AMES, Iowa -- Word around the stadium here is the total number of votes is just shy of 17,000, beating expectations and 2007's by about 3,000 votes.

The conventional wisdom is that would be good for Rep. Michele Bachmann, the campaign that had the most laser-like focus on the straw poll. And Ron Paul, who has an ardent following, would have benefited from a lower turnout.

Paul staffers tell NBC's Anthony Terrell they ran out of 4,000 T-shirts at 1:00 pm ET.

Herman Cain spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael tells NBC's Ali Weinberg that they have no solid numbers on how many tickets were sold, but she said the campaign ran out late in the afternoon and had to get more.

She did have a number for another important Cain metric -- pizza. 3,000 slices were given away, she said. Cain is the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza. Another Cain aide said he gave away about 2,500 Cain brochures at the straw poll entrance. A volunteer said all shirts were given away, but Iowa state director Larry Tuel said they had been giving away those shirts on the tour all week. No estimate of what they started with.

AMES, IA -- With a half hour left to vote before the 5:00 pm ET deadline, Republican presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty made a final appeal to straw poll voters.

Pawlenty said he looked forward to seeing the crowd throughout Iowa as his campaign continued through the caucuses.

But late in the afternoon, the difference between the former Minnesota governor's supporters and those of his in-state rival Michele Bachmann was noticeably different: Her indoor tent was filled with a tightly packed crowd listening to country-music star Randy Travis, while Pawlenty's tent was sporadically populated with supporters listening to the Christian Rock band Sonic Flood. 

And file this away: At the last stop of Pawlenty's campaign before today's Ames Straw poll, the former Minnesota governor yesterday approached someone his campaign rarely openly welcomes -- a tracker from the liberal leaning organization American Bridge.

Trackers are accustomed to being approached by campaigns, usually in an attempt to get them to leave. But rarely does the candidate seek out trackers -- and perhaps never has a candidate had a request similar to Pawlenty's: He wanted to take a photo with the tracker, telling him: "In case we never see each other again." 

So Pawlenty and a stunned tracker -- who had been following the candidate through Iowa since he announced his run on May 23 -- made their way up to the stage and stood next to each other and smiled while a photographer snapped a photo.

Asked by NBC News whether it meant his campaign is running out of steam, Pawlenty answered, "Will [the tracker's name] has been following us around, and I wanted to make sure we got a picture before whatever is next for him."

What do California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and brand-new presidential candidate Rick Perry (R) have in common? 

We'll, they appear to share this slogan: It's time to get working again. In his speech today, Perry said: "It is time to get America working again." And that, as one observer of California politics reminds us, is very similar to this Brown message from 2010:

Here's Perry's introductory video...

DIXON, Ill. -- Sarah Palin continued her "One Nation" bus tour today here, the boyhood hometown of former President Ronald Reagan. The former governor, along with her husband, daughter Piper, and niece were shown around Reagan's home; Rock River, where he was a lifeguard; and passed a statue in his honor. Ann Lewis, chairwoman of the Dixon Reagan Sentinel Commission escorted the Palin family around.

Palin told NBC News that it was important for her to come here, because "this is one of those places everyone in America should come to get a sense of Ronald Reagan's foundation -- to understand his humbleness and graciousness."
 
At all two stops, she was greeted by numerous supporters asking for autographs and pictures. Palin also made one reference to her new granddaughter that was born a few days ago when speaking with supporter at the Reagan house.

A lot of the cars passing the bus take photos as they drive past. Some wave and a couple have then followed the bus until it stops to meet Palin.

Leaving Dixon now. Next location is unknown.

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- Whatever you call it -- a "shake-up," a "game change," a "political earthquake," or "a new face on the scene" -- it's happening. Gov. Rick Perry is officially in the presidential race.

Speaking to a crowded hotel ballroom of conservative bloggers and more than 100 members of the media in South Carolina, the Texas governor unveiled a new tagline of his presidential contest: "It is time to get America working again."

'That's why, with the support of my family and unwavering belief in the goodness of America, I declare to you today as a candidate for president of the United States," he said.

Perry's remarks focused squarely on America's economic situation, and he held the Obama administration flatly responsible for sluggish job growth and the recent downgrade of the country's credit rating by Standard and Poor's.

"One in six work-eligible Americans cannot find a full-time job," Perry said. "That is not a recovery -- that is an economic disaster."

Highlighting his background as the son of tenant farmers who grew up in a tiny Texas town wearing clothes hand-sewn by his mother, Perry -- with a characteristic Texas twang -- said that Washington lawmakers are detached from the everyday lives of American citizens.

"I promise you this," he said to rousing cheers. "I'll work every day to try to make Washington, D.C., as inconsequential in your life as I can."

