The New York Times: “The downgrade of the United States government’s credit rating by Standard & Poor’s is almost sure to increase pressure on a new Congressional ‘supercommittee’ to mute ideological disagreements and recommend a package of deficit-reduction measures far exceeding its original goal of at least $1.5 trillion, lawmakers said Sunday.”

The Washington Post writes about the origins of the debt showdown. “The frantic showdown that followed, bringing the nation to the brink of default, looked like the haphazard escalation of a typical partisan standoff. It wasn’t.”

“It was the natural outgrowth of a years-long effort by GOP recruiters to build a new majority and reverse the party’s fortunes. That effort began before the economy collapsed in 2008, before the government bailouts that followed, before the tea party rose in response to push its anti-tax, anti-spending message.”

Today, the Democratic National Committee is announcing a campaign -- “Extreme Aims: Wrong for Seniors, Wrong for the Middle Class” – in the build-up to Saturday’s Ames Straw Poll.  “When it comes to the GOP presidential candidates and what America will hear from them in Ames this week, they have extreme aims to please the far-right, Tea Party wing of their party and they are following the extreme agenda of Congressional Republicans instead of leading,” the DNC says in an email. “All this while our country’s future hangs in the balance.”

The New Hampshire Democratic Party gets into the act, too. "Whether it is the candidates' Duck, Dodge, Dismantle proposal, the GOP budget that ends Medicare as we know it or their insistence on keeping tax cuts for corporate jet owners while shifting the burden to working families and seniors, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty are representing an agenda that is far outside the mainstream," NH Dem Party Chairman Ray Buckley plans to say in a memo to reporters. "Most egregiously, almost without exception the GOP presidential candidates would have allowed America to default on its obligations and send our economy into calamity rather than upset their Tea Party base."

BACHMANN: Newsweek releases Monday its cover story on Bachmann, entitled “Bachmann: Tea Party Queen.” 

The Des Moines Register files a story on Bachmann’s visit Sunday to the First Church of the Nazarene, in Des Moines, where Bachmann spoke about the origins of her faith and her life in politics.  The story focuses on Bachmann’s statement that “questionable materials” her foster children brought home from school pushed her into a five-year fight against federal control of education – which she blamed for “putting politically correct attitudes, values and beliefs into schools.” 

And, the New York Times ran a story Saturday that describes an element of theater at Bachmann events that distinguish her campaign events from others.

HUNTSMAN: Per NBC’s Ali Weinberg, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman yesterday urged a member of the audience at GOP Rep. Tim Scott’s presidential town hall in Charleston, SC, not to label him as a moderate. Before she asked her question, Debbie Jones first asked the audience to raise their hands if they were “Tea Party people.” (The town hall was co-sponsored by several local Tea Party groups). Most of the audience of approximately 200 people raised their hands.

Then Jones asked, “How many of you want somebody to run for president who is a moderate?” Only a few members of the audience raised their hands at that question. “Thank you,” she said before sitting down, acknowledging the disparity in the hands raised.

“Let me just tell you one thing,” Huntsman answered to the challenge. “I would point you to what the Wall Street Journal said recently. You know, everybody likes to put a label on somebody. I think that’s unfair. All I ask is that you look at my record.” When asked by NBC News after the town hall how he would appeal to Tea Party voters in the state, Huntsman simply said, “Just by being who I am.”

PAUL: The Paul campaign held a tele-town hall last night with supporters on the upcoming Ames Straw Poll, NBC’s Anthony Terrell reports. The campaign often reminded callers there were air-conditioned buses available with bathrooms on “nice charter buses,” and said there would be golf carts available from the parking lot to the tent for voters who need assistance. Congressman Paul then got on the call, telling supporters he will have 25 family members attending the straw poll, including his son, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul. The presidential candidate, Terrell adds, explained how important the straw poll was for candidates “who don’t have $100 million.” He stressed the campaign strategy was to run this, “as if it’s a small congressional race,” not a national campaign. “It’s an Iowa campaign.”

PERRY: The Texas governor got a wildly enthusiastic response from the tens of thousands who attended “The Response,” but he steered away from politics during his address to the crowd.

The Washington Post reads the prayer event as a net positive for the governor.

The Texas Tribune offers a good analysis of why Perry's right flank is exposed in the GOP primary.

The Statesman: "For Perry, a fiscal conservative who has called on the federal government to "stop spending all the money," the issue of farm subsidies could be delicate if he enters the presidential race, especially in the Iowa caucuses."

ROMNEY: The Los Angeles Times reports that this week could see Mitt Romney's shaky front-runner perch challenged for the first time. With Romney's return to the campaign trail, a major debate in Iowa, and a straw poll winner to emerge (who likely won't be named Mitt). there could be a whole new dynamic in the race by week's end.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post editorial page takes Romney to task for the candidate's handling of the mysterious donor to his PAC who was revealed to be a former Bain executive over the weekend. The Post points out that, in 2008, then-candidate Romney criticized exactly this type of political giving: "'Political spending has been driven into secret corners, and more power and influence has been handed to hidden special interests,' the candidate complained. Surely that candidate, one Mitt Romney, would be deeply concerned about W Spann."

SANTORUM: Former Sen. Rick Santorum arrived in rural Algona, IA for a house party attended by 50 people yesterday afternoon, NBC’s Jo Ling Kent notes. Many of the participants signed up for a free Santorum bus and meal for the Ames Straw Poll next Sat. During his remarks, Santorum called the U.S. State Department "a cess pool" populated by people "who get co-opted by the countries they're in and forget who they're there for." Santorum said, "I'd get rid of most of them"

Santorum also answered a question on gay marriage from a volunteer military chaplain who opposes it and supports “Don't Ask, Don't Tell,” and did not want to counsel gay service members. Santorum said that chaplain should not have to do anything "against his religion" as chaplain, because "homosexuality is wrong."

NBC’s Garrett Haake, Carrie Dann, Jamie Novogrod, Jo Ling Kent, Ali Weinberg, and Anthony Terrell contributed.

BARRINGTON, NH -- As Michele Bachmann reminded Iowans today, the Ames Straw Poll is just seven days away, but underdog GOP presidential candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson is skipping it for what he said is a tougher challenge: a 100-mile mountain bike race in
Colorado.

Johnson is comfortable about avoiding Iowa next week, telling NBC News that he believes he will still be able to leave his candidates in the
dust come the New Hampshire primary. Johnson, who supports government posting calorie counts on all foods bought and sold and likes First Lady Michelle Obama's healthy eating campaign, says he is leading by example by putting fitness first.

"You can say I'm an extreme athlete," Johnson said here at a Tea Party picnic in New Hampshire this afternoon. "Nobody else is going to have
more energy than I am [on the campaign trail] and that's factual here."

"Yes, I'm low in the polls, but statistically I am the least known Republican," he added. "So, if all Republicans knew who I was and my poll numbers were the way that they are, I think I'd drop out."

