, the Senate voted 89-9 for legislation that supporters say will streamline the patent process, reduce costly legal battles, and give the US Patent and Trademark Office the money it needs to process patent applications in a timely fashion.”

    The Boston Globe: “A special congressional committee charged with reducing the growth of the federal debt by $1.5 trillion gathered for the first time yesterday, a largely ceremonial meeting that was big on displays of unity and commitment amid intense pressure to reach a bipartisan agreement.”

    Rep. John Dingell (D) pens a Washington Post op-ed entitled: “Congress needs a fresh, bipartisan start.”

  • 2012: Social Insecurity

    Politico: “Mitt Romney launched a second wave of attacks Thursday on Rick Perry and Social Security – suddenly and unmistakably the central focus of the Republican race.” More: “Romney, sensing an opportunity to halt Perry’s surge in the polls, went even further than he did on the debate stage, asserting in blunt terms that the new frontrunner had rendered himself unelectable and that his nomination could lead to a 2012 GOP wipe-out.”

    But Romney’s not pure on this: “During a primary debate in 2007, Romney praised Bush’s privatization push - a position Romney’s campaign sought to clarify yesterday,” the Boston Globe writes. His campaign says: “Governor Romney has never supported privatization of Social Security as it is commonly understood, meaning the total privatization of all Social Security. He does believe in allowing individuals, on a voluntary basis, to invest in private accounts.’’

    The Globe also has this fact check on Social Security: “[W]hile both candidates are seeking to make significant changes to the 76-year-old entitlement, the situation is not nearly as dire as either candidate makes it out to be. Actuaries project that retirees will be paid every penny that is due them through 2036. After that, they will receive 78 percent of what they are owed for an indefinite period - and that is without any change to the current program.”

    The Globe fact checks the NBC News-Politico debate here.

    BACHMANN: NBC’s Jamie Novogrod wraps the latest Bachmann news: The New York Times examines Bachmann’s press conference Thursday, which followed President Obama’s address to a joint session of Congress.  The newspaper describes the press conference as “an effort to reignite the buzz and regain momentum that her campaign has lost in recent weeks.” But it adds, “no television network carried it live, and Mrs. Bachmann took only a handful of questions.”

    And The Hill quotes unnamed GOP members of congress who express frustration over Bachmann’s press conference. As it notes, there was no official GOP response and the report cites House Republicans who accuse Bachmann of “showboating.”

    Back to Ames: The Des Moines Register reports that Michele Bachmann will appear Saturday morning in Ames, Iowa, where she plans to tailgate at the Iowa State vs. University of Iowa game. Monday, she appears in Tampa, Florida, for the CNN Tea Party debate.

    PERRY: “During the Sept. 7 Republican debate, Ron Paul clashed with fellow Texan Rick Perry once again. This time, things got physical,” the International Business Times writes, citing a photo from Reuters. “During a commercial break, Perry walked up to Paul's podium, physically grabbed Paul's wrist, and pointed at Paul's face with his other hand.”

    Karl Rove said he thought Perry had a strong debate performance and responded to Perry’s criticism of him: "I was a little surprised. I didn't know I was under his personal care like that,” Rove said on FOX, per GOP 12. “Look, it was an odd moment -- my name being mentioned in a presidential debate."

    ROMNEY: Paul McMorrow, writing in the Boston Globe calls Romney the “re-write man”: “Mitt Romney apparently doesn’t know Angelo Mozilo, the disgraced former CEO of Countrywide Financial. He’s never met a bonus-crazed investment banker or a mortgage broker looking to pad his commission or a board of directors greedily eyeing the competition’s quarterly earnings reports. Because when he was asked about the three-year old downturn this week, Romney insisted that Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, “as much as anyone I know in this country, were responsible for the meltdown that we had.’’ The only way Romney could credibly claim that the two Democratic congressmen were the most responsible for the financial meltdown would be if he knew of no one who’d ever worked on Wall Street.”

    “Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour signed on to aid the fundraising efforts of American Crossroads, the conservative group that is expected to spend millions to boost Republicans in the 2012 cycle,” Roll Call reports.

    Crossroads could double its original $120 million goal, Peter Stone reports. “We see a pathway to at least doubling our earlier projected goal,” Crossroads President Steven Law said. “Everyone is going to stretch as far as they can here because we all feel this is the most important election we have ever been involved with.”

    Political Wire: “A new Yale University survey finds that just 34% of self-identified Tea Partiers said they believe global warming is real, but 53% of those surveyed do not believe global warming is happening. In contrast, 53% of Republicans, 71% of independents and 78% of Democrats said they believe global warming is real.”

  • More 2012: Dems getting nervous about keeping Weiner seat?

    NEW MEXICO: “New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez (R), who has taken a very hard line on illegal immigrantion, acknowledged to KLUZ-TV that her paternal grandparents entered the United States illegally,” Political Wire writes.

    NEW YORK: “Democrats are showing the clearest sign yet of concern ahead of next Tuesday's special election in New York's 9th District - the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is going up on air with an expensive television buy in the campaign's closing days. According to buy information obtained by Hotline On Call, the DCCC has made a $483,500 TV ad buy in the district, starting tomorrow through Monday.”

    “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has tweaked the TV ad that is set to begin airing Friday in New York over concerns about 9/11-like imagery,” Roll Call reports. “The first version of the spot, posted to YouTube on Thursday, slammed Republican Bob Turner for living the “high life,” as an animation of a corporate jet swooped by. Later in the ad, the jet banks across the screen in front of a lifelike rendering of the New York City skyline.”

