AP

President Bush surveying Hurricane Katrina damage from window of Air Force One, Wednesday, August 31, 2005.

Governors and the president all over learned the lessons of Katrina, but what about Washington? Will it learn the lessons of the debt-debate debacle? … Bernanke takes aim at the political system and Congress … Irene may have blown over, but here comes the posturing over jobs … But reality check on manufacturing … Perry plays the role of culture warrior in Iowa … How far does Ron Paul’s libertarianism go? Pretty far… Bachmann’s rhetoric’s in overdrive (God was trying to send politicians a message with the earthquake and hurricane, really?) … Powell not backing Obama yet … Huntsman’s in SC, Perry’s in OK.

*** The Katrina effect: The last 72 hours were evidence of the Katrina effect on everyone. Every governor watched the Kathleen Blanco model and said they’re going to do the opposite of that, which is why you saw every governor and major city mayor in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast trying to show they were on top of this (didn't know you could get monogrammed fleeces, by the way!). And President Obama, of course, saw what Bush did (stayed on vacation) and wanted to do the opposite. Hence, why he cut that vacation short. Nobody wanted to become a member of the infamous Katrina "B-Team": Blanco, Bush and Brownie. So naturally, the story is shifting a tad to, "Was Irene overhyped by the government, by the media." Bottom line: see the "B-Team" roster again and realize, there's no over-hyping on these stories. So while elected officials proved they could learn a lesson from Katrina (though that took the near-destruction of a city for that lesson to be learned), will the elected officials in Washington, from the president to Congress realize the damage that's been done by the summer's debt ceiling debacle.  

AP

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke at the Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole in Moran, Wyoming.

*** Bernanke blasts politics: To that point Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said the pitched debt-ceiling debate was to blame for disrupting markets “and probably the economy as well,” the New York Times writes. And, he said: “The country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions.” He placed the ball in Congress’ court because, “Most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank,” he said. He called once again called “for fiscal measures that focus on long-term reductions in the federal debt, while avoiding short-term cuts or tax increases that might impede recovery.” The Times makes this point: “Bernanke did not lay blame for the debt ceiling battle on either political party. But his recommendations for future fiscal policy— particularly the emphasis on the need for continued investment and reducing unemployment — generally hews closer to Mr. Obama’s position than to the views of Congressional Republicans.”

AP

Flooded highway in New Brunswick, NJ after Hurricane Irene.

*** Good night, Irene, hello posturing over jobs: The hurricane may have passed, but there’s going to be plenty of churning this fall (starting this week) about j-o-b-s. In the next two weeks, we are set to get at least three jobs plans – how specific they will be remains to be seen -- from Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney and President Obama. Huntsman leapfrogged Romney and Obama and will release his plan Wednesday from a metal manufacturer in New Hampshire, NBC’s Jo Ling Kent reports. Here’s what we’ve learned of Huntsman’s plan: He is going to talk about manufacturing jobs and the need for the U.S. to make things again. He’ll say he will make “Made in America” mean something. How does he propose getting there? First, he’ll say essentially that he would work to eliminate “regulations that are limiting the ability of job creators to enter the marketplace – EPA chief among them,” per an adviser. Because of the “economic environment and lack of certainty, entrepreneurs aren’t taking the risks necessary to get these products to market.”

*** The tax man: Bloomberg got a peek at what Huntsman’s tax plan would be and found three new wrinkles. He would: (1) “take away the deduction for interest on home mortgages”; (2) “treat capital gains as regular income”; and (3) “do the same with carried interest (that is, the profit share paid to hedge-fund managers and private-equity folks).” An opposing campaign called those essentially tax increases. Huntsman spokesman Tim Miller told Bloomberg – in full Grover Norquist language -- that Huntsman believes “any tax reform should be revenue neutral.”

*** Back to reality: But neither Huntsman nor Romney nor Obama is a pure messenger on this. Sure, Huntsman will talk about his record as Utah governor, that it was No. 1 in job creation vs. Romney’s Massachusetts, which was 47^th. But his own family’s company has outsourced jobs, employing more people in India and China than the U.S. Sure, Romney will talk about being the only person with “private-sector” experience. But Bain Capital doesn’t make “stuff,” it makes money for investors and it’s proud of it. And sure, Obama will talk about various jobs initiatives he’s tried, free-trade deals brokered, and wanting (hoping) for a renewed payroll tax cut, an infrastructure bank, and road-construction bill. But he's had to live down the pre-inaugural projection his economic team made that promised unemployment wouldn’t get above 8.5%, if a major stimulus packaged wasn't passed. Well, it has stayed there. Sure, it could be worse, but as the president himself has pointed out, try selling that to a frustrated public with many still looking for jobs.

*** Inertia: Can Obama get anything through Congress? The C.W. says no. Is the president willing to campaign for his plan this fall only to have it fail in Congress? In the past, the president has played pragmatist and simply tried to create legislation that could pass even if it compromised too much in the eyes of his base supporters. Does he need to propose something big that, perhaps, is D.O.A. with House Republicans? Is that good politics? Or are things so toxic with the public, that the idea of another season of gridlock and inability to compromise to pass SOMETHING is bad politics for everyone? Bottom line: the president has to propose something re: jobs and the economy, and propose something big and fight hard for it. As one smart person said to us over the weekend, the president ought to appear to be fighting as hard to create jobs as folks are looking for ones. (And, by the way, fighting hard to create jobs also means he starts looking like he's fighting hard to keep his). The president is heading back on the road, tomorrow with a stop in Minnesota to speak to the American Legion convention.

AP

Rick Perry speaking at the Polk County GOP summer picnic.

*** Culture Warrior: Speaking of jobs, Rick Perry, who does not have a jobs plan release date scheduled, was in Iowa over the weekend, hitting Obama for his economic policies, which he said have created “economic misery.” After thanking God for John Deere, he played the part of culture warrior: "Economic freedom comes from work and wages not welfare," Perry said, per the Ames Patch. "Since I was old enough to drive that tractor, I knew that the way to empowerment is not to empower government but to empower people."

*** The depths of Ron Paul’s libertarianism: Just how far does Ron Paul’s libertarianism go? Pretty far. He said FEMA isn’t necessary. Paul, in an interview with NBC’s Kent, dismissed FEMA as “a great contribution to deficit financing.” He added: "We should be like 1900; we should be like 1940, 1950, 1960," Paul said. "I live on the Gulf Coast; we deal with hurricanes all the time. Galveston is in my district.” But on Sept. 8, 1900, Galveston was hit with a massive hurricane that killed more than 6,000. And the sea wall that was built – and repaired after Ike -- was done so with federal dollars.

AP

Michele Bachmann at a rally in Sarasota, Florida.