The Texas governor's entry is all but certain to jolt the base voters of other candidates in the GOP field and ensure dramatic competition in early contest states Iowa and South Carolina. His pitch to the evangelical Christian community, on full display last weekend at his 30,000-strong day of prayer and fasting in Houston, could pull support from Iowa front-runner Rep. Michele Bachmann. And his record of job creation in Texas, which will serve as a key selling point for his national campaign, will be measured against the tenure of other former statewide officials in the race like perceived front-runner and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

AMES, Iowa -- There was a huge turnout for Santorum at his tent this morning, 25-plus buses brought in voters, according to staff. His tent had a very long line. The only line that was longer was Bachmann's. Santorum's campaign handed out free pork burgers and samples of "presidential peach preserves" from the family's peach trees.

Clearly, the Santorum campaign has worked very hard to get people here. Turnout at various campaign stops had been low.

"This is the little engine that could campaign. They told us we had no chance, all the press does is write about these shiny engines..we didn't wait around, we worked hard... "This is a chance to strike a blow, a heartland campaign."

Santorum received a standing ovation before and after his speech. He got applause while hitting the health-care plan that passed last year and for touting social values like being against abortion and stressing faith.

Santorum retired to a Iowa State University's women's basketball locker room afterward saying he felt good about speech.

AMES, IA -- Tim Pawlenty just spoke to the supporters at his tent, reminding them -- amid his sponsored concert and free Dairy Queen -- that they are here to vote.

"We gotta remember why we're here. I hope you enjoy the sunshine, the wonderful weather, and the breeze. But we're here today because, like you, I love this country."

The campaign reports more than 100 volunteers are here today, all wearing green shirts with Pawlenty's name on the back and the number "12."

The former Minnesota governor said today's crowd shows the level of momentum his campaign has.

In his brief remarks, he continued his assault on President Obama's record, but did not mention of his Republican rivals.

"Unfortunantly, we have a president who wasn't ready for the job, and he's kicking it in the dugout," he said.

"I hope that you all have voted, and if you haven't, I'm going to come out there and give you the what for," he joked. 

But while Pawlenty was speaking with his supporters, he missed an opportunity to appear on the stage inside the official straw-poll arena with his competitors: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Thaddeus McCotter, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum.

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- Republicans in Iowa might be miffed that Gov. Rick Perry's official presidential announcement in South Carolina this afternoon is siphoning attention from the Ames Straw Poll, but the governor of the Palmetto State is smiling.

"I think his timing was brilliant," Gov. Nikki Haley told reporters after her remarks at the RedState Gathering in South Carolina, where Perry will speak later this afternoon. "I think to turn around and do this the same day that you've got an Ames Iowa poll just really lets us know that it's 'game on' time for all the candidates. And I love that." 

While many of Perry's GOP rivals are munching fried food and busing supporters to Ames, the Texas governor will be formally announcing his presidential intentions at the convention of conservative bloggers in a 350-seat hotel ballroom in Charleston, SC. 

Haley said that she's advised Perry - whom she described in her formal remarks as a "superstar" --  to reach out to activists all over South Carolina, adding that she believes he will find that state "very welcoming."

The South Carolina governor, who is being courted by candidates as a key endorser in the primary contest next year, promised to back a candidate before the primary but not "anytime soon." 

Her criteria for an endorsement? "The hardest part of my job right now is dealing with the federal government. They don't let me do my job. And what I want is a president that understands that I need the federal government to get out of the way so that I can do my job. And I will be endorsing based on that."

*** UPDATE *** AP reports on a conference call Perry just had with South Carolina voters.

"I'm running for president and 'full well believe I'm going to win,'" he told them.

He is speaking at 1:00 pm ET to make it official on camera at RedState.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Perry's Web site is now live.

AMES, Iowa -- Unquestionably, Rep. Michele Bachmann has the most supporters at her tent. Her volunteers are far outnumbering other campaigns, are registering people by the hundreds; Bachmann even has a baloon flying over head with her name on it. For more of our coverage of the straw poll, follow us on Twitter @DomenicNBC and @MMurrayPolitics.

Metaphors abound with Ron Paul's "End the Fed" dunk tank

Liberal group ProtectYourCare, a health-care advocacy group, is handing these out. Flak Eddie Vale is disguised in an NRA hat.

At Rep. Michele Bachmann's "Des Moines Register Soap Box" speech yesterday, an Obama supporter made his support known.

AMES, IA -- Could Mitt Romney's "people are corporations, too" line dog the former Massachusetts governor the same way that Barack Obama's "bitter"/"cling to guns or religion" remarks did during the '08 campaign?

The Democratic National Committee hopes so. It's up with a TV advertisement seizing on Romney's remarks, which he delivered on Thursday at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines. The ad -- which willl air on broadcast and cable channels in Des Moines -- concludes: "Mitt Romney. Putting People Corporations First."