  • Rating Obama's job speech

  • Before Obama’s jobs speech, a look at what the CBO says

    From NBC’s Shawna Thomas:

    Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office released August’s budgetary outlook which puts deficits at $1.23 trillion through the first 11 months of fiscal year 2011, which is $28 billion less than the deficit in August of 2010.  A 7.6 percent increase in revenues accounts for the decrease, but outlays were also up about 3.7 percent from August 2010, making the total deficit difference smaller than the revenues suggest.

    Based on these numbers, the CBO estimates the deficit for fiscal year 2011 -- which ends Sept. 30 -- will total $1.28 trillion, about $10 billion less than last year’s shortfall.

    Last month, the CBO released its analysis of the economic impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 or what’s better known as the stimulus for the second quarter of the year. That report said that although the effects of the stimulus are waning, the economic situation of the country would’ve been worse without it.

    Specifically it said the stimulus raised real gross domestic product by between 0.8 and 2.5 percent, lowered unemployment by 0.5 to 1.6 percent and increased jobs by 1 to 2.9 million.

    Evening as it loses steam, the CBO still estimates the stimulus will raise real GDP in 2012 by 0.3 to 0.8 percent and create 0.4 to 1.1 million jobs.

    And one more thing to think about:  Last year the CBO released a report entitled “The Policies for Increasing Economic Growth and Employment in 2010 and 2011.” This report focused on policy options that might help the economy in the short-term. Some of those options have actually been enacted already and it’s very likely that the president will ask Congress to extend them or enact others in his Thursday speech.

    Looking at this report and what the president has said, here’s what the president’s Thursday wish list might look like:

    1. Extending the payroll tax cut for employees for one more year: Doing this is estimated to cost around $112B (or, that’s what the CBO estimated it would cost to extend it for this year when it first passed in December of 2010).
    2. Reducing Employers' Payroll Taxes: Firms would probably respond to this temporary reduction in their cut of the payroll tax in four different ways: some would look to lower employment costs by reducing their prices and (hopefully) selling more goods which would spur production and in turn cause an increase in goods or services. Secondly, some firms would pass the tax savings directly onto employees through higher wages or bonuses which might prompt those employees to spend more. Third, some firms would just keep the tax savings as profit which would raise their stock prices and thus raise household wealth for their shareholders, who might spend some of that in the broader economy. Higher profits for companies also improves cash flow, meaning companies could invest in more capital. Finally, some firms would use more workers during the period when this policy was giving them relief, however, most of the “extra” money (that the government relinquished to them with this tax break) would go to reduce taxes for existing workers, so-per dollar of forgone revenue-the added incentive to increase employment and hours worked would be small.
    3. Extending Unemployment Insurance: Households receiving unemployment benefits tend to spend those checks quickly, making this option timely and cost-effective at spurring economic activity and employment.
    4. Infrastructure projects:  Although the CBO takes issue with these because they usually involve a lot of start-up lag time, it seems like the President might ask for some pretty big infrastructure investment all the same.

     

     


  • Conrad's dog, featured in NBC special, diagnosed with cancer

    While thousands of staffers buzz the halls and meetings break out like flash mobs, one creature remains a steady presence: Sen. Kent Conrad's pet bichon frise.

    From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell

    North Dakota Democrat, Sen. Kent Conrad's beloved bichon frise, Dakota, has been diagnosed with lymphoma.  After years of scampering around Capitol Hill he gained notoriety when he “starred" in NBC’s “Inside Congress” documentary.   

    Dakota is about seven years old. Because he’s a rescue dog, his exact age is uncertain.

    Aides say Dakota also has Crohn's disease. The Conrads rescued him knowing his care would be costly.

    Aides expect Dakota will undergo cancer treatment. The dog has an oncology appointment Thursday.

    The senator is "really sad and concerned," according to aides. 

     

  • Appeals court tosses out health care lawsuits in Va.

    From NBC's Pete Williams:
    In a victory for the Obama administration, a federal appeals court has tossed out two lawsuits in Virginia over the president’s health care law.

    The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in both lawsuits -- one filed by Virginia Attorney General Kenneth Cuccinelli, the other by Liberty University -- that the plaintiffs did not have legal standing to sue.

    It's good news for the administration, because this is a rejection of the first case that, in dramatic fashion, brought a ruling that the health care overhaul was unconstitutional.

    But other cases remain active, including the lawsuit filed by 26 other states. So this issue has by no means gone away.

  • First thoughts: Slugfest in Simi

    Breaking down last night’s slugfest in Simi Valley… Perry steals the show early and then fades… “Steady Eddie” Romney… Bachmann fails to break through… What will be Obama’s tone tonight?… His speech to a joint session of Congress begins at 7:00 pm ET… Perry campaigns in CA, while Gingrich is in NH… And David Gregory chats with Joe Lieberman.  

    SIMI VALLEY, CA -- In the most combative and entertaining debate of the Republican primary season so far, GOP front-runners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney engaged early and often last night at the Reagan Presidential Library. They clashed over their economic records, Romney’s health-care law in Massachusetts, and Social Security. (In fact, six months ago, who would have thought that the battle between the likely final two GOP candidates would be fought over Social Security?) The debate provided further evidence that the GOP race is shaping up to be a two-man contest between the current governor of Texas and the former governor of Massachusetts -- a contrast that will be about both style and substance as the debate showed last night.

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate Gov. Rick Perry (TX).