Meanwhile, former Louisiana Gov. and four-term Congressman Buddy Roemer roamed the picnic shaking hands and asking for small donations
to achieve an ambitious fundraising goal. He proclaimed to voters he aims to raise $1 million through donations no larger than $100, in an
effort to be "free to lead" without obligations to major donors or super PACs.

"I know Washington is institutionally corrupt," Roemer said to picnickers.

"The politicians laugh... They say 'he can't do it,' but I do it every time," he said, citing his past campaigns.

Today, in the sweltering heat, Roemer managed to get one $100 check to add to the $100,000 he has already raised. Earlier this morning Roemer, who recently moved into an apartment in Manchester, campaigned at eight diners in Derry. Roemer has been out of public office for 20 years.

HOUSTON -- If Texas Gov. Rick Perry runs for president, the type of crowd that attends a seven-hour prayer rally in a football stadium would not be disappointed.

Held in the venue where the Houston Texans play, more than 25,000 people here attended "The Response," an event that was part prayer service, part Christian rock concert, and part marathon pep rally for Jesus Christ.

When Perry stepped onto the stage, the broadly smiling governor was received with a standing ovation

But Perry, a Republican who is widely considered to be planning a 2012 run, steered away from politics during his 10-minute remarks and scripture reading, even chuckling that God is "wise enough not to be affiliated with any political party."

Speaking of "a personal God," Perry said: "His agenda is not a political agenda, his agenda is a salvation agenda."

After reading several verses of scripture, Perry laid out his concerns about the state of the country. "Our heart breaks for America," he said. "We see discord at home. We see fear in the marketplace. We see anger in the halls of government."

Perry added a prayer for the special forces members who were killed in last night's helicopter crash in Afghanistan.

And the Texas governor asked the thousands in attendance to pray for the man he might hope to replace in the White House: President Obama. "In these difficult times, father, we pray for our president, that you would impart your wisdom upon him, that you would guard his family."

A former Bain Capital executive, Edward Conard, has come forward as the donor who gave a mysterious $1 million dollar donation to a political committee supporting Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, Restore Our Future.

Bain Capital is the private-equity firm that Romney co-founded.

Restore our Future spokesperson Brittany Gross confirmed this morning that Conard is the man behind the W Spann LLC donation, reported first by NBC News.

“We’re glad Mr. Conard has chosen to come forward putting an end to this supposed controversy." Gross said. "Restore our Future will amend our report per Mr. Conard’s request to reflect him as the donor."

Conard released a statement to Politico last night revealing his identity. "I am the individual who formed and funded W Spann LLC," Conard said. "I authorized W Spann LLC’s contribution to Restore Our Future PAC." More: 

"I did so after consulting prominent legal counsel regarding the transaction, and based on my understanding that the contribution would comply with applicable laws," he said. "To address questions raised by the media concerning the contribution, I will request that Restore Our Future PAC amend its public reports to disclose me as the donor associated with this contribution."

And then there was this additional bad news early Saturday morning: 31 Americans -- including more than 20 Navy SEALs -- were killed when Taliban forces shot down their helicopter in Afghanistan.

A senior defense official says that the team was "on their way to a mission" when their helicopter was shot down in Wardak Province this morning. The official was not sure whether they had just taken off, or if they had already been in the air for several minutes when they went down though.

"It appears that it was shot down," the official said, adding that it is obviously still being investigated.

The official said that the military does "not have any indication that it was anything other than" hostile fire that brought down the helicopter.

The casualty breakdown:
31 Americans killed, including:
-- as many as 20 Navy SEALS
-- five Army air crew
-- several U.S. airmen
-- one dog

8 Afghans killed:
-- seven Afghan troops
- one Afghan interpreter (civilian)

The Associated Press reports that the SEALs were part of SEAL Team Six, the unit that carried out the raid killing Osama bin Laden, but the AP adds that none of those killed in the crash "is believed to have been part of the SEALs mission that killed bin Laden."

President Obama issued this statement on the tragedy in Afghanistan:

My thoughts and prayers go out to the families and loved ones of the Americans who were lost earlier today in Afghanistan. Their deaths are a reminder of the extraordinary sacrifices made by the men and women of our military and their families, including all who have served in Afghanistan. We will draw inspiration from their lives, and continue the work of securing our country and standing up for the values that they embodied.  We also mourn the Afghans who died alongside our troops in pursuit of a more peaceful and hopeful future for their country. At this difficult hour, all Americans are united in support of our men and women in uniform who serve so that we can live in freedom and security.

If the Dow's 500-point drop on Thursday, the suggestion of a global economic slowdown, and the grueling debate over the debt ceiling weren't enough, Friday night brought us more bad news, courtesy of S&P.

The New York Times:

Standard & Poor’s removed the United States government from its list of risk-free borrowers for the first time on Friday night, a downgrade that is freighted with symbolic significance but carries few clear financial implications.

The company, one of three major agencies that offer advice to investors in debt securities, said it was cutting its rating of long-term federal debt to AA+, one notch below the top grade of AAA. It described the decision as a judgment about the nation’s leaders, writing that “the gulf between the political parties” had reduced its confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances.

The Obama White House reacted to the news with this statement: "Over the past weeks and months the president repeatedly called for substantial deficit reduction through both long-term entitlement changes and revenues through tax reform, with additional measures to spark jobs and strengthen our recovery," said White House Press Secretary Jay Carney in a statement. "That is why the president pushed for a grand bargain that would include all of these elements and require compromise and cooperation from all sides."

More Carney: "Over the coming weeks the president will strongly encourage the bipartisan fiscal committee as well as all members of Congress to put our common commitment to a stronger recovery and a sounder long-term fiscal path above our political and ideological differences."

Meanwhile, the GOP presidential candidates used the downgrade to blame President Obama.

Said Mitt Romney in a statement: "America’s creditworthiness just became the latest casualty in President Obama’s failed record of leadership on the economy. Standard & Poor’s rating downgrade is a deeply troubling indicator of our country’s decline under President Obama."

Jon Huntsman added: "Out-of-control spending and a lack of leadership in Washington have resulted in President Obama presiding over the first downgrade of the United States credit rating in our history."

And here was Michele Bachmann's statement: "President Obama is destroying the foundations of the U.S. economy one beam at a time. I call on the president to seek the immediate resignation of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and to submit a plan with list of cuts to balance the budget this year, turn our economy around and put Americans back to work."

But S&P's decision to downgrade the U.S. debt was controversial. As the New York Times' Paul Krugman writes:

On one hand, there is a case to be made that the madness of the right has made America a fundamentally unsound nation. And yes, it is the madness of the right: if not for the extremism of anti-tax Republicans, we would have no trouble reaching an agreement that would ensure long-run solvency.