Ultimately, Obama's "bitter" remarks didn't hurt him in '08. Then again, they weren't captured by camera; Obama delivered them at a closed-press fundraiser.

*** UPDATE *** The Romney campaign points out that Romney defended his comments yesterday in New Hampshire:

"What do they think they are? Little men from Mars?" Romney said, per the Boston Globe. "At that time, there was a sentiment somehow that businesses were bad, that it was antipeople. And the Obama administration seems to think that the ’60s [are] here again. Business is good. I am talking about repair shops and gas stations and beauty salons and restaurants. I am talking about Apple Computer and Facebook and Microsoft.”

AMES, Iowa -- Tune into MSNBC for all-day live coverage, including two, two-hour specials hosted from here by NBC's Chuck Todd and Andrea Mitchell. Andrea Mitchell Reports airs from 4:00 pm ET to 6:00 pm ET, followed by Chuck Todd from 6:00 pm ET to 8:00 pm ET.

Expect straw-poll results after 5:00 pm ET, when voting closes. Speeches start around 1:00 pm ET. Below is a rundown of the schedule, according the Iowa Republican Party, which is hosting the event which doubles as a fundraiser for the party. Below that, our preview of the expectations for Ames from First Thoughts yesterday, as well as the list of guests for the two MSNBC specials.

Iowa Straw Poll Speaking Schedule:
Noon/1:00pET- Program Begins
12:15/1:15pET- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20/1:20pET- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30/1:30pET- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40/1:40pET- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00/2:00pET- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15/2:15pET- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40/2:40pET- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50/2:50pET- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10/3:10pET- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20/3:20pET- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40/3:40pET- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50/3:50pET- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15/4:15pET- Herman Cain delivers remarks

*** The expectations game for Saturday’s straw poll: And now we move from last night’s debate to Saturday’s Ames Straw Poll. Here’s what we wrote when we handicapped the straw poll last week. One, Pawlenty needs a strong showing -- it’s hard to envision him winning the GOP nomination without finishing first or a very strong second on Saturday. Two, if Pawlenty has a lot riding on Ames, so does Bachmann, who’s looking to keep her front-runner status in the Hawkeye State, particularly with Perry now entering the field, too. Three, don’t overlook Romney; even though he’s not making a major play in Ames (in fact, he’s in New Hampshire today), he’s had the ability to pull off strong straw poll showings in past. And four, don’t forget about Ron Paul, who expects to finish no worse than third (Herman Cain also has said he’s expecting a top-three showing). Every major unaffiliated veteran Iowa Republican strategist believes Bachmann, Pawlenty, and Paul will be the top 3, just unclear of order. The chatter we hear out here goes like this: Bachmann's organization may be too Des Moines-centric; Pawlenty has the best organization, but there's been little passion on the trail and he's struggled to get folks to show up at events; Paul's campaign is much more sophisticated than it was four years. Also, many smart Iowa GOPers tell us: keep an eye on Santorum: he's been TIRELESS; If there is a surprise top-3 finisher, it could be him.

*** Our Glengarry Glen Ross rule: But as we also wrote last week, under the Ames Straw Poll’s Glengarry Glen Ross rule, third place isn’t a good place to be: First place gets you a Cadillac El Dorado; second place gets you a set of steak knives; and third place -- you're fired. In fact, per NBC's John Bailey, the last two third-place finishers in Ames (Sam Brownback in '07 and Liddy Dole in '99) dropped out two months after the straw poll. 

*** On Andrea Mitchell Reports...: Pawlenty adviser Phil Musser; DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz; Pollster Ann Selzer, whose Iowa Poll is the gold standard of polling here; former RNC Chairman Michael Steele; Chuck Todd; "Morning Joe" host Joe Scarborough; NBC News campaign embeds and others.

ALBIA, IA – Herman Cain’s first audience yesterday after the GOP presidential debate in Ames the night before featured several other speakers -- at least one of whom the other Republican presidential candidates would likely be loathe to appear on the same stage.

Cain spoke at a breakfast meeting for the National Foundation for Women Legislators, a nonpartisan group that supports female participation in government. The theme of the breakfast was health care, and Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, a vocal supporter of President Obama’s health-care law, spoke in a video message before Cain took to the podium. 

Cain, a close friend of Robin Read -- the president and CEO of the National Foundation for Women Legislators -- did not overtly acknowledge the Democratic speakers who preceded him on stage, but he did tone down the rhetoric he’s used elsewhere on the campaign trail. Rather than say the country needs to “alter and abolish” programs like health care “deform,” as he calls it, Cain only mentioned it in passing, not getting much of a rise from the audience.

“Last night at the debate, many of you all heard about Romneycare, Obamacare, quite frankly some people don’t care,” Cain said.

He did say, however, that he was an “outspoken voice” against the Clinton health-care proposal in the 1990s, saying “it was not the right solution,” again to a mostly silent crowd –- a stark contrast with the raucous responses he usually gets to such statements.