    *** Perry steals the show then fades: As for Perry’s performance in his first debate, he stole the show in the first 45 minutes, assailing -- with a smile -- not only Romney, but also even Ron Paul and Karl Rove. But he wasn’t as sharp near the end, especially in a discussion about science and climate change where he seemed to side with the 17th-Century Catholic Church in not believing that the Earth rotated around the sun. (“Just because you have a group of scientists that have stood up and said, here is the fact -- Galileo got outvoted for a spell,” he said.) Overall, Perry showed that he was a fighter, and the result was both good and bad for him. In particular, the fight over Social Security -- where he doubled down in calling it a “Ponzi Scheme” and came in with a plan to own that -- revealed his strength (he’s unafraid and won’t flip flop), but also his weakness (can the eventual GOP nominee say that about the most popular government program?). As Romney’s camp made clear in the spin room after the debate, they see this as their clearest contrast. If you didn’t think that the Florida primary (with all the seniors who live there) was going to be HUGE, you now know… By the way, the minute Perry uttered the word "Galileo," he guaranteed a big presence on tonight's “Daily Show,” but we digress.

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

    *** Steady Eddie: Romney was steady Eddie. Unlike his past two debates, he wasn’t able to always stick to his talking points on the economy and Obama, but he remained poised and confident. He also knew when he shouldn’t pick certain fights (like ducking the health-care discussion). So three debates and three pretty good performances for Romney. You couldn’t say that about him in 2007-2008. A final point: Romney making the electability argument on Social Security -- “Our nominee has to be someone who isn't committed to abolishing Social Security but who is committed to saving Social Security” -- might ring true for the political journalists, analysts, and strategists watching the debate, but is it something that will motivate the GOP electorate? Democrats have shown that electability arguments do matter to them and can sway voters (see Kerry '04 or even Jim Webb in ‘06). But the current Republican Party? The evidence in 2010 was that electability arguments didn't gain traction, see Nevada and Delaware but also, for instance, Florida governor.

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN-6).

    *** Bachmann fails to break through: If there was a loser at last night’s debate, it was Michele Bachmann, who needed to prove that the GOP contest is a three-person race. But she wasn’t able to achieve that. Indeed, that she has gone from star (at the Ames Straw Poll) to afterthought (last night) in less than a month is an incredible development. It seemed that all the non-frontrunners last night -- Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, even Newt Gingrich -- had a strategy to insert themselves in the debate, even as they knew the focus would be on the newcomer. But Bachmann didn’t. Regarding Huntsman, his performance last night was substantially better than at his first debate in Iowa. The question is whether anyone in the GOP is listening to his message. Here’s an example: When he delivered this line last night -- “We can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy. We've got to win voters.” -- it didn’t receive any applause.

    Official White House Photo by Pete Souza

    *** What will be Obama’s tone tonight? Of course, the big event today will be President Obama’s 7:00 pm ET speech on the economy and jobs to a joint session of Congress. We have a good idea what the president will say. Per NBC’s Kristen Welker, Democratic officials familiar with Obama’s plan have said the speech will be a call to action; his plan will be comprehensive; it includes bipartisan ideas; and it will make the case for what can be done now on the economy. On the “TODAY” show, Chief of Staff Bill Daley revealed the plan would be officially dubbed, "The American Jobs Act." And he seemed to make it clear that the president would not be offering up any ideas that were complete non-starters with the GOP. Every major idea they are putting forward are ones that normally get some GOP support. So the drama for tonight: what we don’t know -- what will be his tone tonight? Will we see Frustrated Obama? Conciliatory Obama? Feisty Obama? Or Inspirational Obama?

    AP

    Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH).

    *** Boehner’s message: As for congressional Republicans, a GOP aide tells NBC’s Luke Russert that Speaker Boehner plans to deliver the following message to his conference this morning: “Majority Leader Cantor and I sent a letter to the president on Tuesday. The purpose was to give the president a roadmap of where we could find common ground on the American peoples’ top priority: jobs.  We hope he might include things we agree on in the speech tonight.” More Boehner: “We've also invited more than a dozen private-sector job creators to be guests in the Speaker's box tonight. Each of these job creators has a story to tell about Washington interfering with their efforts to create more American jobs.”

    *** On the 2012 trail: The day after last night’s GOP debate, Perry remains in California, attending a meet and greet… And Gingrich holds a town hall in New Hampshire. 

    *** Thursday's "Daily Rundown" line-up (live from Burbank!): RNC Chairman Reince Priebus reacts to the GOP debate and gives his prebuttal to tonight’s jobs speech by President Obama… NBC’s Mike Viqueira with more on the speech, and Politico’s Jonathan Martin with debate analysis… Former Obama White House Communications Director Anita Dunn and Democratic strategist Bob Shrum on what kind of message the president will deliver tonight… And more 2012 with USA Today’s Susan Page, Democratic strategist/MSNBC political analyst Karen Finney and Republican strategist Kevin Madden.

    *** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell today interviews Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, the White House’s Melody Barnes on the president’s speech, Tea Party leader Mark Meckler, and Dem Rep. Elijah Cummings.

    *** David Gregory chats with Lieberman: As part of his weekly “Press Pass,” NBC’s David Gregory chatted with Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-D) on 2012 and the economy. 

    Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 5 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2011: 61 days
    Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 151 days
    * Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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  • 2012: Perry vs. Romney

    The New York Times, like everyone else does, frames last night’s debate a clash between Perry and Romney. “A series of spirited exchanges between the two men, which revealed differences in substance and style, offered the first extensive look into the months-long contest ahead. They traded attacks on each other’s job creation records and qualifications to be president, overshadowing their opponents in the crowded Republican field.”

    More: “On the eve of the president’s economic speech to a joint session of Congress, the debate here at the Ronald Reagan Museum and Library focused far more on the distinctions among the Republican candidates than on Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy.” 

    The L.A. Times: “Sharing a debate stage for the first time, Republicans Rick Perry and Mitt Romney sparred Wednesday night in a series of testy exchanges over jobs, Social Security and the proper tone of a candidate who presumes to lead the country.” 

    “Mr. Perry, the governor of Texas, used his first appearance in a nationally televised debate to introduce himself with Lone Star bravado, saying his state's strong job growth came from its commitment to low taxation and regulation. He questioned the science behind global warming and called Social Security a ‘Ponzi scheme,’” the Wall Street Journal says. 

