The AP: “Grasping for a deal on the nation's debt, President Barack Obama and congressional leaders remained divided Sunday over the size and the components of a plan to reduce long term deficits. Saying "we need to" work out an agreement over the next 10 days, the president and lawmakers agreed to meet again Monday. Obama also sought to use the power of his office to sway public opinion, scheduling a news conference for Monday morning, his second one in less than two weeks devoted primarily to the debt talks.”

Politico adds, “The president argued several times that negotiators should work toward a $4 trillion package for reducing the deficit rather than the smaller one favored by Republicans, calling on them to stand up to their base to get it done. He said both parties would suffer politically, but they need to do something substantial, said a third Democratic official familiar with the meeting. ‘If not now, when?’ the president said to the group, according to the official.”

The Washington Post: “Both sides appeared Sunday to dig further into their positions, leaving the talks deadlocked, a historic default looming and a fragile economy increasingly vulnerable to the consequences of Washington’s entrenched partisanship and ideological divide over taxes and entitlements.”

 “Obama's push for a $4 trillion package was shot down by House Speak John Boehner's warning that only a smaller package - which carries no tax hikes - stands a chance of passing,” the New York Daily News writes.
The top story in the Boston Globe: “Benefits at risk, Geithner warns.” Geithner said on Face the Nation: “On August 2d, we’re left running on fumes. We have no capacity to borrow… We have to act; Congress has to act ahead of that point. If they don’t act, then we face catastrophic damage to the American economy.’’

Bill Daley, the president’s chief of staff on ABC, per Roll Call: “Everyone agrees that a number around $4 trillion is the number that will send — make a serious dent on our deficit. It will send a statement to the world that the U.S. has gotten hold of their problems… That’s the president’s commitment. That’s what he wants to see.”

“President Obama’s apparent willingness to discuss Social Security cuts in the debt-ceiling negotiations with Congress has angered labor unions and could cause them to withhold support for Democrats in the next election,” The Hill writes. “‘I think this is a huge political mistake for Democrats,’ Chuck Loveless, legislative director for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME)” said. It wasn’t just AFSCME, representatives of the SEIU and AFL-CIO expressed similar concerns.

“Many of the 22,000 public employees out of work in Minnesota’s budget impasse say they will get through the extended layoff by tapping into personal savings, making household spending cuts, and relying on a spouse’s income or unemployment checks,” AP writes. “But others are looking for new jobs, creating the potential for a brain drain that would be one more negative from the nation’s longest state government shutdown in a decade.”

The New York Times looks at Boehner’s leadership. “His decision on Saturday night to abandon the comprehensive deficit-reduction package, citing the White House’s insistence on tax increases, was a sharp reversal. It highlighted the challenge he faces in persuading his party to tolerate any compromise on government spending and exposed the fissures within his own leadership team over how to proceed. Had Mr. Boehner forged ahead with a plan that fell flat with his rank and file, it could conceivably have led to a challenge of his leadership position, and it would certainly have undermined confidence among conservatives in his ability to lead the Republicans.”

Check out this quote, via Politico, from GOP lawmaker: “It’s crazy to think the speaker was considering a trillion [dollars] in tax increases. After all, we’re the anti-tax party,” the lawmaker said. “Cantor brought him, the economy and our party back from the abyss. Cantor is strengthened, clearly. And it’s another example of the speaker almost slipping beyond the will of the GOP conference.”

More from Politico: “Boehner’s handling of his duties as speaker certainly diverge from recent precedent. Unlike his immediate predecessors — California Democrat Nancy Pelosi and Illinois Republican Dennis Hastert — Boehner does not rule the restive House Republican Conference; he merely presides over it.”

Roll Call adds, “Boehner’s Conference, increasingly swayed by its tea party freshmen, would not be sold on any sort of tax reform, according to sources familiar with recent intraparty meetings, and both Republicans and Democrats emerged from Sunday’s gathering saying the leaders will focus on the package Vice President Joseph Biden had been negotiating with a bipartisan group before it broke down last month.”

“Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi, who were shut out of the fiscal 2011 budget negotiations, are making their views loud and clear on the debt-ceiling talks,” The Hill writes.

Vengeance, thy name is Inhofe.

Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann, “two top Republican presidential contenders were left red faced Sunday for signing a pledge against same-sex marriage that also suggests black families were stronger during slavery,” the New York Daily News reports. Here’s what the pledge said: "Slavery had a disastrous impact on African-American families, yet sadly a child born into slavery in 1860 was more likely to be raised by his mother and father in a two-parent household than was an African-American baby born after the election of the USA's first African-American President.”

The Family Leader, a socially conservative group that is asking Republican candidates to sign its pledge “The Marriage Vow,” apologized for referring to slavery in the vow when providing support for its claim that “the Institution of Marriage in America is in great crisis.” The Washington Post: “One piece of evidence it offered was the claim that a black person born into slavery ‘was more likely to be raised by his mother and father in a two-parent household than was an African-American baby born after the election of the USA’s first African-American president.’” The group has since removed the reference.

BACHMANN: She leads in a new Iowa poll, 25%-21% over Mitt Romney. Pawlenty and Cain are a distant third with 9% each. Paul grabs 6%, Gingrich 4%, Santorum 2%, and Huntsman 1%.

She played the role of front runner, by taking the higher ground in a response to Pawlenty’s criticism of her on “Meet the Press”: "This is an election about the future of our nation - one where voters will have to decide who is best equipped to lead our nation by looking at our records, as well as our vision for the nation. Instead of negativity, I want to focus on my accomplishments."

CAIN: “Former corporation chieftain Herman Cain edged out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in The Washington Times/Conservative Leadership Conference straw poll in Henderson, Nev., on Saturday” the Washington Times writes. “But, the surprise was Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Mr. Cain and Mr. Romney are declared 2012 nomination candidates, but Mr. Perry— who has not said whether he will enter the fray — nonetheless placed third in the poll.”

HUNTSMAN: Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad said if he saw Jon Huntsman at this week’s annual National Governors Association meeting, he would “tell him what a stupid mistake he’s making” in skipping the Iowa caucuses, Deseret News reports.

Huntsman is campaigning in South Carolina today, his second trip to the first-in-the-South primary state, The State reports.

Huntsman tells Politico that his frequently seen denim jackets date back to his original run for governor in 2004 and “carry a certain good karma since I’ve never lost an election wearing them.”

While in Florida on Saturday, Huntsman said that the presidency goes through the Sunshine State, NBC’s Lauren Selsky notes. “I've come to find that if you own the I-4 corridor, you own Florida, and if you own Florida you own the presidency. And that's where we're going.”

PALIN: In the magazine’s cover story, Sarah Palin tells Newsweek that she thinks she can win a national election.