He also did not mention his support for restructuring Medicare along the lines of Rep. Paul Ryan’s’ plan, instead focusing on his personal experience with health-care providers during his fight with colon and liver cancer, which he has been free of for five years.

He said that when he started visiting so many doctors to deal with his Stage Five cancer, he asked one of them who was in charge, to which the doctor responded, “You’re in charge.”

“That’s one of the first lessons I think we need to let everybody know. The government’s not in charge, the doctor’s not in charge, each individual is in charge of their health care,” Cain said, this time to applause.

After the women legislators’ breakfast, Cain spoke at the Iowa State Fair, using his allotted 20 minutes at the Des Moines’ Register’s soapbox to once again talk about his personal bout with cancer, telling the audience he defeated it “against all odds.”

After he spoke, Cain was asked by CNN’s Don Lemon about previous comments Cain made about Muslims in America, notably that he does not think communities should be required to allow the construction of mosques and that he would not appoint a Muslim to his cabinet.

Cain maintained he was referring strictly to Muslims who would want to impose Sharia law in America.

“What I said or what I intended got misconstrued,” Cain said. “We are a nation that recognizes and appreciates all religions. However, if there is a part of a religion that is going to basically try and change our culture, or hurt this nation, I’m going to be the first one to stand in the way. “

He said mosques should not be “categorically” banned from the United States. “It depends on what it’s being used for. Not all of them are being used just for religious purposes,” he said.

Cain addressed voters in the main squares of two Iowa towns, Albia and Sigourney, after the state fair.

Now in some non-campaign news.. The AP reports that the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that part of the federal health-care law -- the individual mandate -- is unconstitutional.

A divided three-judge panel of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals on Friday struck down the so-called individual mandate, siding with 26 states that had sued to block the law.

But the decision didn't go as far as a lower court that had invalidated the entire overhaul as unconstitutional... An appeals court and three federal judges have upheld the law, and two have invalidated it. Experts say the debate ultimately will be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

After his speech at the State Fair Soap Box event, Rick Santorum slammed those in the media who refer to Tim Pawlenty as a viable "alternative" because his numbers are just as low as Santorum's, according to some polls.

Santorm also attacked Huntsman for being a media darling "even though he is at zero." Santorum called his own campaign a "little engine" that needs to finish in the top half at the straw poll.

Cain reflects on debate
NBC's Ali Weinberg reports: Herman Cain commented on the debate last night after his first stop today at the National Foundation for Women Legislators breakfast in Des Moines.

"From my perspective, I thought the debate went well. I felt as if I did well in terms of my responses. Yes, I would have liked to have gotten more questions; yes, I would have liked for the time to answer to have been a little longer; yes, I would have liked for the whole thing to have been a little less focused on these little conflicts between other candidates, because I think that in essence, that kept the American people from learning more about what we would do."

Cain also spoke at the Des Moines Register's State Fair soapbox and will hold a third event of the day, a town hall in Albia.

Was it that good of a night for the GOP?… We’ve moved from the stage where the attacks have been aimed at Obama, to the stage where they’re now directed at each other… Other impressions of last night’s debate: Romney emerged unscathed… Pawlenty might have helped himself, but did he go too far?… Bachmann knocked off her game a bit… Huntsman was a relative afterthought… Sarah Palin is today's State Fair shiny metal object… And the expectations game for Saturday’s Ames Straw Poll. 

AMES, IA -- It’s pretty obvious to say that Rick Perry has to feel good after last night’s GOP presidential debate here. And it’s obvious that Mitt Romney emerged unscathed. But our biggest takeaway from the debate: It wasn’t a good night for the entire Republican Party, especially since it was such an opportunity for the party as this debate took place in the midst of what happens to be President Obama’s worst week in the White House. Team Obama could not have asked for a better visual than every single GOP candidate raising their hand saying they’d refuse to support a debt deal that had a 10-to-1 ratio of spending cuts to tax increases. What’s more, the highlights of the debate were about them attacking each other than criticizing the president. We have now officially moved from the stage of the GOP presidential cycle where they’re attacking Obama, to the stage where they’re attacking each other. And this is one of the reasons why defeating a sitting president -- who isn’t facing a primary challenge -- isn’t easy, even in an economy like this one

*** Romney emerges unscathed: As for the individual performances last night, Romney -- once again -- left the debate unscathed as the other candidates (first Bachmann vs. Pawlenty, then Santorum vs. Paul) focused their attention elsewhere. He talked about the issues he wanted to talk about: the economy, jobs, his business record. And the candidates and moderators allowed him to dodge two questions. One was on the increased revenues he touted to get Massachusetts’ Triple-A rating (Romney’s answer never once referred to those revenues or closed loopholes). Two, when he was asked about Massachusetts’ health-care law, he invoked the 10^th amendment (but what he didn’t say: that he once said his state’s plan should be a model for other states, and that he endorsed John Chafee’s health-care legislation in the early 1990s, which had a federal individual mandate). The question for Romney is whether it will continue to be as easy in future debates. Remember, Hillary Clinton won almost every debate she participated in during the ’08 campaign, but it was just one slip-up (in Philly in Oct. ‘07) that gave Obama and the other Dems an opening.  