*** Bachmann’s rhetoric in overdrive: Michele Bachmann, a member of Congress who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, over the weekend poked fun at the institution that pays her. "I know it's an oxymoron to say 'House of Representatives' and 'intelligence' in the same sentence," she said. Everyone is catching the "I’m not of Washington" campaign bug. Remember, Bachmann also said she only went to work FOR the IRS “because the first rule of war is ‘know your enemy.’” And is God really sending politicians a message with the recent earthquake and hurricane? So says Bachmann: “I don’t know how much God has to do to get the attention of the politicians,” she said, per NBC’s Jamie Novogrod. “We’ve had an earthquake, we’ve had a hurricane.” Bachmann added that God is demanding politicians “listen to the American people.”

AP

Colin Powell on Face the Nation, Sunday, August 28, 2011.

*** Powell not backing Obama yet: Most people will pay attention to Colin Powell’s swatting down of Dick Cheney, saying his book was full of “cheap shots,” and likening him to a “gossip columnist,” but maybe the most politically important thing that came out of the interview with the former Secretary of State on CBS’s Face the Nation, was that he hasn’t made up his mind on who he’s going to vote for in 2012. This is someone – a Republican -- who, at a key time, lent support to candidate Obama. “I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for," he said Sunday. "Just as was the case in 2008, I am going to watch the campaign unfold."

*** Decision 2012 Trail Mix: Huntsman is in Columbia, S.C. … Perry is in Tulsa, OK. … President Obama tomorrow heads to Minnesota to address the American Legion.

*** Monday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up: NBC’s Jamie Gangel with more from her exclusive interview with former Vice President Dick Cheney… latest news on Hurricane Irene... NBC’s Richard Engel with the latest news from Libya… Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed on jobs, the economy and recent criticism of President Obama by some black lawmakers… plus more 2012 news with the Washington Post’s Dan Balz, former Obama White House Communications Director Anita Dunn and former RNC Chair Michael Steele.

*** Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Savannah Guthrie fills in as host. The show will cover the storm fallout with reporters all over. Guests include David Rodhe, a former New York Times reporter kidnapped by the Taliban, who will talk about Liby

Countdown to NBC-Politico debate at Reagan Library: 11 days
Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 17 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 73 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 163 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

“President Barack Obama plans to name Alan Krueger, a labor economist and former Treasury official, to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said a White House official,” Bloomberg reports.

On the anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr’s “I have a dream speech,” John Lewis in the Washington Post writes what he thinks King would say to President Obama: “As a minister, never elected to any public office, Dr. King would tell this young leader that it is his moral obligation to use his power and influence to help those who have been left out and left behind.  He would encourage him to get out of Washington, to break away from handlers and advisers and go visit the people where they live. He would urge him to meet the coal miners of West Virginia; to shake the hands of the working poor in our large urban centers, juggling mutiple jobs to try to make ends meet; to go to the barrios of the Southwest; and to visit native Americans on their reservations.  He would urge Obama to feel the hurt and pain of those without work, of mothers and their children who go to bed hungry at night, of the families living in shelters after losing their homes, and of the elderly who chose between buying medicine and paying the rent. Dr. King would say that a Nobel Peace Prize winner can and must find a way to demonstrate that he is a man of peace, a man of love and non-violence.  He would say it is time to bring an end to war and get our young men and women out of harm’s way. Dr. King would assert without hesi­ta­tion that war is obsolete, that it destroys the very soul of a nation, that it wastes human lives and natural resources.” 

Jim Clyburn writes in The Hill: “Too often overlooked in Dr. King’s speeches and activities is his focus on jobs and opportunity.  Dr. King said he refused to believe the vault of opportunity in this great country is empty. Yet in 2011, the gap continues to grow wider between those who enjoy great wealth and those who struggle to get by with little thought of ever getting ahead. What more proof do we need that ‘human progress never rolls in on wheels of inevitability?’ Now is the time to rededicate ourselves to Dr. King’s work.”

The kicker quote to Maggie Haberman’s piece about Romney vs. Perry is this from Mark McKinnon: “The question is: Do GOP primary voters want to nominate Arthur Fonzarelli or Richie Cunningham?”

BACHMANN: Michele Bachmann says the U.S. should drill in the Everglades – as long as it doesn’t harm the environment: "The United States needs to be less dependent on foreign sources of energy and more dependent upon American resourcefulness. Whether that is in the Everglades, or whether that is in the eastern Gulf region, or whether that's in North Dakota, we need to go where the energy is," she said, per AP. "Of course it needs to be done responsibly. If we can't responsibly access energy in the Everglades then we shouldn't do it." Of course, spills happen… (Here’s video.)

HUNTSMAN: Jon Huntsman will make an announcement from the South Carolina statehouse in Columbia today from Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson, per NBC’s Ali Weinberg.

The New Hampshire Union-Leader takes a shot at Huntsman for not laying out what “shared sacrifice” means “specifically.” Huntsman said, “Over time, we’re going to figure that out.” The Union Leader: “Great. Before the New Hampshire primary would be nice, if it’s not too much trouble. In the meantime, Huntsman has given Republican voters another reason to question his ideological leanings. Appropriating class warfare rhetoric from the current redistributionist President is no way to assure Republicans that you’re playing on the same team.”

Huntsman sparred with a FOX host over global warming. The host said scientists are “making things up.”

PAUL: A week after turning 76 years old, 12-term Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul made five campaign stops in Iowa Saturday, NBC’s Anthony Terrell reports. In addition to hitting FEMA Friday, on Saturday, he took aim at entitlements: "If you mess up, don’t go crawling to the government for the government to go to your neighbor to say take care of me, because I didn’t do the right thing. You have to assume responsibility for your actions."

Paul also disagreed with an audience member who said she was concerned about the threat of “radical Islam.” Paul said, “I don’t see Islam as our enemy. … I see that motivation is occupation and those who hate us and would like to kill us, they are motivated by our invasion of their land, the support of their dictators that they hate. That is their main motivation. … motivated by intrusion.”

The Des Moines Register: “Specifically, Paul mentioned the 1991 U.S. intervention in Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, as key provocation to al-Qaeda’s Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. Osama Bin Ladin, who was born in Saudi Arabia, had said as much himself.”

PERRY: “Since Rick Perry joined the presidential race this month, his campaign entourage has included not just the standard array of political advisers and aides, but a squad of Texas law enforcement agents,” the Washington Post reports, adding, “How much is this ever-present phalanx of state policemen costing the taxpayers of Texas? They won’t know at least until after next year’s presidential election, thanks to a provision, tucked into a school finance bill in July, that will keep the governor’s travel records sealed for 18 months.”