On the other hand, it’s hard to think of anyone less qualified to pass judgment on America than the rating agencies. The people who rated subprime-backed securities are now declaring that they are the judges of fiscal policy? Really?

Just to make it perfect, it turns out that S&P got the math wrong by $2 trillion, and after much discussion conceded the point — then went ahead with the downgrade.

Rick Perry holds a prayer summit for the country, the pre-Ames debate, and with Andy on vacation, we hold auditions for his job.

Edited by Domenico Montanaro

Special thanks to the Mark Murray, Alicia Budich, and John Bailey for lending their exceptional acting abilities.

NASHUA, NH -- In the last day of his week-long swing through New Hampshire, Jon Huntsman jabbed the Romney campaign, calling for accountability in campaign fundraising in response to the report about a mysterious $1 million donation to a pro-Romney Super PAC.

"What is important on the fundraising is transparency, knowing where the money comes from and having a reporting requirement allows the voters of this country to know who is contributing, when they contributed," he told reporters.

Also on his swing through the Granite State, Huntsman declared with a smile, "We are going to win in New Hampshire. I just want you all to be the first to know."

Huntsman has one more public event in New Hampshire before heading to South Carolina tomorrow. He has shifted into high gear getting ready for next Thursday's Republican debate in Iowa -- which will be his first as a presidential candidate.

"We are preparing for the debate; we are thinking through the issues," Huntsman said. "I am staying up at night anticipating what might come our way."
 
Huntsman said he is not using stand-ins for the other candidates in his rehearsals.

In a speech to business leaders at the Nashua Chamber of Commerce today (ranging from local banks to the local branch of Five Guys Burgers), Huntsman claimed that he never thought about elected office before he ran for Utah governor.
 
"I never thought I'd run for public office. I used to make fun of people running for office!" he said to gales of laughter.

"Who around this table would be willing to run for office today?" Huntsman asked the room.

No one raised their hand, citing inefficiencies of government. Huntsman said, "See, now that's a problem."

AP

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) is strongly considering a bid for president.

Spend a few days hanging out with political operatives in Austin and you'll come away with two things: A list of restaurant recommendations as long as the margarita menu at Guero's Taco Bar, and a hard time arguing that Gov. Rick Perry won't be the Republican Party's presidential nominee.

In The State Which Must Not Be Messed With, the governor's political skills are the stuff of legend, and the economic robustness over which he has presided is the subject of a steady stream of brags by his fans nationwide. Friends and foes allies alike are impressed with Perry's deft negotiation of the Tea Party and business wings of the GOP. He's a farmer's son who spent a decade building a huge political apparatus in a state so vast that its tourism office advertises that "It's like another country."

And every indication -- including Saturday’s prayer and fasting event in Houston -- suggests he's getting ready to take his Texas show on the road.

"Rick Perry is the best politician to come out of Texas since LBJ," says Jason Stanford, a Democratic political consultant who managed Perry opponent Chris Bell's gubernatorial campaign in 2006. "His abilities are probably on par with Obama's."

Although Perry's announcement is still pending as he gauges financial support from potential donors, few Texans in the know doubt that Perry will jump in. (As local writer Harvey Kronberg said, he is "not exploring a presidential run, he is assembling one.") In fact, a more common parlor game among Republicans is speculating about who may fill his shoes if he packs his cowboy boots and heads for Washington.

That's a scenario that's not hard for many Texans to imagine -- and not because they're all drinking the tequila-spiked Kool-Aid. People here are just used to seeing Rick Perry win.

Their sense of the governor's strength is particularly remarkable because the longest-serving governor in Texas history is hardly universally beloved even within his own party. The political landscape's storied division into hostile fiefdoms --Bush, Paul, Hutchison, Perry -- may well be overblown, but somehow past loyalties never go unmentioned in the statehouse halls or the bars on Congress Avenue.  Although the Texas constitution makes the governor's authority fairly weak on paper, Perry has amassed remarkable power throughout his decade-long tenure, in part by appointing allies to posts throughout the state. Those in both parties who have worked against him often add that political revenge -- or at least the threat of it -- can be his weapon of choice when anyone stands in the way of his success.

Still, past enemies in Texas often shrug when asked to lay out a clean line of attack against Perry that would drive GOP primary voters en masse into the arms of a Mitt Romney or a Michele Bachmann.

The man has never lost an election, they say, and most things have already been tried.

Opponents have run against Perry's 2002 transportation plan, a system of new toll roads and railways that would have required a massive land acquisition by the state and could have increased consumer costs. They've tried to paint him as a wine-drinking career politician who has reaped a small fortune from political cronies. They've  slammed him for mandating that young girls receive a cervical-cancer vaccine unless their parents opted out. And the governor became a late-night comedy laugh line when he appeared to flirt with secessionism at a Tea Party rally.

After all that, his last really close race was in 1998.

Chief Perry strategist Dave Carney, a man who has worked with Perry for over a decade, doesn't see chinks in his potential-candidate's gubernatorial armor, either. Asked what items on Perry's long record might keep him up at night as a strategist anticipating attacks by political opponents on a national scale, Carney replies bluntly. "Nothing."

Perry’s strengths: His economic record, conservatism, and luck
If and when he gets into the race, it'll be under the banner of his economic record. On Perry's watch, Texas accounted for 37 percent of the jobs created nationwide since the economic recovery began. Over the past decade -- nine years of which were under Perry's tenure -- the state surpassed New York as the nation’s second-largest economy and nipped at the heels of No. 1 California.

(Of course, not every "Help wanted" sign can be traced to Perry policies; the Lone Star State gets a big boost from its geography and oil reserves, and many of its pro-business laws date back to the Ann Richards era. But the tort reform and tax laws Perry signed into law appear to have lured new companies to the state, and -- at least so far
-- he has gained wide recognition for the state's successes, whether he deserves all the credit or not.)

In addition to whatever combination of policy brilliance and good fortune yielded "the Texas miracle," he's in good standing with must-get evangelical, pro-military, and gun rights voters who turn out heavily in GOP primaries. He's a deeply religious man who once took a rainstorm as a divine sign not to leave his family's farm for a new job as a commercial pilot. An Air Force captain who flew C-130's in the 1970s, he would be the only military veteran in the race. He famously shot a coyote while jogging -- an anecdote that signals Rick Perry is the kind of guy who carries a .380 pistol with a laser sight while he's in gym shorts. As many around the country poked fun at him as a trigger-happy Yosemite Sam, a limited edition "Coyote Special" created by the firearm's maker flew off the shelves.

He's also been lucky, a trait that has continued with the development of the 2012 field. Perry’s opening has been paved, in part, by the absence of other big names like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, as well as Newt Gingrich’s campaign implosion (which allowed Carney, who had been working for Gingrich, to return to the Perry orbit). A recent Gallup poll of Republican voters indicated that Perry would debut in second place nationally if he decided to run, beating out Tea Party-beloved Rep. Michele Bachmann and barely trailing presumed front-runner Mitt Romney.