    The Washington Post adds, "Although Perry has had relatively little experience in such a setting, he was at ease — and occasionally combative. The Texas governor appeared unflustered and unapologetic as he took fire on his record and on some of the inflammatory statements he has made."

    The Times finds fault with many of the facts used at last night’s debate. 

  • Who do you think won the Republican debate at the Reagan library?

  • Live tweeting the debate

     

    All eyes are on the GOP hopefuls who will take the stage in tonight at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Library in Simi Valley, a northern suburb of Los Angeles. The debate is co-sponsored by NBC News and POLITICO, and airs live on MSNBC.

    It will also be livestreamed on msnbc.com and POLITICO.com

    The NBC political team will be live tweeting the debate, offering minute-by-minute updates and analysis.

    Tweets from Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro – as well as other NBC producers and correspondents – will appear as the debate begins at 8 p.m. EDT.

    **Update: The event has ended**

     

  • Who has most to gain in GOP debate?

  • First Thoughts: All eyes on Perry

    The NBC News-Politico debate from the Reagan Library … Rick Perry’s first debate – does he engage Romney? Does he show depth? … Romney’s first debate NOT as the frontrunner … Bachmann struggles for the spotlight … Paul’s views on full display … Huntsman and Santorum could come out fighting … Gingrich and Cain, can they be relevant?

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate Gov. Rick Perry (TX)

    By NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro and Brooke Brower 

    *** All eyes on Perry:  SIMI VALLEY, CA -- Officially, tonight’s NBC-Politico debate here at the Reagan Presidential Library is the fourth of the GOP presidential race. But it also represents several firsts: It's the first debate after Labor Day; it's the first featuring Rick Perry; it's also the first where Perry is the GOP front-runner -- and it's the first where Mitt Romney is not. While the physical backdrop is Reagan Library, the political backdrop is a 9.1% unemployment rate, an incumbent president whose approval rating is at an all-time low, a Congress whose disapproval rating is at an all-time high, and a nation that overwhelmingly believes the country is on the wrong track.

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney unveiling his jobs plan Tuesday, September 6, 2011 in Las Vegas, NV.

    *** Do Perry and Romney mix it up? The obvious focus of tonight’s debate -- which begins at 8:00 pm ET and which airs on MSNBC -- will be on Perry. Will the newly minted front-runner hold up to the scrutiny? Will he mix it up with the other GOP candidates (especially Romney) as easily as he’s done on the campaign trail? Or will he try to try to be more statesmanlike in his national debut? As for Romney, he has been much more aggressive since losing his front-runner status. Do we see a different Romney than we saw at his previous two debates (in New Hampshire and Iowa), when he went unscathed?

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN-6)

    *** Three’s Company: As we wrote yesterday, there’s a growing perception that the GOP presidential race is turning into a two-person race between Perry and Romney. And Ed Rollins – Michele Bachmann’s campaign manager who gave up his day-to-day duties – said: “The Perry-Romney race is now the story, with us the third candidate.” But what Bachmann will we see? This will be the first debate she’s struggling for the spotlight. No one knew what to expect in her first debate in New Hampshire, but she stuck to the talking points, was clear articulate and lit up the room. In Ames, she brawled with Tim Pawlenty, and in the end got more than double his votes in the Ames Straw Poll. But with the entry of Perry, Bachmann -- who admitted the Texas governor “sucks the oxygen out of the room” -- has struggled for relevance.

    *** The rest: Ron Paul's numbers have been climbing, though he remains far behind the top two. And just how far his anti-federal government views go, especially on issues like disaster relief, will be on full display for an audience just tuning in post-Labor Day. For candidates like Huntsman, Santorum, Gingrich and Cain – how many debates do they have left? Huntsman and Santorum have been very aggressive over the past couple weeks, hitting Romney and Perry. They could be vehicles for the heavyweight fight.

    *** On the 2012 trail: The debate, moderated by NBC’s Brian Williams and Politico’s John Harris, kicks off at 8:00 pm ET, can be seen on MSNBC, msnbc.com, and Politico.com. We will be live-Tweeting the debate here on First Read.

    *** Wednesday's "The Daily Rundown" line-up (live from the Reagan Library!): Pre-debate thoughts from Perry Campaign Communications Director Ray Sullivan, Romney Campaign Senior Adviser Eric Fehrnstrom and Bachmann Campaign Press Secretary Alice Stewart... A debate preview with Politico's Jim VandeHei... Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA) on jobs, the economy, what the GOP 2012ers are saying and President Obama's big speech tomorrow... Plus, more 2012 headlines with the New York Times' Adam Nagourney, Politico's Maggie Haberman and former RNC Chair and MSNBC political analyst Michael Steele.

    *** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports”: Andrea Mitchell interviews Huntsman, as well as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).

    Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 6 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2011: 62 days
    Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 152 days
    * Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

     
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  • In Vegas, Romney puts his chips on a jobs plan

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney unveils his economic plan.

    NORTH LAS VEGAS, NV-- In a crowded trucking company warehouse north of Las Vegas, Mitt Romney unveiled his highly anticipated economic plan today, saying it will fundamentally restructure the U.S. economy to create jobs, and painting President Obama's policies as hopelessly outdated.

    "President Obama keeps putting quarters into a pay phone that isn't connected," Romney said to cheers from supporters here. "Your pay phone strategy doesn't work in a smartphone world!"

    Romney, speaking without a teleprompter and with only a single page of notes, called his plan a "business plan for America", and outlined several of the 59 proposals laid out in a detailed 160-page book released by the campaign today. (Read the full plan here).

