Despite the July 4th holiday, the Senate is in. President Obama engages in deficit talks Wednesday - and holds a Twitter town hall, a new jobs report, and the candidates march on Independence Day.
Special thanks to Alex Moe on her last day as Tim Russert Fellow. But we'll still be seeing her byline.
Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss how the various parties involved over the debt ceiling debate - President Obama, Congress, Democrats, Republicans - could win or lose it.
Thanks to Steeler Fan-380417 for the question!
Another summer of Obama’s discontent?… How the White House is trying to minimize an annual ritual for Team Obama: summer political pain… Will Geithner leave? Can he?… Where things stand in the GOP race… Romney backtracks on Obama attack… Pawlenty and the shutdown in MN… Huntsman’s 2ndQ haul: $4.1 million (though almost half of it comes from his own money)… Romney camp confirms it will raise less than $20 million… And how big will Obama’s quarter be?
*** Another summer of Obama’s discontent? In the five years we’ve been covering Barack Obama on the national stage -- first as a presidential candidate, now as the president -- he’s always experienced his toughest months in the summer, particularly in July. In the summer of ‘07, he was trailing Hillary Clinton in the primary horserace, and donors were whining about lack of movement; in the summer of ‘08, he saw his poll lead over John McCain narrow as he struggled not to look like he was being coronated; in the summer of ‘09, we saw those health-care town halls; and in the summer of ‘10, the Greek debt crisis and the BP spill helped lock in what was going to be a brutal midterm season for the Democrats. You’ve been able to see it in his poll numbers, too. The summer of ’09, according to the NBC/WSJ survey, was when Obama’s approval rating declined from the 60s to the low 50s. And in the summer of ’10, it went from the low 50s to the mid-40s. He’s now at 49%, per our latest poll.
*** How the White House is trying to minimize any summer pain: And this summer has the potential to be another summer of Barack Obama’s discontent, especially with the polarizing and high-stakes debate over the debt ceiling. But the White House is doing a few things to try to minimize any damage. For starters, they’re not traveling overseas as they did in the summers of ’09 and ’10; don't underestimate the impact of the president's absence and the impact of him being in DC this year to be more responsive to Capitol Hill madness. In addition, they’re trying to reframe the debate on their terms -- something they never were able to do on health care. Wednesday’s news conference was the first try to be on offense; it's why it took many by surprise. All that said, Obama IS headed to Camp David for the weekend after scolding Congress to roll up its sleeves on the debt ceiling…
*** Will Geithner leave? Bloomberg News was the first to report it yesterday. “[Geithner] signaled to White House officials that he’s considering leaving the administration after President Barack Obama reaches an agreement with Congress to raise the national debt limit, according to three people familiar with the matter.” But in an appearance with former President Bill Clinton at a Clinton Global Initiative event last night, Geithner said he would remain in his position for the "foreseeable future.” Bottom line: We're told it's accurate that Geithner is “thinking about it," but we're also told not to read as much into it as some others are. This is personal for Geithner; it's about living in DC. He actually is very close to the president and his political team.
*** Can he leave? But it would be a big surprise if Geithner did actually leave before the election. Why? Do note that confirming a new Treasury secretary would be very difficult -- and painful -- for the White House, because the confirmation hearings would only serve to re-litigate the administration’s economic policies at a time the presidential campaign is getting started. Obama cannot afford this, period. And if Geithner did leave, other cabinet secretaries who also may be burning out would raise their hand, too. It's a snowball effect that would take a toll on the West Wing. Of course, the West Wing is still struggling with USING its Cabinet secretaries effectively; perhaps this Geithner scare will re-focus those efforts.
*** Where things stand in the GOP race: Heading into the July 4 holiday weekend, here’s how we see the emerging GOP presidential contest. Mitt Romney is the strong yet still-vulnerable front-runner. (But will that last through the year? Since ’04, no summer leader -- Dean, Clinton, or Romney himself -- has gone on to win the nomination.) Michele Bachmann, as we predicted, has established herself as the early anti-Romney. (But can the congresswoman, who’s never held statewide office, hold up to the scrutiny?) Tim Pawlenty has seen his stock drop over the last few weeks. (Can he rebound with a strong performance in the Ames Straw Poll? The pressure is on…) And we’re still not sure what to make of Jon Huntsman’s candidacy just yet. (He has the potential to put pressure on Romney in NH and FL, but will he be a factor?) And then there’s Rick Perry waiting in the wings. (The chances of him getting in are greater than not.)