PAWLENTY: The former Minnesota governor took aim at Bachmann, a congresswoman from the same state: "I like Congresswoman Bachmann. I've campaigned for her. I respect her. But her record of accomplishment in Congress is non-existent," Pawlenty said on NBC's "Meet the Press," per the New York Daily News. "We're not looking for folks who just have speech capabilities," he said. "We're looking for who can lead a large enterprise in a public setting and drive it to conclusion. I have done that, she hasn't."

The Minnesota budget crisis may have come in the “nick of time,” writes USA Today, pointing out that the shutdown has provided Pawlenty with a platform to distinguish himself from the rest of the field by touting “his tight-fisted stance toward spending during a shutdown of his own in 2005.”

Pawlenty announced the support of Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine today.

PERRY: Associates of Texas Gov. Rick Perry have been reaching out to prominent operatives in South Carolina, including former GOP chairman Katon Dawson, who was contacted “about an hour” after Dawson stepped down as Newt Gingrich’s campaign manager last month, USA Today writes.

Perry is also calling Iowa operatives, Politico reports.

ROMNEY: The Los Angeles Times examines Romney’s job creation record as Massachusetts governor -- or lack thereof. “During the years he was governor, the state ranked among the last in the nation in job creation. The percentage increase in jobs — about 1% — was lower than in all but three states, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In worse straits were Ohio, suffering the ongoing deterioration of its manufacturing infrastructure; Michigan, beset then by the decline of the auto industry; and Louisiana, devastated by Hurricane Katrina.”

Former Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith will formally back Mitt Romney today, Politico writes.

IOWA: The Washington Post’s Cillizza looks at the early odds of the Ames straw poll.

SOUTH CAROLINA: “South Carolina Republicans are starting the countdown to their 2012 first-in-the-South GOP presidential primary with nearly $253,000 in cash on hand,” the AP writes. The contest is estimated to cost the party $1.5 million.

The FEC reveals which candidates raised the most money and Democrats look to hold a California Congressional seat in a special election.  Plus, the Medal of Honor is awarded, and check out our Twitter Town Hall.

By msnbc.com's Tom Curry:  How will Friday’s depressing employment report affect Sunday’s debt limit talks between President Obama and congressional leaders?

Too early to tell for sure but consider how bad the news was: with 14.1 million seeking work and unable to find it, there are now 5.6 more people unemployed than three summers ago, in June of 2008.

At first blush the reaction was true to form – party leaders blamed their opponents and reverted to their economic dogma – seeming to harden their positions going into Sunday’s parley.

Republicans argued that the moribund economy cannot tolerate any tax increases, saying such a move would siphon off money that might be used for spending and investment.

“As we address the debt limit increase we shouldn’t do so in a way that raises taxes and impedes the ability of small businesses to create jobs and get people back to work,” said House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

In a mirror image, Dems used the new jobs data as evidence that no, really, it is spending cuts that would further depress the sickly economy – even though big reductions in spending are at the heart of what Obama and congressional leaders are negotiating about on Sunday.

A leading Democrat, House Budget Committee ranking member Rep. Chris Van Hollen told NBC’s Chuck Todd, “The disappointing jobs numbers this morning underscore what a lot of us have been saying, which is that even as we work to come up with a plan to reduce the deficit over the next ten years, we (should) do nothing in the short term to harm the economy – and deep, immediate cuts would do just that.”

So in Sunday’s talks, Obama and House Speaker John Boehner will find themselves squeezed even more tightly between the true believers in their own ranks.

How can future deficits be reduced if most GOP members resist raising more revenue either through higher tax rates or by cutting deductions and credits – most of which go to middle-and upper-income people?

And conversely – how can deficits be reduced without cutting spending, which at least in the short term, most Democratic members resist doing, except in defense?

So instead of the “deep, immediate cuts” that Van Hollen warned against, Obama and Boehner could try to design a plan that made smaller cuts in the next year or two and deeper cuts starting in say, 2014 or 2015. And likewise they could propose revenue increases that would take effect only in 2014 and 2015.

But the question then would be: would bond market investors find such a plan credible in reducing the government’s growing debt burden?

Van Hollen seemed to reject one idea that has been much discussed in recent days as part of the debt/deficit parley – changing the inflation index used to cost of living adjustments for Social Security recipients.

“I’m not saying we’re going to tinker with COLA,” he told Todd.

Von Hollen reverted to the familiar Democrat argument: income tax rates, at least for upper-income people, ought to be lifted to where they were when Bill Clinton left office.

He also said people earning over $500,000 a year should begin to have their itemized deductions phased out.  

A deduction limiting proposal similar to what Van Hollen described would raise $1.1 trillion over ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. It would affect about one out of every four taxpayers.

Today’s jobs report was followed by a steady stream of responses from Republican presidential candidates criticizing President Obama’s economic stewardship. In statements released by their campaigns, several candidates laid blame on specific members of the president’s administration.

“If David Plouffe were working for me, I would fire him and then he could experience firsthand the pain of unemployment,” Mitt Romney said in a statement, referring to comments from Plouffe, President Obama’s chief economic adviser, that “People won’t vote based on the unemployment rate, they’re going to vote based on: ‘How do I feel about my own situation?”

“His comments are an insult to the more than 20 million people who are out of work, underemployed or who have simply stopped looking for jobs,” Romney’s statement continued.

White House press secretary Jay Carney defended Plouffe's statement today, saying Plouffe meant that "most people do not sit around their kitchen table and analyze GDP and unemployment numbers.  They talk about how they feel their own economic situation is."

Rep. Michele Bachmann went after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

“Amidst this economic freefall, it should not be lost that the architect of the President's failed economic policies, Timothy Geithner, will head for the door after he attempts to cement the President's legacy of massive spending and debt by raising the debt limit another $2.4 trillion dollars. We can only hope that the President will be right behind him after the next election,” she wrote.

Herman Cain said he agreed with the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, Austan Goolsbee, who emphasized the need for private sector recovery, but criticized the Obama administration for not doing more to enact such policies.

“According to President Obama's own former economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, the private sector must lead this recovery. I agree with Mr. Goolsbee, but wonder why if the Obama Administration acknowledges this economic truth, they still fail to enact business-friendly policies that would get America's job creators hiring again.”

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter blamed both President Obama and Romney, his a fellow Republican presidential contender.

“Inflation is rising. Real wages are declining - everywhere except at the Obama White House. To Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney's big government and bailout banks, this is an economic statistic. To Main Street, this is real suffering.”

Jon Huntsman demurred from taking the president on directly - referring only to the failures of “this Administration.”

“The American people have been extraordinarily patient in waiting for the better and brighter times promised to them by this Administration. Their patience has rightly worn thin. We need free-market, pro-growth policies to spark a wave of job growth – the same policies we implemented in Utah to make it the fastest-growing state in the nation. America needs new leadership to turn our country around."

Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum also talked about what they would do differently as president.

“I will turn around the economy as president by setting bold growth goals and implementing specific proposals to achieve them,” Pawlenty said.