    In the package of legislation he said he would propose on day one, and ask congress to act upon within 30 days, Romney said he would push to lower the corporate tax rate 10 percentage points to 25 percent and immediately implement three pending free-trade agreements.

    Also on his first day agenda, Romney said he would issue executive orders to begin unwinding President Obama's healthcare legislation and other regulatory reform passed under this president, and push for sanctions to stop unfair Chinese business practices.

    Unlike former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman's plan, presented last week, Romney's plan offered no specific revisions of personal income tax brackets, but does call for the elimination of all taxes on interest, dividends and capital gains for Americans making less than $200,000 per year.

    Romney's plan to create jobs and reform the economy covers a wide variety of topics, ranging from domestic energy production, -- which Romney would push for legislation to expand -- to the creation of a so-called "Reagan Economic Zone" of free-trading nations who agree to abide by strict fair-trade and intellectual property-protection rules.

    Romney campaign officials say that their candidate's proposals amount to more than just a jobs plan, but a fundamental restructuring of the U.S. economy -- one that would create 11.5 million jobs and push GDP growth to four percent annually in the first four years of a Romney administration. Offering statistical estimates certain to be criticized and debated both by Democrats, and Romney's GOP rivals, campaign officials also say their modeling shows the plan cutting unemployment down to 5.9 percent within four years.

    Campaign officials noted that the plan was likely to draw some fire from elements of both the political left and right, and before Romney had even left the building, both the Obama and Perry campaigns issued critical statements.

    "While Mitt Romney spoke today about the struggles of the middle class, he offered a plan that would tip the scales against hard-working Americans," the Obama campaign statement read. "Governor Romney repackaged the same old policies that helped create the economic crisis: boosting oil company profits and allowing Wall Street to write its own rules, more tax breaks for large corporations and more tax cuts for the wealthiest while working Americans are forced to carry a greater burden."

    The campaign of Texas Governor Rick Perry, who according to today's NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll leads Romney by some fifteen points among Republicans, also quickly issued a statement attacking the former Massachusetts governor's record leading that state, saying he "failed to create a pro-jobs environment and failed to institute many of the reforms he now claims to support."

    But in what could become a talking point in tomorrow night's NBC News/Politico debate, one conservative voice defended Romney's plan, and called on other candidates to match it.

    "Governor Romney deserves praise for his specific plan to put America on a path to economic prosperity." said Chris Chocola, president of the conservative Club For Growth. "Unlike President Obama, who has given nothing but empty rhetoric promising more of the same failed policies, Governor Romney has offered specific solutions. Every Presidential candidate should issue a comparable blueprint for Americans to review."

  • First Thoughts: A damaging summer for Obama

    New NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama suffered a damaging summer, and it’s the political backdrop to his big speech on Thursday… But ALL of Washington takes a hit in the poll, and there are some silver linings for the president… The new official leader in the GOP race, per the poll: Rick Perry… Public backs Dem ideas for Super Committee… Romney unveils his jobs/economic plan at 3:30 pm ET in Nevada… Shake up in Bachmann Land, solidifying the perception that she is standing outside of the two-person Perry-vs.-Romney race… And Perry Super PAC plans to spend $55 million.

    *** A damaging summer for Obama: Every summer, we've observed, has damaged Barack Obama since he became a national figure. But the most recent Dog Days of August -- which included the end to the bruising debt-ceiling fight and the subsequent S&P downgrade -- bit into Obama harder than ever before, sending him to the lowest point of his presidency. According to our new NBC/WSJ poll, Obama's approval rating stands at a low of 44% (a three-point drop since June); approval of his economic handling hit a low 37%; and only 19% think the country is headed in the right direction, which is the lowest mark in his presidency. Perhaps most ominously, 54% believe he's suffering a long-term setback from which he'll unlikely to recover -- virtually identical to George W. Bush's standing on this question after Hurricane Katrina. That suggests the public is giving up on Obama, which is why Thursday’s speech is so important for him.

    AP

    President Obama greeting supporters at a Labor Day speech in Detroit, Monday, September 5, 2011.

    *** A few silver linings: If there's a silver lining for Obama in the poll, it's that a combined 70% still find him likeable (though nearly six in 10 say they disapprove of many of his policies). And 50% approve of his handling of foreign policy, which suggests the public doesn't think that everything he touches is negative. What's more, in a hypothetical general-election contest, Obama leads Perry by five points (47%-42%) and Romney by one (46%-45%), although that last margin is down five points since June. But for the first time in the poll, more say they'd probably vote for a generic Republican (44%) than say they'd probably vote for Obama (40%). As the saying goes, you can't beat someone with no one. But if the Republicans could find a guy or gal named "generic" or "no one,” they'd be in very good shape.

    *** All of Washington takes a hit: Obama isn't the only one who's damaged, per our poll. A whopping 82% disapprove of Congress' job -- the highest-ever mark in the survey. In addition, when asked who is most to blame for the S&P downgrade, a plurality points its finger at congressional Republicans. And a majority of respondents say they would vote out every single member of Congress if they could. "Everybody in Washington is taking a substantial hit," said GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Dem pollster Peter Hart. In fact, to dig further, both political parties have a DOUBLE-DIGIT net-negative rating in our poll. It's only the third time in the poll’s history when both parties were this unpopular at the same time. Usually, there's a seesaw effect; as one goes down, the other goes up. Not the case right now.

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate Gov. Rick Perry (TX) at a town hall in SC, Monday, September 5, 2011.