*** Romney backtracks on Obama attack: As we reported last night, Romney -- at his press avail in Allentown -- backtracked on the claim he’s made over the past couple of weeks that Obama has made the economy worse. Here was Romney at the debate in New Hampshire: "[T]he president's failed. He did not cause this recession, but he made it worse." And here he was in New Hampshire on Monday: "He didn't create the recession, but he made it worse and longer." But when asked by NBC's Sue Kroll if the economy was really worse than it was in '09 -- with the economy now growing instead of declining, with the Dow at 12,000-plus instead of in a free-fall, and with the unemployment rate (though still very high) down a full point since Oct. '09 -- Romney changed his tune. "I didn't say that things are worse."
*** Pawlenty and the shutdown in Minnesota: Washington isn’t the only place where Democrats and Republicans are locked in a budget stalemate. The government of Minnesota shut down yesterday. (And when you throw in the NFL and NBA stalemates, there’s A LOT of conflict out there.) Pawlenty, the state’s ex-governor, held a news conference on the state’s shutdown. But as the New York Times notes, Minnesota’s stalemate is a potential problem for him. “[T]he potential of a shutdown in the state that Mr. Pawlenty led until six months ago provides fresh ammunition to his Democratic critics and, potentially, to his Republican rivals. Democrats blame Mr. Pawlenty for budget maneuvers that they say helped cause a $5 billion budget shortfall. Mr. Pawlenty says runaway spending by the Legislature and the Democratic governor is to blame.”
*** Huntsman’s haul: $4.1 million: Huntsman became the first 2012 presidential candidate to unveil what he/she raised in the 2nd quarter. NBC has confirmed from the campaign that he raised $4.1 million in the quarter, with "less than half" of the amount coming from Huntsman's own personal money. (Translation: He will officially raise a bit more than $2 million when you take out his personal contribution.) Huntsman has been in the race for just two weeks, and this is the amount he raised in that time. Because of his late start, he doesn't officially have to file until the 3rd quarter. Per the campaign, this is all primary money.
*** Will Romney really raise less than $20 million? As for Romney, his campaign told First Read yesterday that his 2nd quarter haul wouldn’t exceed $20 million. The campaign has cited the poor economy, but raking in LESS than what he raised in the 1st quarter of 2007 (a bit more than $20 million) would be surprising and disappointing for someone who’s been running for president for much of the past six years (2006 through 2011).
*** Will Obama have a big quarter? Meanwhile, the thrust of a Politico piece on Obama’s 2nd quarter fundraising is similar to what we’ve written: that Team Obama will probably have a big quarter. “Several Democratic fundraisers, speaking on condition of anonymity, predicted that the campaign would easily surpass its goal of raising $60 million. That would best George W. Bush’s record-breaking $50.1 million haul for the third quarter of 2003, a pre-election year record for a presidential hopeful. ‘They are going to be fine,’ said one Washington-based Democratic rainmaker. ‘The big money is a little pissed, but it’s coming on board… The small donations are coming in strong.’” And consider: With the campaign reporting 491,000 individual donations, an average contribution of $150 gets you nearly $74 million, while an average contribution of $200 gets you $98 million. Obama’s average donation in the 2nd quarter of 2007: a little more than $200.
*** On the 2012 trail over the July 4th holiday: Ron Paul today is in New Hampshire… Cain today is in Ohio… Bachmann spends Saturday, Sunday, and Monday in Iowa… Huntsman and Romney will both be in New Hampshire on the 4th… And Gingrich spends his 4th in Iowa.
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 43 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 74 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 130 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 220 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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“By comparing Republicans to his children and challenging them to “get it done,” Obama might have mollified Democrats to the point that he can negotiate more with Republicans on taxes, these political strategists say,” The Hill writes.
“At a fundraiser for his 2012 re-election campaign in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania, Obama said he was busy ‘attacking the country's problems’ while his Republican opponents were targeting him,” Reuters writes. “‘I've got a day job. I've got other things to do. But while I'm working, there are going to be candidates parading around the country. And they're going to do what they do, which is, they're going to attack,’ he told nearly 800 supporters at a downtown Philadelphia hotel, where tickets were $100 and up.”
The Philly Inquirer: “The 44th president of the United States came to town Thursday to raise a pile of campaign money, with a side of John's Water Ice. Lemon, if you must know. “
“First lady Michelle Obama visited Boston and Vermont yesterday, as she and President Obama made a final dash for cash before the close of a fund-raising quarter that will provide the first relative measure of the strength of the 2012 White House contenders,” the Boston Globe reports, adding, “The first lady’s stops yesterday were expected to raise more than $1.2 million for the Democratic National Committee, whose primary focus now is ensuring the president’s reelection. The president had his own fund-raising trip to Philadelphia.”
The Washington Post: “Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, an architect of the Obama administration’s economic strategy, has told the president that he may seek as soon as this summer to resign, according to people familiar with the matter.”
BACHMANN: Michele Bachmann’s three-day tour of Iowa begins tomorrow in Iowa City and has six stops in total, the AP writes.