Santorum ticked off a few policies he proposed as part of his economic plan: “eliminate the corporate tax burden for U.S. manufacturers, streamline the patent and FDA approval process, and increase incentives for research and development would do.” He said he looked forward to having a debate with President Obama over jobs.

Speaking in the Rose Garden today, President Obama said working out a debt deal would help stabilize the economy, even as he characterized the debt ceiling debate as an inside-the-Beltway distraction from the high unemployment rate.

"Over the last couple of days, the debate here in Washington has been dominated by issues of debt limit," the president said, adding that what matters most to him is getting the economy "on a sounder footing."

But he went on to link a deal on the debt ceiling to the prospect of a lower unemployment rate.

"The sooner we get this done, the sooner that the markets know that the debt limit ceiling will have been raised and that we have a serious plan to deal with our debt and deficit, the sooner that we give our businesses the certainty that they will need in order to make additional investments to grow and hire," Obama said.

He also attributed the 9.2% unemployment rate and slow job growth to factors like natural disasters, high gas prices, and austerity measures around the United States and in Europe, all of which he said have made businesses "hesitant to invest more aggressively."

The president reiterated his desire, first expressed in a spirited press conference last week, for Congress to pass legislation that he said would help create jobs, like free trade deals with several countries and a bill that would spur infrastructure investment.

"All of them have bipartisan support.  All of them could pass immediately.  And I urge Congress not to wait," Obama said.

In her weekly press briefing, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi echoed President Obama's frustration that Congress hasn't passed those bills. On the debt ceiling negotiations, however, she dug in her heels that her caucus would not accept cuts to Medicare and Social Security, although she did say there was "some level of optimism" when it comes to forging a deal with Republicans.

White House press secretary Jay Carney also said today that Democrats' "cautious optimism hasn't changed in the last 24 hours," even as House Speaker John Boehner said that Democrats and Republicans remained far apart on a deal.

From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Yesterday, Rep. Peter King (R-NY) said Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) seemed positive about a debt ceiling deal when he briefed his GOP colleagues at their weekly closed conference meeting.  But this morning, speaking in front of reporters, the Speaker said he and the President were far apart from a deal and had hand gestures to show just how far apart they were.  (About two feet, in case you were wondering.)

With the backdrop of a disappointing jobs report Boehner said, "I think the situation that we face is pretty urgent. Matter fact, I think I would describe it as dire."  But in what seems to be a change from previous statements, Boehner agreed with the President and the Treasury Secretary that August 2nd is a definitive deadline. "While some think that we can go past August 2nd. I frankly think it puts us in an awful lot of jeopardy and puts our economy in jeopardy risking even more jobs," the Speaker said.

But the Speaker was his usual close-lipped self on details of where a deal lines in the space between him and the President. "There's a lot of conversations continuing."  The Speaker continued, "In all honesty I don't think things have narrowed.  I don’t think this problem has narrowed at all in the last several days."

From NBC's Shawna Thomas and Frank Thorp
The House of Representatives was originally scheduled to be in recess the week of July 18th, but now they're sticking around.  According to Rep. Peter King (R-NY), House Majority Leader Eric Cantor told the GOP conference yesterday about this change.   

From Cantor’s office:

Members are advised that the House will now be in session during the week of July 18.  This is a change from the original House calendar distributed in December of last year.  Legislative business for the week of July 18 will begin on Tuesday, July 19, at 2:00 p.m., with first votes postponed until 6:30 p.m.  Last votes for the week are expected to conclude no later than 3:00 p.m. on Friday, July 22.

Members are further advised that the House is expected to consider H.J.Res. 1, a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, during the week of July 18 - one week earlier than originally scheduled.  All Members are encouraged to support this important legislation to ensure that we begin to get our fiscal house in order.

The next 72 hours will be crucial in striking a big debt-limit deal… For now, there’s plenty of optimism a deal can be reached… Today’s bad jobs report: Economy added just 18,000 jobs in June, whilethe unemployment rate increases to 9.2%… GOP losing ground with seniors and in the Midwest?… Do independents really matter?… New York Times runs pre-obituary for Pawlenty… Rick Perry and Texas’ death penalty… Dems grab candidate to replace Weiner and are nervous about next week’s CA-36 special… “Meet the Press” to interview the two Tims -- Geither and Pawlenty… And T-Paw stumps in Iowa, while Huntsman campaigns in Florida tomorrow.

*** A crucial next 72 hours: Here’s a rare monthly Friday when the jobs report ISN’T the top story (even as bad as the numbers turned out to be). What is: the debt talks. The next 72 hours -- with staff work today and tomorrow, and with another congressional meeting on Sunday -- will be key to reaching a deal. As GOP Sen. Roy Blunt (who was a former top House leader and knows how to count votes) said yesterday, “They’ll get there pretty quickly, or they won’t get there.” Here’s what we learned from yesterday’s meeting: 1) the Democratic and GOP leaders agreed on the necessity to raise the debt ceiling by Aug. 2; 2) six of the eight congressional leaders in attendance said their preference was to go big in deficit reduction; 3) the two who said their preference was a mid-sized deal were Eric Cantor and Jon Kyl, veterans of the Biden talks where the $2.5 trillion deal was essentially written; and 4) Democrats don’t want significant cuts to come from Medicare and Social Security. And on that last point, President Obama meets with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi at 10:00 am ET. 

*** Plenty of optimism -- for now: Heading into these next 72 hours, we can say that there’s plenty of optimism that a big deal can be reached. The outstanding questions: Can Dems and Republicans persuade a sizable portion of their members to accept the deal? Will both sides give up their top campaign weapons (for the GOP, spending and taxes; for the Dems, Medicare)? And can Boehner get Cantor to back the big deal, because Boehner needs Cantor on his side especially if he's going to lose 70-75 Republican members? If there’s a framework by Sunday (or even an agreement to draw up the framework by NEXT Friday at the latest), it would be more an agreement on specific TARGET numbers, though not something that gets done immediately. In other words, there would be a mechanism to: 1) increase the debt ceiling, 2) make a lot of immediate cuts, 3) agree on some future cuts, and 4) tackle tax reform in the next three to six months to raise additional revenues that would take effect Jan. 1, 2013.

*** Another bad jobs report: As for today’s job report, the numbers aren’t good, despite earlier indications that the numbers would be better than last month. Per the AP, the economy added just 18,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate increased to 9.2%. The numbers are a devastating blow to the markets, to the American psyche, and to the political psyche in Washington. Obama makes a statement on the jobs report at 10:35 am ET.