*** Did Pawlenty help himself? Meanwhile, in the debate before Saturday’s straw poll, you could argue that Pawlenty helped himself. He was VERY aggressive with Bachmann, who’s his biggest competition tomorrow. He questioned her record (“It's an undisputable fact that in Congress, her record of accomplishment and results is nonexistent”) and criticized her misstatements (“she's got a record of misstating and making false statements”). He even had a stronger critique of Romney’s health-care, but it lacked the passion of his exchanges with Bachmann. But if he sometimes came across as a fighter, Pawlenty also might have gone a little too far (example: his joke about mowing just one acre of Romney’s lawn). Perhaps most significantly, Pawlenty helped the Republican Party, providing the playbook how you go after Bachmann. He exposed her weaknesses in a way that Romney and Perry will appreciate months from now -- or, for that matter, if Pawlenty is able to pull a surprise on Saturday and help himself.

*** Bachmann knocked off her game a bit: As for Bachmann, she started off strong and didn’t back down from her first back-and-forth with Pawlenty (hitting him for his past support for cap-and-trade, as well as his onetime endorsement of an individual mandate). She was well prepared for that. But after her second tussle with T-Paw -- over a cigarette tax hike in Minnesota -- she seemed knocked off her game a bit. Her second hour lacked the fire she displayed in the first hour. And her submission-means-respect answer was puzzling. Our question: Did the rough exchanges and tough questions end up hurting her, or did they possibly backfire on her male rivals and moderators? In fact, the “submission” question got plenty of boos from the audience. On “TODAY,” she doubled down on saying that she wouldn’t increase the debt ceiling. That position doesn’t help her with the GOP business community and has to create an opening for Perry to be the Tea Party candidate who is at least going to explain a way to raise the debt ceiling. 

*** Huntsman was a relative afterthought: In his first debate, Huntsman turned out to be more of an afterthought than you would have expected, and that might be a kind way to put it. Indeed, when he was in the spotlight, the focus was his moderate-leaning positions -- on the stimulus (backed a larger stimulus, with more tax cuts), on gay rights (favors civil unions), and on immigration (once backed comprehensive immigration reform). You’ve got to give credit to Huntsman for not disavowing those positions in front of the largely socially conservative audience. But you also realize why Huntsman is headed to New Hampshire today… 

*** The rest: As for the rest, Gingrich turned out to be the Newt we all expected (engaging, argumentative), but a question about his staff defections wasn’t a “gotcha” question; it's a question about whether he can be run actually run the largest enterprise in the world: the U.S. government… Santorum didn’t have anything to lose and laid it all out there, but his one true moment came in his sparring with Ron Paul over Iran, reprising Rudy Giuliani’s role in ’07-’08 of hitting the Texas congressman on matters of foreign policy… And for Paul, he once again showed that his views – especially on foreign policy – are shared by just a sliver of the GOP electorate. Yes, he’s a godfather of the Tea Party, but most Republicans view Iran as a  threat (especially to Israel)…. And Herman Cain? He didn’t have real moment to shine. 

*** The expectations game for Saturday’s straw poll: And now we move from last night’s debate to Saturday’s Ames Straw Poll. Here’s what we wrote when we handicapped the straw poll last week. One, Pawlenty needs a strong showing -- it’s hard to envision him winning the GOP nomination without finishing first or a very strong second on Saturday. Two, if Pawlenty has a lot riding on Ames, so does Bachmann, who’s looking to keep her front-runner status in the Hawkeye State, particularly with Perry now entering the field, too. Three, don’t overlook Romney; even though he’s not making a major play in Ames (in fact, he’s in New Hampshire today), he’s had the ability to pull off strong straw poll showings in past. And four, don’t forget about Ron Paul, who expects to finish no worse than third (Herman Cain also has said he’s expecting a top-three showing). Every major unaffiliated veteran Iowa Republican strategist believes Bachmann, Pawlenty, and Paul will be the top 3, just unclear of order. The chatter we hear out here goes like this: Bachmann's organization may be too Des Moines-centric; Pawlenty has the best organization, but there's been little passion on the trail and he's struggled to get folks to show up at events; Paul's campaign is much more sophisticated than it was four years. Also, many smart Iowa GOPers tell us: keep an eye on Santorum: he's been TIRELESS; If there is a surprise top-3 finisher, it could be him.