Politico asks provocatively: “Is Rick Perry dumb?” “[C]onversations with both Perry admirers and critics reveal a more complicated assessment about the mind of a politician who has never lost an election—and ranks as the longest-serving governor in Texas history. He is not an ideas man. Perry hasn’t spent his political career marking up the latest Cato or Heritage white papers or reading policy-heavy books late into the night. Advisers and colleagues have informed much of his thinking over the years. … Perry may not be a wonk, but that doesn’t mean he’s a rube—a costly mistake many of his foes have made. … He’s a power politician and very canny one. And what seems to animate him is competition.”

“Governor Rick Perry of Texas autographed Bibles recently at a campaign stop in South Carolina, but he was really there to enlighten Republicans on the ‘Texas miracle,’ a creation story about jobs,” the Boston Globe writes, adding, “His critics, however, say too many of the jobs pay low wages and do not include benefits. Still, with the nation languishing in a painfully slow recovery, jobs are the heart of Perry’s economic platform and his best case for why he is the right candidate to take on President Obama.”

“Riding high in the polls, Gov. Rick Perry rode into Iowa on Saturday with tough talk on President Obama, the economy and foreign policy and a declaration that Social Security is not only a Ponzi scheme but a ‘monstrous lie’ for younger people,” the Houston Chronicle reports. He said, "It is a Ponzi scheme for these young people. The idea that they're working and paying into Social Security today, that the current program is going to be there for them, is a lie. It is a monstrous lie on this generation, and we can't do that to them."

From the New York Times and the Texas Tribune on Perry's 10th Amendment focus: "Though the governor has a claim to acting on these principles, he has come to publicly embrace states’ rights as a defining issue only in the past few years, a period when the 10th Amendment has been a rallying cry for many Tea Party supporters, libertarians and others who make up components of his party’s conservative base. And he has at times been inconsistent in applying those beliefs, drawing criticism from some states’ rights advocates and raising questions even among fellow Republicans about whether his stance is as much campaign positioning as a philosophical commitment."

Right before announcing his presidential bid, Perry tried to bill the federal government for the cost of incarcerating illegal immigrants in Texas.

Perry will hold nine fundraisers over the next four days as he gears up to face the scrutiny of a new frontrunner.

Over the weekend, Statesman columnist Ken Herman profiled Robert Morrow, the man largely responsible for peddling sordid rumors about Perry's past.

SANTORUM: He took aim at Ron Paul’s views on terrorism: In an e-mail to The Des Moines Register Sunday, Santorum wrote, “To imply that we were the catalyst of the attack on 9/11 disparages the memory of those who lost their lives on that tragic day and is an insult to who we are as a people. Congressman Paul’s understanding of the enemy and why they have attacked us is shockingly misguided.”

“House Republicans are planning votes for almost every week this fall in an effort to repeal environmental and labor requirements on business that they say have hampered job growth,” the Washington Post writes. “With everyone from President Obama to his Republican challengers in the 2012 campaign focusing on ways to spur economic growth, House Republicans will roll out plans Monday to fight regulations from the National Labor Relations Board, pollution rules handed down by the Environmental Protection Agency and regulations that affect health plans for small businesses. In addition, the lawmakers plan to urge a 20 percent tax deduction for small businesses.”

The L.A. Times notes that David Dreier could be a victim of redistricting: “David Dreier, who chairs the House Rules Committee, has a seat at the GOP leadership table, helping set his party's legislative and political agenda. He has hobnobbed with all kinds of figures, from Afghan President Hamid Karzai to Tommy Lasorda, in his spiffy Capitol office. He owns homes in Malibu, Rancho Mirage and his San Gabriel Valley district. And, as head of a panel that works to promote democracy abroad, he has traveled to such places as East Timor and Mongolia. He seems to have everything — except a district to run in next year.”

BEDFORD NH-- The Huntsman campaign is jumping ahead of the pack and unveiling a new jobs plan Wednesday at a metal manufacturer in Hudson, N.H., one week earlier than President Obama and Mitt Romney's planned announcements.

"Governor Huntsman is going to lay out an economic agenda that would turn our economy around and allow entrepreneurs to thrive and create
jobs just as he did in Utah," spokesman Michael Levoff told NBC News in an email today.

The former Utah governor, who most recently served as U.S. ambassador to China, has been met with criticism -- as have other GOP contenders -- for not having a jobs plan. Huntsman's plan to jump start the U.S. economy is likely be a central conversation piece as he heads into six days of campaign stops across New Hampshire, the state he has highlighted as his top priority in the upcoming primary season.

"He believes its time for us to make 'made in America' mean something again and a Granite State manufacturer is a great place to start," Levoff said of Huntsman.

Mitt Romney will announce his jobs plan on Sept. 6. President Obama indicated he will make a major speech sometime in September.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum railed against former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman’s statement that the Republican Party risks becoming the “anti-science” party. 

Speaking to a group of about 90 people at the Beacon Drive-In in Spartanburg, SC, a popular stop for presidential candidates, Santorum did not mention Gov. Huntsman by name but brought up his fellow candidate’s assertions, made on TV and via Twitter, that the Republican Party would have a “huge problem” if it became hostile to evolution and climate change.

“We are going through this debate right now by somebody who’s in the Republican field talking about people who believe in certain scientific theories, whether it’s global warming or evolution. And somehow or another if you believe that we are creatures of a loving God, that that is somehow anti-science,” Santorum said.  “It’s not anti-science. It’s an affirmation of what we view in the world. Which is, we see God."

Santorum was also asked to explain his 2004 endorsement of Sen. Arlen Specter, his fellow Pennsylvania Republican Senator who later became a Democrat, over former Rep. Pat Toomey, who defeated Specter six years later.

“If the worst thing you have to say about my record in 16 years in public life is that I endorsed my Republican colleague who I’d served with for 10 years in the Senate for re-election, then I think I’m in pretty good shape,” Santorum said.

He added that he was most concerned with conserving Republicans’ Senate majority and ensuring a clear path for President George W. Bush’s appointees to the Supreme Court, who all opposed abortion rights.

Santorum also criticized President Obama for announcing he would release a plan for job creation when he returned from his vacation on Martha’s Vineyard, which he cut short due to concerns over Hurricane Irene, according to a White House spokesman. 

“If it’s a great economic plan and it’s really going to get America moving, why do we have to wait until after your vacation to know what it is?” Santorum said. 

President Obama returns from vacation and Republican candidates raise money in some pretty nice places. But with the hurricane bearing down, which events will be cancelled?

Video edited by NBC's Natalie Cucchiara.

AP

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)

GILFORD, N.H. -- After a lunch speech today, Ron Paul slammed the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, and said that no national response to Hurricane Irene is necessary.

"We should be like 1900; we should be like 1940, 1950, 1960," Paul said. "I live on the Gulf Coast; we deal with hurricanes all the time. Galveston is in my district.