*** GOP losing ground with seniors? Whether it’s due to the current Medicare debate, the end of the health-care fight (in which the GOP clubbed Democrats on Medicare), or something else, Republicans are losing ground with seniors. In our combined NBC/WSJ polls for the first half of this year (so 4,800 total interviews, including 711 seniors), 44% of seniors identify themselves as Democrats, versus 35% who identify themselves as Republicans. So a nine-point spread. But in our merged NBC/WSJ polls from 2010 (12,502 interviews, including 1,931 seniors), Democrats held just a two-point edge among seniors, 42%-40%. Why is this important? Because last year -- when they won control of the House and made gains in the Senate -- Republicans overperformed with seniors. According to the exit polls, the GOP won the senior vote by more than 20 percentage points, 59%-38%. But in 2008, McCain beat Obama among seniors by eight points, 53%-45%. And in 2006, Democrats split the senior vote, 49%-49%.

*** GOP losing ground in the Midwest, too: Something similar is happening in the Midwest, too. Per the merged 2011 NBC/WSJ polls, 42% of respondents in that region identify with Democrats, versus 31% who identify with Republicans. So an 11-point spread. Yet back in our 2010 merged data, the Dem edge was just four points, 41%-37%. What’s more, party identification in the other regions (Northeast, South, West) is essentially unchanged from 2010 to 2011. These shifts -- among seniors and folks in the Midwest -- explain why some Democrats don’t want the White House to budge an inch on Medicare and Social Security in the debt talks.

*** Do independents really matter? And since we’re geeking out with numbers today, political scientist Alan Abramowitz makes this counter-intuitive point: Independent voters don’t matter as much as some claim. “Research … has consistently found that the large majority of self-identified independents are ‘closet partisans’ who think and vote much like other partisans. Independent Democrats and independent Republicans have little in common. Moreover, independents with no party preference have a lower rate of turnout than those who lean toward a party and typically make up less than 10% of the electorate. Finally, independents don’t necessarily determine the outcomes of presidential elections; in fact, in all three closely contested presidential elections since 1972, the candidate backed by most independent voters lost.” Our one quibble: The FINAL 10% of undecided voters are true indies, and they can swing a close election.

*** A pre-obituary for Pawlenty? Why is the Ames Straw Poll so important for Tim Pawlenty, even if he and his campaign downplay his performance in it? Because he needs some good news to stop the early campaign obituaries. Today, the New York Times writes, “Tim Pawlenty was first in line to enter the Republican presidential race. He is now fighting to avoid becoming the earliest major candidate to be shown the door.” Ouch. Another ouch: Pawlenty said he hasn’t yet caught fire in Iowa because “this week is the first time that I’ve campaigned in earnest in Iowa” (when he’s campaigned plenty in the Hawkeye State). But T-Paw does get a favorable story in the Wall Street Journal op-ed pages from Kimberly Strassel. “Running in a highly conservative primary as the former head of a proudly liberal state—one perpetually beset by economic woes—certainly holds its downsides. But Mr. Pawlenty isn't shying away from that past. He's intent on turning his own feisty leadership of Minnesota into his main selling point for the nomination.”

*** Rick Perry and Texas’ death penalty: If Rick Perry decides to run for president, the death penalty will be an issue for him (see: Cameron Todd Willingham and the 2009 New Yorker piece on his execution). And last night, Texas executed a Mexican national, despite an appeal by the White House. The AP: “A Mexican national was executed Thursday evening for the rape-slaying of a San Antonio teenager after the U.S. Supreme Court turned down a White House-supported appeal to spare him in a death-penalty case where Texas justice triumphed over international treaty concerns… Police never told Leal after his arrest that he could seek legal assistance from the Mexican government under an international treaty, and his case had prompted appeals on what it could mean for other foreigners arrested in the United States and for Americans detained abroad. His appeals lawyers said such assistance would have helped his defense.”

*** Dems grab their Weprin to replace Weiner: For the Sept. 19 special election to fill ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner’s (D) old House seat, Democrats yesterday selected state Assemblyman David Weprin. Per the New York Daily News, "Weprin, who has close ties to the borough's political machine, will become the candidate to represent Congressional District 9, which spans sections of Queens and Brooklyn." And check this out: "'I've never tweeted in my life and I don't spend any time in the gym,' Weprin added in a slap at Weiner, who was forced to resign last month amid a salacious sexting scandal - including nude workout pics." Note: The winner of the Sept. 13 race probably won't be in Congress for long, given that this House seat probably won't survive redistricting.

*** Dems getting nervous about CA-36: And for next week’s special congressional run-off in California to replace ex-Rep. Jane Harman (D), Dems are starting to get a bit nervous about a race that -- at least on paper -- they should easily win. The contest is between L.A. City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) and businessman Craig Huey (R); Obama got more than 60% of the vote in the district in ‘08. "We’ve been saying for a while that this one is closer than people think – whenever you have a multi-millionaire willing to self-fund it’s never a slam dunk,” one DC-based Democratic operative emails First Read. “It was a safe seat for Jane, but not necessarily Dems."

*** Meet’s Sunday lineup: The two Tims: “Meet the Press” this Sunday interviews Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and GOP presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty. The program’s midweek “Press Pass” featured a conversation with Mort Zuckerman.

*** On the 2012 trail: Pawlenty today stumps in Iowa, hitting Waterloo and Cedar Rapids… On Saturday, Herman Cain and Gary Johnson address the Conservative Leadership Conference in Nevada, while Jon Huntsman campaigns in Florida.

Countdown to CA-36 special run-off: 4 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall primaries for GOP senators: 4 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general/primaries for Dem senators: 11 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for GOP senators: 32 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 36 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for Dem senators: 39 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 67 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 123 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 213 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
 
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Of the White House meeting with congressional leaders on the debt, AP writes, “Yesterday’s meeting came amid signals that the White House was willing to reduce costs for major benefit programs including Social Security and Medicare, while Republicans indicated they might consider new steps to raise government revenue.” And on some of the details: “While discussions on trimming the costs of entitlement programs had centered on Medicare, the health care program for older Americans, the White House is revisiting a proposal raised earlier in the negotiations to change the inflation measurement used to calculate Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, thus reducing annual increases, officials said yesterday.”

The New York Times: “Though the president and Congressional leaders did not close wide gaps on the issues of spending cuts or new tax revenues, officials briefed on the talks said, they emerged with a consensus to aim for the biggest possible deal — one resulting in up to $4 trillion in savings — and a recognition of the dire consequences of not acting before Aug. 2, when the government will lose its authority to borrow.”

Adds the Wall Street Journal: Such a deal would have to overcome many hurdles to pass a divided Congress in time to clear the way for a vote to raise the government's $14.29 trillion borrowing limit before Aug. 2. Treasury Department officials say that without a higher debt ceiling the government will begin to default on its obligations, including debt payments.

Obama adviser David Plouffe: “The average American does not view the economy through the prism of GDP or unemployment rates or even monthly jobs numbers,” he said, according to Bloomberg, via The Hill. “People won’t vote based on the unemployment rate, they’re going to vote based on: ‘How do I feel about my own situation? Do I believe the president makes decisions based on me and my family?’ ”

“The White House and congressional leaders lurched closer to a climactic showdown over the debt limit Thursday, as President Obama scheduled a Sunday meeting that could determine whether a broad deficit-reduction deal can be reached before time runs out,” The Hill writes.