With his ability to mobilize the conservative base (like Bachmann can) and to tap into big business interests (like Romney can), Perry would likely shake loose supporters from each potential rival's base.

"He's a Frankenstein of the best qualities of both of them," said GOP consultant and Texas native Matt Mackowiak, who worked for Perry opponent Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 gubernatorial contest. "That's exactly what many primary voters were looking for."

"People are looking at Michele Bachmann, and saying: 'I agree with her, but this woman kind of scares me,'" said another Texas Republican who has worked against the governor. "Those people are Rick Perry voters."

Those who have watched his campaigns do not doubt his ability to turn his theoretical support on paper into results in the diners and community centers of primary states. Supporters and detractors alike describe Perry as disciplined, driven (some say 'ruthless'), instinctive, and naturally energized by the parade of handshakes and bull@!$%# sessions
that make up a campaign.

And aides say he's prepared to stomach the ugly parts of the contest, too -- the inevitable opposition research hits, attack ads, and rhetorical brawls.

"He enjoys the engagement," Carney said of the governor's campaign style. "He enjoys the battle."

His weakness: Is the country ready for another Texas governor?
So is this man invincible in a GOP primary?

His most immediate challenge may be an inherited one. Both his current job and his gerund-abbreviatin' twang are likely to remind Americans of fellow Texan George W. Bush, a man still solely blamed by almost half of Americans for the country's current economic woes, per a June NBC/WSJ poll.

"I thought when I listened to him talk, I thought he was doing a parody of George Bush," former New Mexico Gov. (and longshot presidential candidate) Gary Johnson recently said of Perry.

While God-fearing-Texas-governor fatigue is sure to influence the race on a national scale, the comparison is less obvious to Texans. A native of tiny Paint Creek, TX (which has a school district so small that its teams play Six-man football), Perry's personal story more closely resembles Bill Clinton's than Bush's. His father was a farmer and World War II gunner; his early life was poor and more influenced by the weather in drought-plagued central Texas than by its oil reserves. He is fond of mentioning that he was an animal science major at Texas A&M, far from the Ivy Leagues that educated Bush, Romney, and Barack Obama.

But Perry's rags-to-riches biography isn't without its cloudy details. He may not be a millionaire on the scale of Romney or Jon Huntsman, but he made substantial profits off of land deals -- including transactions with close confidantes. A long list of Perry friends have gotten rich after entering the private sector. Critics frequently accuse him of cronyism and of placing his career's self-preservation ahead of all else. Perhaps the most glaring example is Perry's abrupt 2009 dismissal of the chair of a forensic panel that was investigating whether or not Cameron Todd Willingham, a man put to death under Perry's watch on charges of killing his three children in a fire, was innocent. That's the stuff of which opposition research is made.

His devotion to privatization and reform hasn't always resulted in data worthy of a proud press release. Texas’ only rival in the percentage of hourly workers who make at or below the minimum wage is Mississippi. The state ranks 43rd nationally in high school graduation. The state balanced its budget despite a multibillion-dollar shortfall earlier this year largely by instituting Spartan cuts to education and human services.

"This guy is Paul Ryan on crack," says Stanford. "Everything Paul Ryan wants to do on a national scale, Perry has already done here."

And then there's, well, Texas.

Perry leads a state that is physically larger than almost 200 countries in the world. It's 25 times the size of Romney's Massachusetts and 87 times the size of Bachmann's congressional district.  It has its own pledge of allegiance.  Even with its majority-minority demographics, it went for John McCain by almost 12 points in the last election. The official slogan of the Office of Economic Development and Tourism is -- this is actually true -- "Texas. It's like a whole other country."

It's a little different than the rest of the Lower 48. And that could be problematic in a general election, when the game will be to win over swing voters from the Midwest, Southwest, and Mountain West.

"His challenge is being able to move from talking about Texas 100 percent of the time -- which is his narrative -- to talking about it one percent of the time," said Bill Miller, a longtime Austin political consultant who has worked with both Democrats and Republicans in the state.

And it's still unclear whether a decade of what Perry has frequently called "the best job in the world" has completely readied him for a bitter fight for what's very likely the hardest and loneliest one.

"He has never had an effective, funded Republican voice against him in a primary race," said Harold Cook, a Democratic consultant in Texas. "And he's about to."

WATERLOO, IA -- Tim Pawlenty continued to rebuke of President Obama's economic policies here at a the Black Hawk County Republican women's luncheon.

Pawlenty recounted a conversation he had with a 10-year-old boy, who told him that keeping  taxes low will give people more money.

'We shouldn't have to have a 10 year old know more about the economy than the president of the United States," said Pawlenty. (In fact, Obama has continually cut taxes as president -- whether it was through the stimulus, extending the so-called Bush tax cuts, or enacting payroll tax cuts.)

In his first two stops today, he has remained focused on Obama, and has only generically mentioned the rest of the GOP field.

'His time is up," Pawlenty said of the president. "He's had three years in office. Stick a fork in him. He's done."

The Gingrich campaign has told NBC News that Newt Gingrich WILL be at the Ames Straw Poll on Aug. 13.

The campaign has not spent resources there, but his name is on the ballot.

Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said the former House speaker wants to show his commitment to the state of Iowa.

It will be very informal, though, as Gingrich is not a paid participant and thus is not allowed to speak at the event.

"We have a respect for the straw poll as an institution... But we are a caucus-driven campaign," Hammond said.

Next week, Gingrich will also attend the FOX debate, participate in the Polk Co. GOP parade, and visit the Iowa State Fair.

Newt Gingrich made his pitch yesterday to Iowa activists. He said Iowa would be "central to my future."

But he painted a dour view of his campaign and his chances at the Ames Straw Poll.

“If you are going to Ames, I need your help at Ames," Gingrich said. "We are not spending any money at Ames, so I am going to get whatever votes I get.

"I don't have the resources to compete with these guys."

Video shot by NBC's Alex Moe; edited by Domenico Montanaro

SOUTH ST. PAUL, MN -- Steve Sviggum remembers well the day in 2001 when Tim Pawlenty publicly embarrassed him.

Sviggum, then speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives, was up to bat in a legislative softball game, and Pawlenty -- House majority leader at the time -- crept up behind him and yanked his pants down.

Two years later, a headline in the Minneapolis Star Tribune read, “Gov. Tim Pawlenty's brand of humor sets him apart as he treads the fine line between jest and jeer.”

“Tim Pawlenty is very much a prankster, a jokester,” Sviggum said.

He -- like many of the former governor’s colleagues and friends -- remembers Pawlenty as the funny and charismatic leader of Minnesota.

And, along with being entertaining, they remember him as the political figure who dominated this state’s politics for the past decade. He’s the Republican who won the governor’s mansion twice; he didn't raise taxes; and, in 2008, he set a state record for most vetoes in a year.