    *** Follow the leader -- Perry: Heading into tomorrow's NBC-Politico debate at the Reagan Presidential Library, the NBC/WSJ poll finds us with a new leader in the GOP presidential race. Rick Perry is the first choice of 38% of Republican voters, followed by Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 9%, and Bachmann at 8%. Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain are tied at 5%, while Rick Santorum gets 3%, and Jon Huntsman is at 2%. And look at Perry’s Tea Party power: Among those who identify themselves as Tea Party supporters, Perry leads Romney, 45%-18%. Among non-Tea Party Republicans, the race is essentially deadlocked, with Perry at 29% and Romney at 27%. There’s your GOP contest, folks; Romney has his work cut out for him if Perry is simply NOT a flavor of the month. Consider: Perry's 38% among GOP primary voters is higher than any number Romney's gotten since we began tracking the 2012 GOP primary. Perry looks like he can consolidate a majority of the GOP electorate.

    *** Public backs Dem ideas for Super Committee: With the first Super Committee hearing this Thursday, the NBC/WSJ poll also shows what course the public wants it to take. The good news for Obama/Democrats -- it's on their turf. Per the poll, 60% say it would be acceptable if the Super Committee comes up with a plan to reduce the deficit by ending the so-called Bush tax cuts for families earning $250,000 or more per year. Moreover, 56% say it would be acceptable if its plan reduces the deficit by a combination of tax increases and spending cuts. By comparison, just 37% believe it’s acceptable for the Super Committee to reduce the deficit by only cutting spending and not raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. And only 20% say it’s acceptable to lower the deficit by reducing spending on Medicare.

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at the Palmetto Freedom Forum, Monday, September 5, 2011.

    *** Is it safe? And with the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks coming this Sunday, our poll finds that a plurality -- 42% -- believes the U.S. is now safer than it was before the attacks. That’s a nine-point increase from Aug. 2010 on that question. By comparison, 36% think the U.S. is about as safe as it was before the attacks, and 21% say it’s less safe. But get this: By more than a 2-to-1 margin, respondents maintain that the 9/11 attacks had less of a personal impact on them than the economic recession did. In the poll, 46% cited the recession as the event that had the greatest effect on them this decade, versus 20% who cited the 9/11 attacks.

    *** Romney unveils his jobs plan: Turning to the developments on the 2012 campaign trail, Romney unveils his jobs/economic plan at 3:30 pm ET today in North Las Vegas, NV. And he previewed his speech in a USA Today op-ed. “I have spent most of my career in the private sector starting new businesses and turning around ailing ones,” he writes. “Unlike career politicians who've never met a payroll, I know why jobs come and go. [Today] I will introduce a plan consisting of 59 specific proposals — including 10 concrete actions I will take on my first day in office — to turn around America's economy.” The op-ed lists many of these proposals: keeping marginal tax rates low, eliminating capital-gains and dividend taxes for middle-income Americans, rolling back regulations like the federal health-care law, promoting free trade, standing up to China, and relying on more domestic energy production. The one potential problem we see with this laundry list is that it doesn’t contain many new ideas. The other GOP candidates have offered similar proposals.

    *** Rollins is out as Bachmann campaign manager: The other big campaign story of the day is the Bachmann team’s shake-up. As Politico reported on Sunday, campaign manager Ed Rollins is giving up his day-to-day duties and will play an advisory role, while his deputy, David Polyansky, is leaving the campaign entirely. Rollins cited exhaustion and his age for his move. Polyansky? Politico explains, per a GOP source, that his departure was due to “strategic differences.” Bottom line: Our NBC/WSJ poll already furthers the growing perception that this GOP contest has become a two-person race -- between Perry and Romney. (In fact, Bachmann is in fourth place in our poll.) And this Rollins-Polyansky story only solidifies that perception. And guess what: Rollins himself said it last night. "I think legitimately it's a Romney-Perry race," he told CNN. "I think she's the third candidate at this point in time — which is way different and better than we'd thought when we started this thing

    AP

    Republican presidential candidate former Rep. Newt Gingrich at the Palmetto Freedom Forum, Monday, September 5, 2011.

    *** The Super PAC war: And don’t miss this story, via NBC’s Michael Isikoff: “The new super PAC backing Rick Perry has drawn up plans to spend $55 million as part of an ambitious campaign strategy aimed at blowing away the Texas governor's rivals in early primary states and securing him the Republican nomination by next spring, according to internal committee documents obtained by NBC News.” In fact, check out the PowerPoint pages Isikoff has posted, the plan is to spend over $40 million of that $55 million before the end of March.

    *** On the 2012 trail: Elsewhere today, Gingrich holds a town hall in Pasadena, CA… And Buddy Roemer appears on the “Daily Show with Jon Stewart.”

    ***Tuesday's "The Daily Rundown" line-up: Breaking down the new NBC/WSJ poll numbers with pollsters Bill McInturff and Peter Hart… Veteran GOP strategist and Reagan biographer Craig Shirley on how the 2012 field is competing to seize the Reagan mantle… NBC's Kelly O'Donnell on this weekend's GOP 2012ers stumping in South Carolina… NBC's Mike Isikoff with an exclusive report on the plans of a pro-Perry superpac… American University Professor Allan Lichtman explains his formula that predicts re-election for President Obama… More 2012 with the Washington Post's Nia-Malika Henderson, Democratic pollster Fred Yang, and former Rep. Susan Molinari, R-NY. 

    Countdown to NBC-Politico debate at Reagan Library: 1 day
    Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 7 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2011: 63 days
    Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 153 days
    * Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up. 

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  • Obama agenda: 'Show us what you got'

    In what sounded like the real opening salvo to the 2012 presidential campaign, President Obama, before a mostly union crowd estimated at 12,000, showed glimmers of the fighting spirit of 2008 with a Labor Day speech laying out the broad outlines of the jobs speech he will deliver Thursday before Congress.

    Intimating he might “go big” in that Thursday speech, as his supporters would like, the president pushed for not only a renewal of the payroll tax cut but also construction jobs. And he said that while he is still willing to work with Republicans – and thinks that’s right for the country – he challenged the GOP to “show us what you got.”