While the White House and congressional leaders remained optimistic they could get a deal done on the debt by Sunday, Roll Call’s headline this morning: “House GOP, Democrats Still at Opposite Ends on Debt Bargaining.” The president acknowledged that both sides remain “far apart.”

Roll Call: “Senate Democrats, already divided on how to deal with Social Security, were caught off guard Thursday by a new push from the White House to include the senior safety net in a larger debt and deficit reduction deal.”

“Two senators from ethanol-producing states proposed yesterday to immediately end a tax credit for the corn-based fuel, agreeing to support shifting some of that money to debt reduction,” the AP writes. “Senators Amy Klobuchar, Democrat of Minnesota, and John Thune, Republican of South Dakota, along with ethanol opponent Senator Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California, have proposed diverting $1.3 billion of the money remaining for the tax break this year to pay for debt reduction. And $668 million will be used for incentives for the ethanol and biofuels industries.”

A resolution to raise taxes on millionaires advanced in the Senate. “Republicans helped push the resolution over an initial 60-vote hurdle on Thursday in a 74-22 vote, but GOP support for the resolution is far from certain in Monday's vote which requires the same threshold,” The Hill writes.

So much for that… “Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) won’t unveil his budget to the public this week after all, aides said Thursday,” Roll Call reports. “Conrad had said earlier in the day that the timing would be decided by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid after the Nevada Democrat and other Congressional leaders attended a morning meeting at the White House about raising the debt limit and reducing the deficit.”

“The House voted yesterday to bar military aid to Libyan rebels battling Moammar Khadafy but stopped short of prohibiting funds for US involvement in a NATO-led mission now in its fourth month,” the AP says.

“The IRS announced Thursday that it will suspend its examination of possible gift taxes owed for prior contributions to nonprofit advocacy groups, which are poised to be influential players in the 2012 elections,” Roll Call reports. One of us takes a look this morning on The Daily Rundown on the role outside groups, who in many cases can raise unlimited funds from anonymous donors, have played in the past and will likely play in 2012.

BACHMANN: The Pew Research Center tracked Michele Bachmann’s popularity in social media, finding that between June 26 and July 1, fully one third of links on blogs were to content about Bachmann.

GINGRICH: “Four days before featuring thrice-married former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich in its presidential lecture series, the Iowa Christian conservative group called The Family Leader made it clear that personal fidelity to one’s spouse should be a top priority for all presidential candidates,” IowaPolitics writes. Chuck Hurley, the president of the Iowa Family Center, a 501(c)3 organization that is part of the Family Leader, said, “We acknowledge and regret the widespread hypocrisy of many who say they defend marriage, yet turn a blind eye toward the epidemic of infidelity and the anemic condition of marriages in their own communities.”

HUNTSMAN: One day after Mitt Romney announced a list of endorsements from Utah, the former governor of that state, Jon Huntsman, released three endorsements from Massachusetts Republicans, according to a release sent out by his campaign.

PAWLENTY: In an editorial board meeting with the Des Moines Register, Tim Pawlenty said he hasn’t caught on in the first caucus state because “this week is the first time that I’ve campaigned in earnest in Iowa.” But the Register notes that Pawlenty has made more appearances there than any other candidate except former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. According to Politico, Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant said Pawlenty meant that the “preseason” is over and “we’re on the first of many campaign swings through the state doing lots of press and public events.”

Pawlenty criticized the findings of a committee, headed by former Vice President Walter Mondale and former Minnesota Gov. Arne Carlson, charged with giving recommendations on how to resolve the Minnesota budget stalemate: “This commission is the political equivalent of Jurassic Park. Their proposed solutions are antiquated, out of touch with today's realities and needs, and they won't work."

After an interview, Pawlenty asked a group of pop-culture bloggers to name their favorite Lady Gaga song. Clearly itching to answer the question himself, Pawlenty got the chance and showed that he knows his Gaga, the Washington Post writes. “Well you know, in terms of the beat, I like ‘Bad Romance,’” Pawlenty said. “I gotta say, even though she’s a little unusual, ‘Born this Way’ has some appeal. She’s actually very talented. Now if you go to the end of the HBO special, the Lady Gaga HBO special, and you watch her sing a cappella ‘Born This Way,’ she can sing. She can definitely sing. She’s talented.”

ROMNEY: An article in the Boston Globe suggests Mitt Romney relies on a small group of advisers for his foreign policy guidance – and is not exceptionally engaged in those issues, just as he stayed away from them on the campaign trail for the 2008 election. “A small group of Romney’s inner circle has held weekly conference calls to hash out recent and upcoming issues on foreign policy. Romney is on some of the calls, but generally they are coordinated through a staffer who collects the views of the advisers and prepares them for Romney to read later.”

London calling: “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) met Thursday with David Cameron, the United Kingdom's prime minister, during a trip to London,” The Hill notes, adding, “The meeting has symbolic importance, if nothing else, as a meeting between a potential would-be president and the prime minister of a top ally of the United States.”

IOWA: The politics of corn: “Federal subsidies for corn ethanol have long been considered untouchable in Washington -- not least because politicians want the votes of Iowans, who have traditionally held the first nominating caucuses in the contest for the presidency,” the New York Times writes. “But this year, cutting the budget deficit holds more allure than courting corn farmers, making a turning point in ethanol politics.”

NEW YORK: “New York Assemblyman David Weprin will be the Democratic nominee in the 9th district special election, a well-placed Democratic source in the Empire State confirmed Thursday,” Roll Call writes.

SOUTH CAROLINA: “A plan in which the South Carolina Elections Commission would run next year’s Republican Presidential Primary and bill the costs to the state GOP is taking shape,” the Southern Political Report writes. “The state legislature last week overrode Gov. Nikki Haley’s veto of a bill which included funding for the closely watched early primary, and Attorney General Alan Wilson ruled the commission could run the election.

After today's bipartisan meeting at the White House to discuss raising the debt ceiling, President Obama told reporters that the gathering was "very constructive," and he announced that congressional leaders will once again meet on Sunday.

"At that point, the parties will know where each other's bottom lines are," and they will see if they're in a position to begin the hard negotiating, the president said.

He cautioned, "Nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to," adding: "I thought that all the leaders came here in a spirit of compromise."

Obama concluded, "We have to get this done before the hard [debt-ceiling] deadline of Aug. 2."

The bipartisan White House meeting over the debt talks is now over.

The next leadership meeting will be Sunday, and staff will work together Friday and Saturday.

And the White House press office just announced President Obama will make a statement about today's talks around 1:00 pm ET.