But eight days before his near make-or-break Ames Straw Poll contest, even Pawlenty’s biggest champions cannot put a finger on why the presidential candidate is seen as so unexciting. Or why the former governor’s conservative record is not gaining more traction with voters.

“In my cynical times, I would say there was a press person who didn’t like him and once labeled him bland, and everyone else just followed along,” Sviggum said.

Pawlenty is not running for “entertainer and chief,” as he said on “Meet The Press” last month. And his campaign slogan has been “Results, Not Rhetoric,” a seeming nod to voters to look at his record in Minnesota, not how he delivers his message. In a new mailer being sent to Iowa voters, his wife Mar, said her husband should appeal to voters “looking for someone who can do more than make soaring promises or give fiery speeches about what they hope they might do.”

But in the lead up to the Ames straw poll on Aug. 13, polls suggest Pawlenty’s take-me as-I-am strategy is not yet resonating with voters. The latest Gallup poll shows him garnering just 2% support nationally from Republicans.

Questions about Pawlenty’s attitude and demeanor are common during campaign stops throughout the Hawkeye State. Specifically, voters want to know why he did not go take the opportunity to go after Mitt Romney for the health-care legislation he signed into law as governor of Massachusetts.

“Tim would normally be very aggressive in a situation like that,” Sviggum said. But, he adds, Pawlenty had always been a “team player” -- which may have been the reason why he shied away from directly attacking a fellow Republican.

“This guy has serious talent,” said Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. It is the rise of what Jacobs calls “the politics of tweeting” -- the allure of short sound bites and quick criticisms -- that has put Pawlenty at a disadvantage.

“Part of it, frankly, is that thoughtful conservatism ... has lost its appeal,” Jacobs said.

As an outside observer, Daniel Wolter -- who worked as a speech writer for then-Gov. Pawlenty -- sees the disconnect between the politician he knew as governor and the one now running for president. “There’s a charisma factor that hasn’t broken through yet,” he said.

At the Crocian Hall in South St. Paul, where Pawlenty first announced he would run for governor in 2001, there is a common feeling -- he’s a nice guy, but not presidential timber.

“He’s just not politician enough,” said Striuder Goff, a Republican who knew Pawlenty's older brother growing up. “It’s too bad. I’d probably vote for him.”

*** CORRECTION *** Wolter, quoted above, worked for Pawlenty as a communications director, not speechwriter.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), speaking with Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC’s "Daily Rundown" this morning, said she thinks Texas Gov. Rick Perry is running for president, but balked at offering her fellow Texan praise.

“I do think he's running; I think that's very clear,” Hutchison said. “He's putting all of the building blocks in place.”

She would not say, however, if she would support a particular candidate. “I don't know what I'm going to do. I'm looking for the candidate who can win. I want a candidate who can fix this economy. I'd like to see someone with the experience necessary to do that.”

But does she think Perry has the requisite experience?

“Well he certainly has government experience,” Hutchison said. For a conservative, particularly one running for president, a long resume of government work is not necessarily a compliment one wants.

Hutchison added that her preference is for leaders who have private experience, saying: “I’ve always felt like we need people who have really been in the private sector, as well and have actually created jobs.”

In fact, for a politician with such an anti-government lean, Perry has spent nearly his whole career as a government official. He has worked in government for more than 27 consecutive years since being elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 1984. If Perry is elected president, he will have served 28 consecutive years doing government work, longer than any candidate ever elected to the White House.

Hutchison’s less-than-enthusiastic take on Perry, of course, comes as no surprise. A year ago, Hutchison lost a hotly contested gubernatorial primary challenge to him.

MASON CITY, Iowa -- In his first of five campaign stops throughout Iowa today, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said he isn't going to change Washington as president.

Instead, he said, "I'm going to defeat it."

Pawlenty spoke to a group of about 40 gathered here at the Clarion Inn. While not directly addressing todays economis numbers, he hit the president for his poor economic record .

"Barack Obama's hope and change has become a hope we don't lose our house or have to change our address," he said.

The AFL-CIO is out a memo that essentially gives Congress this message: Working families are mad as hell, and they want results from Congress. Per the memo:

Working families across the country are angry at the partisan attacks pursued by politicians in Washington and in state capitals instead of action to tackle the tough issues most important to working people: creating jobs and restoring balance in our economy.

So between now and Labor Day, thousands of working people will be at town halls, fundraisers, and other community events to ensure their voice is heard through the din of corporate CEOs.

[snip]

In the coming weeks, constituents in states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Iowa and Florida will hold actions to hold politicians accountable including:

-- Pressing [Colorado GOP Reps.] Tipton and Gardner at their town halls on August 5 and 8 on whether they will cut Medicare and Social Security in order to give tax breaks to corporations and the extremely wealthy;
-- Events in opposition to cuts to Medicare and Social Security;
-- Jobless workers will call for good jobs, not political agendas;
-- Protests of state legislators’ gerrymandering antics at redistricting hearings;
-- Actions holding state politicians accountable for their votes on anti-worker, anti-middle class legislation.

Better than expected: 117,000 jobs added in July (including 154,000 private-sector jobs) and unemployment rate drops to 9.1%... Obama to comment on the economy (and an effort to find employment for veterans) at 11:00 am ET… Memo to the political world: Yesterday’s Dow sell-off was about more than Washington and the debt deal… Americans’ response after the debt deal, per polls: “Worst. Congress. Ever.”… Rick Perry’s day prayer and fasting is tomorrow in Houston… WSJ on Bachmann’s “emotional connection” with voters… And Bachmann, Gingrich, McCotter, Pawlenty, and Santorum are in Iowa, while Huntsman remains in New Hampshire.

*** Better than expected: A day after the Dow plunged more than 500 points and after growing talk of a “double dip” recession, we got the results from the latest jobs report. The verdict? It’s better than expected, but the question is whether it calms the worries that appear to be much bigger than what’s happening in the U.S. And is it a silver lining? Or the start of a more positive trend? Per the AP, 117,000 jobs were added in July (including 154,000 private-sector jobs), and the unemployment rate dropped from 9.2% to 9.1%. “The mild gain may ease investors' concerns after the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 500 points over concerns that the U.S. may be entering another recession. Still, the economy needs twice as many net jobs per month to rapidly reduce unemployment.”

*** Obama to comment on the economy: Of course, none of yesterday’s economic news -- plus today’s slightly better-than-expected jobs report -- is great for an incumbent president up for re-election 15 months from now. At 11:00 am ET, from Washington’s Navy Yard, he’ll comment on the economy and jobs reports at an event promoting the administration’s effort to find employment for veterans. According to Reuters, he will propose a $120 million package “of new tax credits for businesses that hire U.S. veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan at a time of stubbornly high unemployment at home.”