*** Our Glengarry Glen Ross rule: But as we also wrote last week, under the Ames Straw Poll’s Glengarry Glen Ross rule, third place isn’t a good place to be: First place gets you a Cadillac El Dorado; second place gets you a set of steak knives; and third place -- you're fired. In fact, per NBC's John Bailey, the last two third-place finishers in Ames (Sam Brownback in '07 and Liddy Dole in '99) dropped out two months after the straw poll. 

*** Obama’s day: The president meets with business leaders at the White House to discuss the economy at 1:20 pm ET (it’s closed to the press). And then, at 2:35 pm, he welcomes the greatest NFL franchise in the land, the Green Bay Packers to the White House to celebrate their remarkable Super Bowl win earlier this year. Hey Bill Daley or David Plouffe, looking forward to the Aaron Rodgers autographed football (or baseball) that you'll be leaving in the NBC WH booth.

*** Obama’s day: The president meets with business leaders at the White House to discuss the economy at 1:20 pm ET (it’s closed to the press). And then, at 2:35 pm, he welcomes the Green Bay Packers to the White House to celebrate their Super Bowl win earlier this year. 

 *** Friday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up (live from Java Joes in Des Moines!): Debate reaction and straw poll predictions with Pawlenty 2012 Campaign Manager Nick Ayers, Obama 2012 Senior Strategist David Axelrod and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA)… More 2012 with the Washington Post's Dan Balz, National Journal's Beth Reinhard, Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz and Des Moines Register alumnus David Yepsen of Southern Illinois University… Plus a preview of msnbc's "Making the Grade" special (12 pm ET on Sunday) with msnbc's Tamron Hall and TheGrio.com's Jeff Johnson.

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 1 day 
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for Dem senators: 4 days
Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 88 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 178 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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“Representative Michele Bachmann and former governor Tim Pawlenty, both of Minnesota, used some of the harshest terms yet of the Republican presidential contest to challenge each other’s credentials last night in a high-energy nationally televised debate,” the Boston Globe writes. 

The Globe’s Johnson says Mitt Romney and Bachmann won the debate. 

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune: “Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann were anything but Minnesota Nice in Thursday's night presidential debate. The former governor and current congresswoman staked their claims to the GOP presidential nomination in a series of tart exchanges as they stood side by side during the televised debate in Iowa.”

The New York Post also leads with Bachmann vs. Pawlenty. 

The New York Times: “The debate ... came at a moment of increasing intensity in the Republican campaign. While the eight candidates were united in their criticism of Mr. Obama, with a particular focus on his economic policies and unemployment, the crosscurrents in Iowa overshadowed the larger issues in the race."

The Des Moines Register: “A full-out war of words broke out Thursday night as eight Republican presidential candidates turned on each other, jockeying for pole position in an ever-growing GOP field.”

More on winners, losers: “A handful of prominent Iowa Republicans interviewed by the Register thought former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich helped their causes. Pawlenty hurt himself with attacks on Bachmann, said U.S. Rep. Steve King, a western Iowa Republican. ‘He came out on the losing end,’ King said.”

Here are some of former Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen’s thoughts: “LOSERS: None.  ‘Nobody made big mistakes. They all did themselves well.’ BEST PERFORMANCES: Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Both were humorous and forceful, Yepsen said. OTHER THOUGHTS: Bachmann was a bit rigid and stuck to her talking points. However, she handled the question about a woman being submissive to her husband rather well. SURPRISE: Romney took rather few punches, surprising since he is viewed as the national frontrunner. ‘Nobody really laid a glove on him.’” 

The Hill: “Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Rep. Michele Bachmman (Minn.) had some heated exchanges and largely ignored the front-runner in the GOP field, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, in Thursday night’s Iowa presidential debate." 

Stu Rothenberg is protesting Ames: “Last week, I canceled my room reservation for the week of the Iowa straw poll. I am not going to Ames. With Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman not participating in what is already an event of dubious predictive value, the Ames event became little more than an opportunity to consume large amounts of beef, gossip and alcohol with my fellow journalists. … The odds that the eventual winner of the Iowa straw poll will be the GOP nominee next year are quite small (though not zero). … it is very hard to make the case that this year’s poll is a crucial test in the race to select the Republican nominee for president.”

BACHMANN: “Republican Michele Bachmann isn’t ceding ground in her Iowa birthplace to probable presidential rival Rick Perry,” AP writes. “Bachmann said yesterday she will appear at a GOP fund-raiser in Waterloo on Sunday, the same event that will serve as the Texas governor’s Iowa debut. Both will speak at the Black Hawk County GOP Lincoln Day Dinner.”

HUNTSMAN: The Salt Lake Tribune’s Burr writes, “In his presidential debate debut, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman defended his family business, his support for civil unions and whether he even belonged in the Republican field seeking the White House. Attempting to give a jolt to his stalling campaign, Huntsman cited his record in Utah and swiped at his fellow competitors for staying silent as the country was on the brink of defaulting.”