"There's no magic about FEMA. They're a great contribution to deficit financing and quite frankly they don't have a penny in the bank. We should be coordinated but coordinated voluntarily with the states," Paul told NBC News. "A state can decide. We don't need somebody in Washington."

AP

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R)

American Solutions for Winning the Future, the once vaunted political group founded by Newt Gingrich, has gone bellyup.

The Center for Public Integrity reports that the organization -- the centerpiece of an enterprise widely known as "Newt Inc." -- has quietly shut its doors and laid off its remianing six staffers, an apparent casualty of Gingrich's beleagered presidential drive.

American Solutions had raised $52 million in the past four years, using the funds to promote Gingrich's various policy positions and helping to keep its founder in the public eye. Its largest single donor: Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who kicked in $7 million.

Gingrich, who is lagging in the polls, had to cut off ties to American Solutions once he announced for president.

President Obama has decided to cut his vacation short by one day, choosing to fly back to Washington, D.C., tonight instead of Saturday morning according to Principal Deputy White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest.

AP

President Barack Obama (D), speaking from Martha's Vineyard, urges those on the East Coast to prepare for the worst with Hurricane Irene.

Earnest said the president “simply reached the conclusion it would be more prudent for him to be in Washington, D.C., at the White House, tonight."

Earnest also explained that the decision was not being made out of concern for the president's safety, but instead so that he can oversee the hurricane response from the White House.

The President has been vacationing in Martha’s Vineyard, MA, since Thursday, Aug. 18^th with his family. This was his third trip to the Vineyard since he became president.

GREENVILLE, S.C. -- Rick Santorum spoke to about 40 patrons at Tommy's Ham House, quite a smaller number than the hundreds who turned out to hear Rick Perry speak here last week.

That didn't stop Santorum from taking jabs at both Perry and Michele Bachmann on their views that states should determine same-sex marriage laws, and at Perry over his immigration policies in Texas. 

He said that while Bachmann and Perry might say it’s “fine with me” to New Hampshire or New York having same-sex marriage, Santorum said, “It’s not fine with me.” 

“To me,” he said, “we can’t have 50 marriage laws. You can’t be married in one state and not married in another state.”

He delivered a subtle jab at Bachmann after he was asked if he knew when Elvis died. “Last week, so I’ve heard,” he said. 

He said he was “disappointed” not to be invited to Jim DeMint’s Labor Day presidential forum, that “DeMint is supposed to be the common-sense guy,” not the “silly rules guy.”

He criticized Perry and former President George W. Bush for what he called lax immigration laws. Texas has the second-highest number of illegal immigrants in the country, according to Pew. Someone asked if he would “smoke” Perry out for his immigration stances, Santorum said he’d hear a lot about it.

“We know unfortunately the history of governors in Texas on the issue of immigration,” the former Pennsylvania senator said, adding, “I understand being governor of Texas is a tough thing. But you’ve got to stand up and defend -- being a senator from Pennsylvania is a tough thing. But you’ve got to stand up and defend your record.”

The day before President Obama is set to end his vacation on Martha’s Vineyard, he warned residents up and down the Eastern Seaboard that Hurricane Irene could be “historic.”

“All indications point to this being a historic hurricane,” the president said near his vacation home.

Today, on top of convening a conference call with the members of his emergency response team, the president spoke with the affected governors and mayors of major cities in the path of the storm.

For the last few days, the president has had multiple briefings on the status of the hurricane as well as FEMA preparations with the FEMA Director Craig Fugate, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Chief of Staff Bill Daley, and other officials.

The president stressed that if anyone is in the path of the hurricane they need to “take precautions now.”

 “Don't wait. Don't delay," he said. "We all hope for the best, but we have to be prepared for the worst."

As for FEMA preparations the president said, "FEMA has millions of liters of water, millions of meals and tens of thousands of cots and blankets, along with other supplies, pre- positioned along the eastern seaboard. And the American Red Cross has already begun preparing shelters in North Carolina and other states.”

And President Obama concluded with people taking responsibility for their own safety: “The federal government has spent the better part of last week working closely with officials in communities that could be affected by this storm to see to it that we are prepared. So now is the time for residents of these communities, in the hours that remain, to do the same. “

PORTSMOUTH, N.H. – Medicare is one of those third-rail issues -- and it polls very well.

But Ron Paul doesn’t see it so positively.

"I've never quite understood how forcing people into ‘ObamaCare’ is a whole lot different than forcing people into Medicare ... you literally are," he said this morning.

Paul also noted the importance of New Hampshire to his campaign.

"I think if we bomb in New Hampshire,” he said, “then we are not worth our salt. We have a lot of support, and it's growing."

Gov. Rick Perry is in Washington for former Amb. Peter Terpeluk's funeral.

Terpeluk was a Perry donor. In fact, at the bottom of Terpeluk's obituary on Wednesday read the following: "In lieu of flowers, donations may be made to Perry for President 2012."

Opening up a new front in its legal battles with the Obama administration, the state of Arizona on Thursday challenged the federal Voting Rights Act, prompting a swift response from Attorney General Eric Holder.

"The Voting Rights Act plays a vital role in our society by ensuring that every American has the right to vote and to have that vote counted,” Holder said. “The Department of Justice will vigorously defend the constitutionality of the Voting Rights Act in this case, as it has done successfully in the past.”

Arizona is challenging the law's requirement that the state seek Justice Department approval for any changes in how elections are conducted. Many states are subject to the law's pre-clearance requirement, generally to remedy past restrictions that discouraged minority voting.

"Arizona is still penalized for archaic violations that were corrected with the implementation of bilingual ballots prior to the 1974 elections," said the state's Attorney General Tom Horne.  He noted that in 1974, Arizona became the second state to elect a Hispanic governor.

The Voting Rights Act is unconstitutional, Horne said, "because it suspends all changes to state election law, however innocuous, until pre-clearance is given by the federal government."

The state objects to the requirement that it seek federal approval to dissolve school districts that have no students and annex them to adjoining districts. Such a change would eliminate elected school board positions from the dissolved districts.

"A statute as innocuous as this has to go through an approval process with the Justice Department,” reads the state’s lawsuit, filed Thursday in federal court in Washington, DC. “Such laws cannot be justified by any power delegated to the federal government by the Constitution.”

Vowing to fight the challenge, Holder said the provisions challenged in this case, including the pre-clearance requirement, "were reauthorized by Congress in 2006 with overwhelming and bipartisan support,” he said. “The Justice Department will continue to enforce the Voting Rights Act, including each of the provisions challenged today.”

Romney’s had a tough week, falling from his front-runner pedestal … The scrutiny’s coming for Perry – for taxes before he was against them, how many Texans don’t have access to health insurance? … Will any of it stick? It’s usually the Teflon Candidate that wins, but who will that be this year? … Hurricane Irene’s hurtling toward the East Coast -- and the way politicians handle disasters can show the best and worst of them.