*** It’s bigger than us: Memo to the political world: Yesterday's Dow sell-off had to do with factors MUCH bigger than the just-completed debt deal. What’s occurring across global financial markets isn’t just about Washington. As the Washington Post writes, “On both sides of the Atlantic, economic vital signs are rapidly deteriorating. The United States’ recovery is stalling, and Europe’s debt crisis is threatening to strike Spain and Italy, which have two of the continent’s largest economies.” But the debt debate -- which focused on austerity rather than boosting the economy, and which highlighted the country’s political dysfunction -- probably didn’t help things. “The whole debate over the debt ceiling sent four negative messages to the markets,” a Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist told the Post. “That we have a big debt problem, that we can’t fix it because we have a dysfunctional political system, that it’s okay to use the threat of default to achieve political ends, and that there's no safety net if the economy goes into recession because we’re not going to have any more fiscal stimulus.”

*** “Worst. Congress. Ever.”: A couple of weeks ago, congressional scholar Norm Ornstein dubbed this 112^th Congress as the “Worst. Congress. Ever.” And after the combative and exhaustive debt debate, it appears the American public agrees with him. Per a brand-new New York Times/CBS poll, 82% now disapprove of Congress’ job, which is a record high in that poll. A CNN poll also had Congress’ disapproval at an all-time high of 84%. Here are more numbers from the NYT/CBS survey: 72% disapproved how congressional Republican handled the debt negotiations, while 66% said that of congressional Dems and 47% said that of Obama; the Tea Party’s fav/unfav is now 20%-40%, compared with 26%-29% back in April; and by a margin of greater than 2-to-1, respondents said creating jobs should be a higher priority than spending cuts. The best news for Obama this entire week? His job approval (48%-47%) remains relatively unchanged. By comparison, however, House Speaker John Boehner’s disapproval rating has sky-rocketed to 57%.

*** “We got to pray just to make it today…”: Tomorrow brings us Rick Perry’s day of prayer and fasting in Houston, which is billed “The Response: A Call to Prayer for a Nation in Crisis.” So far, this event has produced a couple of headaches for the Texas governor and possible GOP presidential candidate. First, NBC’s Carrie Dann reported earlier this week that about 8,000 attendees have registered (and that number is expected to increase). But the venue, the Houston Texans’ Reliant Stadium, holds more than 70,000. Second, it’s produced plenty of criticism from gay-rights and separation-of-church-and-state groups. As Dann noted, “The event is hosted by the American Family Association, a 501(c)3 organization that opposes pornography and abortion and describes homosexuality as the product of ‘a sinful heart.’” The potential benefit to Perry, especially if he runs for president: The gathering helps persuade evangelical Christians that he’s one of their own.

*** Bachmann’s “emotional connection”: But Perry would also have to compete with Michele Bachmann for their support. The Wall Street Journal profiles Bachmann, and it explains her appeal to conservatives this way: “She makes an emotional connection with her audience.” From the article’s lead: “On a recent stop here, she took off her bracelet, dangled it before the infant and cradled him while he teethed on the pearls. During another campaign appearance, Ms. Bachmann climbed down from the stage to take the hands of a woman who asked a question, holding them as she answered. Meeting a teenager with Down syndrome, the Minnesota congresswoman swept him up in a hug, then signed his T-shirt.”

*** On the 2012 trail: Bachmann, Gingrich, McCotter, Pawlenty, and Santorum are in Iowa… Huntsman remains on his swing through New Hampshire.

***Thursday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up with guest host Andrea Mitchell: Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi on job numbers and the market drop… Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Austan Goolsbee (on his last day on the job!)… Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) on the FAA deal, jobs and Perry’s Saturday prayer event in Houston… More 2012 news with GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak, Roll Call’s David Drucker and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Cynthia Tucker.

*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews, among others, Sen, John Kerry, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, CNBC’s Ron Insana, and NBC’s Tom Brokaw.

Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for GOP senators: 4 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 8 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for Dem senators: 11 days
Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 39 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 95 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 185 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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The New York Times says it very well could occur. “If this is the beginning of a new double dip, it will have two significant things in common with the dual recessions of 1980 and 1981-82. In each case the first recession was caused in large part by a sudden withdrawal of credit from the economy. The recovery came when credit conditions recovered.”

“And in each case the second recession began at a time when the usual government policies to fight economic weakness were deemed unavailable. Then, the need to fight inflation ruled out an easier monetary policy. Now, the perceived need to reduce government spending rules out a more accommodating fiscal policy.”

Reuters: “President Barack Obama on Friday will propose a $120 million package of new tax credits for businesses that hire U.S. veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan at a time of stubbornly high unemployment at home.”

A new CBS/New York Times poll shows President Obama with a 48%/47% approval rating overall, 46%/47% on his handling of the debt ceiling. But Congress is at its all-time low with just a 14%/82% approval rating. And House Speaker John Boehner also took at hit with just a 30%/57% approval rating, down from 32%/41% in April.

Scrutiny on Bernanke: “Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his Federal Reserve colleagues are preparing to meet next week as two-year Treasury yields at a record low signal a U.S. economy on the knife’s edge between growth and contraction,” Bloomberg reports. “Guiding their assessment of the outlook for the world’s largest economy  will be forecasts contained in the so-called Teal Book, a confidential staff report with a blue-green cover. Policy makers’ confidence in those forecasts may be tempered as the course of the expansion has confounded their expectations.”

Ironic good news at the pump: “Oil fell to the lowest in eight months in New York, set for the biggest weekly decline since May, on speculation fuel demand will falter as U.S. economic growth stalls and Europe’s debt crisis worsens,” Bloomberg notes.

“Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Thursday signaled that the Pentagon will push hard against future spending cuts, saying that up to $500 billion in cuts that could come later this year would be a ‘doomsday mechanism’ that would endanger national security,” Politico says.

“Congress announced a deal Thursday that would temporarily end the partial shutdown of the Federal Aviation Administration and get people back to work,” the New York Daily News writes. “The deal, to be voted on Friday, will keep the FAA open through lawmakers' vacation, but does not resolve the broader issues that divided Congress. It also gets more than 4,000 furloughed FAA employees and laid-off construction workers back on the job.”

The New York Times: “The agreement signals an end, at least for a few weeks, to a standoff over policy issues that had left 4,000 agency employees out of work, idled tens of thousands of workers at hundreds of airport construction projects and cost the federal government more than $350 million in lost taxes on airline tickets.”

A senior government official tells NBC’s Jay Blackman that if the Senate passes the bill today -- and if President Obama signs it into law immediately -- furloughed workers can return to their jobs on Monday.  It may take a bit longer for construction crews to get back to work since some may have taken other jobs in the interim.

Obama issued this statement yesterday, “I'm pleased that leaders in Congress are working together to break the impasse involving the FAA so that tens of thousands of construction workers and others can go back to work. We can't afford to let politics in Washington hamper our recovery, so this is an important step forward.”