By msnbc.com's Tom Curry:  With congressional leaders at the White House on Thursday for another debt limit parley with President Obama, here are some basic numbers to keep the debate in perspective:

As of the end of the day Tuesday, the Treasury had a cash balance of $78 billion.

Last year at about the same point, Tuesday, July 6, 2010, it had a cash balance of $224 billion and a year earlier on July 6, 2009 it had a cash balance of $257 billion. 

The Treasury and the Bipartisan Policy Center, an outside group, have each done estimates of the declining cash balance as the government creeps closer to the day – Aug. 2, according to the latest Treasury forecast – when the $14.29 trillion borrowing limit is reached and the Treasury has a zero cash balance.

It would then need to pay vendors, federal employees, etc. entirely out of the daily incoming cash flow.

In an analysis by former Treasury official Jay Powell, the Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that on Aug. 3, the day after the debt limit is likely to be reached, $12 billion in revenues would come in on that day, but the government would need to pay out $32 billion in benefits and to pay bills.

To avoid a cash crunch, Congress and Obama need to clinch a deal: change federal programs so as to cut deficits in future years, in return for Congress voting to raise the borrowing limit.

There were reports Thursday that Obama would seek deficit reductions of $4 trillion. That was the approximate number recommended by the Bowles-Simpson fiscal commission which the president appointed early last year.

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline projection, the cumulative deficits over the next ten years will be more than $6.7 trillion -- so a reduction of $4 trillion in future deficits would amount to nearly a 60 percent cut over that ten-year period.

But under the budget rules that govern CBO’s baseline, the forecasters must assume that income tax rates revert to their 2000 level, that the Alternative Minimum Tax is allowed to affect more and more middle-income taxpayers (something Congress has prevented in recent years), and that Congress makes the cuts it promised to make back in 1997 in payments to doctors in the Medicare program.

It’s probable that none of those things will happen. If they don’t, then the ten-year cumulative deficits will total nearly $12 trillion, CBO said. In that case, a $4 trillion cut would amount to a one-third cut in cumulative deficits.

A sticking point is how much of the deficit reduction should be in the form of spending cuts and how much in the form of higher revenues.

The increased revenues in any accord between Obama and congressional Republicans would most likely come not from increases in the top income tax rates, but by eliminating some tax credits and preferences – a course recommended by the Bowles-Simpson commission.

The two biggest tax preferences, according to the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation:

-- The exclusion from workers’ taxable income of their employers’ contributions for their health insurance premiums, tax-free compensation worth $117.3 billion this year.

-- The home mortgage interest deduction, worth $93.8 billion this year.

It would be surprising if either of those were part of a final accord between Obama and congressional leaders.

Due to the recession and nearly 14 million Americans still unemployed, revenues this year are still likely to be below where they were in 2007, when the government collected $2.568 trillion.

According to the CBO estimate released last March, the government will collect $2.23 trillion in revenue in the current fiscal year – 13 percent less than in 2007.

This year federal spending will amount to about 24 percent of gross domestic product while revenues will be 14.8 percent of GDP.

When Obama said to his Wednesday Twitter town hall audience, “We actually now have the lowest tax rates since the 1950s,” he was incorrect.

Today’s highest personal income tax rate, 35 percent, exceeds the top rate in 1992: 31 percent.

But he would have been correct to say that revenues as a percentage of GDP are the lowest since 1950, when they were 14.4 percent of GDP.

In a meeting with the House Republican Conference this morning, House Speaker John Boehner told members that a debt limit deal with the White House could be possible, “within the next few days.” According to a GOP aide in the room, Boehner said there was a “50-50 chance” of a deal actually happening, but that it would be contingent upon the White House on insisting no “new tax hikes.”

Rep. Peter King (R-NY) suggested to NBC News that there was a 48-hour window on a possible agreement that -- if not reached -- would delay a debt compromise for a significant time.

The news comes as Boehner and his Republican leadership colleagues head to the White House today to meet with President Obama, with the hope of outlining an agreement that could serve as a solid foundation for a final deal that could pass Congress and would reduce the nation’s deficit while extending its credit limit.

In advance of today's White House meeting on the debt talks, House Speaker John Boehner told reporters that comprehensive tax reform was “under discussion” in the negotiations between Republicans and the Obama White House. 

He said that tax reform on both the “corporate side and personal side” would make America “more competitive," calling it a job creator.

That Boehner admitted comprehensive tax reform is "under discussion" is a significant development -- coming on the heels of reports that the White House and Boehner have discussed a debt-limit deal that would significantly alter the current tax code in an effort to perhaps lower corporate and personal rates in exchange for eliminating certain deductions and broadening the tax base.

The BIG questions: Can this type of complex, large-scale agreement be reached by Aug. 2? And can it can be sold to the House GOP conference? The answers are still unclear, as Boehner and his Republican colleagues refused to answer the question of timing. Boehner also reiterated that as of now there is “still no agreement” on any compromise that would extend the nation’s credit limit.

The path the Obama White House will push for at today’s 11:00 am ET debt-talk meeting: going big ($4 trillion in deficit reduction)… Does going big mean Social Security is on the table?... White House pushes back, saying it’s open to “reasonable changes” to Social Security and Medicare that strengthen those entitlement programs… The GOP message on revenues is now all over the place… Snowe teams up with DeMint in WSJ op-ed… GOP expressing fundraising concerns for the presidential contest?... Bachmann’s on the air in Iowa… And DGA raises approximately $11 million in the first half of the year, which is half of the RGA’s haul.

*** Going big: At today’s 11:00 am ET bipartisan debt-talk meeting, President Obama will lay out three different paths to raise the debt ceiling, according to Democratic officials. One is the short-term increase ($1 trillion in cuts for a six- to nine-month ceiling hike) that Obama has already ruled out, saying it only kicks the can down the road. Two is a medium-sized deal that gets everyone past the 2012 elections (with about $2.5 trillion over 10 years of deficit reduction). And three is going big (with about $4 trillion in deficit reduction). The path that the White House seems to favor right now: going big. But there’s a realistic scenario where you combine paths two and three -- a medium-sized deal now with agreement on "triggers" or enforcement mechanisms to curb debt-GDP with the 2012 election essentially deciding on whether it's spending or taxes or both.

*** Is Social Security on the table? But as the Washington Post reports this morning, going big MIGHT mean putting reductions in Social Security and Medicare on the table -- along with Republicans putting significant revenue increases on the table. “Obama is proposing significant reductions in Medicare spending and for the first time is offering to tackle the rising cost of Social Security, according to people in both parties with knowledge of the proposal.” The New York Times adds, “The president’s renewed efforts follow what knowledgeable officials said was an overture from Mr. Boehner, who met secretly with Mr. Obama last weekend, to consider as much as $1 trillion in unspecified new revenues as part of an overhaul of tax laws in exchange for an agreement that made substantial spending cuts, including in such social programs as Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security — programs that had been off the table.”