*** Romney’s tough week: Last week, we wrote that Romney took a few nicks but no major blows in this campaign. Well, the first major blow came with a Gallup poll (and other robos NBC doesn’t report on) showing him being knocked off his front-runner perch -- and Rick Perry leading by double-digits. It led to a round of headlines like this one from his hometown paper The Boston Globe: “Mitt Romney is the Republican front-runner no longer.” On the one hand, being a front runner this early is not always a good thing – it didn’t work out so well for Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani. In track, it’s always good to be a few paces behind the leader and make your kick in the final stretch. (But what happens if you don’t have that kick?) The Romney camp says it’s sticking with its non-interventionist (against the GOP field) strategy -- for now, but as Reuters notes, “[P]ressure could mount for a more aggressive approach as his poll numbers worsen.” And to that point, here’s David Brooks: “It’s more likely that sooner or later Romney is going to have to prove his own toughness by taking Perry on directly” because it’s “unlikely” that Perry “passively” “implodes.” Still, it’s too early to panic, especially since there is no national primary, and Romney continues to hold a substantial lead in New Hampshire, a key early primary state. (Romney has real problems if you start to see him slip in the Granite State.) What this likely means, though, as we pointed out yesterday, we could be in for a LONG campaign.

AP

*** Playing into narratives: Romney played into his biggest weakness, that he’s inauthentic by backtracking on global warming and on Dodd-Frank. And he also played into the awkwardness meme. On Tuesday, Jill Lawrence wrapped some of Romney’s odder moments, comparing him to John Kerry, whom Lawrence covered in 2004. Kerry, she says, has been on her “mind as Mitt Romney, in his second presidential outing, keeps adding to his digital library of remarks that are insensitive, inappropriate or not nearly as funny to others as they are to him.” And his "I'm sorry it's my turn" town hall adds to it. How many other ways could he have handled that? The Romney campaign thinks moments like this show strength – that’s what they said after the Des Moines Register Soap Box “corporations are people” event. But they may have learned the wrong lesson from the Soap Box moment. The party may want a hard-charger, but is that who Romney really is? People still ultimately want their politicians to be likeable.

*** On the other hand: Romney still has a strong argument to make against Perry on electability. The Democratic Party in 2004 may have been angry and anti-war -- and we’ve made this point before – but even though Howard Dean looked like the front runner for a while, it came back to John Kerry in the end. (Yes, Kerry lost in the general, but most observers would argue, he gave Democrats the best chance.) A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Romney with a 28%-21% lead over Perry, but, more importantly, he holds a 51%-43% lead over President Obama. Perry is essentially tied with Obama 46%-45%. Bachmann trails (though within the margin of error) 46%-44%. And with Pew finding President Obama’s leadership ratings taking a hit, many Republicans are going to be looking for the person with the best chance of winning. The trap, however, for the GOP is thinking Obama’s SO vulnerable that ANYONE could beat him. (Though as David Brooks points out, at least one poll of GOP activists shows they think Perry’s the most electable.)

*** For Perry, here comes the scrutiny: And Perry won’t be able to coast. In addition to what he winds up saying – and how he says it -- on the trail (Bernanke 2?), there’s a long gubernatorial record to mine. You can bet that the national press corps – in addition to the very strong local press corps – will dig into everything from cronyism charges, the poor state of education (did you know fewer people graduate high school in Texas than anywhere in the country?), to executions (234 in the 11 years), and poverty to HPV and health care, not to mention creationism, climate change, secession, etc. And, on cue, today’s Texas Tribune top story headline: “Perry Supported Tax Hikes Before He Opposed Them.”

AP

*** Perry’s health-care record: Yesterday, Perry on Laura Ingraham’s show repeated his attack on Romney’s health-care plan in Massachusetts: "I think Mitt is finally recognizing that the Massachusetts healthcare plan he passed is a huge problem for him.” But Perry has his own health-care problem. Spokesman Mark Miner told the Texas Tribune yesterday: “Texas continues to pursue measures that will increase access and availability of health care coverage.” But the reality is Texas has a higher percentage of people without health insurance than any other state in the country, according to the U.S. Census. Almost one-in-four (24%) are without health insurance. That’s not exactly increasing “access and availability.”

*** In search of the Teflon Candidate? Despite all of these flaws, what matters most is, does any of it stick. Through history, often it’s the candidate who seem to be made of Teflon -- impervious to attacks -- that win. Barack Obama’s pastor, inexperience, and “bitter” comments got tons of coverage, but none of it seemed to stick with voters in 2008. Others have been dubbed the Teflon candidate, and look at some of the names: Bill Clinton (in 1992 by Haley Barbour in an op-ed in the New York Times), Ronald Reagan, even George W. Bush was called “a new and improved Teflon politician” by the Texas Tribune in 1999. In 2007-08, everything seemed to stick to Romney, kind of like John Kerry in 2004 general election. This time around, though, Romney seems to invoke more apathy than anything else, and the book is still out on Perry, who’s only been in two weeks.

AP

Heavy traffic heading inland from the New Jersey shore.

*** Disaster politics: The big news is Hurricane Irene barreling down the East Coast. And it’s a reminder that politicians – governors and mayors -- are often judged by their disaster-relief responses. They can either shine or be hurt politically. There are many historic examples of this, but we’ve had some very recent examples, too: New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s approval ratings plummeted in March after the record New York snowfall last winter; Chris Christie caught some bad press for being at Disney World during the snow. It will be interesting to see the differences in the approaches of governors, like Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Virginia’s Bob McDonnell, Maryland’s Martin O’Malley, Christie, and New York’s Andrew Cuomo.

*** Decision 2012 Trail Mix: Michele Bachmann heads to Florida for the start of a three-day swing. … Romney raises money at Lake Winnipesaukee, NH, where he owns a home. … Ron Paul makes two stops in New Hampshire … Rick Santorum campaigns in South Carolina. … President Obama remains in Martha’s Vineyard for vacation.

*** What to watch next week: President Obama returns to Washington … Bachmann continues her Florida campaigning … Jon Huntsman heads back to New Hampshire and will be David Gregory’s guest on Meet the Press Sunday live and in studio … Romney and Huntsman raise money in the Hamptons this weekend (Irene-permitting) … and Romney also raises money for his campaign in Martha’s Vineyard on the last day of President Obama’s vacation Saturday.

***Friday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up (with guest host Chris Cillizza): FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate on Hurricane Irene preparations… live reports from NBC News correspondents all along the East Coast… Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-MD) and Rep. Donna Edwards (D-MD) on what Maryland and other states are doing to prepare… plus 2012 news with one of us, Politico’s Jonathan Allen, Democratic pollster Fred Yang and msnbc’s Michelle Bernard.

***Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: With the hurricane brewing, it’s North Carolina Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, New Jersey Emergency Management spokesman Steven Jones, Norfolk, Va., City Manager Marcus Jones, and FEMA Deputy Administrator Rich Serino. Talking Libya, Hisham Melham of Al Arabiya TV will be on.

Countdown to NBC-Politico debate at Reagan Library: 12 days
Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 18 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 74 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 164 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

“For a president coping with a hyper-partisan Congress, a fix-resistent economy, a crack in the monument outside his living-room window, and a hurricane about to lash 60 million of his citizens, there were probably few better people for him to have dinner with last night,” the Boston Globe reports. “President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama dined at the tasty State Road restaurant on Martha’s Vineyard with Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick and state first lady Diane Patrick.”

Obama will need a support system, because Cornell West has been a thorn in his side, and does it again today with an op-ed in the New York Times: “The age of Obama has fallen tragically short of fulfilling King’s prophetic legacy. Instead of articulating a radical democratic vision and fighting for homeowners, workers and poor people in the form of mortgage relief, jobs and investment in education, infrastructure and housing, the administration gave us bailouts for banks, record profits for Wall Street and giant budget cuts on the backs of the vulnerable.”

The Washington Post: “From the start of his history-making tenure, the nation’s first black president took care never to be seen making policy or political decisions aimed solely or directly at black America. His position: He is the president of the whole country, focused on broad-based fixes to ‘lift all boats.’ The race-avoidance strategy served President Obama well, helping him attract support from many whites while also mobilizing African Americans energized by the powerful symbol of a black commander in chief. But a soaring jobless rate among African Americans and a newfound comfort by black lawmakers to criticize Obama’s economic policies are prompting the White House to recalibrate — and to focus more directly on the struggles of black America.” For example: “This week, the White House dispatched a top official to participate in a Congressional Black Caucus jobs forum in Miami that had been scheduled in part to pressure the White House.”

Bloomberg’s Jonathan Alter has Obama’s back: Tell me again why Barack Obama has been such a bad president? I’m not talking here about him as a tactician and communicator. We can agree that he has played some bad poker with Congress. And let’s stipulate that at the moment he’s falling short in the intangibles of leadership. … What, specifically, has he done wrong on policy? What, specifically, would you have done differently to create jobs? And what can any of the current Republican candidates offer that would be an improvement on the employment front? I’m not interested in hearing ad hominem attacks or about your generalized ‘disappointment.’”

An AP-GFK poll found Republicans are growing happier with their field. “[T]wo-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are pleased with the party's presidential field, compared with just half in June.”

BACHMANN: As she was making her case to voters at a town hall in Charleston, SC, Rep. Michele Bachmann got a surprise visit from that state’s governor, Nikki Haley, NBC’s Ali Weinberg reports. Haley, who said she was an “undecided” voter asked what Bachmann would do as president about the National Labor Relations Board/Boeing controversy. Bachmann said the first thing she would do is appoint “pro-growth” members of the board.

Bachmann also called for “every inch” of the U.S.-Mexico border to be protected by a fence – something with which Texas Gov. Rick Perry disagrees. She added that her stance “doesn’t mean anyone is anti-Hispanic. I’d be offended if anyone left this room thinking anyone here is anti-Hispanic.”

And she said this: “I think it’s a last chance election if you ask me,” she continued. “We need a miracle right now.”

Bachmann’s Florida tour begins today, NBC’s Jamie Novogrod points out. She has one event scheduled for the day -- at a sandwich shop in Jacksonville Beach, FL. On Saturday morning, she’ll hold a town hall in Poinciana, FL, and in the evening will give the address at an annual dinner held by the Florida Family Policy Council, a conservative group. On Sunday, Bachmann will address congregants at the Idlewild Baptist Church, in Lutz, FL, and later will attend a Sarasota GOP rally.

The Florida Independent, a left-leaning website, reports that the restaurant hosting Bachmann today is affiliated with the tea party. And, the restaurant -- Angie’s Subs -- has been in the news before. The Independent’s story links to an April 2010 report from a local television station, about a sign outside the restaurant reading: “A Bible Thumpin’ Gun Totin’ Capitalist Pig Owns This Joint.” That story got pickup from Fox, and the owner, Ed Malin, appeared on “Fox & Friends.”

CAIN: “Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain is worth between $2.9 million and $6.6 million, according to personal financial disclosure documents obtained and examined by The Daily Caller.”

HUNTSMAN: Huntsman did another media interview – his third this week – on PBS’s NewsHour, NBC’s Jo Ling Kent notes. In it, Huntsman said he "can put the numbers together to actually win in 2012” and this: "As president, I wouldn't hesitate to call on a sacrifice from all of our people, even those at the very highest end of the income spectrum," Huntsman said. "I'm not saying higher taxes, but there are contributions they can make too.”

PATAKI: Pataki for President? Maybe not. That balloon didn’t have much air in it. CNN reports that former New York Gov. George Pataki won’t run for president after all.

PERRY: “Rick Perry has signed Bob Haus, a sharp vet of three presidential campaigns, to provide strategic support for his Iowa effort, and he's also picked up another key member in the state -- Matt Gronewald, who was serving as executive director of the Iowa GOP,” GOP 12 writes.

Perry gets a 63%/12% fav/unfav among Republicans.

ROMNEY: This past week, Romney defended his beach home expansion, saying it was about the grandkids; opened up a potential general election Democratic avenue of attack on Social Security: “Republicans like myself aren’t going to cut Social Security or Medicare for people who are retired or near retirement,” which sounded a lot like Paul Ryan; defended his “corporations are people” remark again; and he waded back into hitting “sanctuary cities,” maintaining that he’s always been against them. It’s a potential issue for him to use against Rick Perry, who presides over a state with the second-highest number of illegal immigrants in the country. But Romney’s opponents (like Rudy Giuliani in 2007) would argue he’s not the best messenger on it, considering he did little to combat “sanctuary cities” when he was governor of Massachusetts.

The Boston Globe notes: “Conservative editorial pages have taken him to task for the Bay State’s health care overhaul, and voters have asked him on the stump about it, but few of his opponents so far have tried to capitalize on the issue directly.”

Romney yesterday introduced a debt clock at his town hall. Romney said he will be “going around the country” with it talking about debt, per NBC’s Garrett Haake. "President Obama, when he was Senator Obama, called the fact that George W. Bush added to the deficit, be called it Unpatriotic," Romney said. "I wonder what he would consider his own actions as president when so many people are out of work and when that number is racing around like it is."

Mitt Romney and Rick Perry really have been calling Donald Trump?