BACHMANN: The Wall Street Journal profiles Bachmann, and it explains her appeal to conservatives this way: “She makes an emotional connection with her audience.” From the article’s lead: “On a recent stop here, she took off her bracelet, dangled it before the infant and cradled him while he teethed on the pearls. During another campaign appearance, Ms. Bachmann climbed down from the stage to take the hands of a woman who asked a question, holding them as she answered. Meeting a teenager with Down syndrome, the Minnesota congresswoman swept him up in a hug, then signed his T-shirt.”

CAIN: National Review Online writes that Herman Cain’s campaign style, which has been well received at events and in straw poll results so far, will be tested at the biggest straw poll of them all in Ames, Iowa: “Cain is currently slated to be the last candidate giving a speech at Ames, but attendees are free to cast their vote hours before Cain speaks. For the candidate whose golden tongue has been key to straw-poll triumphs, that last-place slot could hurt his ability to sway attendees’ minds.”

Speaking at a forum sponsored by the Greater Des Moines Partnership yesterday, “Herman Cain seemed to raise the bar Thursday for his performance in the Iowa Republican straw poll, saying he needs a top-three finish in the Aug. 13 event,” the Des Moines Register writes. “However, the presidential candidate added later that failure to reach that wouldn’t drive him out of the race.”

GINGRICH: End of the road? Gingrich said this on FOX, per GOP 12 about his chances in Ames: "We decided we have relatively scarce resources. Several people are going to spend several million dollars trying to win this. I wish them well. We'll do as well as we do, whatever that means."

PAWLENTY: On Hannity last night, Pawlenty again didn’t go all in on confronting an opponent when given the chance. The FOX host asked Pawlenty about the back and forth that's been going on between him and Bachmann and Pawlenty pretty much bypassed the question saying, per NBC’s Lauren Selsky. "Well, we've had a couple of back and forth. I don’t know that people are interested in the back and forth as they are the country's in big trouble, " Pawlenty said.

He set his expectations for Ames on FOX last night, per GOP 12: "I think it's the kickoff to the formal campaign season. There's a lot of preseason warmups, but this is going to be the start of the formal season, and I think we're going to do very well. I'm confident of that. .... We're going to continue to get good momentum, and I think you're going to see the first step of that in the straw poll next week."

“GOP White House hopeful Tim Pawlenty said this week that most or all climate change stems from natural causes,” The Hill reports. “The statement puts the former Minnesota governor at odds with GOP front-runner Mitt Romney, who believes climate change is occurring and that humans have contributed.”

PERRY: “Civil liberties groups are gathering together in opposition to Texas Gov. Rick Perry's day of prayer and fasting this weekend,” the AP writes. “The groups, which say they represent tens of thousands of Texans, oppose the governor's prayer meeting on Saturday because they say it disrespects the separation of church and state. They also complain that the groups organizing the event hold extreme positions on freedom of religion, homosexuality and the role of religion in government.”

Politico looks at how Perry’s entrance into the 2012 race could impact Karl Rove. “Rove, who served as George W. Bush’s political strategist in Texas on his way to becoming the GOP’s best known political operative, had a falling out with Perry and his staff when Bush was governor in the 1990’s that has become the stuff of Lone Star lore. With no signs the two have patched things up — and with some suggestion that Rove, or at least his team, is tilting toward Romney — speculating how their relationship would play out if Perry becomes a candidate has become something of a fixation among Perry supporters and other Republicans in Texas and Washington.”

National Journal's insider poll found that DC Republicans rank Perry as the second most likely candidate to win the nomination after Mitt Romney.

The Texas Tribune profiles Perry's wife Anita. "Perry grew up as the daughter of a country doctor in a place where, as she has fondly recalled, freezers were piled high with casseroles for neighbors in need. She possesses a small-town reserve along with her matter-of-fact kindness. Behind that reserve is also a woman who encouraged her husband to get out of his “comfort zone” — and run for president."

The New Hampshire Union Leader’s DiStaso reports on New Hampshire activists who met with Rick Perry in Austin, Texas yesterday.

ROMNEY: NBC’s Garrett Haake reports, the National Organization for Marriage announced Thursday that GOP presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum have signed their anti-gay marriage pledge. The pledge requires signatories to support a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman, fight for the federal Defense of Marriage Act in court, and appoint judges and an attorney general who will "respect the original meaning of the Constitution". The candidates signing the pledge also promise to appoint a presidential commission to investigate harassment of traditional marriage supporters, and support legislation that would allow voters in the District of Columbia to vote directly for or against same-sex marriage there. The organization's president called the three candidates "marriage champions" for signing the pledge. The organization will begin a bus tour across Iowa in conjunction with two other social conservative groups next week. A Romney campaign spokesperson called the NOM commitment a "straightforward pledge that reaffirms Governor Romney's belief that marriage is between a man and a woman."

The mysterious $1 million dollar donation to Romney's Super PAC, first reported by NBC News yesterday, continues to draw scrutiny. The Boston Globe reports that a non-profit group advocating against corporate involvement in elections has sent a letter to the Delaware attorney general asking for an investigation of the PAC, Restore our Future, and the mysterious company W Spann LLC, which dissolved only weeks after writing the committee a $1 million check.

NBC News’ Isikoff reports that two campaign reforms groups will request investigations of the donation later today. "Fred Wertheimer, the president of Democracy 21, an advocacy group for campaign reform, said the contribution appeared to be ‘blatantly’ designed to circumvent campaign disclosure laws. He said Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center, another advocacy group that promotes greater transparency in election laws, will formally request an investigation into the donation on Friday. "

SANTORUM: Santorum and Herman Cain spoke at the same event in Iowa yesterday. Santorum, who per NBC’s Anthony Terrell worked the room shaking hands, took a mild shot at Cain seated at an adjacent table: “I drove myself here. Herman, you got a nice bus, but I drove my Ford Pickup here.” The lights dimmed and Santorum joked, “I assume my time is up, so…” to laughs in the crowd. That’s when the lights went out, leaving only candle light. Santorum responded, saying, “Oh, I guess my time is REALLY up now, okay,” which w as met by even louder laughter. And then Santorum began to sing, “Strangers in the Night,” holding the last note - apparently on key. 

“Iowa will remain the first presidential caucus state in the nation despite the Republican National Committee’s rejection Thursday of a plan to place greater penalties against states that try to jump ahead, several party leaders in Iowa said,” the Des Moines Register writes. “The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6. ‘The order isn’t going to change even if the date has to,’ said Matt Strawn, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa.

“The Republican National Committee’s Rules Committee voted Thursday to delay action on tougher penalties against states that try to jump head. The measure would have removed VIP passes and desirable hotel accommodations from states like Arizona, Florida and Michigan that have threatened to move their presidential nominating votes before Feb. 6. Current language already strips states in violation of the rules of half of their delegates to the party’s national convention, which formally selects its presidential nominee.”