*** The White House pushes back: But a top White House official pushes back that it won’t be making a “grand offer” on Social Security. The official explains that the president has always been open to “reasonable changes” to the entitlement programs as a way to strengthen them. Indeed, as Obama said in his fiscal-policy speech back in April, “[B]oth parties should work together now to strengthen Social Security for future generations. But we have to do it without putting at risk current retirees, or the most vulnerable, or people with disabilities; without slashing benefits for future generations; and without subjecting Americans’ guaranteed retirement income to the whims of the stock market.” Do Republicans want Social Security as part of the deal? Yes, the White House official responds. Is the White House taking it off the table? No, but it wouldn’t consider changes that are unbalanced and include slashing benefits.

*** The GOP revenue message is now all over the place: Strikingly, Republicans -- who are known for always being on message -- now seem to be all over the place on the issue of revenue. Over the past few weeks, the standard GOP response has been that any tax hike, any revenue increase is off the table. But Sen. Jon Kyl, the party’s No. 2 in Senate leadership, said yesterday that Republicans have offered up between $150 to $200 billion in increased revenues. "If the government sells something and gets revenue from it, that's revenue,” Kyl said. “If there is a user fee of some kind and we want to raise that to keep up with the times, that's revenue.” In addition, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has admitted he’s open to closing tax loopholes, but as long as there are offsetting tax cuts (which then wouldn’t reduce the deficit). It appears Republicans have been caught off guard by the White House's decision NOT to take the small deal, or even simply to push for the medium-sized plan now (2.5T). The last thing they want is for the president to look like the bigger deficit hawk -- which may explain why suddenly the once solid congressional Republican messaging wall on taxes is now showing some cracks.

*** The participants: Today’s 11:00 am ET bipartisan meeting takes place at the White House in the Cabinet Room. And there are eight participants besides Obama and Vice President Biden: House Speaker John Boehner, House Majority Leader Cantor, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Senate Minority Whip Kyl.

*** Snowe teams up with DeMint: Speaking of the debt talks, guess who has co-written a Wall Street Journal op-ed with GOP Sen, Jim DeMint on the need for a balanced budget amendment? None other than Olympia Snowe. It’s something that probably helps her against any 2012 primary challenge – and it’s help that Dick Lugar and Orrin Hatch haven’t gotten from DeMint. “If Congress increases our national debt ceiling next month without permanent, structural budget reforms, we will signal to taxpayers and bond markets alike that Washington is still in denial,” the two GOP senators write. “Whatever agreement is reached, everyone will know that future Congresses are not obligated to follow it. As a result, the only way to compel lawmakers to maintain their responsibility forever is a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.” But again, the substance of this op-ed is much less significant than the fact that Snowe -- worried about a Tea Party challenge -- got DeMint to do this.  

*** GOP money concerns? Turning to 2012, it’s a rather quiet day in the race for the Republican presidential nomination (Romney's still in London, folks). Perhaps the biggest story is the GOP worry -- after Romney’s underwhelming $18-million haul -- that it won’t be able to compete with Obama’s money machine. Writes Politico: “The Republican presidential fundraising reports are still coming in, but a clear winner has already emerged: Barack Obama. Whoever claims the GOP nomination is going to find it close to impossible to keep pace with the president’s fundraising juggernaut.” More from the story: “‘There’s not any doubt that Obama is going to raise more money than anybody has ever raised running for president,’ said Henry Barbour, RNC committeeman for Mississippi and the governor’s nephew. ‘Is that sobering? Sure it is. It’s a wake-up call.’” Others in the piece make the case that candidate fundraising is less important in the post-Citizens United world. Perhaps this is true. But ask John Kerry whether ACT's resources -- ACT was the Crossroads of 2004 -- would have been better used by the campaign itself. When you can't coordinate, it's much more difficult.

*** Bachmann’s on the air in Iowa: Also today, Michele Bachmann is up with her first TV ad in Iowa, and it’s mostly a bio spot. “As a descendant of generations of Iowans, I was born and raised in Waterloo, Bachmann says to the camera, per NBC’s Sarah Blackwill. “As a mom of five, a foster parent and a former tax lawyer -- and now a small business job creator -- I know that we can't keep spending money that we don't have. That's why I fought against the wasteful bailout, against the stimulus. I will not vote to increase the debt ceiling.” The campaign says it’s a “substantial” buy.

*** On the 2012 trail: All the activity is once again in Iowa… Pawlenty holds a town hall in Urbandale… And Santorum hits Sheffield, Fort Dodge, and Sioux City.

*** DGA raises approximately $11 million (half of the RGA’s haul): On Tuesday, the Republican Governors Association reported raising $22.1 million in the first half of this year -- more than it raised in all of 2007 (the last comparable gubernatorial election cycle). Now the Democratic Governors Association has released its figures for the first half of this year: approximately $11 million, which is more than double what it raised during this same point in ’07. But the RGA responds, “The RGA’s consistent and significant fundraising lead over the DGA is often overlooked, but it speaks volumes about the leadership Republican governors are providing our party.” 

*** Programming note: MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” which airs beginning at 1:00 pm ET, has an all-star lineup today. To discuss the budget talks: Schumer, Ryan, Van Hollen, and White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer. Also: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack (to discuss the new flood threat following the AZ and NM wildfires) and Sean O’Keefe (on the space shuttle).

Countdown to CA-36 special run-off: 5 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall primaries for GOP senators: 5 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general/primaries for Dem senators: 12 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for GOP senators: 33 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 37 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for Dem senators: 40 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 68 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 124 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 214 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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The Washington Post front-pages, “President Obama is pressing congressional leaders to consider a far-reaching debt-reduction plan that would force Democrats to accept major changes to Social Security and Medicare in exchange for Republican support for fresh tax revenue… As part of his pitch, Obama is proposing significant reductions in Medicare spending and for the first time is offering to tackle the rising cost of Social Security, according to people in both parties with knowledge of the proposal. The move marks a major shift for the White House and could present a direct challenge to Democratic lawmakers who have vowed to protect health and retirement benefits from the assault on government spending.”

The New York Times adds, “The president’s renewed efforts follow what knowledgeable officials said was an overture from Mr. Boehner, who met secretly with Mr. Obama last weekend, to consider as much as $1 trillion in unspecified new revenues as part of an overhaul of tax laws in exchange for an agreement that made substantial spending cuts, including in such social programs as Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security — programs that had been off the table.”

“Republicans showed signs of flexibility to break a budget impasse yesterday, but the White House raised the ante - pushing for more deficit reduction and taking a pugnacious tone casting the GOP as defenders of corporate tax giveaways,” AP writes.

Business groups to Congress -- get it done. “Major business groups are urging lawmakers to reach a deal as soon as possible to raise the debt ceiling, reflecting fears that the country is drawing perilously close to default. The groups are gathering signatures for a letter that tells lawmakers and President Obama that the time has come to increase the debt ceiling. The document, which was obtained by The Hill, says defaulting on the nation’s debt would throw the stock market into ‘disarray.’”