“New Hampshire’s top Republicans called on the state’s embattled GOP chairman, Jack Kimball, to quit yesterday,” the Boston Globe reports. “ ‘To ensure that all of the party’s energy and resources are solely focused on electing Republicans, we believe it is time to move beyond this serious distraction,’ said a joint statement released yesterday by US Senator Kelly Ayotte, US Representative Charles Bass, US Representative Frank Guinta, state House Speaker William O’Brien, and state Senate President Peter Bragdon. ‘Therefore, we call upon Jack to put the best interests of New Hampshire Republicans first and step aside as chairman of the party.’

“At a press conference, Kimball was defiant. He cast the division in the party’s leadership as one between establishment Republicans and the Tea Party movement, of which he is a member. … Critics contend that fund-raising has been lackluster and that divisions have been wider under Kimball’s tenure.”

In a presidential year, you have a Tea Party vs. New Hampshire fight erupting – that’s NOT good for the party. It’s also a sign of the difference between being an insurgent and having to do the hard nuts-and-bolts work of blocking and tackling, of raising money and maintaining a strong party infrastructure.

The latest AP-GFK poll shows a whopping 87% disapprove of Congress. Just 12% approve of Congress, its lowest rating in the poll.

Welcome back, Mr. President. President Obama is set to return from Martha’s Vineyard Sunday. And tomorrow House Speaker John Boehner will be sending a letter to the president tomorrow noting the number of planned Obama administration regulatory actions that it says have a significant impact on jobs and the economy. “The fact that the regulatory barrage is being expanded - not scaled back - appears to contradict the White House rhetoric this week,” said a Boehner aide. “In the letter, Boehner requests that President Obama identify for Congress which of these regulations have an estimated economic impact of more than $1 billion.” 

In addition, the speaker’s office is posting a blog called, "Obama Administration’s Own Public Data Shows Job-Crushing Regulatory Agenda Set to Increase, Not Decrease.” And so the fall campaign begins…

Boehner gets just a 29% approval rating in the AP-GFK poll.

And there’s this: “It is hard to find a tax cut that Congressional Republicans dislike. Unless it is a tax cut pushed by President Obama,” the New York Times writes. “In a turning of the tax policy tables, Democrats are increasingly hammering on Republicans who oppose the president’s proposal to extend for a year a payroll tax cut passed last year with bipartisan support.” And this quote: “All tax relief is not created equal,” said Brad Dayspring, a spokesman for Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House majority leader. “If the goal is job creation, Leader Cantor has long believed that there are better ways to grow the economy and create jobs than temporary payroll tax relief.”

Good luck to the “supercommittee.”

A week after he wrapped up his opening campaign swing through three primary states, Gov. Rick Perry will reportedly huddle Saturday with donors and evangelical supporters at a Fredericksburg, Texas ranch.

The event is to be held at the ranch of Jim Leininger, a San Antonio physician and school voucher advocate who has long been a financial backer of Perry's. A search of the Texas Tribune's campaign finance tracker shows that Leininger has given Perry over $200,000 in contributions since 2000.

Per the Dallas Morning News: "In some quarters, he's seen as saving Perry's political career with a last-minute infusion of $1.1 million to fuel Perry's 1998 victory as lieutenant governor. Perry was in a tight race against Democrat John Sharp when Leininger guaranteed the $1.1 million loan to Perry's campaign. That allowed a $1 million advertizing blitz and helped him squeak out a victory."

Other attendees at the meeting will include, the Morning News reports: Southern Baptist leader Paul Pressler, WallBuilders founder David Barton, and evangelist Rick Scarborough.

A spokesperson for Leininger said that he is traveling and is not available to comment to the press. A spokesman for the Perry campaign could not be reached for comment.

EXETER, NH -- The Romney campaign debuted two new attacks against President Obama this morning, with a side of alphabet soup.

In a release this morning, Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney rated the president's approach to the budget "Triple A" -- for arrogant, absent and alarming.

At a lunchtime town hall stop here, the critique expanded to the entire Obama presidency, with Romney telling an audience of around 75 people the Obama presidency would become known for three D's -- Debt, Downgrade and Delay.

The line drew applause from a supportive crowd in the town, where, party legend has it, the Republican Party was first named in 1853. Attendees questioned Romney on health care, the economy, and on his stated desire to have the Lockerbie bomber extradited by a new Libyan regime.

"I'd like to see him extradited and face justice in the United States, and whether that's a military tribunal or a criminal trial and where it's held... I mean Guantanamo always serves a useful purpose in settings like this," Romney told a questioner, who asked if bringing the bomber to U.S. soil would make Americans less safe.

Romney also made news with a question he did not answer: who among his colleagues currently running for president would he be most likely to choose as a running mate.

As he has in the past, Romney called such speculation presumptuous, but said that the most important quality he would consider in selecting a running mate if he got the chance, would be that the person selected be "unquestionably capable of becoming president." He alluded to a belief that he had more confidence in some of those running than others, but added that any one of the other candidates running for president would, in his view, be a better president than President Obama. He continued, saying the Republican Party has a deep bench of talented governors, senators and legislators, many of whom aren't running for president -- a line that drew a few laughs.

Also notable on the candidate's first of two campaign stops of the day, a new, more personal, opening anecdote. Romney, who has long been criticized by some as being unable to relate to regular folks and those hurt by the economy due to his personal wealth, told the story of how his father returned to the U.S. from Mexico to find work as a lath and plaster carpenter, before eventually rising to become governor of Michigan. He also explained that his wife's ancestors immigrated to the U.S. from Wales, where her grandfather had been a coal miner, and how his father-in-law became the first in their family to attend college.  

A George Pataki spokesman told NBC News that the former New York governor will not endorse Rick Perry during his appearance in Iowa Saturday, continuing to leave the door open to speculation he could soon announce a presidential bid.

Pataki and Perry will both be at the Polk County Picnic in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday. In response to a question about whether Pataki could use the event to endorse Perry, Pataki spokesman David Catalfamo said, "I can definitively put that rumor to rest."

The early makings of a Pataki presidential website was accidentally made public yesterday. It was scrubbed after media reports revealed its existence.

Dubbing the city to which he hopes to move if elected president a "seedy place," Gov. Rick Perry hit back Thursday at Republican critics who say he brings a hotheaded "Wild West" attitude to the presidential field.

"I speak plainly. I call it like I see it," the Texas governor said on the Laura Ingraham radio show. "I am not an establishment figure. Never have been, and frankly I don't want to be. I dislike Washington. I think it's a seedy place."

"Frankly, our country is in trouble," Perry continued. "And I don't have the privilege of sitting on the sidelines and watching our country be destroyed economically by a president who has been conducting an experiment on the American economy for the last two and a half years."