“Anxieties about the fate of the presidential nominating process broke out into the open Thursday during a meeting of the Republican National Committee, but party officials declined to take formal action against states that might disrupt the primary calendar in 2012,” CNN’s Hamby writes. “The issue is hardly dead, however, and figures to be high on the agenda when the RNC meets again this winter, just before the Republican primary voters begin casting ballots in the presidential race.”

NBC News has learned that the Senate plans to pass -- by unanimous consent -- the House-passed FAA reauthorization bill. This would have the same impact as a "clean" extension of the funding. Workers could be rehired and the impasse resolved.

The Transportation Department will release a letter shortly saying that Secretary Ray LaHood will agree to grant a waiver to the rural communities affected by the House bill. That means they will not be adversely affected.

In a statement, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says:

"I am pleased to announce that we have been able to broker a bipartisan compromise between the House and the Senate to put 74,000 transportation and construction workers back to work. This agreement does not resolve the important differences that still remain. But I believe we should keep Americans working while Congress settles its differences, and this agreement will do exactly that."

*** UPDATE *** In a statement, LaHood says, per NBC's Jay Blackman: "This is a tremendous victory for American workers everywhere. From construction workers to our FAA employees, they will have the security of knowing they are going to go back to work and get a paycheck - and that's what we've been fighting for. We have the best aviation system in the world and we intend to keep it that way."

Earlier today, First Read described the political stakes in next week's Ames Straw Poll, especially for GOP presidential hopefuls Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty.

Now here's a look at the efforts the various campaigns are undertaking to boost their performance at the straw poll, which takes place nine days from now on Aug. 13.

Note: Participants in the straw poll must purchase a $30 ticket, and Iowans of voting age by Nov. 2012 are eligible. In the past, thousands have participated in the contest -- which doesn't determine who'll win the Iowa caucuses or the GOP nomination, but which serves as a test of organization and as a way to winnow the field. And an additional note: Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney aren’t making a play to win the straw poll.

BACHMANN: For the day of the poll, the Bachmann camp has arranged for an air-conditioned tent, country music performers, funnel cakes, and a petting zoo. "You can stay as little or as long as you want to stay, or you can vote and leave," Bachmann said by telephone to supporters in Newton, IA on Monday. "We need to come together on Aug. 13, and make the down payment on taking our country back, and making Barack Obama a one-term president."

Also, this Saturday, Bachmann will sign the Strong America Now debt-reduction pledge.  Signing it means that her supporters will be able to ride buses provided by the Texas-based issue group (as long as they also sign the pledge, too) -- an advantage the Bachmann campaign acknowledges. "We came into Iowa months later than others," Bachmann campaign spokesperson Alice Stewart says.  "Any help we can get, we can use it." For more on Strong America Now, click here.

CAIN: He has introduced himself to voters during his 24 visits to Iowa since declaring his presidential bid, but he’ll give Iowans another chance to see him as he canvasses the state during his 15-stop “Common Sense Solutions bus tour. He's also in Iowa today, but not on the bus yet, making stops in Des Moines, Oskaloosa, and Clinton.

On straw poll day, the campaign will be serving pizza from Godfather's, the chain which Cain formerly ran.

PAWLENTY: A staple of a Pawlenty campaign visit has been the handful of interns who approach Iowans after each event -- to ask if they are attending the straw poll, and if they need a ride or a free ticket. The flyer they hand out promises a "day full of fun and excitement," with live music and food from one of the former Minnesota governor's favorites -- Dairy Queen. The Pawlenty campaign also has a website, iowastrawpoll2011.com, where Iowans can register for a lift or a free ticket.

PAUL: The  campaign is asking supporters who live in Iowa -- or attend school there -- to go to Ames and vote for Paul in the straw poll. Supporters can sign up for a $10 package that includes: a ticket to the straw poll; food and drinks; entertainment at the Paul tent; bus transportation to and from the event.

Supporters who recruit five people to attend the straw poll are considered honorary “Straw Poll Supporters” and will receive a signed copy of Ron Paul’s most recent book, “Liberty Defined.” Those who recruit 10 people will be honorary members of Ron Paul’s “Iowa Leadership Circle” -- and get (in addition to the signed book) an autographed copy of the U.S. Constitution, signed by Ron Paul AND his son, Sen. Rand Paul. The grand prize for those who recruit at least 25 people and are a top five recruit? An exclusive meet-and-greet with Ron Paul, a personal photo-op with the congressman, a VIP front row seat at the Aug. 11 debate -- as well as that autographed book and copy of the U.S. Constitution.

SANTORUM: He has been offering free straw poll tickets and bus transportation to Ames. At every stop Santorum has had, he hands out a sheet of paper that invites "you, your family, and your friends to be his personal guests." And there's this: Santorum also pledges to provide anyone who signs up with free samples of jam that he and his family made from Pennsylvania.

A final note: Per one of the NBC's Iowa-based embeds, you can't turn on a radio station or local TV station without hearing ads for the Iowa State Fair, which also is taking place in Ames. But there really has not been that much promotion about the straw poll itself. 

Now that the debt ceiling skirmish is over, and all eyes are on Friday’s employment report, the conventional wisdom is that President Obama will “pivot to jobs.”

But it wouldn’t really be pivoting: The discussion about the shortage of jobs is really the debt issue looked at from a different angle.

That’s because the extraordinarily high federal debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, which worries Standard & Poor’s and other ratings agencies, results partly from the denominator in that ratio (GDP, or national income) being too small – with scarcely any GDP growth in the first quarter of this year.

More workers, higher incomes, and faster GDP growth would improve the debt-to-GDP ratio and ease some of the bond markets’ concerns.

And of course the numerator in that debt-to-GDP ratio – federal debt – is not only too high right now, it’s headed much higher, largely due to an aging population driving up Medicare and other entitlement spending.

Under the Congressional Budget Office’s most plausible scenario, publicly held federal debt will increase from about 70 percent of GDP this year to more than 100 percent of GDP by 2021 and to 187 percent of GDP by 2035.

The debt is driven partly by the spending that was done in 2009 and 2010 to try to lift the economy out of the recession.

And here’s where jobs re-enter the picture: the waning of the $830 billion stimulus is what has caused the recent drop in state and local government employment, down about three percent from their 2008 peaks.

States are estimated to receive $66 billion less in stimulus funds in the current fiscal year than in the previous year, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers.

Right now, ironically, the only robust job growth sector is one where the president and many Republicans in Congress seem to agree that the federal government is over-spending. Health care employment has grown steadily for the past 20 years, immune to the ups and downs of the economy.

In any event, the phrase “pivot to jobs” raises the question of what can Obama say or do at this point that might appeal to voters, especially to middle-aged voters without jobs? He lacks the votes in Congress to do much more than perhaps get a trade agreement with South Korea ratified and extend and expand the payroll tax cut, set to expire at the end of the year. The payroll tax cut is supplying $111 billion worth of stimulus to the economy.