    "I still believe both parties can work together to solve our problems,” he said, standing in automaker GM’s parking, adding, “But we’re not going to wait for them. We’re going to see if we’ve got some straight shooters in Congress. We’re going to see if congressional Republicans will put country before party.

    “We’ll give them a plan, and then we’ll say, do you want to create jobs? Then put our construction workers back to work rebuilding America. Do you want to help our companies succeed? Open up new markets for them to sell their products. You want -- you say you’re the party of tax cuts? Well then, prove you’ll fight just as hard for tax cuts for middle-class families as you do for oil companies and the most affluent Americans. Show us what you got. The time for Washington games is over. The time for action is now. No more manufactured crises. No more games. Now is not the time for the people you sent to Washington to worry about their jobs; now is the time for them to worry about your jobs.”

    The AP leads similarly: “President Obama used a boisterous Labor Day rally to put congressional Republicans on the spot, challenging them to place the country’s interests above all else and vote to create jobs and put the economy back on a path toward growth.”

    The top headline out of the Detroit Free Press: “Obama tells Detroit: I'll defend union rights.”

    (There was controversy, however, with Teamsters President James Hoffa going before Obama and saying of the Tea Party: "President Obama, this is your army. We are ready to march ... Let's take these son-of-a-bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong.” That has drawn the ire of conservative groups, who want an apology.)

    But here’s the new political reality Obama is facing, per our new NBC/WSJ poll: “When Barack Obama unveils his jobs and economic plan to a joint session of Congress on Thursday, he'll do so at the lowest point of his presidency, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. After the bruising debt-ceiling fight — as well as Standard & Poor's subsequent downgrade of the nation's credit rating — Obama's job approval rating has sunk to a low of 44 percent, a 3-point drop since July. His handling of the economy stands at a low of 37 percent. And only 19 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, the lowest mark for this president.”

    Here’s the Wall Street Journal’s take: “President Barack Obama this week will try to launch a political comeback amid the lowest approval ratings of his presidency and a growing sense of economic foreboding here and across the country among voters who are increasingly questioning their president's skills and priorities.”

    The new Washington Post/ABC poll is pretty similar to the NBC/WSJ one. "More than 60 percent of those surveyed say they disapprove of the way the president is handling the economy and, what has become issue No. 1, the stagnant jobs situation. Just 43 percent now approve of the job he is doing overall, a new career low; 53 percent disapprove, a new high." 

    And here's the Politico/George Washington Univ. Battleground Poll: Capturing a rapid erosion of confidence through the summer months, the poll found 72 percent of voters believe the country is either strongly or somewhat headed in the wrong direction, a jump of 12 percentage points since May. Only 20 percent of voters say the country is going in the right direction, a 12-point drop in the same period.

  • 2012: Pro-Perry Super PAC to spend $55 million

    BACHMANN: Politico first reported yesterday that campaign manager Ed Rollins will step back his day-to-day responsibilities and assume a "senior advisor" role. In an interview with Politico, Rollins cited age and his health. Politico followed with a second item reporting that deputy campaign manager David Polyansky is leaving the campaign due to strategic disagreements.  Rollins and Polyansky are veterans of Mike Huckabee's 2008 campaign for president.

    Robert Costa at NRO, writes, (via GOP 12): “In coming weeks, Bachmann’s campaign, sources say, will be focused on debates. But don’t expect Bachmann to go after Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, her tea-party competitor, at least initially. Bachmann, another adviser explains, is aiming to use the debate at the Reagan library this week to reassert her credentials and message, ‘in the style of her New Hampshire debate, not the Iowa debate, where she fought with [Tim] Pawlenty.’”

    CBS reports Bachmann had dinner with Gov. Nikki Haley and spent Sunday night at the governor’s mansion.

    The New York Times: “The change in roles for Mr. Rollins came on a day he was quoted in The Washington Post as expressing pessimism about Mrs. Bachmann’s campaign. ‘The Perry-Romney race is now the story, with us the third candidate,’ Mr. Rollins said. The moves raise questions about the future of Mrs. Bachmann’s campaign. After winning the straw poll in August, Mrs. Bachmann, of Minnesota, has struggled to maintain momentum, especially after Gov. Rick Perry of Texas entered the Republican contest.”

    HUNTSMAN: The Huntsman campaign posted a new video on jobs entitled "#1 vs #47" comparing Huntsman to Romney, who unveils his jobs plan today in Nevada, NBC’s Jo Ling Kent reports. This comparison, which this time is an image of a beat up baseball mitt and images of Huntsman as governor, has been a common theme in Huntsman's campaign in New Hampshire.

    PAUL: He’s gone up with a six-figure ad buy against Perry using Al Gore.

    PERRY: “The new super PAC backing Rick Perry has drawn up plans to spend $55 million as part of an ambitious campaign strategy aimed at blowing away the Texas governor's rivals in early primary states and securing him the Republican nomination by next spring, according to internal committee documents obtained by NBC News,” NBC’s Michael Isikoff reports, adding, “If it realizes its goals, the super PAC — which calls itself ‘Make Us Great Again’ — will likely eclipse the financial operations of Perry's official presidential campaign committee, according to some Republican consultants.”

    “Rick Perry missed his first opportunity to appear on a national stage with his Republican rivals, but the absence of the presidential front-runner did not keep him out of the conversation,” the Texas Tribune writes. “‘Certainly we missed him,’ said South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, the main organizer of the event and a leading voice of the Tea Party movement. ‘But I think, again, the candidates that we had here, all of them ... would do a better job than Barack Obama.’”

    ROMNEY: “Mitt Romney traveled to this conservative state yesterday and stepped up his courtship of Tea Party supporters, as the intensifying GOP presidential campaign entered the fall political season,” the Boston Globe reports.