PAWLENTY: Roll Call’s Toeplitz leads with Pawlenty: “No more Mr. Minnesota Nice Guy. … Pawlenty had the most at stake in the lead-up to the Ames straw poll Saturday. Polls show him lagging, while Bachmann has overshadowed Pawlenty’s Iowa-or-bust campaign in recent weeks. Many Iowa Republicans say he must place in the top three slots in the straw poll to ensure his campaign’s survival.”

PALIN: GOP 12 notes: “Here's a fascinating number, buried in a new Fox News poll. By -3%, those who identify themselves with the tea party don't think Sarah Palin would make a good president. That's a shocking number, especially compared to the rest of the field.

PERRY: GOP 12’s Heinze looks at the case for and against Perry. He notes that “he floated the idea of letting states opt out of Social Security.  Here's a big problem with Perry -- he'll be extraordinarily easy for Democrats to paint as being too extreme for America.  Not only does he say controversial things, but he just seems so controversial saying them.”

The Texas governor was at an Austin TV station when the news broke of his planned Saturday announcement. (He even signed a copy of the AP newswire of the breaking news.) 

Charleston's hometown paper points out that the last time a candidate made a presidential announcement in town, it didn't work out in the end.

The Statesman delves into the influence of RedState ahead of Perry's Saturday speech to its annual convention.

ROMNEY: The Boston Globe: “As a presidential candidate, Republican Mitt Romney says he opposes revenue-boosting tax increases. But back when he was Massachusetts’ governor, he bragged about them.” Politico first reported the news. “A question left unanswered by the Politico report is whether Romney was in the room for the presentations to the rating agencies,” the Globe, which obtained a second presentation, writes. “A June 3, 2005, memo to Romney from the Executive Office for Administration & Finance states that the governor was scheduled to join the presentation to Fitch after the first hour and would deliver remarks of 10 to 15 minutes.”

Romney in his back and forth with hecklers at the state fair, per left-leaning blog Talking Points Memo (and on tape): "Corporations are people, my friend. Of course they are. Everything corporations earn goes to people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? People's pockets. Human beings, my friend."

“President Obama blasted Congress from the road on Thursday, saying things would be worse if lawmakers returned to Washington,” The Hill writes. “‘There is nothing wrong with our country,’ Obama said in a speech at a Holland, Mich. plant. ‘There is something wrong with our politics.’ Obama rolled out what sounded like a new campaign theme Thursday that makes Washington gridlock his foil and the obstacle to increased economic recovery.” 

“President Barack Obama sought to reassert economic leadership on Thursday by pledging to deliver new ideas every week to create jobs, and he slammed Congress for ‘bickering’ that hurts economic recovery,” Reuters adds. “In a passionate speech to auto industry workers aimed at deflecting public anger over policy gridlock in Washington, Obama said the refusal to put country ahead of party ‘has got to stop.’”

The AP: “Obama aired his frustration with the ways of Washington just before pivoting to his reelection campaign and a pair of big-money fund-raisers in New York City.”

“President Barack Obama collected some big bucks Thursday night at a star-studded fund-raiser in the New York home of movie mogul Harvey Weinstein,” the New York Post says. “Among the guests: actress Gwyneth Paltrow and her husband, Coldplay singer Chris Martin; comedian Jimmy Fallon, designer Vera Wang, singer Alicia Keys, and Vogue editor Anna Wintour, who co-hosted the event. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was also there as the guests packed around five tables in a basement room.”

MASSACHUSETTS: “Elizabeth Warren, the architect of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, sent her clearest signal yet yesterday that she will challenge Republican Scott Brown for his Senate seat,” the Boston Globe writes. “In a posting on a website supportive of the Democratic Party, Warren tells the tale of her Aunt Bee and Aunt Bert. Her father’s heart attack and the family’s struggle to pay its bills. Her battle scars from Washington, her empathy for middle-class families in Massachusetts, and lastly, her entreaties for ideas on fixing ‘a badly broken political system.’…  Although Elizabeth Warren’s posting does not explicitly say she will run, it dispels any uncertainty about her interest.”

“Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren sounds a lot like a woman moving toward a Senate run,” Roll Call writes. “In a post on the website Blue Mass Group titled "Coming Home," the longtime consumer advocate, who helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, indicated she would not go quietly back to teaching at Harvard Law School after leaving her position as assistant to the president earlier this month.”

All eyes are on the GOP hopefuls taking the stage tonight in Iowa ahead of Saturday's Ames Straw Poll.

The NBC political team will be live-tweeting the debate, offering minute-by-minute updates and analysis.

Tweets from Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann – as well as other NBC producers and correspondents – will appear in this space ahead of the 9 p.m. EDT debate.

**UPDATE** The event has ended. Check back here in the morning for First Thoughts!

Herman Cain will continue with his campaign regardless of how he fares in the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday, Cain told NBC News in an interview yesterday. 