Turning to yesterday’s Twitter town hall… “So much for 140 characters or less,” the Boston Globe writes. “A president, it seems, gets to respond to a tweet on his own terms.” Obama acknowledged that Twitter’s all about brevity: “I know, Twitter, I’m supposed to be short.” But, said White House Press Secretary Jay Carney: “He’s the leader of the free world. He decides how short his answers will be.”

The New York Times notes that Obama’s answers averaged 2,099 characters.

The Boston Globe reveals: “The elder Barack H. Obama, a sophomore at the University of Hawaii, had come under scrutiny by federal immigration officials who were concerned that he had more than one wife. When he was questioned by the school’s foreign student adviser, the 24-year-old Obama insisted that he had divorced his wife in his native Kenya. Although his new wife, Ann Dunham, was five months pregnant with their child - who would be called Barack Obama II - Obama declared that they intended to put their child up for adoption.”

“Senate Democrats on Wednesday embraced a budget proposal that is significantly to the left of President Obama’s plan on raising new tax revenues,” The Hill writes. “The prospects of the blueprint passing the Senate are bleak, but its emergence after months of negotiation is aimed at countering GOP criticisms that Democrats haven’t passed a budget in two years. The budget plan would reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over 10 years, according to the baseline used by its author, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.). Using the benchmark assumptions of Obama’s fiscal commission, Conrad said his budget would reduce the deficit by nearly $5 trillion.”

Roll Call: “A flat-rate spending-cut plan advocated by tea partyers is gaining fans in Washington, D.C. The One Cent Solution requires Congress to reduce federal spending by 1 percent — one cent per dollar — of gross domestic product annually until 2018. That would take it from 25 percent of GDP to 18 percent, where it would be capped to balance the budget. … The 1 percent cut would be about $150 billion based on last year's GDP.”

“If President Obama should invoke a clause in the 14th Amendment in order to bypass Congress and borrow beyond the debt limit, at least one conservative Republican lawmaker would consider that an act worthy of impeachment,” The Hill writes. “Speaking at a Tea Party event in a suburb of Charleston, S.C., Rep. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said it would be an ‘impeachable act’ for the president to find a way around Congressional authority to raise the debt ceiling.”

NPR had a good segment yesterday breaking down the 14^th Amendment with George Washington University law professor Jeffrey Rosen. They looked at why it was crafted and the one Supreme Court case that deals with it at all: “There's just one Supreme Court case that seems to cast light on this question. It was called Perry versus United States,” Rosen said. “It was decided in 1935. And in that case, the Supreme Court seems to argue that this debt clause should be interpreted broadly rather than narrowly. And supporters are seizing on that language to say we should not construe the debt clause strictly, but instead, construe it expansively.”

He concludes: “We shouldn't for a moment dismiss the possibility that serious constitutional arguments about clauses that haven't thought of for a long time can transform political debates. In Bush v. Gore, in the healthcare argument, these are all cases where the constitutional arguments were made up on the fly. But that doesn't mean that they're not plausible. The truth is that the situation today is similar, although not identical to the one that confronted the nation right after the Civil War. And the arguments on both sides are strong, plausible and deserved to be debated in the public arena.”

“Congress spurred the Roger Clemens perjury trial, nearly scuttled it and will play a major role in the case against the baseball star,” The Hill writes. “The trial, which began with jury selection Wednesday in a federal court in Washington, centers on the former ace’s testimony to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee in February 2008.”

BACHMANN: Bachmann’s going up today with an ad its campaign says is a “substantial buy” in Iowa. The ad starts on pictures of Waterloo, IA, where Bachmann was born. Then Bachmann says to camera, per NBC’s Sarah Blackwill, “As a descendant of generations of Iowans, I was born and raised in Waterloo. As a mom of five, a foster parent and a former tax lawyer -- and now a small business job creator -- I know that we can't keep spending money that we don't have. That's why I fought against the wasteful bailout, against the stimulus. I will not vote to increase the debt ceiling. I’m Michele Bachmann, and I approve this message.”

The text on screen then is “Michele Bachmann for President. The unifying choice that will beat Obama. Ames Straw Poll August 13.”

Sen. Jim DeMint said yesterday on CNN that he’s “disappointed” that Bachmann has not signed the “cut, cap balance” pledge to cut spending and balance the budget.

PAWLENTY: Pawlenty’s campaign co-chair Vin Weber said that Bachmann would be “very hard to beat” in Iowa because… “She's got hometown appeal, she's got ideological appeal, and, I hate to say it, but she's got a little sex appeal too,” The Hill writes.

Gov. Pawlenty distanced himself from Weber’s statement, saying, “I don’t believe that he or anyone else should use a reference to somebody’s sex appeal to judge their fitness for office,” the Des Moines Register says. An apology from Weber was released by the Pawlenty press office.

Tim Pawlenty’s quiet swing through Florida last week paid off, as he got the endorsements of three top lawmakers including the incoming Florida House Speaker, Will Weatherford, the Miami Herald writes.

PERRY: Speaking on Fox Business Network yesterday, Karl Rove said he believed that Rick Perry would run for president, The Hill notes.

On a two-day trip to California, Perry held a series of private meetings and events with lawmakers, conservative activists and CEOs, the AP writes, “positioning himself as a champion of limited government, states' rights and low taxes as he edges toward a decision on whether to enter the 2012 presidential campaign.”

ROMNEY: Romney was raising money at a townhouse in London last night, telling reporters that he was in the city for meetings with officials, having met with former Prime Minister Tony Blair and his wife, as well as the minister of defense, Liam Fox, yesterday, the New York Times reports.

Romney released a list of supporters from Utah yesterday, which the Boston Globe writes is a tweak to Jon Huntsman which “helps underscore the simmering rivalry between the two, sons of prominent and wealthy Mormon families who once vied to lead those [Salt Lake City] Olympics.”

IOWA: Influential conservative Bob Vander Plaats will unveil a marriage pledge for 2012 candidates: "The Marriage Vow: A Declaration of Dependence Upon Marriage and Family," the Christian Broadcasting Network reports.

Per the Des Moines Register, “Bettendorf Republican John Archer has announced his intention to challenge Democratic U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District.”

MASSACHUSETTS: “Scott Brown plans to report raising $1.98 million during the second quarter of the year for his bid to win re-election as a US senator,” the Boston Globe says.

MICHIGAN: “Michigan Republicans are 5 1/2 weeks away from deciding whether to hold a presidential primary, caucus or convention next year, but a consensus has yet to emerge,” the Detroit Free Press writes. “The Michigan Republican Party's Policy Committee meets next week to weigh the options. It plans to recommend its choice by Aug. 1, said committee Chairman Mike Cox, the former attorney general.”