The third-term Texas pol also addressed his relationship with his Texas predecessor, George W. Bush, saying that he has "great respect" for the Bush family but that there are important distinctions between himself and the 43rd president of the United States.

"I'm not George Bush. I don't try to be," he said, quickly adding, "I respect him, I consider him a friend."

During the interview, Perry also repeated a previous slap at rival Mitt Romney's record on health care, calling the 2006 Massachusetts law that Romney supported "a huge problem" for the former governor.

"I think Mitt is finally recognizing that the Massachusetts healthcare plan he passed is a huge problem for him," Perry said, going on to note that the Bay State legislation served as a model for Obama's health care legislation -- which he called "an absolute debacle."

Primary calendar chaos?... Although it’s still fluid, chances are that the primary season will start in January (or earlier)… And how long will it last?... A final calendar point to chew on: The post-IA/NH/SC line-up could benefit Perry, since so many of the contests take place in the South… Is Perry the new GOP front-runner?... It’s official: Perry will participate in his first debate on Sept. 7… And Cheney’s new book (and his exclusive interview with NBC News).

AP

*** Calendar chaos? The GOP presidential field is mostly set, the future debates (including our NBC-Politico one on Sept. 7) are scheduled, and the full-fledged campaigning has already begun. The one thing we’re missing: an actual primary calendar. According to Republicans monitoring this subject, there are two different timeline scenarios. The first is the RNC-sanctioned February start date: Iowa goes Feb. 6, New Hampshire Feb. 14, Nevada, Feb. 18, South Carolina Feb. 28, and Super Tuesday is March 6. The second is the more chaotic January (or even December) start date: States like Arizona and Florida -- risking losing half their delegates and other penalties -- set their primaries early, pushing Iowa, New Hampshire, and other states into January or earlier. Which scenario is more likely? Although this remains a fluid situation, one plugged-in Republican eyeing the calendar process for one of the campaigns says there’s a “99%” chance it begins in early January instead of February. So start making your New Year’s Eve plans in Des Moines now. Or at least buy refundable air tickets.

*** So when will we know? Per NBC’s John Bailey, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) must announce the date of her state’s primary at least 150 days in advance. So if she wants to set it on Jan. 31, which seems to be the case, the announcement has to come on or before Sept. 2. Meanwhile, Florida’s committee to select a primary date has until Oct. 1 to determine a date. (Oct. 1 is the RNC’s deadline for a state changing its primary/caucus date.)

AP

*** And how long will it last? There are also two scenarios for how long the primary season will last. One is the early knockout -- like in ‘04 -- when John Kerry essentially wrapped up the Democratic nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire. And two is the long, bloody battle -- a la ’08 -- when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton duked it out until June. Given that the earlier states will award their delegates proportionally and given that the later states (like California in June) can be winner-take-all, there’s an increasingly likelihood that the GOP nomination fight won't mathematically end until May or June. That could either help the eventual nominee (Obama's long primary season helped put Indiana and North Carolina into play), or hurt him/her (with just five months to focus on the general election against a sitting president).

AP

*** A final calendar point to chew on: You could argue that the still-fluid primary calendar might benefit Perry, if the race (as expected) turns into a Romney-vs.-Perry battle. Consider that many of the post-Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina contests will take place in the South. For instance, Super Tuesday on March 6 will feature Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. (It also features Massachusetts and Vermont.) The next week brings us primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. Then on March 24 comes Louisiana. And to see Perry's strength in the South, just look at the latest Gallup poll, which shows him leading Romney in the South, 39% to 12%. The good news for Romney: He has the money advantage (which helps in a long race) and these states will award delegates proportionally (which allows him to rack up delegates even if he loses the state). But you can see how important Florida -- whenever that primary occurs -- will be to Romney and his momentum heading into those Super Tuesday (and beyond) states.

AP

*** Perry the new GOP front-runner? As mentioned above, a new Gallup poll shows Perry leading Romney -- not only in the South, but also nationally. In Gallup’s first national GOP trial heat since Perry officially entered the race, the Texas governor gets support from 29% of Republican voters and GOP-leaning independents, while Romney is at 17%, Paul at 13%, and Bachmann is at 10%; no other Republican presidential candidate gets more than 4%. In last month’s Gallup poll, Romney led Perry, 23%-18%. So heading into Labor Day, there’s a case to be made that Perry -- not Romney -- is now your GOP presidential front-runner. In New Hampshire yesterday, Romney was asked about the new poll position. “Look, I'm following the strategy that I've had and that we've laid out from the very beginning.  And the field is still fluid.  There are going to be potentially other candidates,” he said, per NBC’s Morgan Parmet. 

*** And he makes his first debate appearance on Sept. 7: By the way, it’s now official: The Sept. 7 NBC-Politico debate will be the first that Perry attends. Per a release, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation announced that these eight Republicans will participate in the debate: Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Perry, Romney, and Santorum. The debate, which will be moderated by NBC’s Brian Williams and Politico’s John Harris, will take place at the Reagan Library’s Air Force One Pavilion beginning at 8:00 pm ET.

*** On the 2012 trail: Perry is in Colorado… Romney continues to campaign in New Hampshire… Gingrich and Paul are also in the Granite State… And Bachmann and Santorum stump in South Carolina.

*** Cheney speaks: The other news today is the publication of former Vice President Dick Cheney’s new book. In an exclusive interview with NBC’s Jamie Gangel that partially aired on “TODAY,” Cheney defended waterboarding (“I would strongly support using it again if circumstances arose where we had a high-value detainee and that was the only way we could get him to talk”), and he doesn’t believe that former President Bush will feel betrayed by the book (“I don't know why he should”). The New York Times, which got its hands on Cheney’s book, writes: “Former Vice President Dick Cheney says in a new memoir that he urged President George W. Bush to bomb a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site in June 2007. But, he wrote, Mr. Bush opted for a diplomatic approach after other advisers — still stinging over ‘the bad intelligence we had received about Iraq’s stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction’ — expressed misgivings.”

*** Thursday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up (with guest host Chris Cillizza): NBC’s Jamie Gangel on her interview with Cheney… GOP strategist Brian Jones and Newsweek/Daily Beast’s Lois Romano on former Gov. Jon Huntsman’s strategy against the rest of the GOP field… One of us (!!!) on Gov. Rick Perry’s poll surge and the developing GOP primary calendar… The latest news on Hurricane Irene, Libya and the resignation of Apple’s Steve Jobs… And more 2012 with Roll Call’s Shira Toeplitz, the Rothenberg Report’s Nathan Gonzales and the Washington Post’s Nia-Malika Henderson.

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews former Biden chief of staff Ron Klain, former Obama White House spokesman Bill Burton, and Financial Times’ Gillian Tett.

Countdown to NBC-Politico debate at Reagan Library: 13 days
Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 75 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 165 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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