    “U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint, a South Carolina Republican who represents one of the most sought-after endorsements in this Republican presidential primary season, urged his supporters Monday to withhold their support from candidates and ‘continue to listen,’” McClatchy writes.

  • More 2012: Baldwin jumps in

    NEVADA: A tough New York Times piece on the likely Dem nominee in Nevada’s competitive Senate contest. “Ms. Berkley’s actions were among a series over the last five years in which she pushed legislation or twisted the arms of federal regulators to pursue an agenda that is aligned with the business interests of her husband, Dr. Larry Lehrner. In addition to the hospital contract, he operates a dozen dialysis centers in Nevada and has played a central role in an industry campaign to lobby members of Congress — including his wife — on behalf of kidney care providers.”

    WISCONSIN: Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin’s running for the Senate. "I've heard story after story from people across Wisconsin about how their families and communities have been hurt by the economy. And they feel like no one cares; like no one's listening to them," Baldwin says in a campaign-launch video, per The Hill. "That's why I'm running for the U.S. Senate — to stand up for you, no matter how tough the odds, or how powerful the special interests it means fighting against."

  • Romney compares Tea Party to GOP

    MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Donning official white campaign aprons, GOP candidate Mitt Romney and his wife Ann kicked off their Labor Day serving 450 Republican voters 1,500 hot pancakes this morning, before Romney gave a brief speech addressing Tea Party concerns and touting his new jobs plan, which will debut tomorrow.

    Romney, who likes his pancakes with chunky peanut butter and maple syrup, attempted to dampen worries about his ability to mobilize Tea Party support the morning after a small group of Tea Party activists protested his speech at the Tea Party Express in Concord.

    "We all like to read stories that show some conflict," Romney said, downplaying what he saw as a narrative he believes the media and Democratic Party are trying to push. "I appreciate the intent to make us look like we're fighting amongst ourselves."

    "The Tea Party has at its center core a belief that government is too big," Romney said. "Sound familiar? That's what we've been saying for years and years as a Republican Party. And they're saying it well and loud. The Tea Party is a powerful movement saying government is too big and I couldn't agree more. And you're gonna see us Republicans come together. All of us agree that government is out of control."

    Earlier this morning in South Carolina, Romney was endorsed by state treasurer Curtis Loftis, who has strong Tea Party ties.

    In Manchester, Romney also previewed his jobs plan to be unveiled tomorrow in Nevada, saying that he will deliver a revised tax code, new trade deals, lower corporate taxes and a plan that would "bring regulations in line with other nations." When NBC News asked which countries he meant, Romney said he will provide details tomorrow.

    On trade, Romney vowed that his plan would be "cracking down on cheaters like China."

    In step with his usual stump speech, the former Massachusetts governor highlighted his private sector experience and slammed President Obama on job creation in his stump speech.

    Romney is now en route to South Carolina for Senator Jim DeMint's Palmetto Freedom Forum this afternoon.

  • Palin rails against Obama, still mum on 2012 plans

    Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

    Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin speaks during a Tea Party Express rally on Sept. 5, in Manchester, New Hampshire.

    By NBC's Alex Moe

    MANCHESTER, NH –- In a small park in the first-in-the-nation primary state, Sarah Palin spent her Labor Day addressing a Tea Party Express rally. She was critical of President Obama and, at times, it seemed Palin was building for a presidential announcement of her own.

    “We need people with a proven record of reform and who are willing to take on the tough challenges to run into danger, if you will, not away from it,” the former Alsaska governor said as the crowd broke out in chants of “you” and “run, Sarah, run.”

    But she was quick to back away and focused her speech on the Tea Party movement.

    “We need to grow this moment,” Palin told the crowd of more than 1,000 supporters in Veterans Memorial Park. “The Tea Party movement is bigger than any one person and it’s not about any one candidate, and thank goodness we don’t have any one single leader.” 

    "Now we're seeing more and more folks realize the strength of this grassroots movement and they're wanting to be involved," Palin said without giving specific names. "I say, `Right on, better late than never,' for some of these campaigns, especially."

    There were volunteers for Ron Paul and Hermain Cain working the crowd Monday and Mitt Romney headlined a Tea Party event Sunday night.

    She also echoed themes from her speech in Iowa earlier this weekend, where she talked more broadly about the nation’s problems with "crony capitalism," debt, and the “incompetent leadership” of the current president.

    “We are telling Washington that my kid is not your ATM,” Palin said. She had earlier told the crowd that it was because of them that the new governing class was sent to Washington, D.C., in 2010.

    “I felt I could relate a little to her and I thought the speech was wonderful,” Donna Parenteau, of Goffstown, NH told NBC News following the speech. “And I hope she runs for president.”

    But not everyone was convinced.

    “I didn’t really hear anything new,” Andy Bridge of Amherst, NH said. “I don’t think Sarah’s positions on budget and deficit issues are much different from the other big candidates or even from democrats,” he told NBC News. Bridge said he likes Governor Palin but will be supporting Ron Paul in the New Hampshire primary.

    Palin, NBC News was told, arrived in the Granite State Sunday after running a half-marathon in Iowa under her maiden name. She ate dinner at a local landmark in Manchester, The Puritan Backroom, where she and her husband, Todd, were greeted by a Marine and his bride who came out to take a picture during their wedding reception.

    After making speeches in both Iowa and New Hampshire, two early voting states, the question remains as the holiday weekend draws to a close, will she or won’t she? Sarah Palin has indicated her “drop dead” date for a possible presidential announcement is the end of September.

    After running a half-marathon in Iowa, Sarah Palin is in New Hampshire where she was met by an unexpected couple. NBC's Alex Moe also previews Palin's Tea Party speech in Manchester.

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