Cain, who has had victories in other straw polls this year, said he considers Ames more of a barometer of his supporters’ enthusiasm, rather than an indication of how many votes he would get in the presidential caucuses. 

“If we come in first, second or third that would be spectacular," Cain said. "That would be a success. But if we come in fourth, fifth or six, that’s not a loss, because the straw poll is a barometer. But it is not the only thing we are looking at. We’ve already made the decision that we are going forward after the straw poll.” 

Cain also said that the looming presence of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has generated buzz for weeks over his potential presidential bid, will not make a difference in his campaign, pointing to what he characterized as the stalwart enthusiasm of those who already support him. 

“When people decide they’re supporting Herman Cain, we don’t get many defections," he contended. "We might get a few, but we don’t get a lot of defections just because other people come into the campaign."

He continued, “As an example, I have a lot of respect for Rep. Michele Bachmann, but our support hasn’t fallen off simply because she got in several weeks ago. And I don’t anticipate any fall off in our supporters if Governor Perry gets in." 

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will be performing with Cain at Cain’s straw poll booth on Saturday. Shortly after that announcement was made a few days ago, however, both Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum’s campaigns also announced that Huckabee, a bass player, would be performing with their entertainment at the straw poll as well. 

Cain said that was no slight to his campaign. 

“I think that’s just an indication of his statesmanship,” Cain said of Huckabee. “He’s not trying to alienate one or the other; he’s not trying to play favorites with one or the other.” 

Cain will provide the vocals, while Huckabee plays bass, but said he has not yet discussed with the former governor what songs they’ll play. 

“I gotta figure out what he can play and what I can sing and figure out what I can sing and he can play. We might just end up doing a duet of 'do do do do do do,' who knows. We have no idea,” Cain said, laughing.

At first, it was "stay tuned."

The campaign of Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- which finally can be dubbed as such -- officially begins on Saturday, when the Texas governor is expected to announce in primary state South Carolina that he's running for president.

Like several of his GOP rivals have done during this now-full-blown 2012 contest, the Perry team's piecemeal revelations to the press allowed the Texas governor receive numerous bites of the proverbial media taco.

On Monday, reporters found themselves chasing a Politico report indicating that Perry would "make his intentions clear" in South Carolina on Saturday. On Thursday morning, they combed over the text of an interview Perry did with Time magazine, in which he indicated that the turning point in his decision-making process occurred "about 45 days ago."

Reporters' inquiries to Perry's team about the precise details of how that decision would be revealed were met with urgings to "stay tuned." 

But mere hours before a major GOP debate in Iowa -- where Perry is scheduled to travel on Sunday and Monday -- all doubt was finally put to rest with confirmation that Perry is in fact all in, as was already apparent from his three-day primary state swing this weekend.
 
The announcement ensures that the Texas governor, who is not participating in the Ames Iowa debate or straw poll contest, will nonetheless have a prominent presence in both events.

President Obama's speech today in Holland, MI was billed to be about jobs and the advanced battery facility there at Johnson Controls Inc. that received money from the stimulus, creating more than 150 jobs. But his remarks also served as a jab at the gridlock in Congress after S&P's recent downgrade of America's credit rating.

“Unfortunately, what we've seen in Washington the last few months has been the worst counter partisanship, the worst kind of gridlock. And that gridlock has undermined public confidence and impeded our efforts to take the steps we need for our economy. It's made things worse instead of better.”

Obama continued, “There is nothing wrong with our country; there is something wrong with our politics.”

And unlike earlier this week, when it seemed the president was unwilling to directly criticize Congress for this gridlock and its responsibility for the S&P downgrade, today he was clear about where he places the blame. 

“This downgrade that you're reading about could've been entirely avoided if there had been a willingness to compromise in Congress,” he said. 

“We can't afford to play games, not right now; not when the stakes are so high for our economy," Obama added. "And if you agree with me, it doesn't matter if you're a Democrats or a Republican or an independent -- you've got to let Congress know. You've got to tell them you've had enough of the theatrics, you've had enough of the politics, stop sending out press releases, start passing some bills that we all know will help our economy right now. That's what they need to do. They've got to hear from you."

But the president said he has no intention of calling Congress back to work during its August recess. “There's been a lot of talk in Washington right now that I should call Congress back early.” he stated,  “The last thing we need is Congress spending more time arguing in D.C. What I figure is they need to spend more time out here listening to you and hearing how fed up you are.” 

Those lines were met by applause.

A close to the campaign confirms to NBC News that Texas Gov. Rick Perry will formally announce his intention to run for president at the Red State Convention in Charleston, SC on Saturday.

This news comes just hours before the other GOP presidential candidates are scheduled to debate in Ames, IA -- as well as two days before many are competing in the Ames Straw Poll.