HUNTSMAN: Jon Huntsman’s son, Will, was seen posing with Mitt Romney at a rally for the former Massachusetts governor on Friday, the Salt Lake Tribune reports. “Jon Huntsman’s campaign suggested people should not read anything into the appearance. ‘Will wanted to see another campaign event,’ Huntsman spokesman Tim Miller said when shown the photo. ‘He was having fun, and it was not his intention to be disrespectful in any way.’”
Because Huntsman filed his official notice of candidate later than the other presidential hopefuls, the details of the $4.1 million he raised this quarter will not be reported to the Federal Election Commission until the third-quarter reporting period ends on September 30, the L.A. Times points out.
MCCOTTER: “Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., will launch his presidential campaign on July 2, making him the third sitting member of the House to run for the White House in 2012,” USA Today reports.
PALIN: “According to the book-signing event's rules, Palin fans had to buy Bristol's book in order to get Sarah to sign one of her two books, ‘America by Heart’ or ‘Going Rogue,’” The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. (Via GOP 12.)
PAWLENTY: Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty blamed the Democratic legislature for the state’s government shutdowns in both 2005 and now, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports. “The equivalence is this both in '05 and now -- You had Democrats demanding that we raise taxes and raise spending, " Pawlenty told reporters at the Minneapolis/St. Paul airport as he returned from a campaign swing in Florida.
PERRY: “An advocacy group that wants Republican Gov. Rick Perry of Texas to run for president is seeking a presence at the Iowa straw poll in August. Americans for Rick Perry is taking steps to buy a vendor spot, organizer Bob Schuman told The Des Moines Register on Thursday.”
ROMNEY: “Standing before the locked gate of a steel plant that President Obama once visited while promoting his economic stimulus plan, Mitt Romney pointed to weeds and boarded-up windows and called the president’s handling of the economy a failure,” the New York Times writes of Romney’s speech in Allentown, PA yesterday.
The Center for Responsive Politics finds that Mitt Romney’s former deputy finance director created three super PACs late this month, in Iowa, Florida, and South Carolina. The super PACs can raise unlimited money from corporate, union and individual donors to support or oppose candidates, but cannot donate directly to candidates. It is unclear, CRP wrote, whether the PACs are designed to alone support Romney’s candidacy.
His “haul that will almost certainly exceed that of all of his Republican rivals, but it won’t top the amount the former Massachusetts governor raised during the first fund-raising period of his previous campaign, when he was less well-known on the national stage,” the Boston Globe writes. “The lower take shows that Republican donors are not giving as much, either because they are unenthusiastic about the field - and its national front-runner - or because the economic downturn is hindering fund-raising. Romney also had seven fewer days to raise money this time, because of when he formed his campaign committees.”
SANTORUM: Rick Santorum will visit ten cities in Iowa between July 5 and 7 as part of his “Courage to Fight for American Jobs” tour, in which he will sell his plan to revitalize the manufacturing sector.
“The Senate canceled its planned July Fourth recess on Thursday, but partisan divisions remained razor sharp as the clock ticked on efforts to strike a deal to avoid a government default and trim huge federal deficits,” AP writes, adding, “Despite the Senate's schedule change, there was no indication the two sides had progressed in resolving their chief disagreement.”
Real mature… “Politics in the Senate took a turn for the absurd Thursday, as the GOP boycotted the Senate Finance Committee’s ‘mock markup’ of trade legislation because they said it would make it difficult for them to start their July Fourth recess — which itself had been curtailed earlier in the day,” Roll Call writes.
I want my way… “Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), fresh off an attention-grabbing mini-filibuster earlier this week, objected Thursday to Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) attempt to bring a resolutions on Libya to the floor,” Roll Call reports. “Johnson and a group of other Republicans took to the floor to protest considering any bill other than legislation addressing the deficit.”
The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s front-page headline: “Broken deals, bitter words and a state shuts down.”
“On the surface, Thursday’s Federal Election Commission ruling to rein in super political action committees looks like a victory for tough campaign finance laws. Reform advocates applauded the FEC for telling super PAC organizers that they may not rely on federal officeholders or party officials to raise unlimited donations,” Roll Call writes. “But the FEC’s 6-0 ruling includes a little-noticed provision that frees up federal officials to attend and speak at fundraisers for such big-money PACs, events where PAC organizers may encourage donors to write larger checks than a lawmaker requests.”
NEW HAMPSHIRE: WMUR notes, “Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will appear in the same July 4th parade as his Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney.”
NEW YORK: Drill, baby, drill! “Gov. Cuomo is expected to approve "hydrofracturing" to drill for natural gas upstate after yesterday receiving a long-awaited report stating that the controversial process can be used safely outside the city's watershed,” the New York Post reports.
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